Showing posts with label Euro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Euro. Show all posts

Monday, October 24, 2011

Oct 24 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

5 calls, 4 wins and 1 stop sized at whole 7 cents. No complaints here. Let's also update the status of SVM swing trade: Now that we have made a new high, it's time to trail the stop for the balance of shares again, this time to $7.50, a bit under the last low of $7.67 made on 10/18. With $7.25 entry, it officially takes us in no lose territory. At $9.75 we have 1:2 risk/reward, and second partial is taken off the table. That cuts out initial shares to half, with new stop in the positive territory as indicated above.


Take a quick look also at our brief refreshment of the Europe situation and market reactions, 9:16 - 9:22

Session Time: Mon Oct 24 00:00:00 2011
[09:03] {ese} morning
[09:05] {RonS} good day everyone
[09:06] {ese} gm
[09:06] {Threei}  ese, ron :)
[09:07] {Threei}  nice news for SVM
[09:07] {swill} :)good morning
[09:07] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:10] {Threei}  An Obama administration official says President Barack Obama will announce new rules Monday to help homeowners with little or no equity in their homes refinance their mortgages to avoid foreclosures.
[09:10] {Threei}  The new program will apply to homeowners with federally guaranteed mortgages who are current on their payments. It cuts the cost of refinancing and removes caps for deeply underwater borrowers.
[09:10] {dino} gm all
[09:10] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {dino} from above, you can tell election is getting close
[09:14] {Threei}  my frst thought
[09:16] {Threei}  quite amazing to watch how the game is played, re: european news and market reactions
[09:16] {Threei}  every negative headline causes new surge of buying, if it's not an immediate collapse news,
[09:16] {Threei}  total musical chairs game,
[09:17] {Threei}  bulls are charging, but are willing to get out on a moment notice,
[09:17] {Threei}  that's why volumes are relatively thin, it's nothing more that "the game of the moment"
[09:18] {Threei}  killing naive shorts who think that the market must tank right away since perspective is so grim
[09:18] {Threei}  Very typical case of information-price divergence
[09:18] {dino} the game the game, nothing quite the same, all that really matters is the game
[09:19] {Threei}  eqzaktly
[09:19] {Threei}  The path from here then is:
[09:20] {Threei}  if Europe doesn't find the way to kick the can down the road, buyers of last days get out in rush,
[09:20] {Threei}  slower ones get slaughtered
[09:20] {Threei}  new shorts will have practically no time to enter
[09:21] {Threei}  and move down will proceed with as few people on board as possible, in a very typical market fashion.
[09:21] {Threei}  If Europe does find that way, new crop of buyers will rush in,
[09:21] {Threei}  market will spike quickly, then drop sharply as pervious buyers exit into euphoria,
[09:22] {Threei}  and after shaking out weak hands, marhc up will resume, till next cluster of problems comes to attention.
[09:29] {Threei}  prepare half lot on FCX
[09:29] {Threei}  for a long on sharp drop
[09:30] {Threei}  quite possibly around 38 - 38.10
[09:30] {Threei}  if spikes instead, will look for a short
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break
[09:31] {Threei}  stop above .80
[09:32] {Threei}  half out .53
[09:32] {Threei}  stop to .75
[09:33] {Threei}  to .71
[09:34] {Threei}  to .65
[09:34] {Threei}  out .28
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[09:36] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .35 break
[09:37] {Threei}  opps, late
[09:37] {Threei}  see if pulls back in .30 - .35 zone
[09:38] {Threei}  ok, same setup
[09:38] {Threei}  stop under .25
[09:38] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[09:38] {Threei}  very nice of SLW to give second chance
[09:38] {Threei}  stop to .33
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .15
[09:41] {Threei}  if staysd under .25
[09:41] {Threei}  half lot let's do
[09:42] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:43] {patience} good morning
[09:43] {Threei}  SLW, scalpers win
[09:43] {Threei}  morning patience
[09:43] {Threei}  are you back on firm ground?
[09:45] {patience} back to the fall leaves in victoria  :)
[09:45] {Threei}  got some: http://photography.realitytrader.com/2011/10/fall-is-back-again.html
[09:47] {patience} beautiful vad, exactly what it looks like flying over victoria
[09:53] {Threei}  ugh
[09:53] {Threei}  couldn't find guts to short SLW .50 break
[09:53] {Threei}  whimp
[10:02] {Threei}  SVM swing trade update
[10:02] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/DdhnY
[10:05] {Threei} Long Setup:  NVDA  15 break
[10:06] {Threei}  either normal low with stop under .90
[10:06] {Threei}  or double under .94
[10:06] {Threei}  low = lot
[10:07] {Threei}  1:1 for big shares plaers
[10:07] {Threei}  half out or scalp, your choice
[10:08] {Threei}  scalp type I who doesn't remember
[10:08] {Threei}  ese's favorite
[10:21] {Threei}  1:1 for normal lot players, 1:2 for big shares
[10:21] {Threei}  OK, you can breathe now
[10:22] {ese} ese's charts are all buggared up this morning
[10:22] {Threei}  need qiotes?
[10:22] {ese} no quotes.......or candlesticks...coming out a dashes
[10:23] {Threei}  yikes
[10:23] {ese} no
[10:25] {dino} out nvda +.10 ty 3i
[10:25] {Threei}  welcome :)
[10:26] {dino} banks want 40% greek haircut on debt, eu wants 60%
[10:26] {Threei}  so, they'll agree on 50
[10:26] {Threei}  the real question is, will it solve anything?
[10:27] {Threei}  'cause next thing we see is Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy say, how about OUR debt? No haircut for our creditors??
[10:33] {Threei}  starting hunt for RIMM reversal
[10:34] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .80 break half lot
[10:34] {Threei}  change to .85
[10:34] {Threei}  more aggressive
[10:35] {Threei}  stop abpve .90
[10:37] {Threei}  cover half here, .74
[10:38] {Threei}  stop to .86
[10:40] {Threei}  stop to .81
[10:43] {dino} sxci sm l .00
[10:43] {dino} out .50, +.50
[10:43] {Threei}  closed RIMM in full
[10:43] {Threei}  wtg dino
[10:43] {dino} lucky
[10:43] {Threei}  sure, me too
[10:44] {Threei}  4 out of 4
[10:55] {dino} .
[10:56] {Threei}  (EU) UK PM Cameron: A referendum in the UK towards EU membership would not be appropriate- Reminder: Earlier some members of the parliament have called for a referendum on membership
[11:10] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Fisher: Have successfully warded off deflation
[11:10] {Threei}  I'll say
[11:10] {Threei}  for 98 years already
[11:11] {Threei}  (SP) Spain Climate minister notes that the country will not pay more for solar panels in the EU as Italy has done
[11:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .90 break if stays above .80
[11:17] {RonS} unusual move ibm
[11:19] {Threei}  no news that I see on it
[11:19] {Threei}  techs are strong
[11:30] {Threei}  - EUR/USD tested session lows of 1.3823 on concerns that Germany and France would not be able to reach a deal on the EFSF at Wednesday's EU leader summit. There were vague rumors that the summit could be again postponed, but the EU Commission stated that it remained on course. EU Commissioner Juncker stated what many analysts had already predicted, namely that banks needed to prepare for 50-60% losses on Greek debt.
[11:31] {Threei}  look at tghe next line:
[11:31] {Threei}  The euro was off its worst level of the morning after the ECB increased the amount it settled in its government bond buying program to 4.5B from last week's 2.2B.
[11:31] {Threei}  unfrikingbelieavable
[11:34] {Threei}  RIMM of course invalidated
[11:56] {dino} vad, regarding this, once the hit is taken is it the same re-inflation trade? your thoughts.
[11:57] {Threei}  I really can't tell
[11:58] {Threei}  it looks this way on a surface, but I suspect it's a bit more complicated
[11:58] {Threei}  the thing that gives me a pause is:
[11:58] {Threei}  this hit is merely a hiccup on the way to much bigger hits
[11:59] {Threei}  relief for a day or week, just until the rst of underwater countries demand the same treatment
[12:00] {Threei}  so, it's not they can say: OK, this is over, now let's deal with more calm waters in a usual manner
[12:00] {Threei}  it's rather one hoop to jump through after another,
[12:00] {Threei}  and each one triggers a few new ones
[12:01] {Threei}  not even speaking of absence of "normal" inflation mechanism in euroland
[12:01] {Threei}  they very structure of their currency is so much more complicated,
[12:02] {Threei}  while printing in USA is a single entity decision (and even that becomes more difficult lately because of resistance of the masses),
[12:02] {cipher} sxci spike
[12:02] {Threei}  in Europe, it's backing of sovereign guarantors that is necessary for EU-wide printing
[12:02] {Threei}  and that became huge problem
[12:03] {dino} hmmmmmm, good points
[12:03] {Threei}  so no, if I had to answer this question with inromation I have today, I don't see normal "inflate our way out of this mess" as easy path forward
[12:05] {Threei}  not that they don't dream of it or won't try... :)
[12:06] {Threei}  I just don't see how they can do it given whole climate
[12:07] {dino} too many cooks, so to speak
[12:08] {Threei}  totally, yes
[12:08] {Threei}  and they each see different diashes as a result, with different ingredients
[12:09] {Threei}  and cook for different clients
[12:09] {Threei}  btw, remember, a week or so ago I opined that, however strange it looks, but US is likely come on top as a result of this whole mess
[12:10] {Threei}  look at this:
[12:10] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/MBOi5
[12:12] {ese} cya hopefully tomorrow........still having tech issues here
[12:12] {Threei}  take care ese
[12:12] {Threei}  tell your borker ee don't like like him
[12:12] {Threei}  ee = we
[12:33] {dino} hopefuuly they are right in that article 3i. that shale gas is all around me
[12:33] {Threei}  I feel it's only the beginning
[12:34] {Threei}  there is a lot going for US, even though it's not obvious yet
[12:34] {dino} throw out obama and more positive would come
[12:35] {Threei}  he is just a symptom...
[12:35] {Threei}  whole "let's help all who wasn't fortunate enough to make decent money" must go
[12:36] {dino} yes
[12:36] {Threei}  help must be limited to those who can't make it for objective reasons
[12:36] {Threei}  health, age
[12:37] {Threei}  the rest is just plain wrong as it kills motivation
[12:42] {dino} 11895 gap filled
[12:42] {Threei}  rodl
[12:42] {Threei}  rofl
[12:42] {Threei}  "The only thing we have to fear, is Italy itself."
[12:43] {dino} 1234 as well
[12:44] {Threei}  (EU) German Chancellor Merkel is said to have told members of parliament that EFSF will be leveraged up to over 1T, haircuts on Greek debt to be 50-60% - financial press
[12:44] {Threei}  - Recapitalization program said to be around 100B; with Germany banks estimated to need 5.5B
[12:44] {swill} I like that one Vad. lol
[12:44] {Threei}  yeah, that was funny :)
[12:45] {Threei}  OK, I am dying of laughter here
[12:45] {Threei}  read the last line
[12:45] {Threei}  and join me:
[12:45] {Threei}  (IT) Italy PM Berlusconi: There is no reason to fear the solidity of Italy's finances; has a firm position on the crisis for the next EU summit
[12:45] {Threei}  - Banking problem is primarily a French and Germany issue.
[12:45] {Threei}  get this?? Italy says banking problem is a French and Germany issue
[12:46] {swill} lol
[12:48] {Threei}  the push for less sovereignity continues:
[12:48] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Trichet: Case for a European finance ministry is growing; authorities should be given more policy role if a member state continues to underperform its targets
[12:48] {Threei}  - Notes that provided aid to states under stress is justified; EMU states should review each other's budgets
[13:28] {Threei}  ugh
[13:28] {Threei}  missed IBM .60 break
[14:38] {swill} oh well 4 of 5 is good
[14:38] {Threei}  4 of 4
[14:38] {Threei}  5th never took place :)
[14:39] {swill} lol
[14:53] {swill} sorry, bad memory
[14:54] {dino}  leaving lots of gaps below
[14:57] {Threei}  no worry, on Wed they anounce Europe is no more and one gap will cover all those
[14:58] {dino} thats what i am wondering
[15:03] {dino} we are up 17% since 10/04 low
[15:05] {Threei}  lol, they'll kill me today with these jokster headlines
[15:05] {Threei}  (IT) Italy Cabinet session ends without any decisions being taken - world press
[15:05] {Threei}  sure - why would they need toi decide anything if banking problems are Germany and France issue?
[15:16] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .35 break
[15:16] {Threei}  stop .41
[15:16] {Threei}  ridiculously tight
[15:17] {dino} in
[15:20] {Threei}  ok RIMM... time to roll over and die
[15:27] {Threei}  that's right, good boy
[15:38] {dino} stop
[15:38] {Threei}  oh well
[15:38] {Threei}  now it's 4 out of 5
[15:38] {Threei}  formally it reaxched 1:1 but it was ridiculous to play for 5 cents
[15:39] {dino} wanted a dime
[15:39] {Threei}  me too
[15:48] {Threei}  slow climb day... miracle that we made any money at all, lol
[15:49] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:49] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tmorrow
[15:49] {swill} thank you

[15:52] {dino} thx all, gn
[15:56] {patience} ty vad, good day for me, back to my daily, one trade on gdx
[15:56] {Threei}  :)
[15:58] {larisa} bye :)


Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Oct 19 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Another great day with a lot of nice winning trades ranging from 1:1 to 1:4. As soon as market gets out of that "slow creep-up" mode, we are in our element.


