Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Sep 11 2012

Nice day with a few good trades including CLF 45 cents long;  this CAT trade on a short side for 1:3 made Catch of the Day though as setup is a typical one.

Session Time: Tue Sep 11 00:00:00 2012
[07:48] {nemo} Folks...I did a blog entry about yesterday's action
[08:50] {Threei}  (US) Moody's issues update on US Sovereign ratings: Budget negotiations are key to rating direction
[08:50] {Threei}  - Budget negotiations during the 2013 Congressional legislative session will likely determine the direction of the US government's Aaa rating and negative outlook, says Moody's Investors Service in the report "Update of the Outlook for the US Government Debt Rating. If those negotiations lead to specific policies that produce a stabilization and then downward trend in the ratio of federal debt to GDP over the medium term, the rating will likely be affirmed and the outlook returned to stable.
[08:51] {Threei}  - Moody's views the maintenance of the Aaa with a negative outlook into 2014 as unlikely. The only scenario that would likely lead to its temporary maintenance would be if the method adopted to achieve debt stabilization involved a large, immediate fiscal shock--such as would occur if the so-called "fiscal cliff" actually materialized--which could lead to instability. Moody's would then need evidence that the economy could rebound from the shock before it would consider returning to a stable outlook.
[08:53] {nemo} Hey Vad...that lecture is going to be videod, or aviod mpegiod.  Alex wants it...go figure
[08:54] {Threei}  one you give?
[08:54] {nemo} yes
[08:54] {Threei}  cool... looking forward
[08:56] {nemo} whether he'll let it see the light of day is another story, but I'll get a copy and I'll upload it to your site so you can see it
[08:56] {Threei}  ty
[09:03] {jackharry} good morning
[09:03] {Threei}  jack :)
[09:10] {goryl} gm all
[09:11] {Threei}  goryl :)
[09:15] {RonS} hello everyone
[09:15] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:15] {nemo} even me Ron?
[09:16] {dino} gm
[09:16] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:17] {scottie} gm
[09:17] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:17] {Will49} gm
[09:18] {Threei}  will :)
[09:18] {RonS} wow...unreal...JPM on the new iPhone:  The new iPhone sales could boost GDP by $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate. That is an increase of 0.33 percentage point in the annualized rate of GDP growth. It could be even higher, he says. Even a third of a percentage point would limit the risk the economy would grow more slowly th
[09:19] {RonS} grow more slowly than J.P. Morgan's fourth-quarter growth projection of 2%
[09:19] {Threei}  AAPL will save the world
[09:19] {Beau} good morning all
[09:19] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:19] {Threei}  meanwhile,
[09:20] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/g1y5w
[09:21] {RonS} all when the could be generating heat by tweeting on their new iphone...
[09:22] {RonS} said marie antoinette...
[09:23] {Threei}  yeah
[09:23] {Threei}  why don't we just increase the rate of churning those iphon models to add to GDP even more?
[09:24] {jackharry} Also on Greece - self employed evaded £22 billion (about $35 billion) in 2009, about a third of the country's deficit that year. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2201361/Shocking-scale-tax-dodging-bleeds-Greece-dry-Self-employed-fail-pay-22BILLION-2009--country-s-deficit.html
[09:25] {jackharry} evaded tax that is
[09:25] {robbers} China comes out with ripped version of iPhone 5, call it the iPhony.
