Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts

Monday, October 24, 2011

Oct 24 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

5 calls, 4 wins and 1 stop sized at whole 7 cents. No complaints here. Let's also update the status of SVM swing trade: Now that we have made a new high, it's time to trail the stop for the balance of shares again, this time to $7.50, a bit under the last low of $7.67 made on 10/18. With $7.25 entry, it officially takes us in no lose territory. At $9.75 we have 1:2 risk/reward, and second partial is taken off the table. That cuts out initial shares to half, with new stop in the positive territory as indicated above.


Take a quick look also at our brief refreshment of the Europe situation and market reactions, 9:16 - 9:22

Session Time: Mon Oct 24 00:00:00 2011
[09:03] {ese} morning
[09:05] {RonS} good day everyone
[09:06] {ese} gm
[09:06] {Threei}  ese, ron :)
[09:07] {Threei}  nice news for SVM
[09:07] {swill} :)good morning
[09:07] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:10] {Threei}  An Obama administration official says President Barack Obama will announce new rules Monday to help homeowners with little or no equity in their homes refinance their mortgages to avoid foreclosures.
[09:10] {Threei}  The new program will apply to homeowners with federally guaranteed mortgages who are current on their payments. It cuts the cost of refinancing and removes caps for deeply underwater borrowers.
[09:10] {dino} gm all
[09:10] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {dino} from above, you can tell election is getting close
[09:14] {Threei}  my frst thought
[09:16] {Threei}  quite amazing to watch how the game is played, re: european news and market reactions
[09:16] {Threei}  every negative headline causes new surge of buying, if it's not an immediate collapse news,
[09:16] {Threei}  total musical chairs game,
[09:17] {Threei}  bulls are charging, but are willing to get out on a moment notice,
[09:17] {Threei}  that's why volumes are relatively thin, it's nothing more that "the game of the moment"
[09:18] {Threei}  killing naive shorts who think that the market must tank right away since perspective is so grim
[09:18] {Threei}  Very typical case of information-price divergence
[09:18] {dino} the game the game, nothing quite the same, all that really matters is the game
[09:19] {Threei}  eqzaktly
[09:19] {Threei}  The path from here then is:
[09:20] {Threei}  if Europe doesn't find the way to kick the can down the road, buyers of last days get out in rush,
[09:20] {Threei}  slower ones get slaughtered
[09:20] {Threei}  new shorts will have practically no time to enter
[09:21] {Threei}  and move down will proceed with as few people on board as possible, in a very typical market fashion.
[09:21] {Threei}  If Europe does find that way, new crop of buyers will rush in,
[09:21] {Threei}  market will spike quickly, then drop sharply as pervious buyers exit into euphoria,
[09:22] {Threei}  and after shaking out weak hands, marhc up will resume, till next cluster of problems comes to attention.
[09:29] {Threei}  prepare half lot on FCX
[09:29] {Threei}  for a long on sharp drop
[09:30] {Threei}  quite possibly around 38 - 38.10
[09:30] {Threei}  if spikes instead, will look for a short
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break
[09:31] {Threei}  stop above .80
[09:32] {Threei}  half out .53
[09:32] {Threei}  stop to .75
[09:33] {Threei}  to .71
[09:34] {Threei}  to .65
[09:34] {Threei}  out .28
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[09:36] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .35 break
[09:37] {Threei}  opps, late
[09:37] {Threei}  see if pulls back in .30 - .35 zone
[09:38] {Threei}  ok, same setup
[09:38] {Threei}  stop under .25
[09:38] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[09:38] {Threei}  very nice of SLW to give second chance
[09:38] {Threei}  stop to .33
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .15
[09:41] {Threei}  if staysd under .25
[09:41] {Threei}  half lot let's do
[09:42] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:43] {patience} good morning
[09:43] {Threei}  SLW, scalpers win
[09:43] {Threei}  morning patience
[09:43] {Threei}  are you back on firm ground?
[09:45] {patience} back to the fall leaves in victoria  :)
[09:45] {Threei}  got some: http://photography.realitytrader.com/2011/10/fall-is-back-again.html
[09:47] {patience} beautiful vad, exactly what it looks like flying over victoria
