Monday, July 30, 2012

July 30 2012

Room server went down in the afternoon, but the whole second half pf the day was a waste of time anyway. Morning however was very good for us.



Session Time: Mon Jul 30 00:00:00 2012
[08:30] {dolores} hello guys GM
[08:37] {nemo} where are you dolores?
[08:37] {dolores} spain
[08:37] {dolores} mallorca
[08:38] {dolores} originally I am argentinian
[08:38] {nemo} life's tough...good afternoon
[08:38] {dolores} yes afternoon
[08:45] {cipher} gm/ga
01[08:50] {Threei}  morning
01[08:58] {Threei}  ES) According to think-tank Open Europe, a sovereign bailout of Spain is impossible, would cost up to �650B - Telegraph
01[08:58] {Threei}  - Sees Spain borrowing costs as unsustainable; Govt may be forced out of the private market for up to 3 years.
01[08:58] {Threei}  - Study suggesting between now and 2015, Spain has funding needs of �542B with banks requiring additional �100B.
01[08:58] {Threei}  (EU) Moody's: ECB alone cannot solve debt crisis in Europe
[09:01] {nemo} shaw
[09:01] {dolores} they are teating spain as greece
[09:02] {dolores} I don't think spanish economy is so bad as greece
01[09:02] {Threei}  probably not, but it's not about economy per se... it's more about indebtness level
[09:02] {jackharry} good morning
01[09:03] {Threei}  jack :)
[09:03] {dolores} if they can find a solution where we can have more normal rates to finance in the long term the debt will start coming down
[09:03] {dolores} hi jack
01[09:04] {Threei}  that'a the main question...
01[09:04] {Threei}  can they sustain financing at such low rates and for such long time that it'd allow Spaon to get from under the burden
[09:05] {nemo} news on shaw?
01[09:05] {Threei}  we may be talking about hundreds of billions in financing for decades
01[09:05] {Threei}  yes nemo
[09:05] {nemo} well?
01[09:05] {Threei}  to be acquired for $46
[09:06] {dolores} yes if we can bring the deficit down and start growing at least some percentage
[09:06] {dolores} then the indebtness lowers down
[09:06] {dolores} there is  alot of corruption going on as usual
01[09:06] {Threei}  sure... but they may not have enough money to do that if private lenders refuse to buy bonds
[09:07] {nemo} the EU will set up a "vehicle" print Euros and then buy up the bonds just like the Fed is doing to artificially prop up demand for the $
01[09:08] {Threei}  you can see that problems in eash successive country arise when they get shut out of private market by too high r\ates
01[09:08] {Threei}  that's the core question nemo
01[09:08] {Threei}  can they do what you just said or not
01[09:09] {Threei}  so far they couldn't
[09:10] {nemo} mmmhhhhh X double bottom on daily
01[09:11] {Threei}  but they sure as heck will try
01[09:11] {Threei}  inflation be damned, savers be damned
[09:12] {nemo} system doesn't care about individuals, only the system
01[09:12] {Threei}  so frikin true
[09:14] {scottie} gm all
01[09:14] {Threei}  scottie :)
01[09:22] {Threei}  a lot of cross-currents
01[09:22] {Threei}  can't tell the likeliest direction yet... although up feels a bit more probable
01[09:23] {Threei}  who remembers jf64, he asked to say hello
[09:23] {dino} gm
[09:23] {Will49} Gm all
01[09:23] {Threei}  dino, will :)
[09:23] {ese} gm...vad dino will
01[09:23] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:23] {dino} i remember, tell him hello back
[09:24] {RonS} gm, yes, ditto here...
[09:24] {ese} hmmmmm well hello to jf......i remember him
01[09:25] {Threei}  says trading goes well and to give thanks to the group
01[09:25] {Threei}  I'll tell him I am not a postman, so he comes in and says it himself
[09:27] {dolores} I will be out for a while be back later good r
[09:27] {dolores} trading
[09:27] {ese} cya D
[09:29] {dptl} gm
01[09:29] {Threei}  fp :)
01[09:29] {Threei}  CBI
01[09:29] {Threei}  SHAW takeover is not seen well for it
01[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FACX  .65 break hl
[09:32] {nemo} and the rally is on
01[09:32] {Threei}  FCX
01[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:33] {nemo} looks like the market believes in the bailout so far
01[09:33] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .30 break hl
01[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:35] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:36] {nemo} orly dino
[09:36] {nemo} not you Ron
01[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break hl
01[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:37] {Threei}  see ARCA bid?
