Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Aug 13 2103

About flat to slightly positive day, as decent morning was followed by scalp/stop pattern.


Session Time: Tue Aug 13 00:00:00 2013

[08:48] {dino} gm
01[08:49] {&Threei}  morning dino
[08:50] {nemo} I suppose I'm chopped liver
01[08:57] {&Threei}  hmm?
[09:20] {nemo} anybody ever watch the old cable tv show "Deadwood"?
[09:20] {dino} yes
[09:21] {nemo} Yeah, I started watching it...really excellent
[09:22] {dino} good show
01[09:25] {&Threei}  ASTM halt
[09:25] {cipher} gm
01[09:26] {&Threei}  cipher :)
[09:26] {RonS} hello
01[09:26] {&Threei}  ron :)
[09:28] {bbobr} gm
01[09:29] {&Threei}  bbobr :)
[09:29] {Alexs} gm
01[09:29] {&Threei}  alex :)
01[09:29] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .75 break
01[09:29] {&Threei}  If holds  .85
[09:31] {RonS} sm L val 66.10
01[09:32] {&Threei}  stop to .81
01[09:33] {&Threei}  ha;f out
01[09:33] {&Threei}  stop to .76
01[09:34] {&Threei}  1:2
01[09:34] {&Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:34] {dino} oww hl l .43
01[09:35] {&Threei}  that painful?
01[09:35] {&Threei}  1"3
01[09:35] {&Threei}  out in full
[09:39] {+cc_9} at last GDX
[09:39] {dino} oww stop .33 -.10
01[09:40] {&Threei} Long Setup:  C  .15 breal
01[09:40] {&Threei}  If holds  .05
01[09:42] {&Threei}  change to .10 break
01[09:43] {&Threei}  If holds  51
01[09:44] {&Threei}  1:1
01[09:44] {&Threei}  stop to .04
01[09:46] {&Threei}  to .09 now
[09:46] {+cc_9} IWM reversal
[09:47] {+cc_9} IWM weaker than SPY today fwiw
[09:50] {dino} ihs
[09:55] {dino} cst hl s .37
01[09:56] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .70 break
01[09:57] {&Threei}  half out
01[09:57] {&Threei}  stop .76
01[10:00] {&Threei}  *(US) JUN BUSINESS INVENTORIES: 0.0% V 0.2%E
[10:00] {dino} ihs sm l .30
01[10:03] {&Threei}  (US) Analyst note yesterday broke the embargo on Jackson Hole agenda (Aug 22-24) - financial press- Tier-1 firm analyst comments that the agenda does not feature speeches from any major fed officials, which will likely mean markets will pay less attention to the symposium than it has in the past.
[10:04] {dino} good
01[10:04] {&Threei}  lol
[10:05] {+cc_9} market falling off a cliff
[10:06] {dino} cov cst .97, +.40
01[10:07] {&Threei} Long Setup:  C  .95 break
01[10:07] {&Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:10] {&Threei}  meh
[10:11] {+cc_9} SPY 168.75 = reversal in indexes
[10:11] {Alexs} GDX stop .71 now?
[10:11] {+cc_9} Lets see if catchs a bid
[10:12] {+cc_9} & 104.10 on IWM
[10:19] {dino} htwr sm l av .71, thinny
01[10:20] {&Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .60 break hl
01[10:20] {&Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:21] {&Threei}  any SPY help, easy 1:3er, maybe more
[10:23] {dino} dal drop
01[10:23] {&Threei}  1:1
[10:24] {dino} dal l .25 trig
01[10:24] {&Threei}  that's all?
01[10:24] {&Threei}  oh well
01[10:25] {&Threei}  dino, had your morning pain passed?
01[10:26] {&Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .20 break hl
01[10:26] {&Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:26] {dino} out dal .80, +.55
01[10:27] {&Threei}  wtg
01[10:28] {&Threei}  .25 break should catapult it
[10:29] {dino} out htwr .21, +.50
01[10:30] {&Threei}  no go
[10:30] {dino} out ihs 108.94 +1.64
01[10:31] {&Threei} Long Setup:  BBY  .45 break
[10:31] {dino} ahh, c'mon...
01[10:31] {&Threei}  [10:27] {&Threei} wtg
[10:32] {dino} they were 3 nice hits, .55, .50, 1.64
01[10:32] {&Threei}  they were
01[10:32] {&Threei}  but we are still sympathetic to that pain you experienced during first trades...
01[10:32] {&Threei}  you started two posts with "oww..."
[10:33] {dino} lol, i couldn't figure that out...
01[10:33] {&Threei}  {GGG}
01[10:34] {&Threei}  I really want to see a stock with symbol OUCH
01[10:34] {&Threei}  that would be a riot
01[10:34] {&Threei}  there was one named DURA... made all russian-speaking laugh
01[10:35] {&Threei}  BBY stop is .39 btw
[10:35] {dino} gass drop
[10:35] {dino} thats a funny one
01[10:35] {&Threei}  hehe
[10:35] {dino} lol, its called stealth gas
01[10:36] {&Threei}  oh boy
[10:36] {dino} silent but deadly i guess
[10:36] {RonS} omg the co name is funnier...stealth gas...
01[10:36] {&Threei}  it's getting better by minute
[10:36] {dino} builders getting nailed
[10:38] {+cc_9} SPY stuck @ range, needs to break that 168.75
01[10:38] {&Threei}  it should
01[10:41] {&Threei}  there you go
01[10:46] {&Threei}  goingshort, look pm pls
[10:46] {+cc_9} IWM major lag behind
[10:46] {+cc_9} stuck @ 104.2/3, needs 104.10
01[10:46] {&Threei}  SPY doesn't show much determination
01[10:47] {&Threei}  moves up haltingly
[10:51] {+cc_9} still think it gets back to yesterday's close
[10:51] {+cc_9} 169.10
[10:55] {+cc_9} any news?
[10:55] {+cc_9} lots of volume/chatter, other than the fed rates, not finding much
01[10:56] {&Threei}  nothing concrete
01[10:56] {&Threei}  more and mopre about taper happening, and soon
01[10:56] {&Threei}  volume is 13% under 3-months average
[10:57] {+cc_9} VXX has not moved much on this SPY drop either
[10:58] {RonS} curious as to why you pay any attention to the vxx?
[10:59] {+cc_9} To gauge volatility
[11:00] {RonS} then why not the vix since it is current
[11:00] {+cc_9} if VXX spiked up on this latest market drop, then people were hedging/betting against the market.
[11:01] {RonS} since the vxx is an average of all futures contracts how can it be a gauge of anything? is it not more important what is happening to specific contracts?
[11:01] {+cc_9} Over the long run there is a clear discrepancy, for intraday, the liquidity/prints on it are slightly clearer than VIX$
[11:02] {+cc_9} IWM back to 10:40s highs, SPY lagging now
[11:02] {RonS} just saying that a derivative of a derivative is really sketchy...imo
[11:05] {RonS} imo if you want a relatively real time reading on the vix futures for all months you should start wacthing the "Sonar Report" daily presentation from the floor of the CBOE via the Optionmonster website
[11:05] {dino} dal drop again
01[11:06] {&Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .80 breal
[11:06] {RonS} they identify majot vix futures trades and trends and what the trader is likely trying to accomplish...
01[11:06] {&Threei}  If holds  .70
[11:06] {Alexs} hl CAT?
01[11:08] {&Threei}  narrowqed down enough for full lot IMO
[11:08] {dino} dal hl l .20
01[11:08] {&Threei}  say, 3/4?
[11:09] {Alexs} k
[11:09] {+cc_9} Ron, that is correct and I agree. From a liquidity point of view, it is still an indicator, maybe not as accurate as the underlying $VIX
01[11:13] {&Threei}  ok kitty, let's do it this time, don't be a scalp
01[11:13] {&Threei}  be a good cat and move like real feline
01[11:13] {&Threei}  1:1
[11:13] {+cc_9} SPY/IWM both at intraday tops, wall needs to break
01[11:13] {&Threei}  tbell, look dcc pls
01[11:15] {&Threei}  oh come on
01[11:15] {&Threei}  second time, just a scalp
[11:17] {+cc_9} SPY }} http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/4067/ob7w.jpg
[11:17] {dino} out dal .44, +.24
[11:17] {nemo} jpm looks short
[11:18] {+cc_9} Looking for an intraday top break and a tgt of yesterday's close (full reversal)
[11:21] {+cc_9} There goes SPY
[11:21] {+cc_9} $0.20 to go.
[11:21] {+cc_9} IWm now lagging, still not through 104.10
[11:25] {+cc_9} great reversal
[11:26] {+cc_9} UAL tanking
[11:27] {dino} wathing them
[11:27] {dino} watching
01[11:27] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .50 break
[11:28] {dino} taking a break
01[11:28] {&Threei}  If holds  .44
[11:29] {+cc_9} SPY $0.10 from target
[11:29] {+cc_9} monster turn around
01[11:30] {&Threei}  meh
[11:30] {nemo} indexes bottom between 10:30 and 11:00 every day
[11:32] {+cc_9} SPY full blown reversal to its closing price yesterday of 169.10 (call made earlier)
[11:32] {+cc_9} Trader out.
[11:32] {nemo} gdx ready to go here
01[11:32] {&Threei}  friking CAT
01[11:33] {&Threei}  turned twice into merely a scalp, then moved higher
[11:36] {+cc_9} UAL slight double bottom dino
[11:36] {RonS} the bots are all over the airlines...pure pulp
[11:38] {dino} missed it, microwaving soup
[11:38] {RonS} gonna go on all day...
[11:38] {dino} luv held well in relation to dal, ual
[11:38] {RonS} feds squashing the aa us air merger...
[11:39] {dino} which will keep capacity
01[11:39] {&Threei}  come on dino, freeze that soup and gnaw at frozen cubes all day, not to leave the computer
[11:39] {RonS} lol
01[11:40] {&Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .70 break
01[11:40] {&Threei}  If holds  .60
[11:41] {dino} i've found i make (and keep) more cash when I trade less
[11:41] {dino} used to average 15+ trades/day, trying to keep it under 9
01[11:42] {&Threei}  best line from the article about weight loss I've ever seen: You aren’t going to get the butt you want by sitting on the one you have
[11:43] {+cc_9} initial target on market reversal was 169.10 on SPY, it hit 169.09 on the nose before fading again
[11:43] {+cc_9} UAL fighting hard to put a bottom
[11:43] {dino} reminds me of the wife who asked hubby for boob job, he said rub tp on them, it worked for your ass
01[11:43] {&Threei}  lol
01[11:44] {&Threei}  I am not convinced on UAL...
01[11:44] {&Threei}  low volume bounce
01[11:44] {&Threei}  can easily break down again
[11:44] {dino} slightly higher low, but missing the higher hi
[11:45] {+cc_9} agreed, needs about 31.15 for convincing turn around (UAL)
[11:46] {dino} the progresso and chuncky soups are under-rated. they make a great lunch
[11:47] {+cc_9} UAL some volume
[11:47] {nemo} I like Progresso
[11:47] {nemo} btw fas looks short here
[11:47] {+cc_9} 350k+ on last 1min
01[11:49] {&Threei}  starts looking better, UAL
[11:51] {+cc_9} chatter/activity, no price action (UAL)
01[11:54] {&Threei}  no go
[11:54] {dino} triangle forming
[11:54] {+cc_9} another volume spike UAL on 1min
[11:55] {+cc_9} 380k+
[11:56] {+cc_9} UAL through 31.15
[11:56] {nemo} well, that short now looking iffy
[11:56] {dino} anybody get it?
[11:57] {nemo} iwm and spy reclaimed their daily pivots, so perhaps FAS has to also
[11:58] {+cc_9} UAL reversing at last
01[12:04] {&Threei}  watching MCD for dive and reversal
01[12:04] {&Threei}  want long entry
[12:06] {+cc_9} you mean you want MCD for a flip
[12:06] {+cc_9} heh...my best joke for the day, shameful
01[12:07] {&Threei}  congratulations cc9... you did impossible
[12:07] {nemo} funny as a rubber crutch
01[12:07] {&Threei}  made a joke worse than mine
01[12:07] {&Threei}  that's qiote an accomplishment
[12:07] {nemo} o fer crissakes Vad, Les' were the worst
01[12:07] {&Threei}  quite
[12:07] {+cc_9} pls add another + near my name
[12:07] {nemo} Oh Vad, about my nick...
01[12:08] {&Threei}  din't know nemo... problem is, les didn't view thwm as jokes {G}
[12:08] {+cc_9} UAL back to $31 if anyone looking for a reload
01[12:09] {&Threei}  leave that nick alone... database rebuilding keeps everyone busy enough to deal woth your caprices
[12:09] {nemo} wow, nice word
[12:10] {nemo} becoming quite sesquepadalian there Vad
06[12:10] * &Threei takes a bow
[12:11] {RonS} did that give him webbed feet?
[12:12] {dino} ual sm l .01
01[12:12] {&Threei}  being sesquepadalian?
[12:12] {nemo} standard Ukranian feature
[12:15] {+cc_9} UAL decent second bounce off $31
[12:18] {+cc_9} aaaaaaaaaaaand SPY green :)
01[12:19] {&Threei}  crap... .40 was it for MCD
[12:22] {dino} out ual .26, +.25
[12:22] {RonS} gj
[12:25] {dino} ty
01[12:26] {&Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .50 break
01[12:26] {&Threei}  If holds  .40
[12:31] {+cc_9} funny how when market was melting, stocktwits was full of "told you it would crash!"
[12:31] {+cc_9} now they are magically long
[12:31] {+cc_9} lol cant get enough of that
01[12:31] {&Threei}  1:1
01[12:32] {&Threei}  I enjoy this "we all are winners" chorus for years
01[12:32] {&Threei}  a lot of people guess, then losers remain silent and winners scream on top of their lungs
01[12:32] {&Threei}  market reverses, thwe other side yells, while first one suts up
[12:33] {+cc_9} lol
01[12:33] {&Threei}  so it's like they win all the time
01[12:33] {&Threei}  on one forum there is a guy who makes the same call every year, around the same time:
01[12:34] {&Threei}  earnign season starts, it all tha matters for the nmarket, and it's not going to be pretty, I am short
01[12:34] {&Threei}  every year market goes up, he is nowhere to be seen, then he pops up a year later with the same call
01[12:34] {&Threei}  5 years in a row
[12:36] {+cc_9} when was making bullish calls on the market earlier @ the drop, everyone and their second cousin was screaming "this is the top, we go down from here"
01[12:37] {&Threei}  then there are those "bull market geniuses"
[12:37] {+cc_9} now that market is back where we left off yesterday "was a good time to buy SPY calls on that drop!"
01[12:37] {&Threei}  that make a name by repeating bullish calls during bull market, and continue doing that after market reverses...
01[12:37] {&Threei}  anyone remember the name Chhetah?
01[12:37] {&Threei}  1998 - 2000 hero
[12:37] {+cc_9} theoptiondon Aug. 13 at 10:10 AM $SPY 168 puts @ .61
[12:38] {+cc_9} theoptiondon Aug. 13 at 12:31 PM this market is totally irrational. cant get proper footing in either direction $SPY
[12:38] {+cc_9} this is just an example
01[12:38] {&Threei}  repeated gis "buy any pillback" all the way down after market reversed its tech boom
01[12:39] {&Threei}  one trick ponies...
[12:40] {dino} cheetah girls, yes
[12:40] {+cc_9} UAL back under $31
[12:40] {+cc_9} flag /  pennant forming on 2min
[12:43] {+cc_9} closing in on that 30.70s intraday support
01[12:44] {&Threei}  (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC non-voter): Any change in QE should be a cautious first step
[12:47] {+cc_9} i.e no change
01[12:48] {&Threei}  - There will not likely be enough data on hand by September to be able to map a full phase-out of QE purchases. - Recent data does not paint a clear picture of the economy. Uneven economic data keeps the Fed from offering specific guidance. - US economy should pick up in the second half of 2013, with stronger consumer spending and housing
01[12:48] {&Threei}  (US) PIMCO's El-Erian: Risk markets are treading water and getting tired; major uncertainties ahead include debt ceiling, taper, new Fed chairman, European elections
[12:49] {+cc_9} UAL .70s support so far working
01[12:49] {&Threei}  speaking of next fed chairman, summers' name sounds more and more often
[12:50] {RonS} "getting tired" makes me crazy...pure pablum
01[12:50] {&Threei}  A soft breakfast cereal for infants?
[12:50] {+cc_9} UAL like clockwork
[12:51] {+cc_9} UAL Chart }}} http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/5688/yomk.jpg
[12:51] {+cc_9} 12:44 cc_9 closing in on that 30.70s intraday support
[12:52] {+cc_9} FWIW, the market bounced 130 points from lows
[12:57] {Alexs} BBRY .94 long?
01[12:58] {&Threei}  I'd prefer to catch reversal on a deeper pullback
01[12:58] {&Threei}  like this
01[12:58] {&Threei}  dive under .80, getting intereasted in recross entry
[12:58] {Alexs} k
[12:59] {nemo} did you mean "pabulum"  or "pablum"?
[13:01] {RonS} Trite, insipid, or simplistic writing, speech, or conceptualization...pablum
[13:01] {Alexs} LCC .45?
[13:01] {nemo} look up pabulum
01[13:02] {&Threei}  LCC looks nice... late
[13:02] {dino} you guys are determined to educate me
[13:02] {RonS} already did...
[13:02] {nemo} wish you were Les, had a great insult
[13:02] {nemo} yeah, same words
[13:02] {nemo} same meaning
[13:02] {nemo} same root
01[13:03] {&Threei}  I still like mine interpretation better
01[13:03] {&Threei}  soft breakfast cereal for infants
[13:05] {RonS} apropos vis fedding the unwashed public...
[13:05] {RonS} feeding
01[13:05] {&Threei}  yup
01[13:05] {&Threei}  fits the bill perfectly
01[13:06] {&Threei}  data shows retai investor is back, with vengeance
01[13:06] {&Threei}  multiple increases in money flow
[13:07] {RonS} dal acting breakdownish...3i's technical term...
01[13:07] {&Threei}  how do you think it's going to end? :)
01[13:08] {&Threei}  5 years long bull market, getting parabolic and retail investor contributions jump multifold
01[13:08] {&Threei}  same story, every friggin time
01[13:10] {&Threei}  alex, LCC gets interesting
01[13:10] {&Threei}  get ready with hl
[13:10] {Alexs} despite "Learning is not compulsory.." what's the best book on technical analysis Vad?
01[13:10] {&Threei} Long Setup:  LCC  .10 break
01[13:10] {&Threei}  If holds  17
01[13:13] {&Threei}  if you want pure TA book, classic Edwards & Magee Technical Analysis of Stock Trends is the best, just try to find early edition without third author
[13:13] {Alexs} thanks
01[13:14] {&Threei}  not sure you need such a fundamenatl work though
01[13:14] {&Threei}  I mean no one trades all the setups
01[13:15] {&Threei}  or uses all the indicators
[13:15] {+cc_9} UAL off the .70s is just clockwork...
01[13:15] {&Threei}  ok LCC, it's time
01[13:19] {&Threei}  meh
01[13:19] {&Threei}  good morning, then one on one off
[13:19] {dino} keep it simple alexs
01[13:20] {&Threei}  yeah
01[13:20] {&Threei}  get too deep into this stuff, you soon find yourself either paralyzed by endless analysis or in constant contradiction with yourself
[13:20] {Alexs} lol
01[13:21] {&Threei}  seriously... see it all the time
01[13:22] {&Threei}  stochastic says buy but OBV say sell,
01[13:22] {&Threei}  while MACD crossover is not there, but MA turn up
[13:22] {RonS} ...and nemo says kma...
01[13:22] {&Threei}  Hindenburg omen
01[13:22] {&Threei}  cross of death
01[13:23] {&Threei}  dome with 5 peaks
01[13:23] {&Threei}  ichomoku cloud
[13:23] {dino} two scoops ice cream
01[13:23] {&Threei}  fan lines
[13:23] {Alexs} lol
01[13:23] {&Threei}  the list is endless
01[13:24] {&Threei}  there are thousands on indicators, and new ones are being invented daily
01[13:24] {&Threei}  who cares, basics remain uncanged and work for decades if not \centuries
[13:28] {nemo} what I say?
01[13:28] {&Threei}  ?
[13:28] {+cc_9} UAL updated chart from earlier (.70s still working) : http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/6637/r83q.jpg
[13:43] {dino} things have slowed dwn
[13:45] {dino} calling it a day, very good one. thx all for ideas
[13:46] {+cc_9} take it easy dino
[13:46] {dino} u2 buddy
01[13:47] {&Threei}  take care dino
[13:50] {+cc_9} UAL one of the best patterns so far today, holding a perfect intraday support each time for a solid trade.
[13:53] {+cc_9} @ highest pps since 11:00AM ET
[13:54] {RonS} pps?
[13:54] {+cc_9} price per share
[13:55] {+cc_9} aka price.
[13:56] {RonS} furious volume in LLC over 30% of float already traded...
[13:56] {+cc_9} UAL updated chart }}} http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/3365/0ck5.jpg
[13:56] {+cc_9} you mean LCC ?
[13:57] {RonS} ya
[14:00] {+cc_9} JBLU ahead of the bunch
[14:02] {+cc_9} Done for today, 3 main trades : DUST on GDX drop @ open. TNA on IWM reversal (traded once), UAL off 30.70s support (traded twice)
01[14:13] {&Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .90 break
01[14:14] {&Threei}  If holds  .85
01[14:18] {&Threei}  database restoration seems to be over, room is closed now to unregistered nick
01[14:18] {&Threei}  if next time you connect and can't, it means nemo sneaked in and crossed your name off the list
[14:18] {~KSystems} :)
[14:22] {RonS} aapl rip
[14:23] {Alexs} MU .80 break?
[14:23] {RonS} icahn in aapl
[14:24] {+cc_9} Looks good for a short
[14:24] {+cc_9} down to 481
[14:27] {+cc_9} { 481, good hype trade
[14:28] {+cc_9} https://twitter.com/Carl_C_Icahn
[14:28] {+cc_9} "Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity."
01[14:29] {&Threei}  yeah, loved it
[14:30] {nemo} phewww, was I worried:  http://bit.ly/15Akoqk
01[14:33] {&Threei}  in TZA
[14:39] {+cc_9} with 1 tweet from Ichan, AAPL gains near $10B in market cap..
[14:39] {nemo} any interesting options movement recently in aapl
[14:45] {+cc_9} LCC tanked to session lows
01[14:47] {&Threei}  half out
01[14:49] {&Threei}  stop to .89
01[14:50] {&Threei}  be back in 10
[15:01] {+cc_9} LCC trying here
[15:08] {+cc_9} FB dumping
01[15:19] {&Threei}  ONXX Pfizer now said to have exited the bidding process for the company, following Novartis earlier - financial press
01[15:21] {&Threei}  here is how desperation looks:
01[15:21] {&Threei}  BlackBerry Discloses introduces new super social BlackBerry 9720 smartphone (update)- Designed for a premium look and available in a variety of vibrant colors, the new BlackBerry 9720 smartphone takes everything youd get from a starter smartphone to the next level, and comes packed with of all of your favorite social apps to let you spark the conversation.
01[15:22] {&Threei}  long list of great new features, then ends with this:
01[15:22] {&Threei}  Beginning in the coming weeks, the new BlackBerry 9720 smartphone will be available in select markets from retailers and carriers in Asia, EMEA and Latin America
01[15:24] {&Threei}  BBRY is almost ready for bounce
01[15:24] {&Threei}  watching
[15:25] {Alexs} LCC short .50?
01[15:26] {&Threei}  yup
01[15:28] {&Threei} Long Setup:  BBRY  .30 break
01[15:28] {&Threei}  If holds  .25
01[15:30] {&Threei}  change to .25 break
01[15:30] {&Threei}  If holds  .20
01[15:32] {&Threei}  change to .20 break
01[15:32] {&Threei}  If holds  .15
[15:35] {+cc_9} Adding UAL/FB to watch list for tomorrow
01[15:37] {&Threei}  ok BBRY... before you sail into sunset, we still need to get some money off you. So breaks that .25 and run
01[15:40] {&Threei}  sone of a motherless goat
[15:43] {nemo} interesting, IWM and SPY basically at weekly pivots
01[15:43] {&Threei}  LCC finally broke down
01[15:44] {&Threei}  not sure there is time and room for it to work
[15:44] {Alexs} missed it
01[15:44] {&Threei}  but good spot nonetheless
01[15:44] {&Threei}  that's OK, I am not sure it's worth it at this point in time
[15:46] {nemo} serious volume spike in finnies and spy
[15:46] {+cc_9} better to wait for tomorrow to get some nice trades on the airlines
01[15:48] {&Threei}  wow
01[15:48] {&Threei}  BBRY
[15:48] {nemo} http://bo.st/1eHAXGu
01[15:48] {&Threei}  thank god for small stops
01[15:48] {&Threei}  as name implies, they stop your losses
[15:52] {+cc_9} Some buyers stepping in FB EOD
[15:52] {Alexs} LCC worked nicely
01[15:52] {&Threei}  yes
01[15:54] {&Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:54] {&Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:54] {+cc_9} cya

