Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Oct 08 2014

One of three winning calls this morning.

(Chart courtesy of a broker)

With a few more nice juicy wins including 1:5 on JCP short after that, gotta qualify this day as the best this week so far.

End result: with 1:3s and 1:4 all over, this is officially the best trading day of the year. 
_______________________________________
Ahead of the Close Market Snapshot
Wed, 08 Oct 2014 15:57 PM EST

US Indices: Cash equity markets are in a broad-based rally mode, with the biggest 1-day advance of the year. The losses of the past 2 days have been erased, as the Fed minutes showed increasing concern with strong USD weighing on growth.

- Dow Jones +1.7%
- S&P500 +1.7%
- Nasdaq +1.9%

The typically defensive Utilities and Healthcare sectors are leading the charge, adding to morning gains after the Fed minutes. Financials were also relatively strong, while Basic Materials are lagging the broader rally.

Fixed-Income: Expectations for the first Fed rate hike are being pushed further out into 2015 following the release of the latest FOMC minutes from the Sept 17th meeting. Minutes showed increasing concern over the strength of the US dollar, shortfall in economic growth and eurozone inflation, as well as slowdown in China/Japan and geopolitical risk in Ukraine/Middle East. Couple participants have also expressed worries over the adverse effect of stronger USD on achieving the 2% inflation target. The short end of the curve has rallied considerably and widened the 2-10 spread, while the long bond is actually down slightly.

- US 2-yr: -5bps at 0.45%
- 10-yr: -2bps at 2.33%; lowest since Aug 28th
- 30-yr: +2bps at 3.07%; first rise in 4 days
- 2-10 spread: +3bps at 1.88%

Energy:
- WTI Nov crude oil $87.50; WTI front-month briefly fell to its lowest levels in about 15 1/2 months below $87, but has pared its gains amid softer USD post Fed minutes. Rising perception of disinflation, slower global growth, and large inventory builds in API and DOE inventories in the past 24 hours have been attributed to continued pressure in the energy space

Metals:
- Spot Gold $1,219/oz; Up just over 1% or $13 following the release of less hawkish Fed minutes
- Spot Silver $17.37/oz; Up about 1.5% or 27c following the release of less hawkish Fed minutes
- Dec Copper $3.02/lb; Briefly fell below $3.00 in early afternoon trade before bouncing to finish at the highs.

Key Earnings at the close:
- Alcoa (AA) just after the close

Looking ahead to Asia:
- Japan Machine Orders 19:50ET
- Australia Employment 20:30ET


TradeTheNews.com


Session Time: Wed Oct 08 00:00:00 2014
[09:19] {jfjf64} mornin
01[09:19] {@Threei}  jf :)
[09:20] {troub} good morning
01[09:20] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -GTAT +24% (momentum from rumors AAPL providing DIP financing that will leave APPL owning GTAT's physical assets)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -CMRX +5.8% (Phase 3 Brincidofovir shows potential survival benefit in adenovirus infection)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -SYMC +5% (rumors company considering splitting into 2 - dividing into security & storage units)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -LGND +2.6% (guidance)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -COST +2.5% (earnings)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -ATEN -10% (guidance)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -ICPT -5.8% (not releasing OCA FLINT study data at AASLD as expected)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  -SAP -3.5% (CFO planning job freeze until 2015 amid business development concerns; Q4 pipeline less than expectations
[09:25] {nemo} look for spy 193 test.  Monthly S1 level is 193.15
[09:25] {ese} gm
01[09:26] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:26] {nemo} So, I found out why our electric rates got jacked so much:  http://goo.gl/KI7deP
[09:27] {nemo} So, I get to pay 37% more a month
[09:28] {RonS} time to go to war on Vermont and annex them...
[09:28] {RonS} an insufferable state anyway...
[09:29] {nemo} Massachusetts is worse, trust me
[09:30] {RonS} noone as sanctimonious as Vermont...
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .30 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:4
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:36] {jfjf64} you go 3i
01[09:36] {@Threei}  so early in the morning, more like crawl
01[09:37] {@Threei}  or go by inertia... you left yesterday just when we started a string of 7 or 8 wins in a row, lol
[09:38] {jfjf64} I saw
01[09:38] {@Threei}  so I might just roll still...
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:3
[09:38] {jfjf64} got little smashed up earlier
01[09:39] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  change to .50 break
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:40] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:43] {dino} xiv sm l .90
[09:43] {ese} frickin computers
[09:43] {nemo} IWM SPY Finnies likely going to pivots
01[09:43] {@Threei}  and scentedf candles... hate those
01[09:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: RIG  .80 break
01[09:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:46] {nemo} that's not at zero yet?
01[09:46] {@Threei}  soon
01[09:46] {@Threei}  oh sorry ese, you referred to dosconnection... I thought we were just airing random grievances
[09:47] {ese} lol
[09:47] {nemo} oh, good it's working..I spoof his IP address using HFT code
01[09:47] {@Threei}  lol
[09:48] {ese} THANKS!!!!!!
[09:48] {nemo} FB again
[09:49] {nemo} you can always move to Moscow
01[09:49] {@Threei}  stop .96
01[09:49] {@Threei}  .86
[09:49] {nemo} short .60 stop .70
[09:50] {nemo} arguably two way
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:52] {nemo} 1:1 FB
[09:52] {dino} xiv stop -.21
[09:53] {nemo} do or die for FB here
[09:53] {nemo} 1:2
[09:53] {nemo} 1:3
01[09:53] {@Threei}  wtg
[09:53] {nemo} if it stays under .45 could test lows
01[09:53] {@Threei}  perfect call, precise and setup is well defined double top
01[09:54] {@Threei}  1:3  RIG
01[09:54] {@Threei}  my a$$ is out
[09:54] {nemo} she's going lower it looks like
[09:54] {jfjf64} spy wants low
[09:55] {nemo} yep
[09:55] {dino} gj vad
[09:55] {jfjf64} only 10 am
[09:55] {jfjf64} whooooo!!
[09:56] {nemo} stop to .45
01[09:56] {@Threei}  let's go home?
[09:56] {jfjf64} or make fun of nemo all day
[09:56] {nemo} jf...do you really want to motivate me to come and find you
[09:57] {jfjf64} lol
[09:57] {nemo} ask Vad about my "friends"
01[09:58] {@Threei}  those with unnaturally long hands?
01[09:59] {@Threei}  wow RIG, had more in it
[09:59] {nemo} well, they have an unnaturally long reach
[09:59] {dino} gwph getting smoked
[10:00] {dino} gwph smr l .33 pulp type
[10:00] {RonS} lol...mary jane stock
[10:01] {RonS} UK cost agency rejects British company GW's cannabis drug
[10:02] {dino} ty
[10:03] {nemo} 193 test
[10:04] {nemo} could bo back to .50 area, but would expect stop hunt below 193 first
[10:05] {nemo} no surprise nothing but red on algo, biggest player red is GOOG
[10:05] {nemo} AIG
[10:05] {nemo} PRU
[10:05] {nemo} all red
[10:08] {nemo} VWAP .40ish
[10:08] {dino} out gwph .43, +.08
[10:08] {dino} .10
[10:08] {dino} damn
[10:08] {nemo} nothing really big is red on algo, this is a weak down move
[10:12] {dino} sndk sm l .33
[10:12] {dino} hclp sm l .53
[10:12] {nemo} red really shutting off
[10:13] {dino} athm sm l .35
[10:13] {dino} .39
[10:17] {dino} out hclp .90, +.37
01[10:20] {@Threei}  gj
[10:23] {dino} hclp sm l .50
[10:23] {nemo} red expanding
[10:24] {nemo} 192.50ish has monthly support and daily S1
[10:24] {nemo} on SPY
[10:24] {dino} hclp stop -.32
[10:25] {dino} hclp sm l .10
[10:27] {dino} sn sm l .40
01[10:28] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .15 break
01[10:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .22
[10:30] {nemo} MNST
[10:30] {nemo} Dino type
[10:38] {dino} whippy day
01[10:41] {@Threei}  FB got away
01[10:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
[10:48] {nemo} market bottoming
01[10:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[10:49] {nemo} I think floor between 192.40-.50
01[10:50] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:53] {nemo} algo still adding in red
01[10:56] {@Threei}  wow FB
[10:56] {nemo} algo getting redder
[10:58] {nemo} red heavy and no real price drop...they're trying to bottom
[10:58] {nemo} .38-.50ish support
01[11:06] {@Threei}  one more pullback, and if holding the low I will be interested in bounce play
[11:07] {nemo} that should be bottom
[11:07] {nemo} would expect a test though
[11:07] {dino} emes wow
[11:09] {ese} whats the story with that one dino
01[11:10] {@Threei}  [GTAT] Apple comments on recent bankruptcy filing at GTAT; was a surprise decision that was designed to preserve jobs at their plant in Arizona - press - Apple notes that it will work with officials to consider the next steps- note: Earlier today tech blogs noted that Apple had withheld the final $139M payment to GTAT for unknown reasons (of total $578M promised contract)
[11:11] {dino} emes sm l .54
01[11:13] {@Threei} Short Setup: JCP  .70 break
01[11:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[11:14] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:15] {@Threei}  1:2
[11:15] {dino} gj
01[11:15] {@Threei}  ty
[11:15] {dino} every bounce gets sold
01[11:15] {@Threei}  will try for 1:5
01[11:16] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:16] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  . 85 break
01[11:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[11:18] {@Threei}  1:1  IWM
[11:19] {nemo} I think economic situation and Ebola risk setting in
[11:19] {nemo} that first US patient died
[11:19] {nemo} airlines cruise lines should all get hit
[11:20] {RonS} don't tell dino...
[11:20] {dino} i heard
01[11:20] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:21] {@Threei}  some days are created for trading
[11:21] {jfjf64} you go 3i
01[11:22] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:22] {@Threei}  out
01[11:22] {@Threei}  idea to wait for pullback and buy double bottom was the safest way to play bounce
01[11:23] {@Threei}  now JCP... die more
01[11:24] {@Threei}  1:4 IWM
[11:25] {jfjf64} boom
01[11:26] {@Threei}  1:4 JCP
01[11:26] {@Threei}  1:5
01[11:26] {@Threei}  I am out
[11:27] {jfjf64} let me buy ya shot of vodka
[11:27] {jfjf64} nice job
01[11:27] {@Threei}  ty
[11:33] {RonS} bot hclp 40.75 ave out 41.45 +.70 full lot thanks dino
[11:33] {dino} ok, took me awhile, but got a nice one, out emes 26, +1.70
[11:35] {RonS} dino, you tracking the /cl with these plays?
[11:37] {dino} ?cl?
[11:38] {RonS} oil futures...
[11:38] {RonS} it is the driver
[11:40] {dino} no was watching uso
[11:41] {RonS} you can do it here:  http://tinyurl.com/nxtpdkc
01[11:41] {@Threei}  in my quotes, CL is Colgate-Palmolive :)
[11:41] {RonS} the USO is a blend of futures contracts and gets screwed up...
[11:41] {RonS} that's why it's /cl
01[11:42] {@Threei}  WTI crude is making fresh 16-month lows this morning after dropping into the $87 handle on deepening concerns about global demand. Last night the weekly API inventory report saw surprising gains in crude and gasoline inventories, with crude seeing its highest weekly build since April. Additionally, analysts suggested that the Saudi Arabia price reductions out last week were aimed at boosting refinery margins in Asia and were not the opening move in an OPEC price war.
01[11:43] {@Threei}  Homeland Security has ordered agents at airports to implement measures to observe everyone coming into the US for potential signs of Ebola infection.
[11:44] {RonS} see if wearing a sign?
01[11:44] {@Threei}  lol
[11:45] {dino} lol
[12:02] {dino} emes sm l .78
[12:13] {dino} out hclp .32, +1.22
[12:15] {RonS} gj
[12:16] {dino} ty
[12:28] {nemo} spy broke trend line
[12:28] {nemo} finnies at trend
01[12:55] {@Threei}  ugh
01[12:55] {@Threei}  thought of shorting HLF, haven't found guts
[12:56] {dino} gota hop, thx all and gl. holding some small longs overnight
[12:56] {nemo} wuss
01[12:57] {@Threei}  take care dino
[12:57] {dino} ty, u2
[12:57] {nemo} Achtung Baby
[12:58] {dino} salute
[12:58] {nemo} Jawohl!
[13:02] {RonS} watched Inglorious Basterds again...Tarentino is a trip...and Brad Pitt looked like he had a blast playing that part...loved the accent "nattzies"
01[13:02] {@Threei}  my least favorite of his movies...
[13:03] {RonS} need to think of it in comic book style...or pulp novel
01[13:06] {@Threei}  that niche is taken by Pulp Fiction and Kill Bill... kind of hard to compete with those two :)
[13:12] {RonS} Rodriguez brothers alter ego to Tarantino and unbelievably more hard core...
[13:14] {RonS} ...what was that movie where Jessica Alba was the stripper and turned into a serpent monster?...blew my mind...
[13:15] {RonS} went from goddam she is hot to wtf?
[13:21] {nemo} that happens to most women over time
01[13:27] {@Threei}  lol
[13:28] {nemo} oh shit FOMC minutes
[13:57] {nemo} iwm last one to pivot
01[14:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  HLF  .60 break
01[14:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[14:02] {@Threei}  (US) MINUTES OF THE SEPT 16-17 FOMC MEETING: SOME MEMBERS FELT A CHANGE IN FORWARD GUIDANCE MAY BRING ABOUT TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS AND COULD BE MISINTERPRETED
01[14:07] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:09] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:09] {nathan} hi all
01[14:09] {@Threei}  hey nathan
01[14:10] {@Threei}  1:3
01[14:10] {@Threei}  1:4
01[14:10] {@Threei}  out
01[14:11] {@Threei}  Oct 8, I officially nominate thee the best trading day of the year
01[15:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[15:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .48
01[15:22] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:23] {@Threei}  1:2
[15:23] {nemo} spy almost through the gap
[15:26] {jfjf64} you go 3i
01[15:27] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:27] {@Threei}  I am telling you..
[15:38] {jfjf64} gotta go great day ty
01[15:38] {@Threei}  :)
01[15:38] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:38] {@Threei}  see you tomorroq
01[15:38] {@Threei}  w