[09:53] {Threei}  ugh
[09:53] {Threei}  couldn't find guts to short SLW .50 break
[09:53] {Threei}  whimp
[10:02] {Threei}  SVM swing trade update
[10:02] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/DdhnY
[10:05] {Threei} Long Setup:  NVDA  15 break
[10:06] {Threei}  either normal low with stop under .90
[10:06] {Threei}  or double under .94
[10:06] {Threei}  low = lot
[10:07] {Threei}  1:1 for big shares plaers
[10:07] {Threei}  half out or scalp, your choice
[10:08] {Threei}  scalp type I who doesn't remember
[10:08] {Threei}  ese's favorite
[10:21] {Threei}  1:1 for normal lot players, 1:2 for big shares
[10:21] {Threei}  OK, you can breathe now
[10:22] {ese} ese's charts are all buggared up this morning
[10:22] {Threei}  need qiotes?
[10:22] {ese} no quotes.......or candlesticks...coming out a dashes
[10:23] {Threei}  yikes
[10:23] {ese} no
[10:25] {dino} out nvda +.10 ty 3i
[10:25] {Threei}  welcome :)
[10:26] {dino} banks want 40% greek haircut on debt, eu wants 60%
[10:26] {Threei}  so, they'll agree on 50
[10:26] {Threei}  the real question is, will it solve anything?
[10:27] {Threei}  'cause next thing we see is Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy say, how about OUR debt? No haircut for our creditors??
[10:33] {Threei}  starting hunt for RIMM reversal
[10:34] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .80 break half lot
[10:34] {Threei}  change to .85
[10:34] {Threei}  more aggressive
[10:35] {Threei}  stop abpve .90
[10:37] {Threei}  cover half here, .74
[10:38] {Threei}  stop to .86
[10:40] {Threei}  stop to .81
[10:43] {dino} sxci sm l .00
[10:43] {dino} out .50, +.50
[10:43] {Threei}  closed RIMM in full
[10:43] {Threei}  wtg dino
[10:43] {dino} lucky
[10:43] {Threei}  sure, me too
[10:44] {Threei}  4 out of 4
[10:55] {dino} .
[10:56] {Threei}  (EU) UK PM Cameron: A referendum in the UK towards EU membership would not be appropriate- Reminder: Earlier some members of the parliament have called for a referendum on membership
[11:10] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Fisher: Have successfully warded off deflation
[11:10] {Threei}  I'll say
[11:10] {Threei}  for 98 years already
[11:11] {Threei}  (SP) Spain Climate minister notes that the country will not pay more for solar panels in the EU as Italy has done
[11:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .90 break if stays above .80
[11:17] {RonS} unusual move ibm
[11:19] {Threei}  no news that I see on it
[11:19] {Threei}  techs are strong
[11:30] {Threei}  - EUR/USD tested session lows of 1.3823 on concerns that Germany and France would not be able to reach a deal on the EFSF at Wednesday's EU leader summit. There were vague rumors that the summit could be again postponed, but the EU Commission stated that it remained on course. EU Commissioner Juncker stated what many analysts had already predicted, namely that banks needed to prepare for 50-60% losses on Greek debt.
[11:31] {Threei}  look at tghe next line:
[11:31] {Threei}  The euro was off its worst level of the morning after the ECB increased the amount it settled in its government bond buying program to 4.5B from last week's 2.2B.
[11:31] {Threei}  unfrikingbelieavable
[11:34] {Threei}  RIMM of course invalidated
[11:56] {dino} vad, regarding this, once the hit is taken is it the same re-inflation trade? your thoughts.
[11:57] {Threei}  I really can't tell
[11:58] {Threei}  it looks this way on a surface, but I suspect it's a bit more complicated
[11:58] {Threei}  the thing that gives me a pause is:
[11:58] {Threei}  this hit is merely a hiccup on the way to much bigger hits
[11:59] {Threei}  relief for a day or week, just until the rst of underwater countries demand the same treatment
[12:00] {Threei}  so, it's not they can say: OK, this is over, now let's deal with more calm waters in a usual manner
[12:00] {Threei}  it's rather one hoop to jump through after another,
[12:00] {Threei}  and each one triggers a few new ones
[12:01] {Threei}  not even speaking of absence of "normal" inflation mechanism in euroland
[12:01] {Threei}  they very structure of their currency is so much more complicated,
[12:02] {Threei}  while printing in USA is a single entity decision (and even that becomes more difficult lately because of resistance of the masses),
[12:02] {cipher} sxci spike
[12:02] {Threei}  in Europe, it's backing of sovereign guarantors that is necessary for EU-wide printing
[12:02] {Threei}  and that became huge problem
