Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Oct 08 2014

One of three winning calls this morning.

(Chart courtesy of a broker)

With a few more nice juicy wins including 1:5 on JCP short after that, gotta qualify this day as the best this week so far.

End result: with 1:3s and 1:4 all over, this is officially the best trading day of the year. 
Ahead of the Close Market Snapshot
Wed, 08 Oct 2014 15:57 PM EST

US Indices: Cash equity markets are in a broad-based rally mode, with the biggest 1-day advance of the year. The losses of the past 2 days have been erased, as the Fed minutes showed increasing concern with strong USD weighing on growth.

- Dow Jones +1.7%
- S&P500 +1.7%
- Nasdaq +1.9%

The typically defensive Utilities and Healthcare sectors are leading the charge, adding to morning gains after the Fed minutes. Financials were also relatively strong, while Basic Materials are lagging the broader rally.

Fixed-Income: Expectations for the first Fed rate hike are being pushed further out into 2015 following the release of the latest FOMC minutes from the Sept 17th meeting. Minutes showed increasing concern over the strength of the US dollar, shortfall in economic growth and eurozone inflation, as well as slowdown in China/Japan and geopolitical risk in Ukraine/Middle East. Couple participants have also expressed worries over the adverse effect of stronger USD on achieving the 2% inflation target. The short end of the curve has rallied considerably and widened the 2-10 spread, while the long bond is actually down slightly.

- US 2-yr: -5bps at 0.45%
- 10-yr: -2bps at 2.33%; lowest since Aug 28th
- 30-yr: +2bps at 3.07%; first rise in 4 days
- 2-10 spread: +3bps at 1.88%

- WTI Nov crude oil $87.50; WTI front-month briefly fell to its lowest levels in about 15 1/2 months below $87, but has pared its gains amid softer USD post Fed minutes. Rising perception of disinflation, slower global growth, and large inventory builds in API and DOE inventories in the past 24 hours have been attributed to continued pressure in the energy space

- Spot Gold $1,219/oz; Up just over 1% or $13 following the release of less hawkish Fed minutes
- Spot Silver $17.37/oz; Up about 1.5% or 27c following the release of less hawkish Fed minutes
- Dec Copper $3.02/lb; Briefly fell below $3.00 in early afternoon trade before bouncing to finish at the highs.

Key Earnings at the close:
- Alcoa (AA) just after the close

Looking ahead to Asia:
- Japan Machine Orders 19:50ET
- Australia Employment 20:30ET

