Oct 07 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

With SVM reaching over 1:1, just as yesterday's update said it's time to partial out. Profits should be protected - especially in this market changes its mood in a blink of eye. With +$1.45 pocketed and stop moved within 30 cents of original entry, it's already a winning trade, whatever happens next. Congratulations to those who followed.


Other than that, great end to a great week, with one nice win after another.


Session Time: Fri Oct 07 00:00:00 2011
[08:41] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 9.1% V 9.1%E
[08:41] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: 103K V 55KE; CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS: 137K V 90KE
[08:41] {Threei}  huh?
[08:41] {nemo} yeah, huge gap up, might as well go back to bed
[08:42] {nemo} spy likely get hung up around 118.30
[08:42] {Threei}  how these numbers can be right?
[08:42] {Threei}  totally out of line with all others
[08:43] {nemo} verizon workers came back from strike...subtract 53 k workers
[08:51] {Threei}  rofl
[08:51] {Threei}  "Happy anniversary to President Obama and the first lady. They had a nice private dinner to celebrate the 19th anniversary of the last time someone said 'yes' to an Obama proposal." -- Craig Ferguson
[08:57] {Threei}  OK, I see this was not a joke
[08:57] {Threei}  about jobs I mean
[08:57] {swill} lol
[08:57] {Threei}  verizon strike end is really referred as the reason
[08:57] {Threei}  so, how is this market reaction is not a joke?
[08:58] {swill} oh
[08:58] {Threei}  this is siuch an improvement to unemployemtn situation? ridiculous
[09:00] {z} that's what i was wondering vad...why are people so giddy that most of the increase was from a return from a strike
[09:00] {z} ridiculous
[09:00] {Threei}  I guess either not many realize that
[09:00] {Threei}  or people are so eager for any good news, they settle for anything
[09:15] {swill} how would the taiost view this as part of the whole effecting the market
[09:15] {Threei}  let's ask a taoist
[09:15] {swill} do yoou know one
06[09:15] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a large copy of leather-bound Tao Te Ching
[09:16] {swill} lol
[09:16] {Threei}  yes
[09:16] {RonS} gm...forrest gump...
[09:16] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:16] {swill} lol
[09:17] {thomcbell} that is my line the leather binding
[09:18] {thomcbell} Vad i did bind in leather FYI
[09:18] {thomcbell} reads pure that way
[09:18] {Threei}  seriously?
[09:19] {thomcbell} yes - print and bind at staples - it, however, is not aged, brown and tattered as it should be
[09:19] {swill} what a great idea
[09:20] {Threei}  well... nothing a little fire, acid and crayons couldn't do
[09:25] {Threei}  looking at SPY daily, I can envision pullback from here clearly
[09:25] {Threei}  but this kind of days tends to be against our approach
[09:25] {Threei}  will try to be as conservative as possible
[09:25] {Threei}  don't want a bad end to a great week
[09:29] {Threei}  hmmm
[09:29] {Threei}  fire in ese school
[09:29] {Threei}  I hope he didn't stage it so he can trade
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .40 break half lot
[09:31] {Threei}  oops
[09:31] {Threei}  late
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break half lot
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .70 break
[09:34] {Threei}  half lot
[09:35] {Threei}  .55 stop
[09:36] {Threei}  nope
[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .80 break
[09:39] {Threei}  1:1
[09:39] {z} stopped out .92
[09:40] {Threei}  .95 the high??
[09:40] {z} can u put the stop up if possible vad?
[09:40] {Threei}  don't I in 99.999%
[09:40] {Threei}  1:2
[09:41] {Threei}  1:3
[09:41] {swill} oby whan has taught you well
[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break
[09:42] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  35 break
[09:45] {Threei}  stop under .90
[09:46] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:49] {Threei}  1:1
[09:51] {Threei}  second half is rinsed out
[09:51] {Threei}  not daring to hang on
[09:54] {Threei}  ah well
[09:56] {Threei}  as I said...
[09:58] {nemo} ahhh forgot...jews not trading today
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  42 break
[10:01] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:02] {Threei}  too bad, was forming nice double bottom
[10:06] {patience} good morning
[10:06] {Threei}  morning patience
[10:06] {Threei}  heard from ese this week at all?
[10:06] {Threei}  I wonder about explosion in his school... thought he rigged it to be free to trade
[10:06] {Threei}  but he still isn't here :)
[10:06] {patience} no
[10:15] {Threei}  LVS got away but I couldn't see any safe entry
[10:15] {patience} in gdx
[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  24 break
[10:25] {Threei}  1:1
[10:35] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[10:35] {Threei}  stop above .60
[10:35] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:41] {Threei}  1:1
[10:41] {Threei}  1:2
[10:56] {RonS} gj 3i...held out for +.30  thanks
[10:57] {Threei}  :)
[11:11] {Threei}  http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-france-ketchup-20111006,0,1095831.story
[11:23] {Threei}  SVM swing trade update http://stks.co/XKD
[11:57] {Threei}  09:25] {Threei} looking at SPY daily, I can envision pullback from here clearly
[11:57] {Threei}  spot on
[11:59] {Threei}  White House reiterates that they are not expecting a double dip recession
[12:04] {Threei}  Italy downgrade by Fitch
[12:15] {Threei}  *(SP) FITCH DOWNGRADES SPAIN TO AA-
[12:16] {Threei}  Fitch is on a rol today
[12:29] {Threei}  (GE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: For Germany, the Euro acts as an 'elixir of life'; Germany must stand by the Euro- Reiterates opposition to Euro bonds; highlights that Greece's acceptance to the Eurozone was not initially compatible with the stability treaty
[12:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
[12:56] {Threei}  half lot
[12:56] {Threei}  stop under .50
[12:57] {Threei}  target 48.20 - .40
[12:58] {Threei}  1:1
[12:58] {Threei}  am I good or what
[12:59] {Threei}  1:2
[13:00] {Threei}  don't rush to pat me on the back all at once
[13:01] {z} nice call vad
[13:01] {Threei}  ty
[13:02] {thomcbell} it was good -
[13:03] {Threei}  glad to have a good day at the end of the good week
[13:04] {thomcbell} He does not pride himself, and is therefore the chief among men
[13:04] {Threei}  :)
[13:24] {z} anything in particular on the radar here vad?
[13:25] {Threei}  not really
[13:25] {Threei}  market went a bit jellyfishy here
[13:25] {Threei}  waiting for something to shape up or for my brain to unplug completely for the weekend, whichever happens first
[13:26] {Threei}  that of course assumes it was plugged to begin with
[13:26] {Threei}  which is not a foregone conclusion
[13:26] {nemo} spy at daily pivot, bounced off of weekly pivot
[13:26] {z} we shall only hope
[13:26] {nemo} hope?
[13:26] {Threei}  nah... I function better whenin coma
[13:26] {z} h o p e
[13:26] {z} yes
[13:27] {z} vad do you watch particular price channels on rimm or just pure technical setups?
[13:28] {z} or price points per se...
[13:28] {Threei}  setups
[13:28] {Threei}  chart formations
[13:29] {Threei}  nemo's methodology adds certain price points
[13:29] {Threei}  I suspect combination of both is especially powerful
[13:30] {z} yea for sure
[13:31] {nemo} here's a good one, remember yesterday morning's TNA play, when you saw the long and I said look for it to bounce when spy hit a price?
[13:31] {nemo} well, it hit that price again at 1:10 and bounced
[13:32] {nemo} mea culpa I'm incapacitated
[13:32] {z} lol
[13:33] {Threei}  sometimes happens the same when larisa who uses something deeply technical tells me after some of my calls:
[13:33] {z} anyway vad, noticed u trade a lot of breaks of .X0 or .X5
[13:34] {Threei}  how on earth have you gotten that entry without using anything but perice/vlume? It's exact entry my indicators called
[13:34] {nemo} hehehehe
[13:34] {nemo} funny you should say that
[13:36] {nemo} I was sitting back so my eyes wouldn't bleed on the desk earlier, and I use a volume@price indicator, which tells me how much was on the bid and how much on the ask at a given price when we got to the high around 117.20 everything was on the offer
[13:36] {Threei}  wait
[13:36] {Threei}  you mean bids/asks sizes,
[13:37] {Threei}  or ytou mean prints at those?
[13:37] {Threei}  at those prices
[13:37] {Threei}  in other words,
[13:37] {nemo} price and volume
[13:37] {Threei}  "everything was on the offer" refers to offers or to prints at the offer price?
[13:37] {nemo} yes
[13:37] {Threei}  lol
[13:37] {Threei}  what yes
[13:37] {z} ok vad, i need some guidance here....when u get a chance...
[13:37] {Threei}  one or another?
[13:38] {nemo} FSC has a horizontal price bar that gives the volume in the length of the bar and the proportionate distribution of bids and offers
[13:38] {Threei}  I don't know how that tool works
[13:38] {nemo} I saw nothing but offer and thought,  "MMmmmmmh down elevator starting"
[13:38] {Threei}  look at SVM level 2 please
[13:38] {nemo} who me
[13:38] {Threei}  bids at .8.38
[13:38] {Threei}  yes
[13:38] {Threei}  offers at 8.39
[13:39] {Threei}  sorry
[13:39] {nemo} fsc can't get it before market hours
[13:39] {Threei}  8.46 bid
[13:39] {Threei}  8.47 offer
[13:39] {nemo} what time
[13:39] {Threei}  tright now
[13:39] {Threei}  and print at .47
[13:39] {Threei}  so what is it you refer to
[13:40] {Threei}  when say "everything was on the offer"
[13:40] {Threei}  sizes of offers at the ask price?
[13:40] {Threei}  or prints at the ask price?
[13:40] {nemo} I'll email a screen shot
[13:40] {Threei}  it won't help me
[13:40] {Threei}  I don't know hat that tool indicates
[13:40] {Threei}  there are bids, there are offers, there are prints
[13:41] {Threei}  I don't underdtand what that phrase refers to
[13:41] {nemo} well, when we know there are an abundance of green prints we know there is heavy selling
[13:41] {Threei}  huh?
[13:41] {nemo} if the price doesn't get through that level, we have resistance
[13:42] {Threei}  I am lost
[13:42] {Threei}  green prints are prints at the offer
[13:42] {nemo} red=buying on the bids
[13:42] {Threei}  if anything, it's heavy buying
[13:42] {Threei}  red - print at the bid size
[13:42] {nemo} or it's supply coming into the market
[13:42] {Threei}  OK... there is a lot of confusion here
[13:42] {nemo} and is it smart money buying, or smart money selling
[13:43] {Threei}  there are some commonly adopted definitions
[13:43] {Threei}  let's operate within them to avoid confusion
[13:43] {Threei}  any print is both buy and sell,
[13:43] {nemo} green=transactions on the offer
[13:43] {Threei}  so to make it generally idetified, common definition is:
[13:43] {nemo} red=transactions on the bid
[13:44] {nemo} so far so good
[13:44] {nemo} ?
[13:44] {Threei}  print at the offer is buy
[13:44] {Threei}  print at the bid is sell
[13:44] {Threei}  yes
[13:44] {thomcbell} A down thru the pivot
[13:44] {thomcbell} on spy
[13:44] {nemo} or at least a meeting of the minds at that price at that moment yes?
[13:45] {thomcbell} could get interesting - 3 day trailing pivot 112.05
[14:05] {nemo} heavy volume iwm
[14:06] {nemo} it breaks this level and spy goes tna long
[14:06] {nemo} spy not breaking .80
[14:43] {z} anyone got big weekend plans?
[14:43] {Threei}  yes
[14:43] {Threei}  doing nothing on a very very large scale
[14:43] {z} so taking it easy...
[14:43] {Threei}  well, last weekend was very eventful
[14:44] {z} yea slinging hammers and nails at your audience;)
[14:44] {z} lol :)
[14:44] {Threei}  yup :)
[14:44] {Threei}  so aside of having a dinner to attend on Sun evening, this one is for light walking at the lake
[14:44] {Threei}  or ocean shore
[14:44] {Threei}  or forest
[14:45] {Threei}  or all three
[14:45] {Threei}  but no mountain climbing
[14:45] {z} sounds pretty nice.
[14:45] {Threei}  advantage of Victoria...
[14:45] {z} beats my area...burnt up..
[14:45] {Threei}  you've got all that within 20 min driving
[14:45] {z} by the heat
[14:46] {RonS} z...in texas?
[14:47] {z} yes, just north of austin.
[14:47] {RonS} hmmm, drought down there too?...that area the only part of texas i like...
[14:48] {z} yes horrible drought.  farmer's almanac calls it a 100 yr. drought
[14:48] {z} but i think there was a similar one n the 50's
[14:48] {z} lol
[14:49] {z} so that kind of invalidates that theory
[14:49] {nemo} God's wrath...
[14:49] {z} we had 90 some odd days so far this year 100+ temperature
[14:50] {z} probably so nemo.
[14:50] {z} either that or al gore's global warming ;)
[14:50] {nemo} 2012
[14:52] {z} i have some crop circles in my backyard 8D
[14:53] {nemo} wear a tinfoil hat, do ya'?
[14:55] {z} ?
[14:55] {Threei}  oops... I forgot mine... that's why I hear voices whispering "buy ESLR" in my ear all day?
[14:56] {nemo} rotfl
[15:19] {Threei}  no feel for market at all
[15:20] {Threei}  I have an idea... let's relax for the weekend
[15:20] {z} probably a good spot to call it quits for the week :)
[15:20] {Threei}  yeah, great week
[15:20] {z} good job
[15:20] {z} thx 3
[15:20] {Threei}  next on will be right another the corner
[15:20] {Threei}  thank you asll
[15:20] {Threei}  have a great weekend
[15:20] {RonS} see you all monday
[15:20] {Threei}  see you on Monday
[15:20] {z} same cya all monday