Session Time: Tue Aug 13 00:00:00 2013

[08:48] {dino} gm
01[08:49] {&Threei}  morning dino
[08:50] {nemo} I suppose I'm chopped liver
01[08:57] {&Threei}  hmm?
[09:20] {nemo} anybody ever watch the old cable tv show "Deadwood"?
[09:20] {dino} yes
[09:21] {nemo} Yeah, I started watching it...really excellent
[09:22] {dino} good show
01[09:25] {&Threei}  ASTM halt
[09:25] {cipher} gm
01[09:26] {&Threei}  cipher :)
[09:26] {RonS} hello
01[09:26] {&Threei}  ron :)
[09:28] {bbobr} gm
01[09:29] {&Threei}  bbobr :)
[09:29] {Alexs} gm
01[09:29] {&Threei}  alex :)
01[09:29] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .75 break
01[09:29] {&Threei}  If holds  .85 
[09:31] {RonS} sm L val 66.10
01[09:32] {&Threei}  stop to .81
01[09:33] {&Threei}  ha;f out
01[09:33] {&Threei}  stop to .76
01[09:34] {&Threei}  1:2
01[09:34] {&Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:34] {dino} oww hl l .43
01[09:35] {&Threei}  that painful?
01[09:35] {&Threei}  1"3
01[09:35] {&Threei}  out in full
[09:39] {+cc_9} at last GDX
[09:39] {dino} oww stop .33 -.10
01[09:40] {&Threei} Long Setup:  C  .15 breal
01[09:40] {&Threei}  If holds  .05 
01[09:42] {&Threei}  change to .10 break
01[09:43] {&Threei}  If holds  51 
01[09:44] {&Threei}  1:1
01[09:44] {&Threei}  stop to .04
01[09:46] {&Threei}  to .09 now
[09:46] {+cc_9} IWM reversal
[09:47] {+cc_9} IWM weaker than SPY today fwiw
[09:50] {dino} ihs
[09:55] {dino} cst hl s .37
01[09:56] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .70 break
01[09:57] {&Threei}  half out
01[09:57] {&Threei}  stop .76
01[10:00] {&Threei}  *(US) JUN BUSINESS INVENTORIES: 0.0% V 0.2%E
[10:00] {dino} ihs sm l .30
01[10:03] {&Threei}  (US) Analyst note yesterday broke the embargo on Jackson Hole agenda (Aug 22-24) - financial press- Tier-1 firm analyst comments that the agenda does not feature speeches from any major fed officials, which will likely mean markets will pay less attention to the symposium than it has in the past.
[10:04] {dino} good
01[10:04] {&Threei}  lol
[10:05] {+cc_9} market falling off a cliff
[10:06] {dino} cov cst .97, +.40
01[10:07] {&Threei} Long Setup:  C  .95 break
01[10:07] {&Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[10:10] {&Threei}  meh
[10:11] {+cc_9} SPY 168.75 = reversal in indexes
[10:11] {Alexs} GDX stop .71 now?
[10:11] {+cc_9} Lets see if catchs a bid
[10:12] {+cc_9} & 104.10 on IWM
[10:19] {dino} htwr sm l av .71, thinny
01[10:20] {&Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .60 break hl
01[10:20] {&Threei}  If holds  .50 
01[10:21] {&Threei}  any SPY help, easy 1:3er, maybe more
[10:23] {dino} dal drop
01[10:23] {&Threei}  1:1
[10:24] {dino} dal l .25 trig
01[10:24] {&Threei}  that's all?
01[10:24] {&Threei}  oh well
01[10:25] {&Threei}  dino, had your morning pain passed?
01[10:26] {&Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .20 break hl
01[10:26] {&Threei}  If holds  .10 
[10:26] {dino} out dal .80, +.55
01[10:27] {&Threei}  wtg
01[10:28] {&Threei}  .25 break should catapult it
[10:29] {dino} out htwr .21, +.50
01[10:30] {&Threei}  no go
[10:30] {dino} out ihs 108.94 +1.64
01[10:31] {&Threei} Long Setup:  BBY  .45 break
[10:31] {dino} ahh, c'mon...
01[10:31] {&Threei}  [10:27] {&Threei} wtg
[10:32] {dino} they were 3 nice hits, .55, .50, 1.64
01[10:32] {&Threei}  they were
01[10:32] {&Threei}  but we are still sympathetic to that pain you experienced during first trades...
01[10:32] {&Threei}  you started two posts with "oww..."
[10:33] {dino} lol, i couldn't figure that out...
01[10:33] {&Threei}  {GGG}
01[10:34] {&Threei}  I really want to see a stock with symbol OUCH
01[10:34] {&Threei}  that would be a riot
01[10:34] {&Threei}  there was one named DURA... made all russian-speaking laugh
01[10:35] {&Threei}  BBY stop is .39 btw
[10:35] {dino} gass drop
[10:35] {dino} thats a funny one
01[10:35] {&Threei}  hehe
[10:35] {dino} lol, its called stealth gas
01[10:36] {&Threei}  oh boy
[10:36] {dino} silent but deadly i guess
[10:36] {RonS} omg the co name is funnier...stealth gas...
01[10:36] {&Threei}  it's getting better by minute
[10:36] {dino} builders getting nailed
[10:38] {+cc_9} SPY stuck @ range, needs to break that 168.75
01[10:38] {&Threei}  it should
01[10:41] {&Threei}  there you go
01[10:46] {&Threei}  goingshort, look pm pls
[10:46] {+cc_9} IWM major lag behind
[10:46] {+cc_9} stuck @ 104.2/3, needs 104.10
01[10:46] {&Threei}  SPY doesn't show much determination
01[10:47] {&Threei}  moves up haltingly
[10:51] {+cc_9} still think it gets back to yesterday's close
[10:51] {+cc_9} 169.10
[10:55] {+cc_9} any news?
[10:55] {+cc_9} lots of volume/chatter, other than the fed rates, not finding much
01[10:56] {&Threei}  nothing concrete
01[10:56] {&Threei}  more and mopre about taper happening, and soon
01[10:56] {&Threei}  volume is 13% under 3-months average
[10:57] {+cc_9} VXX has not moved much on this SPY drop either
[10:58] {RonS} curious as to why you pay any attention to the vxx?
[10:59] {+cc_9} To gauge volatility
[11:00] {RonS} then why not the vix since it is current
[11:00] {+cc_9} if VXX spiked up on this latest market drop, then people were hedging/betting against the market.
[11:01] {RonS} since the vxx is an average of all futures contracts how can it be a gauge of anything? is it not more important what is happening to specific contracts?
[11:01] {+cc_9} Over the long run there is a clear discrepancy, for intraday, the liquidity/prints on it are slightly clearer than VIX$
[11:02] {+cc_9} IWM back to 10:40s highs, SPY lagging now
[11:02] {RonS} just saying that a derivative of a derivative is really sketchy...imo
[11:05] {RonS} imo if you want a relatively real time reading on the vix futures for all months you should start wacthing the "Sonar Report" daily presentation from the floor of the CBOE via the Optionmonster website
[11:05] {dino} dal drop again
01[11:06] {&Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .80 breal
[11:06] {RonS} they identify majot vix futures trades and trends and what the trader is likely trying to accomplish...
01[11:06] {&Threei}  If holds  .70 
[11:06] {Alexs} hl CAT?
01[11:08] {&Threei}  narrowqed down enough for full lot IMO
[11:08] {dino} dal hl l .20
01[11:08] {&Threei}  say, 3/4?
[11:09] {Alexs} k
[11:09] {+cc_9} Ron, that is correct and I agree. From a liquidity point of view, it is still an indicator, maybe not as accurate as the underlying $VIX
01[11:13] {&Threei}  ok kitty, let's do it this time, don't be a scalp
01[11:13] {&Threei}  be a good cat and move like real feline
01[11:13] {&Threei}  1:1
[11:13] {+cc_9} SPY/IWM both at intraday tops, wall needs to break 
01[11:13] {&Threei}  tbell, look dcc pls
01[11:15] {&Threei}  oh come on
01[11:15] {&Threei}  second time, just a scalp
[11:17] {+cc_9} SPY }} http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/4067/ob7w.jpg
[11:17] {dino} out dal .44, +.24
[11:17] {nemo} jpm looks short
[11:18] {+cc_9} Looking for an intraday top break and a tgt of yesterday's close (full reversal)
[11:21] {+cc_9} There goes SPY
[11:21] {+cc_9} $0.20 to go.
[11:21] {+cc_9} IWm now lagging, still not through 104.10
[11:25] {+cc_9} great reversal
[11:26] {+cc_9} UAL tanking
[11:27] {dino} wathing them
[11:27] {dino} watching
01[11:27] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .50 break
[11:28] {dino} taking a break
01[11:28] {&Threei}  If holds  .44 
[11:29] {+cc_9} SPY $0.10 from target
[11:29] {+cc_9} monster turn around 
01[11:30] {&Threei}  meh
[11:30] {nemo} indexes bottom between 10:30 and 11:00 every day
[11:32] {+cc_9} SPY full blown reversal to its closing price yesterday of 169.10 (call made earlier)
[11:32] {+cc_9} Trader out.
[11:32] {nemo} gdx ready to go here
01[11:32] {&Threei}  friking CAT
01[11:33] {&Threei}  turned twice into merely a scalp, then moved higher
[11:36] {+cc_9} UAL slight double bottom dino
[11:36] {RonS} the bots are all over the airlines...pure pulp
[11:38] {dino} missed it, microwaving soup
[11:38] {RonS} gonna go on all day...
[11:38] {dino} luv held well in relation to dal, ual
[11:38] {RonS} feds squashing the aa us air merger...
[11:39] {dino} which will keep capacity
01[11:39] {&Threei}  come on dino, freeze that soup and gnaw at frozen cubes all day, not to leave the computer
[11:39] {RonS} lol
01[11:40] {&Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .70 break
01[11:40] {&Threei}  If holds  .60 
[11:41] {dino} i've found i make (and keep) more cash when I trade less
[11:41] {dino} used to average 15+ trades/day, trying to keep it under 9
01[11:42] {&Threei}  best line from the article about weight loss I've ever seen: You aren’t going to get the butt you want by sitting on the one you have
[11:43] {+cc_9} initial target on market reversal was 169.10 on SPY, it hit 169.09 on the nose before fading again
[11:43] {+cc_9} UAL fighting hard to put a bottom
[11:43] {dino} reminds me of the wife who asked hubby for boob job, he said rub tp on them, it worked for your ass
01[11:43] {&Threei}  lol
01[11:44] {&Threei}  I am not convinced on UAL...
01[11:44] {&Threei}  low volume bounce
01[11:44] {&Threei}  can easily break down again
[11:44] {dino} slightly higher low, but missing the higher hi
[11:45] {+cc_9} agreed, needs about 31.15 for convincing turn around (UAL)
[11:46] {dino} the progresso and chuncky soups are under-rated. they make a great lunch
[11:47] {+cc_9} UAL some volume
[11:47] {nemo} I like Progresso
[11:47] {nemo} btw fas looks short here
[11:47] {+cc_9} 350k+ on last 1min
01[11:49] {&Threei}  starts looking better, UAL
[11:51] {+cc_9} chatter/activity, no price action (UAL)
01[11:54] {&Threei}  no go
[11:54] {dino} triangle forming
[11:54] {+cc_9} another volume spike UAL on 1min
[11:55] {+cc_9} 380k+
[11:56] {+cc_9} UAL through 31.15
[11:56] {nemo} well, that short now looking iffy
[11:56] {dino} anybody get it?
[11:57] {nemo} iwm and spy reclaimed their daily pivots, so perhaps FAS has to also
[11:58] {+cc_9} UAL reversing at last
01[12:04] {&Threei}  watching MCD for dive and reversal
01[12:04] {&Threei}  want long entry
[12:06] {+cc_9} you mean you want MCD for a flip
[12:06] {+cc_9} heh...my best joke for the day, shameful
01[12:07] {&Threei}  congratulations cc9... you did impossible
[12:07] {nemo} funny as a rubber crutch
01[12:07] {&Threei}  made a joke worse than mine
01[12:07] {&Threei}  that's qiote an accomplishment
[12:07] {nemo} o fer crissakes Vad, Les' were the worst
01[12:07] {&Threei}  quite
[12:07] {+cc_9} pls add another + near my name
[12:07] {nemo} Oh Vad, about my nick...
01[12:08] {&Threei}  din't know nemo... problem is, les didn't view thwm as jokes {G}
[12:08] {+cc_9} UAL back to $31 if anyone looking for a reload
01[12:09] {&Threei}  leave that nick alone... database rebuilding keeps everyone busy enough to deal woth your caprices
[12:09] {nemo} wow, nice word
[12:10] {nemo} becoming quite sesquepadalian there Vad
06[12:10] * &Threei takes a bow
[12:11] {RonS} did that give him webbed feet?
[12:12] {dino} ual sm l .01
01[12:12] {&Threei}  being sesquepadalian?
[12:12] {nemo} standard Ukranian feature
[12:15] {+cc_9} UAL decent second bounce off $31
[12:18] {+cc_9} aaaaaaaaaaaand SPY green :)