[12:03] {dino} hmmmmmm, good points
[12:03] {Threei}  so no, if I had to answer this question with inromation I have today, I don't see normal "inflate our way out of this mess" as easy path forward
[12:05] {Threei}  not that they don't dream of it or won't try... :)
[12:06] {Threei}  I just don't see how they can do it given whole climate
[12:07] {dino} too many cooks, so to speak
[12:08] {Threei}  totally, yes
[12:08] {Threei}  and they each see different diashes as a result, with different ingredients
[12:09] {Threei}  and cook for different clients
[12:09] {Threei}  btw, remember, a week or so ago I opined that, however strange it looks, but US is likely come on top as a result of this whole mess
[12:10] {Threei}  look at this:
[12:10] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/MBOi5
[12:12] {ese} cya hopefully tomorrow........still having tech issues here
[12:12] {Threei}  take care ese
[12:12] {Threei}  tell your borker ee don't like like him
[12:12] {Threei}  ee = we
[12:33] {dino} hopefuuly they are right in that article 3i. that shale gas is all around me
[12:33] {Threei}  I feel it's only the beginning
[12:34] {Threei}  there is a lot going for US, even though it's not obvious yet
[12:34] {dino} throw out obama and more positive would come
[12:35] {Threei}  he is just a symptom...
[12:35] {Threei}  whole "let's help all who wasn't fortunate enough to make decent money" must go
[12:36] {dino} yes
[12:36] {Threei}  help must be limited to those who can't make it for objective reasons
[12:36] {Threei}  health, age
[12:37] {Threei}  the rest is just plain wrong as it kills motivation
[12:42] {dino} 11895 gap filled
[12:42] {Threei}  rodl
[12:42] {Threei}  rofl
[12:42] {Threei}  "The only thing we have to fear, is Italy itself."
[12:43] {dino} 1234 as well
[12:44] {Threei}  (EU) German Chancellor Merkel is said to have told members of parliament that EFSF will be leveraged up to over 1T, haircuts on Greek debt to be 50-60% - financial press
[12:44] {Threei}  - Recapitalization program said to be around 100B; with Germany banks estimated to need 5.5B
[12:44] {swill} I like that one Vad. lol
[12:44] {Threei}  yeah, that was funny :)
[12:45] {Threei}  OK, I am dying of laughter here
[12:45] {Threei}  read the last line
[12:45] {Threei}  and join me:
[12:45] {Threei}  (IT) Italy PM Berlusconi: There is no reason to fear the solidity of Italy's finances; has a firm position on the crisis for the next EU summit
[12:45] {Threei}  - Banking problem is primarily a French and Germany issue.
[12:45] {Threei}  get this?? Italy says banking problem is a French and Germany issue
[12:46] {swill} lol
[12:48] {Threei}  the push for less sovereignity continues:
[12:48] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Trichet: Case for a European finance ministry is growing; authorities should be given more policy role if a member state continues to underperform its targets
[12:48] {Threei}  - Notes that provided aid to states under stress is justified; EMU states should review each other's budgets
[13:28] {Threei}  ugh
[13:28] {Threei}  missed IBM .60 break
[14:38] {swill} oh well 4 of 5 is good
[14:38] {Threei}  4 of 4
[14:38] {Threei}  5th never took place :)
[14:39] {swill} lol
[14:53] {swill} sorry, bad memory
[14:54] {dino}  leaving lots of gaps below
[14:57] {Threei}  no worry, on Wed they anounce Europe is no more and one gap will cover all those
[14:58] {dino} thats what i am wondering
[15:03] {dino} we are up 17% since 10/04 low
[15:05] {Threei}  lol, they'll kill me today with these jokster headlines
[15:05] {Threei}  (IT) Italy Cabinet session ends without any decisions being taken - world press
[15:05] {Threei}  sure - why would they need toi decide anything if banking problems are Germany and France issue?
[15:16] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .35 break
[15:16] {Threei}  stop .41
[15:16] {Threei}  ridiculously tight
[15:17] {dino} in
[15:20] {Threei}  ok RIMM... time to roll over and die
[15:27] {Threei}  that's right, good boy
[15:38] {dino} stop
[15:38] {Threei}  oh well
[15:38] {Threei}  now it's 4 out of 5
[15:38] {Threei}  formally it reaxched 1:1 but it was ridiculous to play for 5 cents
[15:39] {dino} wanted a dime
[15:39] {Threei}  me too
[15:48] {Threei}  slow climb day... miracle that we made any money at all, lol
[15:49] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:49] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tmorrow
[15:49] {swill} thank you

