Monday, October 24, 2011

Oct 24 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

5 calls, 4 wins and 1 stop sized at whole 7 cents. No complaints here. Let's also update the status of SVM swing trade: Now that we have made a new high, it's time to trail the stop for the balance of shares again, this time to $7.50, a bit under the last low of $7.67 made on 10/18. With $7.25 entry, it officially takes us in no lose territory. At $9.75 we have 1:2 risk/reward, and second partial is taken off the table. That cuts out initial shares to half, with new stop in the positive territory as indicated above.

Take a quick look also at our brief refreshment of the Europe situation and market reactions, 9:16 - 9:22

Session Time: Mon Oct 24 00:00:00 2011
[09:03] {ese} morning
[09:05] {RonS} good day everyone
[09:06] {ese} gm
[09:06] {Threei}  ese, ron :)
[09:07] {Threei}  nice news for SVM
[09:07] {swill} :)good morning
[09:07] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:10] {Threei}  An Obama administration official says President Barack Obama will announce new rules Monday to help homeowners with little or no equity in their homes refinance their mortgages to avoid foreclosures.
[09:10] {Threei}  The new program will apply to homeowners with federally guaranteed mortgages who are current on their payments. It cuts the cost of refinancing and removes caps for deeply underwater borrowers.
[09:10] {dino} gm all
[09:10] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {dino} from above, you can tell election is getting close
[09:14] {Threei}  my frst thought
[09:16] {Threei}  quite amazing to watch how the game is played, re: european news and market reactions
[09:16] {Threei}  every negative headline causes new surge of buying, if it's not an immediate collapse news,
[09:16] {Threei}  total musical chairs game,
[09:17] {Threei}  bulls are charging, but are willing to get out on a moment notice,
[09:17] {Threei}  that's why volumes are relatively thin, it's nothing more that "the game of the moment"
[09:18] {Threei}  killing naive shorts who think that the market must tank right away since perspective is so grim
[09:18] {Threei}  Very typical case of information-price divergence
[09:18] {dino} the game the game, nothing quite the same, all that really matters is the game
[09:19] {Threei}  eqzaktly
[09:19] {Threei}  The path from here then is:
[09:20] {Threei}  if Europe doesn't find the way to kick the can down the road, buyers of last days get out in rush,
[09:20] {Threei}  slower ones get slaughtered
[09:20] {Threei}  new shorts will have practically no time to enter
[09:21] {Threei}  and move down will proceed with as few people on board as possible, in a very typical market fashion.
[09:21] {Threei}  If Europe does find that way, new crop of buyers will rush in,
[09:21] {Threei}  market will spike quickly, then drop sharply as pervious buyers exit into euphoria,
[09:22] {Threei}  and after shaking out weak hands, marhc up will resume, till next cluster of problems comes to attention.
[09:29] {Threei}  prepare half lot on FCX
[09:29] {Threei}  for a long on sharp drop
[09:30] {Threei}  quite possibly around 38 - 38.10
[09:30] {Threei}  if spikes instead, will look for a short
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break
[09:31] {Threei}  stop above .80
[09:32] {Threei}  half out .53
[09:32] {Threei}  stop to .75
[09:33] {Threei}  to .71
[09:34] {Threei}  to .65
[09:34] {Threei}  out .28
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[09:36] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .35 break
[09:37] {Threei}  opps, late
[09:37] {Threei}  see if pulls back in .30 - .35 zone
[09:38] {Threei}  ok, same setup
[09:38] {Threei}  stop under .25
[09:38] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[09:38] {Threei}  very nice of SLW to give second chance
[09:38] {Threei}  stop to .33
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .15
[09:41] {Threei}  if staysd under .25
[09:41] {Threei}  half lot let's do
[09:42] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:43] {patience} good morning
[09:43] {Threei}  SLW, scalpers win
[09:43] {Threei}  morning patience
[09:43] {Threei}  are you back on firm ground?
[09:45] {patience} back to the fall leaves in victoria  :)
[09:45] {Threei}  got some:
[09:47] {patience} beautiful vad, exactly what it looks like flying over victoria
[09:53] {Threei}  ugh
[09:53] {Threei}  couldn't find guts to short SLW .50 break