Oct 06 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

After first morning convulsions were over, we had a perfect day with trade after trade working like charm and no single stop. Enjoy the log.


SVM swing trade deserves an update here. Chart as of today, with annotations reminding the setup that originated our trade:

SVM made a new high today. Pullback bottomed out making a higher low, and since we proceeded to a higher high, it's time to trail the stop. Mine at this point is moved just under $7, minimizing risk to  negligible. Please notice that in just 10-15 cents (7.15 or so) we are going to hit 1:1 risk/reward which is were we normally start partialing out to protect profits.



Session Time: Thu Oct 06 00:00:00 2011
[08:30] {Threei}  bad jobless claims
[08:30] {Threei}  (US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 401K V 410KE;
[08:32] {nemo} mhhhhh...no reaction...down elevator coming
[08:53] {Threei}  good call
[08:54] {nemo} not as dumb as I look
[09:01] {nemo} free stock charts is starting to mess with us free-loaders
[09:02] {Threei}  ?
[09:02] {Threei}  wqqhat do they do?
[09:02] {nemo} on the right hand margin they have ads to help pay for the free service
[09:02] {Threei}  well...
[09:02] {nemo} Well, they are starting to vary the width of that margin as the ads change, so they're also changing the width of your chart
[09:03] {nemo} during realtime, it's annoying
[09:03] {Threei}  sure... the idea is to annoy you into paying :)
[09:03] {nemo} of course
[09:05] {nemo} oh god, this might be the 2nd flat open in a week...I don't know what to do with myself
[09:05] {Threei}  hehe
[09:15] {Threei}  nemo... -.65 SPY, you breathing easier?
[09:17] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Weidmann: Bundesbank position is well known, Euro zone must address the root causes of the problems it is experiencing as quickly as possible
[09:17] {Threei}  this is very ironic - root cause of their problem is EU itself
[09:17] {Threei}  address it is to dissolve EU
[09:19] {larisa} gm :)
[09:19] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:19] {larisa} vad :)
[09:23] {Threei}  targeting opening shorts
[09:23] {Threei}  SLW and FCX
[09:23] {Threei}  just hope they'll give a range to short
[09:23] {Threei}  instead of sharp move with no signsal
[09:31] {Threei}  half lot
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 breeak
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:32] {Threei}  FCX too late
[09:32] {z} no way to catch that
[09:32] {Threei}  no
[09:32] {nemo} slw
[09:32] {z} would have been nice :)
[09:32] {Threei}  SLW was possible though
[09:32] {Threei}  and 1:1
[09:32] {nemo} no, went from one to the other
[09:33] {Threei}  FCX
[09:33] {Threei}  watching for another setup
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  35 breeak
[09:35] {Threei}  no go
[09:36] {Threei}  rinse
[09:39] {nemo} is the market trading?
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .40 break
[09:40] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:40] {nemo} looks like fcx
[09:40] {Threei}  FCX jumps are incredible this morning
[09:40] {Threei}  good thing we kept it to half lot
[09:40] {Threei}  LVS again
[09:40] {Threei}  same setup
[09:40] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:42] {Threei}  stop to .51
[09:42] {Threei}  should have just covered near .30
[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break half lot
[09:47] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[09:47] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:47] {Threei}  sheesh, FCX
[09:48] {Threei}  what the deuce
[09:52] {nemo} tna here or if spy hits .60
[09:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .80 break half lot
[09:53] {Threei}  stop undr .70
[09:53] {Threei}  1:1
[09:53] {nemo} pivot point bounce for both
[09:54] {Threei}  1:2
[09:54] {Threei}  1:3, out
[09:54] {nemo} hehehehehe
[09:55] {swill} at a boy
[09:56] {Threei}  ty
[09:56] {swill} ty
[09:56] {Threei}  still can't believe the show FCX put on this morning
[09:56] {Threei}  look at those candles
[09:57] {Threei}  for anyone not careful enough to play small shares those are more like suppositories
[09:57] {Threei}  OK, double bottom maybe coming here
[09:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .25 break half lot
[09:57] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[09:58] {Threei}  see the setup?
[09:58] {Threei}  very clear visual
[09:58] {nemo} yeah
[09:58] {swill} lol
[09:58] {Threei}  1:1
[09:58] {nemo} tna again
[09:58] {Threei}  stop to .19
[09:59] {Threei}  1:2
[10:00] {Threei}  guess who is coming on TV
[10:00] {Threei}  long time no see
[10:00] {Threei}  good set of questions too
[10:00] {RonS} b'ozo?
[10:00] {Threei}  solyndra, fast and furious and latest job numbers
[10:01] {Threei}  I am sure he can't wait to take the podium
[10:01] {RonS} couldn't wait until friday for "real" numbers?
[10:02] {Threei}  well, everyone pretty much knows what those are going to be...
[10:02] {RonS} did ya hear there is a provision in the jobs bill that if someone is unemployed and gets and interview and is not hired, they can sue?
[10:02] {Threei}  no... you are kidding
[10:02] {RonS} a real job creator...noone will interview anyone unemployed...
[10:03] {Threei}  oh, I get it
[10:03] {Threei}  this is a bill to create jobs for lawyers!
[10:03] {pragmatic} :)
[10:03] {RonS} ...always is...
[10:03] {Threei}  just imagine
[10:03] {Threei}  everyone becomes a lwayer
[10:03] {Threei}  a lot of jobs
[10:03] {Threei}  suits are everywhere
[10:03] {Threei}  in both meanings
[10:04] {Threei}  ok, life became easier with these two trades
[10:04] {Threei}  let's see if we can get ahead now
[10:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .10 break half lot
[10:05] {Threei}  if stays above .95
[10:05] {nemo} I took the double bottoms
[10:05] {Threei}  target .45
[10:06] {Threei}  1:2
[10:06] {Threei}  nice spike for us
[10:07] {Threei}  target hit
[10:07] {Threei}  me out, and day became green
[10:07] {nemo} spy at vwap
[10:12] {Threei}  wow
[10:13] {Threei}  (US) Senators McCain (R-AZ) and Senator Hagan (D-NC) hold conference on foreign profit repatriation: Sees 1 year tax rate at 5.25-8.75%-
[10:13] {Threei}  Bill designed to bring back $1T in corporate profits back to the US and provide immediate jobs boost; carries penalties on firms that cut jobs
[10:13] {Threei}  - Tax rate is dependent on hiring
[10:14] {Threei}  don't know the details of course, and the evil is often in those - but this sounds way more sensible to me thatn president's "jobs bill"
[10:16] {Threei}  or am I missing something?
[10:17] {Threei}  don't answer all at once
[10:17] {swill} you didnt miss tna
[10:17] {Threei}  lol
[10:18] {Threei}  FCX, pullback to about .40 and I'll be interested in long
[10:18] {Threei}  meanwhile, two questions
[10:18] {RonS} hiring is dependent upon growth outlook and cost to employ...currently the first poor and second vastly more expensive due to health care bill
[10:18] {Threei}  first, anyone has any of mobile devices?
[10:19] {RonS} garage door opener
[10:19] {z} yep
[10:19] {Threei}  lol
[10:19] {Threei}  z, could you please have a look at http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com from it,
[10:20] {Threei}  and see if there is a button for a viewing on a mobile device, allowing uncluttered view
[10:20] {Threei}  it's configured to have one, but it appears onky when you use one of those
[10:20] {z} yea sure
[10:20] {Threei}  and I don't have any
[10:20] {Threei}  aside of the one Ron has
[10:22] {z} yep works fine vad
[10:22] {z} on android device
[10:23] {Threei}  cool, ty, can you tell me where the button is located?
[10:23] {RonS} hmm...eur up 1.3 cent off low and challenging the overnight high
[10:23] {z} i didn't have to push any button just pulled it right up...there was a button that said view web version
[10:23] {Threei}  got it, thanks
[10:24] {Threei}  anoter question, for those who read Taoist Trader
[10:24] {Threei}  I got a few requests, and created this as a result of those:
[10:25] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/routines.html
[10:25] {Threei}  look at it, tell me if it makes sense in your view
[10:25] {Threei}  I am skeptical, but quite a few asked for this
[10:35] {RonS} so, i am supposing that to see the routine pdf you need to cough the $47?  the outline of the philosophy is spot on.  the problem is that regardless what you provide "practical" americans find it difficult to embrace eastern philosophy so they will ask for exactly what to do
[10:35] {RonS} Jesse Livermore:  "the public always wants to be told what to do"
[10:36] {thomcbell} weekly pivot on spy here correct?
[10:36] {Threei}  so that's what they ask for
[10:36] {thomcbell} 115.27
[10:36] {Threei}  it's not a pdf that is included with main course
[10:36] {Threei}  it's a page-turning gadget, same as main text, plus what's listed in points 2 and 3
[10:37] {Threei}  they want this part only, so my approach is - here it is, but I'd prefer you to read the whole thing still,
[10:38] {Threei}  so this one is going to be refunded to you if upon reading it you decide to get it
[10:38] {RonS} guess my point is that w/o seeing it cannot comment...am supposing i know what is there
[10:39] {Threei}  you do, since you have main course, and if read TTR
[10:40] {RonS} oh, ok...never went back after i read it...will do it tonight
[10:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[10:43] {Threei}  half lot
[10:43] {Threei}  if holding above .35
[10:45] {Threei}  1:1
[10:45] {Threei}  hey, I may be getting down this trading thingy
[10:47] {swill} fish in a barrel, right
[10:47] {Threei}  at least after morning wild swings ended
[10:48] {Threei}  that was abnormalk even for the volatility conditions we experience lately
[10:51] {Threei}  TZA was worth another shot
[10:52] {Threei}  wasn't confident enough
[10:52] {nemo} you want to be careful between spy .50-.68
[11:10] {swill} lvs jb?
[11:11] {Threei}  pretty muhc, 42 break
[11:11] {Threei}  chart is right,
[11:11] {Threei}  time of the day - not so sure
[11:11] {Threei}  but I'll go for it
[11:11] {Threei}  chart looks too lucrative
[11:21] {Threei}  invalidated of course
[11:24] {swill} the cheque is in the mail
[11:30] {Threei}  SVM hit new high today since our entry at $7.25, based on double bottom pattern. Considering pullback over last few days that bottomed out with higher low and new high today, I believe it's time to trail the stop after today's close. Will do a chart update then
[11:36] {Threei}  LVS is trying to reestablish setup
[11:38] {swill} I wondered if if needed narrow consolidation?
[11:39] {Threei}  certainly
[11:39] {Threei}  need it to consolidate between .90 and 41
[11:39] {Threei}  42
[11:40] {swill} I see
[11:56] {Threei}  I think iot fizzled
[11:56] {Threei}  too far from resistance level now
[12:52] {patience} good morning
[12:53] {Threei}  not in NY time
[12:53] {Threei}  but good anyway
[12:54] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[12:59] {Threei}  1;1 reached
[12:59] {Threei}  in onw sharp candle
[13:09] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Finance Minister denies any delay in bond swap deal
[13:09] {Threei}  cool, now that it's officially denied we know it's truew
[13:31] {Threei}  hmmm
[13:31] {Threei}  why didn't we go for second LVS short
[13:41] {Threei}  anyone still here?
[13:41] {patience} y
[13:42] {nemo} let me check my pulse
[13:42] {nemo} mmmhhhh.....
[13:42] {nemo} oh oh
[13:42] {Threei}  none observed?
[13:42] {nemo} yeah...I have issues
[13:42] {z} vad how does rimm look as short in this area?
[13:43] {z} or nemo...
[13:43] {nemo} no, bouncing of vwap at .00
[13:43] {Threei}  no setup here... a bit earlier, .20 break was a good one
[13:44] {Threei}  13:34, see it?
[13:44] {nemo} look to short somewhere around .12-.18 if market weakens too
[13:44] {z} if breaks 24?
[13:44] {z} ok
[13:44] {nemo} market starting to look long, bouncing of weekly pivot here
[13:53] {Threei}  have a look at FCX
[13:53] {Threei}  see clean support at .40 to break for a short trigger?
[13:53] {nemo} Z have a look at RIMM ;)
[13:53] {Threei}  .60 is invalidation, but worth keeping eye on
[13:54] {z} yea will wait until it gets to .50s
[13:54] {Threei}  what do you know... nemo does have a pulse after all
[13:54] {nemo} frankly, that might be abull flag on rimm
[13:55] {nemo} nahhh....shoved an extension cord up my ass and plugged it in
[13:55] {nemo} oops....sorry
[13:55] {Threei}  I am so not editing this
[13:55] {nemo} ROTFL
[13:56] {Threei}  let everyone know who our electrical grid works for
[13:56] {z} more than we need to know about your free time nemo lol
[13:56] {nemo} free time?
[13:56] {nemo} yeah right
[13:56] {Threei}  z... this is nemo at his busiest {GG}
[13:57] {nemo} studying for that frickin 56....and let's not forget bunny is HIGH MAINTENANCE
[13:57] {Threei}  bunnies often are... just ask heffner
[13:59] {nemo} yeah, she hasn't asked me for implants yet
[13:59] {RonS} no teeth implants?
[14:00] {nemo} she doesn't need those...oy frickin'vay
[14:03] {z} vad .20 break to short rimm if holding .35?
[14:04] {Threei}  nah
[14:04] {Threei}  need cnsolidation
[14:04] {Threei}  not just quick drop into suppoty
[14:04] {Threei}  support
[14:10] {RonS} see everyone in the a.m., have a good afternoon and evening...
[14:10] {swill} have a good one
[14:10] {Threei}  take care ron
[14:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .20 break
[14:22] {nemo} if this goes I'd ride it...spy above .25 likel going to .75 area
[14:25] {Threei}  half out
[14:25] {Threei}  gotta respect volatility
[14:25] {nemo} yeah, I'm looking at levels though
[14:25] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[14:26] {Threei}  and last piece to ride
[14:26] {Threei}  stop to b/e
[14:26] {Threei}  letting it be
[14:26] {nemo} if you see another setup rebuy
[14:29] {Threei}  ever since first mornng convulsions, the day is as perfect as it gets
[14:33] {swill} yes indeed, convulsive.  I'm in the green
[14:34] {Threei}  :)
[14:51] {swill} Vad you asked yesterday.  Are we going to have a sell off or  buying at days end. What about today?  I have no idea.
[14:51] {Threei}  neither do I
[14:51] {swill} lol
[14:52] {Threei}  I feel selloff is in cards but I feel it all the time, lol
[14:52] {Threei}  having as perfect day as we did so far, I am not really inclined to risk much now
[14:52] {Threei}  if something very lucrative comes along, sure
[14:52] {Threei}  but so-so setups, nah
[14:53] {swill} Gotch ya
[14:55] {swill} slw db?  Or so so
[14:57] {Threei}  ummm
[14:57] {Threei}  can't tell really
[14:58] {Threei}  31 break is tempting
[14:58] {Threei}  but guts tell me it'll fail
[15:00] {swill} I'll keep an eye for narrowing perhaps
[15:01] {swill} what do I know
[15:11] {Threei}  well, gut was wrong
[15:13] {swill} mine too.  I've been wondering if the market feels a little hopfull
[15:15] {swill} or is that me
[15:15] {Threei}  dunno... I don't think in such terms
[15:16] {Threei}  to me, it's just a technical bounce within descending channel
[15:16] {Threei}  part of bear market
[15:16] {Threei}  volume drops as market climbs
[15:17] {Threei}  doesn't feel bullish to em
[15:18] {swill} I see.  I wish the free charts had voume
[15:18] {Threei}  they don't?
[15:18] {Threei}  they do I believe
[15:18] {Threei}  nemo?
[15:27] {swill} tza cup
[15:41] {nemo} hi, sorry...FSC has volume, but it's algo derived in realtime...I go by LASER volume intraday
[15:41] {swill} thanks
[15:51] {Threei}  OK guys, let's have a good evening
[15:51] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:51] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:51] {larisa} bye :)
[15:51] {patience} thanks vad
[15:51] {Threei}  go SVM
[15:52] {swill} thank you

Multi-time Frame midweek review.

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

A video for you...

Oct 05 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Very nice day with quite a few winning trades. Boring second half of the day but what else is new on the slow climb days.