01[12:19] {&Threei}  crap... .40 was it for MCD
[12:22] {dino} out ual .26, +.25
[12:22] {RonS} gj
[12:25] {dino} ty
01[12:26] {&Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .50 break
01[12:26] {&Threei}  If holds  .40 
[12:31] {+cc_9} funny how when market was melting, stocktwits was full of "told you it would crash!"
[12:31] {+cc_9} now they are magically long
[12:31] {+cc_9} lol cant get enough of that
01[12:31] {&Threei}  1:1
01[12:32] {&Threei}  I enjoy this "we all are winners" chorus for years
01[12:32] {&Threei}  a lot of people guess, then losers remain silent and winners scream on top of their lungs
01[12:32] {&Threei}  market reverses, thwe other side yells, while first one suts up
[12:33] {+cc_9} lol
01[12:33] {&Threei}  so it's like they win all the time
01[12:33] {&Threei}  on one forum there is a guy who makes the same call every year, around the same time:
01[12:34] {&Threei}  earnign season starts, it all tha matters for the nmarket, and it's not going to be pretty, I am short
01[12:34] {&Threei}  every year market goes up, he is nowhere to be seen, then he pops up a year later with the same call
01[12:34] {&Threei}  5 years in a row
[12:36] {+cc_9} when was making bullish calls on the market earlier @ the drop, everyone and their second cousin was screaming "this is the top, we go down from here"
01[12:37] {&Threei}  then there are those "bull market geniuses"
[12:37] {+cc_9} now that market is back where we left off yesterday "was a good time to buy SPY calls on that drop!"
01[12:37] {&Threei}  that make a name by repeating bullish calls during bull market, and continue doing that after market reverses...
01[12:37] {&Threei}  anyone remember the name Chhetah?
01[12:37] {&Threei}  1998 - 2000 hero
[12:37] {+cc_9} theoptiondon Aug. 13 at 10:10 AM $SPY 168 puts @ .61 
[12:38] {+cc_9} theoptiondon Aug. 13 at 12:31 PM this market is totally irrational. cant get proper footing in either direction $SPY
[12:38] {+cc_9} this is just an example
01[12:38] {&Threei}  repeated gis "buy any pillback" all the way down after market reversed its tech boom
01[12:39] {&Threei}  one trick ponies...
[12:40] {dino} cheetah girls, yes
[12:40] {+cc_9} UAL back under $31
[12:40] {+cc_9} flag /  pennant forming on 2min 
[12:43] {+cc_9} closing in on that 30.70s intraday support
01[12:44] {&Threei}  (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC non-voter): Any change in QE should be a cautious first step
[12:47] {+cc_9} i.e no change
01[12:48] {&Threei}  - There will not likely be enough data on hand by September to be able to map a full phase-out of QE purchases. - Recent data does not paint a clear picture of the economy. Uneven economic data keeps the Fed from offering specific guidance. - US economy should pick up in the second half of 2013, with stronger consumer spending and housing
01[12:48] {&Threei}  (US) PIMCO's El-Erian: Risk markets are treading water and getting tired; major uncertainties ahead include debt ceiling, taper, new Fed chairman, European elections
[12:49] {+cc_9} UAL .70s support so far working 
01[12:49] {&Threei}  speaking of next fed chairman, summers' name sounds more and more often
[12:50] {RonS} "getting tired" makes me crazy...pure pablum
01[12:50] {&Threei}  A soft breakfast cereal for infants?
[12:50] {+cc_9} UAL like clockwork
[12:51] {+cc_9} UAL Chart }}} http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/5688/yomk.jpg
[12:51] {+cc_9} 12:44 cc_9 closing in on that 30.70s intraday support
[12:52] {+cc_9} FWIW, the market bounced 130 points from lows
[12:57] {Alexs} BBRY .94 long?
01[12:58] {&Threei}  I'd prefer to catch reversal on a deeper pullback
01[12:58] {&Threei}  like this
01[12:58] {&Threei}  dive under .80, getting intereasted in recross entry
[12:58] {Alexs} k
[12:59] {nemo} did you mean "pabulum"  or "pablum"?
[13:01] {RonS} Trite, insipid, or simplistic writing, speech, or conceptualization...pablum
[13:01] {Alexs} LCC .45?
[13:01] {nemo} look up pabulum
01[13:02] {&Threei}  LCC looks nice... late
[13:02] {dino} you guys are determined to educate me
[13:02] {RonS} already did...
[13:02] {nemo} wish you were Les, had a great insult
[13:02] {nemo} yeah, same words
[13:02] {nemo} same meaning
[13:02] {nemo} same root
01[13:03] {&Threei}  I still like mine interpretation better
01[13:03] {&Threei}  soft breakfast cereal for infants
[13:05] {RonS} apropos vis fedding the unwashed public...
[13:05] {RonS} feeding
01[13:05] {&Threei}  yup
01[13:05] {&Threei}  fits the bill perfectly
01[13:06] {&Threei}  data shows retai investor is back, with vengeance
01[13:06] {&Threei}  multiple increases in money flow
[13:07] {RonS} dal acting breakdownish...3i's technical term...
01[13:07] {&Threei}  how do you think it's going to end? :)
01[13:08] {&Threei}  5 years long bull market, getting parabolic and retail investor contributions jump multifold
01[13:08] {&Threei}  same story, every friggin time
01[13:10] {&Threei}  alex, LCC gets interesting
01[13:10] {&Threei}  get ready with hl
[13:10] {Alexs} despite "Learning is not compulsory.." what's the best book on technical analysis Vad?
01[13:10] {&Threei} Long Setup:  LCC  .10 break
01[13:10] {&Threei}  If holds  17 
01[13:13] {&Threei}  if you want pure TA book, classic Edwards & Magee Technical Analysis of Stock Trends is the best, just try to find early edition without third author
[13:13] {Alexs} thanks
01[13:14] {&Threei}  not sure you need such a fundamenatl work though
01[13:14] {&Threei}  I mean no one trades all the setups
01[13:15] {&Threei}  or uses all the indicators
[13:15] {+cc_9} UAL off the .70s is just clockwork...
01[13:15] {&Threei}  ok LCC, it's time
01[13:19] {&Threei}  meh
01[13:19] {&Threei}  good morning, then one on one off
[13:19] {dino} keep it simple alexs
01[13:20] {&Threei}  yeah
01[13:20] {&Threei}  get too deep into this stuff, you soon find yourself either paralyzed by endless analysis or in constant contradiction with yourself
[13:20] {Alexs} lol
01[13:21] {&Threei}  seriously... see it all the time
01[13:22] {&Threei}  stochastic says buy but OBV say sell,
01[13:22] {&Threei}  while MACD crossover is not there, but MA turn up
[13:22] {RonS} ...and nemo says kma...
01[13:22] {&Threei}  Hindenburg omen
01[13:22] {&Threei}  cross of death
01[13:23] {&Threei}  dome with 5 peaks
01[13:23] {&Threei}  ichomoku cloud
[13:23] {dino} two scoops ice cream
01[13:23] {&Threei}  fan lines
[13:23] {Alexs} lol
01[13:23] {&Threei}  the list is endless
01[13:24] {&Threei}  there are thousands on indicators, and new ones are being invented daily
01[13:24] {&Threei}  who cares, basics remain uncanged and work for decades if not \centuries
[13:28] {nemo} what I say?
01[13:28] {&Threei}  ?
[13:28] {+cc_9} UAL updated chart from earlier (.70s still working) : http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/6637/r83q.jpg
[13:43] {dino} things have slowed dwn
[13:45] {dino} calling it a day, very good one. thx all for ideas
[13:46] {+cc_9} take it easy dino
[13:46] {dino} u2 buddy
01[13:47] {&Threei}  take care dino
[13:50] {+cc_9} UAL one of the best patterns so far today, holding a perfect intraday support each time for a solid trade.
[13:53] {+cc_9} @ highest pps since 11:00AM ET
[13:54] {RonS} pps?
[13:54] {+cc_9} price per share
[13:55] {+cc_9} aka price.
[13:56] {RonS} furious volume in LLC over 30% of float already traded...
[13:56] {+cc_9} UAL updated chart }}} http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/3365/0ck5.jpg
[13:56] {+cc_9} you mean LCC ?
[13:57] {RonS} ya
[14:00] {+cc_9} JBLU ahead of the bunch
[14:02] {+cc_9} Done for today, 3 main trades : DUST on GDX drop @ open. TNA on IWM reversal (traded once), UAL off 30.70s support (traded twice)
01[14:13] {&Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .90 break
01[14:14] {&Threei}  If holds  .85 
01[14:18] {&Threei}  database restoration seems to be over, room is closed now to unregistered nick
01[14:18] {&Threei}  if next time you connect and can't, it means nemo sneaked in and crossed your name off the list
[14:18] {~KSystems} :)
[14:22] {RonS} aapl rip
[14:23] {Alexs} MU .80 break?
[14:23] {RonS} icahn in aapl
[14:24] {+cc_9} Looks good for a short
[14:24] {+cc_9} down to 481
[14:27] {+cc_9} { 481, good hype trade
[14:28] {+cc_9} https://twitter.com/Carl_C_Icahn
[14:28] {+cc_9} "Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity."
01[14:29] {&Threei}  yeah, loved it
[14:30] {nemo} phewww, was I worried:  http://bit.ly/15Akoqk
01[14:33] {&Threei}  in TZA
[14:39] {+cc_9} with 1 tweet from Ichan, AAPL gains near $10B in market cap..
[14:39] {nemo} any interesting options movement recently in aapl
[14:45] {+cc_9} LCC tanked to session lows
01[14:47] {&Threei}  half out
01[14:49] {&Threei}  stop to .89
01[14:50] {&Threei}  be back in 10
[15:01] {+cc_9} LCC trying here
[15:08] {+cc_9} FB dumping
01[15:19] {&Threei}  ONXX Pfizer now said to have exited the bidding process for the company, following Novartis earlier - financial press
01[15:21] {&Threei}  here is how desperation looks:
01[15:21] {&Threei}  BlackBerry Discloses introduces new super social BlackBerry 9720 smartphone (update)- Designed for a premium look and available in a variety of vibrant colors, the new BlackBerry 9720 smartphone takes everything youd get from a starter smartphone to the next level, and comes packed with of all of your favorite social apps to let you spark the conversation.
01[15:22] {&Threei}  long list of great new features, then ends with this:
01[15:22] {&Threei}  Beginning in the coming weeks, the new BlackBerry 9720 smartphone will be available in select markets from retailers and carriers in Asia, EMEA and Latin America
01[15:24] {&Threei}  BBRY is almost ready for bounce
01[15:24] {&Threei}  watching
[15:25] {Alexs} LCC short .50?
01[15:26] {&Threei}  yup
01[15:28] {&Threei} Long Setup:  BBRY  .30 break
01[15:28] {&Threei}  If holds  .25 
01[15:30] {&Threei}  change to .25 break
01[15:30] {&Threei}  If holds  .20 
01[15:32] {&Threei}  change to .20 break
01[15:32] {&Threei}  If holds  .15 
[15:35] {+cc_9} Adding UAL/FB to watch list for tomorrow
01[15:37] {&Threei}  ok BBRY... before you sail into sunset, we still need to get some money off you. So breaks that .25 and run
01[15:40] {&Threei}  sone of a motherless goat
[15:43] {nemo} interesting, IWM and SPY basically at weekly pivots
01[15:43] {&Threei}  LCC finally broke down
01[15:44] {&Threei}  not sure there is time and room for it to work
[15:44] {Alexs} missed it
01[15:44] {&Threei}  but good spot nonetheless
01[15:44] {&Threei}  that's OK, I am not sure it's worth it at this point in time
[15:46] {nemo} serious volume spike in finnies and spy
[15:46] {+cc_9} better to wait for tomorrow to get some nice trades on the airlines
01[15:48] {&Threei}  wow
01[15:48] {&Threei}  BBRY
[15:48] {nemo} http://bo.st/1eHAXGu
01[15:48] {&Threei}  thank god for small stops
01[15:48] {&Threei}  as name implies, they stop your losses
[15:52] {+cc_9} Some buyers stepping in FB EOD
[15:52] {Alexs} LCC worked nicely
01[15:52] {&Threei}  yes
01[15:54] {&Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:54] {&Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:54] {+cc_9} cya

