Sep 21 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Who said FOMC days are not good for trading? Beautiful day with just one stop, and quite a few nice trades, including couple beauties on TZA. Do read the log to track those trades; as far as charts are concerned let me post an update for the SVM swing trade. As you see from updated chart below, a trade triggered at 7.25 today, confirming double bottom. Volume looks decent as well. What concerns me though is general market climate - end of day selling hit SVM based on general market selloff. So, we are in a situation where on its own, SVM looks ready to go up in positive or neutral market; whether it's capable of holding in negative or crashing one, remains to be seen.

Session Time: Wed Sep 21 00:00:00 2011
[09:14] {dino} gm all
[09:14] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {nemo} for you dino:  http://bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/rap_sheet/?p=14158&srvc=home&position=recent
[09:14] {nemo} piece of work that boy
[09:15] {ese} gm
[09:16] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:17] {Threei}  ese, meant to show you a stock you may want to monitor
[09:17] {Threei}  look at FITB daily
[09:18] {ese} theres a blast from the past
[09:18] {Threei}  thought you'd recognize it :)
[09:18] {Threei}  announced didvidend increase yesterday
[09:19] {ese} pretty solid base....and dividend to bot
[09:19] {ese} boot
[09:19] {Threei}  daiuly to me looks like 10.80 - 11 zone breakout for long play
[09:19] {ese} me as well
[09:19] {dino} that rex is a piece of work
[09:19] {Threei}  just make sure Europe doesn't collapse, lol
[09:20] {Threei}  that'll put a kibosh on financial stocks
[09:21] {ese} Greeks were talkin yesterday...finally something happening...German economists say double dip recession not likely in Germany.....things are lookin up
[09:21] {dino} i/m not as confident as you
[09:21] {ese} Greeks won't default looks like
[09:21] {Threei}  I really doubt that optimistic view
[09:22] {dino} gut says they must
[09:22] {nemo} define default
[09:22] {Threei}  they are trying to keep brave face
[09:22] {nemo} they'll just dress it up and call it something else...like leaving the euro
[09:22] {ese} it's "de" "fault" of the Greeks
[09:22] {Threei}  math just doesn't work, ese
[09:23] {Threei}  Greece can't repay debt, no matter what
[09:23] {Threei}  and look at Italy CDS spread, to see how much realism is under that optimism
[09:23] {ese} anyway.....articles in "Marketwatch.com" yesterday....
[09:24] {Threei}  http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
[09:25] {ese} link not working
[09:26] {Threei}  works for me...
[09:27] {Threei}  anyway, Italy 5-yr is at 513
[09:27] {dino} ok now that we have broken ese' optimism, back to work
[09:27] {Threei}  this is borderline "point of no return" IMO
[09:27] {ese} lol
[09:27] {Threei}  FCX is on watch as short candidate
[09:28] {ese} link working now
[09:28] {Threei}  remember the opening volatility
[09:28] {larisa} gm :)
[09:28] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:29] {Threei}  from the look of things, morning spike can take it into .40 - .50 territory where it's bound to be a short
[09:29] {Threei}  if it breaks down instead, let's wait
[09:30] {Threei}  total breakdown
[09:31] {Threei}  becomes bounce candidate
[09:31] {Threei}  half lot
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break
[09:31] {Threei}  stop under .15
[09:32] {Threei}  in
[09:32] {nemo} you can have it
[09:32] {Threei}  ty
[09:32] {Threei}  not ready yet, out
[09:33] {patience} ty fcx vad, haven't even had first cup of coffee yet, amazing
[09:33] {ese} L orcl .50
[09:34] {Threei}  .15 break second try
[09:34] {ese} sm
[09:34] {Threei}  if holding 37
[09:34] {Threei}  half lot!
[09:34] {Threei}  target .60
[09:34] {Threei}  half out
[09:34] {Threei}  stop to .10
[09:36] {ese} L orcl avg .42
[09:37] {Threei}  stop to .25
[09:38] {Threei}  out second half
[09:38] {nemo} you see that buy on the offer go buy at .35?
[09:38] {Threei}  +.23 and .10
[09:38] {nemo} 1275 lots
[09:39] {ese} stopped orcl .21-.22
[09:39] {ese} knew i shoulda waited
[09:39] {Threei}  bought into sharp spike, ese...
[09:40] {ese} ya
[09:40] {Threei}  ORCL is a very heavy stock, not really a momo that can easily continue after spikes
[09:41] {ese} not something i do normally ......thought taht with the earnings report it had 31 in it
[09:41] {Threei}  (US) Preview: Aug Existing Home Sales due out at 10:00ET
[09:41] {Threei}  **Consensus expectation: 4.75Me v 4.67M prior
[09:41] {Threei}  it very well may but not in one gasp
[09:41] {ese} agreed
[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break if stays under .30
[09:44] {Threei}  half out
[09:45] {ese} L orcl .25
[09:45] {Threei}  should lose 37 now
[09:45] {Threei}  stop to .25 for the balance
[09:47] {Threei}  ok FCX
[09:47] {Threei}  let's do it
[09:47] {Threei}  'cause you know... bees do it
[09:49] {Threei}  good boy
[09:50] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:50] {Threei}  stop to .21
[09:52] {Threei}  grrrrr
[09:52] {Threei}  targeted RIMM short on .25 break
[09:52] {Threei}  and missed it because of FCX bresakdown at the same moment
[09:54] {Threei}  let's trail last piece to .16
[09:55] {ese} out orcl 1/2  .35 +.10
[09:55] {ese} balance to .26
[09:56] {patience} in slw
[09:58] {Threei}  numbers are coming
[09:59] {dino} titn sm l .00
[09:59] {ese} orcl stopped balance .26
[10:00] {dino} cyou sm l .90
[10:00] {ese} hmmm shoulda rang the register at .40 would have been a nice day
[10:00] {Threei}  decent number
[10:00] {dino} gpc sm l .11
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) AUG EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.03M V 4.75ME
[10:01] {Threei}  closed FCX
[10:02] {dino} ssys sm l .00 thinny
[10:09] {Threei}  watching LVS
[10:10] {ese} L orcl .23
[10:11] {Threei}  FCX, did you have to shake out last portion before continuing down?
[10:11] {nemo} it traded to vwap and dropped
[10:11] {Threei}  I overtightened stop?
[10:12] {nemo} guess I should have opened my mouth, I saw VWAP up there, and that's a magnet for price action
[10:12] {ese} out 1/2 orcl .30 +.07
[10:12] {nemo} couldn't figure out how to work it into an insult
[10:12] {Threei}  ahhh
[10:12] {ese} balance stopped .24
[10:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .50 break
[10:13] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[10:13] {Threei}  oops
[10:13] {Threei}  sorry, confused symbols
[10:13] {Threei}  LVS
[10:13] {dino} fcx, cat, joyg, ilmn, major blood two days
[10:13] {Threei}  invalidated anyway
[10:14] {Threei}  bond market prices Greece default probability at 96%
[10:15] {dino} ilmn sm l .50
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break if holding .40
[10:16] {Threei}  FCX, what a bottmoless pit
[10:16] {Threei}  LVS, target 1:3
[10:16] {Threei}  standard procedure
[10:16] {ese} specially fcx dino
[10:16] {ese} with a gap dn no less
[10:17] {ese} sorry 2 gaps dn
[10:17] {ese} have that on my screen
[10:17] {ese} got a plan for those
[10:18] {Threei}  1:1
[10:18] {dino} understand
[10:19] {ese} lol
[10:22] {Threei}  probably time for FCX bounce
[10:24] {Threei}  got away... thought of .50 break but happened a bit too fast
[10:24] {Threei}  let's see if oulls back for entry
[10:24] {Threei}  OK
[10:24] {Threei}  drop under .50,
[10:24] {Threei}  holding above .40,
[10:24] {Threei}  .50 recross
[10:24] {Threei}  that would be my long setup from here
[10:26] {Threei}  here we go
[10:27] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:30] {dino} ssys stop -.33
[10:30] {dino} ilmn stop -.33
[10:31] {Threei}  oil inventories...
[10:31] {Threei}  *DOE CRUDE: -7.33M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +3.3M V +1ME; DISTILLATE: -875K V +1ME; UTILIZATION: 88.3% V 86.6%E
[10:31] {Threei}  USO through the roof
[10:31] {Threei}  lunacy
[10:32] {dino} joyg -8 in two days
[10:32] {nemo} bfd crude down, OPEC cuts forcast last week, refineries have switched over to producing heating oil and gas way up...too frickin' funny
[10:33] {Threei}  no kidding
[10:33] {Threei}  reaction to these weekly numbers is one of the most meaningless I see in the markets
[10:33] {nemo} have a feeling it's a Wile E. Coyote moment and will retrace
[10:33] {nemo} not to those making money on it
[10:33] {Threei}  or least meaningful?
[10:36] {Threei}  FCX doesn't follow market down anymore
[10:37] {Threei}  not ready to jump in, but watching carefully
[10:37] {nemo} tired from dropping for four days...cant keep up
[10:37] {patience} in long fcx
[10:37] {Threei}  hehe
[10:37] {Threei}  why rush
[10:37] {Threei}  no clear signal yet
[10:37] {patience} no kidding
[10:39] {dino} joyg sm l .90
[10:40] {ese} L orcl .20
[10:44] {ese} out 1/2 orcl .40 +.20
[10:45] {Threei}  missed another LVS setup
[10:45] {dino} gj
[10:46] {Threei}  .30 break.. see tose two dojis?
[10:46] {ese} out balance .49 +.29
[10:46] {ese} orcl
[10:46] {ese} tks dino
[10:46] {ese} that was a crap load of shs
[10:47] {ese} haven't done that for a bit
[10:48] {nemo} rrc
[10:48] {dino} t/o chatter
[10:49] {Threei}  ok, let's try to get LVS this time
[10:51] {ese} am outta here....have a great rest of the day.....
[10:51] {Threei}  one more leg down, consolidation between .10 and .20 and cross
[10:51] {patience} bye ese
[10:51] {Threei}  take care ese, gj
[10:51] {ese} cya vad patience
[10:51] {dino} cya ese
[10:51] {ese} dino
[10:51] {nemo} spy if doesn't hold .45 going to .20 area
[10:52] {nemo} this also spy premarket low
