Thursday, September 6, 2012

Sep 6 2012

Catch of the Day, DBI type of a breakdown. sealing profitable day as a nicely profitable.



Session Time: Thu Sep 06 00:00:00 2012
[08:29] {nemo} mmmmhhhhh IWM stopped right at that volume overhang starting at .76....let's see if Draghi can punch it through
[08:30] {nemo} now that was interesting...75 cent stop hunt
[08:43] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 365K V 370KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.322M V 3.315ME
[08:43] {nemo} oh, decided to get out of bed
[08:43] {nemo} ?
[08:43] {nemo} see stop hunt at 8:30 on IWM?
[08:44] {Threei}  nah, moved whole rig over there
[08:44] {nemo} ahhh...suspend monitors from the ceiling?
[08:44] {Threei}  let's see what Draghi said
[08:44] {Threei}  (EU) ECB'S Draghi: ECB has decided to undertake bond purchases in secondary markets, new MOT program has conditions; fears of the reversibility of the euro are unfounded - prepared remark
[08:44] {Threei}  s- Bond purchases will help reduce the severe distortions in government bond markets, ECB is acting strictly within its mandate to protect price stability.
[08:44] {Threei}  - Conditions include collateral requirements [notes that details will be described in a separate press release]
[08:44] {Threei}  - Economic indicators point to a weak second half, economic recovery will be very gradual. Global slowdown is hindering the growth outlook, financial market tension is weighing on sentiment. - Reiterates that inflation will remain above 2% in 2012 and fall below 2% in 2013, inflation risks are broadly balanced in the mid-term.
[08:44] {Threei}  - Reiterates underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued, economic growth in the euro zone remains weak.
[08:44] {Threei}  - Intensifying global crisis could tip the balance of inflation risks to the downside, higher oil prices over recent months or higher indirect taxes could push inflation higher
[08:44] {Threei}  . - Subdued loan growth reflects balance sheet adjustments. Sound bank balance sheets are key for credit provision.
[08:52] {Threei}  feels to me it fell short of expectations
[08:53] {nemo} ya' think?
[08:53] {Threei}  I don't
[08:53] {nemo} oh yeah, sorry, forgive me
[08:54] {Threei}  I compare what he says to what he used to say in that famous preomises that goosed the market a few weeks ago
[09:02] {goryl} gm all
[09:02] {RonS} hello everyone
[09:03] {jackharry} good morning
[09:03] {nemo} Gawd this is painful
[09:04] {Threei}  gory, ron, jack :)
[09:06] {jackharry} Vad.....when do you normally sell your first partial....for example if break was .50 and you fill at .52, do you sell at 1:1 at .60 or .62?
[09:06] {Threei}  .60
[09:07] {jackharry} ok, thanks
[09:07] {Threei}  market doesn't care where my orders are executed, it's patterns are objective
[09:07] {Threei}  its
[09:09] {nemo} http://goo.gl/HGLNp
[09:10] {Threei}  ES) Spain PM Rajoy: no decision yet on whether to ask for sovereign aid program; have not read ECB Draghi's full statement yet on bond buying plan- Made no promises for new reforms today in meetings with Merkel.
[09:10] {dino} gm
[09:10] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:15] {dptl} gm
[09:17] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:18] {Threei}  "There is no explicit upfront cap, but the size of the credit lines...is expected to vary between 2-10% of GDP."
[09:18] {Threei}  jeez
[09:20] {scottie} gm
[09:20] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:20] {Threei}  http://pointsandfigures.com/2012/09/06/the-ecb-solution/
[09:20] {Beau} good morning all
[09:21] {Will49} gm
[09:22] {Threei}  beau, will :)
[09:24] {Threei}  market seems fairly confused about Draghi speech
[09:31] {dolores} hello GM
[09:31] {Threei}  dolores :)
[09:31] {Threei}  watchCLF for pullback entry
[09:31] {Threei}  near .60
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  CLF  .60 break
[09:31] {Threei}  hl
[09:32] {Threei}  change to .30
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .15
[09:32] {nemo} grinding up
[09:33] {Threei}  no chance
[09:33] {nemo} just hit R3 on spy daily
[09:33] {Threei}  if anyone managed to get it, half out
[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .55 break
[09:34] {nemo} iwm almost through volume overhang, we get through that...and consolidate above...off to the races
[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[09:35] {dino} i hate these kind of starts
[09:37] {nemo} looks like they're gonna' run this thing
[09:37] {nemo} 143.10 is next real resistance for spy
[09:38] {Threei}  should pull back now
[09:39] {Threei}  LVS double topping... need it to stay under .60 and lose .50 now
[09:39] {nemo} short nflx below .60
[09:39] {nemo} partialing at .35 ish
[09:40] {nemo} stop above .70
[09:40] {nemo} out
[09:40] {nemo} ow
[09:40] {dino} bidu drop
[09:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .40 break
[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[09:41] {Threei}  KVS 1:1
[09:41] {Threei}  LVS
[09:42] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:42] {Threei}  aww, too soon
[09:42] {Threei}  1:3
[09:42] {nemo} rinse nflx
[09:43] {Threei}  FAZ target around .55
[09:44] {dolores} wow why are they killing CLF even more today?
[09:44] {Threei}  half out FAZ
[09:44] {nemo} must think Obama will get re-elected
[09:45] {Threei}  stop to .39
[09:45] {dolores} the downgrade is being more eective today
[09:45] {RonS} couple of calls that iron ore will hit $50/ton...clf
[09:45] {dino} think its the euro printing presses nemo
[09:48] {RonS} copper not participating in this rally...
[09:50] {dolores} it makes it vulnerable to take over
[09:51] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break
[09:51] {Threei}  .76 stop
[09:53] {Threei}  half out
[09:53] {Threei}  stop to .71 and let's try for around .50
[09:54] {Threei}  unless SPY breaks .50
[09:54] {Threei}  out FAZ remainder
[09:55] {nemo} spy looks ready to go
[09:57] {nemo} ISM
[09:57] {nemo} spy ready to go either way on the number
[09:59] {nemo} we be ripping
[10:00] {Threei}  53,7 vs 52.5E
[10:00] {nemo} o.k. cool aid drinking to commence
[10:00] {nemo} kool
[10:00] {nemo} HFT should try to fade this
[10:01] {nemo} ain't working should go hihgher..iwm through volume overhang
[10:03] {nemo} above 143.10 spy runs into heavy confluence
[10:03] {nemo} IWM going
[10:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .65 break
[10:05] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[10:07] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:11] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break
[10:11] {RonS} tngo fast down
[10:12] {Threei}  if that triggers and works, we will look at the setup in details, it's an interesting one
[10:12] {Threei}  target around .65
[10:13] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:13] {nemo} consolidates above .00 probably long
[10:13] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[10:14] {nemo} l fcx .03
[10:14] {nemo} sto is .95ish
[10:14] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:15] {nemo} spy should go test above 143 now
[10:18] {nemo} raising stop to .99
[10:19] {nemo} mmmhhhh....indexes weakening
[10:19] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .70 break
[10:21] {nemo} spy at trend
[10:22] {nemo} offering .13 fcx
[10:22] {Threei}  change to .75 breaK LVS
[10:23] {Threei}  stop .81
[10:23] {nemo} short here
[10:23] {nemo} but not sure if market gonna come in yet
[10:24] {Threei}  bid half .66
[10:24] {Threei}  out, stop to .76
[10:25] {nemo} next partial .29 on fcx
[10:25] {nemo} stop is .09ish
[10:28] {Threei}  OK, so far:
[10:28] {dolores} not out LVS?
[10:28] {dino} gj fcx nemo
[10:28] {Threei}  4 for 4, but trailing stops for the balance get tagged, 3 invalidations
[10:28] {goryl} vad, what setup was LVS?
[10:28] {Threei}  out of course
[10:28] {dolores} ok thxs
[10:29] {nemo} o.k. spy should turn into a slog in this area
[10:29] {Threei}  JBE failure
[10:29] {dolores} whats a slog nemo?
[10:29] {nemo} buying small pot
[10:30] {nemo} stop under .l85
[10:30] {nemo} .85
[10:30] {goryl} unbelievable trading but i'm having some difficulties identifying the setups in real-time.
[10:30] {Threei}  it's your 3rd day!
[10:30] {goryl} i know:)
[10:30] {Threei}  give yourself a bit more slack, will ya?}? :)
[10:30] {nemo} yeah...you suck
[10:30] {goryl} so much to learn:)
[10:31] {Threei}  takes a little longer than 3 days, believ me :)
[10:31] {nemo} more than u know ;-)
[10:31] {dolores} take it easy
[10:31] {Will49} oh oh...you've attracted to shark already
[10:31] {dolores} takes some time
[10:31] {nemo} valium helps
[10:31] {Will49} gorl
[10:31] {nemo} oh oh...Now I'm hearing Cat Stevens
[10:31] {Threei}  - NYSE volume 150M shares, about 2% below its three-month average;. - NASDAQ volume 420M shares, about 16% above its three-month average;
[10:31] {nemo} oops...I mean Yusef Islam
[10:31] {Threei}  volume picks up a bit
[10:31] {robbers} There's a rhythm to it that you'll get used to, goryl.
[10:32] {nemo} and now I'm in Neil Diamond mode on FCX
[10:32] {Threei}  good one on FCX
[10:32] {nemo} hold ur nose and buy
[10:33] {nemo} stop .19
[10:33] {nemo} hehehehe...spy hit's 143.08 and....
[10:35] {nemo} oh boy look at this
[10:35] {nemo} wow, this is impressive
[10:36] {Threei}  considering how much I hater these slow climb days and how badly they are suited for my trading style, I am happy with today's performance so far
[10:36] {Threei}  now, let's make sure that we don't repeat yesterday mistake and don't let it evaporate
[10:36] {Threei}  the way we do it is,
[10:37] {Threei}  we put trailing stop on our trading account for the day:
[10:37] {Threei}  half of profit at this point is a "stop trading for the day" point
[10:38] {Threei}  we pick trades and position sizes that do not jeopardize more than half of profit we have so far,
[10:38] {Threei}  and if that point is hit, no more live trades.
[10:38] {Threei}  if the next trade is stopped and it ate 1/4 of profit, you have 1/4 more to waste,
[10:39] {Threei}  If the next trade is profitable, we will trail stop to 2/3
[10:39] {Threei}  etc