Session Time: Wed Oct 05 00:00:00 2011
[08:55] {Threei}  contagion may have already started as Dexia could inject the virus of debt crisis to the core European members.
[08:55] {Threei}  Three months after the bank was given a healthy clean bill from the European stress tests, it was announced that Dexia would be restructured.
[08:56] {Threei}  tells you a lot about how useful and truthfuil those tests are
[08:56] {z} gm 3i, nemo, pragmatic :)
[08:56] {Threei}  z :)
[09:10] {nemo} zed
[09:16] {Threei}  Read this and tell me, am I wrong comparing this market to a junkie longing for another bailout fix?
[09:17] {Threei}  - Risk appetite improved dramatically over the last 24 hours aided by commentary from Fed Chairman Bernanke that QE remained on the table and a vague report that the Euro Zone was considering options to prevent a banking crisis.
[09:17] {z} seriously that's a good analogy
[09:17] {z} 3i
[09:18] {Threei}  I am master of good analogies... you should see my Whistler audience gasping as I raised my hands - hammer in one, big nail in another
[09:18] {Threei}  all to illustrate the point about technical analysis being just a tool not working by itself, just as hammer wiouldn;'t drive the nail in the table until I started using it
[09:24] {Threei}  shaky opening
[09:24] {Threei}  unsure market
[09:24] {Threei}  dancing around flat
[09:24] {Threei}  a little green, a little red... let's observe first minutes
[09:31] {Threei}  FCX, impressive red candole
[09:31] {Threei}  let's try to short the big green one
[09:31] {nemo} is that a candle or canole?
[09:31] {Threei}  between .80 and .90
[09:31] {Threei}  needless to say, half lot
[09:32] {Threei}  in
[09:32] {Threei}  .79
[09:32] {Threei}  stop above .90
[09:32] {Threei}  no go
[09:33] {pragmatic} did you call FCX ?
[09:33] {pragmatic} what was the entry ?
[09:33] {Threei}  ?
[09:33] {Threei}  look up
[09:33] {pragmatic} did you stop using colors ?
[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
[09:34] {nemo} it's an open call pragmtic, gotta' pay attention
[09:34] {Threei}  .35 stop
[09:35] {Threei}  target 31.80 or so
[09:35] {nemo} volatility
[09:35] {Threei}  nope, out
[09:36] {Threei}  riunse?
[09:36] {Threei}  yeah
[09:37] {pragmatic} crazy FCX
[09:37] {Threei}  target
[09:37] {Threei}  and more
[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .40 break
[09:39] {Threei}  if stays above .30
[09:39] {Threei}  1:1
[09:42] {Threei}  31% have confidence in Obama economic advisers, 19% have favorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Geithner
[09:43] {Threei}  I lost a track on % of idiots...
[09:44] {pragmatic} well, 100-31-19 = 50% :)
[09:44] {Threei}  nope
[09:44] {Threei}  there must be overlap in those two numbers
[09:44] {Threei}  some of those who like timmy have also confidence in advisers
[09:44] {Threei}  SLW
[09:45] {Threei}  looking for sahort entry
[09:45] {Threei}  doji with .60 low...
[09:45] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .60 break
[09:45] {Threei}  1:1
[09:45] {Threei}  that was easy
[09:46] {Threei}  nice march RIMM
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break half lot
[09:49] {Threei}  stop under .30
[09:50] {Threei}  held by fingertips
[09:50] {Threei}  should proceed to 1:2 now
[09:50] {nemo} ism number coming
[09:51] {Threei}  sigh
[09:51] {Threei}  exchanging jabs with market
[09:51] {Threei}  one for us, one for it
[09:51] {nemo} what I see is market wants to go long, but waiting on the number
[09:59] {Threei}  keep an eye on SLW for .90 break
[09:59] {Threei}  hopefully AFTER the numers
[09:59] {Threei}  don't want to jump in right before those
[10:00] {Threei}  good number
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 53 V 52.8E
[10:01] {Threei}  1:1 SLW
[10:01] {Threei}  like charm, broke right after numbers
[10:02] {Threei}  1:2
[10:03] {Threei}  1:3, out
[10:04] {Threei}  1:4, without me
[10:09] {Threei}  RIMM
[10:09] {Threei}  short must be close
[10:10] {Threei}  crap, just as I typed
[10:10] {Threei}  lol
[10:10] {Threei}  let's see if it bounces a bit toward 23
[10:10] {Threei}  ideally .90 - 23 range to short .90 break
[10:10] {Threei}  here we are
[10:11] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .90 break
[10:11] {Threei}  not a scalp
[10:12] {Threei}  milk trade candidate
[10:13] {Threei}  nah... wash
[10:20] {RonS} copper is staying down...but fcx up...
[10:20] {Threei}  yeah, connection is not always straightforward
[10:21] {Threei}  silver and SLW, too... there are times when they diverge
[10:24] {Threei}  market feels like we start slow climb unless news interrupt it
[10:24] {RonS} when is ese back?
[10:25] {Threei}  I thought he was here
[10:26] {RonS} months ago he said he was going out of town during conference...
[10:26] {Threei}  dino is one week golf vacation, don't remember ese saying anything
[10:29] {nemo} back 14th
[10:29] {Threei}  who of them?
[10:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  33 break
[10:33] {Threei}  not a scalp for me
[10:33] {Threei}  should be capable of more
[10:33] {Threei}  1:1
[10:34] {Threei}  partialing and trailing
[10:34] {Threei}  eventual target about 1:4 - 1:5
[10:37] {Threei}  1:2
[10:41] {Threei}  1:3
[10:41] {Threei}  1:4, target hit
[10:41] {Threei}  out +.40
[10:41] {thomcbell} A+
[10:41] {Threei}  ty kind sir
[10:41] {RonS} gj
[10:42] {Threei}  thanks
[10:42] {Threei}  the rest of you, I am not talking to you lot
[10:43] {Threei}  hmmm... on second thought... I would be too scared not to talk to larisa
[10:43] {Threei}  and swill likes my jokes sometimes...
[10:43] {Threei}  nah, changing my mind... still talking
[10:45] {Threei}  Like it or not, the euro zone will have to break up, and the euros days are numbered.
[10:45] {Threei}  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-outlook-breaking-up-is-hard-to-do-2011-10-04?link=mw_home_kiosk
[10:45] {Threei}  very much my view
[10:52] {nemo} chop and grind up
[10:53] {Threei}  [10:24] {Threei} market feels like we start slow climb unless news interrupt it
[10:53] {Threei}  seems like that was on target
06[11:07] * Threei slaps pragmatic around a bit with a trade he, pragmatic, missed
06[11:07] * pragmatic problems with the computer
[11:07] {pragmatic} was it a good one? 1:6 or around ?
[11:08] {Threei}  1:4.5
[11:14] {Threei}  look who decided to wake up
[11:14] {Threei}  now go throw a stone in ese's window
[11:14] {patience} moi?
[11:15] {Threei}  si
[11:15] {Threei}  or, da
[11:15] {patience} scaled tna earlier
[11:15] {patience} scalped
[11:53] {Threei}  lol
[11:54] {Threei}  Wikipedia:I know everything! Facebook:I know everybody! Google:I have it all! Internet:Without me youre nothin Electricity:Whatever bitches!\
[11:54] {RonS} that is funny
[11:58] {nemo} GLD GLD GLD
[12:05] {Threei}  (US) Senator Reid (D-NV) formally introduces his version of the so-called Buffett tax, would add 5% tax on incomes greater than $1M to help pay for jobs bill
[12:06] {Threei}  OTP Bank NYRT Moody's places Ukraine unit ratings on review for possible downgrade
[12:06] {RonS} idiot...where is the jobs bill?
[12:06] {nemo} what jobs
[12:07] {nemo} it's to pay for unemployment benefits
[12:07] {Threei}  (EU) Germany Chancellor Merkel: German banks should first try to find captial in the market themselves, if they are unsuccessful the state will come to their aid
[12:07] {Threei}  - EFSF can be used as a final line of defense to recapitalize banks.
[12:07] {Threei}  - Believes that Italy will be able to regain the confidence of markets.
[12:13] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[12:15] {z} stop .60?
[12:15] {Threei}  just above
[12:17] {Threei}  1:1
[12:18] {nemo} pretty ballsy with that price support and R1 right there
[12:18] {Threei}  in terms of chart configuration, quite a ciikie-cutter trade
[12:19] {Threei}  cookie
[12:19] {Threei}  1:2
[12:19] {Threei}  easy money today
06[12:20] * Threei pats himself on the back, dislocates shoulder, swears and goes back to sleep
[12:20] {nemo} spy iwm coming into vwap
[12:22] {Threei}  told you UI needed that short break from trading, little travel, light drinkng...
[12:22] {Threei}  yesterday and today are effortlessly profitable
[12:22] {nemo} define light drinking?
[12:22] {Threei}  I can't... coming up with definitions requires hard drinking
[12:23] {RonS} rotflol
[12:41] {Threei}  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-05/anonymous-vows-to-attack-nyse-in-support-of-occupty-wall-street-protests.html
[12:41] {Threei}  great
[12:51] {z} RIMM losing steam now looks like
[12:52] {Threei}  what the deuce with GLD?
[12:57] {patience} 2 traders at ubs quit over unauthorized trades is on bnn flashing as breaking news.,...so how old is this?
[13:10] {nemo} guess I should have taken that TNA long...
[13:28] {Threei}  26% Have Favorable Opinion of Bernanke, 51% Unfavorable
[14:09] {Threei}  (CH) White House's Carney: Some aspects of the China currency bill in the Senate raise concerns; there has been some appreciation in CNY but more needs to be done
[14:09] {Threei}  - Warns that the bill could cause problems in regards to the US's international obligations.
[14:09] {Threei}  ***Reminder: On Oct 4th, House Speaker Boehner warned that it was unclear whether the China currency bill is the best way to address currency levels in china, noting that he is concerned about Chinas currency, but legislating to fix it is well beyond what Congress ought to be doing.
[14:27] {z} rimm rumor bubble may be popping
[14:27] {z} again, like yesterday
[14:57] {Threei}  ok... up or down last hour?
[14:57] {Threei}  anyone has gut feeling?
[14:58] {RonS} down slight...
[14:58] {z} probably up....all the euro problems are apparently magically solved, and us in fine shape too
[14:58] {z} U.S.
[14:58] {Threei}  mine is down, but my gut is pretty consistent lately in "down" feeling, so not sure how much I can trust it :)
[15:00] {z} rimm shareholders grasping on to anything positive, but seriously, why would vodaphone want them?
[15:01] {z} or anyone for that matter...sheesh
[15:04] {Threei}  anyone is right
[15:04] {Threei}  patents... maybe some value in there
[15:04] {z} only 2-3 billion from what i read
[15:06] {z} http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/10/05/rim-baird-thinks-ma-rumors-far-fetched/?mod=yahoobarrons
[15:10] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[15:12] {z} under .65? or .60 (invalidated already)?
[15:13] {nemo} could reestablish if it stays under .65
[15:13] {nemo} aggressive her vad?
[15:13] {Threei}  not sure...
[15:13] {nemo} yeah no kiddin'
[15:13] {Threei}  ok... .60 break aggressive
[15:14] {nemo} spy gonna run
[15:15] {Threei}  nah, not a shorting time
[15:15] {Threei}  yet
[15:43] {Threei}  for the way this day developed, quite amazing that we found all those plays we did
[15:43] {Threei}  normally this kind of days is empty for us
[15:51] {Threei}  OK... no more trades today
[15:51] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
[15:51] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:51] {z} cya
[15:51] {swill} Thank you
[15:52] {larisa} bye :)

October-November 2011 Outlook

Trade The News Monthly Preview: October/November 2011 Outlook

The Greek Myth
The global markets are in trouble because they have been clinging to three conceits of mythic proportion. The first is that Greece is a salvageable member of the Euro Zone. The ancient Greeks believed men's lives were at the mercy of the vagaries of the gods who decided their fates from the remote seat of power on Mount Olympus. The current crop of Greeks, however, is not so inclined to submit to the whims of centralized power. Through a series of strikes and rallies protesting austerity measures, the Greek people have made it clear they do not want to be forced to live a Spartan lifestyle.

The second myth that has kept things afloat is that the Fed will provide endless stimulus at the beckoning of markets. The central bank has taken additional action at its last two meetings with increasingly meager effect, and is highly reluctant to unleash its last titanic weapon, QE3. The third assumption of the market is that the developing world, especially China, can keep its growth engine humming along independent of the horrible state of the economy elsewhere.

Markets have hobbled along for the last few months on the hopes that the Euro Zone can fabricate a solution to the Greek debt problem, while the Fed will keeping raining down stimulus and the Chinese engine will stave off a global double dip. The myth of the successful Greek bailout appears to be fading as reports have emerged that European nations are preparing plans to protect their financial systems from a Greek default. Meanwhile the tales of Fed stimulus and Chinese growth powering the world seem to be near an end. Unfolding events over the next few months will determine how long these myths can be perpetuated.

Ursa Minor or Ursa Major?

