Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Nov 28 2012

Catch of the day is two simultaneous trades today


One more Catch of the Day for today, somewhat unusual one - Don't Kid The Kidder setup. You know how breakouts during lunchtime often fail, resulting in shakeouts? Well, this one we used to buy from those who were "shaken out." Read the comments on the chart.




Session Time: Wed Nov 28 00:00:00 2012
[08:28] {dino} gm
01[08:44] {Threei}  morning dino, welcome back
[08:46] {dino} ty
01[08:58] {Threei}  KCG...
[08:58] {nemo} yeah, buyout from GETCo
[08:58] {nemo} GMCR
01[08:59] {Threei}  just a bid
01[08:59] {Threei}  not buyout yet
[08:59] {nemo} yeah
01[08:59] {Threei}  and bid is 3.50
[09:02] {cipher} gm
[09:03] {nemo} you been playing gmcr pre-market there cipher
[09:03] {nemo} ?
01[09:03] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:03] {nemo} oh...there was the morning stophunt on spy
[09:05] {cipher} no pre market today
[09:05] {cipher} you?
[09:06] {nemo} watching the levels...35.25 biggie so far 36.60 the high, 34.35 the low
[09:08] {nemo} Home builders strong with numbers coming at 10
[09:08] {nemo} GS sneaking up the relative strength list as are the Qs
[09:09] {scottie} good morning
[09:09] {nemo} interesting: BATS to borrow 300M for dividend payout.  Is that a healthy company?
01[09:12] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:16] {ese} morning
01[09:16] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:16] {ese} how is everyone............
[09:17] {nemo} I'm suddenly falling ill
[09:17] {ese} me too
01[09:17] {Threei}  alive ese... you?
[09:18] {nemo} no...it's his ethereal self typing on the keyboard....sheesh
[09:18] {ese} hmmmmmmm
[09:19] {thomcbell} is there a chip stock that also serves alternative energy industry?
01[09:19] {Threei}  AMD?
[09:20] {thomcbell} no but i believe it is 3 letter symbol
[09:20] {ese} ocz........solid state drives?
[09:20] {nemo} ocz makes memory too
[09:20] {Will49} Good Morning
01[09:20] {Threei}  will :)
[09:21] {thomcbell} Doing chart work - very interested in 25.25 level on FB - uptrend line from $19 - 3 day trailing pivot - and 50 % retrace from the moonshot beginning around the $24 area 
01[09:21] {Threei}  US) President Obama to speak at 11:35 ET **Reminder: President is meeting with key business leaders today
[09:21] {ese} am looking to get back into that one nemo...now that they've ousted the stupid ceo thats got them into the position there in......solid product
01[09:22] {Threei}  careful ese, company is investigated by SEC
[09:22] {ese} ya i've been following it........
[09:22] {ese} was seriously mismanaged by the former ceo
[09:24] {ese} they ousted him just before the last earnings release..........the new ceo psponed that release until a full investigation of the books was done......nasdaq then issued a letter because they've delayed that filing
[09:24] {Beau} good morning
01[09:24] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:24] {ese} B
01[09:25] {Threei}  yesterday was a remarkable day btw
[09:25] {ese} why?
01[09:25] {Threei}  Obama signed act shielding US airlines from EU carbon tax - that marks second time I agree with what Obama does
01[09:26] {Threei}  that makes quite a day for me
[09:26] {ese} cool
01[09:26] {Threei}  FCX
01[09:26] {Threei}  .95 support to break for short
[09:28] {nemo} nice spread fcx
01[09:29] {Threei}  was better at the moment
01[09:29] {Threei}  but setup is gone
01[09:29] {Threei}  unless you risked premarket trade
[09:29] {nemo} yes...pre-market liquidity, even early market liquidity is iffy of late
[09:29] {dino} tfm gap around 49.35
[09:30] {dino} bang
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[09:32] {Threei}  heh
01[09:32] {Threei}  good luck gwetting that fill
[09:32] {robbers} ooops.
01[09:32] {Threei}  look at that
01[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .60 break hl
01[09:33] {Threei}  ^%$@*&( SLW
[09:33] {nemo} spy coming in to gap fill
01[09:35] {Threei}  no go
01[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
01[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .85 
01[09:40] {Threei}  target .60
01[09:40] {Threei}  half out
01[09:40] {Threei}  stop to .81
[09:42] {robbers} out fcx, thanks.
01[09:42] {Threei}  :0
[09:42] {dino} tfm hl l .10
01[09:43] {Threei}  US) Preview: Oct New Home Sales due out at 10:00ET (15:00 GMT)**Consensus expectation: 390Ke v 389K prior
01[09:44] {Threei} Short Setup: RIG  .60 break
01[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  .70 
[09:46] {dino} out tfm .80, +.70
01[09:46] {Threei}  wtg
[09:46] {dino} ty
01[09:47] {Threei}  FCX target hit, out
[09:47] {dino} 07 red
01[09:47] {Threei}  Invalidated  RIG 
[09:48] {nemo} gmcr determined to go for the pre market high 
[09:49] {scottie} I was in RIG from .59 !
01[09:49] {Threei}  ?
01[09:49] {Threei}  I didn't see .60 breaking
[09:50] {scottie} 9:46 candle
01[09:50] {Threei}  print yes, but bid never went away
[09:50] {scottie} printed at .59 here
01[09:50] {Threei}  do you watch level 2?
[09:50] {scottie} yes
[09:50] {dino} feels like whoosh down coming
[09:50] {scottie} level 2 and T&S
01[09:51] {Threei}  there was a print below the bid
01[09:51] {Threei}  .60 bid was always there
[09:51] {scottie} didn't see that :(
[09:51] {nemo} housing numbers at 10
[09:52] {nemo} you must have sold through
01[09:59] {Threei}  two news conferences from congress dunces are coming
01[10:00] {Threei}  yikes home sales
01[10:00] {Threei}  (US) OCT NEW HOME SALES: 368K V 390KE- Prior revised lower from 389K to 369K
01[10:01] {Threei}  Median price: $237.7K v $242.4K prior (revised from $242.4K) - Months supply: 4.8 v 4.7 prior (revised from 4.5)
01[10:02] {Threei}  ok, call my cynic... but doesn't it strike you as highly suspicious that all those pre-election rising indicators suddenly turned down rigth after? and revisions are all down?
[10:02] {dino} indeed
[10:03] {thomcbell} no problems over at FB 
01[10:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  40 break
01[10:04] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[10:05] {Threei}  (FR) Fitch Analyst: France's 3%/GDP deficit target looks challenging, any underperformance of fiscal plans could lead to a ratings downgrade for France
01[10:05] {Threei}  Invalidated  JPM 
01[10:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .25 break
01[10:10] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
01[10:10] {Threei}  target 1:3
01[10:10] {Threei}  1:1 was easy
01[10:13] {Threei}  iksplozhion is coming
01[10:13] {Threei}  I am sure I spell it right
[10:13] {thomcbell} for FB?
01[10:13] {Threei}  yes
01[10:14] {Threei}  JPM is valid again
01[10:14] {Threei}  1:2 would be a new high for FB, just 1 cent higher current one... which should make 1:3 easy
