May 09 2014

Somewhat tough morning, so the rest of the day has been spent fixing the stops from earlier. Most of the damage was eliminated leaving just a tad in negative.

Session Time: Fri May 09 00:00:01 2014

[08:46] {thomcbell} gm

01[08:52] {@Threei}  morning thom

[09:02] {Phil} gm all

01[09:03] {@Threei}  phil :)

[09:08] {dino} gm

01[09:09] {@Threei}  dino :)

[09:10] {RonS} good morning gents

[09:11] {thomcbell} dino put ubnt on your radar 

01[09:11] {@Threei}  ron :)

[09:11] {thomcbell} think this one might be overdone

[09:12] {dino} on it

[09:13] {thomcbell} they met earnings 

[09:13] {thomcbell} now valuation is pretty reasonable at 22x 

[09:13] {thomcbell} but........

[09:14] {troub} good morning you all

01[09:14] {@Threei}  troub :)

[09:18] {RonS} thom, the ubnt 5 yr daily shows a volume pocket below 30 down to 20, then 14 and 12...pretty scary imo but there is a 21% of float short

[09:21] {thomcbell} thanks 

[09:21] {dino} its just a general tech wreck, destroy them no matter what the earnings

[09:22] {Alexs} gm

01[09:22] {@Threei}  alex :)

[09:22] {dptl} good morning

01[09:22] {@Threei}  dp :)

[09:23] {dino} almost feels like a few tech/momo hedgies are in trouble, dumping shares

01[09:24] {@Threei}  that's most likely what happens

[09:30] {thomcbell} too scary ubnt 

01[09:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break

01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 

[09:31] {ese} gm

01[09:31] {@Threei}  ese :)

01[09:32] {@Threei}  tighten to .64

[09:32] {thomcbell} wow ubnt dino

01[09:33] {@Threei}  out

01[09:33] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .80 break hl

01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 

01[09:34] {@Threei}  stubborn

01[09:35] {@Threei}  nope

[09:35] {dino} tbell, careful w/it, techs getting crushed

[09:35] {thomcbell} im out 

[09:35] {thomcbell} i made money in it now gone 

[09:36] {dino} 3 day rule these

[09:38] {thomcbell} watching syna for short setup 

[09:40] {thomcbell} too wide on syna 

01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  P  .10 break

01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  22 

01[09:43] {@Threei}  valid

[09:43] {thomcbell} panw looking for a short setup 

[09:43] {thomcbell} chart is scary 

01[09:44] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

01[09:45] {@Threei}  shrug

[09:48] {dino} bcei sm l .50

[09:49] {dino} yy sm l .35

[09:50] {thomcbell} i shorted panw small on that spike 

[09:50] {thomcbell} horrid action 

[09:51] {dino} fb sm l .00

[09:51] {dino} panw and data ranging 5 pts last few days

[09:52] {thomcbell} out 

[09:54] {dino} out fb .45, +.45

[09:56] {dino} out yy .57, +1.22

01[09:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break

01[09:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 

01[09:58] {@Threei}  1:1  

01[09:58] {@Threei}  1:2  

01[10:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  65 break

01[10:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .55 

01[10:05] {@Threei}  stop to .59

01[10:06] {@Threei}  what the deuce

01[10:06] {@Threei}  not liking this morning

[10:08] {nemo} kinda' reminds me of Les's thinking

[10:09] {Alexs} Dr Dre - Hip Hop's first Billionaire ( Celebrates With Tyrese ).https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2e5ZibypDk

[10:12] {dino} vwap holding bcei

01[10:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  33 break hl

01[10:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 

01[10:22] {@Threei}  stop .94

[10:22] {RonS} needed to get back to rehab?

[10:24] {joomlab} What does everyone think of GNVC?

[10:24] {ese} not bad for having no talent

[10:29] {dino} nothing

01[10:30] {@Threei}  Eastern Ukraine's vote as a key moment

01[10:30] {@Threei}  must be a joke

[10:30] {ese} i'll say

01[10:31] {@Threei}  as if there is any doubt in the result... I predict 89%

01[10:31] {@Threei}  they made it 93% in Crimea, gotta do a little lower here

01[10:33] {@Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .65 break

01[10:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .75 

[10:33] {Alexs} in fact new ukrainian government does nothing to change that situation

[10:34] {Phil} thing is, staying part of Ukraine is going to mean tough times ahead.. with the IMF imposing austerity and the raise in energy costs, I wouldn't blame them for wanting to go the other way

01[10:34] {@Threei}  that's true but referndum result has not much to do with it

[10:34] {Phil} I think a couple of years down the line, the western Ukrainians may be thinking they made the wrong choice

01[10:35] {@Threei}  there will be any number dictated from Putin's office

01[10:35] {@Threei}  all real polls show majority wanting to stay united Ukraine

[10:36] {Alexs} who makes the real polls Vad?

01[10:36] {@Threei}  quite a few of them were set by many organizations

01[10:37] {@Threei}  most of them impartial and credible

[10:37] {Alexs} who's going to eastern ukraine currently to make a polls?

01[10:38] {@Threei}  over last 2 month, at least dozen was done

01[10:38] {@Threei}  I can find them if you want

01[10:39] {@Threei}  and this government if you can call it that... they can't really do much

01[10:39] {@Threei}  their own army doesn't obey them

01[10:39] {@Threei}  total disarray everywhere

[10:41] {Alexs} it's like russians blame america for everything, the same way do  ukrainians: blame russians for all their problems

[10:42] {Alexs} and nobody do the real job

01[10:42] {@Threei}  true, they elected one thief afdter another for 20 years

01[10:42] {@Threei}  but at this point they are under attack

[10:46] {Alexs} the new prime minister spends all the time in europe even visits Vatican for Canonization he doesn't have a time to fight the attack

01[10:47] {@Threei}  have you seen him?? :)

01[10:47] {@Threei}  geek who for the first time in his life suddenly got 5 min a fame

[10:47] {ese} I don't think cannons are gonna cut it against modern armour and nuclear arsenals

[10:48] {Alexs} ese who's gonna use nuclear arsenals?

[10:49] {ese} Russians of course.....there stupid enough

[10:49] {Alexs} lol ese

[10:49] {dino} fb sm l .88

[10:49] {dptl} lol...man...

[10:50] {Alexs} I hope you are not serious ese

[10:50] {dptl} no more vodka for you Ese...lol

[10:50] {ese} lol

01[10:50] {@Threei}  ese... Putin has two daughters who live in Germany. Think he is about to start bombing Berlin?

01[10:52] {@Threei}  alex, have a look at the latest of polls: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/05/08/new-poll-shows-eastern-ukraines-separatists-are-wrong/?tid=pm_world_pop

[10:52] {ese} Really......two daughters who live internationally and he's dumb enough to do what he's doing......OK Alexis...i can now answer that question....ya he's stupid enough to do it

01[10:53] {@Threei}  how is he stupid?

01[10:53] {@Threei}  he is getting everything he wants, and no one is capable to stop him

[10:53] {ese} that doesn't mean he's smart vad

01[10:53] {@Threei}  have a look ese: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/business/bloomberg-russias-exports-unhindered-by-putins-incursion-into-ukraine-347106.html

01[10:54] {@Threei}  even russia's exports are untouched by "sanctions"

01[10:54] {@Threei}  west continues financing him

01[10:54] {@Threei}  who is tupid, tell me?

[10:56] {ese} a man with complete disregard for the sovernty of another country.....convince me that thats smart......at best half wit intelligence

01[10:57] {@Threei}  you really are using words "evil" and stupid" interchangeably, aren't you?

[10:58] {ese} ya maybe

[10:58] {RonS} Obama has no regard for the sovereignty of the US...so is he in that camp?

[10:59] {ese} in another life he could/can be a serial killer

01[10:59] {@Threei}  ok... can serial killer be smart?

[10:59] {ese} no feelings....no sense of right or wrong

[10:59] {dino} sure

[11:00] {dino} doesn't mean he's dumb

01[11:00] {@Threei}  I am just trying to understand how putin can be stupid, when the whole world so far dances to his tune :)

[11:00] {dino} guy is getting what he wants

[11:01] {dino} i agree w/you vad

[11:01] {dino} stupid ones are the ones who let him get away w/it

01[11:01] {@Threei}  exactly

[11:01] {ese} well there just as stupid for sure

01[11:01] {@Threei}  with all the military and economic might, a guy with sharp elbows keeps them all at bay

[11:01] {ese} their

01[11:02] {@Threei}  I'd say, he outmaneuvered them all by factor 10

[11:02] {dino} ese, just because some "feel" differently than liberals does not make them stupid

[11:03] {dino} actions, not talk, rule the world

[11:03] {Alexs} Vad Pew Research methods in detail http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/05/08/methods-in-detail/

01[11:04] {@Threei}  anything's wrong with them?

[11:04] {Alexs} 1600 people in 13 ukrainian cities you can get any results and it will not be real

01[11:05] {@Threei}  they show pretty much the same results as about 10 others over last 2 months

01[11:07] {@Threei} Long Setup:  P  .10 break

01[11:07] {@Threei}  If holds  22 

[11:07] {Alexs} I think if somebody wants a real results they need to make a real referendum under international supervision

01[11:08] {@Threei}  that's not what is going to take place on this Sun

[11:08] {ese} thats true dino can't deny that.....

01[11:08] {@Threei}  this resuklt is predetermined

[11:10] {Alexs} yes but it's result of international comunity doesn't want to have a real referendum

01[11:10] {@Threei}  why would they? this is not a federation

01[11:11] {@Threei}  orovinces to not have right to separate per Ukraine constitution

[11:11] {RonS} ...just send in Jimmy Carter

[11:11] {Alexs} of course it's better to have a war

01[11:12] {@Threei}  unlike Russian btw... and look what happened to one who wanted to separate

01[11:12] {@Threei}  no,i i'ts better not to invade sovereign country

01[11:12] {@Threei}  you don't really think it's locals who initiate all this unrest?

[11:13] {Alexs} honestly I don't know Vad I don't trust anybody in this conflict

[11:14] {RonS} sheesh, their talking snow for Mother's Day

01[11:14] {@Threei}  well, I have enough friends in many of the cities in the middle of all this

01[11:14] {@Threei}  you sare kidding Ron

[11:14] {RonS} wonder how many thought you were dumb for leaving 3i...

01[11:15] {@Threei}  lol... nah, not many :)

[11:15] {ese} am outa here....have a great weekend all.

01[11:16] {@Threei}  take care ese

[11:16] {ese} cya vad.....hope the people you know over there are all right

01[11:16] {@Threei}  some are... some are not

[11:16] {RonS} how did you get into Canada?...always heard it has relatively tough immigration laws

01[11:16] {@Threei}  it's difficult to be all right in Gorlovka right now

01[11:17] {@Threei}  imagine, you walk out of your apartment to get some bread in the corner store - there a frikin tank on the street

01[11:17] {@Threei}  that's a Hollywood story Ron...

[11:17] {ese} can't imagine that......take care

[11:19] {RonS} omg just looked in the dictionary for the definition of a liberal:  it was posted with a picture of ese  :)

01[11:19] {@Threei}  lol

01[11:19] {@Threei}  in two words (and it's going to be considerably more, but as brief as possible)

[11:19] {_rcford} nice onP

01[11:20] {@Threei}  1/2 p

01[11:20] {@Threei}  1:2  P 

01[11:20] {@Threei}  ran my own business in Ukraine from 1987,

01[11:20] {@Threei}  from the first days of perestroika

01[11:21] {@Threei}  in 1990s mafia started appearing,

01[11:21] {@Threei}  in a few years they started uniting with corrupted police

01[11:21] {@Threei}  so situation became really unbearable,

01[11:21] {@Threei}  leaving you with choices:

01[11:22] {@Threei}  1. mafia will kill you

01[11:22] {@Threei}  2. police will jail you

01[11:22] {@Threei}  3. You became one of them

[11:22] {RonS} understand all that, the q is how and why did Canada let you in?

01[11:22] {@Threei}  none left me delighted,

01[11:23] {@Threei}  so I contacted a guy from our city, business friend, who immigrated to Canada a year before with help of relative living there for many years

01[11:24] {@Threei}  and we started a project - exhibition of Ukrainian companies in Toronto.

01[11:24] {@Threei}  He organized canadian side, I did ukrainian.

01[11:24] {@Threei}  That project gave me multuple entry business visa

01[11:25] {@Threei}  and being in Canada, I applied to business class immigration.

01[11:25] {@Threei}  Canadian security started investigating my background

01[11:25] {@Threei}  and it took 3 years

01[11:26] {@Threei}  meanwhile, I lived in Canada with guest status,

01[11:26] {@Threei}  no right tio work, not right for kids to attend school.

01[11:26] {@Threei}  so the only thing I could do was to tarde

01[11:26] {@Threei}  trade

[11:26] {RonS} wow...good deal...thanks for sharing

01[11:27] {@Threei}  in 3 years CSIS finished their investigation

01[11:27] {@Threei}  said I was no a mafia

01[11:27] {@Threei}  still, my imigrant status was conditional

01[11:28] {@Threei}  and it took 2 more years to fulfill all the conditions

[11:28] {RonS} ...until you could sing Oh Canada?

