Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Dec 17 2014

Very nice trading session once again, even though it was FOMC day. Handled it just right

[08:58] {dino} gm 3i
01[08:59] {@Threei}  morning dino
[09:04] {JoebiWan} gm
01[09:05] {@Threei}  jw :)
[09:05] {dptl} gm
01[09:07] {@Threei}  dp :)
[09:14] {RonS} hi guys
01[09:14] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:16] {@Threei}  EU voted against tagging Canadian oil "dirty"
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -ASPX +82% (positive topline results from Phase 3 trial of SD-809 in Huntington's disease)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -VOLC +55% (agrees to acquisition by Philips for $18/shr)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -DRIV +49% (amended distribution agreement with MSFT; go-shop period with Siris Capital ended)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -CERS +19% (FDA approved first pathogen reduction system to treat plasma)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -APP +16% (named Paula Schneider CEO, terminated Dov Charney)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -ICLD +13.3% (backlog of over $32M)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -POZN -13% (received response letter with additional questions preventing the NDA approval for YOSPRALA81/40 and 325/40)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -FDX -3.6% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -DEO -2.3% (Thanksgiving sales disappointing)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:34] {@Threei}  change to .35
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:37] {@Threei}  .50 break should catapult it
01[09:37] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:39] {@Threei}  closed
[09:43] {dino} c sm s .48
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:47] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:50] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .75 break
01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[09:51] {@Threei}  ugh
01[09:57] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .80 break
01[09:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:59] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:02] {@Threei}  closed
[10:02] {dptl} ty
01[10:02] {@Threei}  yw
01[10:08] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[10:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[10:09] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:10] {dino} vc stop
[10:12] {RonS} vc? the message said c fwiw
[10:13] {dino} typo, was supposed to be vc
[10:13] {nemo} Viet Cong?
[10:14] {nemo} Crude @10:30
[10:14] {RonS} u warning us of an unseemly comment?
[10:15] {nemo} where's ese, need a rim shot
01[10:15] {@Threei}  lol
[10:17] {nemo} LVS
[10:17] {nemo} EXPE
[10:20] {dptl} luv .50 break short if holds .60
[10:27] {dptl} invalidated
01[10:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VLO  .60 break
01[10:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:29] {nemo} oil numbers
01[10:30] {@Threei}  *(US) CRUDE: -0.85M V -2ME, GASOLINE: M V +2ME, DISTILLATE: M V +1ME
01[10:30] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:30] {nemo} vlo looks like spy
[10:42] {cosmo} I think drillers might likely bottom before oil itself.... i think
[10:43] {nemo} depends on their debt level
[10:44] {nemo} if oil keeps going lower, less drilling.  If  a driller is overextended debt wise and can't service it....oops
[10:44] {nemo} minor detail
[10:44] {cosmo} lots of sub-prime junk there too
[10:44] {nemo} Russia in it's entirety
[10:44] {cosmo} esp for frackers
[10:45] {nemo} there's no economy there...just an resource exporting oligarchy
[10:45] {cosmo} yea...oops
[10:45] {nemo} can you say "1998"
[10:51] {cosmo} it was a good year to trade...
[10:52] {nemo} bad year for markets when Russia defaulted...may be repeating that if oil goes much lower
[10:54] {cosmo} that's up to Saudi, no?
[10:55] {cosmo} has been so far...
[10:56] {cosmo} they didn't cut production as usual
01[10:56] {@Threei}  good for them
[10:56] {cosmo} as they usually do i mean
01[10:56] {@Threei}  they see that this time IS different
[10:57] {cosmo} yep
01[10:57] {@Threei}  sell your oil while there is a byter
[10:57] {cosmo} well put
01[10:58] {@Threei}  ok... buyer :)
01[11:03] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .70 break
01[11:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[11:05] {RonS} mcd news?
01[11:05] {@Threei}  MCD Pershing's Ackman: Cannot comment on rumors about a stake in MCD
[11:06] {RonS} saw that...that's news? sheesh
01[11:06] {@Threei}  well, MCD went up sharply yesterday on rumor of a stake by major investor
01[11:07] {@Threei}  so this one plays out against that background
01[11:07] {@Threei}  [HLF] Claims Formula 1 Nutritional Shake Wins Product of the Year Award in Russia - Claims was honored with the Product of the Year award for its Formula 1 Nutritional shake in the category of Efficient Weight Management Nutrition at a recent ceremony in Moscow, Russia.
[11:08] {RonS} vodka infused?
