Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market Update: Chinese data provides a boost in an otherwise lackluster week

- There was sluggish, lower volume trading this week as global markets appear to have entered some late summer doldrums. Decent US and Chinese trade data and pretty solid July Chinese economic data helped tamp down fears about a Chinese economic slump. The US weekly jobless claims crossed a key level as the four-week average of initial claims fell to levels last seen before the official beginning of recession in November 2007. Europe saw good UK industrial production data and decent final July European services PMI.I However events looming later in September seemed to dampen enthusiasm, while the 1700 level in the S&P500 provided an insurmountable psychological barrier for US equities. Note that there has been much talk among analysts that next month will see a jump higher in market volatility, with a possible Fed taper, fiscal policy battles in Washington and elections in Germany all likely contributing to an unsettled situation. For the week, the DJIA fell 1.5%, the S&P500 declined 1.1% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8%.

- The emerging consensus for a reduction in Fed QE purchases starting in September was reinforced this week by comments from Fed officials Fisher, Evans and Lockhart. Known hawk Fisher said the Fed should start the taper in September unless it sees any disturbing data, while the more dovish Evans said he would not rule out a taper beginning in September. Lockhart commented that monthly NFP gains of around 180-200K would be the right level to start tapering.

- Trade data published by the US and China got plenty of attention this week. The US June trade deficit dropped 22.4% to $34.2 billion, the lowest level since October 2009 and well below May's $44.1 billion figure. Exports rose slightly to $191.2 billion. Analysts point out that the trade deficit is turning out to be much lower than assumed by the Commerce Department, which could put the second reading of Q2 GDP as high as +2.3% versus the advance estimate of +1.7%. The China July trade data saw imports up 10.9% y/y and exports to the US up more than 5%.

- The other July data out of China suggested talk about an economic slowdown may be overdone. Industrial production pushed out to +9.7%, a five-month high, complementing the good trade figures and the very good PMI data out last week. Auto sales and bank lending topped expectations, while CPI and PPI statistics indicated inflation is relatively contained. Electricity production, widely considered a more honest gauge of Chinese growth, surged 8.1% in to record levels. Commodities got a jolt in the arm from the data, with copper up more than 3% on the week.

- Data indicates that the great rotation out of bonds is continuing. In the week ended August 7, investors redeemed $4.0B from Treasury bond funds, equal to 1.3% of assets under management, making for the worst week of outflows on record for the asset class. In a note to investors, a BoA/Merrill analyst noted that in the same week, $10B flowed into developed market equities.

- Dow components IBM and Disney lost a lot of ground this week, weighing on the index. Disney mostly met expectations on decent y/y growth in its Q3 report, however it also disclosed that it would take a loss of $160-190M on the 'Lone Ranger' film a little more than a year after its big write off for 'John Carter.' IBM fell on reports that most workers in its US hardware unit would be required to take one week off with reduced pay due to continuing slack in markets. In addition, Credit Suisse cut IBM to underperform from neutral on Tuesday, warning that future organic growth will be challenging.

- Tesla has sustained 20% gains following the firm's stunning outperformance after both earnings and revenue absolutely crushed expectations in its second quarter. Margins were very good and deliveries hit 5,000 cars versus the firm's expectation for 4,500. Multiple analyst firms raised PTs and ratings on the name. The company is now valued at about $18B, approximately half the valuation of Ford, which prompted Forbes to ask whether it's not a case of "irrational exuberance."

- JC Penny gained approximately 10% on Thursday after reports that Bill Ackman was pushing the company's board to speed up the search for a new chief to replace interim CEO Ullman within a month or so. Ackman said CEO Questrom could return as chairman under the right conditions. Shares fell 4% or so after the board shot back that it disagreed with his position, prompting Ackman to demand a board meeting ASAP.

- Last week and into the first half of this week the 1.3300 level in EUR/USD provided insurmountable resistance. The US trade data on Tuesday was not able to propel the dollar higher, but the combination of disappointment with the BoE inflation report and a big gain in Chinese imports from the US in Wednesday's China trade report did the trick. EUR/USD broke above 1.3300 and tested 1.3400 on Thursday for the first time since mid June. Dollar strength didn't last and EUR/USD closed out the week below 1.3350. Analysts say that against G10 currencies (particularly the EUR), the greenback is having real difficulties and could come under pressure over the next few weeks, while the opposite is true for the currencies of nations running a current account deficit.

- The BoE Inflation Report was the highlight of the week in FX markets. The BoE has followed in the footsteps of the Fed and the ECB and offered formal policy guidance, pledging not tighten policy until unemployment falls below a 7% threshold. There were two caveats to this guidance: rates could rise even with unemployment above threshold if inflation was above 2.5% in 18-24 months or QE policies threatened "financial instability." GBP/USD fell 100 pips to approach the 1.5200 level in the immediate aftermath of the report before bouncing higher to the 1.55 area through the latter half of the week.

- The week-long slide in the Nikkei225 strengthened the yen. USD/JPY continued to retrace after the failure to hold above the 100.00 last week. The pair traded below 96.00 briefly on Thursday following the BOJ decision, which did not include any fresh stimulus measures. The yen closed around five-week highs on Friday.

- AUD/USD dropped to three-year lows below the 0.89 handle last week. Weak data and the China slow down has driven the aussie lower. The Australia Central Bank cut its main rate by 25 bps to 2.5% as expected on Tuesday, and the decision plus the better China data helped push AUD/USD back up to the 0.92 handle. Dealers noted that the statement was less dovish compare to a recent speech given by Governor Stevens in late July.




TradeTheNews

Aug 09 2013

Decently profitable day, thus finishing with 9 profitable days out of last 10. No complaints at all. Hopefully main server is up till Monday morning; we will update members as work progresses. 

09:08) cipher: morning Vad

(09:08) Threei: morning cipher

(09:09) Threei: found that e-mail?

(09:09) cipher: main srver is sill down?

(09:09) Threei: or, got today's?

(09:09) cipher: didn't check yet

(09:09) Threei: ok... you didn't...   We just sent an ipdate about main server, scheduled for Monday

(09:11) cipher: ok, found the first email you sent on Wed in junk folder  

(09:11) cipher: nothing from today

(09:11) Threei: how about today's?

(09:11) Threei: hmmm

(09:11) cipher: strange

(09:12) Threei: maybe isn't there yet, it was just about 5-10 min ago

(09:12) Threei: but if it goes in junk folder again, you may want to unblock our address manually

(09:13) cipher: I get all Sunday emails with no problem

(09:14) Threei: must be something in e-mail text that triggered spam filter

(09:15) Threei: folks, I am not very keen on cleaning the log. Please use your own nicks without profabity

(09:15) nemo: Sheesh...we get a few days to have a little fun, and we get Babushka'd

(09:16) cipher: let me guess... nemo?

(09:16) nemo: what gave it away?

(09:16) cipher: your broken russian  

(09:16) Threei: lol

(09:17) nemo: think of the irony of Vad asking us to use are real...ahem..."nick"

(09:17) nemo: our

(09:18) nemo: this frickin' rabbit begs for raisins day and night...sheesh

(09:18) nemo: Actually  "nemo" is in "demon".  I'm helping the reader with there pattern recognition skills  ;-)

(09:19) nemo: their

(09:19) dino: gm

(09:20) Threei: dino  

(09:20) nemo: Sgt. Killjoy

(09:25) RonS: good morning everyone

(09:25) Alexs: gm

(09:25) nemo: bbry looks weak, but near 61.8 retrace

(09:25) Threei: ron, alex  

(09:28) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx, fade today or continuation from yesterday ?

(09:28) nemo: yes

(09:29) Threei: whatever setups shape up...

(09:29) Threei: why guess

(09:29) Threei: so far short setup fporms. .80 break

(09:29) nemo: spy at daily pivot

(09:30) bbobr: gm

(09:30) Threei: bbobr  

(09:30) Cee_Cee_9: Will get short if breaks 25.70

(09:31) Threei: Short BBRY .80 break

(09:31) Threei: If holds .90

(09:32) Threei: Short GDX .85 break

(09:33) Threei: Invalidated

(09:33) Threei: BBRY half out

(09:33) Threei: stop to .85

(09:34) Threei: to .81 now

(09:35) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx still looks doable 

(09:35) Threei: what the

(09:35) Cee_Cee_9: yup

(09:37) Threei: wow

(09:37) Threei: no news

(09:37) Threei: who unplugged miners?

(09:37) Threei: BBRY 1:2

(09:39) dino: modn

(09:39) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx...that was quick

(09:40) dino: modn sm l .29

(09:40) dino: amx sm l .81

(09:40) Threei: quick and probably very painful

(09:42) dino: avg?

(09:42) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx bid dropping

(09:45) dino: avg hl l .48

(09:46) Cee_Cee_9: Iwm/spy, that was a reversal and a half from pre-market

(09:47) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx bid, need .50s again

(09:47) Threei: Short GDX .60 break

(09:48) Threei: If holds .70

(09:48) Threei: disregard

(09:48) Threei: let's short it right here, .64

(09:48) Threei: same .71 stop

(09:49) Cee_Cee_9: Auy session lows, need Abx to flush

(09:50) dino: modn stop .00-.29

(09:51) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx grrr, could not flush .50s

(09:51) Threei: no go

(09:54) dino: modn sm l .76

(09:54) Threei: Long C .85 break

(09:54) Threei: If holds .80

(09:58) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx, make up your mind

(09:58) nemo: 2nd Friday in August,,,maybe not

(10:00) Threei:  *(US) JUN WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: -0.2% V 0.4%E 

(10:01) Threei: WHOLESALE TRADE SALES M/M: 0.4% V 0.7%E 

(10:01) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx blah...

(10:02) Threei: what isn't

(10:02) dino: things are slow

(10:03) nemo: Iwm and Spy crawled back up into yesterday's range, probably it for the day

(10:04) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx, that was a waste of time, back to highs

(10:05) Cee_Cee_9: Gld sideways, miners slight bump...will revisit Gdx under 25.80

(10:06) Threei: Short CAT .20 break

(10:06) Threei: if holds .30

(10:06) dino: onxx drop

(10:07) Threei: quick 1:1

(10:07) dino: avg st .32 -.16

(10:08) Threei: 1:2

(10:08) Threei: 1:3, out

(10:09) Cee_Cee_9: Amed, looking for long entry once intraday bottom is in, testing $17 bid now.

(10:09) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx unreal

(10:16) Threei: short GDX .15 break

(10:16) Threei: if holds .20

(10:16) nemo: Lvs

(10:17) dino: avg hl l .20

(10:19) Cee_Cee_9: Amed decent bounce

(10:21) dino: 07 red

(10:21) Cee_Cee_9: Amed .70s

(10:21) Cee_Cee_9: $17.00 was solid intraday support

(10:24) Cee_Cee_9: Amed scalp >> http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/4762/0exd.jpg

(10:24) Threei: 1:1

(10:24) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx fast fall

(10:24) Threei: finally nailed the bastard

(10:25) Alexs: lol

(10:26) Cee_Cee_9: All out Amed if anyone else was in. +$0.59

(10:26) Threei: wtg

((10:27) Cee_Cee_9: now need this Gdx to drop some

(10:32) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx nice

(10:33) Threei: 1:2

(10:44) Threei: One of the most beautiful dogs I've met: http://goo.gl/ddEdRt

(10:49) Cee_Cee_9: Very nice range today Spy

(10:49) Cee_Cee_9: Those band tightening @ yesterday's close before the pop, great setup

(10:54) Cee_Cee_9: here i thought the S&p would be boring today

(10:57) Cee_Cee_9: Cranking lows Iwm/spy

(11:00) Cee_Cee_9: Miners @ highs

(11:04) Cee_Cee_9: Any news on this tank ?