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Oct 07 2014

Somewhat unusual day. Wins and losses, as far as odds are concerned, are not always evenly distributed, they can go in clusters. That's normal but today was somewhat of an aberration as we had two large and very defined clusters. Morning was marked by mostly stops, and in the afternoon we got 8 wins in a row, erasing morning losses and going into profitable territory. End result is what matters but I'd still prefer more smooth curve :) 
_______________________________________________

Ahead of the Close Market Snapshot

US Indices:
- Dow Jones -1.4%
- S&P500 -1.3%
- Nasdaq -1.4%

- "One step forward / two steps back" has been the trend over the past couple weeks. Industrials are leading the decline, followed by healthcare, services, and tech. Utilities are still the safe-haven with marginal gains.

Fixed-Income: Worries about the upcoming earnings season and a steady rise in volatility is shifting investor funds from equities to bonds in a big way. The Vix is near its 2014-highs approaching 17 level, while the 2-10 spread has also narrowed to approach its lowest level of the year. In European periphery, Greece 10-yr is another 21bps on top of the 11bp increase overnight.
- US 2-yr: -3bps at 0.50%
- 10-yr: -7bps at 2.35%;
- 30-yr: -7bps at 3.05%;
- 2-10 spread: -4bps at 1.84%

Energy:
- WTI Nov crude oil down about 20c to $88.74, approaching last week's lows just above $88 level; Short-term Outlook from EIA projecting "household expenditures for natural gas, heating oil, electricity, and propane to decrease this winter heating season compared with last winter, which was 11% colder than the previous 10-year average nationally."

Metals:
- Spot Gold $1,210/oz; Up for 2nd straight day and biggest 2-day increase since June 17-18th.
- Spot Silver $17.17/oz, retreating after testing a 1-week high around $17.60
- Dec Copper $3.03/lb; Flat despite the broad risk-off flow after a brief dip below $3.02 in early trade

Earnings at the close:
- YUM

Looking ahead to Asia:
- Shanghai Composite returns for trade
- Japan Current Account / Trade Balance (19:50ET)
- China HSBC Services PMI (21:45ET)

TradeTheNews.com


Session Time: Tue Oct 07 00:00:00 2014
[09:19] {troub} good morning
[09:19] {cosmo} so far...
01[09:19] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:20] {@Threei}  cosmo channeling nemo
[09:20] {cosmo} hmm
[09:20] {RonS} gm...the horror...
01[09:21] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:21] {cosmo} should i call my life coach?
[09:21] {jfjf64} morning all
01[09:21] {@Threei}  jf :)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  beter fire him
[09:21] {cosmo} her
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ISR +25% (detailed successful use of Cesium-131 in stereotactic implant for inoperable brain cancer)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EFOI +20% (won $7.9M order from the US Navy)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -GSAT +8.5% (statement in response to Kerrisdale Capital presentation)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -CAMP +7% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -SIMO +7% (raised Q3 Rev guidance)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -OXGN +5% (presenting Phase 2 GOG1861 study at the Biennial meeting of the International Gynecological Cancer Society)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -FEYE +5% (launches mobile protection app for AAPL iOS, OS X, Android & MSFT mobile devices)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -CBK -23% (cuts Q3 Rev guidance)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EZPW -17% (cuts Q4 guidance to below prior range)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -SODA -17% (prelim Q3 op income $8.5M)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -TCS -15% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -AGCO -8.3% (guides Q3 EPS $0.60-0.65 v $0.82e; cuts FY14 guidance)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -BBEP -5% (prices 14M shares at $18.64/shr)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -KCAP -4.3% (priced 3M shares of common stock)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -QRE -3.6% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -LVS -3% (negative broker commentary)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  SODA onteresting but spread is rather for dino
01[09:32] {@Threei}  so's LVS
01[09:33] {@Threei}  starts tightening though
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:35] {@Threei}  not ready yet
[09:35] {jfjf64} vxx
01[09:35] {@Threei}  LVS nice recovery
[09:41] {dino} gm
01[09:41] {@Threei}  watching FB for pullback entry
01[09:41] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .20 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  change to .10
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  77
01[09:46] {@Threei}  SPY can't find footing
[09:46] {nemo} between gap @.38 and .48
01[09:47] {@Threei}  a lot of struggle
[09:47] {nemo} alot of bad news
01[09:49] {@Threei}  half out FB
01[09:49] {@Threei}  stop to .04
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:52] {@Threei}  finally... lid is off
01[09:58] {@Threei}  dino, watching SODA?
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) OCT IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 45.2 V 45.1E
01[10:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .65 break hl
01[10:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[10:05] {@Threei}  meh
01[10:07] {@Threei}  rinse... grrr
[10:07] {dino} i will 3i, r.e. sidetracked, have few minutes now
01[10:11] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .40 break
01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:14] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:25] {nemo} no weighty stocks on algo, and barely anything...looks choppy for awhile
01[10:27] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[10:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:29] {@Threei}  grr
[10:33] {nemo} LYB
[10:33] {nemo} oops late
[10:34] {nemo} Seller at 100
01[10:35] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .20 break
01[10:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[10:38] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:44] {RonS} bbby
01[10:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .85 break
01[10:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[10:48] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .70 break
01[10:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:53] {@Threei}  did it touch 1:1 or was that out of bounds print?
01[10:53] {@Threei}  took my eyes off for a sec
[10:55] {nemo} looks like indexes might want to test vwap
01[11:03] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .35 break
01[11:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[11:08] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:11] {dino} .
01[11:13] {@Threei}  valid again
01[11:17] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:19] {dino} gj
01[11:19] {@Threei}  ty... something should start worjking sooner or later :)
01[11:26] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 breeak
01[11:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[11:33] {@Threei}  nah
01[11:36] {@Threei}  or yes
[11:41] {nemo} bounce here to vwap
[11:45] {dino} added some ccl calls
01[12:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .35 break
01[12:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[12:10] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:12] {@Threei}  again
01[12:12] {@Threei}  same setup
[12:15] {nemo} could make an argument for spy short here
[12:16] {nemo} however lunch time, low volume could easily push it back to morning highs
01[12:17] {@Threei}  yeah, up seems to be the way to go
[12:18] {nemo} the spy high is the weekly pivot
[12:18] {nemo} see all those tails last few minutes
01[12:22] {@Threei}  everything just a scalp
01[12:22] {@Threei}  gotta take off whole thing at 1:1
[12:22] {nemo} narrow range day
01[12:24] {@Threei}  hmmm... third time? :)
01[12:32] {@Threei}  another scalp
[12:40] {nemo} ahh, see the short to VWAP came through
01[12:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
01[12:40] {@Threei}  this time should be it
01[12:42] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:44] {nemo} you take it all at 1:1? ;-)
01[12:44] {@Threei}  yeah
01[12:45] {@Threei}  everything is a scalp
01[12:50] {@Threei}  this time I might regret it
01[13:00] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:05] {@Threei}  1:3
01[13:05] {@Threei}  grrr
[13:33] {nathan} hi gents
01[13:33] {@Threei}  hi nathan
01[13:33] {@Threei}  FB death
01[13:33] {@Threei}  watching for another short
01[13:39] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  77 break
01[13:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[13:40] {@Threei}  .10 was the best entry but missed it
01[13:43] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:44] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:47] {@Threei}  closed balance on a trail
01[14:08] {@Threei}  [HLF] Fox News's Gasparino: Herbalife is telling investors that the FTC will not shut down the company, expects some form of disciplinary action - tweet ***Chatter regarding potential FTC action against the company circulated after HLF hired Pamela Jones Harbour as Compliance and Privacy President. Harbour was a former FTC commissioner.
01[14:08] {@Threei}  (US) Texas Health Officials: The Dallas Ebola patient remains in critical condition, continues to receive Chimerix's experimental treatment, Brincidofovir **Note: On Oct 6th, officials said the Dallas Ebola patient was receiving CMRX's drug Brincidofovir
01[14:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[14:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[14:28] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:29] {nathan} wow
01[14:30] {@Threei}  1:2
01[14:30] {@Threei}  day becomes brighter and brighter
[14:33] {dino} gj
01[14:35] {@Threei}  ty
[14:36] {nathan} great trade 3i
[14:36] {nathan} how did u "know" it was ready to explode? what was the clues?
01[14:37] {@Threei}  no clues, didn't "know"
01[14:37] {@Threei}  just a valid setup
01[14:38] {@Threei}  come on nathan, you know how we trade :)
[14:38] {nathan} :-)
[14:38] {nathan} trade waht u c not what u think
[14:38] {nathan} ;-)
01[14:38] {@Threei}  find anyone who claims he "knew" and there were secret clues, and I 'll show you an idiot or a fraud
[14:38] {nathan} hehehehe
[14:39] {nathan} spy looks like 2botton
[14:40] {nathan} time to short vxx?
01[14:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[14:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[14:51] {@Threei}  stop to .84
01[14:51] {@Threei}  1 cent to 1:1
[14:58] {nemo} indexes looking short
[14:59] {nemo} think 194 test coming
[15:06] {nemo} aapl looks like spy
[15:13] {nathan} today's a great example about how to spoil a day because of the greed
[15:13] {nathan} i had a day done to later...
[15:13] {nemo} nah...it's a great day because ese isn't here
[15:13] {nathan} hehehe
[15:14] {nathan} cya tomorrow
[15:14] {nemo} vaya con burro
[15:14] {RonS} ...piece of work...
[15:15] {nemo} de nada
[15:15] {RonS} lol
[15:15] {nemo} might be a puke day
[15:16] {nemo} just realized, I feel remarkably good for a Tuesday
01[15:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .30 break
01[15:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[15:33] {dino} xiv sm l .01
01[15:33] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:39] {@Threei}  last scalp I guess
01[15:39] {@Threei}  or double bottom for another one,...
01[15:41] {@Threei}  tough call
01[15:41] {@Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .20 break
01[15:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[15:44] {@Threei}  half out
01[15:45] {@Threei}  ok, closed on a trail
01[15:46] {@Threei}  good afternoon, erasing morning stops and then some
01[15:46] {@Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:46] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:53] {dino} i think we are negative on markets 10 of last 13 days
[15:54] {@Threei}  yup