[09:26] {Will49} :)
[09:26] {Threei}  lol
[09:28] {Threei}  http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2012/09/nemos-stream-of-un-consciousness.html
[09:28] {dino} lol
[09:28] {Beau} before we start the day, please take a moment and remember 9/11/2001
[09:30] {nemo} gmcr going for 33.50 today toda
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .75 break hl
[09:31] {ese} morning
[09:31] {Threei}  change to .70
[09:31] {Threei}  morning ese
[09:32] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:32] {ese} morning
[09:32] {nemo} l gmcr .46
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .15 break
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[09:33] {nemo} scratching
[09:33] {nemo} too old for that
[09:33] {nemo} whoa, good scratch
[09:33] {nemo} maybe not
[09:34] {dptl} gm
[09:34] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:35] {Threei}  for nemo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAAw05J-6ek
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .45 bresak
[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[09:36] {Threei}  1:1
[09:36] {jackharry} missed it
[09:37] {Will49} got .10 tks Vad
[09:37] {scottie} out .35 +.08, ty Vad
[09:37] {Threei}  yw
[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .10 break
[09:39] {Threei}  aww
[09:39] {Threei}  too fast
[09:41] {Beau} came back and got me at .12
[09:41] {Threei}  1:1
[09:43] {Beau} +.10 thanks vad
[09:43] {Threei}  :)
[09:43] {Threei}  Qihoo 360 Technology Company Ltd. Ticks higher on China blog report that says QIHU CEO has "hinted at possible collaborations with Google, Microsoft and local rival Sogou"
[09:44] {Threei}  QIHU
[09:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .65 break
[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[09:46] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  CLF  .95 break hl
[09:49] {Threei}  offer 1 st prtial here
[09:49] {ese} in .96
[09:49] {Threei}  stop to .94
[09:49] {Threei}  second here
[09:49] {Threei}  .28
[09:50] {ese} out .31
[09:50] {Threei}  FCX stop to .69
[09:50] {Threei}  wtg ese
[09:50] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:50] {ese} thank YOU vad
[09:50] {Threei}  welcome sir
[09:50] {ese} saw that last little push and hit the sell
[09:50] {Threei}  out in full .40
[09:51] {ese} nice yourself
[09:51] {scottie} fcx +.10 thanks Vad
[09:51] {goryl} fcx
[09:52] {Threei}  yw
[09:52] {Threei}  where is dolores, she loves CLF trades
[09:53] {ese} ok whats up with the mrkt.......why the push here
[09:53] {Threei}  no news
[09:53] {ese} egggggzactilly
[09:53] {nemo} Range run
[09:53] {Threei}  everyone tries to frontrun tomorrow's German court
[09:53] {nemo} IWM bottomed yesterday at the close at MR1, bought support going to resistance
[09:54] {nemo} Financials closed just off MR1
[09:55] {nemo} also SPY closed just above price and Semesterly support, there were alot of significant levels at which price action closed yesterday
[09:55] {nemo} I posted it this morning
[09:58] {ese} lots of things confounding me these days.......not sure why that German court decision should have that much of an effect on the market.........it's pretty much a done deal anyway
[09:59] {Threei}  well, imagine what happens if they say no
[09:59] {Threei}  my bet is, -500 points DJI, probably more
[10:00] {ese} i guess.........ya gota figure though that they will stay polically neutral don't ya think..........
[10:00] {robbers} Third option:  I think there's an appeal process that'll delay the final decision.  Euro never met a can they didn't want to kick further down the road.
[10:01] {Threei}  if they do, they judge by purely constitutional motives
[10:01] {ese} lol
[10:01] {dino} they should use rule of law ese, but most likely will not
[10:01] {ese} ain't that the truth
[10:01] {Threei}  are you that confident that ECB bind buying is constitutional by German law?
[10:01] {dolores} hello I am late
[10:01] {dolores} didm i miss much CLF?
[10:02] {Threei}  too bad dolores... missed a few good ones, including your favorite CLF
[10:02] {ese} like the united nations..............they've never met a massacre they didn't like
[10:02] {dolores} well...
[10:03] {dolores} got 14 cents just now!
[10:03] {dolores} but small amount
[10:03] {dolores} this thi ng can go to 42'
[10:03] {dolores} ?
[10:03] {Threei}  we grabbed it under 41
[10:04] {ese} correction.........vad grabbed it under 41.....we tagged along
[10:04] {dolores} nice
[10:04] {nemo} gmcr at support
[10:04] {dolores} on what all this movement?
[10:05] {Threei}  FCX two-sided, .50 - .80
[10:05] {Threei}  .70 - .80
[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: PAY  .60 break
[10:08] {Threei}  hl
[10:08] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:13] {dino} unfi sm l .01
[10:13] {dino} out unfi .38, =.38
[10:13] {dino} +.38
[10:13] {nemo} should retest the highs at a minimum dino
[10:13] {dino} 56?
[10:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  QIHU  24 break hl
[10:14] {nemo} 55.25
[10:14] {nemo} thats right near a retrace level too
[10:14] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:15] {dino} sm l .01
[10:19] {dino} out unfi .38, +.37
[10:21] {Threei}  no go QIHU
[10:23] {dolores} PAY holding
[10:23] {Threei}  yeah, locked
[10:23] {Threei}  not anymore
[10:24] {Will49} PAYnful
[10:26] {dino} wtf unfi
[10:26] {Threei} Short Setup: LLY  .50 break
[10:27] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[10:27] {nemo} breaks this high look for 57.80
[10:29] {Threei}  NYSE volume 125M shares, about 18% below its three-month average; a. - NASDAQ volume 340M shares, about 6% below its three-month average
[10:31] {nemo} sp looks like it might pop
[10:33] {Threei}  LLY has nice room for movement
[10:33] {Threei}  let's try to cover first part closer to .40, like .42
[10:34] {Threei}  and see if we can ride the rest to about .30
[10:34] {nemo} arguably bull flags on the indexes
[10:34] {robbers} Where's nemo, beautiful cascade chart.
