Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Oct 07 2014

Somewhat unusual day. Wins and losses, as far as odds are concerned, are not always evenly distributed, they can go in clusters. That's normal but today was somewhat of an aberration as we had two large and very defined clusters. Morning was marked by mostly stops, and in the afternoon we got 8 wins in a row, erasing morning losses and going into profitable territory. End result is what matters but I'd still prefer more smooth curve :) 

Ahead of the Close Market Snapshot

US Indices:
- Dow Jones -1.4%
- S&P500 -1.3%
- Nasdaq -1.4%

- "One step forward / two steps back" has been the trend over the past couple weeks. Industrials are leading the decline, followed by healthcare, services, and tech. Utilities are still the safe-haven with marginal gains.

Fixed-Income: Worries about the upcoming earnings season and a steady rise in volatility is shifting investor funds from equities to bonds in a big way. The Vix is near its 2014-highs approaching 17 level, while the 2-10 spread has also narrowed to approach its lowest level of the year. In European periphery, Greece 10-yr is another 21bps on top of the 11bp increase overnight.
- US 2-yr: -3bps at 0.50%
- 10-yr: -7bps at 2.35%;
- 30-yr: -7bps at 3.05%;
- 2-10 spread: -4bps at 1.84%

- WTI Nov crude oil down about 20c to $88.74, approaching last week's lows just above $88 level; Short-term Outlook from EIA projecting "household expenditures for natural gas, heating oil, electricity, and propane to decrease this winter heating season compared with last winter, which was 11% colder than the previous 10-year average nationally."

- Spot Gold $1,210/oz; Up for 2nd straight day and biggest 2-day increase since June 17-18th.
- Spot Silver $17.17/oz, retreating after testing a 1-week high around $17.60
- Dec Copper $3.03/lb; Flat despite the broad risk-off flow after a brief dip below $3.02 in early trade

Earnings at the close:

Looking ahead to Asia:
- Shanghai Composite returns for trade
- Japan Current Account / Trade Balance (19:50ET)
- China HSBC Services PMI (21:45ET)