01[10:16] {Threei}  oh boy
01[10:16] {Threei}  (GR) EU's Barroso: EU will do what is necessary to keep Greece in the eurozone- European Commission to propose giving eurozone a "fiscal capacity"
01[10:16] {Threei}  first line is a givcen.,... bit second is mind-boggling
01[10:17] {Threei}  really?
01[10:18] {Threei}  come on already FB, enough scares
01[10:19] {Threei}  let's trail JPM to .94
[10:19] {dino} ctrx drop
[10:21] {dino} cbsh hl l .25
01[10:21] {Threei}  FB stop to .29
01[10:21] {Threei}  1:2 baby
[10:21] {dino} gj
01[10:21] {Threei}  ty
[10:22] {thomcbell} 46.75 is the gap fill 
[10:22] {robbers} out FB, thanks.
01[10:22] {Threei}  JPM 1:1
01[10:22] {Threei}  yw
[10:22] {nemo} news?
01[10:22] {Threei}  1:2 close enough, out
01[10:23] {Threei}  (US) US House Speaker Boehner: Optimistic deal can be reached on budget; willing to put revenues on table if accompanied by spending cuts
01[10:24] {Threei}  my personal feel is, taxes will be raised, no spending cuts will take place
[10:24] {Will49} tks Vad 1:2 FB
01[10:24] {Threei}  :)
01[10:24] {Threei}  wow, JPM had more in it
01[10:25] {Threei}  I questionwed even 1:2 potential
[10:26] {scottie} jpm +.18 tks Vad
01[10:26] {Threei}  yw
01[10:27] {Threei}  no one took JPM?
[10:27] {Will49} still only capable of one trade at a time
[10:27] {Will49} simple mind
[10:28] {robbers} Same here, Will.
01[10:28] {Threei}  as I see it, republicans have no negotiating strength
01[10:29] {Threei}  they say no, democrats simply let all tax cuts expire and come back the next day with tax cut for low income
01[10:29] {Threei}  reps can't block that, it would be total suicide
01[10:30] {Threei}  thus dems get what they want and reps look fibble-minded losers overplayed their hand
01[10:30] {Threei}  so they won't say no
01[10:30] {Threei}  and we will get tax hikes and pretense of spending cuts
[10:31] {Will49} you're just mad that their crooks get to run the show instead of our crooks
[10:31] {Will49} your crooks
[10:32] {Will49} :)
01[10:32] {Threei}  very true
[10:32] {dino} only way you get serious spending cuts is if we go off the cliff. otherwise same old same old
[10:33] {Will49} be a good time for an alien invasion
[10:33] {Will49} do you think that would make people work together?
01[10:33] {Threei}  only if no supervolcano eruption on Dec 21
[10:33] {Will49} lol
01[10:33] {Threei}  but nemo promised
01[10:34] {Threei}  and no, part on humankind will collaborate with aliens
[10:34] {Will49} maybe the dems ARE aliens
[10:34] {robbers} Good, we need a three-party system.
[10:34] {Will49} the clever buggers
01[10:34] {Threei}  lol
[10:36] {Will49} POTUS's ears are a dead give away
[10:36] {Will49} he was probably born on he planet Zorn
[10:36] {Will49} the planet
[10:37] {Will49} and they don't have birth certificates there yet
01[10:37] {Threei}  rofl
01[10:37] {Threei}  but wait.. W was from Crypton I though?
[10:38] {Will49} yeah:)
01[10:38] {Threei}  so we are ruled by aliens for a good while
[10:38] {Will49} we earthlings are done for
01[10:38] {Threei}  White House reportedly will be flexible regarding the level of top tax rates - financial press
[10:39] {dino} out cbsh .52, +.27
[10:39] {scottie} out FB, went to 1:2 tks Vad
01[10:39] {Threei}  each hint of them finding common ground leads to market spike'
01[10:40] {Threei}  welcome sir
01[11:01] {Threei}  things stalled
01[11:01] {Threei}  visual: http://goo.gl/RYSNJ
[11:02] {nemo} yeah and the hurricane may have queered the housing numbers
01[11:19] {Threei}  watvh LVS for possible setup from under .10
01[11:19] {Threei}  if it tries to trap .20 buyers by quick dump
[11:23] {dino} shs spike
[11:24] {Will49} just to be clear..FB L break .10 after pullback?
[11:24] {dino} news shs?
[11:25] {Will49} sorry Vad meant LVS
[11:25] {Will49} LVS L .10 beak
[11:26] {Will49} break
[11:27] {dino} damn, can't  borrow shs
[11:27] {dino} srpt spike
01[11:27] {Threei}  yes
01[11:28] {Threei}  with .04 stop
01[11:28] {Threei}  and here we go
01[11:28] {Threei}  I call it Don't Kid the Kidder setup
[11:33] {scottie} out lvs, took half at .20, tks Vad
01[11:34] {Threei}  :)
01[11:34] {Threei}  isn't it a beauty?
[11:36] {scottie} yep, went out too soon
[11:44] {scottie} ERJ s .05 ?
01[11:45] {Threei}  not sure
[11:45] {scottie} ok
[11:47] {dino} wtw losing it
[11:50] {nemo} fslr
01[12:01] {Threei}  guess who is on TV
[12:01] {cc_8} Culp (NYSE: CFI) shares jumped 4.66% to create a new 52-week high of $13.70. LB Foster's PEG ratio is 1.27.
[12:01] {cc_8} Momenta Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: MNTA) shares lost 2.52% to create a new 52-week low of $10.06. 
[12:02] {cc_8} Cree Says LED Lighting Significantly Improves Sheetz Convenience RestaurantsPosted on: Wednesday, November 28, 2012 - 9:05amMore than 130 locations of convenience restaurant chain Sheetz, Inc. now . feature state-of-the-art LED lighting by Cree, Inc. (Nasdaq: CREE).
[12:02] {dino} ks spec div of $2
[12:17] {nemo} wtf
01[12:23] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/fND5W
[12:35] {nemo} finnies still need to get to pivot
[12:38] {cc_8} Costco Latest Company to Announce Special Dividend Ahead of Fiscal CliffPosted on: Wednesday, November 28, 2012 - 10:21am
[12:38] {cc_8} Costco Wholesale Corporation (Nasdaq: COST) reported sales figures on Wednesday. The company posted net sales of $8.15 billion for the month of November, a nine percent increase
01[12:46] {Threei}  Gold saw its biggest one-day drop this morning in nearly a month as the spot price tanked about 2% from around $1,736 to as low as $1,706. The sudden drop triggered stops and drove a massive amount of selling in a thin market. Traders initially blamed a fat finger, but there was no immediate recovery as would be expected with such an error. Others cited a trader setting up a short play of some kind.
01[12:46] {Threei}  isn't it amazing
01[12:46] {Threei}  this fascination with explanation
01[12:46] {Threei}  everyone needs a backstory, as if there is always one for every market twist and turn
01[12:47] {Threei}  total speculation: Others cited a trader setting up a short play of some kind
01[12:47] {Threei}  lol
[12:47] {nemo} I find it coincidental...cough...how often markets turn at very technical levels
01[12:48] {Threei}  hm... nemo, I just got an e-mail with groupon offer that made me think of you for some reason:
01[12:48] {Threei}  Gutter Cleaning
01[12:49] {Threei}  Up to 53%
[12:49] {nemo} Me too...I got one for exploding range targets...made me think of your head
01[12:49] {Threei}  hehe... hit the nerve
01[12:49] {Threei}  I feel like my job for the day is done
01[12:54] {Threei}  I nominate this as the stupidest twit of the day:
01[12:54] {Threei}  @HFTAlert: NEWS ALGOS TOTALLY IN CHARGE TODAY. GOOD LUCK HUMAN