[10:39] {Threei}  concept is clear?
[10:39] {goryl} yep
[10:39] {nemo} o.k. I'm on for 153 by end of September
[10:39] {jackharry} y
[10:39] {Will49} y
[10:39] {Threei}  cool
[10:39] {scottie} y
[10:39] {Threei}  or as my kids say, kewl
[10:40] {dolores} y
[10:40] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[10:41] {dino} tngo drop
[10:41] {nemo} stop .38ish for fcx
[10:41] {Threei}  that's what I think nemo... world has moved their stops to under .40 now
[10:41] {Threei}  so break of it should trigger avakance of sell orders
[10:42] {Threei}  k=l
[10:42] {Threei}  can't keyboard manufacturers move these two letters farther from each other?
[10:42] {Threei}  or insert third one between them?
[10:43] {dino} sm l .51 tngo
[10:46] {Threei}  (UK) UK Business Sec Cable: QE is only a 'narrow' mechanism in which to boost the economy, other methods should be explored
[10:46] {Threei}  even those who have some reservations about QE don't get it
[10:46] {Threei}  it doesn't boost anything
[10:46] {Threei}  it buys you time
[10:46] {Threei}  that's all
[10:46] {Threei}  and it has costs attached
[10:46] {jackharry} Cable is also known as the anti-business secretary
[10:46] {Threei}  overdo it, it kills you
[10:47] {Threei}  don't use the time it bought you, you wasted it
[10:47] {Threei}  you remember the words my conference will start with (helloe nemo's favorite dangling preposition), right?
[10:48] {Threei}  and my next book too, btw
[10:48] {goryl} fcx, wouldn't you go for the jbe long setup vad?  what made u change it to a short?  stuff like this is still unclear:)
[10:49] {Threei}  these slow climbs don't continue for the whole day as a rule,
[10:49] {Threei}  they tend to stall and flatline, or stage some retreat
[10:49] {Threei}  this is what I am trying to play
[10:50] {nemo} today is not a rational day, until the indexes break trend lines, I ain't lookin' short
[10:50] {Threei}  odds are on a short side, so my idea is to play it or get invalidated
[10:50] {nemo} they may be there, but the odds are against it
[10:50] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:50] {goryl} ok, thanks
[10:50] {Threei}  you have long position from 50 cents ago nemo; would you initiate new long here if you didn't?
[10:51] {dino} tngo stop -.32
[10:51] {nemo} not sure that's the question
[10:51] {nemo} Would I initiate a short here
[10:51] {Threei}  if it set up, absolutely
[10:51] {nemo} answer is not until we get trend line breaks on the indexes
[10:51] {Threei}  look again at this chart without last spike over .50,
[10:52] {Threei}  isn't it very likely that stops were moved to under .40, just as you did?
[10:52] {nemo} I agree
[10:52] {Threei}  would be a mortal sin not to exploit that
[10:52] {Threei}  and I am not a mortal sinner
[10:52] {nemo} well, that's where the art comes in
[10:52] {Threei}  well... ummm
[10:52] {nemo} and I like sinning btw
[10:52] {nemo} setup in context
[10:52] {nemo} imo
[10:52] {Threei}  right
[10:53] {nemo} wtf do I know
[10:53] {Will49} more than me
[10:53] {dino} tngo sm l .85
[10:53] {nemo} now, IWM is at WR3
[10:53] {Threei}  well... as dino would quote, "born in sin? come on in!"
[10:53] {Threei}  lol:
[10:53] {Threei}  (EU) Germany BDB banking association: ECB bond purchases should only be conducted on an emergency basis
[10:54] {Threei}  it's every day that EU is going to have emergency
[10:54] {nemo} stop is .45ish
[10:59] {goryl} vad, roughly what percentage of ur trades come from the scanner?  I know u keep a few of ur favorites (fcx, slw, etc.) on a watchlist
[10:59] {nemo} stop .49ish
[11:00] {Threei}  (US) DOE CRUDE: 7.42M V -5ME; GASOLINE: -2.33M V -3.5ME; DISTILLATE: +1.0M V -2ME; UTILIZATION: 86.1% V 88%E
[11:00] {Threei}  I don't know goryl... it changes
[11:00] {Threei}  some days it has nothing for me, some days it's almost all I have
[11:01] {Threei}  also, it plays important role aside of offering trade andidates
[11:01] {Threei}  it indicates level of activity by the pace of scrolling,
[11:01] {Threei}  it shows which kind of setups are more active
[11:02] {Threei}  (EU) Euopean Union said to be seeking unilateral oversight of EMU banks from the ECB - financial press
[11:05] {nemo} out .53 fcx
[11:05] {dino} tngo wicked
[11:06] {Beau} excellent nemo.
[11:06] {nemo} true
[11:06] {Will49} FCX was nice slow trade for a gunslinger eh? nemo
[11:07] {Will49} gunslinger like you
[11:07] {nemo} I'm really not a gunslinger...gotta' talk to cipher about that....personally, I prefer sniping from distance
[11:07] {Threei}  he is a nice slow gunslinger
[11:07] {Beau} and modest
[11:08] {nemo} about the only stock I might "gunsling" is the iwm/spy stuff, but that's a very mechanical system I have for that
[11:08] {Threei}  nice slow modest gunslinger... nemo, aka NSMG
[11:08] {Will49} :)
[11:08] {nemo} O.K.   it's getting a little deep around here
[11:10] {nemo} I like to set up a nice steady rest, measure distance, dope the wind, check for mirages, and set crosshairs
[11:12] {Will49} Nemo Bourne
[11:12] {dino} pwer drop
[11:12] {nemo} oy vay...he's from my neck of the woods
[11:12] {dino} more like the bourne nemo
[11:14] {nemo} frankly, that trade was based on Vad's short call
[11:14] {Threei}  fading invalidated setup
[11:14] {nemo} it had tested .95, vad I think was looking for a.90 break short
[11:14] {Threei}  yup
[11:14] {nemo} well, kinda' I was watching it
[11:15] {nemo} I figured this was a day where things were gonna go longer than they "rationally" should
[11:15] {nemo} However, FCX hadn't even reached R2 for the day
[11:16] {nemo} so, when it spiked over 36 on high volume, dropped ever so slightly below 36, then rebid
[11:16] {nemo} I figured it wanted higher
[11:17] {nemo} I took .03, but traditional setup would have been to 1) wait until it broke that candle wick at .04, or wait until it broke and retested support somewhere
[11:18] {nemo} As I said, not a rational day, it had already tested under the whole number and rebid, so I set the stop under the 1 minute candle from which FCX originally broke 36.  That made the stop .96ish
[11:18] {nemo} then I held my nose
[11:18] {RonS} Shares of Tangoe, Inc. (TNGO:$13.81,00$-3.19,00-18.76%) are down 16.9% to $14.13 after a negative report on the company was issued by Copperfield Research, according to StreetInsider.
[11:18] {RonS} In their report, Copperfield Research stated: "After doing a deep dive into Tangoe's (TNGO:$13.785,0$-3.215,0-18.91%) financials, it is our belief that the company has significantly misrepresented its de novo growth rate, while demonstrating many of the telltale shenanigans and behavior that tends to be a harbinger for blow ups. We believe that an SEC investi
[11:19] {RonS} an SEC investigation may be warranted based on our belief Tangoe (TNGO:$13.665,0$-3.335,0-19.62%) publicly misrepresented its organic growth rates, and altered material biographic information, in front of a large secondary offering."
[11:20] {dino} ty ron
[11:20] {RonS} yw
[11:22] {Threei}  (EU) Germany's Bundesbank comments that Weidmann did highlight opposition to bond purchases in recent conversations; saw bond purchases as 'too close' to Govt financing and printing money- Sees risks that monetary policy could become too dependent on fiscal policy; risks exist for central bank to distribute risk to taxpayers - notes that only Governments can redistribute risks between states and that ECB interventions in the bond market may delay reform measures and cut trust in Govts - Reminder: Earlier ECB's Draghi commented that there was 1 dissenter during the ECB meetings
[11:23] {Threei}  (EU) IMF Chief Lagarde: Strongly welcomes ECB bond buy program, stand ready to cooperate "within our frameworks"
[11:23] {Threei}  but of course
[11:23] {Threei}  well, after German court caving in on Sept 12 apocalypsys starts in earnest
[11:25] {dino} tngo stop -.31
[11:30] {nemo} today was a breakout, jobs number tomorrow, which, unless it's ridiculously good, could make for profit taking...how much profit taking can push the market down will likely determine the next leg
[11:30] {nemo} I'm on record for 153 by end of September
[11:31] {nemo} hehehehe IWM new high, it found support at the weekly R3
[11:32] {Threei}  lol... http://goo.gl/5btHN
[11:32] {nemo} looks like my family portrait
[11:32] {Will49} :P
[11:33] {RonS} first thought was that it was depiciton of the german taxpayer....
[11:33] {dptl} lol BOHICA
[11:33] {Will49} lol
[11:33] {Will49} lol
[11:35] {Threei}  "What they are planning is what they have done so far. Pump more and more money in to failed banks, create new bad banks so they too can be given public money that disappears when they too fail, and then turn around and tell the tax payer that the nation has spent too much and the government will, with crocodile tears in their eyes, have to close some hospitals, cut wages, �liberalize� the work place, fire thousands of lazy, good for nothing public service workers, and then wonder why tax revenues are going down and banks are seeing money leave."
[11:37] {Will49} tell us how you REALL feel, Vad
[11:37] {Will49} REALLY
[11:38] {Will49} oh oh...guess hat wasn't you who said that
[11:38] {Will49} that
[11:38] {Threei}  no, quote
[11:38] {Will49} sounded like you though
[11:38] {Threei}  well, that's why I quote it :)
[11:39] {Threei}  funny thing though is, artcile ends with:
[11:39] {Threei}  And the people, us, what will we do?
[11:39] {dolores} is this a new leg up?
[11:39] {Threei}  but here is a problem: do the people insist on government getting out of the way and letting market work,
[11:39] {Threei}  or do the people insiust that government fix it?
[11:39] {nemo} on what dolores, spy?
[11:39] {dolores} all
[11:40] {Threei}  I doubt it... time for a stall, IMO
[11:40] {Will49} 80% of people don't know what's going on
[11:40] {nemo} hard to say...I'm with Vad
[11:40] {dolores} thxs
[11:40] {Will49} and 70% don't care, as long as handouts keep coming
[11:41] {dino} thats what its about, vote buying
[11:41] {dino} pwer sm l .00
[11:41] {RonS} hit 16 min ago:  BREAKING: Bundesbank says President Weidmann opposes ECB bond buys
[11:42] {Will49} yada yad yada