01[11:28] {@Threei}  that toomk a year more, to gain citizenship :)

[11:28] {troub} they didn't require accurate typing skill?

[11:28] {RonS} lol

01[11:29] {@Threei}  thank goodness, no

01[11:29] {@Threei}  that I'd fail for sure

01[11:29] {@Threei}  here is some light reading for your entertainment:

01[11:29] {@Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/freechapters.html#chapter1

01[11:29] {@Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/freechapters.html#chapter2

01[11:38] {@Threei}  1:3  

01[11:38] {@Threei}  out

01[11:38] {@Threei}  finally something worls

01[11:38] {@Threei}  works too

01[11:39] {@Threei}  Alex... to sum it up briefly

01[11:40] {@Threei}  I have zero sympathy to the guys who ran Ukraine for all this time, and run it now

01[11:40] {@Threei}  but all the problems country have are its problems, Russia's aggression can not be justified by them

01[11:41] {@Threei}  this whole unrest is entirely russian creation

01[11:41] {@Threei}  and country will be broken up as a result of it, while the world looks on

01[11:42] {@Threei}  despite guarantees given to Ukraine in 1994 in exchange for its nukes

[11:42] {Alexs} 100% agree that russian agression can not be justified

[11:42] {dino} azn drop

01[11:42] {@Threei}  and the world will be much worse for it,

01[11:43] {@Threei}  because the message to alll the bad guys is clear

[11:43] {dino} azn smr l .50

01[11:43] {@Threei}  don't trust agreements and gusrantees, don't give up your nukes

01[11:43] {@Threei}  and be bold - west has no guts to enforce its own rules if you just go ahead and do it.

[11:44] {dino} out azn .65, +1.15

01[11:44] {@Threei}  wtg

[11:44] {Alexs} but when you say the whole unrest is entirely russian creation, here it comes again, when they think like that it doesn't help ukranians

[11:44] {dino} ty

01[11:44] {@Threei}  but it is

01[11:45] {@Threei}  it's russian commandos who organize the crews taking over buildings

[11:45] {Alexs} ok what ukranians do to resolve the situation?

01[11:46] {@Threei}  send troops

[11:46] {Alexs} lol

01[11:46] {@Threei}  what else can they do?

01[11:46] {@Threei}  some immediately turn to russian side

01[11:46] {@Threei}  some fight

01[11:46] {@Threei}  what would you do?

[11:47] {Alexs} it doesn't work

01[11:47] {@Threei}  pieces of the country are being yanked from under them

01[11:47] {@Threei}  no it doesn't

01[11:47] {@Threei}  20 years of rampant corruption left people cynical

01[11:47] {@Threei}  not trusting anyone

[11:47] {Alexs} they should forget that their country is not a federation and make a real referendum

01[11:48] {@Threei}  real referndum is not being organized in a week

[11:48] {Alexs} under strict supervision

01[11:48] {@Threei}  not under machine guns

01[11:48] {@Threei}  it requires peace and time

[11:48] {Alexs} yes but they don't want to agree to make the real one

01[11:48] {@Threei}  they have neither

01[11:48] {@Threei}  you think if they agree Putin will pull out?

01[11:48] {@Threei}  lol

01[11:49] {@Threei}  he is determined to resolve this now

[11:49] {Alexs} I don't care about Putin

01[11:49] {@Threei}  he won't wait for a year

[11:50] {Alexs} if they agree to make a referendum he will not have something to say

01[11:50] {@Threei}  but it's because of his actions they have no time or peace to organize anything real

01[11:50] {@Threei}  he is not saying anything... he is tearing country apart

01[11:50] {@Threei}  not waiting for it to consolidate

[11:51] {Alexs} but they have time to make election 

01[11:51] {@Threei}  to gain EU memebrship

[11:51] {dino} putin has disrupters in place no matter the outcome

01[11:51] {@Threei}  I don't see what they can do to stop him alex

[11:51] {thomcbell} pva - 16 long break if holding 15.96 

01[11:52] {@Threei}  they may promise any referendums or whatever, he simply won't stop until he gets what he wants

[11:52] {thomcbell} invalidated - still watching 

[11:53] {Alexs} they made a first mistake when they decided to make election in May and don't want to change anything now

01[11:53] {@Threei}  when should they have election?

01[11:53] {@Threei}  why May is worse than anything else?

[11:54] {Alexs} because you have that situation now

01[11:54] {@Threei}  that date was set right after Yanukovish ousting

[11:54] {Alexs} it was stupid

01[11:54] {@Threei}  what will change if they cancel election?

01[11:54] {@Threei}  it's totally irrelevant

[11:56] {Alexs} I don't agree you can't make a presidential election in 3 month in any civilized country

[11:56] {Alexs} it's like referendum in Crimea no difference

01[11:57] {@Threei}  that wasn't your normal election... snap election can be much faster

01[11:57] {@Threei}  country shouldn't remain wiothout legitimate elected government for too long

[11:57] {Alexs} lol Vad not in that situation

01[11:58] {@Threei}  but it's not even the point... if that was september, what would it change?

01[11:58] {@Threei}  what's the difference?

01[11:58] {@Threei}  would Putin not do what he did?

[11:59] {Alexs} you know Vad it's easy to blame putin for everything but it won't help

01[11:59] {@Threei}  I don't

01[11:59] {@Threei}  I blame him for this invasion

01[11:59] {@Threei}  the rest is ukraine's pown fault

01[11:59] {@Threei}  own

01[12:00] {@Threei}  but right now, this invasion is what tears the country apart

[12:00] {Alexs} ok it's a fact they should move on

01[12:00] {@Threei}  and I don't see how election timing has anything to do with it

01[12:00] {@Threei}  move on where?

01[12:01] {@Threei}  you are running Ukraine right now, what do you do?

[12:01] {Alexs} try to negotiate

[12:01] {Alexs} sending troops doesn't help

01[12:01] {@Threei}  negotiate what? Russia doesn't speak to you

01[12:02] {@Threei}  they don't want to make peace with you

01[12:02] {@Threei}  they eant to break your country by piecers

[12:02] {Alexs} I mean negotiate with eastern Ukraine people first of all

01[12:02] {@Threei}  there is no one to negotiate with

01[12:02] {@Threei}  there is "people's governor"

[12:02] {_rcford} TOUR

01[12:03] {@Threei}  installed by Russia

01[12:03] {@Threei}  with instructuins to set referndum

01[12:03] {@Threei}  and finish it with 89%

[12:03] {Alexs} ok that's a position that killing Ukraine right now

01[12:03] {@Threei}  who are you going to negotiate with?

[12:04] {cosmo} the bankers?

[12:05] {Alexs} have you seen somebody from ukrainian presidential candidates went to eastern ukraine to talk to the people?

01[12:06] {@Threei}  yes, but what do you mean by "people"?

01[12:07] {@Threei}  you can't talk to 4 million living in Donetsk province'

01[12:07] {@Threei}  who exactly will you talk to?

01[12:07] {@Threei}  there is governor

01[12:07] {@Threei}  there is "people's governor"

01[12:07] {@Threei}  one is helpless

01[12:07] {@Threei}  another doesn't want to talk to you

[12:08] {Alexs} who tried

01[12:08] {@Threei}  Tymoshenko

[12:08] {Alexs} lol

01[12:09] {@Threei}  who is not "lol"?

01[12:09] {@Threei}  they are all the same

01[12:09] {@Threei}  front-runner is not much different from her

[12:09] {Alexs} of course he is in Germany currently

01[12:10] {@Threei}  but whoever it is, the question remains: who are you going to talk to?

01[12:10] {@Threei}  walk on the Artema street with megaphone?

[12:11] {Alexs} wnen you are sitting in Germany two weeks to elections and think there's nobody to talk in Ukaine...

[12:12] {thomcbell} ubnt testing the low

[12:12] {thomcbell} what a wild one 

01[12:12] {@Threei}  well, as I asked... [12:01] {@Threei} you are running Ukraine right now, what do you do?

01[12:12] {@Threei}  :)

[12:13] {dino} ubnt gap around 21, but thats a ways away

[12:13] {dino} maybe 30 strike area worth bid

[12:13] {Alexs} go to all the people even "people's governors" and talk to them

01[12:14] {@Threei}  we've been over that already

01[12:14] {@Threei}  the guy is under direct orders

01[12:14] {@Threei}  he is not going to talk to anyone, he is there to fulfill his task

01[12:14] {@Threei}  he has no power to decide anything for anyone

[12:15] {Alexs} ok Vad it's better to travel around Europe and think like that

01[12:15] {@Threei}  you misunderstand alex..

01[12:15] {@Threei}  better or not, it doesn;'t matter

01[12:15] {@Threei}  they are powerless to do anything

01[12:15] {@Threei}  they have no military power to resist, and no one wants to help them. End of story

[12:16] {dino} russia will do as it pleases because they know that nobody will stop them

01[12:16] {@Threei}  right

01[12:16] {@Threei}  let me tell you however what those who are prepared to do something, will actually do

[12:16] {dino} obummer showed them that in syria

01[12:16] {@Threei}  when territory is taken over by Russia, partisan war will start

01[12:16] {@Threei}  just like in WW2

01[12:17] {@Threei}  that is being organized as we speak

[12:18] {Alexs} Russia won't invade eastern Ukraine, if Putin wanted he would do it already

01[12:18] {@Threei}  and not from above... that's grass root resistance

[12:19] {Alexs} he knows that guerilla war will kill him

01[12:19] {@Threei}  if not overtly, how will you call the "referendum," then separation, then union with Russia?

01[12:19] {@Threei}  isn't it invasion by other means?

01[12:20] {@Threei}  Crimea was easy thanks to geography and demographics... Eastern Ukraine is tougher and larger, thus means are different

[12:21] {Alexs} if somebody wants a real referendum they find out what toask a right way

01[12:21] {@Threei}  but the goal is the same - be in union with us, not with EU, and be weak

01[12:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .40 break

[12:22] {Alexs} who's goal?

01[12:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .30 

01[12:22] {@Threei}  russia's

[12:23] {Alexs} ukrainians need to start thinking about their goals

01[12:23] {@Threei}  for that they need invasion to stop

01[12:23] {@Threei}  what goals when country ceases to exist in front of your eyes?

01[12:24] {@Threei}  listen to this:

01[12:24] {@Threei}  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ag4_Dm2YdgU

[12:24] {Alexs} I bet russia won't invade

01[12:24] {@Threei}  it did already

01[12:24] {@Threei}  via commandos

[12:26] {Alexs} there was a lot of people killed, did they find one russian commando?

01[12:26] {@Threei}  come on

[12:26] {Alexs} I diddn't hear about it

01[12:26] {@Threei}  you don't really watch it closely, do you

[12:26] {Alexs} show me the link Vad

01[12:26] {@Threei}  Igor Strelkov?

01[12:27] {@Threei}  name tells you anything?

01[12:27] {@Threei}  phone conversations after shootout under Slavyansk?

[12:28] {Alexs} so what in that conversations?

01[12:28] {@Threei}  one is above

01[12:29] {@Threei}  another, I'll see if I can find... but really, there are dozens of them

[12:30] {troub} DAL valid?

[12:30] {_rcford} Twtr

01[12:30] {@Threei}  DAL, yes

01[12:32] {@Threei}  there you go Alex, start at 3:12 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKElv2p3oS4

01[12:35] {@Threei}  1:1  

01[12:39] {@Threei}  1:2  

01[12:39] {@Threei}  day starts fixing itself

[12:40] {thomcbell} Stupid pva worked 

[12:42] {dino} out fb .32, +.50

01[12:42] {@Threei}  gj

[12:46] {dino} ty

[12:47] {thomcbell} rrc looks like it might bean 87.89 short break if holding 88

[12:49] {nathan} hi gents

01[12:49] {@Threei}  hey nathan

[12:51] {thomcbell} rrc no go

[12:54] {Alexs} I looked the link Vad, I'm sure that you can see a lot of that kind of things about ukrainans on russian propaganda, like Timoshenko conversations

[12:54] {Alexs} she just said she didn't said that

01[12:55] {@Threei}  I am not sure what your point is... are you seriously saying there are no russian instigators in Ukraine and whole uprising is entirely done by locals?

[12:56] {Alexs} No, I'm sure there are a lot of russian istignators in Ukraine now

01[12:56] {@Threei}  that's my point

[12:56] {Alexs} but it's not a real invasion

01[12:57] {@Threei}  it absolutely is

01[12:57] {@Threei}  they stage fake referendum,

01[12:57] {@Threei}  they ask Putin for help

01[12:57] {@Threei}  and he can enter "per law"

01[12:58] {@Threei}  since it's not a sovereign state anymore that doesn't want him

01[12:58] {@Threei}  if you under impression somehow that I am sympathetic to any of ukrainian figures, it's a wrong impression

01[12:58] {@Threei}  some of the names you can see in media I know personally

[12:58] {Alexs} Do you remember Sashko Biliy from right sector he fought in Chechnya against russians so: was it ukrainian invasion

01[12:59] {@Threei}  believe me, they are very very unpleasant guys

01[12:59] {@Threei}  and gals

01[12:59] {@Threei}  come one... he was there on a personal mission, these guys are coordinated from Kremlin

01[12:59] {@Threei}  that's a world of difference

01[13:01] {@Threei}  gas princess Tymoshenko, sheesh... probably second most corrupted after Yanukovich

01[13:01] {@Threei}  and was first before he became president

[13:02] {Alexs} I wouldn't bet so sure about 'right sector' in ukraine, that that guys on a personal missions 

01[13:02] {@Threei}  you mean Kiev sent them to Chechnya?? :)

01[13:02] {@Threei}  that would mean ukrainian invasion

01[13:03] {@Threei}  otherwise, it's him... or his right sector

[13:03] {Alexs} I don't know I just say I'm not sure

01[13:03] {@Threei}  DAL...

