Friday, January 13, 2012

Jan 13 2012

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Quiet pre-long-weekend day but solidly profitable one for us. CCL 1:3 short was especially pleasant easy trade.


Session Time: Fri Jan 13 00:00:00 2012
[09:15] {JK13} gm everyone
[09:15] {Threei}  morning jk
[09:17] {dino} gm
[09:19] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:20] {rambler} gm...
[09:20] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:21] {RonS} gm guys...something to watch:  http://tinyurl.com/7488dcg
[09:21] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:22] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:22] {Threei}  Beau :)
[09:24] {ese} gm
[09:26] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:26] {Threei}  Monday is day-off, correct?
[09:27] {rambler} not sure......
[09:27] {thomcbell} Anything on the china policy front - sorry ran late today
[09:27] {rambler} what are we celebrating......?
[09:28] {ese} no mrkt monday?
[09:28] {thomcbell} martin luther king
[09:28] {Threei}  MLK
[09:28] {thomcbell} all markets closed
[09:28] {rambler} ah so....
[09:29] {Threei}  market started slipping on Euro dowgrade concerns
[09:29] {dino} no price mlk
[09:29] {Threei}  lol
[09:29] {Threei}  Fitch concludes review of 6 states
[09:30] {Threei}  also,
[09:30] {Threei}  Dec 5th S&P on Europe stated that it believes that ratings could be lowered by up to one notch for Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, and Luxembourg, and by up to two notches for the other governments (including France, Italy, Spain, Portugal)
[09:31] {dino} sfly sm l .49
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break
[09:32] {Threei}  half lot
[09:32] {Threei}  stop above 42
[09:32] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:34] {Threei}  1:3
[09:34] {dino} gj
[09:34] {Threei}  was that a pure beauty or what
[09:34] {rambler} thanks Vad....
[09:35] {rambler} pure.....
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: ANF  .10 break
[09:38] {Threei}  half lot
[09:38] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[09:39] {ese} missed your sfly call dino ...nice one
[09:39] {dino} ty
[09:39] {ese} still goin
[09:40] {dino} out sfy .37, +.88
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .80 break
[09:40] {Threei}  wtg dino
[09:40] {dino} ty
[09:41] {Threei}  LVS target 1:3
[09:41] {Threei}  1:1 is here
[09:41] {Threei}  play by the book
[09:42] {thomcbell} fcx strong
[09:43] {dino} anf stop -.11
[09:43] {Threei}  ANF no go
[09:45] {ese} nice one dino sfly
[09:45] {dino} ty
[09:45] {Threei}  LVS scalpers win
[09:45] {dino} qcor luv today
[09:48] {ese} its at some kinda support
[09:50] {dino} wes sm l .50
[09:52] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .90 break
[09:53] {Threei}  if stays under 31
[09:53] {dino} csh sm l .00
[09:55] {Threei}  *(US) JAN PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 74 V 71.5E
[09:56] {RonS} pot sm l .30
[09:57] {ese} there just confident in Michigan right?...nowhere else in the country?
[09:59] {RonS} out pot -.10
[09:59] {Threei}  interesting question
[10:00] {dino} pacw sm l .35
[10:00] {dino} thin
[10:01] {RonS} michigan survey is US national...
[10:01] {Threei} Short Setup: CCL  .20 break
[10:02] {Threei}  stop above .30
[10:03] {dino} wes stop -.31
[10:03] {Threei} Short Setup: CFX  .50 break smaller shares
[10:04] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[10:04] {ese} was trying to make a funny
[10:04] {ese} did go over very well
[10:04] {Threei}  hehe
[10:04] {ese} didn't
[10:05] {Threei}  CCL 1:1
[10:05] {Threei}  target 1:3 for me
[10:05] {Threei}  stop to .25
[10:05] {Threei}  CFX invalidated
[10:06] {Threei}  stop to ,21
[10:08] {Threei}  (GR) Reports now that negotiators on the Greece private sector involvement (PSI) debt deal are now becoming less optimistic on potential for reaching a deal - financial press
[10:08] {dino} shocking
[10:08] {Threei}  1:2
[10:09] {Threei}  **Reminder: Earlier reports that Greece might submit law to force creditors in bond swap next week
[10:09] {Threei}  so much for voluntary haircuts
[10:09] {Threei}  (FR) France Treasury said to decline any comment on circulating reports of S&P sovereign downgrade of France
[10:10] {Threei}  stop to .15
[10:10] {Threei}  Euro 1.2665
[10:10] {Threei}  not seen since Sep 2010
[10:11] {Threei}  to .11
[10:12] {Threei}  how do they manage to keep straight face when say "it's voluntary... or we will make you"... beyond me
[10:12] {Threei}  CCL 1:3, over and out
[10:12] {Threei}  no one took it??
[10:13] {RonS} missed
[10:13] {rambler} missed....
[10:13] {pragmatic} I played
[10:13] {dino} missed
[10:13] {RonS} csh sm l .80
[10:13] {Threei}  it spent couple minutes above .20, how fdo you miss it...
[10:14] {RonS} lookin to take it on break and crashed too fast
[10:14] {rambler} was watching other call......
[10:15] {dino} saw drop then bounce to .23, thgt it was over
[10:16] {dino} 1280 filled
[10:16] {dino} 2350 ndx next
[10:21] {dino} csh stop -.31
[10:21] {dino} deck gap fill
[10:22] {Threei}  CFX... did you have to invalidate our short?
[10:22] {rambler} check CCL...
[10:26] {rambler} LVS double bottom...at 45
[10:26] {dino} alr sm l .72
[10:27] {rambler} whats your read on LVS Vad...?
[10:27] {Threei}  doesn't seem to be playing out rambler
[10:27] {Threei}  stays near 45 while SPY goes up
[10:27] {Threei}  can be a perfect trap:
[10:28] {Threei}  triggers at .10 just when SPY tops out
[10:28] {Threei}  so LVS reverses right after luring us in
[10:28] {Threei}  I'll stay away
[10:28] {dino} csh rinsed
[10:28] {rambler} or short 45.00 break when spy reverses...?
[10:30] {Threei}  that would have been my play if it didn't invalidate
[10:36] {Threei}  (EU)France and Austria said to be cut ONE notch to AA+ from AAA by S&P - FT
[10:36] {Threei}  - FT highlights that the EFSF does plan a bond sale on Tuesday, Jan 17 for �1.5B.
[10:36] {Threei}  **Note: Assuming this occurs, Germany would be the only remaining AAA rated country underwriting the EFSF program. With regard to France there was speculation about whether it would get downgraded by one or two notches, with many analysts saying a one notch downgrade was already priced into markets
[10:37] {Threei}  last AAA standing...
[10:38] {dino} psmt sm l .50
[10:38] {Threei}  (FR) France Govt now said to acknowledge receipt of notice that it will be downgraded by S&P - financial press
[10:38] {Threei}  - This latest report does not indicate whether it will be a one or two notch downgrade.
[10:56] {Threei}  from the land of imbeciles:
[10:56] {Threei}  (DK) Denmark Fin Min Corydon: Financial transaction tax (tobin) proposals may negatively impact jobs; proposals are not yet 'robust'- Supportive of financial transaction tax assuming jobs can be protected - Reminder: Denmark Minister on 1/9 reiterated support for the financial transactions tax
[11:01] {dino}  deck sm l ave .25 gappy
[11:02] {ese} hmmmmm   great minds.....was just lookin at that
[11:02] {dino} lol
[11:03] {dino} spanking vwap
[11:03] {ese} Deckers Outdoor Corp Sees FY sales reaching $2.4B by 2015 - ICR XChange Conf- International segment to account for 40% of sales by 2015
[11:04] {ese} decent newws release from the 11th
[11:05] {RonS} qotd:  Santorum's Iran Policy: I have no problem with them so long as Hormuz remains Straight
[11:05] {dino} lol
[11:06] {ese} that's funny
[11:06] {Threei}  lol
[11:10] {dino} out deck .75, +.50
[11:11] {Threei}  wtg
[11:11] {dino} ty
[11:15] {dino} ulta spike
[11:23] {dino} wow sfly had another 1+
[11:25] {dino} idix spike
[11:27] {RonS} took alr .70 to .95  +.25 thanks dino
[11:27] {dino} gj, i'm still in
[11:30] {Threei}  It appears that the S&P downgrades of euro zone sovereigns are imminent. Before the open of US trade, another round of France downgrade rumors made the rounds, however this time there was greater intensity to the reports, prompting reports in financial media and responses of "no comment" from S&P itself and the French Treasury. Then after 10:00ET, the French government was said to have acknowledged the receipt of notice that it will be downgraded by S&P.
[11:31] {dino} priced in imo
[11:31] {JK13} Vad do you think FCX is forming C& H in 1 min chart?
[11:32] {Threei}  looks good to me
[11:32] {dino} alr to .95
[11:33] {dino} out .00, +.28
[11:34] {JK13} thx
[11:34] {rambler} gj Dino.....
[11:34] {dino} ty
[11:39] {ese} later...cya monday
[11:39] {rambler} cya ese....
[11:39] {dino} cya
[11:39] {dino} tuesday
[11:40] {Threei}  take care ese, till tuesday
[11:40] {Threei}  something tells me he missed it
[11:40] {Threei}  and will be here on Monday wondering where the hevk everyone is
[11:44] {dino} brb
[11:48] {RonS} lol...China erecting a monument to the many fallen iPod assemblers - Tomb of the Unknown Solderer
[11:49] {Threei}  lol
[12:03] {dino} elgx spike
[12:03] {Threei}  SYMC Hacker said to have threatened to release software code later today - financial press
[12:03] {Threei}  what code?
[12:04] {Threei}  ah
[12:04] {Threei}  code for Norton
[12:11] {dino} dmnd lod
[12:20] {cipher} csh l .56
[12:26] {rambler} back in 60.....walk the pooches...
[12:36] {cipher} csh stopped -.05
[12:37] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[12:40] {dino} ipgp spike
[12:41] {Threei}  (EU) S&P said to be cutting Spain, Italy and Portugal by two notches - France press- Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Luxembourg will have their ratings maintained - Prior press reports indicated that France and Austria will be cut by 1 notch
[12:58] {dino}  dmnd sm l .12
[13:09] {dino} stop .89
[13:20] {Threei}  (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: should not put too much value on ratings agencies' opinions
[13:21] {Threei}  except when they upgrade you of course
[13:26] {dino} rovi sm s .25 break
[13:31] {dino} hmmm short stop filled .27
[13:41] {dino} rovi stop -.14
[13:46] {Threei}  lol:
[13:46] {Threei}  EU) Germany Chancellor Merkel: Will not comment on an event that has not yet occured- Note: Comments appear targeted at the rumors of imminent EU nations sovereign rating downgrade
[13:46] {Threei}  (FR) France Fin Min Baroin plans speech at 1900GMT - financial press
[13:46] {Threei}  I guess this means event will have occured till then
[13:48] {dino} bku spike
[13:49] {rambler} wow....
[13:49] {Threei}  halt
[13:49] {Threei}  explores sale of the company
[13:50] {dino} friggin' halts
[13:53] {dino} deck sm l .50 ave stop lod
[13:55] {dino} bku open
[13:55] {dino} vsm s .84
[13:57] {dino} cov .34, +.50
[13:58] {rambler} nice one Dino...was that a nasdaq stock?
[13:59] {dino} dk
[13:59] {dino} 3 letters dji
[13:59] {dino} why?
[13:59] {rambler} dosen't come up for me...
[14:00] {Threei}  BKU?
[14:00] {dino} on scanner? set naz and nyse
[14:00] {Threei}  or VSM?
[14:00] {rambler} sorry...VSM...haha...
[14:00] {Threei}  lol
[14:01] {rambler} that was a good one...
[14:02] {dino} deck stop -.26
[14:03] {dino} hit one miss one pattern
[14:07] {dino} bku vsm s .35 break
[14:09] {dino} do spike
[14:11] {dino} sohu spike
[14:12] {Threei}  (FR) France Fin Min Baroin: Confirms France will lose its AAA rating at S&P; France sovereign rating to be cut one notch, to AA+ from AAA - French television- France downgrade is not a catastrophe, France would have preferred to retain its AAA rating - Ratings agencies will not dictate French policies. No plans to announce any additional austerity measures but will continue to pursue its reform efforts
[14:13] {dino} lol, i believe rating agencies will eventually dictate policy
[14:14] {Threei}  whole thing is so bozarre, I can believe anything
[14:14] {Threei}  bizarre
[14:16] {Threei}  lol:
[14:16] {Threei}  Parisians contemplate instituting mandatory sixteen hour work week to bolster national credit rating - Sources
[14:17] {dino} roflol
[14:17] {Beau} now that is bizarre or even bozzare
[14:17] {dino} a greek, spaniard, and italian go into a bar. who picks up the tab?
[14:17] {Threei}  both
[14:17] {Threei}  or either
[14:18] {rambler} only in France.....could that make sense..
[14:18] {dino} a greman
[14:18] {Threei}  german?
[14:18] {Threei}  lol
[14:18] {rambler} lol
[14:21] {dino} bku spike
[14:22] {RonS} byi blood
[14:22] {dino} vsm s .60
[14:23] {dino} byi gap 40.07 area
[14:26] {dino} pacw to b/e
[14:34] {dino} pru spike
[14:35] {dino} too fast
[14:37] {dino} out pacw .46 ave +.11
[14:37] {rambler} way to hang in there Dino.....
[14:38] {Threei}  (IT) Italy Govt now said to have been informed of imminent downgrade from S&P
[14:38] {dino} lol rambler, took all day
[14:47] {dino} seac drop
[14:50] {Threei}  CFO leaving
[14:56] {dino} bku to .50
[14:56] {dino} cov +.10
[14:58] {dino} that was my dumb trade of the day, had .44 on it but got greedy
[14:59] {dino} all dayer out psmt .81 +.31
[14:59] {RonS} gj
[14:59] {dino} ty
[15:06] {RonS} Have a good weekend everyone..see you Tuesday
[15:06] {Threei}  have a good one ron
[15:06] {rambler} cya Ron....
[15:13] {dino} ugh bku
[15:24] {dino} tsla drop
[15:27] {dino} news?
[15:28] {Threei}  yes
[15:29] {rambler} not stopping...
[15:29] {Threei}  Tesla Motors Two executives who worked on the Model S have chosen to leave the company prior to its commercial launch - financial press- Reminder: Tesla noted that Model S deliveries were due in mid 2012
[15:29] {Threei}  TSLA is next Solyndra
[15:30] {Threei}  or what was that another one...
[15:30] {Threei}  ese's favorite
[15:30] {Threei}  AONE
[15:30] {dino} seems overdone
[15:31] {dino} sm l .00 break
[15:33] {dino} may not trigger
[15:34] {dino} nope
[15:39] {dino} vsm l .50 wide
[15:45] {Threei}  LOL:
[15:46] {dino} stop flat
[15:46] {Threei}  the best short of the next month: any insurance conpamy insuring an Iranian nuclear scientist
[15:47] {Threei}  wow TSLA
[15:48] {rambler} wheres it going to turn Vad...?
[15:48] {Threei}  no idea
[15:48] {Threei}  tough one
[15:48] {Threei}  this is not a triviak news
[15:48] {Threei}  this is really bad
[15:53] {Threei}  this close to eod, just leave it be
[15:53] {Threei}  ok guys, let's have a good relxing long weekend
[15:53] {Threei}  next week will be interesting, what with Europe falling apart
[15:54] {JK13} Thanks Vad have a nice weekend everyone
[15:54] {Threei}  get a good rest, see you Tuesday!
[15:54] {dino} thx all
[15:55] {rambler} see ya'll tuesday.......




