Monday, November 26, 2012

Nov 26 2012

Quiet low volume day, slightly positive after two back-to-back 1:2 wins at the end of the day.

Session Time: Mon Nov 26 00:00:00 2012
[09:01] {scottie} good morning
01[09:02] {Threei}  morning scottie
01[09:06] {Threei}  some finally start admitting that debt that can't be repaid, won't
01[09:06] {Threei}  "But last Tuesday Lagarde... insisted, creditor countries would have to forgive the government in Athens a large share of its debt. "Nothing else will work," Lagarde said.
01[09:16] {Threei}  (GR) Germany Dep Fin Min Kampeter: 16 Euro members have rejected the OSI debt writedown for Greece, not just Germany in opposition- No need for additional Greek austerity measures - Euro currency will continue to exist in 5 year time
01[09:16] {Threei}  hmmm... this is interesting bet to take
[09:17] {thomcbell} FB
01[09:17] {Threei}  just won't quit, eh?
[09:17] {thomcbell} big respected firm upgrade - Bernstein 
[09:17] {thomcbell} said all the right things 
[09:17] {thomcbell} $23 to $33 based on monetizing mobile and revenue growth 
01[09:18] {Threei}  that's wide range
01[09:18] {Threei}  one thing may work against it all - its users come to hate it
01[09:19] {Threei}  if credible alternative appears, FB may find itself facing Myspace fate... the place emptied almost overnight
[09:19] {Beau} good morning
01[09:19] {Threei}  Beau :)
[09:20] {Will49} gm
[09:20] {cipher} gm
01[09:23] {Threei}  will, cipher :)
[09:29] {Les} hi
01[09:29] {Threei}  les :)
01[09:29] {Threei}  FB on watch for pullback
01[09:29] {Threei}  long entries for now on it
[09:30] {thomcbell} pullback from 24.82 went to about 24.64
01[09:31] {Threei}  SLW for long too
01[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .80 
01[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .95 break
01[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[09:35] {Threei}  half out SLW .04
01[09:36] {Threei}  FB 1:1
[09:36] {thomcbell} jpm very weak
[09:37] {thomcbell} big FB offers right at 25 
01[09:37] {Threei}  SLW, scalpers win
01[09:37] {Threei}  FB should take it easily
[09:37] {nemo} spy chopping
[09:39] {Les} faded slw long .98 cover half .90
[09:39] {thomcbell} $25.05 ish was pre-market high on FB
[09:40] {nemo} deck
01[09:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  RG  .50 break hl
01[09:40] {Threei}  grrr.. late
01[09:41] {Threei}  RIG that was
01[09:41] {Threei}  (CA) Canada Fin Min Flaherty to hold new conf at 10:30ET; no topic announced
[09:41] {Les} 1:2 slw full cover continue on paper
01[09:42] {Threei}  movie review I assume
01[09:42] {Threei}  SPY looks a bit psychotic today
01[09:43] {Threei}  FB should be good for 1:5
[09:44] {scottie} FB went down to .87, I got out at .88 !
01[09:44] {Threei}  1:2
[09:44] {scottie} What did I do wrong ?
01[09:44] {Threei}  nothing really, it was a discretionary moment
01[09:45] {Threei}  it dove so fast and bpunced back so furiously
01[09:45] {Threei}  often can be discounted as accidental move
[09:45] {nemo} slw above .85
01[09:45] {Threei}  1:3
[09:46] {nemo} fb may close the gap and go momo should hold a piece
01[09:46] {Threei}  look at it this way:
01[09:46] {Threei}  1:4
01[09:47] {Threei}  there are rules, and there is experience that helps you decide when the rules can be broken
[09:47] {thomcbell} nice freakin job Bad
01[09:47] {Threei}  in absence of that exprience, follow thwe rules
[09:47] {thomcbell} Vad
01[09:47] {Threei}  it takes time
[09:47] {nemo} slw 1:1
01[09:47] {Threei}  ty
01[09:48] {Threei}  out in full
01[09:48] {Threei}  .36
01[09:48] {Threei}  almost 1:5
[09:48] {cipher} wtg
01[09:48] {Threei}  ty
[09:49] {nemo} another entry fb above .40
[09:49] {Will49} nice call Vad
01[09:49] {Threei}  not sure about that one nemo... becomes a little hysterical
[09:49] {scottie} Nice call should've stayed in
01[09:49] {Threei}  can go either way, and fast
[09:49] {Will49} me too
[09:49] {nemo} yeah, it's gonna momo to the gap
[09:50] {nemo} those long tails below, they're trying to whack stops
[09:50] {nemo} they drop out right to the same level
[09:51] {nemo} wow, that's amazing