[15:52] {dino} thx all, gn
[15:56] {patience} ty vad, good day for me, back to my daily, one trade on gdx
[15:56] {Threei}  :)
[15:58] {larisa} bye :)


Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Oct 19 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Another great day with a lot of nice winning trades ranging from 1:1 to 1:4. As soon as market gets out of that "slow creep-up" mode, we are in our element.


Session Time: Wed Oct 19 00:00:00 2011
[08:30] {Threei}  US) SEPT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E
[08:30] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT HOUSING STARTS: 658K V 590KE; BUILDING PERMITS: 594K V 610KE
[08:48] {Threei}  ok... sit around, don't sit around, at some point gotta start (as huge drunkard at Russian wedding said before hitting sitting next to him in the ear)
[08:50] {swill} gentlemen, start your engines
[08:51] {Threei}  shhhhh... for nemo it's a signal to start pouring whiskey in his throat as a fuel
[08:51] {nemo} what do you have one of those biodiesel's running on cooking fat, swill?
[08:51] {nemo} vodka
[08:51] {swill} lol
[08:53] {swill} caffeen for me
[08:53] {Threei}  well, per ese caffein works too - when taken intravenously
[08:54] {swill} have you seen the movie, limitless.  Like that
[08:54] {Threei}  no... new one?
[08:54] {swill} four weeks ago I think
[08:56] {Threei}  unless we are talking new Bond movie, I am usually running with big delay on new releases... :)
[08:57] {swill} I'll loan it to you
[08:58] {Threei}  thanks... I'll whistle when ready :)
[08:58] {Threei}  or scream
[08:58] {swill} lol
[08:59] {Threei}  http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=276100932424589&set=a.237133656321317.63196.235739863127363&type=1&theater
[09:01] {swill} seems they will have slow growth there
[09:02] {Threei}  slow growth?
[09:02] {Threei}  rofl
[09:02] {Threei}  that's one way to name a crash
[09:02] {swill} lol
[09:03] {swill} btw, what set up were you using yesterday vad?
[09:03] {Threei}  ?
[09:04] {Threei}  for what?
[09:04] {swill} did you mention a pattern in the chat room
[09:04] {Threei}  not sure what you mean... there were 5 calls
[09:05] {Threei}  each was different setup
[09:05] {swill} ok, I missunderstood.  thanks
[09:07] {ese} morning
[09:07] {Threei}  ese, we were just talking about you
[09:08] {Threei}  [08:53] {swill} caffeen for me
[09:08] {Threei}  [08:53] {Threei} well, per ese caffein works too - when taken intravenously
[09:08] {ese} oh oh
[09:09] {ese} ya .....what can i say....i like keep a hypodermic around for cafine injection in the morning
[09:09] {swill} lol
[09:16] {dino} gm all
[09:16] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:22] {ese} d
[09:26] {RonS} hello everyone...
[09:27] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:28] {_tarkus62} gm all
[09:28] {Threei}  tarkus :)
[09:28] {Threei}  targeting FCX for short
[09:28] {Threei}  half lot
[09:28] {larisa} gm :)
[09:28] {_tarkus62} k cool
[09:28] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:29] {ese} tarkus buddy.......i shop at your stores alot.......
[09:29] {ese} opps sorry thats target.........my mistake
[09:29] {_tarkus62} lol
[09:30] {ese} welcome to the board.........
[09:30] {Threei}  SLW too
[09:30] {Threei}  FCX bounces
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[09:31] {Threei}  invalidated of course
[09:31] {nemo} hehehehehe
[09:31] {Threei}  change to .80
[09:32] {Threei}  .90
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under 36
[09:32] {Threei}  got .87
[09:33] {Threei}  half out
[09:33] {Threei}  .67
[09:33] {Threei}  out in full
[09:33] {Threei}  .45
[09:33] {Threei}  whew
[09:34] {dino} gj
[09:34] {Threei}  missed SLW meanwhile
[09:34] {cipher} wow
[09:34] {_tarkus62} nice
[09:34] {cipher} thx 3i
[09:34] {Threei}  welcome sir
[09:34] {Threei}  awww, too soon
[09:34] {Threei}  look at this
[09:34] {thomcbell} molto bene Three
[09:34] {Threei}  :)
[09:35] {cipher} rollecoaster
[09:35] {cipher} thank god for hot keys
[09:36] {Threei}  ugh SLW
[09:36] {Threei}  this one seriously got away
[09:36] {Threei}  ok, don't get scared but