[12:55] {nemo} yeah, they tweet that every day
01[12:56] {Threei}  guess what dimwit - attempts to be the first to buy news didn't work in 1997 either, long before any algo
01[12:56] {Threei}  the sheer numbers of idiots out there never stops amazing me
[12:57] {nemo} bell curve dood
01[12:57] {Threei}  feels to me like it becomes curvier by day
01[12:57] {Threei}  or bellier?
[12:58] {nemo} morons breed more often, as Uncle Zhukie used to say
01[12:58] {Threei}  lol
[12:58] {nemo} I'm serious
[12:58] {dino} lol
[12:59] {nemo} he pointed out the window at them and said to my friend, "Do you really think they'll stop breeding!"
01[12:59] {Threei}  my grandfather once told me: you know you start getting old when you feel the world is doomed and idiots take over every nook and cranny.
01[13:00] {Threei}  By that criteria, I am getting old real fast
[13:01] {nemo} listening to you gets old real fast
01[13:01] {Threei}  Powerball Jackpot Swells to $550 Million, As Lotto Fever Sweeps the Nation
01[13:01] {Threei}  nemo... let's buy that ticket
[13:02] {nemo} Yeah, already done.  What's great about Powerball is you don't have to identify yourself
01[13:03] {Threei}  what do you mean already done... you bought a ticket
01[13:03] {Threei}  I meant THAT ticket
[13:03] {nemo} no...this afternoon...I wouldn't tell anybody...then just grab the passport and ....SAYONARA!!!!
01[13:03] {Threei}  say what??
01[13:04] {Threei}  what about my share??
01[13:04] {Threei}  sheesh...
[13:04] {nemo} you miss the part about the passport?
01[13:04] {Threei}  oh the humanity
[13:04] {nemo} @$#* humanity!!!
01[13:04] {Threei}  wire me my share, then grab that passport
[13:04] {nemo} already have passport
01[13:05] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Evans: US lawmakers will probably avoid the fiscal cliff; fiscal consolidation should take place over a longer, more appropriate period of time - interview- Reiterates that the US faces a long period of low rates, Fed can raise rates when the economy becomes more vibrant. - Reiterates that Fed should maintain zero rates until unemployment falls to 6.5%. - Fed needs to continue $85B in asset purchases (Operation Twist) for six months up to one year
01[13:05] {Threei}  hmmm
01[13:05] {Threei}  wasn't it "indefinitely"?
01[13:05] {Threei}  where did 6 month to 1 year come from
[13:17] {dino} tdc drop
[13:24] {scottie} APKT l .60 ?
[13:24] {scottie} if holds .50
01[13:25] {Threei}  hmmm
01[13:25] {Threei}  probably
[13:27] {dino} club hl l .98
01[13:29] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .80 break
01[13:30] {Threei}  If holds  .85 
01[13:31] {Threei}  no go
01[13:32] {Threei}  rinse??
01[13:33] {Threei}  yuck
01[13:33] {Threei}  disgusting, LVS... disgusting
01[13:33] {Threei}  right idea, one cent rinse
01[13:36] {Threei}  am I alone here?
[13:36] {Will49} we chickens are still here
[13:37] {thomcbell} pretty dull tape 
[13:37] {thomcbell} now 
01[13:37] {Threei}  ok... are will and I are alone here?
[13:37] {Will49} roll call
01[13:37] {Threei}  ok... are will, tbell and I are alone here?
[13:37] {thomcbell} FB tightest range in a while 
01[13:37] {Threei}  hehe
[13:37] {scottie} I'm in apkt .61, stop .54
[13:37] {Will49} me too scottie
01[13:38] {Threei}  bands are tightening
01[13:38] {Threei}  resolution must be coming
[13:38] {robbers} That was a really good call, just didn't work out perfectly.
01[13:38] {Threei}  ah well
[13:38] {thomcbell} on FB Vad?  and if so - with your 1 minute chart ones?
01[13:38] {Threei}  no, APKT
01[13:39] {Threei}  actually, FB too
01[13:39] {Threei}  just not as pronounced'
[13:42] {dino} tkr
01[13:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
[13:46] {dino} gdi spike
[13:52] {dino} gdi sm s .74
[13:52] {dino} cov .34, +.40
[13:53] {nemo} ya' know, one could argue short here on spy
[13:53] {dino} mlnx bloody
01[13:53] {Threei}  I could argue both sides of this equally
[13:54] {nemo} yes, and of course, overbought can lead to overboughter
[13:56] {dino} tkr spike
[13:57] {nemo} gmcr about to go
[13:57] {dino} club stopped -.14
01[13:57] {Threei}  hand it a diaper, quick
01[14:00] {Threei}  *(US) FED'S BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMY EXPANDED AT A MEASURED PACE; HURRICANE SANDY CAUSED WEAKER GROWTH IN SOME AREAS
01[14:01] {Threei}  expanded at measured pace
01[14:01] {Threei}  FB stop to .29
01[14:02] {Threei}  out
[14:08] {scottie} half out apkt
01[14:09] {Threei}  nice
[14:09] {Will49} missed half by 1 cent
[14:09] {dino} gj
[14:09] {scottie} ty
[14:09] {Will49} got it
[14:09] {scottie} great will
[14:09] {Will49} tks scottie
[14:11] {scottie} stop .63
01[14:13] {Threei}  hmmm
01[14:14] {Threei}  According to a study by Spectrem Group, 58 percent of millionaire pet owners have a dog. Only 37 percent own a cat. Only three percent keep fish, two percent birds and two percent have a horse.
01[14:14] {Threei}  no single rabbit
[14:14] {Will49} haha
[14:14] {nemo} ;-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-)
[14:14] {nemo} I woke up around 4 this morning, which is bunny's favorite play time
[14:17] {scottie} dtop .69
[14:17] {scottie} stop
[14:22] {scottie} out
[14:26] {nemo} tna could be long above .20
[14:28] {nemo} nope
[14:39] {nemo} o.k. I was a tad early
[14:45] {nemo} Qs IWM and SPY all got to their daily pivots, finnies the only thing that hasn't yet
[14:50] {scottie} GG .35 if holds .25 ?
[14:51] {scottie} went up while I was typing
[14:54] {scottie} in .36
[14:55] {nemo} can't get lower lows on indexes, this is looking more like a breakout coming
[14:58] {scottie} half out
[15:02] {scottie} stop .39
01[15:03] {Threei}  wtg
[15:03] {dino} gj
[15:04] {scottie} out 
[15:04] {scottie} ty
01[15:06] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
[15:09] {nemo} big gap up tomorrow
01[15:10] {Threei}  (US) Senator Conrad (D-ND) Budget Committee Chair: Need $400B worth of spending cuts and revenue raises as a downpayment this year to avoid the fiscal cliff- Affirms that any deal to avoid the fiscal cliff should include raising the debt ceiling - Recommends a split of $400B between revenue and spending cuts
01[15:10] {Threei}  400B?
01[15:10] {Threei}  4 months deficit
[15:10] {dino} rgr drop
[15:14] {Will49} big wick at 15:10 doesn't invalidate FB..right?
[15:15] {nemo} finnies topped out at pivot...that may be it
01[15:16] {Threei}  valid, yes
[15:16] {Will49} tks
01[15:17] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .50 break hl
01[15:17] {Threei}  If holds  .60 
01[15:29] {Threei}  Invalidated  FB 
01[15:44] {Threei}  die GLD
01[15:54] {Threei}  meh
01[15:54] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:55] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:56] {scottie} gn all
[15:57] {dino} thx all, gn