[11:42] {Threei}  Ron... et tu have me on ignore
[11:42] {dolores} well he can oppose all he wants
[11:43] {dolores} don't think they will listen to him too m uch
[11:43] {Will49} these Europeans make  a contradictory statement every few hours to keep everyone on edge
[11:43] {dolores} if they back off from bonds now it will be chaos
[11:43] {Threei}  and if they buy them unlimited...?
[11:44] {dolores} this will soar
[11:44] {Threei}  yes, and in a year or two...?
[11:44] {dolores} and then will be chaos
[11:44] {Threei}  when it finally becomes clear that this is endless crisis
[11:45] {Threei}  correct, but it will be chaos with much deeper hole
[11:45] {Will49} endless is the operative word
[11:45] {Threei}  the only sane thing is to back off now and let it crash
[11:45] {dino} agree
[11:45] {Threei}  it's dead
[11:45] {Will49} they won't
[11:45] {Threei}  don't keep it in zombied state
[11:45] {Will49} they will
[11:46] {Threei}  yeah... unfortunately
[11:46] {RonS} omg...channeling Doris Day here...
[11:46] {Will49} so we might as well accept it...it's the REALITY
[11:46] {Threei}  and come Movember, we will know if we vote them in time and again
[11:47] {Will49} buy hard assets and vote for change
[11:47] {Will49} that's all we can do
[11:47] {Threei}  problem with hard assets is,
[11:47] {Threei}  it's a fine game for wealth preservation
[11:47] {Threei}  it doesn't work for day-to-day expenses
[11:47] {Will49} lesser of two evils
[11:47] {Threei}  where most of population is
[11:48] {Threei}  you can't exchange parsel of your land or piece of your gold bar for a loaf of bread
[11:48] {Will49} it's BOHICA for most people unfortunately
[11:49] {Threei}  yup, and bums in power make it worse on every turn
[11:49] {Threei}  and we sheepishly vote them in again
[11:50] {Will49} will take at least a generation to cleanse the political system
[11:50] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 breeak
[11:50] {Threei}  just a scalp most likely
[11:51] {Threei}  unless frau Merkel helps out
[11:53] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[12:09] {dino} tngo l .60
[12:11] {dino} stop to .74
[12:12] {dino} to .83
[12:12] {dino} out +.23
[12:16] {Threei}  wtg
[12:19] {dino} ty
[12:25] {Threei}  (EU) EU court said to have ruled that approved genetically modified crops do not need country approval- Court comments from Pioneer Hi Bred v Italy case.
[12:26] {Threei}  that's what you get for yeilding to centralized ppowers... don't want GM crops in your country? too bad, EU approved it
[12:28] {dino} pwer to .20
[12:29] {Threei} Short Setup: RAI  .12
[12:30] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[12:30] {Threei} Short Setup: DG  .40 break
[12:30] {Threei}  .c .50
[12:30] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[12:39] {Threei}  DG target 1:2
[12:42] {Threei}  stop to .46
[12:43] {dino} out pwer +.20
[12:44] {Threei}  grrr
[12:49] {jackharry} RAI still valid?
[12:49] {Threei}  I think so
[12:49] {Threei}  bvarely touched above .20
[12:49] {Threei}  barely
[12:52] {nemo} any bets on an end of day run higher?  ;-)
[12:53] {dino} longer it holds better the chance imo
[12:53] {nemo} imo2
[12:53] {Threei}  I have no O
[12:53] {Threei}  I hate the stall
[12:54] {Threei}  and severely dislike ECB, EMU and scented candles
[12:55] {Threei}  I also don't like Prius but that's irrelevant
[12:56] {RonS} every freakin one around here has an O sticker...
[12:56] {dino} Obummer
[12:57] {Will49} OMG
[13:11] {dino} fosl sm s .10 stop hod
[13:16] {nemo} iwm spy starting to look long again on higher time frame
[13:19] {Threei}  covered half RAI
[13:19] {Threei}  jack, you in?
[13:23] {Threei}  anyone in?
[13:23] {Threei}  anyone's breathing?
[13:23] {Threei}  anyone's on this planet?
[13:23] {scottie} just came back
[13:23] {dolores} yes I am in and out for  a while
[13:23] {dptl} out .01 ty
[13:23] {dolores} missed the lst one bt doing well today
[13:24] {Threei}  ok... I thought I was last man on earth
[13:24] {Threei}  and started looking for that one last woman
[13:24] {dolores} will go out for 30 minutes in awhile
[13:25] {Will49} went to sleep watching RAI
[13:25] {Will49} but scalped for .08
[13:25] {Will49} finally
[13:25] {Threei}  :)
[13:25] {Will49} I'm gettin' it....slowly
[13:25] {dino} gj
[13:26] {Threei}  slowly is good
[13:26] {Will49} yes..keep reminding me
[13:26] {Will49} tks Dino
[13:26] {Threei}  in my table tennis years, I had a privilege to train for a month under the Moscow champion
[13:26] {Threei}  his favorite saying was:
[13:27] {Threei}  the move you learned quickly is the one you'll forget first
[13:27] {Will49} true dat
[13:27] {scottie} Good, then at the speed I learn, I'll remember everything
[13:27] {Will49} lol
[13:29] {nemo} hey beau!
[13:30] {nemo} I posted what I was looking at in fcx on the blog
[13:40] {dptl} met .10 short?
[13:42] {Threei}  50/50
[13:45] {dino} cacc?
[13:48] {Threei}  don't see anything but earnings oln aug 02
[13:48] {dino} same here, odd
[13:48] {goryl} see you all tomorrow
[13:49] {Threei}  take care goryl
[13:49] {scottie} goryl
[13:49] {Threei}  EU) German Fin Min Schauble: Calls on political figures to restrain their commentary about the ECB- ECB independence is highly valuable. - If the EU cannot unite, it will become irrelevant. - Global economy would be less stable without the euro. - Believes the ESM is legal under the German Constitution. - Fiscal problems cannot be solved via monetary policy.
[13:50] {Will49} Mr Obvious
[13:50] {RonS} heretic
[13:51] {robbers} One of the EU's governing bodies said they might "force" Greece into a six-day work week.  Am thinking no way they'll agree to doubling their work week.
[13:51] {Will49} lol
[13:51] {Threei}  lol
[13:52] {robbers} http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/eurozone-demands-greece-mandate-six-day-workweek-exchange-bailout-article-1.1152806
[13:54] {robbers} You can't "mandate" discipline.  If so, Three would be able to make all of us better traders.
[13:54] {Beau} nemo, sorry late but was out picking up new puter.  mine crashed.  setting up new one now but don't have blog address on yet. want to send it to me or will wait until all restored.  do want to see it. thans
[13:55] {robbers} As it is, he does everything humanly possible.
[13:55] {Will49} right on robbers
[13:55] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/cj253
[13:56] {robbers} And while he's making us better traders, he can make us better at table tennis, too.
[13:56] {jackharry} An interesting article on Greece - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2007949/The-Big-Fat-Greek-Gravy-Train-A-special-investigation-EU-funded-culture-greed-tax-evasion-scandalous-waste.html
[13:58] {Will49} If Germany isn't careful, Greece will cut off their supply of feta
[13:58] {Threei}  and olives
[13:58] {Will49} :)
[13:58] {robbers} And Grecian Formula 44.
[13:58] {Will49} lol
[14:39] {Threei} Short Setup: PAY  .20 break
[14:40] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[14:41] {Threei}  hey, in adition to table tennis, I can offer photography lessons and, if I massage my memory thoroughly, chess :)
[14:41] {robbers} You're Russian, we assumed chess.
[14:41] {Will49} no massage for me thanks
[14:42] {Threei}  well, russians are also known for ballet skills but I gotta warn you {GGG}
[14:42] {robbers} LOL.
[14:49] {Will49} what's the "restricted short sale" warning about?
[14:50] {Threei}  my wife just read this line over my shoulder... I may be responsible for her heart attack caused by hysterical laughter bout of which hit her after she squeezed words "you... dance... eeck"
[14:50] {Will49} lol
[14:50] {Threei}  hmmm... I didn't get it
[14:51] {Threei}  did your order go through?
[14:51] {Will49} no
[14:51] {Threei}  OK, not enough shares in broker inventory
[14:52] {Will49} said "price should be higher than national best price"
[14:53] {Threei}  oohhh
[14:53] {jackharry} I think it's the uptick rule - every short sale transaction be entered at a price that is higher than the price of the previous trade.  Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/uptickrule.asp#ixzz25iX3w2Kb
[14:53] {Threei}  OK, that was uptick rule then
[14:53] {Threei}  try ARCA
[14:53] {Will49} yeah...i remember now
[14:53] {Threei}  it should allow order entering, it just won't hit bid,
[14:54] {cc_8} bingo
[14:54] {cc_8} if it doesnt hit the bid on a short
[14:54] {Threei}  but should keep order in the system until. it becomes an offer, and enter it in
[14:54] {cc_8} sit on the offer
[14:54] {Threei}  then you'll gbet filled if someone buys
[14:54] {cc_8} if that doesnt work, its just not shortable
[14:54] {Threei}  right
[14:55] {Threei}  wow, I still remember all these nooks and crannies
[14:56] {Will49} is that rule specific to certain stocks?
[14:57] {Will49} I've haven't seen that happen until now
[14:58] {jackharry} I think it applies if the stock has dropped more than 10%
[14:58] {Will49} tks jack... that would make sense
[14:59] {jackharry} The theory is that it allows longs who want to sell to get a chance first before shorters
[15:01] {dino} bstop to .85 fosl
[15:01] {dino} cov fosl +.25
[15:02] {Threei}  cover PAY who got it
[15:03] {Threei}  ain't it a beauty
[15:06] {Threei}  don't answer all at once
[15:07] {Will49} I'm in awe
[15:08] {Will49} thought that was a rhetorical question
[15:08] {Threei}  yeah yeah... everyone is all too happy to strangke me for each stop, but to get any praise for a winning trade, I have to get a 2x4 out
[15:08] {Threei}  sniff sniff
[15:08] {Will49} lol
[15:08] {Will49} pats Vad on top of head
[15:08] {Threei}  this just has to be nemo fault
[15:11] {Threei}  visual: http://goo.gl/Ox9Lm
[15:22] {robbers} Nice picture of a cascade.
[15:22] {scottie} Was away Vad, miossed that one :(
[15:23] {scottie} Beautiful trade
[15:24] {Threei}  :(
[15:25] {Threei}  wow... 1: "I can't count this far"
[15:52] {Threei}  Ok guys, thank you all
[15:52] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:52] {Will49} tks Vad
[15:52] {robbers} Good day, thanks.
[15:52] {Threei}  :)
[15:53] {dptl} gn all
[15:53] {dino} thks all, slightly down, 1st negative day since 8/17

