Nemo's Findings week of 10-17-2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

The week that was:

As we can see the expected gap up on Monday basically started at the Monthly Pivot of both the IWM and SPY...(well, close enough for government work) and proceeded to sell off and then recovering the entire range to basically start where we began, bookended by Spain news on one end, and what will be the Greek election on the other.  Gotta' love the symmetry...

As we can see the gentle sloping rise from the bottom: does it imply strength or a bear flag?

Let's look at the 30 minute chart for some inkling as to what the future may present:

The Inverse Head and Shoulders (or is that a cup and handle?) is obvious with a measured move to the 141 area, but rarely do we find such predictability, otherwise, we'd all be billionaires.  (I'll just have to settle for handsome and witty).  So, with a Greek weekend coming, (and we're not talking Bachanalian debauchery at a fraternity house)...oh the pain of memory, as silly optimistic humans, the market may paint it optimistically and gap up.  Being the eternal cynic, (H.L. Mencken was my hero) I lean towards that.  Notice the "volume at price" gap between the monthly pivot point and the 50SMA and WR1-that could be easily traversed.  Should we open above and it holds we can see a strong confluence at the QPP/WR2 which also contains the 27.2 fib extension.

Should it not, and it falls below the MPP, look for a return to the WPP.  Of course, anything can happen, but it is likely that the 200 SMA will provide some supportn not only because of what it is, but because of the left side of the Inverse Head and Shoulders.  Also, notice the exactitude with which price action bottomed at the MS1...so we're likely safe until the 4th of July weekend....mmmhhh, symmetry rears it's ugly head again...will the holiday presage market fireworks as well?  I wonder if the heavy hitters are wondering if they'll be able to summer in the Hamptons.

Looking at IWM:

Same relative chart, although a tad weaker this week then the SPY.  I guess risk-on tempered itself into the weekend election festivities.  The MPP and 50SMA are a bit farther away but could easily be breached.   same resistance and support dynamics as spy.  Same exactitude at the bottom with MS1, with the one variance of both the SPP and YPP in that area.  Anyway...

Here are the remaining charts for next week:

Nemo's midweek findings 6/10 (and a trade)

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

http://youtu.be/IsaWD6FMCIw

I recap how the levels have been playing out this week.  Also, I was asked about a reversal trade I called out today, it's kind of a stock one for me, so it's here. 

 Sorry about the yawn in the audio.  Still getting over being sick.  Frickin' bunny keeps me up all hours.  They're nocturnal.  I didn't know that, until it was too late...

Nemo's Findings Week of June 10th 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html


The week that was in IWM SPY:

• "The broken clock is right twice a day" principle struck this week (o.k., in my case-once) when I said in the video last week that the confluence of levels, on the IWM could serve as support much as a net, and they did.
• Perhaps more interestingly is that both SPY and IWM bottomed at, or within .$.10 of the monthly S1
• Notice SPY maintained the upward trend it began at the bottom, so, "The trend is your friend".  I'm not yet seeing definitive weakness on higher time frame charts
• We are in a short term channel, arguably Inverted Head & Shoulders on both IWM and SPY, the descending 50 day SMA likely first targets.
• Going out on a limb here for Monday:  we gap up massively...

On a more macro note:  It's all Europe all the time. A premise I hold, which is hardly original, is that political solutions are almost NEVER the best operational solution for a given problem.  

Europe faces the decision to either subsume their cultural identities, which have been formed over centuries, to create a monetary/fiscal union where each culture answers to some central authority, or face some type of break up of the Euro.  Whether it's the weaker countries leaving, the stronger countries leaving, or the total dissolution, is up to the powers to be...which brings me back to my premise... 

"But Captain, I think the deck chairs would look better this way..."

Here are the images for next week:

  

Nemo's Findings 6/3/2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Here are the levels for next week (I hope they don't go lower...;-()

Here is a short video:

http://youtu.be/2O3z_0NIDg8