Thursday, January 12, 2012

Jan 12 2012

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership. Free trial is available)

Clean winning day - kept calm and conservative, taking safe and clear plays, restoring balance and confidence. 


Session Time: Thu Jan 12 00:00:00 2012
[09:01] {ese} mornin
[09:01] {Threei}  morning ese
[09:07] {JK13} morning everyone
[09:07] {Threei}  jk
[09:07] {swill} morning
[09:07] {Threei}  will
[09:07] {Threei}  +s
[09:10] {ese} jk swill
[09:14] {rambler} gm all...
[09:16] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:16] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:18] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:24] {RonS} gm gents
[09:25] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:27] {ese} ron beau
[09:27] {ese} rambler
[09:28] {Beau} gm ese.
[09:28] {rambler} morning ese....
[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break
[09:30] {Threei}  half lot
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[09:31] {Threei}  no go
[09:31] {RonS} WYNN Vice-Chairman suing to get financial details due to mis-use of funds
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .40 break
[09:32] {RonS} WYNN getting rocked on suit from No. 1 shareholder. Dispute over a charitable donation to University of Macau Development Foundation
[09:32] {Threei}  stop under .25
[09:32] {ese} wink wink...nudge nudge
[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[09:34] {Threei}  stop .86
[09:34] {Threei}  target .65
[09:35] {Threei}  FCX target .80
[09:35] {Threei}  1:1
[09:36] {Threei}  stop .34
[09:37] {Threei}  SLW stopped
[09:38] {Threei}  FCX stop to .39
[09:39] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:41] {dino} gm
[09:41] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .20 break half lot
[09:41] {Threei}  if stays above .10
[09:42] {Threei}  change to .10 break
[09:42] {Threei}  if holds 99
[09:43] {dino} qcor gap fill
[09:44] {ese} dino
[09:44] {Threei}  99 break now
[09:45] {Threei}  invalidated too
[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .05 break
[09:48] {Threei}  stop under 42
[09:48] {Threei}  very tight
[09:48] {Threei}  target closer to .20
[09:50] {Threei}  CAT escaped
[09:50] {Threei}  couldn't see clear reversal signal
[09:52] {Threei}  half out .1/long se .70 break
[09:52] {Threei}  oops
[09:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  SE  .70 break
[09:52] {Threei}  slow one
[09:52] {Threei}  half out .15 fcx
[09:53] {Threei}  out in full .23
[09:53] {Threei}  SE stop .64
[09:53] {RonS} caught fcx +.15 ty
[09:53] {Threei}  :)
[09:54] {Threei}  target .85, two partials
[09:54] {dino} out fcx .31, +.25 ty vad
[09:54] {Threei}  welcome
[09:55] {rambler} ditto...
[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  SAP  .50 break
[09:57] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:59] {Threei}  half out SE, stop to .69
[10:00] {cipher} took +.69 on QCOR big shares thanks dino!
[10:01] {thomcbell} EXCELLENT
[10:01] {Threei}  nice
[10:01] {thomcbell} i caught it well too Dino
[10:01] {Threei}  wtg
[10:01] {cipher} was a nail biter though
[10:01] {dino} gj
[10:02] {dino} definition of pulp
[10:03] {dino} corn?
[10:03] {thomcbell} sap one to watch for double bottom to developo on the 1 minute
[10:03] {thomcbell} ala - 111
[10:03] {thomcbell} way too early
[10:04] {Threei}  (US) Dec Philadephia Fed index revised down to 6.8 from 10.3
[10:04] {Threei}  wow... some revision
[10:04] {Threei}  SWC
[10:04] {Threei}  takeover rumors
[10:05] {ese} this is patience's day....gold stocks on the move
[10:06] {ese} ng auy
[10:06] {Threei}  SE target hit
[10:06] {Threei}  slow and very safe
[10:06] {Threei}  no single downtick
[10:06] {ese} hl
[10:08] {dino} fcx s .99
[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .95 break
[10:10] {Threei}  if stays above .85 scalpers, .80 day traders
[10:11] {dino} fcx stop -.06
[10:12] {dino} corn sm l .90
[10:13] {dino} fcx rinsed
[10:13] {Threei}  1:1 scalpers
[10:14] {dino} qcor sm l .25
[10:14] {dino} fcx s .85
[10:15] {Threei}  stop .89
[10:15] {cipher} tna l .15
[10:15] {Threei}  Florida GOP Primary: Romney 41%, Gingrich 19%, Santorum 15%
[10:17] {Threei}  1:1 day traders
[10:17] {Threei}  half out, stop to .94
[10:18] {cipher} -.17 tna
[10:18] {Threei}  too early for reversal, cipher... downtrend is in full force still
[10:18] {cipher} ok
[10:20] {dino} out qcor +.30
[10:20] {dino} fcx stop -.05
[10:21] {dino} f'ing rinses
[10:31] {cipher} .
[10:31] {dino} pvh sm l .72
[10:31] {dino} corn stop
[10:32] {rambler} o.K. Dino, I've got to ask....
[10:33] {rambler} what is corn stop...?
[10:34] {dino} .33 cents
[10:35] {rambler} what is relationship to corn....?
[10:36] {dino} corn fund is all i know
[10:36] {rambler} lol...
[10:36] {dino} vwap .60
[10:37] {RonS} US ag dept forecast larger than expected soybean and corn crops
[10:37] {dino} ahhh
[10:39] {dino} pvh stop -.20
[10:41] {JohnH} TZA pulling out of the station
[10:41] {Threei}  yeah, I still want .25 for the second half
[10:42] {dino} psmt sm l .35 stop lod
[10:42] {dino} fcx s .88
[10:44] {JohnH} tough call, spy looks exhausted?
[10:45] {dino} pvh rinsed, ugh 3 today
[10:46] {cipher} tna l .91
[10:46] {cipher} ibm l .50
[10:47] {Threei}  on what side Johnh?
[10:47] {JohnH} trying to sell last partial of TZA
[10:47] {JohnH} and using spy as a guage
[10:47] {Threei}  TZA is inverse, remember
[10:48] {Threei}  goes up when SPY goes down
[10:48] {JohnH} right, spy exhausted down, therefore sell last partial of TZA
[10:49] {cipher} lokks like this may be it for spy
[10:49] {JohnH} spy volume spike at 10:43, no?
[10:49] {dino} cov fcx +.02
[10:49] {Threei}  hard to tell...
[10:49] {cipher} out ibm partial +.40
[10:49] {Threei}  50/50 to me
[10:50] {cipher} gut feeling...
[10:50] {cipher} but then what the hell do i know :-)
[10:50] {dino} corn sm l .50
[10:51] {cipher} out ibm in full +.74
[10:51] {rambler} beauty.....
[10:51] {Threei}  very much so
[10:52] {cipher} out tna +.25
[10:52] {dino} gj
[10:53] {cipher} ok guys, did ok today... cya tomorrow
[10:53] {Threei}  gj
[10:54] {Threei}  take care
[10:54] {rambler} cya cipher....
[10:54] {swill} cya cipher
[10:54] {dino} cya
[11:01] {Threei}  OK, so far so good
[11:01] {Threei}  the day is very different from yesterday, setups work much better
[11:01] {dino} pacw l .65 ave
[11:01] {Threei}  let's try to find safe scalps here and there, to add to the day without jeopardizing it more than necessary
[11:05] {rambler} X ready for short...?
[11:05] {dino} corn stop -.05
[11:05] {Threei}  very much depends on the markey
[11:06] {Threei}  if it continues climbing, X will break 28
[11:08] {RonS} rimm pop
[11:09] {RonS} qotd:  Chatter: $RIMM hiring $TIM Tebow to pray for a buyer.
[11:09] {dino} lol
[11:10] {Threei}  lol
[11:10] {dino} x l .01
[11:11] {rambler} see, just do opposite to me.....
[11:11] {JK13} Vad what do you think fcx long in the pull back?
[11:12] {Threei}  if moves back to 42, yes, looks right
[11:13] {JK13} thx
[11:13] {ese} am outta here......cya tomorrow......
[11:13] {Threei}  take care ese
[11:13] {rambler} cya ese....
[11:13] {dino} psmt to .75
[11:14] {dino} out .78, +.42
[11:15] {dino} stop x -.03
[11:16] {rambler} back in 60.....
[11:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .05 break
[11:21] {Threei}  (CZ) Czeck Prime Minister: Cannot fully support EMU agreement without formalized text; agreement would serve to significantly change the function of the EMU
[11:21] {Threei}  change to 42
[11:23] {thomcbell} What are u seeing there Vad?
[11:23] {Threei}  just a pullback entry
[11:27] {Threei}  invalidated
[11:28] {dino} csh sm l .04
[11:29] {JohnH} dino: what size can you trade psmt? looks thin.
[11:30] {dino} 400
[11:32] {JohnH} if you are bagging .40 then that works nice.
[11:32] {dino} alr l .51
[11:41] {dino} when i type sm=400, 1/1 =.30
[11:41] {JohnH} got it, thanks
[11:42] {dino} just remember, you pull your own trigger
[11:42] {JohnH} of course, I am just watching and learning
[11:44] {JohnH} fcx didn't give a retest to get entry
[11:45] {dino} qcor vwap .86
[11:49] {Threei}  LVS, impressive reversal
[11:52] {RonS} nxtm dino
[11:53] {dino} alr stop -.02
[11:53] {dino} like to see more of a whoosh
[12:21] {dino}  nxtm l .76
[12:30] {dino} to .99
[12:31] {dino} out nxtm .02, +.26 ty ron
[12:32] {RonS} yw...gj
[12:39] {dino}  wow way too soon
[12:40] {dino} bvsn drop
[12:49] {dino} cog sm l .61
[12:56] {dino} out cog .91, +.30
[12:56] {dino} qcor vwap .75
[12:59] {RonS} wow...natty gas at 2.68  no wonder these stocks are so weak...
[12:59] {Threei}  unbelievable
[13:00] {dino} yeah, and obama doesn't want natty gas as oil replacement, sheesh
[13:00] {dino} enough for 120 years
[13:00] {Threei}  for years I hear traders whining about nat gas being a robbery
[13:00] {Threei}  and still it continues in 2012
[13:01] {dino} well they are finding it everywhere. we have more nat gas than saudis do oil
[13:01] {dino} that vwap keeps rejecting qcor
[13:01] {dino} if it gets thru, most likely take off
[13:02] {cc_8} wow action
[13:02] {Threei}  yeah, good treasury auction
[13:03] {dino} out half pacw .78, +.13
[13:05] {dino} qcor sm l .76 trig
[13:09] {dino} stop -.31
[13:10] {dino} better to play the range i guess
[13:10] {Threei}  North Korea citizrns facing jail setneces for not grieving enough on dear leader funeral
[13:10] {Threei}  cool...
[13:15] {dino} out remainder pacw .76, +.11
[13:20] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[13:20] {Threei}  just a scalp objective
[13:26] {RonS} qcor in ongoing jpm conference breakout session...
[13:27] {dino} missed it at .00
[13:38] {dino} fcx to .38
[13:39] {Threei}  easy scalp
[13:39] {dino} cov +.12 ty vad
[13:39] {Threei}  :)
[13:40] {JK13} thx Vad
[13:40] {Threei}  as planned... sitting out everything risky or unclear, taking thr easiest plays
[13:40] {Threei}  welcome guys
[13:44] {dino} deck drop, gap 85
[13:44] {dino} qcor banging vwap again
[13:47] {dino} qcor sm l .65 wide
[13:50] {RonS} QCOR breakout: We want to hear what Streetsweeper has to say... to date, no issues, no investigations. We take compliance seriously
[13:51] {RonS} pop goes the weasel...
[13:53] {thomcbell} nice job Vad on FCX
[13:54] {Threei}  ty
[13:54] {thomcbell} lovely really
[13:54] {Threei}  being a bit on a careful side today, want to restore the balance and confidence after yesterday's shellacking
[13:55] {Threei}  worst thing you can do is to be overly aggressive after a losing day, pushing too hard to get it back
[13:56] {dino} been there
[14:00] {Threei}  *(US) NOV MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$85.9B V -$83.7BE (39TH STRAIGHT MONTH OF DEFICITS)- Receipts: $239.9B v $236B y/y - Outlays: $325.9B v 315$B y/y
[14:00] {dino} out qcor .45, +.80
[14:00] {Threei}  beautiful
[14:01] {dino} ty
[14:01] {dino} lucky really
[14:02] {Threei}  uhhu
[14:04] {dino} wcc spike
[14:04] {dino}  bvsn drop
[14:05] {thomcbell} Vad - i havent gotten to the video yet but completed 111 book yesterday - excellent work - helped train my eye further
[14:08] {Threei}  thank you
[14:08] {Threei}  happy to hear it helps
[14:08] {Threei}  I started collecting screenshots for the third video
[14:09] {dino} deck sm l .00
[14:09] {Threei}  many say they loved first two and would be glad to have third one, with even faster pace between screenshots
[14:10] {dino} deck stop is .82
[14:13] {dino} make it .89
[14:13] {dino} ntri drop
[14:17] {dino} stop
[14:20] {dino} deck rinsed thats 5 today
[14:21] {dino} ual spike
[14:29] {RonS} ...hearing crude just lost 99
[14:31] {Threei}  on this:
[14:31] {Threei}  EU said to be leaning toward delaying embargo on Iran oil imports several months to mid-2012 - financial press
[14:31] {Threei}  **NOTE: Prior reports have stated that the EU could take a few months to put an embargo in place or that it could be done incrementally due to concerns about an oil spike hurting the chances of economic recovery in Europe. During the European market session today a press report said that EU consensus is said to be developing for a 3-month delay in the implementation of the ban on Iran's petrochemical products and a 6-month delay on an Iran crude embargo. According to one recent report, EU officials may meet to make a final decision on Jan 23rd.
[14:35] {dino} lol, give them six more months, before acting. didn't this start in 2010
[14:38] {dino} ual s .78
[14:44] {dino} to .68
[14:44] {dino} cov +.10
[14:48] {rambler} FAZ L 31.5
[14:54] {rambler} out
[15:05] {dino} wes drop
[15:09] {Threei}  Obama asks Congress for $1.2 trillion increase in the nation's debt limit
[15:16] {dino} wes l .28
[15:16] {RonS} ya know stocktwits often gives pretty timely info...but then you get inane bs like this:
[15:17] {RonS} Can someone explain why $RIMM is popping like this? Is there some secret deal that we are unaware of? This stock was pretty dead last week
[15:17] {dino} gap around 26 i think
[15:18] {Threei}  the only thing I see, a few hours ago:
[15:18] {Threei}  RIMM Ticks higher on vague chatter the company has hired an advisor to pursue strategic alternatives
[15:28] {dino} out wes .38, +.10
[15:28] {dino} gotta hop, gn all, thx for ideas
[15:28] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break
[15:29] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[15:34] {Threei}  invalidated
[15:42] {JK13} gn all
[15:42] {rambler} MON drop..
[15:42] {Threei}  take care JK
[15:42] {Threei}  TNA
[15:43] {Threei}  vakid again but klet's keep it half lot
[15:43] {Threei}  valid
[15:55] {Threei}  I guess let's scratc it
[15:55] {Threei}  no time
[15:55] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
[15:55] {rambler} thanks Vad....gn all..
[15:55] {Threei}  see you tomorrow