fcx

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Sep 5 2012

Started the day with nice streak of 3 wins, and would have been just fine if closed the session on that. The rest of the day turned jellyfishy and took us in slightly negative ending. Oh well.

Session Time: Wed Sep 05 00:00:00 2012
[08:00] {nemo} o.k. what just happened
[08:09] {nemo} http://goo.gl/bQpK0
[08:18] {nemo} give the frickin' bunny a treat...does she hang around...NO...she goes running off with it...little bitch
[09:02] {ese} morning
[09:02] {jackharry} good morning
[09:02] {Threei}  ese, jack :)
[09:02] {ese} jack
[09:02] {ese} vad
[09:02] {ese} nemo
[09:03] {nemo} i'm leaving
[09:03] {ese} how come
[09:03] {goryl} gm
[09:03] {Threei}  he doesn't like us
[09:03] {Threei}  goryl :)
[09:04] {ese} i figured that
[09:04] {Threei}  which means we are doing something right
[09:04] {ese} lol
[09:04] {ese} welcome to the board gory
[09:05] {goryl} thanks:)
[09:07] {ese} you already know more than i do..............i've been on this board for about 4 years and still don't know how to do those little smilly face things
[09:08] {Threei}  hmmm
[09:08] {Threei}  you do have a keyboard, right?
[09:09] {goryl} :(
[09:09] {ese} yup
[09:09] {Threei}  well... to the right of L there is a ; which turns into : if you hold Shift
[09:10] {ese} ok
[09:10] {Threei}  and if you hokd that same sahift and hit 0, you get )
[09:11] {ese} :0
[09:11] {ese} hows that
[09:11] {Threei}  almost there
[09:11] {Threei}  don't forget shift when hitting 0
[09:11] {ese} gotcha
[09:11] {Threei}  mission accomplished
[09:11] {Threei}  can I go home?
[09:12] {ese} my impression of memo :-(   hows that
[09:12] {Beau} good morning all
[09:12] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:12] {ese} B
[09:12] {dino} gmn
[09:12] {dino} gm
[09:12] {ese} dino
[09:12] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:15] {Threei}  second day of Sept, second gap down
[09:16] {scottie} gm
[09:16] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:17] {Will49} gm
[09:19] {thomcbell} gm all - vad something out there on lvs?
[09:19] {Threei}  will :)
[09:19] {thomcbell} starting a bit slow today 
[09:20] {RonS} gm
[09:20] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:20] {Threei}  Las Vegas Sands Corp CEO Adelson to announce Paracuellos, Madrid as new site for EuroVegas Wed Sep 5th after US stock market close - ABC**REMINDER: in February 2011 reports indicated LVS was planning a �15B Vegas-style strip in Spain. In April 2012, LVS confirmed it will spend $35B to build resorts in Spain.
[09:20] {Threei}  that's all I see
[09:21] {thomcbell} thanks guys
[09:22] {RonS} swy gap up on gift card biz ipo
[09:26] {Threei}  - ECB's Knot (Netherlands) was said to be leading the opposition camp over bond purchases and sought to attach as many conditions to the program as possible. Finnish Central Banker Liikanen and Belgian National Bank head Coene were also said to support his view. Spain central bank GovLinde was leading the pro bond buying camp.
[09:26] {Threei}  lol
[09:27] {Threei}  SNB's Danthine commented that rising rates coupled with lower growth could raise default risk and stressed that both Swiss and global countries must act to avoid a new crisis . Switzerland was facing rising risk of default and correction and saw a build up of financial stability risk
[09:28] {dptl} gm
[09:29] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:30] {dino} fran sm l .00
[09:30] {thomcbell} etn a short in my opinion this am 
[09:30] {dino} out fran .40, +.40
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break hl
[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .80 
[09:32] {dino} fran sm l .50
[09:33] {dino} stop -.30
[09:34] {dino} fran sm l .73
[09:35] {dino} stop -.23
[09:35] {Threei}  1:1
[09:36] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:36] {dino} fran sm l .50
[09:36] {scottie} +.12 ty Vad
[09:38] {Threei}  yw
[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAS  .50 break hl
[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[09:40] {dino} fran stop again -.30
[09:40] {Threei}  invalidated, obviously
[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .90 break
[09:42] {Threei}  If holds  .80 
[09:42] {dino} bto sept fran 30 calls
[09:43] {Threei}  LVS not a scalp
[09:43] {Threei}  should be capable of 1:3
[09:44] {Threei}  1:1
[09:44] {dino} 07 red
06[09:45] * Threei slaps cc_8 around a bit with a large alarm clock
[09:46] {cc_8} sorry
[09:46] {cipher} fran l .50
[09:46] {thomcbell} covered half etn 
[09:48] {Threei}  LVS barely touched 1:2, couldn't exit second portion
[09:48] {cipher} out 1/2  00 +.50
[09:48] {dolores} hello GM
[09:48] {Threei}  dolores :)
[09:49] {Threei}  wtg cipher :)
[09:49] {dino} cipher, gj
[09:49] {dolores} did you get any of that CLF move?
[09:49] {dino} looks like beat on fran to me
[09:49] {nemo} nflx
[09:50] {thomcbell} flat etn
[09:50] {Threei}  didn't even look at it today yet
[09:50] {RonS} guy who made them success retiring...ceo fran
[09:50] {Threei}  too volatile, look at candles
[09:51] {cipher} out 1/4 more fran .20 +.70
[09:52] {dino} going to ride the calls, in at 2
[09:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .85 break
[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .75 
[09:55] {dino} tex sm l .60
[09:56] {Threei}  LVS at target
[09:56] {Threei}  bastid
[09:56] {Threei}  SLW 1:1
[09:57] {Threei}  with 3 out of 3, constitutes nice morning to me
[09:57] {goryl} when u get a chance, slw and lvs were db?
[09:58] {Threei}  LVS yes, with a twist: actual break was 41, and we took .90 as aggressive entry
[09:59] {Threei}  SLW garden variety
[10:00] {scottie} slw +.11 ty Vad
[10:00] {Threei}  yw
[10:00] {dolores} testing back in
[10:00] {Threei}  you are in
[10:01] {dolores} are we still in SLW?
[10:01] {Will49} slw +10 ty 
[10:01] {RonS} took tex .60 to .85  thanks dino
[10:02] {Will49} .10
[10:02] {Threei}  no dolores, went below entry
[10:02] {dolores} ok
[10:02] {dolores} was out
[10:02] {dolores}  wrong button and could not lgin again
[10:02] {cipher} out last 1/4 fran .50 +1
[10:03] {dino} sweet!
[10:07] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .35 break
[10:07] {Threei}  If holds  .25 
[10:07] {dolores} wow CLF all the weakness yesterday gone today
[10:08] {Threei}  target again 1:3
[10:10] {Threei}  S PY .20 break and run should seal the deal
[10:11] {dino} ctrx sm l .30
[10:12] {Threei}  let's trail LVS to .29
[10:12] {Threei}  want to decrease risk here
[10:12] {dino} out tex .04, +.44
[10:12] {thomcbell} nice Dino
[10:12] {Threei}  SPY uis a bit weird
[10:12] {dino} ty
[10:13] {Threei}  out
[10:13] {thomcbell} market still has the illiquid August 2012 feel
[10:13] {Threei}  ahhh
[10:13] {nemo} next week
[10:13] {Threei}  Merkel said magic words
[10:13] {thomcbell} qicked candle there on spy 
[10:13] {Threei}  (DE) Germany Merkel said to tell lawmakers she opposes unlimited bond purchases at ECB
[10:13] {dino} yeah, 07 scanner clunky, hasn' been smooth in month or two
[10:14] {Threei}  and robbed us of LVS winning trade
[10:15] {Threei}  amazing timing, LVS just started chewing through .40
[10:19] {nemo} frickin' thunderstorms
[10:20] {dino} had them here last night nemo, sent them your way
[10:21] {nemo} mhhhhh
[10:22] {dolores} credit suisse downgraded CLF to underperform with 30 target
[10:22] {Threei}  good timing
[10:22] {Threei}  lol
[10:22] {dolores} nice how investors reacted favorably
[10:23] {nemo} strong market FDX almost back to flat
[10:23] {dino} thats called "value added" service
[10:23] {dolores} yes
[10:24] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .80 break
[10:24] {Threei}  hl
[10:24] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
[10:25] {nemo} off to the races
[10:26] {Threei}  Merkel Said to find idea of ECB buying short maturities as acceptable on a temporary basis.
[10:26] {Threei}  market said, oh, there is nothing more permanent than temporarfy
[10:26] {nemo} like biblical "short"  as in 6 days to create the world
[10:28] {goryl} cat invalidated?
[10:29] {Threei}  no
[10:29] {Threei}  still valid
[10:29] {Threei}  not anymore
[10:29] {goryl} :)
[10:31] {dino} out ctrx .60, +.30
[10:31] {_catfish} i didn't trade it, but did it not break .80 and wouldn't that be a trade?  or does it have to hold under .80?  little confused
[10:32] {Threei}  it went over ,90 first, invalidating the trade
[10:32] {Threei}  look at 10:27 candle
[10:32] {Threei}  then it consolidated a bit again under .90
[10:33] {Threei}  thus my comment that it may be a trade again... then it went over .90 killing the idea
[10:33] {goryl} vad, what setup was that?
[10:33] {scottie} It went under .80, I got it at .79, and then covered at .92
[10:33] {Threei}  reversal on JBE failure
[10:34] {goryl} thanks
[10:35] {Beau} same scottie only .78
[10:35] {_catfish} 10:27 candle via LS--- High .89, Low .78  
[10:35] {_catfish} not trying to argue, just get a feel :)
[10:36] {Threei}  high .91
[10:37] {Will49} the elusive "moment of truth" ... to hit or not to hit
[10:38] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .55 break
[10:38] {Threei}  If holds  .65 
[10:38] {Threei}  double top
[10:38] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:39] {goryl} thanks:)
[10:39] {Threei}  Invalidated  
[10:40] {_catfish} may i ask what type of orders everyone uses, limit orders or buy stops for breaks or...?  what works best for you guys
[10:41] {Will49} all limit orders
[10:41] {Threei}  limit a couple cents beyond trigger price
[10:41] {Threei}  wow...
[10:41] {Threei}  (EU) Former ECB member Bini Smaghi: Unlimited money to banks is the only real option available
[10:42] {_catfish} ok
[10:42] {RonS} bini there, doni that...
[10:42] {dino} limits and buy/sell stops
[10:43] {dino} depends on thickness of bid/ask
[10:43] {Threei}  lol ron
[10:43] {Will49} sharp Ron
[10:43] {dino} lol bini, the only real solution is to get out of the way and let markets deal w/it
[10:44] {nemo} every politician would lose his job
[10:44] {dino} exactly
[10:44] {dino} thats the solution. they created it
[10:44] {Will49} and that's the name of the game...stay in power at all costs
[10:45] {Will49} and who does it cost?...us of course
[10:45] {dino} thats the problem. not about whats right, its about getting re-elected
[10:45] {Will49} right on
[10:45] {nemo} on a related note"
[10:46] {nemo} my left-wing professor friend was piping up how wonderful LBJ's Great Society was
[10:46] {nemo} I said he was the worst of the worst
[10:46] {RonS} dino giii could be a pulp short...
[10:46] {nemo} He used that duplicity to raid Social Security
[10:47] {nemo} mnst
[10:48] {Threei}  my conference session in Toronto is going to start with words "The world is full of idiots." Try to deny that after reading the above.
[10:48] {nemo} kors
[10:48] {Threei}  7.9 earthquake off Costa Rica
[10:49] {Will49} big one
[10:49] {nemo} 12/21/2012
[10:49] {nemo} Yellowstone is going to blow up
[10:49] {Threei}  LVS
[10:49] {Threei}  short setup is back
[10:49] {Threei}  ugh, late alert
[10:50] {Threei}  let's see if gives us a bounce for entry
[10:50] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  35 break
[10:51] {Threei}  LVS, in
[10:51] {dino} giii sm s .75
[10:51] {Threei}  sorry, mistype
[10:51] {Threei}  SLW tight stop .06
[10:53] {Threei}  let LVS go over .55, then we will reevaluate
[10:53] {_catfish} .17 lvs, starting to catch on
[10:53] {Threei}  cool
[10:53] {Threei}  no go SLW
[10:53] {dino} cov giii flat. thats a pretty decent report ron
[10:54] {Threei}  I liked yesterday's trading better than today's
[10:54] {dino} me too
[10:54] {Threei}  today is a bit confused
[10:54] {dino} brb
[10:55] {nemo} double tops on spy and iwm
[10:55] {nemo} on the 15 min
[10:55] {Threei}  yesterday they moved in a more obedient manner
[10:55] {dolores} sorry a bit lost
[10:55] {dolores} asre we in LVS short?
[10:55] {Threei}  no
[10:55] {dolores} ok
[10:56] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[10:56] {Threei}  If holds  .20 
[10:57] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:58] {Threei}  if loses 35, there is no support till about .65
[10:58] {nemo} sbux bounce by .20
[10:59] {nemo} spy coming into pivot iwm .10 from WR1
[10:59] {nemo} expeting bounce
[11:00] {dolores} missed it too fast
[11:00] {dolores} 35.08 did not fill
[11:01] {nemo} tna over .20 here
[11:01] {nemo} lotta red though around
[11:01] {nemo} change to .15
[11:03] {nemo} o.k. .ooking for .96 area iwm which is around here for tna
[11:04] {nemo} long .06
[11:04] {nemo} stop under low
[11:04] {nemo} vwap run
[11:04] {dolores} stop FCX .21?
[11:04] {nemo} offering .19
[11:05] {Threei}  yes, for now
[11:05] {nemo} then looking for .40ish
[11:05] {Threei}  looking to trail it
[11:07] {Threei}  let's trail to .16
[11:08] {Threei}  break of .15 is likely trend change, so no point in hanging around
[11:09] {Threei}  so far so good - volume dried up on bounce and increased again on a drop
[11:10] {Threei}  little SPY cooperation wouldn't hurt
[11:12] {Threei}  where is Merkel when you need her?
[11:12] {Will49} :)
[11:13] {nemo} having her upper lip bleached
[11:13] {nemo} mmmhhhh....not sure where that came from
[11:13] {RonS} ooof
[11:13] {nemo} new iwm entry break of .30 stop under .20...imHo
[11:13] {Threei}  FCX downticks as SPY goes higher... come on SPY, little reversal and we are golden