01[13:03] {@Threei}  .60 break, looks tempting

01[13:03] {@Threei}  let's do hl this time

01[13:05] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .60 break hl

01[13:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .50 

[13:05] {Alexs} you also can't make a definite conclusions just on youtube 

[13:12] {Alexs} what I wanted to say that ukrainians should try to resolve the situation by dialogs and negotiations if they just think that Putin won and nothing they cand it's bad for them

[13:13] {Alexs} cand = can do

[13:18] {dptl} have a good weekend all...see ya monday

01[13:18] {@Threei}  take care dp

01[13:34] {@Threei}  meh

01[13:35] {@Threei}  watching TZA for pullback

01[13:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .30 break

01[13:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .20 

[13:48] {dino} grub drop

[13:49] {RonS} someone drop the plate?

[13:49] {RonS} step on the bug?

[13:49] {dino} sm l .99

[13:53] {nathan} c'mon tza!

[13:53] {dino} out grub .40 ave, +.41

[13:53] {RonS} gj

[13:53] {dino} ty

[13:54] {nathan} gj

[13:55] {dino} ty

[14:00] {nathan} dino do you ever trade tza, dal,...? or just this trades with this big spreads?

[14:03] {dino} tza, tna, vxx sure. dal if it fits my edge. i will trade anything as long as it fits my edge

[14:04] {dino} most of my trades come from 07 scanner, but if scanners are dead, i go over to other stuff

[14:04] {nathan} ok

[14:05] {dino} tbell ubnt going for 30s

[14:06] {thomcbell} big volume there at 31 level

[14:07] {thomcbell} should have shorted the raymond james defense 

[14:07] {thomcbell} its looking like a 25 dollar stock 

[14:07] {dino} gap around 22

[14:08] {thomcbell} nice miss on this one today 

[14:09] {dino} tech wreck brutal. 25% drop on confirm

[14:11] {thomcbell} and it didnt have the nosebleed valuations of some 

[14:11] {thomcbell} of the rest of them - feye etc 

[14:13] {dino} no mercy

01[14:14] {@Threei}  die already SPY

[14:14] {Alexs} SPY waaited for your order VAD :)

01[14:15] {@Threei}  ahhh

01[14:15] {@Threei}  if I knew I'd give it sooner

01[14:15] {@Threei}  half out

[14:15] {Alexs} you did it many times

01[14:16] {@Threei}  City Of Victoria City Hall has been evacuated as police investigate a suspicious package

01[14:16] {@Threei}  hmmm... is this why ese left early?

[14:16] {RonS} old fish in wrapper?

[14:16] {nathan} lol

01[14:17] {@Threei}  probably not, or this guy would wear gas mask: http://goo.gl/TpxkZ2

01[14:17] {@Threei}  1:1  

[14:21] {Alexs} judging by that guy it's just a postal package

01[14:21] {@Threei}  not likely, it was taped to a mailbox

01[14:21] {@Threei}  kind of unusual way to deliver :)

[14:22] {nathan} dino TEVA

[14:22] {nathan} is that a spike 4 u?

[14:24] {dino} too slow, need fast drop, straight down

[14:32] {_rcford} DRL wow

[14:36] {goinshort} V you still like TZA?

01[14:36] {@Threei}  can't tell

01[14:36] {@Threei}  lost chart configuration

01[14:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break

01[14:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 

01[14:38] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

01[14:38] {@Threei}  for now

01[14:47] {@Threei} Short Setup: P  .60 break

01[14:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .65 

[14:48] {thomcbell} ubnt have a chance here dino with your methodology 

[14:48] {thomcbell} vwap much higher 

[14:48] {thomcbell} or is it roadkill

[14:49] {dino} don't know seems to just be a slow grind lower.

[14:49] {dino} trigger imo is break .00

[14:49] {dino} most likely not playing it today

[14:49] {nathan} well gents, have a nice weekend

[14:49] {nathan} had enough for today

01[14:49] {@Threei}  have a good one nathan

[14:49] {nathan} see you on monday

01[14:50] {@Threei}  P just start working

[14:50] {thomcbell} im long it small 

01[14:51] {@Threei}  or not

[14:51] {RonS} only 8 blocks traded ubnt 195k shares...need some big guys to capitulate...thinkin this goes sub 30 to trigger stops on Monday...if it re-catures maaybe long but looks like fast down to 25, pause then 20

[14:59] {thomcbell} i agree 

[14:59] {thomcbell} lack of blocks was a concern 

[14:59] {thomcbell} how did u get the blocks info 

[14:59] {RonS} on my quote section

[14:59] {RonS} always

[15:00] {thomcbell} on what system?

[15:00] {RonS} like to see blocks that are goldilocks...not too small, not too big

[15:00] {RonS} Fidelity

01[15:01] {@Threei}  thom, right click on T&S

01[15:01] {@Threei}  Filter

01[15:01] {@Threei}  show only sales with Qty

01[15:02] {@Threei}  pick }

01[15:02] {@Threei}  and enter amount of shares

[15:04] {thomcbell} tu

[15:08] {thomcbell} im out ubnt 

[15:08] {thomcbell} made 0.20 cents on the bugger 

[15:08] {thomcbell} it looks finished

[15:08] {thomcbell} lol

[15:13] {goinshort} restesting low

[15:13] {thomcbell} ron do u put it in as greater than 5k 

[15:13] {thomcbell} or more 

[15:15] {RonS} quote has block line with quantity and volume...right now shows ubnt at 9 trades and 210313 shares block traded...changes as trades occur all day

[15:16] {thomcbell} is that on nonko?

[15:17] {RonS} minor feature to me...more interested in sh outstanding, volume ongoing, % float short

[15:17] {RonS} fidelity has their own platform

01[15:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break

01[15:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .30 

01[15:20] {@Threei}  Staff are now returning to work at Victoria City Hall. Suspicious package incident is over.

01[15:20] {@Threei}  yeah, I guess fish that was

[15:20] {dino} most likely a six pack being delivered for happy hour

01[15:21] {@Threei}  or that

01[15:24] {@Threei}  stop to .34

01[15:25] {@Threei}  half out

01[15:25] {@Threei}  .48

01[15:28] {@Threei}  stop .39 for the balance

[15:29] {goinshort} thanks V !

01[15:29] {@Threei}  :)

01[15:29] {@Threei}  not an easy day but we mostly fixed it

[15:29] {goinshort} strange day

01[15:29] {@Threei}  wouldn't mind to get 1:3 on last trade

01[15:30] {@Threei}  but I sense someone up there raising the brow at that

01[15:30] {@Threei}  and saying "say thanks for what you've got and shut up"

[15:30] {dino} oh, you heard that

01[15:30] {@Threei}  lol

01[15:31] {@Threei}  you need to cover the mike

[15:31] {RonS} ya, had a real nice week here...thanks everyone...have a good weekend

[15:31] {goinshort} cya

01[15:31] {@Threei}  have a good one Ron

[15:31] {dino} gj ron

01[15:34] {@Threei}  ok VXX... you chance to shine

01[15:34] {@Threei}  your

[15:34] {Alexs} VXX needs your order Vad

01[15:35] {@Threei}  oh

01[15:35] {@Threei}  sheesh

01[15:35] {@Threei}  {--- early onset of Alzheimer

01[15:35] {@Threei}  VXX, go up, right now!

01[15:35] {@Threei}  SPY, die!

01[15:37] {@Threei}  nope... I am no Kremlin

[15:40] {Alexs} lol

[15:42] {dino} too much excitement, calling it a day, gn all

[15:42] {dino} icpt spike

01[15:42] {@Threei}  yeah

[15:42] {Alexs} gn dino

01[15:42] {@Threei}  thank you all, let's have a nice relaxing weekend

[15:42] {dino} ty,u2

[15:43] {goinshort} u 2 thanks

01[15:43] {@Threei}  over which Ukraine will start breaking down

01[15:43] {@Threei}  see you on Monday :)

[15:44] {Alexs} Ukraine will survive Vad

01[15:44] {@Threei}  not as a whole, I am confident

01[15:45] {@Threei}  will retain parts

01[15:45] {@Threei}  and will lose some

[15:45] {Alexs} without Crimea of course

01[15:45] {@Threei}  that is not even a matter of discussion anymore, lol

01[15:45] {@Threei}  Donetsk, Lugansk, Kharkov

[15:45] {Alexs} everything else will stay in I'm sure

01[15:46] {@Threei}  no way no how

01[15:46] {@Threei}  referndum will be 89%

[15:46] {Alexs} make a bet?

[15:46] {troub} have a good weekend, everyone.

01[15:46] {@Threei}  then they'll announce themselves independent

01[15:46] {@Threei}  demand Kyev to pull out troops

01[15:47] {@Threei}  and if Kiev doesn't do that, as Putin for help

01[15:47] {@Threei}  done, they are not a part of Ukraine anymore

[15:47] {Alexs} Putin will never go to eastern Ukraine he doesn't want guerilla war for himself

01[15:48] {@Threei}  he doesn't have to go there...

01[15:48] {@Threei}  all he needs is a government that dances to his tune

01[15:48] {@Threei}  military plants important to him remain in his supply chain

01[15:49] {@Threei}  and Ukraine is no longer a threat in regard of EU/NATO membership

01[15:49] {@Threei}  that's all he needs

01[15:49] {@Threei}  going there with actual military is last resort

01[15:49] {@Threei}  and he is likely to get what he wants without it

[15:50] {Alexs} it's possible

01[15:50] {@Threei}  whoever is elected on May 25 will be a president of a much smaller country than it is today

01[15:51] {@Threei}  and world will sigh with relief that there is no big war

[15:51] {Alexs} I'm sure the country will be as it is today

01[15:51] {@Threei}  ok... beer bet? :)

[15:52] {Alexs} :) done

01[15:52] {@Threei}  see you Monday

[15:52] {goinshort} I'm just glad its gonna end - I only got 3 cases of Russian standard left!

01[15:52] {@Threei}  lol

01[15:52] {@Threei}  gs... just pray Putin doesn't go further

[15:52] {Alexs} I order you your favorite beer by mail if I lose 

01[15:53] {@Threei}  Moldova, Belarus, Baltic

01[15:53] {@Threei}  that might ruin supply chain

01[15:53] {@Threei}  if he stops at Ukraine, I am sure you'll be fine

[15:53] {goinshort} I'm going shopping

01[15:54] {@Threei}  sanctions will be forgotten in a year

01[15:54] {@Threei}  even those negligible that are in place now

[15:54] {Alexs} btw I can't find some ukrainian vodka here already

01[15:54] {@Threei}  start locating Innis and Gunn, Alex :)

01[15:55] {@Threei}  we never had ukrainian vodka here

01[15:55] {@Threei}  Russian Standard is a staple though

[15:56] {Alexs} there was no problem in Brooklyn with that

01[15:56] {@Threei}  what brand?

[15:56] {Alexs} everything, you name it

01[15:56] {@Threei}  ukrainian I mean

01[15:57] {@Threei}  I don't know new ones

[15:57] {Alexs} oh, Nemiroff pertcovka

01[15:58] {@Threei}  never tried... not sold here

01[15:58] {@Threei}  good?

[15:58] {Phil} thanks Vad, cya guys

01[15:58] {@Threei}  take care phil

[15:59] {Alexs} depends on your taste I like it very much

01[15:59] {@Threei}  mix of sweetness and bitter?

01[16:00] {@Threei}  amber color?

01[16:00] {@Threei}  that's pertsovka I remember...