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Jan 11 2012

Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html   

Some days just don't work - it was one of them. Started with a nice win, exchanged a few jabs with market, then run into a cluster of stops. Shrug, Tomorrow is a new day.


Session Time: Wed Jan 11 00:00:00 2012
[09:02] {JK13} good morning everyone
[09:03] {swill} morning
[09:03] {Threei}  good morning jk, swill
[09:07] {stewy} morning everyone
[09:08] {Threei}  stewy :)
[09:12] {rambler} gm
[09:12] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:15] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:17] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:17] {dino} gm
[09:18] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:19] {RonS} howdy folken
[09:19] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:20] {RonS} Ford recalling 450,426 vehicles to fix defects that can cause fire or loss of power - CNBC's @Lebeaucarnews
[09:21] {Threei}  is it my imagination or these recalls become more common?
[09:21] {Threei}  and reasons are more severe
[09:22] {RonS} methinks it is part of a legal strategy
[09:23] {Threei}  to prevent crash dummies from filing a lwasuit for endargement?
[09:23] {RonS} plus in my business experience, a customer that has a good repair experience is actually more brand loyal than those that have never had one
[09:24] {Threei}  it actually makes sense
[09:25] {RonS} well, yes, and i have seen it first hand...
[09:27] {ese} gm
[09:28] {RonS} ese...crox may be your type of play...plus 6 mil sh short
[09:28] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:29] {RonS} At a keynote address at the Consumer Electronics Show yesterday, Qualcomm Chairman and CEO, Paul Jacobs said that it ships more than a million chips every day, and has sold seven billion mobile chipsets to date, making it the number one supplier of silicon for wireless in the world.
[09:30] {ese} tks ron
[09:30] {ese} will take a look
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .25 break
[09:30] {Threei}  half lot
[09:30] {dino} 12392. 2350, 12880 monday gaps
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .35
[09:32] {Threei}  .20 is crucial support for it
[09:33] {Threei}  lost
[09:33] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {Threei}  half out
[09:33] {Threei}  stop .26
[09:33] {Threei}  scalpers are out and happy
[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .90 break
[09:35] {Threei}  1:2
[09:35] {Threei}  out
[09:35] {dino} cov fcx .07, +.17 ty vad
[09:35] {Threei}  LVS, stop is so obvious, I won't insult your intelligenece
[09:35] {Threei}  welcome sir
[09:36] {ese} L crox .43
[09:36] {ese} sm
[09:36] {dino} rds/a sm l .00
[09:37] {ese} out crox .62 +.19
[09:37] {ese} tks ron
[09:37] {Threei}  wtg
[09:37] {Threei}  no go
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .20 break
[09:38] {Threei}  ugh, late
[09:39] {Threei}  let's see if gives us a secind chance
[09:39] {Threei}  ok
[09:39] {Threei}  same setup
[09:39] {Threei}  .20 break
[09:39] {Threei}  if remains under .30
[09:40] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:41] {Threei}  SPY is likely to breaj out here
[09:44] {dino} rds/a stop -.12
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .15 break
[09:44] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .20
[09:45] {Threei}  half out
[09:45] {Threei}  .27
[09:45] {Threei}  scapers take your profit
[09:45] {Threei}  but it's worth more IMO
[09:46] {Threei}  offer 1/4 more .35 or so
[09:47] {Threei}  stop .14
[09:47] {dino} chk sm l .75
[09:47] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:47] {Threei}  oh well
[09:48] {Threei}  (FR) France official denies of being informed of any imminent decision on its sovereign rating
[09:48] {RonS} mrvl sm l .89
[09:48] {dino} protest too much
[09:49] {Threei}  (US) White House spokesperson: In the next few weeks Pres Obama to announce a plan for tax breaks to encourage businesses to keep jobs in the US
[09:49] {Threei}  took only 3 years to think of that?
[09:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  TOL  .10 break
[09:50] {Threei}  if stays above 23
[09:51] {dino} chk stop -.07
[09:52] {Threei}  no worky TOL
[09:52] {Threei}  not delighted... exchanging jabs
[09:52] {ese} ron did you take any crox on that first move up
[09:53] {dino} tol stop -.12
[09:53] {RonS} no...
[09:54] {dino} sumr sm l .35
[09:55] {ese} Summer Infant.....what kinda company is that?
[09:55] {dino} leisure eqipment?
[09:56] {ese} equipment......?
[09:56] {RonS} mos sm l .55
[09:56] {Threei}  LVS rinsed our second half
[09:58] {Threei}  I thought they were event organizers for winter shotgun weddings, ese
[09:58] {ese} solar stocks starting to pop up every now and again on my screens.......anybody looking into them......undervalued ? anything
[09:58] {RonS} stop mos -.10
[09:59] {dino} fcx s .49
[10:00] {ese} well that quess was better than anything i could figure
[10:00] {Threei} Short Setup: MON  .55 break half lot
[10:00] {dino} ese, govt cutbacks on solars
[10:00] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[10:01] {ese} hmmmmm....no subsidies .............got to make it on there own then
[10:02] {dino} cov fcx +.12
[10:02] {ese} ldk, jaso, csiq,yge all up today
[10:02] {Threei}  wtg
[10:02] {dino} ty
[10:02] {ese} good job
[10:02] {Threei}  MON invalidated
[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  159 break
[10:04] {Threei}  smaller shares
[10:04] {Threei}  if stasys under .10
[10:04] {RonS} mpel sm l 10.00
[10:06] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:07] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Lockhart: Continuing decline in housing prices suggests a bottom may not have been reached
[10:07] {Threei}  valuable observation
[10:08] {JohnH} LVS broke .35
[10:09] {Threei}  yeah... took its sweet time
[10:10] {Threei}  no go GLD
[10:11] {Threei}  not finding right rhytm today
[10:12] {Threei} Short Setup: FC  .60 break
[10:12] {Threei}  FCX
[10:13] {Threei}  most likely just a scalp
[10:16] {Threei}  no go
[10:16] {Threei}  what the deuce
[10:16] {RonS} out mpel .175 ave  +.175
[10:17] {dino} efii
[10:18] {dino} gj ron
[10:19] {RonS} out mrvl .09 +.20
[10:19] {dino} gj
06[10:20] * Threei switches to Ron's trades for the days
[10:20] {Threei}  -s
[10:21] {dino} pacw
[10:21] {dino} upgraded and down
[10:21] {dino} .45 trig l
[10:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  49 break
[10:26] {Threei}  stop under .90
[10:26] {Threei}  target ,25
[10:27] {Threei}  if this one doesn't wrok, I'll eat my old keyboard
[10:28] {pragmatic} TNA stop .93 ?
[10:29] {Threei}  10:26] {Threei} stop under .90
[10:29] {pragmatic} hmm, still sleeping
[10:30] {dino} sssssssslllllllllllllllaaaaaaaaaaap
06[10:30] * Threei pours cold water on pragmatic's head
[10:30] {pragmatic} nice, much better
[10:30] {Threei}  (IR) Russia Foreign Min said to be against imposing oil sanctions against Iran even in the case the country continues its uranium enrichment program
[10:31] {Threei}  but of course
[10:31] {Threei}  *(US) DOE CRUDE: +4.96M V +1ME; GASOLINE: +3.61M V +2ME; DISTILLATE: +3.98M V +2ME; UTILIZATION: 85.6% V 85.2%E
[10:33] {dino} who unplugged mkt
[10:33] {Threei}  and my brain with it
[10:34] {Threei}  it's obviously having day off
[10:35] {JohnH} TNA printed .88, I took the stop, now regretting...
[10:35] {Threei}  I was distracted by copying news, just wanted to ask
[10:35] {pragmatic} i took .88 too
[10:35] {Threei}  that was reak break of .90 or out of bounds print?
[10:35] {dino} i hear ya, 2 of 5 so far w/3 pending
[10:35] {JohnH} I was watching the bid, looked real to me
[10:36] {stewy} stopped out too
[10:36] {Threei}  well... one of those days
[10:36] {Threei}  when I have troubles trading 25 cents for a phone call
[10:36] {JohnH} they still have payphones?
[10:36] {Threei}  our generation is the last one to even understand this saying
[10:36] {Threei}  lol
[10:37] {Threei}  TNA is going to proceed to the target now
[10:38] {Threei}  there you go
[10:38] {dino} chk l .61
[10:43] {Threei}  watching TZA for double bottom
[10:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  24 break
[10:44] {Threei}  stop under .90
[10:46] {Threei}  need SPY to lose 129
[10:47] {JohnH} volume and BB on SPY would say you are correct
[10:48] {Threei}  and the type of the day I am having say "yes but only after a rinse" :)
[10:48] {dino} qcor drop
[10:49] {dino} news?
[10:49] {Threei}  heh
[10:49] {Threei}  cautious comments from financial blog
[10:50] {Threei}  if you can call it news...
[10:50] {RonS} QCOR StreetSweeper article.... Watch out below
[10:50] {RonS} no ides what it said...
[10:50] {Threei}  no details yet
[10:51] {RonS} MAKO pop at the same time as well, but dont know if its related to $QCOR drop
[10:51] {dino} qcor gap fill
[10:51] {Threei}  after TZA breaks .05, can trail stop to .94
[10:52] {dino} vsm l .53 wide
[10:52] {Threei}  lower BB support moved there
[10:52] {Threei}  and .95 served as a support for a while
[10:53] {RonS} jeez went looking for vsm...
[10:53] {Threei}  SPY forms a top.... looks like our TZA was a good idea
[10:53] {Threei}  1:1
[10:53] {Threei}  half out
[10:53] {RonS} Hearing Streetsweeper is short 80K shares $QCOR
[10:54] {Threei}  scalpers be happy
[10:54] {dino} thx ron