[11:14] {Threei}  grr
[11:14] {nemo} partialing at .39
[11:14] {dino} armh sm l .10
[11:14] {nemo} still have half original too
[11:15] {nemo} stop under .30
[11:17] {nemo} vrx looks weak
[11:20] {Threei}  (CA) Fitch affirms Canada ratings at AAA, outlook stable- The 2012 budget bolsters the country's fiscal position as it delivered on previous commitments to rein in expenditure and withdraw the stimuli in a timely manner. An early commitment to balance the budget over the medium term placed Canada's fiscal credibility ahead of many peers.
[11:20] {Threei}  - The main risk to the economy is the high level of household debt. Excessive borrowing by individuals is, to a great extent, a by-product of low interest rates, a legacy of the monetary response to the financial crisis.
[11:21] {Will49} too early to gloat
[11:21] {Threei}  yeah
[11:22] {Threei}  Canada is not immune to worldwide turmoil
[11:22] {Will49} only in our minds
[11:23] {Threei}  but you have to give it to Harper... steering it this far with such stability required a lot of cold blood vs enmotional "let's stimulate this and that"
[11:23] {Will49} he sure has cold blood
[11:23] {Threei}  good
[11:23] {Will49} and an economist to boot
[11:23] {Threei}  that's what I want from country leader - I am not about to have him for Christmas dinner anyway
[11:24] {Will49} :D
[11:24] {Threei}  ok FCX
[11:24] {Threei}  time to die
[11:24] {nemo} http://goo.gl/Zpqyv
[11:25] {Threei}  ECB President Draghi is widely expected to offer a fuller picture of his plans at the post-rate decision press conference tomorrow morning. Accompanying the various reports about the ECB program were rumors that global central banks were preparing coordinated intervention to accompany Draghi's big day, although there was little substance to the talk.
[11:26] {Will49} little substance to anything over there
[11:26] {Threei}  The ECB was said to be planning unlimited sterilized bond purchases
[11:26] {Threei}  huh?
[11:26] {Threei}  if they are sterilized, they can't be unlimited
[11:26] {nemo} lnkd
[11:27] {Will49} let's sterilize Graghi
[11:27] {Threei}  unbelieavble... now they just string words together
[11:30] {Threei}  oh well... FCX finally gave up
[11:31] {goryl} vad, what type of order do you use to exist ur position in laser? Market?
[11:31] {dolores} just because of the spy
[11:31] {goryl} on a stop..
[11:31] {dolores} it should be much higher even if following the market
[11:32] {goryl} sorry:) how do you place ur stop order in laser? market?
[11:32] {dino} limit
[11:32] {Threei}  just manual execution, same way as entry, a little farther from the trigger
[11:33] {Threei}  too bad, this one was really promising
[11:33] {goryl} so in this case, did you wait for .16 prints to come through and then hit Market Buy?
[11:33] {nemo} mnst probably a good short here
[11:37] {goryl} I enter positions with a limit orders but i'm not sure yet how to exit on stops
[11:37] {Threei}  yes in waiting for .16 prints, no in "market" part
[11:37] {Threei}  limit buy .18
[11:38] {goryl} ok, thanks
[11:39] {dino} goryl, for my stops i use limits. i want to get out when i can not when i have to
[11:40] {nemo} yeah, it's kinda' like marriage goryl
[11:40] {Threei}  lol... Smaghi is an Italian economist with a French education and presently occupying a position in Harvard. So, those are the necessary components for being totally removed from reality
[11:40] {goryl} ok. So if .16 prints come out then you hit ur limit order for .18?  What if it somehow doesn't fill you anywhere between .16-.18 and jumps over?
[11:41] {goryl} :) u got that right nemo
[11:41] {nemo} personally I lucked out in that department
[11:41] {Threei}  on thick stocks it's rare that 3 cents is not enough,
[11:41] {nemo} they all sobered up before I could get them down the aisle
[11:41] {Threei}  and if some part of it remaikns unfilled, I watch what happens next:
[11:42] {Threei}  when they mov e too fast, they usualky come back right away,
[11:42] {Threei}  if not, well, I get out with bigger limit,
[11:42] {Threei}  which is still better than if you hit whole thing with market order,
[11:42] {Threei}  almost a license to steal
[11:43] {goryl} ok.  So you don't use hard stops?
[11:45] {Threei}  no
[11:47] {goryl} guys, is there a software out there that can record my computer screen.  I can go over and watch the first hour of trading later at work and analyze my mistakes?
[11:47] {Beau} when you say print, you mean offer not sell?
[11:47] {nemo} camtasia
[11:47] {Threei}  print is actual trade
[11:47] {Threei}  on T&S
[11:47] {nemo} better have a powerful computer though
[11:48] {Threei}  camtasia is not free though
[11:48] {Threei}  there is some free recording software
[11:48] {Threei}  almost as good
[11:48] {nemo} not free?  cough cough
[11:49] {Threei}  http://camstudio.org/
[11:49] {goryl} ok, awesome. Thanks.
[11:57] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[12:01] {Threei}  If holds  .60 
[12:03] {dolores} Braking highs
[12:03] {dolores} LNKD
[12:06] {goryl} is lvs based on c&h failure?
[12:07] {Threei}  just consolidation at the support level, with break as a trigger
[12:07] {goryl} ty
[12:09] {dptl} can we trail to .56 now lvs?
[12:09] {Threei}  you didn't cover any near 1:1?
[12:09] {Threei}  of course trail
[12:09] {dptl} no
[12:13] {Threei}  1:1
[12:13] {Threei}  to .51 now
[12:16] {nemo} dolores, what is your native language?
[12:16] {Threei}  National Daily Tracking: Romney: 48%, Obama: 45%
[12:16] {dolores} spanish nemo
[12:16] {dolores} breaking
[12:17] {dolores} it is my tyoing usually
[12:17] {dolores} typing
[12:17] {nemo} cool
[12:17] {nemo} at least you have an excuse
[12:17] {dolores} ja ja
[12:17] {dolores} I lost a lot of my grammar in english
[12:17] {dolores} at scholl was very good
[12:17] {nemo} I never found it in the first place
[12:17] {Threei}  me too...
[12:18] {nemo} and Vad...
[12:18] {dolores}  later and age lost it
[12:18] {nemo} actually, for someone who didn't speak English until 15 years ago, he does extremely well with the written word
[12:18] {dolores} I can read english as  well as spanish
[12:18] {dolores} but writing lost  a lot
[12:18] {nemo} omphalosskepsis
[12:19] {nemo} writing is  tough in a second language
[12:19] {Threei}  thanks nemo
[12:19] {dolores} what's that ?
[12:19] {nemo} contemplation of the navel
[12:19] {dolores} sounds elephant disease
[12:19] {nemo} meditating about your belly button
[12:19] {dolores} ok
[12:19] {nemo} Greek derivation
[12:19] {Threei}  I also enjoy the privilege or tormenting with dangling prepositions
[12:19] {nemo} pisdah
[12:20] {Threei}  I meant "tormenting you dangling prepositions with"
[12:20] {dolores} LVS goign nuts'
[12:20] {dolores} VOLUME SPIKE
[12:20] {nemo} svena
[12:21] {dolores} maybe they decided for Madrid
[12:21] {Threei}  (PT) Portugal opposition: Budget deficit goal likely will not be met, more time is necessary regarding bailout targets***Reminder: On Sept 3rd, Portugal Parliament Commission stated that more austerity measures would be needed for the nation to meet its targets, noting that budget execution was better than a year ago but would not be sufficient to guarantee the 2012 targets could be met.
[12:21] {nemo} mnst coming to short territory
[12:24] {dolores} out LVS
[12:25] {dolores} was I too soon .51?
[12:27] {Threei}  no
[12:27] {Threei}  trade is over, either by scalp or by partial an trail
[12:28] {dolores} you went out in this second move or the one before?
[12:28] {dolores} I saw .51 and covered
[12:28] {Threei}  second
[12:28] {dolores} ok
[12:31] {dptl} clf .20 short?
[12:32] {Threei}  not sure
[12:32] {Threei}  50/50
[12:33] {dptl} k
[12:43] {RonS} oops:  Pacific Tsunami Warning Center says tsunami watch for Caribbean canceled; message was meant for Pacific - 
[12:43] {Threei}  lol
[12:44] {robbers} Meanwhile, all the people in the Caribbean put on their water wings.
[12:45] {Will49} :)
[13:03] {dolores} nice recovery GS
[13:03] {dolores} breaking day highs
[13:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAS  .30 break
[13:22] {Threei}  If holds  .20 
[13:23] {Threei}  change to .25 break
[13:23] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
[13:25] {Threei}  target 1:3
[13:30] {Threei}  no worky
[13:31] {Threei}  Swing State Tracking: Romney: 47%, Obama: 44%
[13:32] {thomcbell} obama landslide 
[13:32] {Threei}  if convention doesn't change that, it looks to becone a ssutainable trend
[13:33] {Threei}  no news for this SPY drop
[13:38] {Threei}  strting to get a feeling drop into eod
[13:39] {dino} feels that way
[13:43] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .05 break
[13:43] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[13:43] {Threei}  ridiculously tight stop
[13:44] {Threei}  target .85
[13:45] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[13:45] {Threei}  If holds  .20 
[13:46] {Threei}  I don't think SPY is going to hold the low
[13:47] {Threei}  a little bopunce, maybe, but should lose it and, umm... what's the word nemo likes
[13:47] {Threei}  "cascade"
06[13:48] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a model of Niagara Falls
[13:49] {Will49} good one vad
[13:49] {Will49} the slap i mean
[13:49] {Threei}  he is asleep
[13:49] {Threei}  so slap away freely
[13:50] {Threei}  frau Merkel... can we have a word from you please? about no bond buying? ever?
[13:51] {Will49} the word is "nein"
[13:52] {Threei}  I'll settle for firm "
[13:52] {Threei}  nyet"
[13:53] {dptl} in fcx
[13:53] {dptl} in gld
[13:55] {Will49} you're my hero...watching two stocks at once
[13:56] {Threei}  frikin SPY
[13:56] {Threei}  I don't like today
[13:56] {dino} makes two of us
[13:56] {Will49} tell me about it...my first day using real money, and I'm not happy
[13:57] {dino} fran sm l .01
[13:57] {Will49} but I'm persistant
[13:57] {Threei}  I guess market is holding its breath before tomorrow's Draghi performance
[13:58] {Will49} it'll be "draggy" for sure
[13:58] {Threei}  why didn't you start yesterday when we had a blast
[13:58] {Will49} account wasn't set up
[14:00] {Will49} cc_8 slept in:)
[14:08] {scottie} OK gotta go, see you all tomorrow
[14:08] {Threei}  take care scottie
[14:08] {Threei}  I still hope to squeeze something out of today
[14:13] {Threei}  what do you know... it may still work
[14:14] {Threei}  cover half GLD here
[14:14] {Threei}  stop to .06
[14:15] {goryl} see you tomorrow everyone
[14:15] {Threei}  take care goryl
[14:20] {nemo} iwm coming into vwap and downtrend
[14:23] {nemo} mnst long .66
[14:23] {nemo} stop under .59
[14:23] {Threei}  (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Comfortable that the ECB will maintain price stability and not finance individual countries - interview
[14:23] {Threei}  really?
[14:23] {Threei}  ECB expressed intention to do just that
[14:24] {nemo} actually, could be short if it drops it
[14:27] {dptl} stopped fcx
[14:28] {nemo} jeez...stopped mnst in it's tracks
[14:28] {dptl} just getting killed today all day...bad day
[14:28] {Will49} me too DP
[14:29] {Threei}  le't not exaggerate
[14:29] {Threei}  getting killed all day? thaere were quite a few winning ines
[14:29] {Threei}  ones
[14:29] {dino} thought you went 3/3 at open
[14:29] {Threei}  yes
[14:30] {Threei}  and couple wins after that
[14:30] {Threei}  with 4 stops I think
[14:30] {dino} 3/7 here w/2 still open
[14:30] {dino} -4 on day
[14:30] {dptl}  no, i am well worse than that :)
[14:31] {dino} you pushing?
[14:34] {RonS} open gone pulp since 10k sept 45 calls purchased in on block
[14:46] {dino} out fran .44, +.43. puts me in the black
[14:46] {dolores} CLF any trade?
[14:47] {Threei}  long
[14:47] {Threei}  looking for a trigger
[14:47] {Threei}  .80 break
[14:48] {dolores} thought would be short
[14:48] {Threei}  stop under .75 for scalpers, .70 day traders
[14:48] {dolores} ok
[15:09] {dino} fran l .00
[15:20] {dino} vhc spike
[15:20] {Threei}  I know it's redundant, repetitive and tautological but I dislike today's trading
[15:21] {dino} kind of aimless
[15:23] {Threei}  yeah, listless drifitng up and down wth no drive
[15:27] {nemo} looks like big gap up tomorrow...GS is pinned near the top of his range...Draghi has his press release at 7:30 am I think
[15:27] {dino} vhc s .23
[15:27] {dino} cov vhc .99, +.25
[15:27] {dolores} you mean 28
[15:28] {dino} ?
[15:28] {dolores} sorry did not see the dot
[15:28] {dino} fran stop -.15
[15:29] {dino} ok, calling it a day, thx all
[15:29] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:30] {dino} u2, thx
[15:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .80 break
[15:32] {Threei}  last try for today
[15:32] {Threei}  If holds  .70 
[15:32] {thomcbell} long setup bhp 63.62 break if holding 0.49
[15:33] {dolores} ok guys see you tomorrow
[15:33] {dolores} thxs VAD
[15:33] {Threei}  take care dolores
[15:33] {Threei}  if works, should make the day from flat to slightly positive
[15:33] {Threei}  if not, will cement slightly negative
[15:33] {thomcbell} target 1:3
[15:44] {thomcbell} flattened out bhp at 63.59 
[15:52] {thomcbell} take care all 
[15:53] {Will49} tks Vad...tomorrow's another new day:)
[15:53] {Threei}  always is
[15:53] {Threei}  take care tbell
[15:53] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
[15:53] {Threei}  have a good evening
[15:53] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:54] {dptl} gn all



Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Sep 4 2012


Nice start to the September with many trades working smoothly and for nice gains. Midday doldrums were still here but activity slowly returns.

Session Time: Tue Sep 04 00:00:00 2012
[07:53] {nemo} Die Jedi Scum!
[08:44] {goryl} gm all
[08:46] {Threei}  morning nemo, goryl
[08:47] {nemo} not funny
[08:47] {Threei}  what's your beef with Jedi this morning?
[08:49] {Threei}  (GR) EU/IMF/ECB troika suggests Greece expanding work week to 6 days from 5 - financial press
[08:49] {Threei}  - Also suggests reducing the minimum rest between shifts to 11 hours
[08:50] {goryl} first day of school for me:) unfortunately my demo laser expired this morning
[08:52] {nemo} so, the why are you here?
[08:53] {Threei}  lol... nemo is polite and considerate as always
[08:53] {Threei}  maybe he wanted to meet you?
[08:54] {nemo} I'm just asking the question, actually not implying anything...you're are just inferring
[08:54] {nemo} He could follow Freestockcharts.com real time, It's not perfect, but would give him an approximation of your calls
[08:55] {Threei}  pretty much, as temporary measure
[08:55] {goryl} thanks, i'll do that.  Meanwhile, i'm waiting for the login info
[08:55] {Threei}  demo has an advantage of having an imitator of execution, so it allows also practicing
[08:56] {nemo} Yes, why should he waste your trial...it would be more like watching a teletype of a baseball game...well, in our case, the inanity of an insane asylum...but you get my drift
[08:56] {nemo} Unfortunately, I don't think LASER uses real time data, I think it uses looped data
[08:56] {Threei}  huh?
[08:56] {Threei}  it's real time
[08:56] {nemo} it wasn't a few years ago
[08:57] {Threei}  always was, as long as I use it
[08:57] {nemo} Put the bottle down Vad!
[08:57] {Threei}  cohntless people demoed it, it was a real time always
[08:57] {nemo} o.k. gotta' get my yogurt
[08:58] {nemo} frickin' bunny was trying to get me out of bed at 5 this morning...sheesh
[09:05] {dino} gm
[09:05] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:06] {RonS} hi everyone
[09:07] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:07] {jackharry} good morning
[09:08] {Threei}  jack :)
[09:10] {scottie} gm
[09:10] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:16] {Beau} good morning all
[09:17] {nemo} I swear, you people do this on purpose
[09:17] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:17] {Threei}  of course we do
[09:17] {Threei}  did we ever hide it?
[09:18] {ese} gm
[09:18] {Will49} gm
[09:18] {ese} will
[09:19] {Threei}  ese, will :)
[09:19] {ese} back to school today for me
[09:20] {dolores} hello guys GM
[09:21] {nemo} damn...have to behave
[09:21] {Threei}  dolores :)
[09:21] {dptl} gm
[09:21] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:22] {Threei}  catch from this weekend: http://goo.gl/nZDQs
[09:23] {nemo} bad moon rising
[09:23] {Threei}  everyone got the sunday links?
[09:23] {scottie} yes
[09:24] {Will49} no
[09:24] {Beau} not here
[09:24] {robbers} Nope.
[09:24] {jackharry} no
[09:24] {Threei}  what the deuce
[09:25] {Threei}  checked junk box?
[09:25] {dino} yes
[09:25] {Threei}  to make sure your ISP doesn't filter it out?
[09:25] {ese} i did catch that moon bad.........was terrific...........my band was playing at a house party in oak bay on the water sat night basically underneath the moon
[09:25] {scottie} sorry, doublechecked and I didn't receive it, I looked at your comments from the log
[09:25] {dolores} not this sunday
[09:25] {ese} vad
[09:25] {Beau} yes.  got 8/25 ok
[09:25] {dolores} I got two until now
[09:25] {dolores} tehsunday beofre last yes
[09:26] {Threei}  I don't know how to explain this... there is no pattern, some get to recipients and some are not
[09:26] {Threei}  make sure to check the log over the weekend if you don;t get e-mail
[09:26] {nemo} through what program are you mailing them out?
[09:27] {Threei}  week wrap-up is posted on Fri, Last Next Week by nemo - when he sobers up
[09:27] {Threei}  smember
[09:27] {Threei}  amember
[09:27] {nemo} Some programs have problems with mass mailings...some ISPs too
[09:27] {Threei}  also, last one contained this review of Ben's speech: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/08/ben-bernanke-jackson-hole
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .25 break hl
[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .15
[09:31] {Threei}  two-sided'
[09:32] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:32] {Threei}  1:1
[09:32] {Threei}  stop to .17
[09:33] {scottie} couldn't get in at .14
[09:33] {Threei}  no, .13 was it
[09:33] {dolores} there is something wrong with my quotes it was at 36.07
[09:33] {dolores} now n36.11
[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .70 break
[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:33] {Threei}  ugh... no chance
[09:34] {Threei}  teleported to 1:1
[09:34] {dolores} so FB is off?
[09:34] {dolores} sorry FCX
[09:34] {Threei}  ?
[09:34] {Threei}  oh
[09:34] {Threei}  second half stopped
[09:34] {dolores} ok
[09:36] {Threei}  let's see if SLW gives us double bottom
[09:36] {dolores} SLW in?
[09:36] {Threei}  no, fill was impossible
[09:37] {dolores} ok
[09:37] {Threei}  ran away
[09:37] {dolores} CATnice  pullback
[09:38] {Threei}  CAT ,looks breakdownish to me
[09:38] {dolores} ok
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: CLF  .20 break
[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:39] {dino} nflx
[09:39] {nemo} yeah, dead
[09:40] {cipher} nflx +.38 thx dino
[09:40] {cipher} short that is
[09:40] {Threei}  frikin FCX
[09:40] {Threei}  rinsed second hal
[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .70 break
[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:42] {Threei}  (IT) Italy PM Monti: Shares nearly identical view with France - press conference with France's Hollande
[09:42] {Threei}  good for them... new drinking buddies
[09:42] {ese} L rovi .84
[09:43] {Threei}  CLF target 1:3 if you got it
[09:43] {dolores} missed CLF too fast
[09:43] {Threei}  1:1
[09:43] {Threei}  1:2
[09:43] {Threei}  Invalidated  SLW
[09:44] {Threei}  - Shares France's hope for non-inflationary economic growth
[09:44] {Threei}  that's their strategy... hope
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .15 break
[09:44] {nemo} if cat gonna' bounce next .10
[09:45] {ese} out rovi 07 +.23
[09:45] {Threei}  change to .10
[09:45] {Threei}  If holds  42
[09:45] {Threei}  hl
[09:46] {Threei}  - EU needs to recognize that nations that have met their oblications should get help in dealing with excessive bond spreads.
[09:46] {Threei}  because they are entitled to it, you see
[09:47] {Threei}  National Daily Tracking: Romney: 47%, Obama: 45%
[09:47] {Threei}  1:1 LVS
[09:48] {Threei}  Republican Voters Love Eastwood, Democrats Not So Much
[09:48] {Threei}  big surprise there
[09:49] {ese} man that was a bizarre monologue he did at that convention
[09:50] {ese} vrx...everready battery
[09:51] {ese} keeps on ticking
[09:53] {ese} must be september.......scanners join nuts
[09:53] {ese} goin
[09:53] {dino} praa spike
[09:53] {Threei}  some life returns, yes
[09:54] {Threei}  it's a process
[09:54] {Threei}  CLF 1:3 target hit
[09:56] {Threei}  LVS 1:2, out
[09:56] {RonS} swi spike
[09:56] {ese} good one
[09:56] {ese} am watching the sei spike as well
[09:56] {ese} swi
[09:56] {ese} damn typing this morning
[09:57] {dino} ditto
[09:58] {dino} praa sm s ave .49
[09:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .95 break
[10:00] {ese} oh oh
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) AUG ISM MANUFACTURING: 49.6V 50.0E; ISM PRICES PAID: V 46.0E
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) JULY CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: -0.9% V 0.4%E
[10:00] {dino} mkt drop
[10:00] {Threei}  how's that recovery going
[10:01] {Threei}  Invalidated  FCX
[10:01] {Threei}  "obviously"
[10:01] {ese} like i said oh oh
[10:01] {nemo} as I said
[10:01] {nemo} "like" is a comparison
[10:01] {dino} cov praa ave .93, +.56
[10:01] {Threei}  nope... like is a button
[10:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break
[10:02] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[10:02] {Threei}  very tight
[10:03] {Threei}  target .95
[10:03] {ese} looks like mrkt has already priced in the bad news
[10:04] {ese} pretty calm little drop there
[10:04] {Threei}  rather, continues operating under the mantra "the worse the better" ese
[10:04] {dino} yes qe3 hopes
[10:05] {Threei}  the worsze economy is, the likelier QE3 is
[10:05] {Threei}  half out
[10:05] {Threei}  FCX
[10:05] {Threei}  lunacy continues...
[10:05] {nemo} da komrade
[10:06] {Threei}  recovery based on artificial support by money printing or debt is an illusion of recovery
[10:06] {Threei}  it digs deeper hole and it crowds out private money
[10:07] {Threei}  but idiots know no objective laws, they think economy will do whatever they want
[10:07] {Threei}  second half FCX .79 stop
[10:09] {dino} vrx sm s .85
[10:11] {dino} clf sm l .40
[10:13] {dino} vrx cov flat, thing hags well
[10:13] {dino} hangs
[10:13] {nemo} lotta' volume cat
[10:23] {nemo} two way cat
[10:26] {Threei}  can't tell which way this SPY stall will resolve
[10:27] {nemo} think tna long over .65 aggressive over .60, watch this .55 bid
[10:28] {dino} swi sm s .97
[10:28] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .75 break
[10:28] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:28] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:29] {dolores} CLF trying to hold
[10:29] {nemo} invaliddated
[10:31] {Threei}  wow... that's a lot of weakness in the market
[10:32] {dino} cov swi .57, +.40
[10:32] {nemo} close enough for government work on SPY WS1
[10:32] {dino} must be more volume, feels faster
[10:33] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Asmussen: ECB President Draghi will be able to comment on new ECB bond buying program at the next ECB rate decision on Sept 6th- Must ensure that ECB moves do not lessen pressure on governments to reform.
[10:33] {dino} vrx sm s .99
[10:33] {Threei}  so, here are three important dates
[10:34] {Threei}  Sept 6, Draghi will hnave to give some details on his threat to buy every bond within solat system
[10:34] {dino} cov vrx .67, +.32
[10:35] {Threei}  Sept 12, German court demonstrates how they can make unconstitutional steps seem legit
[10:35] {nemo} yep
[10:35] {dino} vrx=pulp
[10:35] {Threei}  and Sept 13, Ben opens his mouth re: delivering money by helicoptre, freighter or merely a bus
[10:36] {ese} lol
[10:36] {nemo} l tna .32
[10:37] {nemo} think we db'd on spy
[10:37] {nemo} partialing .57
[10:37] {nemo} stop .35
[10:37] {nemo} yeah, that level was close enough for govermentw work...hard read today though
[10:39] {nemo} futures look terrible
[10:39] {nemo} looking for VWAP run...iwm vwap is also daily pivot
[10:39] {ese} abject indecision will do that to ya
[10:40] {nemo} futures are holding this up, think we're having a distribution day
[10:40] {dino} shld sm l .51