Monday, August 12, 2013

Aug 12 2013

Fairly decent day even though second half was lackluster. Also, tech hell is finally over and our main room is fully back up.


Session Start: Mon Aug 12 08:52:29 2013

[09:02] {nemo} I wanna' change my nick
01[09:04] {Threei}  you are obsessed
[09:04] {dino} gm
01[09:04] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:04] {nemo} bored
[09:04] {nemo} I don't want to be me anymore
[09:26] {Alexs} gm
01[09:26] {Threei}  alex :)
01[09:28] {Threei}  - The German press reported that the Bundesbank expects creditors will have to agree on new Greece bailout in early 2014.
01[09:28] {Threei}  sounds about right
01[09:28] {Threei}  looks l,ike folks now are confused which room to join
[09:31] {nemo} techno darwinism
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .70 break
01[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:32] {Threei}  1:1
[09:38] {dino} .
01[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .90 break
01[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  104
01[09:40] {Threei}  change to 104 break
01[09:41] {Threei}  change to .15 break break
01[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .21
01[09:44] {Threei}  grrr... 1 vent to 1:1
01[09:44] {Threei}  cent
[09:45] {dino} har hl s .14
[09:48] {dino} cov har .80, +.34
[09:49] {robbers} wtg.
01[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .85 break
[09:50] {dino} ty
01[09:50] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[09:50] {cc_9} over extended GDX
[09:53] {nemo} not really, just above R2
[09:53] {nemo} 27.68 is Weekly R1
01[09:54] {Threei}  die GDX... nice double top
01[09:56] {Threei}  Ron... _ is not necessary :)
[09:57] {dino} snts drop
01[09:57] {Threei}  finally
01[09:57] {Threei}  1:1
[09:58] {cc_9} needs to get below 27.60 for a nice flush
[09:58] {robbers} Out in full, thanks.
01[09:58] {Threei}  yw
[09:58] {cc_9} Bloomberg trader "there is a run on gold physical"
01[09:59] {Threei}  idiot
[10:02] {cc_9} GDX trying to hold that 27.70 intraday support
[10:02] {nemo} the persistence algo I use has not a single stock on the weak side
[10:04] {cc_9} nemo, Trade-Ideas ?
[10:05] {nemo} no, friend of mine trades for Kirshner, he developed an algo they use-lets me view it
[10:05] {nemo} shows bid/offer persistence on a specific universe of stocks
[10:07] {cc_9} Miners resilient once again
[10:07] {nemo} .68 important weekly level
[10:08] {dino} col sm l .20 pulp
[10:09] {cc_9} anyone still short GDX ?
01[10:10] {Threei}  1:2
01[10:10] {Threei}  of course
[10:11] {dino} col stop .90, -.30
[10:14] {cc_9} out DUST (instead of shorting GDX, I went long DUST)
[10:14] {dino} reload col .60
[10:15] {dino} out col .20, +.60
01[10:17] {&Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .30 break
01[10:18] {&Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:18] {&Threei}  1:1
[10:20] {cc_9} im prob gonna regret having dumped DUST at these levels, could see another $2 upside
01[10:20] {&Threei}  I still have 1/4 GDX, .76 stop
01[10:22] {&Threei}  closed
[10:23] {dino} hl s cbrx .73
[10:23] {cc_9} TSLA back to session lows
03[10:30] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
01[10:33] {&Threei}  come on SPY, break down and die
[10:35] {cc_9} I take that back, no regrets on GDX/DUST :)
01[10:35] {&Threei}  yeah
01[10:36] {&Threei}  things have hard time with contunation on a short side
[10:36] {dino} been that way for months
01[10:36] {&Threei}  and long is not really an option after such jumps, market just stalls
01[10:36] {&Threei}  yup
01[10:38] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .80 rbeak
01[10:41] {&Threei}  If holds  .85
01[10:45] {&Threei}  meh
[10:52] {nemo} gdx short signals, but it's close to vwap
[10:59] {nemo} IWM kissed the weekly pivot
[11:00] {nemo} So, Vad...can I change my nick?
01[11:00] {&Threei}  depends... to what?
[11:00] {nemo} dickhead?
[11:00] {nemo} tempting, huh?
01[11:01] {&Threei}  why would you want to leave no room for people'simagination
[11:01] {nemo} more room for shock, when I start talking nicely about animals
[11:02] {nemo} SPY gap fill, only finnies weak as they were on Friday
01[11:11] {&Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .80 break
01[11:11] {&Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:12] {dino} apd sm l .72
01[11:14] {&Threei}  1:1
01[11:18] {&Threei}  This morning, BlackBerry announced another exploration of strategic alternatives, but this time it's likely that the board would like to try and sell the entire company before it is too late.
[11:20] {dino} ston drop
[11:21] {robbers} Out in full, thanks.
01[11:21] {&Threei}  :)
01[11:24] {&Threei}  1:2
01[11:30] {&Threei}  closed on a trail
01[11:30] {&Threei}  decent day shapes up
01[11:30] {&Threei}  still have to finish room restoration, mibbit is still down
[11:39] {nemo} CeeCee, think you can pay attention to dust here
[11:44] {dino} dust, and yo think i trade crazy
01[11:44] {&Threei}  lol, no kidding
[11:44] {nemo} well, short signals on GDX and it seems to be his binky
[11:44] {dino} too fast for me
[11:45] {nemo} yeah, that LII could be cardiac inducing
[11:49] {dino} out apd .12, +.40
01[12:17] {&Threei}  http://hmpg.net/
[12:17] {nemo} yeah, I'll interact with my neighbors
01[12:18] {&Threei}  poor guys
[12:18] {nemo} http://bit.ly/16GbTNg
[12:21] {cc_9} GDX a little toppy intraday here
01[12:50] {&Threei}  BlackBerry Canada Govt releases statement on BlackBerry, notes that it recognizes the company is exploring alternatives in order to increase its competitiveness- Govt will not comment on speculation about the future of the company.
[12:55] {cc_9} News just in : GDX will never go down
[12:55] {cc_9} miners have somehow found a way to get around rising costs
01[12:56] {&Threei}  lol
[12:59] {Will49} Checking in
[13:00] {robbers} Hi Will, nice to see you.
01[13:00] {&Threei}  hwy will
01[13:00] {&Threei}  hey
[13:00] {Will49} Hi Guys..just checking in to keep my settings current
[13:01] {Will49} busy, busy summer. Will be back in the saddle in Sept
[13:01] {Will49} cheers
[13:02] {~KSystems} invasion?
[13:03] {cc_9} looks like that statement was the top call on GDX lol
01[13:03] {&Threei}  as always
[13:11] {bbobr} Hi
01[13:12] {&Threei}  hi bbobr
01[13:12] {&Threei}  things are getting fixed...
[13:14] {cc_9} CLF, boy did I miss that reversal...someone asked this AM if it was shortable.
[13:14] {cc_9} (its not)
[13:14] {nemo} sheesh, finnies letting go
[13:18] {cc_9} short GDX here, stop 28.20
[13:18] {cc_9} tgt 27.60
[13:18] {dino} amri drop
[13:19] {cc_9} AMRI any news ?
[13:20] {RonS}  Albany Molecular Files Form 8-K Disclosing Termination Of Development Of BMS-820836 With Bristol-Myers Squibb via Benzinga
01[13:20] {&Threei}  AMRI Discloses it has been informed that BMY has decided to terminate development of BMS-820836; sees no impact on guidance for Q3 and FY13 - filing
[13:21] {cc_9} who sees no impact on guidance
[13:22] {dino} amri sm l .60
[13:24] {cc_9} AMRI looks like can bounce to $11+
[13:26] {cc_9} big spread, should bring in chasers
[13:27] {cc_9} any print 10.80 should get the bids going
[13:27] {cc_9} meanwhile GDX slowly working
[13:27] {ese} well well ....lookie here.......
01[13:28] {&Threei}  wow
01[13:28] {&Threei}  ese found us
01[13:28] {&Threei}  after being lost in cyberspace for 3 days
[13:28] {RonS} ...the beat goes on...
01[13:28] {&Threei}  lol
[13:28] {nemo} mmmhhh, and to think I was attributing the pleasant environment to Les' absence
01[13:29] {&Threei}  ese, you never got any e-mails about reserve room?
[13:29] {nemo} funny, his name wasn't in the mailing list
[13:29] {RonS} lol
[13:30] {nemo} Hey Ron:  http://bit.ly/16GbTNg
[13:30] {cc_9} AMRI volume spike (seller got out)
01[13:31] {&Threei}  GDX approaches bounce p]oint
[13:31] {nemo} vwap here
[13:31] {ese} am outta here wednesday for Iceland and Denmark
01[13:31] {&Threei}  sucks to be you...
[13:32] {nemo} sucks to be Iceland and Denmark
01[13:32] {&Threei}  lol
[13:32] {ese} wheres Les............he needs to come up and see me and catch a show
[13:32] {nemo} Switzerland
[13:32] {ese} L cvc .89
[13:33] {nemo} think he's vacationing with the family
[13:35] {ese} ah
[13:35] {ese} damn stopped .82 -.07
[13:36] {dino} out amri flat
[13:37] {+cc_9} AMRI, still thinking $11 is doable
[13:37] {+cc_9} (chart based only, no fundamentalm DD done here)
[13:37] {+cc_9} sell volume all got bought
[13:38] {+cc_9} stock made its double bottom
[13:38] {+cc_9} There goes $11.00
[13:39] {+cc_9} Thanks for the AMRI alert.
[13:40] {dino} bummer on amri, chickened out
[13:41] {dino} i like re-load around 10
[13:41] {dino} side track day, contractor here
[13:42] {+cc_9} dino, this is how I traded AMRI }} http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/2769/miq1.jpg
[13:44] {ese} if ya don't want me here just say so
01[13:45] {&Threei}  ?
01[13:45] {&Threei}  everything is fixed
01[13:46] {&Threei}  round of applause to KSystems who went to hell and back about three times over last days to find the way around multiple tech support sabotage attempts
01[13:47] {&Threei}  ese, if you experience disconnects again, that's your normal issue with telus which seems to be premanent problem
01[13:48] {&Threei}  so, we resolved extraordinary problem and back to tregular ones :)
01[13:50] {&Threei}  crap, GDX bounced by the schedule but with no clear setup
01[13:54] {&Threei} Short Setup: BBRY  .50 break
01[13:54] {&Threei}  If holds  .55
[13:56] {nemo} spy might make lowest yearly volume today
01[13:56] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  28 break
01[13:56] {&Threei}  If holds  .05
[13:58] {dino} cc9, nice trades on amri, gj. i hit it too early
[14:01] {+cc_9} all good
[14:06] {nemo} could make an argument for FAS long here
01[14:10] {&Threei}  NYSE volume 310M shares, about 13% below its three-month average - - NASDAQ volume 900M shares, about 14% below its three-month average
01[14:14] {&Threei}  OPEN Facebook to allow mobile users to make reservations using OPENtable - tech blogs
[14:14] {dino} open spike
[14:14] {dino} sm s .10
[14:15] {dino} cov open .60, +.50
01[14:16] {&Threei}  nice hit
[14:17] {dino} ty
01[14:18] {&Threei}  I'd sy, hit-n'run
[14:23] {dino} fb allows open to make reservations thru fb
01[14:23] {&Threei}  lol... take me off ignore, dino
[14:23] {dino} cbrx stop .85 -.07, thing doesn't move
[14:24] {dino} lol, missed that
[14:36] {nemo} could play gdx long here if you think it'll hold the channel
[14:37] {nemo} think I'd lean short though
[14:38] {+cc_9} i think we see something similar to Friday's close GDX
[14:38] {+cc_9} some profit taking and setup for tomorrow
[14:38] {nemo} my equanimity perhaps implies no edge
[14:39] {dino} apd lod
[14:41] {nemo} ahhhh, bunny shows up for her afternoon raisin ration...She'd hop into the oven for those
[14:45] {nemo} yep, GDX holding the channel
[15:14] {+cc_9} SSO/SPY volume picked up, should be a fun close
01[15:14] {&Threei}  trying to find final trade
[15:14] {nemo} he has a funny definition of "fun"
[15:21] {+cc_9} well, by fun, i do mean some volatility
[15:21] {+cc_9} otherwise, forget what i said
01[15:22] {&Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .35 break
01[15:22] {&Threei}  If holds  .45
[15:23] {dino} jcp spike
01[15:23] {&Threei}  JC Penney Company Inc (Holding Co) Shareholders Soros and Glenview reportedly supportive of the company in its dispute against Ackman - financial press
[15:23] {dino} calling it a day, good one. thx for ideas
01[15:24] {&Threei}  take care dino
[15:25] {dino} ty
[15:29] {+cc_9} here we go GDX, lets get that EOD fade
[15:44] {+cc_9} I will be satisfied with DUST @ $64-$65 EOD
01[15:47] {&Threei}  meh
[15:47] {Alexs} stop is .46 isn't it?
01[15:48] {&Threei}  yeah but time is getting tight
[15:48] {Alexs} ok
01[15:48] {&Threei}  and I doubt it can do more than giving us breaeven exit at best
01[15:50] {&Threei}  ok, let's close it
01[15:51] {&Threei}  out .34
01[15:51] {&Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:52] {&Threei}  tomorrow we should be fully back to normal
[15:52] {Alexs} take care, ty
[15:52] {+cc_9} DUST $63, GDX printing lowest bid since 11:15AM
[15:54] {+cc_9} drop drop drop
[15:58] {+cc_9} what a dog
[15:58] {+cc_9} a demain

