Jan 29 2015

DKTK (Don't Kid The Kidder) setup, especially useful in jerky markets that try to rinse every entry. Let the trigger go, wait for a rinse, enter after the stops get hit.

(Chart courtesy of brokerage)



Decent day with a few more strong trades throughout the day, including JPM short for 1:3 and IWM long for 1:4

Session Time: Thu Jan 29 00:00:00 2015
[09:03] {JoebiWan} gm
01[09:03] {@Threei}  jw :)
[09:07] {dino} gm
01[09:07] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:08] {@Threei}  this is for you snowed-in folks:
01[09:08] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152282089521489
[09:18] {Raven} lol
[09:20] {RonS} gm
01[09:21] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CRMD +30% (FDA grants QIDP designation to Neutrolin)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SILC +25% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MLNX +11% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -HAR +11% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -KATE +9% (raised FY14 adj EBITDA $145-150M vs prior $130-140M & joint venture announcement)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CTXS +6.5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -COH +6.2% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FLEX +6% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -PSX +5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -LVS +3.5% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -MCD +3% (Board elects new CEO upon retirement of Don Thompson)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CLB -13% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -BABA -9% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -YHOO -7% (BABA earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -QCOM -6.8% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -RCL -5.8% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FTNT -5.7% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -STLD -3.4% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CCL -2.5% (RCL earnings)
[09:26] {nemo} yeah..don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out
01[09:26] {@Threei}  who?
01[09:27] {@Threei}  nemo is drinking this early?
[09:27] {dino} rcl sinking (ron try)
[09:30] {nemo} mmmhhh...I thought it was late
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CCL.10  break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  44
01[09:34] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CC  44 break
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CCL  44 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:38] {@Threei}  closed
01[09:40] {@Threei}  (GR) Greece PM Tsipras: Negotiating with European partners to find a solution that is mutually beneficial, but it will take time; Govt does have some radical reform plans
01[09:40] {@Threei}  scared even imagine what they'd call "radical"
01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .40 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:43] {@Threei}  stop .33
[09:43] {nemo} spy looks like 199 test today
01[09:45] {@Threei}  come on DAL, move
[09:45] {nemo} index weight
01[09:45] {@Threei}  didn't make new low with SPY
01[09:45] {@Threei}  nah
01[09:45] {@Threei}  out
[09:46] {nemo} short baba .20
[09:46] {nemo} Voh shit
[09:46] {nemo} remind me not to do that again
[09:46] {nemo} SOB
[09:46] {nemo} SOB
[09:47] {nemo} SOB
01[09:50] {@Threei}  watching FB for pullback entey
[09:50] {dino} cybr gap filled nov, adding calls
[09:50] {RonS} beav biting it
01[09:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:51] {@Threei}  yuck
01[09:51] {@Threei}  what's with internet names?
01[09:51] {@Threei}  YHOO, BABA, FB
[09:53] {RonS} baba sales miss...yhoo tied to baba...fb spending ramp
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CCL  .20 break
01[09:55] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:58] {dino} fb sm l .25
01[10:00] {@Threei}  (US) DEC PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -3.7% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 8.5% V 10.8%E
[10:01] {dptl} gm
01[10:01] {@Threei}  dp
01[10:01] {@Threei}  closed CCL on trail
01[10:02] {@Threei}  *(DK) DANISH CENTRAL (NATIONALBANKEN) BANK CUTS DEPOSIT RATE TO -0.50% FROM -0.35%
01[10:02] {@Threei}  so, you pay to keep money in bank?
01[10:03] {@Threei}  and starting today you pay more?
[10:04] {dino} lol, wonder if they also have accont fees
[10:04] {cosmo} Insurance fees...
01[10:05] {@Threei}  unattended account fee
01[10:05] {@Threei}  transaction fee
01[10:05] {@Threei}  account statement fee
01[10:06] {@Threei}  let's open a bank
01[10:06] {@Threei}  nemo will be our desginated fee collector
[10:06] {cosmo} good man
01[10:07] {@Threei}  in a few months we will start looking fore him to ask why he never came to collect his salary
01[10:07] {@Threei}  to which he will say, "I get salary too??"
01[10:08] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .30 break
01[10:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:08] {dino} mmyt sm l .25
01[10:08] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:10] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .60 break
01[10:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:11] {@Threei}  change to .55
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[10:15] {@Threei}  no go
[10:17] {nemo} jerky frickin' action
[10:17] {dino} out fb .32, +1.07
[10:17] {JoebiWan} gj
[10:18] {dino} ty
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .45 break
[10:20] {nemo} twtr hit it's head on vwap twice
01[10:20] {@Threei}  change to .40
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:21] {@Threei}  which is why I stayed away from .60 break and waited for rinse
01[10:22] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:25] {nemo} CVX
01[10:26] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:31] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:31] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:31] {@Threei}  out
[10:31] {JoebiWan} nice one
01[10:31] {@Threei}  DKTK works
01[10:37] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  55 break
01[10:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:39] {dino} alb drop
[10:39] {RonS} alb conference call going on right now
01[10:40] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:42] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:45] {@Threei}  1:3
[10:46] {dino} alb vsm .50 trig
[10:47] {JoebiWan} alb
[10:47] {JoebiWan} whoops sry
[10:47] {dino} in alb .55 stop lod brk
[10:48] {RonS} which dollar?
[10:48] {dino} 48
01[10:48] {@Threei}  lol
[10:49] {dino} pulp
[10:49] {dino} 48-49
[10:52] {dino} stop alb flat
[10:54] {dino} damn, tricked me
06[10:56] * dino slaps dino around a bit with a large trout
01[10:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[10:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:59] {@Threei}  to .44
01[10:59] {@Threei}  meh
01[11:08] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .80 break
01[11:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[11:09] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:13] {dino} spxl smr l ave .51
[11:21] {cosmo} silver turns into lead today
[11:22] {cosmo} alchemy, ey
01[11:23] {@Threei}  wrong direction?
01[11:23] {@Threei}  supposed to turn lead into gold
[11:23] {cosmo} sign of the times
01[11:23] {@Threei}  makes sense
[11:24] {cosmo} gold is next
[11:35] {dino} rdwr sm l .55
[11:44] {dino} out spxl .04, +.53
01[11:52] {@Threei}  wtg
[11:54] {dino} ty
[11:56] {nemo} VXX
[12:20] {nemo} UPS
01[12:21] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  35 break
01[12:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[12:22] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:27] {@Threei}  lol, get this... some cities are just created to be totally f*cked up. First, Winnipeg gets a city-wide water boiling advisory as control finds e-coli in tap water. Two days later, thousand households are left with no power as a pole gets hit, so now they can't even boil that water
01[12:27] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:29] {dino} gj
01[12:29] {@Threei}  ty
01[12:29] {@Threei}  closed on a trail
[12:31] {RonS} har laughing to bank...
[12:34] {RonS} Oil sinks below $44 a barrel for first time since 2009
01[12:34] {@Threei}  nothing but thunderous applause from me
01[12:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .10 break
01[12:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[12:46] {RonS} lol...Senior ECB official: Greek government’s signals are "very mixed"
01[12:48] {@Threei}  you think, lol
01[12:49] {@Threei}  mix of we want money, we don't want to return it, we want jobs, we don't want to work...
01[12:50] {@Threei}  now as new Greek govt starts protesting sanctions against Russia, they also find financial connections to Kremlin
[12:53] {RonS} rdc drilled
[12:56] {dino} took all morning, but out mmyt .11, +86
[12:56] {dino} .86
01[12:57] {@Threei}  even if that took all afternoon too, wouldn't be shabby
[12:57] {dino} indeed
[12:57] {dino} i think i will take a little break
[12:59] {RonS} freakin liberals:  Dartmouth has banned hard liquor in effort to raise campus safety
01[13:02] {@Threei}  [TRP] TRP US Senate now has enough votes to move Keystone XL pipeline legislation forward; final vote to take place later today
01[13:02] {@Threei}  meaning, vote-proof majority?
01[13:06] {@Threei}  ummm... veto-proof
01[13:06] {@Threei}  {--- dixleksik
[13:06] {RonS} doubt will know 'till over...arm twisting time
[13:06] {JoebiWan} lol
[13:07] {RonS} gpro whack
[13:17] {nemo} UAL
[13:17] {nemo} UPS
01[13:29] {@Threei}  new Terminator is coming??
01[13:29] {@Threei}  never heard they were filming it
[13:31] {dptl} gn all ...see ya tomorrow
[13:31] {RonS} probably bruce jenner after sex change...enough to scare the shit out of anybody...
01[13:31] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[13:31] {@Threei}  lol
[13:34] {RonS} headline after my own heart:  Greek Banks at Mercy of the Fates
01[13:35] {@Threei}  hehe
01[13:36] {@Threei}  ronism lives and conquers
[13:38] {RonS} tradition for newspapers since the Hearst yellow journalism days...headlines as hooks...make the reader think what the hell is that?
[13:59] {cosmo} I like it when the article's text has nothing to do with the headline.
[13:59] {dino} miss much?
[13:59] {cosmo} missing time is all
[14:00] {dino} ll
[14:00] {dino} lol, missing typing skills
[14:01] {cosmo} tweeting does that
[14:02] {cosmo} missing literacy actually
01[14:05] {@Threei}  of all social networks known to humanity, twitter has my largest dose of despise
[14:06] {cosmo} 11
[14:11] {RonS} Big Oil is hurting from low oil prices. @Shell just killed $15 billion in investment projects http://bloom.bg/1DcDaHe
01[14:13] {@Threei}  why do I not feel like crying...
[14:21] {nemo} because your an insensitive bastard
[14:23] {cosmo} because it now helps keep the stock price up?
01[14:23] {@Threei}  [14:21] {nemo} because your an insensitive bastard
01[14:24] {@Threei}  my wife just asked to tell you, you are the man she appreciates as far as correct evaluation of my values goes
[14:26] {nemo} that's why you and I get along so well
01[14:26] {@Threei}  that, and one more...
01[14:26] {@Threei}  anyone wants to see a grown man sobbing uncontrollably?
01[14:27] {@Threei}  twell nemo that he must chose between fried meat, alcohol and sex
[14:27] {nemo} and guns
[14:27] {nemo} I'm fondling my Sig as we speak
[14:27] {RonS} ...and rock & roll?
[14:27] {nemo} not so much...worked in Rock&Roll..surprised my liver survived
[14:35] {nemo} VXX
[14:36] {nemo} buying .36
[14:36] {nemo} stop under .25
[14:37] {nemo} first target .54
[14:37] {nemo} stop now .34
[14:38] {nemo} out
01[14:39] {@Threei}  can't tell if it;'s a shakeout or end
[14:39] {nemo} shakeout, given the time
[14:40] {nemo} but indexes holding high and tight
[14:41] {nemo} should have gone with the DKTK setup
01[14:41] {@Threei}  from the shore walk couple days ago: https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/a.488848774527976.1073741828.483178015095052/787380191341498/?type=1&theater
[14:42] {nemo} and there's the first target....not
[14:56] {dino} these afternoons are dead
01[14:57] {@Threei}  been a case for a good while
01[14:57] {@Threei}  last hour livens things up again
[14:57] {dino} i know, it sucks, because its too snowy and cold up here for afternoon golfing
01[14:59] {@Threei}  well... ese is waiting for you on our golf fields :)
[14:59] {nemo} links vad, links
01[14:59] {@Threei}  sigh... sorry
06[15:00] * dino slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
01[15:00] {@Threei}  thank god not the put
06[15:01] * nemo slaps Threei around a bit with a large Carp
[15:01] {nemo} aapl might be getting ready to come in a bit
01[15:01] {@Threei}  for a while I thought "tee" was just a mistyped "tea"
[15:02] {dino} speaking of golf, buddy of mine just booked our golf group for round on february 9th at www.thetiltedcaddie.com should be interesting
[15:03] {nemo} I've decided aapl is an index
[15:03] {dino} its a fruit
[15:04] {nemo} it's a record label
[15:06] {nemo} what a battle in aapl
01[15:08] {@Threei}  it's a partially eaten fruit
01[15:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break
01[15:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[15:15] {nemo} aapl coming in indexes will come in
01[15:18] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:20] {@Threei}  jeez
01[15:20] {@Threei}  [FB] Launches new feature known as "Place Tips" to recommend spots in a location specific way - tech blogs (update) - Facebook will send notifications when the individual is near a store, restaurant, or other location that it thinks you may like
01[15:20] {@Threei}  just how creepy is this
01[15:21] {@Threei}  1:2
[15:22] {cosmo} I'm just glad I was home schooled in science fiction
01[15:22] {@Threei}  got almost perfect reversal, the only thing I was struggling with and unfortunately decided not to do: change entry to .65
01[15:24] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:25] {@Threei}  1:4
01[15:25] {@Threei}  out
[15:29] {nemo} VXX
01[15:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .95 break
01[15:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[15:39] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:48] {JoebiWan} ty all, im outta here
01[15:49] {@Threei}  thanl you all, fine day
01[15:49] {@Threei}  have a great evening
01[15:49] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Jan 28 2015

Session Time: Wed Jan 28 00:00:00 2015
[08:48] {nemo} I think I'll drink until 11:00 then nap and sober up for the 2:15 Fed announcement
01[08:52] {@Threei}  соундс лике а план
[08:52] {dino} gm
01[08:52] {@Threei}  sounds like a plan
01[08:52] {@Threei}  dino :)
[08:53] {nemo} wow, now he thinks he can type in Russian
[08:53] {nemo} is it easier with those fins?
01[08:53] {@Threei}  no, about the same
01[09:05] {@Threei}  - Greece PM Tsipras reiterated his view to negotiate debt relief and easing of austerity terms. Priority was to seek compromise with EU peers and to avoid mutually destructive clash
01[09:05] {@Threei}  why avoid it... go right ahead
01[09:05] {@Threei}  - Russia Dep Fin Min Moiseev: Might stop holding the FX Deposit auctions
01[09:06] {@Threei}  see? that's how it's done. If we don't like the rate, we cancel the market
[09:14] {RonS} hi everyone
01[09:14] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:23] {nemo} volume somewhat on the light side this morning
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ABMD +38% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ADXS +12% (update on GOF Phase 2 study of Advaxis's Lm-LLO immunotherapy ADXS-HPV)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -FSL +12% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -AAPL +9% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -X +8.8% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -COMM +7.4% (acquiring telecom, enterprise & wireless business from TEL for $3B)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -JRJC +7% (no news)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -JNPR +6% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -TUP +5.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -MNKD +5.2% (CEO transitioning to Executive Chairman, COO Edstrom appointed to CEO position)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -WDC +5.1% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -YHOO +5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -EA +4.5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -NBG -25% (continued comments from incoming Greek PM on restructuring of debt relief and austerity programs)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ACAT -17% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -PBR -9% (canceled plans to build 2 low sulfur diesel refineries in Northern Brazil)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SYRG -5% (launched & priced 16.2M shares at $10.75/shr)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FCAU -3.4% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ENR -3.4% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -RDWR -3% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .05 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[09:39] {cosmo} JNPR needs to hold 23 ....as a mkt indicator
[09:39] {cosmo} imho
01[09:39] {@Threei}  still valid JPM
01[09:40] {@Threei}  change to 56 break
[09:41] {RonS} jnpr ginned up eh?
01[09:41] {@Threei}  no go
[09:45] {dino} rdwr sm l .70
01[09:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .85 break
01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:53] {@Threei}  stop to .79
01[09:54] {@Threei}  meh
[09:56] {nemo} YHOO
01[09:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .65 break
01[09:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:59] {@Threei}  grrr
01[10:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[10:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:05] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:09] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:14] {@Threei}  SPY is locked in narrow range
01[10:14] {@Threei}  BBs are toghtening
01[10:14] {@Threei}  i
[10:14] {nemo} 203.80 it's weekly pivot   FED day
[10:15] {dptl} gm
01[10:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  81 break
01[10:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:19] {@Threei}  no go
[10:20] {RonS} sm l PH 117.16 s/l be
01[10:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[10:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:29] {nemo} frickin' fed day
01[10:30] {@Threei}  1 cent to 1:1
01[10:30] {@Threei}  sigh
[10:33] {nemo} wow vxx jerk around
01[10:33] {@Threei}  total somg
01[10:33] {@Threei}  changing to DKTK
[10:33] {nemo} turn out my drinking idea was a good one
[10:39] {nemo} vxx and spy get to pivot at same time
01[10:47] {@Threei}  to get the direction right and get rinsed like this, hate it
01[10:59] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .40 break
01[10:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[11:21] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[11:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[11:22] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:22] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:25] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=796174470431102
01[11:26] {@Threei}  1:3  FB  close enough
01[11:26] {@Threei}  out
01[11:32] {@Threei}  1:4
01[11:32] {@Threei}  some things work nicely
[11:41] {RonS} Oil Inventories Hit Highest Level In 80 Years, Prices Fall Further http://stks.co/a1ZOC
01[11:41] {@Threei}  kind of self-sustaining pattern, isn't it
01[11:42] {@Threei}  low price, easier to get larger inventory
01[11:42] {@Threei}  larger inventory pushes price down even more
01[11:42] {@Threei}  and that'll continue until production starts really dropping off
01[11:50] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .70 break
01[11:51] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[11:52] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:52] {cosmo} what controls oil production?
[11:53] {cosmo} I'd say its the Earth itself.
01[11:54] {@Threei}  I mean oil producers that have costs and must balance them against prices
01[11:55] {@Threei}  as price drops, those who have higher cost of production will start falling off
01[11:55] {@Threei}  can lower cost producers satisfy the demand while prices stay low?
01[11:55] {@Threei}  that will determine the price ceiling
[11:56] {cosmo} good riddance to fracking
01[11:56] {@Threei}  rather: thank you fracking for establishing that ceiling
01[11:57] {@Threei}  prices will stay under that limit which makes fracking viable again
01[11:57] {@Threei}  how is it not great?
[11:57] {RonS} ya, after 40 years of fracking it is dead...right...
01[11:58] {@Threei}  well, the part of it that is done at higher costs, will die off
01[11:58] {@Threei}  costs vary greatly between regions
[11:58] {cosmo} 90% of the stuff released by the process is "fugitive"; it misses the pipe and goes into the air and groundwater, etc.
[11:59] {cosmo} and is also totally unaccounted for as a greenhouse gas
[11:59] {cosmo} evil tech
01[12:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[12:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[12:02] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:06] {dino} rdwr sm l .24
[12:09] {dino} that evil tech is saving people lots of $$
[12:12] {dino} mbly drop
01[12:13] {@Threei}  but that's evil in and of itself... according to do-gooders, fuel must be exp[ensive to discourage its use :)
01[12:13] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:14] {dino} ok, then how about that evil tech out usa back on top
01[12:15] {@Threei}  that's evil too... we need to be cut down to size
[12:15] {dino} as i tell my kids, just because somebody says it's true does not make it true
[12:16] {nemo} yeah, you used to tell them Santa was real
01[12:16] {@Threei}  unless it's left who says that... then it's true just because they said it
01[12:16] {@Threei}  because they are moral
[12:17] {dino} if keeping people down is considered moral
01[12:17] {@Threei}  1:3
[12:17] {cosmo} evil = unconscionably messy = polluting
01[12:18] {@Threei}  day becomes brighter
[12:18] {cosmo} making earthquakes too
01[12:18] {@Threei}  1:4
01[12:18] {@Threei}  out
[12:19] {JoebiWan} gj
[12:19] {dino} gj
01[12:19] {@Threei}  ty
[12:19] {cosmo} and doing this knowingly and playing dumb about it
[12:19] {cosmo} i digress...
01[12:25] {@Threei}  wow FB
[12:26] {JoebiWan} xiv .10 break?
01[12:27] {@Threei}  most likely
01[13:07] {@Threei}  Greek banks are getting hammered again today, with the top four banks down 25% a piece, following two days of massive losses. The Athens stock exchange is down nearly 7%.
01[13:07] {@Threei}  The new coalition government and its European opponents have begun preliminary maneuvers ahead of what will surely be vicious negotiations to restructure the Greek bailout deal. Fears of a run on Greek banks are in the air.
[13:07] {nemo} and the dax is up again almost 1%
01[13:12] {@Threei}  I am sure bets are made that thnis or that way but EU will placate Greece
[13:23] {dptl} fed at 2pm?
[13:24] {dino} eu will extend the loans greatly
01[13:31] {@Threei}  yes dp
[13:31] {dptl} ty
01[13:35] {@Threei}  this is huge problem for EU
01[13:35] {@Threei}  start loosening loan conditions, there arer more countries that will immediately demand the same
01[13:36] {@Threei}  can you say "contagion"
[13:49] {RonS} k, early lunch so ready for the fed jerk around...
[13:56] {nemo} aapl looks long
[13:57] {RonS} wish u said that yesterday...
01[13:58] {@Threei}  lol
[13:58] {nemo} you would have had to hold into the post market
01[14:00] {@Threei}  *(US) FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25%: REMAINS PATIENT - Vote: (prior 7-3)
01[14:00] {@Threei}  WILL CONDUCT TERM RRP TEST IN COMING MONTHS
01[14:01] {@Threei}  (GR) EU's Moscovici: A solution will be found for Greece, EU will keep aiding Greece
[14:02] {RonS} lol...Good news: No more Fed meetings till March
[14:03] {dino} crs drop
[14:04] {dino} sm l .50
[14:06] {nemo} FB
[14:06] {nemo} looks short if it stays under .30ish
[14:07] {nemo} yo rinny
[14:08] {nemo} might find it's way back to vwap
[14:08] {nemo} stop to .25ish
[14:09] {nemo} to .10
[14:09] {dino} rdwr to .19
[14:09] {nemo} out .82
[14:10] {nemo} should be one more "cha" in the indexes
[14:11] {nemo} guess I wussed on that one, shit look at aapl
[14:12] {dino} crs stop -.30
[14:12] {dino} out rdwr .23, +.99
[14:12] {JoebiWan} gj
[14:12] {dino} ty
[14:13] {nemo} http://goo.gl/Uiab70
[14:14] {RonS} deep story...
[14:14] {nemo} hahaha
[14:24] {dino} crs sm l .20
01[14:25] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .65 break
01[14:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[14:27] {@Threei}  nope
[14:34] {dino} crs stop again
01[14:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  49 break
01[14:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[14:36] {dino} snx drop
01[14:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[14:42] {@Threei}  late
[14:43] {dino} snx sm l .01 ave
01[14:43] {@Threei}  if pullsa bck before hitting 1:1, maybe
01[14:43] {@Threei}  let it drop under .65
01[14:43] {@Threei}  and see if it recrosses
01[14:44] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .35 break
01[14:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[14:45] {nemo} VMW looks short
[14:45] {nemo} here or below .90 stop above .05
01[14:46] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:48] {dino} out snx .40, +.39
[14:48] {nemo} stop to .90
[14:50] {nemo} out .92
[14:50] {nemo} frig
01[14:52] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:53] {dino} dia smr l .70
01[14:53] {@Threei}  FB is our savior today
01[14:54] {@Threei}  1:3
[14:54] {dino} rdwr good to me, 2/2 on it, 1.39 in all
01[14:54] {@Threei}  nice
[14:54] {nemo} I took it south (not far enough) any you took it north
01[14:54] {@Threei}  how do you manage to make it sound dirty?
01[14:54] {@Threei}  1:4
[14:55] {dino} lol
01[14:55] {@Threei}  out
[14:55] {nemo} ahhh...your inference is not my implication
01[14:55] {@Threei}  I dunno... it just has to be your fault
[14:55] {RonS} plus it still sounded dirty...
[14:56] {nemo} well, it's not like we did it at the same time
[14:56] {nemo} o.k.
[14:56] {nemo} that better
[14:56] {dino} dia stopped flat, whipping around
01[14:57] {@Threei}  1:6
01[14:57] {@Threei}  grrr
01[15:00] {@Threei}  finally major news of the day comes
01[15:00] {@Threei}  *(NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.50%, AS EXPECTED
[15:00] {RonS} thank goodness...at least 1 qe in the chamber
01[15:01] {@Threei}  :)
01[15:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[15:03] {@Threei}  If holds  50
01[15:03] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:06] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:06] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:07] {@Threei}  want 1:5
01[15:10] {@Threei}  ok... out
01[15:11] {@Threei}  ugh... rinsed last piece
01[15:11] {@Threei}  this kind of statements amaze:
01[15:11] {@Threei}  IMF's Vinals: Fed should not rush to raise interest rates as inflation is not a concern in the US
01[15:12] {@Threei}  what vusiness do you have to tell US what to do??
01[15:13] {@Threei}  1:5
01[15:17] {@Threei}  sheesh... unstoppable
[15:18] {dptl} gn all see ya tomorrow
01[15:20] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[15:34] {@Threei}  one last bounce should be close somwhere
[15:36] {dino} 17241 has been strong bounce area for last 30 days
[15:36] {dino} below that 17087
01[15:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .90 break
01[15:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[15:37] {dino} pattern of slightly lower highs building, but so far not lower lows
01[15:38] {@Threei}  sigh
01[15:39] {@Threei}  not liking today, despite a few very nice trades
01[15:43] {@Threei}  after VXX entry should have just fainted, and come out of it just about now
[15:43] {nemo} or drank yourself unconscious
01[15:44] {@Threei}  $2.20 ago
[15:44] {nemo} I've always wondered why you just don't leave a little on
01[15:45] {@Threei}  because it hit trailing stop?
01[15:45] {@Threei}  how often di they go like this, in almost straight line, vs reverse?
[15:45] {dino} cybr gap around 33.80
[15:45] {nemo} it's Greece
[15:46] {dino} sure its not greek
[15:47] {nemo} it's a big part...they are now a black hole in the EU model
[15:47] {dino} this greece thing doesn't really happen until march
[15:47] {nemo} when actually is dawn and sunset dino?
[15:48] {nemo} uncertainty is the bane of markets
[15:48] {dino} ??? sure, but the decision is in march from what i can find
[15:48] {nemo} is this a canary in the coal mine or just a drunk to kick out the door
[15:48] {nemo} no, decision was the elections
[15:49] {nemo} you have the far left and right in charge...you think there will be middle of the road compromise?
[15:49] {dino} no, he's already backpeddeling. prior to election he said default, now aking for lengthening of payoff timetable
01[15:49] {@Threei}  thanks guys, finishing for the day
[15:49] {dino} take care 3i
01[15:49] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:50] {nemo} That's what we read...and if that happens then comes Spain, Portugal, Italy...etc
[15:50] {nemo} black hole of uncertainty in Europe has raised it's ugly head...volatility baby....it's back!
[15:50] {dino} sure nemo, but gut says lengthening does not hurt them that much, think brady bonds
[15:50] {dino} default and exit is the fear
[15:51] {nemo} we're headed into the fog of this Keynesian experiment, there be dragons ahead
[15:51] {nemo} it'
[15:51] {nemo} you have currency wars now
[15:51] {dino} ironically, if i were the greels, default/exit are what i woud recommend, within a year things would get better
[15:52] {dino} greeks
[15:52] {dino} would, sheesh
[15:52] {nemo} probably, then come the Italians, Spaniards, and Portugese
[15:52] {nemo} the Euro structure is an abortion
[15:52] {dino} sure, one defaults and euro is dead
[15:52] {nemo} right, so then a vacuum ensues...
[15:53] {nemo} Financial dramamine required
[15:53] {dino} big question is "if a default occurs", still not sure it happens. debt extensions yes.
[15:53] {nemo} What do you do with trillons in Euro denominated bonds?
[15:53] {nemo} that's right, uncertainty
[15:53] {nemo} exactly my point
[15:54] {dino} what do you do? you get rid of them now
[15:54] {nemo} I have no idea all we know is uncertainty creates volatility
[15:54] {nemo} you go to what you know
[15:55] {nemo} what currencies can you be sure of?
[15:55] {dino} hearing rumors canadian housing market was propped up by oil, could be trouble up there
[15:55] {nemo} absolutely
[15:56] {dino} currencies, have to go the usd. that and softening of others currencies should keep rate increase at bay
01[15:56] {@Threei}  not that simple
01[15:56] {@Threei}  it's true for Alberta
[15:56] {nemo} two good things about the USD...it's reserve, and it's diversified as to underpinning value
01[15:56] {@Threei}  other provinces are more likely to benefit from oil drop
[15:56] {nemo} CAD is resource based
[15:57] {dino} yes, not just oil pain, copper, iron, etc
01[15:57] {@Threei}  re market is surely heated here but how much of that is OVERheated is very diffficult to say
01[15:57] {@Threei}  there was never subprime lending here
[15:57] {nemo} well, you'll know next GDP report with $45 oil
01[15:58] {@Threei}  sure but there is no direct connection to RE
[15:58] {dino} well, thats all for me, gn guys
01[15:58] {@Threei}  plenty of industries were suppressed by high oil and high CDN
01[15:58] {@Threei}  they are raising exports now
01[15:58] {@Threei}  and hiring