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Nov 27 2012

Opposite to yesterday - good start, then total absence of follow-through leading to a few stops, and ending slightly negative.


Session Time: Tue Nov 27 00:00:00 2012
01[08:48] {Threei}  - Germany CDU Budget lawmaker Barthle: Greece creditors probably faced a haircut in 2022
01[08:48] {Threei}  lol
[08:48] {cipher} gm
01[08:48] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:08] {scottie} good morning
01[09:08] {Threei}  scottie :)
01[09:14] {Threei}  feels like things are seting up for selloff
[09:18] {Beau} good morning
01[09:19] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:20] {Will49} good morning
01[09:20] {Threei}  will :)
01[09:23] {Threei}  (US) Puerto Rico faces pension funding problem due to large debt- financial press- Facing problems similar to Greece including tax fraud, poor economic growth and very high levels of debt - Have already sold two toll roads and the main airport to raise funds - Borrowing costs have risen to 250bps over other muncipal borrowers up from 150bps over at the begining of the year - The main pension fund, which serves 250K workers, is only 6% funded
[09:28] {Beau} .
01[09:28] {Threei}  good point
01[09:29] {Threei}  watching JPM, FB and usual suspects
01[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .85 break
01[09:30] {Threei}  If holds  .95
01[09:31] {Threei}  change to .90
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  26 break hl
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:32] {Threei}  Invalidated  JPM
[09:33] {thomcbell} fio?
01[09:34] {Threei}  1:1 FB
01[09:34] {Threei}  don't see fresh news on FIO
01[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .85 break
[09:35] {thomcbell} wow
01[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .95
01[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
01[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:40] {nemo} what up with cree
01[09:41] {Threei}  no news that I see
01[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .80 break hl
01[09:42] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[09:42] {thomcbell} that FIO is just bananas
[09:42] {thomcbell} dying to know what that was about
[09:43] {thomcbell} FB $26 break VAd?
01[09:43] {Threei}  CAT 1:1
01[09:43] {Threei}  it was
[09:44] {thomcbell} 1:1
[09:44] {thomcbell} i took it
[09:45] {robbers} thanks cat.
01[09:45] {Threei}  :)
01[09:45] {Threei}  let's scratch SLW
[09:45] {thomcbell} FB 1:2
[09:45] {thomcbell} stop on balance to 26.1
[09:45] {robbers} wtg.
[09:47] {thomcbell} raiting stop to 26.20 on FB
[09:48] {thomcbell} 1:3
01[09:48] {Threei}  gj
[09:48] {thomcbell} raising stop to 26.25
01[09:48] {Threei}  CAT almost 1:2, out
[09:48] {thomcbell} out
[09:48] {Will49} good call on SLW Vad
01[09:49] {Threei}  yeah, tried hard to sell off but eventually tide took it up
01[09:50] {Threei}  too soon, CAT
[09:51] {cipher} cree s .39
[09:51] {cipher} cat s .00
01[09:51] {Threei}  (US) Preview: Nov Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index expected at 10:00 ET (15:00 GMT)**Consensus expectation: -9e v -7 prior
[09:55] {cipher} cov cree .45 -.06
[09:55] {nemo} cree is today's ddd
[09:57] {cipher} cree s .42
[09:58] {cipher} cov 1/2 cat .90 +.10
01[09:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .80 break
01[09:58] {Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) NOV RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING: 9 V -9E
01[09:59] {Threei}  LVS 1:1 but good luck getting in
[10:00] {Will49} no luck here :(
[10:00] {scottie} nor here
01[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 73.7 V 73.0E
[10:00] {scottie} great call though
[10:00] {nemo} well,  this will be an inflection point on that report
01[10:00] {Threei}  teleported
01[10:01] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.2% V 0.4%E; Q/Q: 1.1% V 1.4%E
[10:01] {cipher} cov remainder cat .80 +.20
01[10:01] {Threei}  where is ese... good report to heckle us with, and he is slacking
01[10:02] {Threei}  nice one cipher
[10:03] {cipher} too sonn
01[10:03] {Threei}  LVS
01[10:03] {Threei}  same setup
01[10:03] {Threei}  only stop is .74
01[10:04] {Threei}  half out
01[10:04] {Threei}  .89
01[10:04] {Threei}  wow
01[10:04] {Threei}  market doesn't like good numbers
[10:04] {Will49} reports going over like a lead balloon
01[10:05] {Threei}  out LVS in full
01[10:05] {Threei}  too soon
01[10:06] {Threei}  housing price numbers were questionable
01[10:06] {Threei}  but I don't think this is what sinks the market
[10:06] {Will49} aren't all numbers questionable?
[10:08] {Will49} oh..i forgot, election is over
01[10:08] {Threei}  lol
01[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .90 break
01[10:08] {Threei}  If holds  46
01[10:11] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .50 break
01[10:11] {Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:13] {Threei}  speaking of election, will... yesterday I found myself applauding NDP win, first time in my life
01[10:13] {Threei}  LVS 1:1
01[10:15] {Threei}  CAT 1:1
01[10:16] {Threei}  LVS, scalpers win
[10:16] {cipher} cov 1/2 cree .10 +.32
[10:16] {Will49} was your applause due to sewage treatment question?
01[10:17] {Threei}  market is set up for selloff, as premarket feeling was
01[10:17] {Threei}  no... die to alternative being Green
01[10:17] {Threei}  due
[10:17] {Will49} agree
[10:17] {Will49} I hate EM
01[10:18] {Threei}  as far as treatment goes, ironically NDP candidate was the only one wrong on the issue
[10:18] {Will49} She's your MP right?
01[10:18] {Threei}  and public seems to be against it... but voted for him anyway, lol
[10:18] {nemo} wow, this is pretty choppy
01[10:18] {Threei}  yes, and I am deeply ashamed
[10:18] {Will49} :)
[10:19] {Will49} So this new guy is now my MP
01[10:19] {Threei}  grr CAT
01[10:19] {Threei}  rinsed second half
[10:20] {cc_8} McMoRan Exploration Co (NYSE: MMR) shares lost 22.80% to create a new 52-week low of $7.45. Analysts at RBC Capital downgraded McMoRan Exploration from “outperform” to “sector perform.” .
[10:20] {cc_8} Cymer (NASDAQ: CYMI) shares jumped 1.14% to create a new 52-week high of $84.90. Cymer shares have surged 105.08% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has gained 17.66% in the same...
[10:21] {nemo} bounce setting up
[10:23] {nemo} bounced but choppy
[10:26] {cipher} TNA L .00
[10:27] {cipher} cov rest cree .10 +.32
01[10:28] {Threei}  wtg
[10:28] {cipher} cree l .20
[10:34] {scottie} fio l .20 ?
01[10:35] {Threei}  I'd take it here
01[10:35] {Threei}  aggressively
[10:35] {scottie} in .11
[10:35] {cipher} fio l .11
[10:38] {thomcbell} FB at yest pivot
[10:38] {thomcbell} 25.61
01[10:38] {Threei}  if SPY is serious about reversing, FIO shoulf be good to about .40
[10:38] {nemo} very choppy today
[10:39] {nemo} iwm low today only a few cents above pivot
[10:43] {nemo} market getting weaker again
[10:47] {cipher} financials moving higher
01[10:52] {Threei}  FIO time to shine
01[10:52] {Threei}  SPY put in trend reversal
[10:56] {scottie} rimm l .20 ?
01[10:56] {Threei}  not sure
[10:57] {scottie} fio half out
01[10:57] {Threei}  chart is right but I am really not enchated with the stock
[10:58] {scottie} stop .04
[10:59] {cipher} out cree .04 -.16
01[11:00] {Threei}  best quote I've heard in a good while:
01[11:00] {Threei}  �It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.� ? Upton Sinclair