The stars have aligned against the stock market. Though US equity markets are a little less than 20% off of recent highs, European and Asian bourses have officially entered a bear market as uncertainty has siphoned off the gains seen earlier in the year. The question for equities now is whether this will be a minor or major bear market as headline roulette drives the daily action. An absence of progress out of Europe, more signs of a Chinese slowdown, and unfulfilled stimulus dreams out of the Fed could send equities on another downward jag.

Stocks have stalled and IPO activity has completely dried up, though M&A activity is still robust enough to indicate that corporate leaders at least still see long term value in the equity market. United Technologies $18.4B acquisition of Goodrich is the latest example of large scale acquisitions taking advantage of depressed stock prices and cheap financing. Other firms are looking to shake things up by splitting up their operations, Conoco Phillips and Tyco for example.

In the near term, the stock market may continue to be supported by a lack of other investment vehicles. Bond yields remain historically low, commodity margins are being ratcheted up, and housing prices are showing no sign of rebounding any time soon. The next test for equities will be in the Q3 earnings season. In the depths of the recession, corporations took measures to squeeze productivity to the limit and took advantage of low interest rates to refinance or pay off debt. Now they need to start demonstrating earnings growth to justify PE ratio expectations.

It can't be forgotten that October has a reputation as the month of massacres. With confidence gone and uncertainty ruling the roost, October could be setting up for a classic crescendo. When reading the entrails, a lack of sector leadership is another bad omen. Equity markets rarely move higher without the financial sector, and banks are still wallowing in the prospects of extremely low interest rates for years to come as well as uncertainties about exposure to risky European peripheral debt. French banks stocks have been the victims of the latter, while ongoing legal issues from the 2008 mortgage fiasco, and extended short selling bans on European financials have put additional pressure on Wall Street stocks. Multiple compression will likely continue until the crisis of confidence can be reversed.

A Job for Hercules

A lack of confidence has stultified US growth as consumers have pulled back, electing to save what money they have rather than spend it. Retailers continue to report decent sales and advertisers have noted a disconnect between the still healthy ad market and the apparent fall off in economic activity. The US Q3 advance GDP data on October 27 will confirm whether the economy is truly stalling or if it is still showing slow growth. More weak data could reinforce the belief that US consumers are recoiling and take another bite out of Asian markets that have dropped alongside flagging consumption in the US and Europe.

It remains to be seen if China can manage a soft landing and keep inflation in check. China has proclaimed that its inflation rate will start declining from a peak of 6.5% in July, and indeed it has started to moderate. If additional China CPI data released on October 10 and November 10 does not bear out this moderating trend, it could raise fresh concerns that the PRC is losing its handle on the economy. China's Q3 GDP data in mid-October will fill in another piece of this puzzle. Last quarter's reading at 9.5% was the lowest since Q3 of 2009, and any further slide toward the inflation rate could kick out the last stable leg of the global economy. China manufacturing data has also been a concern lately with some readings indicating contraction for the last several months. Meanwhile Japan could give a small bump to the global outlook as it reboots its economy in the wake of the tsunami disaster.

In the US the key data point remains payrolls. The next two jobs reports on October 7 and November 4 hold little promise for a turnaround given the stagnant economy and total lack of momentum on the President's jobs plan. Uncertainty continues to plague the job market so expectations are low for this data, possibly to the extent that a small upside surprise might be more impactful than usual. One glimmer of hope was seen in the most recent weekly jobless claims data which came in below 400K for only the second time since April.

President Obama has finally pivoted to address the stagnant employment situation, but the political climate does not hold much hope for any significant jobs package being passed this year. Congress continues its partisan wrangling, most recently holding up a short term funding bill that threatened a government shutdown in October. A compromise was reached, just barely, but the bill only extends funding through mid-November when the issue will be taken up yet again. Washington appears to be proving S&P right on it politics-based downgrade of the US credit rating.

The next big battle in Washington will surround the negotiations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, which seeks to find areas of compromise by ceding the power the Greek chorus that is Congress to a group of twelve legislators. The so-called "supercommittee" has been charged with finding at least $1.5T in additional budget cuts by November 23, to be presented to the Congress for a simple up or down vote. President Obama has asked the committee to look for even more substantial cuts that can be executed along with tax reforms and his jobs proposal, but the toxic partisanship in the capital has stifled the chances of a compromise bill. The only faint hope of political compromise that might be imagined is one in which the Congress starts feeling concern about its abysmal 12% approval rating and the "do-nothing" label in the next election. One small step toward reconciliation would be passage of the three free trade agreements that have been pending before Congress for the better part of a year. Recently the legislature has made some progress toward ratifying these trade deals with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama which are expected to have a modestly positive effect on employment.

Atlas Shrugs

The inaction of the Congress has loaded an ever greater burden on the Fed. At its last meeting, the FOMC downgraded its US economic outlook, saying downside risks are now "significant," specifically pointing to the strains in global financial markets. With the launch of 'Operation Twist,' selling shorter dated treasury holdings to buy debt from the longer end of the curve, Fed Chairman Bernanke gave the market even more stimulus despite the reservations of three dissenters on the FOMC board. Still the Chairman has tried to signal that the Fed cannot act as Atlas carrying the world on its back forever-speeches out of the Fed are focusing more and more on the shared responsibility of politicians to take steps to tame the deficit problem over the long term.

Market participants are hungry for more quantitative easing to give the markets another artificial kick start, but Bernanke and his colleagues have made it clear there will be a high bar for QE3. The fact that the November 2 FOMC meeting will include one of the scheduled quarterly press conferences by Bernanke could be enough to spark speculation that the Chairman will use the platform to announce another stimulus program, though it seems unlikely after the proactive steps taken at the prior two meetings. One further half measure that the Fed could take is to cut interest on excess reserves (IOER), a move that would intend to push banks to lend more money, though some analysts have cautioned that it could cause unintentional disruptions in the money and repo markets.

US treasury yields have continued to ignore S&P's downgrade of the US sovereign rating in early August, and are now even more compressed following the Fed's decision to implement Operation Twist. Predictions that the US sovereign downgrade would bump up the US 10-year yield by a few dozen basis points did not materialize, and with Twist now in effect, most analysts are predicting the 10-year treasury yield will fall to 1.5% or even lower. On their face treasuries now seem unappealing, with so many higher yielding alternatives, but as long as the Euro Zone's fate remains uncertain US treasuries will remain bid.

The Golden "Fleece"

The other big risk-off asset has been precious metals. Until recently gold bugs have had a lot to cheer about as their investment vehicle has continued to forge new highs, fueled by the uncertainty swirling on both sides of the Atlantic and purported experts declaring the yellow metal the only safe "currency." The rush to risk aversion that catapulted gold prices higher, however, created a crowded trade that unwound even more quickly. The nose dive seen in precious metal prices is thought to have been brought about by rising margins and traders selling a rare winning position to cover margin calls in other asset classes. As the Greek crisis heated up this summer metals went parabolic, and there was no doubt that gold was getting ahead of itself as it approached the $2,000 mark, and silver's rise to $50 was clearly driven by speculation. The dramatic collapse in gold may have left many retail buyers who got in at the top feeling fleeced, but it may regain its footing in coming weeks as long as the European situation remains murky.

Industrial commodities like copper and oil have also suffered setbacks on the expectations of a global economic stall. Copper prices bear watching as they have been a strong predictor of economic activity, especially in China, the world's factory. Copper has broken some key support levels lately which could portend further downside in economic activity.

The slowing global economy and a stronger dollar have chipped away at energy prices over the last few months. A counter move could occur if an echo of the Arab Spring is seen as Egyptian elections approach in November, but the baseline scenario is for further weakness. OPEC officials have issued some nervous statements about slowing demand as the price of crude has dipped toward the lower end of the price range that the cartel finds acceptable. Saudi Arabia has been stepping up production to make up for some of the shortfall of light sweet crude from Libya, even as the new government in Tripoli has begun the slow process of restoring the nation's production capacity to what it once was. Reports suggest OPEC can tolerate Brent crude as low as $90 (at the time of writing Brent is at $100), but the weaker euro lending strength to the greenback will make any rebound in dollar denominated commodities less pronounced.

Cla$h of th€ Titans

The currency market has lately had a cycloptic focus on euro weakness. Despite the growing consensus that a technical Greek default is inevitable, the euro has managed to stay relatively strong for most of the summer, thanks in part to the floundering dollar. Successive rumors predicting how the Euro Zone will be saved-China or the BRICS sweeping in with new bailout funding, impending plans to leverage the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)-helped keep the euro elevated for most of the summer, but it has now begun a technical breakdown. The euro has broken below key supports at the 1.38 level against the dollar and now some analysts see parity within reach if the EMU fails to act swiftly. Odds makers now see little chance of the Greek situation being resolved in a benign way. A major restructuring is the most likely outcome, which could chip away at the currency, taking it down another 10-20%.

The broader forex market is starting to exhibit the charred earth of the currency war. Japan has been battling yen appreciation with interventions to the extent that the new finance minister recently went to the extreme of promising Japan not peg its currency, suggesting there were some rumblings it might make such a drastic move. This speculation may have been fostered by the Swiss National Bank action setting a hard floor in its currency to fight off safe haven flows that were strengthening the franc beyond their comfort zone.

More recently the dollar has been winning the ugly contest with the euro and attracting more flows. The next salvo in the currency war may be a bill currently moving through the US Senate that names China as a currency manipulator. The fate of the legislation is uncertain in the GOP led House, but it could cause renewed friction between the world's two biggest economies at a delicate time and trigger a broader conflict over trade issues with China. The Chinese yuan weakened against the USD in September, its first monthly decline since January, which will add to the ire of members of Congress as the Senate takes up the bill.

Greek Odyssey

Without question the biggest event risk in the next two months is the quest to save the Euro Zone. Crucial to this task is passage of so-called July 21 agreement that authorizes expanding the EFSF fund to €440B from €250B and empowers the fund to offer credit lines, aid banks, buy distressed sovereign bonds in the secondary market (to take that burden off the ECB). Most of the EMU's 17 member nations have now ratified the agreement with the rest of the votes expected by mid-October.

As the bailout plan walks through a minefield of parliamentary approvals, the persistent concern must be whether Greece will fall short of its promises again. The IMF/ECB/EU troika withdrew its mission to Greece earlier this month after it found a lack of follow through by the Greeks, but recently resumed its discussions after getting new assurances, emblemized by the Greek parliament approving a new property tax to help cover its shortfall. Pending a troika report on the situation, the next Greek aid tranche is now due to be disbursed in early November, just in time to replenish Greek coffers.