Session Time: Wed Oct 19 00:00:00 2011
[08:30] {Threei}  US) SEPT CONSUMER PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E
[08:30] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT HOUSING STARTS: 658K V 590KE; BUILDING PERMITS: 594K V 610KE
[08:48] {Threei}  ok... sit around, don't sit around, at some point gotta start (as huge drunkard at Russian wedding said before hitting sitting next to him in the ear)
[08:50] {swill} gentlemen, start your engines
[08:51] {Threei}  shhhhh... for nemo it's a signal to start pouring whiskey in his throat as a fuel
[08:51] {nemo} what do you have one of those biodiesel's running on cooking fat, swill?
[08:51] {nemo} vodka
[08:51] {swill} lol
[08:53] {swill} caffeen for me
[08:53] {Threei}  well, per ese caffein works too - when taken intravenously
[08:54] {swill} have you seen the movie, limitless.  Like that
[08:54] {Threei}  no... new one?
[08:54] {swill} four weeks ago I think
[08:56] {Threei}  unless we are talking new Bond movie, I am usually running with big delay on new releases... :)
[08:57] {swill} I'll loan it to you
[08:58] {Threei}  thanks... I'll whistle when ready :)
[08:58] {Threei}  or scream
[08:58] {swill} lol
[08:59] {Threei}  http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=276100932424589&set=a.237133656321317.63196.235739863127363&type=1&theater
[09:01] {swill} seems they will have slow growth there
[09:02] {Threei}  slow growth?
[09:02] {Threei}  rofl
[09:02] {Threei}  that's one way to name a crash
[09:02] {swill} lol
[09:03] {swill} btw, what set up were you using yesterday vad?
[09:03] {Threei}  ?
[09:04] {Threei}  for what?
[09:04] {swill} did you mention a pattern in the chat room
[09:04] {Threei}  not sure what you mean... there were 5 calls
[09:05] {Threei}  each was different setup
[09:05] {swill} ok, I missunderstood.  thanks
[09:07] {ese} morning
[09:07] {Threei}  ese, we were just talking about you
[09:08] {Threei}  [08:53] {swill} caffeen for me
[09:08] {Threei}  [08:53] {Threei} well, per ese caffein works too - when taken intravenously
[09:08] {ese} oh oh
[09:09] {ese} ya .....what can i say....i like keep a hypodermic around for cafine injection in the morning
[09:09] {swill} lol
[09:16] {dino} gm all
[09:16] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:22] {ese} d
[09:26] {RonS} hello everyone...
[09:27] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:28] {_tarkus62} gm all
[09:28] {Threei}  tarkus :)
[09:28] {Threei}  targeting FCX for short
[09:28] {Threei}  half lot
[09:28] {larisa} gm :)
[09:28] {_tarkus62} k cool
[09:28] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:29] {ese} tarkus buddy.......i shop at your stores alot.......
[09:29] {ese} opps sorry thats target.........my mistake
[09:29] {_tarkus62} lol
[09:30] {ese} welcome to the board.........
[09:30] {Threei}  SLW too
[09:30] {Threei}  FCX bounces
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[09:31] {Threei}  invalidated of course
[09:31] {nemo} hehehehehe
[09:31] {Threei}  change to .80
[09:32] {Threei}  .90
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under 36
[09:32] {Threei}  got .87
[09:33] {Threei}  half out
[09:33] {Threei}  .67
[09:33] {Threei}  out in full
[09:33] {Threei}  .45
[09:33] {Threei}  whew
[09:34] {dino} gj
[09:34] {Threei}  missed SLW meanwhile
[09:34] {cipher} wow
[09:34] {_tarkus62} nice
[09:34] {cipher} thx 3i
[09:34] {Threei}  welcome sir
[09:34] {Threei}  awww, too soon
[09:34] {Threei}  look at this
[09:34] {thomcbell} molto bene Three
[09:34] {Threei}  :)
[09:35] {cipher} rollecoaster
[09:35] {cipher} thank god for hot keys
[09:36] {Threei}  ugh SLW
[09:36] {Threei}  this one seriously got away
[09:36] {Threei}  ok, don't get scared but
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  35 break
[09:36] {Threei}  half lot
[09:37] {Threei}  invalidated for now but will stay on radar
[09:37] {dino} aem sm l .65
[09:37] {Threei}  actually... maybe aggressive entry
[09:37] {Threei}  .10 break
[09:37] {Threei}  stop above .20
[09:38] {Threei}  invaidated too
[09:38] {dino} stop -.22
[09:40] {dino} rinsed
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: WFC  .10 break
[09:40] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[09:41] {Threei}  target 1:2, two partials
[09:41] {Threei}  1:1
[09:42] {Threei}  stop to .11 of course
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .95
[09:43] {Threei}  if stays above .85
[09:45] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:45] {Threei}  WFC target hit
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .80 break
[09:49] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[09:50] {Threei}  let's trail to .74
[09:50] {Threei}  looks good but it's RIMM, want to keep it on a tight leash
[09:52] {Threei}  market sharp red bar
[09:52] {Threei}  out
[09:53] {Threei} Short Setup: GS  104 break
[09:53] {Threei}  small shares
[09:53] {Threei}  stop above .20
[09:53] {Threei}  no worky
[09:54] {Threei}  crap, we missed that FCX 35 short
[09:54] {dino} aem capit
[09:55] {RonS} flood and mine closing...
[09:55] {RonS} not going near it
[09:56] {cipher} aem good one thx dino!
[09:56] {dino} gj
[09:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  45 break
[09:58] {Threei}  if stays above .90
[09:58] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:58] {Threei}  3 partials
[09:59] {Threei}  1:1
[09:59] {Threei}  stop to .98
[09:59] {dino} cma sm l .60
[10:00] {Threei}  1:2
[10:00] {Threei}  % of deaf, blind and stupid if determined:
[10:00] {Threei}  is
[10:00] {Threei}  6% Rate U.S. Economy As Good or Excellent
[10:01] {dino} cma stop -.12
[10:01] {cipher} wow AEM
[10:02] {Threei}  done with LVS
[10:02] {cipher} stepping out... need to change my diapers :-)
[10:02] {Threei}  lol
[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break half lot
[10:04] {Threei}  stop above .70
[10:04] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .50 break
[10:04] {Threei}  no go
[10:05] {ese} dino you out of aem
[10:07] {dino} no
[10:07] {Threei}  wow LVS
[10:07] {Threei}  ca I have mulligan?
[10:08] {dino} got out long time ago 48.43
[10:08] {dino} did not re enter yet
[10:08] {dino} cma rinsed
[10:09] {RonS} in cma .52 ave
[10:10] {RonS} target .94
[10:12] {RonS} out .94 +.42 ese size...u da man dino
[10:13] {dino} wtg
[10:15] {nemo} apkt
[10:15] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  35 break
[10:16] {Threei}  stop above .10
[10:16] {Threei}  target 1:2, 1:3
[10:18] {ese} nice one ron!!!!!!
[10:18] {Threei}  let's scratch it here
[10:18] {Threei}  yup
[10:18] {Threei}  something didn't look right
[10:21] {ese} L STX .19
[10:24] {Threei}  wow
[10:24] {ese} i'll say......6th sense there vad
[10:26] {dino} csh l break .00
[10:27] {ese} stx 1/2 out .31 +.12
[10:27] {dino} nxpi l .65
[10:30] {Threei}  *DOE CRUDE: -4.73M V +1.5ME; GASOLINE: -3.3M V -1.5ME; DISTILLATE: -4.27M V -1.5ME; UTILIZATION: 83.1% V 83.6%E
[10:31] {ese} out stx full .46 +.27....good enough  1k/1k ron
[10:31] {dino} gj
[10:31] {ese} tks
[10:32] {ese} am eyeing aem
[10:35] {dino} out nxpi +.03
[10:35] {cipher} long or short ese?
[10:40] {ese} am thinkin long
[10:40] {ese} depends on this bounce
[10:41] {ese} classic dino in at .00 maybe
[10:42] {ese} in .01 aem
[10:42] {cipher} nice
[10:43] {ese} out 1/2 avg .21
[10:43] {ese} break even balance
[10:44] {ese} stop to .15
[10:44] {dino} gj
[10:44] {ese} .20
[10:45] {ese} daaaaaaaaaa stopped .19 +.18
[10:45] {RonS} nice management...gj
[10:46] {Threei}  very
[10:46] {Threei}  refined way to trade
[10:46] {ese} must apologise that was not classic dino........his would have been +1.50
[10:46] {dino} not today,getting rinsed alot
[10:46] {Threei}  well, that's the difference between man and dinosaur... SIZE!
[10:46] {dino} thats what she said
[10:46] {RonS} ya but there is dino size, then there is ese size
[10:47] {RonS} lol
[10:47] {ese} that went 1k/1k ......no biggie
[10:48] {ese} STX still staying strong may go in there again sm
[10:48] {RonS} ...freakin 1%'er...
[10:49] {Threei}  lol
[10:49] {ese} ya but don't forget.......these thing can go against ya faster big time
[10:50] {dino} cma l .55
[10:50] {RonS} true 'dat...'specially a mining stock w/ a closed flooded mine
[10:50] {ese} definite;ly
[10:52] {RonS} btw for canuckian education:  true 'dat is a cajun expression
[10:52] {ese} like i said before....it's just cruise control these days....am not likely to be doing 10k/15k like iwas doing3 years ago......chuck a dart at a stock.....thats the one going up
[10:53] {dino} you're a piece of work ese
[10:53] {ese} spring 08/09? hmmmmm can't remember
[10:53] {RonS} ...and fwiw cajuns are French Arcadians captured and transported to Lousiana by the Bristish in the early 18th century
[10:54] {Threei}  Ron... this is slippery slope: a few days more and you are going to start speaking Swahili with us
[10:54] {RonS} ...that's the main reason Louisiana is so weird
[10:54] {ese} I shoulda stayed there.......would have had a better chance at playing music for a living in New Orleans
[10:55] {dino} we all have shoulda's
[10:55] {RonS} for me plus woulda's and shoulda's
[10:55] {ese} dats fur shuah
[10:55] {RonS} sorry coulda's
[10:57] {ese} ya like.....I shoulda made to Mertle to golf with dino
[10:57] {ese} thats still on the hit list
[10:58] {dino} ;)
[10:58] {dino} cma stop -.09
[10:59] {ese} gotta do that before my shoulders can't turn a full 90 degrees to hit a golf ball prpperly
[11:00] {RonS} seen many codgers that does not hurt their game much
[11:00] {dino} too much tequila on this last trip, was hurting couple days
[11:01] {dino} air pocket drop
[11:01] {dino} wtf cma rinsed again, that makes 3
[11:03] {RonS} dunno if i will play it but knl reported great qtr and look...
[11:05] {dino} think we have to
[11:08] {RonS} At least 14 police officers hospitalized with injuries in clashes with Greek demonstrators
[11:09] {nemo} funny, width of my window breaks up the words so it says "clashes with Greek demons"
[11:09] {dino} lol
[11:09] {dino} knl l .55
[11:17] {nemo} sina
[11:18] {RonS} sohu
[11:18] {RonS} chinese burrito stock...dang, etc
[11:21] {dino} knl stopped, sheesh
[11:24] {Threei}  EU's Van Rompuy: might have to consider changing unanimity rules for making euro zone decisions; all EMU countries should yield some sovereignty as part of greater integration
[11:24] {Threei}  heh
[11:24] {dino} lol
[11:24] {dino} lets see that pass a vote
[11:24] {RonS} these guys chewing peyote over there?
[11:24] {nemo} WHERE???
[11:25] {ese} just dropped the kids off at school and now I gotta go.....cya tomorrow
[11:26] {Threei}  take care ese
[11:26] {dino} cya ese gj
[11:28] {dino} last try cma sm l .39
[11:38] {RonS} sm l knl .93
[11:38] {cipher} me too in knl .95
[11:40] {cipher} stopped
[11:41] {dino} sm l .76 knl
[11:46] {dino} cma to flat
[11:56] {dino} knl stopped.
[11:56] {dino} taking a break, i suck today
[11:59] {cipher} l knl .12
[12:00] {cipher} out partial .39
[12:03] {Threei}  nice
[12:05] {cipher} out another partial at .49
[12:06] {RonS} knl l .40 ave
[12:06] {Threei}  getting back in the groove, cipher :)
[12:07] {cipher} seems like it
[12:10] {cipher} misjudged my last exit knl only got 100 filled at .60
[12:13] {cipher} here we go out rest +.48
[12:13] {Threei}  wtg
[12:13] {dino} apkt sm l .00
[12:14] {dino} wtg cipher
[12:14] {cipher} thx
[12:18] {cipher} first positive day for me
[12:18] {RonS} out knl .68 +.28 ese size
[12:18] {cipher} I will leave while ahead
[12:18] {cipher} take care cu tomorrow
[12:19] {RonS} cya cipher and thanks...best day in months for me...
[12:19] {dino} cya cipher
[12:20] {Threei}  take care cipher, gj
[12:20] {Threei}  not bad, a few days after starting out
[12:39] {Threei}  declaration draft by OWS says:
[12:39] {Threei}  4. A complete lifetime ban on accepting all gifts, services, money, directly or indirectly, to any elected or appointed federal officials or their immediate family members, from any person, corporation, union or other entity that the public official was charged to regulate while in office.
[12:40] {Threei}  I understand President will be forever banned from accepting a bottle of wine for his birthday from anyone
[12:40] {Threei}  since he regulates whole USA population, in a sense
[12:42] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[12:48] {Threei}  come on .60, hold
[12:53] {Threei}  no go
[12:53] {dino} aqpkt stop -.21
[12:54] {dino} apkt
[12:57] {RonS} fl rumor...
[12:58] {dino} f'ing rinses, apkt makes 4
[13:03] {Threei}  https://sites.google.com/site/the99percentdeclaration/
[13:04] {Threei}  incredibly eclectic mix of correct, naive, unworkable and idiotic
[13:11] {dino} apkt rinses me and runs .70. wtf
[13:20] {Threei}  (EU) EFSF technical discussions now centering around purchases of collateral for guarantees, after legal experts say direct guarantees are not possible - financial press
[13:20] {RonS} who is riding and who is driving?  :  WSJ: EU Lawyers Have Rejected Direct EFSF Guarantees
[13:20] {Threei}  this all is so wrong...
[13:21] {Threei}  it's like if you find yourself on the wrong road, you continue driving further with oncreased spped instead of turning back
[13:21] {Threei}  and hope it will get you where you need to be
[13:22] {Threei}  this course of action got you there - reverse it, for pete's sake!
[13:22] {Threei}  why do more of what got you in troubles in the first place?
[13:28] {dino} rnow blood
[13:31] {RonS} pretty funny...from you bud 3i:  http://tinyurl.com/3mkc6vh
[13:34] {Threei}  heh
[13:34] {nemo} http://www.klfy.com/story/15717759/second-hand-dealer-law
[13:35] {RonS} hah...like anyone in LA pays any attention to the law...
[13:36] {dino} sina sm l .00
[13:38] {RonS} idiocy unleashed:  http://tinyurl.com/5wvr925
[13:40] {dino} stopped
[13:40] {RonS} starting to get a faz itch...copper -.11
[13:40] {dino} 5th rinse
[13:47] {Threei}  GR) Greece Parliament said to have begun voting process on supplemental austerity bill, ahead of final austerity vote expected on Thursday - financial press
[13:47] {Threei}  - REMINDER: Greece is in the midst of a 48-hour general strike in protest of the new austerity measures.
[13:55] {RonS} hearing beige book in 6 min
[14:00] {Threei}  yeah
[14:00] {Threei}  just started
[14:01] {Threei}  *(US) FED'S BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMY GREW AT A MODERATE AND SLIGHT PACE; COST PRESSURES EASING IN MOST REGIONS
[14:01] {Threei}  looong
[14:01] {Threei}  and useless
[14:04] {RonS} fidelity reported that sarkozy says bail fund expansion talks have stalled
[14:04] {RonS} look V
[14:04] {RonS} caw, caw
[14:07] {Threei}  what's woth it?
[14:07] {Threei}  I see no news
[14:08] {RonS} me either
[14:08] {dino} div raised
[14:08] {RonS} More Lawsuits Take Aim At Visa And MasterCard ATM Policies       10/19 11:36 AM
[14:08] {RonS} ??
[14:16] {RonS} v sm l .89
[14:16] {RonS} should say vsm l...one way or another...
[14:18] {RonS} out -.18
[14:27] {Threei}  hmmm
[14:27] {Threei}  why no news on wires
[14:27] {Threei}  re: fidelity
[14:27] {nemo} what happened
[14:27] {Threei}  as always... dino had to trip of the cord and unplug the market
[14:28] {dino} sorry
[14:28] {nemo} clumsy oaf!
[14:28] {dino} been that kind of day
[14:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[14:40] {Threei}  half lot
[14:43] {nemo} after that run I just couldn't...God bless ya
[14:43] {Threei}  half out
[14:43] {Threei}  stop to .48
[14:45] {Threei}  scalpers win
[15:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  51 break
[15:04] {Threei}  half lot
[15:05] {Threei}  stop under .90 or .85
[15:05] {Threei}  both are valid
[15:05] {Threei}  target .45
[15:06] {Threei}  half out .18
[15:06] {Threei}  stop to .95
[15:13] {RonS} sorry, stepped away...can't handle the chop
[15:25] {RonS} see youze tomorrow...have an appt...
[15:26] {Threei}  take care ron
[15:33] {nemo} mmmhhh bids higher than offers on tna
[15:35] {Threei}  INET seems to be having problems
[15:37] {nemo} wonder if they got hacked
[15:41] {Threei}  nice smacking
[15:56] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
[15:56] {Threei}  see you tomorrow