[09:38] {cipher} s aapl 594.79
[09:39] {cipher} cov 595.30
01[09:39] {Threei}  I like them plunging faster after taking out such bid
01[09:40] {Threei}  let's trail to .76
01[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .73
01[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .65
01[09:43] {Threei}  SLW 1:1, half out
01[09:43] {Threei}  stop to .74
01[09:44] {Threei}  1/4 more out .88
01[09:44] {Threei}  stop to .79
01[09:44] {Threei}  out FCX
[09:44] {scottie} slw +.11 ty Vad
01[09:44] {Threei}  yw
01[09:44] {Threei}  out in full .95
01[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAS  .50 break hl
01[09:48] {Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:48] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAS  .40 break hl
01[09:49] {Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:49] {Threei}  whatever
01[09:49] {Threei}  lol
01[09:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[09:50] {Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:51] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:52] {thomcbell} lvs wow
01[09:52] {Threei}  Invalidated  IWM
[09:52] {cipher} CAT S .89
[09:53] {nemo} l tna .11
[09:53] {nemo} stop under .00
01[09:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .40 break
[09:54] {cipher} cov cat .85
01[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[09:54] {nemo} welcome aboard
01[09:54] {Threei}  target .65
[09:55] {nemo} 1/2 .25
01[09:55] {Threei}  half out
01[09:55] {Threei}  stop to .39
[09:56] {scottie} +.12 ty
01[09:56] {Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:56] {Threei}  .56
01[09:56] {Threei}  yw
01[09:56] {Threei}  stop to .44
[09:57] {nemo} 1/4 more .53
01[09:57] {Threei}  target hit, out
[09:57] {nemo} stop to .39
[09:58] {cipher} out iwm .68 thx
[09:58] {nemo} here we go
01[09:58] {Threei}  :)
01[09:58] {Threei}  reversal nailed to perfection
06[09:58] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a large dose of collegial smugness
[09:59] {nemo} well, keeping the KY right on the desk...it's coming sooner or later ;-)
[10:00] {nemo} out .69....mmmhhhh poetic
01[10:00] {Threei}  LVS
01[10:00] {Threei}  short time
01[10:00] {Threei}  38 break hl
01[10:00] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  38 break hl
01[10:00] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:01] {nemo} lvs two way me thinks
[10:02] {nemo} spy going again
[10:02] {nemo} l .06
[10:03] {nemo} stop under .00
[10:03] {nemo} partialed .13
[10:03] {nemo} free trade now
01[10:04] {Threei}  I run out of things to slap nemo woth
01[10:04] {Threei}  with
[10:04] {nemo} why.....?
01[10:04] {Threei}  or, pardon me: "with which to slap nemo"
[10:05] {nemo} I'm impressed
[10:05] {ese} L FCX .90
[10:06] {nemo} reloading lvs above .20 me thinks
[10:07] {nemo} look at this strength
[10:07] {nemo} into the drop
[10:08] {nemo} partialling second lot above .30
[10:08] {nemo} maybe not
[10:08] {nemo} that doesn't look good
[10:09] {nemo} I'll scratch this lot if it drops .20
[10:10] {nemo} see ya
[10:10] {nemo} stop on first lot under the tail
[10:10] {dolores} LVS against the market today
[10:10] {nemo} so far
[10:10] {dolores} Ƨmarket pullsback it goes up
[10:10] {dolores}  market reverses it goes down
01[10:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .90 break
01[10:11] {Threei}  If holds  .85
[10:11] {dolores} drunk to
[10:12] {dolores} in TZA
[10:12] {nemo} was trying spxu .96, didn't get it
[10:12] {nemo} just did
[10:13] {dolores} stop .84 right
[10:13] {nemo} out lvs
01[10:13] {Threei}  yes
[10:13] {ese} out fcx .96 +.06
01[10:13] {Threei}  targeting to sell first portion just under 18
01[10:13] {Threei}  and hold the remainder to 18 break
[10:14] {thomcbell} lvs bananas
01[10:14] {Threei}  that it is
01[10:16] {Threei}  half out
01[10:16] {Threei}  stop to .89
[10:17] {nemo} yeah I took .02 on spxu
01[10:19] {Threei}  ok... scalpers win
[10:20] {scottie} :sI partialled this time
[10:21] {nemo} Frickin' Les has his picture on his skype contacts sheet...oy vay
01[10:22] {Threei}  (US) Preview: July Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity expected at 10:30 ET
01[10:22] {Threei}  Consensus expectations: 2.0e v 5.8 prior
01[10:29] {Threei}  yikes
01[10:30] {Threei}  -13.2 vs 2.0E
01[10:30] {Threei}  "recovery summer" you say
[10:30] {dino} meli
[10:31] {dino} gap fill
[10:32] {dino} sm l .35
[10:34] {dolores} Dallas Fed Jul Business Activity -13.2 Vs Jun 5.8
[10:34] {dolores} that looks bad report
[10:34] {dolores} but...