Session Time: Tue Oct 07 00:00:00 2014
[09:19] {troub} good morning
[09:19] {cosmo} so far...
01[09:19] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:20] {@Threei}  cosmo channeling nemo
[09:20] {cosmo} hmm
[09:20] {RonS} gm...the horror...
01[09:21] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:21] {cosmo} should i call my life coach?
[09:21] {jfjf64} morning all
01[09:21] {@Threei}  jf :)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  beter fire him
[09:21] {cosmo} her
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ISR +25% (detailed successful use of Cesium-131 in stereotactic implant for inoperable brain cancer)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EFOI +20% (won $7.9M order from the US Navy)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -GSAT +8.5% (statement in response to Kerrisdale Capital presentation)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -CAMP +7% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -SIMO +7% (raised Q3 Rev guidance)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -OXGN +5% (presenting Phase 2 GOG1861 study at the Biennial meeting of the International Gynecological Cancer Society)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -FEYE +5% (launches mobile protection app for AAPL iOS, OS X, Android & MSFT mobile devices)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -CBK -23% (cuts Q3 Rev guidance)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EZPW -17% (cuts Q4 guidance to below prior range)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -SODA -17% (prelim Q3 op income $8.5M)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -TCS -15% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -AGCO -8.3% (guides Q3 EPS $0.60-0.65 v $0.82e; cuts FY14 guidance)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -BBEP -5% (prices 14M shares at $18.64/shr)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -KCAP -4.3% (priced 3M shares of common stock)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -QRE -3.6% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -LVS -3% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  SODA onteresting but spread is rather for dino
01[09:32] {@Threei}  so's LVS
01[09:33] {@Threei}  starts tightening though
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:35] {@Threei}  not ready yet
[09:35] {jfjf64} vxx
01[09:35] {@Threei}  LVS nice recovery
[09:41] {dino} gm
01[09:41] {@Threei}  watching FB for pullback entry
01[09:41] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  change to .10
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  77
01[09:46] {@Threei}  SPY can't find footing
[09:46] {nemo} between gap @.38 and .48
01[09:47] {@Threei}  a lot of struggle
[09:47] {nemo} alot of bad news
01[09:49] {@Threei}  half out FB
01[09:49] {@Threei}  stop to .04
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:52] {@Threei}  finally... lid is off
01[09:58] {@Threei}  dino, watching SODA?
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) OCT IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 45.2 V 45.1E
01[10:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .65 break hl
01[10:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[10:05] {@Threei}  meh
01[10:07] {@Threei}  rinse... grrr
[10:07] {dino} i will 3i, r.e. sidetracked, have few minutes now
01[10:11] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .40 break
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:14] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:25] {nemo} no weighty stocks on algo, and barely anything...looks choppy for awhile
01[10:27] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[10:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:29] {@Threei}  grr
[10:33] {nemo} LYB
[10:33] {nemo} oops late
[10:34] {nemo} Seller at 100
01[10:35] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .20 break
01[10:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[10:38] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:44] {RonS} bbby
01[10:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .85 break
01[10:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[10:48] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .70 break
01[10:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:53] {@Threei}  did it touch 1:1 or was that out of bounds print?
01[10:53] {@Threei}  took my eyes off for a sec
[10:55] {nemo} looks like indexes might want to test vwap
01[11:03] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .35 break
01[11:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[11:08] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:11] {dino} .
01[11:13] {@Threei}  valid again
01[11:17] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:19] {dino} gj
01[11:19] {@Threei}  ty... something should start worjking sooner or later :)
01[11:26] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 breeak
01[11:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[11:33] {@Threei}  nah
01[11:36] {@Threei}  or yes
[11:41] {nemo} bounce here to vwap
[11:45] {dino} added some ccl calls
01[12:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .35 break
01[12:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[12:10] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:12] {@Threei}  again
01[12:12] {@Threei}  same setup
[12:15] {nemo} could make an argument for spy short here
[12:16] {nemo} however lunch time, low volume could easily push it back to morning highs
01[12:17] {@Threei}  yeah, up seems to be the way to go
[12:18] {nemo} the spy high is the weekly pivot
[12:18] {nemo} see all those tails last few minutes
01[12:22] {@Threei}  everything just a scalp
01[12:22] {@Threei}  gotta take off whole thing at 1:1
[12:22] {nemo} narrow range day
01[12:24] {@Threei}  hmmm... third time? :)
01[12:32] {@Threei}  another scalp
[12:40] {nemo} ahh, see the short to VWAP came through
01[12:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
01[12:40] {@Threei}  this time should be it
01[12:42] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:44] {nemo} you take it all at 1:1? ;-)
01[12:44] {@Threei}  yeah
01[12:45] {@Threei}  everything is a scalp
01[12:50] {@Threei}  this time I might regret it
01[13:00] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:05] {@Threei}  1:3
01[13:05] {@Threei}  grrr
[13:33] {nathan} hi gents
01[13:33] {@Threei}  hi nathan
01[13:33] {@Threei}  FB death
01[13:33] {@Threei}  watching for another short
01[13:39] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  77 break
01[13:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[13:40] {@Threei}  .10 was the best entry but missed it
01[13:43] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:44] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:47] {@Threei}  closed balance on a trail
01[14:08] {@Threei}  [HLF] Fox News's Gasparino: Herbalife is telling investors that the FTC will not shut down the company, expects some form of disciplinary action - tweet ***Chatter regarding potential FTC action against the company circulated after HLF hired Pamela Jones Harbour as Compliance and Privacy President. Harbour was a former FTC commissioner.
01[14:08] {@Threei}  (US) Texas Health Officials: The Dallas Ebola patient remains in critical condition, continues to receive Chimerix's experimental treatment, Brincidofovir **Note: On Oct 6th, officials said the Dallas Ebola patient was receiving CMRX's drug Brincidofovir
01[14:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[14:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[14:28] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:29] {nathan} wow
01[14:30] {@Threei}  1:2
01[14:30] {@Threei}  day becomes brighter and brighter
[14:33] {dino} gj
01[14:35] {@Threei}  ty
[14:36] {nathan} great trade 3i
[14:36] {nathan} how did u "know" it was ready to explode? what was the clues?
01[14:37] {@Threei}  no clues, didn't "know"
01[14:37] {@Threei}  just a valid setup
01[14:38] {@Threei}  come on nathan, you know how we trade :)
[14:38] {nathan} :-)
[14:38] {nathan} trade waht u c not what u think
[14:38] {nathan} ;-)
01[14:38] {@Threei}  find anyone who claims he "knew" and there were secret clues, and I 'll show you an idiot or a fraud
[14:38] {nathan} hehehehe
[14:39] {nathan} spy looks like 2botton
[14:40] {nathan} time to short vxx?
01[14:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[14:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[14:51] {@Threei}  stop to .84
01[14:51] {@Threei}  1 cent to 1:1
[14:58] {nemo} indexes looking short
[14:59] {nemo} think 194 test coming
[15:06] {nemo} aapl looks like spy
[15:13] {nathan} today's a great example about how to spoil a day because of the greed
[15:13] {nathan} i had a day done to later...
[15:13] {nemo} nah...it's a great day because ese isn't here
[15:13] {nathan} hehehe
[15:14] {nathan} cya tomorrow
[15:14] {nemo} vaya con burro
[15:14] {RonS} ...piece of work...
[15:15] {nemo} de nada
[15:15] {RonS} lol
[15:15] {nemo} might be a puke day
[15:16] {nemo} just realized, I feel remarkably good for a Tuesday
01[15:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .30 break
01[15:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[15:33] {dino} xiv sm l .01
01[15:33] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:39] {@Threei}  last scalp I guess
01[15:39] {@Threei}  or double bottom for another one,...
01[15:41] {@Threei}  tough call
01[15:41] {@Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .20 break
01[15:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[15:44] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:45] {@Threei}  ok, closed on a trail
01[15:46] {@Threei}  good afternoon, erasing morning stops and then some
01[15:46] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:46] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:53] {dino} i think we are negative on markets 10 of last 13 days
[15:54] {@Threei}  yup