(11:05) Threei: not really

(11:05) dino: airm odd for miss

(11:06) RonS: wane must do a lot of work:  Canada loses 39, 400 jobs as government hires wane

(11:06) Cee_Cee_9: Thats punishment on Spy/iwm for no news

(11:06) Cee_Cee_9: volume accelerating

(11:07) dino: cbrx sm s .79 

(11:07) Cee_Cee_9: meanwhile, miners completely unaffected

(11:07) dino: airm short trig brk of .00

(11:08) Cee_Cee_9: Long Tna 57.87 first scale

(11:09) Cee_Cee_9: Looking for 58.30 target

(11:11) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx @ Hod, beats me.

(11:13) Threei: works as a hdege to SPY today

(11:14) Threei: Update: Eiffel Tower reopened at 4:30 p.m. local time following a bomb threat

(11:14) Threei: whew... can climb back up

(11:16) Cee_Cee_9: Le fromage is safe, I repeat, le fromage is safe

(11:16) Cee_Cee_9: Tna catching some bids

(11:16) Threei: nemo, look dcc

(11:17) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx popped lid off Hod

(11:17) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx no wall till 26.50 at this rate

(11:19) Cee_Cee_9: miners on a major rally, thats rare

(11:21) Cee_Cee_9: Tna, that was short lived, still in. Second scale set for 57.37

(11:28) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx smacked that 26.50 before slight pullback

(11:29) RonS: becn pulpy little mover...

(11:32) dino: big miss

(11:32) RonS: from estimates...up yoy

(11:33) dino: miss by .09, miss on revs too, fwiw, which isn't much

(11:33) Cee_Cee_9: Look at that Amed from earlier, massive reversal off that $17

(11:34) dino: out amx .90, +.09 thing won't move

(11:34) RonS: when you firt typed amed thought mistyped amen

(11:34) RonS: first

(11:34) RonS: amx 1.9 bil sh float dino

(11:35) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx back to session highs. Iwm coming back

(11:35) dino: made a bid for another co is all i see

(11:36) RonS: ya but it's Carlos Slim who overpays for everything...especially bribes to get monopolies...

(11:37) RonS: std came out and said the amx integration w/ the purchased company was going to be very difficult

(11:38) dino: std, yuk

(11:40) RonS: Banco Santander...spanish bank w/ heavy so.american presence

(11:40) dino:    , horrible symbol

(11:41) RonS: but great emoticon...

(11:45) Threei: There is a strong whiff of risk aversion in the air this morning despite  better China data. Second consecutive month of declines in wholesale inventories  has driven stocks lower

(11:47) RonS: always thought here that declines were good, increases bad...

(11:47) dino: i try not to think. everyday talking heads have a reason, but never before the move

(11:49) dino: tomorrow they will say, markets are flat as its the weekend

(11:49) Cee_Cee_9: Tna so far so good, $0.20 for tgt

(11:50) RonS: but when will they report the search party for ese...

(11:50) Cee_Cee_9: Tna boom out 58.20 from 57.87

(11:50) Cee_Cee_9: 58.27*

(11:50) RonS: gj

(11:50) Cee_Cee_9: thx

(11:50) Cee_Cee_9: had me sweating for a bit

(11:51) Cee_Cee_9: it hit that 58.30 like clockwork before first bid drop

(11:56) dino: avg to flat, thing won't move

(12:04) RonS: avg special board meeting announced for Sept...modn dead too...

(12:04) Cee_Cee_9: If the pattern is correct, Spy tries to hold 169.10 neckline and gets another rip

(12:04) Cee_Cee_9: (2min chart)

(12:05) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx no mercy, new highs

(12:06) cipher has left.

(12:06) cipher has joined.

(12:10) Cee_Cee_9: looks like the I-h&s was $0.10 lower, but still going now Iwm

(12:11) dino: wwww hl l .00

(12:11) Cee_Cee_9: boom, there goes the pop on indexes on that slight pullback

(12:11) Cee_Cee_9: very very nice play there if anyone took it

(12:12) Cee_Cee_9: Tna all the way almost $1.00 from that first scale

(12:13) dino: out ave .42, +.22

(12:13) Cee_Cee_9: we should start seeing from profit taking in the miners imo

(12:18) nemo: any betts spy closes within earshot of 170?

(12:22) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx closing is the million dollar question

(12:22) Cee_Cee_9: Its the only one I cannot figure out today, no fade, no profit taking yet, nada. Miners still trying to hold up highs

(12:22) nemo: ahhh, today's female stock

(12:23) nemo: Vad still here?

(12:25) dino: out wwww .30, +.30

(12:27) nemo: http://read.bi/1exmb6d

(12:28) Cee_Cee_9: this Gdx just won't let go

(12:28) nemo: probably wants to test 27

(12:29) nemo: wow is it raining cats and dogs here today

(12:31) nemo: 27.03 is also the Weekly R1, 

(12:31) nemo: good place to shot if it gets there, although starting to see weakness now

(12:36) Cee_Cee_9: some fade here Gdx

(12:37) dino: we had that rain last night and early this morning nemo, enjoy it

(12:37) nemo: gdx should see support in .50 area

(12:37) nemo:  if not, back to vwap

12:43) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx come on baby, fade

(12:44) Cee_Cee_9: .50s I agree, that was previous wall

(12:52) nemo: maybe you should make the blog an image then instead

(12:57) Threei: ?

(13:01) Cee_Cee_9: nemo : http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/7672/3d72.jpg

(13:01) Cee_Cee_9: Let me know if that helps, its what I was looking at earlier when said this : Cee_cee_9: Gdx no wall till 26.50 at this rate

(13:03) Cee_Cee_9: Let me know if u were able to copy/paste that link (i dont think this chat allows u to click links)

(13:06) Cee_Cee_9: Funny hold Gld didn't actually do a %%%%% thing today

(13:12) Cee_Cee_9: Gld session lows, Gdx fading as well

(13:13) Cee_Cee_9: Sorry, not session lows on Gld, just pullback to 11:00am 

(13:14) Threei: watching for bounce to short

(13:14) Threei: hopefillu over .60, on recross

(13:15) Cee_Cee_9: Dust coming off bottom on Gdx fade

(13:15) Cee_Cee_9: looks good

(13:15) nemo: if gdx drops here .30ish

(13:16) Cee_Cee_9: I got 200 shares Dust, i never trade 200, but this thing scares the %%%%% out of me

(13:17) dino: why dust down w/gld down?

(13:18) Cee_Cee_9: Dust is inverse of Gdx

(13:18) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx does not follow Gld, it tracks the gold miners.

(13:18) Cee_Cee_9: Gld tracks gold futures

(13:19) nemo: Demon Spawn sicks his minions on Dino's brain

(13:19) dino: zolt spike

(13:19) Cee_Cee_9: Dust so far so good, Gdx fading nicely.

(13:19) Threei: grrr

(13:20) Threei: no bounce, straight drop

(13:20) nemo: Not sure Gdx gets to vwap

(13:20) nemo: bounce starting to setup there Ceeceerider

(13:20) Cee_Cee_9: My tgt on Gdx is 26.20 first support

(13:20) Cee_Cee_9: Should put Dust at ! $77s

(13:20) nemo: no will bounce at .30 Vwap

(13:20) Cee_Cee_9: ~ instead of !

(13:21) nemo: long signals setting up Gdx

(13:21) Cee_Cee_9: im staying short using Dust, stop @ entry $73.88

(13:22) Cee_Cee_9: tgt $77s / Gdx 26.20. Lets see how it goes

(13:22) nemo: In nomine Patre, et fili y spiritu sancti

(13:22) nemo: wow, that's really going against my grain

(13:24) Cee_Cee_9: I should stay praying?

(13:28) nemo: no man is a propet in his own land

(13:35) nemo: I'm having that Groundhog Day feeling

(13:36) dino: out modn .27, +.51

(13:37) RonS: gj

(13:37) nemo: index short signals again but weak

(13:46) dino: thx ron

(13:47) dino: airm s ave .20

(13:48) nemo: mmmhhhh....short signals were stronger than I thought

(13:48) nemo: hope you're out of Dust there Ceecee

(13:52) Threei: Short GDX .50 break if stays under .55

(13:52) Threei: If breaks it, new setups are every 5 cents

(13:55) dino: cov airm .79, +.41

(13:58) Threei: 1:1

(13:58) Cee_Cee_9: Die Gdx die die die

(13:58) Cee_Cee_9: go Dust go go go 

(13:58) Threei: lol

(13:58) Threei: boring but nicely profitable day

(13:59) dino: agreed

(13:59) Threei: if not for yesterday, we would have had 10 days winning streak

(13:59) Threei: yesterday needs to be taken outside and shot

(14:00) Threei: by firing squad of nemo, nemo and bow_before_zod

(14:00) nemo: and I got the hardware

(14:01) Threei: oh, and after execution yesterday should get the bill for ammo

(14:01) nemo: I'd rather a crucify them for a few days

(14:01) nemo: it would be fun to put it on a rotating cross you can turn upside down and introduce pinhole wounds to the carotids

(14:02) nemo: slicing the achilles would be interesting also

(14:02) Threei: these creative types...

(14:03) nemo: achilles injuries are suprisingly painful

(14:20) Cee_Cee_9: screw you Gdx, im done for the week

(14:20) Threei: lol

(14:21) nemo: higher high and all day uptrend

(14:31) Threei: Short GDX .65 break

(14:31) Threei: If stays under .70

(14:38) Threei: Obama signs student loan bill; law links interest rates to the financial markets

(14:38) RonS: ...the world is saved...

(14:39) Threei: ...again

(14:41) Threei: FCC said to have warned CBS and Time Warner to quickly settle their dispute or see regulators step in to settle it for them 

(14:42) dino: nue sm s .50

(14:46) Threei: Short GDX .70 break

(14:46) Threei: If holds .75

(14:47) nemo: might get .60 out of it

(14:48) dino: xon crazy

(14:48) dino: nue stop .60 -.10

(14:51) dino: rinsed

(15:04) Threei: meh

(15:08) nemo: well this afternoon is looking like yesterday afternoon.....that's enough of this...time to trim the nose hair

(15:10) dino: pmc drop

(15:12) dino: %%%%% missed pmc by nickle

(15:20) Cee_Cee_9: Obama "i dont want to meet with putin because gays this and gays that"

(15:20) Cee_Cee_9: Makes sense.

(15:27) Threei: ok last try

(15:27) Threei: Short GDX .85 break

(15:27) Threei: if holds .90

(15:28) Cee_Cee_9: Pmc some death

(15:30) Threei: change to ,90 break

(15:31) Threei: stop .95

(15:36) Cee_Cee_9: ok Gdx...i get it...u only go up today...u don't have to keep hitting fresh highs and appear on my scanner, %%%%% it

(15:37) Threei: lol

(15:38) Cee_Cee_9: Pmc prob worth a little scalp on that lawsuit afterbirth drop

(15:41) Cee_Cee_9: Round Ii Dust on monday, Gdx in channel territory 26.50 max 27.50

(15:41) Cee_Cee_9: we see profit taking at this level for a correction

(15:41) Cee_Cee_9: Dust tanked $30 since yesterday's open.

(15:42) dino: nemo, you still here?

(15:43) nemo: ?

(15:43) nemo: workin' the trimmer

(15:44) dino: i lost my favorites on free stock charts/vwap. what is site address? freestockcharts.com not opening

(15:44) nemo: what browser you using

(15:44) Threei: OK guys, here is to hopefilly room server being fixed before Monday morning

(15:44) Cee_Cee_9: Dino, use this one, its better : https://www.tradingview.com/

(15:44) Cee_Cee_9: tradingview i find it to be pretty good.

