Saturday, July 21, 2012

Nemo's Findings week of 7-22-2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now:  

The week that was:

  • with the SPY, that heavy confluence of Multi-time Frame Pivots kept the price action above the 135 level topping out within .25 of the Weekly R2 level. Notice the trend line from the October lowcoming into play just below the confluence
  • with the IWM, the Quarterly and Monthly Pivot confluence served as the relative floor for the week  with it basically hemmed between the two from noon 'til close on Friday.  Notice the trend line coming into play from the October low.

  • Given the renewed pressure from the European imbroglio markets dropped on Friday-or at least, that's what the headline writers write.  Drives me apeshit!  Anybody notice how seemingly bad earnings news was being bought for most of the week until Friday?  So, Friday profit taking would make sense.  Have a good week, lock in some profits going in to the weekend in case the fecal matter does hit the ventilator, and start again on Monday. Lather, rinse, repeat

  • Having said that, the dollar had quite a bounce north on Friday.  Pay attention though to the rising stories in the US about municipal bankruptcies...canary in the coal mine anybody?

The week ahead:

  •  Will the Confluence of Pivots hold.  Dunno...IWM is considered the "risk on" measure of the market.  With Spain's financing problems seemingly on the increase risk may not be in vogue next week.  If we go down, look for the 50 SMA and the rising 200 SMA to provide friction and support.  This week was a lower high of the most recent swing high from the June low.

  • QQQs double topped this week touching the yearly R2

  •  The confluence of pivots on SPY could provide some stickiness. Below them, the 50 SMA and the rising 200 SMA at 131.50ish
  • This week marked the current swing high from the June low

Oh, and this is my trading partner: