Market Week Wrap-up

Market Week Wrap-up

- European debt contagion got further out of hand this week, as investors liquidated assets, took refuge in dollars and USTs and markets sank lower. Coming into the week, a chorus of voices were sounding the alarm about the impact of the European crisis, further inflaming sentiment: Moody's warned that higher borrowing costs would be credit negative for France, Germany's BdB Banking Association warned that German local governments are already having trouble financing themselves and Goldman Sachs cautioned that sovereign risk is "spreading like wildfire." In the US, the Congressional supercommittee tasked with developing deep, structural reforms to the budget failed to come to an agreement. The result was expected, although it further damaged confidence. JP Morgan came out a cut their outlook on commodities to underweight and noted policy failures in the US and Europe have darkened the six-month outlook. With the EFSF bailout fund clearly faltering, markets were also reacting to the sense that officials do not have the proper tools to halt contagion. Indeed, German party officials warned that Germany did not have a 'bazooka' plan to deal with the crisis. The IMF proposed new liquidity lines, up to 24 months in scope, allowing nations to borrow against a multiple of their IMF quota to finance balance of payment needs, however analysts panned it as too little, too late. The European Commission floated several preliminary ideas for creating a euro bond system, although Germany, Finland and the Netherland's continue to categorically rule out euro bonds. The situation took a marked turn for the worse after a very disappointing German 10-year bund auction on Wednesday morning; in the auction,the Bundesbank was forced to buy 39% of the €6B on offer, leaving the sale "technically uncovered." Global growth fears were further exacerbated by a sub-50 reading in the November HSBS flash PMI reading for China and the revision lower in the second reading of US Q3 GDP. US Treasury prices were bid throughout the week from safe haven flows, though gains were modest spreads between US and European interest rates widened. The US 10-year yield remains below 2% and for the first time in more than 2-years the German Bund's yield exceeds that of the US Treasury's by more than 30 basis points. For the week the Dow was off 4.8%, the NASDAQ declined 5% and the S&P 500 lost 4.7%. This was the worst performance by the leading US indices during the Thanksgiving week since the market began observing the holiday in 1942.

- In US equity news, there were two notable mergers announced this week. Biotech firm Pharmasset agreed to be acquired by Gilead Sciences for $137/shr in cash, an 89% premium to the firm's prior closing price. The transaction is valued at $11B. Pharmasset is conducting clinical trials on promising hepatitis C medicines. Property and casualty insurer Alleghany signed a definitive deal to acquire reinsurer Transatlantic Holdings for $3.4B in cash and stock, for an implied deal value of $59.79/shr. This new offer values Transatlantic at nearly $5 more per share than Validus' latest offer, which may help Transatlantic prevent Validus' hostile takeover. In earnings news, investors were not enthusiastic about Hewlett-Packard's Q4 results. HP only just met expectations in the quarter, while its earnings forecast for Q1 and FY12 was strikingly weak, and the firm refrained from offering revenue guidance. Deere was a rare bright spot: the company firmly beat earnings and revenue targets in its Q4 report and offered a very bullish forecast for 2012, including very strong double-digit revenue gains for both the year and the first quarter.

- The triple whammy of the European debt crisis, US budget policy gridlock and global growth fears drove FX trading this week. Risk-off sentiment eventually benefitted the greenback and the yen, although the euro held up to a certain degree on Monday and Tuesday as markets watched the US Congressional supercommittee go down in flames. In the early part of the week the EUR/USD maintained a hold above 1.3450, despite the evident contagion and a very poor Spanish 3- and 6-month bill auction featuring yields at 14-year highs, well above 5%. The failed German 10-year bund auction on Wednesday sent EUR/USD definitively below the pivotal 1.3370 channel-line support area. Note that on Tuesday, CLS Bank International, the backbone of the FX trading settlement system, said it was evaluating various contingency scenarios in which the euro zone breaks up. 

- As the week drew to a close a combination of risk aversion and ECB comments sent the Euro to fresh 7-week lows against the USD and JPY pairs. The rating agencies continue to be active with sovereign downgrades with Portugal and Hungary cut to junk status by Fitch and Moody's while S&P cut Belgium's rating as well in the last 24 hours. The Franc0-German-Italian press conference failed to inspire any initial compromise by Germany on the issuance of joint euro bonds to help stem the debt crisis in Europe. Chancellor Merkel stuck to her guns in her opposition of such bonds.

- Kokusai Asset Management was said to have sold entire holdings of Spanish and Belgian government bonds in flagship fund. EUR/JPY cross hit six-week lows as its tested below 103.20. The big upswing in USD/JPY on Tuesday was said to have been due to some decent Japanese exporter interest at the 77.30 area, although the pair drifted back below 77.00 eventually. The pair nearly broke 77.60 on Wednesday after the failed German auction, and ended the week near that level after reports circulated that the BoJ said that have sent survey to major banks regarding fx intervention assistance. Also of note commentary out of the S&P expressed real concern regarding Tokyo's ability to make progress on lowering its debt levels weighed on the Yen, sending USD/JPY above ¥77.50. JGB yields have also risen, with 10-year at a 3-week high above 1%. Concurrently, constraints from the Thailand flood and recent strenth in the Yen saw Japanese economy slip back into deflation, as y/y core CPI fell into contraction for the first time in 4 months. Cabinet officials remained cautious yet defiant, with Dep BOJ Gov Yamaguchi stating financial market condition are still severe, but also attributing Yen strength to safety.


TradeTheNews

Nov 25 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Short day with a few nicely profitable trades.


Session Time: Fri Nov 25 00:00:00 2011
[08:25] {_optionman} good morning
[08:41] {Threei}  morning
[08:41] {Threei}  "good" part is depending on one's exposure to the market... :)
[08:41] {Threei}  with Italian 10 years at 7.34%...
[08:44] {Threei}  2-year 7.49
[09:03] {swill} what time is the market finished today?
[09:04] {Threei}  1 EST, 10 our time
[09:04] {swill} thanks. morning
[09:21] {RonS} gm everyone...qotd already?  Black Friday: Groupon offers 10% off Italian Bonds, but all shoppers are at Macys $$
[09:22] {Threei}  lol
[09:22] {Threei}  morning ron
[09:24] {_nocki} morning
[09:25] {Threei}  morning nocki
[09:27] {Threei}  some climb in SPY over last 30-40 min
[09:27] {Threei}  but I tend to think selling will be main theme today again
[09:28] {Threei}  btw, speaking of thinking,
[09:28] {Threei}  stumbled nto this gem while writing the course:
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:13] {Threei} for every someone who tries to put a floor, there is another someone who tries to put a ceiling...
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:13] {Threei} let them duke it out and take the side of the winner
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:14] {Threei} that was my (rare) attempt at thinking
[09:29] {Threei}  06[11:14] * Threei takes a bow
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:14] {nemo} does it hurt?
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:14] {Threei} very much
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:14] {nemo} sorry
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:14] {Threei} it's OK... self-inflicted
[09:29] {Threei}  that makes into the course for sure
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[09:30] {Threei}  half lot
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[09:31] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .90 break half lot
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .05
[09:33] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:33] {Threei}  FCX, change of plan
[09:33] {Threei}  .15 break trigger
[09:33] {Threei}  .25 invalidation/stop
[09:33] {Threei}  ok... invalidated
[09:35] {Threei}  nearing the top
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[09:35] {Threei}  if stays under .30
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 breaktarget about 1:4
[09:36] {Threei}  oops
[09:36] {Threei}  two in one
[09:36] {Threei}  SLW taregt about 1:4
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[09:36] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:37] {Threei}  FCX invalidated
[09:38] {Threei}  no news yet for this SPY spike
[09:38] {Threei}  SLW stays weak
[09:38] {thomcbell} qcom out Vad ;)
[09:38] {Threei}  1:1
[09:39] {thomcbell} plus 0.80
[09:39] {thomcbell} per wed comment
[09:39] {Threei}  nice
[09:39] {Threei}  gutsy too
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[09:40] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:41] {Threei}  (GE) Germany's Bundesrat (upper house) supports an EU-wide financial transaction tax (Tobin tax)
[09:42] {Threei}  FCX target 1:3
[09:43] {Threei}  come on SPY, roll over already
[09:45] {Threei}  SLW 1:2
[09:46] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:48] {Threei}  SLW 1:3
06[09:48] * pragmatic out SLW (no shares left to partial)
[09:49] {nemo} Hah!
[09:49] {Threei}  nemo :)
[09:49] {Threei}  FCX 1:2
[09:49] {nemo} How's the morning?
[09:50] {Threei}  SLW target hit
[09:50] {Threei}  out
[09:50] {Threei}  beautiful
[09:50] {thomcbell} beautiful Vad
[09:50] {Threei}  1:4 SLW, FCX 1:3 is coming
[09:50] {nemo} is it half a day or whole day?
[09:50] {Threei}  just one request thom if I may...
[09:51] {Threei}  using descriptions like "nice or beautidful" make sure it's clear you are talking about trades and not me
[09:51] {Threei}  I am neither {G}
[09:51] {RonS} 1 pm est close nemo
[09:51] {Threei}  half fay nemo
[09:51] {cipher} wtg vad
[09:51] {Threei}  day
[09:51] {Threei}  ty sir
[09:51] {nemo} I'm working on the last remaining Oktoberfest Bier
[09:52] {RonS} moving on to novemberfest?...
[09:52] {Threei}  rofl
[09:53] {nemo} Gotta' drink it while it's fresh, and I'm not driving this morning..hehehhehehe
[09:53] {nemo} In Maryland at the moment
[09:58] {thomcbell} nice niemo - its past noon in Germany
[10:01] {Threei} Short Setup: QCOM  .50 break half lot
[10:02] {Threei}  if stays under .60 scalpers, .65 day traders
[10:02] {thomcbell} like it vad
[10:02] {Threei}  QCOM trades are coming to the cinema near you - by popular demand
[10:02] {Threei}  half lot for the starters until we get more familiar with the way it moves
[10:04] {Threei}  no go
[10:04] {Threei}  SPY decided to retest day high it seems
[10:26] {_optionman} here
[10:26] {nemo} who cares?
[10:26] {Threei}  lol
[10:26] {Threei}  have another beer nemo
[10:29] {thomcbell} qcom still on radar vad
[10:29] {thomcbell} aapl getting hit hard here
[10:30] {Threei}  as but I see no clear pattern anywhere
[10:30] {Threei}  as = yes
[10:32] {thomcbell} right same
[10:33] {thomcbell} trades great
[10:33] {thomcbell} actually
[10:33] {thomcbell} the cash strippers buying value
[10:43] {nemo} Hope he has alot of vaseline
[10:43] {Threei}  have another beer nemo
[10:44] {nemo} way ahead of ya' vad
[10:44] {Threei}  no doubt :)
[10:47] {nemo} Paulaner Oktoberfest Maerzen....
[10:47] {nemo} brings back memories when I lived in Muenchen
[10:47] {nemo} Was my favorit brewery to fall out of
[10:50] {Threei}  (EU) Netherlands, Germany, and Finland Finance ministers plan to make statement at 11:15ET following ESM meeting - financial press'
[10:50] {Threei}  stay tuned
[10:50] {Threei}  25 min till we get nuggets of wisdom
[10:54] {thomcbell} looking at QCOM Here Vad - what would be the available setups
[10:54] {thomcbell} no double top available
[10:54] {thomcbell} that we would be looking for
[10:55] {Threei}  .70 breakdown earlier
[10:56] {Threei}  conmsolidation in that mini-range, breakdown
[10:56] {Threei}  kind of mini-DBI
[10:57] {thomcbell} aapl unreal
[10:57] {thomcbell} getting slammed
[11:01] {thomcbell} lvs43.09 break?
[11:02] {thomcbell} if stays below 42.20
[11:02] {thomcbell} i think Vad
[11:02] {Threei}  I think so
[11:05] {thomcbell} seems like a candidate for a time stop
[11:10] {thomcbell} covered half flat at break even 43.09
[11:10] {Threei}  marlket has no direction
[11:10] {thomcbell} 43.20 on balance lvs
[11:11] {thomcbell} and potential binary here at 11:15 no interest
[11:11] {thomcbell} flat
[11:11] {Threei}  (EU) EMU Finance Ministers at their upcoming statement will mention details related to the IMF - CNBC Europe citing source
[11:11] {Threei}  s- Note: The Netherlands, Germany, and Finland Finance ministers plan to make statement at 11:15ET following ESM meeting
[11:11] {nemo} mmmhhhh....
[11:11] {Threei}  let's wait out this silly time
[11:12] {thomcbell} agreed
[11:14] {nemo} vwap .70 IWM and 117.20 on spy
[11:14] {thomcbell} sbux may be long candidate if market improves
[11:29] {Threei}  GR) International Institute of Finance (IIF): Greece now said to be negotiating directly with banks on the bond swap details - financial press
[11:29] {Threei}  Greece calling for 25% NPV of new bonds, banks calling for 40%
[11:31] {nemo} btw...
[11:32] {nemo} I'm not as think as you drunk I am
[11:32] {Threei}  hmmm
[11:32] {Threei}  I need a drink to decode that
[11:33] {nemo} I see Italy's debt sales went well...
[11:35] {RonS} sick, but lol:  best part about Thanksgiving is eating until you want to vomit, then murdering someone the next day for a flatscreen
[11:35] {Threei}  lol
[11:35] {nemo} sounds like heaven to me...frankly, I see no need for the flatscreen excuse
[11:36] {RonS} rotflol
[11:36] {Threei}  (EU) Finance Ministers from Netherlands, Germany and Finland agree that treaty changes are necessary
[11:36] {Threei}  - Ministers will decide on Greece payout next week based on Troika reports; decisions also due Dec 9
[11:43] {RonS} hmmm, aapl at its 200 day sma
[11:48] {cipher} l ibm .55
[11:51] {cipher} out .70
[11:56] {Threei}  market's not impressed
[11:59] {RonS} classic...We should be harnessing $RIMM new 52-week lows and using them for an alternative fuel source
[11:59] {Threei}  {RIMM} that hurts you know
[12:00] {nemo} beer and hotfudge sundae is an interesting flavor combination
[12:01] {cipher} does anyone have a link for all ecn rebates for liquidity adding/removing?
[12:02] {Threei}  better ask broker
[12:02] {Threei}  it can vary from one to another
[12:02] {cipher} getting some conflicting info
[12:02] {nemo} doin' a few hundred thousand shares a day there cipher?
[12:03] {cipher} not yet, just getting started
[12:03] {Threei}  who are you starting with?
[12:03] {cipher} you mean what broker?
[12:03] {Threei}  yes
[12:03] {Threei}  or trading
[12:04] {Threei}  if I misunderstood "styarting" part
[12:04] {cipher} oh
[12:04] {nemo} well you misunderstand typing part
[12:04] {Threei}  always
[12:04] {Threei}  lol
[12:05] {cipher} been trading for little over a month now... that means I'm a newbie just starting out
[12:05] {Threei}  dcc me if don't wasnt to broadcast
[12:05] {cipher} that's what I meant
[12:05] {Threei}  yes... I mean the broker with whom you are trying to get your rebates straight
[12:06] {cipher} but I'm planning to start increasing size soon so ecn fees will start to become an issue
[12:06] {cipher} my broker is Nevis
[12:06] {Threei}  OK... dcc me please
[12:07] {nemo} they are always proportionally the same, that is unless you're trading sub-100 share lots
[12:19] {RonS} nflx racing to catch rimm...
[12:31] {_optionman} t
[12:37] {Threei}  *(BE) S&P CUTS BELGIUM TO AA+
[12:37] {Threei}  short at will
[12:39] {Threei}  (IT) Fitch: Italy probably already in recession; Takes rating action on Italian Medium-Sized Banks
[12:39] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Mersch: Bond purchases by the ECB are temporary; Cannot accept govts request for continued bond buying
[12:40] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Rehn: Leaders must do what is necesary for the Euro; there is no reason to speculate on a break up of the EMU: not expecting the Euro to 'fall down
[12:40] {Threei}  wanna bet Rehn?
[12:40] {Threei}  '- Italy will remain part of the Euro in the future
[12:40] {Threei}  again... wanna bet?
[12:40] {Threei}  - Notes that no amount of fiscal stimulus could solve the crisis
[12:41] {Threei}  this I agree
[12:44] {Threei}  *(BE) FITCH LOWERS RATING ON BELGIUM BY ONE NOTCH TO AA FROM AA+
[12:44] {Threei}  lol
[12:44] {Threei}  when it rains...
[12:49] {patience} ok, closed my tza position, 3k shares, don't want to hold over the weekend
[12:54] {Threei}  Ok guys
[12:54] {Threei}  let's have well-deserved weekend
[12:55] {Threei}  adventures are far from over
[12:55] {Threei}  next week will be just as interesting
[12:55] {Threei}  if not more
[12:55] {Threei}  have a great weekend, see you on Monday

Nov 23 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Nicely profitable day readable although activity died early. Still, TZA and other usual suspects did their job for us.


Session Time: Wed Nov 23 00:00:00 2011
[08:00] {_optionman} good morning
[08:30] {Threei}  morning
[08:38] {thomcbell} Vad - yesterday you were looking for buy setups - on monday you wanted to short the first bounce - what determines your initial bias'
[08:40] {Threei}  it's not necessary the same thing every time
[08:41] {Threei}  can't remember about Monday, that was beyond my memory span...
[08:41] {thomcbell} i figured - today will you state your reasoning for your initial bias
[08:41] {Threei}  lol
[08:41] {Threei}  yesterday it was mostly market pre-opening reaction to bad news headlines,
[08:41] {Threei}  it was lurching up,
[08:42] {Threei}  as if it were too tired of hearing them and wanted to bounce anyway
[08:42] {Threei}  signs of technical bounce coming...
[08:42] {Threei}  turned out to be very fleeting, but did provide us with a few plays
[08:54] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 393K V 390KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.691M V 3.621ME
[08:54] {Threei}  *(US) OCT DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -0.7% V -1.2%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: +0.7% V 0.0%E
[08:55] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar Goldman Sach analyst note on Euro: Recommends closing position on Euro longs (timing uncertain)- Goldman previously recommended being long the EUR/USD pair back
[08:55] {Threei}  on Nov 11th
[08:55] {Threei}  hmm... did Euro really gain since Nov 11?
[08:57] {Threei}  not according to my charts
[09:03] {Threei}  ah, I see... headline said "taking gains", but that didn't make it in the body of the news
[09:03] {Threei}  (BE) Belgium 5-year gov't yield moves above 5.00%, higher by over 40bps in session
[09:16] {swill} morning
[09:16] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:16] {RonS} gm everyone
[09:17] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:18] {patience} good morning
[09:19] {Threei}  patience :)
[09:20] {_nocki} morning
[09:21] {Threei}  nocki :)
[09:22] {Threei}  So, after all these troubles, falling governments, agonizing over various ways to save this and rescue that, we get this morning:
[09:22] {Threei}  - Greece Central Bank issued an interim monetary report which bluntly stated that the country faced the risk of an Euro Zone exit. Public debt was no longer seen as sustainable and country's Euro zone membership was at stake.
[09:22] {Threei}  - German Chancellor Merkel commented that money to defend the euro was limited and could not print money to defend euro. She added that EU Commission focus on euro bonds was inappropriate as it give the impression that the debt burden could be share and reiterated that joint euro bonds would not work... Lastly she... reiterated that there would be no sixth payment for Greece unless all parties sign the agreement
[09:22] {Threei}  - Moody's sovereign credit chief stated that he expected the credit picture in Europe to continue to be quite negative for some time to come
[09:22] {Threei}  - S&P: Euro region crisis might worsen in coming weeks
[09:22] {Threei}  - German Fin Min Schaeuble reiterated the view... that the origin of the crisis must be addressed (DUH!)
[09:22] {Threei}  - In recent months, deposits have been pulled from banks in countries including Italy and Spain. According to press releases, various large Spanish and Italian banks have had double-digit percentage drops in deposits from institutional clients.
[09:23] {Threei}  I could continue, but you get the picture
[09:23] {Threei}  rescuers, my a**
[09:27] {Threei}  opening volatility is likely to be nasty
[09:27] {Threei}  chart wise, FCX seems to be long with .10 break trigger
[09:27] {Threei}  but keep size smallish
[09:28] {Threei}  if loses 35, pullback to about .85 will be next area of interest
[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .10 break if stays above 35
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:32] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:33] {Threei}  come on already FCX
[09:33] {Threei}  you know you want 1:2
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1 finally
[09:34] {dino} out fcx .23 ty vad, +.12
[09:34] {Threei}  :)
[09:34] {ese} just popping in to say hello.......have a conference call to deal with 8:00pm this morning
[09:35] {dino} we are leaving behind lots of upside gaps
[09:35] {Threei}  hey ese
[09:35] {ese} hey vad
[09:35] {Threei}  staying dry?
[09:35] {dino} have a happy thankgiving ese
[09:35] {ese} you as well dino
[09:35] {dino} thx
[09:35] {Threei}  you know we are closed tomrrow ese?
[09:35] {Threei}  you tend to miss those things :)
[09:35] {dino} this will be 6 down in row for s/p
[09:35] {ese} not yesterday......rode my bike to school and back
[09:36] {Threei}  ouch
[09:36] {dino} 7 of 8
[09:36] {Threei}  LVS
[09:36] {ese} ahhhh  tks for the info
[09:36] {Threei}  watching for long on pullback
[09:36] {Threei}  closed tomorrow, half day Fri
[09:36] {Threei}  .40 - .50 zone for LVS entry
[09:39] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Nowotny: Euro bonds would be impossible without the backing of Germany
[09:39] {Threei}  - Comments on earlier German 10-year Bund auction (which technically failed): The difficulty of placing the issue is 'alarming'
[09:39] {ese} have a great thanksgiving all you south of the border types......cya monday
[09:39] {Threei}  (EU) Germany BDB Banking Assoc: The EU Commission's euro bond proposal is not convincing
[09:39] {Threei}  - Opposes stricter bank stress tests.
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: HBC  .30 break
[09:41] {Threei}  stop for scalpers .36, day traders .41
[09:41] {Threei}  LVS is coming there, don't be in a rush to jump in
[09:43] {Threei}  stop to .36 for day traders too
[09:43] {thomcbell} with market uncertainty - this lvs is so overvalued
[09:43] {thomcbell} still 30 times or something like that
[09:43] {thomcbell} bananas
[09:43] {Threei}  true
[09:44] {Threei}  "this neurotic pursuit of sanity is driving us all bananas"
[09:44] {Threei}  thank you David Gerrold for neverending stock of quotes for all thinkable situations
[09:44] {dino} they either get a printing press or the euro is done in a month
[09:45] {Threei}  they won't dino... I am convinced of it more asnd more each next day
[09:45] {Threei}  they can't
[09:45] {dino} starting to lean that way too, germany is pretty much saying, f it
[09:46] {Threei}  yeah... and if Germany elites try to change this course, country will explode
[09:46] {Threei}  oh come on HBC
[09:47] {Threei}  surely you can do better than this
[09:47] {Threei}  Michigan confidence numbers at 9:55
[09:48] {Threei}  hmmm
[09:48] {Threei}  let's trial to .31
[09:48] {Threei}  trail
[09:48] {Threei}  (US) MOody's affirms US rating following super committee failure
[09:49] {Threei}  out
[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .40 break
[09:49] {dino} stop hbc -.02
[09:50] {Threei}  LVS invalidated
[09:51] {Threei}  no news for this sudden drop
[09:51] {thomcbell} qcom gap down another 0.40 cents - may look to buy the rinse down there
[09:51] {Threei}  LVS is a long on .20 break chart wise
[09:51] {Threei}  but we are 4 min from numbers
[09:52] {Threei}  and market jumps up and down like anthelope with turpentine up its butt
[09:54] {dino} qcom gap 52.24 fwiw
[09:54] {thomcbell} thanks
[09:54] {dino} also 50.15
[09:55] {Threei}  *(US) NOV FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 64.1 V 64.5E
[09:58] {Threei}  market looks like going for breakdown
[09:59] {Threei}  arrrgh
[09:59] {Threei}  just started typing TZA .40 break alert
[09:59] {Threei}  watch for pullback entry
[10:01] {Threei}  will be quick, be ready... entry around .50
[10:01] {dino} s/p oct gap 1155
[10:01] {RonS} es new lows
[10:01] {_optionman} test
[10:01] {Threei}  EUR/USD Pair moves below 1.3370 level electing small sell-stop orders
[10:02] {Threei}  Note the 1.3370 corresponds to a 6-week channel support line that has held numerous times over the past week
[10:03] {Threei}  prepare half lot TZA
[10:03] {Threei}  ideally it dives under .50 and gives us entry between .40 and .50
[10:03] {Threei}  if not, then .80 break is entry with higher risk
[10:04] {Threei}  if go for it, keep stop under .65
[10:06] {dino} qcom sm l .01
[10:06] {Threei}  indecisive market... hopefully pullback it is, don't really want to play break
[10:06] {Threei}  and pullback in TZA would help dino's QCOM
[10:07] {Threei}  nice entry
[10:07] {dino} lucky
[10:07] {Threei}  sure
[10:07] {Threei}  it's only bad luck that is universal... good luck is limited to some lucky individuals :)
[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .85 break
[10:08] {Threei}  if stays under .95
[10:09] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:10] {Threei}  ok... making up my mind
[10:11] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
[10:11] {Threei}  not a scalp
[10:11] {dino} qcom stop flat greed got me
[10:11] {Threei}  capable for about 40 cents movement
[10:11] {Threei}  3 partials
[10:11] {Threei}  1:1
[10:12] {Threei}  first part out .94
[10:12] {Threei}  stop to .75
[10:13] {Threei}  accompanying play would have been FCX .95 short but had no time t alert and would probably have no time to execute both
[10:13] {Threei}  try to exit second part TZA closer to 37.10
[10:14] {Threei}  stop to .79 btw
[10:14] {Threei}  here
[10:14] {Threei}  .05 out second part
[10:15] {Threei}  stop to .84
[10:15] {Threei}  and target for the last piece is around .20
[10:16] {Threei}  beautiful
[10:16] {Threei}  out
[10:16] {Threei}  +.39
[10:16] {dino} nice
[10:17] {Threei}  ty
[10:17] {Threei}  SPY long hesitance smelled of panic coming
[10:17] {thomcbell} market participants not to psyched about having exposure on turkety day
[10:17] {Threei}  no...
[10:17] {RonS} lol...Fitch downgraded Turkey the day before Thanksgiving.
[10:17] {Threei}  lol
[10:18] {Threei}  realization that this thing may unravel very very quickly starts sinking in
[10:19] {Threei}  andf this is the case where living through something of this kind comes very handy - witnessing USSR colllapse, one can appreciate unbelievable speed with which these things may happen
[10:19] {Threei}  wow... TZA had more momentum
[10:22] {Threei}  look at that pathetic disaster of an IPO
[10:22] {Threei}  GRPN of course
[10:30] {Threei}  are you breathing over there?
[10:31] {patience} over where
[10:31] {Threei}  wherevr you are
[10:32] {patience} barely, i have 2k shares of tza held overnight, still have it
[10:32] {Threei}  TZA had a dollar in it
[10:32] {thomcbell} qcom showing relative strength now - no setup yet
[10:33] {thomcbell} in last 5 minutes relative strength ;)
[10:34] {dino}  lng l .60
[10:35] {dino} qcom sm l .01
[10:35] {dino} gpor sm l .60
[10:37] {thomcbell} aapl some fight after nasty am
[10:37] {thomcbell} flat out nasty
[10:38] {thomcbell} still no valid setup here on qcom
[10:38] {thomcbell} but i like it
[10:38] {thomcbell} sm long
[10:38] {thomcbell} small long
[10:42] {dino} out gpor .89, +.29
[10:42] {Threei}  took any profits on QCOM?
[10:42] {dino} no, greed again
[10:42] {Threei}  awww