[10:54] {Threei}  I'll try to push for more
[10:54] {Threei}  stop .98
[10:56] {dino} chk stop -.13
[10:57] {Threei}  making up my mind on a target: just under .20
[10:59] {Threei}  won't make a day positive but will relieve the pressure noticeably
[11:00] {dino} sumr to flat
[11:07] {Threei}  ok TZA
[11:07] {Threei}  let's do it
[11:08] {Threei}  (GR) Greece could require an additonal �15B in additional aid even if haircut takes place at 50% - financial press-
[11:08] {Threei}  Reminder: Yesterday reports indicated that the debt deal on Greece bonds may be announced as early as next week; Deal to contain 50% haircut targeted previously; and that Greece was expected to require more money than agreed to in October
[11:10] {rambler} http://mibpaste.com/SNDgFS
[11:10] {rambler} check this one out....
[11:11] {Threei}  changing my mind... only 1/4 for sale at .18
[11:11] {Threei}  want more oln the last piece
[11:11] {Threei}  low volume bounce SPY
[11:12] {Threei}  should reverse and drop more
[11:12] {Threei}  trailing stop to 24.02
[11:13] {rambler} my attempt at high tech paste didn,t take......worth a google though.....
[11:14] {JohnH} we got the J, we got the B, now give some more E
[11:14] {cipher} s ibm .72
[11:15] {Threei}  now you've done it John... cute che instead of charts on my minderleaders
[11:15] {Threei}  cheerleaders
[11:15] {JohnH} what does cute che mean
[11:16] {Threei}  word chherleaders got broken by two for some reason
[11:17] {JohnH} yeah, but whats a "minderleader"?
[11:17] {Threei}  sigh... I should just shut up for the day, lol
[11:18] {JohnH} "cute cheerleaders on my mind"
[11:18] {Threei}  there
[11:18] {JohnH} I didn't know they had cheerleaders in USSR
[11:19] {Threei}  no, but they were extra-cute
[11:19] {RonS} qcor going for gap fill...noone knows what is going on...
[11:19] {Threei}  that's it SPY... reverse back down
[11:20] {dino} watching it ron
[11:20] {Threei}  you already lured in bottom-fishers, time to close the trap
[11:20] {JohnH} you could start a new TZA trader here on a .10 break?
[11:21] {Threei}  careful with QCOR guys, halt candidate
[11:21] {RonS} good point
[11:21] {Threei}  hmmm... I think so john...
[11:21] {Threei}  risk a bit higher but yes, it's a play
[11:22] {Threei}  esoecially if holding .05
[11:24] {JohnH} death by a 1000 cuts
[11:25] {Threei}  ?
[11:25] {JohnH} tza is bleeding me, but I hang in, nonetheless
[11:25] {Threei}  how? it's in the money no matter how you slice it
[11:26] {JohnH} true
[11:27] {dino} qcor vsm l .50
[11:28] {cipher} looks like qcor buyers didn't wait for the gaps qcor .59
[11:28] {cipher} s qcor .59
[11:29] {stewy} did you save keybord for another day?
[11:30] {cipher} cov .22 +.37
[11:30] {dino} gj
[11:30] {cipher} missed the fil lower
[11:30] {dino} max pulp
[11:34] {RonS} tarentino's new movie?
[11:39] {Threei}  lol
[11:39] {Threei}  yes stewy
[11:39] {stewy} ;)
[11:44] {stewy} any read on urbn chart?
[11:44] {RonS} busted imo and the ceo just quit or got the boot...
[11:45] {RonS} charman taking over and talking turnaround which takes 3-4 qtrs min...
[11:45] {Threei}  tough one
[11:45] {Threei}  I'd leave it alone
[11:47] {stewy} thx ron
[11:49] {Threei}  what's with happiness?
[11:49] {Threei}  (DE) Germany Savings Bank Chief notes that savings banks in Germany will not accept haircuts of more than 50% on Greece debt
[11:49] {Threei}  - Need to see a final agreement soon on Greek haircuts, the process is taking too long.
[11:50] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar Hits fresh session lows below Sept 2010 levels
[11:50] {cipher} here goes urbn stewy
[11:51] {stewy} a nice dime scalp
[11:52] {stewy} not taken, must sit on hands
[11:54] {RonS} fcx long setting up?
[11:55] {ese} ya well....it's been a good watch....gotta go cya tomorrow
[11:55] {Threei}  take care ese
[11:55] {ese} cya vad
[11:55] {stewy} bye ese
[11:55] {rambler} cya ese...
[11:56] {Threei}  I am not delighted, ron...
[11:56] {RonS} cya ese, have fun w/ you patek phillipe...
[11:56] {Threei}  then again, I am not easy to delight today
[11:56] {ese} stew ram.....ron......
[11:59] {rambler} LVS back up at high....
[12:06] {RonS} EU source says Greek bond swap deal talks to fall short of target
[12:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .90 break
[12:14] {Threei}  if stasy above .85
[12:22] {RonS} QCOR defended by Jefferies
[12:22] {dino} giddy-up
[12:29] {Threei}  I have this feeking that today is going to give some fireworks yet
[12:29] {Threei}  feeling too
[12:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .10 break
[12:36] {Threei}  if stays above 32
[12:43] {Threei}  this is potentially day=fixing trade folks
[12:43] {Threei}  target .40 - .50
[12:46] {Threei}  US) US Govt considering adding addition resources as part of its contribution to the IMF - Germany press- Reminder: In mid December a US Treasury exec comments that the US does not want the IMF to seek additional funding; IMF cannot be a substitute for a credible European firewall
[12:56] {RonS} freakin chinese water torture...
[12:58] {Threei}  are you in a hurry? :)
[13:00] {Threei}  sigh
[13:02] {Threei}  any chance to move from Tue directly to Thu, skipping Wed altogether?
[13:02] {RonS} qotd:  ESPN Poll: Tim Tebow voted "favorite active pro athlete" in America....... Bill Mahar just kicked his dog in rage, Tom Brady frosts hair
[13:04] {cc_8} anyone seeing prints on 24.23 for tza?
[13:05] {RonS} no
[13:05] {RonS} not since morning
[13:10] {stewy} .
[13:11] {stewy} done for the week. see you all next time
[13:11] {Threei}  take care stewy
[13:11] {dino} cya
[13:11] {stewy} thanks everyone and thanks vad
[13:13] {dino} wlt spike
[13:14] {dino} sm s .99
[13:15] {RonS} christopher walken?
[13:20] {RonS} hearing wlt pulled out of gs conf...sign of M&A speculation again w/ this
[13:21] {cipher} l w;t .39
[13:21] {dino} cov wlt .49, +.50
[13:22] {cipher} out .50
[13:22] {RonS} gj
[13:22] {Threei}  nice
[13:22] {cipher} wtg dino
[13:22] {dino} ty, u2
[13:25] {RonS} pds l .56 stop .49
[13:29] {RonS} out pds flat...thing is too thick antithesis of pulp
[13:30] {cipher} yah pulp rules :-)
[13:32] {RonS} cipher must be cute cheerleader...
[13:32] {RonS} :D
[13:33] {cipher} lol
[13:33] {dino} josb spike
[13:34] {RonS} hearing something about cnbc w/ josb...
[13:35] {dino} sm s .98
[13:36] {dino} cog lod
[13:37] {RonS} energy death today...everyon on coal and steel
[13:38] {Threei}  CFTC votes 3-2 in approval of proposal for the Volcker rule proprietary trading ban
[13:38] {Threei}  - Note: proposed rule regards prohibitions and Restrictions on Proprietary Trading and Certain Interests in, and Relationships with, Hedge Funds and Private Equity Funds
[13:42] {cipher} +.15 cog thx dino
[13:43] {dino} gj
[13:45] {dino} pacw l .38
[13:46] {cipher} same here
[13:53] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/RMyPY
[13:59] {dino}  out sumr +.05
[13:59] {dino} alr drop
[14:01] {Threei}  presents at JPM conf
[14:03] {dino} sm l .87
[14:06] {RonS} no oj for you! :  http://tinyurl.com/7ofvg43
[14:07] {dino} out alr .47, +.60
[14:08] {RonS} gj
[14:08] {rambler} beauty Dino..
[14:08] {dino} ty
[14:14] {dino} alr drop again
[14:18] {dino} out pacw .50, +.12
[14:22] {Threei}  no news for this reversal
[14:24] {Threei}  if we are finally there, I'd try to catch TZA long on pullback to .80 and FAZ - .90
[14:25] {Threei}  be back in 20
[14:33] {dino} stop josb -.04
[14:34] {dino} ice drop
[14:38] {dino} sm l .25 stop .99
[14:39] {dino} stop, that was fast
[14:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
[14:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .90 break
[14:42] {dino} ice rinsed
[14:47] {JK13} in on both
[14:47] {Threei}  either they fix this day or it's hopeless
[14:50] {Threei}  SPY losing 129 should catapult both
[14:51] {Threei}  TZA target 24.05
[14:52] {Threei}  FAZ 32.25
[15:00] {Threei}  like pulling teeth
[15:06] {Threei}  FAZ gave up
[15:19] {Threei}  after a cluster of winning days we get a ckuster of losing trades in one day... I think it's fair
[15:20] {Threei}  much better that the other way around
[15:20] {cipher} sorry I lost track... still a negative day as far as the calls?
[15:20] {Threei}  yup
[15:20] {cipher} ok
[15:21] {cipher} just trying to determine my how my performance measures up
[15:21] {cipher} breakeven day for me due to earlier technical issues
[15:22] {Threei}  it's easy: if with your trades you are b/e, you beat the living cr*p out of me {G}
[15:22] {cipher} at least today...let's be honest :-)
[15:23] {dino} down a bit here
[15:23] {Threei}  why not... I have never been under the illusion that I'd never have a losing day :)
[15:23] {dino} pacw to .80
[15:23] {cipher} ok, now I think I have a chance in this business :)
[15:23] {Threei}  SPY goes for breakout
[15:25] {dino} to .84
[15:25] {dino} out ave .83, +.15
[15:45] {Threei}  - NYSE volume 535M shares, about 13% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.2:1. - NASDAQ volume 1.38B shares, about 2% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.5:1.
[15:46] {Threei}  shrug
[15:46] {dino} shrek
[15:46] {Threei}  let's let this day go
[15:46] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:46] {dino} alr l .42
[15:46] {Threei}  see you tonorrow for a much better performance
[15:47] {rambler} see you in the a.m.
[15:47] {cipher} cya

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Jan 10 2012

Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html   

Another day requiring patience but paying off in fair profits. Boring too - which is a good thing as far as I am concerned.


Session Time: Tue Jan 10 00:00:00 2012
[09:04] {JK13} good morning
[09:04] {Threei}  good morning JK
[09:07] {dino} gm
[09:08] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:09] {rambler} morning....
[09:10] {Threei}  rambler :)
[09:14] {RonS} gm everyone...did you hear?
[09:14] {RonS} ...the gulf oil spill is gone...
[09:14] {Threei}  morning ron... no, 'fraid not
[09:14] {Threei}  all of it?
[09:15] {RonS} yes...57 species of microbes ate it
[09:15] {Threei}  how nice for them
[09:15] {Beau} good morning
[09:15] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:15] {Threei}  so, why did we send that guy, what'shisname, to Siberia?
[09:16] {Threei}  BP's CEO
[09:17] {RonS} bigger q...why is the gulf closed for drilling...
[09:17] {RonS} and in the you can't make this stuff up category
[09:18] {Threei}  oh wait... now I remember
[09:18] {Threei}  bwcause he said "I want my life back"
[09:19] {RonS} the ucsb researchers, my alma mater fwiw, who identified the why's of the spill elimination...
[09:19] {Threei}  and we live in the world where PR, impressions and words are more important that facts and deeds
[09:19] {RonS} concluded that the oil companies should be required to use them to determine spill effects before drilling
[09:20] {Threei}  use who? microbes?
[09:20] {Threei}  or researchers?
[09:22] {RonS} researchers to model drill locations
[09:22] {Threei}  ah
[09:23] {Threei}  well... can you blame them
[09:24] {Threei}  I too determined that a few global funds would do well using me before investing in european debt... did it do much good for me?
[09:25] {RonS} well, all that typing caused you to get a nem keyboard...
[09:25] {RonS} :)
[09:25] {RonS} new
[09:26] {ese} morning
[09:27] {Threei}  well, you are more or less OK while your keys lose all the markeings on them... but when you scrap away keys themselves and practically type by touching naked wires by your fingertips, it's probably time to get a new one...
[09:27] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:28] {Threei}  gap up which starts fading away a little...
[09:28] {ese} whats wrong with your keyboard vad?
[09:29] {Threei}  I suspect I have a sandpaper on my fingertips... :)
[09:29] {Threei}  let's wait out first spike and try to find a short entry, most likely for a scalp or 1:2 max
[09:29] {Threei}  then will see what shapes up
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .65 break half lot
[09:30] {Threei}  stop above .75
[09:32] {Threei}  nope
[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .24 break
[09:36] {Threei}  if stays above .90
[09:36] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:39] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[09:39] {Threei}  scalpers be happy
[09:39] {dino} fcx s .49
[09:41] {Threei}  here comes my 1:2
[09:41] {Threei}  out
[09:41] {dino} cov fcx .32, +.17
[09:41] {Threei}  wtg'
[09:42] {dino} ty
[09:42] {ese} L crus .18
[09:43] {JK13} tks Vad TZA 1:1/5 :)
[09:43] {Threei}  :)
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .30 break
[09:44] {Threei}  change to .25 break
[09:44] {Threei}  stop under .20
[09:44] {Threei}  1:1
[09:44] {Threei}  1:2
[09:44] {Threei}  feel free to scalp
[09:45] {Threei}  easy money
[09:45] {Threei}  a bit too easy
[09:45] {thomcbell} very nice Vad
[09:46] {cipher} cat strong today
[09:46] {Threei}  ty
[09:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .55 break half lot
[09:47] {Threei}  if stays above .45
[09:47] {dino} gsk l .12
[09:47] {Threei}  vhange to .50 break
[09:48] {Threei}  change
[09:48] {ese} 1/2 out. 44 +.16....stop to break even balance
[09:48] {Threei}  stop .43
[09:49] {Threei}  target .70, two partials
[09:49] {dino} odd mkt going up 07 red
[09:50] {ese} out balance crus .65 +.47
[09:50] {dino} gj
[09:50] {Threei}  wtg ese
[09:50] {Threei}  very nice one
[09:50] {dino} 07 green
[09:50] {ese} good enough.....tks
[09:51] {Threei}  X is a nailbiter
[09:51] {dino} ese, small size?
[09:51] {ese} needed that cause i'm outta here early today......another show to do this morning with my choir
[09:51] {ese} 800 shs dino....went 4 and 4
[09:52] {dino} thx, gj
[09:53] {ese} taken something like that on a gap up is a bit of a gamble as you know......couldn't justify pulling the trigger on 1K
[09:53] {ese} 800 i could live with if it went against me
[09:54] {dino} was watching it, sudden drop so figured smaller
[09:54] {ese} yup
[09:54] {Threei}  X stop
[09:55] {ese} for a bit there it looked like the spyders were gonna kill me
[09:55] {dino} y
[09:55] {ese} in hind sight I probably should have waited for that higher low....would have been a safer bet
[09:56] {dino} what do you make of sig?
[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .10 break
[09:58] {ese} any news on it?   thats right up your alley...your the pro there
[09:58] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[09:58] {Threei}  aggressive entry for 43 break
[09:59] {dino} sales news, guidance
[09:59] {dino} sm l .50
[09:59] {Threei}  same store sales +7.8% SIG
[09:59] {Threei}  LVS invakidated
[10:00] {ese} i'm afraid i'd have to go with your gut on that one.....i usually like the T&S to be going nuts with not a ton of spread
[10:00] {Threei}  (US) Jan IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 47.5 v 45.3e-
[10:01] {dino} thx
[10:02] {ese} as per vads scalping video......
[10:02] {Threei}  SPY starts looking like breakout
[10:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .40 break
[10:03] {dino} hitk blood
[10:04] {Threei}  not a scalp
[10:04] {Threei}  1:1
[10:04] {Threei}  half out
[10:04] {ese} i've always admired your nerve on plays like SIG dino......takes guts to be able to sus those out and then have the nerve and guts to enter when they've tanked like that to enter
[10:04] {cipher} l crus .30
[10:04] {Threei}  stop .35
[10:06] {RonS} hma sm l .04
[10:06] {Threei}  come on TNA
[10:06] {Threei}  you can do 1:3
[10:07] {dino} just my thing ese
[10:07] {dino} seems to be my edge
[10:07] {ese} yup......cool watchin you operate
[10:07] {cipher} -.08 crus
[10:07] {ese} i think it is....definitely your edge
[10:08] {ese} gotta go though.....9am show
[10:08] {dino} out gsk .19, +.07 thing won't move
[10:08] {ese} catch ya tomorrow
[10:08] {Threei}  have fun ese
[10:08] {ese} tks
[10:08] {rambler} c ya ese...
[10:08] {dino} cya
[10:10] {Threei}  ok TNA... scalpers win
[10:11] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .65 break
[10:11] {Threei}  stop under .60
[10:11] {Threei}  unusually tight for this stock
[10:12] {Threei}  but that's what chart indicates
[10:13] {cipher} l crus .10
[10:14] {Threei}  X, want to take first partial around 1:2
[10:14] {dino} out sig .60, +.10 entry was off
[10:14] {dino} brb
[10:15] {Threei}  no go
[10:16] {rambler} dang it all.....
[10:17] {Threei}  BBD
[10:19] {Threei}  newsfeed is down
[10:19] {Threei}  not sure what's with this one
[10:19] {Threei}  18 break is interesting but gotta check the news
[10:20] {Threei}  trades in a narrow range whole morning
[10:22] {Threei}  disregard BBD
[10:23] {cipher} crus -.11 stop
[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .40 break
[10:24] {Threei}  two-sided setup probably
[10:24] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .30 break
[10:26] {RonS} out hma .36 +.32
[10:26] {Threei}  wtg
[10:26] {dino} spy on vwap
[10:26] {dino} gj ron
[10:30] {dino} fcx s .82
[10:32] {Threei}  looks like LVS is going to be long
[10:33] {dino} cov fcx +.02
[10:34] {dino} .75 wall
[10:35] {Threei}  wow
[10:35] {cipher} l crus .85 last try
[10:37] {Threei}  feel free to exit LVS here who got it
[10:37] {JohnH} try and catch some on a retest (LVS)
[10:37] {Threei}  not sure
[10:37] {Threei}  trades a bit weird
[10:37] {RonS} qotd:  Congrats 'Facebook of ladies behinds ' $LULU at all-tie highs
[10:39] {Threei}  lol
[10:41] {dino} gel drop
[10:41] {dino} thin
[10:42] {dino} gel sm l .45
[10:43] {cipher} l gel .39
[10:44] {Threei}  you guys are totally fearless
[10:45] {dino} tif lod
[10:46] {cipher} out 1/2 crus .00 +.15
[10:46] {dino} gj
[10:46] {Threei}  finally... revenge time for cipher and CRUS :)
[10:46] {cipher} thx
[10:47] {Threei}  GEL is working nicely
[10:47] {RonS} wfm smacked
[10:48] {dino} s3 71.40 wfm
[10:48] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[10:48] {Threei}  oops
[10:48] {Threei}  long
[10:48] {cipher} out gel .59 +.20
[10:48] {Threei}  lol
[10:49] {dino} gj
[10:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break
[10:49] {Threei}  standard stop
[10:49] {RonS} lol...some dude saying wfm better weight loss than wtw...that he lost a lot after shopping wfm
[10:49] {Threei}  nice one cipher
[10:49] {cipher} thx dino
[10:50] {RonS} ya, he couldn't afford to eat...
[10:50] {Threei}  lol
[10:50] {dino} damn missed wfm
[10:53] {dino} fcx s .74
[10:53] {Threei}  LVS demonstrates salmonish behavior
[10:53] {Threei}  but still, let's trail stop to under .45
[10:53] {Threei}  market is too weak
[10:54] {Threei}  and even salmon may get tired if the curent is too strong for too long
[10:55] {Threei}  1:1
[10:57] {Threei}  out in full
[10:57] {Threei}  good boy LVS
[10:58] {Threei}  wow, too soon
[10:59] {Threei}  that .40 retest on pullback was a good idea in retrospect, JohnH
[10:59] {RonS} classic:  $LULU does a world class job of uplifting the bottom lines
[10:59] {Threei}  rofl
[10:59] {rambler} that was a p[otential day fixer...
[10:59] {Threei}  well, .50 break did just that
[10:59] {dino} runs a tight ship
[11:00] {RonS} lol
[11:01] {Threei}  dino WFM went back for sevond chance
[11:02] {dino} out gel .73, +.28
[11:03] {RonS} Tim Tebow Declines to Endorse Any Presidential Candidates Despite Courtship
[11:03] {cipher} wtg dino
[11:03] {JohnH} of course I didn't have the guts to pull the triggger on it
[11:03] {rambler} X double bottom...?
[11:03] {JohnH} but I'll get there...
[11:03] {RonS} ...didn't know courtship was running...
[11:03] {Threei}  X no
[11:04] {Threei}  looks all wrong
[11:04] {dino} ty cipher
[11:04] {dino} spy 129.08 r3
[11:05] {Threei}  WFM 72 break worked
[11:06] {Threei}  this is ridiculous beyond belief... Tebow endorsement? he is an expet in what exactly?
[11:06] {dino} sxci spike
[11:06] {Threei}  expert
[11:08] {cipher} +.14 sxci thx dino
[11:08] {dino} gj
[11:09] {dino} football i guess 3i
[11:09] {cipher} got out just before it dropped
[11:09] {Threei}  thought so... that's what makes his endorsement so weighty for presidential candidates...
[11:09] {RonS} people saying market drop due to F reporting 4th q loss...actually 4th q asia loss due to thai flood
[11:10] {RonS} reuters...
[11:11] {dino} out fcx -.04
[11:11] {Threei}  this is not even funny ron: F reported that at 9:38
[11:11] {Threei}  market went up sinve then, and started dropping much later
[11:11] {Threei}  are they complete idiots?
[11:13] {cipher} who is idiot?
[11:13] {Threei}  oh, too many to list lol
[11:14] {cipher} maybe they're manipulating it (the big boys)?
[11:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break
[11:19] {dino} feels weak to me
[11:22] {thomcbell} not weak - tentative
[11:22] {thomcbell} i feel
[11:23] {dino} lol
[11:23] {thomcbell} it needs permission
[11:23] {Threei}  {FCX} ah come on, all I need is to pick up one or two endordements
[11:23] {Threei}  from football players desirably
[11:24] {Threei}  1:1
[11:25] {cipher} +.10 FCX big size thx vad
[11:25] {Threei}  welcome sir
[11:25] {dino} out fcx +.10 ty, good read
[11:25] {Threei}  :)
[11:26] {thomcbell} out too thanks vad
[11:26] {Threei}  welcome
[11:26] {rambler} ditto..
[11:27] {Beau} thanks vad
[11:27] {Threei}  not a stellar day by any stretch of imagination, but bearably profitable
[11:30] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Pianalto: May take 4-5 years in order to reach 6% unemployment rate; US is nearing price stability- Forecasts 2012 GDP at 2.5%; 3% in 2013
[11:30] {thomcbell} Cat - tough one with fattest round number but trades nicely
[11:30] {Threei}  may we hold him to all these forecasts?
[11:31] {dino} fcx s .80
[11:32] {thomcbell} CAT 99.91 break half lot
[11:32] {thomcbell} if holds 99.74
[11:37] {thomcbell} CAT invalidated
[11:38] {dino} cov fcx .72, +.08\
[11:40] {Threei}  1:1
[11:40] {Threei}  nice
[11:43] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Williams: Too big to fail issue remains unresolved by Dodd Frank legislation and is a large threat to the financial system- Voices support for higher capital requirements for larger institutions
[11:43] {Threei}  hmmm
[11:43] {Threei}  is this kind of talk allowed in Fed?
[11:52] {RonS} hgt sm l .15
[11:55] {Threei}  - EUR/USD continues to probe the 1.28 handle during the New York session. Dealers are getting nervous ahead of Thursday's ECB decision and wondering which way the event might push the euro. The ECB is expected to press governments to step up their efforts to tackle the euro zone crisis as it leaves its key rates on hold for now
[11:56] {dino} gsk l .00
[12:01] {rambler} back in a bit......
[12:10] {dino}  gsk stuck, stop to .99
[12:10] {dino} lqdt spike
[12:11] {RonS} hgt out flat...gt drop
[12:16] {dino} ipgp wow
[12:18] {dino} needham conference
[12:18] {dino} gsk to .04
[12:18] {dino} ilmn spike
[12:18] {Threei}  halt
[12:21] {dino} out gsk +.04
[12:22] {dino} igpg continues
[12:22] {dino} ipgp
[12:25] {cc_8} any news on ILMN
[12:25] {dino} no
[12:25] {Threei}  there is some
[12:26] {Threei}  Notes it can now sequence genomes in one day using the new machine- Currently presenting at the JP Morgan healthcare conf.
[12:26] {Threei}  wow
[12:26] {Threei}  what's with market
[12:26] {Threei}  no news
[12:26] {cc_8} vollititlityyy
[12:26] {RonS} dang tza...
[12:26] {Threei}  yeah
[12:27] {RonS} was trying tza for .90...missed
[12:29] {Threei}  feels like new breajdown is coming
[12:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .20 break
[12:30] {dino} ipgp vsm s .20 break wide
[12:32] {Threei}  stop under .10, target .45
[12:39] {Threei}  no go
[12:52] {rambler} all quiet on the western front...?
[12:52] {Threei}  for now
[13:09] {dino} idix spike
[13:19] {cipher} idix l .26
[13:35] {cipher} out .41 +.15
[13:39] {dino}  gj
[13:40] {RonS} ten selling
[13:41] {dino} ten drop
[13:41] {dino} opps
[13:44] {dino} sm l .46
[13:44] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .50 break if stays under .60
[13:48] {sstrader} CAT still valid?
[13:48] {Threei}  yes
[13:48] {sstrader} ty
[13:49] {Threei}  let's just keep shares a bit smaller than full lot
[13:49] {Threei}  gotta respect kunch time
[13:49] {Threei}  lunch
[13:49] {dino} ocr drop
[13:51] {cipher} +.14 ocr thx dino
[13:52] {dino} idix spike
[13:52] {dino} gj
[13:52] {cipher} darn idix took off without me
[13:53] {dino} out ten .75, +.29
[13:54] {Threei}  nice
[13:54] {RonS} gj
[13:54] {dino} ty
[13:57] {thomcbell} lvs vad?
[13:57] {thomcbell} 0.56 break?
[13:58] {Threei}  I doubt it
[13:58] {Threei}  CAT is firmly invalidated
[14:01] {dino} tea spike
[14:01] {RonS} made it taste like coffee?
[14:02] {Threei}  irish one too
[14:02] {dino} lol
[14:07] {dino} cie spike
[14:08] {dino} hmm none avail
[14:10] {dino} ipgp vsm s .20
[14:15] {cipher} ipgp l.85
[14:16] {dino} you dog
[14:16] {RonS} lol
[14:16] {dino} :D
[14:17] {dino} nice
[14:24] {dino} idix wow
[14:25] {cipher} out .29 +.44
[14:25] {dino} wtg
[14:25] {cipher} thx for the tip.. i'll forgive u for calling me a dog :-)
[14:26] {dino} thats a compliment
[14:26] {rambler} lol..
[14:27] {cipher} lol i know :-)
[14:27] {cipher} coming from you I wouldn't expect anything less :-)
[14:27] {dino} achn
[14:27] {dino} ;)
[14:36] {dino} ipgp stop
[14:44] {thomcbell} cie - one for us to watch - good trader
[14:45] {Threei}  spread is a little bit wider than I'd like, but overall, not bad
[14:47] {Threei}  (GR) Hedge funds increasingly reluctant to agree to a haircut on their Greek bond holdings with IMF - financial press- Said to have build up sufficiently large positions to sway the course of agreement on voluntary debt restructuring. - IIF managing director Dallara expcted to visit Athens this week for troika talks. **REMINDER: Greece is facing a Mar 20th deadline to roll over �14.5B of its debt.
[14:48] {Threei}  (US) White House spokesman Carney: Obama administration to ask for increase to debt ceiling in a 'matter of days' - The Hill- Carney: "I'm confident it will be executed in a matter of days, not weeks."
[14:48] {Threei}  - The White House will be asking Congress to raise the U.S. borrowing limit by $1.2 trillion. The move would mark the third and final increase from the debt-ceiling deal reached last year by Congress.
[14:48] {Threei}  god... trillions are flying like it's nothing
[15:04] {dino} cstr drop
[15:05] {dino} sm l .51
[15:06] {dino} out .81, +.30
[15:08] {RonS} wtg
[15:08] {dino} ty
[15:08] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[15:15] {Threei}  invalidated
[15:24] {Threei}  FCX is valid again
[15:33] {Threei}  1:1 close enough
[15:33] {Threei}  out
[15:33] {rambler} nice one Vad...thks
[15:35] {Threei}  :)
[15:43] {rambler} it's not stopping....
[15:43] {Threei}  1:2... without me
[15:43] {Threei}  realy wanted cemented win, without risk of giving it back
[15:48] {dino} gj
[15:51] {dino} wow ipgp
[15:59] {Threei}  Ok guys, thank you all
[15:59] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:59] {rambler} thanks Vad, c u all in  the a.m.
[16:00] {JK13} good night  Vad
[16:00] {dino} gn all