[10:35] {nemo} ?
[10:35] {robbers} Thought you and Three joke about cascade?
[10:35] {Threei}  nemo is an object of finding
[10:35] {nemo} I did, last weeks entry
[10:36] {dino} cov lly .44, ty vad
[10:36] {Threei}  :)
[10:36] {Threei}  ese play...
[10:36] {Threei}  10K shares, 5 cents :)
[10:36] {dino} indeed
[10:39] {thomcbell} long setup aig 32.96 break if holding 32.85
[10:41] {Threei}  half out .42
[10:44] {Threei}  stop to .51 of course
[10:44] {Threei}  wow... Morgan Freeman facebook deat hoax
[10:44] {Threei}  I guess Thomas Jefferson was right when said in his blog you can't believe everything you read on Internet
[10:46] {Will49} lol
[10:47] {Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): Not at all confident that the US can avoid the fiscal cliff
[10:49] {ese} am outta here cya tomorrow....vad thanks for the clf trade
[10:49] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:51] {dolores} how was the call for CLF?
[10:51] {dolores} 1.3?
[10:51] {Threei}  09:48] {Threei} Long Setup: CLF .95 break hl
[10:51] {Threei}  [09:50] {Threei} out in full .40
[10:51] {Threei}  [09:52] {Threei} where is dolores, she loves CLF trades
[10:52] {dolores} nice
[10:52] {nemo} clf gonna' go again
[10:55] {nemo} interesting, just like yesterday, SPY and IWM were moved separately
[10:57] {dino} centa sm l .50
[10:58] {dolores} out LLY
[11:00] {nemo} cat
[11:01] {nemo} mmmhhhh GS still at the top of it's run, court will vote for the ECB
[11:02] {nemo} cat consolidates a little here, nice break play
[11:06] {RonS} someone needs to make centa nickla or dime-a...
[11:06] {thomcbell}  i am looking for 33.30 on aig
[11:06] {thomcbell} almost touched 1:1
[11:07] {thomcbell} feel like buyers very much in control - just a huge print of stock
[11:10] {dolores} CLF on its way to test 45
[11:10] {dolores} maybe not today but
[11:12] {dino} lrn drop
[11:13] {thomcbell} aig 1:1
[11:14] {RonS} LRN negative piece by TheFinancialInvestigator. Key warning: "steps to revoke the school’s charter will begin"
[11:14] {dino} ty
[11:14] {RonS} http://www.thefinancialinvestigator.com/?p=816
[11:14] {Threei}  nice move AIG
[11:14] {dolores} LLY about to test hgihs
[11:14] {dolores} slowly creeping up
[11:15] {RonS} nutz...PPO
[11:18] {goryl} Vad, or any of the seasoned veterans here, being a newbie, what should I focus on in order to build my analytical skills.  Obviously, Vad's trades are phenomenal but i want to build my confidence.  Any words of wisdom?:) What should i do for the first few months etc..
[11:18] {Threei}  IMO, don't overcomplicate or overanalyze it,
[11:19] {goryl} I know, that's my problem:)
[11:19] {Threei}  watch every tradem recognize every setup, make sureyou undrstand reason for a trade,
[11:19] {Threei}  and in a while you'll start seeing them
[11:19] {Threei}  this is how it happens, folks follow the trades and internalize the patterns,
[11:19] {Threei}  and in a few months I see them starting spotting trades on their own
[11:21] {dino} keep it simple goryl. my system is extremely basic
[11:22] {dolores} goryl I would advice read the whole website and listen to the interview
[11:23] {dolores} and study the videos
[11:23] {Threei}  and drink
[11:23] {dolores} explaining the diferent set ups and trades
[11:23] {goryl} :) i got that covered
[11:23] {Threei}  I mean, keep yourself hydrated
[11:23] {Threei}  :)
[11:26] {nemo} GS just keeps going up
[11:27] {goryl} i've read 111 trades twice and watched "How to Scalp.." videos so i'm pretty familiar with the setups.
[11:28] {Threei}  I need to go over all that stuff too... people say it's good
[11:29] {dolores} LLY short?
[11:29] {dolores} .60?
[11:30] {Threei}  market is so stubbornly strong, I am hesitant to short
[11:30] {dolores} ok
[11:30] {nemo} I don't see weakness yet
[11:41] {nemo} we haven't closed the 15 minute bar yet, but spxu might be worth a small starter position here
[11:42] {dptl} pay .50 short?