[10:40] {nemo} Eddie thanks u
[10:40] {nemo} oohhh nice setup dino
[10:40] {dino} swi new hod
[10:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  83 break hl
[10:41] {nemo} wow, not used to seein shld trade that tightly, that's weird
[10:41] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:41] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:42] {nemo} stop .35 ish
[10:43] {nemo} nflx in short territory, here then 56.25 area
[10:46] {thomcbell} long setup etn 43.10 break if holding 43.06
[10:47] {Threei}  no worky
[10:47] {ese} poetic justice facebook into the 17 teens..........that goof is going to have to resign........public company now buddy........accounability
[10:48] {dino} too bad for all the ipo suckers tho, what a scam
[10:49] {dino} out shld .72, +.21, mkt droppong
[10:49] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .60 break
[10:49] {dino} my typing sucks today
[10:49] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:50] {Threei}  "today"? you are lucky
[10:50] {thomcbell} etn
[10:50] {thomcbell} etn
[10:50] {dino} yeah, guess it sicks pretty much everyday
[10:50] {Threei}  mine sucks every day of the week excpet Sunday
[10:51] {nemo} lvs two way
[10:51] {nemo} when you don't type
[10:51] {Threei}  korreqt
[10:51] {Threei}  dunno, I am not delighted by LVS long
[10:52] {Threei}  maybe after one more pullback
[10:52] {thomcbell} target on etn is 1:2
[10:52] {nemo} see which way it goes off that volume spike
[10:52] {dino} etn sm l .15, gap filled
[10:53] {nemo} lvs forming a mini range vwap around .99
[10:54] {nemo} cat
[10:54] {nemo} short?
[10:55] {Threei}  .80 breeak
[10:55] {Threei}  yeah, half lot
[10:56] {Threei}  LVS is valid
[10:57] {thomcbell} etn 1:1
[10:57] {Threei}  CAT 1:1
[10:59] {ese} catch you all later.....first day of school
[10:59] {Threei}  behave ese
[10:59] {thomcbell} etn 1:2
[11:00] {Threei}  wtg tbell
[11:00] {dino} gj tbell
[11:00] {thomcbell} thank u sensei
[11:00] {goryl} Vad, lvs and cat setups were all dbi?
[11:00] {Threei}  korreqt goryl
[11:00] {Threei}  good call
[11:02] {dino} swi spike
[11:03] {goryl} lvs
[11:03] {goryl} sorry
[11:04] {cipher} SWI short +18 thx dino
[11:04] {dino} out etn .37, +.22. ty tnell
[11:05] {dino} tbell
[11:05] {dino} gj cipher
[11:06] {nemo} ctsh
[11:07] {dino} back in 10 min'
[11:07] {cipher} ibm l.16
[11:09] {Threei}  KVS 1:1
[11:09] {nemo} could argue mos long break .05
[11:09] {Threei}  LVS too
[11:09] {nemo} o.k. let's argue
[11:09] {nemo} this is a weird day though
[11:09] {RonS} took etn .15 to .38 +.23  thanks guys
[11:10] {nemo} indexes dropping again
[11:10] {nemo} FSLR doing better than FB
[11:12] {cipher} aapl l .00
[11:13] {cipher} out 1/2 .50
[11:14] {scottie} LVS .48 +.10 thanks Vad
[11:14] {cipher} out in full .75
[11:14] {Threei}  :)
[11:16] {dino} gj
[11:17] {dino} nemo, at least indexes are moving
[11:19] {dino} bnny spike
[11:20] {nemo} we should go now
[11:23] {RonS} moody blues?
[11:23] {nemo} tuesday
[11:24] {nemo} is it still August?
[11:24] {nemo} real volume next week
[11:27] {Threei}  we have more activity already
[11:28] {nemo} 3 min chart spy iwm look weak bonds weak financials picking up though
[11:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  37 break
[11:35] {nemo} i'd say spxu worth a shot here
[11:37] {thomcbell} darn etn
[11:37] {thomcbell} thought 43.80 had a chance
[11:40] {thomcbell} not doing it but etn short setup 43.72 break if holding 43.82
[11:41] {goryl} Vad, is JPM a bmr or jbe setup? or both?
[11:41] {dolores} FB trying to hold .60
[11:42] {dolores} this a bottom for now?
[11:42] {Threei}  kind of mini-JBE
[11:42] {RonS} bnny hop
[11:43] {nemo} she's so cuuuuute!
[11:43] {Threei}  lol
[11:43] {nemo} sharp frickin' teeth though
[11:43] {Threei}  FB... not much chance it'll hold that .60
[11:43] {dolores} ok thxs
[11:48] {goryl} ok, thanks. It is ok if I ask these q's?  I want to know the logic behind each setup and document it in my trading log.
[11:48] {Threei}  sure
[11:49] {nemo} don't tell him about the chicken sacrifices
[11:49] {Threei}  as long as they are not in first 30 minutes, there is usually enough time to asnwer
[11:50] {goryl} I know it's only my first day of classes here but the morning setups seem more complicated and difficult for me to identify.
[11:50] {Threei}  that's usually the case
[11:50] {nemo} yeah
[11:50] {goryl} Are they based more on Level II rather than DBI, JBE, etc...?
[11:50] {Threei}  they happen faster, and since charts are not fully developed yet, they have less pronounced formations
[11:50] {nemo} Vad reads the open really well
[11:51] {Threei}  also, sometimes a few tests of resistance of support that forn the setup happen within one minute,
[11:51] {Threei}  which while still the same setup, doesn't allow you to see them on 1 min chart
[11:52] {Threei}  it comes with practice
[11:52] {goryl} A lot to digest but hopefully with practice it'll become more transparent.  School of Vad:)
[11:52] {Threei}  ask folks who are trading with us relatively recently, how progress in seeing this kind of things is real nd happens wuthin months
[11:53] {nemo} also, some setups will align better with your nature than others, so you'll more easily recognize them
[11:53] {Threei}  right
[11:53] {nemo} case in point:  my iwm/spy trades
[11:53] {Threei}  then you;ll see some I don't
[11:53] {nemo} I can feel Vad looking at me through the chat like I have two heads
[11:53] {Threei}  you cut one??
[11:53] {nemo} some of Vad's setups, I just look at and go.....wtf???
[11:54] {nemo} they work fine, they just don't register
[11:54] {nemo} Then....
[11:54] {nemo} there's Dino...
[11:54] {nemo} some of the charts he trades, frickin' Rorschach tests
[11:55] {Threei}  and cipher and ron who trade things requiring fresh box of diapers
[11:56] {nemo} yeah
[11:56] {nemo} What's worse, you ask Cipher what he saw, he can't explain it
[11:56] {nemo} That's years of feel
[11:56] {nemo} Looked for can't be seen, listened for, can't be heard
[11:57] {Will49} years of feel....my teenage years
[11:57] {nemo} oh oh
[11:57] {nemo} mmmhhhh...usually I lead us into the gutter
[11:58] {Will49} oops...forget D was watching
[11:59] {Threei}  I think she learned to tune you guys out pretty much by now :)
[11:59] {RonS} berman on a jay feely missed kick:  hear me, see me, feely....sucky...sung to the who's Tommy...
[11:59] {nemo} wow
[11:59] {goryl} thanks guys.  Coming from an engineering background I need to build my intuition skills.
[11:59] {nemo} this has to be an alternative universe
[11:59] {Will49} what are you smkin' on?
[11:59] {Will49} smokin'
[11:59] {Will49} Ron
[12:00] {nemo} well, you need the discipline of engineering, but intuition comes from screen time and more screen time
[12:00] {goryl} yep, i know...
[12:00] {Will49} nemo says 10,000 hours of screen time
[12:00] {Will49} I'll be dead after 1,000
[12:01] {nemo} and interrelationships
[12:01] {dino} shld sm l .51
[12:01] {nemo} keep it up you'll be dead by 500
[12:01] {Will49} :D
[12:01] {Threei}  lol
[12:01] {cipher} I see you taalking about me...
[12:01] {cipher} sorry stepped out to lunch
[12:01] {nemo} positively cipher
[12:01] {Will49} gor..in addition to learning to trade, you have to learn to parry with nemo
[12:01] {cipher} I hope so nemo!
[12:02] {nemo} don't stick your chin out like that dude
[12:06] {goryl} Unfortunately I'll be able to trade only till noon.  So, it'll take me twice as long.  Thanks for all ur wisdom.  See you tomorrow. Gotta go to work for now:)
[12:06] {Threei}  take care goryl
[12:07] {dino} gl goryl
[12:08] {dino} out shld .75, +.24
[12:22] {dino} jbl sm l .00
[12:30] {nemo} mmmhhh bidu over .95?
[12:30] {nemo} nope
[12:31] {dino} srpt drop
[12:32] {dino} sm l .45
[12:33] {dino} out .80, +.35
[12:33] {RonS} gj
[12:34] {dino} ty
[12:36] {Threei}  50% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law, 41% Opposed
[12:46] {nemo} bidu did a little flush and is setting up again
[13:00] {thomcbell} etn stopped 43.82 - if anyone did it
[13:00] {thomcbell} i never took the trade
[13:14] {dino} out jbl .28, +.28
[13:17] {Threei}  allow me to introduce you to a lunatic running an asykum:
[13:17] {Threei}  Fed's Williams backs open-ended QE3, eyes $600 billion
[13:19] {dino} all they need to do is get out of the way and let capitalism work. stop saving the weak
[13:20] {nemo} I go and grab a bite to eat and of course tna sets up and triggers
[13:20] {Threei}  and stop saving the thugs
[13:20] {nemo} but that's cruel Dino
[13:20] {nemo} http://www.bostonherald.com/news/regional/view.bg?articleid=1061157848&pos=breaking
[13:46] {dino} still having these dead afternoons
[13:47] {Threei}  computers, to borrow a line from nemo, have kids too... take to school, get them after...
[14:09] {RonS} how can this guy have any credibility?...Obama to propose action on deficit at #DNC2012, paint Romney plan as an end lacking means
[14:10] {dino} he doesn't
[14:11] {Threei}  depends on who you ask...
[14:17] {dolores} any CLF trade vad?
[14:18] {dolores} earlier was trying to hold against the market
[14:18] {dolores} çand now no t following it
[14:19] {Threei}  hard to tell... nothing conclusove
[14:19] {Threei}  can go either way
[14:21] {dolores} not following others either
[14:29] {nemo} wow, remind me not to go to lunch
[14:30] {nemo} look at iwm vs spy
[14:35] {dino} nemo, you generally find the iwm to lead the s/p?
[14:36] {nemo} no, but you can tell where the risk on/off temperature is by who leads who
[14:36] {Threei}  think when SPY turns back, CLF will be a short
[14:37] {nemo} That morning stuff was hard to read...and it was a big setup for this rip, I was eating and iwm had a perfect setup at 12:20 or so
[14:38] {nemo} I have no weakness anyway on any time frame
[14:38] {nemo} this is r2 dcaily on IWM
[14:38] {dino} nor i. the 07 scanner just flashing green
[14:38] {nemo} and almost WR1 on financials
[14:38] {nemo} Having said that, TLT is at 50SMA and WPP confluence
[14:39] {nemo} if it's gonna' bounce it will be here, if it doesn't....Natucket sleigh ride
[14:40] {nemo} theri is voulme overhang around 82.75 on spy which is also WR2
[14:51] {nemo} Financials may be the leader today, topped at WR1
[15:06] {nemo} LVS
[15:18] {Threei} Short Setup: CLF  .70 break
[15:18] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[15:29] {dptl} valid still?
[15:29] {Threei}  yes
[15:30] {dptl} xm...i am in .69
[15:32] {Threei}  so why are you unhappy?
[15:33] {Threei}  1:1
[15:33] {Threei}  cure reltive strength (or rather weakness in this case) play
[15:33] {Threei}  cute
[15:35] {dptl} i am out thanx
[15:36] {Threei}  :)
[15:39] {Threei}  1:2
[15:39] {Threei}  nice and easy
[15:39] {Threei}  never even tried to bounce
[15:41] {thomcbell} talk tomorrow guys -
[15:42] {Threei}  take care tbell
[15:49] {dolores} ok guys see you tomorrow
[15:49] {dolores} thank you !
[15:49] {Threei}  take care dolores, nice positive day to start Sept
[15:49] {dptl} gn all
[15:53] {dino} gn all thx for ideas
[15:53] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
[15:53] {Threei}  see you tomorrow