Session Time: Wed Oct 08 00:00:00 2014
[09:19] {jfjf64} mornin
01[09:19] {@Threei}  jf :)
[09:20] {troub} good morning
01[09:20] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -GTAT +24% (momentum from rumors AAPL providing DIP financing that will leave APPL owning GTAT's physical assets)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -CMRX +5.8% (Phase 3 Brincidofovir shows potential survival benefit in adenovirus infection)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -SYMC +5% (rumors company considering splitting into 2 - dividing into security & storage units)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -LGND +2.6% (guidance)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -COST +2.5% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -ATEN -10% (guidance)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -ICPT -5.8% (not releasing OCA FLINT study data at AASLD as expected)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -SAP -3.5% (CFO planning job freeze until 2015 amid business development concerns; Q4 pipeline less than expectations
[09:25] {nemo} look for spy 193 test.  Monthly S1 level is 193.15
[09:25] {ese} gm
01[09:26] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:26] {nemo} So, I found out why our electric rates got jacked so much:
[09:27] {nemo} So, I get to pay 37% more a month
[09:28] {RonS} time to go to war on Vermont and annex them...
[09:28] {RonS} an insufferable state anyway...
[09:29] {nemo} Massachusetts is worse, trust me
[09:30] {RonS} noone as sanctimonious as Vermont...
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .30 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:36] {jfjf64} you go 3i
01[09:36] {@Threei}  so early in the morning, more like crawl
01[09:37] {@Threei}  or go by inertia... you left yesterday just when we started a string of 7 or 8 wins in a row, lol
[09:38] {jfjf64} I saw
01[09:38] {@Threei}  so I might just roll still...
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:3
[09:38] {jfjf64} got little smashed up earlier
01[09:39] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  change to .50 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:40] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:43] {dino} xiv sm l .90
[09:43] {ese} frickin computers
[09:43] {nemo} IWM SPY Finnies likely going to pivots
01[09:43] {@Threei}  and scentedf candles... hate those
01[09:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: RIG  .80 break
01[09:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:46] {nemo} that's not at zero yet?
01[09:46] {@Threei}  soon
01[09:46] {@Threei}  oh sorry ese, you referred to dosconnection... I thought we were just airing random grievances
[09:47] {ese} lol
[09:47] {nemo} oh, good it's working..I spoof his IP address using HFT code
01[09:47] {@Threei}  lol
[09:48] {ese} THANKS!!!!!!
[09:48] {nemo} FB again
[09:49] {nemo} you can always move to Moscow
01[09:49] {@Threei}  stop .96
01[09:49] {@Threei}  .86
[09:49] {nemo} short .60 stop .70
[09:50] {nemo} arguably two way
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:52] {nemo} 1:1 FB
[09:52] {dino} xiv stop -.21
[09:53] {nemo} do or die for FB here
[09:53] {nemo} 1:2
[09:53] {nemo} 1:3
01[09:53] {@Threei}  wtg
[09:53] {nemo} if it stays under .45 could test lows
01[09:53] {@Threei}  perfect call, precise and setup is well defined double top
01[09:54] {@Threei}  1:3  RIG
01[09:54] {@Threei}  my a$$ is out
[09:54] {nemo} she's going lower it looks like
[09:54] {jfjf64} spy wants low
[09:55] {nemo} yep
[09:55] {dino} gj vad
[09:55] {jfjf64} only 10 am
[09:55] {jfjf64} whooooo!!
[09:56] {nemo} stop to .45
01[09:56] {@Threei}  let's go home?
[09:56] {jfjf64} or make fun of nemo all day
[09:56] {nemo} you really want to motivate me to come and find you
[09:57] {jfjf64} lol
[09:57] {nemo} ask Vad about my "friends"
01[09:58] {@Threei}  those with unnaturally long hands?
01[09:59] {@Threei}  wow RIG, had more in it
[09:59] {nemo} well, they have an unnaturally long reach
[09:59] {dino} gwph getting smoked
[10:00] {dino} gwph smr l .33 pulp type
[10:00] {RonS} lol...mary jane stock
[10:01] {RonS} UK cost agency rejects British company GW's cannabis drug
[10:02] {dino} ty
[10:03] {nemo} 193 test
[10:04] {nemo} could bo back to .50 area, but would expect stop hunt below 193 first
[10:05] {nemo} no surprise nothing but red on algo, biggest player red is GOOG
[10:05] {nemo} AIG
[10:05] {nemo} PRU
[10:05] {nemo} all red
[10:08] {nemo} VWAP .40ish
[10:08] {dino} out gwph .43, +.08
[10:08] {dino} .10
[10:08] {dino} damn
[10:08] {nemo} nothing really big is red on algo, this is a weak down move
[10:12] {dino} sndk sm l .33
[10:12] {dino} hclp sm l .53
[10:12] {nemo} red really shutting off
[10:13] {dino} athm sm l .35
[10:13] {dino} .39
[10:17] {dino} out hclp .90, +.37
01[10:20] {@Threei}  gj
[10:23] {dino} hclp sm l .50
[10:23] {nemo} red expanding
[10:24] {nemo} 192.50ish has monthly support and daily S1
[10:24] {nemo} on SPY
[10:24] {dino} hclp stop -.32
[10:25] {dino} hclp sm l .10
[10:27] {dino} sn sm l .40
01[10:28] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .15 break
01[10:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .22
[10:30] {nemo} MNST
[10:30] {nemo} Dino type
[10:38] {dino} whippy day
01[10:41] {@Threei}  FB got away
01[10:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
[10:48] {nemo} market bottoming
01[10:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[10:49] {nemo} I think floor between 192.40-.50
01[10:50] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:53] {nemo} algo still adding in red
01[10:56] {@Threei}  wow FB
[10:56] {nemo} algo getting redder