Friday, August 9, 2013

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market Update: Chinese data provides a boost in an otherwise lackluster week


- There was sluggish, lower volume trading this week as global markets appear to have entered some late summer doldrums. Decent US and Chinese trade data and pretty solid July Chinese economic data helped tamp down fears about a Chinese economic slump. The US weekly jobless claims crossed a key level as the four-week average of initial claims fell to levels last seen before the official beginning of recession in November 2007. Europe saw good UK industrial production data and decent final July European services PMI.I However events looming later in September seemed to dampen enthusiasm, while the 1700 level in the S&P500 provided an insurmountable psychological barrier for US equities. Note that there has been much talk among analysts that next month will see a jump higher in market volatility, with a possible Fed taper, fiscal policy battles in Washington and elections in Germany all likely contributing to an unsettled situation. For the week, the DJIA fell 1.5%, the S&P500 declined 1.1% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8%.

- The emerging consensus for a reduction in Fed QE purchases starting in September was reinforced this week by comments from Fed officials Fisher, Evans and Lockhart. Known hawk Fisher said the Fed should start the taper in September unless it sees any disturbing data, while the more dovish Evans said he would not rule out a taper beginning in September. Lockhart commented that monthly NFP gains of around 180-200K would be the right level to start tapering.

- Trade data published by the US and China got plenty of attention this week. The US June trade deficit dropped 22.4% to $34.2 billion, the lowest level since October 2009 and well below May's $44.1 billion figure. Exports rose slightly to $191.2 billion. Analysts point out that the trade deficit is turning out to be much lower than assumed by the Commerce Department, which could put the second reading of Q2 GDP as high as +2.3% versus the advance estimate of +1.7%. The China July trade data saw imports up 10.9% y/y and exports to the US up more than 5%.

- The other July data out of China suggested talk about an economic slowdown may be overdone. Industrial production pushed out to +9.7%, a five-month high, complementing the good trade figures and the very good PMI data out last week. Auto sales and bank lending topped expectations, while CPI and PPI statistics indicated inflation is relatively contained. Electricity production, widely considered a more honest gauge of Chinese growth, surged 8.1% in to record levels. Commodities got a jolt in the arm from the data, with copper up more than 3% on the week.

- Data indicates that the great rotation out of bonds is continuing. In the week ended August 7, investors redeemed $4.0B from Treasury bond funds, equal to 1.3% of assets under management, making for the worst week of outflows on record for the asset class. In a note to investors, a BoA/Merrill analyst noted that in the same week, $10B flowed into developed market equities.

- Dow components IBM and Disney lost a lot of ground this week, weighing on the index. Disney mostly met expectations on decent y/y growth in its Q3 report, however it also disclosed that it would take a loss of $160-190M on the 'Lone Ranger' film a little more than a year after its big write off for 'John Carter.' IBM fell on reports that most workers in its US hardware unit would be required to take one week off with reduced pay due to continuing slack in markets. In addition, Credit Suisse cut IBM to underperform from neutral on Tuesday, warning that future organic growth will be challenging.

- Tesla has sustained 20% gains following the firm's stunning outperformance after both earnings and revenue absolutely crushed expectations in its second quarter. Margins were very good and deliveries hit 5,000 cars versus the firm's expectation for 4,500. Multiple analyst firms raised PTs and ratings on the name. The company is now valued at about $18B, approximately half the valuation of Ford, which prompted Forbes to ask whether it's not a case of "irrational exuberance."

- JC Penny gained approximately 10% on Thursday after reports that Bill Ackman was pushing the company's board to speed up the search for a new chief to replace interim CEO Ullman within a month or so. Ackman said CEO Questrom could return as chairman under the right conditions. Shares fell 4% or so after the board shot back that it disagreed with his position, prompting Ackman to demand a board meeting ASAP.

- Last week and into the first half of this week the 1.3300 level in EUR/USD provided insurmountable resistance. The US trade data on Tuesday was not able to propel the dollar higher, but the combination of disappointment with the BoE inflation report and a big gain in Chinese imports from the US in Wednesday's China trade report did the trick. EUR/USD broke above 1.3300 and tested 1.3400 on Thursday for the first time since mid June. Dollar strength didn't last and EUR/USD closed out the week below 1.3350. Analysts say that against G10 currencies (particularly the EUR), the greenback is having real difficulties and could come under pressure over the next few weeks, while the opposite is true for the currencies of nations running a current account deficit.

- The BoE Inflation Report was the highlight of the week in FX markets. The BoE has followed in the footsteps of the Fed and the ECB and offered formal policy guidance, pledging not tighten policy until unemployment falls below a 7% threshold. There were two caveats to this guidance: rates could rise even with unemployment above threshold if inflation was above 2.5% in 18-24 months or QE policies threatened "financial instability." GBP/USD fell 100 pips to approach the 1.5200 level in the immediate aftermath of the report before bouncing higher to the 1.55 area through the latter half of the week.

- The week-long slide in the Nikkei225 strengthened the yen. USD/JPY continued to retrace after the failure to hold above the 100.00 last week. The pair traded below 96.00 briefly on Thursday following the BOJ decision, which did not include any fresh stimulus measures. The yen closed around five-week highs on Friday.

- AUD/USD dropped to three-year lows below the 0.89 handle last week. Weak data and the China slow down has driven the aussie lower. The Australia Central Bank cut its main rate by 25 bps to 2.5% as expected on Tuesday, and the decision plus the better China data helped push AUD/USD back up to the 0.92 handle. Dealers noted that the statement was less dovish compare to a recent speech given by Governor Stevens in late July.




TradeTheNews

Aug 09 2013

Decently profitable day, thus finishing with 9 profitable days out of last 10. No complaints at all. Hopefully main server is up till Monday morning; we will update members as work progresses. 