[10:42] {dino} wanted .30
[10:43] {Threei}  gotta be humble on a long side today...
[10:43] {Threei}  nimble
[10:43] {Threei}  modest
[10:43] {dino} yeah, seeing thaty
[10:43] {thomcbell} i sold 1/2 0.27 and 1/4 at 0.15 other qtr at 0.09
[10:43] {Threei}  all things nemo doesn't want us to be
[10:43] {Threei}  wtg thomc
[10:43] {dino} hard to do when trading sm size
[10:43] {dino} gj tbell
[10:44] {thomcbell} y i did some decent size - stopped in thru 51.76
[10:44] {thomcbell} 5k
[10:44] {Threei}  nice
[10:44] {Threei}  I hereby pronounce you ese the 2nd
[10:44] {thomcbell} still was risky due to lack of setup
[10:45] {thomcbell} no man's land here
[10:45] {_optionman} Will the room be open FridaY
[10:45] {Threei}  half day, yes
[10:45] {thomcbell} like 51.80 for a re-entry if it settles and forms something resembling a setup
[10:45] {Threei}  may be not very productive, but these days are so vilatile, might catch some nice plays
[10:45] {_optionman} Thanks
[10:46] {thomcbell} tape is very scary in my opinion
[10:47] {Threei}  for bulls, yeah
[10:47] {Threei}  bears lick their chops
[10:47] {Threei}  and chops of bulls they can catch and restrain
[10:49] {dino} sm l sohu .48
[10:50] {cipher} +.19 sohu thx dino
[10:51] {nemo} How goes the rat race?
[10:51] {thomcbell} qcom down on htc report apparently - but htc lost share to aapl and samsung who are both large qcom customers
[10:51] {RonS} McClellan at '09 lows...-100
[10:51] {thomcbell} which mcclellan
[10:51] {nemo} Scottish or Irish?
[10:51] {RonS} harvey
[10:51] {nemo} rabbit?
[10:52] {dino} out qcom .29, +.28
[10:52] {thomcbell} ratio adjusted etc
[10:52] {thomcbell} good dino
[10:52] {dino} ty
[10:52] {RonS} lol...didn't think of that ...just trying to be a smart ass
[10:52] {thomcbell} i think it gets up to 52.80
[10:52] {dino} with me out of course
[10:52] {thomcbell} although wouldnt bet my lunch sandwich on it
[10:53] {nemo} where's Vad?
[10:53] {dino} out sohu ave .80, +.32
[10:53] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:53] {nemo} ahhh
[10:53] {Threei}  am I that invisible?
[10:53] {dino} wtf sohu
[10:53] {nemo} I've been here for two minutes and you haven't acknowledged my presence
[10:54] {Threei}  well, to my jmustification, I mentioned you while you weren't here
[10:55] {nemo} thank you
[10:55] {cipher} qcom s .45
[10:55] {nemo} negatively I hope
[10:55] {nemo} got a reputation to maintain
[10:55] {Threei}  of course
[10:55] {dino} dds sm l .75
[10:55] {Threei}  wouldn't dream of insulting you by speaking well of you
[10:55] {nemo} now that's a true friend...
[10:55] {Threei}  [10:43] {Threei} gotta be humble on a long side today...
[10:55] {Threei}  [10:43] {Threei} nimble
[10:55] {Threei}  [10:43] {Threei} modest
[10:56] {Threei}  10:43] {Threei} all things nemo doesn't want us to be
[10:56] {nemo} I'm all for nimble
[10:56] {dino} lol
[10:56] {nemo} Modest?
[10:56] {nemo} why should I be modest about my obnoxiousness?
[10:56] {Threei}  yes, but acknowldeging that would qualify as speaking well of you
[10:56] {thomcbell} Vad u ever read John Person's stuff?
[10:56] {nemo} No one brings it to the level of an artform like I do
[10:57] {Threei}  not only read... we held seminar together once
[10:57] {nemo} ahh, the doji trader
[10:57] {Threei}  well, he is much more than that
[10:57] {Threei}  but I did opick up that doji trick from him
[10:57] {nemo} yes, but that's one of his signature trades
[10:58] {thomcbell} yes the high close doji
[10:58] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/media.html, scroll down to Seminars,
[10:58] {thomcbell} on 15 minute
[10:58] {Threei}  second from top is the one
[10:58] {nemo} or high volume doji, take whichever way it goes
[10:58] {Threei}  he is very impressive trader and teacher, one of the best I've met
[10:58] {cipher} out qcom .19 +.26
[10:58] {thomcbell} y - i like his stuff - seems to fit in with a lot of stuff we do in here
[10:59] {dino} gj
[10:59] {cipher} thx
[10:59] {thomcbell} getting error message on that link
[10:59] {Threei}  hehe... it was a topic we stumbled onto while spoending time in LV... one would speak of something, another would remark something to the effect "exazctly the way I do it"
[11:00] {Threei}  make sure you copy without ,
[11:00] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/media.html
[11:00] {RonS} fwiw...this is the mcclellan mentioned:  http://tinyurl.com/7dg3f37
[11:02] {RonS} wow, groupon offer for 60% off soap making...
[11:02] {RonS} ...and i thought god invented p&g for that...
[11:03] {nemo} can I tell a dirty joke?
[11:03] {Threei}  janitor is frowning
[11:06] {nemo} levels playing well so far, but looks like another low might be coming:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=54de65ff-e3b9-42b9-af36-000e1d4aff12
[11:08] {Threei}  HSBC Holdings PLC Chairman: Not assuming that a financial transaction tax (tobin) will occur in Europe; will oppose the measures
[11:10] {dino} feels like it wants 1155 gap
[11:11] {nemo} that's alotta gap
[11:11] {nemo} s3 is 116.86
[11:11] {nemo} you're at s3 on IWM as well as extended pivot support and price level...be interesting to see how low they want to take it today
[11:12] {RonS} jef sm l .29
[11:12] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .25 break
[11:12] {thomcbell} so its unavailable to view Vad?
[11:13] {Threei}  if stays under .35
[11:13] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .20 break
[11:13] {nemo} looks like it's trying a db here, but I'd prefer spy to get to .9o area
[11:13] {Threei}  what is thom?
[11:13] {Threei}  sorry, lost me
[11:13] {thomcbell} the john person seminar?
[11:14] {Threei}  oh
[11:14] {Threei}  there is no post-seminar site
[11:14] {thomcbell} which seminar - Las Vegas?
[11:14] {Threei}  right
[11:15] {nemo} IMO might consider a SPY/IWM long in this area...if spy drops .86, could go a ways
[11:15] {thomcbell} how about all those SLW buyers - frantically buying up near the 200 sma
[11:15] {Threei}  1:1
[11:15] {thomcbell} crazy
[11:16] {Threei}  that page lists seminars I gave or took part in, links exist to sites that contain some kind of post-seminar report, video, slideshow etc
[11:16] {Threei}  like two bahamas ones for instance
[11:18] {dino} lol, the name of the white house pardoned turkey was corzine
[11:18] {Threei}  rofl
[11:19] {nemo} he may not be that lucky
[11:19] {nemo} anybody take the trade?
[11:19] {cipher} l ibm .28
[11:20] {nemo} guess not
[11:20] {nemo} .05 stop for .25 so far
[11:21] {_nocki} .
[11:21] {nemo} thought it was gnocchi?
[11:22] {Threei}  nocki, feel free to slap him into oblivion with something rough-edged
[11:22] {RonS} ...and btw do you pronounce it like the 3 stooges would?
[11:22] {nemo} watch spy, it breaks here, maybe add to tna
[11:22] {Threei}  he appreciates good violence, both giving and taking
[11:23] {nemo} usually I don't get good...frickin' amateurs
06[11:23] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a bottle of vodka with rough edges
[11:23] {Threei}  like this
[11:23] {RonS} ...'specially for mistres von bunny...
[11:23] {RonS} mistress
06[11:24] * nemo slaps _nocki around a bit with a large cast iron bowl of pasta dough
[11:24] {nemo} crissakes Vad, don't break it and waste the vodka
[11:24] {Threei}  no way
[11:24] {cipher} out ibm .53 +.25
[11:25] {dino} gj
[11:25] {nemo} tza looking better here, out of tna
[11:25] {Threei}  I can't tell
[11:25] {nemo} actually, considering the day and time, it's likely to be a chop fest
[11:25] {Threei}  SPY can drop or bounce here with equal odds
[11:25] {Threei}  or chop around
[11:26] {nemo} I would think it will retrace to the .40 area vwap almost there, but...
[11:27] {nemo} oy,  sensitive
[11:29] {nemo} that was cute price action
[11:29] {Threei}  wow
[11:29] {Threei}  read this piece of cr*p
[11:29] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Rehn: Need to move forward to the implementation of the ESM (permanent bailout facility), which is more robust than the EFSF as it is based on capital
[11:30] {Threei}  PERMANENT bailout facility
[11:30] {Threei}  they completely lost their mind in panic?
[11:30] {dino} lol, they are getting realistic
[11:30] {nemo} large central banks cannot let Keynesianism fail, else they lose their power
[11:31] {dino} govt cannot let deflation win or they fail
[11:31] {Threei}  (EU) Europe Banking Authority (EBA): Markets for medium- and long-term bank funding are frozen
[11:31] {Threei}  - Estimates that banks in Europe will need to refinance �700B for 2012
[11:31] {thomcbell} karl marx was 150 years early with manifesto - sorry Vad
[11:31] {dino} deflation=loss of all control
[11:31] {nemo} collapse of the banks
[11:31] {Threei}  lol thom
[11:32] {thomcbell} qcom a beast - angry growth investors fighting
[11:32] {Threei}  now, you remember the phrase: don't believe anything until it's officially denied?
[11:32] {Threei}  there:
[11:32] {Threei}  (AS) ECB's Nowotny: Fears of a downgrade of Austria's AAA rating are wildly exaggerated
[11:32] {thomcbell} u strip out the cash and blah blah blah
[11:32] {dino} me thinks he protest too much'
[11:35] {_nocki} having some internet problems, but nemo seem to like italian kitchen and is now hungry
[11:36] {Threei}  lol
[11:36] {Threei}  you'll fit right in...
[11:37] {Threei}  just don't forget to slap nemo once in a while, it keeps him motivated
[11:38] {dino} sks l .58
[11:39] {dino} ftk l .10
[11:39] {nemo} I like pain
[11:44] {Threei}  jellyfishy market here
[11:44] {Threei}  no clear direction
[11:44] {Threei}  waiting for something to shape up
[11:47] {nemo} lunch the Wednesday before Thanksgiving
[11:48] {Threei}  still, we should see more action today
[11:48] {Threei}  too much tension in the air
[11:53] {RonS} jef s/l to .49
[11:55] {Threei}  Election 2012: Generic Republican 46%, Obama 43%
[11:55] {Threei}  speaking of which... Ron Paul is killing me
[11:56] {Threei}  the most knowleadgeable man when it comes to economy, but when he opens his mouth on foreign policies, huge red sign "unelectable" fires up on his forehead
[11:59] {Threei}  notice how well SLW is doing while market essentially stalled
[12:03] {dino} cat sm l .06
[12:04] {RonS} jef stop to .59
[12:06] {RonS} out jef +.30
[12:06] {Threei}  wtg
[12:06] {RonS} ty
[12:07] {dino} gj
[12:09] {RonS} dino , you in lng?
[12:15] {dino} yes
[12:15] {dino} sorry was microwaving soup
[12:18] {RonS} dmnd v sm l .30
[12:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .80 break
[12:30] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[12:32] {dino} out lng .71 +.11
[12:32] {RonS} gj...lng fighting a natty gas spike today imo...
[12:32] {dino} cat stop -.33
[12:33] {dino} ty took hours
[12:35] {patience} .
[12:44] {_nocki} VAD - in the morning you said "signs of technical bounce coming...- turned out to be very fleeting, but did provide us with a few plays". What kind of signs told you that?  And, you play FCX, SLW very often. Is there a special criteria, that you like them so much?
[12:44] {Threei}  FCX and SLW, well, the deal with them is this:
[12:45] {Threei}  for the last year at least we have a situation where market is unusually uniform,
[12:45] {Threei}  meaning, stocks have less individuality than normally, and majority of them move with market
[12:45] {Threei}  so we play a lot of those that reflect market well
[12:45] {Threei}  and those happen to be SLW, FCX, LVS
[12:46] {Threei}  and of course TZA/TNA. FAS/FAZ
[12:46] {_optionman} d
[12:46] {Threei}  this changes, we used to have different basket
[12:46] {Threei}  and I am sure it will change at some point again
[12:47] {Threei}  yesterday's morning sings were simply market starting to uptick ignoring the latest batch of bad news
[12:47] {Threei}  which is usually a sign of technical bounce coming while in severely oversold position
[12:47] {dino} gg sm l .01
[12:47] {Threei}  just look at daily... seriously overstretched to the downside
[12:48] {Threei}  not that I would be willing to be a hero and go against the trend
[12:48] {Threei}  but in our very small timeframe such bounces can be found and exploited
[12:48] {Threei}  do I make sense?
[12:48] {_nocki} Yes - in your course, do you so explain things like thqat?- market behavior and so on?
[12:49] {Threei}  most of them, yes
[12:49] {Threei}  they are just scattered all over
[12:49] {nemo} Techniques of Tape Reading alsom
[12:49] {dino} gld spike
[12:49] {Threei}  soe in TTR
[12:49] {Threei}  some in Taoist Trader
[12:51] {_nocki} so the new videocourse will be ready in one month, around christmas?
[12:51] {Threei}  I'd say, Taoist Trader is the most comprehensive in that regard
[12:51] {Threei}  that's what UI am aiming for, yes
[12:54] {dino} broke vwap
[12:56] {Threei}  while working on it, I am running into funny questions, like:
[12:56] {Threei}  cup and handle formation is a breakout,
[12:56] {Threei}  I have a play where we used break of the handle bottom to short
[12:56] {Threei}  so, do I place it in the chapter on C&H whoch is subset of breakouts, or do I place it in chapter on reversals?
[12:57] {RonS} latter imo
[12:57] {_nocki} because very often seems to me that the setups you choose are depending on market behaviour, so it means that you have to be able to read market behaviour to know which setup's at what time to choose. So, it seems to me that a person must have a lot of expaerience to be able to do that and it is not so easy to put it in practise
[12:58] {Threei}  well, that's true for any course and any method
[12:59] {Threei}  market and trading is not something that can be simplified to a few fast rules
[12:59] {Threei}  whatever educational skeleton you obtain, there is still a stage of practicing it and internalizing it
[12:59] {Threei}  which is what we do here
[13:00] {Threei}  just think of it as of any other profession
[13:00] {Threei}  you go over books, courses
[13:00] {Threei}  listen to professors
[13:00] {nemo} 10,000 frickin' hours
[13:00] {Threei}  but when you are done with colege course, you are not a polished professional yet, right?
[13:01] {Threei}  you star applying it in practice, under the watch of instructor
[13:01] {nemo} nope...just an arrogant no-nothing moron with  degree
[13:01] {Threei}  hehe
[13:01] {Threei}  and gradually all those learned bits and pieces start clicking together
[13:02] {nemo} yeah, usually by the third refill of the prozac prescription
[13:02] {Threei}  Ron... took me a while to juggle the options but eventually I decided to put it in C&H section, going by logic:
[13:02] {Threei}  the course is about visual pattern recognition,
[13:02] {Threei}  so it should be in C&H by chart formation sign,
[13:03] {Threei}  and HOW we play it - well, that's what analysis of each chart are for
[13:03] {Threei}  none of the ways is perfect, but this feels a bit more fitting to the course intention
[13:04] {_optionman} Happy thanksgiving all
[13:04] {Threei}  you too
[13:04] {RonS} cya om...
[13:05] {RonS} np 3i...maybe in 2nd edition you can focus on 2 sided setups...
[13:05] {Threei}  oh, there are a few of them
[13:06] {Threei}  overall, it turns out to be a fun course
[13:06] {Threei}  each play has not just a chart with explanations,
[13:06] {Threei}  it also has a link to corresponding day in trading log and quoted comments at the time
[13:06] {Threei}  so it's kind of time machine
[13:07] {Threei}  and each play is not "after the fact" analysis
[13:07] {Threei}  everything is actual, shows the thinking at the time
[13:07] {Threei}  and comments as play developed
[13:08] {Threei}  takes time to dig it all out, but it's fun
[13:09] {RonS} wow, never seen anything like this before:  http://tinyurl.com/c7aj7qf
[13:10] {RonS} dmnd capit ongoing
[13:10] {dino} suicide of accountant auditor
[13:12] {nemo} wow...nature is unkind
[13:14] {dino} out dds .17, +.42
[13:14] {RonS} gj
[13:14] {dino} thx
[13:17] {_nocki} thx vad
[13:18] {Threei}  not sure for what but you are welcome :)
[13:22] {cipher} scalped dmnd +.33 thx Ron
[13:22] {Threei}  nice
[13:23] {RonS} wow, and dino says he is lucky...
[13:23] {dino} :D
[13:27] {_nocki} so, how is it to understand: why you make yesterday a lot of good trades and on monday the most trades where not working? On what is in your opinion depending if trades are working, because youaddapt your setups to market behaviour, but can anyway have a bad day
[13:29] {dino} wag spike
[13:31] {dino} sm s .25
[13:31] {Threei}  well, look at it this way
[13:31] {Threei}  no matter how good you are, you WILL have losing trades and losing days,
[13:31] {Threei}  reason for this is:
[13:32] {Threei}  market is not a environment of certainties, it's enviroment of probailities
[13:32] {dino} cov wag .75, +.50
[13:32] {Threei}  it's being moved by people's emotions,
[13:32] {Threei}  and those are not 100% certain
[13:33] {RonS} nice wtg
[13:33] {dino} ty
[13:33] {Threei}  so, you go with oddsm,
[13:33] {Threei}  odds
[13:33] {Threei}  and adapt as market changes
[13:33] {Threei}  you will win over any statistically valid number of samples if your system is sound
[13:34] {Threei}  but you can never predict outcome of any given play
[13:35] {Threei}  that's why we have stops
[13:35] {Threei}  they limit your losses on those trades that don't work
[13:36] {Threei}  and allow you to structure the odds in your favor
[13:36] {dino} sm s wag .85
[13:36] {Threei}  try to trade without stops - however great you are you WILL go broke
[13:37] {Threei}  real traders know no one wins all the time, thus they cut their losses
[13:37] {RonS} cvs on the other side of wag...
[13:37] {Threei}  loud and proud idiots who think they can win every trade, well... they provide roadkills for the real traders
[13:41] {dino} wag bstop to b/e
[13:41] {dino} to .45
[13:41] {dino} cov +.40
[13:43] {_nocki} so you mean, it is everytime possible to read the market wrong for some trades or for some days, but if you are an experienced trader you will read the market in most cases right?
[13:43] {dino} out sks flat, doesn't move
[13:44] {dino} out ftk .15, +.05 doesn't move
[13:44] {Threei}  pretty much, yes
[13:45] {Threei}  and the surefire way to get killed for ANYONE is to start believeing that you can win every time
[13:45] {Threei}  because as soon as you start believing this, you start taking trades on so-so setups and stop applying stops
[13:51] {Threei}  http://peterlbrandt.com/keynesian-ideology-the-real-smoking-gun-in-the-mf-global-default/
[13:56] {RonS} es trying to challenge low again...
[14:19] {cipher} .
[14:20] {dino} !
[14:21] {dino} sohu sm l .41
[14:27] {dino} out sohu -.05
[14:32] {dino} sohu holding well
[14:33] {RonS} oh boy...Report of 6.1 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Japan
[14:36] {dino} sm l .50
[14:38] {RonS} More: Earthquake epicenter off coast of Fukishima, Japan, felt in Tokyo; no tsunami alert posted
[14:38] {dino} vrnt spike
[14:39] {patience} where is my uranium list
[14:40] {RonS} in your radioactive drawer?
[14:40] {patience} yup, where the chocolate is stored
[14:41] {RonS} lol
[14:42] {RonS} ye olde jellyfish market eh 3i?
[14:45] {dino} dji -900+ pts and 7.5% since 11/15
[14:46] {RonS} ...heard 11th time since 1960 that market down this day
[14:46] {dino} ndx -9.6%, s/p -8.8%
[14:46] {RonS} :O
[14:56] {RonS} dmnd short cover rally
[14:59] {RonS} guess not...$DMND moving via DealReporter story. P&G still interested in selling Pringles to $DMND.
[14:59] {dino} but can dmnd afford it now
[15:00] {RonS} ...if the credit markets were decent, probably
[15:02] {dino} 07 all green
[15:12] {RonS} guess 3i got into the turkey early and fell asleep...
[15:13] {RonS} stupid comment since the canadian thanksgiving was what, patience, a month ago?
[15:13] {Threei}  lol
[15:13] {Threei}  i wish
[15:13] {Threei}  yeah
[15:13] {Threei}  3 weeks
[15:14] {thomcbell} aapl 370.01  vad
[15:14] {thomcbell} not enuf consolidation?
[15:14] {Threei}  yeah, I don't like such entry
[15:17] {thomcbell} VAD i feel like we should put qcom in there with LVS FCX SLW and RIMM - liquid and moves now
[15:18] {Threei}  sounds right to me
[15:25] {dino} stop sohu -.31
[15:27] {Threei}  no direction... can't can a grip on the market to find one last play
[15:27] {Threei}  but trying
[15:28] {dino} gut call, down
[15:32] {Threei}  I wanted to aree, then realized - my gut says down for couple years already :)
[15:33] {Threei}  good thing I trade on setups, not on gut, lol
[15:33] {thomcbell} qcom buy if it gaps down on friday am
[15:34] {thomcbell} aapl too
[15:34] {Threei}  well... depends
[15:34] {Threei}  what is they gap down 30 cents, then on the open EU announces dissolution? :)
[15:35] {thomcbell} stop order
[15:49] {dino} sohu rinsed
[15:57] {Threei}  bulls are not very enthusiastic eh
[15:57] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all, have a great Thanksgiving dinner
[15:57] {Threei}  see you on Friday
[15:58] {thomcbell} take care fellas
[15:58] {patience} have a wonderful Thanksgiving
[15:58] {dino} thx all, have a happy and safe thanksgiving
[15:59] {Threei}  wow
[15:59] {dino} rumors germans may go for euro bonds after their auction failed
[15:59] {Threei}  and I mean wow
[15:59] {Threei}  not exactly
[15:59] {Threei}  here is what they said:
[16:00] {Threei}  (GE) German press report suggests that German ruling coalition may be open to a euro zone bond in the future after Europe forges greater political and fiscal integration
[16:00] {Threei}  - REMINDER: German leadership has frequently noted that a joint euro bond is not a viable short term solution to the crisis but could be an option in the years to come after greater integration is achieved. Note that on 11/15, the German camp seemed to give some ground when Germany Govt Economic Advisor Bofinger ('wisemen') said its conceivable that the ECB should become backstop for bond markets if politics fail.
[16:00] {Threei}  in years eh? as if they have years
[16:00] {Threei}  anyway... no thinking allowed for the next 36 hours
[16:01] {dino} they may issue soon as stop gap, w/ideas in years towards integration
[16:02] {dino} i still lean towards the salvation thru inflation, but just slightly
[16:03] {patience} gov doesn't have a choice dino, inflation down the road.imo
[16:03] {Threei}  we are talking about Europe
[16:04] {Threei}  very different situation