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Look Ahead: Three Kinds of Crash

                                                  Life never gets so bad that it can't get worse" 
                                                                                            - Solomon Short

Putting together pieces of mosaic gathered over last few months by observing both news headlines and market reactions, let me offer my view on the future big picture developments. Everyone has one, why not add another voice and see how reality matches the forecast (rather set of scenarios in my case but you get the idea). Want to say from the start - this is a forecast that I will be happy to be mistaken about.

We will break it by two distinctive parts - economy and market developments. Let's start with economy.

European Union is non-viable and not-salvageable entity. Its deep underlying problem is discrepancy between various aspects of union. It's a monetary union - but not fiscal. Economic - but not political. This patchwork creates situation where decisions are difficult to make and even more difficult to implement, and solutions help one member at the expense of another. Authorities would be happy to throw more money at the problem but taxpayers of one sovereign state are not keen on bailing out another - and those taxpayers are voters. Push for collateral and austerity threatens autonomy of a debtor - and taxpayers start rioting over there too. There is no third party that could bail it all out (rumors spiking now and then about Latin America or China lending money to EU is pure nonsense and if anything, show the degree of desperation). Thus, there are only two ways forward: crash or money printing. Are these two really two? Not in my view - money printing does nothing but stretches crash in time, turning it into slow motion crash. It's fine with authorities though if they can stretch it by decades - today's decision-makers leave the office till then. So, real choice is between three options, none of which is warm and fuzzy.

First is Crash Now. No printing, no bailouts, let's rip the band-aid off, take the (admittedly huge) pain and start healing and rebuilding, with lessons learned in mind. Probability of this? Well, only if enraged taxpayers/voters find the way to force the hand of their respective governments and abandon the attempts to save the union. No politician wants to preside over collapse ("Crash?? Not on my watch!"). Thus,

Second is some printing now, masked as bank recapitalization, insurance guarantees etc etc. As we were shown by Fed, there are many ways to create money out of thin air. If Powers That Be manage to agree among themselves and push some kind of package through their respective elected bodies before people take on the street in numbers impossible to ignore, this will postpone the crash a bit. Such solution is nothing but kicking the can down the road, and reality will catch up with fantasy of salvation once again (after all, the debt remains as unsustainable and it was, and even becomes worse). At that point political will to continue on that path runs out, and we face second variation: Crash Later. How much later? Well, depends on how much is printed. Odds? Feels to me, this is the most probable option.

Finally, third option is printing gradually over extended period of time. That would be politicians preferred way if they could find the way to do it quietly and as a trivial matter, under the radar so to speak. This is Crash in Slo Mo. Pity the savers; inflation tax forever.

One more aspect of the big picture is China (and Asia overall). My feel is, it's a whole new can of worms down the road. It's not in a focus of attention much at this point since European troubles are more imminent. China's turn is to come yet, and unsustainability of economy geared to supply the West which cuts off its demand and of putting money in ghost cities to keep people working and economy humming - unsustainability of all this is going to reveal itself at some point.


Let's move to the market side of the picture. How is it going to react in each of the scenarios? In the first one, Crash Now, it's will mirror the economy and crash with it. Second - Crash Later - is what market is betting on over last couple weeks by climbing in the face of grim news. If this option materializes, market will spike first in relief, then drop quickly reflecting the part of reaction built in already by this recent climb and killing later arrivals; then new news will overtake and new worries (or lack of such) will start influence the movement. Finally, third option (Slo Mo Crash) is what market will be most happy about, staging big long term rally, quite possibly to new all time highs. After all, inflation is not only tax - it's also a wealth transfer to those who has what to invest.

There. Hope life proves me wrong and things turn more rosy.

(For those who prefer Facebook, this post is mirrored here)

Monday, June 7, 2010

Jun 07 2010

Chart wise, this is double bottom play (area market in yellow). However, finding an entry was a challenge, as confirmation level would give us too wide stop. For entry we found a little "setup within a setup" - look at out entry point and stop level closer and you will see that it's a little setup by itself - now zoom out again and look at it from the point of view of a bigger chart formation, that same double bottom.
Overall, that was a day of invalidation - one setup after another would invalidate before triggering. We got a few nice trades but the day left a feeling if "could have been much more."