Monday, October 6, 2014

Oct 06 2014

Profitable day without any fireworks. Kind of almost like work. Joking around helps, especially since my typing gives countlless reasons for jokes.

Close Market Snapshot
US Indices:
- Dow Jones -0.1%
- S&P500 -0.1%
- Nasdaq -0.4%

- Basic materials (the worst performer of 2014) is the leading sector in today's session, while the year's standout Healthcare is the laggard. ADR of Rio Tinto is up a whopping 9% on chatter of potential bid interest from Glencore, while BHP and Vale are up 1.3% and 2.5% respectively. Newmont is up 1.9% amid strong gains in precious metals, and Alcoa is also up a notable 2.5% ahead of this week's earnings. Brazil ETF (EWZ) is up over 6% following a surprisingly strong showing by pro-business candidate Neves in the first round of elections. HPQ is also a standout with a 5% jump after confirming overnight speculation of a split into two entities. Downside in Healthcare is led primarily by insurers, with WLP and AET down over 2%. Among the sector gainers, CFN and BDX are up 23% and 7% respectively after announcing an acquisition of the former by the latter.

Fixed-Income: Mean reversion / post-NFP profit taking are the theme in US fixed income FX trading in an otherwise quiet Monday. In European periphery, Greece 10-yr yield rose about 11bps and Spain just over 4bps. France 10-yr yield is down 1bps on the heels of decent demand in this morning's bill auction in spite its budgetary turmoil.
- 2-yr: -3bps at 0.53%
- 10-yr: -1bps at 2.42%;
- 30-yr: -1bps at 3.12%;
- 2-10 spread: -2bps at 1.89%

Energy:
- WTI Nov crude oil contract briefly fell back below $89/brl but held last week's support above $88, returning back above $90 into the pit close.

Metals: Notable rebound in base and precious metals, mainly on profit-taking in USD longs. Possibility of further consolidation in the mining industry (Glencore discussing possible joint bid with Chinalco for Rio Tinto as early as next year) also cited.
- Spot Gold $1,207/oz; Biggest single day increase since June 18th, erases post-NFP drop.
- Spot Silver $17.33/oz; Biggest single day increase since June 18th
- Dec Copper $3.035/lb; First rise after 2 consecutive declining sessions.