Assuming Greece follows through on its promises this time, additional hurdles remain. Germany approved the EFSF expansion but officials there have reportedly been pushing to revisit the issue of the size of haircuts for holders of Greek bonds. Bondholders agreed to swap €135B in bonds maturing through 2020 for new EU backed bonds with an implied haircut of 21%, but a group of nations led by Germany now say they were forced to rush into an agreement that is too favorable to banks and suggest haircuts on the order of 50% or greater would be more appropriate. This has met resistance, especially from France whose banks have the greatest exposure to Greece and thus the most to lose from the haircuts. Their argument has been that reopening the issue could require a whole new round of parliamentary votes, slowing the process even more.

Another lingering issue is that of certain countries, primarily Finland, asking for some form of collateral to ensure the Greeks fulfill their promises. Recent reports have said this issue is close to a satisfactory resolution, and Finland has given away some of its bargaining power by approving the EFSF expansion. Another counterproductive issue is the overt discussion of a financial transaction tax in Europe aimed at helping pay for the stabilization fund. The latest chatter is that the individual nations are looking at unilateral backup plans to shore up their own banking systems should the EMU efforts to resolve the debt crisis fail, demonstrating a lack of confidence in their leaders' ability to effectuate a Greek solution.

Even if the Greece situation is contained, the EMU debt crisis has turned out to be a many headed hydra- when one problem appears to be contained two more appear in its place. A Greek solution may only cause attention to shift back to other troubled peripheral nations. To squelch the last flare up outside of Greece, in early August the ECB expanded its bond buying program to Spain and Italy in exchange for accelerated austerity agendas in these countries. This bond buying program managed to tamp down Italian and Spanish 10-year yields below five percent for a few weeks, but as the deterioration of the euro zone debt situation has dragged on, those yields have pushed back toward the six percent level as markets presage the next round of peripheral flashpoints.

Now that most of the EMU states have passed the EFSF expansion, including some more reticent nations like Finland, an end game is at least in sight for Greece. Once the EFSF expansion is squared away, Euro Zone ministers may be able to step up the pace of their next policy foray. It has been reported that euro zone officials have already drafted a plan that lays out ways to leverage the EFSF to efficiently provide support where needed. Early speculation has been that leveraging plans could involve a TALF-like program that promotes private investment or a TARP-like program to backstop banks. Backroom discussion have also been rumored to be cooking up a €2T bailout fund expansion, and a massive privatization program for Greece (code named "Eureka") modeled after the East German integration, but both have been strenuously denied.

Notwithstanding the rumored schemes, Euro Zone leaders are behind still the curve, and as they struggle to pass the EFSF to prop up the peripheral states, worries are growing that additional measures will be needed to protect the core nations from contagion. The concern is that member states that are too big for the EFSF to support, like Italy, the EMU's third largest economy, could be next to crumble. And the deadline still looms. The G20 is said to have demanded that the full Euro Zone stabilization plan be in place by the November G20 conclave in Cannes, France, coming up in about five weeks. The Canadian Finance Minister put it succinctly, saying the euro zone needs to use "overwhelming" force to resolve its crisis now. In the meantime, market forces may not find the G20 timetable fast enough, and could test Europe's resolve with new market dislocations.

Can a Roman Save Greece or the Euro Empire?

In the midst of this most delicate period for the euro zone, the ECB will undergo a key transition from current President Jean Claude Trichet to the new chief, Mario Draghi. The tacit agreement since the foundation of the Euro Zone was that the next ECB president would be a German, but when the heir apparent, Axel Weber, chose to resign from public service earlier this year, Draghi an Italian (born in Rome), was abruptly drafted into the position. Draghi is well respected and since 2006 has been governor of the Bank of Italy as well as Chairman of the Financial Stability Board (FSB), which makes recommendations about the global financial system to the G20. His ECB candidacy was clouded slightly by his four year stint as a VP for Goldman Sachs, which was accused of helping Greece disguise its desperate debt situation, but Draghi denied any role it those shenanigans.

Draghi's eight year term as ECB President will begin in November. Even with his long history at the ECB, until the markets get a feel for how Draghi will lead the institution, the leadership transition could become another impediment to the process of saving the Euro Zone. Valid or not, questions may also arise about his objectivity if his home country becomes the focus of the next larger debt crisis.

The first act of Draghi's tenure may be reversing the ECB's decision to start tightening rates earlier this year. Declaring a need to curb inflationary risks in April, the ECB moved to begin normalizing rates, taking them off of their historic lows in two 25 basis point increments. The resurgence of the debt crisis in August raised serious questions about whether the ECB acted hastily, moving rates ahead of the US Fed for the first time in its history. With the region on the edge of a double dip, many analysts have called for a retraction of the rate hikes. It is unlikely that the ECB will send off Trichet with a rate cut in October in light of recent figures that show EMU inflation is percolating again, now at the highest level in almost three years. The ECB's single mandate to contain inflation might allow a rate cut in early November however if the CPI data moderates by then. More Euro Zone CPI data is due on October 31.

If all goes well, Draghi will oversee the handoff of some of the buttressing duties the ECB has undertaken to the EFSF. The expanded EFSF should take some pressure off of the central bank when its administrators take over the function of buying debt from the Euro Zone's ailing members.

Hit or Myth

As we plunge into the fourth quarter of the year, economies in the developed world are hitting stall speed, while the developing nations are still contending with inflation problems and currency issues. The months ahead look overcast as the world holds its breath for the Greek government to fulfill its latest promises, wishes for more Fed stimulus, and prays for China not to stumble. Government forecasters are still holding on to predictions of growth rebounding in the coming months, if more modestly than previously predicted, but it appears more and more clear that an economic rebound in the second half of 2011 is in jeopardy.

Economies are slowing across the globe as developed nations exercise fiscal restraint, reducing the consumption that the emerging markets count on to fuel growth. Slowing global consumption and rampant inflation may prove to be the Achilles' heel for China's once unassailable economy. Meanwhile the US economy can't get off the ground despite unprecedented stimulus by the Fed. Even though the central bank has put rates on hold through mid-2013 and danced the "Twist," markets still want Bernanke to let them fly on the wings of QE3.

The euro zone debt crisis remains a Sword of Damocles hanging over the economic recovery, keeping markets in risk averse mode for the time being. Until some clear "overwhelming" plan is formulated ahead of the G20 deadline, headline roulette will continue to cause markets to sway too and fro. Ongoing political squabbling and the sluggish response to the crisis have been enough to erode confidence in the prospects for a global recovery. Witness the brinkmanship over the debt ceiling debate in Washington, and the plodding pace with which Euro Zone leaders, who went on holiday in August, are addressing their debt crisis.

The latest Greek myth that has been concocted is that Greece can remain a member of a stable Euro Zone. Backstopping and further ring fencing measures may put off the inevitable for months or even years, but Greece will truly need the favor of the Gods to remain a permanent member of the currency union. Ultimately, it seems the euro zone has accepted there will be a Greek default, and what matters now is how the default occurs. An orderly, short-term technical default appears to be what they are playing for. If the Greek people continue to resist austerity measures, or a minor EMU member bails out on the bailout plan, a sudden disorderly default could ensue, unceremoniously carving Greece out of the euro zone and roiling markets on a scale equal to or perhaps greater than the Lehman Brothers collapse. To avoid a Euro Zone that resembles the ruins of the Parthenon, Europe needs to act now.

TradeTheNews

Oct 04 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

The day progressed well, with just one stop and a lot of nice trades. Good start to the month so far. Just so you don't think I lost my touch while traveling or speaking... :) Catch of the Day:

RIMM proceeded even lower after our cover, but lunch time trading rarely calls for extended moves.