Session Time: Mon Jun 07 00:00:00 2010

[04:48] {KSystems} morning
[08:32] {nemo} When Black Monday comes....(sung to the tune of Steely Dan's "When Black Friday Comes")
[08:33] {Threei} IMMU Reports Updated Results of Targeted Therapy for Advanced Pancreatic Cancer (3.45, 0.00, 0.00%)
[08:33] {Threei} black monday?
[08:33] {Threei} I see futs up
[08:33] {patience} good morning guys
[08:33] {Les} who is steely dan?
[08:33] {Threei} patience :)
[08:33] {nemo} I can hope can't I?
[08:34] {Threei} les :)
[08:34] {Les} afternoon
[08:34] {nemo} Oh, Les...you don't know Steely Dan?
[08:35] {Les} sounds like a brand of custard
[08:35] {nemo} Excellent music
[08:37] {Threei} Euro vs US Dollar (NV) Netherlands Fin Min De Jager: Euro fx rate around historical average; not concerned over long-term EMU stability
[08:40] {Threei} - Confident over Euro zone sustainability
[08:50] {Threei} (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) To increase 2010 debt issuance plans to finance its participation in Greek aid package
[08:50] {Threei} - To issue up between 240-250B bonds in 2010; Have issued 102.7B ytd
[08:50] {Threei} - Conditions not right for new linker bond issue
[08:52] {Les} lol issue debt for bailout of debt. Gawd Monty Python material
[08:53] {nemo} yeah...just what I was thinking
[08:58] {Threei} (AS) Austrian Fin Min: No danger to EMU from Hungarian fiscal situation
[09:01] {Les} BP decent drop into 38
[09:01] {nemo} with volume
[09:02] {dino} gm all
[09:02] {Les} hey dino
[09:03] {RonS} gm dino & all
[09:03] {dino} :D
[09:03] {Threei} dino, ron :)
[09:05] {Threei} BP Goldman Sachs Cuts BP to Neutral from Buy
[09:06] {nemo} RIG balancing on the 200
[09:14] {magoo} morn
[09:14] {Threei} magoo :)
[09:14] {Threei} larisa :)
[09:14] {larisa} gm :)
[09:17] {Threei} EUR/USD (RU) Russia Central Bank publishes May currency intervention stats
[09:17] {Threei} - Purchased net $4.3B and 1.1B
[09:17] {Threei} what happened to all the "get out of USD"
[09:19] {shorty} morning all
[09:19] {Threei} shorty :)
[09:22] {lasertrev} morning
[09:22] {Threei} trev :)
[09:25] {Threei} AVII Enters $18M funding contract with the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency for H1N1 - filing dated 6/4
[09:29] {jfjf64} mornin
[09:29] {Threei} jf :)
[09:29] {nemo} still can't believe Les never heard of Steely Dan
[09:30] {Les} bluesy rock sort of sound was not my thing as teenager
[09:30] {nemo} wasn't bluesy
[09:30] {Threei} Meeting between French Pres Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel has been cancelled - press
[09:31] {jfjf64} les was rockin to flock of seaguls
[09:31] {Threei} .short lvs .45 break
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS .45 break
[09:31] {Threei} invalidated
[09:33] {jfjf64} bp
[09:33] {jfjf64} l
[09:33] {jfjf64} nope
[09:34] {Les} fas crash
[09:35] {Threei} ugh LVS
[09:35] {Threei} got away
[09:36] {jfjf64} vxx vad
[09:36] {jfjf64} fill gap
[09:37] {dino} whr sm l .99
[09:38] {Les} FAZ pullback to under .25 for long entry?
[09:38] {nemo} look at big
[09:38] {nemo} that could drop a long way
[09:39] {Threei} LVS bounce time soon
[09:40] {shorty} I was just going to ask
[09:41] {Les} l FAZ .56 stopu under .50 half out .61¨
[09:41] {jfjf64} +11 cents vxx
[09:41] {Threei} .93 LVS long
[09:41] {Threei} if stays above .85
[09:41] {dino} stopped whr -.33
[09:42] {Threei} invalidated
[09:42] {jfjf64} vxx grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
[09:43] {jfjf64} bmy .97 break
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup: LVS .90
[09:44] {Threei} if stays above .80
[09:45] {Threei} lol
[09:45] {Les} 1:3 FAZ out another 1/4 .70
[09:46] {Les} stop to b/e
[09:48] {nemo} hah! raven got booted
[09:48] {shorty} out lvs .10 + 27
[09:48] {shorty} .27
[09:49] {Les} last quarter stopped flat
[09:49] {Threei} wtg
[09:49] {Les} this bounce another shorting opp?
[09:50] {Threei} most likely
[09:50] {dino} whr sm l .50
[09:54] {Les} GG weak in this bounce. watching it for b/d opp later.
[09:56] {Threei} Long Setup: WFC .80 break
[09:57] {dino} air gap market
[09:58] {dino} out whr .55, +1.05
[09:58] {Les} kaching baby $$
[09:58] {jfjf64} nice dino
[09:58] {patience} nice one dino
[09:58] {dino} too soon
[09:58] {dino} ty
[09:59] {Les} half out wfc .85 from .77 long
[10:02] {Threei} let's scratch WFC here
[10:03] {Threei} market is too shaky
[10:03] {Threei} became 50/50
[10:04] {dino} sm l fdx .70
[10:07] {Threei} Raven, welcome back
[10:08] {Raven} hey ... nice to be back
[10:08] {Raven} It is not ... I lied
[10:08] {Les} Raven was gone?
[10:08] {Raven} sigh
[10:10] {Threei} WFC made it after all
[10:10] {Threei} viscous action here
[10:11] {nemo} thick?
[10:11] {Les} :)
[10:11] {ese} hi all just popping in to say high......will not be trading much the next week and a half as per other years.....last litle bit of school.then........FREEDOM!!!!!!! FREEDOM!!!!!! think aretha Franklin here
[10:11] {Threei} ese :)
[10:11] {ese} hey vad
[10:11] {dino} gm es
[10:11] {shorty} Was thinking LVS break .40?
[10:11] {nemo} she couldn't fit in the trading room ese
[10:12] {ese} market kinda up
[10:12] {ese} dino
[10:12] {ese} ya true nemo
[10:13] {Threei} not sure shorty
[10:14] {Threei} market hasn't rewarded this kind of entries lately
[10:14] {ese} patience....your back!!!!! did you get to the Oak Bay Tea Party on the weekend
[10:14] {shorty} Went up sharply, then stalled Threei.
[10:15] {shorty} Lately bounces have been rewarding at the start of the day.
[10:16] {dino} out fdx .90, +.20, mkt dropping
[10:16] {Les} refined my FAZ strategy. out +.05 3k
[10:16] {Les} too soon i see
[10:16] {patience} hi ese :) no, I didn't
[10:17] {ese} not a great day yesterday but nice saturday
[10:18] {patience} i'll see you at the Shish Kabob Party though :)
[10:18] {jfjf64} hoe bout them CELTICS
[10:19] {shorty} Still waiting on my invite for that one patience.
[10:19] {patience} talk to the Man
[10:19] {ese} definitely
[10:19] {dino} go celtics
[10:19] {jfjf64} luv it dino
[10:21] {Threei} LVS, one more sharp dive and will be intersting for bounce
[10:21] {RonS} go Ubaldo Jimenez
[10:21] {Threei} .10 break
[10:21] {Threei} if holding .05
[10:22] {Threei} barely touched 1;1... not what I wanted
[10:22] {shorty} stopped LVS
[10:23] {jfjf64} she want UP
[10:23] {jfjf64} IN
[10:23] {Les} miners a running
[10:23] {Les} are running
[10:24] {jfjf64} grrrrrrrrrrrrr
[10:25] {ese} ould that be the Glasgow Celtics
06[10:25] * nemo slaps ese around a bit with a large backboard
[10:25] {jfjf64} ty nemo
06[10:25] * nemo slaps ese around a bit with a large boston garden
06[10:25] * nemo slaps ese around a bit with a large Causeway Street
06[10:26] * nemo slaps ese around a bit with a large statue of Red Auerbach
[10:26] {ese} ya i deserve that
[10:26] {nemo} just gettin' started
[10:26] {ese} was trying to make a funny but knew i wouldn't get away with it
[10:26] {nemo} I'm from Boston dude
[10:26] {nemo} DB faz vad?
[10:27] {Threei} or breakdown
[10:27] {Threei} just as likely
[10:29] {shorty} stooped lvs
[10:29] {Threei} wow
[10:29] {Les} s lvs .99
[10:29] {Threei} stop was 5 cents
[10:29] {shorty} I tried it again .06
[10:30] {Les} l faz .06
[10:31] {Les} out faz +.16
[10:32] {Les} cover lvs +:10
[10:33] {jfjf64} les ya mind leave some for rest of us
[10:33] {Threei} sheesh FAZ
[10:33] {jfjf64} lol
[10:33] {nemo} broken clock moment
[10:33] {Les} i am good for the day jf. no problems
[10:33] {Threei} GS FCIC reportedly subpoenas the company for documents (141.66, -0.59, -0.41%)
[10:34] {Threei} jf, admin asked to ask you look your e-mail
[10:34] {dino} sm l dcth .98
[10:34] {jfjf64} k
[10:35] {Threei} Long Setup: FAS .55
[10:35] {Threei} if stays above .45
[10:36] {Threei} not a scalp, should be capable of 1:2
[10:37] {Threei} LVS COO: Asia is our future, though there may be some future expansion in the US - Goldman lodging conf (23.79, -0.46, -1.90%)
[10:37] {Les} lvs :(
[10:37] {Threei} invalidated
[10:39] {Les} jeez $gold going nuts
[10:40] {patience} gold up,canadian dollar up, usually commodities go up...not today
[10:42] {Les} c'mon market, you know you want to melt down...
[10:42] {Threei} can't get the rythm today
[10:43] {dino} pico sm l .00, thin
[10:44] {Les} faz .46 l
[10:45] {Les} lol laser says I bought FAZ at .14
[10:45] {Les} I'm rich!
[10:46] {larisa} demorich :)
[10:46] {dino} watching fdx, cvs
[10:46] {Les} :P
[10:46] {Threei} or, you still have position from lower prices that you don't notice,
[10:46] {Threei} and laser shows you avergae of your entry prices
[10:48] {Les} nah that's in order. Glitch I guess
[10:48] {dino} cvs sm l .50
[10:49] {Threei} FAZ, dive under .50 for bounce hunt
[10:50] {Les} out FAZ +.09
[10:51] {dino} stop cvs flat
[10:52] {Les} vad got a problem with level 2
[10:52] {Threei} ?
[10:52] {Les} ahh now I get it. friggin hell I'm slow
[10:52] {Les} if level 2 is showing faulty quotes, what do I change?
[10:53] {Les} quote server?
[10:53] {Threei} continent
[10:53] {Les} aaaaah funny guy
[10:53] {Les} changed quote server. fixed my problem I think
[10:53] {Threei} just a few cents, FAZ...
[10:54] {Les} wanted long FAZ at .65. but there was an offer at .... .14
[10:54] {Threei} not getting precise read today, most entries or invalidations are off by just 2-3 cents
[10:54] {Les} "limit price is out of range!"
[10:55] {dino} cvs held, hmmm
[10:56] {Les} wow $gold is seriously sick. what happened?
[10:56] {Threei} trhe same
[10:56] {Threei} Europe is sinking
[10:58] {Les} TLT 98 break with consolidation?
[10:58] {nemo} woe is me for not taking faz at .05 boo hoo
[10:58] {Les} i did. good risk/reward
[10:58] {dino} dji, ndx break of fri lod
[10:58] {nemo} yep
[10:58] {dino} s/p on it
[10:58] {Threei} TKT not my favorite way to play this breakdown
[10:58] {Threei} TLT
[10:59] {dino} s/p broke
[10:59] {Les} ok
[11:02] {dino} cvs sm l .40
[11:03] {Les} s GG.97 small
[11:04] {Threei} Long Setup: FAS .05
[11:05] {Threei} stop under .95
[11:06] {Threei} target around .30 - .40
[11:07] {Threei} BAC Countrywide unit settles case with FTC on overcharged fees; to pay approx $110M for reimbursement to homeowners (15.02, -0.33, -2.15%)
[11:07] {dino} fdx sm l .36
[11:09] {Threei} 1:1
[11:10] {Threei} half out .17
[11:10] {Les} all out +.10 ty
[11:10] {Threei} promise not to cry?
[11:11] {Les} nah I'm good now. I'll take the scalps as extra.
[11:13] {Threei} ok... scalpers win
[11:14] {Les} yeh this market is on a knife's edge in my humble and lowly judgement
[11:15] {Threei} (EU) IMF: Europe growth outlook remains weak
[11:15] {Threei} you don't say
[11:15] {Les} damn forgot to cancel fas stop loss. s .93
[11:16] {Threei} why do you need it at all?
[11:17] {Les} I like computer handling losses. Helping me immensely since using laser
[11:18] {Les} just gotta remember to turn it off
[11:18] {Threei} my bet is: in real life you will find it harming more often than helping
[11:18] {Les} if that be case then I'll switch over
[11:19] {Les} I have begun handling stops myself occasionaly
[11:19] {nemo} rimm Vad
[11:19] {nemo} oops
[11:20] {larisa} RIMM for reversal nemo?
[11:20] {nemo} possibly but looks like it wants to go short
[11:20] {nemo} yeah, wasn't holding the bid
[11:21] {dino} wow ma
[11:21] {nemo} no hands
[11:22] {Les} gg stopped -.26
[11:26] {Threei} FAS
[11:26] {Threei} 21 break long
[11:26] {Threei} stop under .95
[11:27] {Threei} what a breakdown, RIMM
[11:27] {Threei} we didn't short at .15 it why exactly?
[11:28] {nemo} Yeah, my second broken clock moment today...time for a nap
[11:28] {Threei} half out FAS
[11:28] {Threei} 1:2
[11:28] {Threei} scalpers feel free to take your lumps and go
[11:28] {Threei} I want my .30
[11:30] {Les} haha missed your call...
[11:30] {Les} no lumps to take
[11:36] {Threei} 1/4 more out .24
[11:37] {nemo} fas should keep going until it reaches .50 or spy reach .05
[11:38] {shorty} See you guys tomorrow.
[11:38] {Les} ciao
[11:38] {Threei} take care shiorty
[11:39] {dino} cya shorty
[11:41] {dino} dcth stopped -.33
[11:45] {dino} out cvs .83, +.43
[11:48] {Threei} .30 was perfect target
[11:51] {Les} how did you see .30 as target?
[11:52] {Threei} support from 10:30 - 10:40 period
[11:52] {Les} I see little bounce before b/d .30 just before 10.45am. a zone of consolidation?
[11:52] {Les} ok
[11:55] {dino} dcth blood
[11:57] {Threei} Congressman Steve Scalise (R-LA) to request that President Obama reconsider drilling ban in deepwater Gulf, citing economic fallout for the industry - WSJ (related USO OIH )
[11:58] {Threei} August gold within $10 from all time highs seen in early May (related GLD )
[12:05] {dino} out fdx .97, +.61
[12:05] {Threei} wtg
[12:05] {dino} ty
[12:08] {Threei} MS Fox's Gasparino: Morgan Stanley planning closure of 300 offices, and cut approx 1,200 jobs
[12:09] {Threei} be back in 20
[12:15] {dino} dcth gap filled april
[12:17] {dino} sm l dcth .00
[12:17] {dino} risky, stop is .63
[12:19] {patience} i've been away from scalping too long. totally couldn't execute the buy order for 3 stocks i am tracking. my gut just doesn't believe the charts....i'm overthinking it :)
[12:20] {dino} imo your gut is saying things are messed up. that's whtat mine is saying
[12:21] {Les} and I'm getting sucked into it. Hate it when the market does this
[12:21] {patience} but you are still doing trades
[12:21] {dino} small size patience, 300 sh
[12:22] {patience} good advice, i'll wait for the lunch time crowd to fade and see what the afternoon brings
[12:22] {dino} things are too random for bigger imo
[12:26] {dino} hmmm cf not following pot, mos