09:08) cipher: morning Vad
(09:08) Threei: morning cipher
(09:09) Threei: found that e-mail?
(09:09) cipher: main srver is sill down?
(09:09) Threei: or, got today's?
(09:09) cipher: didn't check yet
(09:09) Threei: ok... you didn't...   We just sent an ipdate about main server, scheduled for Monday
(09:11) cipher: ok, found the first email you sent on Wed in junk folder  
(09:11) cipher: nothing from today
(09:11) Threei: how about today's?
(09:11) Threei: hmmm
(09:11) cipher: strange
(09:12) Threei: maybe isn't there yet, it was just about 5-10 min ago
(09:12) Threei: but if it goes in junk folder again, you may want to unblock our address manually
(09:13) cipher: I get all Sunday emails with no problem
(09:14) Threei: must be something in e-mail text that triggered spam filter
(09:15) Threei: folks, I am not very keen on cleaning the log. Please use your own nicks without profabity
(09:15) nemo: Sheesh...we get a few days to have a little fun, and we get Babushka'd
(09:16) cipher: let me guess... nemo?
(09:16) nemo: what gave it away?
(09:16) cipher: your broken russian  
(09:16) Threei: lol
(09:17) nemo: think of the irony of Vad asking us to use are real...ahem..."nick"
(09:17) nemo: our
(09:18) nemo: this frickin' rabbit begs for raisins day and night...sheesh
(09:18) nemo: Actually  "nemo" is in "demon".  I'm helping the reader with there pattern recognition skills  ;-)
(09:19) nemo: their
(09:19) dino: gm
(09:20) Threei: dino  
(09:20) nemo: Sgt. Killjoy
(09:25) RonS: good morning everyone
(09:25) Alexs: gm
(09:25) nemo: bbry looks weak, but near 61.8 retrace
(09:25) Threei: ron, alex  
(09:28) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx, fade today or continuation from yesterday ?
(09:28) nemo: yes
(09:29) Threei: whatever setups shape up...
(09:29) Threei: why guess
(09:29) Threei: so far short setup fporms. .80 break
(09:29) nemo: spy at daily pivot
(09:30) bbobr: gm
(09:30) Threei: bbobr  
(09:30) Cee_Cee_9: Will get short if breaks 25.70
(09:31) Threei: Short BBRY .80 break
(09:31) Threei: If holds .90
(09:32) Threei: Short GDX .85 break
(09:33) Threei: Invalidated
(09:33) Threei: BBRY half out
(09:33) Threei: stop to .85
(09:34) Threei: to .81 now
(09:35) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx still looks doable 
(09:35) Threei: what the
(09:35) Cee_Cee_9: yup
(09:37) Threei: wow
(09:37) Threei: no news
(09:37) Threei: who unplugged miners?
(09:37) Threei: BBRY 1:2
(09:39) dino: modn
(09:39) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx...that was quick
(09:40) dino: modn sm l .29
(09:40) dino: amx sm l .81
(09:40) Threei: quick and probably very painful
(09:42) dino: avg?
(09:42) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx bid dropping
(09:45) dino: avg hl l .48
(09:46) Cee_Cee_9: Iwm/spy, that was a reversal and a half from pre-market
(09:47) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx bid, need .50s again
(09:47) Threei: Short GDX .60 break
(09:48) Threei: If holds .70
(09:48) Threei: disregard
(09:48) Threei: let's short it right here, .64
(09:48) Threei: same .71 stop
(09:49) Cee_Cee_9: Auy session lows, need Abx to flush
(09:50) dino: modn stop .00-.29
(09:51) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx grrr, could not flush .50s
(09:51) Threei: no go
(09:54) dino: modn sm l .76
(09:54) Threei: Long C .85 break
(09:54) Threei: If holds .80
(09:58) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx, make up your mind
(09:58) nemo: 2nd Friday in August,,,maybe not
(10:00) Threei:  *(US) JUN WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: -0.2% V 0.4%E 
(10:01) Threei: WHOLESALE TRADE SALES M/M: 0.4% V 0.7%E 
(10:01) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx blah...
(10:02) Threei: what isn't
(10:02) dino: things are slow
(10:03) nemo: Iwm and Spy crawled back up into yesterday's range, probably it for the day
(10:04) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx, that was a waste of time, back to highs
(10:05) Cee_Cee_9: Gld sideways, miners slight bump...will revisit Gdx under 25.80
(10:06) Threei: Short CAT .20 break
(10:06) Threei: if holds .30
(10:06) dino: onxx drop
(10:07) Threei: quick 1:1
(10:07) dino: avg st .32 -.16
(10:08) Threei: 1:2
(10:08) Threei: 1:3, out
(10:09) Cee_Cee_9: Amed, looking for long entry once intraday bottom is in, testing $17 bid now.
(10:09) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx unreal
(10:16) Threei: short GDX .15 break
(10:16) Threei: if holds .20
(10:16) nemo: Lvs
(10:17) dino: avg hl l .20
(10:19) Cee_Cee_9: Amed decent bounce
(10:21) dino: 07 red
(10:21) Cee_Cee_9: Amed .70s
(10:21) Cee_Cee_9: $17.00 was solid intraday support
(10:24) Cee_Cee_9: Amed scalp >> http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/4762/0exd.jpg
(10:24) Threei: 1:1
(10:24) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx fast fall
(10:24) Threei: finally nailed the bastard
(10:25) Alexs: lol
(10:26) Cee_Cee_9: All out Amed if anyone else was in. +$0.59
(10:26) Threei: wtg
((10:27) Cee_Cee_9: now need this Gdx to drop some
(10:32) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx nice
(10:33) Threei: 1:2
(10:44) Threei: One of the most beautiful dogs I've met: http://goo.gl/ddEdRt
(10:49) Cee_Cee_9: Very nice range today Spy
(10:49) Cee_Cee_9: Those band tightening @ yesterday's close before the pop, great setup
(10:54) Cee_Cee_9: here i thought the S&p would be boring today
(10:57) Cee_Cee_9: Cranking lows Iwm/spy
(11:00) Cee_Cee_9: Miners @ highs
(11:04) Cee_Cee_9: Any news on this tank ?
(11:05) Threei: not really
(11:05) dino: airm odd for miss
(11:06) RonS: wane must do a lot of work:  Canada loses 39, 400 jobs as government hires wane
(11:06) Cee_Cee_9: Thats punishment on Spy/iwm for no news
(11:06) Cee_Cee_9: volume accelerating
(11:07) dino: cbrx sm s .79 
(11:07) Cee_Cee_9: meanwhile, miners completely unaffected
(11:07) dino: airm short trig brk of .00
(11:08) Cee_Cee_9: Long Tna 57.87 first scale
(11:09) Cee_Cee_9: Looking for 58.30 target
(11:11) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx @ Hod, beats me.
(11:13) Threei: works as a hdege to SPY today
(11:14) Threei: Update: Eiffel Tower reopened at 4:30 p.m. local time following a bomb threat
(11:14) Threei: whew... can climb back up
(11:16) Cee_Cee_9: Le fromage is safe, I repeat, le fromage is safe
(11:16) Cee_Cee_9: Tna catching some bids
(11:16) Threei: nemo, look dcc
(11:17) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx popped lid off Hod
(11:17) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx no wall till 26.50 at this rate
(11:19) Cee_Cee_9: miners on a major rally, thats rare
(11:21) Cee_Cee_9: Tna, that was short lived, still in. Second scale set for 57.37
(11:28) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx smacked that 26.50 before slight pullback
(11:29) RonS: becn pulpy little mover...
(11:32) dino: big miss
(11:32) RonS: from estimates...up yoy
(11:33) dino: miss by .09, miss on revs too, fwiw, which isn't much
(11:33) Cee_Cee_9: Look at that Amed from earlier, massive reversal off that $17
(11:34) dino: out amx .90, +.09 thing won't move
(11:34) RonS: when you firt typed amed thought mistyped amen
(11:34) RonS: first
(11:34) RonS: amx 1.9 bil sh float dino
(11:35) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx back to session highs. Iwm coming back
(11:35) dino: made a bid for another co is all i see
(11:36) RonS: ya but it's Carlos Slim who overpays for everything...especially bribes to get monopolies...
(11:37) RonS: std came out and said the amx integration w/ the purchased company was going to be very difficult
(11:38) dino: std, yuk
(11:40) RonS: Banco Santander...spanish bank w/ heavy so.american presence
(11:40) dino:    , horrible symbol
(11:41) RonS: but great emoticon...
(11:45) Threei: There is a strong whiff of risk aversion in the air this morning despite  better China data. Second consecutive month of declines in wholesale inventories  has driven stocks lower
(11:47) RonS: always thought here that declines were good, increases bad...
(11:47) dino: i try not to think. everyday talking heads have a reason, but never before the move
(11:49) dino: tomorrow they will say, markets are flat as its the weekend
(11:49) Cee_Cee_9: Tna so far so good, $0.20 for tgt
(11:50) RonS: but when will they report the search party for ese...
(11:50) Cee_Cee_9: Tna boom out 58.20 from 57.87
(11:50) Cee_Cee_9: 58.27*
(11:50) RonS: gj
(11:50) Cee_Cee_9: thx
(11:50) Cee_Cee_9: had me sweating for a bit
(11:51) Cee_Cee_9: it hit that 58.30 like clockwork before first bid drop
(11:56) dino: avg to flat, thing won't move
(12:04) RonS: avg special board meeting announced for Sept...modn dead too...
(12:04) Cee_Cee_9: If the pattern is correct, Spy tries to hold 169.10 neckline and gets another rip
(12:04) Cee_Cee_9: (2min chart)
(12:05) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx no mercy, new highs
(12:06) cipher has left.
(12:06) cipher has joined.
(12:10) Cee_Cee_9: looks like the I-h&s was $0.10 lower, but still going now Iwm
(12:11) dino: wwww hl l .00
(12:11) Cee_Cee_9: boom, there goes the pop on indexes on that slight pullback
(12:11) Cee_Cee_9: very very nice play there if anyone took it
(12:12) Cee_Cee_9: Tna all the way almost $1.00 from that first scale
(12:13) dino: out ave .42, +.22
(12:13) Cee_Cee_9: we should start seeing from profit taking in the miners imo
(12:18) nemo: any betts spy closes within earshot of 170?
(12:22) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx closing is the million dollar question
(12:22) Cee_Cee_9: Its the only one I cannot figure out today, no fade, no profit taking yet, nada. Miners still trying to hold up highs
(12:22) nemo: ahhh, today's female stock
(12:23) nemo: Vad still here?
(12:25) dino: out wwww .30, +.30
(12:27) nemo: http://read.bi/1exmb6d
(12:28) Cee_Cee_9: this Gdx just won't let go
(12:28) nemo: probably wants to test 27
(12:29) nemo: wow is it raining cats and dogs here today
(12:31) nemo: 27.03 is also the Weekly R1, 
(12:31) nemo: good place to shot if it gets there, although starting to see weakness now
(12:36) Cee_Cee_9: some fade here Gdx
(12:37) dino: we had that rain last night and early this morning nemo, enjoy it
(12:37) nemo: gdx should see support in .50 area
(12:37) nemo:  if not, back to vwap
12:43) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx come on baby, fade
(12:44) Cee_Cee_9: .50s I agree, that was previous wall
(12:52) nemo: maybe you should make the blog an image then instead
(12:57) Threei: ?
(13:01) Cee_Cee_9: nemo : http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/7672/3d72.jpg
(13:01) Cee_Cee_9: Let me know if that helps, its what I was looking at earlier when said this : Cee_cee_9: Gdx no wall till 26.50 at this rate
(13:03) Cee_Cee_9: Let me know if u were able to copy/paste that link (i dont think this chat allows u to click links)
(13:06) Cee_Cee_9: Funny hold Gld didn't actually do a %%%%% thing today
(13:12) Cee_Cee_9: Gld session lows, Gdx fading as well
(13:13) Cee_Cee_9: Sorry, not session lows on Gld, just pullback to 11:00am 
(13:14) Threei: watching for bounce to short
(13:14) Threei: hopefillu over .60, on recross
(13:15) Cee_Cee_9: Dust coming off bottom on Gdx fade
(13:15) Cee_Cee_9: looks good
(13:15) nemo: if gdx drops here .30ish
(13:16) Cee_Cee_9: I got 200 shares Dust, i never trade 200, but this thing scares the %%%%% out of me
(13:17) dino: why dust down w/gld down?
(13:18) Cee_Cee_9: Dust is inverse of Gdx
(13:18) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx does not follow Gld, it tracks the gold miners.
(13:18) Cee_Cee_9: Gld tracks gold futures
(13:19) nemo: Demon Spawn sicks his minions on Dino's brain
(13:19) dino: zolt spike
(13:19) Cee_Cee_9: Dust so far so good, Gdx fading nicely.
(13:19) Threei: grrr
(13:20) Threei: no bounce, straight drop
(13:20) nemo: Not sure Gdx gets to vwap
(13:20) nemo: bounce starting to setup there Ceeceerider
(13:20) Cee_Cee_9: My tgt on Gdx is 26.20 first support
(13:20) Cee_Cee_9: Should put Dust at ! $77s
(13:20) nemo: no will bounce at .30 Vwap
(13:20) Cee_Cee_9: ~ instead of !
(13:21) nemo: long signals setting up Gdx
(13:21) Cee_Cee_9: im staying short using Dust, stop @ entry $73.88
(13:22) Cee_Cee_9: tgt $77s / Gdx 26.20. Lets see how it goes
(13:22) nemo: In nomine Patre, et fili y spiritu sancti
(13:22) nemo: wow, that's really going against my grain
(13:24) Cee_Cee_9: I should stay praying?
(13:28) nemo: no man is a propet in his own land
(13:35) nemo: I'm having that Groundhog Day feeling
(13:36) dino: out modn .27, +.51
(13:37) RonS: gj
(13:37) nemo: index short signals again but weak
(13:46) dino: thx ron
(13:47) dino: airm s ave .20
(13:48) nemo: mmmhhhh....short signals were stronger than I thought
(13:48) nemo: hope you're out of Dust there Ceecee
(13:52) Threei: Short GDX .50 break if stays under .55
(13:52) Threei: If breaks it, new setups are every 5 cents
(13:55) dino: cov airm .79, +.41
(13:58) Threei: 1:1
(13:58) Cee_Cee_9: Die Gdx die die die
(13:58) Cee_Cee_9: go Dust go go go 
(13:58) Threei: lol
(13:58) Threei: boring but nicely profitable day
(13:59) dino: agreed
(13:59) Threei: if not for yesterday, we would have had 10 days winning streak
(13:59) Threei: yesterday needs to be taken outside and shot
(14:00) Threei: by firing squad of nemo, nemo and bow_before_zod
(14:00) nemo: and I got the hardware
(14:01) Threei: oh, and after execution yesterday should get the bill for ammo
(14:01) nemo: I'd rather a crucify them for a few days
(14:01) nemo: it would be fun to put it on a rotating cross you can turn upside down and introduce pinhole wounds to the carotids
(14:02) nemo: slicing the achilles would be interesting also
(14:02) Threei: these creative types...
(14:03) nemo: achilles injuries are suprisingly painful
(14:20) Cee_Cee_9: screw you Gdx, im done for the week
(14:20) Threei: lol
(14:21) nemo: higher high and all day uptrend
(14:31) Threei: Short GDX .65 break
(14:31) Threei: If stays under .70
(14:38) Threei: Obama signs student loan bill; law links interest rates to the financial markets
(14:38) RonS: ...the world is saved...
(14:39) Threei: ...again
(14:41) Threei: FCC said to have warned CBS and Time Warner to quickly settle their dispute or see regulators step in to settle it for them 
(14:42) dino: nue sm s .50
(14:46) Threei: Short GDX .70 break
(14:46) Threei: If holds .75
(14:47) nemo: might get .60 out of it
(14:48) dino: xon crazy
(14:48) dino: nue stop .60 -.10
(14:51) dino: rinsed
(15:04) Threei: meh
(15:08) nemo: well this afternoon is looking like yesterday afternoon.....that's enough of this...time to trim the nose hair
(15:10) dino: pmc drop
(15:12) dino: %%%%% missed pmc by nickle
(15:20) Cee_Cee_9: Obama "i dont want to meet with putin because gays this and gays that"
(15:20) Cee_Cee_9: Makes sense.
(15:27) Threei: ok last try
(15:27) Threei: Short GDX .85 break
(15:27) Threei: if holds .90
(15:28) Cee_Cee_9: Pmc some death
(15:30) Threei: change to ,90 break
(15:31) Threei: stop .95
(15:36) Cee_Cee_9: ok Gdx...i get it...u only go up today...u don't have to keep hitting fresh highs and appear on my scanner, %%%%% it
(15:37) Threei: lol
(15:38) Cee_Cee_9: Pmc prob worth a little scalp on that lawsuit afterbirth drop
(15:41) Cee_Cee_9: Round Ii Dust on monday, Gdx in channel territory 26.50 max 27.50
(15:41) Cee_Cee_9: we see profit taking at this level for a correction
(15:41) Cee_Cee_9: Dust tanked $30 since yesterday's open.
(15:42) dino: nemo, you still here?
(15:43) nemo: ?
(15:43) nemo: workin' the trimmer
(15:44) dino: i lost my favorites on free stock charts/vwap. what is site address? freestockcharts.com not opening
(15:44) nemo: what browser you using
(15:44) Threei: OK guys, here is to hopefilly room server being fixed before Monday morning
(15:44) Cee_Cee_9: Dino, use this one, its better : https://www.tradingview.com/
(15:44) Cee_Cee_9: tradingview i find it to be pretty good.
(15:45) Threei: have a great weekend, see you next week!
(15:45) Cee_Cee_9: ciao vad
(15:45) dino: i will look at it, but do yo have the other address?
(15:46) nemo: http://www.freestockcharts.com/     seems to be working fine for me
(15:47) dino: odd, i get a blank page
(15:48) Cee_Cee_9: if cannot get freestockcharts, get tradingview
(15:48) dino: thx
(15:48) Cee_Cee_9: if dont want tradingview, take a hammer at the pc
(15:48) Cee_Cee_9: should work after
(15:49) dino: idiot move, i deleted favorites and cannot get it back open
(15:49) Cee_Cee_9: thats what weekends are for dino
(15:49) nemo: you should be able to type freestockcharts.com  having said that, run restore on your Pc
(15:50) Cee_Cee_9: also, try on various browsers, chrome / firefox
(15:50) dino: did that but did not restore it
(15:50) nemo: you should still be able to get into freestockcharts....what browser u use?
(15:51) dino: explorer
(15:51) nemo: try chrome
(15:51) Cee_Cee_9: explorer = not even once
(15:52) Cee_Cee_9: ok folks, have a good one
(15:52) Cee_Cee_9: Gdx is fading and i cant look at it 
(15:52) Cee_Cee_9 has left.
(15:52) nemo: I told him earlier wait until 27
(15:52) nemo: Dino, it doesn't make sense you can't open Freestockcharts.com
(15:53) dino: its gives me the left side ads, but blank white where my charts were
(15:53) dino: installing chrome
(15:53) nemo: maybe you need to run the fsc reset program
(15:54) Alexs: it's java problem dino
(15:54) nemo: dcc dino
(15:54) nemo: shouldn't be java, runs on Silverlight
(15:55) dino: same w/chrome, ads but no charts
(15:56) Alexs: check silverlight

Thursday, August 8, 2013

Aug 08 2013

Room server still down, garbled log (wrong setting in unfamiliar software) and a few too many stops - can you say "not our day?" Oh well, finishing two-weeks winning streak, was to be expected. 