Jan 27 2015

Uneven day, back and forth trading with a few good trades more or less compensating lack of reliable read. Ending slightly negative nonetheless.

Session Time: Tue Jan 27 00:00:00 2015
[08:48] {JoebiWan} gm
01[08:48] {@Threei}  jw :)
01[08:55] {@Threei}  is east coast still there?
[08:56] {JoebiWan} gosh, i hope so
01[09:07] {@Threei}  looks like :)
[09:08] {dino} gm
01[09:08] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:09] {RonS} hello...NYSE Says Rule 48 Invoked For Market Open
01[09:09] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:10] {RonS} ...but is it from outer space?
[09:10] {RonS} Rule 48, a rarely-used rule that allows the NYSE to suspend the requirement to disseminate price indications at the open.
[09:10] {nemo} Well at least they didn't give order 66
01[09:10] {@Threei}  lol
[09:11] {nemo} wtf...the storm largely missed NYC
[09:12] {RonS} from snowmageddon to snowmagone...
[09:12] {nemo} where all the children are above average
[09:13] {nemo} can you tell I was ingesting anti-freeze on a continuous basis last night
[09:14] {RonS} dino, PH beat and raised
[09:14] {RonS} cat skinned
01[09:21] {@Threei}  serious beating futures take
[09:22] {nemo} oh jeez...he's slipping back into his yoda vernacular
[09:22] {RonS} lol
[09:22] {RonS} perfect
01[09:23] {@Threei}  excuse me? "slipping back he is!"
[09:23] {nemo} hope they do invoke rule 66
[09:23] {JoebiWan} lol
[09:23] {RonS} will bite...what is it?
[09:23] {nemo} the rule to wipe out the Jedi
[09:24] {RonS} ah
[09:27] {dino} ok
[09:28] {cosmo} that's rule 86 i thought
[09:29] {nemo} 66  add one more six...duh
[09:29] {nemo} 666
[09:29] {nemo} number of....?
[09:29] {nemo} cosmo has been ingesting his namesake methinks
[09:30] {cosmo} a namesake?
01[09:31] {@Threei}  (GR) Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem: There is no support for writing off Greece debt
[09:31] {nemo} look up the "cosmopolitan"
01[09:31] {@Threei}  wow... not everyone made it in the room this morning, storm or not :)
[09:31] {cosmo} ah
[09:31] {nemo} probably more the "or not"
01[09:31] {@Threei}  (UR) Russsia Govt officials: Situation in Ukraine has deteriorated \
[09:32] {dino} fxe
01[09:32] {@Threei}  duh
[09:32] {nemo} Shit, I'm in the frickin' storm's bullseye and I'm here...so far
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  118
[09:32] {cosmo} too stormy out...stay home and trade....
01[09:32] {@Threei}  no go
[09:33] {dino} why the big drop?
01[09:34] {@Threei}  Europe... MSFT...
01[09:34] {@Threei}  snow...
[09:35] {nemo} 202.63 S3 on spy
[09:35] {nemo} likely headed at least ther
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  90 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:38] {nemo} wow msft on the uptick rule
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:40] {@Threei}  IWM rinse
01[09:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .30 break
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:49] {@Threei}  bounces are not too convincing
01[09:50] {@Threei}  sorry... "too convincing bounces are not"
01[09:50] {@Threei}  MCD still looks good though
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:52] {@Threei}  closed last 1/4 on a trail
01[09:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
01[09:57] {@Threei}  If holds  32
01[09:58] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 6 V 5E
01[09:59] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  56 break
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 102.9 V 95.5E
01[10:01] {@Threei}  *(US) DEC NEW HOME SALES: 481K V 450KE
[10:01] {dino} added dfs calls
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:1  JPM
01[10:03] {@Threei}  looking for VXX entry again
01[10:04] {@Threei}  feels like SPY drop is coming
01[10:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  32 break
01[10:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:05] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:07] {dino} vdsi sm l .35
01[10:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .50 break
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:11] {nemo} this is vwap for fb could be two way
01[10:12] {@Threei}  I wouldn't short it here
01[10:12] {@Threei}  change to .40 break long
01[10:12] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:13] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:15] {nemo} 1 bar early
[10:18] {nemo} AAPL reports after the close
[10:18] {dptl} gm
01[10:20] {@Threei}  dp dug out of east coast snow?
[10:21] {dptl} :) yeah
[10:21] {dino} ph sm l .05
01[10:23] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .05 break
01[10:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[10:24] {@Threei}  let's crash, SPY
01[10:25] {@Threei}  what are you, stupid? don't understand which way is crash?
01[10:25] {@Threei}  no go
[10:26] {dino} out ph, .50, +.45 ty ron
[10:26] {RonS} np
[10:29] {nemo} couldn't push through the low, could test the other side of the range if we can get above 203
01[10:30] {@Threei}  somg
01[10:30] {@Threei}  double somg
01[10:34] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .50 break
01[10:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:37] {@Threei}  stop to .56
[10:37] {nemo} aapl bounce
[10:38] {nemo} if aapl drops the low indexes should follow
[10:38] {nemo} however this was S4 on appl...that's a stretch
01[10:38] {@Threei}  if that bid at .42 gives in, DAL is so dead
[10:39] {nemo} early support at .43, vwap just below .40
[10:39] {nemo} oil flat
01[10:40] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:41] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:41] {@Threei}  those huge bids or offers act like magnets
01[10:44] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:44] {@Threei}  somewhat makes up for that disgusting VXX rinse
[10:45] {JoebiWan} nice ty
01[10:45] {@Threei}  yw
01[10:46] {@Threei}  a few wins in the morning, but this one is the nicest so far
[11:08] {RonS} ph trying for green...thinking if holds 122 will run to 124-5
[11:17] {dino} damn, should've held
[11:18] {RonS} How many companies are going to beat and raise this quarter?  lol...this could be the only one...
01[11:18] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .75 break
01[11:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .83
01[11:24] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CCL  .10 break
01[11:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[11:42] {nemo} sheesh...XOP was the play
[11:44] {nemo} http://goo.gl/XziXEu
01[11:58] {@Threei}  meh
01[12:06] {@Threei}  The West sees a winter heat wave, while the East braces a blizzard
01[12:06] {@Threei}  looks like one coast has half-global warming, another - cooling
01[12:08] {@Threei} Short Setup: MACD  .60 break
01[12:08] {@Threei}  MCD
01[12:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[12:08] {nemo} hahahahahaha
[12:08] {nemo} short the crossover
[12:08] {nemo} aapl probably short below .45
[12:09] {nemo} holds .60
[12:11] {nemo} stop to .56
[12:11] {RonS} did hell freeze over?  BREAKING: Obama proposes offshore oil drilling from Virginia to Georgia
[12:11] {nemo} yeah, well he proposed to make Alaska off limits a coupla days ago
01[12:11] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[12:12] {@Threei}  he just picked the spot with no oil?
[12:13] {nemo} out
[12:14] {nemo} shit ticked out
[12:25] {dino} added dia calls
01[12:27] {@Threei}  watching IWM for long on pullback
01[12:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
[12:49] {nemo} btw the movie "Fury" worth watching
01[12:49] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[12:52] {nemo} "A walk among the Tombstones" also
[12:54] {nemo} so, we didn't get the high winds they were predicting, and the snow is pretty light so far, but we've got over 2 feet
[12:55] {dino} only 8" snow here, got lucky, but cold
[12:56] {nemo} yeah, we're supposed to enter into a cold period that rivals any in the past 40 years...global warming
[12:56] {nemo} we have had 3 years in a row of sub "normal" temperatures through all seasons
01[12:57] {@Threei}  55F here...
[12:57] {nemo} yeah, well you have palm trees in your back yard
[12:57] {RonS} 62 here
01[12:57] {@Threei}  and rhododendrons
[12:58] {dino} same here nemo, 3 years of record breaking cold
01[12:58] {@Threei}  and 2 fig trees
[12:58] {nemo} we didn't even have three days in a row of 90f this year
[12:58] {nemo} o.k. palm trees nearby
[12:58] {dino} last year broke some 80 year old record, most consequtive days under 10 f
[12:58] {RonS} ya, 1000 mi south
[12:58] {nemo} no, they have palm trees on Victoria Island Ron
[12:59] {RonS} fir palms
[12:59] {nemo} douche
[12:59] {nemo} SPY breaks the morning high, lookout
01[13:02] {@Threei}  [FB] Introduces new feature to allow tracking of impact of ad campaigns on user behavior
[13:03] {nemo} how are they going to tell when I put my fist through the monitor
01[13:03] {@Threei}  does it mean my habit to eat smoked turkey leg after reading ad for shave cream will be known to Gillet now??
[13:04] {nemo} Gillette...they're headquartered in Boston
[13:04] {nemo} or were
[13:05] {nemo} funny story, a buddy of mine's grandfather had the patent on the safety razor and sold it to Gillette
01[13:05] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  90 break
01[13:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[13:14] {nemo} XOP bottoming
01[13:14] {@Threei}  no go
[13:26] {nemo} XOP again
[13:26] {dino} out dia calls from earlier, +.37 / 22%
[13:27] {dino} vdsi to .66
[13:32] {nemo} VXX bounces 29ish
[13:32] {nemo} .20ish
01[13:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  119 break
[13:36] {dptl} gn see ya tomorrow all
01[13:36] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[13:42] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[13:42] {JoebiWan} ? it went to 119.03
[13:42] {nemo} yeah, but spy finnies and XOP weak
[13:43] {nemo} that was likely the top
[13:50] {dino} vdsi to .79
01[13:51] {@Threei}  it did? I must have slept through it
01[13:51] {@Threei}  yeah, you are right
[13:52] {RonS} wwe backflip
01[13:53] {@Threei}  not delighted by today, not getting rhythm right
[13:53] {RonS} missing the drummer boy eh?
[13:54] {RonS} pii unreal
[13:55] {dino} out vdsi .76, +.41
[13:55] {RonS} gj
[13:56] {nemo} SPY bounce point
[13:56] {dino} ty
[13:56] {dino} omer drop
[13:57] {nemo} omer pyled
[13:58] {nemo} I ronned myself
01[13:58] {@Threei}  8 news headlines per hour
01[13:58] {@Threei}  this is slower than on weekend
[13:58] {RonS} lol
[13:58] {nemo} shit...nothing about the Kardashian's
01[13:58] {@Threei}  no
01[13:58] {@Threei}  sorry
[13:58] {nemo} ...if ever there was a sign of the Apocalypse
01[13:59] {@Threei}  maybe this will compensate:
01[13:59] {@Threei}  - President Obama and the new Saudi Arabia King today discussed energy and stability of the oil market but did not discuss oil prices
01[13:59] {@Threei}  agree, this is not much worse than Kardashian
[13:59] {RonS} grocery checkout headline:  My Butt Implant Broke...
[14:03] {nemo} EBAY
[14:13] {RonS} this was tweeted w/ a picture...too funny:  Racing camels now have full body suits to help them go faster, I'm out
01[14:13] {@Threei}  http://dailyhealthpost.com/gut-bacteria-lose-weight/
01[14:17] {@Threei}  IWM, again
01[14:18] {@Threei}  119 break
01[14:19] {@Threei}  and this one should be 1:3er
01[14:19] {@Threei}  SPY chart totally looks like breakout and run
01[14:19] {@Threei}  .20 is a good magnet to reach and break
01[14:20] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:21] {@Threei}  1:2
01[14:21] {@Threei}  jw, consider it an apology for missed break and stop last time around :)
[14:22] {JoebiWan} lol ok
[14:25] {RonS} New Greek finance minister thinks the euro is like Hotel California: "You can check out, but you can never leave" http://bloom.bg/1CKeOXm
[14:25] {RonS} lol...You know a record blizzard didn't live up to expectations when my Canned Air for the keyboard is an effective snow-blower
01[14:26] {@Threei}  he must have read our room... we cited that analogy many times over last few years
[14:29] {nemo} VXX
[14:30] {nemo} long .21
[14:30] {nemo} stop under .15
01[14:32] {@Threei}  out on a trail
[14:32] {nemo} 1:1
[14:33] {nemo} market gonna' be sketchy because of aapl earnings tonight and FED tomorrow
[14:33] {nemo} stop to .18
01[14:34] {@Threei}  [TRP] (US) Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY): Would like to finish with the legislation on the Keystone XL pipeline by the end of the week
[14:35] {nemo} if VXX can consolidate, will creat another long entry here
[14:36] {nemo} must hold .25
01[14:36] {@Threei}  AAPL Apple Pay coming to vending machines and parking meters
[14:37] {nemo} should
[14:37] {nemo} and a hooker near you
[14:37] {nemo} vxx invalidated
01[14:37] {@Threei}  this will be very interesting to see, whether president tries to veto keystone and how it plays out
[14:39] {cosmo} The pipeline should carry finish product from the Alberta refinery
[14:39] {cosmo} finished
[14:43] {nemo} bottom of spy channel
01[14:48] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .97 break
01[14:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[14:49] {cosmo} CAT could come back
01[14:49] {@Threei}  they usually do
01[14:49] {@Threei}  if fed properly
[14:50] {cosmo} money in this case
[14:50] {cosmo} watching 80
[14:53] {nemo} msft long, sorry late
[14:54] {nemo} youch
[14:55] {nemo} out below .90
01[14:57] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:57] {nemo} wow they're trying to pulverize msft
[14:58] {RonS} throw it out the window?
01[14:58] {@Threei}  who could blame them
01[14:59] {@Threei}  if you set to find MSFT hater, you won't in all likeliness have to leave your cul-de-sac
[15:00] {cosmo} I'm on a one way cul-de-sac
[15:01] {cosmo} once you're in, you're in for good...
01[15:03] {@Threei}  hotel california? :)
01[15:03] {@Threei}  aka, EU
[15:06] {cosmo} David Gilmore: "There's no way out of here"
[15:10] {nemo} wow, this might actually work
[15:10] {nemo} aapl should short cover into the close
[15:14] {nemo} out msft
[15:15] {nemo} they just keep piling up the offers
01[15:15] {@Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/anton.gerashchenko.7/posts/801351619951687
01[15:15] {@Threei}  1:2  MCD
[15:17] {RonS} wwe breaking the shorts backs
[15:17] {RonS} +'
01[15:18] {@Threei}  hmmm
01[15:18] {@Threei}  OK... I guess I have no right to judge {G}
01[15:21] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:21] {@Threei}  out
[15:21] {JoebiWan} gj
[15:21] {RonS} a beaut gj
01[15:22] {@Threei}  ty
[15:24] {RonS} ma so old here can rember McDonalds hamburgers at 8 for $1
[15:24] {RonS} am
[15:27] {RonS} ...no Big Macs in those days
[15:29] {RonS} hmmm baba runing into earnings...aapl selling off
[15:30] {RonS} and typing has gone all to hell
01[15:30] {@Threei}  what else is new
01[15:45] {@Threei}  if IWM pulls back qyickly, may get one more trade out of it
[15:45] {nemo} once aapl and FED clear the decks, things shold loosen up
01[15:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  . 65 break
[15:48] {nemo} dino....mbly will be very interesting tomorow
01[15:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
[15:49] {RonS} mbly hearing 204 mil sh unlocked
[15:49] {nemo}  {nemo} dino....mbly will be very interesting tomorow
[15:49] {nemo} duh
01[15:50] {@Threei}  nah
01[15:50] {@Threei}  spotty read by me today
[15:51] {nemo} as I said...aapl reporting FED tomorrow
[15:51] {nemo} cloudy day
01[15:55] {@Threei}  ok... let's see what we can squeeze out of tomorrow's morning
01[15:55] {@Threei}  have a good evening!
[15:57] {dino} gn