[10:53] {dino} ndx filled open gap
[10:56] {nemo} pre market low for IWM might get some tail wagging the dog here
[10:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .20 break if holding .10
[10:58] {patience} ok, who thinks the fed will open up their discount window wide today and lend money to banks at very favourable terms?
[10:59] {Threei}  1:1
[10:59] {nemo} how much more favorable can it get
[11:00] {dino} window is open
[11:00] {Threei}  1:2
[11:00] {Threei}  1:3
[11:00] {dino} gj
[11:00] {Threei}  ty
[11:00] {Threei}  we had what, 1 stop today?
[11:00] {patience} it is, but narrow elegibility gets loosened?
[11:01] {Threei}  the rest worked like charm?
[11:02] {dino} we are already flooding the euro block w/$. but yes i think twist happens, going loner term to lower long term rates
[11:08] {Threei}  midday update:
[11:08] {Threei}  The FOMC rate decision will arrive mid afternoon and investors are debating the chances that Helicopter Ben will greenlight Operation Twist. In Europe, equity markets are at their lows as traders worry about the banking system. Earlier this morning, Greece Finance Minister Venizelos warned that there is a danger that reform program might fail and Lloyd's of London said it had decided to pull peripheral euro bank deposits.
[11:09] {Threei}  Note that the August existing home sales hit their highest rate since early 2009, however analysts agree that the slightly better numbers were driven by a sudden jump in foreclosure and resale activity. Treasury markets are trending higher as money comes out of stocks and the US 10-year yield has slipped back toward 1.9%.
[11:09] {Threei}  I dunno where ese finds that optimism...
[11:10] {dino} nor i
[11:10] {Threei}  Overall the greenback remained range bound ahead of the FOMC decision later today. Dealers suspect the dollar could weaken further if the Fed announces any new QE measures. EUR/USD recovered from session lows during the New York morning aided by speculation that the French government might take measures to restore confidence in its banking sector coupled with ECB widening the range of debt instruments accepted as collateral.
[11:11] {Threei}  Dealers did note that the ECB action on collateral actually lowered its quality control. The market still awaiting Greece to outline its austerity measures negotiated with the Troika in recent days
[11:17] {Threei}  wow LVS
[11:17] {nemo} hpq
[11:17] {Threei}  how come I never forget last couple hundred shares
[11:18] {RonS} may be leo out at hpq
[11:19] {RonS} Bloomberg confirms boards wants CEO out $HPQ
[11:19] {Threei}  Hewlett-Packard Co Board evaluating firing CEO Apotheker in favor of Whitman as successor - financial press
[11:20] {Threei}  and this sends a stock up a dollar?
[11:20] {Threei}  and half
[11:29] {Threei}  SVM
[11:30] {Threei}  who saw a chart for a swing trade a few days ago, see it breaking out
[11:30] {Threei}  I posted quick update on facebook, will add after close
[11:30] {dino} ilmn sm l .00 wide
[11:38] {Threei}  White House said to have informed Congress of planned $5.3B upgrade of Taiwan's existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets
[11:38] {Threei}  - Northrop Grumman and Raytheon are said to be expected to compete to build new radar systems for Taiwan's F-16s.
[11:38] {Threei}  sigh
[11:47] {RonS} ilmn brightly burning...
[11:47] {nemo} wow....
[11:50] {dino} kicked me in the azz
[11:56] {nemo} see the link I posted for you this morning Dino?
[11:57] {dino} on rex? yes
[11:57] {nemo} I like the guy
[11:57] {dino} me too, he fits ny market
[11:58] {nemo} cracks me up, foot fetish, cries watching chick flicks...
[11:58] {nemo} He'd be alot of fun to drink with
[11:58] {dino} indeed, lol
[12:08] {patience} out fcx, nice run  +.71
[12:09] {Threei}  gj
[12:09] {patience} connection went down during trade, i hate that
[12:09] {Threei}  look at LVS chart and see where we got it long
[12:09] {Threei}  pretty much near the low of the day
[12:11] {dino} market stuck in range
[12:15] {dino} wow ilmn what a rinse job
[12:22] {dino} sm l ilmn .00, last try
[12:27] {Threei}  Moody BAC downgrade
[12:27] {Threei}  kills the market
[12:29] {Threei}  nice jub Buffet
[12:29] {Threei}  job
[12:30] {RonS} qotd:  why should i care about a buffet tax. i never eat at one.
[12:31] {Threei}  lol
[12:31] {dino} lol
[12:36] {dino} bac preferred getting hit
[12:39] {nemo} I find the coincidence between the downgrade and BennieB intriguing
[12:40] {Threei}  think setting up the scene for Fed action?
[12:40] {nemo} whack the longs, come in and buy
[12:42] {patience} out of anv.to    i forgot how wingy some of these stocks can be to trade....too much work    +.62
[12:48] {nemo} hpq again
[12:48] {Threei}  reconsiders spin-off of PC business
[12:52] {patience} sold everything but POT
[12:52] {patience} excellent day...will sit and wait
[12:58] {Threei}  Moody's cuts WFC
[12:58] {Threei}  and C
[12:58] {Threei}  they are on the roll today
[12:59] {Threei}  a roll?
[12:59] {Threei}  just roll?
[12:59] {Threei}  why do you english speakers need those a and the, no idea
[13:00] {RonS} freakin a, eh?
[13:00] {Threei}  the freakin a
[13:02] {dino} ahole, lol
[13:05] {dino} giddy-up
[13:19] {dino} joyg to .84
[13:24] {dino} out .96, +1.06
[13:25] {RonS} gj
[13:25] {patience} very nice
[13:26] {Threei}  great one
[13:26] {dino} ty took hours
[13:26] {patience} very patient  :)
[13:27] {dino} ;)
[13:28] {Threei}  Coolest searching device ever? Your toe! Always able to, somehow, find furniture even when it is pitch black
[13:29] {dino} yeah, been there
[13:32] {Threei}  so, 74% of ecinomists expect operation Twist, 61 says it won't work
[13:33] {Threei}  the rest 39 are clueless I guess
[13:54] {Threei}  total stall
[13:55] {patience} what time do we hear anything?
[13:56] {dino}  2:15
[13:56] {patience} ty
[14:00] {nemo} regn
[14:01] {dino} regn spike
[14:02] {nemo} dino...look above
[14:02] {dino} ilmn out .30, +.30
[14:02] {Threei}  halt
[14:02] {nemo} that sucks
[14:02] {patience} nice day for you dino
[14:02] {dino} average, had few stops earlier
[14:05] {nemo} indexes look like they're setting up for screaming longs
[14:07] {Threei}  here is summary for expectations:
[14:07] {Threei}  http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-sep-21-2011#comment-95641
[14:07] {Threei}  too long to paste it all here
[14:07] {dino} va drops avastin
[14:08] {Threei}  passive twist, active twist... as if all these monetary tweaks really can change the ways of economy
[14:08] {Threei}  more they tweak, worse it gets
[14:08] {Threei}  get the ^%#* out of the way
[14:09] {dino} john galt i presume
[14:09] {Threei}  :)
[14:10] {nemo} it's between a rock and a hard place...they get out of the way, and it's gonna' get rocky sooner, they don't get out of the way, it get's rocky a little later
[14:10] {Threei}  but there is a difference in the degree of rockiness
[14:10] {Threei}  the later it comes the rockier it gets
[14:10] {nemo} I don't think so...I think sooner or lated serious civil unrest
[14:11] {dino} they stretch it out to save themselves, not do what is needed
[14:11] {nemo} I don't think it can be avoided
[14:11] {patience} bought td bank
[14:13] {RonS} regn 7 mil sh short...lit up...
[14:13] {dino} right now they are fighting over who pays for lunch
[14:17] {Threei}  fashinably late?
[14:17] {Threei}  +o
[14:20] {RonS} who does the clam think he is?...O?
[14:20] {Threei}  lol
[14:20] {RonS} soory...0
[14:22] {Threei}  potato, potatoe
[14:23] {dino} out
[14:23] {dino} 07 green
[14:23] {Threei}  ok
[14:23] {Threei}  here it comes
[14:24] {dino} now red
[14:24] {RonS} twisted sister
[14:25] {Threei}  active twist
[14:25] {Threei}  market says eeeeck
[14:25] {RonS} chubby checker to head operation...
[14:25] {dino} what'd he do?
[14:26] {Threei}  Fed to buy $400B in long term treasuries (6-30 year range) by end of June 2012
[14:28] {RonS} copper tanked
[14:28] {dino} pru sm l .79
[14:29] {RonS} wow, three dissenters
[14:30] {dino} re-liquify
[14:44] {dino} meli sm l .10
[14:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .35 break
[14:49] {Threei}  half lot
[14:49] {Threei}  invalidated
[14:50] {Threei}  .20 break
[14:53] {nemo} spy likely going for .20, look for tza there
[14:55] {Threei}  half out
[14:55] {Threei}  stop to .15
[14:56] {Threei}  out in full
[14:56] {Threei}  +.40
[14:59] {patience} nice
[15:00] {dino} gj
[15:00] {Threei}  ty
[15:05] {dino} out meli .15, +1.05
[15:16] {Threei}  nice!
[15:17] {dino} ty
[15:17] {patience} very nice
[15:21] {dino} ty
[15:29] {Threei}  so... last plunge is coming?
[15:29] {patience} i'm lost here, can't tell
[15:29] {Threei}  half lot long TZA .90
[15:29] {Threei}  if stays abovce .75
[15:30] {dino} gut says up
[15:30] {Threei}  valid still
[15:31] {Threei}  in
[15:32] {Threei}  half out
[15:32] {Threei}  stop to .85
[15:34] {Threei}  I don't remember having such a nice day on FOMC date
[15:34] {patience} i agree
[15:34] {dino} lod
[15:34] {Threei}  boom TZA
[15:34] {dino} whippy
[15:35] {dino} 11246 gap filled
[15:35] {Threei}  out +.60
[15:36] {dino} nice
[15:38] {dino} hmmm so far you are right, plunge
[15:39] {Threei}  panic
[15:39] {Threei}  crash
06[15:39] * Threei slants at larisa
[15:40] {Threei}  -(IT) Italy confirms FY11 GDP target cut to 0.7% from 1.1%
[15:55] {Threei}  what an ugly end
[15:56] {patience} should be interesting overnight trading
[15:56] {Threei}  ok guys, I believe we handled today beautifully
[15:56] {patience} ty vad
[15:56] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:57] {dino} cya
[15:57] {larisa} bye :)