Monday, January 9, 2012

Jan 092012

Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Very quiet but profitable day. One of those when patience is strongly recommended. 1:3 on FAZ as a highlight of the day.



Session Time: Mon Jan 09 00:00:00 2012
[09:05] {dino} gm
[09:06] {Threei}  morning dino
[09:08] {JK13} good morning all
[09:08] {Threei}  jk :)
[09:08] {swill} morning
[09:08] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:11] {rambler} goodmorning all...
[09:13] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:14] {Threei}  rambler, beau :)
[09:15] {Threei}  from the morning communique:
[09:15] {Threei}  The two leaders are expected to discuss the future of the Eurozone and markets are up with optimism that the leaders will pave the way to a solution and prepare for next summit of January 30th.
[09:16] {Threei}  if that's the only reason for the gap, I'd say it's likely to fizzle out
[09:16] {Threei}  well, there is always one more, old and reliable: EU didn't collapse over the weekend, let's party
[09:19] {stewy} hi everyone, gd morning
[09:19] {Threei}  stewy :)
[09:22] {Threei}  LOL:
[09:22] {Threei}  Cut the euro some slack - were you great as 12 years old?
[09:26] {Threei}  first idea is, well, you guessed it... FCX short on 39 break
[09:27] {Threei}  if you haven't, then I am probably not as predictable as word on the street has it
[09:27] {Threei}  first fsc trade is always half lot
[09:27] {Threei}  FCX
[09:28] {Threei}  new keyboard, my fins are not fully adjusted yet, so some mistypes are liklely - as strange as it may sound
[09:28] {rambler} SLW has lost its starting position....
[09:28] {Threei}  lol... it did
[09:29] {Threei}  such is great power of eternal rise and fall of the awesome forces
[09:30] {Threei}  FCX, if stays under .10
[09:30] {Threei}  still valid
[09:30] {ese} gm
[09:30] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:31] {Threei}  LVS is another candidate
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .55 break
[09:31] {Threei}  awww
[09:31] {Threei}  late
[09:32] {Threei}  le't see
[09:32] {Threei}  maybe anoither setup
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .60 break
[09:33] {Threei}  if not going over .70
[09:33] {Threei}  die already FCX
[09:34] {Threei}  LVS invalidated for now
[09:34] {Threei}  FCX target 1:2
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .50 break half lot
[09:36] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:36] {Threei}  FCX 1;1
[09:37] {Threei}  stop to .01 for the balance
[09:37] {Threei}  X 1:1
[09:37] {Threei}  same management
[09:37] {Threei}  unless you are scalping
[09:37] {Threei}  in which case you don't give a fkying sneeze
[09:39] {ese} L IDIX .00
[09:40] {ese} STOP .82
[09:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .40 break
[09:41] {Threei}  if stays above .30
[09:41] {ese} Stoped .80 -.20
[09:41] {Threei}  SLW invalidate
[09:42] {Threei}  X looks to be coming to 1:2 finally
[09:42] {Threei}  let' trail it to .46
[09:45] {Threei}  X 1:2
[09:45] {Threei}  out in full
[09:45] {Threei}  so, pesky scalpers won one, sane traders won one
[09:46] {stewy} x scalped but could not short fcx .  hmmm
[09:46] {Threei}  not in inventory?
[09:47] {Threei}  LVS got away from us
[09:47] {Threei}  .60 trigger eventually workd but there was no consolidation narrow enough for a nice tight stop
[09:48] {Threei}  or I got distracted by othr trades...
[09:48] {Threei}  OK, gotta determine if this is market reversal
[09:49] {Threei}  if SPY breaks .80, we switch to long setups
[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .35 break
[09:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .05 break
[09:50] {Threei}  FCX stop under .95
[09:50] {Threei}  SLW .25
[09:51] {Threei}  target 1:2 for both
[09:52] {Threei}  SLW 1:1
[09:52] {Threei}  trail by the book
[09:52] {Threei}  again, unl;ess you are pesky scalper
[09:56] {Threei}  SLW scalpers win, FCX no go
[09:57] {Threei}  market still feels like long plays for now though
[09:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  STJ  .80 break half lot
[09:59] {ese} L idix .50
[10:00] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  DIS  40 break
[10:04] {Threei}  STJ 1:1 close enough, out
[10:04] {Threei}  market is a bit unsteady
[10:07] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .20 break
[10:07] {Threei}  smaller shares'
[10:07] {Threei}  if stays under .30
[10:08] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:08] {Threei}  come on Dis, trigger already
[10:09] {Threei}  as they say in Congress, man up
[10:09] {dino} psmt sm l .51
[10:10] {pragmatic} huge bid dis 40
[10:10] {Threei}  bid?
[10:10] {pragmatic} a
[10:10] {pragmatic} sk
[10:10] {Threei}  yeah, that's what makes it good play
[10:11] {pragmatic} had to enter aggressively. jumped right to .5
[10:11] {Threei}  often happens on break of such strong dam
[10:11] {dino} out psmt .06, +.55
[10:11] {rambler} nice Dino....
[10:12] {cipher} wtg
[10:12] {Threei}  and that's why you never deplpy market orders on breakouts
[10:12] {pragmatic} yup
[10:13] {dino} ty
[10:14] {Threei}  1:1
[10:15] {Threei}  frikin FCX rinsed us
[10:16] {rambler} the nerve....
[10:16] {Threei}  yeah
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLV  .35 brak
[10:17] {Threei}  break too
[10:17] {Threei}  stop under .25, garden variety
[10:18] {dino} out dis +.12 ty vad
[10:18] {Threei}  :)
[10:22] {Threei}  let's keep risk smaller now and trail stop to .29
[10:23] {dino} out .32
[10:23] {Threei}  out
[10:23] {Threei}  no confidence
[10:24] {Threei}  may work, may fail, 50/50
[10:24] {rambler} got up to page 104 on the 111 booklet over the weekend.....good stuff
[10:24] {Threei}  :)
[10:25] {dino} mg drop
[10:25] {Threei}  JPM, two-sided setup
[10:25] {Threei}  .50 - .60
[10:25] {Threei}  with my inclination on the short side
[10:26] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .50 break if stays under .60
[10:27] {dino} mwe drop
[10:28] {ese} L idix .01 avg .26
[10:29] {Threei}  JPM short invalidated
[10:29] {Threei}  long is discretionary
[10:29] {Threei}  if you took it, feel free to exit as see fit
[10:33] {dino} psmt sm l .25
[10:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .90 break
[10:33] {Threei}  if stays above .80
[10:35] {ese} needs to make it run this time or i'm out even ...IDIX
[10:35] {ese} went 3k/3k
[10:35] {cipher} +.20 idix thx ese
[10:36] {Threei}  small shares play, eh ese
[10:36] {ese} out .41 +.16
[10:36] {ese} good enough
[10:37] {Threei}  gj guys
[10:37] {ese} your welcome cipher.....
[10:37] {ese} oh for!!!!!!!!
[10:37] {dino} psmt stop -.26
[10:37] {cipher} now if I only did "ese size" :-)
[10:37] {Threei}  FAZ target 1:3
[10:37] {ese} ya sure .....pop up to .53
[10:38] {ese} ya (&&*^*&$!!!!!(*(*&
[10:38] {Threei}  1:1, first partial out
[10:38] {pragmatic} nice FAZ
[10:38] {cipher} motherbagger idix!
[10:38] {Threei}  lol
[10:38] {Threei}  now tell us how you really feel
[10:38] {dino} sina drop
[10:38] {Threei}  don't sugarcoat
[10:38] {Threei}  1:2 FAZ
[10:39] {Threei}  stop .94 for the last part
[10:39] {ese} that size is rare for me these days vad......
[10:39] {rambler} I'm not getting my fills...
[10:40] {Threei}  on what?
[10:40] {rambler} they like you more better......
[10:40] {ese} this one felt comfortable enough..........it odd how you get that feeling sometimes
[10:40] {rambler} 34.10 on FAZ
[10:40] {Threei}  it just touched it
[10:40] {Threei}  now you should
[10:40] {rambler} got it..
[10:40] {Threei}  right
[10:41] {dino} gj ese
[10:42] {ese} tks
[10:42] {Threei}  not odd ese... that's intuition kicks in... brought up by years of experience
[10:42] {dino} "gut"
[10:42] {ese} ya
[10:43] {Threei}  ok FAZ
[10:43] {Threei}  let's start final frive
[10:43] {Threei}  drive
[10:43] {Threei}  there
[10:43] {Threei}  out .19
[10:43] {Threei}  1:3
[10:43] {stewy} faz thnaks smile smile
[10:43] {Threei}  :)
[10:44] {rambler} excellent  Vad, thks..
[10:44] {Threei}  welcome sir
[10:45] {Threei}  this is the mment when magoo would say "finally you are of some use"
[10:45] {cipher} sina l .58
[10:45] {rambler} was going to ask if you were going to skip 1:3 and hold for more...
[10:46] {Threei}  and I would ask dino to put his elbow in msgoo's ribcage
[10:46] {Threei}  no
[10:46] {Threei}  1:3 was what I was going for
[10:46] {Threei}  could see it as far as that
[10:46] {dino} used to throw shoes at him
[10:46] {Threei}  if it goes more, it's beyond my read
[10:46] {Threei}  hehe... that works
[10:46] {ese} did I see a post last week that said mags may be comin back?.....If so....cool
[10:47] {Threei}  yes ese
[10:48] {cipher} out .70 & .75 +.12 & .17
[10:48] {ese} nice.....I miss that dry wit in your face thing.......be good to have him back
[10:49] {Threei}  nice cipher
[10:49] {cipher} ty
[10:49] {Threei}  wow
[10:49] {Threei}  who tripped over market's cord?
[10:49] {Threei}  and unpluged it
[10:51] {dino} 07 red
[10:51] {swill} stop to tight
[10:52] {swill} on faz
[10:52] {Threei}  play by the book, swill...
[10:53] {Threei}  don't improvise
[10:53] {Threei}  starard procedure is there fior a reason
[10:53] {Threei}  reasin is - exclude the thinking from the process
[10:54] {Threei} Short Setup: HIG  .70 break