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  35 break
[09:36] {Threei}  half lot
[09:37] {Threei}  invalidated for now but will stay on radar
[09:37] {dino} aem sm l .65
[09:37] {Threei}  actually... maybe aggressive entry
[09:37] {Threei}  .10 break
[09:37] {Threei}  stop above .20
[09:38] {Threei}  invaidated too
[09:38] {dino} stop -.22
[09:40] {dino} rinsed
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: WFC  .10 break
[09:40] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[09:41] {Threei}  target 1:2, two partials
[09:41] {Threei}  1:1
[09:42] {Threei}  stop to .11 of course
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .95
[09:43] {Threei}  if stays above .85
[09:45] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:45] {Threei}  WFC target hit
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .80 break
[09:49] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[09:50] {Threei}  let's trail to .74
[09:50] {Threei}  looks good but it's RIMM, want to keep it on a tight leash
[09:52] {Threei}  market sharp red bar
[09:52] {Threei}  out
[09:53] {Threei} Short Setup: GS  104 break
[09:53] {Threei}  small shares
[09:53] {Threei}  stop above .20
[09:53] {Threei}  no worky
[09:54] {Threei}  crap, we missed that FCX 35 short
[09:54] {dino} aem capit
[09:55] {RonS} flood and mine closing...
[09:55] {RonS} not going near it
[09:56] {cipher} aem good one thx dino!
[09:56] {dino} gj
[09:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  45 break
[09:58] {Threei}  if stays above .90
[09:58] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:58] {Threei}  3 partials
[09:59] {Threei}  1:1
[09:59] {Threei}  stop to .98
[09:59] {dino} cma sm l .60
[10:00] {Threei}  1:2
[10:00] {Threei}  % of deaf, blind and stupid if determined:
[10:00] {Threei}  is
[10:00] {Threei}  6% Rate U.S. Economy As Good or Excellent
[10:01] {dino} cma stop -.12
[10:01] {cipher} wow AEM
[10:02] {Threei}  done with LVS
[10:02] {cipher} stepping out... need to change my diapers :-)
[10:02] {Threei}  lol
[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break half lot
[10:04] {Threei}  stop above .70
[10:04] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .50 break
[10:04] {Threei}  no go
[10:05] {ese} dino you out of aem
[10:07] {dino} no
[10:07] {Threei}  wow LVS
[10:07] {Threei}  ca I have mulligan?
[10:08] {dino} got out long time ago 48.43
[10:08] {dino} did not re enter yet
[10:08] {dino} cma rinsed
[10:09] {RonS} in cma .52 ave
[10:10] {RonS} target .94
[10:12] {RonS} out .94 +.42 ese size...u da man dino
[10:13] {dino} wtg
[10:15] {nemo} apkt
[10:15] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  35 break
[10:16] {Threei}  stop above .10
[10:16] {Threei}  target 1:2, 1:3
[10:18] {ese} nice one ron!!!!!!
[10:18] {Threei}  let's scratch it here
[10:18] {Threei}  yup
[10:18] {Threei}  something didn't look right
[10:21] {ese} L STX .19
[10:24] {Threei}  wow
[10:24] {ese} i'll say......6th sense there vad
[10:26] {dino} csh l break .00
[10:27] {ese} stx 1/2 out .31 +.12
[10:27] {dino} nxpi l .65
[10:30] {Threei}  *DOE CRUDE: -4.73M V +1.5ME; GASOLINE: -3.3M V -1.5ME; DISTILLATE: -4.27M V -1.5ME; UTILIZATION: 83.1% V 83.6%E
[10:31] {ese} out stx full .46 +.27....good enough  1k/1k ron
[10:31] {dino} gj
[10:31] {ese} tks
[10:32] {ese} am eyeing aem
[10:35] {dino} out nxpi +.03
[10:35] {cipher} long or short ese?
[10:40] {ese} am thinkin long
[10:40] {ese} depends on this bounce
[10:41] {ese} classic dino in at .00 maybe
[10:42] {ese} in .01 aem
[10:42] {cipher} nice
[10:43] {ese} out 1/2 avg .21
[10:43] {ese} break even balance
[10:44] {ese} stop to .15
[10:44] {dino} gj
[10:44] {ese} .20
[10:45] {ese} daaaaaaaaaa stopped .19 +.18
[10:45] {RonS} nice management...gj
[10:46] {Threei}  very
[10:46] {Threei}  refined way to trade
[10:46] {ese} must apologise that was not classic dino........his would have been +1.50
[10:46] {dino} not today,getting rinsed alot
[10:46] {Threei}  well, that's the difference between man and dinosaur... SIZE!
[10:46] {dino} thats what she said
[10:46] {RonS} ya but there is dino size, then there is ese size
[10:47] {RonS} lol