Jan 26 2015

One of those cases where setup is envisioned and called in advance. Third win of the morning too. 

(Chart courtesy of brokerage)




Session Time: Mon Jan 26 00:00:00 2015
[08:58] {JoebiWan} gm
01[08:58] {@Threei}  jw :)
[09:03] {dino} gm
01[09:03] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {RonS} gm...hi there snow dude
01[09:15] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:15] {@Threei}  dashcam video from Mariupol... not something you see every day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbtD8yKd9yE
[09:18] {nemo} ahhh....probably won't be here tomorrow
[09:18] {dino} nemo, seems you and i are getting a pretty good snow storm
[09:18] {dino} about 3" down here already
[09:18] {nemo} we're getting at least two feet and blizzard conditions...I'm only 25 miles inland
[09:19] {dino} we're getting 14" and we just had 6" on this past saturday
01[09:19] {@Threei}  2 feet is serious...
[09:19] {nemo} at least
[09:19] {nemo} http://goo.gl/JmK7rg
01[09:20] {@Threei}  lived through snowstorm with 3-4, snowdrifts created up to 6-7 ft high banks against garage doors
[09:20] {nemo} scroll down to the blue bullseye...I'm right in the middle
01[09:20] {@Threei}  city was paralized for 4 days
[09:21] {nemo} oh shit...back in '78 I had a snowdrift right up to my upstairs bedroom window
[09:21] {nemo} we were shutdown for a week...took snowmobiles into Boston
[09:22] {ese} morning ladies and gentleman......pro D at my school so I can pop in but this will be it until last part of june
01[09:22] {@Threei}  hey ese
[09:22] {nemo} they brought in Terex earthmovers..remember seeing a MGB upside down...it was buried under snow, guy driving the rig never saw it
[09:22] {nemo} scooped it up and dumped it
[09:23] {ese} where was that nemo
[09:23] {ese} hey vad
01[09:23] {@Threei}  so Greece finally rebelled
[09:24] {nemo} A very cold air mass is poised to move south from the arctic late this weekend or early next week. This cold will likely rival anything we have seen this year and has the potential to be the coldest air we have seen in decades.
[09:24] {ese} what'd they do
01[09:24] {@Threei}  now we will find out how far EU will go to placate them
01[09:24] {@Threei}  elected anti-austerity party
[09:25] {ese} ahhhhhhh
[09:25] {RonS} wow stx
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -OCN +30% (response to Gibbs & Bruns in regards to RMBS investors)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ASPS +18% (OCN news)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -RMTI +15% (FDA approved Triferic)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -HWAY +15% (confirms exploring strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -AAMC +11% (OCN news)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -RKT +8% (combining with MWV to create a $16B packaging firm)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -DHI +7% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -GNRC +5% (strength attributed to upcoming northeast blizzard)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -LCI +5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CLF +5% (eliminating quarterly dividend)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -IBM +1.2% (laying off more than 100K employees of global workforce)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -RGP +15% (ETP merger)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -PRE -3.6% (confirmed merger with AXS in $11B merger)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -STX -1.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -NSC -1.2% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -MAT -10% (preliminary results)
[09:29] {RonS} mat ceo resigned
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  32
01[09:33] {@Threei}  change to .90 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:35] {dino} mat missed big too
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:35] {@Threei}  stop .94
01[09:36] {@Threei}  closed
[09:37] {RonS} guessing Barbie frozened...
01[09:37] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:39] {@Threei}  wow, it had more in it
[09:40] {RonS} asps changing symbol to yoyo
01[09:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .55 break
[09:41] {RonS} saw chatter here that ibm to announce layoffs of 100k this week...
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:41] {nemo} {10k
[09:42] {dino} yes ron, saw that
01[09:42] {@Threei}  [IBM] CNBC tech reporter Fortt says IBM layoffs probably not on the scale of 100K workers as reported in press earlier "$IBM not laying off 100K people as rumored. Its { 10K, evidenced by $600M charge they took last quarter"**NOTE: earlier, IBM said to lay off more than 100K employees (26% of global workforce) as early as next week
01[09:42] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:43] {@Threei}  stop to .59
01[09:47] {@Threei}  Russia warns West not to blackmail it over Ukraine
[09:47] {nemo} 126 long sso
01[09:47] {@Threei}  insolence is pulpable
[09:47] {nemo} stop under .90
[09:47] {nemo} partialed .11
[09:48] {nemo} they ain't playing nice today
01[09:48] {@Threei}  they rarely do
01[09:49] {@Threei}  watching IWM for double bottom
01[09:49] {@Threei}  want pullback under .20
[09:49] {cosmo} chess vs poker...
01[09:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .20 break
01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:50] {nemo} stop to .10
01[09:50] {@Threei}  thing of beauty, and called in advance
[09:51] {nemo} yeah, I entered before typing
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:3
[09:52] {nemo} out .41
[09:52] {nemo} think vwap will stop it
[09:53] {nemo} http://goo.gl/RLM3AW
01[09:55] {@Threei}  1:4, out
[10:04] {dino} dfs hl l .53
01[10:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MCD  .85 break
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
[10:12] {dptl} gm
01[10:13] {@Threei}  dp :)
01[10:13] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:30] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: -4.4 V 3.2E
[10:36] {dino} oil
01[10:37] {@Threei}  I am sure
[10:37] {RonS} water
01[10:37] {@Threei}  lol
01[10:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .80 break
01[10:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:41] {nemo} no sighn of momentum break in indexes
01[10:45] {@Threei}  change to .85 break
01[10:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .92
[10:45] {nemo} VXX .65 break looks interesting if it holds low
01[10:45] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:52] {nemo} VXX
[11:00] {dino} wdc sm l .00
01[11:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MAT  27 break
01[11:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[11:05] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:10] {RonS} June already?
[11:10] {nemo} they haven't indicted him yet?
01[11:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .35 break
01[11:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[11:17] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:29] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:29] {@Threei}  (close enough)
01[11:38] {@Threei}  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has urged Russia to stop its support for the separatists in the eastern Ukraine immediately
01[11:38] {@Threei}  Ah yes, Putin said, I'll get right on it
01[11:38] {@Threei}  why didn't I think of it myself
[11:40] {RonS} Putin: "Jens oughtta stick to being Japanese currency..."
[11:41] {RonS} hey Nemo...
[11:41] {nemo} what
[11:43] {RonS} you need to check out the Fox show:  Backstrom...funniest thing have seen in years
[11:43] {nemo} o.k.
[11:43] {RonS} un-PC to a fault
01[11:44] {@Threei}  closed VXX
[11:44] {RonS} "so, was the Indian a dot or a geronimo?..."
[11:44] {dino} when is it on ron?
[11:47] {nemo} CAT looks like setting up short
[11:48] {nemo} if it breaks lows, probably goes to .20s
[11:49] {RonS} dino, Jan 29th...can see the premiers on-line if get snowed in... :)
[11:49] {nemo} and if you have electricity
[11:49] {RonS} http://backstromonline.com/
[11:50] {RonS} ...when was the last time you saw a guy running around with a stogie in his mouth?
01[11:52] {@Threei}  The events in Greece are under the microscope this morning. European finance ministers have reiterated their non-committal stances regarding Syriza's demands for renegotiation, but the consensus seems to be that the EU is open to extension of debt terms and easing reform requirements.
01[11:53] {@Threei}  The unanswered question is what Syriza will finally ask for. Note that the Independent Greece coalition party, while more conservative than left-wing Syriza, is just as uncompromising in its demands for renegotiation.
01[11:54] {@Threei}  OPEC Secretary General El-Badri tried to call a bottom in oil this morning. El-Badri also said he was open to discussions with non-OPEC members to balance oil supply, warning that markets are oversupplied by 1.5 million bpd. He also said some OPEC upstream projects are being cancelled and that oil prices could rise to $200/bbl in three or four years if investment levels do not keep up.
01[11:54] {@Threei}  imbecile
[11:54] {nemo} I like the kid hanging from the bridge
01[11:55] {@Threei}  nemo, I understand ese is not coming to visit you just yet:
01[11:55] {@Threei}  As of writing, nearly 1,800 flights have been canceled nationwide and another 1,600 already have been canceled for Tuesday.
[11:55] {nemo} lucky for him
[11:55] {RonS} syriza... isn't that resin-tasting greek maple syrup?
[11:55] {nemo} that sucked ron