[10:54] {Threei}  if stays under .80
[10:55] {dino} sohu sm l .27
[10:56] {cipher} sina bounce
[11:06] {Threei}  (FR) France Banking federation: Financial transactions tax would be counterproductive and inefficient **REMINDER: Comments come after French Pres Sarkozy today reiterated that a financial transaction tax is needed (Tobin tax).
[11:06] {Threei}  stupid is as stupid does...
[11:12] {Threei}  ok, let's trail stop tp .76
[11:12] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  35 break half lot
[11:13] {Threei}  if stays under .10 of course
[11:14] {Threei}  half lot in this case reflect low confidence rather than voltility
[11:18] {Threei}  held by fingertips
[11:21] {dino}  out sohu .80, +.53
[11:21] {Threei}  market pretty much lost shape... jellyfish
[11:21] {Threei}  like poking an amoeba
[11:22] {dino} nasty
[11:23] {stewy} .
[11:23] {stewy} nice one dino
[11:23] {Threei}  le't scratch JPM here
[11:23] {Threei}  out flat
[11:23] {Threei}  ditto HIG
[11:23] {dino} ty
[11:24] {stewy} is that your jellyfish rule?
[11:25] {Threei}  yeah, I don't wrestle with those
[11:25] {Threei}  notice JPM would habe been stopped now
[11:26] {stewy} certainly been that sort of day
[11:26] {Threei}  well, morning was decent
[11:26] {Threei}  especially FAZ play
[11:27] {Threei}  here HIG would get stopped
[11:27] {Threei}  so, good idea to get out when things lose shape
[11:28] {swill} what do you mean by lose shape?
[11:29] {Threei}  no drive, no clear pattern... just random bobbing
[11:29] {swill} i see. ty
[11:30] {Threei}  now, you think playing JPM you live dangerously?
[11:30] {Threei}  An Australian woman has survived a terrifying fall after her bungee cord snapped during a 111-metre leap off Africa's Victoria Falls Bridge, plunging her into the crocodile-infested Zambezi River below
[11:30] {Threei}  Read more: http://www.timescolonist.com/Woman+survives+after+bungee+cord+snaps+over+crocodile+infested+waters/5965936/story.html#ixzz1iymUNxgo
[11:31] {RonS} yikes...diaper change?
[11:31] {Threei}  just by readung that, if you have vivid imagination :)
[11:31] {dino} mg sm l .53
[11:32] {RonS} mg?
[11:32] {stewy} vad those fingertip situations is what bled me last year
[11:32] {dino} y
[11:32] {stewy} i lost nerve before the trade lost shape
[11:33] {Threei}  hpefully Taoist Trader will make the difference
[11:33] {dino} psmt sm l trig .50
[11:33] {Threei}  wu wei principle...
[11:34] {Threei}  do not interfere with natual course of things
[11:35] {Threei}  and don't be arrogant thinking that you know better than market
[11:36] {swill} i'll let the energies flow
[11:40] {swill} and play by the book, with practice
[11:45] {dino} out psmt .86 +.34
[11:45] {dino} out mg .93, +.40
[11:46] {dino} taking 10 minute break
[11:47] {Threei}  very nice trades
[11:47] {Threei}  and well deserved break
[11:50] {RonS} took mg 22.40 to 23.05  +.65  thanks dino
[12:01] {dino} gj ron
[12:02] {dino} psmt drop
[12:05] {RonS} chk
[12:06] {dino} chk drop
[12:07] {Threei}  (IR) Germany comments on reports of additional uranium enrichment in Iran, calls development a further escalation- Confident in the EU's recent decisions on Iran oil embargo
[12:08] {dino} like that will stop them
[12:08] {Threei}  uhhu
[12:09] {rambler} playing hard ball...
[12:09] {Threei}  this train goes to the wreck place fast
[12:09] {dino} i know, why don't we give them food like we do for n korea
[12:09] {dino} lol
[12:09] {Threei}  (EU) Institute of International Finance (IIF): Greece bond swap discussions are ongoing; bondholder haircuts could potentially exceed 50%
[12:09] {Threei}  - Sees nominal haircut remaining at 50%
[12:09] {Threei}  **Note: On Jan 2nd it was reported that Germany might seek to have Greece's private creditors take larger write downs on their Greek debt holdings; The article said Germany was studying a proposal for 75% write downs on Greece's debt with regards to PSI
[12:10] {Threei}  PSI - whatever, we already know we are going to lose 100%
[12:10] {dino} and they don't call that a default
[12:10] {Threei}  heh
[12:11] {swill} i think iceland defaulted and are fine now
[12:11] {dino} wow nflx again
[12:11] {Threei}  PSI: hey guys, if you vut our head off but call it a haircut rather than beheading, think we feel better?
[12:11] {dino} right swill
[12:12] {Threei}  EU: you see, the only difference between haircut and beheading is a location of the cut
[12:12] {JK13} lol
[12:12] {Threei}  and that's a subject of discretion and error
[12:13] {Threei}  with somewhat wide margin
[12:14] {Threei}  there... where else you get trading education, stand-up comedy and lessons in typing with your knees
[12:15] {swill} excellent
[12:16] {Threei}  Election 2012: Obama 46%, Santorum 39%
[12:16] {Threei}  santorum... come on
[12:16] {Threei}  is this how "never gonna happen" spells these days?
[12:38] {cc_8} ha
[12:45] {RonS} brcd...bad print cause halt?
[12:46] {RonS} BRCD said to have reviewed multiple bids
[12:46] {stewy} lunch today: peanut butter and jelly(fish)
[12:50] {Threei}  hmmm
[12:52] {Threei}  fried jellyfish... I need to see it to believe it
[12:52] {swill} i'm having ameba on a stick
[12:52] {Threei}  rofl
[12:53] {rambler} wrap it in bacon....
[12:53] {swill} yes
[12:53] {Threei}  that's cheating - bacon makes anything edible
[12:54] {rambler} so true....
[12:59] {Threei}  I take that back... broccoli is notable exception. Even bacon couldn't save it
[12:59] {Threei}  broccoli must die
[12:59] {rambler} thats what cheese is for.....
[12:59] {rambler} you make sauce and smother broccoli....
[13:01] {Threei}  I am sorry... it makes no sense to me... whny spoil good food (cheese) with broccoli, aka root of all evil
[13:01] {rambler} lol..
[13:02] {cc_8} i like broccoli
[13:03] {Threei}  I will have to review our relationship...
[13:03] {RonS} ...last guy who said that has his subscription price double...
[13:03] {RonS} had
[13:03] {RonS} :)
[13:04] {Threei}  and I was in a good mood that day, normally it's triple
[13:04] {Threei}  or facing firing squad
[13:04] {cc_8} i meant my bro's-e-coli infection is cured
[13:04] {RonS} lol
[13:04] {rambler} cc...you're out of the closet now.....
[13:04] {RonS} good one...
[13:06] {Threei}  and I gave broccoli all the benefits of the doubt: I wrapped it in bacon, smoked it for a hour with hicjkory and added a good shot of Grey Goose. Really, could I possibly have done more for it?
[13:06] {Threei}  but no - it was still disgusting
[13:17] {thomcbell} good evening everyone
[13:19] {Threei}  you are leaving?
[13:19] {Threei}  or just waking up?
[13:19] {Threei}  "evening" part vonfuses me
[13:19] {Threei}  confusesd
[13:19] {Threei}  grrr
[13:19] {Threei}  fins don't hit right keys
[13:20] {thomcbell} no late entry
[13:20] {thomcbell} travelled to visit Denver for the week
[13:20] {JK13} I thought you were speaking german for a moment
[13:20] {Threei}  lol
[13:25] {dino}  psmt sm l .03
[13:31] {dino} stop to .24
[13:32] {dino} out +.18 slip
[13:57] {dino} psmt higher lows
[13:59] {dino} sm l .30 ave
[14:06] {dino} out .71, +.41
[14:06] {rambler} beauty Dino....
[14:07] {dino} thx
[14:14] {Threei}  William Daley resigning as White House chief of staff
[14:14] {Threei}  didn't take long
[14:24] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .25 break
[14:38] {dino}  out fcx +.03
[14:39] {Threei}  not fooling around eh? :)
[14:39] {dino} thought the mkt was dropping
[14:42] {dino} calling it a day. my 13 1/2 year old golden had a stroke thursday. she cannot get up and stopped eating. i have to take her to the vet and put her down
[14:42] {Threei}  ouch
[14:43] {Threei}  sorry to hear dino
[14:43] {rambler} bummer Dino.....
[14:44] {dino} thanks. it's a tough one, she always laid on the floor in my office while i was trading
[14:44] {Beau} dino so sorry.
[14:45] {Beau} we will doing that tomorrow-15 yr old shep.
[14:45] {dino} sorry too beau
[14:51] {stewy} sorry to hear dino
[14:52] {Threei}  this is why I don't have pets... just can't imagine going through this after many years with them
[14:54] {rambler} I've had a cat on my boat for the last 12 years up and down the coast....
[14:54] {rambler} don't know what I'll do when he's gone..
[14:56] {Threei}  cats are my favorites
[14:56] {rambler} ya..he's great company...
[15:00] {Threei}  *(US) NOV CONSUMER CREDIT: $20.4B V $7.0BE
[15:00] {Threei}  huh
[15:01] {Threei}  how on earth do you miss the number by factor 3 in your estimates... and still keep your job
[15:28] {swill} i'm segregated in the chat room today
[15:30] {rambler} LVS boucing along 42.30, now bkoke thru....
[15:30] {rambler} crap...
[15:33] {Threei}  market is too narrow and slow
[15:39] {swill} my deepest condolences to those with sick animals
[15:40] {stewy} vad, in this kind of mkt, does a mover like nflx pop up on yr scanner?
[15:43] {Threei}  sure, many times
[15:45] {stewy} did it not present good setups to your liking?
[15:46] {Threei}  this partivular one is nmore a matter of risk
[15:46] {Threei}  it's beyond my level of comfort
[15:48] {stewy} thx
[15:51] {Threei}  very quiet day
[15:51] {rambler} zzzzzzz.......
[15:56] {Threei}  Ok guys, thank you all
[15:56] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:56] {rambler} thanks Vad, c u tomorrow.....