(15:45) Threei: have a great weekend, see you next week!

(15:45) Cee_Cee_9: ciao vad

(15:45) dino: i will look at it, but do yo have the other address?

(15:46) nemo: http://www.freestockcharts.com/     seems to be working fine for me

(15:47) dino: odd, i get a blank page

(15:48) Cee_Cee_9: if cannot get freestockcharts, get tradingview

(15:48) dino: thx

(15:48) Cee_Cee_9: if dont want tradingview, take a hammer at the pc

(15:48) Cee_Cee_9: should work after

(15:49) dino: idiot move, i deleted favorites and cannot get it back open

(15:49) Cee_Cee_9: thats what weekends are for dino

(15:49) nemo: you should be able to type freestockcharts.com  having said that, run restore on your Pc

(15:50) Cee_Cee_9: also, try on various browsers, chrome / firefox

(15:50) dino: did that but did not restore it

(15:50) nemo: you should still be able to get into freestockcharts....what browser u use?

(15:51) dino: explorer

(15:51) nemo: try chrome

(15:51) Cee_Cee_9: explorer = not even once

(15:52) Cee_Cee_9: ok folks, have a good one

(15:52) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx is fading and i cant look at it 

(15:52) Cee_Cee_9 has left.

(15:52) nemo: I told him earlier wait until 27

(15:52) nemo: Dino, it doesn't make sense you can't open Freestockcharts.com

(15:53) dino: its gives me the left side ads, but blank white where my charts were

(15:53) dino: installing chrome

(15:53) nemo: maybe you need to run the fsc reset program

(15:54) Alexs: it's java problem dino

(15:54) nemo: dcc dino

(15:54) nemo: shouldn't be java, runs on Silverlight

(15:55) dino: same w/chrome, ads but no charts

(15:56) Alexs: check silverlight

Aug 08 2013

Room server still down, garbled log (wrong setting in unfamiliar software) and a few too many stops - can you say "not our day?" Oh well, finishing two-weeks winning streak, was to be expected. 

Update on server fix: so far, looks like hard drive replacement and database restoring sets us for Monday to return to main room. Will send an update as work progresses. Thank you for your patience!

Aug 07 2013

Decent day albeit more boring than last week and a half. Most trades were scalps, with notable exception of CAT reversal trade. Also, we are having server troubles so using reserve room for now - those who missed alert e-mail, check your junk box. In case server is not fixed overnight, use reserve room again; check your sign-up e-mail for the address or e-mail us  if you lost it.

(Aug 07-10:23) Threei: 1:1
(Aug 07-10:24) Threei:  
(Aug 07-10:27) dino: hbc stop .57 -.17
(Aug 07-10:27) Threei: Long FB 38 break
(Aug 07-10:28) Threei: If holds .90
(Aug 07-10:28) Threei: Just got a woerd from tech re: server. I quote: "No seriously.... WTF????"
(Aug 07-10:30) cc_9: Grabbing some Sso here 84.65 for a market reversal.
(Aug 07-10:30) Threei: valid still FB
(Aug 07-10:31) Threei: 1:1
(Aug 07-10:32) dino: sbgi hl l .30
(Aug 07-10:33) cc_9: Spy looking for 168.90 for Sso tgt
(Aug 07-10:34) Threei: everything is just a scalp
(Aug 07-10:34) RonS: guess ese lost in the woods...
(Aug 07-10:37) cc_9: Spy 168.60 fighting hard to hold
(Aug 07-10:39) Threei: he doesn't read his e-mails Ron
(Aug 07-10:40) Threei: in fact he doesn't always remember he has e-mail set up
(Aug 07-10:41) cc_9: cc_9: going long Sso @ Spy 168.60 range first support (comment from earlier).
(Aug 07-10:42) cc_9: So far its the first level to try and hold as intraday support, now need to get over 168.80. No increase in volume yet, just ranging for now
(Aug 07-10:42) Threei: CVV: Ticks higher on circulation from clean energy blog that highlights next generation "carbon nanotube" battery technology, which CVD and others are developing
(Aug 07-10:42) cc_9: Here we go.
(Aug 07-10:43) Threei: thid is one of those things that either flops completely or doubles in one day
(Aug 07-10:43) dino: out sbgi .55 +.25
(Aug 07-10:43) cc_9: Spy clearing 168.80, $0.10 off tgt
(Aug 07-10:44) cc_9: Sso position +$0.20 so far
(Aug 07-10:49) dino: eog vsm l .25
(Aug 07-10:50) cc_9: Big spike Spy vol + fat finger
(Aug 07-10:50) cc_9: by fat finger I mean misprint
(Aug 07-10:55) cc_9: Giddy up 168.90
(Aug 07-10:56) cc_9: good goy
(Aug 07-10:57) cc_9: i mean, good boy
(Aug 07-10:57) nemo: Freudian
(Aug 07-10:57) nemo: in a Jewish sorta' way
(Aug 07-10:57) RonS: My Jewish girlfriend used to say that...
(Aug 07-10:57) nemo: what?  she call you a goy boy?
(Aug 07-10:58) RonS: goy toy...
(Aug 07-10:58) nemo: that was my next thought
(Aug 07-10:58) nemo: Ron the "dredel
(Aug 07-10:58) Threei: rofl
(Aug 07-10:58) dino: lol
(Aug 07-10:58) RonS: if she wasn't so top heavy she would have been a spinner...
(Aug 07-10:59) nemo: ahhh, big head, huh?
(Aug 07-10:59) dino: bazinga
(Aug 07-11:00) Threei: frikin FB
(Aug 07-11:02) cc_9: Anyone else played that Spy bounce off 168.60 ? prob my only trade for the day
(Aug 07-11:05) thomcbell: Long Setup Ddd -  45.01 break if holding 44.90
(Aug 07-11:07) thomcbell: ddd invalidated
(Aug 07-11:10) cc_9: at last, Spy @ 168.90 target. All out Sso 85.00 + $0.35.
(Aug 07-11:11) dino: regn vsm l .86
(Aug 07-11:11) Threei: Short GDX .35 break if holds .40
(Aug 07-11:13) thomcbell: ddd still on watch here
(Aug 07-11:15) thomcbell: rats on the Fb
(Aug 07-11:16) dino: silc partial l .63
(Aug 07-11:18) Threei: rats it is
(Aug 07-11:19) pragmatic has left.
(Aug 07-11:20) RonS: wow, guess he really is...
(Aug 07-11:20) Threei: lol
(Aug 07-11:20) Threei: no go
(Aug 07-11:24) Threei: Short Setup C .85 break
(Aug 07-11:24) Threei: If holds .95
(Aug 07-11:24) Threei: Change to .90 break
(Aug 07-11:24) Threei: aggressive
(Aug 07-11:25) Threei: same stop
(Aug 07-11:29) Threei: someone really wants to defend .90
(Aug 07-11:31) Threei: wow, what a determination
(Aug 07-11:38) Threei: finally
(Aug 07-11:47) dino: volume light again?
(Aug 07-11:48) Threei: about 10% under 3-month's average
(Aug 07-11:49) Threei: ok C, lose that .85
(Aug 07-11:49) Threei: and die
(Aug 07-11:49) dino: nvgn spike
(Aug 07-11:50) dino: ete spike
(Aug 07-11:52) Threei: Defense attorneys want to be removed from duties to assist Fort Hood shooting suspect while he 'seeks' death penalty
(Aug 07-11:52) Threei: why... assist him by all means necessary
(Aug 07-11:53) Threei: up to shooting him on a spot
(Aug 07-11:55) Threei: 1:1 is close enough
(Aug 07-11:55) Threei: half out
(Aug 07-11:55) Threei: stop to .91
(Aug 07-11:57) dino: etp spike
(Aug 07-11:58) nemo: Rax looks good short to 44.50 area
(Aug 07-11:59) Threei: NVGN halt, circuit breaker
(Aug 07-12:03) dino: funny how they only pick select stocks to halt
(Aug 07-12:04) dino: rexx spike
(Aug 07-12:05) RonS: ...depends if the mm firm is getting burned or making out...imo
(Aug 07-12:05) dino: rexx hl s .76
(Aug 07-12:11) dino: sbgi .60 l trig
(Aug 07-12:11) dino: rexx cov flat
(Aug 07-12:19) Threei: Second quarter $GOOG Android shipments were more than quadruple $AAPL iOS
(Aug 07-12:19) Threei: BBRY is nowhere to be found
(Aug 07-12:20) nemo has left.
(Aug 07-12:20) dino: 2.5% bbry, aapl 13%, goog/droid 67%
(Aug 07-12:23) Threei: sic transit gloria mundi
(Aug 07-12:23) Threei: C too turned out to be a scalp
(Aug 07-12:27) RonS: onxx selling...
(Aug 07-12:32) RonS: amgn buying...something about a deal between two being posted...
(Aug 07-12:32) dino: amgn 130/sh rumor
(Aug 07-12:32) Threei: Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc Said to be within a week of closing a deal with Amgen, terms still seen at $130/shr
(Aug 07-12:36) dino: vsm amgn .00
(Aug 07-12:38) nemo has joined.
(Aug 07-12:39) Threei: Short C .15 break
(Aug 07-12:39) Threei: If holds .20
(Aug 07-12:41) Threei: Invalidated
(Aug 07-12:42) dino: out amgn 107.30, +1.30
(Aug 07-12:42) dino: too soon
(Aug 07-12:45) Threei: Short C .20 break
(Aug 07-12:46) Threei: Of holds .25
(Aug 07-12:58) cc_9: Glorious Spy bounce from 168.60 support
(Aug 07-12:59) Threei: meh
(Aug 07-13:00) dino: mhfi drop
(Aug 07-13:01) dino: sm l .40
(Aug 07-13:01) thomcbell: prlb 63 break hf holding 62.80 -
(Aug 07-13:01) thomcbell: half lot
(Aug 07-13:01) thomcbell: already lost once
(Aug 07-13:01) dino: out mhfi .81, +.41
(Aug 07-13:21) RonS: test
(Aug 07-13:22) Threei: passed
(Aug 07-13:22) thomcbell: prlb 1:1
(Aug 07-13:22) Threei: wtg
(Aug 07-13:22) Threei: persistence wins
(Aug 07-13:42) Threei: Long CAT .50 break
(Aug 07-13:43) Threei: If holds .45
(Aug 07-13:46) Threei: Change to .45 break, if holds .40
(Aug 07-13:47) nemo: should hold .25 if indexes hold
(Aug 07-13:48) Threei: don't want to make .40 new trigger but .35 will be of interest
(Aug 07-13:51) Threei: Long CAT .35 break
(Aug 07-13:51) Threei: if holds .30
Aug 07-13:53) Threei: should be almost there
(Aug 07-13:54) Threei: if stops at .25, let it drop under ,.20 for the next setup
(Aug 07-13:54) Threei: although feels like bottom is in
(Aug 07-13:59) Threei: colume comes in... this is it
(Aug 07-13:59) Threei: run kitty, run
(Aug 07-13:59) Threei: or crawl
(Aug 07-14:08) Threei: come on
(Aug 07-14:09) Threei: 2 cents to 1:1, you couldn't make it?
(Aug 07-14:14) Threei: half out
(Aug 07-14:14) Threei: 1:1
(Aug 07-14:15) Threei: don't remember working this hard for 10 cents
(Aug 07-14:15) nemo: August
(Aug 07-14:16) Threei: 1:2
(Aug 07-14:16) Threei: 1/4 more out
(Aug 07-14:18) Threei: come on CAT, after all these hysterics you owe us 1:3
(Aug 07-14:21) cc_9: Amgn, holy crap
(Aug 07-14:21) nemo: market
(Aug 07-14:23) Threei: wtf
(Aug 07-14:23) Threei: no news
(Aug 07-14:25) Threei: closed last 1/4 on a trail
(Aug 07-14:25) Threei: first real trade today, lol
(Aug 07-14:29) dino: sbgi l .19
(Aug 07-14:29) Threei: Short GLD .30 break
(Aug 07-14:30) Threei: if holds .35
(Aug 07-14:33) dino: out silc flat
(Aug 07-14:40) Threei: 1:1
(Aug 07-14:41) Threei: formely almost flat day quickly moves into nicely profitable territory
(Aug 07-14:44) dino: out sbgi .31, +.12
(Aug 07-14:50) robbers has joined.
(Aug 07-14:52) Threei: hey robbers... found us?
(Aug 07-14:52) robbers: Lol, knew how to find you was just getting other stuff done.
(Aug 07-14:52) dino: sbgi l .40
(Aug 07-14:53) Threei:  
(Aug 07-14:53) robbers: Well, that might have been half the reason.
(Aug 07-14:53) Threei: lol
(Aug 07-14:54) cc_9: Gmcr some good volume here for a reversal
(Aug 07-15:01) cc_9: Vxx nearling intraday lows on the last hour.
(Aug 07-15:04) dino: out sbgi .49, +.09
(Aug 07-15:09) thomcbell: ddd - hilarous
(Aug 07-15:11) cc_9: Spy squeezing , this was the play I was looking for all day.
(Aug 07-15:12) Threei: Short BBRY .20 break
(Aug 07-15:12) Threei: if holds .25
(Aug 07-15:19) dino: sbgi l .59
(Aug 07-15:27) Threei: Texas federal judge declares Bitcoin a currency, says Bitcoin investments fall under US securities law
(Aug 07-15:28) dino: surprised they ae allowing bitcoin to exist
(Aug 07-15:29) Threei: http://www.engadget.com/2013/08/07/texas-federal-judge--bitcoin-currency-falls-under-us-law/
(Aug 07-15:30) dino: thought only govt could create currency
(Aug 07-15:32) Threei: to me, bitcoin is stullborn idea
(Aug 07-15:32) Threei: still
(Aug 07-15:35) dino: it seems a money laundering thing, and tax dodge
(Aug 07-15:36) Threei: opens the doors to that, in any case
(Aug 07-15:40) Threei: ok guys, no time left for a play
(Aug 07-15:41) Threei: as tech support still hasn't found the root of the problem, keep this page bookmarked
(Aug 07-15:41) Threei: we may have to use it tomorrow
(Aug 07-15:41) Threei: have a good evening, see you tomorrow
(Aug 07-15:42) dino: cya
Aug 07-15:44) _goinshort: Thanks!
(Aug 07-15:47) Threei: yw guys
(Aug 07-15:48) _goinshort: got to travel for a few days - will join up upon return
(Aug 07-15:48) Threei: cool beans, we will be here
(Aug 07-15:48) Threei: or there
(Aug 07-15:49) Threei: as far as servers go, lol
(Aug 07-15:49) _goinshort: it happens
(Aug 07-15:49) dino: have fun
(Aug 07-15:49) Threei: rarely but it does
(Aug 07-15:49) Threei: we have spare solution ready
(Aug 07-15:49) Threei: so no harm done
(Aug 07-15:50) _goinshort: good backup
(Aug 07-15:50) Threei: yeah, lacks some functionality but...
(Aug 07-15:51) _goinshort: lookin at your package deals - pick one out this weekend - be back trading tuesday
(Aug 07-15:51) Threei: feel free to e-mail if got any questions
(Aug 07-15:51) _goinshort: will do