[11:01] {thomcbell} very nice
[11:03] {cipher} out tna in full .48 +.48
[11:03] {Will49} beauty
[11:03] {cipher} took a while
[11:04] {nemo} how much of a stop were you giving it?
[11:04] {cipher} around .20
[11:04] {cipher} knew the potential
[11:04] {cipher} it is my setup
[11:05] {robbers} nice, cipher, congrats.
[11:05] {cipher} ty
[11:09] {scottie} thanks Vad RIMM
[11:10] {nemo} pxp looks short
01[11:10] {Threei}  sure
01[11:11] {Threei}  this thing is nothing but dead cat
01[11:11] {Threei}  whole bounce in it in just that
[11:11] {scottie} out fio
01[11:11] {Threei}  idiots discuss how its new OS is goijng to revolutionize something and take market share back from AAPL
[11:12] {cipher} tna reload .43
01[11:12] {Threei}  this is pure bs, it bounced simply because it ran out of sellers for the moment
01[11:12] {Threei}  as far as market share is concerned, RIMM is toast
[11:13] {cipher} out tna .59
[11:15] {scottie} CREE s .90 ?
01[11:16] {Threei}  tw-sided I think
[11:16] {scottie} ok
[11:17] {scottie} missed it
01[11:20] {Threei}  jumpy
[11:24] {cipher} fio s .01
[11:27] {scottie} ebay l .90 ?
01[11:28] {Threei}  aggressive fior 51... yeah
[11:29] {scottie} in .90
[11:30] {cipher} cov fio .04 -.03
[11:30] {cipher} jumpy little sucker
[11:34] {scottie} offering first half at .99
01[11:35] {Threei}  getting a taste of aggressive entries, eh? :)
[11:36] {scottie} yes, slowly
[11:37] {scottie} half out
01[11:37] {Threei}  I love them
01[11:37] {Threei}  I wouldn't recommend a newer trader to start with them, but as soon as basic setup skeleton is mastered...
[11:39] {nemo} lvs
[11:39] {cipher} celg l .65
[11:40] {cipher} out .76
[11:52] {scottie} trying hard to break 51
[11:52] {nemo} LVS running
[11:53] {scottie} there
[11:57] {scottie} 1/4 more out
[11:58] {scottie} stop .99
[12:14] {scottie} out
01[12:15] {Threei}  conpare the trade to regular one
01[12:15] {Threei}  waiting for 51 break
[12:19] {scottie} yes, a lot more interesting
01[12:44] {Threei}  Record Powerball jackpot increased to $500 million for Wednesday's drawing amid soaring ticket sales
[12:44] {scottie} AKAM s .70 ?
01[12:44] {Threei}  I think so
[12:46] {scottie} in .69
01[12:47] {Threei}  have you noticed... everybody seem awfully calm about having less than 1 month left to live?
[12:47] {nemo} whaddya' gonna' do about it?
01[12:48] {Threei}  spend away... dance... drink... fight dragons and seduce princesses...
[12:49] {nemo} looks like Qs going for the 200 SMA
[12:59] {scottie} going nowhere3, stop .78
[13:05] {scottie} out
[13:47] {Will49} is everybody quietly contemplating the end of the world?
[13:47] {Will49} it's so quite
01[13:47] {Threei}  I know I am
[13:47] {Will49} quiet
01[13:47] {Threei}  I am monitoring the state of volcano
[13:49] {Will49} Our maui location is half-way up Holeakala (temorarily silent)
01[13:50] {Threei}  that one is silent, yeah. Mine is active
[13:51] {Will49} last erupted in 190
[13:51] {Will49} 1790
[13:52] {cipher} z l .25
[13:52] {cipher} out .53
01[13:55] {Threei}  wtg
[13:56] {cipher} TY
01[13:56] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .60 break
01[13:56] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[14:00] {scottie} valid ?
01[14:00] {Threei}  yup
01[14:01] {Threei}  meh
01[14:01] {Threei}  hesitance to bid it up was the clue
01[14:01] {Threei}  qwidened spread over .60 but bid remained .57
[14:05] {Will49} guess that's your classic rinse eh?
[14:06] {Will49} your=global
[14:06] {Will49} not you Vad
[14:06] {scottie} bad execution, I went out at .40 for -.21. Very painful
01[14:06] {Threei}  wow
[14:07] {Will49} got out with a -.07
[14:07] {Will49} victory of sorts
01[14:07] {Threei}  first, not sure it was worth entry at all
01[14:07] {Threei}  there were a lot of shares at .61, why be the first to buy
01[14:08] {Threei}  spread widened, no bids went ip, pause in buying
01[14:09] {Threei}  not a situation where I'd be in a rush to enter
[14:10] {Will49} i just follow you blindly...like a puppy dog :)
[14:11] {Will49} maybe that "blindly" part needs fixing
[14:14] {nemo} not alot of follow through on anything so far this afternoon
01[14:22] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Little progress has been made in talks regarding the Fiscal Cliff
[14:22] {Will49} is that what woke up market?
01[14:22] {Threei}  oh god... now they'll torture us with these on again off again announcements till the last minute, lol
01[14:23] {Threei}  then they'll agree on some very ugly and meaningless compromise
01[14:23] {Threei}  that won't resolve anything
01[14:26] {Threei}  isn't it amazing how this show repeats itself over and over
01[14:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .95 break
01[14:34] {Threei}  If holds  .90  for scalpers, .85 day traders
01[14:35] {Threei}  if SPY loses .50...
01[14:35] {Threei}  cascade, I am telling you... cascade
[14:36] {Will49} push everone ..push
[14:36] {Will49} everyone
[14:38] {nemo} tna .01
01[14:38] {Threei}  stop .89 for everyone now
[14:41] {nemo} partialed .13
01[14:45] {Threei}  ok TZA
01[14:45] {Threei}  it's time
01[14:45] {Threei}  you gave nemo his scalp, our turn now
01[14:45] {Threei}  this way everyone's happy
01[14:46] {Threei}  not that I care much about nemo's happiness, but...
[14:46] {nemo} mesodactyl to you too
01[14:47] {Threei}  but... I just know that you are miserable when you are happy
01[14:47] {Threei}  or when people care
01[14:47] {Threei}  so it's an act of mercy on my part
01[14:47] {Threei}  brrrreak
[14:47] {nemo} not sure how to take that
01[14:48] {Threei}  in stride
[14:49] {cipher} aegr s .27
01[14:50] {Threei}  was offering half at .04
01[14:50] {Threei}  come on
[14:55] {cipher} z s .43
[14:56] {nemo} vwap run
01[14:59] {Threei}  Buffet - "Tax Hikes On Rich Would "Raise Morale Of The Middle Class"
01[14:59] {Threei}  cretin
[15:01] {cipher} cov aegr .25 +.02
[15:02] {scottie}  Enough for me guys, see you all tomorrow
[15:02] {Will49} keep the faith Scottie
[15:02] {scottie} No prob will
[15:03] {nemo} spy and finnies weaker than iwm
[15:03] {nemo} Qs weak too
01[15:05] {Threei}  take care scottie
[15:17] {cipher} cov z .27 +.16
[15:20] {nemo} dont you want to short the spy or iwm here?
01[15:21] {Threei}  can't tell really
01[15:21] {Threei}  aimless drifting
01[15:21] {Threei}  no energy either way
[15:22] {nemo} yeah, iwm near vwap spy about .20 below, and Finnies below vwap, actually long might make more sense
01[15:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  FSLR  .45 break hl
01[15:22] {Threei}  If holds  .35
01[15:24] {Threei}  - White House Spokesman Carney: Denies talks are at an impasse. Any suggestion that the budget talks have broken down is wrong
01[15:24] {Threei}  sigh
01[15:34] {Threei}  and another sigh
01[15:39] {Threei}  Wow! -- Student-Loan Delinquencies Now Surpass Credit Cards
01[15:41] {Threei}  this market drop was totally out of whack
01[15:41] {Threei}  no setup, no pattern, no news
01[15:44] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .70 break
01[15:44] {Threei}  last attempt for today
01[15:44] {Threei}  If holds  .75
01[15:48] {Threei}  shrug
01[15:48] {Threei}  out
01[15:48] {Threei}  nothing fiollows through in this afternoon
01[15:48] {Threei}  have a good evening guys, see you tomorrow
[15:48] {Will49} maybe tomorrow!
[15:49] {Will49} Asta Lavista baby