[12:28] {Threei} QTWW Subsidiary Signs Power Contract With Ontario Power Authority for Utility-Scale Wind Project in Northern Ontario
[12:28] {Threei} POS
[12:39] {Threei} Short Setup: BP .35 break
[12:40] {Threei} if stays under .40
[12:40] {Threei} invalidated
[12:41] {Threei} quite unusual number of invalidated calls today
[12:43] {jfjf64} lots
[12:44] {jfjf64} opinion
[12:47] {Threei} re-validated
[12:49] {Threei} two ways to play it
[12:49] {Threei} as a scalp with stop above .40
[12:49] {Threei} or day trade, .45
[12:52] {Threei} no go
[12:55] {patience} life sucks, have you noticed?
[12:55] {patience} i go to cash day before my asia trip
[12:55] {patience} my partner buys heavily
[12:55] {patience} he just skyped to say as of today he is up 20%
[12:56] {dino} but you had great vacation
[12:56] {Les} the money or a trip to china?
[12:56] {Les} hmmmm
[12:56] {patience} but i like the idea of making money while i am on vacation
[12:56] {patience} i am whining
[12:56] {dino} don't we all
[12:57] {dino} yes, you are. i'm surprised ;)
[12:57] {RonS} coulda been smacke w/ an '87 style crash patience...
[12:58] {RonS} "it's better to be out wishing you were in, than in wishing you were out"
[12:58] {nemo} you talkin' about stocks?
[12:58] {RonS} could be...
[12:58] {jfjf64} lol
[12:58] {nemo} :)
[12:59] {Les} why, what you thinking nemo?
[12:59] {RonS} :P
[12:59] {nemo} I don't think?
[12:59] {nemo} Actually, I think it's time for a drink
[12:59] {jfjf64} bingo
[12:59] {Les} way ahead of ya man
[13:00] {nemo} yeah, 6 hours ahead
[13:00] {RonS} ...what are you? w.c. fields re-incarnated?
[13:01] {dino} out dcth .31, +.31
[13:01] {nemo} I'm reincarnated...exactly what I am... no eye deer
[13:01] {RonS} dcth...dead cat trampoline high?
[13:01] {jfjf64} dino monster wtg
[13:01] {nemo} frickin BP
[13:02] {jfjf64} set up here 4 us
[13:02] {nemo} ?
[13:03] {jfjf64} in
[13:03] {dino} lucky
[13:03] {nemo} what, bp?
[13:03] {jfjf64} y
[13:03] {jfjf64} .30
[13:04] {Threei} grrr
[13:04] {dino} brb
[13:04] {jfjf64} out
[13:05] {Les} nice one jf
[13:05] {jfjf64} i hv to thank nemo
[13:05] {jfjf64} ty neno
[13:05] {Les} and here I've got the missus bugging me to scan school books for replacement teacher :)
[13:06] {jfjf64} nemo
[13:06] {nemo} wow, THREE broken clock moments
[13:06] {Les} you're a useful broken clock
[13:07] {Threei} AAPL CEO Jobs: Planning for iPad to be available in 19 countries by July end; 35M app downloads for iPads thus far
[13:08] {Threei} had a chance to play with iPad yesterday
[13:08] {Threei} I am yet to understand what this buzz is about
[13:08] {Les} you just don't get it!
[13:08] {Threei} no
[13:08] {Les} try a lobotomy...
[13:08] {Threei} I guess you have to be an iPod generation
[13:08] {Les} and then you too can become apple maniac
[13:08] {Threei} or that
[13:10] {dino} i don't get it either 3i
[13:12] {Threei} - Currently produced iPads as quickly as possible
[13:12] {Threei} - Users have downloaded 5M ebooks in first 65 days of iPad sales, estimates ebook market share at 22%. Updated iBook reader includes bookmarks, ability to make notes in e-books, and to read PDFs.
[13:13] {Threei} so can my 5 years old laptop... what's the big deal?
[13:13] {dino} all marketing i guess
[13:16] {Les} all need to identify ourselves with something or someone...
[13:16] {Les} even if it's with whacky bunch of traders like yourselves
[13:17] {dino} cf sm l .75
[13:18] {Les} drinking red wine from Midi du France and Manchego cheese from Spain. I hope to see Euro coming down a lot more in price
[13:20] {Threei} NFLX Ticks higher on announcement of iPhone version of app at Apple's WWDC (already available on the iPad) (111.75, +1.97, 1.79%) (related AAPL )
[13:22] {nemo} fcx, db maybe
[13:28] {nemo} RIMM CE&H?
[13:29] {nemo} ehhh....nah
[13:33] {nemo} damn, the C&H worked
[13:33] {Threei} headfake or rally
[13:34] {nemo} I think retest of the highs today
[13:34] {Threei} that ias the question
[13:34] {nemo} I thought it was "To be, or not to be?"
[13:34] {Les} threw away l FAZ entry. not wanting to find out
[13:34] {patience} rally
[13:34] {nemo} rimm having problems at the 200 and pivot resistance right here
[13:34] {Threei} that one was resolved by bee counters, nemo
[13:35] {nemo} cute
06[13:35] * nemo slaps Threei around a bit with a large copy of Hamlet
[13:35] {Les} huh?
06[13:35] * nemo slaps Threei around a bit with a large copy of Harold Hecubah's production of Hamlet on Gilligan's Island
06[13:36] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a large wooden beehive
[13:36] {nemo} ?
[13:36] {nemo} wooden?
[13:37] {Threei} Apple Inc CEO Jobs: Formally announces iPhone 4, one hundred new features including a front facing camera and camera with flash on back - WWDC
[13:37] {Threei} - 24% thinner, at 9.3mm
[13:37] {Threei} - Glass on front and back with steel on sides, noise cancellation mic
[13:37] {Threei} - GSM, Wi-fi, GPS, Bluetooth, UMTS
[13:42] {Les} a frikkin head fake, just after covering. such is life
[13:48] {Threei} UDRL
[13:48] {Threei} Union Drilling, Inc. Issues statement on rig accident well fire this morning
[13:48] {Threei} - Our first priority is making certain that those injured receive proper medical attention. The families of all employees injured in the accident, ours and those of BJ Services, are in our thoughts and prayers
[13:48] {Threei} - Union Drilling is cooperating fully with the well operator and all authorities in their resolution and investigation of this fire.
[13:49] {dino} cf stopped -.33
[13:50] {RonS} gs news?
[13:51] {Threei} not right now
[13:57] {Threei} BP doesn't drop wkith market this time
[13:57] {Threei} Long Setup: BP .25 brweak
[13:57] {Threei} if stays above .20
[14:00] {Threei} invalidated
[14:00] {Threei} word of the day
[14:07] {jfjf64} s bp .10 break
[14:09] {jfjf64} nope
[14:12] {Threei} [14:00] {Threei} invalidated
[14:12] {Threei} [14:00] {Threei} word of the day
[14:12] {jfjf64} lol
[14:14] {jfjf64} better then STOP
[14:14] {Les} faz breakout?
[14:15] {Threei} looks like
[14:15] {Threei} but heck
[14:15] {Les} buy first
[14:15] {Les} invalidate after
[14:15] {Threei} that's what I don't want
[14:17] {jfjf64} BP .35 break vad
[14:17] {Threei} no
[14:17] {Les} l FAZ .71 half
[14:17] {Threei} today's stratagey must be different
[14:18] {Threei} strategy too
[14:18] {Threei} let breakout go, wait for a drop, wait for breakdown to form, then buy
[14:18] {Threei} shaking out those who went for breakdown, stock will return to your original breakout and above
[14:19] {Threei} see BP invaliadting .25 break, forming .10 breakdown, bouncing all the way back and above
[14:19] {Threei} how may times today it happened?
[14:21] {larisa} too may :)
[14:22] {jfjf64} workin as we speak bp
[14:23] {jfjf64} .35 breakout
[14:23] {jfjf64} ect
[14:23] {jfjf64} correct
[14:26] {Les} managed to screw the stop loss on my FAZ l. stopped -.02.
[14:34] {RonS} aapl rotten
[14:35] {RonS} jobs says aapl to have aids...
[14:35] {RonS} wait, that was iads...
[14:37] {Threei} so, just as we discussed break or headfake, market reversed and dropped back to low
[14:37] {Threei} thus, we again have this eternal question
[14:37] {Threei} breakdown or headfake
[14:38] {Threei} (EU) EU's Juncker: Confirms that EU finance ministers have confirmed the details of the 750B Euro Zone bailout package
[14:41] {Threei} bailout package, to be "functional" this month
[14:41] {Threei} - Fiscal policy stance in the Euro Zone will clearly be "restrictive" by 2011.
[14:41] {Threei} - Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) will be set up as a limited liability corporation to administer the bailout package.
[14:41] {Threei} - To hire CEO for the SPV soon.
[14:42] {Threei} Europe will pursue fiscal consolidation after 2011.
[14:42] {Threei} wow
[14:42] {Threei} ambitious
[14:42] {Threei} good luck
[14:42] {nemo} funny, actually
[14:42] {Les} voters say "over our dead bodies"
[14:43] {Threei} no kidding
[14:43] {Threei} fiscal consolidation? wars were fought over less significant issues
[14:43] {Threei} one actually over pretty lady
[14:44] {Threei} pretty by that time standards btw
[14:45] {Threei} - Estonia has won ministerial approval to join the Euro Zone from 2011.
[14:45] {Threei} {Estonia} did I really?
[14:46] {RonS} ...the city of denver has become estonia.
[14:46] {Les} With Russian tanks on border saying otherwise...
[14:46] {RonS} ...more pot dispensaries than starbucks...
[14:46] {nemo} things might fall off the cliff here
[14:46] {Threei} (EU) EU's Rehn: There now is zero uncertainty on Europe's promise to provide 440M in financial backing, if needed
[14:46] {Threei} thank goodness, said market and dropped
[14:46] {Les} good. s AUY .92
[14:46] {RonS} aapl is really heavy...
[14:47] {nemo} unless they can't float the bill
[14:48] {Threei} by the way, ancient Freeks were the ones warring over that damsel
[14:48] {Threei} Greeks
[14:49] {RonS} freeky too...
[14:49] {Threei} lol
[14:49] {Threei} freudian mistype
[14:50] {RonS} ...actually the ancient celts were the freaky ones...
[14:50] {Les} cover half auy +.08
[14:53] {Threei} (IA) US planning to provide the resolution on Iran this week
[14:53] {Threei} - Note: Germany, Russia, and China among other members of security council voiced their support over the weekend
[14:54] {RonS} ...how do you spell weak?
[14:55] {RonS} ...the Chinese won't even reign in that idiot in no. korea
[14:55] {Threei} self-reigning USA is the only one successfully fighting for the title of self-imposed idiocy
[14:56] {Les} faz 17 break?
[14:56] {RonS} ...and the russian are going to prevaricate while they bask in their delusion of granduer.
[14:56] {Threei} chart wise, yes... all today's expertience wise, no
[14:56] {Threei} don't know what to say Les
[14:57] {nemo} fas more likely at the moment les
[14:57] {Threei} everything in me says market is not done punishing everything and everyone for Europe
[14:57] {Threei} but it doesn't translate into entries today
[14:57] {dino} ok chaos time, back in 10
[14:58] {Threei} oh good
[14:58] {Threei} now dino factor is being introduced too
[14:58] {nemo} that means faz should work
[14:59] {Les} I'm in
[14:59] {nemo} I was kidding?
[14:59] {Les} yeh yeh
[14:59] {nemo} [14:56] {nemo} fas more likely at the moment les
[14:59] {Les} get a life man
[15:00] {Les} let me put smiley face here:
[15:00] {Les} :)
[15:00] {Les} there, a joke nemo. it was a joke
[15:00] {nemo} you stopped out yet?
[15:01] {Les} yeh
[15:01] {Threei} I was not about to try and actually trade these counter-setup moves today,
[15:02] {Threei} but if tomorrow we see first reversal like this, going to try
[15:02] {nemo} fcx didn't move on this little up move, but absorbing huge volume
[15:06] {Les} 2nd half auy covered +.03
[15:09] {patience} i went all in around 1:30 eastern time....let's see how i do with overnight holds
[15:09] {nemo} wow
[15:10] {Les} long?
[15:10] {patience} yup
[15:13] {dino} turnaround tuesday
[15:13] {nemo} nah...this is consolidation before the next big leg down :)
[15:17] {Threei} FCX short was seriously tempting
[15:17] {Threei} too bad I resisted
[15:17] {dino} issue is the ndx gap at 1796 imo
[15:17] {nemo} yeah, I watched order flow, big seller at 60, couldn't lift
[15:19] {nemo} I wonder if they'll hit the fire alarm?
[15:21] {dino} seems so
[15:21] {nemo} When Black Tuesday comes....
[15:21] {Threei} FCX bounce time
[15:22] {jfjf64} watchin
[15:22] {jfjf64} .40
[15:24] {nemo} imo no short covering today
[15:24] {nemo} big offer .25 fcx
[15:25] {nemo} gone
[15:26] {Threei} one more leg down
[15:28] {jfjf64} lot fakeouts today
[15:29] {nemo} real low volume today
[15:30] {nemo} o.k. maybe this week we get the fas/faz cross...
[15:30] {jfjf64} boy not to long ago we had our 11k hats on
[15:30] {nemo} what's this "we" stuff Tanto?
[15:30] {Threei} look at it this way: we now have two more parties ahead,
[15:31] {Threei} for 10K and 11K
[15:31] {Threei} and if we are lucky to drop under 9K, three
[15:31] {jfjf64} 9k
[15:31] {RonS} ...or 9k and 8k...
[15:31] {jfjf64} hope
[15:31] {Threei} yup
[15:31] {nemo} or 7 and 6
[15:31] {jfjf64} fcx dropin
[15:31] {nemo} then of course, there's the Armageddon party
[15:31] {jfjf64} .56--.50
[15:32] {nemo} might get a bit of a bounce here if market bounces
[15:33] {RonS} ...kinda feel guilty...just noticed mags not here...
[15:33] {Threei} he left 20 min ago
[15:34] {jfjf64} one more leg down
[15:34] {jfjf64} fcx
[15:34] {Threei} .80 break
[15:34] {Threei} rime to try
[15:34] {jfjf64} k
[15:34] {dino} 118.87 euro/fxe
[15:35] {Threei} half out
[15:35] {Threei} or scalp if you want
[15:35] {jfjf64} ty
[15:35] {jfjf64} +13
[15:35] {dino} whr sm l .24
[15:41] {dino} stopped -.35
[15:42] {Threei} somewhat disappopinting day for me, even though positive
[15:42] {Threei} I had this feeling from Friday that we are in serous wave of selling
[15:42] {Threei} and couldn't find reloable short entries
[15:42] {nemo} Black Tuesday :)
[15:42] {jfjf64} fcx burried
[15:43] {jfjf64} wow
[15:46] {dino} -20% in 4 days
[15:48] {RonS} pretty much tracking the price of copper...although there was some significant negative separation today
[15:49] {dino} ndx filled
[15:52] {dino} fcx was 91 in april, brutal
[15:54] {jfjf64} good day all
[15:54] {RonS} cya jf
[15:55] {Les} not really. hoping tomorrow is better. ciao jf
[15:55] {Threei} take care jf
[15:55] {jfjf64} ciao
[15:55] {jfjf64} tell admin will touch base
[15:57] {dino} later all, thx
[15:57] {Les} ciao
[15:57] {RonS} cya dino
[15:57] {Threei} take care dino
[15:57] {Threei} thank you all
[15:57] {Les} night
[15:57] {Threei} have a good evining, see you tomorrow
[15:57] {Les} u too