August-September 2013 Outlook: Summer’s End

TradeTheNews.com  August-September 2013 Outlook:  Summer’s End

The Goldilocks environment has persisted into the summer, with central banks further augmenting their dovish talk as tepid data showed the slightest improving trend, not too hot, not too cold. Markets saw a bit volatility in June as Treasury rates popped after some hand wringing about the Feds QE tapering plan, but the worries quickly subsided as the Fed and other central banks went to new lengths to demonstrate that they are still in control. A parade of Fed officials stressed that the end of QE would not constitute tightening and was not a prelude to rate hikes. The ECB took up the banner of accommodation by providing forward guidance for the first time ever, indicating that rates will be at current levels or lower for an extended period of time. Similarly the BOEs new chief has promised to throw his own forward guidance on the stimulus bon fire in August. The BOJ has already impacted markets with its fresh accommodative policy, and there is some speculation that the Chinese central bank could offer up some new stimulus if China's economic growth slips any further.
It is becoming clear that the global recovery will be a long, slow, and multi-speed one, which will make the eventual unwind of extraordinary monetary easing extremely complex and fraught with peril. But for at least another couple months, markets will likely continue to ignore the longer term issue of exit policy, and enjoy the modest improvement in the economy as it faces only some moderately sized potential pitfalls, mostly on the political front.

Finally, Europe Gets Some Sun

Europe is getting more attention as its economy appears to have stopped getting worse, thanks largely to central bank interventions. At its July meeting, the ECB initiated forward guidance for the first time to further leverage its verbal intervention. This, combined with the promise of the OMT program (which has been enacted but never actually used), is just about the last line of verbal defense from the ECB. If economic data starts to deteriorate again, the central bank may have to raise the prospect of negative deposit rates again, which Draghi has said they are technically ready to implement, though the policy could have serious unintended consequences. First, negative rates could further squeeze the lending margins of banks, particularly in the weakened peripheral nations. Second, it may be seen as the last tool available to the ECB, and just the perception that its bag of tricks is empty may be enough to cause some market jitters on the notion that the central bank has nothing left to give if another crisis hits. If more economic weakness forces the ECB to take the plunge into negative rates, analysts believe they would have to make it a significant move, cutting rates as much as one percentage point to give the policy enough oomph to be impactful.

As the ECB waded into providing forward guidance, the BOE also stepped in to say that it will delineate a rate path this month. The details of the forward guidance are set to be released alongside the August 7 Inflation Report, as newly minted BOE Governor Carney starts to put his stamp on monetary policy. In future meetings Carney could also move to increase the banks asset purchase program again, as his predecessor advocated.

There are emerging signs that the European economy has finally hit bottom. The latest EMU unemployment reading ticked slightly lower to 12.1%, the first decline in almost two-and-a-half years, and Euro Zone July PMI Manufacturing edged above 50, the first growth reading in 24 months. There are still deep problems in the peripheral countries for example, the IMF just downgraded its forecasts for Spains unemployment, predicting it will remain above 25% for the next five years but on the whole it seem that the euro zone has seen its worst days. With the light at the end of the tunnel starting to become visible, the EMU has to do its best to stay true to the path of greater integration, despite a bevy of political challenges across the zone.

The European political scene has still has many potential flash points that could refuel the Euro Zone crisis. In recent weeks Greece was shepherded through the necessary steps to get its next bailout tranche, but there are still some questions about a future funding gap, while in Portugal the government survived a tiff between coalition members over fiscal strategy. Spanish PM Rajoy is comfortable enough with the path to economic recovery to asset that the recession is being left behind and the danger of a bailout has gone, but continues to contend with the taint of a government slush fund scandal. Perhaps the most troubling situation is in Italy, where former PM Berlusconi is prodding his party to threaten to break up the fragile coalition government that took weeks to form after an inconclusive election in April. If President Napolitano refuses to grant Berlusconi a pardon from a one year sentence that was recently affirmed by the high court, the government could fall apart.

The biggest planned political event of the next few months will be the German federal elections on September 22. Chancellor Merkel has treaded through the minefield of the Euro Zone crisis with extreme caution in an effort to avoid the fate of many of her former peers: more than half of Euro Zone governments have been tossed out and replaced by the opposition during the last four years. Because of a collapse in support for its junior coalition partner (the FDP party), Merkels current coalition government does not have a clear edge in the polls over the opposition coalition. Merkel is, however, polling far ahead of Peer Steinbruck as the preferred Chancellor candidate, and seems likely to retain her post, though it may require forming a grand coalition with Steinbrucks center-left SPD party.

Elections in the heart of Europe have changed the course of Euro Zone policy already. For example, shortly after France elected a Socialist leader for the first time in nearly two decades, President Hollande redirected continental policy toward growth measures to counterbalance strict austerity programs that had been focus of the crisis recovery plan until then. Once the German election has been settled, Merkel will be free to exercise a more muscular agenda in Europe, including working on the structures and institutions that will build more Europe as she likes to say.

One hurdle to clear will be the German Constitutional court decision due out this fall on the legality of participation in the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European Central Bank's bond-buying program (OMT). Last September the court gave a preliminary verdict that participating in the ESM was permissible, though it insisted on the German Parliament retaining veto rights. The court has a track record of bowing to German government authority when it comes to issues of European policy, and in hearings this June the court president indicated that the ECB's conditionality on OMT could help draw the line between fiscal and monetary policy distinctly enough for it to be a good middle way.

Monsoon Season

Leaders in the Middle Kingdom are also looking for a middle way that would allow them to keep growth near target levels without significant new stimulus efforts as the economy has gotten soggy. To that end Chinese leaders have given a lot of lip service to the official economic forecast. Within the last month China Premier Li Keqiang has acknowledged that the official 7.5% GDP forecast may be vulnerable, but vowed that the government would not allow growth to fall below 7% this year, while Finance Minister Lou has stated that there will not be major fiscal stimulus this year, but only some fine tuning of policy. Indeed, in the early days of August the PBoC resumed reverse repo operations for the first time in six months, which the Chinese press deemed a form of mini stimulus aimed at stabilizing growth.

Recent data has given Chinese leaders some relief. The latest official non-manufacturing PMI put in its 17th straight month of expansion and the manufacturing PMI is still showing growth. Outside measures are not as favorable, however, as the July HSBC manufacturing reading hit an 11-month low, raising more questions about whether the official government data is wholly reliable.

The dampening Chinese economy is impacting trading partners, especially Australia, which has long benefited as supply line for the Chinese economic miracle. Even as Chinas demand for raw materials has subsided, Australia has also been sandbagged by foreign central bank policy that has led to a strengthening Aussie dollar, squeezing domestic profit margins and thus the tax base. This pressure may demand a response from the government and central banksome analysts are predicting the RBA may need to launch its own QE program and slash rates to near zero to avert a recession. The ailing economy may also lead directly to the ouster of PM Rudds Labor party in favor of the center-right opposition in the upcoming September 7th election.

Japans own upper house election, held last month, solidified Prime Minister Abes political powerbase, leading him to declare that Japan's will to change has returned, and that the revolving door of politics is over. He also used the occasion to give assurances to partners in other advanced economies that he will shift his focus to the third arrow, reform programs to achieve growth through stimulating private investment and boosting Japans economic competitiveness. Now that the PM has been given the political capital to move forward with the economic plan that bears his name, Abe must show the determination to enact deep reforms in the Japanese economic system, some which may be unpopular with his own party, including agricultural trade reforms sought for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). Already Abe is hedging on a planned consumption tax increase, saying the government will study the data in the next few months to determine if the proposal to double the consumption tax over the next two years will go ahead as planned.

The BOJ is still projecting confidence. Recently Governor Kuroda stated that the BOJ has taken enough measures to achieve its 2% inflation target and is ready to make policy adjustments as necessary. Last month the central bank also raised its economic assessment for the seventh straight time, the longest streak on record. Having done its part for Abenomics, the BOJ now needs to see its monetary measures supported by fiscal policy actions.

