Nemo's Findings for 9/2

Monday that was:

   

I went back to the 15th on this so you could see the fibonacci draws. Looking on the far left at the circle, notice the confluence of the 38.2 up leg draw, and the 50% downleg draw.  Notice how those two levels coincide with the Monthly R1, which was also a failure at the 23rd late afternoon swing-high.  Notice the afternoon bottom after Vad's...er...how did he describe it...oh yeah..."cascading"...drop(had to be there). on IWM you had the 23.6 level.

While SPY showed an area confluence of the 61.8 downleg retrace and the swing high from the 23rd.  Again, at the bottom of the Vad-cascade, the confluence of two fib levels, as well as relative price support at 141.30ish.

Is there a conclusion to be drawn other than the multiple confluences in both indexes were a top for the day, which supports the overall confluence methodology? Dunno.  However, I find it interesting the relative exactitude of the price action/confluence level intersection on IWM relative to SPY 

The riskier instrument seemed to be the tell.  Anyway... 

The week that was:

As we can see for the indexes and the financials  it was a relatively rangebound week with, in the vein of "close enough for government work," IWM and FAS closed on the Weekly pivot. 

                    Nah....the markets ain't rigged.

SPY though not on the Weekly pivot had basically oscillated around it all week finishing Friday on VWAP and creating a doji for the daily and a relatively indeterminate doji-ish weekly candle. So, from the charts going forward, it looks like a "definite maybe."  Volume was actually rising the last two days.

We're moving sideways, which is one way to work off an overbought condition.  Imo, we stay above the 138.60 area, no immediate doom.

Bonds, on the other hand, have been on a steady rise   for the last two weeks

The dollar has been on a relatively steady decline since the end of July.  It's coming into fairly strong support area formed by the price action between the middle of January and the middle of May, so it may thrash around a bit in this area.

Of course, the impending decision on September 12th by the  Bundesverfassungsgericht (say that 3 times fast) hangs over Europe, with the Fed meeting the next day.  One could expect there to be significant dollar volatility.  

If the Germans nix the bailout....dollar should spike and the market should sell off. 

I doubt they'll nix the bailout....How would you like to be fingered as the group that puts a dagger in the Eurotopia experiment?   IMO, they cave outright or, marble-mouth their way around shooting it down.  Of course, that means printing ad-infinitum.  

Question in that situation...if they vote thumbs up, meaning printing, does the Euro strengthen out of euphoria causing the $ to weaken and the markets go up?  Or, does the Euro weaken because of all the printing?  Does Benny hop on the bandwagon to print to keep the $ from getting too strong?

Typical relationship is $ up,  Market Down.  $ down, Market UP


Not expecting big moves next week in the indexes because everybody likely won't come back until the second week, and of course, the aforementioned Deutschentscheidung.

Charts are bullish, but I would, as do others I read, expect a flush to shake out the longs after the German decision ....and then resume onward and upwards into the US presidential election.

                                       SPY 153 anybody?


The week that is (New Monthly levels):

Note the shaded boxes below the price action and the one above.  Those are price levels where heavy volume was done.  Going through either one points to more action in that direction.  However, on the downside the 50SMA is rising and waiting.  The IWM has been lagging the SPY a bit, expect this to lead in relative strength or weakness to indicate direction...my bet is up

Note the relative obedience to the drawn trend-line.  I have three trend lines drawn through the upper, lower, and middle price action from the middle of May and the low in June.  The drawn trend line is the median trend-line.  Notice the Weekly Pivot, is only a few cents different from last weeks.

This was the performance of the major World Indexes on Monday while the US was enjoying a long weekend.   

Nemo's Findings week of 10-17-2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

The week that was:

As we can see the expected gap up on Monday basically started at the Monthly Pivot of both the IWM and SPY...(well, close enough for government work) and proceeded to sell off and then recovering the entire range to basically start where we began, bookended by Spain news on one end, and what will be the Greek election on the other.  Gotta' love the symmetry...

As we can see the gentle sloping rise from the bottom: does it imply strength or a bear flag?