[16:00] {Alexs} no much sweetness amber color yes

01[16:00] {@Threei}  with little red chili pepper

[16:00] {Alexs} yes

01[16:00] {@Threei}  yeah, just a tad of sweet taste

01[16:01] {@Threei}  unexpected after you see a chili pepper

[16:01] {Alexs} lol

[16:02] {Alexs} ok good night Vad have a good weekend

01[16:03] {@Threei}  you too :)'

May 08 2014

Very nice morning and totally dead afternoon, without any action pick-up even on the last hour. Engaging PPP (profit preservation procedure) helped keep the day profitable

Session Time: Wed May 07 00:00:00 2014
[09:00] {dino} gm
[09:01] {dptl} good morning
[09:17] {troub} good morning
[09:18] {dino} fwiw watching trex, yy, feye, wfm, zu, aegr, tfm
[09:20] {goinshort} morning all
[09:24] {RonS} hi guys
[09:24] {goinshort} hi ron
[09:25] {dino} tfm, sfm off on wfm release
[09:28] {dino} rloc blood
[09:32] {dino} trex smr l .05
[09:35] {Alexs} gm
[09:35] {dino} tfm smr l .52
[09:41] {dino} trex stopping out
[09:48] {thomcbell} panw watching for a short break
[09:49] {dino} trex smr l .75
[09:50] {thomcbell} and there it went
[09:51] {thomcbell} panw
[09:57] {dino} tfm stop to .99
[09:57] {dino} 07 red
[09:59] {dino} yy jan gap fill
[10:00] {dino} out tfm .99, +.47
[10:02] {dino} yy smr l .00
[10:05] {dino} data higher lows/highs
[10:14] {thomcbell} wow
[10:15] {dino} naz -3% in 5 days
[10:23] {dino} lots of stocks are getting destroyed, aegr -13, yy -5, data -4, panw -5, zu -13, wfm -12.....
[10:26] {RonS} aegr sm l 31.10
[10:28] {thomcbell} fslr looks like an interesting setup potentially
[10:29] {thomcbell} not anymore
[10:33] {RonS} out aegr 31.85 +.75
[10:36] {dino} gj
[10:37] {dino} data smr l .15
[10:37] {dino} wide
[11:35] {_rcford} HDY may hit 5$
[11:51] {thomcbell} im long very small scty
[11:51] {thomcbell} tony stark complex reports after the bell tonight
[12:14] {thomcbell} panw 60.60 short break if holding 60.70
[12:20] {thomcbell} invalidated
[12:29] {thomcbell} panw still valid i suppose
[12:29] {thomcbell} very tight level for such a wild stock
[12:33] {thomcbell} panw 1:1
[12:33] {thomcbell} 1:2
[12:34] {thomcbell} 1:3
[12:34] {thomcbell} i didnt get filled
[12:34] {thomcbell} put a 60.57 limit on it
[12:35] {thomcbell} 1:4 if anyone got it
[12:35] {thomcbell} panw still in topping phase compared to splk feye data now etc
[12:42] {thomcbell} what a shame that was a good play panw
[12:52] {thomcbell} panw 1:13
[12:52] {thomcbell} hehe
[13:26] {nathan} whats up gents
[13:26] {RonS} not much
[13:26] {nathan} how was the morning?
[13:27] {RonS} quiet w/ 3i, nemo and then dino gone
[13:27] {nathan} do they stick together? ;-)
[13:29] {RonS} not really...3i out for the day...nemo's attendance has been spotty for a while, and dino just dropped out of sight w/ not even a kma...
[13:30] {nathan} DAL dt?
[13:31] {nathan} invalidated
[13:35] {thomcbell} gn all
[14:20] {nathan} well ron, gn
[14:20] {nathan} see you tomorrow
[14:21] {RonS} cya
[14:56] {dptl} see ya tomorrow all
Session Time: Thu May 08 00:00:00 2014
[08:56] {dino} gm
01[08:57] {@Threei}  morning dino
01[08:57] {@Threei}  not much happened yesterday I see
01[09:02] {@Threei}  (UR) Russia says the reaction from Kiev has called into question the prospects of a dialog between the interim govt and separatists - press
01[09:03] {@Threei}  I thought it was shooting, kidnapping and killing...
[09:06] {RonS} gm, good trip?
01[09:06] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:06] {@Threei}  very
01[09:07] {@Threei}  orchestra of the highest world class
[09:07] {RonS} what did they play?
01[09:08] {@Threei}  Mozart, Shostakovich, Thaikovsky
[09:09] {RonS} always like Shostakovich here...
01[09:09] {@Threei}  I haven't heard that much russian around in ages... almost shocking
01[09:10] {@Threei}  I guess 90% of the public
[09:10] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:10] {@Threei}  and of course two fractions at the entrance, with Ukrainian and Russian flags and leaflets
01[09:10] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:11] {cosmo} russia must be getting popular
01[09:11] {@Threei}  AK-47 always adds popularity
[09:11] {cosmo} I haven't heard that one yet
[09:12] {cosmo} :)
[09:12] {RonS} the few times i have been to Vancouver found it shocking how many chinese are there...
01[09:13] {@Threei}  it's not known as Honkouver for nothing
[09:13] {nemo} and they find it shocking how many white people are there
[09:14] {RonS} of course every time i go shopping here am shocked how many indians are here...
[09:14] {RonS} ain't talking native americans either...
01[09:15] {@Threei}  meanwhile, west continues displaying total misunderstanding of Putin's words and actions
01[09:15] {@Threei}  he says "I ask separatists to postpone referndum"
01[09:15] {@Threei}  west jumps in joy: "he softened his stance, deescalation starts"
01[09:16] {@Threei}  separatists: no
01[09:16] {@Threei}  Putin nods, that was the idea
01[09:16] {@Threei}  to distant himself from them and be able to ay "see, it's not my people, it's ukrainians"
01[09:17] {@Threei}  for west, words indicate thoughts and intentions
01[09:17] {@Threei}  for kgb, words are another kind of weapon
[09:18] {dptl} good morning
01[09:18] {@Threei}  dp :)
[09:20] {Alexs} gm
01[09:21] {@Threei}  alex :)
[09:23] {ese} finally......i get a chance to do some trading
[09:23] {RonS} 3i, is nemo ok?
01[09:23] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:23] {ese} vad ron
01[09:23] {@Threei}  as much as possible...
[09:23] {RonS} hehe...hi ese
[09:24] {ese} 3 shows a week for the next 5/6 weeks with my high school R&B band.....6 shows up to mid june with my rpo band...busy season
[09:25] {ese} pro
01[09:25] {@Threei}  you should have come to Vancouver with me, ese... Spivakov orchestra
[09:26] {ese} now thats sounds cool...what type of orchestra....i've never heard of them
[09:26] {nemo} what Ron?
[09:26] {ese} actually thats not true ...i hve heard of them
01[09:27] {@Threei}  google Moscow Virtuosi
[09:27] {ese} ok
01[09:28] {@Threei}  TWTR trying
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break hl
[09:31] {ese} yes yes.....chamber orchestra.....i have heard recording but never seen....would have been a good show
01[09:31] {@Threei}  yeah right
01[09:31] {@Threei}  too fast
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  C  .80 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[09:34] {ese} nope...can't play them dino spreads....WWV
[09:34] {ese} WWAV
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:35] {_rcford} nice
01[09:35] {@Threei}  ty
01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .85 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:42] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:42] {@Threei}  C balance stop to .84
[09:43] {thomcbell} scty at some point want to short
[09:43] {thomcbell} nothing there yet
[09:44] {nemo} here thom
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  P  .40 break hl
01[09:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:46] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:47] {nemo} scty uptick rule
[09:48] {thomcbell} some nice face ripping going on with it here
[09:48] {nemo} this yesteday's high
[09:48] {dino} fb sm l .80
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:2  C
01[09:50] {@Threei}  slow but sure
[09:51] {goinshort} out C -thanks   took a scalp on P
01[09:51] {@Threei}  nice
01[09:51] {@Threei}  P got away from me
01[09:51] {@Threei}  should have recalibrated it to .30
[09:51] {goinshort} not much there
[09:52] {nemo} @ 200 day IWM almost to 50 day on finnies R1 spy
[09:52] {_rcford} FSLR
[09:52] {_rcford} C still going wow
[09:52] {_rcford} loving that
01[09:52] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:52] {@Threei}  out
[09:52] {nemo} sympathy to scty
01[09:58] {@Threei}  nice entry FB, dino
[10:02] {dino} fb stop to .83
[10:04] {dino} to .94
[10:04] {dino} ty
[10:05] {dino} out fb .95, +1.15
01[10:05] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:05] {RonS} gj
[10:05] {dino} ty
[10:05] {troub} dino, your fb stp .50?
01[10:07] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .90 breask hl
01[10:07] {@Threei}  If holds  58
01[10:09] {@Threei}  meh
[10:10] {nemo} spy so close to 189
[10:10] {nemo} they're gonna screw around up here see if they can push it further for a while
01[10:12] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .55 break
01[10:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:15] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:18] {dino} yy from yesterday stop to .99
01[10:18] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .50 break
[10:18] {dino} out .95, +1.95
01[10:18] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
[10:20] {dino} amed spike
[10:21] {_rcford} Yes Sir on DAL
[10:21] {_rcford} ty
[10:22] {ese} L twtr .89
01[10:22] {@Threei}  would like more than 5 cents...
[10:23] {ese} me too
01[10:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
01[10:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[10:28] {@Threei}  1:1  TZA
[10:29] {ese} twtr should break above32 and go for a bit imo
[10:29] {ese} tha 15min chrt looks great
01[10:30] {@Threei}  (US) Fed Chair Yellen: Fiscal policy has served as a drag on the economy, expecting drag to subside somewhat in 2014 - Senate testimony Q&A- long run sustainability of fiscal policy is important - crisis atmosphere has increased business uncertainty - will maintain accomodative policy for as long as necessary, will be in place until labor market recovery; still a ways way from full employment
01[10:30] {@Threei}  wow... ultraleft Yellen dislikes Obama's fiscal policy?
01[10:31] {@Threei}  sher means he taxed too much or little?
[10:31] {ese} out twtr ½ .12
[10:31] {ese} +.23
01[10:32] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:32] {ese} balance to break even .90
[10:32] {ese} tks
[10:33] {ese} stopped twtr balance
[10:33] {ese} bastard
[10:34] {ese} ya right......now take ya peice ah crap
01[10:35] {@Threei}  1:2  TZA
[10:35] {ese} take off
[10:40] {_rcford} FSLR really strong
[10:41] {ese} twiiiiiitttttaaaaahhhhhh ya piece off crap......stop me out even then take off....i'll get even......this is revenge....look out
[10:43] {RonS} powr to the short people
01[10:43] {@Threei}  FSLR is tough to control risk, requires smaller shares and wider stop
01[10:43] {@Threei}  lol ron
01[10:44] {@Threei}  1:1  DAL
01[10:44] {@Threei}  finally, sheesh
[10:44] {ese} you thinkin mrkt top Ron
[10:44] {RonS} no ese look chart powr
[10:45] {RonS} ipas and they all did
[10:45] {ese} ouuuu ya.......that 11 dollar hair cut would hurt
01[10:46] {@Threei}  1:2  DAL  is close enough
01[10:46] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
[10:47] {ese} have seen worse Q's ron.....sheesh...take about punishment
[10:47] {ese} talk
01[10:47] {@Threei}  out TZA in full
01[10:47] {@Threei}  +.25
[10:49] {RonS} ande fell off mountain
01[10:49] {@Threei}  ron in a good shape today :)
[10:50] {RonS} needed nemo around...can hear the groans all the way here...
01[10:50] {@Threei}  closed last piece DAL on a trail
01[10:50] {@Threei}  nice day shapes up
01[10:51] {@Threei}  let's engage profit preservation procedure, not to let it evaporate in afternoon seesaw
01[10:56] {@Threei}  rcford... any questions after going over material?
[10:57] {_rcford} Just need to learn how to read level II
[10:57] {_rcford} So I am looking at his video plus youtube stuff to learn that
01[10:58] {@Threei}  video course has details on that
[10:58] {_rcford} Love the way this works so I will be onboard
01[10:58] {@Threei}  and be carweful, there is a lot of musinformation on level 2 out there
01[10:59] {@Threei}  all kinds of gurus teaching how to read direction by it
[10:59] {_rcford} awesome I will study the course here for 497 I think  I also  got the book on Sunday
01[10:59] {@Threei}  which is total bs
01[10:59] {@Threei}  cool beans, that will cover a lot of ground
[10:59] {nemo} yeah, and since HFT came into vogue, LII reading ain't what it used to be
01[11:00] {@Threei}  not that it ever was all it was cranked up to be
01[11:00] {@Threei}  but it used to be a bit more informative... in late 90s, lol
[11:00] {nemo} levels were more definitive before
[11:00] {_rcford} Yeah I only want what I saw you do today.
01[11:02] {@Threei}  also, since I mentioned profit preservation procedure, let me find url for that
01[11:02] {@Threei}  http://blog.realitytrader.com/2011/10/profit-how-do-you-handle-it.html
[11:03] {ese} cya all tomorrow......gotta go
[11:03] {_rcford} ok awesome
01[11:03] {@Threei}  take care ese
[11:09] {dino} yy smr l .00
[11:16] {_rcford} I will be sure to do what that article says cause I have done the 1st paragraph far to many times
01[11:16] {@Threei}  we all have
01[11:17] {@Threei}  some things in trading like in teens age... everyone've done it
[11:17] {_rcford} lol absolutely
01[11:21] {@Threei} Long Setup:  P  .30 break hl
01[11:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[11:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: P  23 break
01[11:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[11:41] {@Threei}  YESSS!!!
01[11:41] {@Threei}  EU and US draw new red line on Ukraine
01[11:41] {@Threei}  hoorraaay
[11:41] {Alexs} full lot?
[11:41] {nemo} yeah, they crossed it off
01[11:42] {@Threei}  depends on your particulars in profit preservation procedure, alex
01[11:42] {@Threei}  aka PPP
01[11:47] {@Threei}  ok, I read the article about red line in details, and exaltation of mine knows no limits... know what they'll do if Russdia crosses that new red line? More SANCTIONS!
01[11:49] {@Threei}  no go P
[11:56] {dino} out yy .48, +.48
01[11:57] {@Threei}  wtg
[11:57] {dino} ty
[12:01] {troub} nice yy dino
[12:03] {thomcbell} scty looks vulnerable to profit taking
[12:03] {thomcbell} not doing it
[12:03] {thomcbell} no setup
[12:03] {thomcbell} unless you like 0.50 cent spikes
01[12:06] {@Threei}  I do... but only if they are in my favor
[12:08] {thomcbell} lvs big consolidation pattern here
[12:18] {thomcbell} maybe short a test of 77 on lvs
01[12:18] {@Threei}  tough one
[12:19] {thomcbell} i did the break of 77 but it was an aggressive entry
01[12:39] {@Threei}  one of the anchors from the Vancouver's concert: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hRQSWKlV2Q
[12:47] {_rcford} Can't believe P went anyway wow
01[12:48] {@Threei}  yeah
[12:52] {thomcbell} lvs
[12:53] {thomcbell} worked
[12:53] {thomcbell} i was too tight with my stop
01[12:54] {@Threei}  mrket drop helped it
01[12:55] {@Threei}  watching TZA for pullback
[13:00] {thomcbell} just for a chop mpel 33.09 long break if holding 33
[13:01] {thomcbell} tlt?
[13:03] {thomcbell} nope
[13:03] {thomcbell} mpel sorry
[13:15] {nemo} see that tlt move?
01[13:17] {@Threei}  (UR) Ukraine claims its border personnel have repelled an attack from separatists
[13:27] {dino} yy smr l .82
[13:30] {thomcbell} aal very good daily chart
[13:30] {nathan} hi genst
01[13:30] {@Threei}  hey nathan
01[14:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .25 break
01[14:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[14:27] {@Threei}  meh
[14:27] {nathan} aaah
01[14:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .70 break
01[14:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[14:42] {@Threei}  frikin TZA/// rinsed
[14:42] {nemo} market new lows
01[14:42] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[14:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .60 break
01[14:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[14:47] {@Threei}  can't watch TZA without deep disgust for humanity
[14:47] {_rcford} lol
01[14:47] {@Threei}  :)
[14:47] {nathan} lol
[14:47] {_rcford} mkt may flush so
[14:48] {dptl} see ya tomorrow all
01[14:49] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[14:49] {@Threei}  change DAL entry to .55 break
01[14:49] {@Threei}  if holds .50 of course
[14:51] {_rcford} TZA short
01[14:54] {@Threei}  half out
01[14:54] {@Threei}  .63
01[14:55] {@Threei}  stop to .54
01[14:55] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:55] {thomcbell} everything so jumpy these days
01[14:55] {@Threei}  Merkel calls on Putin to further de-escalate situation in Ukraine's east and south
01[14:55] {@Threei}  further?
[14:55] {goinshort} thanks V - took the scalp  spy to choppy
01[14:55] {@Threei}  yw
01[14:56] {@Threei}  no seriously... "further??"
01[14:56] {@Threei}  let's get 5 people a day killed instead of 10?
01[14:57] {@Threei}  alter your vacation plans folks:
01[14:57] {@Threei}  United States warns its citizens to defer all non-essential travel to Ukraine
01[14:57] {@Threei}  I know you all dreamt of spending your vacation in Crimea
01[14:58] {@Threei}  and Alex told me he wanted to go to Donetsk and work in one of coal mines for couple weeks, for kicks
[14:58] {RonS} that Alex is such a stud
[14:58] {nathan} lol
01[15:01] {@Threei}  but a week-long course for bartenders "Mixing Molotov Cocktail the Right Way, Shaken Not Stirred" is still on in Slavyansk
[15:02] {nathan} i never took this subject at school,
[15:02] {nathan} it may be interesting :-)
01[15:03] {@Threei}  so, this is a chanceto expand your horizons
[15:03] {nathan} if trading fails..
01[15:06] {@Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .30 break
01[15:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[15:18] {nathan} gn gents
[15:18] {nathan} see u tomorrow
[15:18] {_rcford} p was the trade of the day wow
[15:26] {goinshort} thanks all -cya tomorrow !
01[15:26] {@Threei}  take care gs
01[15:32] {@Threei}  strange afternoon, no acceleration
[15:33] {cosmo} the day is young
01[15:34] {@Threei}  hmmm
06[15:35] * @Threei wants cosmo to be the one who evaluates his, Threei's age group belonging
[15:35] {thomcbell} swn 45,75 long break if holding 45.70
[15:36] {cosmo} age group wha?
[15:36] {thomcbell} scalping rules
01[15:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .30 break
01[15:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[15:37] {thomcbell} gn all
01[15:37] {@Threei}  bye thom
01[15:37] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[15:38] {cosmo} ah... must be something about acceleration I don't understand
[15:39] {RonS} that's what the Yugo said...
01[15:39] {@Threei}  lol
[15:45] {RonS} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZzKUt4OtE8
01[15:53] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:53] {@Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow

May 06 2014

Nice day with good morning, questionable early afternoon and a few strong trades in late afternoon making it positive again. Shorting P was especially nice, with two juicy trades.

There won't be a log tomorrow as room flies pilot-less.

Session Time: Tue May 06 00:00:00 2014
[09:01] {Phil} morning all
01[09:01] {@Threei}  morning phil
[09:03] {dino} gm
01[09:04] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:06] {troub} good morning all
01[09:06] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:10] {dino} yy odd
[09:12] {Alexs} gm
01[09:13] {@Threei}  alex :)
[09:20] {dptl} good morning
01[09:22] {@Threei}  sp :)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  s=d
[09:25] {RonS} gm
01[09:25] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  watching AIG for pullback entry
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .60 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  ummhhh
01[09:32] {@Threei}  a little bit beyond human capabilities
01[09:32] {@Threei}  grrr... 1:3
01[09:32] {@Threei}  I mean 1:5
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:39] {dino} yy smr l .42 pulp
[09:39] {dino} emes spike
[09:40] {dino} stop yy -.30
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:2  TZA  close enough
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:42] {dino} crzo spike
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .40 break hl
01[09:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:43] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:44] {@Threei}  desicion to exit TZA was timely, would hate to let it slip it away after touching 1 cent shy of 1:2
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1"4
01[09:48] {@Threei}  out
01[09:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .45 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:49] {dino} yy gap fill
[09:50] {dino} smr l .60, pulp
01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:56] {thomcbell} looking for long setup on arrs
01[09:56] {@Threei}  Kyiv cancels May 9 parade, demonstration to avoid provocations
[09:57] {Alexs} may be they don't consider that as a holiday any more?
01[09:57] {@Threei}  they do
01[09:58] {@Threei}  there are a lot of indications that it's going to turn into another bloodbath
01[09:59] {@Threei}  *(US) MAY IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 45.8 V 47.9E
[10:00] {dino} db hl l .60
[10:00] {thomcbell} twtr oh how they can fall
[10:01] {thomcbell} but 35.01 long break if holding 34.90
01[10:01] {@Threei}  just started watching it too :)
[10:04] {thomcbell} 1:1
[10:04] {thomcbell} thing is wildly volatile
[10:04] {thomcbell} hit 1:2
[10:04] {thomcbell} for a nano
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
[10:06] {Alexs} nice call tbell
[10:06] {dino} gj
01[10:06] {@Threei}  If holds  111
[10:06] {dino} yy trouble taking 58.90
[10:07] {thomcbell} thats all twtr had
01[10:08] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:10] {@Threei}  rinse
01[10:11] {@Threei}  grrr
[10:14] {dino} giddy-up yy
[10:17] {RonS} nus hung
[10:19] {Phil} petm could be bottoming into daily support
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .70 break
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[10:21] {dino} trex
01[10:21] {@Threei}  Yahoo! Inc Sources say Yahoo likely to sell 208M shares of Alibaba in the IPO offering - CNBC- Reminder: Yahoo holds a 24% equity interest while Softbank holds roughly 35%.
01[10:22] {@Threei}  let's tighten FB to .64
01[10:22] {@Threei}  a bit too heavy for my taste
01[10:22] {@Threei}  half out
01[10:22] {@Threei}  stop .69
[10:23] {dino} trex smr l .01
01[10:23] {@Threei}  closed
[10:26] {dino} yy 60 wall
[10:27] {dino} "tear down that wall"
01[10:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[10:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:34] {RonS} took db 42.50 out 42.75 +.25 thanks dino
01[10:34] {@Threei}  gj
01[10:34] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .35 break
01[10:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
[10:46] {RonS} wow twtr -10%
01[10:46] {@Threei}  yeah
01[10:46] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:46] {RonS} lockup expired...
[10:47] {RonS} i think it was 400 million shares...lol
01[10:48] {@Threei}  then they have ways to go still, lol
01[11:04] {@Threei}  watching TZA for pullback entry
01[11:13] {@Threei}  ideally from under .50
[11:15] {_rcford} How does this work
[11:15] {_rcford} anyone else around calling plays
01[11:15] {@Threei}  else?
01[11:16] {@Threei}  please read a gtrading log for a day to see how it works. Yeasterday:
01[11:16] {@Threei}  http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2014/05/may-05-2014.html
01[11:17] {@Threei}  and http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/#instructions
[11:18] {_rcford} awesome
[11:18] {dino} welcome rcf
01[11:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .30 break hl
01[11:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
[11:20] {_rcford} Thanks dinp
[11:20] {_rcford} dino
01[11:22] {@Threei}  stop to .19
[11:22] {dino} trex to .15
[11:23] {dino} out trex .16, +1.15
01[11:23] {@Threei}  wtg
[11:23] {dino} ty
01[11:25] {@Threei}  meh
[11:26] {thomcbell} twtr horrendous action
01[11:28] {@Threei}  missed .50 TZA
[11:33] {dino} yy smr l .64
01[11:33] {@Threei}  AIG, watching for bounce
[11:35] {dino} aig gap show 48.61 area
[11:35] {thomcbell} 50.45 is 50sma
01[11:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .65 break
01[11:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[11:41] {@Threei}  double bottom in the making
[11:41] {thomcbell} are u in Vad?
01[11:41] {@Threei}  not yet
[11:41] {thomcbell} or hasnt triggerd yet ?
01[11:42] {@Threei}  hasn't triggered
[11:42] {thomcbell} feels like one more flush
01[11:42] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:42] {@Threei}  waiting for another setup
01[11:43] {@Threei}  valid again
01[11:44] {@Threei}  stop .54
01[11:44] {@Threei}  target 1:2
[11:45] {thomcbell} feye earnings after the bell looking for a long setup here
[11:45] {thomcbell} getting tattoed right now
[11:47] {thomcbell} bought small feye
01[11:47] {@Threei}  things slowed to a crawl
01[11:48] {@Threei}  watch morning profits guys, don't let them evaporate
01[11:49] {@Threei}  no go
01[11:51] {@Threei}  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday it would be "unusual" to hold a presidential election in Ukraine while the army was being deployed
01[11:52] {@Threei}  but Crimea referendum was OK
01[11:52] {@Threei}  lol
[11:54] {Alexs} he never admited that russian troops were deployed in Crimea
01[11:54] {@Threei}  Putin did afterwards
01[11:54] {@Threei}  in TV marathon
[11:55] {Alexs} oh yeah? missed it
01[11:55] {@Threei}  yeah... "we had to make sure voters felt safe"
[11:56] {Alexs} but actually there wasn't bloodshed in Crimea
01[11:57] {@Threei}  not much anyway
[11:58] {troub} AIG again?
01[11:58] {@Threei}  can't tell... jellyfish action
01[11:58] {@Threei}  no drive
01[12:07] {@Threei} Short Setup: AIG  .50 break
01[12:07] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[12:08] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:13] {dino} gj and lol on "jellyfish action"
01[12:14] {@Threei}  :)
[12:16] {thomcbell} now im getting interested in aig
[12:16] {thomcbell} 50.44 break
[12:16] {thomcbell} if holding 50.35
01[12:18] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .55 break
01[12:18] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
[12:18] {thomcbell} invalid aig
[12:18] {thomcbell} still watching
01[12:18] {@Threei}  1:2  AIG  close enough
01[12:18] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[12:21] {@Threei}  Ukraine football matches relocated after Odessa violence
01[12:21] {@Threei}  to where, moon?
01[12:22] {@Threei}  UK foreign secretary to visit Kyiv on May 6-7
01[12:23] {@Threei}  right, gotta see it before bombs start falling
01[12:25] {@Threei}  stop to .49
01[12:25] {@Threei}  TZA I mean
01[12:25] {@Threei}  AIG is of course at .41
01[12:26] {@Threei}  1:3  AIG
01[12:26] {@Threei}  my a$$ is out
[12:26] {Phil} nice trade thanks
01[12:26] {@Threei}  :)
[12:27] {dino} gj
01[12:27] {@Threei}  good to be direction-agnostic
01[12:27] {@Threei}  looked long until it started looking short
01[12:37] {@Threei}  meh TZA
[12:40] {thomcbell} out feye
[12:40] {thomcbell} made a bit
01[12:41] {@Threei} Short Setup: P  .20 break
01[12:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[12:47] {@Threei}  annoying aftrenoon
[12:48] {Phil} qtww potentially interesting, but volatile
06[12:55] * @Threei hits P over the head with 2x4
01[12:56] {@Threei}  QTWW Weakness being attributed to competition concerns on new JV between Hexagon and Agility Fuel Systems
01[12:57] {@Threei}  stop to .26
01[12:58] {@Threei}  Pandora Albert Fried reiterates Underweight rating, price target cut to $20 from $23- Firm continues to believe Pandora faces a significant growth rate decline and they think investors need to depart the bus and seek alternate modes of transportation.
01[12:58] {@Threei}  hmmm... 20 today would be nice
01[12:59] {@Threei}  but the guy with last name Fried doesn;t inspire me as far as his market calls go
[12:59] {goinshort} LOL
[13:00] {RonS} hilarious...do hope you know it's pronounced freed...
[13:00] {Phil} lol
01[13:01] {@Threei}  anyone but him pronounces it that way?
[13:02] {RonS} anyone who has been around jews named Fried...one was a frat brother of mine...
[13:02] {Phil} knew a guy whos surname was slaughter, said is was like laughter with an s lol
[13:02] {RonS} rotflol
01[13:02] {@Threei}  hehe
01[13:02] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:04] {@Threei}  what can I say... there are some pronouncing putin as hitler... so I guess anything is a fair game
01[13:06] {@Threei}  I also know a guy right in this room who pronounces bread as beer
01[13:06] {@Threei}  guess his name
01[13:07] {@Threei}  hint:
01[13:07] {@Threei}  this is how his walk in the woods looks
01[13:07] {@Threei}  https://scontent-a-sea.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/t1.0-9/10297708_246849948834045_805647140746268106_n.jpg
[13:07] {goinshort} lol
[13:08] {dino} qtww hl l .25
01[13:12] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:12] {@Threei}  hmmm... who knows... maybe Fried is right
[13:12] {RonS} wish nemo was here...he would remeber a guy named Fried who brought the word payola to the US...
06[13:13] * @Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a large trout
[13:13] {nemo} vaguely remember but I forgot the story
[13:13] {nemo} sorry guys preoccupied here
[13:13] {RonS} guy was the no 1 dj at the top radio station in nyc...took pay for play bribes from the record companies and got busted for it
[13:14] {dino} you mean playola
[13:14] {RonS} defer to nemo still think it was payola or payolla...
[13:14] {dino} these afternoons are slow, going to be a long summer
[13:15] {dino} bustin' ya ron, $ for play
[13:15] {nemo} Fed outlawed volatility
[13:15] {RonS} but just think of all the cultural education we can get into  :)
[13:17] {RonS} how about this?  how did "ola" come into use?
[13:17] {dino} aztec term meaning cola
[13:17] {RonS} he don't know shit from "Shinola"
[13:18] {RonS} ...the boot blacks in nyc started mixing horse crap with a shoe polish mane Shinola...in order to stretch it...