[10:47] {ese} that went 1k/1k ......no biggie
[10:48] {ese} STX still staying strong may go in there again sm
[10:48] {RonS} ...freakin 1%'er...
[10:49] {Threei}  lol
[10:49] {ese} ya but don't forget.......these thing can go against ya faster big time
[10:50] {dino} cma l .55
[10:50] {RonS} true 'dat...'specially a mining stock w/ a closed flooded mine
[10:50] {ese} definite;ly
[10:52] {RonS} btw for canuckian education:  true 'dat is a cajun expression
[10:52] {ese} like i said before....it's just cruise control these days....am not likely to be doing 10k/15k like iwas doing3 years ago......chuck a dart at a stock.....thats the one going up
[10:53] {dino} you're a piece of work ese
[10:53] {ese} spring 08/09? hmmmmm can't remember
[10:53] {RonS} ...and fwiw cajuns are French Arcadians captured and transported to Lousiana by the Bristish in the early 18th century
[10:54] {Threei}  Ron... this is slippery slope: a few days more and you are going to start speaking Swahili with us
[10:54] {RonS} ...that's the main reason Louisiana is so weird
[10:54] {ese} I shoulda stayed there.......would have had a better chance at playing music for a living in New Orleans
[10:55] {dino} we all have shoulda's
[10:55] {RonS} for me plus woulda's and shoulda's
[10:55] {ese} dats fur shuah
[10:55] {RonS} sorry coulda's
[10:57] {ese} ya like.....I shoulda made to Mertle to golf with dino
[10:57] {ese} thats still on the hit list
[10:58] {dino} ;)
[10:58] {dino} cma stop -.09
[10:59] {ese} gotta do that before my shoulders can't turn a full 90 degrees to hit a golf ball prpperly
[11:00] {RonS} seen many codgers that does not hurt their game much
[11:00] {dino} too much tequila on this last trip, was hurting couple days
[11:01] {dino} air pocket drop
[11:01] {dino} wtf cma rinsed again, that makes 3
[11:03] {RonS} dunno if i will play it but knl reported great qtr and look...
[11:05] {dino} think we have to
[11:08] {RonS} At least 14 police officers hospitalized with injuries in clashes with Greek demonstrators
[11:09] {nemo} funny, width of my window breaks up the words so it says "clashes with Greek demons"
[11:09] {dino} lol
[11:09] {dino} knl l .55
[11:17] {nemo} sina
[11:18] {RonS} sohu
[11:18] {RonS} chinese burrito stock...dang, etc
[11:21] {dino} knl stopped, sheesh
[11:24] {Threei}  EU's Van Rompuy: might have to consider changing unanimity rules for making euro zone decisions; all EMU countries should yield some sovereignty as part of greater integration
[11:24] {Threei}  heh
[11:24] {dino} lol
[11:24] {dino} lets see that pass a vote
[11:24] {RonS} these guys chewing peyote over there?
[11:24] {nemo} WHERE???
[11:25] {ese} just dropped the kids off at school and now I gotta go.....cya tomorrow
[11:26] {Threei}  take care ese
[11:26] {dino} cya ese gj
[11:28] {dino} last try cma sm l .39
[11:38] {RonS} sm l knl .93
[11:38] {cipher} me too in knl .95
[11:40] {cipher} stopped
[11:41] {dino} sm l .76 knl
[11:46] {dino} cma to flat
[11:56] {dino} knl stopped.
[11:56] {dino} taking a break, i suck today
[11:59] {cipher} l knl .12
[12:00] {cipher} out partial .39
[12:03] {Threei}  nice
[12:05] {cipher} out another partial at .49
[12:06] {RonS} knl l .40 ave
[12:06] {Threei}  getting back in the groove, cipher :)
[12:07] {cipher} seems like it
[12:10] {cipher} misjudged my last exit knl only got 100 filled at .60
[12:13] {cipher} here we go out rest +.48
[12:13] {Threei}  wtg
[12:13] {dino} apkt sm l .00
[12:14] {dino} wtg cipher
[12:14] {cipher} thx
[12:18] {cipher} first positive day for me
[12:18] {RonS} out knl .68 +.28 ese size
[12:18] {cipher} I will leave while ahead
[12:18] {cipher} take care cu tomorrow
[12:19] {RonS} cya cipher and thanks...best day in months for me...
[12:19] {dino} cya cipher
[12:20] {Threei}  take care cipher, gj
[12:20] {Threei}  not bad, a few days after starting out
[12:39] {Threei}  declaration draft by OWS says:
[12:39] {Threei}  4. A complete lifetime ban on accepting all gifts, services, money, directly or indirectly, to any elected or appointed federal officials or their immediate family members, from any person, corporation, union or other entity that the public official was charged to regulate while in office.