Session Time: Tue Oct 04 00:00:00 2011
[08:49] {Threei}  Good morning
[08:50] {Threei}  how are things here, in valley?
[08:51] {nemo} internet unstable today
[08:51] {Threei}  I saw your connection timing out
[08:55] {Threei}  so, you guys observed nicely shaped market crash
[08:55] {Threei}  and I wasn't here to use words crash and panic and irritate the living daylight out of larisa...
[08:56] {patience} are we there yet?
[08:56] {Threei}  reversal?
[08:56] {patience} no, whistler  :)
[08:57] {patience} how was it
[08:57] {Threei}  ah
[08:57] {Threei}  fantastic
[08:57] {patience} terrific
[08:57] {Threei}  one of the most scenic rides I've ever seen
[08:57] {patience} yes it is
[08:57] {Threei}  on par with road to Hana or Oregon coast
[08:58] {patience} you took the occasional photo?
[08:58] {Threei}  of course
[08:58] {Threei}  stopped at all the waterfalls
[08:58] {Threei}  village itself is very cute
[09:05] {Threei}  Deutsche Bank warns it will not meet its 2011 operating profit target of 10bn
[09:07] {RonS} gm...how bad was yesterday?  337 issues were down more than 10%...
[09:07] {Threei}  hi Ron
[09:08] {Threei}  was it tradeable?
[09:08] {RonS} hello...did you wow them on Sunday?
[09:08] {Threei}  standing ovation
[09:09] {RonS} it was very whippy...wonderful on the ovation...
[09:09] {Threei}  well... that came when I finished, so who knpws, maybe people were just happy it was over
[09:10] {Threei}  but by the criteria of no one falling asleep or leaving during presentation from 9 to 4... I guess it was good :)
[09:11] {RonS} ended w/ slight positive but felt like coming out unscathed after a fire fight was a win...
[09:11] {dino} gm all
[09:12] {dino} it was tough in afternoon, 100 + pt moves in minutes
[09:12] {RonS} how could anyone fall asleep when they were constantly interpreting you accent w/ what did he say?
[09:12] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:12] {RonS} :D
[09:12] {dino} :)
[09:13] {Threei}  no, accent was fine... but when I suddenly realized that fro the last 10 min I spoke russian, I had to repeat myself :)
[09:13] {RonS} lol
[09:14] {Threei}  kidding... it was quite good all throughout
[09:14] {Threei}  active participation by the audience
[09:14] {Threei}  and we moved through some of topics unusually fast, which meant folks were beter prepared than average
[09:19] {dino} glad it went well. my conference starts tomorrow, on the golf course
[09:19] {Threei}  :)
[09:20] {Threei}  I see FCX held decently yesterday
[09:22] {Threei}  ended at the low, but the drop is quite restrained in comparison with market overall
[09:23] {Threei}  not jumping on it right away, but certainly keeping on a radar
[09:23] {dino} looking for my dow 10k hat
[09:24] {Threei}  wow really... I didn't realize we are that far down
[09:24] {larisa} gm :)
[09:24] {Threei}  all support levels got broken
[09:24] {Threei}  larisa!! :)
[09:24] {dino} yes
[09:24] {Threei}  can you believe what opportunity I missed over these two days?
[09:24] {dino} getting my moneys' worh out of that hat
[09:24] {Threei}  [08:55] {Threei} so, you guys observed nicely shaped market crash
[09:24] {Threei}  [08:55] {Threei} and I wasn't here to use words crash and panic and irritate the living daylight out of larisa...
[09:26] {larisa} I do not let people irritate me, I just ignore or leave :)
[09:27] {Threei}  oh, that's why nemo is leaving every few minutes
[09:28] {Threei}  a few folks are out this morning I see...
[09:29] {Threei}  OK... watching FCX for long setup
[09:29] {Threei}  not rushing in, let's let first spikes work themselves out
[09:30] {Threei}  prepare half lot, let's see if we get good pullback
[09:31] {Threei}  ideally, under .30 but holding above .20
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[09:33] {Threei}  if stays under .30
[09:33] {Threei}  lol
[09:33] {Threei}  invalidated, and no chance for entry on a long side
[09:34] {Threei}  OK, FCX
[09:34] {dino}  meli flat, titn positive
[09:34] {dino} nxpi too
[09:34] {Threei}  if you grabbed it there, 1:1
[09:35] {dino} nvda holds well
[09:35] {Threei}  if not, do not go second chance
[09:35] {Threei}  if it goea under .30 again, most likely to lose support this time
[09:36] {Threei}  hmm.. wait, disregard SLW comment
[09:36] {Threei}  wrong quote
[09:36] {Threei}  too many stocks at the screen
[09:38] {Threei}  no news for this spike
[09:39] {Threei}  watching LVS fopr pullback entry
[09:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .20 break
[09:40] {Threei}  1:1
[09:41] {Threei}  faster than I could indicate stop level
[09:41] {dino} nvda l .75
[09:41] {Threei}  no second entry
[09:41] {Threei}  wait for more drop
[09:42] {Threei}  between .70 and .80
[09:42] {Threei}  FCX
[09:42] {Threei}  interested again
[09:42] {Threei}  no clear entry yet
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .80 break
[09:43] {Threei}  if holding .70
[09:43] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .25 break
[09:44] {Threei}  stop under .15
[09:46] {dino} stop nvda -.01
[09:46] {Threei}  stop to under .20
[09:46] {Threei}  takes too long
[09:47] {Threei}  let's keep it tighter
[09:47] {dino} ron, meli
[09:47] {Threei}  1:1
[09:47] {Threei}  1:2
[09:47] {dino} nxpi l .37
[09:47] {Threei}  1:3, out
[09:47] {dino} nvda l .75
[09:48] {Threei}  this one was finally easy enough to execute
[09:48] {Threei}  LVS got away meanwhile
[09:48] {Threei}  RIMM
[09:48] {Threei}  Research in Motion Ltd Strength attributed to chatter RIMM has hired an advisor to consider strategic alternatives
[09:49] {dino} about time
[09:49] {Threei}  no kidding, lol
[09:49] {dino} rimm and hp boards blow
[09:51] {dino} chk gap fill dec
[09:52] {dino} out nvda .80 +.05
[09:52] {dino} out nxpi .28 -.-9
[09:52] {dino} -.09
[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break
[09:54] {Threei}  stop under .20
[09:55] {Threei}  1 cent to 1:1?
[09:56] {Threei}  come on
[09:56] {dino} ndx gap 2044
[09:56] {Threei}  Ben to speak at 10
[09:56] {Threei}  out FCX, oversat this time
[09:58] {dino} re-liquify talk perhaps
[09:59] {Threei}  feels like denial time is over, market finally realized greece is done and nothing can be done about that
[09:59] {dino} agreed, greece is to be cut off
[10:00] {dino} sucker bankers to be nationalized
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) AUG FACTORY ORDERS: -0.2% V 0.0%E
[10:00] {Threei}  ben is on
[10:00] {Threei}  (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Fed is ready to take more steps to aid the US economy - testimony Before JEC
[10:00] {Threei}  and that sends market up
[10:00] {dino} qe3
[10:01] {Threei}  sigh
[10:01] {Threei}  guy is criminal
[10:01] {dino} salvation thru inflation
[10:01] {dino} thats all they know
[10:01] {RonS} wow that fcx bar...
[10:01] {Threei}  no kidding
[10:02] {dino} nxpi l .13
[10:02] {dino} meli sm l .50
[10:02] {Threei}  (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Fed is ready to take more steps to aid the US economy; urges lawmakers to take action, calls fostering a healthy economy a "shared responsibility" - testimony Before JEC
[10:02] {Threei}  - Govt sector weakness will be a drag on the US economy
[10:02] {Threei}  - Fiscal policy is of critical importance to the economy
[10:02] {Threei}  - Recovery has been much less robust than expected, European crisis remains an ongoing risk.
[10:02] {Threei}  - Elevated inflation seen in the first half of 2011 is not likely to persist
[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .30 break
[10:04] {dino} serious blood in oil patch
[10:04] {Threei}  stop above .40
[10:05] {Threei}  1:1
[10:05] {Threei}  thought of another short FCX but decided to sit out this volatility
[10:07] {dino} nxpi to .43
[10:08] {dino} to .46
[10:10] {dino} chk l .75
[10:10] {dino} nxpi to .53
[10:11] {dino} out nxpi .53, +.40
[10:12] {dino} out chk .out chk .92, +.17
[10:17] {Threei}  nice sniping
[10:18] {Threei}  (US) House of Reps' Brady (R-TX) planning to recommend Fed only be obliged to focus on price stability, removing mandate for employment; calls for the Fed to manage the dollar policy- Brady serves on the Ways and Means committee
[10:18] {Threei}  CLWR halt
[10:18] {Threei}  circuit breaker
[10:19] {dino} csh l .95
[10:22] {dino} csh stop -.15
[10:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .50 break
[10:23] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:24] {thomcbell} vad that slw setup gets invalidated when the 27.40 reaction low was lost?
[10:24] {Threei}  pretty muhc, yes
[10:24] {Threei}  see a few bars prior, all bottoming right above that support?
[10:25] {Threei}  that's what formed the consolidation range to break
[10:25] {Threei}  with clear resistance at .50 since about 10 am
[10:25] {Threei}  so loss of that support rendered setup invalid
[10:26] {Threei}  although the break of .50 remains lucrative, so let's see if that setup reestablishes itself
[10:26] {dino} whipping around 100 pt range in minutes
[10:28] {Threei}  amazing, isn't it
[10:28] {dino} yes
[10:28] {dino} and dangerous
[10:29] {thomcbell} tu
[10:33] {Threei}  wow
[10:33] {Threei}  FCX lost its mind?
[10:34] {dino} jjc up w.it
[10:34] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  30 break half lot
[10:35] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[10:35] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:37] {Threei}  sheesh
[10:37] {Threei}  (US) New Jersey Gov Christie said to be preparing to state that he will not run for the Republican presidential nomination - ABC News
[10:37] {Threei}  for what, 17th time?
[10:37] {z} at least
[10:39] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break half lot
[10:39] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:39] {Threei}  lol
[10:40] {Threei}  hah
[10:40] {Threei}  (US) House of Reps said to have reached enough co sponsors that could theoretically allow passage of the China currency bill
[10:40] {Threei}  tensions rise
[10:41] {dino} idiots
[10:41] {RonS} idiocy runs unabated
[10:42] {dino} 07 all green
[10:42] {Threei}  in tought times you need clearly defined enemy...
[10:43] {Threei}  china fits the bill
[10:43] {dino} remember smoot hawley
[10:43] {dino} cat sm l.75
[10:45] {dino} out cat .10, +.35
[10:45] {dino} out meli .22, +.72
[10:46] {dino} ax murderer market
[10:46] {Threei}  nice trades
[10:46] {dino} ty
[10:48] {nemo} definitely router problem
[10:49] {Threei}  back now?
[10:49] {nemo} for the time being...hooked directly into the modem
[10:49] {Threei}  right
[10:51] {RonS} ugh nvda
[10:53] {dino} see it
[10:53] {dino} look meli too
[10:53] {dino} still feels "untrusting" meyers/ax murderer