Sep 20 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Positive day but we haven' played it to its full potential - reversal and drop closer to end of day was one of those things that we saw coming and haven't found the right way to benefit from.


Session Time: Tue Sep 20 00:00:00 2011
[09:10] {Threei}  don't tell me... it's morning again?
[09:11] {patience} it starts earlier every day
[09:11] {Threei}  sigh
[09:13] {dino} gm all
[09:13] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:15] {RonS} gm everyone
[09:15] {patience} good morning Ron
[09:16] {Threei}  gap up despite Italy downgrade and China banks stopping swap lines with Europe - genuinely bullish, or denial to be disillusioned, or just this particular event is priced in (Italy downgrade was pretty much given)?
[09:16] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:20] {dino} imo italy a given, china a surprise
[09:20] {Threei}  my feeling too
[09:20] {RonS} patience up early is the surprise...
[09:21] {RonS} :)
[09:21] {Threei}  well, ese broke her windows yesterday with his bricks...
[09:21] {Threei}  she is on guard today
[09:23] {Threei}  JEF CEO: August performance was 'brutal'; September trading results have improved - conf call comments
[09:23] {Threei}  I'd say, we did considerably better than jefferies
[09:25] {patience} painted my deck and side panels yesterday Ron.  Couldn't sleep my body is so sore from it so i might as well trade   :)   besides i took some big positions yesterday, wanted to see them pre-market.  
[09:26] {larisa} gm :)
[09:26] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:26] {larisa} vad :)
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:31] {Threei}  half lot
[09:31] {Threei}  stop above .90 scalpers, 40 day traders
[09:33] {Threei}  out
[09:33] {Threei}  morning volatility is here
[09:34] {Threei}  letting it spike to look for the reversal
[09:34] {Threei}  probably above .30
[09:35] {Threei}  ideally, spike into .30 - .40 range with short setup on .30 recross while stays under .40
[09:35] {dino} 07 all red
[09:36] {Threei}  patience... your turn to throw stones in ese's windows
[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .30 break half lot
[09:37] {Threei}  half out
[09:37] {Threei}  General Motors Corp Notes Chevy Volt electic vehicle will not qualify for Chinese govt incentive programs - press
[09:37] {Threei}  because it's not produced in china?
[09:38] {Threei}  out RIMM in full
[09:46] {Threei}  (GR) IMF comments on Greece: Country remains fully commited to staying in the Euro Zone
[09:46] {Threei}  sure
[09:48] {Threei}  tna
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .40 break
[09:49] {Threei}  half lot
[09:49] {nemo} .19 stop?
[09:49] {Threei}  .25
[09:49] {Threei}  half out
[09:50] {Threei}  stop to .35
[09:50] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:51] {nemo} look for IWM bounce around .00 and spy around .05
[09:52] {Threei}  wanted TZA entry but closer to .60... it bottomed out a bit too high
[09:52] {nemo} spy and iwm at pivots
[09:52] {Threei}  daily?
[09:52] {nemo} weekly iwm daily spy
[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break
[09:54] {Threei}  if stays above .70 of course
[09:56] {Threei}  1:1
[09:59] {Threei}  out in full
[10:00] {dino} gj
[10:00] {Threei}  ty
[10:00] {Threei}  3 for 3 so far
[10:00] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[10:00] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[10:01] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:01] {nemo} gold going through the roof
[10:01] {patience} oh happiness
[10:01] {dino} gpc sm l .48
[10:02] {Threei}  gold action tells me market in no way accepted that Europe situation becomes healthier
[10:02] {nemo} that's a big "Duh!"
[10:03] {Threei}  hey... don't trivialize my observations, they are trivial without your help {G}
[10:03] {Threei}  Captain Obvious, remember?
[10:04] {Threei}  the question raised because of bullish opening despite Italy
[10:04] {nemo} frickin' guineas
[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM.15  break
[10:09] {Threei}  half lot
[10:09] {Threei}  with adding another half on .10
[10:09] {Threei}  stop .25 for the first half
[10:09] {nemo} target 0?
[10:09] {Threei}  the way daily looks, pretty much, lol
[10:10] {dino} gpc stop -.30
[10:11] {Threei}  ideally we stay under .10 and .21 becomes a stop for a full lot
[10:11] {Threei}  under .20, sorry
[10:14] {Threei}  stopped
[10:16] {Threei}  (IT) S&P: Italy cannot solve its debt problems through privatization of assets
[10:16] {Threei}  through what then?
[10:17] {nemo} cutting fiscal spending
[10:17] {Threei}  that only takes care of not increasing the debt going forward
[10:17] {Threei}  S&P is talking about paying down existing
[10:18] {Threei}  and says selling assets is not going to suffi ce
[10:18] {nemo} if you spend less than you take in, you pay stuff down
[10:18] {Threei}  yeah... at this scale and rate, in the next 3000 years
[10:18] {Threei}  meanwhile rollover dates come
[10:18] {Threei}  and money isn't there
[10:19] {Threei}  and selling assets doesn't cover it
[10:19] {Threei}  see mine ( and S&P's) point? :)
[10:22] {Threei}  grrr
[10:22] {Threei}  RIMM rinse
[10:23] {Threei}  here is the number:
[10:23] {Threei}  - According to Goldman Sachs, Italy has to rollover about $380B in debt by the end of 2012.
[10:24] {Threei}  what S&P is saying, Italy cannot meet that by privatization
[10:24] {dino} mkt saying it doesn't matter so far today
[10:24] {Threei}  that was my morning question...
[10:24] {Threei}  what is with this strength - priced in? denial?
[10:25] {dino} today is key word
[10:27] {patience} locked in my profit with gdx and hgu....will just look for another entry point
[10:28] {dino} 1216 gap
[10:32] {dino} nflx -70 pts 4 days
[10:32] {Threei}  and shows no signs of bottoming
[10:32] {Threei}  sic transit gloria mundi
[10:40] {dino} gpc l .60
[10:47] {dino} out gpc .75, +.15
[10:48] {Threei}  easy money
[10:48] {Threei}  my favorite kind
[10:59] {dino} 1216 filled
[10:59] {Threei}  RIMM is losing support... short entry is not really obvious though
[11:03] {Threei}  ugh
[11:03] {Threei}  hate it when it rinses us, then works
[11:04] {dino} hls l .29
[11:06] {nemo} just got rinsed on MCP stopped out for the day
[11:12] {dino} cat sm s break .60
[11:13] {Threei}  hard to distinguish SPY action here
[11:13] {nemo} at trend line for the day
[11:13] {Threei}  looks reversing, but this kind of reversals proves to be very elusive lately
[11:14] {Threei}  I am not fond of idea to short it at will
[11:15] {dino} cat bstop is .81
[11:21] {dino} out hls .41, +.12
[11:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .05 break