01[11:55] {@Threei}  there are maples in greece?
[11:56] {RonS} first maples in greece, then naples in italy
01[11:56] {@Threei}  oh boy
[11:56] {cosmo} canceling those flights should help fight global warming...
[11:57] {RonS} ...where's my meds...
[11:57] {nemo} where ARE my meds
01[11:57] {@Threei}  I kind of hoped maples are purely canadian trees... after all, we don't have olive trees here, would only be fair if Greece didn't have maples?
[11:57] {nemo} CAT going down
01[11:58] {@Threei}  when global cooling starts, you'll regret ever fighting warming cosmo
[11:59] {nemo} sheesh...we've had colder than normal winters and summers for the last 3 years
01[11:59] {@Threei}  doesn't matter nemo, propaganda machine doesn't turn around that quickly
[11:59] {nemo} we about to enter the coldest 10 day stretch in decades
01[12:00] {@Threei}  progression of propaganda:
01[12:00] {@Threei}  global cooling - global warming - climate change - climate instability
01[12:01] {@Threei}  cooling was not so cool anymore after some wqrm period, warming stopped being hot after some cooldown,
[12:02] {RonS} ...all Mark Twain's fault
01[12:02] {@Threei}  change sounded not so different since climate always changes,
01[12:02] {@Threei}  instability is currently holding up, for now
[12:02] {nemo} VXX
01[12:03] {@Threei}  (see what I did in all 4 cases? Ron's fault...)
[12:04] {nemo} Ron's a right-wing reactionary
01[12:05] {@Threei}  anything's wrong with that?
[12:05] {RonS} Twain:  : "everybody complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it"
[12:05] {nemo} did I say there was?
01[12:05] {@Threei}  I am cranky curmudgeon
01[12:05] {@Threei}  as such, I like reactionares
[12:05] {nemo} got nothing on me u uke
01[12:06] {@Threei}  thought this was what you refered to, Ron
[12:07] {cosmo} It's all Algore's fault...
[12:07] {RonS} yep, his 22,000 sq ft house
[12:08] {RonS} and jetting around
[12:08] {RonS} and constantly blowing hot air
01[12:08] {@Threei}  and planes dekivering speakers to all lying movie presentations
[12:08] {cosmo} And his karmic commupence has affected us all
01[12:08] {@Threei}  Convenient Lie
[12:10] {cosmo} comeuppance
[12:14] {nemo} VXX
01[12:18] {@Threei}  http://www.kyivpost.com/guide/people/ukraines-diana-harkusha-is-miss-universe-second-runner-up-378464.html
01[12:18] {@Threei}  good thing planes are grounded, nemo would be flying to Ukraine by now
01[12:18] {@Threei}  on Miami
[12:19] {nemo} that's a long way to go for trouble...I just go to the grocery store and let the MILFs try to pick me up
01[12:19] {@Threei}  or*
01[12:19] {@Threei}  do they?
[12:19] {nemo} yeah...happened again yesterday...tough to concentrate when I'm trying to keep track of my father
01[12:20] {@Threei}  think "what would Hank Moody do"
[12:20] {nemo} it's amazing how fast an 82 year old man can move
[12:20] {nemo} unfortunately, I don't live in a TV show
[12:21] {dino} lol
[12:21] {nemo} don't think the FWB would go for it either
[12:21] {dino} nemo working the frozen food section
[12:21] {nemo} The ex-german girlfriend wanted to visit last summer...that was turning into a problem
01[12:21] {@Threei}  alll those melons...
[12:21] {nemo} actually, it was the fruits and vegetables
[12:22] {nemo} I kinda' saw it coming, she starts talking to my father, I'm like...mmmmhhhhh
[12:22] {nemo} VXX
[12:22] {dino} out wdc 99.81, +1.81
01[12:22] {@Threei}  wtg
[12:22] {nemo} think it's a good bet for a long here
[12:23] {nemo} needs to get above .15 soon
[12:23] {dino} ty
[12:23] {nemo} looks like the tops might be in
[12:28] {nemo} oh cool...Bernie Kosar's daughter is a porn star
01[12:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .05 break
[12:29] {nemo} it never went under
01[12:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .98
[12:29] {RonS} Massachusetts governor announces MBTA service will shut down at midnight, no service Tuesday
[12:30] {nemo} No soup for you!
[12:30] {nemo} not sure I have enough vodka to get through the storm....Road Trip!!!
01[12:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:34] {@Threei}  1:2
01[12:37] {@Threei}  "If I'm nobody in this life and nobody is perfect, does that make me perfect?"
01[12:38] {@Threei}  stop .19
[12:39] {nemo} likely to test under .20, think that's the bottom though
01[12:48] {@Threei}  (US) Obama Admin releases plan to control healthcare costs in Medicare program by moving toward focus on qualitative care rather than fee-for-service - press - Health and Human Services says it plans to migrate health care spending away from costly fee-for-service charges and toward alternative payment models. Wants to move 50% of Medicare's payments to alternative payment models by 2018 (vs about 20% of Medicare payments currently going to healthcare providers with cost saving models today).
01[12:48] {@Threei}  - The goal is to align healthcare spending toward payment models that link payments to providers to effective and management of patient treatments, rather than the fee-for-service model that has been blamed for boosting costs and authorizing unnecessary procedures.
01[12:49] {@Threei}  interesting idea... can't imagine how it can be realized
[12:50] {nemo} oh jeez...53% of last 20 days
[12:50] {RonS} = 10.6 days
[12:51] {nemo} douche
[12:54] {nemo} yeah Ron...this show weird
[12:56] {RonS} Forbes reviewer said cbs dropped 'cause just too hot...
[12:57] {nemo} not quite mainstream network fare
01[12:59] {@Threei}  *(RU) S&P LOWERS RUSSIA RATING TO JUNK
[13:05] {nemo} oh jeez the paedophile is back
01[13:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  MAT  .90 break
01[13:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[13:40] {nemo} EBAY below .05 can be a short
[13:40] {nemo} stop above .10
[13:40] {nemo} two way?
01[13:41] {@Threei}  meh
01[13:41] {@Threei}  first stop today
01[13:41] {@Threei}  I like long EBAY
01[13:41] {@Threei}  maybe DKTK is better way to play it
[13:42] {nemo} nice bear flag
[13:42] {nemo} plus it's almost 2
[13:45] {nemo} markets moving up but ebay not...they come in probably works
[13:52] {JoebiWan} mcd
01[14:17] {@Threei}  The morning commute in West Vancouver, B.C. was tied up by a "slow-moving" beaver who decided to cross the road.
01[14:17] {@Threei}  Traffic at 15th Avenue and Bellevue Street was blocked as police tweeted urgent updates.
01[14:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
01[14:20] {@Threei}  .c 31
01[14:20] {@Threei}  If holds  31
[14:35] {RonS} oled took the pipe
[14:37] {dino} slow
[14:37] {nemo} relative volume very low...
[14:37] {dino} my scanners barely moving
[14:38] {nemo} good movie
01[14:38] {@Threei}  lol
01[14:45] {@Threei}  (CA) Canada Govt confirms known human case of H7N9 bird flu in North America in individual coming China; individual is recovering
01[14:58] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .95 break
01[14:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[15:01] {dptl} gn all see you tomorrow
01[15:01] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[15:10] {@Threei}  trying to decipher eod direction
[15:11] {nemo} this low volume likely means float
[15:13] {dino} took all day, but out dfs .76, +.23
01[15:15] {@Threei}  it was waiting for you to say it nemo :)
[15:16] {nemo} low volume making for jerky setups
01[15:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
01[15:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[15:22] {@Threei}  if dives under 119, will change trigger
01[15:34] {@Threei}  GKTK is still the way to go
01[15:34] {@Threei}  D
01[15:39] {@Threei}  come on, break .10
01[15:39] {@Threei}  and run
01[15:39] {@Threei}  fly
[15:41] {RonS} Feds charge 3 men in New York City with spying for Russia http://bloom.bg/1CIWg9Z
01[15:45] {@Threei}  meaning, we were onto them for years and now the moment is right politically
01[15:54] {@Threei}  stop to .99
01[15:54] {@Threei}  2 min to make up its mind
[15:55] {dino} gn all
01[15:55] {@Threei}  ok, scratchiong IWM
[15:55] {dino} time to plow driveway, about 6" down so far
01[15:56] {@Threei}  ugh
01[15:56] {@Threei}  take care dino
[15:56] {nemo} time to go to the liquor store
01[15:56] {@Threei}  thsnk you all, have a good evening
01[15:56] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:56] {nemo} maybe not
01[15:56] {@Threei}  hopefully
[15:56] {JoebiWan} cya all. gl on east coast

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Quantitative Easing, Redux
Fri, 23 Jan 2015 16:05 PM EST

The European Central Bank launched a quantitative easing program of its very own this week, pledging to expand its balance sheet by at least €1.1 trillion via purchases of Eurozone sovereign bonds. The ECB move had been extremely well telegraphed to markets but European equities rocked higher and the euro tanked on the news nevertheless (the EuroStoxx50 gained 5.6% on the week, EUR/USD plummeted to 12-year lows). The Shanghai and Hong Kong indices saw robust gains as the mixed 2014 Chinese GDP report gave investors hope that more PBoC easing might be right around the corner. More current data only highlighted China's slowdown: the January flash HSBC PMI reading suggested manufacturing could contract for a second consecutive month. In the US, equities made back most of their losses from last week and the 10-year UST yield consolidated below 1.85% while many European government bond rates hit new lifetime lows after the QE announcement. Markets also digested an influx of corporate earnings reports and 2015 outlooks. For the week, the DJIA added 0.9%, the S&P500 gained 1.6% and the Nasdaq rose 2.7%.