Update on server fix: so far, looks like hard drive replacement and database restoring sets us for Monday to return to main room. Will send an update as work progresses. Thank you for your patience!

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Aug 07 2013

Decent day albeit more boring than last week and a half. Most trades were scalps, with notable exception of CAT reversal trade. Also, we are having server troubles so using reserve room for now - those who missed alert e-mail, check your junk box. In case server is not fixed overnight, use reserve room again; check your sign-up e-mail for the address or e-mail us  if you lost it.

(Aug 07-10:23) Threei: 1:1
(Aug 07-10:24) Threei:  
(Aug 07-10:27) dino: hbc stop .57 -.17
(Aug 07-10:27) Threei: Long FB 38 break
(Aug 07-10:28) Threei: If holds .90
(Aug 07-10:28) Threei: Just got a woerd from tech re: server. I quote: "No seriously.... WTF????"
(Aug 07-10:30) cc_9: Grabbing some Sso here 84.65 for a market reversal.
(Aug 07-10:30) Threei: valid still FB
(Aug 07-10:31) Threei: 1:1
(Aug 07-10:32) dino: sbgi hl l .30
(Aug 07-10:33) cc_9: Spy looking for 168.90 for Sso tgt
(Aug 07-10:34) Threei: everything is just a scalp
(Aug 07-10:34) RonS: guess ese lost in the woods...
(Aug 07-10:37) cc_9: Spy 168.60 fighting hard to hold
(Aug 07-10:39) Threei: he doesn't read his e-mails Ron
(Aug 07-10:40) Threei: in fact he doesn't always remember he has e-mail set up
(Aug 07-10:41) cc_9: cc_9: going long Sso @ Spy 168.60 range first support (comment from earlier).
(Aug 07-10:42) cc_9: So far its the first level to try and hold as intraday support, now need to get over 168.80. No increase in volume yet, just ranging for now
(Aug 07-10:42) Threei: CVV: Ticks higher on circulation from clean energy blog that highlights next generation "carbon nanotube" battery technology, which CVD and others are developing
(Aug 07-10:42) cc_9: Here we go.
(Aug 07-10:43) Threei: thid is one of those things that either flops completely or doubles in one day
(Aug 07-10:43) dino: out sbgi .55 +.25
(Aug 07-10:43) cc_9: Spy clearing 168.80, $0.10 off tgt
(Aug 07-10:44) cc_9: Sso position +$0.20 so far
(Aug 07-10:49) dino: eog vsm l .25
(Aug 07-10:50) cc_9: Big spike Spy vol + fat finger
(Aug 07-10:50) cc_9: by fat finger I mean misprint
(Aug 07-10:55) cc_9: Giddy up 168.90
(Aug 07-10:56) cc_9: good goy
(Aug 07-10:57) cc_9: i mean, good boy
(Aug 07-10:57) nemo: Freudian
(Aug 07-10:57) nemo: in a Jewish sorta' way
(Aug 07-10:57) RonS: My Jewish girlfriend used to say that...
(Aug 07-10:57) nemo: what?  she call you a goy boy?
(Aug 07-10:58) RonS: goy toy...
(Aug 07-10:58) nemo: that was my next thought
(Aug 07-10:58) nemo: Ron the "dredel
(Aug 07-10:58) Threei: rofl
(Aug 07-10:58) dino: lol
(Aug 07-10:58) RonS: if she wasn't so top heavy she would have been a spinner...
(Aug 07-10:59) nemo: ahhh, big head, huh?
(Aug 07-10:59) dino: bazinga
(Aug 07-11:00) Threei: frikin FB
(Aug 07-11:02) cc_9: Anyone else played that Spy bounce off 168.60 ? prob my only trade for the day
(Aug 07-11:05) thomcbell: Long Setup Ddd -  45.01 break if holding 44.90
(Aug 07-11:07) thomcbell: ddd invalidated
(Aug 07-11:10) cc_9: at last, Spy @ 168.90 target. All out Sso 85.00 + $0.35.
(Aug 07-11:11) dino: regn vsm l .86
(Aug 07-11:11) Threei: Short GDX .35 break if holds .40
(Aug 07-11:13) thomcbell: ddd still on watch here
(Aug 07-11:15) thomcbell: rats on the Fb
(Aug 07-11:16) dino: silc partial l .63
(Aug 07-11:18) Threei: rats it is
(Aug 07-11:19) pragmatic has left.
(Aug 07-11:20) RonS: wow, guess he really is...
(Aug 07-11:20) Threei: lol
(Aug 07-11:20) Threei: no go
(Aug 07-11:24) Threei: Short Setup C .85 break
(Aug 07-11:24) Threei: If holds .95
(Aug 07-11:24) Threei: Change to .90 break
(Aug 07-11:24) Threei: aggressive
(Aug 07-11:25) Threei: same stop
(Aug 07-11:29) Threei: someone really wants to defend .90
(Aug 07-11:31) Threei: wow, what a determination
(Aug 07-11:38) Threei: finally
(Aug 07-11:47) dino: volume light again?
(Aug 07-11:48) Threei: about 10% under 3-month's average
(Aug 07-11:49) Threei: ok C, lose that .85
(Aug 07-11:49) Threei: and die
(Aug 07-11:49) dino: nvgn spike
(Aug 07-11:50) dino: ete spike
(Aug 07-11:52) Threei: Defense attorneys want to be removed from duties to assist Fort Hood shooting suspect while he 'seeks' death penalty
(Aug 07-11:52) Threei: why... assist him by all means necessary
(Aug 07-11:53) Threei: up to shooting him on a spot
(Aug 07-11:55) Threei: 1:1 is close enough
(Aug 07-11:55) Threei: half out
(Aug 07-11:55) Threei: stop to .91
(Aug 07-11:57) dino: etp spike
(Aug 07-11:58) nemo: Rax looks good short to 44.50 area
(Aug 07-11:59) Threei: NVGN halt, circuit breaker
(Aug 07-12:03) dino: funny how they only pick select stocks to halt
(Aug 07-12:04) dino: rexx spike
(Aug 07-12:05) RonS: ...depends if the mm firm is getting burned or making out...imo
(Aug 07-12:05) dino: rexx hl s .76
(Aug 07-12:11) dino: sbgi .60 l trig
(Aug 07-12:11) dino: rexx cov flat
(Aug 07-12:19) Threei: Second quarter $GOOG Android shipments were more than quadruple $AAPL iOS
(Aug 07-12:19) Threei: BBRY is nowhere to be found
(Aug 07-12:20) nemo has left.
(Aug 07-12:20) dino: 2.5% bbry, aapl 13%, goog/droid 67%
(Aug 07-12:23) Threei: sic transit gloria mundi
(Aug 07-12:23) Threei: C too turned out to be a scalp
(Aug 07-12:27) RonS: onxx selling...
(Aug 07-12:32) RonS: amgn buying...something about a deal between two being posted...
(Aug 07-12:32) dino: amgn 130/sh rumor
(Aug 07-12:32) Threei: Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc Said to be within a week of closing a deal with Amgen, terms still seen at $130/shr
(Aug 07-12:36) dino: vsm amgn .00
(Aug 07-12:38) nemo has joined.
(Aug 07-12:39) Threei: Short C .15 break
(Aug 07-12:39) Threei: If holds .20
(Aug 07-12:41) Threei: Invalidated
(Aug 07-12:42) dino: out amgn 107.30, +1.30
(Aug 07-12:42) dino: too soon
(Aug 07-12:45) Threei: Short C .20 break
(Aug 07-12:46) Threei: Of holds .25
(Aug 07-12:58) cc_9: Glorious Spy bounce from 168.60 support
(Aug 07-12:59) Threei: meh
(Aug 07-13:00) dino: mhfi drop
(Aug 07-13:01) dino: sm l .40
(Aug 07-13:01) thomcbell: prlb 63 break hf holding 62.80 -
(Aug 07-13:01) thomcbell: half lot
(Aug 07-13:01) thomcbell: already lost once
(Aug 07-13:01) dino: out mhfi .81, +.41
(Aug 07-13:21) RonS: test
(Aug 07-13:22) Threei: passed
(Aug 07-13:22) thomcbell: prlb 1:1
(Aug 07-13:22) Threei: wtg
(Aug 07-13:22) Threei: persistence wins
(Aug 07-13:42) Threei: Long CAT .50 break
(Aug 07-13:43) Threei: If holds .45
(Aug 07-13:46) Threei: Change to .45 break, if holds .40
(Aug 07-13:47) nemo: should hold .25 if indexes hold
(Aug 07-13:48) Threei: don't want to make .40 new trigger but .35 will be of interest
(Aug 07-13:51) Threei: Long CAT .35 break
(Aug 07-13:51) Threei: if holds .30
Aug 07-13:53) Threei: should be almost there
(Aug 07-13:54) Threei: if stops at .25, let it drop under ,.20 for the next setup
(Aug 07-13:54) Threei: although feels like bottom is in
(Aug 07-13:59) Threei: colume comes in... this is it
(Aug 07-13:59) Threei: run kitty, run
(Aug 07-13:59) Threei: or crawl
(Aug 07-14:08) Threei: come on
(Aug 07-14:09) Threei: 2 cents to 1:1, you couldn't make it?
(Aug 07-14:14) Threei: half out
(Aug 07-14:14) Threei: 1:1
(Aug 07-14:15) Threei: don't remember working this hard for 10 cents
(Aug 07-14:15) nemo: August
(Aug 07-14:16) Threei: 1:2
(Aug 07-14:16) Threei: 1/4 more out
(Aug 07-14:18) Threei: come on CAT, after all these hysterics you owe us 1:3
(Aug 07-14:21) cc_9: Amgn, holy crap
(Aug 07-14:21) nemo: market
(Aug 07-14:23) Threei: wtf
(Aug 07-14:23) Threei: no news
(Aug 07-14:25) Threei: closed last 1/4 on a trail
(Aug 07-14:25) Threei: first real trade today, lol
(Aug 07-14:29) dino: sbgi l .19
(Aug 07-14:29) Threei: Short GLD .30 break
(Aug 07-14:30) Threei: if holds .35
(Aug 07-14:33) dino: out silc flat
(Aug 07-14:40) Threei: 1:1
(Aug 07-14:41) Threei: formely almost flat day quickly moves into nicely profitable territory
(Aug 07-14:44) dino: out sbgi .31, +.12
(Aug 07-14:50) robbers has joined.
(Aug 07-14:52) Threei: hey robbers... found us?
(Aug 07-14:52) robbers: Lol, knew how to find you was just getting other stuff done.
(Aug 07-14:52) dino: sbgi l .40
(Aug 07-14:53) Threei:  
(Aug 07-14:53) robbers: Well, that might have been half the reason.
(Aug 07-14:53) Threei: lol
(Aug 07-14:54) cc_9: Gmcr some good volume here for a reversal
(Aug 07-15:01) cc_9: Vxx nearling intraday lows on the last hour.
(Aug 07-15:04) dino: out sbgi .49, +.09
(Aug 07-15:09) thomcbell: ddd - hilarous
(Aug 07-15:11) cc_9: Spy squeezing , this was the play I was looking for all day.
(Aug 07-15:12) Threei: Short BBRY .20 break
(Aug 07-15:12) Threei: if holds .25
(Aug 07-15:19) dino: sbgi l .59
(Aug 07-15:27) Threei: Texas federal judge declares Bitcoin a currency, says Bitcoin investments fall under US securities law
(Aug 07-15:28) dino: surprised they ae allowing bitcoin to exist
(Aug 07-15:29) Threei: http://www.engadget.com/2013/08/07/texas-federal-judge--bitcoin-currency-falls-under-us-law/
(Aug 07-15:30) dino: thought only govt could create currency
(Aug 07-15:32) Threei: to me, bitcoin is stullborn idea
(Aug 07-15:32) Threei: still
(Aug 07-15:35) dino: it seems a money laundering thing, and tax dodge
(Aug 07-15:36) Threei: opens the doors to that, in any case
(Aug 07-15:40) Threei: ok guys, no time left for a play
(Aug 07-15:41) Threei: as tech support still hasn't found the root of the problem, keep this page bookmarked
(Aug 07-15:41) Threei: we may have to use it tomorrow
(Aug 07-15:41) Threei: have a good evening, see you tomorrow
(Aug 07-15:42) dino: cya
Aug 07-15:44) _goinshort: Thanks!
(Aug 07-15:47) Threei: yw guys
(Aug 07-15:48) _goinshort: got to travel for a few days - will join up upon return
(Aug 07-15:48) Threei: cool beans, we will be here
(Aug 07-15:48) Threei: or there
(Aug 07-15:49) Threei: as far as servers go, lol
(Aug 07-15:49) _goinshort: it happens
(Aug 07-15:49) dino: have fun
(Aug 07-15:49) Threei: rarely but it does
(Aug 07-15:49) Threei: we have spare solution ready
(Aug 07-15:49) Threei: so no harm done
(Aug 07-15:50) _goinshort: good backup
(Aug 07-15:50) Threei: yeah, lacks some functionality but...
(Aug 07-15:51) _goinshort: lookin at your package deals - pick one out this weekend - be back trading tuesday
(Aug 07-15:51) Threei: feel free to e-mail if got any questions
(Aug 07-15:51) _goinshort: will do

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

August-September 2013 Outlook: Summer’s End

TradeTheNews.com  August-September 2013 Outlook:  Summer’s End



The Goldilocks environment has persisted into the summer, with central banks further augmenting their dovish talk as tepid data showed the slightest improving trend, not too hot, not too cold. Markets saw a bit volatility in June as Treasury rates popped after some hand wringing about the Feds QE tapering plan, but the worries quickly subsided as the Fed and other central banks went to new lengths to demonstrate that they are still in control. A parade of Fed officials stressed that the end of QE would not constitute tightening and was not a prelude to rate hikes. The ECB took up the banner of accommodation by providing forward guidance for the first time ever, indicating that rates will be at current levels or lower for an extended period of time. Similarly the BOEs new chief has promised to throw his own forward guidance on the stimulus bon fire in August. The BOJ has already impacted markets with its fresh accommodative policy, and there is some speculation that the Chinese central bank could offer up some new stimulus if China's economic growth slips any further.
It is becoming clear that the global recovery will be a long, slow, and multi-speed one, which will make the eventual unwind of extraordinary monetary easing extremely complex and fraught with peril. But for at least another couple months, markets will likely continue to ignore the longer term issue of exit policy, and enjoy the modest improvement in the economy as it faces only some moderately sized potential pitfalls, mostly on the political front.