Bernanke's Last Summer

BOJ officials might be concerned by the American example, where fiscal policy inaction has substantially hampered the economic recovery. Congress has just started a month-long recess, but before members left Washington, they previewed the debt ceiling battle which is about to restart. With the sequestration taking a bite out of economic growth and economies in Europe and Asia still shaky, Washington has an opportunity to shore up fiscal policy with a new look at a grand bargain before the US fiscal year ends on September 30. But little has changed in D.C. politics since the last time leaders kicked the can on March 1 (when the sequester took effect), and a mild improvement in the economy has given them even less urgency to reach a deal.

Congressmen may also have lost some of the sense of urgency to deal with fiscal issues because there has been little consequence for their feckless behavior. On the 2-year anniversary of S&P cutting the US sovereign rating, most US stock indices are notching record highs, despite the ongoing political gridlock that was the main impetus for the ratings downgrade. In June, thanks largely to the sequesters indiscriminate budget cuts and the Feds growing stimulus, S&P brought its outlook back to stable from negative, and now predicts a 2013 debt ceiling deal will get done at the last minute. The other ratings agencies, Fitch and Moodys, still have their AAA ratings on a negative outlook, but dont seem to be in any hurry to test the reaction to a second US sovereign downgrade, which could either be shaken off like the first, or finally trigger the sea-change in fixed income markets that some expected after the S&P downgrade.

Despite the fiscal drag and gridlock in Washington, the US economy has worked its way toward modest growth, doing better than almost every other advanced economy. The housing market has gathered strength amid tight inventories of homes for sale, and home prices have appreciated, floating many homeowners who were underwater back to the surface, which in turn has helped buoy consumer confidence readings. Prospective home buyers will be watching mortgage rates closely, as any additional spurt higher in rates could cool off the market.

Despite the housing strength, economic growth remains lackluster in the US and the jobs market is still on a very slow ascent for the fourth year of a recovery. Average payroll additions are still lagging behind the 200 thousand or so needed to match new workers in the workforce each month, and unemployment has been ticking lower largely based on a declining workforce participation rate. Many of the new jobs that are being created are in lower wage brackets, leaving many people underemployed. There is growing evidence that the unemployment problem is now largely structural, which could make any additional stimulus efforts ineffective.

The Fed may be tacitly acknowledging this by gearing up for the end of QE3. Chairman Bernanke used the June meeting to link the reduction of QE to the Feds economic forecast, indicating tapering would start in the fall and conclude in mid-2014 when unemployment will be around 7%. Thus if the taper doesnt begin by December, it would strongly imply the Feds forecast had slipped again, creating some credibility problems for the central bank. It would also open the Fed up to more potential mistakes in messaging, possibly throwing out another lead balloon like the comments that evoked the June Taper Tantrum.

Therefore, along with the economic data, the FOMC calendar now plays into forecasting the potential for tapering QE. The next FOMC meeting, on September 18, includes a press conference that would allow Bernanke to explain in detail any decision to taper. If the data are still too languid to begin slowing QE in September, then the mid-December meeting would offer Bernanke his last opportunity to launch the taper at a regularly scheduled press conference. Otherwise the entire unwinding of extraordinary stimulus will be left up to Bernankes successor.

Speculation about succession at the Fed will likely become a growing distraction in the weeks ahead, as the Fed will have to devote more attention to giving assurances that the next Chairman will not rock the boat and can handle the implementation of the exit strategy. But as Mr. Bernanke noted himself, he is not the only person in the world who can manage the exit.

Vice-Chairman Janet Yellen may cement her frontrunner status for the top job at the Jackson Hole symposium in late August, where she is scheduled to moderate a panel especially if her remarks offer up additional policy guidance. Its expected that Yellen would follow Bernankes approach closely, and possibly be even more dovish than Helicopter Ben, which would please most stimulus-addicted Wall Street denizens, though some fear she might be slow to react if inflation reared its head. The other top candidate is former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers who is a friend of the White House but seen as somewhat abrasive for the collegial style of the FOMC and may be a more unsettling choice for market participants. Two other former Fed Vice-Chairs, Donald Kohn and Roger Ferguson, are seen as dark horse candidates who could get a second look if the intense press speculation and political lobbying around Yellen and Summers end up hurting their candidacies.

Into the Fall

While many of the pressing issues mentioned above will be discussed by leaders at the G20 summit in Russia on September 5-6, a change in the tenor of the global outlook may not become clear until October. By then, Germany will have settled its election (as will Australia), Japan will have let fly the third arrow of its recovery plan, the new US fiscal year will start with a debt deal or another frustrating kick-the-can extension, and we may even know the name of the next Fed Chairman (the last time around Bernanke was re-nominated by Obama in late August 2009).

Economic data across the globe could be better, but for the first time in four years theres a sense that things are improving or at least stabilizing in most regions. Europe has arrested its fall, though its political tests will continue, and if the euro creeps back towards 1.35, the ECB may reintroduce negative rate-talk. In Japan, PM Abe now has full control of the government and now must put up or shut up, with the knowledge that the uncomfortably rapid rise in the 10-year JGB interest rate in mid-May could be only a small taste of whats to come if the government loses control of its experimental recovery plan. China has to prove its capable of hitting its economic growth target, even as it carps about losing its edge due to Yuan appreciation. While in the US, the next test for markets will be how treasury rates react to the impending curtailment of QE3, and how much of that is already factored in. Historically August and September have been two of the worst months for stocks over the last thirty years, but money keeps flowing into equities, and analysts keep ratcheting up their targets (Piper just raised forecasts for the S&P500 to reach 1,850 by year end and 2,000 next year).

Central banks have created a period of stability with a vast cushion of monetary largesse to support the global economy. But four years into the recovery process, if the data dont start showing a more summery aspect, markets could lose some confidence, and fall into the fall.


CALENDAR

AUGUST
5: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
6: US Trade Balance; Japan Prelim GDP
7: BOE Inflation Report; German Trade Balance and Industrial Production; China CPI/PPI
8: China Industrial Production; China New Loans; Japan Current Account; BOJ policy statement
9: China Trade Balance

13: US Retail Sales; UK CPI
14: German, French, Italian prelim GDP; German ZEW; US PPI
15: UK Retail Sales; US CPI; Philly Fed Index
16: US Housing Starts and Building Permits; Prelim University of Michigan Sentiment

19: Japan Trade Balance
21: US Existing Home Sales; FOMC Minutes
22: German Ifo Business Sentiment; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
23: German and French PMI readings; UK GDP 2nd reading; US New Home Sales
24: G20 ministerial meetings

26: US Durable Goods Orders
27: US Consumer Confidence
28: US Pending Home Sales; Fed Jackson Hole Symposium begins
29: US Prelim GDP
30: Euro Zone Unemployment; US Chicago PMI
31: China Manufacturing PMI

SEPTEMBER
1: China final HSBC Manufacturing PMI
2: US ISM Manufacturing PMI; China Non-Manufacturing PMI
4: US Trade Balance; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
5: ECB and BOE policy statements; Japan final GDP; G20 Leaders in St. Petersburg (Sept 5-6)
6: US Unemployment and Payrolls; tentative release date for US Treasury currency report
7: China CPI/PPI; Australia Parliamentary election

8: China Industrial Production; China New Loans
9: German Industrial Production; BOJ policy statement; Japan Current Account
10: China Trade Balance
13: US Retail Sales; US PPI; Prelim U of M Consumer Confidence

16: US Industrial Production
17: US CPI
18: German ZEW; BOE Inflation Letter; US Housing Starts and Building Permits; FOMC policy statement and Press Conference
19: US Existing Home Sales; Philly Fed Index; Japan Trade Balance

22: German federal election
23: German Ifo Business Sentiment; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
24: European Flash Manufacturing PMI readings; US Consumer Confidence
25: US Durable Goods Orders; US New Home Sales
26: UK final GDP; US final GDP; US Pending Home Sales; Japan Industrial Production
27: U of M final Consumer Sentiment

30: US Chicago PMI; China Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC final Manufacturing PMI; End of US Government FY13






TradeTheNews

Aug 06 2013

Another nicely profitable day despite low volume. No interesting charts, just cookie-cutter routine "another day in the office" trades.