Friday, June 4, 2010

Jun 04 2010

The cleanest trade of the day was found by one of room members. Really highly rewarding for me when this happens. RIMM DBI type of short play, textbook setup. Notice that one of the arrows on the chart shows practically the same setup forming and working earlier, before we started watching it. I just pointed it with an arrow, not outlining the details of setup - use it for practice purposes, find the trigger and stop level.


Uneven day for us, as market has stalled for a long time rendering much of the day inactive. We spotted the main trend right though, utilizing it with FAZ long on 16 break and other shorts plays.

Session Time: Fri Jun 04 00:00:00 2010

[08:11] {Threei} US) Preview: May Unemployment Rate data due out at 08:30ET (12:30 GMT)
[08:11] {Threei} - Consensus expectations at 9.8%e v 9.9% prior (analyst range of estimates seen from 9.6% to 10.0%)
[08:15] {magoo} morning
[08:15] {Threei} hey mags
[08:15] {nemo} mags :)
[08:21] {Threei} OTP.HU Trading halted
[08:21] {Threei} - Note: OTP bank is 25% weighted in main Hungary index
[08:21] {Threei} let the panic begin?
[08:23] {magoo} i know its speculation, but thoughts for today? good numbers=pop, drop, pop
[08:24] {nemo} probably depends on how many are considered census jobs, and how many are real private sector jobs
[08:24] {Threei} my working assumption is:
[08:24] {nemo} drop because it was leaked it would be good?
[08:24] {Threei} any attemot to rally will be used to sell as much as possible,
[08:24] {nemo} this hungary news makes it more dangerous to go long into the weekend
[08:24] {Threei} Europian situation being the biggest factor,
[08:24] {nemo} :)
[08:25] {nemo} not as dumb as I look...
[08:25] {Threei} since contagion is not likely to be conotained
[08:25] {Threei} and these job numbers can't be taken seriously
[08:25] {Threei} I mean, in context of a sneaky bull market they would be bought, of course
[08:26] {Threei} but we are rather in "be ready to panic" environment
[08:26] {Threei} EUR/USD Brown Brothers' Head of Currency Strat Chandler: Euro headed much lower
[08:27] {Threei} EUR/USD (FR) French PM spokesperson: Comments made by Fillon on euro did not refer to parity
[08:27] {Threei} - Comments refered to euro rate evolution
[08:30] {nemo} lookout below
[08:30] {Threei} US) MAY CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: 431K V 536KE; CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS: 41K V 180KE
[08:30] {Threei} US) MAY AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.3% V 0.1%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 34.2V 34.1E
[08:30] {Threei} - Prior Average Hourly Earnings MoM revised from 0.0% to %
[08:30] {nemo} owwwwwwwwww
[08:31] {nemo} so...government told the truth...omfg
[08:32] {magoo} dow down 161
[08:32] {Threei} how's that prediction of economy works for you, mr president?
[08:34] {nemo} too early to start drinking?
[08:35] {nemo} volume starting to come into faz
[08:38] {magoo} how could idiots gov't leak "big numbers"?
[08:38] {Threei} ummmm
[08:38] {magoo} they rose expectations for a shit number
[08:38] {Threei} choosing between answers, I feel like a kid in a candy store mags
[08:39] {magoo} :)
[08:39] {Threei} god, I wish you guys spoke russian
[08:39] {Threei} english is not rich enough in this department
[08:40] {magoo} jesus, saying its all the census employees
[08:40] {magoo} neg numbers when completed
[08:40] {Threei} yes
[08:40] {Threei} - Census related hiring: +411K v +66K prior
[08:41] {magoo} short vxx here vad?scalp
[08:41] {nemo} what's worse, those census jobs are not just double counted, many are counted as many as 10 times
[08:41] {Threei} MAY CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: 431K V 536KE; CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS: 41K V 180KE
[08:41] {Threei} - Change in Manufacturing payrolls: 29K v 33Ke
[08:41] {nemo} the private payroll is the killer
[08:41] {Threei} mags, VXX is not really a good tracker
[08:42] {Threei} and shakes out so violently and unpredicatble, it's a horror to trade
[08:42] {Threei} - Prior Private payrolls revised lower from 231K to 218K (widely expected to be revised higher)
[08:42] {Threei} yikes
[08:44] {Threei} didn't we hear quite a few times from the president lately that most hiring occurs in private sector?
[08:45] {Threei} U.S. nonfarm payrolls expanded by a seasonally adjusted 431,000 in May, but virtually all the new jobs were temporary jobs at the U.S. Census, leaving private-sector hiring very weak in May, the Labor Department reported Friday. Excluding 411,000 temporary Census workers, payrolls rose by 20,000 in May. According to the survey of 400,000 business establishments, private-sector payrolls increased by 41,000, the fifth straight gain. The unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 9.7% in May from 9.9% in April, according to a separate survey of 60,000 households. The decline wasn't particularly good news, however, because the drop was due to 322,000 people dropping out of the labor force."
[08:45] {dptl} good morning
[08:45] {Threei} dp :)
[09:00] {Threei} EU) France Fin Min Lagarde: G20 has been reassured by the European rescue package
[09:00] {Threei} - Reiterates euro is a credible currency
[09:00] {Threei} - Says ECB has acted responsibly
[09:00] {Threei} - Reiterates euro is a credible currency {--- yep
[09:00] {Threei} so credible that there is a need to reiterate this point every single day
[09:00] {Threei} multiple times
[09:01] {Threei} and banks needed no more capital
[09:03] {Threei} British Petroleum plc Future decisions on dividend will be decided by the board
[09:03] {Threei} - Has spent over $1B over the oil spill;
[09:03] {Threei} - Says there is still much to be done on the
[09:03] {Threei} - Long-term environmental costs will be spread over the years
[09:03] {Threei} - Is prepared to meet costs on environmental, claims and litigations
[09:05] {Threei} (HU) Goldman analyst: Comments about a "Greece-like crisis" in Hungary do not hold up; Hungary is unlikely to abandon its IMF program (timing uncertain)
[09:05] {Threei} - Expects Fidesz to continue the prior administration's policies
[09:05] {Threei} ***Note that in 2008 Hungary agreed to deficit targets when it obtained a 20B bailout from the IMF, the European Union and the World Bank
[09:05] {dino} gm all, obamination blew it again w/jobs hint
[09:06] {Threei} yup
[09:06] {Threei} big time
[09:06] {Threei} BP dump continues
[09:07] {dino} guy is clueless
[09:08] {magoo} BP shortable today vad, i checked
[09:10] {dino} mind the gaps
[09:10] {dino} 5/26; 9974, 1796, 1067 & 1070 6/1
[09:11] {Threei} I did some tracking job for you, as a matter of progress report
[09:11] {Threei} according to my observations,
[09:11] {Threei} within two weeks span,
[09:11] {Threei} he went from "frustrated"
[09:11] {Threei} to "angry"
[09:11] {Threei} climaxing today at "furious"
[09:12] {Threei} well, at least I hope it's a climax
[09:12] {Threei} because what's next, blowing a vein?
[09:14] {RonS} gm all- what is with the strength in the airlines?
[09:15] {RonS} my trip last week was an absolute horror show
[09:15] {Threei} hi ron
[09:15] {Threei} what happened?
[09:16] {Threei} I see airlines in red
[09:16] {RonS} 2 planes had mechanical failure...4 1/2 hr delay...missed connection...overnight in SF w/o bag
[09:16] {Threei} yikes
[09:17] {RonS} 2 hr customer service line...50 min hotel check-in
[09:18] {RonS} uaua pilot told me that they have stripped the fleet to the point they are running remaining 24/7 and mechanical probs are coming up all over the place
[09:19] {nemo} I'm either driving or taking trains from now on
[09:19] {dino} +431k headline, govt hires +390k, birth/death adj -215k, leaves -174k private hiring. is obamaination smoking "crack" talking about strong jobs on wed.?
[09:19] {lasertrev} gm
[09:19] {RonS} TSA is an absolute joke...you can take lighters on planes now
[09:20] {shorty} moring all
[09:21] {RonS} TSA could not dispose of the lighters per EPA w/o hazmat...so they chucked it
[09:21] {dino} lol
[09:22] {RonS} kafkaesque
[09:22] {Threei} trev :)
[09:27] {RonS} ya know the real story this week is that the Euro banks are not lending to one another, and that the corp credit market is frozen
[09:27] {RonS} TED spread has doubled in a month
[09:30] {jfjf64} mornin
[09:31] {Threei} jf :)
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS .35
[09:32] {Threei} if stays under .45
[09:32] {Threei} invalidated
[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: BP .75 break
[09:35] {Threei} stop above .85
[09:35] {Threei} invalidated
[09:35] {Threei} shrug
[09:35] {shorty} stopped
[09:35] {jfjf64} deep breath
[09:35] {Threei} did it trigger?
[09:36] {shorty} ya .74
[09:36] {Threei} didn't see it typing
[09:36] {dino} guess who's coming on tv
[09:36] {nemo} winona ryder
[09:36] {Threei} (US) White House Advisor Romer: Jobs growth is moving in an upward trajectory
[09:36] {Threei} yup
[09:37] {dino} "new math" i guess
[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup: WFC .25
[09:39] {Threei} if stays above .20
[09:39] {Threei} target about 1:2 - 1:3
[09:40] {magoo} in
[09:41] {Threei} if FAS blows through 23, could be more
[09:41] {Threei} over 1:1
[09:42] {Threei} FAS broke
[09:42] {dino} fdx sm l .29
[09:43] {Threei} a litle follow through would be nice
[09:43] {magoo} LVS sick lately
[09:43] {magoo} strongest ever
[09:43] {Threei} half out .34
[09:44] {Threei} out second half
[09:44] {dino} sheesh, he brought joe w/him
[09:44] {Threei} scalpers win
[09:44] {jfjf64} that wdd be I
[09:44] {jfjf64} TY
[09:44] {Threei} sure
[09:45] {nemo} I'm impressed jf
[09:45] {jfjf64} quick on sell
[09:46] {jfjf64} cost me plenty though
[09:46] {nemo} no, your use of pronouns with an intransitive verb
[09:46] {dino} he's bragging about the jobs report, unbelievable\
[09:46] {nemo} market retracing as his nose grows
[09:47] {jfjf64} lvs
[09:48] {jfjf64} any read vad
[09:48] {Threei} not yet
[09:48] {Threei} but watching
[09:49] {jfjf64} that last leg down nicee but no clear support for entry
[09:50] {jfjf64} grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
[09:50] {Threei} just jumped back up with no clear entry
[09:50] {jfjf64} yes
[09:50] {jfjf64} thought i mentioned that sensi
[09:50] {jfjf64} lol
[09:51] {nemo} go wax off jf
[09:51] {Threei} I don't read what I say
[09:51] {Threei} you want me to rfead what others say?
[09:51] {Threei} here, I tried and read for once, look what it is:
[09:51] {Threei} (US) US President Obama: Jobs report data shows the progress in the recovering economy, many jobs were in fact temporary census positions
[09:51] {jfjf64} nemo that not nice
[09:51] {dino} clh gap fill
[09:51] {Threei} now wait for my puking reflex to go away
[09:52] {nemo} what were you expecting from me jf?
[09:52] {dino} market does not careanymore, going up
[09:52] {jfjf64} where my frind les
[09:53] {jfjf64} put ya lvs hat on 3i
[09:54] {Threei} .27 long
[09:54] {Threei} if holding .20
[09:54] {dino} clh sm l .73 thin
[09:54] {nemo} spy probably going to 109.50
[09:55] {Threei} no go
[09:55] {RonS} akam?
[09:55] {jfjf64} its early
[09:55] {shorty} would you call that a double top on LVS Threei?
[09:55] {dino} china plays hold well, pwrd, rino, cagc, ctrp
[09:55] {nemo} lvs bounce at .10 or .00?
[09:55] {Threei} unconfirmed so far
[09:55] {Threei} but yes
[09:55] {shorty} ty
[09:56] {Threei} not really tradeable, Ron
[09:56] {Threei} AKAM I mean
[09:56] {Threei} spread is jumpy, can get thin suddenly
[09:56] {dino} ferts not bad either imo
[09:57] {RonS} thx
[09:58] {shorty} LVS short .09
[10:00] {jfjf64} 25.10 lot of resistance yest lvs
[10:00] {shorty} out .93
[10:00] {jfjf64} correct
[10:02] {Les} .
[10:02] {jfjf64} les what up ppal
[10:02] {Les} banned from mibbit, but not here. go figure?
[10:02] {shorty} weird
[10:03] {Threei} lol
[10:03] {Threei} mibbit has no restraints of its own
[10:03] {jfjf64} vads way of messin with us
[10:03] {Threei} it's just the way to connect
[10:04] {Les} FAZ .60 with a .55 stop? if holding
[10:04] {Threei} LVS
[10:04] {Threei} 25 break
[10:04] {Threei} if holding .90 obviously
[10:04] {Threei} invalidated
[10:05] {Threei} can't tell on FAZ
[10:05] {Les} l faz .61 stop under .55
[10:05] {Threei} it has no setup of its own here, and I don't have firm grip on market overall at the moment
[10:05] {Les} ok
[10:06] {dino} fdx stopped
[10:06] {Les} 1:1 I'll take it
[10:06] {Threei} why not
[10:07] {Threei} kind of free money
[10:07] {Les} you are right market wishy washy here
[10:07] {Threei} looking at BP
[10:07] {Threei} maybe we can find short entry finally
[10:08] {Threei} 38 break...
[10:08] {Threei} so-so, but the only thing I see here
[10:08] {shorty} in .98
[10:08] {Threei} stop above .10
[10:08] {shorty} ok
[10:09] {Threei} nah
[10:09] {shorty} done
[10:09] {RonS} BP's cap funneling oil to the surface-Coast Guard 06/04 08:07 AM
[10:09] {Les} and its toxic chemicals disperse it to four corners of American beaches?
[10:10] {Les} sounds like good plan
[10:10] {jfjf64} lvs broke 25
[10:10] {jfjf64} no trigger
[10:10] {jfjf64} grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
[10:10] {Threei} better yet - oil is predicted to reach Europe, Les
[10:10] {shorty} caught lvs .01 out .06 then .11
[10:10] {Les} well Mediterranean is already screwed
[10:11] {jfjf64} careful shorty
[10:11] {Les} they could really screw spanish economy and close their beaches too... :)
[10:12] {shorty} Trying jfj64. Keeping my stops.
[10:13] {Threei} feels up to me...
[10:14] {jfjf64} eca 5 min looks good
[10:14] {Threei} LVS
[10:14] {dino} sm l ups .75
[10:15] {Threei} lol... general feeling of market gathering for upward thrust was right, SPY and FAS went up,
[10:15] {jfjf64} lvs??
[10:15] {Threei} but no setup to use at all
[10:15] {Les} l crus .03 look at daily
[10:15] {jfjf64} .15 break
[10:16] {RonS} gs green
[10:17] {Threei} GS Ticks higher as SEC settlement chatter circulates again
[10:17] {Threei} - Note: Goldman has until the middle of June to respond to the SEC's charges. (143.52, -0.52, -0.36%) (related XLF )
[10:19] {Threei} IMO,
[10:19] {Threei} market, with all the headfakes and shakeouts wants higher today
[10:20] {Threei} FAS wants .40 - .50, at least
[10:20] {Threei} problem is, I don't see clear entries
[10:20] {dino} feels that way
[10:20] {larisa} men and their feelings :)
[10:21] {Threei} yeah, we are famous for that :)
[10:21] {RonS} ...it's fun being sensitive :D
[10:22] {RonS} dino, do gap fill?
[10:22] {Threei} if willing to start trying:
[10:22] {Threei} FAS
[10:22] {Threei} 23
[10:22] {Threei} if holding .90
[10:23] {Threei} not a scalp for me
[10:23] {dino} cat sm l .75
[10:24] {dino} lol lari
[10:24] {dino} no ron
[10:25] {Threei} over 1:1
[10:26] {Threei} stop to .95 for second haf;
[10:26] {ese} good morning....welcome to my nightmare......parent phone calls and emails to deal with at 6am
[10:26] {Threei} yikes
[10:26] {Threei} hi ese
[10:26] {ese} hey vad
[10:27] {Threei} next push should be to over .20
[10:27] {Threei} plan is to sell 1/4 somewhere in .25 vicinity
[10:27] {Threei} and last peice closer to .40 - .50
[10:28] {Threei} just no shakeouts pls
[10:29] {Threei} with 13 cents banked and 4 cents risk, I think it's worth it
[10:29] {Threei} vs taking a scalp I mean
[10:31] {Threei} wolves decided otherwise
[10:32] {ese} L pten .62