The ECB will purchase €60 billion of sovereign debt from Eurozone member states every month until at least September 2016. The program may very well go on longer, until, as Draghi said, "we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation." In a concession to German QE skeptics, both the ECB and member national central banks will buy bonds, sharing the risk of default. The Germans were hardly appreciative: Bundesbank President Weidmann rejected the new QE program and said it would be very challenging to hike rates when they were needed. The euro plunged after the announcement, with EUR/USD testing the lower end of 1.11, for 12-year lows. Some analysts suggested EUR/USD could go to parity soon. Yields on peripheral Eurozone debt plunged to all-time lows, while the 10-year bund yield dropped to a record low of 0.353%.

Less than a week after the Swiss National Bank yanked away its euro peg, markets were surprised by another central bank as the Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut its key rate just a day ahead of the ECB QE announcement. The Bank of Canada cut rates 25 basis points to 0.75% justifying the move on grounds of falling oil prices and slowing reduction of excess capacity. Less surprisingly, the Danish central bank cut its deposit rate to -0.20% and its lending rate to 0.05% to offset the ECB action. Meanwhile the minutes of the last Bank of England meeting revealed a big shift on the MPC: two former hawkish members changed their policy stances, saying the bank should hold off on rate hikes due to prolonged low inflation.

The IMF cut its 2015 global GDP forecast to 3.5% from 3.8% and reduced its 2016 global outlook to 3.7% from 4.0%. China and Japan were cut 0.3 pts and 0.2 pts to 6.8% and 0.6%, respectively for 2015, while the US was the only major economy to have its outlook raised. The IMF remarked that the dimming outlook worldwide underscores need for stronger policy action to boost growth, and that even the positive aspect of lower oil prices is offset by the broad slowdown.

Swiss officials were out in force defending their decision to drop the EUR/CHF floor. SNB Chief Jordan said the cap was no longer justified because the Swiss economy was improving and was never meant to be permanent anyway. Jordan acknowledged that the economic situation in Switzerland was more difficult after the decision while pleading that SNB monetary policy couldn't make everybody happy. Swiss Finance Minister Widmer-Schlumpf estimated that EUR/CHF at 1.10 was a reasonable level for the nation's exporters. EUR/CHF approached last week's low of 0.9749, prompting chatter the SNB would have to cut rates again.

The decline in crude prices slowed this week, with both WTI and Brent hovering around the mid-to-high-$40s range throughout the week. At Davos, OPEC Secretary General El-Badri asserted that oil prices would stay around $45-50 as global economic weakness kept prices low. Back at the ranch in Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah finally passed away after several weeks of rumors he had already died. Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the 79-year old brother of the king and a former Minister of Defense, was installed as the new monarch. Reports suggest he is in poor health and possibly has dementia, with the complicated royal family riven by factional disputes. Crude saw a brief rally on the confirmation of Abdullah's death, but returned to trend as Salman pledged to continue all of his predecessor's policies.

In earnings, oil services names Halliburton and Baker Hughes both topped market expectations in fourth-quarter reports, with solid earnings and very good revenue growth. Airlines Southwest and United Continental saw solid gains after both firms comfortably beat earnings expectations. US-traded Industrials Honeywell and General Electric gained after solid quarterly results. Shares of German software giant SAP dumped after the company cut its profit outlook through its 2017 fiscal year, while IBM sank after disclosing yet another quarter of y/y revenue contraction and some less than stellar FY15 guidance. American Express unveiled a plan to restructure, cutting 6% of its workforce. UPS skidded after cutting its FY14 outlook on greater-than-expected fourth-quarter expenses. McDonald's fourth quarter results were severely undercooked: the firm missed on the top- and bottom lines, while comps remained negative in all major regions. Netflix soared on good gains in subscribers, especially in international markets.

After a very mixed Q4 in China, there had been fears that China's 2014 GDP would miss both official and market expectations. The figure came in at 7.4%, beating the 7.3% consensus outlook but below Beijing's 7.5% target, the first time the official goal has been missed since 1998 and the lowest rate of growth in 24 years. The consumption component of GDP rose to 51.2% from 48.2% in 2013, reflecting continued rebalancing of the economy. December industrial production topped estimates to reach a 3-month high, as power generation beat the low power consumption figure estimated by the National Energy Administration last week. Later in the week, the PBoC injected liquidity into money markets via reverse repos for the first time in nearly a year in anticipation of Lunar New Year holiday cash demand. HSBC flash manufacturing PMI also beat expectations and improved to 49.8 despite remaining in contraction territory for the 2nd straight month. After a perilous 7.7% plunge on Monday due to regulatory scrutiny of margin securities at trading firms, the Shanghai Composite regained its footing, testing a 5-year high above 3,400 on Friday.

As anticipated, the Bank of Japan maintained its key policy tool to expand the monetary base by ¥80 trillion a year, while also extending its low-rate funding scheme by a year and boosting provision to each institution from ¥1T to ¥2T. The BoJ also kept its overall economic assessment, but raised its view on industrial output to state that it has bottomed. Accompanying the decision, the BOJ released its updated forecasts of growth and inflation, lowering the 2015 GDP target to -0.5% from +0.5% but raising its forecasts for the next two years. The CPI outlook was particularly less rosy for FY15/16, as Governor Kuroda lowered the target to 1.0% from 1.7% and effectively acknowledged that Japan would miss its 2-year time frame to return to 2% inflation. Speaking in Davos on Friday, Kuroda maintained there's still plenty of scope to adjust policy if needed.

Jan 23 2015

Two 1:4 trades and two scalps in first 30 minutes, not too shabby. First one was on SBUX short, second is presented on the screenshot:

Ending with another 1:4 on VXX, the best day of the uneven week.