[10:58] {nemo} red heavy and no real price drop...they're trying to bottom
[10:58] {nemo} .38-.50ish support
01[11:06] {@Threei}  one more pullback, and if holding the low I will be interested in bounce play
[11:07] {nemo} that should be bottom
[11:07] {nemo} would expect a test though
[11:07] {dino} emes wow
[11:09] {ese} whats the story with that one dino
01[11:10] {@Threei}  [GTAT] Apple comments on recent bankruptcy filing at GTAT; was a surprise decision that was designed to preserve jobs at their plant in Arizona - press - Apple notes that it will work with officials to consider the next steps- note: Earlier today tech blogs noted that Apple had withheld the final $139M payment to GTAT for unknown reasons (of total $578M promised contract)
[11:11] {dino} emes sm l .54
01[11:13] {@Threei} Short Setup: JCP  .70 break
01[11:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[11:14] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:15] {@Threei}  1:2
[11:15] {dino} gj
01[11:15] {@Threei}  ty
[11:15] {dino} every bounce gets sold
01[11:15] {@Threei}  will try for 1:5
01[11:16] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:16] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  . 85 break
01[11:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[11:18] {@Threei}  1:1  IWM
[11:19] {nemo} I think economic situation and Ebola risk setting in
[11:19] {nemo} that first US patient died
[11:19] {nemo} airlines cruise lines should all get hit
[11:20] {RonS} don't tell dino...
[11:20] {dino} i heard
01[11:20] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:21] {@Threei}  some days are created for trading
[11:21] {jfjf64} you go 3i
01[11:22] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:22] {@Threei}  out
01[11:22] {@Threei}  idea to wait for pullback and buy double bottom was the safest way to play bounce
01[11:23] {@Threei}  now JCP... die more
01[11:24] {@Threei}  1:4 IWM
[11:25] {jfjf64} boom
01[11:26] {@Threei}  1:4 JCP
01[11:26] {@Threei}  1:5
01[11:26] {@Threei}  I am out
[11:27] {jfjf64} let me buy ya shot of vodka
[11:27] {jfjf64} nice job
01[11:27] {@Threei}  ty
[11:33] {RonS} bot hclp 40.75 ave out 41.45 +.70 full lot thanks dino
[11:33] {dino} ok, took me awhile, but got a nice one, out emes 26, +1.70
[11:35] {RonS} dino, you tracking the /cl with these plays?
[11:37] {dino} ?cl?
[11:38] {RonS} oil futures...
[11:38] {RonS} it is the driver
[11:40] {dino} no was watching uso
[11:41] {RonS} you can do it here:
01[11:41] {@Threei}  in my quotes, CL is Colgate-Palmolive :)
[11:41] {RonS} the USO is a blend of futures contracts and gets screwed up...
[11:41] {RonS} that's why it's /cl
01[11:42] {@Threei}  WTI crude is making fresh 16-month lows this morning after dropping into the $87 handle on deepening concerns about global demand. Last night the weekly API inventory report saw surprising gains in crude and gasoline inventories, with crude seeing its highest weekly build since April. Additionally, analysts suggested that the Saudi Arabia price reductions out last week were aimed at boosting refinery margins in Asia and were not the opening move in an OPEC price war.
01[11:43] {@Threei}  Homeland Security has ordered agents at airports to implement measures to observe everyone coming into the US for potential signs of Ebola infection.
[11:44] {RonS} see if wearing a sign?
01[11:44] {@Threei}  lol
[11:45] {dino} lol
[12:02] {dino} emes sm l .78
[12:13] {dino} out hclp .32, +1.22
[12:15] {RonS} gj
[12:16] {dino} ty
[12:28] {nemo} spy broke trend line
[12:28] {nemo} finnies at trend
01[12:55] {@Threei}  ugh
01[12:55] {@Threei}  thought of shorting HLF, haven't found guts
[12:56] {dino} gota hop, thx all and gl. holding some small longs overnight
[12:56] {nemo} wuss
01[12:57] {@Threei}  take care dino
[12:57] {dino} ty, u2
[12:57] {nemo} Achtung Baby
[12:58] {dino} salute
[12:58] {nemo} Jawohl!
[13:02] {RonS} watched Inglorious Basterds again...Tarentino is a trip...and Brad Pitt looked like he had a blast playing that part...loved the accent "nattzies"
01[13:02] {@Threei}  my least favorite of his movies...
[13:03] {RonS} need to think of it in comic book style...or pulp novel
01[13:06] {@Threei}  that niche is taken by Pulp Fiction and Kill Bill... kind of hard to compete with those two :)
[13:12] {RonS} Rodriguez brothers alter ego to Tarantino and unbelievably more hard core...
[13:14] {RonS} ...what was that movie where Jessica Alba was the stripper and turned into a serpent monster?...blew my mind...
[13:15] {RonS} went from goddam she is hot to wtf?
[13:21] {nemo} that happens to most women over time
01[13:27] {@Threei}  lol
[13:28] {nemo} oh shit FOMC minutes
[13:57] {nemo} iwm last one to pivot
01[14:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  HLF  .60 break
01[14:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[14:07] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:09] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:09] {nathan} hi all
01[14:09] {@Threei}  hey nathan
01[14:10] {@Threei}  1:3
01[14:10] {@Threei}  1:4
01[14:10] {@Threei}  out
01[14:11] {@Threei}  Oct 8, I officially nominate thee the best trading day of the year
01[15:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[15:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .48
01[15:22] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:23] {@Threei}  1:2
[15:23] {nemo} spy almost through the gap
[15:26] {jfjf64} you go 3i
01[15:27] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:27] {@Threei}  I am telling you..
[15:38] {jfjf64} gotta go great day ty
01[15:38] {@Threei}  :)
01[15:38] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:38] {@Threei}  see you tomorroq
01[15:38] {@Threei}  w