Earnings at the close:
- TCS

Looking ahead to Asia:
- RBA Policy Decision 23:30ET
- BOJ Policy Decision TBD


TradeTheNews.com


Session Start: Mon Oct 06 03:01:53 2014

[08:56] {dino} gm 3i
01[08:56] {@Threei}  morning dino
01[09:19] {@Threei}  [FB] FB Reportedly working on mobile payments using Messenger app - tech blogs The screenshots and code from the app show a method for adding a credit or debit card to a Facebook
01[09:19] {@Threei}  oh good
[09:20] {ese} morning
01[09:20] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:21] {troub} good morning
01[09:21] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:21] {ese} vad troub
[09:22] {dino} adhd, i'm missing something
[09:24] {jfjf64} mornin
01[09:24] {@Threei}  jf :)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  no idea dino... study report looks good
[09:25] {nemo} How's your depth of book on SPY vad?
01[09:26] {@Threei}  first two levels OK, some gap after that
01[09:26] {@Threei}  3 levels
[09:27] {RonS} gm...adhd...hearing 3 of 4 outlier patients came from one site:  http://www.thestreet.com/story/12902857/1/alcobra-adhd-drug-fails-key-study-except-when-patients-removed-from-analysis.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
01[09:28] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:34] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -DRTX +78% (being acquired by ACT for $23/shr)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -UNIS +65% (signed 15-yr commercial agreement for wearable injectors with SNY)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -CFN +25% (being acquired by BDX for $12.2B or $58/shr)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -PBR +18% (new natgas finding at offshore well in Espirito Santa Basin)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -DGLY +12% (new $600K purchase orders from Mexican federal police)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -EWZ +11% (Brazil loan data & elections results)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -ITUB +11% (Brazil loan data & elections results)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -CMRX +8% (emergency approval for Brincidofovir authorized by FDA for use in patients with Ebola)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -BDX +8% (acquiring CFN)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -HPQ +6% (guided initial FY15 Rev; actively looking for M&A transactions)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -CONN +6% (exploring strategic alternatives)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -TASR +5% (new deal with Dallas police for X26P Smart Weapons)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -VALE +5% (Brazilian data & elections)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -SNSS -70% (Phase 3 trial of Vosaroxin and Cytarabine in Myeloid Leukemia missed primary endpoint)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -ADHD -40% (disclosed top-line results of Phase 3 study of MDX in adult ADHD)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -HRB -8% (updates expected timing of bank transaction for acquisition of BofI Federal Bank)
01[09:34] {@Threei}  -TKMR -7% (low number of new Ebola infections)
01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .90 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:39] {@Threei}  let's tighten to .84 now
01[09:40] {@Threei}  meh
01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .15 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[09:42] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .90 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:49] {dino} lvnta sm l .13
01[09:56] {@Threei} Long Setup:  RIG  .75 break
01[09:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[09:59] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  HPQ  37 break
01[10:04] {@Threei}  hl
01[10:04] {@Threei}  if .90
01[10:05] {@Threei}  1:2  RIG
01[10:06] {@Threei}  meh HPQ
01[10:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
01[10:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[10:17] {@Threei}  just a scalp most likely
01[10:20] {@Threei}  half out
01[10:20] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:23] {dino} adhd l .30
01[10:25] {@Threei}  stop to .84
01[10:38] {@Threei}  RIG nears the gap
01[10:39] {@Threei}  looking for long setup
01[10:40] {@Threei}  jimped...
01[10:40] {@Threei}  i=u
[10:41] {ese} L adhd.40 sm
01[10:43] {@Threei}  ugh... RIG really got away
[10:43] {jfjf64} yup
[10:43] {ese} thats a stock with good fundamentals vad.....have been following it for a very long time....really surprised at the slide
01[10:45] {@Threei}  life is unfair
[10:45] {ese} if adhd gets through .60 dino......it's going for a long way
[10:45] {ese} indeed
[10:47] {RonS} gtat = widowmaker
[10:47] {dino} you had to say that, just died
[10:48] {ese} higher low
01[10:48] {@Threei}  GTAT Halted: circuit breaker after resuming down 90%
01[10:48] {@Threei}  lol
[10:49] {ese} thats the Rusian Sub K19....nuclear sub....true story or something like that
[10:50] {ese} They called it the widow maker
01[10:51] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .45 break
01[10:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
[10:52] {RonS} gtat filed chap 11...ceo said he wants to "strengthen balance sheet"...criminal
01[10:52] {@Threei}  that's one way to do it
[10:53] {RonS} thinkin ceo is cousin of Putin...
01[10:53] {@Threei}  what was the company years ago... announced voluntary delisting and claimed it was great for shareholders
01[10:53] {@Threei}  Invalidated  GLD
01[10:54] {@Threei}  most curious thing to me was, some of the holders discussing it actually managed to agree with it and somehow pretend it was a good thing
01[10:55] {@Threei}  Stokholm syndrom?
[10:55] {nemo} bounce time
01[10:55] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  109 break
01[10:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[10:55] {@Threei}  very tight stop
01[10:58] {@Threei}  come on SPY, really time to recover
01[10:58] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:58] {@Threei}  play by the book
01[10:58] {@Threei}  half out, stop .99
01[10:59] {@Threei}  if this is real bottom, 1:3 easy
[10:59] {jfjf64} hopey
01[10:59] {@Threei}  if not, let's pritect against crash
01[10:59] {@Threei}  i=o
01[10:59] {@Threei}  monday typing
01[10:59] {@Threei}  (which in my case is not much different from any other day typing)
[11:00] {jfjf64} r ya writing in russian
01[11:00] {@Threei}  yeah, just using english letters
01[11:01] {@Threei}  and for the most part incorrectly
01[11:02] {@Threei}  I mean, I just learned last week that "korreqt" is not how you spell it
01[11:02] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:02] {@Threei}  good boy SPY
01[11:03] {@Threei}  btw, when I asked nemo why he taught me that spelling, his excuse was: What do you want from a lost fish?
[11:04] {RonS} lol
01[11:05] {@Threei}  .80 is a problem for SPY
01[11:05] {@Threei}  firmer support
01[11:05] {@Threei}  former
01[11:05] {@Threei}  sheesh
01[11:09] {Threei}  server hiccup
[11:10] {RonS} nemo hack?
01[11:10] {Threei}  I suspect so
01[11:10] {Threei}  revenge of the fish
[11:13] {nemo} I'm not a fish
01[11:13] {Threei}  mad captain of a submarine?
[11:13] {nemo} no
[11:14] {jfjf64} got kicked off
01[11:14] {Threei}  that's nemo's doing, jf
[11:14] {nemo} Odysseus to you
01[11:14] {Threei}  he is offended that we can't figure out this ancient Greek thingy
01[11:15] {Threei}  closed balance IWM
[11:15] {nemo} not really...I would expect as much from such Cretins
[11:15] {nemo} ;.-)
[11:16] {nemo} I thought that was rather witty, in a snobbishly arrogant sort of way
01[11:16] {Threei}  capitalizing the word is a sign of respect, right?
[11:16] {nemo} no...a proper noun
01[11:17] {Threei}  ah well... I was just trying to give you an easy way out :)
[11:17] {nemo} originally a Cretin was someone from the isle of Crete, before it took on its more perjorative meaning
01[11:18] {Threei}  is there Debile isle?
[11:18] {nemo} geography not my strong suit
01[11:19] {@Threei}  that's why that submarine eventually crashed
[11:19] {nemo} ahhh, unlike the Kursk
01[11:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  HPQ  .95 break
01[11:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[11:22] {RonS} what the L...  Feltl & Co Downgrades EZchip Semiconductor ($EZCH) to Buy
[11:25] {nemo} wow...just got an email electric company raising rates 37%
01[11:26] {@Threei}  wow
01[11:27] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:37] {nemo} HPQ looks short
01[11:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  RIG  .30 break
01[11:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[11:45] {@Threei}  just a scalp most likely
01[11:46] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  RIG  .20 break
01[11:54] {@Threei}  server has monday blues
[11:54] {cosmo} its a roller coster
01[11:54] {@Threei}  This morning's premarket move higher in US equity markets is being dismissed as a dead cat bounce after both the Nasdaq and the S&P500 dipped into negative territory after 1.5 hours of trading.
01[11:59] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:25] {@Threei}  slooooow
01[12:34] {@Threei}  1:2
01[12:34] {@Threei}  oh boy... 35 min to move 10 cents
[12:59] {dino} hclp sm l .16
01[13:26] {@Threei}  look at RIG
[13:26] {dino} ?
[13:28] {RonS} took hclp .18 out .95  +.77 thanks dino
01[13:28] {@Threei}  run 40 cents more after shaking out our last piece
[13:33] {dino} yw ron, gj
[13:34] {troub} dino, thanks for sharing in HCLP .20 out 45.00
[13:35] {dino} sweet
01[13:35] {@Threei}  wtg guys
[13:36] {dino} out hclp .86, +.70
[13:37] {dino} lol, you guys did better than i on my trade
[13:39] {troub} glad to do it anytime :)
[13:39] {dino} :)
[13:54] {dino} taking all day, but lvnta to .84
[14:00] {dino} to .93
[14:00] {dino} cmrx spike
01[14:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .20 break
01[14:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[14:05] {dino} out lvnta .93, +.80
[14:06] {troub} avery good dino
[14:08] {dino} ty
[14:13] {nathan} hi guys
[14:13] {dino} hey nat
01[14:13] {@Threei}  nathan :)
[14:14] {nathan} did u have a goof day?
[14:14] {nathan} good
01[14:14] {@Threei}  not bad
01[14:14] {@Threei}  nothing outstanding
[14:49] {nathan} love vxx
01[14:50] {@Threei}  looking at it as a last hour play candidate
[14:50] {RonS} hlf gone pulp
[14:52] {RonS} gee, is the horse out of the barn yet?  Ebola screening at airports under consideration from White House and airlines: http://bloom.bg/1xWV3dQ
01[14:53] {@Threei}  heh
01[14:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .85 break
[14:59] {cosmo} it take 7 weeks to determine if its + or -
01[14:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
[14:59] {cosmo} for obola
[14:59] {cosmo} ebola
01[15:02] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:05] {nathan} thx 3i
01[15:05] {@Threei}  :)
[15:09] {RonS} lol...value added:  Alcobra Ltd's PT cut by Roth Capital to $30.00. buy rating
01[15:10] {@Threei}  lol
[15:22] {nathan} gn gents cya tomorrow
01[15:24] {@Threei}  take care nathan
01[15:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .15 break
01[15:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[15:29] {@Threei}  change to .05 break
01[15:30] {@Threei}  change to 109 break
01[15:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[15:34] {@Threei}  nah
[15:35] {jfjf64} rats
[15:36] {jfjf64} 109 break
01[15:38] {@Threei}  second time works
[15:38] {jfjf64} 3rd
[15:38] {jfjf64} lol
[15:41] {RonS} gotta scoot...see y'all tomorrow...
01[15:41] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[15:41] {@Threei}  actually, no point in pressing on last minutes
01[15:41] {@Threei}  scooting too... have a good evening, see you tomorrow

Friday, October 3, 2014

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market UpdateMarkets Shake Off Ebola, Hong Kong Flu, and ECB's Dubious Prescription

Fri, 03 Oct 2014 16:12 PM EST

The contrast between US economic strength and Europe's deflationary headache got even stronger this week. On Thursday, ECB President Draghi outlined his asset purchase plan but left investors with the impression that the program would be too little to beat deflation. Draghi said the ECB's balance sheet would grow back toward €3 trillion compared to near €2 trillion today, suggesting that the potential universe of covered bond and ABS purchases is up to €1 trillion. Meanwhile, the September non-farm payrolls was +248K complemented by a combined 69K in upward revisions to July and August data. The unemployment rate declined from 6.1% in August to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008. The only sour notes were that wage growth was still pretty weak and labor force participation slipped lower. In China, the Occupy Central protest movement took over downtown Hong Kong, driving big sequential declines on the Hang Seng early in the week. The bourse closed for two days of holidays, fell 2% in early trading on Friday and then closed higher. There are real fears that Beijing will not tolerate much more unrest in the city. For the week, the DJIA slipped 0.6%, the S&P500 lost 0.8% and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%.

On Thursday, European stocks suffered their steepest one-day decline in more than a year after the ECB delivered mixed messages on its plans for asset purchases. The central bank indicated that the ABS and covered bond purchase program could rise to as much as one trillion euros over two years, but failed to detail how much it might start with. President Draghi said that the bank would make provisions in the ABS program to include some bonds from Cyprus and Greece that are below investment grade and monitor the impact of the ABS and TLTRO programs on inflation expectations in the "coming months, not coming years". The statements suggest that possibility of sovereign bonds purchases - the ECB's big, controversial policy bazooka - are off the table for quite some time. After the policy decision, reports indicated significant opposition to the ABS program (much less full blown QE). Hans Werner Sinn, head of Germany's hawkish IFO Institute, said asset purchase program was outside the ECB's mandate and called on the German government to counter the move. Reports suggest at least three ECB governors oppose parts or all of the ABS program: Germany's Schaeuble is long on the record opposing any form of ECB asset purchases, Austria's Nowotny is said to also oppose the program, while France's Noyer opposes the use of external brokers to buy securities. In the wake of the ECB statement, the stocks in Italy plummeted 3.9%, Spain declined 3.1%, France dropped 2.8%, Germany fell 2.0%, and the Euro Stoxx dropped 2.4%.

In an echo of protest movement seen over recent years in Egypt, Ukraine, Iran and elsewhere, students and citizens in Hong Kong occupied public space last weekend and began agitating for free elections after Beijing demanded that it be able to vet candidates for local office. The protests drew a heavy-handed initial response from the police, who pepper sprayed crowds on Sunday. Students refused to leave parts of downtown and demanded that Hong Kong Chief Leung Chun-ying resign by Thursday. Leung refused, although he permitted negotiations between the students and the police. Beijing has been largely silent on the protests, however there were vague reports of troop movements near the city and a thinly sourced report that it had given Hong Kong leaders notice to resolve the problem quickly or have the Chinese military do it for them. There was another round of violence between the students and locals opposed to the protests (or paid thugs, alternatively) on Friday, but as of writing neither side seemed to have the upper hand.