[09:52] {nemo} that's some funny action
[09:52] {Les} crap pulled out after .05 with those funny tails
[09:53] {Les} my p&l was telling me I was .35 in the red
[09:53] {cipher} s fb .80
[09:53] {Will49} tks nemo +.35
[09:54] {cipher} cov .70
[09:54] {thomcbell} the guy with the upgrade is about to go onto Bloomberg radio sortly
[09:54] {thomcbell} shortly
[09:54] {thomcbell} if he qualifies comments it could be a decent retrace
[09:54] {cipher} my p&l is off too
[09:55] {cipher} but only while pos is on
[09:55] {cipher} then it recalculates
01[09:56] {Threei}  only on FB btw
[09:56] {cipher} yes
01[09:56] {Threei}  there was some interruption in its vhart
01[09:56] {Threei}  chart
01[09:56] {Threei}  while Level 2 and T&S remained fine
[09:57] {cipher} charting couldn't keep up
[09:57] {scottie} Same here
01[09:58] {Threei}  nice top nail cipher
[09:58] {cipher} yeah but chickened out
01[09:58] {Threei}  can't blame you
01[09:59] {Threei}  these thing are like freight train
[09:59] {cipher} yep
01[09:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .70 break
01[10:00] {Threei}  no go
01[10:00] {Threei}  SPY another spasm
01[10:03] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  44 break
01[10:03] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[10:03] {cipher} cat l .49
[10:04] {cipher} out 1/2 cat .60
[10:05] {cipher} out in full .68 
01[10:06] {Threei}  nice
01[10:06] {Threei}  I was looking at it a few times, never saw entry to call
01[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .70 break
01[10:09] {Threei}  LVS is valid
01[10:10] {Threei}  FB stop .76
01[10:10] {Threei}  let's keep it tight
01[10:11] {Threei}  better be live chicken than dead lion
[10:11] {Will49} :0
[10:12] {Will49} :)
01[10:12] {Threei}  half out FB
01[10:12] {Threei}  stop .72
01[10:13] {Threei}  scalpers win
01[10:13] {Threei}  tough thing to short
01[10:14] {Threei}  LVS stop .06
[10:15] {Les} l tza .15 stop below .10
01[10:15] {Threei}  1:1
01[10:17] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM said to need a decision on the loan tranche today; Govt may collapse if an agreement is not reached on the �31.5B
01[10:18] {Threei}  collapse already please
[10:18] {Will49} could be Zorba's last dance
01[10:18] {Threei}  now, fate of EU seems to be dependent on the size of bladders:
01[10:18] {Threei}  Eurogroup to take 1 hour break for technical work before returning to meetings on Greece
[10:19] {Les} stop flat spy looking long
[10:23] {Les} indexes holding on by skin of their teeth
01[10:25] {Threei}  LVS is ready for second leg
[10:27] {nemo} this is long setup spy iwm, gonna' test the other side of the rainge soon
[10:27] {nemo} range
[10:27] {nemo} iwm may drop to .33ish
[10:28] {Will49} is LVS two-way?
01[10:28] {Threei}  ?
01[10:28] {Threei}  it's not a new setup
01[10:29] {Threei}  continuation of the short from 44
[10:29] {Will49} tks
[10:30] {thomcbell} short setup FIO 24 break 
[10:30] {thomcbell} if holding 24.10
[10:42] {thomcbell} fIO invalidated
[10:50] {thomcbell} FB very impressive 
01[10:54] {Threei}  48% Think New Tax Money Will Go to New Programs, Not Deficit Reduction
01[10:54] {Threei}  duh
01[10:55] {Threei}  stranger things may have happened but not often: Pravda published article in which it accuses America of being run by communists
[10:57] {Les} takes one to know one
01[10:57] {Threei}  that was my first thought
[10:57] {nemo} yeah saw that and of course coming from them it must be the "Truth"
01[10:58] {Threei}  article overall is bs, and full of bs, but one phrase in it rings true
[10:58] {nemo} Obama is a communist?
01[10:58] {Threei}  no, lol
01[10:59] {Threei}  President Vladimir Putin could never have imagined anyone so ignorant or so willing to destroy their people like Obama much less seeing millions vote for someone like Obama. They read history in America don't they?
[10:59] {nemo} no
01[10:59] {Threei}  During the time of the Soviet Union the role of the state in economy was made absolute, which eventually lead to the total non-competitiveness of the economy. That lesson cost us very dearly. I am sure no one would want history to repeat itself.