01[11:08] {@Threei}  with Putin's torso on a label
[11:09] {RonS} lol
[11:09] {RonS} agio spike
[11:12] {dptl} hal watching for .60 break long
01[11:15] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:17] {dptl} hal invalidated
[11:23] {RonS} someone likes gramma
[11:28] {dptl} long hal on pullback here
[11:28] {dptl} .54 stop
[11:29] {dptl} nope out
[11:34] {RonS} lol... Obama to name Cosmo Kramer ambassador to Cuba? Find out at noon!
01[11:34] {@Threei}  he surely liked those cigars
[11:36] {RonS} …and a woman is only a woman, but a good cigar is a Smoke.
[11:39] {RonS} +1353 tick...very unusual for a fed day
01[11:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .60 break
01[11:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[11:45] {nemo} XOP up almost 8%
[11:49] {dptl} bhp 46 break short
[11:54] {dptl} ok its about time twtr
01[11:54] {@Threei}  US equity indices are shooting higher this morning and European markets have regained losses to close at their highs. Crude prices are up on the session and the Russians seemed to have arrested the plunge in the ruble for the moment. Now all eyes are on the Fed decision later today.
01[11:55] {@Threei}  Attention shifts from Russia and crude today over to the Fed decision and Chair Yellen's post-decision press conference. Many analysts think today will be the day the Fed drops the considerable time language from its policy statement. And even if it does not, it will likely indicate the key phrase is on its way out by introducing an alternative.
01[11:56] {@Threei}  The ruble has regained some strength this morning after two days of nightmarish moves. USD/RUB has declined to around 60 after topping out yesterday at 78.60 on reports that the Russian government and the Russian Central Bank have worked out a strategy for girding the currency, although it remains unclear exactly what Moscow is planning.
[11:59] {dptl} held .70...3 times noe
[11:59] {dptl} now
[12:07] {dptl} you still in Vad right?
01[12:08] {@Threei}  yes
01[12:08] {@Threei}  falling asleep though
[12:09] {dptl} damn it....out
01[12:09] {@Threei}  nah, out
01[12:09] {@Threei}  jeez
01[12:09] {@Threei}  dp...
01[12:09] {@Threei}  it's just a stop... in the middle of another good day
01[12:10] {@Threei}  after two very strong days in a row
[12:10] {dptl} i am not having good day again today
01[12:10] {@Threei}  you have some kind of "set frustration mode upon awakening"
01[12:11] {@Threei}  well, then this is what you better focus ohn - why on earth are you not having good day when calls are profitable
01[12:11] {@Threei}  what about yesterday?
01[12:11] {@Threei}  how in the world can you not be in plus with today's calls?
[12:12] {dptl} was up  2 twtr stops one twtr flat, 2fb flat,2 bhp stops
01[12:13] {@Threei}  want to compare that with calls?
01[12:13] {@Threei}  try and figure out why the difference?
01[12:13] {@Threei}  did you not swear stop trying taking your own calls until you sort this out?}
[12:14] {dptl} well thats it stop even looking now.
01[12:15] {@Threei}  09:57] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR .80 break
01[12:15] {@Threei}  [09:57] {@Threei} If holds .90
01[12:15] {@Threei}  [09:59] {@Threei} 1:1
01[12:15] {@Threei}  [10:01] {@Threei} 1:2
01[12:15] {@Threei}  [12:12] {dptl} .today 2 twtr stops one twtr flat
01[12:15] {@Threei}  explain this to me??
01[12:16] {@Threei}  [11:03] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR .70 break
01[12:16] {@Threei}  [11:03] {@Threei} If holds .80
01[12:16] {@Threei}  [11:15] {@Threei} 1:1
[12:16] {dptl} acualy, yes that one i got, but scrude up a bit on exit so realy got 1:1 on whole
01[12:16] {@Threei}  shrug
[12:16] {dptl} that one was really flat to me, i got that one
01[12:17] {@Threei}  let's talk about FB? I have 1:2
01[12:17] {@Threei}  you: 2fb fla
01[12:17] {@Threei}  flat
01[12:17] {@Threei}  why don't you focus on this?
[12:17] {dptl} fb i really scrude up and got out flat
01[12:17] {@Threei}  stop this self-destruction mode
01[12:18] {@Threei}  I feel like I am hitting the wall with my forehead day after day, watching your constantly expressed frustration
01[12:19] {@Threei}  promises to do this and not to do that, broken the very next day
[12:21] {dptl} i even lowered my sizes to redicuolas point and still stragle...yes...i guess i am pushing to much again...damn....i am gonna try to come down, and concentrate on your calls now only
[12:31] {dptl} Vad, how many charts total do you have on your screen at the same time?
01[12:32] {@Threei}  3 stocks and SPY
[12:32] {dptl} ok, and most of the time these 3 stocks , wich ones,?