Monday, November 26, 2012

Nov 26 2012

Quiet low volume day, slightly positive after two back-to-back 1:2 wins at the end of the day.

Session Time: Mon Nov 26 00:00:00 2012
[09:01] {scottie} good morning
01[09:02] {Threei}  morning scottie
01[09:06] {Threei}  some finally start admitting that debt that can't be repaid, won't
01[09:06] {Threei}  "But last Tuesday Lagarde... insisted, creditor countries would have to forgive the government in Athens a large share of its debt. "Nothing else will work," Lagarde said.
01[09:16] {Threei}  (GR) Germany Dep Fin Min Kampeter: 16 Euro members have rejected the OSI debt writedown for Greece, not just Germany in opposition- No need for additional Greek austerity measures - Euro currency will continue to exist in 5 year time
01[09:16] {Threei}  hmmm... this is interesting bet to take
[09:17] {thomcbell} FB
01[09:17] {Threei}  just won't quit, eh?
[09:17] {thomcbell} big respected firm upgrade - Bernstein 
[09:17] {thomcbell} said all the right things 
[09:17] {thomcbell} $23 to $33 based on monetizing mobile and revenue growth 
01[09:18] {Threei}  that's wide range
01[09:18] {Threei}  one thing may work against it all - its users come to hate it
01[09:19] {Threei}  if credible alternative appears, FB may find itself facing Myspace fate... the place emptied almost overnight
[09:19] {Beau} good morning
01[09:19] {Threei}  Beau :)
[09:20] {Will49} gm
[09:20] {cipher} gm
01[09:23] {Threei}  will, cipher :)
[09:29] {Les} hi
01[09:29] {Threei}  les :)
01[09:29] {Threei}  FB on watch for pullback
01[09:29] {Threei}  long entries for now on it
[09:30] {thomcbell} pullback from 24.82 went to about 24.64
01[09:31] {Threei}  SLW for long too
01[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .80 
01[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .95 break
01[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[09:35] {Threei}  half out SLW .04
01[09:36] {Threei}  FB 1:1
[09:36] {thomcbell} jpm very weak
[09:37] {thomcbell} big FB offers right at 25 
01[09:37] {Threei}  SLW, scalpers win
01[09:37] {Threei}  FB should take it easily
[09:37] {nemo} spy chopping
[09:39] {Les} faded slw long .98 cover half .90
[09:39] {thomcbell} $25.05 ish was pre-market high on FB
[09:40] {nemo} deck
01[09:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  RG  .50 break hl
01[09:40] {Threei}  grrr.. late
01[09:41] {Threei}  RIG that was
01[09:41] {Threei}  (CA) Canada Fin Min Flaherty to hold new conf at 10:30ET; no topic announced
[09:41] {Les} 1:2 slw full cover continue on paper
01[09:42] {Threei}  movie review I assume
01[09:42] {Threei}  SPY looks a bit psychotic today
01[09:43] {Threei}  FB should be good for 1:5
[09:44] {scottie} FB went down to .87, I got out at .88 !
01[09:44] {Threei}  1:2
[09:44] {scottie} What did I do wrong ?
01[09:44] {Threei}  nothing really, it was a discretionary moment
01[09:45] {Threei}  it dove so fast and bpunced back so furiously
01[09:45] {Threei}  often can be discounted as accidental move
[09:45] {nemo} slw above .85
01[09:45] {Threei}  1:3
[09:46] {nemo} fb may close the gap and go momo should hold a piece
01[09:46] {Threei}  look at it this way:
01[09:46] {Threei}  1:4
01[09:47] {Threei}  there are rules, and there is experience that helps you decide when the rules can be broken
[09:47] {thomcbell} nice freakin job Bad
01[09:47] {Threei}  in absence of that exprience, follow thwe rules
[09:47] {thomcbell} Vad
01[09:47] {Threei}  it takes time
[09:47] {nemo} slw 1:1
01[09:47] {Threei}  ty
01[09:48] {Threei}  out in full
01[09:48] {Threei}  .36
01[09:48] {Threei}  almost 1:5
[09:48] {cipher} wtg
01[09:48] {Threei}  ty
[09:49] {nemo} another entry fb above .40
[09:49] {Will49} nice call Vad
01[09:49] {Threei}  not sure about that one nemo... becomes a little hysterical
[09:49] {scottie} Nice call should've stayed in
01[09:49] {Threei}  can go either way, and fast
[09:49] {Will49} me too
[09:49] {nemo} yeah, it's gonna momo to the gap
[09:50] {nemo} those long tails below, they're trying to whack stops
[09:50] {nemo} they drop out right to the same level
[09:51] {nemo} wow, that's amazing
[09:52] {nemo} that's some funny action
[09:52] {Les} crap pulled out after .05 with those funny tails
[09:53] {Les} my p&l was telling me I was .35 in the red
[09:53] {cipher} s fb .80
[09:53] {Will49} tks nemo +.35
[09:54] {cipher} cov .70
[09:54] {thomcbell} the guy with the upgrade is about to go onto Bloomberg radio sortly
[09:54] {thomcbell} shortly
[09:54] {thomcbell} if he qualifies comments it could be a decent retrace
[09:54] {cipher} my p&l is off too
[09:55] {cipher} but only while pos is on
[09:55] {cipher} then it recalculates
01[09:56] {Threei}  only on FB btw
[09:56] {cipher} yes
01[09:56] {Threei}  there was some interruption in its vhart
01[09:56] {Threei}  chart
01[09:56] {Threei}  while Level 2 and T&S remained fine
[09:57] {cipher} charting couldn't keep up
[09:57] {scottie} Same here
01[09:58] {Threei}  nice top nail cipher
[09:58] {cipher} yeah but chickened out
01[09:58] {Threei}  can't blame you
01[09:59] {Threei}  these thing are like freight train
[09:59] {cipher} yep
01[09:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .70 break
01[10:00] {Threei}  no go
01[10:00] {Threei}  SPY another spasm
01[10:03] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  44 break
01[10:03] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[10:03] {cipher} cat l .49
[10:04] {cipher} out 1/2 cat .60
[10:05] {cipher} out in full .68 
01[10:06] {Threei}  nice
01[10:06] {Threei}  I was looking at it a few times, never saw entry to call
01[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .70 break
01[10:09] {Threei}  LVS is valid
01[10:10] {Threei}  FB stop .76
01[10:10] {Threei}  let's keep it tight
01[10:11] {Threei}  better be live chicken than dead lion
[10:11] {Will49} :0
[10:12] {Will49} :)
01[10:12] {Threei}  half out FB
01[10:12] {Threei}  stop .72
01[10:13] {Threei}  scalpers win
01[10:13] {Threei}  tough thing to short
01[10:14] {Threei}  LVS stop .06
[10:15] {Les} l tza .15 stop below .10
01[10:15] {Threei}  1:1
01[10:17] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM said to need a decision on the loan tranche today; Govt may collapse if an agreement is not reached on the �31.5B
01[10:18] {Threei}  collapse already please
[10:18] {Will49} could be Zorba's last dance
01[10:18] {Threei}  now, fate of EU seems to be dependent on the size of bladders:
01[10:18] {Threei}  Eurogroup to take 1 hour break for technical work before returning to meetings on Greece
[10:19] {Les} stop flat spy looking long
[10:23] {Les} indexes holding on by skin of their teeth
01[10:25] {Threei}  LVS is ready for second leg
[10:27] {nemo} this is long setup spy iwm, gonna' test the other side of the rainge soon
[10:27] {nemo} range
[10:27] {nemo} iwm may drop to .33ish
[10:28] {Will49} is LVS two-way?
01[10:28] {Threei}  ?
01[10:28] {Threei}  it's not a new setup
01[10:29] {Threei}  continuation of the short from 44
[10:29] {Will49} tks
[10:30] {thomcbell} short setup FIO 24 break 
[10:30] {thomcbell} if holding 24.10
[10:42] {thomcbell} fIO invalidated
[10:50] {thomcbell} FB very impressive 
01[10:54] {Threei}  48% Think New Tax Money Will Go to New Programs, Not Deficit Reduction
01[10:54] {Threei}  duh
01[10:55] {Threei}  stranger things may have happened but not often: Pravda published article in which it accuses America of being run by communists
[10:57] {Les} takes one to know one
01[10:57] {Threei}  that was my first thought
[10:57] {nemo} yeah saw that and of course coming from them it must be the "Truth"
01[10:58] {Threei}  article overall is bs, and full of bs, but one phrase in it rings true
[10:58] {nemo} Obama is a communist?
01[10:58] {Threei}  no, lol
01[10:59] {Threei}  President Vladimir Putin could never have imagined anyone so ignorant or so willing to destroy their people like Obama much less seeing millions vote for someone like Obama. They read history in America don't they?
[10:59] {nemo} no
01[10:59] {Threei}  During the time of the Soviet Union the role of the state in economy was made absolute, which eventually lead to the total non-competitiveness of the economy. That lesson cost us very dearly. I am sure no one would want history to repeat itself.
01[11:00] {Threei}  then again, in the next breath he says:
01[11:00] {Threei}  Honesty and hard work, responsibility and faith in our strength are bound to bring us success.
01[11:00] {Threei}  which coming from him is beyond funny
01[11:02] {Threei}  grrr LVS
01[11:02] {Threei}  did you have to rinse second half before dropping?
[11:02] {Les} LVS - "yes"