[12:40] {Threei}  I understand President will be forever banned from accepting a bottle of wine for his birthday from anyone
[12:40] {Threei}  since he regulates whole USA population, in a sense
[12:42] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[12:48] {Threei}  come on .60, hold
[12:53] {Threei}  no go
[12:53] {dino} aqpkt stop -.21
[12:54] {dino} apkt
[12:57] {RonS} fl rumor...
[12:58] {dino} f'ing rinses, apkt makes 4
[13:03] {Threei}  https://sites.google.com/site/the99percentdeclaration/
[13:04] {Threei}  incredibly eclectic mix of correct, naive, unworkable and idiotic
[13:11] {dino} apkt rinses me and runs .70. wtf
[13:20] {Threei}  (EU) EFSF technical discussions now centering around purchases of collateral for guarantees, after legal experts say direct guarantees are not possible - financial press
[13:20] {RonS} who is riding and who is driving?  :  WSJ: EU Lawyers Have Rejected Direct EFSF Guarantees
[13:20] {Threei}  this all is so wrong...
[13:21] {Threei}  it's like if you find yourself on the wrong road, you continue driving further with oncreased spped instead of turning back
[13:21] {Threei}  and hope it will get you where you need to be
[13:22] {Threei}  this course of action got you there - reverse it, for pete's sake!
[13:22] {Threei}  why do more of what got you in troubles in the first place?
[13:28] {dino} rnow blood
[13:31] {RonS} pretty funny...from you bud 3i:  http://tinyurl.com/3mkc6vh
[13:34] {Threei}  heh
[13:34] {nemo} http://www.klfy.com/story/15717759/second-hand-dealer-law
[13:35] {RonS} hah...like anyone in LA pays any attention to the law...
[13:36] {dino} sina sm l .00
[13:38] {RonS} idiocy unleashed:  http://tinyurl.com/5wvr925
[13:40] {dino} stopped
[13:40] {RonS} starting to get a faz itch...copper -.11
[13:40] {dino} 5th rinse
[13:47] {Threei}  GR) Greece Parliament said to have begun voting process on supplemental austerity bill, ahead of final austerity vote expected on Thursday - financial press
[13:47] {Threei}  - REMINDER: Greece is in the midst of a 48-hour general strike in protest of the new austerity measures.
[13:55] {RonS} hearing beige book in 6 min
[14:00] {Threei}  yeah
[14:00] {Threei}  just started
[14:01] {Threei}  *(US) FED'S BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMY GREW AT A MODERATE AND SLIGHT PACE; COST PRESSURES EASING IN MOST REGIONS
[14:01] {Threei}  looong
[14:01] {Threei}  and useless
[14:04] {RonS} fidelity reported that sarkozy says bail fund expansion talks have stalled
[14:04] {RonS} look V
[14:04] {RonS} caw, caw
[14:07] {Threei}  what's woth it?
[14:07] {Threei}  I see no news
[14:08] {RonS} me either
[14:08] {dino} div raised
[14:08] {RonS} More Lawsuits Take Aim At Visa And MasterCard ATM Policies       10/19 11:36 AM
[14:08] {RonS} ??
[14:16] {RonS} v sm l .89
[14:16] {RonS} should say vsm l...one way or another...
[14:18] {RonS} out -.18
[14:27] {Threei}  hmmm
[14:27] {Threei}  why no news on wires
[14:27] {Threei}  re: fidelity
[14:27] {nemo} what happened
[14:27] {Threei}  as always... dino had to trip of the cord and unplug the market
[14:28] {dino} sorry
[14:28] {nemo} clumsy oaf!
[14:28] {dino} been that kind of day
[14:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[14:40] {Threei}  half lot
[14:43] {nemo} after that run I just couldn't...God bless ya
[14:43] {Threei}  half out
[14:43] {Threei}  stop to .48
[14:45] {Threei}  scalpers win
[15:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  51 break
[15:04] {Threei}  half lot
[15:05] {Threei}  stop under .90 or .85
[15:05] {Threei}  both are valid
[15:05] {Threei}  target .45
[15:06] {Threei}  half out .18
[15:06] {Threei}  stop to .95
[15:13] {RonS} sorry, stepped away...can't handle the chop
[15:25] {RonS} see youze tomorrow...have an appt...
[15:26] {Threei}  take care ron
[15:33] {nemo} mmmhhh bids higher than offers on tna
[15:35] {Threei}  INET seems to be having problems
[15:37] {nemo} wonder if they got hacked
[15:41] {Threei}  nice smacking
[15:56] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
[15:56] {Threei}  see you tomorrow