01[12:33] {@Threei}  ??
01[12:33] {@Threei}  they change
01[12:33] {@Threei}  it's not the same three stocks
[12:33] {dptl} i see
[12:34] {dptl} do you still use inteliscan?
01[12:34] {@Threei}  yes
[12:37] {JoebiWan} do you like sdrl .40 break?
01[12:42] {@Threei}  not surte
01[12:45] {@Threei}  now probably better
01[12:45] {@Threei}  but we are nearing FOMC time
[12:45] {JoebiWan} ill just watch then
[12:46] {dptl} its at 1400 est? right? fomc
01[12:46] {@Threei}  yes
[12:53] {JoebiWan} well 1:1 on paper
[12:54] {dptl} yeah...we'll bill fed for that lol
01[13:03] {@Threei}  You don't bill Fed. Fed bills you.
[13:04] {RonS} if true, they need to ship me some... $100 bills...
01[13:05] {@Threei}  "cheque in the mail"
[13:27] {nemo} see I haven't missed anything
02[13:31] * Disconnected
Session Close: Wed Dec 17 13:31:36 2014

Session Start: Wed Dec 17 13:31:36 2014
Session Ident: #discussions
02[13:35] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[13:35] * Rejoined channel #discussions
03[13:35] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
01[13:41] {@Threei}  nemo, do you have swans in your vicinity?
[13:42] {RonS} probaly only Canadian geese...freelaoders
[13:42] {RonS} loaders
01[13:42] {@Threei}  lol
01[13:43] {@Threei}  just wanted to share a shot from couple days ago:
[13:44] {cosmo} safe!!
[13:44] {RonS} that dude is struting his stuff...
01[13:44] {@Threei}  cosmo... you OK?
[13:44] {cosmo} baseball call...
01[13:44] {@Threei}  ah... this stuff is lost on me...
[13:45] {cosmo} sorry
[13:45] {cosmo} :)
01[13:45] {@Threei}  no, I am sorry
01[13:45] {@Threei}  and swan, I am sure, is sorry
[13:45] {RonS} the ump swing his arms out like that signaling "safe"
01[13:45] {@Threei}  it's a canadian swan, so he is sorry
[13:46] {RonS} but honestly i didn't get it either
[13:46] {cosmo} gotta go to some game 3i
[13:46] {RonS} lol
[13:46] {cosmo} you too Ron
01[13:46] {@Threei}  why, I can sleep at home much more comfortably
[13:46] {RonS} rotflol
[13:46] {cosmo} safer too
01[13:47] {@Threei}  something about this game that I fundamentally don't get
[13:47] {nemo}
[13:47] {nemo} I'm impressed
01[13:47] {@Threei}  unavailable, nemo
[13:47] {cosmo} its a profound bore.... i know
[13:48] {nemo} too's a video of a tortoise coming upon an upside down fellow tortoise, and he turns him over
[13:48] {RonS} when played as a kid i didn't get it either...but now... it's the strategy
[13:49] {RonS} what's that Billie Bean book?  would give an intertaining insight to the game
[13:53] {RonS}
01[13:53] {@Threei}  let's be careful after the announcem,ent
01[13:54] {@Threei}  it's not the rate itself that important, that's a given
[13:54] {nemo} yeah, we'll get the Fed cha cha cha,  enter on the third "cha"
01[13:54] {@Threei}  impiortant part is the "considerable time" part,
01[13:54] {@Threei}  how it's worded, whether it's changed, what replaces it
[13:54] {nemo} and hoping they spell better than you do
01[13:55] {@Threei}  and it might take a few min to parse out
[13:55] {JoebiWan} where are you getting your info?