[13:18] {RonS} named
[13:22] {_rcford} jjlk
[13:23] {dino} qtww to b/e
[13:29] {dino} qtww hl l .10
01[13:30] {@Threei}  covered P in full
01[13:31] {@Threei}  Fried's right
01[13:31] {@Threei}  frikin TZA rinsed us
01[13:33] {@Threei}  Two years after his election as French president, François Hollande's popularity is at record lows with 20% approval rate.
01[13:43] {@Threei}  nice day but TZA that got away irritates
01[13:48] {@Threei}  rcford... any questions after reading help materials and observing some (admittedly slow) action?
[13:50] {_rcford} Not at this time just gonna study tonight and hopefully understand the .55 if it holds .40 etc
01[13:50] {@Threei}  oh, that's easy
[13:50] {_rcford} didn't understand that part but otherwise I think I will catch on
01[13:50] {@Threei}  enter on .55 break, place stop under .40
[13:51] {_rcford} Oh ok awesom
01[13:51] {@Threei}  this part is explained in details at http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/#instructions
[13:51] {_rcford} opened it and will study it
[13:52] {_rcford} Thanks
01[13:52] {@Threei}  btw guys, reminder, I am not here tomorrow
01[13:52] {@Threei}  you are on your own, don't lose money, don't beat up on new guys and don't kill nemo
[13:52] {dino} half vday for me tomorrow, tee time at noon
01[13:53] {@Threei}  other than that, anything goes
[13:53] {RonS} Les running the room?
[13:53] {Phil} lets have a party
06[13:53] * nemo racks the slide
01[13:53] {@Threei}  whoever want kickin privileges, I can pass them on for the day (except nemo)'
01[13:54] {@Threei}  I have a rare meeting with art this evening, unique event... and it's in Vancouver, won't be able to return before tomorrow
[13:55] {RonS} must be a nice guy...
01[13:55] {@Threei}  who?
[13:55] {dptl} where?
[13:55] {RonS} art
01[13:55] {@Threei}  lol
01[13:56] {@Threei}  my first version of the phrase was: meeting with beautiful
01[13:56] {@Threei}  then I realized what gates this opens
01[13:57] {@Threei}  dp, http://www.chancentre.com/whats-on/moscow-virtuosi-vladimir-spivakov-35th-anniversary-tour
01[13:58] {@Threei}  (I assume this is what you meant when asked "where" instead of {RonS} must be a nice guy...)
01[13:58] {@Threei}  (not that there is anything wrong with that)
01[13:59] {@Threei}  someone make me shut up...
[13:59] {dptl} oh i see..i didt know he is here...thats in ubc
01[13:59] {@Threei}  yes
06[13:59] * dino slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
01[13:59] {@Threei}  thank you dino
[13:59] {dino} anytime
[13:59] {dptl} where are you staying ?
01[14:00] {@Threei}  friends near ferry terminal
01[14:01] {@Threei}  thought of visiting you but it will be really late when concert is over, and back on early morning ferry... would be just disturbing your plans without chance to catch up
01[14:01] {@Threei} Short Setup: P  .90 break
[14:01] {dptl} i see..:)...next time then
01[14:02] {@Threei}  If holds  23
01[14:02] {@Threei}  yeah, shishkebab time is around the corner
01[14:02] {@Threei}  let's see if this well is exhausted
[14:06] {dino} qtww stop .98 -.12
01[14:07] {@Threei}  hal out
01[14:07] {@Threei}  stop .91
[14:09] {dino} data sm l .88
01[14:09] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:09] {@Threei}  power of a trend...
01[14:10] {@Threei}  down 8%, and there is still potential for more shorting
[14:11] {_rcford} WOW nice
[14:11] {_rcford} on P
01[14:11] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:12] {goinshort} thanks V!  took the 1:2
01[14:12] {@Threei}  yw
01[14:17] {@Threei}  Self-proclaimed governor of Luhansk region preparing for referendum on self-determination on May 11
[14:24] {dino} out data .68, +.80
01[14:27] {@Threei}  wtg
[14:29] {dino} ty
01[14:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .05 break
01[14:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[14:35] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[14:36] {RonS} wow 40% qtww outstanding has traded
[14:36] {RonS} or maybe 4% 10 times...
[14:37] {dino} more like the 4%x10
[14:40] {dino} qtww l .50 break
01[14:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  18 break
01[14:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[15:05] {dino} qtww to .63
[15:05] {dino} out, +.13
01[15:17] {@Threei}  no go
[15:21] {dino} 07 green
[15:29] {RonS} dino to kids:  look at qtww chart...your dad made money long...now you know that its good being a leprechan  :)
01[15:30] {@Threei}  lol
[15:30] {dptl} see ya tomorrow all
01[15:30] {@Threei}  take care dp
[15:30] {dino} lol ron
[15:31] {dino} about even on it for the day, one stop flat, one stop -.12, and one gain +.13
[15:33] {dino} news says that its biggest custonmer (45% of business last year), just partnered w/competitor.
[15:34] {dino} taking some yy overnight
01[15:34] {@Threei}  QTWW Weakness being attributed to competition concerns on new JV between Hexagon and Agility Fuel Systems
[15:46] {Phil} thanks Vad, have a good trip. Bye all
01[15:47] {@Threei}  thank you all
01[15:47] {@Threei}  have a great evening, see you Thu
[15:47] {dino} have fun vad
01[15:47] {@Threei}  ty
[15:53] {dino} calling it a day, gn

May-June 2014 Outlook: From Russia with Love

TradeTheNews.com  May-June 2014 Outlook: From Russia with Love

The early part of the year has been spent digesting the outsized market moves of 2013. Equity , currency and commodity markets have mostly moved sideways, held up by slowly improving global economic data, but capped by seasonal weakness and harsh winter weather in the US, as well as headline risk from the Ukraine crisis.

Russia's annexation of the Crimea was this year's first big surprise event, and markets are still considering how to treat the situation. As Russian President Putin decides whether to further exert his influence on his neighbors, pundits are guessing at how far he will go and how much economic damage resulting sanctions will cause. So far markets have been quite stable other than the periodic knee-jerk reaction to Ukraine headlines, but if the situation escalates, it could distract from the efforts to stoke the fledgling economic recovery and to stave off deflation in developed economies.

Russian Winter or Spring Offensive?

More sanctions on Russia, not to mention the reenactment of Soviet-era imperialism, would be damaging to Europe. The continent's economic recovery is as fragile as a Faberge egg, and low single digit growth expectations could be tipped back toward contraction if Russia brushes aside western objections to territorial expansion. Even the German economic engine, which has led Europe toward recovery, could be damaged by a trade spat with Russia.

In the US, for the entire first quarter economists and companies have been blaming poor growth on the unusually harsh winter weather. Relentless snow storms across the country kept shoppers out of stores, hampered outdoor businesses like homebuilding, and delayed deliveries heavy industrial equipment by truck and by rail. Economic data got a pass for the entire season, culminating in the advance Q1 GDP coming in at a piddling 0.1% growth rate, missing expectations by more than a percentage point. That big miss has been brushed aside based on optimism for the rest of the year, and it is true that the Q1 GDP figure may be bolstered when the second and third revisions, using more complete data, come out in late May and late June.

So far the April economic data has been good enough to keep alive the narrative that the winter paralysis has ended and better times are around the corner. The headline numbers from the April employment report were stellar, showing the best nonfarm payrolls gain in over two years (+288K), and unemployment dropping an astounding four-tenths of a percent to 6.3%, its lowest level since before the financial crisis. Those data justify the Fed maintaining course on its tapering plan, and shifting its policy back toward the more standard qualitative guidance, having withdrawn its 6.5% unemployment threshold just in time to avoid difficult questions about what jobless level would trigger a rate hike.

Hidden inside the headline unemployment data, like a Russian nesting doll, were some unsettling undercurrents. A closer look revealed much of the drop was caused by another decline in the labor force participation rate, slipping to its lowest level since 1978, when women were less likely to be part of the formal workforce (the male participation rate is at a record low for the modern era). The White House Council of Economic Advisors suggest the participation rate is subject to volatility and is also naturally weighed on by demographic trends, but some economist note that the unemployment rate would still be closer to 10% if the participation rate were more stable. Should the unemployment rate drop continue to be fueled by people leaving the workforce, it is sure to raise doubts about the quality of the US economic recovery.

China's slowing growth trajectory has been a fact of life for several years, but it could start grabbing headlines again if certain trends continue. The nation chalked up a 7.4% GDP growth rate in Q1 as employment and income growth held up well, but it was still a notable drop from the 7.7% rate achieved in the prior quarter and the slowest pace in year and a half. The cooling of the Chinese property market is contributing to this slower growth. New property construction had its worst Q1 since 2009, and the total value of properties sold slid year over year, confirming anecdotal reports of a real estate correction in some smaller cities.

China's atrocious March trade data is another worrisome sign. After blaming an unusual February trade deficit on the Lunar New Year holiday, Chinese officials had a harder time explaining away March exports down 6.6% and imports down 11.3% when a mid-single digit increase was expected for both. Some analyst believe the discrepancy is related to Chinese firms fudging invoices to exaggerate exports and bring capital into China to take advantage of the rising yuan early last year. The customs administration has since cracked down on fraudulent invoicing, creating a difficult comparison for Q1 trade data. However, a third straight month of poor trade readings on May 8th could set off alarm bells.

Chinese officials insist these transitory data do not merit a major policy response. Summarizing the official view, Premier Li Keqiang recently stated that China "will not adopt short-term and strong stimulus policies in response to temporary fluctuations in the economy," but instead "will focus more on healthy growth in the medium to long term and will make efforts to achieve sustainable and healthy development." More negative data could change the minds of economic planners in Beijing, however, and raise hopes for a 'mini-stimulus' package.

Central Planning

Better global growth may lead to a pick-up inflation, which is the desperate desire of central bankers in developed economies. With economies in recovery mode, the issue of low inflation has come to the forefront as a driver of central bank policy. Inflation is uncomfortably low for central bankers in Europe and the US, while Japan's entire economic reform program seeks to sling-shot the country out of a deflationary rut. So far stimulus policy has had limited success in getting inflation back toward target levels in these nations.