Friday, January 6, 2012

Market Week Wrap-up

Market Week Wrap-up

- The new year in markets began where the old year left off, with investors focused squarely on Europe. US and European markets were closed on Monday for the New Year's holiday and opened higher on Tuesday, thanks to some better Germany employment and Chinese PMI data, plus a strong US ISM manufacturing report. However S&P's threat to downgrade the sovereign ratings of leading euro zone nations, especially France, continue to cast a long shadow and have curtailed greater risk appetite in the market. Rumors that the S&P downgrades were imminent contributed to equity downdrafts all week. In addition, there were reminders of weakness in Italy and Spain, as yields on the 10-year debt of both nations remained elevated (the Italian yield exited the week above 7%). Italian bank UniCredit was forced to sell new shares at a steep discount to shore up its credit base, driving big declines among European banking names. In addition, there were reports that the Spanish region of Valencia would delay a bond payment. On Friday the US December non-farm payroll report came in at +200K and the private payrolls number was +212K, topping both consensus estimates and the November numbers (+120K and +140K, respectively). These totals are still not near the levels many analysts say are needed to begin really replacing the jobs lost over the last several years, but the upward trend of new job growth is encouraging. There was a flurry of new developments at the Fed. In the minutes of the Dec 13th FOMC meeting, the Fed disclosed that it would provide a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) four times a year starting in January. Later the Fed's Bullard said the FOMC is very close to implementing an inflation target. The four recent Fed dissenters rotated off the FOMC (hawks Fisher, Plosser and Kocherlakota, and the dove Evans), to be replaced by a more dovish slate of voters (Pianalto, Lacker, Lockhart and Williams). Chairman Bernanke commented that it would be appropriate to bring foreclosed homes into the rental market to help dampen downward price movements. Note that there were also rumors that the White House was planning a large-scale mortgage refinance plan, which was later denied. Late Friday, however, Freddie Mac announced that the FHFA had directed it to extend forbearance to unemployed borrowers for up to 12 months, which could affect up to 10% of delinquencies on mortgages administered by Freddie. Front-month WTI crude spent most of the week above the $100 handle as the Europeans prepared fresh sanctions against Iran, which held naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and generally rattled its scimitar. Brent hit $113. For the week the DJIA gained 1.2%, the NASDAQ rose 2.7%, and the S&P 500 tacked on 1.6%, thanks largely to big gains on the first trading day of the year.

- Another group of companies discloses troubling pre-earnings guidance this week. Barnes & Noble slashed its FY12 outlook to a fairly large loss. The change was due primarily to a shortfall in the expected sales of NOOK ebook readers coupled with more investment in the technology as management lays plans to spin off the NOOK business. Eli Lilly offered a grim look at 2012, warning that both its earnings and revenue totals would disappoint market expectations. Executives further warned about patent expirations on some of the company's largest products, most notably the antipsychotic Zyprexa and the antidepressant Cymbalta. Refiner Tesoro said it would report a big loss in its Q4 and slashed its FY11 outlook. Contributing to the net loss was an extremely weak margin environment in California and the collapse of the WTI-Brent spread. Alcoa announced that it would close or curtail 12% of its total aluminum smelting capacity, with a charge to Q4 earnings of $0.15-0.16. The company also said it would accelerate actions to reduce the escalating cost of raw materials.

- The December same-store sales (SSS) were on the whole better than expected, however promotional discounts ate into profits and many firms lowered guidance for the final quarter of the year. The discount chains TJX and Ross Stores attracted thrifty Christmas shoppers and beat comparable store expectations by wide margins. Meanwhile, the Gap continues to bleed away sales, reporting its sixth straight month of y/y same store sales contraction. Interestingly American Eagle Outfitters, which abandoned providing monthly SSS reports, said its comps were up 12% in the Nov-Dec period. AEO also slashed its Q4 guidance by about 25%, citing promotional activity. Target had a very bad month, with comps dropping to +1.6%, their lowest level since spring. Target also cuts its Q4 guidance, on softer holiday sales. Department stores also generally outperformed expectations, with the notable exception of Kohl's, whose comps were in the red for the second consecutive month.

- US Treasury yields finished the week above where they closed out 2011, but the selling was subdued considering the better US jobs data. The benchmark 10-year yield briefly topped 2% following both the ADP and non-farm payrolls figures, but weakness emanating out of Europe kept an underlying bid in US government paper. Corporate issuance was particularly robust with more than $12B in paper coming to market, for the most active week since last summer. Banks on both sides of the pond were aggressive in their efforts to get out ahead of more than $230B in US corporate debt roll-overs coming due in 2012 (this compares to $195B in 2011). According to data from Barclays, approx €794B of European sovereign bonds will need to be issued in 2012 (above the long-term average, but less than 2010's record €952B in sovereign issuance). The Independent reported that the world's top economies will need to roll over a combined total of $7.6T in 2012, with Japan requiring the most at $3T and the US needing $2.8T.

- Currency traders cannot tear themselves away from the deepening crisis in Europe, where everyone is nervously waiting for the rating agencies to pull the trigger. Absent the looming sovereign downgrades, there was the potential for more risk appetite, in the form of some slightly improved final December manufacturing PMI data in European and Asian nations, plus the good showing in the December US employment data. As the first week of the year rolled on, dealers became keenly aware of a breakdown in the risk on/weak dollar trend -- typically throughout 2011 the dollar was sold on any return of risk appetite, however this correlation appears to be falling apart as investors have bought the greenback on any sign of overall strength.

- EUR/USD began 2012 with an updraft taking the pair back above 1.30, from the 2011 year-end closing level of 1.2970. However, the continued focus on the sovereign situation hammered the euro in the back half of the week, as pessimism and the shifting dynamic with the dollar sent the pair down to 1.2700 level last seen in August of 2010. In a sign of the stress, the ECB deposit facility continued to hit record highs, closing the week with a whopping €455B parked in the facility. With the prospective of weeks and months of further consultations over Europe's new fiscal integration plans ahead even as yields on Spanish and Italian debt remain elevated, there is plenty of pessimism. The Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) began the year by forecasting that the euro would lose a member in 2012. Reports that the Spanish region of Valencia was late in making a bond payment also highlighted these concerns. The EUR/JPY cross continued to hover at 11-year lows, unable to sustain any momentum above the 100 level. The cross tested 98.30 by the end of the week.

- Europe's emerging economies were also in focus this week. In Turkey, the central bank is maneuvering to aid a soft landing for the nation's cooling economy while also warding off the shocks from Europe. The Turkish Central Bank was selling elevated amounts of USD for TRY in order to support the lira throughout the week. After ratifying a new law that weakened its central bank, Hungary's government took heat all week from both markets and European Union officials. In addition, there were growing questions about the nation's ability to finance itself in public markets. This week the forint was testing fresh record lows against the euro, approaching the 325 level on Wednesday, before backing off again. The yield on 10-year Hungarian sovereign paper hit its highest level in two and a half years, testing above 11.20%, while 5-year CDS hit fresh all-time highs above 725bps.

Notable economic data out of Asia was limited to Australia's November trade report, which showed continued deceleration in basic materials shipment activity. Coming in at a 9-month low surplus of A$1.38B, the trade report's components also revealed a 4-month low in exports to China and a 7-month low in the exports of iron ore. The Reserve Bank of Australia is not meeting this month, while fixed income markets are pricing in a slight probability of another cut in February.



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