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Look Ahead: Three Kinds of Crash

                                                  Life never gets so bad that it can't get worse" 
                                                                                            - Solomon Short

Putting together pieces of mosaic gathered over last few months by observing both news headlines and market reactions, let me offer my view on the future big picture developments. Everyone has one, why not add another voice and see how reality matches the forecast (rather set of scenarios in my case but you get the idea). Want to say from the start - this is a forecast that I will be happy to be mistaken about.

We will break it by two distinctive parts - economy and market developments. Let's start with economy.

European Union is non-viable and not-salvageable entity. Its deep underlying problem is discrepancy between various aspects of union. It's a monetary union - but not fiscal. Economic - but not political. This patchwork creates situation where decisions are difficult to make and even more difficult to implement, and solutions help one member at the expense of another. Authorities would be happy to throw more money at the problem but taxpayers of one sovereign state are not keen on bailing out another - and those taxpayers are voters. Push for collateral and austerity threatens autonomy of a debtor - and taxpayers start rioting over there too. There is no third party that could bail it all out (rumors spiking now and then about Latin America or China lending money to EU is pure nonsense and if anything, show the degree of desperation). Thus, there are only two ways forward: crash or money printing. Are these two really two? Not in my view - money printing does nothing but stretches crash in time, turning it into slow motion crash. It's fine with authorities though if they can stretch it by decades - today's decision-makers leave the office till then. So, real choice is between three options, none of which is warm and fuzzy.

First is Crash Now. No printing, no bailouts, let's rip the band-aid off, take the (admittedly huge) pain and start healing and rebuilding, with lessons learned in mind. Probability of this? Well, only if enraged taxpayers/voters find the way to force the hand of their respective governments and abandon the attempts to save the union. No politician wants to preside over collapse ("Crash?? Not on my watch!"). Thus,

Second is some printing now, masked as bank recapitalization, insurance guarantees etc etc. As we were shown by Fed, there are many ways to create money out of thin air. If Powers That Be manage to agree among themselves and push some kind of package through their respective elected bodies before people take on the street in numbers impossible to ignore, this will postpone the crash a bit. Such solution is nothing but kicking the can down the road, and reality will catch up with fantasy of salvation once again (after all, the debt remains as unsustainable and it was, and even becomes worse). At that point political will to continue on that path runs out, and we face second variation: Crash Later. How much later? Well, depends on how much is printed. Odds? Feels to me, this is the most probable option.

Finally, third option is printing gradually over extended period of time. That would be politicians preferred way if they could find the way to do it quietly and as a trivial matter, under the radar so to speak. This is Crash in Slo Mo. Pity the savers; inflation tax forever.

One more aspect of the big picture is China (and Asia overall). My feel is, it's a whole new can of worms down the road. It's not in a focus of attention much at this point since European troubles are more imminent. China's turn is to come yet, and unsustainability of economy geared to supply the West which cuts off its demand and of putting money in ghost cities to keep people working and economy humming - unsustainability of all this is going to reveal itself at some point.


Let's move to the market side of the picture. How is it going to react in each of the scenarios? In the first one, Crash Now, it's will mirror the economy and crash with it. Second - Crash Later - is what market is betting on over last couple weeks by climbing in the face of grim news. If this option materializes, market will spike first in relief, then drop quickly reflecting the part of reaction built in already by this recent climb and killing later arrivals; then new news will overtake and new worries (or lack of such) will start influence the movement. Finally, third option (Slo Mo Crash) is what market will be most happy about, staging big long term rally, quite possibly to new all time highs. After all, inflation is not only tax - it's also a wealth transfer to those who has what to invest.

There. Hope life proves me wrong and things turn more rosy.

(For those who prefer Facebook, this post is mirrored here)