[11:26] {Threei}  if holding 40
[11:27] {dino} cov cat .30, +.30
[11:27] {Threei}  nice one
[11:28] {dino} ty
[11:28] {Threei}  despite extremely tight stop, target is fairly solid on FCX, about .35
[11:28] {Threei}  three partials
[11:31] {Threei}  no go
[11:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
[11:45] {Threei}  stop under .60
[11:47] {Threei}  sigh
[11:47] {Threei}  why did't we go vback to sleep after first 3 wins?
[11:53] {Threei}  anyone breathes at all?
[11:53] {Threei}  or am I talking to myself?
[11:54] {patience} just in a scalp in hgu
[11:54] {RonS} hear here 3i
[11:55] {patience} out, ok, time for a run, awesome day
[11:56] {Threei}  one more dive TZA, and should be scalpable
[11:56] {Threei}  from around .10
[11:57] {nemo} unless this is the break of a bull flag
[11:57] {nemo} if we break resistance, 123.80 next target on spy
[11:58] {RonS} meli dino...
[12:01] {Threei}  nice TZA bounce but .20 wasn't really all that clear to me as an entry
[12:06] {dino} yeah
[12:08] {Threei}  this one seriously got away, uh?
[12:10] {dino} nemo, what do you see? down?
[12:11] {dino} sm s brk/b .34
[12:11] {nemo} dead people
[12:11] {dino} me too, lots of them
[12:11] {nemo} down to the 121.25 area
[12:12] {nemo} we
[12:12] {nemo} We
[12:12] {nemo} we're at premarket high at .38
[12:12] {dino} gut has us going to flat
[12:13] {nemo} .25 area has Monthly Pivot, VWAP and r1
[12:13] {dino} ty
[12:18] {Threei}  have to try TZA again
[12:18] {Threei}  .75
[12:19] {Threei}  SPY loss of .50 should do it
[12:19] {RonS} ...has anyone been looking at Dr. Copper? ...big negative divergence w/ this market...check out jjc daily
[12:19] {dino} predicting recession
[12:24] {Threei}  changing to .70 break
[12:27] {Threei}  still valid
[12:27] {Threei}  barely
[12:27] {Threei}  but
[12:27] {nemo} when's the Fed meeting start?
[12:28] {nemo} ya' know you could by a lot of both tza and tna and wait
[12:28] {Threei}  we will hear from them tomorrow
[12:28] {Threei}  2:15
[12:30] {dino} this twist idea may be holding up mrkt
[12:32] {Threei}  1:1
[12:37] {Threei}  out in full
[12:37] {Threei}  needed this win top reconsolidate morning gains
[12:44] {Threei}  underestimating potential of TZA today
[12:54] {RonS} V and MA made moves...axp next?
[12:55] {RonS} copper at low 3.72
[13:04] {dino}  brk/b stop -.02
[13:06] {Threei}  59% View Hillary Clinton Favorably
[13:06] {Threei}  buyers regret/
[13:07] {dino} ilmn drop
[13:09] {dino} sm l .95
[13:14] {dino} stop -.22
[13:18] {dino} ilmn sm l .45
[13:27] {dino} out ilmn .05, +.60
[13:28] {dino} cstr drop
[13:30] {Threei}  (GE) Germany Chancellor: Concept of 'economic growth at all costs' should end, was part of the cause of the recent debt crisis
[13:30] {Threei}  - Current crisis provides great opportunity to put debts in sustainable paths
[13:30] {Threei}  FITB
[13:30] {Threei}  didvidend increase
[13:31] {Threei}  nice daily...
[13:31] {Threei}  ese might be interested
[13:31] {Threei}  FITB used to be his stock
[13:31] {Threei}  in case senility takes over, someone remind me to tell him tomorrow when he is in
[13:33] {dino} nope
[13:41] {dino} cstr sm l .75
[13:42] {dino} stop -.30
[13:44] {dino} rinsed
[13:58] {dino} tzoo drop
[14:02] {nemo} big iwm volume this minute
[14:03] {nemo} guess I shoulda taken whichever way it went off that minute
[14:04] {Threei}  TZA spiked too
[14:04] {nemo} that was my point, that really high volume candle on IWM, take it whichever way it goes off of that
[14:05] {Threei}  lol... Brasil denies help yo EU
[14:05] {Threei}  as if iy was ever viable option
[14:11] {dino} joyg lod
[14:13] {dino} cyou sm l .00
[14:16] {dino} joyg sm l .00
[14:30] {nemo} wonder if we're getting into the pre-Fed chop
[14:30] {dino} y imo
[14:31] {dino} easing thru twist idea is supposed to be good for markets
[14:32] {dino} joyg stop -.26
[14:33] {Threei}  (US) PIMCO sees Fed funds market as negatively impacted if the Fed decides to cut interest paid on excess reserves (IOER) at meeting
[14:33] {Threei}  - PIMCO notes that a cut of the interest on excess reserves could hurt earnings margins for banks; PIMCO sees likelihood that Fed may instead choose to trim the IOER slightly rather than imposing a full cut from 25bps
[14:33] {Threei}  that was twisted idea anyway
[14:34] {dino} that and going longer term vs short to lower rates
[14:34] {dino} joyg messed up today
[14:35] {nemo} .30 vwap on spy .25 pivot on iwm, probably a bounce in that proximity
[14:36] {dino} ilmn sm l .51
[14:49] {Threei}  I'd expect hard pullback on TZA here, into .50 - .60 area where I'd be a buyer
[14:50] {nemo} spy sitting on monthly pivot iwm .10 above the Weekly pivot
[14:54] {nemo} this long setup is almost too obvious
[14:55] {nemo} hahh...guess it was so obvious it should have been taken
[14:55] {dino} out ilmn .91, +.40
[15:00] {dino} sina blood
[15:06] {Threei}  (GR) Troika officials said to plan to return to Athens in Oct to complete Greek review - press
[15:06] {Threei}  yikes
[15:06] {dino} ndx red
[15:06] {Threei}  sends market back in uncertainty
[15:07] {Threei}  positive day but i can't say i am happy with how i played it
[15:07] {dino} same here, bit light
[15:17] {patience} in pot and hgu
[15:19] {dino} ilmn sm l .35 stop .19
[15:22] {dino} stop
[15:23] {nemo} .11 tna would be a good bet
[15:23] {nemo} or right here spy
[15:24] {nemo} nope
[15:25] {Threei}  remarkable weakness
[15:27] {Threei}  this is what I am really unhappy about: I weaited for this weaknedd, believed it had to come, yet haven't found right entry
[15:29] {Threei}  I guess that slow climb and then really long consolidation near the high kind of lulled me
[15:31] {dino} gr
[15:34] {Threei}  take a look at Italy CDS
[15:34] {Threei}  http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
[15:34] {Threei}  this is closing in on point of no return
[15:36] {Threei}  GR news dinop
[15:36] {Threei}  Goodrich Corp UTX said to be in late stage discussions on final terms of deal with Goodrich - financial press
[15:41] {patience} added anv, xgd, iag
[15:42] {Threei}  SVM ginishes with nice strenght
[15:42] {Threei}  finishes even
[15:42] {Threei}  remember swing trade chart
[15:42] {dino} tzoo blood
[15:46] {Threei}  wow
[15:47] {Threei}  who would have thought SPY goes red by the end of the day
[15:47] {Threei}  good... we should get some good ones tomorrow morning, befofe market goes dead in waiting for Fed
[15:47] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:47] {Threei}  have a great evening
[15:47] {larisa} bye :)
[15:48] {Threei}  see you tomorrow bright and early
[15:48] {Threei}  or how you look in the morning
[15:50] {patience} added gg, more gdx - long term account
[15:51] {patience} ty vad