[10:32] {Les} half out crus .10 +.07
[10:33] {Threei} did I just hear this for real?
[10:34] {Threei} "I would love to spend my time venting and yelling at people... but this is not the job I was elected to do"
[10:34] {nemo} ?
[10:34] {nemo} omg
[10:34] {Threei} exact quote
[10:35] {Les} he thinks people want him to get mad at others?
[10:35] {Les} doesn't realise people are mad at him
[10:37] {Threei} SPY and FAS lost direct connection
[10:37] {Threei} there is some of course but not as close as used to be
[10:37] {Les} another quarter Crus sold .20
[10:37] {dino} a clueless egomaniac
[10:40] {Les} anyone go for CRUS?
[10:42] {dino} scanners all green
[10:42] {Threei} CRUS nice find
[10:43] {Les} 1:3 all out CRUS
[10:49] {Threei} Long Setup: AIG half lot 35 break
[10:49] {Threei} if stays abive .90
[10:50] {nemo} lvs completing wedge
[10:51] {Threei} AIG's holding very well, now needs some market help
[10:52] {dino} problem is day 2 started
[10:53] {jfjf64} 3 centt spread aig
[10:54] {Threei} sigh
[10:54] {Threei} no help
[10:55] {nemo} and then snaps right back
[10:55] {nemo} volumes are solid
[10:59] {jfjf64} think start drinkin early todayyyyyyyyyyyyy
[11:00] {nemo} [08:34] {nemo} too early to start drinking?
[11:01] {jfjf64} lol
[11:01] {nemo} white wine is o.k. before noon, yes
[11:01] {nemo} ?
[11:01] {nemo} grape juice :)
[11:02] {shorty} Red wine too? It's grape juice, right?
[11:02] {Les} lovely warm afternoon here. beer o'clock started an hour ago.
[11:02] {nemo} sure
[11:02] {nemo} that means port too
[11:03] {nemo} o.k. jf, you persuaded me
[11:03] {jfjf64} gin dan
[11:04] {jfjf64} sig in one hand beer in other wayv to go nem
[11:05] {nemo} never thought of that
[11:05] {nemo} gotta' get the m4 out
[11:06] {jfjf64} hey 3i on fridays will ya be doing recap of charts
[11:07] {shorty} M4? I don't have a lot of friends nemo, but you know you are one of them, right?
[11:07] {Threei} recap?
[11:07] {Threei} all of them?
[11:07] {jfjf64} best of
[11:07] {nemo} too funny shorty
[11:07] {jfjf64} lol
[11:07] {Threei} gosh... more work?
[11:07] {jfjf64} really nice though
[11:07] {jfjf64} like it
[11:08] {Threei} ty
[11:08] {nemo} yeah, looks great
[11:08] {Threei} but so far, this is far as I am willing to go in adding workload
[11:08] {jfjf64} babby steps
[11:08] {Les} my 1:6 FAZ trade didn't even make it on the trading log yesterday :(
[11:09] {dino} sm l fdx .23
[11:09] {Threei} huh?
[11:09] {Threei} one that happened when I was not here?
[11:09] {nemo} rimm maybe short?
[11:09] {Les} yeh, I was so proud of that
[11:10] {jfjf64} lk it nemo
[11:10] {Threei} so how do you suppose I should jknow about it?
[11:10] {nemo} looks good
[11:10] {jfjf64} .99
[11:10] {jfjf64} in
[11:10] {Les} you didn't even read the log when you got back :(
[11:10] {dino} you have that 3rd eye, you should have seen the les trade
[11:10] {Threei} Les... what log?
[11:11] {Threei} if my computer is not connected, where would the log come from?
[11:11] {nemo} he published a clipped log when he left
[11:11] {Les} how are we able to maintain a log now if your computer isn't connected?
[11:11] {Threei} log it on your computer
[11:11] {Threei} via mirc
[11:11] {Les} server is somewhere else is it?
[11:12] {Threei} this is not a server log, this is local computer
[11:12] {nemo} jf, rimm looks like Qs
[11:12] {Threei} server is not logging them
[11:12] {jfjf64} that goodd or bad
[11:12] {nemo} as goes Qs so goes Rimm
[11:13] {jfjf64} comon rimm
[11:14] {Threei} with market help, can drop to about .65
[11:15] {nemo} scalp and scrap day
[11:16] {Threei} well, you have 1:1
[11:16] {nemo} wow index strength(if you want to call it that) and rimm weakness
[11:16] {Les} looking for a gap close on ANF to .25 s.81 small
[11:16] {Threei} to me, looks capable of more
[11:16] {jfjf64} half out
[11:16] {nemo} yeah, given that relationship
[11:18] {Threei} 1:2
[11:19] {jfjf64} 1/4 .77
[11:19] {Threei} 1:3
[11:19] {nemo} the broken clock strikes again!!
[11:20] {jfjf64} done
[11:20] {Threei} and here is my .65
[11:20] {jfjf64} nice findNEMO
[11:20] {Threei} over and out
[11:21] {Threei} beautiful
[11:21] {Threei} that makes today's chart of the day
[11:21] {Threei} textbook
[11:21] {jfjf64} LOL
[11:21] {Les} what a load of horse manure!
[11:21] {nemo} Les...it was text book
[11:21] {Threei} excuse me?
[11:21] {Les} just baggin nemo
[11:21] {jfjf64} ??les
[11:22] {Threei} oh... feel free then
[11:22] {RonS} euro looking to break 1.20 but being defended
[11:22] {Les} he knows who those comments were directed to
[11:22] {Les} I took CRUS for a .20 ride down
[11:22] {Threei} but you never alerted that
[11:22] {Les} so missed your RIMM nemo. but good call
[11:22] {nemo} :)
[11:23] {jfjf64} nemo ya missed
[11:25] {jfjf64} well i will tk it as early bday present nemo ty
[11:30] {nemo} RIMM, the gift that keeps on giving :)
[11:31] {Threei} Euro vs US Dollar Euro approaching 1.20 figure for fresh 4-year lows
[11:31] {Threei} - Last tested below the 1.20 handle on Mar 27th 2006
[11:35] {RonS} busted it
[11:36] {Les} crus .75 b/d
[11:37] {Threei} EUR/USD *BREAKS BELOW 1.2000
[11:37] {Threei} reminder 1.18 is the next big level dealers are fucusing on as it was the level at the launch
[11:37] {Threei} fucusing, eh
[11:37] {nemo} rimm looks long
[11:38] {nemo} he speaks threeeish
[11:39] {nemo} think rimm could go to .90-.95
[11:42] {nemo} Qs hit the 200, that might be it for rimm unless they break through
[11:43] {Les} which I've updated to now
[11:43] {Les} looking at how piss weak this market is
[11:43] {Les} wouldn't be suprised to see sell off and falling out of this wedge/off a cliff
[11:44] {Les} but I'm open to anything
[11:44] {magoo} what u got DINO?
[11:45] {Les} or Dino's trades could work superbly today :)
[11:45] {dino} waiting
[11:45] {magoo} flat?
[11:45] {dino} otm on a few small ones
[11:45] {dino} ups, fdx
[11:46] {dino} watching clh break of .50, was good to me earlier
[11:47] {nemo} getting a longer base in lvs
[11:48] {dino} mat try cat again
[11:49] {dino} may
[11:49] {Les} gold miners going for it
[11:50] {nemo} frickin LVS breaking trend
[11:50] {shorty} dino, went long on FDX .75, thought you might care.
[11:50] {dino} uso confuses me
[11:50] {nemo} ?
[11:51] {dino} ok shorty
[11:51] {dino} uso, stopping drilling and drops
[11:51] {Les} uso not just a casino stock?
[11:52] {dino} us oil fund
[11:52] {dino} altho, all stocks are like casino betting
[11:53] {dino} rino holds well
[11:53] {Les} yeh, but being abused like its a gambling stock dino. I see no fundamentals for it
[11:53] {dino} ok
[11:53] {dino} ed's up, apol, esi
[11:53] {Les} my impression anyway
[11:54] {dino} everything imo les
[11:54] {RonS} uso, ung get played when they are forced to roll their futures contracts. as a result they are worthless imo
[11:57] {Les} crap miners really going for it
[11:57] {RonS} gld running
[11:58] {nemo} hungary
[11:58] {RonS} eat lunch
[11:58] {nemo} having a liquid one :)
[11:59] {nemo} x look interesting vad
[11:59] {Threei} hmmm
[12:00] {Threei} I'd say short vs long is 51/49... :)
[12:00] {nemo} order at .77
[12:00] {Les} $ rocketing too
[12:00] {Les} something happened just now?
[12:00] {Les} any news?
[12:00] {nemo} .76 the low
[12:01] {Threei} well
[12:01] {Threei} HU) Hungary Opposition Party chief: Country not near default
[12:01] {Threei} - Reminder: Earlier the new Fidesz Govt claimed that the prior Govt manipulated economic figures that default was not an exaggeration
[12:01] {Threei} - Note: Earlier the Former Fin MIn claimed that Hungary was in no way near default
[12:01] {nemo} Les, Euro got pummeled that's why $ going
[12:01] {Threei} see, twice a day they said Hungary is not near default
[12:01] {Les} so what happened? just technical trading?
[12:01] {Les} oh ok
[12:01] {Threei} first time traders got suspicious
[12:01] {nemo} Methinks they protesteth too much
[12:01] {Threei} second, they got reassured that indeed is the case, lol
[12:01] {nemo} bye X
[12:01] {Threei} it's pure case of "bank needs no more capital"
[12:02] {nemo} I'm frickin clairvoyant today
[12:02] {dino} the siren song
[12:02] {nemo} I should drink more often
[12:03] {Les} s APOL .09. riding market down
[12:03] {dino} 10k coming fast
[12:03] {Les} haha there goes that the rising wedge
[12:04] {shorty} stopped FDX
[12:05] {Threei} this is from this morning:
[12:05] {Threei} 09:00] {Threei} EU) France Fin Min Lagarde: G20 has been reassured by the European rescue package
[12:05] {Threei} [09:00] {Threei} - Reiterates euro is a credible currency
[12:05] {Threei} [09:00] {Threei} - Says ECB has acted responsibly
[12:05] {Threei} [09:00] {Threei} - Reiterates euro is a credible currency {--- yep
[12:05] {Threei} [09:00] {Threei} so credible that there is a need to reiterate this point every single day
[12:05] {Threei} [09:00] {Threei} multiple times
[12:05] {Threei} [09:01] {Threei} and banks needed no more capital
[12:07] {Les} cover APOL +.20
[12:08] {jfjf64} back miss anythin
[12:08] {Threei} we are about to go in panic mode it feels
[12:08] {jfjf64} wow lk at rimm
[12:09] {nemo} Black Friday before Black Monday it's the Apocyclipse
[12:11] {dino} fdx sm l .50
[12:12] {dino} gj les
[12:13] {Threei} this bounce is a good opportunity to start looking for short entries, IMO
[12:13] {nemo} rimm still weak even with Qs rising
[12:15] {Threei} GRMN Receives Court Approval for Change of Place of Incorporation to Switzerland (31.97, -0.81, -2.47%)
[12:16] {Threei} from the Cayman Islands
[12:16] {Threei} Les takes business away from poor islanders
[12:17] {dino} so close to dji gap
[12:17] {dino} clh sm l .51 wide
[12:18] {Threei} meanwhile, all the problems being solved,
[12:18] {Threei} FDA notes that new warnings on smokeless tobacco ads begin June 22
[12:20] {Threei} looking at FAZ, does it feel like 16 break will be launching pad?
[12:20] {Threei} daily chart
[12:21] {shorty} out UPS +.30
[12:21] {dino} gj
[12:21] {jfjf64} that a boy shorty
[12:21] {shorty} ty
[12:22] {Threei} quite a progress in short two months, eh
[12:22] {shorty} Still make some stupid moves though Threei. But, I am having more fun.
[12:22] {Threei} well, I have bad news and good news
[12:23] {shorty} They will continue.
[12:23] {Threei} bad is, making stupid moves will continues for a while
[12:23] {Threei} getting rid of them is not an event, it's a process
[12:24] {jfjf64} agree
[12:24] {Threei} good news is, they will be less frequent and their outcome will be less destructive,
[12:24] {jfjf64} 1 year process
[12:24] {jfjf64} 4 me
[12:24] {Threei} until at some point they'll become just an insignificant part of the routine
[12:24] {Threei} time varies from 6 months to 2 years, in my observations
[12:25] {Threei} with 6 months being rare,
[12:25] {shorty} I lost a lot of money when I started this venture a few months back. I am afraid to say it but, it's about 3k up until today.
[12:25] {Threei} anothere from year to two being closer to norm
[12:25] {Threei} anothere?
[12:25] {Threei} anywhere
[12:25] {Les} I'm doing better this week shorty
[12:25] {shorty} I can tell Les.
[12:26] {Les} Trev close to having my account ready
[12:26] {Les} started to focus my trading
[12:26] {Les} hardest part is ditching dubious setups
[12:26] {Les} but as this market continues to fu&% like it does now
[12:26] {Les} gets easier to see when to trade and when to have a beer
[12:27] {nemo} why are they mutually exclusive?
[12:27] {Les} because I become a horrible monster on the piss
[12:27] {nemo} ?
[12:28] {shorty} I feel less, that is for sure. That is not because of the whiskey.
[12:28] {shorty} kid crying, brb
[12:28] {dino} lol
[12:31] {jfjf64} my biggest prob year in is when i start thinkin i know what way market going when i read tape higher percent winners very simple
[12:34] {shorty} Anyone drive a suburban or an expedition? Looking for a new vehicle due to the new addition coming up in 8 months or so. Thinking van, but I might need the towing power, and no not for my fat a##.
[12:37] {Les} I recommend:
[12:37] {Les} http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citro%C3%ABn_C3
[12:38] {nemo} don't sell them over here
[12:38] {Les} you useless capitalist gas guzzling truck driving anti communist pigs
[12:38] {nemo} ty
[12:40] {dino} i like them both shorty
[12:42] {jfjf64} faz 16 watch is on
[12:43] {shorty} you drive them both dino?
[12:46] {ese} whoaaaa!!!! I'm outta here see ya Monday......phones been ringing off the hook. Vad when you look at the paper there was a student stabbeda and killed downtown last night.....He was a student at my high school...catch you all monday
[12:46] {ese} stabbed
[12:46] {Threei} ouch
[12:46] {Threei} take care ese, see you monday
[12:47] {ese} cya
[12:47] {shorty} bye ese
[12:49] {dino} no shorty, but friends had them
[12:49] {jfjf64} im out here also guys nice week ty 3i
[12:49] {dino} i have durango
[12:50] {dino} cya es, jf
[12:50] {Threei} take care jf
[12:51] {shorty} bye jfjf64
[12:54] {dptl} i suck big time....gonna take week off....see ya all in a week....have to clear my mind once again.........have a good weekend all
[12:54] {dino} cbst
[12:55] {Threei} take care dp
[12:55] {Threei} no panic
[12:55] {dino} been tough dp
[12:55] {Threei} for now at least
[12:55] {Threei} market stabilized
[12:55] {Threei} but feels very fragile
[12:56] {RonS} cbst news 3i?
[12:56] {dino} news cbst?
[12:56] {dino} nothing at yahoo
[12:57] {dino} or cyber
[12:58] {shorty} cya dptl
[12:58] {Threei} BP S&P lowers rating one notch to AA- from AA
[12:58] {Threei} - Follows Fitch and Moody's yesterday
[12:59] {Threei} CBST, no single line since May 28
[12:59] {Threei} here it is
[12:59] {Threei} CBST Hearing strength being attributed to possible settlement with Teva on Cubicin (22.68, +1.17, 5.44%) (related TEVA )
[12:59] {dino} 23.35 waiting short
[13:00] {Threei} Note: Cubist filed the lawsuit in response to an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) filed by TPM seeking U.S. FDA approval to market a generic version of CUBICIN (daptomycin for injection) prior to the expiration of Cubists patent rights.
[13:05] {dino} in
[13:06] {dino} cov .81, +.56
[13:07] {shorty} again, deer in headlights. I watched it hit your target thinking I would join you, but nope. Nice on dino
[13:07] {dino} ty, almost got stopped
[13:07] {Threei} CBST Spokesperson reportedly declines comment on court case cancellation (22.96, +1.45, 6.74%) (related TEVA )
[13:07] {shorty} 5 min chart or 15?
[13:09] {dino} 1 min/1 day
[13:11] {dino} brb
[13:17] {nemo} crissakes, we coulda' gone short anything and left for the day
[13:17] {dino} out clh flat
[13:17] {shorty} lol nemo
[13:18] {dino} gaps dji 9974, s/p 1070 and 1067
[13:18] {dino} ndx should not come into play today imo
[13:18] {Threei} again coming panic feel returns
[13:18] {larisa} feelings again ? :)
[13:22] {Threei} yeah
[13:22] {Threei} something's worng wirth me
[13:22] {Threei} really :)
[13:23] {Threei} RIMM short...
[13:24] {Threei} quite tempting
[13:27] {Threei} hit 1:1 if you got tempetd
[13:33] {dino} clh held
[13:36] {Threei} Fox's Gasparino: Pay Czar Feinberg may be looking to pursue clawbacks on some financial firms for 2008 compensation
[13:37] {Threei} is he pay czar or no pay czar?
[13:39] {Threei} reminds me a soviet policeman from a joke - guy refused to break up street fight motivating his decison by ity being a disorder... while his job description was to maintain order