Nov 22 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)


Very nice day with 7 wins out of 9 calls. Nothing to complain about, especially on a short week.


Session Time: Tue Nov 22 00:00:01 2011
[08:57] {nemo} hello...ow
[08:57] {Threei}  morning nemo
[08:57] {nemo} it hurts to type
[08:57] {Threei}  ?
[08:58] {nemo} I'm visiting relatives in NJ...the clicking of the keyboard keys is pretty loud
[08:58] {Threei}  oh... lol
[08:58] {nemo} check out how the levels played out yesterday?
[08:59] {Threei}  got too suckered in the action... active day
[09:15] {swill} Good morning
[09:17] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:21] {_nocki} Good morning
[09:21] {Threei}  nocki :)
[09:21] {jakob} good morning
[09:21] {Threei}  jakob :)
[09:24] {Threei}  gap down is moderate
[09:25] {Threei}  and decline overall is failry severe over last couple weeks
[09:26] {Threei}  while daily is broken and barring some radically good news we are in bear market, it's probably time for technical bounce
[09:29] {Threei}  SLW is green
[09:29] {Threei}  would probably be my first candidate for long
[09:29] {Threei}  LVS too, tends to do very well when market is not in panic mode
[09:30] {Threei}  SLW pullback in .80 area will be of interest for entry
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .90 break if stays above .80
[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break half lot
[09:33] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[09:34] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:36] {Threei}  SLW 1:1
[09:37] {Threei}  SLW 1:2, out in full
[09:37] {dino} out slw .11, +.20 ty vad
[09:37] {Threei}  :)
[09:38] {dino} out fcx .93, +.12 ty vad
[09:38] {Threei}  welcome, cool start to the day
[09:38] {Threei}  canceling my sell FCX
[09:39] {Threei}  should do better if breaks
[09:39] {thomcbell} aapl strong right out of the gate today
[09:39] {thomcbell} qcom straight up
[09:40] {Threei}  there... out FCX in full
[09:40] {dino} gj
[09:40] {Threei}  +.30
[09:40] {Threei}  ty
[09:40] {Threei}  (IT) Renewed chatter that ECB is again buying peripheral bonds
[09:40] {Threei}  good luck with that
[09:40] {Threei}  some want to have bigger shovel while digging their grave... shrug
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: TYC  .80 break half lot
[09:42] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[09:42] {Threei}  don't chase
[09:42] {dino} whr sm l .50
[09:42] {Threei}  if you could get .79 - .78, fine
[09:42] {Threei}  lower, no
[09:44] {Threei}  if going for second chance entry, stop is .86 this time
[09:46] {Threei}  LVS, what a bounce
[09:46] {dino} tyc stop flat
[09:47] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  44 break
[09:47] {Threei}  half lot
[09:47] {Threei}  invalidated for now
[09:49] {dino} dci sm l .85
[09:53] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .15 break
[09:53] {Threei}  if stays under .25
[09:54] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:56] {Threei}  TYC 1:1
[09:58] {dino} whr stop -.27
[09:58] {Threei}  *(US) NOV RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX:0 V -2E
[10:00] {Threei}  (US) PIMCO's El-Erian: If the Fed undertakes QE3, there will be some benefits but also collateral damage to the economy - interview
[10:00] {Threei}  - QE3 would further undermine the political reputation of the Fed, damage the dollar.
[10:00] {Threei}  - The Fed has taken pressure to act off of the rest of the US political class.
[10:00] {Threei}  you go boy
[10:00] {Threei}  tell them
[10:03] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .20 break
[10:03] {Threei}  stop above .30
[10:03] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:03] {Threei}  did I finally get it?
[10:04] {nemo} .90 level vwap
[10:04] {Threei}  exactly 1:3
[10:04] {nemo} .80 level pivot
[10:04] {nemo} tna worth a try here against spy
[10:04] {Threei}  yeah, I got it... 1:1
[10:05] {Threei}  partial, stop to .21
[10:05] {Threei}  scalpers be happy
[10:05] {Threei}  TYC 1:2 finally, out in full
[10:06] {nemo} fmcn pivot at .87, worth a look
[10:06] {Threei}  scariest thing ever...
[10:06] {dino} yeah
[10:06] {Threei}  you should see its volatility yesterday
[10:06] {Threei}  dollars in seconds
[10:07] {Threei}  even paper trading it was very risky {G}
[10:07] {Threei}  LVS 1:2
[10:08] {Threei}  second partial, stop to .11
[10:11] {Threei}  1:3, target hit
[10:12] {Threei}  that 4 out of 4... can I go home?
[10:12] {Threei}  don't rush to answer all at once
[10:13] {swill} wtg
[10:13] {dino} gj
[10:13] {Threei}  ty
[10:13] {Threei}  FMCN... I'll stay away from this thing
[10:16] {dino} dds sm l .53
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  44 break
[10:16] {Threei}  if stays above .90
[10:18] {Threei}  still valid
[10:19] {Threei}  1:1
[10:20] {Threei}  stop to .95, whether you took some off the table or not
[10:20] {Threei}  to .99 now
[10:24] {Threei}  1:2
[10:25] {Threei}  can't help but smile... LVS setup was the one on which I spent last two evening writing a chapter
[10:27] {Threei}  1:3, out
[10:28] {Threei}  if you had only half eye open, this hour paid for couple months of troom membership at least
[10:29] {Threei}  (IT) Italy 5-year Gov't bond yield moving higher by towards 6.90%, up over 30bps in session
[10:47] {Threei}  idiots' time
[10:47] {Threei}  (EU) Greece Fin Min Venizelos: ECB focusing on price stability has become a resulted in a deflation threat for the Euro zone
[10:52] {Threei}  Ron... missed 5 for 5 morning
[10:53] {RonS} ...trading platform was frozen due to corrupted files...
[10:53] {RonS} :(
[10:53] {Threei}  grrr
[10:54] {Threei}  who corrupted them? why did you let Corzine in your home?
[10:57] {dino}  s/p app yesterday lod
[10:57] {dino} next gaps down dji 11103, s/p 1155
[11:03] {Threei}  Egyptian politician: Ruling military accepts resignation of government.
[11:03] {Threei}  "Ruling military..." someone remind me, Egypt got rid of dictator, right? right?
[11:04] {dino} military took over
[11:04] {Threei}  but Egypt got rid of dictator
[11:04] {Threei}  got it
[11:04] {dino} governments are falling as fast as euro bonds
[11:04] {Threei}  I may be slow... but eventually I do get it :)
[11:05] {Threei}  in all these goverment changes the most interesting aspect is:
[11:05] {Threei}  who or what comes to rule
[11:05] {Threei}  so far, trend in Europe is:
[11:06] {Threei}  elected governing bodies or persons get reppaced by representatives of thr world financial elite
[11:06] {Threei}  which is quite curious turn of events
[11:07] {dino} ironic
[11:07] {Threei}  very
[11:09] {RonS} cpb in the soup
[11:15] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[11:16] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[11:18] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[11:18] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[11:19] {Threei}  not a scalp, aggressive entry for .40 break
[11:20] {Threei}  1:1
[11:21] {thomcbell} lvs kind of interesting too here
[11:21] {_nocki} .
[11:42] {patience} .
[11:42] {Threei}  your points being...?
[11:43] {_nocki} we are still here
[11:43] {patience} :)
[11:43] {Threei}  got it
[11:44] {Threei}  good point then
[11:44] {Threei}  'cause I sometimes wonder
[11:46] {dino} sohu sm l .15
[11:47] {dino} lng l .65
[11:47] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[11:47] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[11:50] {dino} out sohu .45, +.30
[11:50] {Threei}  nice
[11:50] {dino} ty
[11:52] {RonS} lol...the O taught them well:  Iraq to Impose Sanctions on Exxon Mobile for Doing Business With the Kurdish Region
[11:53] {Threei}  lol
[11:53] {dino} chk hl l .60
[11:54] {Threei}  next thing we know is Exxon imposing sanctions on one of their departments
[11:55] {Threei}  no need to say, SLW invalidated
[11:55] {dino} out lng ..77, +.12
[11:57] {dino} idcc sm l .80
[11:57] {dino} stop is .64
[11:58] {dino} chk stop is .44
[11:58] {dino} brb
[12:00] {cipher} l ibm .17
[12:00] {RonS} ...never seem to find that brb stock...
[12:00] {RonS} :)
[12:00] {Threei}  IMF CREATES NEW PROGRAM TO DEAL WITH MARKET STRESS; 6 MONTH LIQUIDITY LINE
[12:01] {RonS} lol...and what happens after 6 months?
[12:02] {RonS} qotd...:  Okay, Europe's closed, put on as much risk as you possibly can
[12:03] {Threei}  NEW LIQUIDITY LINES TO BE OFFERED FOR COUNTRIES USE TO DEAL WITH CRISIS
[12:03] {Threei}  - New credit line to help break contagion
[12:03] {Threei}  - Govts can use 6 month financing for short term balance of payments requirements
[12:03] {Threei}  - Liquidity line may by up to 500% of member quota
[12:03] {cipher} out ibm .79 +.62
[12:03] {RonS} gj
[12:04] {dino} gj
[12:06] {cipher} thx got lucky
[12:09] {RonS} wow...must be the italian O...Italy's new PM insists he can fix country
[12:10] {dino} lol
[12:10] {dino} let me guess, he will appoint a bunch of professors
[12:13] {RonS} lol...classic...Funny, that IMF press release was datelined from the North Pole, jingle jingle
[12:14] {RonS} rotflol...In France right now they're spraying champagne all over each other like the '86 Mets...
[12:14] {Threei}  lol
[12:15] {dino} seriously?
[12:15] {RonS} pretty sure it's a joke...
[12:15] {dino} i guess because they keep their jobs for 6 more months
[12:45] {dino} idcc stop
[13:05] {Threei}  *(US) TREASURY'S $35B 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS: 0.937% (record low yield); BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 3.15 V 2.90 PRIOR AND 2.83 AVG OVER THE LAST 10 AUCTIONS- Indirect bidders take 45.34% of competitive bids with 59.9% allotted at the high. - Direct bidders take 9.56%, primary dealers 45.1%. - Median 0.90%, low 0.819%
[13:05] {Threei}  record low yiled - on the back of EU worries I take it
[13:16] {Threei}  El-Erian: U.S. Economic Conditions �Terrifying�
[13:17] {dino} heck of a rinse on idcc, takes me out and runs a buck
[13:17] {Threei}  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-22/pimco-s-el-erian-says-u-s-economic-situation-terrifying-as-growth-slows.html
[13:23] {RonS} ya got an email today w/ arabl chatty cathy doll for christmas...
[13:24] {RonS} arab..."noone knows what she says 'cause they don't have the guts to pull the rip cord..."
[13:24] {dino} lol
[13:33] {RonS} All I want for Christmas is a Corzine "Perp-Walk"
[13:36] {RonS} value added...FOMC Minutes: Risks Include Spillover If European Crisis Worsens
[13:36] {Threei}  oh wow
[13:47] {_nocki} :
[13:49] {Threei}  that's double point
[13:55] {patience} in tza
[13:55] {Threei} Short Setup: TRH  .45
[13:56] {Threei}  half lot
[13:56] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[14:10] {_optionman} test
[14:10] {Threei}  passed
[14:15] {Threei}  missed fantastic day optionman
[14:15] {_optionman} day late, dollar short
[14:20] {Threei}  ASUS Transformer Prime is available for preorders
[14:21] {Threei}  who wants to give me a christmas gift, that's your hint {G}
[14:24] {RonS} lol...Wonder if those ETF engineers are thinking about creating an inverse ETF for the 2011 IPO's? $P $Z $GRPN $LNKD
[14:25] {Threei}  GRPN especially...
[14:25] {Threei}  IMO, that's a disaster coming
[14:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .75 break
[14:30] {Threei}  if stays under .85
[14:35] {Threei}  1:1
[14:35] {Threei}  that's 7 wins out of 7 resolved calls
[14:35] {Threei}  can I go home finally?
[14:36] {cipher} gj vad
[14:36] {Threei}  ty sir
[14:36] {nemo} ahhhhh...belt up Vad!!!
[14:38] {Threei}  just tried to pat myself on the back... guess what - shoulder is still dislocated from the past performance...
[14:39] {dino} cov fcx +.08, thx
[14:40] {Threei}  :)
[14:47] {Threei}  here comes first stop
[14:47] {Threei}  out TRH
[14:47] {Threei}  11 cents on half lot
[14:47] {Threei}  that was a sacrifice to tarding gods, so they are not too irritated
[14:55] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[15:00] {Threei}  no go
[15:00] {Threei}  told ya, let's go home
[15:07] {swill} need to go driving.  thanks for fun day Mr. Vad
[15:09] {Threei}  :)
[15:10] {Threei}  SLW was a rinse it seems
[15:15] {RonS} ...something for nemo?  Nokia $NOK down -7% today, even though their new phone is killer! Someone shoot me a text! http://t.co/r7GNSvqb
[15:15] {Threei}  this is one weird collection of loosely related, totally unrelated and contradictive points:
[15:15] {Threei}  (GE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: the Dec 9th EU summit will provide a clear signal to markets that have lost confidence in the Euro zone
[15:15] {Threei}  - reiterates the ECB cannot be used to finance govts.
[15:15] {Threei}  - Feels EU can deal with the crisis using existing tools, yet investor trust is lacking.
[15:15] {Threei}  - Debt levels in the US will cause concern.
[15:18] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Kocherlakota:- Sees no link between inflation and the size and makeup of the Fed balance sheet.
[15:18] {Threei}  seriously?
[15:19] {Threei}  (US) White House Advisor Sperling: Disappointed with growth levels
[15:19] {Threei}  Growth Levels: so sorry...
[15:21] {Threei}  jokes I come across today are especially mean...
[15:21] {Threei}  Give a man a match, and he'll be warm for a minute, but set him on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life
[15:22] {RonS} ...ya gotta luv the gallows humor of market participants:  Now might be a good time for $BAC to try that 1 for 10 reverse split, ya know - before Bruce Berkowitz eats a bottle of pills
[15:22] {Threei}  yikes
[15:22] {Threei}  lol
[15:25] {_optionman} good night all, see you tomorrow
[15:25] {Threei}  take care optionman
[15:26] {Threei}  hmmm
[15:26] {Threei}  HTC and Facebook partner to make a smartphone, code name "Buffy"
[15:27] {Threei}  who are the vampires?
[15:28] {RonS} lol:  I predict a Fifth Amendment-fest. RT @Street_Insider: House panel calls Jon Corzine to testify at MF Global hearing -Bloomberg $$
[15:29] {Threei}  heh
[15:30] {Threei}  Corzine: Obama made me do it
[15:31] {RonS} Obama:  Bush made him do it.
[15:32] {RonS} see everyone manana...have an appt...
[15:32] {Threei}  take care ron
[15:32] {Threei}  that was a good one
[15:43] {Threei}  http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/euro-zone-economies?fsrc=rss
[15:52] {Threei}  OK guys,. let's call it a day
[15:52] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:52] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:56] {dino} gj and gn

Nov 21 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Nicely profitable day, with unusually high percentage of invalidations. Other than that, most of trades worked like charm.