Sep 19 2001

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Nice quiet day with 6 trades, out of which one got stopped, and five led to profits. Let me show a chart with nice potential for swing traders - IF the scenario outlined on the chart plays out, and IF nasty battle arounf this stock is won by the company. SVM is a hotly discussed stock of late, with accusations and rebuttals flying back and forth. Staying away from fundamentals, want to throw in a chart with possible scenario. Easy to recognize if you follow my setups, but ask if needed

Session Time: Mon Sep 19 00:00:00 2011

[09:05] {dino} gm all

[09:05] {Threei}  morning dino

[09:06] {dino} hmmm trh 52/sh cash t/o offer

[09:07] {dino} lol, only open unti close today

[09:08] {RonS} gm everyone...impressive article on the log nemo

[09:08] {Threei}  ron :)

[09:11] {ese} morning and welcome to my new reality....at least for 4 months

[09:11] {Threei}  ese :)

[09:11] {Threei}  or :(

[09:12] {ese} definitely the later

[09:12] {Threei}  so the only question about Greece is: will default be announced this seek or postponed again?

[09:13] {dino} postponed until they get next round of mooney

[09:13] {Threei}  but they won't

[09:13] {dino} some due this week i think

[09:13] {Threei}  look at this:

[09:13] {Threei}  - German Chancellor Merkel party makes it 0 for 6 in elections

[09:14] {ese} with all the construction at my school vad it forced the administration to do rescheduling of classes and rooms to make things work 

[09:14] {Threei}  this is loud and clear singla to all politicians of EU: stop bailing out other sovereign nations

[09:14] {ese} i'm a victim

[09:14] {Threei}  oh, I see where it came from

[09:14] {Threei}  was wondwring why they would do such a weird scheduling

[09:15] {dino} just retire from teaching ese

[09:15] {ese} I don't know if you'c seen the school before on fernwood street but if you drive by it now you may not recognize it

[09:15] {ese} ya think so dino

[09:15] {ese} thats the plan

[09:15] {Threei}  I sure did, lol

[09:16] {ese} lol

[09:18] {Threei}  I've also seen construction when went to Bellfry last time

[09:18] {Threei}  look at SLW guys

[09:19] {Threei}  here is what happened to this one as far as market following concerned:

[09:19] {Threei}  sometimes it goes up when market does, and sometimes it does opposite,

[09:19] {Threei}  and it depends on the reason of market move:

[09:19] {Threei}  if market drops because of EU troubles, SLW goers up,

[09:20] {Threei}  as it's seen as safe haven

[09:20] {Threei}  if market drops because of general economy worries, SLW drops with market

[09:20] {Threei}  how about that, instead of simple relation

[09:25] {RonS} wow .tnx -110 basis points

[09:29] {Threei}  FCX, bounce to about .60 is for short entry

[09:31] {dino} down gaps 11246, 2252, 1188

[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .90 break

[09:33] {nemo} spready

[09:33] {Threei}  half lot...

[09:33] {Threei}  and ..5 as a stop

[09:33] {Threei}  .05

[09:34] {Threei}  target is about .60

[09:35] {Threei}  two partials

[09:36] {Threei}  let's trail to .01

[09:36] {Threei}  first part out

[09:36] {Threei}  stop to .96

[09:39] {Threei}  stop to .91

[09:40] {Threei}  crap, missed that FCX top between .50 and .60

[09:40] {Threei}  out SLW

[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .15 break

[09:42] {nemo} a little quick for me

[09:42] {Threei}  see if dives toward .10 for secondary entry

[09:42] {Threei}  here it is

[09:43] {Threei}  .05 stop

[09:44] {Threei}  SPY new low

[09:44] {Threei}  it better hold here

[09:44] {nemo} just broke below weekly pivot

[09:44] {dino} wants those gaps

[09:44] {Threei}  FCX resists

[09:44] {Threei}  so far so good

[09:45] {Threei}  needs to go over .20 again, and will be golden

[09:45] {RonS} hearing O tv at 10:30 edt

[09:45] {Threei}  yeah, new plan

[09:45] {Threei}  new tax

[09:45] {Threei}  out FCX

[09:46] {Threei}  SPY lost support

[09:46] {dino} more taxes, more regs ron

[09:47] {nemo} GDX is moving up

[09:48] {RonS} guess it boils down to question whether he is chokeing his chicken or strangling the goose

[09:49] {dino} lol

[09:49] {dino} its a non-starter, won't pass. just using it for campaign purposes

[09:50] {Threei}  interestingly enough RIMM is green

[09:50] {Threei}  look at FCX

[09:51] {dino} ?

[09:51] {Threei}  there is just so long it can hold against the index

[09:51] {dino} agreed

[09:51] {Threei}  RIMM...

[09:52] {nemo} we're getting into that irrational versus solvency discussion

[09:52] {Threei}  ?

[09:52] {nemo} The market can stay irrational (rimmm) longer than we can stay solvent

[09:52] {Threei}  oh

[09:52] {Threei}  let's see if it gives us long entry on pullback

[09:53] {Threei}  closer to 24 would be nice

[09:54] {Threei}  FCX

[09:54] {Threei}  looks almost ready

[09:55] {nemo} mkt indicators turning up

[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break

[09:55] {Threei}  valid still

[09:56] {Threei}  let's change to .75 break

[09:56] {Threei}  semi-aggressive

[09:56] {Threei}  if holding .65

[09:56] {dino} titn sm l .90

[09:57] {Threei}  invalidated

[09:58] {Threei}  come on RIMM

[09:58] {Threei}  10-15 cents more

[09:59] {nemo} numbers

[09:59] {Threei}  housing market

[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 14 V 15E

[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break

[10:01] {Threei}  if stays bove .50 for scalpers

[10:01] {dino} fcx sm l .60

[10:01] {Threei}  .45 day ttraders

[10:01] {Threei}  target .95

[10:01] {Threei}  three partials

[10:02] {Threei}  first part out

[10:02] {Threei}  stop to .55

[10:03] {Threei}  girls took Monday off or what

[10:03] {Threei}  larisa, patience

[10:04] {dino} maybe so

[10:04] {Threei}  ese, throw a stone in patience window pls

[10:05] {Threei}  come on FCX

[10:05] {Threei}  you can do better than this

[10:05] {Threei}  stop to .59

[10:06] {Threei}  oh boy... we will hear for Timmy too today

[10:06] {Threei}  puking reflex ensues

[10:07] {Threei}  second part out, FCX

[10:07] {Threei}  stop to .64

[10:09] {Threei}  RIMM starts looking short

[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .10 break

[10:09] {Threei}  if stays under .20

[10:09] {Threei}  half lot

[10:10] {Threei}  OK FCX, last thrust please

[10:10] {Threei}  to above .90

[10:10] {nemo} uptick rule in effect

[10:10] {Threei}  a little bit labored trade but safe and not overly fast

[10:11] {Threei}  if anyone got RIMM feel free to start covering

[10:12] {Threei}  stop to .69 FCX

[10:12] {dino} out fcx .80, +.20 

[10:13] {ese} sticks and stones.......may break patients bones......but...but ...but....hmmmmmmmmm......whats she up to now vad

[10:14] {Threei}  sleeping in obviously, lol

[10:14] {Threei}  out last portion FCX

[10:14] {dino} joyg sm l .90

[10:14] {ese} well......i'm watching my screens and it feels like i'm sleeping.......