[13:55] {dino} down, up, down
[13:55] {nemo} twitter, news feeds
01[13:55] {@Threei}  doesn't matter jw
01[13:55] {@Threei}  you won't be faster than the rest of the world in any case
[13:55] {nemo} you tend to get an initial, secondary, and then third is the direction
01[13:56] {@Threei}  wait it out, let the market make up its mind
[13:56] {nemo} Yes, I've decided to drink while I wait
[13:56] {nemo} futures liquidity dropping through the floor
01[13:56] {@Threei}  otherwise risk ofbeing whipsawed is not even riskm practically certainty
[13:56] {dino} vxx hl l .01
[13:56] {nemo} figures
[13:56] {nemo} always one in the crowd
01[13:56] {@Threei}  [13:56] {nemo} Yes, I've decided to drink while... {--- insert anything
[13:57] {nemo} huuie
[13:57] {dino} its the cc9 trade
01[13:57] {@Threei}  lol
[13:57] {nemo} actually, reasonable with a wide stop
[13:57] {nemo} about the width of a septugenarian prostitutes ______________
[13:58] {dino} lol
[13:58] {nemo} dino strikes me as  a Clark Kent type
[13:59] {dino} i'm your superman
[13:59] {nemo} reasonable response
[13:59] {dino} either that or huckleberry
[13:59] {nemo} reminds me of the superman, wonderwoman, invisible man joke
[14:00] {nemo} o.k. Lunger
[14:00] {dino} bingo
[14:00] {dino} vxx top .66
[14:00] {dino} 100 pt spike
[14:01] {dino} starting to feel rates on hold for longer than expected with world economies going through deflation
01[14:01] {@Threei}  with oil, probably
01[14:02] {@Threei}  and gotta absorb the shock of russian defaults
[14:03] {dino} venezuela too, plus others
[14:04] {dino} vxx l .26
[14:04] {dino} no go, gapping trades
[14:06] {dino} l .09
[14:10] {dino} out vxx .29, +.20
[14:10] {nemo} a lot of work for .20
[14:10] {dino} yeah, not moving the way it usually does after announcement
[14:10] {nemo} confusion out there
[14:11] {dino} here too
[14:11] {nemo} perish the thought
[14:11] {dino} lol
[14:11] {nemo} iwm gap at 116.20 fill
[14:12] {nemo} Ever see the movie Ffolkes?
[14:12] {dino} no
[14:13] {nemo} are pretty funny
[14:13] {nemo}
[14:17] {nemo} VXX
[14:18] {nemo} looks long
01[14:18] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[14:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[14:19] {nemo} SPY might make another assualty on 202
01[14:19] {@Threei}  stop might be a bit too tight but...
01[14:20] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:20] {nemo} with this what
01[14:20] {@Threei}  1:2
01[14:20] {@Threei}  1:3
06[14:20] * @Threei slaps dptl around a bit with a large roll of cash
[14:21] {nemo} YW
[14:21] {dptl} out  ty
01[14:21] {@Threei}  sure thing
01[14:22] {@Threei}  (insert dude image)
[14:22] {nemo} stop under .30
[14:22] {dptl} missed .50 exit , so last piece got out .38, after taking 1:2 part out
[14:23] {nemo} why exit
[14:23] {dino} out vxx .51, +.30 ty vad
01[14:23] {@Threei}  :)
[14:31] {dino} vxx l .76
[14:34] {pamsv} cheers guys - catch you tmrw
[14:34] {nemo} a bloody Brit}
[14:34] {nemo} ?
[14:35] {dino} stop -.15
[14:54] {nemo} volatility nuts...spy average 1 minute bar change .24 cents
01[15:00] {@Threei}  yeah
01[15:00] {@Threei}  waiting for the sure shot
[15:01] {nemo} that was it, spy couldn't recover 201
[15:01] {nemo} hit the R1 and shit the bed
[15:03] {nemo} no algo activity, this is futures
01[15:09] {@Threei}  If you have an erection lasting longer than 4 hours, see a doctor" or turn on a Janet Yellen Fed press conference
01[15:09] {@Threei}  lol
[15:10] {JoebiWan} vad, rig .90 break?
01[15:11] {@Threei}  USO is so weak...
[15:11] {nemo} look @XOP
01[15:11] {@Threei}  wouldn't risk RIG here
[15:11] {JoebiWan} ty
[15:12] {nemo} watch XOP if ur playing rig
01[15:12] {@Threei}  maybe under .80 if it pulls back
[15:12] {nemo} 46.70-.80 in XOP important
[15:13] {nemo} price resistance @ 47
01[15:27] {@Threei} Short Setup: USO  .25 break
[15:27] {JoebiWan} xop through 47 nemo
01[15:32] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[15:33] {nemo} what volatility, average spy 1 min bar change .26
[15:35] {dino} odd xop and oih up w/oil about flat
[15:36] {nemo} not really people picking at value of companies over commodity
[15:36] {nemo} look at the dailies in Oil service stocks
[15:36] {dino} makes sense
[15:37] {nemo} rare for me
[15:40] {nemo} I think OP EX max pain spy is 203
[15:42] {nemo} 31.25 bottom in VXX
[15:44] {nemo} holy shit...dropped .10 in a telport
[15:45] {nemo} .36 battle
01[15:47] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:47] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:48] {dptl} gn all
[15:48] {JoebiWan} thx all cya
[15:49] {dino} gn all
[15:51] {cosmo} so are oil services stocks oversold?
01[15:51] {@Threei}  what's "oversold"...
[15:51] {cosmo} relative to oil
01[15:52] {@Threei}  oversold gets oversolder, then oversoldest... and then sells some more
[15:52] {cosmo} understand