01[11:00] {Threei}  then again, in the next breath he says:
01[11:00] {Threei}  Honesty and hard work, responsibility and faith in our strength are bound to bring us success.
01[11:00] {Threei}  which coming from him is beyond funny
01[11:02] {Threei}  grrr LVS
01[11:02] {Threei}  did you have to rinse second half before dropping?
[11:02] {Les} LVS - "yes"
01[11:03] {Threei}  this market drop is tough to play... those guys with small bladders return from their break and announce Greece deal, you don't want to be caught short
01[11:03] {Threei}  they say "no deal today," you don't want to be long
01[11:04] {Threei}  so, gotta wait a little
01[11:05] {Threei}  meanwhile, since I had enough time to work with photos and catch up with my backlog, a few to look at:
01[11:05] {Threei}
01[11:05] {Threei}
01[11:05] {Threei}
[11:05] {Les} show em the hotel with the swiss flag
01[11:05] {Threei}  in third link... but you need an eye exam {G}
[11:14] {scottie} ANN s .70 ?
01[11:14] {Threei}  yup, nice setup
01[11:15] {Threei}  and if they postpone decision once again (which is most likely outcome) while trade's in progress, it should be gold
[11:18] {nemo} spxu argualbly long on drop of the low, to retest Friday lows
[11:18] {cipher} +.07 ann thx scottie
[11:19] {nemo} also arguably long here two way
[11:19] {nemo} spy that is
[11:19] {scottie} yw cipher
[11:22] {nemo} I'm seeing alot of red stocks, and the indexes aren't dropping, so they may be using the futures to hold up the indexes
01[11:23] {Threei}  you mean THEY
[11:23] {nemo} of course
01[11:24] {Threei}  EU Budget Is Not Likely to Be Finalized in 2012
[11:24] {nemo} btw...watched the movie "Network" last night, hadn't seen it in a Vad's-age.  What a great movie
[11:25] {nemo} the dialogue is fantastic
01[11:25] {Threei}  what's with socialists not having budgets on both sides of the paddle?
01[11:25] {Threei}  even USSR had them (misreable as they were)
[11:25] {nemo} 5 year plans
01[11:25] {Threei}  US President Obama reportedly to name Elisse Walter as new SEC Chairperson
01[11:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .95 break
01[11:38] {Threei}  If holds  ,85 
01[11:42] {Threei}  target 1:3
01[11:42] {Threei}  should break 26 and, ummm... iksplode
[11:43] {Will49} I hopzo
01[11:46] {Threei}  (US) President Obama and House Speaker Boehner were said to have spoken by phone to discuss the fiscal cliff this weekend - financial press- Staff negotiations are said to have continued this weekend as well, talks going slowly. ***Reminder: On Nov 25th, Sen Durbin (D-IL) said that little progress toward resolving fiscal cliff was made over the prior 10 days while Congress was off session
01[11:52] {Threei}  can't tell whether it's losing drive or it's simply a low volume pullback
[11:54] {cc_8} Zhongpin (NASDAQ: HOGS) shares moved up 15.38% to $12.53 at 10:30 am. The volume of Zhongpin shares traded was 1928% higher than normal.
01[12:00] {Threei}  stop
01[12:08] {Threei}  rinse... can't believe it
[12:11] {thomcbell} Hey VAd if it was easy everyone would trade for a living 
01[12:11] {Threei}  oh
[12:11] {thomcbell} hehehe :(
01[12:11] {Threei}  I never thought of it this way
01[12:11] {Threei}  {GGG}
01[12:18] {Threei}  I am willing to give it one more chance
01[12:18] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  26 break
01[12:26] {Threei}  Invalidated  
01[12:28] {Threei}  - Concerns about the fiscal cliff are trumping strong holiday spending this morning. Yesterday key Demcratic Senator Durbin commented that little progress was made toward resolving fiscal cliff during Congressional recess over the past 10 days.
01[12:28] {Threei}  - FX markets have been relatively quiet during as participants await news from the latest Eurogroup meeting on Greece. Achieving debt sustainability for Athens is the continuing goal, although opinions are mixed as to whether a deal is possible today. The current Greek government may fall if a deal is not reached.
01[12:29] {Threei}  may we be so lucky
[12:37] {thomcbell} lvs really got its footing 
01[12:46] {Threei} Short Setup: ALK  .40 break hl
01[12:46] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
01[12:57] {Threei}  sigh
01[12:57] {Threei}  action stopped
[13:00] {scottie} EBAY l .60 ?