[10:16] {dino} titn to .10

[10:16] {dino} 1188 filled

[10:16] {ese} theres alot to this being consistent.......i missed a couple of days last week and when i look at my screens they look like hyroglythics

[10:16] {ese} sheesh

[10:16] {dino} randon dance markets, but filling gaps consistantly

[10:16] {nemo} gawd...ese...I saw that...spelling, and I figured it was vad

[10:16] {ese} it's like relearning everytime this happens to me

[10:17] {dino} out titn .11, +.21

[10:17] {ese} i thought it was creative nemo

[10:17] {ese} oh alright......hyroglifics

[10:18] {ese} no comment

[10:18] {ese} ok.....hieroplyphics

[10:19] {dino} how about hyfics

[10:19] {ese} oops hieroglyphics.........i think thats right

[10:20] {nemo} I don't know, I just knew it didn't work phonetically

[10:20] {ese} hell....now i'm not even sure

[10:20] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break

[10:21] {Threei}  ugh

[10:21] {Threei}  sorry wriong symbol

[10:21] {Threei}  and noone saysa word

[10:21] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .60 break

[10:22] {dino} obamination in ten, most likely 20 minutes late, plus -100 pts on him speaking

[10:26] {Threei}  X invalidated

[10:31] {dino} out joyg .60, +.70

[10:31] {Threei}  nice

[10:31] {dino} thx

[10:31] {dino} brb

[10:32] {Threei}  I have to say, for such gap down the activity is very timid

[10:32] {Threei}  1 hour in, we have just three trades?

[10:33] {Threei}  no, 4

[10:40] {Threei}  another imbecile opened his mouth:

[10:40] {Threei}  Larry Summers: The world must insist that Europe act

[10:40] {Threei}  I can't believe this

[10:40] {Threei}  cretines that got us in this mess are lecturing Europe

[10:41] {dino} whats not to believe

[10:41] {Threei}  the nerve on these folks

[10:41] {Threei}  summers, geithner

[10:42] {dino} lol obamination is late as usual

[10:46] {dino} hate to have a tee time w/obamination, huh ese

[10:50] {dino} 20 minutes late and counting

[10:50] {dino} egomaniac

[10:51] {dino} osis spike

[10:51] {RonS} hey, it's hard to play "pin the tail on the donkey"

[10:52] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  24 break

[10:52] {dino} osis crazy

[10:52] {Threei}  if stays under .10

[10:52] {nemo} rimm

[10:52] {RonS} nice spread osis

[10:53] {dino} lol

[10:53] {ese} back in

[10:53] {dino} no news?

[10:53] {Threei}  none here

[10:56] {Threei}  the wait is over dino

[10:57] {Threei}  RIMM 1:1

[11:01] {Threei}  ese did throw that stone

[11:02] {Threei}  now patience sweeps up the glass shards

[11:02] {Threei}  while it's quiet, everyone saw the article on pivot levels?

[11:03] {dino} bummer

[11:03] {Threei}  will be a weekly feature for those who use them

[11:03] {patience} read it, as soon as i understand what i am doing, will try

[11:03] {patience} better that nemo come up to victoria and my office and just show me 

[11:04] {Threei}  good idea

[11:05] {dino} retail holds well

[11:06] {dino} ragging boehner again

[11:07] {Threei}  why else to come to the mike

[11:09] {Threei}  here comes Buffet secretary again

[11:10] {Threei}  these folks really believe no one understands how false this argument is

[11:10] {Threei}  mixing income tax and capital gain tac

[11:14] {RonS} hearing O perseverating...

[11:14] {dino} mnta drop

[11:15] {dino} whitehouse.gov

[11:15] {dino} mnta?

[11:16] {Threei}  Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc Ticks lower on reports that Amphastar has received approval for generic Lovenox

[11:17] {dino} ty

[11:19] {dino} cyou sm l .75

[11:26] {Threei}  interesting point on Bloomberg TV

[11:27] {Threei}  goes like:

[11:27] {Threei}  president just called for capital gain tax increase to 35%, and market didn't flinch,

[11:27] {Threei}  which means market realized this is bluff and none of this will be materialized

[11:27] {Threei}  otherwise it would sell off like crazy

[11:28] {RonS} "the emperor has no clothes"

[11:30] {dino} right

[11:38] {nemo} rrc

[11:38] {dino} rrc

[11:38] {nemo} was gonna'' say got dino written all over it

[11:39] {dino} not yet

[11:39] {dino} no news

[11:41] {RonS} $RRC takeover speculation

[11:43] {dino} ty

[11:43] {Threei}  Range Resources Corp. Hearing Dealreporter speculating the company has received bids

[11:46] {ese} L sgen.26

[11:47] {ese} whoa...out 1/2

[11:47] {ese} .43 +.17

[11:48] {dino} gj

[11:49] {ese} out full sgen .46 +.20....good things are worth waiting for 1k/1k

[11:49] {Threei}  :)

[11:51] {Threei}  here comes Timmy

[11:51] {ese} tinny timmy with the eukelele

[11:52] {Threei}  lol

[11:52] {ese} what ever happen him anyway   ....tiny tim...............does he still reside on this planet?

[11:53] {nemo} died about 5 years ago

[11:53] {ese} hmmm   didn't know that....how old nemo?

[11:53] {nemo} I think early 60's

[11:53] {ese} ah oh......bit young

[11:54] {RonS} heard the tulips got to him

[11:54] {nemo} just for info:  spy bounced right at 50% retracement of the 7/10 bottom

[11:55] {nemo} 5, years ago....hah, 15 years ago

[11:55] {nemo} boy time flies

[11:55] {ese} he never did learn....shoulda stopped doing tulips long ago

[11:55] {Threei}  ll... Tim says "we are working close with EU"

[11:55] {nemo} he dried the petals and snorted them

[11:55] {Threei}  EU thinks it's too close for their comfort obviously

[11:55] {ese} thats a given

[11:57] {Threei} Short Setup: HPQ  .75 break

[11:58] {Threei}  just a scalp most likely

[12:17] {Threei}  things stalled

[12:19] {nemo} looking for spy long

[12:19] {nemo} might just be a scalp

[12:19] {nemo} coming into trend line

[12:21] {Threei}  looks breakdownish to me...

[12:21] {nemo} could be vwap at .30

[12:21] {nemo} and .96 on IWM

[12:21] {nemo} would be logical spot

[12:27] {Threei}  break already HPQ

[12:35] {nemo} like tna if sp goes over .45

[12:46] {ese} cya tomorrow

[12:46] {Threei}  take care ese

[12:47] {dino} sm l ssys .14

[12:48] {dino} sm l gpc .08

[12:50] {Threei}  feel free to cover HPQ as you see fit

[12:51] {Threei}  just a scalp

[13:05] {dino}  ssys stop

[13:23] {dino} chk sm l .61

[13:29] {patience} good morning

[13:29] {patience} vad, do you have any sense for fcx

[13:29] {Threei}  down

[13:29] {Threei}  bottomless

[13:29] {patience} you are brilliant

[13:29] {Threei}  no support as far as eye can see

[13:29] {Threei}  I am?

[13:30] {patience} yup, needed another opinion

[13:30] {Threei}  good morning then

[13:30] {Threei}  and sorry for sending ese to throw stones at your window

[13:30] {patience} ran most of yesterday, can barely move my body to reach my coffee cup

[13:30] {patience} i needed broken windows to get me to apply for my freebie government rebate to replace the windows anyhow

[13:31] {Threei}  oh ok

[13:31] {Threei}  not sorry then

[13:31] {nemo} 38.13 spy below s3 which is 39.10  

[13:31] {nemo} fcx sorry

[13:31] {patience} ty, but please work with me to interpret

[13:32] {nemo} 39.10 is S3 pivot support on the daily, which is relatively extreme for movement in a single day

[13:32] {nemo} below that 38.13 seems to be price support

[13:33] {patience} ty  :)

[13:33] {nemo} below that I see 36.30 with possibility in the 36.90 area

[13:42] {dino} .