Front-month WTI crude has moved lower all summer, declining from the ISIS/Ukraine highs above $104/barrel in June to just shy of 2014 lows around $88 on Thursday. The rise of the dollar is the prime candidate behind crude weakness, however other news out this week also contributed to the move below $90. There were reports Saudi Aramco lowered crude prices for November delivery by $1/barrel, and also cut prices for certain natural gas deliveries. This followed reports earlier in September that Saudi Arabia trimmed production levels in the past month. There has been talk among analysts that OPEC members are gearing up for a price war. OPEC has declined to call an extraordinary meeting to discuss the situation, and its next meeting is scheduled for November 27th. Brent crude slid to $92/barrel, more than 20% below its June peak.

Ebola arrived in the United States this week. The CDC confirmed the first case of Ebola was diagnosed Texas, where a traveler from Liberia has been hospitalized after spending time in his home country aiding Ebola victims. On Friday, Texas health officials said they were monitoring 50 people that the man had come in contact with and that 10 of them might be at high risk for contracting Ebola. Airline, cruise ship and hotel shares have been under pressure this week on the news.

Chrysler and GM reported September vehicle sales up 18.8% y/y and 19.4% y/y, respectively. Meanwhile Ford said its sales fell 2.7% y/y due to lower fleet sales and a planned pull-back on sales of its 2014 F-150 pickup as it prepares to introduce the 2015 all-aluminum F-150. The industry's SAAR annualized sales rate cooled off to 16.43 million from the torrid 17.53 million pace in August.

Salix Pharmaceuticals called off a merger deal with Italy's Cosmo Pharmaceuticals that was structured as a tax inversion. This comes just a week after the US Treasury took a series of steps to curb such deals and prevent companies from avoiding taxes. Since the Treasury announcement, the company faced pressure from top shareholders to cancel the deal and sell itself, possibly to Allergan or Actavis. Tibco Software agreed to sell itself to Vista Equity Partners for $4.3 billion, or $24/share. The sale comes after a difficult year for Tibco, which has faced declining profits and pressure from an activist investor to sell.

The rise of the dollar continued unabated this week, to the detriment of nearly every other global currency. Between disappointment with Draghi's ABS plan and the very strong September US jobs report, nothing appears able to stop the greenback, and many analysts have started discussing a secular reversal in the 30-year downtrend in the dollar. EUR/USD tried to retake its 200-day moving average on Monday around 1.2710, and then broke to 1.2570 after the advance September Eurozone CPI reading slid to 0.3% v 0.3%e and the core reading came in lower than expected, 0.7% v 0.9%e. USD/JPY rose to 110.10 as of Tuesday, prompting a pullback to 108 later in the week. The pair retested 109.90 on Friday in the wake of the September US jobs report.

China mainland markets were on holiday for much of the week, however the Stats Bureau still put out the official PMI figures for September. The manufacturing sector reading remained just above the threshold of expansion at 51.1, a decimal better than consensus and unchanged from the prior month. New orders and Employment components marked notable declines, prompting government economists to assess the overall business sentiment as weak. Non-manufacturing PMI was also somewhat of a disappointment, falling to an 8-month low of 54.0 from 54.4 on marked deceleration in Services, Input Prices, and Inventories components. The Shanghai Composite returns for trading on Wednesday as Beijing prepares for the start of the party Plenum on October 20th that will hopefully yield a verdict on the future of PBoC Gov Zhou.



Oct 03 2014

Another strong day, albeit a bit on a slowish side. One stop, the rest are nice winners. Overall, October starts on the nice note.