[11:42] {nemo} yep
[11:43] {Threei}  a bit too narrow today
[11:44] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  89 break
[11:44] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[11:46] {nemo} .16 stop for me
[11:47] {Threei}  target 1:3
[11:49] {nemo} mmmhhhh....maybe GS got an update
[11:49] {Threei}  1:1
[11:49] {scottie} covered .88 +.10 ty
[11:50] {Threei}  yw
[11:50] {Will49} yes....10 also tks
[11:54] {dptl} stop to .01?
[11:54] {Threei}  of course
[11:54] {Threei}  or as tbell would say, obviously
[11:54] {Threei}  1:2
[11:55] {Threei}  stop to .91
[11:55] {Threei}  obviously
[11:56] {dptl} out ty
[11:56] {Threei}  what the deuce... no one goes for the full target
[11:57] {Threei}  come on CAT, hit 1:3 so all the whimps and pesky scalpers cry
[11:57] {Threei}  1:3 baby
[11:57] {Threei}  out in full
[12:03] {Threei}  so, now no one is talking to me, eh? Mom told me don't win every time, no one will come out to play with you next dasy
[12:03] {Threei}  visual: http://goo.gl/6Tuqw
[12:07] {thomcbell} i sold 1/2 aig 33.11
[12:07] {thomcbell} stop to 33 on balance
[12:12] {nemo} bounce time
[12:13] {thomcbell} 1:2 AIG
[12:18] {dptl} deck short?
[12:19] {Threei}  worth a try but don't count on much
[12:21] {dptl} lol offering .19 and got 1 share
[12:22] {Threei}  told you, don't count on much {GGG}
[12:23] {dptl} .30 stop
[12:23] {Threei}  hey, with 1 share why not live it dangerously and put stop at .25
[12:24] {dptl} .25?
[12:24] {Threei}  .35
[12:24] {dptl} oh....
[12:25] {dptl} i'll keep it at above .30
[12:30] {dino} internet went down
[12:32] {Threei}  yikes
[12:42] {dptl} how about joy .55 short?
[12:43] {Threei}  yes... if you are cruel enough to short JOY
[12:43] {dptl} above.65 stop
[12:44] {dptl} in
[12:46] {Threei}  DP The KillerJoy
[12:47] {thomcbell} for those of u long aig - i would sell another 1/4
[12:47] {dptl} bidding .41
[12:47] {dino} dp, nice spot joy
[12:48] {dptl} ty
[12:50] {thomcbell} stop to 33.14 on aig balance
[12:52] {thomcbell} out aig
[12:53] {dino} cmp drop
[12:54] {dptl} out deck here
[12:54] {dptl} +.15
[12:54] {Threei}  nice
[12:55] {dptl} oops....too soon lol
[12:55] {dptl} wow look at that
[13:03] {dino} cmp sm l .25
[13:09] {dptl} hes .40 break long?
[13:10] {dptl} or .30 short ? may be
[13:11] {Threei}  hmmm
[13:11] {Threei}  long etup is better pronounced
[13:11] {Threei}  but market drops
[13:11] {Threei}  I'd play long if market reverses, and skip short
[13:11] {dptl} ok
[13:16] {Beau} off to doc.  have fun rest of day.
[13:17] {Threei}  take care beau
[13:25] {dptl} did't move with market hes
[13:32] {dino} feels like august afternoons are still here, barely any movement
[13:32] {nemo} frickin' krauts
[13:33] {dino} starting to wonder if volume ever gets back up
[13:34] {dino} my 07 scanner is just clunking along, usually it runs smoothly, just not much movement
[13:36] {dino} unfi sm l .11
[13:40] {dptl} fslr .75 short?
[13:41] {Threei}  nah
[13:43] {dptl} how about coh .70 long?
[13:44] {Threei}  yes
[13:44] {dptl} in
[13:44] {Threei}  looks good to above .90
[13:47] {nemo} vmw showing capitualtion volume
[13:48] {nemo} s .45
[13:48] {nemo} small
[13:48] {nemo} gawd I feel like Dino
[13:48] {nemo} stop above the high
[13:48] {dptl} half out
[13:49] {dino} gold, rgld drop
[13:50] {nemo} mmmmhhhhhh...what would Dino do?
[13:51] {dino} eat his chicken wings
[13:51] {nemo} ahhhh....don't have any
[13:52] {nemo} nyse on bid and offer, hate that
[13:53] {nemo} liking this
[13:54] {dino} gj vmw
[13:54] {nemo} partial .21
[13:54] {nemo} your play
[13:54] {dino} you went off volume spike, right?