[13:52] {dino} mako

[13:55] {nemo} if you don't count the gap down, this has been a quiet day

[13:55] {dino} pretty boring from 11 on

[13:55] {Threei}  strangely quiet for the sizeable gap

[13:55] {Threei}  which doesn't bode way for the market btw

[13:55] {nemo} pre Fed effect

[13:56] {Threei}  if we don't get energetic bounce today, selling is far from done

[14:16] {dino} out gpc .48, +.40

[14:18] {dino} out chk .93, +.32

[14:31] {Threei}  nice

[14:32] {Threei}  took me a while to wake up anmd see those

[14:32] {Threei}  but better late than never

[14:41] {dino} thx

[14:42] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Min Venizelos: Talks with Troika officials are over; Announcement expected shortly

[14:42] {Threei}  get out of the way... no one knows what they are going to say and how it's going to move the market

[14:43] {dino} leaked?

[14:43] {Threei}  ot just hope

[14:43] {Threei}  (GE) Germany Chancellor Merkel affirms support for financial transaction (tobin) tax; must at least be implemented in Europe and ideally worldwide

[14:43] {Threei}  - It would be a disasterous political message if euro zone member states could be thrown out of the EMU because of difficulties.

[14:43] {Threei}  - Remains unclear whether there is even treaty language that allows the EMU to force a member state to stick to the rules.

[14:44] {Threei}  what a mess, jeez

[14:54] {nemo} difficulties???

[14:54] {Threei}  lol

[14:54] {nemo} oh jeez...

[14:57] {nemo} nothing personal, but I almost feel like the world deserves to collapse

[14:57] {nemo} 2012 can't come soon enough

[14:57] {nemo} flush this outhouse and start over

[14:59] {dino} light this candle

[14:59] {nemo} arguably the day is forming a nice bear flag

[15:00] {Threei}  bear?

[15:00] {nemo} 30 min chart

[15:01] {Threei}  on daily?

[15:01] {nemo} 30 min chart

[15:02] {Threei}  losing me

[15:02] {Threei}  show me the flag

[15:02] {Threei}  where it starts?

[15:03] {nemo} ok...hold on

[15:04] {nemo} just sent it

[15:07] {dino} pru l .58

[15:07] {nemo} see it?

[15:08] {nemo} or is it a figment of bunny's imagination...she pointed it out

[15:08] {RonS} had a feeling she wrote that article...

[15:08] {nemo} had to get a special keyboard for her paws

[15:09] {RonS} lol

[15:09] {Threei}  the flag starts at the point 1?

[15:10] {nemo} yeah, but that's "1" is starting to track the multi-time frame review for the week...that's the 50% retracement of the 7/10 bottom

[15:11] {Threei}  OK, I see what you mean

[15:11] {Threei}  somewhat weird time frame for me

[15:11] {Threei}  had to reconcile it with my charts

[15:11] {Threei}  and fainted twice in the process

[15:12] {dino} out pru .72, +.14

[15:12] {Threei}  careful

[15:12] {Threei}  idiots open their mouthes once again

[15:12] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Ministry claims that Greece is nearing a deal with Troika

[15:13] {Threei}  see how market sparkles immediately?

[15:18] {RonS} what a crock rally:  Some Work Still Needed To Quantify Measures - Greek Finance Official - Reuters

[15:19] {Threei}  heh

[15:19] {Threei}  in my view, it's just a brave face

[15:20] {Threei}  trying to put out some optimistic soundbites

[15:20] {Threei}  whatever they decide, it's unresolvable situation

[15:20] {dino} bingo, poli talk/spin

[15:30] {dino} gn all, gotta hop

[15:30] {dino} thx for ideas

[15:33] {Threei}  take care dino

[15:46] {Threei}  pretty sure it's a rally before the next headline

[15:51] {Threei}  OK guys, let's have a pleasant relaxing evening, see you tmorrow

[15:51] {patience} ty vad

Nemo's Findings

Multi Time-Frame Pivot Analysis

Many of you are familiar with Pivot Point analysis, which is a mathematical derivation based on previous price action.  It defines levels of probability for likely future price action.  Market Makers have often used Pivot Points across multiple time frames to find common adjacent levels between time frames that served as confluence zones - stronger levels of resistance or support ,than a single area alone.

Have you ever noticed that price stops or rises to a certain level that never particularly coincides with a previous level of support or resistance?  Oftentimes you will find that those levels coincide with prices calculated at a multi-time frame level.

I regularly employ charts of the SPY and IWM that map these levels, along with significant Fibonacci retracements, to define levels that may affect price action should they reach those levels.  Sometimes single levels end up affecting price action, many times, areas that contain multiple levels from multiple time zones, serve as confluence zones that are more likely to affect price.

Be warned, these levels are not predictive, but they do provide areas that may warrant your attention as price action approaches them.  I will provide on a weekly basis, these levels for the SPY and IWM, and will hopefully provide a recap of how those levels played out at the end of the week for the SPY to illustrate the concept.  So...

ñ     Pivot levels will be demarcated in Yellow and noted as Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, Semesterly, Yearly.

ñ     Resistance levels will be in progressively darker blues.  The darker the color, the longer the time-frame.

ñ     Support levels will be in progressively darker reds.

ñ     Fibonacci levels will be

◦       Red-most recent swing low or high

◦       Turquoise-from July '10 swing low

◦       White-from March '09 swing low to April '10 swing high

◦       Green- (SPY only) from 2007 high-2009 low.

ñ     The 50 SMA and 200 SMA will be labeled (remember these will change daily so you will need to import the format links to adjust them)

ñ     I will also provide subjective price levels as defined by the price action..I have found that some price levels, contrary to “Candle Theory”, will continue to have some significance even after they have been eclipsed.

ñ     You will also find links to import the format into Freestockcharts.com, and you may amend them as you see fit.

The charts will look very busy on larger time-scales.  They are primarily designed to be used for the upcoming week.  The 15-30 minute scale is optimum.

For the first installment, let's do an overview of the last week. Then we will look into the next week's expectations.

                                  SPY Multi Time-Frame review for week of 9/11

1.      Between the 12^th and 13^th the 61.8% retracement off the July '10 low served as the low

^2.        The yearly pivot point put a lid on the swing high at the beginning of the 13^th

3.      The 23.6% retracement served as support for the 13^th with...

4.      Support being handed off to the weekly pivot point.

5.      Weekly R1, served as a breakout level on the 14^th, and then support based on  the hammer closing above the line.

6.      The 38.2% retracement served as  support on the 15^th and somewhat fuzzy support on the 16^th.

7.      On the 16^th price action oscillated around the confluence zone of the 61.8% retracement of the 2007 high-2009 bottom, and the Monthly Pivot Point

ñ     We can also see that the 120.90 area served as resistance and support for price action.   This level first became significant on the 2^nd of September.   

                       

                      SPY/IWM Multi-Time Frame Pivots week of 9/17

Before we consider the charts just a couple of macro comments to keep in mind:

• The Fed has promised Europe to print an unlimited amount of dollars to support their banks.
• The Fed has a Two day meeting this week. Not the usual one. There must be something relatively large on the agenda for which the bearded one is trying to build consensus

Therefore, it's a reasonable assumption that we will get an announcement that will push money towards the risk trade, therefore stocks are likely to continue higher to test the August 31 SPY swing high with the next target being the upper boundary of the recent price channel. That swing high has a relatively strong confluence area starting at 123.00 with the 38.2% retracement of the July '10 low followed by the descending 50 sma, price action resistance then comes into play at 123.60. Above that, we're into the weekly resistance levels.