[10:54] {dino} gold whack a mole
[11:12] {nemo} watch for spy fade here
[11:15] {RonS} akam sm s .10
[11:17] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 reak
[11:18] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[11:18] {dino} taking a break, back in 30 or so
[11:19] {Threei}  1:1
[11:19] {Threei}  1:2
[11:28] {RonS} stop akam -.10
[11:35] {RonS} nuts akam rinse
[11:41] {nemo} might be looking at tna long here
[11:43] {Threei}  can't tell if it's a mini-reversal or we still slide down
[11:49] {thomcbell} slw Vad? thru 27.04
[11:49] {Threei}  hard to tell
[11:49] {Threei}  chart itself looks right
[11:49] {Threei}  but there is no conviction
[11:49] {Threei}  feels a bit jellyoish
[11:50] {thomcbell} whole market is refuse
[11:50] {thomcbell} disgusting
[11:51] {nemo} imo, don't have that opinion, will color your reads...who cares which way it goes
[11:52] {thomcbell} i know i know - im almost there - 12 years of bad habits
[11:52] {thomcbell} being excorcised by my Taoist readings
[11:52] {nemo} o.k. momentum weakening looking for DT on spy
[11:53] {nemo} possessed are u?  Got just the guy
[12:00] {Threei}  if it were in my power, I'd make A taoist Trader required reading for anyone involved with markets
[12:00] {Threei}  of course I am hardly objective in this matter, lol
[12:14] {dino} what'd i miss
[12:15] {Threei}  were you out?
[12:15] {Threei}  :)
[12:15] {Threei}  nothing much
[12:15] {Threei}  slow up and down with no tradeable rythm
[12:16] {dino} sure know how to make a guy feel missed
[12:18] {Threei}  it's nemo's fault
[12:18] {Threei}  he calls me meanie and says I must maintain this reputation
[12:18] {Threei}  and be called meanie by nemo is not a small feat
[12:19] {Threei}  so I am trying
[12:21] {dino} f'ng nemo, :D
[12:22] {nemo} I need a drink
[12:23] {Threei}  hmmm
[12:23] {Threei}  and we thought we'd hear something new and original from him
[12:23] {nemo} plu cest change, plu cest le meme chose
[12:27] {dino} ?
[12:28] {dino} would've liked that 2044 gap on ndx to have filled
[12:35] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  21 break
[12:45] {Threei}  (EU) EU official comments on financial transaction (tobin) tax: Expects high frequency trading volumes to decline 20% and derivatives volumes to decline by 90% assuming the tax is implemented - financial press
[12:46] {Threei}  (SP) Spain Labor Min: Expects the 2011 19.8% unemployment target rate will be hard to meet
[12:47] {Threei}  sheesh
[12:49] {dino} wow, 19.8% officially, real must be 30%+. they are in a depression
[12:49] {Threei}  no kidding, what stunning numbers
[12:50] {Threei}  1:1
[12:51] {Threei}  I have to say, day is working out quite nicely
[12:54] {Threei}  overall, I dunno what we all worry about - isn't new iPhone coming out today, to solve al;l our troubles?? :)
[13:06] {Threei}  1:2
[13:10] {Threei}  soooo... I see Russia is starting to put USSR back tigether, eh
[13:11] {nemo} They don't call him Czar for nothing
[13:11] {Threei}  no kidding
[13:11] {Threei}  wake up you all, RIMM is giving us 1:3
[13:14] {Threei}  I am out
[13:14] {Threei}  1:3 is enough for this time of the day
[13:22] {Threei}  wow, 1:6 soon
[13:22] {Threei}  and what do you know, I get no single attaboy
[13:23] {Threei}  rodney dangerfield, where are you
[13:23] {nemo} grave
[13:24] {dino} atta boy
[13:26] {Threei}  thank you
[13:26] {Threei}  both
[13:26] {Threei}  lol
[13:31] {dino} sfly drop
[13:32] {dino} sm l .00
[13:33] {dino} stop -.40, like a rock
[13:37] {dino} sm l .35
[13:37] {dino} out .05, +.70
[13:37] {dino} 30
[13:37] {dino} sm l .30
[13:37] {dino} stop .09, -.21
[13:38] {RonS} SFLY getting smoked on the intro $AAPL new ap called Cards
[13:38] {dino} sm l .90
[13:39] {dino} well that sucked
[13:39] {RonS} also am hit
[13:42] {Threei}  what amazing amou of disruptive technologies is being intorduced regularly eh
[13:43] {nemo} buddy of mine just took applee short for $5
[13:44] {dino} gutsy
[13:44] {nemo} young and indestructable
[13:47] {dino} vprt drop
[13:47] {Threei}  RIMM lost 20
[13:49] {Threei}  even "strategic alternatives" don't help eh
[13:57] {RonS} qotd:  As if I'm going to send my Grandpa and iphone app card
[13:58] {RonS} q of the day:  If greeting card news is so exciting, why is $AAPL going down
[14:01] {Threei}  lol
[14:11] {Threei}  (GE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: Reiterates opposition of Greece default option; debate on increasing the size of the EFSF is nonsense, is being pushed by those who want a debt rescheduling
[14:11] {Threei}  - A Greek default would have incalcuable consequences.
[14:11] {Threei}  hmmm
[14:11] {Threei}  no increaasing to EFSF and no Greece default?
[14:11] {Threei}  ok... whatever
[14:12] {Threei}  reminds me Trotsky response to tight spot in war with Germany: no war, no peace, army goes home
[14:14] {dino} "opposition" may be key word. opposed to it but "hey, sh*t happens"
[14:15] {Threei}  (GR) Institute for international finance (IIF): A Greece debt deal would be highly destabilizing; additional hair cuts on Greece debt would not help the deficit issues
[14:15] {dino} they are getting to the "protest too much" phase
[14:15] {Threei}  lol
[14:33] {dino} joyg sm l .50
[14:34] {dino} out .90, +.40
[14:35] {Threei}  wtg
[14:36] {dino} lucky
[14:37] {Threei}  sure
[14:39] {dino} mim drop
[14:40] {z} herb greenberg makes me want to vomit
[14:41] {z} well, really, all of cnbc
[14:41] {dino} ok agree there
[14:41] {z} yea it's cnbc.....just a bunch of cheerleading pundits
[14:43] {z} what stuff u looking at here 3i?
[14:44] {z} cloud stocks strong today
[14:44] {z} anyone alive?
[14:44] {nemo} crickets
[14:44] {dino} joyg sm l .22
[14:45] {z} in with u dino
[14:46] {dino} stop is .98
[14:46] {z} out
[14:46] {dino} stop, damn
[14:47] {z} no worries, call some more
[14:47] {z} which one of u is the n.e. pats fan?
[14:47] {dino} 07 red, going down
[14:48] {dino} nemo is
[14:50] {dino} joyg sm l .11
[14:51] {z} in .02
[14:51] {z} bigger stop this time?
[14:52] {dino} yes
[14:52] {dino} .31
[14:53] {dino} stop
[14:53] {dino} feels like retest of lod coming
[14:54] {z} back in joyg .75
[14:54] {dino} trades like pulp
[14:55] {z} yea its good i like it
[14:55] {z} you know where you're at real quick
[14:55] {dino} to put it mildly
[14:56] {z} lol true
[14:57] {z} out .10, +.35
[14:58] {z} u ever trade CF dino?
[15:00] {dino} yes
[15:00] {dino} when it was below 100
[15:00] {z} how about IDCC?
[15:01] {dino} yes, put some in kids acct
[15:01] {dino} had a bad overnight on idcc about 6 years ago, 3k shares, opened up -7
[15:02] {z} wow
[15:02] {nemo} took a while to be able to sit down after that one
[15:02] {Threei}  yikes
[15:02] {dino} try not to do that anymore
[15:02] {z} sheesh
[15:02] {dino} trade a lot smaller and usually don't hold.
[15:03] {dino} gj joyg
[15:03] {Threei}  Spot gold extending decline below $1,600; Spot silver below $29/oz; 1-week lows
[15:03] {z} figured it would deadcat somewhere in that .75 area
[15:03] {z} how was the nap 3i?
[15:04] {Threei}  no nap
[15:04] {Threei}  although need it badly
[15:04] {Threei}  just couple urgent phone calls
[15:05] {Threei}  every time I go away for a few days or a week, I try to stay disconnected
[15:05] {Threei}  no internet, no phone
[15:05] {Threei}  it's great, gives me some air..
[15:05] {Threei}  but things tend to accumulate
[15:05] {Threei}  so first couple days upon return are somewhat hectic
[15:06] {z} rimm is nutty, now back in 20.50s
[15:09] {z} AAPL 355s
[15:09] {dino} you took joyg off right?
[15:09] {z} yea in full
[15:10] {z} might take it again
[15:12] {dino} see if mkt lod holds
[15:12] {Threei}  my gut says it won't
[15:12] {nemo} don't think it will if it gets there
[15:12] {nemo} from a multi-time frame POV...alot of air down there
[15:16] {nemo} mmhhhh...IWM bounced here right at monthly S1
[15:20] {nemo} interesting...in this bear phase, the volatility in the 3X etfs is greater
[15:25] {dino} meli, titn, nvda, nxti csh, iwm finishing strong
[15:25] {Threei}  SLW doesn't bounce at all
[15:26] {dino} cmi too
[15:26] {Threei}  even when market does and even with such a decline today
[15:30] {dino} back in ten
[15:40] {RonS} :s
[15:40] {RonS} this volatility is blowing my mind...
[15:43] {Threei}  I don't even know what to say, lol
[15:44] {z} might close up a 100
[15:44] {z} who knows with this mkt
[15:44] {Threei}  I see no news
[15:45] {nemo} IWM bounced right at monthly S1, we're gonna' have a rally for awhile
[15:45] {nemo} tail wagged the dog
[15:45] {Threei}  30 min, 2.5 bucks SPY
[15:48] {Threei}  dino will faint when gets back
[15:49] {Threei}  oh boy
[15:49] {Threei}  look at this crap:
[15:49] {Threei}  Market rebound partly attributed to FT summarizing earlier reports about Euro Zone considering options to prevent a new banking crisis
[15:49] {Threei}  that's all?
[15:49] {Threei}  this is still market moving on hopium if this is the reason
[15:49] {RonS} what a joke...
[15:50] {z} let them jam it up on that BS, makes for a jucier short for us on the way back down
[15:54] {dino} unbelievable 260 pt swing in miutes
[15:54] {dino} minutes
[15:54] {nemo} IWM hit S1 on the monthly and then everything rocketed
[15:54] {nemo} now SPY at pivot on daily
[15:55] {dino} was -200 when i left
[15:55] {nemo} we've done 40% of daily volume on spy in the last .40 minutes
[15:56] {z} 3i did i say up 100?
[15:56] {RonS} omg fcx at 32.00
[15:56] {z} what is the daily prize?
[15:56] {z} :)
[15:56] {dino} like playing guts poker
[15:56] {RonS} nemo, put him in the les hall of fame...
[15:56] {Threei}  lol
[15:57] {nemo} who Z
[15:57] {nemo} ?
[15:57] {nemo} woodshed
[15:57] {RonS} ya
[15:57] {nemo} kerosene
[15:57] {nemo} match
[15:57] {RonS} lol
[15:57] {nemo} padlock on the door
[15:57] {nemo} bring marshmallows
[15:58] {nemo} wow, this is wild
[15:58] {nemo} and I was thinking of going long tna at 27.60
[15:58] {z} yep u should have
[15:59] {nemo} didn't trust my signals...oy vay
[15:59] {dino} z look joyg
[15:59] {nemo} look at everything
[15:59] {z} yea sheesh
[15:59] {z} here goes the cnbc cheer squad
[15:59] {Threei}  ok guys, that was something
[16:00] {Threei}  to see... not really to trade
[16:00] {Threei}  wonders never cease
[16:00] {z} lol
[16:00] {z} that's one way to put it
[16:00] {Threei}  have a great evening
[16:00] {Threei}  see you tomorrow :
[16:01] {larisa} bye :)
[16:01] {dino} gn all. thx for ideas.
[16:02] {z} cya later
[16:02] {dino} i'm out until tuesday the 11th. good luck to you
[16:03] {Threei}  take care dino, have fun'
[16:04] {dino} will do, thx