Session Time: Fri Oct 03 00:00:00 2014
[09:05] {cosmo} Gold tests 1200 fwiw
01[09:06] {@Threei}  and you know how it's going to end, right?
[09:06] {cosmo} 600?
[09:06] {cosmo} not today though...hehe
01[09:06] {@Threei}  well... can't vouch for exact bottom, but neither 1200 nor 1000 are going to hold
[09:12] {RonS} howdy gents
01[09:13] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:17] {jfjf64} morni
01[09:18] {@Threei}  jf :)
[09:19] {troub} good morning
01[09:19] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:27] {ese} mornin
01[09:27] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Upside:-RSH +30% (momentum from speculation company reached financing agreement with group led by Standard General - halted premarket)-RMTI +15% (signed exclusive distribution agreement with BAX for $20M)-MYL +6% (raised Q3 guidance)-HALO +5.2% (FDA grants orphan drug designation for PEGylated recombinant human hyaluronidase PH20)lgcy-RECN +3.7% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  Downside:-ADTN -5% (lowered Q3 guidance)-LGCY -5% (priced 10M share offering at $27.38/shr)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
[09:31] {nemo} omg, they changed the LII layout according to my suggestions
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:32] {@Threei}  what did they do?
[09:33] {jfjf64} take picture
[09:33] {nemo} put the high and low directly over each other so that instead of at opposite sides and on different lines of the LI information
[09:34] {nemo} makes it easy to get a sense of the range for the day
01[09:34] {@Threei}  I'd also like to see a change from yest close
01[09:34] {@Threei}  since they listen to you, please suggest that too
01[09:35] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break
[09:35] {nemo} that was one thing that was great about DAS, incredible layout flexibility
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:37] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:37] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:37] {dino} gm
01[09:37] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:38] {nemo} spy gonna test 195
01[09:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .20 BREAK
01[09:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:41] {@Threei}  change to .30 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:41] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:49] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .15 break
[09:49] {ese} i'm definitely out of practise man...watching jdst.....saw what looked like a break at 18.80....did not pull the trigger.....wheres the vodka
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[09:50] {@Threei}  vodka at 6:50 am?
01[09:50] {@Threei}  come on ese, only after 7
01[09:50] {@Threei}  half out
01[09:51] {@Threei}  stop .09
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:51] {ese} all i had to do was 100 lousy stinkin no good fer nuttin shs just to get the nerves janglin ....sheesh!
01[09:51] {@Threei}  to .14
[09:51] {ese} lol
[09:51] {jfjf64} ty
01[09:51] {@Threei}  yw
[09:53] {dino} vodka ok ese. its 9:50 here
[09:53] {ese} lol
[09:54] {ese} done
[09:54] {nemo} EBAY
[09:55] {ese} nah....ya can't buy vodka on ebay
01[09:56] {@Threei}  what good is it then
[09:57] {ese} excellent question
[09:58] {ese} in jdst .36 sm
[09:59] {ese} lets see if it's got anything left
[09:59] {nemo} numbers
[10:00] {RonS} 1...2...3...chachacha
[10:00] {ese} lol
[10:00] {ese} perfect tune for the occasion
01[10:00] {@Threei}  10:00 *(US) SEPT ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 58.6 V 58.5E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  lol ron
[10:02] {ese} jdst stop to break even
[10:02] {ese} it's a classic free money play now
[10:02] {jfjf64} that's great
[10:03] {ese} indeed
[10:03] {ese} out .50
[10:03] {ese} +.14
[10:04] {ese} close enough for jazz
[10:05] {ese} aye laddies......tha geets tha nerves ahhhhh janglin
[10:05] {jfjf64} mkt marching
[10:05] {nemo} so doesn't coke
[10:06] {ese} lol.......well........ahhhhhhhhh ......yes it does
[10:12] {ese} alright alright.......it's up somemore........so sue me......i'm outta practise....
[10:12] {ese} a probelm thats easily correctable
[10:12] {dino} out kerx calls from few weeks ago, +.30/17%
[10:13] {nemo} lucky bastid
[10:13] {ese} says something about things to come maybe.......junior gold minor climbing ......people moving to some safety maybe
01[10:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  78 break
01[10:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:14] {ese} lol
[10:15] {dino} imo don't over read gold today ese
[10:15] {ese} I see what your gettin at there nemo.....dino rubbin things in now......not only puts the profit up but the  PERCENTAGE!!!!!!!!!!! as well..........well I never!
[10:15] {ese} will heed that advice
01[10:21] {@Threei}  no worky
[10:38] {dino} hmm, just bought a 900 sq ft foreclosure house for $20,000. thats the lowest i've ever paid
[10:39] {nemo} nice dog house
[10:40] {dino} actually, not too bad, needs about $8k in work. should make a good rental (or flip)
[10:41] {RonS} true story...bot 1st house 1978, 900 sq ft for $85k, sold 2 yrs later for $135k, now worth $800k...San Bruno CA
[10:41] {jfjf64} wow
[10:42] {dino} closing on one 10/24, bought for 88k, 30k renovations, selling at 175
[10:42] {ese} that is a wow ron......
[10:43] {jfjf64} how long did reno tk dino
[10:43] {dino} 60 days
[10:43] {dino} listed for 90 days
[10:43] {dino} whole project 6 months
[10:44] {jfjf64} nice return
01[10:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .25 break
01[10:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
[10:53] {dino} out athm calls from 2 days ago, +.76/20%
01[10:55] {@Threei}  stop to .19
01[11:01] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:04] {jfjf64} common baby
01[11:05] {@Threei}  with whom?
[11:06] {nemo} BABA filed to offer more shares
01[11:06] {@Threei}  ok, got it... BABA has common baby with YHOO
[11:06] {jfjf64} lol
[11:07] {nemo} drinking too much grain alcohol there Vad?
[11:07] {jfjf64} I think
01[11:07] {@Threei}  oh come on... it would be funnier if you knew russian
01[11:07] {@Threei}  baba is russian for broad
[11:08] {jfjf64} in that case baba for all
[11:10] {jfjf64} common baba
01[11:11] {@Threei}  this is very bolsheviks
[11:11] {jfjf64} ?
01[11:13] {@Threei}  free love was one of the ideas of original communists of 1917
01[11:13] {@Threei}  Lenin called it glass of water theory
01[11:14] {@Threei}  where sex was as natural need as thirst and should have been just as easy to satisfy
01[11:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .90 break
01[11:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[11:25] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:25] {@Threei}  a few min ago, lol
01[11:25] {@Threei}  thought I hit enter, turns out I didn't
[11:43] {RonS} rig pulp over icahn rumor
01[12:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[12:19] {@Threei}  If holds  110
[12:25] {nemo} SPY approaching double top, could be going for 196.60ish, or the gap above .70
01[12:31] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:38] {RonS} hearing Sarah Palin is sending heartfelt prayers to all the people in Ebola...
[12:40] {nemo} We should send Jane Fonda on a goodwill tour
01[12:44] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:45] {jfjf64} yikes
[12:46] {jfjf64} nice job
[12:46] {nemo} SPY kissed the gap and puked
[13:00] {dino} nemo, your gut feel, up pr down?
[13:00] {dino} or
[13:01] {dino} have some vxx puts from tuesday itm
[13:01] {nemo} vxx should go up this afternoon
[13:01] {nemo} ebola and weekend
[13:01] {dino} gut says same
[13:01] {nemo} spy might want to see about getting the stops through the gap and maybe 197 but looks weak currently
[13:02] {dino} taking them off
[13:04] {nemo} hope they took a flame thrower to that area where that guy was puking in Dallas
[13:04] {dino} no kiiding
[13:04] {dino} kidding too
[13:05] {nemo} but now it's in the sewerage system...Pandora's box has been opened
[13:06] {nemo} I love how no connection between the arrival of enterovirus afflicting kids and the influx of people from Central America seem to coincide
[13:07] {RonS} thing is attacking their spine and rendering them paralyzed...
[13:08] {dino} nasty
[13:08] {nemo} just killed a kid in Rhode Island
[13:08] {jfjf64} really
[13:09] {nemo} but we just have to bring them in and redistribute them all over the country as fast as possible
[13:09] {dino} think of all the usa mandatory vaccinations those kids never got
[13:09] {nemo} yeah, but the DEMS have to build that voter base as quickly as possible
[13:09] {jfjf64} vxx startin climb
[13:10] {dino} thats what its about nemo, you hit the nail on the head
[13:11] {nemo} better than my thumb
[13:17] {nemo} VXX probably long if it holds .55
[13:17] {nemo} you decide where you want to get in
[13:19] {nemo} IWM at VWAP likely bounce a bit
[13:20] {jfjf64} you have vwap on logix
[13:20] {jfjf64} didn't see it
[13:20] {nemo} freestockcharts.com
[13:20] {jfjf64} is it free
[13:20] {dino} yes
[13:21] {nemo} jf?  are you blonde?
[13:21] {jfjf64} will check it out
[13:21] {nemo} downes syndrome?
[13:21] {jfjf64} lol
[13:21] {nemo} FREEstockcharts.com
[13:21] {jfjf64} common all sites say free
[13:22] {nemo} there are definitely features for which you can pay, but it's amazing what you get from them for free
[13:22] {nemo} btw...they will be implementing VWAP in Logix
[13:22] {nemo} VXX basically held .55
[13:22] {jfjf64} good
[13:22] {nathan} hi all
[13:23] {nemo} hey hombre
[13:23] {nathan} :-)
[13:23] {nemo} .61 long
01[13:23] {@Threei}  hey nathan
[13:28] {nemo} I feel a rinse coming on
[13:31] {jfjf64} lk to see push down to .55 1 more time
[13:31] {jfjf64} then im with ya hombre
[13:31] {nemo} o.k. blondie
[13:31] {nathan} die SPY
[13:34] {nemo} eat my dust JF
[13:34] {jfjf64} I was just gonna cograt ya
[13:34] {nemo} stop to BE
[13:34] {nathan} yeeeah best trade of the week
[13:34] {nemo} at least the software works today
[13:35] {nathan} you're right
[13:35] {nemo} I'm thinking vwap
[13:39] {nemo} SPY should test that 196.50 area, if it can't get through, probably goes sout to VWAP
[13:43] {nemo} shit, that was supposed to be a 1:10er
[13:46] {nemo} stop held so far
[13:46] {nemo} you hop on jf?
[13:46] {nemo} I'll let you ride "bitch"
[13:46] {nemo} reminds me...
[13:46] {jfjf64} no
[13:47] {nemo} was driving on the highway once, guy on a Harley has a t-shirt that says on the back:  "If you can read this, the bitch fell off!"
[13:48] {nathan} lol
[13:48] {nemo} wow, u got that nathan.  Didn't know you understood American biker culture
[13:48] {nathan} of course dude
[13:49] {nemo} no puedo decirle
[13:49] {nathan} what?
[13:50] {nemo} No se, I wanted to say you left me speechless
[13:50] {nemo} sheesh
[13:50] {nathan} jejejeje
01[13:51] {@Threei}  ok, that's actually funny
01[13:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .90 break
01[13:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[14:03] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:04] {nemo} guess spy wants to try the gap again
[14:27] {nathan} 3i did you this digital cameras technology? https://www.lytro.com/
[14:27] {nathan} know
01[14:27] {@Threei}  yeah
01[14:28] {@Threei}  not really interested... gimmick :)
[14:28] {nathan} no?
[14:28] {nathan} too much post-porduction?
01[14:28] {@Threei}  just don't see the point
[14:29] {nathan} it's like u record all the details and then u decide
01[14:29] {@Threei}  I make about a zillion of decisions when frame a photo,
01[14:29] {@Threei}  focus plane os just one of them,
01[14:29] {@Threei}  why would I want to pick this particular one and postpone decision to postproduction phase?
[14:29] {nathan} you never know
01[14:30] {@Threei}  I decide what I want to be a focal center of the image and focus on it,
01[14:30] {@Threei}  if I feel I may want a different idea, or several ideas, or combine images for increased depth of field, I will take a few, with various focis points
01[14:31] {@Threei}  and stack them in postproduction
01[14:31] {@Threei}  I do that often
01[14:31] {@Threei}  to have this ability for all of them and sacrifice image quality to a degree these cmeras do, nah
01[14:32] {@Threei}  compare what Lytros produce with anything that real cameras do, it's not even gunny
[14:32] {nathan} hehehe, pros don't like.
01[14:32] {@Threei}  funny
01[14:32] {@Threei}  if they can introcue this technology on the on/off basis to real cameras, great, I'll gldaly use it
01[14:32] {@Threei}  introduce
01[14:33] {@Threei}  but to purchadse a camera that made it its major selling point while having other, much more needed capabilities, trimmed down, no
[14:34] {nathan} i had same conversation my one colleague a thinks exactly the same
[14:35] {nathan} If he could he'd be revealing his own photos
[14:35] {nathan} at home
[14:36] {nemo} spy gap 197.01
[14:36] {nathan} dont want to spoil the day
[14:36] {nathan} have a great weekend
01[14:36] {@Threei}  take care nathan
[14:37] {nemo} vaya con Diablo
[14:37] {nathan} you crack me up nemo
[14:37] {nemo} helps to be insane
[14:38] {nathan} lol
01[14:38] {@Threei}  nathan, here still?
[14:38] {nathan} yes
01[14:38] {@Threei}  http://www.dpreview.com/reviews/lytro/5
01[14:38] {@Threei}  says it all
[14:39] {nathan} let me see
01[14:40] {@Threei}  "Image quality is also comparable with a smartphone"
01[14:40] {@Threei}  hehe
[14:40] {nathan} definitely this is not for pros
01[14:41] {@Threei}  yeah, but the problem is: do amateurs want this heavy posproduction?
[14:41] {nathan} "...sharable on facebook" sounds like crapp
01[14:41] {@Threei}  so, who is it aimed at?
[14:42] {nathan} only for "early addopters" or techies
01[14:42] {@Threei}  yeah, novelty item
[14:42] {dino} calling it a day here. have to get take care of the house contract. gn all
01[14:42] {@Threei}  take care dino
01[14:42] {@Threei}  I don't know whether this tech can be used in conventional cameras
01[14:43] {@Threei}  if so, they'd better try to license it out
01[14:43] {@Threei}  if not, well... looks like stillborn to be
01[14:43] {@Threei}  to me
[14:43] {nathan} yeah sounds the same for me
[14:43] {nathan} unless you add it like a "new function"
01[15:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  60 break
01[15:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[15:04] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[15:04] {@Threei}  but wathcing
01[15:07] {@Threei}  hmmmm... should have recalibrated it to .50
[15:08] {nemo} do you have gaps in your LII depth of book in VXX Vad?
01[15:10] {@Threei}  yes
[15:12] {jfjf64} .60
[15:35] {RonS} outta here...good weekend to all
01[15:36] {@Threei}  take care ron
01[15:46] {@Threei}  OK guys, finishing good week with a good day
[15:46] {jfjf64} gnight all
01[15:46] {@Threei}  have a great relaxing weekend, see you Monday



Thursday, October 2, 2014

Oct 02 2014

Almost perfect day, with winners one after another, anywhere from 1:2 to 1:4, and just one stop that couldn't even make a dent. Got practically all the market twists and turns right, and utilized them precisely.