Session Time: Mon Nov 21 00:00:00 2011
[09:01] {dino} gm all
[09:01] {Threei}  morning dino
[09:02] {swill} good morning
[09:02] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:11] {_nocki} Good morning!!
[09:12] {Threei}  morning nocki
[09:17] {Threei}  (US) Super Committee member Kerry (D-MA): Disagreements are over bush tax cuts; everyone will face higher taxes if deal is not reached
[09:17] {Threei}  - Notes that democrats want tax cuts for 99%, and feels millionaires do not need another tax cut
[09:17] {Threei}  - Highlights willingness of Congress to bring the corporate tax rate to 25%; but if that is done, cannot have the bush tax cuts
[09:17] {Threei}  - Reminder: Earlier chatter circulated that there would be no deal reached at super congress at the upcoming announcement late on today
[09:17] {Threei}  noticed how they start using "99%" rhetorics?
[09:25] {ese} morning
[09:25] {ese} morning
[09:25] {ese} opps
[09:25] {ese} opps
[09:25] {Threei}  hmm
[09:25] {Threei}  ok... I am game
[09:25] {Threei}  hi
[09:25] {Threei}  hih
[09:26] {ese} mornin vad
[09:28] {Threei}  FCX, .75 support to break
[09:28] {Threei}  no...
[09:28] {ese} vad our power went out once last night.....how bout you?
[09:28] {Threei}  let's see if we get any bounces to short into
[09:28] {Threei}  fine here
[09:29] {Threei}  but we have wind warning, so all bets are off
[09:30] {ese} so much for the supposed big snow storm that was suppose to appear on the weekend
[09:30] {Threei}  argh FCX
[09:30] {Threei}  didn't wait for us, eh
[09:31] {Threei}  bounce istead
[09:31] {Threei}  half lot
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .50 break
[09:31] {Threei}  if holding above .35
[09:32] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:32] {Threei}  SLW is holding better
[09:32] {Threei}  not really ready yet
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .40 break
[09:33] {Threei}  if not losing .30 anymore
[09:33] {Threei}  target .70
[09:33] {Threei}  stop under .30 scalpers, .25 day traders
[09:35] {Threei}  SLW, getting more interested
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .30 break
[09:35] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:35] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:35] {Threei}  half out , stop to .35
[09:36] {Threei}  scalpers need no guidance
[09:36] {Threei}  they are out and laughing
[09:38] {Threei}  keep LVS on radar for possible double bottom if pullas back to 44 - 44.10 range
[09:39] {Threei}  FCX, scalpers win
[09:40] {pragmatic} RIMM double bottom ?
[09:40] {Threei}  could be
[09:40] {Threei}  .30 is support to hold
[09:40] {Threei}  .40 would be aggressive entry
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  RMBS  .30 break
[09:43] {Threei}  if stays above .15
[09:45] {Threei}  let's tighten it to .19
[09:45] {Threei}  market is too shaky here, don't want to give any stock too much room
[09:46] {Threei}  out
[09:46] {Threei}  RIMM 1:2
[09:46] {Threei}  1:1
[09:46] {pragmatic} out RIMM 1:1. Ty
[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break if stays under .70
[09:49] {Threei}  a little late
[09:49] {Threei}  don't chase
[09:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .40 break
[09:52] {Threei}  if holding above .30
[09:53] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:54] {Threei}  grr FCX
[09:54] {Threei}  got away
[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .33 break
[09:55] {Threei}  if stays above .25
[09:56] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[09:57] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:58] {Threei}  well, you know what's next
[09:58] {Threei}  plenty of invalidations, way more than usual
[09:58] {Threei}  better than stops of course
[09:58] {RonS} breakfast?
[09:58] {Threei}  lol
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) OCT EXISTING HOME SALES: 4.97M V 4.80ME
[10:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .85 break
[10:00] {Threei}  half lot
[10:00] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[10:02] {Threei}  target 34.10 - 34.20
[10:02] {Threei}  if SPY loses .59, that will be it
[10:02] {Threei}  .50
[10:02] {dino} sina sm l .76
[10:04] {dino} out .13, +.37
[10:04] {Threei}  wtg
[10:05] {dino} ty
[10:05] {Threei}  Jefferies Group Inc Reiterates that exposure to European debt remains insignficant, notes once again that the firm has a net short position in European debt - financial press citing letter to clients
[10:05] {Threei}  - Has $134M net short position in European debt.
[10:05] {Threei}  hmmm... weird statement
[10:05] {Threei}  half out TZA
[10:06] {Threei}  out in full
[10:06] {Threei}  too sharp
[10:06] {Threei}  held above stop level with amazing precision
[10:07] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[10:07] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[10:09] {Threei}  target 1:2, maybe more
[10:09] {Threei}  will have to decide on the go if getting there
[10:12] {Threei}  no ho
[10:12] {dino} tdg sm l .51
[10:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
[10:13] {Threei}  half lot
[10:13] {Threei}  stop under .70
[10:14] {dino} sohu sm l .47
[10:15] {cipher} ibm l .17
[10:16] {Threei}  1:1 TZA
[10:19] {Threei}  1:2, out
[10:19] {dino} 2202 filled
[10:20] {patience} good morning
[10:20] {dino} 11539 dji gap
[10:21] {Threei}  patience :)
[10:21] {_optionman} test
[10:22] {Threei}  passed... with flying colors :)
[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .20 break
[10:23] {Threei}  if stays above .10
[10:23] {Threei}  still valid
[10:24] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:25] {Threei}  play the book with usual partials and trails
[10:25] {ese} L DNDN .60
[10:25] {Threei}  unless scalping... in which case you need my instructions like third nostril
[10:26] {dino} csh sm l .00
[10:27] {ese} add an "a" and it has the appropriate symbol
[10:27] {dino} lol
[10:28] {ese} i like the look of SOHU's 1 min chrt
[10:28] {Threei}  come on SLW... while we are young
[10:29] {Threei}  SPY doesn't look healthy
[10:30] {ese} come on dndn.....a few more cents and you are my Clint Eastwood trade for the day
[10:30] {Threei}  may kill our play
[10:30] {Threei}  no news for this drop
[10:31] {Threei}  no news for this spike either
[10:31] {Threei}  very nervous market
[10:31] {Threei}  (US) Announcement by the Super congress will be made later today if no agreement is reached
[10:32] {Threei}  we got it, nop agreement, who cares... it was clear from the get-go
[10:32] {Threei}  out SLW
[10:32] {Threei}  new lows are coming for SPY
[10:33] {Threei}  DNDN's working, ese
[10:33] {Threei}  nice
[10:33] {Threei}  meanwhile in the bizarro world:
[10:33] {Threei}  American International Group, Inc Former AIG CEO Greenberg sues US govt for $25B on behalf of sharesholders; claims the taking of 80% stake in AIG was a constitutional violation, depriving shareholders of property rights
[10:33] {ese} BABY!!!!!!  out 1/2 dndn .72......2.5 K to go
[10:34] {dino} gj
[10:34] {ese} stop to .70
[10:34] {ese} tks
[10:36] {ese} out balance .70 +.10
[10:36] {Threei}  here come new lows
[10:36] {ese} GO AHEAD "Make my Day"  as Clint would say
[10:36] {Threei}  this threatens to turn into full blown panic day
[10:38] {dino} 11539 filled
[10:39] {ese} at some point in time we would expect the market to stop taking seriously the stupid comments that come out of idiots that work at places like Fitch don't you think?
[10:40] {Threei}  I don't think this is what spooks the market
[10:40] {ese} like that goof ball last week......another off the cuff europe is out of control comment....by them
[10:40] {Threei}  nah... you really think EU problems are not real?
[10:41] {Threei}  if Fitch etc stop commenting, everything will be a-OK?
[10:41] {ese} course they are but it's not the end of the world
[10:41] {Threei}  no, but end of EU and Euro - quite possible
[10:42] {ese} yup........but get on with it.......
[10:42] {Threei}  we already had rating agencies telling us everything was great, while bubble grew
[10:42] {Threei}  maybe it's high time for them to start telling the truth
[10:43] {Threei}  and when they say EU debt is non-repayble, and bond holders will get hurt, isn't it the truth?
[10:44] {ese} of course.....someone has to take the brunt of this
[10:44] {Threei}  well... that's what Fitch is saying
[10:44] {Threei}  and as far as I am concerned, they are saying only half of it
[10:44] {Threei}  actual situation is even worse
[10:45] {ese} my point is that is had been said a ton of times already......market has reacted....done end of story ....get on with it
[10:45] {Threei}  market starts waking up to the idea that EU won't be able to print its way out of it
[10:45] {Threei}  I view it differently... market hasn't reacted on it yet, not even close
[10:45] {Threei}  market stayed up in assumption that solution will come
[10:46] {ese} hmmmmmmm
[10:46] {Threei}  now it starts realzing it may not
[10:46] {Threei}  imagine EU/Euro collapse... do you think it would worth 1 few hundred Dow points drop?
[10:46] {Threei}  a few
[10:46] {Threei}  or more like a few thousands?
[10:47] {thomcbell} s&p futures down 200
[10:47] {thomcbell} kind of scenario
[10:47] {Threei}  easy
[10:48] {ese} in my opinion i think this is the higher low part vad.....major crisis was in 08/09 sept oct nov etc.....
[10:48] {Threei}  that's one point of view...
[10:48] {Threei}  another is:
[10:48] {Threei}  that was only the first leg
[10:49] {Threei}  while problems were more or less US-located
[10:49] {ese} hmmmmm  ya could be iguess
[10:49] {Threei}  now that the whole EU is on a brink of collaspe, we face a new can of worms:
[10:50] {Threei}  imagine bankikng system situation if the whol,e structure disappears
[10:50] {Threei}  and whole currency
[10:50] {Threei}  and project this to the economy which once again will be left with no funding
[10:51] {Threei}  then throw in China which clearly goes for its own hard kanding
[10:51] {Threei}  landing
[10:51] {Threei}  still think we are talking a few hundred points? :)
[10:52] {ese} lol......gotta trust someone though
[10:53] {thomcbell} what elliott wave guys are calling for is essentially the end of the system
[10:53] {thomcbell} spx 200
[10:53] {Threei}  well... to be fair, some of them were ca,lling for that for the last 30 years :)
[10:53] {Threei}  I doubt it will be that bad, but when real crisis hits, it sure will feel like that
[10:54] {ese} ya....that fellow.....Prechter?....bit of a freak i think
[10:54] {ese} he's lost alot of people alot of money
[10:54] {RonS} ya, they forget the good news...we will always have drummers...
[10:54] {RonS} :D
[10:54] {Threei}  new lows
[10:54] {ese} damn right
[10:54] {Threei}  panic is coming
[10:56] {dino} mkts down 7-9% in two weeks
[10:57] {dino} next gaps down 11103 and aa55
[10:57] {dino} 1155
[10:58] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[10:59] {Threei}  stop above .90
[11:00] {Threei}  1:1
[11:00] {Threei}  target 1:3
[11:02] {Threei}  1:2 close enough
[11:02] {Threei}  got back that stop earlier in SLW
[11:02] {Threei}  and then some