Session Time: Tue Aug 06 00:00:00 2013
[09:13] {dino} gm
01[09:13] {&Threei}  morning dino
[09:15] {bbobr} gm
01[09:16] {&Threei}  bbobr :)
[09:16] {cipher} gm
01[09:16] {&Threei}  cipher :)
[09:19] {nemo} nice, spy traded 1/4 it's "normal" pre-market volume.  Yesterday SPY didl less volume than it did on the HALF day on Xmas Eve
[09:20] {nemo} What's worse?  Ron is here
01[09:20] {&Threei}  makes our profit even more remarkable
[09:24] {+cc_9} Good morning everyone.
[09:24] {nemo} your binky NUGT in the toilet this morning there 9er
[09:25] {+cc_9} Implying I own NUGT
01[09:25] {&Threei}  cc9 :)
[09:25] {nemo} no, I said "binky"
[09:25] {nemo} no lines to read between
[09:25] {nemo} my girlfriend does shit like that...drives me crazy
[09:26] {Alexs} gm
01[09:26] {&Threei}  alex :)
[09:26] {nemo} Funny, women never say exactly what they mean, your supposed to read between the lines, but I always say what I mean, so she figures she has to read between the lines...drives me apeshit
01[09:26] {&Threei}  there is anywhere to drive still, nemo??
[09:26] {+cc_9} EXPE continuing its climb today, see if we can get passed $51
[09:26] {RonS} gm everyone, even mr. surly
01[09:26] {&Threei}  ron :)
[09:26] {nemo} Yeah, outta sorts without my binky Les
01[09:27] {&Threei}  GDX...
01[09:27] {&Threei}  I kind of hoped it would wait for us before losing 25
01[09:27] {&Threei}  maybe bounce to short into
[09:28] {ese} gm
01[09:28] {&Threei}  ese :)
01[09:30] {&Threei}  ugh
[09:30] {+cc_9} EXPE breaking out, so far so good
01[09:31] {&Threei} Short Setup: C  .60 break
01[09:32] {&Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {+cc_9} EXPE $51.50, no wall on 60min, plenty room
01[09:34] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .85 break
01[09:34] {&Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:34] {&Threei}  Invalidated
[09:35] {dino} regn vsm l .26
01[09:35] {&Threei}  GDX is around 1:3 from original intended short
01[09:35] {&Threei}  if that's not "grrr"
[09:36] {ese} L holx .68
[09:37] {nemo} kors weak
01[09:38] {&Threei}  C 1:2
[09:38] {robbers} Out C in full, thanks.
01[09:38] {&Threei}  :)
01[09:38] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .70 break
01[09:38] {&Threei}  If holds  .65
01[09:38] {&Threei}  out C in full .32
[09:39] {dino} out regn 262.26, +3.00
[09:39] {dino} buck early
01[09:41] {&Threei}  1:1
[09:42] {robbers} Out GDX at 1:1, good call.
[09:42] {+cc_9} EXPE blowing through $52
[09:43] {+cc_9} big volume behind this early move on EXPE vs previous days/during same time
[09:45] {ese} out holx .06 +.38
01[09:46] {&Threei}  wow
01[09:46] {&Threei}  who shot gold?
01[09:46] {&Threei}  and silver
01[09:46] {&Threei}  and miners
[09:46] {RonS} and retail
01[09:46] {&Threei}  (US) Preview: Aug IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism expected at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)- Consensus expectations: 47.5e v 47.1 prior
01[09:47] {&Threei}  whoever did this, we can safely assume he used a machine gun
01[09:48] {&Threei}  considering that I was looking to call GLD short at .20 break, this is infuriating
01[09:48] {&Threei}  second big trade that got away by triggering sudenly before shaping up for ultimate setup
01[09:51] {&Threei} Short Setup: BBRY  .70 break
01[09:51] {&Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:52] {&Threei}  aggressive for .65
[09:55] {dino} regn vsm l .05
01[09:55] {&Threei}  GDX two-sided setup, .50 - .60
01[09:56] {&Threei}  I think I found what killed gold
01[09:57] {&Threei}  there is a talk about revising 2H GDP up tp 2.5%, thanks to improved trade balance
[09:57] {dino} out regn 257.15, +2.10
01[09:57] {&Threei}  2Q, sorry
[09:59] {dino} nobody playing regn i see...took 5 bucks out of it so far
01[09:59] {&Threei}  (US) Preview: Aug IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism expected at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)- Consensus expectations: 47.5e v 47.1 prior
01[10:00] {&Threei}  wtg dino
[10:04] {dino} dhi going for 19.30 gap area imo
01[10:09] {&Threei}  BBRY 1:1
01[10:10] {&Threei}  no go GDX
[10:14] {+cc_9} Market tanking, EXPE holding up, still bullish on this one for the next few days
01[10:15] {&Threei}  People with the highest IQ's are 4 times more likely to suffer from depression due to increased brain activity
01[10:15] {&Threei}  oh, that's why I am always happy... zero brain activity
[10:15] {nemo} or living with the 84% of humans with average to less than average intelligence
01[10:16] {&Threei}  it must be nemo who sent me this anonymous e-mail yesterday... "what doesn't kill you... should have"
[10:16] {nemo} no, but that is my general take on marriage
[10:17] {nemo} So, I was talking to the rabbit...
01[10:19] {&Threei} Short Setup: GLD  124 break
01[10:19] {&Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:19] {ese} wow dino.....regn..............nice work there
[10:20] {ese} i mean ....look at the spread.....
[10:21] {nemo} yeah, dino's rorschach charts
[10:21] {ese} 50 ceents 30 cents 60 cents shoa
[10:21] {RonS} C 2 sided .90, .00?
01[10:21] {&Threei}  I like short side more Ron
01[10:22] {&Threei}  would take short trigger and ignore long
[10:22] {dino} ty ese
01[10:22] {&Threei}  “In his speech about the economy, President Obama said we’ve all been distracted by phony scandals, and it’s time we started getting distracted by the phony recovery.”
01[10:22] {&Threei}  ~ Jay Leno
01[10:23] {&Threei}  BBRY baby
01[10:23] {&Threei}  1/4 more out
01[10:24] {&Threei}  stop to .66
01[10:30] {&Threei}  C 1:1
01[10:30] {&Threei}  good spot ron
[10:30] {dino} gj
01[10:31] {&Threei}  Citybank quickly become my favorite bank
01[10:31] {&Threei}  very good one to short {G}
01[10:31] {&Threei}  (mistype is intentional to prevent legal action)
[10:31] {RonS} out C +.15
01[10:33] {&Threei}  1:2
[10:33] {RonS} oof
01[10:33] {&Threei}  I am patienter Ron
01[10:33] {&Threei}  now I am out
01[10:33] {&Threei}  +.27
[10:33] {nemo} what, Ron fall out of his walker?
[10:34] {nemo} don't you have one of those remotes you wear around your neck?
01[10:34] {&Threei}  no, he sent it to me to equip with plastic explosive and hold it for you, to send it when you are senile and can't walk... he kept the remote though
[10:35] {nemo} C4 or Semtech
[10:35] {nemo} ?
01[10:35] {&Threei}  I haven't recieved the package yet
01[10:35] {&Threei}  I'll let you know
01[10:38] {&Threei}  - NYSE volume 135M shares, about 11% below its three-month average; - NASDAQ volume 360M shares, about 8% below its three-month average
[10:38] {+cc_9} EXPE setting up for another leg, s/l @ 50.60 looks solid
01[10:42] {&Threei}  stop to .61 now
[10:43] {dino} dynt sm s .93
[10:43] {dino} regn partial fill l .10
[10:57] {ese} L adm .65 L holx .58
01[10:57] {&Threei} Long Setup:  IW,  .30 break
01[10:57] {&Threei}  IWM
01[10:58] {&Threei}  If holds  .22
01[10:59] {&Threei}  not ready yet
[11:00] {nemo} mos bid
[11:01] {dino} out regn 256.75, +1.65
[11:02] {ese} eeeeeeeeeeeyeohhhhhhhhhhhhhzzzzzzaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
[11:02] {ese} the man is dangerous
[11:03] {dino} ;-)
[11:04] {ese} thinkin about a get rich retire soon scheme there dino
[11:04] {dino} jack drop
[11:04] {dino} "soon", not happening, another 15 i figure
[11:04] {ese} what the heck is a jack drop............some kinda stock play i've never heard of ?
[11:06] {dino} symbol j a c k
[11:06] {dino} or the golf balls
[11:06] {dino} jack wants 40.30 gap
[11:06] {RonS} aka Jack in the Box burgar chain that also runs Quizno's a cmg wannabe...
[11:17] {Alexs} you still in BBRY trade Vad?
01[11:18] {&Threei}  last piece, yes
[11:18] {Alexs} k
[11:20] {dino} tdw drop
[11:22] {RonS} jack reports wed ah
[11:23] {nemo} went long sso but doesn't look like we'll get a vwap run
[11:23] {nemo} finnies of course went to vwap
[11:25] {RonS} GM cuts starting price of Volt plug-in hybrid sedan by $5,000 in bid to juice sales
[11:28] {nemo} maybe will get vwap
01[11:37] {&Threei}  ugh IWM
[11:37] {nemo} yeah, but slow going up
[11:38] {ese} all time high price if adm gets by 38.10....be interesting to see what happens after that
[11:39] {ese} needs market help
[11:46] {dino} regn pulling back. 255 area has been decent bounce area
[11:47] {RonS} what a stupid headline:  U.S. stocks fall as investors await address from Fed Bank of Chicago chief
[11:48] {nemo} wow KORS pulled all the way back and then bounced almost all the way to the highs
[11:54] {ese} out adm .09 +.44
[11:54] {RonS} gj
[11:54] {ese} trying to keep up with the jones's...in this case the dino's
[11:55] {+cc_9} SCTY another $44.40 wall test
[11:55] {RonS} usain bolt couldn't keep up with Dino
01[11:56] {&Threei} Short Setup: JCP
01[11:56] {&Threei}  .80 break
01[11:56] {&Threei}  If holds  .85
[12:02] {ese} out holx .66 +.08
[12:02] {dino} just lucky guys
[12:10] {dino} nothings moving. volume light again/
[12:10] {dino} ?
01[12:12] {&Threei}  yeah
01[12:12] {&Threei}  meh jcp
01[12:19] {&Threei}  did you know that Switzerland has fallout shelters for everyone residing within its borders. The coverage is 114 per cent.
[12:20] {RonS} how about the cows?
01[12:20] {&Threei}  we will have to ask Les
[12:21] {ese} and not 100%
[12:21] {+cc_9} DUST triple digits :D
[12:22] {dino} nemo, am i seeing things or doe dynt look like it wants to drop?
01[12:24] {&Threei}  .50 break should be DYNT's trigger
[12:24] {dino} in from .93, .55 area keeps reversing it
[12:27] {dino} distracted me from regn entry
[12:32] {dino} bam!
[12:35] {dino} cov dynt .23, +.70
01[12:37] {&Threei}  :)
[12:38] {dino} ty