Finally, Europe Gets Some Sun

Europe is getting more attention as its economy appears to have stopped getting worse, thanks largely to central bank interventions. At its July meeting, the ECB initiated forward guidance for the first time to further leverage its verbal intervention. This, combined with the promise of the OMT program (which has been enacted but never actually used), is just about the last line of verbal defense from the ECB. If economic data starts to deteriorate again, the central bank may have to raise the prospect of negative deposit rates again, which Draghi has said they are technically ready to implement, though the policy could have serious unintended consequences. First, negative rates could further squeeze the lending margins of banks, particularly in the weakened peripheral nations. Second, it may be seen as the last tool available to the ECB, and just the perception that its bag of tricks is empty may be enough to cause some market jitters on the notion that the central bank has nothing left to give if another crisis hits. If more economic weakness forces the ECB to take the plunge into negative rates, analysts believe they would have to make it a significant move, cutting rates as much as one percentage point to give the policy enough oomph to be impactful.

As the ECB waded into providing forward guidance, the BOE also stepped in to say that it will delineate a rate path this month. The details of the forward guidance are set to be released alongside the August 7 Inflation Report, as newly minted BOE Governor Carney starts to put his stamp on monetary policy. In future meetings Carney could also move to increase the banks asset purchase program again, as his predecessor advocated.

There are emerging signs that the European economy has finally hit bottom. The latest EMU unemployment reading ticked slightly lower to 12.1%, the first decline in almost two-and-a-half years, and Euro Zone July PMI Manufacturing edged above 50, the first growth reading in 24 months. There are still deep problems in the peripheral countries for example, the IMF just downgraded its forecasts for Spains unemployment, predicting it will remain above 25% for the next five years but on the whole it seem that the euro zone has seen its worst days. With the light at the end of the tunnel starting to become visible, the EMU has to do its best to stay true to the path of greater integration, despite a bevy of political challenges across the zone.

The European political scene has still has many potential flash points that could refuel the Euro Zone crisis. In recent weeks Greece was shepherded through the necessary steps to get its next bailout tranche, but there are still some questions about a future funding gap, while in Portugal the government survived a tiff between coalition members over fiscal strategy. Spanish PM Rajoy is comfortable enough with the path to economic recovery to asset that the recession is being left behind and the danger of a bailout has gone, but continues to contend with the taint of a government slush fund scandal. Perhaps the most troubling situation is in Italy, where former PM Berlusconi is prodding his party to threaten to break up the fragile coalition government that took weeks to form after an inconclusive election in April. If President Napolitano refuses to grant Berlusconi a pardon from a one year sentence that was recently affirmed by the high court, the government could fall apart.

The biggest planned political event of the next few months will be the German federal elections on September 22. Chancellor Merkel has treaded through the minefield of the Euro Zone crisis with extreme caution in an effort to avoid the fate of many of her former peers: more than half of Euro Zone governments have been tossed out and replaced by the opposition during the last four years. Because of a collapse in support for its junior coalition partner (the FDP party), Merkels current coalition government does not have a clear edge in the polls over the opposition coalition. Merkel is, however, polling far ahead of Peer Steinbruck as the preferred Chancellor candidate, and seems likely to retain her post, though it may require forming a grand coalition with Steinbrucks center-left SPD party.

Elections in the heart of Europe have changed the course of Euro Zone policy already. For example, shortly after France elected a Socialist leader for the first time in nearly two decades, President Hollande redirected continental policy toward growth measures to counterbalance strict austerity programs that had been focus of the crisis recovery plan until then. Once the German election has been settled, Merkel will be free to exercise a more muscular agenda in Europe, including working on the structures and institutions that will build more Europe as she likes to say.

One hurdle to clear will be the German Constitutional court decision due out this fall on the legality of participation in the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European Central Bank's bond-buying program (OMT). Last September the court gave a preliminary verdict that participating in the ESM was permissible, though it insisted on the German Parliament retaining veto rights. The court has a track record of bowing to German government authority when it comes to issues of European policy, and in hearings this June the court president indicated that the ECB's conditionality on OMT could help draw the line between fiscal and monetary policy distinctly enough for it to be a good middle way.

Monsoon Season

Leaders in the Middle Kingdom are also looking for a middle way that would allow them to keep growth near target levels without significant new stimulus efforts as the economy has gotten soggy. To that end Chinese leaders have given a lot of lip service to the official economic forecast. Within the last month China Premier Li Keqiang has acknowledged that the official 7.5% GDP forecast may be vulnerable, but vowed that the government would not allow growth to fall below 7% this year, while Finance Minister Lou has stated that there will not be major fiscal stimulus this year, but only some fine tuning of policy. Indeed, in the early days of August the PBoC resumed reverse repo operations for the first time in six months, which the Chinese press deemed a form of mini stimulus aimed at stabilizing growth.

Recent data has given Chinese leaders some relief. The latest official non-manufacturing PMI put in its 17th straight month of expansion and the manufacturing PMI is still showing growth. Outside measures are not as favorable, however, as the July HSBC manufacturing reading hit an 11-month low, raising more questions about whether the official government data is wholly reliable.

The dampening Chinese economy is impacting trading partners, especially Australia, which has long benefited as supply line for the Chinese economic miracle. Even as Chinas demand for raw materials has subsided, Australia has also been sandbagged by foreign central bank policy that has led to a strengthening Aussie dollar, squeezing domestic profit margins and thus the tax base. This pressure may demand a response from the government and central banksome analysts are predicting the RBA may need to launch its own QE program and slash rates to near zero to avert a recession. The ailing economy may also lead directly to the ouster of PM Rudds Labor party in favor of the center-right opposition in the upcoming September 7th election.

Japans own upper house election, held last month, solidified Prime Minister Abes political powerbase, leading him to declare that Japan's will to change has returned, and that the revolving door of politics is over. He also used the occasion to give assurances to partners in other advanced economies that he will shift his focus to the third arrow, reform programs to achieve growth through stimulating private investment and boosting Japans economic competitiveness. Now that the PM has been given the political capital to move forward with the economic plan that bears his name, Abe must show the determination to enact deep reforms in the Japanese economic system, some which may be unpopular with his own party, including agricultural trade reforms sought for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). Already Abe is hedging on a planned consumption tax increase, saying the government will study the data in the next few months to determine if the proposal to double the consumption tax over the next two years will go ahead as planned.

The BOJ is still projecting confidence. Recently Governor Kuroda stated that the BOJ has taken enough measures to achieve its 2% inflation target and is ready to make policy adjustments as necessary. Last month the central bank also raised its economic assessment for the seventh straight time, the longest streak on record. Having done its part for Abenomics, the BOJ now needs to see its monetary measures supported by fiscal policy actions.

Bernanke's Last Summer

BOJ officials might be concerned by the American example, where fiscal policy inaction has substantially hampered the economic recovery. Congress has just started a month-long recess, but before members left Washington, they previewed the debt ceiling battle which is about to restart. With the sequestration taking a bite out of economic growth and economies in Europe and Asia still shaky, Washington has an opportunity to shore up fiscal policy with a new look at a grand bargain before the US fiscal year ends on September 30. But little has changed in D.C. politics since the last time leaders kicked the can on March 1 (when the sequester took effect), and a mild improvement in the economy has given them even less urgency to reach a deal.

Congressmen may also have lost some of the sense of urgency to deal with fiscal issues because there has been little consequence for their feckless behavior. On the 2-year anniversary of S&P cutting the US sovereign rating, most US stock indices are notching record highs, despite the ongoing political gridlock that was the main impetus for the ratings downgrade. In June, thanks largely to the sequesters indiscriminate budget cuts and the Feds growing stimulus, S&P brought its outlook back to stable from negative, and now predicts a 2013 debt ceiling deal will get done at the last minute. The other ratings agencies, Fitch and Moodys, still have their AAA ratings on a negative outlook, but dont seem to be in any hurry to test the reaction to a second US sovereign downgrade, which could either be shaken off like the first, or finally trigger the sea-change in fixed income markets that some expected after the S&P downgrade.

Despite the fiscal drag and gridlock in Washington, the US economy has worked its way toward modest growth, doing better than almost every other advanced economy. The housing market has gathered strength amid tight inventories of homes for sale, and home prices have appreciated, floating many homeowners who were underwater back to the surface, which in turn has helped buoy consumer confidence readings. Prospective home buyers will be watching mortgage rates closely, as any additional spurt higher in rates could cool off the market.

Despite the housing strength, economic growth remains lackluster in the US and the jobs market is still on a very slow ascent for the fourth year of a recovery. Average payroll additions are still lagging behind the 200 thousand or so needed to match new workers in the workforce each month, and unemployment has been ticking lower largely based on a declining workforce participation rate. Many of the new jobs that are being created are in lower wage brackets, leaving many people underemployed. There is growing evidence that the unemployment problem is now largely structural, which could make any additional stimulus efforts ineffective.

The Fed may be tacitly acknowledging this by gearing up for the end of QE3. Chairman Bernanke used the June meeting to link the reduction of QE to the Feds economic forecast, indicating tapering would start in the fall and conclude in mid-2014 when unemployment will be around 7%. Thus if the taper doesnt begin by December, it would strongly imply the Feds forecast had slipped again, creating some credibility problems for the central bank. It would also open the Fed up to more potential mistakes in messaging, possibly throwing out another lead balloon like the comments that evoked the June Taper Tantrum.

Therefore, along with the economic data, the FOMC calendar now plays into forecasting the potential for tapering QE. The next FOMC meeting, on September 18, includes a press conference that would allow Bernanke to explain in detail any decision to taper. If the data are still too languid to begin slowing QE in September, then the mid-December meeting would offer Bernanke his last opportunity to launch the taper at a regularly scheduled press conference. Otherwise the entire unwinding of extraordinary stimulus will be left up to Bernankes successor.

Speculation about succession at the Fed will likely become a growing distraction in the weeks ahead, as the Fed will have to devote more attention to giving assurances that the next Chairman will not rock the boat and can handle the implementation of the exit strategy. But as Mr. Bernanke noted himself, he is not the only person in the world who can manage the exit.

Vice-Chairman Janet Yellen may cement her frontrunner status for the top job at the Jackson Hole symposium in late August, where she is scheduled to moderate a panel especially if her remarks offer up additional policy guidance. Its expected that Yellen would follow Bernankes approach closely, and possibly be even more dovish than Helicopter Ben, which would please most stimulus-addicted Wall Street denizens, though some fear she might be slow to react if inflation reared its head. The other top candidate is former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers who is a friend of the White House but seen as somewhat abrasive for the collegial style of the FOMC and may be a more unsettling choice for market participants. Two other former Fed Vice-Chairs, Donald Kohn and Roger Ferguson, are seen as dark horse candidates who could get a second look if the intense press speculation and political lobbying around Yellen and Summers end up hurting their candidacies.

Into the Fall

While many of the pressing issues mentioned above will be discussed by leaders at the G20 summit in Russia on September 5-6, a change in the tenor of the global outlook may not become clear until October. By then, Germany will have settled its election (as will Australia), Japan will have let fly the third arrow of its recovery plan, the new US fiscal year will start with a debt deal or another frustrating kick-the-can extension, and we may even know the name of the next Fed Chairman (the last time around Bernanke was re-nominated by Obama in late August 2009).

Economic data across the globe could be better, but for the first time in four years theres a sense that things are improving or at least stabilizing in most regions. Europe has arrested its fall, though its political tests will continue, and if the euro creeps back towards 1.35, the ECB may reintroduce negative rate-talk. In Japan, PM Abe now has full control of the government and now must put up or shut up, with the knowledge that the uncomfortably rapid rise in the 10-year JGB interest rate in mid-May could be only a small taste of whats to come if the government loses control of its experimental recovery plan. China has to prove its capable of hitting its economic growth target, even as it carps about losing its edge due to Yuan appreciation. While in the US, the next test for markets will be how treasury rates react to the impending curtailment of QE3, and how much of that is already factored in. Historically August and September have been two of the worst months for stocks over the last thirty years, but money keeps flowing into equities, and analysts keep ratcheting up their targets (Piper just raised forecasts for the S&P500 to reach 1,850 by year end and 2,000 next year).

Central banks have created a period of stability with a vast cushion of monetary largesse to support the global economy. But four years into the recovery process, if the data dont start showing a more summery aspect, markets could lose some confidence, and fall into the fall.


CALENDAR

AUGUST
5: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
6: US Trade Balance; Japan Prelim GDP
7: BOE Inflation Report; German Trade Balance and Industrial Production; China CPI/PPI
8: China Industrial Production; China New Loans; Japan Current Account; BOJ policy statement
9: China Trade Balance

13: US Retail Sales; UK CPI
14: German, French, Italian prelim GDP; German ZEW; US PPI
15: UK Retail Sales; US CPI; Philly Fed Index
16: US Housing Starts and Building Permits; Prelim University of Michigan Sentiment

19: Japan Trade Balance
21: US Existing Home Sales; FOMC Minutes
22: German Ifo Business Sentiment; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
23: German and French PMI readings; UK GDP 2nd reading; US New Home Sales
24: G20 ministerial meetings

26: US Durable Goods Orders
27: US Consumer Confidence
28: US Pending Home Sales; Fed Jackson Hole Symposium begins
29: US Prelim GDP
30: Euro Zone Unemployment; US Chicago PMI
31: China Manufacturing PMI

SEPTEMBER
1: China final HSBC Manufacturing PMI
2: US ISM Manufacturing PMI; China Non-Manufacturing PMI
4: US Trade Balance; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
5: ECB and BOE policy statements; Japan final GDP; G20 Leaders in St. Petersburg (Sept 5-6)
6: US Unemployment and Payrolls; tentative release date for US Treasury currency report
7: China CPI/PPI; Australia Parliamentary election

8: China Industrial Production; China New Loans
9: German Industrial Production; BOJ policy statement; Japan Current Account
10: China Trade Balance
13: US Retail Sales; US PPI; Prelim U of M Consumer Confidence

16: US Industrial Production
17: US CPI
18: German ZEW; BOE Inflation Letter; US Housing Starts and Building Permits; FOMC policy statement and Press Conference
19: US Existing Home Sales; Philly Fed Index; Japan Trade Balance

22: German federal election
23: German Ifo Business Sentiment; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
24: European Flash Manufacturing PMI readings; US Consumer Confidence
25: US Durable Goods Orders; US New Home Sales
26: UK final GDP; US final GDP; US Pending Home Sales; Japan Industrial Production
27: U of M final Consumer Sentiment

30: US Chicago PMI; China Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC final Manufacturing PMI; End of US Government FY13






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