[09:53] {Threei}  whimp
[10:02] {Threei}  SVM swing trade update
[10:02] {Threei}
[10:05] {Threei} Long Setup:  NVDA  15 break
[10:06] {Threei}  either normal low with stop under .90
[10:06] {Threei}  or double under .94
[10:06] {Threei}  low = lot
[10:07] {Threei}  1:1 for big shares plaers
[10:07] {Threei}  half out or scalp, your choice
[10:08] {Threei}  scalp type I who doesn't remember
[10:08] {Threei}  ese's favorite
[10:21] {Threei}  1:1 for normal lot players, 1:2 for big shares
[10:21] {Threei}  OK, you can breathe now
[10:22] {ese} ese's charts are all buggared up this morning
[10:22] {Threei}  need qiotes?
[10:22] {ese} no quotes.......or candlesticks...coming out a dashes
[10:23] {Threei}  yikes
[10:23] {ese} no
[10:25] {dino} out nvda +.10 ty 3i
[10:25] {Threei}  welcome :)
[10:26] {dino} banks want 40% greek haircut on debt, eu wants 60%
[10:26] {Threei}  so, they'll agree on 50
[10:26] {Threei}  the real question is, will it solve anything?
[10:27] {Threei}  'cause next thing we see is Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy say, how about OUR debt? No haircut for our creditors??
[10:33] {Threei}  starting hunt for RIMM reversal
[10:34] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .80 break half lot
[10:34] {Threei}  change to .85
[10:34] {Threei}  more aggressive
[10:35] {Threei}  stop abpve .90
[10:37] {Threei}  cover half here, .74
[10:38] {Threei}  stop to .86
[10:40] {Threei}  stop to .81
[10:43] {dino} sxci sm l .00
[10:43] {dino} out .50, +.50
[10:43] {Threei}  closed RIMM in full
[10:43] {Threei}  wtg dino
[10:43] {dino} lucky
[10:43] {Threei}  sure, me too
[10:44] {Threei}  4 out of 4
[10:55] {dino} .
[10:56] {Threei}  (EU) UK PM Cameron: A referendum in the UK towards EU membership would not be appropriate- Reminder: Earlier some members of the parliament have called for a referendum on membership
[11:10] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Fisher: Have successfully warded off deflation
[11:10] {Threei}  I'll say
[11:10] {Threei}  for 98 years already
[11:11] {Threei}  (SP) Spain Climate minister notes that the country will not pay more for solar panels in the EU as Italy has done
[11:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .90 break if stays above .80
[11:17] {RonS} unusual move ibm
[11:19] {Threei}  no news that I see on it
[11:19] {Threei}  techs are strong
[11:30] {Threei}  - EUR/USD tested session lows of 1.3823 on concerns that Germany and France would not be able to reach a deal on the EFSF at Wednesday's EU leader summit. There were vague rumors that the summit could be again postponed, but the EU Commission stated that it remained on course. EU Commissioner Juncker stated what many analysts had already predicted, namely that banks needed to prepare for 50-60% losses on Greek debt.
[11:31] {Threei}  look at tghe next line:
[11:31] {Threei}  The euro was off its worst level of the morning after the ECB increased the amount it settled in its government bond buying program to 4.5B from last week's 2.2B.
[11:31] {Threei}  unfrikingbelieavable
[11:34] {Threei}  RIMM of course invalidated
[11:56] {dino} vad, regarding this, once the hit is taken is it the same re-inflation trade? your thoughts.
[11:57] {Threei}  I really can't tell
[11:58] {Threei}  it looks this way on a surface, but I suspect it's a bit more complicated
[11:58] {Threei}  the thing that gives me a pause is:
[11:58] {Threei}  this hit is merely a hiccup on the way to much bigger hits
[11:59] {Threei}  relief for a day or week, just until the rst of underwater countries demand the same treatment
[12:00] {Threei}  so, it's not they can say: OK, this is over, now let's deal with more calm waters in a usual manner
[12:00] {Threei}  it's rather one hoop to jump through after another,
[12:00] {Threei}  and each one triggers a few new ones
[12:01] {Threei}  not even speaking of absence of "normal" inflation mechanism in euroland
[12:01] {Threei}  they very structure of their currency is so much more complicated,
[12:02] {Threei}  while printing in USA is a single entity decision (and even that becomes more difficult lately because of resistance of the masses),
[12:02] {cipher} sxci spike
[12:02] {Threei}  in Europe, it's backing of sovereign guarantors that is necessary for EU-wide printing
[12:02] {Threei}  and that became huge problem
[12:03] {dino} hmmmmmm, good points