[12:42] {ese} hmmmmmm topic set by threei.............hmmmmmmm...who put him in charge......Nemo?   was that you?
[12:42] {+cc_9} did anyone see this USU on daily ? jeeeez...
[12:43] {ese} ya glanced at it
[12:44] {ese} it's done for for a while unless traders want to short it
[12:45] {+cc_9} YELP sitting on 30min support range (51-52)
[12:46] {+cc_9} ese, I agree, but with these pos stocks lately (SPEX / SR / USU) nothing is out of question
[12:46] {+cc_9} hell, SR refuses to fade, holding that $13 even on air
[12:46] {dino} don't forget dynt
[12:47] {dino} 2.90-7.94, no news, junkie
01[12:48] {&Threei}  remember those e-mails I get now and then and quote the most ridiculous ones?
01[12:48] {&Threei}  fresh one arrived
01[12:50] {&Threei}  I read last week's trading logs. Yes, results are impressive, you do prove it's possible to day trade profitably. But I must ask... why do you waste so much time doing nothing? If you are DAY trading, surely there must be stocks to trade all the time??
01[12:50] {&Threei}  I prove? there is something toprove? lol
01[12:51] {&Threei}  can't help but remember Livermore,
01[12:51] {&Threei}  something along the lines:
01[12:51] {&Threei}  wall Street fool is a fool who feels he must trade all the time
[12:51] {ese} bad sign......frothy top
01[12:51] {&Threei}  nah, not yet
01[12:52] {&Threei}  this bull still has ways to go
[12:52] {ese} ya figur
01[12:52] {&Threei}  it's just one of those beginners that instead of asking questions feels he is qialified to tell
01[12:53] {&Threei}  somehow many think that they have this god given right to understand market and trading without any education
01[12:53] {&Threei}  just were born with it, you know
[12:54] {dino} yes, everybody envies the traders lifestyle. they don't understand it takes talent
[12:54] {ese} yes...and some hard friggin work
01[12:55] {&Threei}  funny that it doesn't happen in any other field
01[12:55] {&Threei}  never heard of anyone who would think they can do a brain surgery
[12:55] {dino} i usually say, if its so easy why doesn't everybody do it
01[12:55] {&Threei}  or fly 747
01[12:56] {&Threei}  or build bridges
01[12:56] {&Threei}  without special education
01[12:56] {&Threei}  In market, it's everyday's occurence to meet people who think they should understand it by some kind of intuition granted from high heaven
01[12:57] {&Threei}  my favorite:
01[12:58] {&Threei}  "I thought of taking your courses but the coast stopped me"
01[12:58] {&Threei}  to which my favorite answer is:
01[12:58] {&Threei}  you think education is expensive? try ignorance
01[12:58] {&Threei}  coast = cost
01[12:59] {&Threei}  funny enough, it's people who think nothing of losing thousands on one idiotic trade who won't spend $300 on the course
01[13:01] {&Threei}  (US) Fed's Evans (dove, FOMC voter): Fed will taper later this year and end QE asset buys in mid 2014; would not rule out taper beginning in September- Interest rates to remain low well past time when unemployment drops below 6.5%, wants to see inflation closer to 2.0% before raising rates.
[13:04] {dino} dynt spike
01[13:07] {&Threei}  this e-mail from nemo tells me someone needs to take the bottle away:
01[13:08] {&Threei}  I’m not saying I am batman. I’m just saying no one has ever seen me and batman in the same room.
[13:08] {nemo} bored, huh?
01[13:08] {&Threei}  yes, lol
01[13:10] {&Threei}  A federal government seismologist said Monday that a weekend earthquake off Vancouver Island is a “reminder” that a much bigger event is going to hit B.C. at some point.
01[13:10] {&Threei}  idiot
[13:11] {RonS} lol
01[13:11] {&Threei}  “We know that much larger earthquakes have occurred in the past and we know that they will happen again in the future,” he said.
01[13:11] {&Threei}  But the science has not advanced to the point where such an event can be predicted.
01[13:11] {&Threei}  cut his frikin funding
[13:12] {dino} stating the obvious isn't he
01[13:13] {&Threei}  on a taxpayer dollar
[13:20] {ese} L avg .20
[13:26] {nemo} well, spy should trade more shares than yesterday
01[13:26] {&Threei}  taking 40 min break, stop in place on BBRY... at .61
01[13:26] {&Threei}  and cover at .41
[13:44] {ese} out avg .36 +.16
[13:46] {RonS} ebix blood
[13:46] {RonS} $EBIX said to be reviewed by US for possible money laundering"" Bearish
[13:48] {ese} ahhhhhhh
[13:49] {RonS} hearing from a Seeking Alpha article (unconfirmed)...
[13:52] {nemo} A-Fraud has to be one of the more repulsive athletes I've ever seen
[13:59] {dino} dynt, none avail here anymore
[14:00] {thomcbell} and he wasnt even good while taking them
[14:00] {thomcbell} when mcguire took them he was seeing beachballs
[14:00] {+cc_9} DYNT available on our end.
[14:01] {ese} sgi
[14:04] {dino} ebix sm l .95
[14:07] {dino} out ebix .35,
[14:07] {dino} +.40 ty ron
[14:09] {+cc_9} AAPL breaking session lows
[14:09] {dino} regn lod
[14:10] {+cc_9} EBIX looks like double bottom on daily from June 17th's tank
[14:11] {dino} was looking at that...same article basically
[14:11] {+cc_9} wow, its blowing up now, big volume
[14:11] {nemo} or the start IC&H
[14:12] {dino} reverse h&s
[14:13] {+cc_9} They report earnings on the 9th, but someone said just killed any possible "momo" with this old news.
[14:14] {ese} L phh .4489
01[14:14] {&Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .40 break
01[14:14] {&Threei}  If holds  .35
[14:15] {dino} regn gap around 248
[14:17] {dino} alxn drop
01[14:20] {&Threei}  1:1 is close enoigh
01[14:20] {&Threei}  half out
[14:22] {robbers} Good call.
01[14:22] {&Threei}  ty
01[14:22] {&Threei}  maybe it will make my correspondent forgive me for taking 40 min break...
[14:22] {nemo} ?
01[14:23] {&Threei}  one who thinks I have to trade every frikin second
01[14:23] {&Threei}  1:2, out in full
[14:24] {dino} really gets to you when i send those emails, :)
01[14:24] {&Threei}  lol
01[14:24] {&Threei}  I quote about 1/10 of them
01[14:25] {&Threei}  you don't want to read those who scream "why there is no tape reading in Techniques of Tape Reading"
01[14:25] {&Threei}  I made a template answer, not to retype it every time:
[14:26] {ese} ya!!!! like why is that eh?
01[14:26] {&Threei}  If you went into troubles to find out what tape reading is, you'd find plenty of tape reading in Techniques of Tape Readng
[14:27] {ese} lol
01[14:27] {&Threei}  who told them all tape reading is staring at prints scrolling?
[14:27] {ese} read!   are you kidding.....man thats tough work
01[14:27] {&Threei}  and it's possible to trade off that?
[14:28] {+cc_9} EBIX now nearing $10.00. Hell of a comeback who ever took a trade
01[14:28] {&Threei}  why don't they demand that we use teletype if they want be that literal
[14:28] {ese} lol
[14:28] {dino} regn vsm l .00
01[14:28] {&Threei}  never mind that every classic book of tape reading from 1930 uses charts, just as mine does
01[14:29] {&Threei}  but hey... if they want to use every word in its literal sense, I invite them to do some scalping
[14:38] {dino} fang drop
[14:39] {dino} out regn 254.40, +1.40
01[14:39] {&Threei}  wtg
[14:39] {dino} ty
01[14:40] {&Threei}  @TheTweetOfGod
01[14:40] {&Threei}  Keep your friends close and your asthma inhaler closer.
[14:44] {dino} ebix back above 10
[14:45] {ese} Lphh avg .44
01[14:45] {&Threei}  closing BBRY
01[14:45] {&Threei}  feels bottomed'
01[14:52] {&Threei} Short Setup: FB  .35 break
01[14:52] {&Threei}  If holds  .40
[14:52] {nemo} http://bit.ly/1ctH1Wl
01[14:55] {&Threei}  meh
[14:56] {+cc_9} EBIX, it pains me to watch now
[14:56] {+cc_9} nearing $11
[14:56] {nemo} ags spiking
[14:57] {nemo} pot and mos wtf?
01[14:57] {&Threei}  Uralkali Hearing chatter Uralkali is considering rejoining Russian potash cartel
[14:58] {nemo} Putin kill a coupla' family members?
01[14:58] {&Threei}  Ebix, Inc. Comments on False and Inaccurate Assertions in Bloomberg Article - Ebix has issued the following statement in response to an article regarding the Company: - Ebix is disappointed that Bloomberg published its erroneous article despite the Company's clear and unambiguous statements that allegations of money laundering were false, inaccurate and likely to cause significant financial harm to Ebix shareholders.
[15:00] {RonS} took mos .90 to .45 ese size thanks guys...
[15:01] {nemo} hold your nose trade
[15:01] {RonS} yep...figured if it did what it down going down it could do it back up
01[15:02] {&Threei}  nice ron
[15:03] {dino} gj ron
[15:04] {RonS} ty
[15:08] {nemo} Hey Ron, nice bullet ya' dodged there
[15:09] {nemo} To this day I am amazed at the amount of noise a 2-3 lb. rabbit makes running around the house
[15:09] {RonS} ...Dino lucky...new phrase...
[15:09] {nemo} good one
[15:10] {nemo} Just got a call wanted to know if I want to make extra money as a Visa Mastercard referral rep.  Frickin' scam artists
[15:12] {RonS} ...Nemo's reply:  whadya think I'm an idiot 'cause I talk to a rabbit?
[15:12] {nemo} No, it was "How the fuck did you get this number?"
[15:13] {RonS} caller's reply:  ...the rabbit...
[15:13] {nemo} I get pretty rude (I know that's hard to believe)from the get go with these assholes
[15:13] {RonS} :D
01[15:23] {&Threei} Short Setup: GM  .05 break
01[15:24] {&Threei}  If holds  .10
[15:25] {dino} calling it a day, very good one. thx for ideas. gn
01[15:26] {&Threei}  take care dino, gj
[15:26] {dino} u2 buddy
[15:40] {ese} out phh .53 +.09
[15:40] {ese} done for the day.......cya tomorrow
01[15:41] {&Threei}  packing my tent as well
01[15:41] {&Threei}  quiet ending, but nicely profitable day again
01[15:41] {&Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:41] {&Threei}  see you tomorrow