The ECB council continues to stick with its aggressive verbal intervention, pronouncing that it is unanimously committed to using its arsenal of unconventional and conventional policy instruments if needed to stave off the emergence of deflation, but it has yet to act. ECB President Draghi has stated that a worsening of medium-term inflation would be context for QE and lower long term rates could boost inflation, but in recent weeks improving European data has given the ECB reason to pause before plunging ahead with a QE program or negative rates. Euro Zone unemployment has finally started to edge lower, dipping to 11.8% in March, its lowest level in over a year, as even peripheral nations like Italy and Spain are seeing chronic high unemployment start to ease. European manufacturing readings have seen a better trend in recent months as well. Most importantly, ECB rhetoric that inflation expectations are stable and that deflation is not an imminent threat appears to be true. The highly anticipated April Euro Zone CPI estimate came in at 0.7% (with the core reading at 1.0%), arresting a downward trend that took the inflation reading to a four year low of 0.5% in the prior month.

In the US, the utility of QE has already come to an end and tapering is the order of the day. The FOMC's mid-June meeting is the next one that features a press conference, and by that time the tapering process will be more than half over, so it stands to reason that the Fed could use the meeting to assess the status of the QE wind down. After questionable communication caused the "taper tantrum" last June, Janet Yellen had her own bobble during her first press conference as Fed Chair when she ad-libbed that the "considerable period" between the end of QE and first rate hike is approximately six months. At the June meeting Yellen will likely refrain from repeating her six month remark and give some more attention to low inflation concerns to fend off any new policy dissents (note that the last dissent against the FOMC majority, from Kocherlakota in January, was on the grounds that the committee was not doing enough to push inflation expectations back toward the 2% target).

The issue of deflation is still most acute in Japan, which has been battling the problem for over a decade. Since the launch of Prime Minister Abe's eponymous economic plan a year ago, inflation has been trending higher as measured by the key Tokyo core CPI reading. Keeping that trend going is vital to the ongoing success of Abe's experiment.

Dollars and Kopecks

Volatility has dried up in foreign exchange as many of the reserve currency nations face similar problems of slow growth and uncomfortably low inflation. Something may get shaken loose in the currency markets as Japan maneuvers itself into phase two of the government's growth strategy in the months ahead.

After a slow start to 2014, Japan is trying to recapture some of the early momentum of Abenomics. Household spending surged in March ahead the April 1st consumption tax increase, but it is still too early to gauge the long term impact of the tax hike on Japanese consumers. Some major firms have responded to the government push for wage increases to help offset the tax increase, but the application has been inconsistent.

For its part, the government plans to forge ahead with the next step of its growth plan. Press reports indicate that Mr. Abe will announce new growth strategies in June. The centerpiece of the latest measures to help companies is said to be a cut in the corporate tax rate to 20% from the current 35% in FY 2015, supplemented by business tax breaks to promote things like angel investments in start-up companies. By some accounts the tax cut will be implemented gradually, similar to the two-stage consumption tax increase. An early indicator of the effects of all of these changes may be domestic auto sales: The last time Japan increased its consumption tax (from 3% up to 5% in April 1997) car sales in Japan dropped 15% and kept declining for 21 months in a row, but more favorable taxes and a weaker currency should help bolster results at Toyota, Honda, and Nissan.

The persistent strength of the euro has been troubling European officials for quite some time, hindering an already tepid economic recovery, and ECB chief Draghi has acknowledged that forex has become increasingly important for policy, though central bank refrains from setting a target rate. Now French President Hollande and his team have declared they will raise the issue of the strength in the euro after the new European Parliament is seated at the end of May. Mr. Hollande wants to put pressure on the ECB to shift its monetary policy toward weakening the currency, which may be the most politically expedient way to aid the French economy.

China has sent ripples through the FX market with the sudden reversal in its currency this year. After three and a half years of steady appreciation, the yuan has weakened over 3% against the greenback in the last three months. The move has been seen as an effort to flush out currency speculators that sought to take advantage of what had been a predictable and gradual appreciation of the currency, and perhaps a demonstration that the yuan can trade in two directions, a prerequisite for eventually attaining reserve currency status. The move has not gone unnoticed by global economic officials, and drew another rebuke from the US Treasury in its latest semi-annual currency report, which said that the yuan did not appreciate as much as it should have in 2013, that it remains significantly undervalued, and that China needs to be more transparent about its FX market interventions to increase credibility. If the Chinese currency does not level off and resume appreciating again soon, it may reanimate talk of a "currency war" as well as feed fears that Beijing is intervening to mask some deeper economic issues.

Back in the USSR

Russian President Putin's apparent desire to relive the glory days of the Soviet era has led to 2014's first new crisis. The potential for a real shooting war in Ukraine is dominating the geopolitical landscape, particularly since national politics have calmed in Europe and the US.

The biggest political flashpoint in Western Europe, namely Italy, appears to have steadied under the ambitious new Prime Minister Renzi. On the broader European canvas, elections to the European Parliament will be held in all member states of the European Union in late May. The political implications are limited, though some polling has indicated that anti-EU populists and nationalist from the left and right could potentially double the number of seats they hold in the body to over 20%, which could put a drag on the dream of "more Europe." Meanwhile, US partisans will not resume throwing Molotov cocktails at each other until this summer when the November mid-term elections are coming into view and Republicans eye retaking control of the Senate. At least until then, there are no political bombshells expected in the West.

A five week long general election is being held in India through May 12 and could draw some interest from market participants, particularly if the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) pulls out a victory. The NDA's candidate for Prime Minister is Narendra Modi, who has branded himself as a pro-growth economic reformer, could excite some renewed interest in India as an investment opportunity on speculation that he can unlock more of the great potential of country's workforce. The Indian vote may also be a harbinger for October elections in another BRIC country, Brazil, where a centrist reformer has the opportunity to unseat the left-leaning President, Dilma Rousseff.

Of course, the biggest political event of the weeks ahead is the scheduled election in Ukraine. The May 25th vote will be a watershed moment for the country, giving political legitimacy to a new leader after the ouster of Putin crony Viktor Yanukovych. The apparent frontrunner is billionaire Pyotr Poroshenko, who made his fortune in the confectionary business. It is unclear yet if the moderate candy oligarch will be palatable to Mr. Putin who, since annexing Crimea, has been leaning hard on Kiev, branding the unelected interim leadership as a rogue regime. If not, Putin may see the rapidly approaching election as a deadline for a decision to invade eastern Ukraine. Once the vote has been held, Russia's protests against an illegitimate government in Kiev will hold even less water. The substantial Russian military presence on the border is already influencing the election: candidates are barely campaigning, Poroshenko's main challenger Yulia Tymoshenko declared her Fatherland party would become a national "resistance force" to battle Russian aggression, and the interim government has announced it will reinstitute military conscription (which was suspended just last year in favor of an all-volunteer force).

Russian Roulette

It's hard not to see the next few months through the prism of the Ukraine conflict; the country's own national anthem, which loosely translates to "Ukraine is Not Dead Yet", certainly applies to the current crisis. If Mr. Putin chooses to escalate the situation by launching a full scale military incursion it will roil markets in the short term until a new equilibrium is reached in the geopolitical situation, as we saw after Crimea was reabsorbed by Russia. It will also trigger harsh new sanctions that will take a hammer and a sickle to the Russia economy, but will also have negative implications for Russia's big trading partners like Germany and could crimp the nascent global recovery. As the world await s Putin's next move, headline risk could lead the stock market heed the old adage "sell in May and go away", or things could remain range-bound, stuck between optimism for the future and short term uncertainties.

A Russian offensive could also send commodities soaring in the near term - gold would surge on concerns a confrontation with NATO may be next, and energy futures would rise on speculation that Russia could hold Europe hostage by cutting off pipeline flows (though remember that those pipelines remained open throughout the Cold War era). Safe haven flows would also further compress treasury yields.

If Putin backs off, markets could return to more risk-on behavior, faced with more mundane concerns. These include looking for confirmation that a weak Q1 was truly due to seasonal factors, and whether the monetary oligarchs at central banks can get the right mix of policy to promote steady growth and healthy inflation without generating undue market distortions. Anyone in their right mind would certainly rather grapple with the CPI than the CCCP.




CALENDAR (based on Eastern Time Zone)

MAY
1 (Thrs): UK Manufacturing PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; Japan Household Spending
2: US Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

4 (Sun): China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
5: US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI
6: US Trade Balance
7: German Factory Orders
8: BOE policy decision; ECB policy decision; China CPI; China Trade Balance
9: German Trade Balance; China New Loans

12:
13: China Industrial Production; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US Retail Sales
14: UK Unemployment Rate; BOE Inflation Report; US PPI; Japan Prelim Q1 GDP
15: Euro Zone Prelim Q1 GDP; Euro Zone CPI; US CPI; Philly Fed Manufacturing; NAHB Housing Market Index
16: US Housing Starts and Building Permits; Prelim University of Michigan Confidence

19: Japan Trade Balance
20: UK CPI; BOJ Policy Statement
21: BOE Minutes; UK Retail Sales; FOMC Minutes; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
22: Euro Zone Prelim Manufacturing PMI; UK Q1 GDP (second reading); US Existing Home Sales; US Prelim Manufacturing PMI
23: German Ifo Business Climate; US New Home Sales
22-25: European Parliamentary Elections

25 (Sun): Ukraine extraordinary elections; BOJ Minutes
26:
27: US Durable Goods Orders; US Consumer Confidence; Japan Retail Sales; Tokyo CPI
28: German Unemployment
29: US Prelim Q1 GDP (second reading); US Pending Home Sales
30: German Retail Sales; Chicago PMI
31 (Sat): China Manufacturing PMI

JUNE
TBA: June G7 leaders meeting in Brussels (replaced the G8 that had been set for Sochi, Russia)
1 (Sun): China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
2: UK Manufacturing PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
3: Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment rate; US Factory Orders
4: US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI
5: Euro Zone Retail Sales; BOE Policy Decision; ECB Policy Decision
6: German Trade Balance; German Industrial Production; US Payrolls and Unemployment Rate;
7 (Sat): China CPI and PPI

8 (Sun): China Trade Balance; China Industrial Production
9: Japan Final Q1 GDP
10: China New Loans
11: UK Unemployment Rate
12: Euro Zone Industrial Production; US Retail Sales; BOJ Policy Statement; World Cup play begins
13: US PPI; Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

16: Euro Zone CPI; US Industrial Production; US NAHB Housing Market Index
17: German Zew Economic Sentiment; US CPI; US Housing Starts and Building Permits; G7 Meetings (17-18th); BOJ Minutes
18: FOMC Policy Statement and Press Conference; Japan Trade Balance
19: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
20:

23: US Existing Home Sales; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
24: German Ifo Business Climate; Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI; US Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales; US Flash Manufacturing PMI
25: US Durable Goods Orders; US Final Q1 GDP (third reading)
26: UK Final Q1 GDP; Japan Retail Sales; Tokyo CPI
27:

30: Euro Zone CPI Flash Estimate; Chicago PMI; US Pending Home Sales; China Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
JULY
1: Euro Zone Unemployment; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
2: US Factory Orders
3: ECB Policy Decision; US Payrolls and Unemployment Rate; US Trade Balance
4: German Factory Orders

TradeTheNews

May 05 2014

Great start to the week, with 6 wins and 1 7-cents stop. Winners ranged from 1:2 to 1:3, making it a "can't lose" day.