[12:03] {Threei}  so no, if I had to answer this question with inromation I have today, I don't see normal "inflate our way out of this mess" as easy path forward
[12:05] {Threei}  not that they don't dream of it or won't try... :)
[12:06] {Threei}  I just don't see how they can do it given whole climate
[12:07] {dino} too many cooks, so to speak
[12:08] {Threei}  totally, yes
[12:08] {Threei}  and they each see different diashes as a result, with different ingredients
[12:09] {Threei}  and cook for different clients
[12:09] {Threei}  btw, remember, a week or so ago I opined that, however strange it looks, but US is likely come on top as a result of this whole mess
[12:10] {Threei}  look at this:
[12:10] {Threei}
[12:12] {ese} cya hopefully tomorrow........still having tech issues here
[12:12] {Threei}  take care ese
[12:12] {Threei}  tell your borker ee don't like like him
[12:12] {Threei}  ee = we
[12:33] {dino} hopefuuly they are right in that article 3i. that shale gas is all around me
[12:33] {Threei}  I feel it's only the beginning
[12:34] {Threei}  there is a lot going for US, even though it's not obvious yet
[12:34] {dino} throw out obama and more positive would come
[12:35] {Threei}  he is just a symptom...
[12:35] {Threei}  whole "let's help all who wasn't fortunate enough to make decent money" must go
[12:36] {dino} yes
[12:36] {Threei}  help must be limited to those who can't make it for objective reasons
[12:36] {Threei}  health, age
[12:37] {Threei}  the rest is just plain wrong as it kills motivation
[12:42] {dino} 11895 gap filled
[12:42] {Threei}  rodl
[12:42] {Threei}  rofl
[12:42] {Threei}  "The only thing we have to fear, is Italy itself."
[12:43] {dino} 1234 as well
[12:44] {Threei}  (EU) German Chancellor Merkel is said to have told members of parliament that EFSF will be leveraged up to over 1T, haircuts on Greek debt to be 50-60% - financial press
[12:44] {Threei}  - Recapitalization program said to be around 100B; with Germany banks estimated to need 5.5B
[12:44] {swill} I like that one Vad. lol
[12:44] {Threei}  yeah, that was funny :)
[12:45] {Threei}  OK, I am dying of laughter here
[12:45] {Threei}  read the last line
[12:45] {Threei}  and join me:
[12:45] {Threei}  (IT) Italy PM Berlusconi: There is no reason to fear the solidity of Italy's finances; has a firm position on the crisis for the next EU summit
[12:45] {Threei}  - Banking problem is primarily a French and Germany issue.
[12:45] {Threei}  get this?? Italy says banking problem is a French and Germany issue
[12:46] {swill} lol
[12:48] {Threei}  the push for less sovereignity continues:
[12:48] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Trichet: Case for a European finance ministry is growing; authorities should be given more policy role if a member state continues to underperform its targets
[12:48] {Threei}  - Notes that provided aid to states under stress is justified; EMU states should review each other's budgets
[13:28] {Threei}  ugh
[13:28] {Threei}  missed IBM .60 break
[14:38] {swill} oh well 4 of 5 is good
[14:38] {Threei}  4 of 4
[14:38] {Threei}  5th never took place :)
[14:39] {swill} lol
[14:53] {swill} sorry, bad memory
[14:54] {dino}  leaving lots of gaps below
[14:57] {Threei}  no worry, on Wed they anounce Europe is no more and one gap will cover all those
[14:58] {dino} thats what i am wondering
[15:03] {dino} we are up 17% since 10/04 low
[15:05] {Threei}  lol, they'll kill me today with these jokster headlines
[15:05] {Threei}  (IT) Italy Cabinet session ends without any decisions being taken - world press
[15:05] {Threei}  sure - why would they need toi decide anything if banking problems are Germany and France issue?
[15:16] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .35 break
[15:16] {Threei}  stop .41
[15:16] {Threei}  ridiculously tight
[15:17] {dino} in
[15:20] {Threei}  ok RIMM... time to roll over and die
[15:27] {Threei}  that's right, good boy
[15:38] {dino} stop
[15:38] {Threei}  oh well
[15:38] {Threei}  now it's 4 out of 5
[15:38] {Threei}  formally it reaxched 1:1 but it was ridiculous to play for 5 cents
[15:39] {dino} wanted a dime
[15:39] {Threei}  me too
[15:48] {Threei}  slow climb day... miracle that we made any money at all, lol
[15:49] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:49] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tmorrow
[15:49] {swill} thank you

[15:52] {dino} thx all, gn
[15:56] {patience} ty vad, good day for me, back to my daily, one trade on gdx
[15:56] {Threei}  :)
[15:58] {larisa} bye :)