01[11:03] {Threei}  this market drop is tough to play... those guys with small bladders return from their break and announce Greece deal, you don't want to be caught short
01[11:03] {Threei}  they say "no deal today," you don't want to be long
01[11:04] {Threei}  so, gotta wait a little
01[11:05] {Threei}  meanwhile, since I had enough time to work with photos and catch up with my backlog, a few to look at:
01[11:05] {Threei}  http://photography.realitytrader.com/2012/11/family-life-of-great-blue-herons.html
01[11:05] {Threei}  http://photography.realitytrader.com/2012/11/centennial-square-fountain-and-ferris.html
01[11:05] {Threei}  http://photography.realitytrader.com/2012/11/downtown-christmas-lights.html
[11:05] {Les} show em the hotel with the swiss flag
01[11:05] {Threei}  in third link... but you need an eye exam {G}
[11:14] {scottie} ANN s .70 ?
01[11:14] {Threei}  yup, nice setup
01[11:15] {Threei}  and if they postpone decision once again (which is most likely outcome) while trade's in progress, it should be gold
[11:18] {nemo} spxu argualbly long on drop of the low, to retest Friday lows
[11:18] {cipher} +.07 ann thx scottie
[11:19] {nemo} also arguably long here two way
[11:19] {nemo} spy that is
[11:19] {scottie} yw cipher
[11:22] {nemo} I'm seeing alot of red stocks, and the indexes aren't dropping, so they may be using the futures to hold up the indexes
01[11:23] {Threei}  you mean THEY
[11:23] {nemo} of course
01[11:24] {Threei}  EU Budget Is Not Likely to Be Finalized in 2012
[11:24] {nemo} btw...watched the movie "Network" last night, hadn't seen it in a Vad's-age.  What a great movie
[11:25] {nemo} the dialogue is fantastic
01[11:25] {Threei}  what's with socialists not having budgets on both sides of the paddle?
01[11:25] {Threei}  even USSR had them (misreable as they were)
[11:25] {nemo} 5 year plans
01[11:25] {Threei}  US President Obama reportedly to name Elisse Walter as new SEC Chairperson
01[11:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .95 break
01[11:38] {Threei}  If holds  ,85 
01[11:42] {Threei}  target 1:3
01[11:42] {Threei}  should break 26 and, ummm... iksplode
[11:43] {Will49} I hopzo
01[11:46] {Threei}  (US) President Obama and House Speaker Boehner were said to have spoken by phone to discuss the fiscal cliff this weekend - financial press- Staff negotiations are said to have continued this weekend as well, talks going slowly. ***Reminder: On Nov 25th, Sen Durbin (D-IL) said that little progress toward resolving fiscal cliff was made over the prior 10 days while Congress was off session
01[11:52] {Threei}  can't tell whether it's losing drive or it's simply a low volume pullback
[11:54] {cc_8} Zhongpin (NASDAQ: HOGS) shares moved up 15.38% to $12.53 at 10:30 am. The volume of Zhongpin shares traded was 1928% higher than normal.
01[12:00] {Threei}  stop
01[12:08] {Threei}  rinse... can't believe it
[12:11] {thomcbell} Hey VAd if it was easy everyone would trade for a living 
01[12:11] {Threei}  oh
[12:11] {thomcbell} hehehe :(
01[12:11] {Threei}  I never thought of it this way
01[12:11] {Threei}  {GGG}
01[12:18] {Threei}  I am willing to give it one more chance
01[12:18] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  26 break
01[12:26] {Threei}  Invalidated  
01[12:28] {Threei}  - Concerns about the fiscal cliff are trumping strong holiday spending this morning. Yesterday key Demcratic Senator Durbin commented that little progress was made toward resolving fiscal cliff during Congressional recess over the past 10 days.
01[12:28] {Threei}  - FX markets have been relatively quiet during as participants await news from the latest Eurogroup meeting on Greece. Achieving debt sustainability for Athens is the continuing goal, although opinions are mixed as to whether a deal is possible today. The current Greek government may fall if a deal is not reached.
01[12:29] {Threei}  may we be so lucky
[12:37] {thomcbell} lvs really got its footing 
01[12:46] {Threei} Short Setup: ALK  .40 break hl
01[12:46] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
01[12:57] {Threei}  sigh
01[12:57] {Threei}  action stopped
[13:00] {scottie} EBAY l .60 ?
01[13:00] {Threei}  short side looks better to me
[13:00] {scottie} ok
01[13:01] {Threei} Short Setup: MHP  .50 break hl
01[13:11] {Threei}  (GR) ECB said to be open to idea of re-accepting Greek govt bonds as collateral if the Greece aid tranche is approved - financial press- ECB also said to be considering options helping Greece reduce its funding gap, including the idea of a Greek bond rollover and buyback, or using investment portfolio profits to buy Greek bonds
01[13:13] {Threei}  France Industrial Min Montebourg said that the government is working on a temporary nationalization of MT's steelworks Florange and said it does not want to see Mittal continue operations in France. ArcelorMittal and the French government have been at odds for months over the company's plan to shut down two blast furnaces in Florange
01[13:13] {Threei}  nice
01[13:13] {Threei}  1:1
01[13:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  LOW  .20 break
01[13:23] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
01[13:23] {Threei}  if loses .15, rather look for aggressive entry
01[13:23] {Threei}  around .10
01[13:26] {Threei}  (GR) IMF said to be seeking EMU cut to Greece debt of approx 20%/GDP immediately, with additional cuts at a later date - financial press
01[13:27] {Threei}  isn't it funny... they seek toforgive Greece debt in order to be able to give it more loans
01[13:27] {Threei}  I presume to forgive them too later
01[13:28] {Threei}  all the while Germany says our parlament won't allow it
[13:30] {nemo} verdammten Kreuter
[13:36] {nemo} if aapl breaks to new highs, indexes likely have a prty
[13:41] {scottie} FL l .85 ?
[13:42] {scottie} late
01[13:42] {Threei}  if pulls back to around .80, secondary entey
[13:44] {scottie} in .86
[13:47] {scottie} tears over ebay
06[13:48] * Threei passes scottie a tissue
01[13:48] {Threei}  don't hold the whole box though, O need some too
[13:48] {scottie} should be more confident with my setups
01[13:48] {Threei}  O=I
01[13:49] {Threei}  FL works
[13:50] {scottie} half out
[13:50] {nemo} iwm and spy long here
[13:52] {scottie} out in full
01[14:06] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .90 break
01[14:08] {Threei}  formed top, formed descending channel.. if this is not a short, I dunno what is
01[14:09] {Threei}  jeez, will, stop feeding that cat, it'll never leave
01[14:09] {Threei}  A cougar sighting in James Bay this morning... police are patrolling the area
[14:10] {Will49} They sighted my wife
[14:10] {Will49} gotta keep her in the house
01[14:14] {Threei}  change FB to 26 break
01[14:17] {Threei}  (US) President Obama to meet with corporate CEOs on Wed, Nov 28th to discuss budget issues - financial press ***Note that Obama and various CEOs met two weeks ago to discuss the impact of the fiscal cliff.
01[14:17] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Optimistic a deal can be reached to avert the fiscal cliff; urges House to pass Senate tax-cut bill - Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY): Focus of budget talks must be on cutting spending, Republicans are open to new revenue with the promise of entitlement reform
01[14:23] {Threei}  give me 1:3 FB
01[14:30] {Threei}  1:1
[14:47] {Les} news JPM?
01[14:49] {Threei}  nothing fresh
01[14:49] {Threei}  looks to me long on .60 break
[14:51] {Les} l tna just noticed the finnies lagging
01[15:09] {Threei}  JPM 1:1
01[15:11] {Threei}  anyone's breathing?
[15:12] {cc_8} yes
[15:12] {Will49} barely
[15:12] {scottie} no
[15:12] {Les} considering it
[15:12] {Will49} kind of a breatless day
[15:12] {Will49} breathless
[15:13] {Will49} might also be a breastless day
01[15:14] {Threei}  hmmm
01[15:14] {Threei}  I refuse to have this kind of day
[15:14] {Will49} lol
01[15:14] {Threei}  1:2 FB
01[15:15] {Threei}  with these two life becomes better
01[15:17] {Threei}  how considerate: Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood calls off Tuesday demonstration in support of President Morsi to avoid clashes
01[15:25] {Threei}  oh well, no 1:1
[15:25] {scottie} out fb, took +.10 and +.20, tks Vad
01[15:25] {Threei}  :)
01[15:48] {Threei}  come to 1:2 JPM
01[15:50] {Threei}  good boy
01[15:50] {Threei}  out in full
[15:50] {Les} IWM HoD
[15:51] {Will49} CU L8TR guys
01[15:52] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:52] {Les} ciao will
01[15:52] {Threei}  have a good evening
01[15:52] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:52] {Les} cheers
[15:52] {scottie} gn