[13:46] {shorty} lol..Threei
[13:46] {shorty} no crickets here
[13:50] {Threei} total stall
[13:54] {dino} bth taking a bath
[13:54] {Threei} panic comes closer
[13:54] {Threei} {larisa} enough with feelings already
[13:55] {dino} you talking to yourself
[13:55] {Threei} what can I do if no one elese wants to talk to me
[13:55] {dino} just sign
[13:56] {dino} out
[13:56] {dino} lol
[13:56] {dino} here come the gaps
[13:56] {Threei} but then how do I pretened that I do have some lively conversations
[13:57] {dino} lively? thats pushing it :O
[13:57] {Threei} we are talking about my imagination, remember?
[13:57] {dino} indeed
[13:58] {Les} we putting you on the couch for a consultation Vad?
[13:59] {Threei} that's not the turn of the conversation I envisioned
[13:59] {dino} sheesh give the s/p 5 pts down and get the gap outta the way
[14:02] {Les} fdx 80 b/d looking good. stop a bit wide
[14:03] {dino} bth sm l .85 gappy
[14:03] {dino} clh .35 sm l
[14:04] {dino} gut says up
[14:05] {dino} contra-hour, lets see if it works
[14:05] {Threei} British Petroleum plc Updates cap program; oil and gas collection is from well is being gradually increased
[14:05] {Threei} - Exec: Cannot yet confirm earlier Coast guard estimate that the company is capturing 1K bpd from the well using the containment cap. To give an update each morning on oil capture rate.
[14:09] {dino} here comes the gap fill
[14:11] {Threei} FAZ broke 16
[14:15] {shorty} dino, thought on UPS?
[14:17] {Les} gut says up dino, but too frigin easy to see it IMO
[14:17] {dino} whoosh to .50s then up
[14:18] {Les} jeez, market beginning to play nice again? find that hard to believe...
[14:19] {Les} anf might a reversal candidate if the end is up
[14:20] {Threei} I hope it will
[14:20] {Threei} we are in that pattern that I hate,
[14:20] {Threei} early activity and then a stall for the rest of the day
[14:20] {Threei} hopefully it's not for long
[14:20] {Les} sneaky fdx busted stop by .02 then reversed down
[14:20] {Threei} I prefer more evenly spread out
[14:21] {Les} I must admit the reduced stress would be nice
[14:21] {Les} I don't the market very well, so am I learning at a particularly difficult time?
[14:22] {Threei} don't jump on anything that moves or pretends to move, your stress level will go way down
[14:22] {Threei} wait for real trade
[14:22] {nemo} ohhhh....jump on trades.....nevermind
[14:22] {dino} better not knowing anything les, everything i was taught about it went out the window in '08
[14:22] {Les} yeh learning that slowly
[14:22] {Les} cats and dogs nemo
[14:22] {dino} living in sin nonetheless
[14:23] {Les} really? so that was bad times?
[14:23] {dino} basically, fundamentals don't mean sh*t
[14:24] {Threei} this is not what dino means
[14:24] {Threei} trading wise it was fine
[14:24] {Threei} his pioint is:
[14:24] {dino} yes
[14:24] {Threei} everything you think you know about how economy functions and how market responds to it - forget it
[14:24] {dino} everything has changed
[14:24] {Threei} this all got screewed up badly
[14:25] {Threei} by idiots who think they can rule the economy and market
[14:25] {Threei} decree them to behave
[14:25] {Threei} will the outcome
[14:25] {Les} ok, but what I would like to know
[14:25] {Les} is am I learning the hard way?
[14:25] {Les} or is the par for the course?
[14:25] {Threei} I don't know how to answer that
[14:25] {dino} imo more violent
[14:26] {Threei} there is no particularly good or bad time to learn
[14:26] {Threei} it changes,
[14:26] {shorty} bring it on!
[14:26] {Threei} but not in terms of gopod and bad
[14:26] {Threei} more volatile or less,
[14:26] {Les} well I would have been happy to learn in 1998 vad!
[14:26] {Threei} more rapid change or less
[14:26] {Threei} bull or bear
[14:27] {Threei} etc
[14:27] {Les} ok
[14:27] {Threei} whenever you start, you will go through all of them sooner or later anyway
[14:27] {Threei} and will have to learn to recognize and adjust
[14:27] {Threei} then at some point you realize
[14:27] {dino} it always changes les, but look 08 to early 09, just pretty much down, then pretty much up. now last two months like ytrading a week in a day up/down/up/down.......
[14:28] {Threei} that even though there is something new al the time,
[14:28] {Threei} on some basic level you have already seen it all
[14:28] {Les} dino dcc
[14:29] {Les} so after 14 years can you say that you've seen this show before vad?
[14:29] {Threei} exactly
[14:29] {Threei} look at it this way
[14:29] {Threei} you may have never seen drop of 995 points in 20 min
[14:29] {Threei} but you have seen other panic selloffs
[14:29] {Threei} and this one is not any different
[14:29] {Threei} other than scale
[14:30] {Threei} and speed
[14:30] {dino} bingo, thats the difference, we do it in a day now
[14:30] {Threei} but mechanics, reasons, people's behavior - they are the same
[14:30] {dino} 1070 filled, 1067 target for bounce
[14:30] {Threei} you saw many people saying:
[14:31] {Threei} this year-long rally is manifactured, it's unnatural,
[14:31] {Threei} and trying to short it
[14:31] {Threei} you saw me saying - there is nothing unusual about it,
[14:31] {Threei} it's a trend, stay with it
[14:31] {Threei} why?
[14:31] {Threei} they never paid attention before
[14:31] {Threei} they thought they knew what market should do
[14:31] {Threei} why did I say what I did?
[14:32] {Threei} because for me, there was nothing new in the phenomenon of market going against the pbvious
[14:32] {Threei} I would be shocked if it did something different
[14:33] {Les} ok
[14:33] {Les} WFC at support
[14:33] {Threei} let me remind you one article..
[14:33] {Threei} http://blog.realitytrader.com/2009/08/trading-climate-new-or-same-old.html
[14:33] {Les} ok, while I read that have a look at wfc please
[14:36] {Threei} just moves with market
[14:36] {Threei} will do whatever market does
[14:36] {Les} yeh, looking at possible market reversal play
[14:37] {Threei} after you read it, try to look at the events of last two years from this point of view
[14:37] {Threei} and think, were they really materially different?
[14:37] {Threei} or quite predictable,
[14:37] {Threei} when you view them from trader's standpoint?
[14:37] {RonS} eur/jpy cross about to take out its lows
[14:38] {Les} well I see the Tao philosophy here
[14:38] {Les} ignoring the BS of "new paradigm"
[14:38] {Les} etc
[14:39] {Les} throwing one's beliefs out the window for a fresh start
[14:39] {shorty} "and couple I invented all on my own" I lol at that.
[14:40] {dino} 9974 filled
[14:42] {Threei} anyone went for FAZ break, let's start partialling out
[14:43] {Les} fdx struggling for direction t hese last minutes. mindful of reversal here.
[14:44] {dino} ups hit low .60s
[14:44] {Threei} so Les
[14:44] {dino} you guys just go short when i go to bus stop at 3:00
[14:44] {Threei} see now how it was not anything "new"?
[14:44] {shorty} Just thinking about that dino, you were right.
[14:45] {Les} yeh you're showing me the way from a trader's perspective
[14:45] {Les} as a uni student of politics
[14:45] {Les} and now english culture through literature
[14:45] {Les} I have been learning that "there is nothing new under the sun"
[14:46] {Les} it is useful to learn the same in economics and finance as well
[14:46] {dino} lol les, i have a bachelors' degree in business/finance, and i see that the books were pure b.s.
[14:46] {Threei} not when you understand the underlying principle
[14:46] {Threei} you just need to recognize the manifestation
[14:46] {Les} that's just it dino
[14:46] {Les} I found the basic introductions to international politics BS
[14:47] {Les} when I learnt from here and other blogs how politicians and finance functions
[14:47] {dino} yes and the intellectuals are running the govts off of books that are quite frankly, wrong
[14:48] {shorty} I would like to talk politics with you guys, but my ignorance saves me.
[14:48] {larisa} come to my corner, shorty :)
[14:48] {Les} I have put uni bachelor on suspension
[14:48] {dino} makes me think of anaconda(?) copper/fancisco
[14:48] {shorty} :) larisa
[14:49] {Les} because I have learnt all that it useful from what I am learning
[14:49] {dino} s/p gap filled 1067, finally
[14:49] {Les} but no reversal yet
[14:50] {Threei} second exit FAZ here
[14:50] {dino} into the close, shorts will start to cover imo, g20 meeting this weekend
[14:50] {RonS} eur/jpy at 109.58...just yesterday it was above 114.
[14:51] {shorty} your call dino, I will follow.
[14:51] {Threei} WFC broke down with market
[14:52] {dino} trade what you see, no bets yet
[14:59] {Threei} out FAZ in full
[14:59] {dino} ppt will close it at 10k
[14:59] {dino} back in 10
[15:01] {Les} sm long FAS .56
[15:05] {Threei} hmmm
[15:05] {Threei} you mean dino left yet you went long?
[15:05] {Les} look at his closing remarks
[15:06] {Les} "they" will close dji at 10k
[15:06] {Les} I'm all in!
[15:10] {dino} back
[15:11] {Les} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9fyOFefirQ
[15:11] {dino} rino l .65
[15:12] {dino} stop is .49
[15:15] {Les} l clh .21 stop 63
[15:19] {dino} whr
[15:20] {dino} around 96.10 maybe w/stop .74ish
[15:21] {dino} pulper usually
[15:21] {dino} wait
[15:22] {dino} .82ish was prior support
[15:26] {Threei} Only 23% Favor Government Mortgage Help
[15:27] {Les} fas is stopped. I'm a greedy pig and .30 wasn't enough...
[15:29] {dino} whr sm l .55
[15:32] {nemo} ppt better hurry up
[15:32] {dino} 3:40
[15:32] {nemo} funny dino, you left market went up...you came back, went down
[15:32] {Threei} they can't... they are all in Europe
[15:32] {nemo} yeah, that's what I figure
[15:32] {dino} south korea i think
[15:32] {nemo} I'm watching tna and fas
[15:32] {nemo} oh yeah, Bilderberg this weekend
[15:33] {dino} pwrd stopped -.16
[15:33] {nemo} if ppt doesn't intervene, monday will be horrible
[15:33] {dino} that was rino, my mistake
[15:34] {nemo} here it is
[15:34] {shorty} dino, you got hit at .49?
[15:34] {shorty} RINO
[15:34] {dino} the risk to shorts is a coordinated rate cut w/govt backing debt
[15:35] {dino} the only way out imo, is to re-inflate it
[15:35] {nemo} yeah, look how well that worked for the Greece situation
[15:35] {nemo} I'm bettin' it doesn't stick this time
[15:35] {dino} for politicians that is
[15:35] {Threei} they casn't do it as freely as US can, dino
[15:35] {dino} problem is the reinflation trade keeps getting shorter and debts bigger
[15:36] {Threei} their problem is monetary union wiht no fiscal/policy union
[15:36] {dino} i know vad, but what else can the pretend to do. its that or default, default woul;d clear it faster, but they do not have the guts to do that
[15:36] {Threei} they have single currency, yet differing fiscal and policy states
[15:37] {Threei} right
[15:37] {dino} understand it i follow it closely
[15:37] {Threei} so it will be done against their weill, and their resistance will prolong the agony and make the crash even more painful
[15:37] {dino} again, they will be thrown oput, they will try the inflatoion way first, otherwise taxes and everything else dry up, via deflation
[15:38] {Threei} yup
[15:38] {Threei} in my mind, the end is inevitable, but ther biggest problem really is:
[15:38] {dino} agree, they are grabbing at straws
[15:38] {Threei} their atempts to resist the unavoidable may lead to rweally bad things
[15:38] {Threei} blood
[15:39] {Threei} social unrest exceeding "normal" so to speak
[15:39] {nemo} oh, there will be riots there and likely here also
[15:39] {Threei} and in worst case scenario, local wars
[15:39] {dino} history rymes
[15:39] {dino} yes
[15:39] {nemo} o.k. dino it's time...
[15:40] {Threei} by trying to keep it together, they pitch nations, countires and classes against each other
[15:40] {dino} giddy-up
[15:40] {nemo} I'm hearing REM...."It's the end of the world as we know it....
[15:40] {nemo} "
[15:40] {Threei} not really... how old in Euro as currency?
[15:41] {nemo} I think I was using marks in 2000, but can't be sure
[15:41] {dino} agree vad. should have let greece default a month ago, re-structure, and move on. they are wasting time and money
[15:41] {nemo} when I was in germany
[15:41] {dino} dumb ass keynesians
[15:41] {Threei} there you go
[15:41] {Threei} it's simply goping to be return to the world without euro and EMU
[15:41] {nemo} no short covering yet
[15:41] {Threei} I see new lows in cards
[15:41] {Threei} no covering
[15:41] {dino} suppy side is the only way out. "get out of our way
[15:42] {dino} missing ron reagan
[15:42] {nemo} holy doo doo
[15:42] {nemo} batman
[15:42] {nemo} quick batton down the hatches, throw the women and children out!
[15:42] {RonS} margin selling coming in
[15:43] {dino} cut whr flat, had .50
[15:43] {nemo} lucky boy
[15:43] {Threei} 08:24] {Threei} any attempt to rally will be used to sell as much as possible,
[15:43] {Threei} [08:26] {Threei} we are rather in "be ready to panic" environment
[15:44] {larisa} hhmm :)
[15:44] {dino} stopped clh -.35
[15:44] {Threei} see?? FEEEEELINGS.... :)
[15:44] {dino} freaking whr
[15:45] {Threei} wow
[15:45] {RonS} rinse cycle on the washer?
[15:45] {Threei} look how transit gloria mundi
[15:45] {Threei} AONE
[15:46] {Threei} lol Ron
[15:46] {nemo} watching fas and tna, they still haven't broken trend lines
[15:48] {nemo} Jesus, Mary and Joseph....wow
[15:50] {dino} i feel stupid on whr
[15:50] {dino} paniced out
[15:50] {Threei} dino, got a beutiful quote for you
[15:50] {shorty} are you still in RINO dino?
[15:50] {Threei} Ed Seykota
[15:50] {dino} no see above
[15:50] {Threei} If you want to avoid whipsaw losses - stop trading
[15:51] {shorty} I asked if it hit .49, if it did my stop never triggered.
[15:52] {dino} hit .47
[15:52] {shorty} hmmmm
[15:53] {dino} hmm, not showing tho, saw .47.48.49 print
[15:53] {dino} sm l whr .30
[15:53] {Threei} new high FAZ
[15:54] {shorty} Have a great weekend all, see you guys on Monday.
[15:54] {Threei} take care shorty
[15:54] {dino} cya shorty
[15:55] {nemo} have a nice weekend short stuff
[15:55] {Threei} whole 6 minutes of trading yet, and he leaves...
06[15:55] * nemo slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
[15:55] {Threei} ok, 5
[15:55] {nemo} no covering to speak of, oy vay
[15:55] {Threei} 15:41] {Threei} I see new lows in cards
[15:55] {Threei} [15:41] {Threei} no covering
[15:56] {nemo} yes..saw that...no covering at all though
[15:56] {shorty} This is the time Telus decides to upgrade a router, and voila! I am stuck in a position all weekend.
[15:56] {nemo} call your broker
[15:56] {nemo} have him get you out
[15:56] {Threei} have your broker on speed dial for this kind of things
[15:57] {Threei} hi, this is account numer xxx, GET ME OUT NOW!!!!
[15:57] {Threei} practice this scream
[15:57] {Threei} when you manage to stop planes in the air with your voice, you reached true mastery
[15:58] {shorty} I do have them on speed dial, but I worry.
[15:58] {Les} we can do this to trev vad?
[15:58] {nemo} yes Les
[15:58] {Threei} of course
[15:59] {nemo} o.k. I'm off hasta monday...P&Q
[15:59] {Les} ciao man
[15:59] {Threei} thank you all
[15:59] {larisa} bye all :)
[15:59] {RonS} cya nemo
[15:59] {Threei} have a great relaxing weekend
[15:59] {Les} yeh a good week thanks
[15:59] {dino} out whr .60, +.30
[16:00] {Threei} see you all on Mionday
[16:00] {dino} out bth -.40
[16:00] {Les} a lundi