[13:54] {nemo} yes, 4 minutes worth
[13:55] {nemo} out above .40
[13:56] {dolores} CLF Same movement as yesterday
[13:56] {dolores} drops fast and FCX holds
[14:14] {scottie} Answered your question goryl, sorry for delay
[14:15] {Threei}  don't believe him goryl, he intentionally ignored you to enjoy the torture
[14:15] {Threei}  nemo imprinted his life views on all of us
[14:16] {scottie} Ahhh, you spoiled the secret
[14:17] {Threei}  sorry... I enjoy spoiling secrets too, and it's again nemo's fault
[14:17] {goryl} no prob:) see you all tomorrow
[14:18] {scottie} bye
[14:18] {Threei}  take care goryl
[14:21] {dino} cmp to .66
[14:24] {dino} cmp to .80
[14:26] {dptl} pay .55 short?
[14:27] {Threei}  I think so
[14:27] {dino} to .90 cmp
[14:28] {dptl} with stop above.60?
[14:29] {Threei}  couple cnts more
[14:31] {dino} to .95
[14:33] {dino} wtf major slip out cmp .86, +.61
[14:49] {dolores} anything new?  nas red !
[14:49] {nemo} frickin' groundhog day
[14:51] {dino} out centa flat, all day for nothing
[14:55] {Threei}  very nice day so far, let's see if we can get last hour play
[14:57] {dptl} anf .95 long?
[14:58] {Threei}  late
[14:58] {dptl} missed
[15:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
[15:00] {Threei}  If holds  84
[15:00] {dptl} clf .40short may be?
[15:01] {Threei}  yup, half lot
[15:01] {dptl} stop?
[15:01] {Threei}  target about .20 - .25 CLF
[15:02] {Threei}  above .5-0
[15:02] {dolores} out IWM
[15:03] {Threei}  1:1 CLF
[15:04] {dolores} too soon saw that 83.99 and sold
[15:05] {Will49} yeah..me too D
[15:05] {scottie} same thing here D
[15:05] {dolores} well makes me feel better
[15:05] {Will49} hair trigger
[15:05] {dolores} thought was my mistake
[15:06] {scottie} What do you say Will? "misery loves company"
[15:06] {Will49} that three of us did it...still too quick, no?
[15:07] {Will49} yeah scottie...as D says, makes you feel at least that you're not too far off base
[15:07] {Will49} either we're all slow learners or this is the path that most follow
[15:08] {Will49} what say ad?
[15:08] {Will49} ad?
[15:08] {Will49} Vad
[15:08] {Threei}  I don't know what to say... we spoke of this like 10 times already... :)
[15:09] {Will49} I type like I trade:D
[15:09] {Threei}  I may just as well copy that text ans paste it every time
[15:09] {Will49} now , now Vad
[15:09] {Will49} be gentle
[15:09] {Threei}  me? gentle?
[15:09] {Threei}  nemo won't ever speak to me again
[15:10] {Threei}  thick stock, a lot of liquidity, tight stop... why sell on first 100 shares print?
[15:10] {Threei}  why not give it a few seconds to make sure stop is really getting hit
[15:10] {Will49} where have I heard that before?
[15:10] {Threei}  really {G}
[15:11] {Threei}  you may alsoe have heard this:
[15:11] {Threei}  this is exactly why I hate automated stops
[15:11] {Threei}  they do not have this discretion
[15:11] {Will49} getting something through my thick skull takes time
[15:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .50 break
[15:12] {Threei}  hl
[15:12] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[15:13] {dptl} anf 36 long?
[15:14] {Threei}  not sure, a bit too narrow
[15:16] {Threei}  market doesn't look like rewarding longs
[15:16] {Threei}  maybe misreading it...
[15:19] {Threei}  no go
[15:19] {nemo} Groundhog day
[15:29] {nemo} arguably tna above .20
[15:31] {scottie} good night all, see you tomorrow
[15:31] {Threei}  take care scottie
[15:31] {Will49} see ya brother
[15:31] {dino} cya
[15:36] {nemo} look at the pummeling the $ took and the market can't rally....
[15:37] {dptl} coh short ?.25?
[15:37] {Threei}  I think so
[15:37] {dptl} .36 stop
[15:38] {dptl} in small
[15:39] {dolores} ok guys see you tomorrow
[15:39] {dolores} thks
[15:39] {dolores} take care
[15:40] {dptl} ahh stopped
[15:40] {Threei}  take care dolores
[15:41] {dptl} gn all
[15:41] {Will49} cy dp
[15:42] {dino} cya
[15:51] {Will49} bye dino...live to fight another day
[15:52] {Will49} 10-4 all
[15:52] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:52] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:54] {dino} thx all, gn