01[10:34] {Threei}  dolores ignores me... et tu
[10:34] {dolores} sorry did nit read that one
[10:35] {dolores} saw the above one
[10:35] {dolores} my apologies
01[10:35] {Threei}  that's OK, most of the room has me on ignore
01[10:35] {Threei}  you just join their numbers :)
[10:35] {dolores} ok
[10:35] {dolores} will change that ASAP
[10:36] {cipher} tna l .10
[10:37] {cipher} out 1/2 .20
01[10:37] {Threei}  more jawboning:
01[10:37] {Threei}  (EU) Treasury Sec Geithner and Germany Fin Min Schaeuble hopeful for greater integration of the EMU; US and Germany to continue cooperation to push policy forward to stabilize the global economy- Calls for implementation of the EU reforms; international cooperation and coordination is needed
[10:38] {cipher} out in full .22
01[10:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  18 break
01[10:42] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[10:43] {nemo} GS very strong
01[10:43] {Threei}  yeah, look at the divergence between TZA and FAZ
01[10:44] {Threei}  one tests highs, another can barely keep its head above water
[10:44] {nemo} yeah, little guys are weak but financials kinda look like spy
[10:46] {dino} meli stopped -.36
[10:46] {dino} mdvn drop
[10:48] {nemo} cam short under .70
01[10:49] {Threei}  half out TZA
01[10:50] {Threei}  stop to .99
01[10:53] {Threei}  running at 100% today so far
[10:53] {nemo} 1/2 .57
[10:54] {nemo} stop to .72ish
01[10:57] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[11:02] {ese} L csco .06
[11:15] {RonS} cstr melting
01[11:17] {Threei}  out TZA .19
01[11:17] {Threei}  slept through first time I guess, lol
[11:18] {dino} watching that ron
[11:19] {dino} cstr, meli, awi, leco,
01[11:19] {Threei}  wow, too soon
01[11:22] {Threei}  grrr
[11:23] {dino} awi sm l .51
[11:24] {dino} leco sm l .99
[11:26] {scottie} yndx .75 ?
[11:27] {scottie} got away
01[11:27] {Threei}  not delighted anyway
01[11:27] {Threei}  a bit too narrow
[11:28] {scottie} ok
[11:29] {dino} out leco .35, +.36
[11:32] {cipher} +.24 leco thx dino
[11:33] {dino} gj
[11:34] {dino} awi no work, stop -.33
[11:35] {scottie} yndx thanks Vad
01[11:36] {Threei}  sure
01[11:37] {Threei}  Quiet Markets Ahead of Fed and ECB Meetings Later This Week
[11:40] {dino} awi sm l .05
[11:40] {nemo} iwm pivot is the low and spy pivot is .14
[11:41] {nemo} cat short below .40
[11:41] {nemo} watch for big bid to show up if it gets closer to .40
[11:43] {nemo} shrt cat .43
[11:43] {nemo} stop above .50
[11:44] {nemo} oh oh
[11:45] {thomcbell} Long setup - ARO 20.01 break if holding 19.90
[11:45] {thomcbell} cheat on 20.06 break
[11:45] {nemo} out
[11:46] {nemo} maybe a bit too tight for this time of day
[11:46] {dino} cstr sm l .00
[11:47] {thomcbell} target on ARO is 20.28
[11:53] {nemo} l tna .93
[11:53] {nemo} gpmma
[11:54] {nemo} gonna have to put in hard stops and partials, I might fall asleep
[11:54] {nemo} stop under .80
[11:56] {thomcbell} ARO 1:1
[11:57] {nemo} partial .02
[11:57] {nemo} stop is .89
[11:58] {nemo} .88
[11:58] {nemo} ish
[11:59] {thomcbell} aro 1:2ish
[11:59] {thomcbell} 1:2
[11:59] {thomcbell} lol
01[12:00] {Threei}  nice
[12:00] {ese} L csco avg .99
[12:00] {nemo} I'm out, think spy going to 138-138.15 or so
[12:02] {thomcbell} sold 1/3 aro at 20.20
[12:05] {thomcbell} out aro 20.24
[12:10] {nemo} took small long .92 tna
[12:10] {nemo} stop under .80
[12:14] {nemo} partialed .99, weird
[12:15] {nemo} summer lunchtime shenanigans
Session Close: Mon Jul 30 12:23:45 2012