For IWM, there is a relatively strong confluence area prior to the peak of the 8/31 price action, but I would expect IWM to be a good doggy and follow the pack leader higher.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=2918e83a-8c52-4257-bf93-b607c13867f4

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e7b082a6-9707-4c16-9f08-4b2af3338408

Nemo

Trade The News Weekly market update: Market Week Wrap-up

Trade The News Weekly market update: Market Week Wrap-up

- There has been something of a reversal in sentiment as the choppy, highly volatile trading environment of the last six weeks gave way to impressive, steady gains in global equity markets for five consecutive sessions, even as the Greek situation appeared to go from bad to worse. In Europe, more rumors about sovereign downgrades and imminent, non-specific "announcements" by France and Germany, and reports of poor take-up in Greece's debt swap kept investors unsettled about the future of the Euro Zone. However none of these factors ultimately derailed the upswing in equities. Following plenty of chatter last week, Moody's cut the ratings of Societe Generale and Credit Agricole and Fitch cut ratings on five Spanish regional governments, but these also did not decisively turn markets lower. News that China would continue to reinvest its FX reserves in Europe, in the bonds of challenged sovereigns as well as other assets, helped sustain markets, as did continued ECB purchases of Irish and Spanish debt. In addition, action by leading central banks to supply European financial names with a three-month dollar repo facility helped bolster sentiment. In the US there were several discouraging data reports. The September Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that conditions worsened for a fourth consecutive month. Realtytrac's August foreclosure index jumped more than 7% sequentially, and default notices rose 40% or more in troubled states like New Jersey, Indiana and California, reinforcing reports that banks are stepping up foreclosure efforts. The weekly initial jobless claims ticked up more than expected. The preliminary September University of Michigan consumer confidence survey inched up from the very weak final August data. Treasury yields remain very low ahead of an FOMC meeting next week that could see the introduction of "Operation Twist," although the 10-year UST edged back above 2% by week's end as funds flowed back into equities. Gold sold off modestly this week, with spot gold closing out the week around $1,800/oz. For the week the DJIA gained 4.7%, the S&P500 grew 5.4% and the Nasdaq increased 6.3%.

- Research In Motion's Q2 earnings report may be a real turning point, although whether it will be a final wake-up call for management or the beginning of the end only time will tell. Earnings and sales for the quarter missed expectations and guidance for the full-year was revised down to the lower end of the firm's prior outlook. Margins are collapsing, though management blamed the phenomenon on its poorly received Playbook product. But most notable were numbers showing that the company was losing market share much faster than expected to rivals Apple and Google. Multiple analysts slashed ratings and estimates for the name overnight, and shares of RIMM were down more than 23% in the first few minutes of cash trade this morning. In other tech disaster news, on Thursday Netflix trimmed its total domestic US subscriber outlook for Q3 to 24M v 25M prior due to attrition from its recent price increase and separation of DVD and streaming services, sending its shares tumbling through the end of the week.

- With the third quarter nearly over corporations continue to update their fiscal guidance. At its annual investor day, MasterCard was upbeat about spending levels even as the economic recovery stalls, and stated that both US domestic and global transaction volumes continue to expand in its Q3. Steel names Nucor and Steel Dynamics offered very weak guidance for Q3. Nucor said profits would be down 40-50% sequentially, reflecting lower steel prices and metal margins, particularly for sheet mill products. Steel Dynamics cut its Q3 outlook nearly in half, due to tightening profit margins in its flat rolled segment and a tough pricing environment. Patriot Coal warned that its Q3 coal output would fall by around 6% on a sequential basis due to geological issues. Following guidance cuts from leading semi names last week, Lattice Semiconductor revised cut the upper end of its Q3 revenue outlook citing softening demand trends. Materials name Solutia cut its full-year view due to flagging demand truck and bus, solar and electronic end markets. On the positive side, Aetna said that it would beat its prior guidance range for FY11, based on lower utilization and better margins, and offered a positive initial look at its FY12 assumptions. Smith & Wesson hiked its FY12 revenue outlook slightly thanks to booming business for guns.

- In M&A news, unconfirmed reports on Friday suggested that United Technology was preparing for a potentially huge acquisition, with stories indicating the firm is ready to spend $20B to nab a competitor. Analysts discussed various potential targets, including Tyco International, Honeywell, Goodrich and Textron. Follow-up press reports said that the company was looking to spend much less than the initial $20B figure. Yahoo's board met with private equity investors to discuss strategic options this week. In a filing, holder Third Point stated that it intends to remove Chairman Bostock with the help of founder and former CEO Jerry Yang. McGraw Hill disclosed that it plans to separate into two separate traded companies, following recent demands by activist investors to unlock value in the firm. Broadcom said that it had a deal to acquire NetLogic for $50/share, in a deal valued at $3.7B. The buy should expand Broadcom's lineup of chips used in wireless network equipment. Ralcorp slumped late Friday ahead of a Monday deadline set by ConAgra for entering negotiations over its $5.2B bid that Ralcorp has already rejected.

- The euro pushed out to six-month lows as of Monday as the fiscal stability of Greece further deteriorated. Comments from a range of European officials indicated that some leading European figures were coming to the realization that a Greek default could be a reality. With this scenario in sight, the EU Commission's Manuel Barroso said that the all-powerful Commission would present options for setting up a euro bond system under existing European treaties. Unsurprisingly, the Germans were not thrilled with this, and Chancellor Merkel reiterated once again that euro bonds are absolutely not a solution. Global central banks teamed up to squelch the emerging liquidity crisis at European banks, while speculation picked up that BRIC nations would ramp up investments in the euro zone, although it remains unclear to what extent they would be able to rescue Europe from itself. There were reports that the Italians were negotiating with China to buy bonds, but the weak Italian five-year bond auction on Tuesday suggested that nothing has been agreed to as of yet. Later reports stated that China was looking to make investments in Italian infrastructure instead.

- The three-month dollar repo facility launched by the Fed, ECB, BoJ, SNB and BoE on Thursday has potentially taken the risk of a funding crunch at European banks off the table. EUR/USD surged to test above 1.3935 after the announcement, although dealers were concerned that the pair was unable to regain the 1.40 handle; the pair was back around 1.3800 within 24 hours. Analysts were somewhat concerned about details regarding the mechanics of the repo facility, namely the very high 20% collateral surcharge for the three-month operations; compare this to the 12% surcharge charged for one-week repo operations. In addition, tapping these lines would temporarily increase the Fed balance sheet, creating intangible "political risk" in the United States (recall the accusations of "treason" GOP presidential hopeful Rick Perry aimed at Fed Chairman Bernanke).

- European officials gathered in Wroclaw, Poland on Friday to attend a Euro Group summit, which included a special appearance by US Treasury Secretary Geithner. Little in the way of concrete measures emerged from the meeting. Austria Finance Minister Fechter suggested that the next tranche of aid for Greece would be paid, although disbursement would be slightly later than expected, on October 14th. Greece was said to be planning to tap its domestic bank liquidity facility in order to bridge the funding gap. There was talk that Europe may be mulling a TALF-like program to help resolve the crisis, although little mention of such a program emerged from the summit. Geithner was said to have pressed the Euro Group to leverage up the EFSF, although ECB Chief Trichet later denied that any talks about bolstering the EFSF had taken place.

- Sterling benefitted from weekend press reports that UK Chancellor Osborne saw no barriers to a second round of quantitative easing if a request came from the BoE. GBP/USD also benefited from the coordinated central bank repo operation, but faced headwinds from former hawk Weale, as he noted that the risk of recession had increased since July and added that growth prospects had worsened again in recent weeks. EUR/CHF was little changed above 1.20 as the SNB reiterated its commitment to the floor. There were also suggestions that the floor could be pushed higher over time. Late in the week USD/JPY was inching higher on vague rumors the BoJ was checking FX rates in the interbank market.

- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at 2.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting as expected. Accompanying RBNZ commentary struck a more cautious tone over global turmoil while downplaying improving domestic situation, spoiling expectations of reversal from a 50bps post-earthquake policy accommodation back in March. RBNZ Gov Bollard was also non-committal with regards to any policy tightening and only indicated that at some point rates will have to rise. He also expressed little concern about inflation. Private sector economists pushed back expectations for RBNZ tightening to March of 2012 from December of this year after the RBNZ statement, while NZD tested 1-month low of $0.8120.

- Beijing was once again billed as the "lender of last resort," helping risk sentiment recover early in the week on rumors of a Chinese delegation meeting Italian officials about backstopping Rome's fiscal slump with a timely purchase of government debt. Speaking later in the week, PBoC adviser Li Daokui affirmed Chinese interest in Italian bonds over the short term, but also called on the central bank to refrain from "blindly" buying large amounts of EU debt. Meanwhile, China foreign direct investment continued to slide in August, falling to 17.7% ytd/y increase, an 8-month low


TradeTheNews