Let's look at the 30 minute chart for some inkling as to what the future may present:

The Inverse Head and Shoulders (or is that a cup and handle?) is obvious with a measured move to the 141 area, but rarely do we find such predictability, otherwise, we'd all be billionaires.  (I'll just have to settle for handsome and witty).  So, with a Greek weekend coming, (and we're not talking Bachanalian debauchery at a fraternity house)...oh the pain of memory, as silly optimistic humans, the market may paint it optimistically and gap up.  Being the eternal cynic, (H.L. Mencken was my hero) I lean towards that.  Notice the "volume at price" gap between the monthly pivot point and the 50SMA and WR1-that could be easily traversed.  Should we open above and it holds we can see a strong confluence at the QPP/WR2 which also contains the 27.2 fib extension.

Should it not, and it falls below the MPP, look for a return to the WPP.  Of course, anything can happen, but it is likely that the 200 SMA will provide some supportn not only because of what it is, but because of the left side of the Inverse Head and Shoulders.  Also, notice the exactitude with which price action bottomed at the MS1...so we're likely safe until the 4th of July weekend....mmmhhh, symmetry rears it's ugly head again...will the holiday presage market fireworks as well?  I wonder if the heavy hitters are wondering if they'll be able to summer in the Hamptons.

Looking at IWM:

Same relative chart, although a tad weaker this week then the SPY.  I guess risk-on tempered itself into the weekend election festivities.  The MPP and 50SMA are a bit farther away but could easily be breached.   same resistance and support dynamics as spy.  Same exactitude at the bottom with MS1, with the one variance of both the SPP and YPP in that area.  Anyway...

Here are the remaining charts for next week:

Nemo's Findings 4/30 monthly update

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Here are the new levels for month with yesterday's weeklies:

 

Nemo's Findings for the week of 4/22

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Here's a look back at how the levels matched up with the action this past week:

 notice in the IWM pane how the turquoise colored retracement level is playing a role?  Remember how often I commented as the market was going up how that Fib. retracement series was significant?  Might be worth watching...



Here are the levels for next week:

Here's the original post:

http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/12/multi-time-frame-pivot-analysis.html

Nemo's Findings for the week of 4/15

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Here are the images:

The original post:

http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/09/nemos-findings.html

Nemo's Findings week of 4/8

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html

 Here are the levels for next week:

 Here is a look at the daily on SPY.  Notice how the Yearly R1 was acting as support, well until the jobs report came out on Friday

 Here are the gap areas I've identified on the daily:

 Here's the daily on the IWM:

Here are the gap areas on IWM I see:

 

Here's the original explanation:

http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/12/multi-time-frame-pivot-analysis.html 

Nemo's Findings for 3/24/2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Here are the images for next week:

Here are the links:

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b692f4b6-9d3c-4983-99a0-5969213bd586

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=25409ff7-7eea-4db1-a714-3dfe5d674c8b

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=1ed6edaa-db87-4c60-b40d-ec940c07d86e

Now, somebody said they were having a problem with all the lines on the chart.  Well, I never use it with a setting above a 15 minute chart since we're daytrading off of it.  For instance, this is what I look at all day on one monitor:

The only arbitrary lines on the charts will be green, and those are subjective levels or trend lines.  I put them there for a reason (which, of course, may only be reasonable to me).  You'll notice the green line where IWM's price action bottomed (at daily S2), that line has been there for a while(check the hourly view on IWM if you import the format).  You can remove those or trace the origin back to where they start and see if you can figure out why I have them there.  (If you do figure it out, that means you have an insight into my mind, which is a very dark place, and you should likely seek professional help immediately). 

Now where did I put that lithium?  Oh, the frickin' bunny took it...

Here's the original post that explained the approach:

http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/09/nemos-findings.html

Nemo's Findings for the week of 3/18

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Here are the images:

 

 Here are the links:

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=156a3477-962f-4957-ac17-d6d391d392da

 http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=950a506e-eba4-41d2-96a1-50d36f2c2830

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=5277aa0f-66e7-4756-a589-c745024eb3ed 

Here's the original post explaining the approach:

http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/09/nemos-findings.html