Monday, September 3, 2012

Nemo's Findings for 9/2

Monday that was:

   
I went back to the 15th on this so you could see the fibonacci draws. Looking on the far left at the circle, notice the confluence of the 38.2 up leg draw, and the 50% downleg draw.  Notice how those two levels coincide with the Monthly R1, which was also a failure at the 23rd late afternoon swing-high.  Notice the afternoon bottom after Vad's...er...how did he describe it...oh yeah..."cascading"...drop(had to be there). on IWM you had the 23.6 level.




While SPY showed an area confluence of the 61.8 downleg retrace and the swing high from the 23rd.  Again, at the bottom of the Vad-cascade, the confluence of two fib levels, as well as relative price support at 141.30ish.

Is there a conclusion to be drawn other than the multiple confluences in both indexes were a top for the day, which supports the overall confluence methodology? Dunno.  However, I find it interesting the relative exactitude of the price action/confluence level intersection on IWM relative to SPY 

The riskier instrument seemed to be the tell.  Anyway... 

The week that was:


As we can see for the indexes and the financials  it was a relatively rangebound week with, in the vein of "close enough for government work," IWM and FAS closed on the Weekly pivot. 

                    Nah....the markets ain't rigged.

SPY though not on the Weekly pivot had basically oscillated around it all week finishing Friday on VWAP and creating a doji for the daily and a relatively indeterminate doji-ish weekly candle. So, from the charts going forward, it looks like a "definite maybe."  Volume was actually rising the last two days.

We're moving sideways, which is one way to work off an overbought condition.  Imo, we stay above the 138.60 area, no immediate doom.

Bonds, on the other hand, have been on a steady rise   for the last two weeks

The dollar has been on a relatively steady decline since the end of July.  It's coming into fairly strong support area formed by the price action between the middle of January and the middle of May, so it may thrash around a bit in this area.

Of course, the impending decision on September 12th by the  Bundesverfassungsgericht (say that 3 times fast) hangs over Europe, with the Fed meeting the next day.  One could expect there to be significant dollar volatility.  

If the Germans nix the bailout....dollar should spike and the market should sell off. 

I doubt they'll nix the bailout....How would you like to be fingered as the group that puts a dagger in the Eurotopia experiment?   IMO, they cave outright or, marble-mouth their way around shooting it down.  Of course, that means printing ad-infinitum.  

Question in that situation...if they vote thumbs up, meaning printing, does the Euro strengthen out of euphoria causing the $ to weaken and the markets go up?  Or, does the Euro weaken because of all the printing?  Does Benny hop on the bandwagon to print to keep the $ from getting too strong?

Typical relationship is $ up,  Market Down.  $ down, Market UP


Not expecting big moves next week in the indexes because everybody likely won't come back until the second week, and of course, the aforementioned Deutschentscheidung.

Charts are bullish, but I would, as do others I read, expect a flush to shake out the longs after the German decision ....and then resume onward and upwards into the US presidential election.

                                       SPY 153 anybody?


The week that is (New Monthly levels):


Note the shaded boxes below the price action and the one above.  Those are price levels where heavy volume was done.  Going through either one points to more action in that direction.  However, on the downside the 50SMA is rising and waiting.  The IWM has been lagging the SPY a bit, expect this to lead in relative strength or weakness to indicate direction...my bet is up






Note the relative obedience to the drawn trend-line.  I have three trend lines drawn through the upper, lower, and middle price action from the middle of May and the low in June.  The drawn trend line is the median trend-line.  Notice the Weekly Pivot, is only a few cents different from last weeks.










This was the performance of the major World Indexes on Monday while the US was enjoying a long weekend.