Aug 05 2013

Hitting 1:3 as I post it. BBRY, formerly known as a biggie... Who said August had to be boring?

And another 1:3er:

Session Time: Mon Aug 05 00:00:00 2013
[08:51] {dino} gm. i miss much last week?
01[08:52] {&Threei}  morning dino
01[08:52] {&Threei}  fantastic week actually
01[08:52] {&Threei}  surprisingly
01[08:53] {&Threei}  how was your cruise?
[08:55] {dino} cruise was awesome
01[08:55] {&Threei}  :)
[09:16] {RonS} gm...did everyone see the post by that supposed hard case Nemo?
01[09:16] {&Threei}  ron :)
01[09:16] {&Threei}  what post?
[09:16] {nemo} which one?  the singing doggie?
01[09:16] {&Threei}  ah
01[09:17] {&Threei}  have you seen mine, with underwater camera in crab trap, ron?
[09:17] {nemo} So, my bank's website has a listing of non-surcharge ATMs you can use outside of their ATMs.  Those institutions won't charge you, but my bank charges you for using their ATMs...go figure
[09:17] {RonS} have not
01[09:18] {&Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/vadym.graifer/posts/454909331274681
[09:19] {ese} morning
[09:20] {ese} took friday off
01[09:20] {&Threei}  ese :)
01[09:20] {&Threei}  was a great day for us
[09:20] {ese} thats why I did it..........i've just been draggin you down
01[09:21] {&Threei}  umm, not really... whole last week was good, lol
01[09:21] {&Threei}  so you might have been trying... but failed
[09:22] {nemo} frickin' rabbit is hitting me up for raisins
[09:22] {nemo} and I thought tortilla chips were bunny crack
[09:23] {RonS} nice video 3i, good color and great resolution
[09:24] {nemo} Vad's got crabs!
01[09:24] {&Threei}  not my filming :)
[09:25] {cipher} gm
01[09:25] {&Threei}  cipher :)
01[09:25] {&Threei}  watching TZA as possible first play
01[09:26] {&Threei}  SPY looks breakdownish
[09:27] {RonS} those technical terms are so confusing...
[09:27] {Alexs} gm
01[09:28] {&Threei}  alex :)
01[09:28] {&Threei}  I am working of the dictionary Ron
01[09:29] {&Threei}  of = on
01[09:30] {&Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .55 break
01[09:31] {&Threei}  If holds  .48
01[09:32] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .75 break
01[09:32] {&Threei}  If holds  .82
01[09:37] {&Threei}  no go GDX
03[09:37] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
[09:38] {nemo} think tna or sso are buys here
[09:38] {nemo} finnies not cofirming though
[09:39] {+cc_9} Morning folks.
01[09:39] {&Threei}  cc9 :)
01[09:39] {&Threei}  narrow opening
01[09:40] {&Threei}  trail TZA to under .50
01[09:42] {&Threei} Long Setup:  MOS  41 break hl
01[09:42] {&Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:43] {+cc_9} SR, can we see sub $12 today...i've waited long enough
01[09:44] {&Threei}  1:1
01[09:45] {&Threei}  TZA half out
01[09:45] {&Threei}  stop to .54
01[09:46] {&Threei}  MOS 1:2
[09:46] {+cc_9} STXS closing in on double digits
[09:49] {dino} idcc sm l .01 gappy
01[09:49] {&Threei}  crucial information:
01[09:49] {&Threei}  Zimbabwe's main stock exchange index plunges 11% in 1st trading day after official Mugabe victory - @Reuters
01[09:51] {&Threei}  OK, both are closed on trails
[09:52] {nemo} expe
01[09:53] {&Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .40 break
01[09:53] {&Threei}  If holds  .50
[09:54] {dino} idcc stop .71 -.30
[09:55] {dino} hbc sm l .01
01[09:56] {&Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:56] {&Threei}  let's wait out the numbers
01[09:59] {&Threei}  *(US) JULY ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 56 V 53.1E
01[10:00] {&Threei}  argh... GLD got away
01[10:01] {&Threei}  had in mind changing trigger to .50 but numbers crushed it before I could finish the thought
[10:01] {dino} usu spike
01[10:07] {&Threei} Short Setup: BBRY  .50 break
01[10:07] {&Threei}  If holds  .55
[10:10] {+cc_9} SR continues to defy the simplest law of physics
[10:10] {+cc_9} All with a laughable volume
[10:11] {nemo} like trying to understand women
01[10:12] {&Threei}  actually, couple years ago one of IBM supercomputers did understand them. It's just that they changed their mind right that minute
01[10:12] {&Threei}  1:1 BBRY
[10:12] {dino} scty spike
[10:13] {nemo} spy the last to close the gap
[10:15] {RonS} took hbc .90 to .15 +.25  thanks dino
[10:17] {dino} out hbc .26, +.25
[10:17] {dino} np, gj ron
01[10:17] {&Threei}  nice one guys
[10:18] {dino} cboe drop
01[10:18] {&Threei}  1:2
01[10:18] {&Threei}  what a cute little reversal
01[10:18] {&Threei}  on a cute little stock that used to be big and intimidating
[10:18] {dino} idcc lod
01[10:18] {&Threei}  sic transit gloria mundi
[10:19] {dino} cboe sm l .60
[10:24] {+cc_9} SR / STXS 15min charts, feel like im looking at .pk stocks
01[10:24] {&Threei}  visual: http://goo.gl/rmXCtC
[10:29] {+cc_9} EXPE breaking out on the 30min chart.
[10:30] {nemo} yeah shook me out on the drop to vwap
[10:31] {+cc_9} plenty room on the upside once it clears $51
[10:31] {nemo} yeah,
[10:31] {nemo} coh too
[10:33] {+cc_9} Yup, same idea
[10:33] {dino} cboe stop -.16
[10:34] {dino} rinsed
[10:42] {dino} spex
01[10:43] {&Threei} Short Setup: C  .10 break
01[10:43] {&Threei}  If holds  .15
[10:47] {+cc_9} SPY pulling back at Friday's highs
[10:49] {ese} L met .95
01[10:49] {&Threei}  stop is .13 now
01[10:50] {&Threei}  risk is negligible
[10:53] {dino} spex crazy
01[10:53] {&Threei}  half out
01[10:53] {&Threei}  1:1 is close enough
01[10:54] {&Threei}  stop to .11
[10:54] {dino} bah hl l .04
[10:56] {RonS} Booz Allen Hamilton sets lender call this afternoon, no details yet
[10:56] {nemo} BIDU bounce point
[11:09] {+cc_9} EXPE still pushing on 30min
[11:11] {ese} out met .81 -.14
[11:12] {dino} evep hl l .33
[11:12] {+cc_9} YELP fading on 15min
01[11:12] {&Threei}  poor GLD
[11:13] {ese} L bah .03
[11:14] {RonS} L oink  .??
[11:14] {ese} dino.....just noticed your in bah as well
01[11:16] {&Threei}  stop to .06
[11:18] {ese} dino.....ya there.............am also eyeing HST
[11:19] {ese} L hst .31
[11:19] {dino} i'm here, i will look at it
01[11:20] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .40 break
01[11:22] {&Threei}  If holds  .35
01[11:23] {&Threei}  1:1
01[11:24] {&Threei}  like fish in a barrel
[11:24] {ese} L met .83
[11:25] {nemo} wtf mlnx
[11:25] {dino} was just looking at that
[11:25] {dino} mlnx is a freak
01[11:26] {&Threei}  1:2
[11:27] {robbers} Another good call on GLD.
01[11:27] {&Threei}  can I go home?
01[11:29] {&Threei}  1:3, out
[11:29] {robbers} You are home, but we might let you take a bathroom break.
01[11:29] {&Threei}  sigh
06[11:30] * &Threei puts nemo down to "kill first" list
[11:30] {nemo} I'm honored
[11:30] {robbers} Kill him and pee on the remains.
[11:30] {nemo} can we be a bit more creative with corpses here
[11:31] {nemo} o.k. where'd this come from
[11:32] {+cc_9} BIDU @ session lows, major fade since open
[11:34] {dino} spex lighting up my 07 scanner like 4th of july
01[11:37] {&Threei}  lol
01[11:37] {&Threei}  visual: http://goo.gl/qUM29x
[11:38] {ese} wow
[11:38] {ese} spex
[11:38] {+cc_9} before even checking, that looks like a tough one to borrow
[11:39] {dino} none avail for me
01[11:40] {&Threei}  US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, FOMC alternate): In favor of tapering in the fall, investors cannot rely upon a "Fed put"- Taper needs to be orderly, must gingerly unwind the balance sheet. - Fed owns a significant slice of critical markets at the moment, is at a delicate moment. - Excess liquidty could provide plenty of kindling for inflation, may also be inspiring the misallocation of capital. - Markets may be too used to having Fed stimulus.
[11:40] {nemo} significant slice of critical markets...we're fucked
01[11:40] {&Threei}  Une voix dans le desert
[11:41] {nemo} Think I'll see how Whitey Bulger's trial is going
[11:41] {RonS} on no...someone figured it out...Voting Fisher for rocket scientist
01[11:42] {&Threei}  nemo... this is one hawk against all the people with two left brains
[11:42] {dino} sds hl l .95 stop .73
01[11:42] {&Threei}  thewy will press until there is njothing to press anymore
[11:42] {nemo} I understand, but he just admitted, they're basically in the position of the London Whale
01[11:43] {&Threei}  and when collapse looms karge, their major effort will be about how to pin it on the right
[11:43] {dino} baby beluga
[11:43] {nemo} DDD sseting up short
01[11:43] {&Threei}  needless to say, right is doing fabulous job making themselves an easy target
01[11:44] {&Threei}  btw, someone posted an article in FT over the weekend with cute analogy: austerity during financial crisis is like prescribing a diet to anorexic
01[11:45] {&Threei}  to which I couldn't help but answer:
01[11:45] {&Threei}  borrowing more in debt crisis is like prescribing a cake to morbidly obese
01[11:46] {&Threei}  C 1:2
[11:47] {dino} bah st .82 -.22
[11:48] {nemo} .75 bid on ddd
[11:51] {robbers} Out C in full, thanks.
01[11:53] {&Threei}  :)
[12:00] {+cc_9} EXPE still flirting with HOD, very bullish 30min
[12:03] {ese} out met .60 -.25
[12:03] {ese} damn it
[12:24] {nemo} wow halfway through the day and spy has done 24.2 million
[12:32] {dino} epam spike
[12:32] {nemo} 20 day average is 102 million, 65 day is 134 mil
[12:32] {dino} hl s .56
[12:38] {dino} out evep .55, +.22
[12:44] {+cc_9} SR drop already you pos
[12:44] {+cc_9} Been waiting for days, time to flush
[12:45] {+cc_9} MOS @ session higs
[12:53] {ese} L some bah avg .02
[12:57] {dino} gmcr spike
[12:58] {dino} sm s .99
[12:59] {RonS} careful gmcr 25% float short and up after Barron's puked on them
[12:59] {dino} ok
[12:59] {nemo} yeah, looks like it wants to challenge the high on the daily
[13:03] {dino} gmcr stop -.25
[13:03] {nemo} I see 82 in it's future today
[13:08] {dino} sds to .99
[13:09] {ese} bah still alive and well dino
[13:09] {ese} holdin up against an spy tank
[13:11] {dino} got stopped bah earlier
[13:12] {dino} 3 rinses, that was 1
[13:15] {nemo} this is a reasonable bounce area for the indexes
[13:16] {nemo} that fed news kinda took the wind out of the sails today
01[13:16] {&Threei}  you mean Fisher's comments?
[13:17] {nemo} yeah...there wasn't much commitment anyway today
01[13:17] {&Threei}  I don't know if anyone takes it seriously
01[13:17] {&Threei}  he is but one voice... chairman will set the policy
[13:17] {nemo} really?  I had no idea
01[13:17] {&Threei}  and chairman will have two left brains, two left arms, two left legs
01[13:18] {&Threei}  you also had no patience to wait for the end of the sentence
[13:18] {nemo} and soon, maybe even a vagina
[13:18] {dino} epam stop/cov .70 -.14
[13:18] {nemo} Ron must not be paying attention
01[13:18] {&Threei}  now, this same fisher said:
01[13:19] {&Threei}  - Have not seen any name that has surfaced as a potential Fed Chair nominee that he woud not be happy to serve under, Bernanke has set a high bar, ultimate standard for a Fed chair is Volcker
01[13:19] {&Threei}  high bar eh?
01[13:19] {&Threei}  and the names floating are Yellen and Summers
01[13:19] {&Threei}  and he will be happy with them
01[13:19] {&Threei}  shrug
[13:21] {+cc_9} SPEX pulling off what SR needs to pulloff
[13:21] {+cc_9} a damn fade.
[13:22] {dino} out sds .00, +.05
[13:27] {dino} mcox?
01[13:28] {&Threei}  no news that I see
01[13:28] {&Threei}  1999-early 2000 all over again
01[13:28] {&Threei}  stocks triple in one day
[13:29] {+cc_9} BIDU nice comeback so far
[13:29] {+cc_9} SR closing in on $13, just tank already
[13:30] {nemo} yeah, BIDU bounced right at the 23.6 of recent swing low before the gap up
[13:31] {ese} bidu is one of the hardest stocks there is trade imo...spread is always huge
[13:31] {nemo} yeah, like a secretary's ass
[13:32] {dino} lol
06[13:32] * &Threei sends nemo a Good Manners, Volume 1 for study
[13:43] {dino} cboe hl ml .40
[13:44] {RonS} ml?
[13:45] {dino} long, typo
01[13:46] {&Threei}  "maybe long"
01[13:46] {&Threei}  come on Ron
01[13:47] {&Threei}  {nemo} Now, can you send me a secretary with big ass too, to read that Good Manners volume to me out loud?
01[13:47] {&Threei}  sigh
[13:48] {RonS} classic...lol
01[13:49] {&Threei}  Les, where are you
[13:56] {+cc_9} Just a thought, but have you guys considered trading DUST as opposed to GDX/GLD ?
[13:56] {+cc_9} The intraday swings are unmatched.
[13:56] {+cc_9} even a couple hundred shares make a good trade.
[13:57] {nemo} volume a little thin
01[13:57] {&Threei}  20-30 cents wide spread stock is a very different trading style
01[13:59] {&Threei}  I prefer hunting for 20-30 cents move on a 1000 shares of thick stock to a dollar - dollar and half om 200 shares of this thinnie
[14:06] {ese} omg.............tooth decay......yes definitely more exciting
[14:11] {+cc_9} If you anticipate a move on GDX, you get the same exact move on DUST. Obviously if you are wrong, then you are wrong.
[14:12] {+cc_9} I understand what you're saying though.
01[14:14] {&Threei}  it's different ways of risk contr'ol
01[14:14] {&Threei}  and setups are much easier to see on thicvk stocks
[14:14] {RonS} ok, nemo...hit 'em
01[14:14] {&Threei}  thin ones can make an "accidental" move that tags your stop with more ease than thick ones
[14:15] {RonS} ...nemo:  same as on thick women...
01[14:15] {&Threei}  lol
[14:15] {nemo} eh...mouth's a mouth
[14:19] {ese} damn Canadians......it's them causing the liquidity issues her.....there all on flippin holiday
[14:20] {ese} out bah 2k worth .21 +.19
[14:20] {dino} gj
[14:20] {ese} tks
[14:28] {+cc_9} SR lol what just happened
[14:29] {+cc_9} 200k shares just moved it $2.25
[14:35] {dino} out cboe .69, +.29
01[15:00] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .45 break
01[15:01] {&Threei}  If holds  .50
01[15:07] {&Threei}  aggressive for .40
01[15:08] {&Threei}  (G20) White House Press Sec Carney: Decision on whether President Obama will attend the summit in Russia will be made within a few days- Note: Some Congressional members had called on President Obama to boycott the G20 summit in Moscow in protest of the Snowden asylum **Note: Russia hosts the G20 Leaders Summit in St.Petersburg this September
01[15:08] {&Threei}  not that Russia cares much if he doesn't go, but sheesh, show some spine and just don't go
[15:13] {+cc_9} A-Rod suspended for 211 games, market moving news
[15:13] {dino} how many games in a year
[15:13] {RonS} wow, thought it should be only 210...
[15:14] {RonS} ...thinking 183 or 186...
01[15:17] {&Threei}  I see no correlation between GDX and DUST on this call
01[15:17] {&Threei}  GDX drops, DUST went up from the moment of GDX trigger
[15:20] {dino} jack spike
[15:20] {dino} break .25 short btrig
[15:24] {RonS} gj
[15:29] {nemo} well this should be our daily run to all time highs
01[15:46] {&Threei}  covering high as time becomes an issue
01[15:47] {&Threei}  stop to .46
[15:47] {dino} \jack s .41
[15:49] {dino} cov jack .32, +.09
[15:50] {dino} calling it a day, thx all
01[15:51] {&Threei}  take care dino
[15:52] {dino} u2, gn
01[15:56] {&Threei}  closing the rest
01[15:56] {&Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:56] {&Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:57] {Alexs} thanks Vad you actually made a maximum of that day :)