Session Time: Fri Jan 23 00:00:00 2015
[08:50] {JoebiWan} gm
01[08:50] {@Threei}  jw :)
[09:05] {dino} gm
01[09:05] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:11] {RonS} gm...mea culpa dino, that input on fxe sucked
01[09:11] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:12] {RonS} ups wrecked
[09:12] {RonS} kmb wiped
01[09:13] {@Threei}  EUR/USD at fresh 11-year lows below the 1.1250 area.
01[09:13] {@Threei}  - Focus turns to the weekend Greek parliamentary elections to see if anti-austerity party takes over
01[09:14] {@Threei}  - Crude Oil initially spiked up almost 3% to near $47.80 after confirmed death of Saudi Arabia's King Adbullah despite the well-articulated succession plan. WTI gave back all of its gains after new Saudi King Salman stated that he would maintain the policies of predecessor
[09:21] {RonS} rcl ccl cruising
[09:23] {dino} lol
[09:24] {RonS} Expedia Buys Travelocity From Sabre for $280 Mln in Cash
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -INFN +15% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -VTAE +8.5% (priced 3M shares at $11.90)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ETFC +6% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MXIM +5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SBUX +4.5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LULU +4% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -MIK +2.2% (priced 18.8M shares at $23.52)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LNKD +2.2% (positive broker commentary)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LF -32% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -DWA -15% (restructuring plan & 5K jobs cut)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -UPS -7% (guided Q4 below estimates)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ZFGN -5.5% (priced 3.9M shares at $35)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -KMB -4.6% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ALTR -4.1% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FDX -2.5% (momentum from UPS news)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -FCX -1.6% (negative broker commentary)
[09:27] {dptl} gm
01[09:28] {@Threei}  dp :)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: SBUX  .80 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:32] {@Threei}  change to .85 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:33] {RonS} change to have a cup of coffee?
01[09:34] {@Threei}  one thing I surely hate about SBUX is their coffee :)
[09:34] {RonS} wow syf
01[09:34] {@Threei} Short Setup: SBUX  .90 break0 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  87
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:36] {@Threei}  out
[09:36] {JoebiWan} gj
01[09:36] {@Threei}  ty
[09:36] {RonS} a beaut thanks 3i
01[09:36] {@Threei}  maybe that'll teach you how to brew that crap, SBUX
01[09:36] {@Threei}  yw
01[09:37] {@Threei}  and btw, as it was not enough to kill such a great drink, they try the same with tea now, via crap they sell in Teatopia
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .35 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  late
01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .65 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:42] {@Threei}  stop .59
01[09:42] {@Threei}  half out
01[09:42] {@Threei}  .64 now
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) JAN PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.7 V 54.0E
01[09:45] {@Threei}  stop to .34
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:47] {@Threei}  P Seeing early call activityJan weekly calls active
[09:47] {cosmo} so coffee was a great drink before SBUX?
[09:47] {cosmo} and now its no more?
01[09:49] {@Threei}  not in their stores
01[09:50] {@Threei}  and then there is such thing as contagion - more people are taught to think this is how coffee should taste, and they buy that and demand that, so more shops follow the suit... getting the picture?
[09:50] {cosmo} I know their stores have a very characteristic odor about them
[09:50] {cosmo} unlike Pete's, etc
[09:53] {RonS} guess must be bad, sbux stock up 13,000% since 1992 ipo
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  P  .20 break
01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:54] {nemo} why is it up?
01[09:54] {@Threei}  two-suded
01[09:54] {@Threei}  sided
[09:54] {nemo} yeah, vwap just under 17
[09:55] {nemo} watch UPS
[09:56] {RonS} upi pulpating again
[09:57] {RonS} sorry uri
[09:58] {RonS} ups volume profile to the downside is cliffish
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) DEC EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.04M V 5.08ME
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) DEC LEADING INDEX: 0.5% V 0.4%E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:01] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:02] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:03] {@Threei}  will try for 1:5
01[10:04] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:06] {@Threei}  closed
01[10:23] {@Threei}  FDX Halted; reaffirms FY15 guidance $8.50-9.00 v $8.94e
[10:25] {RonS} FedEx: Outlook Assumes Continued Moderate Economic Growth and Modest Net Benefit From Fuel
[10:25] {RonS} lol
01[10:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
[10:35] {pamsv} vxx
01[10:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[10:35] {pamsv} oops wrong window
01[10:41] {@Threei}  stop to .39
01[10:41] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:45] {nemo} wake up Vad
01[10:45] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:45] {@Threei}  lol
[10:45] {JoebiWan} great morning, ty vad
01[10:45] {@Threei}  yw
01[10:45] {@Threei}  100%
01[10:45] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:46] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:47] {@Threei}  closed
[10:57] {JoebiWan} gotta run. cya all
[10:57] {dino} cya
01[10:57] {@Threei}  take care jw
01[11:33] {@Threei}  German Chancellor Angela Merkel has offered the Russian government negotiations with the European Union on the "possibilities of a cooperation in a joint trade area" in exchange for a comprehensive resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine
[11:35] {RonS} come to Colorado, we're already trading joints...
01[11:37] {@Threei}  joints?
01[11:37] {@Threei}  ah
01[11:37] {@Threei}  lol
[11:37] {nemo} spleef
01[11:37] {@Threei}  so... rebels declare they are going to push on with offensive
01[11:38] {@Threei}  EY commissions allowed member countries weapin supplies to Ukraine
01[11:38] {@Threei}  EU
01[11:39] {@Threei}  and Putin purges his inner circle, getting rid of olygarchs and keeping war hawks closer
01[11:39] {@Threei}  getting a feel where this is going?
[11:41] {dino} yes, unfortunately
[11:52] {dino} hlf spike
01[11:54] {@Threei}  HLF CNBC's Wapner: Post holdings's Stiritz (approx 8% holder) is buying more shares though not enough to trigger a new SEC filing; has not sold any of his stake
01[12:10] {@Threei}  Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the 79-year old brother of the king and a former Minister of Defense, was installed as the new monarch. Reports suggest he is in poor health and possibly has dementia, with the complicated royal family riven by factional disputes
01[12:10] {@Threei}  so... with Greek election over the weekend, will we see any drop toward eod?
[12:31] {nemo} I think it's a foregone conclusion, probably see vxx move though
01[12:34] {@Threei}  dunno... we exected the dame last Friday, never came to be
01[12:34] {@Threei}  the same
[12:34] {nemo} had a .50 upmove at the end of the day
01[12:34] {@Threei}  yeah, on last 30 seconds
01[12:35] {@Threei}  untradable
[12:35] {nemo} it was tradeable for those with brass ones
[12:38] {RonS} like brady talkin about his balls?
01[12:39] {@Threei}  underinflated?
[12:39] {nemo} yep
01[12:47] {@Threei}  LOL:
01[12:47] {@Threei}  Vegetarians live up to nine years longer. Nine horrible, tedious, meaningless, worthless, baconless, cheeseburgerless, meatless years.
[12:47] {nemo} They probably don't drink either
01[12:53] {@Threei}  another from the same guy: If anyone's interested, I am going to sign the books in B&N today after 2 pm, and till security escorts me out
01[13:23] {@Threei}  uh oh... we might need those wooden stakes, silver stakes and whatever else we find:
01[13:23] {@Threei}  (BR) Brazil Central Bank's Tombini: EU stimulus package will help revive animal spirits in Europe
[13:24] {RonS} some net guy said yesterday: who is left to do QE?  Cuba?
01[13:24] {@Threei}  lol
01[13:24] {@Threei}  Zimbabwe?
01[13:25] {@Threei}  wait...
01[13:25] {@Threei}  they don't have to, deflation is not their problem
[13:25] {RonS} oh Canada!...  but you guys have inflation...
01[13:25] {@Threei}  we so do
[13:26] {RonS} we do too, they just lie about it
01[13:26] {@Threei}  isn't it amazing how official data can differ from everyday's reality so starkly?
01[13:27] {@Threei}  sure, gasoline price drop can mask a lot of inflation in given time period
01[13:27] {@Threei}  but there is inflation, undoubtedly
[13:28] {nemo} VXX
[13:28] {nemo} sheesh, XOP
01[13:29] {@Threei}  I tried to calculate yesterday how much money fuel drop can save me, with assumption of prices staying where they are today. Came up with about $1400 - 1600 per hpousehold
01[13:29] {@Threei}  annually of course
[13:29] {nemo} XOP
01[13:29] {@Threei}  ?
[13:31] {nemo} break of .30 looks interesting
[13:32] {dino} inflation in things you need, deflation in things you want
[13:32] {nemo} I'd like to see deflation of my electric bill but that ain't happening
[13:34] {nemo} when does aapl announce?
01[13:34] {@Threei}  that's a good way to put it dino
01[13:35] {@Threei}  well, except fuel... this we need :)
[13:36] {RonS} but you live on an island, can't you walk everywhere? :)
[13:37] {RonS} get this my wife's sister and husband walked across Britain
[13:37] {nemo} IWM looks short
[13:37] {RonS} but he's a preacher so manybe he floated...
[13:37] {nemo} needs to hold below vwap
01[13:37] {@Threei}  well... I am not that heroic, I prefer driving :)
01[13:38] {@Threei}  unfortunately, mine is not this little catroonish island with one palm tree in the middle and beach all around {G}
[13:39] {RonS} lol
[13:39] {nemo} anybody get XOP...just went 1:4
01[13:40] {@Threei}  VLO *INCREASES DIVIDEND 45% TO $0.40 FROM $0.275
01[13:40] {@Threei}  cool call nemo
01[13:40] {@Threei}  nice setup
[13:41] {nemo} needs to hold .64
[13:41] {nemo} 46ish in cards
[13:44] {dino} gj
01[13:56] {@Threei}  VXX is tempting on 31 break but I'll resist temptation
01[13:56] {@Threei}  if it breaks will wait for a rinse
[13:56] {nemo} early yet
[13:57] {nemo} the other thing is aapl I think announces on Monday...it's the big kahuna in so many indexes, withou it being weak, hard for stuff to go down
[13:59] {RonS} these guys show tues amc but the aterisk means "unconfirmed":  http://www.estimize.com/
[13:59] {nemo} then it's Tuesday
[14:00] {nemo} It's #1 by weight in the Qs, S&P500, RUT1000
[14:00] {RonS} breifing.com shows tues as well
[14:00] {RonS} ie
01[14:08] {@Threei}  Tiesday according to TTN calendar
[14:09] {nemo} so appl will be bought into earnings
01[14:09] {@Threei}  notice what VXX did
[14:09] {nemo} which will apply upward pressure on the indexes
01[14:09] {@Threei}  broke, rinsed, and gave 1:1 from .90
01[14:09] {@Threei}  just as foretold
[14:10] {nemo} VXX
[14:10] {nemo} neds to hold above .05
[14:10] {nemo} needs
[14:11] {nemo} IMMHO
[14:11] {nemo} yeah, right
[14:12] {nemo} aapl bounce territory
01[14:12] {@Threei}  (UR) Pro-Russia rebels reportedly reject peace proposal in Ukraine and have begun an offensive - press - Rebel leader Zakharchenko: Launching a new offensive to forestall attack by Ukrainian army to push the government troops to the border of the Donetsk region and possibly beyond.
01[14:13] {@Threei}  a few real time reports over last couple hours, there are advances with heavy equipments in at least two major directions
[14:14] {dino} ukrained is screwed
[14:16] {nemo} support .04 for vxx
[14:17] {nemo} aapl can't get above .30 will likely test 113
[14:17] {nemo} SPY at vwap/channel support
[14:17] {pamsv} ok thanks guys - have a good weekend
01[14:18] {@Threei}  you too pam
01[14:19] {@Threei}  isn't it incredible, how rebels are armed with tanks, multiple rocket launchers, ground-air defense systems etc etc, yet Russia says it doesn't supply them
[14:26] {dptl} good weekend all see you monday
[14:27] {RonS} cya dp
01[14:27] {@Threei}  take care dp
01[14:37] {@Threei}  VXX pullback under .10 will deserve a buy probably
01[14:39] {@Threei}  http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-said-he-could-destroy-the-us-2015-1
01[14:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  XOP  .80 break
01[14:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[14:42] {dino} incy spike
[14:48] {nemo} VXX @vwap
01[14:50] {@Threei}  missed VXX
[14:50] {nemo} I didn't...look at aapl
[14:50] {nemo} test 113
01[15:05] {@Threei}  A lawmaker from the ruling United Russia party has offered his advice to Russians struggling to pay for food amid the country's soaring inflation: "Eat less."
01[15:06] {@Threei}  sounds about right
01[15:08] {@Threei}  drop started a bit too early
01[15:08] {@Threei}  starting to think rally into close
[15:08] {nemo} vwap
[15:13] {cosmo} I'm eating less, but it doesn't help. At some point you have to excercise more.
[15:13] {nemo} duh
[15:17] {dino} lol
[15:18] {nemo} when you eat less your metabolism slows down to compensate for the lower calorie intake partially defeating the purpose for the lower calories
01[15:18] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .15 break
01[15:18] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[15:19] {cosmo} Hibernate then...like bears
[15:20] {cosmo} good advice maybe for russia
01[15:28] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:43] {@Threei}  OK guys, ending for the week
01[15:43] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great weekend
01[15:43] {@Threei}  see you monday
[15:43] {RonS} u 2...