[11:03] {Threei}  stop for the last piece is .71
[11:06] {Threei}  let's go for 1:3, SLW
[11:06] {Threei}  be a good girl
[11:09] {Threei}  now, here is a great example of the reporting that I'd label "beyond useless"
[11:09] {Threei}  Dow Jones industrial average falls 300 points on Washington budget gridlock, Europe debt woes -AP
[11:10] {Threei}  mind you, if we were up 300 points, they'd report the same, only used "despite"
[11:10] {Threei}  Dow Jones industrial average gains 300 points despite Washington budget gridlock, Europe debt woes -AP
[11:10] {Threei}  can yolu see them reportring this?
[11:10] {Threei}  IMO, easy
[11:11] {Threei}  SLW, done with last portion
[11:15] {Threei}  In Europe, there is a general sense that European officials are helpless to staunch contagion as investors continue to yank money away from the continent. Moodys warned that higher borrowing costs would be credit negative for France, Goldman Sachs warned that sovereign risk is "spreading like wildfire" and Germany's BdB Banking Association warned that even German local governments are already having trouble financing themselves.
[11:18] {Threei}  watching TZA for possible long
[11:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break half lot
[11:19] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[11:20] {Threei}  invalidated
[11:21] {Threei}  trade with such tight stop could have been done on full lot, but we had decent morning, I don't want to push too much
[11:21] {Threei}  TZA is volatile one, let's keep it to half lot today
[11:25] {Threei}  while market is uncertain and no clear trades are in sight... we have a few new faces in the room, any questions guys?
[11:25] {Threei}  girls?
[11:26] {Threei}  OK, everything must be crystal clear... good
[11:26] {Threei}  either that or no one wants to talk to me...
[11:27] {Threei}  which is fine too, lol
[11:27] {_optionman} Yes, I do, when you said short set up SLW.80 break, stop above 90, target 1.1, does that mean when slw hits .80 you short
[11:27] {Threei}  when it breaks it rather
[11:27] {Threei}  as in: .80 bids are hit, bid drops to .79
[11:28] {Threei}  idea is, .80 is a support at the moment, ad break of it is indicative of the next move
[11:29] {_optionman} on tza long .80 break, you would go long first break above .80, but if it went below .70 before it went above .80 no trade?
[11:30] {Threei}  right, that's when we say "invalidated"
[11:30] {Threei}  holding above support is necessary condition for a breakout trade to be valid
[11:30] {_optionman} As a scalper would sell at a dime profit and loss?
[11:31] {Threei}  so, the call defines all the conditions
[11:31] {Threei}  right, scalper normally goes for 1:1
[11:31] {Threei}  it's not necessary a dime, we just try to pick trades where stop is around that
[11:31] {Threei}  but you could see some with 15 cents stops today
[11:31] {Threei}  so 1:1 would be reached at 15 cents profit
[11:32] {Threei}  addtionally, take a look at the section titled "how trading room operates"
[11:32] {_optionman} 1.1 means what?
[11:32] {Threei}  where a lot of these things are explained
[11:32] {Threei}  1:1 is risk/reward ratio
[11:33] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/
[11:33] {Threei}  scroll down to "how trading room operates"
[11:34] {_optionman} Thanks
[11:34] {Threei}  sure thing
[11:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .55 break
[11:35] {Threei}  half lot again
[11:35] {Threei}  if stays above .45 scalpers, .40 day traders
[11:36] {Threei}  scalpers 1;1
[11:37] {Threei}  day traders trail stop to .44
[11:37] {Threei}  let's keep it tight and safe
[11:38] {Threei}  day traders 1:1
[11:39] {Threei}  see the logic of the trade's structure, optionman?
[11:39] {_optionman} yes, thank you
[11:39] {Threei}  :)
[11:40] {Threei}  who partials, trail stop to .54 at this point, and aim for 1:2 to close position
[11:40] {Threei}  if SPY gors for new lows here you should be able to get that easy
[11:44] {ese} gotta go all....cya tomorrow
[11:44] {Threei}  take care ese
[11:44] {Threei}  careful with that wind warning
[11:44] {dino} cya ese
[11:44] {swill} see ya ese
[11:44] {Threei}  TZA baby
[11:44] {Threei}  let's go for that 1:2
[11:45] {Threei}  dino... movie report I promised
[11:46] {Threei}  it's not bad, better than I expected... I doubt though it's for those who never read the book, they might not understahd what it's all about
[11:46] {Threei}  kind if "illustration to the book, who read it, knows"
[11:47] {dino} ok, thx
[11:47] {Threei}  OK... out second half TZA
[11:47] {Threei}  oversat my welcome a bit
[11:48] {Threei}  but whatever, nicely profitable trade in any case
[12:19] {Threei}  was tempted by NVDA at 13.80... decided to skip it because of general market weakness at the time
[12:20] {Threei}  too bad
[12:21] {Threei}  look at this... hard to watch without either tears or hysterical laughter (bitter kind)
[12:21] {Threei}  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq698xQTBns&feature=share
[12:25] {_optionman} That's funny
[12:25] {Threei}  I still can't decide to laugh or grind my teeth
[12:25] {Threei}  tried both, hard to do and looks a bit Frankensteiny
[12:26] {Threei}  although wife didn't comment, so maybe that's just how I look on daily basis...
[12:27] {dino} out sohu .02, +.55
[12:27] {Threei}  wtg
[12:27] {Threei}  took patience
[12:27] {dino} yes
[12:34] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[12:34] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[12:36] {Threei}  invalidated
[12:38] {Threei}  market commentator memo: when in doubt, your way out is:
[12:38] {Threei}  'I don't think so, but it sure could be likely'
[12:39] {Threei}  I really need to learn to talk like this... much easier than setup with no way to pretend I was right if I am not
[12:39] {Threei}  let's see:
[12:39] {Threei}  FCX is not a short in my opinion but it sure could be likely that it is
[12:39] {Threei}  there... go ahead and try to trade on this
[12:54] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break if stays under .60
[12:54] {Threei}  .55 as agressive entry is possible
[12:55] {Threei}  if you go for it, stop is the same .61
[12:56] {Threei}  invalidated
[12:56] {Threei}  that becomes word of the day... don't remember so many invalidations in one day
[13:02] {Threei}  (EU) EU plans to implement additional control over budgets at countries receiving aid is facing difficulties - financial press draf
[13:02] {Threei}  t- Plans involved bringing struggling counties under oversight until 3/4 of their aid has been repaid
[13:02] {Threei}  - Measures being explored could include obliging countries to request aid if needed and having those countries consider austerity
[13:02] {Threei}  essentially takeover of sovereign states... unbelievable
[13:03] {Threei}  (GE) German Chancellor Merkel affirms opposition to joint euro bond issuance - CDU party spokesperson
[13:07] {thomcbell} lvs 43.66 entry Vad
[13:07] {Threei}  long?
[13:07] {Threei}  no
[13:07] {Threei}  not unless it consolidates closer to it for a while
[13:07] {thomcbell} k
[13:08] {Threei}  .56 I would consider
[13:08] {Threei}  there was ascending triangle l,eading to it
[13:10] {Threei}  FMCN...
[13:14] {Threei}  wow
[13:15] {dino} fmcn
[13:17] {Threei}  serious bloodletting
[13:18] {Threei}  if want some serious adrenalin play,
[13:18] {Threei}  small shares,
[13:19] {Threei}  get ready
[13:19] {Threei}  15 break
[13:19] {dino} muddy waters cov sell, fraud claimed
[13:19] {Threei}  yeah
[13:19] {Threei}  stop would be under .70
[13:19] {Threei}  nope, too early
[13:22] {Threei}  panic
[13:23] {Threei}  12.80 break
[13:23] {Threei}  no
[13:23] {Threei}  ummm... too hysterical
[13:23] {Threei}  lol, look at this
[13:27] {Threei}  mama
[13:29] {Threei}  halt
[13:29] {patience} .
[13:33] {Threei}  opened for the next leg of opanic, exaggerated and fueled by the halt
[13:33] {Threei}  idiots
[13:38] {Threei}  Egypt's cabinet submitted its resignation to ruling Army council
[13:39] {Threei}  reads lkike from some distopian novel
[13:41] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[13:41] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[13:45] {Threei}  this is what, third halt FMCN?
[13:47] {_optionman} what would stop be on fcx
[13:47] {Threei}  [13:41] {Threei} if stays under .90
[13:48] {Threei}  that signifies the stop level, just above .90
[13:48] {Threei}  and tells tyou where 1;1 will be
[13:49] {dino} wow went to 8s
[13:53] {Threei}  amazing eh?
[13:55] {Threei}  time for violence?
06[13:55] * Threei hits FCX over the head with 2x4
[13:57] {Threei}  covering half
[13:57] {Threei}  1:1
[13:57] {Threei}  scalpers are out
[13:59] {_optionman} I'm out with scalp, very small size, first day here learning
[13:59] {_optionman} Thanks
[13:59] {Threei}  nothing's wrong with that
[13:59] {Threei}  welcome
[14:14] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Lockhart: Productivity gains helped keep employment down
[14:14] {Threei}  yes... it's productivity' fault
[14:16] {Threei}  (US) Super commitee member Senator Baucus: Still moving forward, have a new idea that is being worked on at the super congress
[14:31] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[14:38] {Threei}  1:1
[14:42] {Threei}  unuisually high % of invalidations, but those that do trigger work nicely
[15:09] {dino} sina sm l .28
[15:12] {dino} stop is .999
[15:18] {dino} stop
[15:20] {dino} rinsed
[15:23] {Threei}  (SP) Spain Govt requesting that data providers change quotation benchmark for bond prices - FT
[15:23] {Threei}  huh?
[15:23] {Threei}  change 7 to 3 so it doesn't look scary?
[15:23] {Threei}  I need translation
[15:24] {dino} bank of spain takes over banco de valencia
[15:25] {Threei}  (SP) Spain PM-elect Rajoy: Austerity measures have been approved, it is Spain's duty to strengthen the euro
[15:25] {Threei}  well... approved by tone-deaf government or approved by the people?
[15:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .45 break
[15:30] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[15:31] {dino} chk going green
[15:40] {Threei}  let's trail to .39
[15:40] {Threei}  too close to eod, no need to risk much
[15:41] {Threei}  out
[15:46] {Threei}  1:1
[15:46] {Threei}  shrug
[15:52] {_optionman} Good night all
[15:52] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:52] {Threei}  have a great evening
[15:52] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:52] {swill} thank you
[16:00] {patience} ty vad

Nemo's Findings-week of 11/20

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Here are the levels for next week.  I'll be on the road so there won't be any mid-week updates.  Levels are tightening up again.  Holiday week.  Month changeover middle of the next week.  No predictions, but could be a recipe for chop chop chop if the Eurofantasy stays in tact.

Here are the links:

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=6045dbe3-666d-4f3e-8f34-bf4a0d9b348d

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=0b1157d3-d924-4a95-b660-87014f2c3566