Session Start: Thu Oct 02 02:12:17 2014

[09:01] {dino} gm
01[09:01] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:02] {RonS} hello buccaneers...
01[09:02] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:14] {cosmo} An optimist sees a glass half full. A pessimist sees it half empty. An engineer sees it twice as large as it needs to be.
01[09:16] {@Threei}  makes sense
01[09:18] {@Threei}  TV series Gracepoint starts today... filmed in my neck of the woods
01[09:21] {@Threei}  NYMEX crude trades below $90/bbl for the first time since April 2013
[09:22] {nemo} yeah, and a friend of mine in Florida says they just jacked up gas prices $.20/gal.  Refiners are taking systems off line for "unscheduled" maintenance...how convenient
[09:26] {RonS} The Dow Chemical Co.(DOW) said Thursday it is marketing three of its businesses for divestment, and it now expects the proceeds of its entire divestiture program to be at the higher end of its $4.5 billion to $6 billion range.
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ESPR +26% (announced positive top-line Phase 2b results for ETC-1002 post-market 10/1; positive broker commentary this morning)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -RLD +25% (momentum from news Starboard Value made offer to acquire the company for $12/shr)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -WLT +13% (takeover speculation)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -LPCN +12% (filed $100M mixed shelf)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ARIA +11% (FDA awarded AP-26113 breakthrough therapy designation for ALK & NSCLC resistant to Crizotinib)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -DRL +5% (provided status update on capital plan)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -TSLA +5% (CEO Musk says "About time to unveil the D and something else" on 10/9)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -KNDI +4% (momentum from TSLA comments on new product)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -VNET +4% (formed strategic partnership with China Internet Network Information Center)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -NNVC +2.6% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CREE -14% (guided Q1 EPS & Rev lower citing lower global demand - - VECO -4.7% and AIXG -3.4% down in sympathy)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -WILN -12% (updated litigation status; judge granted AAPL's motion for summary judgemen)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LAKE -6% (Ebola concerns abating slightly; TKMR also down 1%)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -NLNK -5% (appointed Jack Henneman CFO, effective immediately, replacing Gordon Link)
[09:28] {RonS} so the net net is minuslink?
01[09:29] {@Threei}  lol
[09:31] {jfjf64} morning all
01[09:31] {@Threei}  jf :)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  fast 1:1
[09:32] {jfjf64} that fast
01[09:32] {@Threei}  I mean 1:2
01[09:32] {@Threei}  no, 1:3
[09:32] {jfjf64} hees
[09:32] {troub} good morning
01[09:32] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:32] {jfjf64} well nice read
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  108
[09:35] {nemo} should hold .95
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:38] {@Threei}  stop .14
[09:41] {jfjf64} ty
[09:41] {RonS} Italian banks now being halted limit down as stocks remain under pressure post QE disappointment from ECB; Bank stocks in IT & SP down 4%-5%
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:44] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:45] {nemo} that should be it
[09:46] {jfjf64} ?
[09:46] {nemo} top
[09:46] {nemo} Europe crashing
[09:46] {nemo} how do we stay up
01[09:47] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .50 break
[09:47] {jfjf64} vxx
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:51] {@Threei}  ugh.... FB got away
[09:51] {jfjf64} iwm to our stop look
01[09:52] {@Threei}  [09:46] {nemo} Europe crashing
01[09:52] {@Threei}  [09:46] {nemo} how do we stay up
01[09:52] {@Threei}  it's not that simple... depends on why it's crashing
[09:52] {nemo} yep
01[09:52] {@Threei}  some reasons supress both, and some kill one to the benefit of the other
[09:54] {nemo} spy and finnies can't get higher
01[09:56] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .70 break
01[09:56] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:00] {@Threei}  half out
01[10:00] {@Threei}  stop .64
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG FACTORY ORDERS: -10.1% V -9.5%E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  ACOR Ticking higher following indication that it may appear on CNBC's Mad Money later today
[10:01] {jfjf64} caught in battle
01[10:01] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REVISED LOWER TO -18.4% FROM -18.2% PRIOR
[10:03] {nemo} looks like I was one thrust behind
[10:05] {nemo} LVS
01[10:08] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:10] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[10:10] {@Threei}  stop .74
[10:11] {nemo} missed LVS
01[10:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break
01[10:22] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:26] {jfjf64} hey
01[10:27] {@Threei}  takes you a while, eh? :)
[10:27] {jfjf64} what happen
[10:27] {jfjf64} I got tossed off in dal trade anyone else
01[10:28] {@Threei}  DAL??
01[10:28] {@Threei}  10:10] {@Threei} stop .74
01[10:28] {@Threei}  closed long ago
[10:28] {jfjf64} yes
01[10:28] {@Threei}  TWTR .20 long in play now
[10:28] {jfjf64} lost connection
01[10:29] {@Threei}  nah
01[10:35] {Threei}  looks like downtrend is establishing, let's see if we can get VXX on pullback
01[10:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .15 break
01[10:38] {Threei}  If holds  .05
01[10:42] {Threei}  1:1
01[10:43] {Threei}  1:2
[10:45] {jfjf64} stop .24
[10:46] {jfjf64} correct
01[10:46] {Threei}  yes
[10:46] {nemo} bounce time
[10:47] {nemo} SPY closed gap
[10:49] {jfjf64} .80 iwm
[10:49] {jfjf64} hold.70
[10:55] {jfjf64} what is thoughts 3i bounce
[10:55] {jfjf64} or lower
01[10:58] {Threei}  downtrend
01[10:58] {Threei}  no signs of bounce
01[10:58] {Threei}  too bad VXX balance was rinsed
[10:58] {nemo} IWM testing yesterday's low, IWM likely 193.25
[10:59] {jfjf64} yes
[10:59] {jfjf64} grinding up
[10:59] {nemo} finnies at top of gap and yesterday's lows
[11:05] {nemo} missed the bounce
01[11:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
01[11:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
02[11:31] * Disconnected
Session Close: Thu Oct 02 11:31:24 2014

Session Start: Thu Oct 02 11:31:24 2014
Session Ident: #discussions
02[11:34] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[11:34] * Rejoined channel #discussions
01[11:34] {Threei}  1:1
01[11:37] {Threei}  1:2
01[11:44] {Threei}  1:4
01[11:44] {Threei}  out
01[11:46] {Threei}  Bending phone as a new technological achievement: first time in history Apple really combined hardware and software
[11:46] {RonS} lol
[11:48] {jfjf64} hey hey
[11:49] {jfjf64} keep getting booted
01[11:49] {Threei}  but you did get VXX trade, right?
[11:49] {jfjf64} yes sir
01[11:49] {Threei}  :)
[11:49] {jfjf64} anybody else getting booted or just me
01[11:49] {Threei}  just you
[11:50] {troub} me too
01[11:50] {Threei}  and it's all nemo's fault
[11:50] {jfjf64} what cd be on my end
[11:50] {jfjf64} platform runnin ect
01[11:50] {Threei}  kidding jf, never mind... it's server
[11:50] {jfjf64} lol
[11:50] {jfjf64} nemo fault
01[11:51] {Threei}  although techies say this looks like some external reason
01[11:51] {Threei}  hardware is fine
01[11:51] {Threei}  and software, sheesh, it's just Linux-based irc server, there is nothing to be broken there
[11:51] {troub} Putin, ISIS,or Republicans?
01[11:51] {Threei}  no idea
01[11:52] {Threei}  could also be China, democrats, teachers union
01[11:52] {Threei}  PETA
01[11:55] {Threei}  Canada: 2013-2014 budget year deficit is slashed from over $16B to just over $5B
01[11:56] {Threei}  with clear perspective of surplus in 2015
01[11:56] {Threei}  just in time for 1015 election... ese will be livid
01[11:56] {Threei}  and unless some kind of political bomb goes off, next election will be a cakewalk for Harper
[11:59] {dino} db filling bunch of gaps
01[12:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .20 break
01[12:00] {Threei}  If holds  .10
01[12:02] {Threei}  https://www.facebook.com/VadymGraiferPhotography/photos/a.488848774527976.1073741828.483178015095052/723217827757735/?type=1&theater
01[12:05] {Threei}  recovery time
01[12:05] {Threei}  go IWM
[12:05] {jfjf64} any pictures of cheerleaders
01[12:07] {Threei}  1:1
[12:07] {dino} athm sm l .25
01[12:09] {Threei}  1:2
[12:09] {dino} hclp sm l .00
[12:10] {dino} feye sm l .79
[12:17] {dino} this will be down 8 of last 10 days
[12:18] {dino} out hclp .32,
[12:18] {dino} +.32
01[12:27] {Threei}  wtg
[12:30] {dino} ty
01[12:33] {Threei}  what did we have a single stop today?
01[12:33] {Threei}  the rest ranged from 1:2 to 1:4
[12:35] {jfjf64} not to shabby
[12:35] {jfjf64} gjo
[12:35] {jfjf64} job
[12:49] {dino} sn sm l .90
[12:55] {dino} o7 green
[12:55] {dino} rally time
[12:58] {dino} oujt sn .25, +.35
[13:00] {jfjf64} nice
[13:00] {jfjf64} gringing it out dino
[13:00] {jfjf64} wtg
[13:00] {jfjf64} grinding
[13:02] {dino} ty
[13:04] {dino} markets want green
[13:04] {nemo} buying starting to come into the market
[13:06] {dino} out athm .01, +.76
[13:08] {dino} out feye .05, +.26
[13:13] {dino} we filled the s/p gap and can within 20 of the dji gap, worst may be over
[13:13] {nemo} yeah, algo has 8% side switcher from weak to strong
[13:13] {nemo} that's looking like a selling bottom
[13:13] {dino} tmus spike
[13:14] {nemo} spy will go for stops the other side of 194 probably
[13:14] {dino} news tmus?
[13:15] {dino} sm s .00
[13:15] {nemo} not since this morning
[13:16] {dino} cov .80, +.20
01[13:18] {Threei}  don't see any
01[13:18] {Threei}  here it is
01[13:18] {Threei}  TMUS Ticks higher on renewed reports that Iliad could boost its offer for a larger stake in the company
[13:19] {dino} i chickened out on the short
[13:21] {nemo} yep, this looking more and more like the bottom
[13:21] {dino} btfd
[13:26] {dino} green
[13:31] {dino} damn, made money but sold all of those above way too soon
[13:42] {nemo} interesting. Goldman Sachs never went red today
[13:48] {nemo} VXX
[14:07] {nathan} hi all
01[14:09] {Threei}  hey nathan
[14:11] {nathan} everything ok with logix today?
01[14:11] {Threei}  yes
01[14:11] {Threei}  with market too
[14:11] {nemo} no...I'm having connection problems
[14:11] {nathan} me too
01[14:11] {Threei}  really? none here
[14:12] {nemo} look at your server message menu
[14:12] {nathan} reconnecting...
[14:12] {nemo} yeah
[14:12] {cosmo} I've been going up and down all day here
[14:12] {nathan} what TTR u get nemo?
01[14:12] {Threei}  must be route specific
[14:12] {nemo} terrible 150
[14:12] {nemo} no
[14:13] {nathan} me 237
01[14:13] {Threei}  what is the good number?
[14:13] {nemo} that's a connection to LOGIX Vad, not the ECN
[14:13] {nathan} { 140ms
01[14:13] {Threei}  I mean internet route, not execution route
[14:14] {nathan} at home so far works fine, 10Mbps
[14:16] {nemo} I have 95 mbps and a 19ms ping from Boston to New Jersey, but my connection to Logix sucks
01[14:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  109 break
01[14:17] {Threei}  If holds  .90
01[14:21] {Threei}  Invalidated
[14:22] {nemo} .80 is support
[14:38] {jfjf64} valid again 3i
[14:38] {jfjf64} ??
01[14:38] {Threei}  yes, same condfition
[14:43] {jfjf64} hod .14
01[14:43] {Threei}  1:1
[14:45] {jfjf64} common baby
01[14:50] {Threei}  1:2
[15:14] {nathan} well gents have a good evening
[15:15] {nathan} cya tomorrow
01[15:15] {Threei}  take care nathan
01[15:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
[15:32] {jfjf64} die mkt
01[15:32] {Threei}  1:1
01[15:44] {Threei}  thank you all, great day
01[15:44] {Threei}  have a good evening
01[15:44] {Threei}  see you tomorrow

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Oct .01 2014

Not our day really, too jerky action. A few good trades here and there, but stops outrun them.