Friday, November 23, 2012

Market Week Wrap-Up

Markets rebound on hopes that Europe bailouts and Fiscal Cliff can find resolution


After several straight weeks of political concerns exerting downward pressure on equity markets, they snapped back smartly this week. European bourses had their best week of the year, shaking off a Moody's downgrade of France's AAA rating and the EU's failure to agree on a long term budget. Risk on sentiment was attributable to the hopes that leaders in Europe and the US could finally get their houses in order before the New Year. Negotiations on finalizing the revised Greek bailout package continued to grind ahead, with final details expected to be negotiated this weekend ahead of another Eurogroup conclave this coming Monday. This timetable would still allow Greece to receive the anticipated aid tranches in early December. Politicians in Washington were on a holiday break, so optimism from last week's bipartisan Congressional press conference still lingered, though tough negotiations are still ahead. Economic data helped sentiment too, starting with China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday posting its first growth reading in 13 months, possibly signaling the slowdown in Chinese growth has bottomed out. The German IFO Business Climate index showed its first rise in seven months, and US saw some more signs of strength in the housing market, with the NAHB Housing Market Index hitting a 6-year high and monthly Housing Starts coming in well above expectations. Trading in crude futures calmed this week as Israel and Hamas agreed to terms of a ceasefire on Wednesday, and so far the truce has held. Gold gained some ground as it tested its 50-day moving average on Friday, to end the week up 2%. Early indications from retailers are that Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday sales have gotten the US holiday shopping season off to a good start. Equity markets erased most of the losses seen in the last two weeks and had their best week since June: the S&P500 rose 3.6%, the Nasdaq added 4%, and the DJIA gained 3.3%, to close above 13,000 for the first time since November 6.

Moody's became the second credit-rating agency to strip France of its AAA rating on Monday evening. Moody's warned that a sustained loss of competitiveness and the failure to tackle structural problems prompted the decision to downgrade France. French Finance Minister Moscovici found a silver lining to the downgrade, claiming it would force leaders to agree to pursue reforms, however the development will have repercussions even though yields on French debt barely wavered in the aftermath of the move. To begin with, Moody's said the downgrade would impact the rating of the ESM/EFSF bailout facilities, and the EFSF was forced to delay the auction of three-year notes on Tuesday.

Hewlett-Packard shares collapsed to near 10-year lows after reporting accounting irregularities at its recently acquired Autonomy unit. On an adjusted basis, HP more or less met expectations in its Q4 results, however revenue fell nearly 7% y/y and after charges the firm racked up a huge quarterly loss, and Q1 EPS guidance was well below expectations. The firm took an $8.8B 'kitchen sink' charge in the quarter, blaming $5B of that on "serious accounting improprieties and outright misrepresentations" at Autonomy Corporation, which it acquired last fall. CEO Whitman said the board's due diligence had relied on financials audited by Deloitte, and said management had brought the accounting issue to the attention of US and UK regulators. A spokesman for the former Autonomy CEO shot back, saying the allegations were totally false and the due diligence was intensive.

Best Buy also had a terrible quarter, missing earnings targets by a very wide margin in its Q3 report. Overall sales were down on y/y basis and comps were equally bad. Executives continue to blame the poor overall economic environment, competition from online sites and customers holding back on purchases ahead of new product launches. Investors were clearly disappointed with Deer & Co Q4 results as well. Shares slid 4% after coming up short of consensus estimates on the bottom line and offering conservative guidance for 2013.

Saleforce.com was a noticeable bright spot among the week's earnings reports. Shares rose 8% after reporting Q3 earnings and sales exceeded expectations and the CEO said that the strong response to next generation cloud technologies will enable the company to surpass a $4B annual revenue run rate next year.

Energy markets went for a bit of a ride as traders watched headlines out of the Mideast closely. On Monday, the violence escalated as Israel bombed strategic targets in Gaza city and Hamas continued to lob rockets toward major population centers. As Israel called up tens of thousands of reservists in what was seen as a prelude to a ground incursion into Gaza, the rhetoric on both sides did little to quell the speculation of a larger conflict and oil prices rose sharply. By mid-week reports began to surface that the new Egyptian President had brokered a cease fire and as a result energy prices backed off, despite US stockpile data from both the API and EIA that indicated large draw downs across all three categories. For the week WTI and Brent each finished up more than 1.5%, but well off the Monday highs.

US Treasury markets spent much of the week on the defensive. Some speculated traders were unwinding positions ahead of thinner holiday shortened trade, as well as potentially reacting to some of the more positive comments made by Fed Chairman Bernanke. On Tuesday the Chairman suggested the financial crisis lowered the potential of US GDP growth below 2.5% and reiterated that the Fed has no means of offsetting the fiscal cliff, so Washington needs to find a solution. He also noted that a resolution to the fiscal cliff would have a positive impact on growth and the housing market has seen clear signs of improvement.

In Forex markets, the week began with a rise in risk appetite as sentiment that negotiations on a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff were productive which weighed upon the USD and JPY currencies. The EUR/USD started the week with a move over 1.2780 level. The currency was able to shake-off the French sovereign downgrade with growing optimism that Eurogroup would soon reach an acceptable agreement on Greece debt sustainability in order to release the next tranche payment before the country goes bankrupt in mid-December. The FX market was betting on a Greek solution with the Greek 10-year yield falling below the 16% level for its best post debt restructuring reading and the EUR/USD found the momentum to sustain a move above its 200-day moving average at 1.2804. The pair hit a 3-week high at 1.2915 after Friday's German IFO Survey registered its first month over month improvement in seven months.

The USD/JPY pair hit fresh 7-month highs while EUR/JPY cross tested above the 106 handle for 6-month highs. A number of factors were cited for the weaker JPY currency including a wider than expected Japan merchandise deficit, Japanese LDP opposition election platform and dealer chatter of M&A flows with rumor that Softbank had started buying USD for acquisition of Sprint with cited. The JPY was off its worst levels by Friday after LDP opposition leader Abe changed his FX intervention rhetoric that he was not thinking of currency intervention to weaken the JPY currency and wanted the BOJ to address strong yen through monetary policy.



  TradeTheNews