SPY/IWM Multi-time frame levels for 10/1

Sorry, still haven't got this blog software figured out, anyway....

Here are the weekly pivot point updates for the week of 10/1. I’ve also noted the daily pivot points for monday in there.

All new Quarterly, Monthly, and Weekly pivot points, so the levels have changed. I've also noted a significant "gap up" in the price action that goes back to the Summer '10 bottom. When and if price gets there, it should be interesting.

Oh...those numbers in the price action represent points where the price action interacted with mapped levels. Some have those have changed because of the change of Quarter, but many are still accurate. Mmmmhhhh... 18 points if interaction with these levels last week...think there might be some trades in there....mmmmmmmhhhhhh?????

spy: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=c184be78-15fc-4509-bb79-d2ec3838bb52

iwm: http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=837a1807-24e0-45d4-9733-47d2c143c615

• Pivots in yellow.
• Progressively darker red are progressively longer time frame supports.
• Progressively darker blues are the same for resistance.
• Green fib. retracement fromJuly 2007 high (spy only).
  
• white fib. retracement from March 2009 low.
• Turquoise fib. retracement from July 2010 low.
• Red fib. retracement from most recent( swing low
• My subjective price levels in green

Multi-time Frame Analysis Update

These are my observations for Thursday and Friday. Big updates this weekend, I'll get to at as soon as I can...

Oh, and I had to make an image of the description so the numbers wouldn't resequence...

SVM quick update

Had to do this update on the road, so no screenshots - that'll come on Monday or Tuesday when I am back in the office. Important resistance at $8 is taken, further confirming our double bottom-based swing trade; if we  finish the day above 8, there is not much resistance up to 9 - 9.20. That it happens in a red market is even more reassuring.