Session Time: Wed Oct 01 00:00:00 2014

[08:57] {dino} gm 3i
01[08:58] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:17] {RonS} hi guys
01[09:18] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:21] {RonS} appears nemo was correct...that condition paralyzing kids does come from central america, amongst other places...damned pc bastards covering it up...worse than ebola...alrady 10 cases in CO
01[09:21] {@Threei}  wow
01[09:21] {@Threei}  first time I hear about that
01[09:21] {@Threei}  [NYT] To cut 100 newsroom jobs on cost controls; to close opinion content mobile app - press citing management letter
01[09:22] {@Threei}  close that miserable paper already
01[09:22] {@Threei}  (US) Health official in Dallas reportedly holding off on categorizing a second patient as a potentially infected by Ebola - press **Reminder: Earlier today there was a local press report of a potential second case of Ebola being investigated in North Texas
[09:29] {ese} morning
01[09:29] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:30] {nemo} dino TKMR
01[09:31] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -TKMR +26% (first confirmed case of Ebola in the US; also moving on the news: NANO +15%, LAKE +12%, BCRX +5%, SRPT +5%)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -ANGI +20% (rumored to have hired bankers to explore potential sale)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -OILT +12% (sells GP & LP interests to EPD for $4.41B cash/stock)
[09:31] {dino} yeah, see it, but w/ebola, not sure i want to play it
01[09:31] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -FNMA/FMCC -55% (adverse litigation ruling)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -WPRT -25% (lowered FY14 Rev guidance; negative broker commentary)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -SPEX -23% (Markman hearing set for VTech and Uniden litigation)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -AZZ -12% (increased dividend)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -DRL -11% (disclosed net costs related to disposal activities)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -ASEI -10% (expects net loss in Q2 & will reduce workforce by 10%)
01[09:31] {@Threei}  -JBLU -3.2% (Ebola fears depressing travel/gaming/hospitality sectors; also down marginally on the news: LUV, UAL, DAL, CCL
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .60 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {troub} good morning
[09:33] {nemo} oh gawd
01[09:34] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .30 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  .c .20
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:37] {@Threei}  nope
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:39] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:39] {@Threei}  airlines really getting hit
01[09:39] {@Threei}  BBRY Hearing renewed takeover chatter circulating- Lenovo rumored as a potential acquirer
[09:41] {RonS} rail car guys hit trn gbx
[09:42] {RonS} csc pulp
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .90 break
01[09:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:43] {@Threei}  wow... still not ready
[09:45] {jfjf64} mornin
01[09:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break
01[09:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:46] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:47] {jfjf64} did I miss anything
[09:47] {nemo} market carnage
01[09:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[09:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[09:48] {@Threei}  meh
[09:50] {dino} need that whoosh down to gaps
01[09:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
[09:51] {dino} only about 250 more on ji
01[09:51] {@Threei}  did double bottom and consolidation
01[09:51] {@Threei}  has to be it
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:53] {jfjf64} giddy up
01[09:54] {@Threei}  held pullback by fingertips
[09:54] {nemo} fb bearish action can't get above .45
01[09:55] {@Threei}  ok, out
[09:55] {jfjf64} pull bk vxx
[09:57] {dino} ocrx smr l .03
[09:58] {dino} pcrx
[09:58] {dino} sndk sm l .70
[10:00] {dino} mkt drop
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) SEPT ISM MANUFACTURING: 56.6 V 58.5E; ISM PRICES PAID: V 57.0E -
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) AUG CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: -0.8% V 0.5%E
[10:01] {dino} its as if they are fudging the numbers to keep fed at bay, one month good, next month sucks, etc
01[10:01] {@Threei}  no kidding
01[10:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .45 break
01[10:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[10:03] {dino} pcrx stop
01[10:04] {@Threei}  grrr
[10:04] {dino} sndk stop -.20
[10:05] {nemo} you went long dino, it couldn't get above vwap
[10:06] {dino} tbbk drop
[10:06] {jfjf64} twtr
[10:07] {nemo} We are due for a wretching puke day
[10:07] {nemo} watch for the glamour stocks to puke
[10:14] {nemo} no buying, 195 test coming
[10:16] {dino} added feye jan calls
[10:17] {dino} 07 green
[10:23] {jfjf64} twtr.07
[10:23] {jfjf64} hod.97
[10:30] {nemo} expe has ebola
01[10:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .75 break
[10:32] {nemo} DAL has ebola too
01[10:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[10:34] {@Threei}  sheesh
[10:34] {nemo} travel stocks have ebola today
[10:34] {jfjf64} terriable
[10:39] {dino} naz -3.8%
[10:39] {dino} getting close
[10:40] {nemo} yeah, I'm finding chunks of sky on the ground
01[10:48] {@Threei} Short Setup: VXX  .80 break
01[10:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:50] {dino} gotta hop early today, real estate issues. gl all
01[10:51] {@Threei}  take care dino
01[10:51] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:00] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:04] {@Threei}  1:3 close enough
01[11:04] {@Threei}  out
01[11:04] {@Threei}  finally something decent
[11:05] {jfjf64} gj
01[11:05] {@Threei}  ty
01[11:06] {@Threei}  1:4
01[11:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .95 break
01[11:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[11:20] {@Threei}  half out
01[11:31] {@Threei}  [NFLX] The nation's four-largest movie theater chains are pushing back against NFLX/Weinstein/IMAX deal to keep the sequel to "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" out of most theaters
01[11:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  UAL  46 break
01[11:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[11:45] {@Threei}  hl
01[11:45] {@Threei}  a bit too volatile
01[11:47] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[12:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .75 break
01[12:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[12:07] {@Threei}  stop .69
01[12:07] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:08] {@Threei}  almost
01[12:14] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break
01[12:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[12:17] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[12:18] {jfjf64} fb snake
01[12:30] {@Threei}  not liking today much
01[12:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .05 break
01[12:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
01[12:49] {@Threei}  half out
01[12:49] {@Threei}  this could be nice panic
01[12:49] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:54] {@Threei}  nah... just another scalp
01[13:03] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .20 break
01[13:03] {@Threei}  looks like reversal, no panic
01[13:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[13:04] {@Threei}  what the deuce
01[13:05] {@Threei}  come on
01[13:08] {@Threei}  nah
01[13:08] {@Threei}  not my day
[13:12] {jfjf64} see ya tomorrow v
[13:12] {jfjf64} ty
01[13:12] {@Threei}  take care jf
01[13:35] {@Threei}  (HK) US Sec State Kerry; Hopeful officials in Hong Kong will exercise restraint in handling protesters - China Foreign Min Wang: Protests in Hong Kong are internal, and other countries should respect China's sovereignty
01[13:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: TMO  .40 break hl
01[13:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[13:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:42] {@Threei}  here is my panic
01[13:42] {@Threei}  headfake day
[13:50] {nathan} hi gents
01[13:51] {@Threei}  hey nathan
[13:51] {nathan} is logix back again 3i?
01[13:51] {@Threei}  my quotes work
[13:51] {nathan} ok
01[13:51] {@Threei}  not sure about safety of order submitting
[13:52] {nathan} yeah that what i was wondering
01[14:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .55 break
01[14:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[14:02] {@Threei}  change to .45 break
01[14:04] {@Threei}  WHO issues update on Ebola death toll and case count; deaths reached 3.34K from 7.18K cases
01[14:07] {@Threei}  not sure my quites are right
01[14:07] {@Threei}  quotes
01[14:07] {@Threei}  where is VXX?
[14:08] {nemo} we know your typing isn't
[14:08] {nemo} 32.35
[14:08] {nemo} .36
[14:08] {RonS} 32.38
[14:08] {RonS} 36
[14:08] {RonS} 34
01[14:08] {@Threei}  stuck...
01[14:08] {@Threei}  still .47 here
[14:12] {nemo} reboot Vad?
[14:13] {nemo} software anyway
01[14:15] {@Threei}  looks back
01[14:15] {@Threei}  just not sure I can trust it fully
01[14:16] {@Threei}  well, they warned it will be tough ride today
01[14:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SPY  .65 break
01[14:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[14:24] {@Threei}  I am totally not sure what happens, lol
01[14:24] {@Threei}  did it invalidate before triggering? I have weird prints
[14:25] {nemo} yes, barely
01[14:25] {@Threei}  in case it didn't, 1:1
[14:25] {nathan} I quit for today. seems to be quite inestable
[14:27] {nathan} cya tomorrow
01[14:28] {@Threei}  take care nathan
01[14:35] {@Threei}  VICL Ticks higher on circulation of link discussing the company's prior efforts to work on an Ebola vaccine, which it was working on a decade ago
01[14:44] {@Threei}  I am pretty sure VICL was in play once during one of these scares
[14:58] {troub} gotta run.take care all.
[15:11] {cosmo} could be getting skerry soon...
01[15:14] {@Threei}  not today...
01[15:14] {@Threei}  but yeah, market starts re-learning panic mode
[15:15] {cosmo} I wanna see a selling climax with a half hour to go in the day
[15:15] {cosmo} That would be in about 10 minutes if it were today
[15:16] {cosmo} but not today...
01[15:28] {@Threei}  bounce into eod
[15:30] {cosmo} lets hope
01[15:30] {@Threei}  here it goes
01[15:40] {@Threei}  break of .60 sdhould launch SPY into orbit
01[15:41] {@Threei}  here it flies
01[15:48] {@Threei}  and more
01[15:50] {@Threei}  OK guys, thank you
01[15:50] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:50] {cosmo} :)
[15:51] {cosmo} it needs more selling me thinks
[15:51] {cosmo} unless its a vaccine stock