01[13:00] {Threei}  short side looks better to me
[13:00] {scottie} ok
01[13:01] {Threei} Short Setup: MHP  .50 break hl
01[13:11] {Threei}  (GR) ECB said to be open to idea of re-accepting Greek govt bonds as collateral if the Greece aid tranche is approved - financial press- ECB also said to be considering options helping Greece reduce its funding gap, including the idea of a Greek bond rollover and buyback, or using investment portfolio profits to buy Greek bonds
01[13:13] {Threei}  France Industrial Min Montebourg said that the government is working on a temporary nationalization of MT's steelworks Florange and said it does not want to see Mittal continue operations in France. ArcelorMittal and the French government have been at odds for months over the company's plan to shut down two blast furnaces in Florange
01[13:13] {Threei}  nice
01[13:13] {Threei}  1:1
01[13:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  LOW  .20 break
01[13:23] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
01[13:23] {Threei}  if loses .15, rather look for aggressive entry
01[13:23] {Threei}  around .10
01[13:26] {Threei}  (GR) IMF said to be seeking EMU cut to Greece debt of approx 20%/GDP immediately, with additional cuts at a later date - financial press
01[13:27] {Threei}  isn't it funny... they seek toforgive Greece debt in order to be able to give it more loans
01[13:27] {Threei}  I presume to forgive them too later
01[13:28] {Threei}  all the while Germany says our parlament won't allow it
[13:30] {nemo} verdammten Kreuter
[13:36] {nemo} if aapl breaks to new highs, indexes likely have a prty
[13:41] {scottie} FL l .85 ?
[13:42] {scottie} late
01[13:42] {Threei}  if pulls back to around .80, secondary entey
[13:44] {scottie} in .86
[13:47] {scottie} tears over ebay
06[13:48] * Threei passes scottie a tissue
01[13:48] {Threei}  don't hold the whole box though, O need some too
[13:48] {scottie} should be more confident with my setups
01[13:48] {Threei}  O=I
01[13:49] {Threei}  FL works
[13:50] {scottie} half out
[13:50] {nemo} iwm and spy long here
[13:52] {scottie} out in full
01[14:06] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .90 break
01[14:08] {Threei}  formed top, formed descending channel.. if this is not a short, I dunno what is
01[14:09] {Threei}  jeez, will, stop feeding that cat, it'll never leave
01[14:09] {Threei}  A cougar sighting in James Bay this morning... police are patrolling the area
[14:10] {Will49} They sighted my wife
[14:10] {Will49} gotta keep her in the house
01[14:14] {Threei}  change FB to 26 break
01[14:17] {Threei}  (US) President Obama to meet with corporate CEOs on Wed, Nov 28th to discuss budget issues - financial press ***Note that Obama and various CEOs met two weeks ago to discuss the impact of the fiscal cliff.
01[14:17] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Optimistic a deal can be reached to avert the fiscal cliff; urges House to pass Senate tax-cut bill - Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY): Focus of budget talks must be on cutting spending, Republicans are open to new revenue with the promise of entitlement reform
01[14:23] {Threei}  give me 1:3 FB
01[14:30] {Threei}  1:1
[14:47] {Les} news JPM?
01[14:49] {Threei}  nothing fresh
01[14:49] {Threei}  looks to me long on .60 break
[14:51] {Les} l tna just noticed the finnies lagging
01[15:09] {Threei}  JPM 1:1
01[15:11] {Threei}  anyone's breathing?
[15:12] {cc_8} yes
[15:12] {Will49} barely
[15:12] {scottie} no
[15:12] {Les} considering it
[15:12] {Will49} kind of a breatless day
[15:12] {Will49} breathless
[15:13] {Will49} might also be a breastless day
01[15:14] {Threei}  hmmm
01[15:14] {Threei}  I refuse to have this kind of day
[15:14] {Will49} lol
01[15:14] {Threei}  1:2 FB
01[15:15] {Threei}  with these two life becomes better
01[15:17] {Threei}  how considerate: Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood calls off Tuesday demonstration in support of President Morsi to avoid clashes
01[15:25] {Threei}  oh well, no 1:1
[15:25] {scottie} out fb, took +.10 and +.20, tks Vad
01[15:25] {Threei}  :)
01[15:48] {Threei}  come to 1:2 JPM
01[15:50] {Threei}  good boy
01[15:50] {Threei}  out in full
[15:50] {Les} IWM HoD
[15:51] {Will49} CU L8TR guys
01[15:52] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:52] {Les} ciao will
01[15:52] {Threei}  have a good evening
01[15:52] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:52] {Les} cheers
[15:52] {scottie} gn