Session Time: Mon May 05 00:00:00 2014
[09:03] {Phil} gm all
01[09:03] {@Threei}  morning phil
01[09:10] {@Threei}  LOL:
01[09:10] {@Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras Expected to ask fellow EU finance ministers to start to consider additional debt relief for Greece today
[09:11] {Phil} lol, what a suprise!
[09:12] {dino} gm
01[09:15] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:18] {RonS} gm...can't help myself...beav gapping...
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Ron,,, lol
[09:19] {troub} Good morning all
[09:20] {troub} .
[09:21] {dptl} good morning
01[09:21] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  dp :)
[09:22] {dino} lol ron
[09:23] {RonS} bsft is...
[09:23] {Alexs} gm
[09:23] {thomcbell} data reports after the bell
01[09:23] {@Threei}  alex :)
[09:24] {thomcbell} also AIG after bell today Vad
01[09:24] {@Threei}  yes... on watch
[09:25] {RonS} band pressure on jpm saying trading revs -15-20%
[09:26] {RonS} bank
[09:26] {thomcbell} 51.50 reaction low on AIG looks like interesting level to find a long setup
[09:27] {RonS} jpm 116 day low...
[09:28] {RonS} tsm meat axed
[09:28] {RonS} tsn
[09:29] {RonS} sheesh
[09:30] {dino} trex
[09:30] {ese} gm
01[09:30] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .60 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:32] {@Threei}  half out
01[09:32] {@Threei}  morning volatility, let's be double careful
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:35] {@Threei}  stop .64
01[09:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: WMT  .80 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:37] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:40] {@Threei}  TZA, trying for 1:4
01[09:40] {@Threei}  stop .69, touched 1:3
01[09:41] {@Threei}  out last piece
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:2  WMT
[09:43] {dino} trex partial fill l .51
01[09:44] {@Threei}  *(US) APR FINAL MARKIT US SERVICES PMI: 55.0 V 54.5E
01[09:45] {@Threei}  (UR) Ukraine Govt indicates that a helicopter has been shot down in the area around Sloviansk - press- Note: Over the weekend the Ukraine Defense Min commented that troops had retaken 9 checkpoints in and around Slavyansk; four separatists captured - Says rebels using portable air defense system; confirms two govt helicopters shot down
01[09:45] {@Threei}  portable air defense system... yeah, those are just local activists
[09:45] {dino} damn partials, only filled 100
01[09:45] {@Threei}  I mean who doesn't have couple of those in the shed
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:3  WMT  close enough, out in full
[09:46] {dino} unfortunately for ukraine, world has said basically russia you can have that, but no more
01[09:49] {@Threei}  I am not even sure about "no more"
01[09:49] {@Threei}  world said the same after Crimea
01[09:49] {@Threei}  and red line turned out to be not so red
01[09:49] {@Threei}  who says next will be redder
[09:52] {thomcbell} watching lvs here
01[09:55] {@Threei}  watching AIG for entry on pullback
[09:57] {dino} db hl l .95
01[09:59] {@Threei}  *(US) APR ISM NON-MANUFACTURING: 55.2 V 54.0E
01[10:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .25 break
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[10:11] {@Threei}  two-sided
01[10:14] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
01[10:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[10:31] {dino} zu spike
01[10:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:33] {@Threei}  but on watch
01[10:35] {@Threei}  lol... spam e-mail hyping some drug starts with this line:
01[10:35] {@Threei}  Do you have any of the early signs of normal, age-related mental decline?
01[10:36] {@Threei}  I am very tempted to answer "NOrmal? No."
01[10:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .30 break
01[10:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[10:36] {@Threei}  then again, I can forward it to nemo...
01[10:36] {@Threei}  decisions decisions
01[10:36] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:38] {@Threei}  AIG is ready for the next leg
01[10:40] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:40] {dino} out db .25, +.30
01[10:42] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:42] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:42] {@Threei}  wtg dino
01[10:43] {@Threei}  out in full AIG
01[10:43] {@Threei}  that's one nice smooth morning... is it really monday?
[10:43] {Phil} thanks
01[10:44] {@Threei}  :)
[10:44] {dino} ty
01[10:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .25 break
01[10:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
[10:57] {dino} trex smr l .35
01[11:05] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:08] {dino} last try, smr l trex .62
[11:24] {Alexs} nice calls all through the morning Vad, thanks
01[11:24] {@Threei}  yw sir
01[11:24] {@Threei}  oh btw guys, while I remember
01[11:25] {@Threei}  with your kind permission, I won't be here on Wed
01[11:28] {@Threei}  I'll take silence as permission
[11:28] {Alexs} do we have choice?
01[11:29] {@Threei}  here is one question I never ask my wife
01[11:29] {@Threei}  I mean, let me keep my delusions
[11:33] {RonS} definition of irony?  trex is pulp...
01[11:33] {@Threei}  lol
[11:34] {dino} lol ron
[11:34] {dino} vwap imo
[11:38] {RonS} so, upgraded? platform now shows vwap...now at 72.49, is that what you show?
[11:38] {dino} y
[11:41] {nemo} you want a definition of irony?
[11:41] {nemo} http://goo.gl/1N1KCg
[11:44] {thomcbell} tgt watching for sideways here
[11:44] {thomcbell} and then 60.05 break
[11:46] {RonS} took trex 69.73 ave out 71.45 +1.72
[11:51] {dino} wtg ron
[11:52] {RonS} dino, my dad who is 80 at golf tourney...
[11:52] {RonS} ...says to guys at tee...
[11:52] {dino} things all over the place
[11:52] {dino} whats he say?
[11:52] {RonS} ...can i use the women's, since i have to sit to pee now in order to get it in the toilet?
[11:53] {dino} lol
01[11:58] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .15 break
01[11:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[12:06] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[12:08] {@Threei}  valid again, with .23 stop
[12:16] {thomcbell} wow stuff is just dead
01[12:16] {@Threei}  yup, action stopped
[12:17] {thomcbell} two chinese growth internet names trading well here - YY and BITA both have earnings
[12:17] {thomcbell} YY tonight - Bita Thurs
01[12:18] {@Threei}  disregard FCX
01[12:19] {@Threei} Short Setup: AIG  .45 break
01[12:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .52
[12:27] {dino} mco spike
[12:27] {dino} smr s .96
[12:31] {dino} cov mco .56, +.40
[12:37] {thomcbell} tgt almost there
[12:41] {dptl} leaving early...see ya tomorrow all
[12:41] {dino} cya dp
01[12:42] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[12:54] {@Threei}  SPY's superglued to this place
01[12:58] {@Threei}  AIG valid
01[13:27] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  126 break
01[13:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[13:29] {dino} dead markets
01[13:36] {@Threei}  shoul wake up closer to eod
01[13:37] {@Threei}  (US) DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach: Single family housing is "over-believed and over-rated," on the edge of a big change in housing markets;
01[13:37] {@Threei}  idiot
[13:37] {nemo} I think he's right
[13:38] {dino} i don't
01[13:38] {@Threei}  reiterates recommendation to short homebuilders index (XHB)- Cites falling new home sales, negative existing home sales. - Existing home sales were boosted in 2012-13 by cash buying, which has crashed in recent months. - Questions post-crisis household de-leveraging - Wind-down of the GSEs would negatively impact housing affordability. - Cash poor, house rich baby boomers will be huge source of supply in housing - Do not expect US will ever return to 1.5M housing starts per year.
01[13:38] {@Threei}  neither do I
[13:38] {dino} for generations single family house most peoples' best and biggest investment
01[13:39] {@Threei}  also, he doesn't understand the motive under single family housing
[13:39] {nemo} biggest, best...no, when you figure in taxes and upkeep as well as inflation, there ain't much return unless you hit one of those explosive periods and then dump it at the right time
01[13:39] {@Threei}  it's not merely an ionvestment matter for many
[13:40] {dino} but yuo forget its a "forced savings account". renting just burns $
01[13:40] {@Threei}  people simply want to pay their mortgage, not their landlord=s
01[13:41] {@Threei}  exactly dino
[13:41] {dino} agree 3i, people want to own
[13:41] {nemo} well, depends on how much you have to put down...then you have opportunity costs of the downpayment
[13:41] {dino} i should say "most"
[13:41] {nemo} well, you are paying the bank not your mortgage
[13:41] {nemo} not for a while
[13:41] {nemo} the bank is your landlord, and the tax man
[13:42] {nemo} hell it's harder to get a deadbeat tenant out then it is to get foreclosed
[13:42] {dino} for most people, home ownership is what gets them ahead
[13:42] {nemo} they think anyway
[13:43] {RonS} said the man who buys low and sells high...
[13:43] {nemo} yeah, dino the rapacious landlord, property flipper
[13:45] {dino} i have owned 28 houses. and the one i live in i have owned for 19 years. it it worth 2x what i had it built for. mortgage was paid off in 11 years (bi-weekly on a 15 yr). what am i missing
[13:45] {nemo} o.k.  subtract out taxes, upkeep and inflation adjustment
[13:46] {nemo} you must also admit, you are somewhat of an unusual case
01[13:46] {@Threei}  why? any investment would be a subject of inflation adjustment
01[13:46] {@Threei}  taxes
[13:46] {dino} no, don't agree. taxes are deductible, i do not have rent payments, and i have equity
[13:46] {nemo} it's still money you paid out on the investment
01[13:46] {@Threei}  and upkeep, heck... you keep the place where you live
[13:46] {nemo} they are deductible on your income taxes, you do pay them
[13:47] {nemo} it's just a cash flow, and PV analysis
[13:47] {dino} agreed its an investment. most will never own a house, let alone even stocks or bonds. home ownership is what helps most save via forced savings
01[13:47] {@Threei}  when you rent, you pay all those expenses of your landloklrd and have nothing to show for it at the end
[13:47] {nemo} Yes, but there is a bit missing in the marketing of home ownership
[13:47] {dino} exactly
[13:48] {dino} mortgage interest is deductible too
[13:48] {nemo} Yes, but you bear none of the burdens either
[13:48] {nemo} yes, again, it's still cashflow because the deduction just reduced how much you pay in income taxes
[13:48] {dino} and where else can you borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars at 4% for 30 nyears!
[13:48] {nemo} it's still a cashflow item
[13:49] {nathan} hi gents
01[13:49] {@Threei}  hey nathan
[13:49] {cosmo} renters don't have to worry about BLM
[13:50] {cosmo} as much...
[13:50] {dino} but miost renters will not save the difference. they end up with nothing
[13:51] {nemo} and many who have bought home remortgaged and screwed themselves
01[13:51] {@Threei}  which only confirms that the world is full of idiots
[13:51] {nemo} we knew that
[13:51] {dino} sure, as many do buying stocks and gold, etc
[13:52] {nemo} dino,  I'm arguing the reality versus the marketing
[13:53] {nemo} spy 47.5 million shares...August trading
[13:54] {nemo} I think markets waiting on Draghi on Thursday, especially after today's European PMI showed deflation
[13:55] {dino} and i am arguing that a home can be a great investment, provided you are not an idiot about it
[13:55] {dino} but enough on this
[13:57] {Alexs} stocks can be a great investment the same way
[13:58] {nemo} and you don't lose your job
[13:58] {nemo} or get sick
[13:58] {nemo} injured
[13:58] {Phil} what do you think of MTW if it comes back down for a DB?
01[13:59] {@Threei}  .10 break does look like a long trigger, if holds .05
01[14:05] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:06] {@Threei}  good spot Phil
[14:06] {Phil} thanks Vad
01[14:06] {@Threei}  clean db, right from 111 Trades pages
01[14:07] {@Threei}  you make a good use of that course, by your calls
[14:07] {nathan} :-)
[14:08] {Phil} yes, I have been through it several times. Thanks
01[14:08] {@Threei}  :)
[14:08] {Alexs} it was a commercial break?
[14:08] {dino} hum, wlp spike
[14:08] {goinshort} nice phil took the 1:1 -thanks
01[14:09] {@Threei}  yes, back to usual programming
01[14:09] {@Threei}  here is non-commercial break: http://www.arrestinglight.com/blog/2014/5/tulips-in-the-rain
01[14:14] {@Threei}  out in full
01[14:14] {@Threei}  1:2 is close enough
[14:14] {dino} nka drop
[14:15] {dino} gap around 15.40
01[14:15] {@Threei}  http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/67603/russia-suspends-accord-with-lithuania-on-exchange-of-info-on-weaponry-in-kaliningrad-201467603/
[14:18] {dino} nemo, fwiw, you are forgetting that threre are no capital gains on the sale of the home up to $500k profit tax free too
[14:20] {Phil} hoping WFM comes back for a DB, DB on daily also
[14:24] {nemo} no, I'm just doing a cash flow PV analysis
[14:37] {Phil} WFM over 20?
01[14:39] {@Threei}  looks like... but do half lot
01[14:40] {@Threei}  something doesn't feel fully right
[14:40] {Phil} OK, thanks
01[14:40] {@Threei}  and after a good day it's a good practice to keep risk small, preserve profit
01[14:45] {@Threei}  White House concerned as unrest spreads to Odessa
01[14:45] {@Threei}  they wanted to spend vacation over there I assume
[14:46] {cosmo} I would want to see the ancient ruins
[14:46] {cosmo} the ancient ones
01[14:46] {@Threei}  catacombs
01[14:46] {@Threei}  quite something
[14:47] {cosmo} yeah...they better be reusable
[14:47] {Phil} 1:1
01[14:47] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:48] {goinshort} 1:1
[14:51] {troub} was that a db on MTW or too shallow?
01[14:51] {@Threei}  rather BMR
01[14:51] {@Threei}  bounce with mini-range
01[14:51] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:51] {troub} thanks
01[14:52] {@Threei}  from that same 111 Trades
01[14:52] {@Threei}  sorry Alex
[14:53] {Alexs} :)
01[15:03] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .10 break
01[15:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[15:20] {RonS} lol...ese doesn't say much these days...
[15:23] {dino} took hours, but out trex 71.87, +2.25
[15:23] {nathan} good night guys
[15:24] {RonS} gj
[15:24] {dino} ty, should've dumped w/you and re-loaded
01[15:24] {@Threei}  take care nathan
[15:26] {Phil} TGT DB?
[15:26] {dino} oled blood
01[15:27] {@Threei}  chart wise yes... wther market supports it on the last hour, difficult to say
[15:27] {Phil} OK thanks
[15:34] {nemo} 56.4 million shares spy
[15:37] {dino} slow afternoon
[15:37] {nemo} they've been that way, indexes look like they might come in a bit here
[15:38] {nemo} think Draghi announce QE on Thursday
[15:38] {dino} think we may be in for slow summer
[15:39] {Alexs} Have you entered GLD trade Vad?
01[15:40] {@Threei}  yes
[15:40] {Alexs} time is running out (
01[15:41] {@Threei}  trail to .16
[15:41] {Alexs} yes ok
[15:44] {dino} calling it a day, thx all, gn
01[15:44] {@Threei}  take care dino
[15:45] {dino} u2
[15:46] {troub} go cut grass, gn all
01[15:46] {@Threei}  bye troub
01[15:47] {@Threei}  out
01[15:47] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:47] {@Threei}  see youi tomorrow
[15:50] {Phil} thanks Vad, bye all