Market Week Wrap-up

- Contagion from the European crisis spread further this week as Greece failed to form a government and pressure built up the banking systems of both Spain and Greece. New elections were scheduled for June 17th in Greece, prompting intense speculation about the chances of the pro- and anti-bailout parties. With the situation in Athens deteriorating further, there were fears that there could be a run on peripheral euro zone banks. On Monday alone, depositors withdrew €700M from Greek banks (since the beginning of the crisis, withdrawals have averaged between €2B and €3B a month). In Spain, there were reports that depositors had withdrawn more than €1B from Bankia following its partial nationalization last week. Moody's followed through on its earlier warnings and downgraded the Italian and Spanish banking systems. Safe-haven follows pushed the debt of northern European nations--Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and the Scandinavian countries--to record lows. The yield on the 10-year UST briefly dipped below 1.7% on Thursday, equaling the lows seen at the depths of the crisis last fall. Beyond Europe, global growth concerns were contrasted with some not-bad news out of Japan and the US. In China, the PBoC cut the reserve requirement ratio for the third time since last fall in an attempt to pump more funds into its ailing banking sector, although the move was widely expected. Worries about Japan eased as the nation's preliminary Q1 GDP data came in much stronger than expected and the government upgraded its economic forecasts for the first time in nine months, although that did not keep the Nikkei index from closing out the week at 12-week lows. In the US, April industrial production rose on a y/y basis the most since December 2010, and both April housing starts and building permits were very strong, but the lowest Philadelphia Fed reading in nine months wiped out any positive data momentum. After two weeks of hype, some trading glitches at Nasdaq briefly delayed the opening of Facebook, which started trading at $42.05 on Friday morning and finished the day at $38, right where the IPO had priced the day before. President Obama is hosting the G8 in Maryland this weekend, and while no major policy developments are expected, there has been plenty of chatter this week that leaders will discuss potential plans to calm markets and cope with potential Greece exit scenarios. Risk aversion grew late in the week, with gold rising 3.5% on Thursday and Friday, and the VIX volatility index rose above 25 to its highest level since December. US equity indices closed at the lows of the week on Friday, and on Thursday many traders noted with trepidation that the Dow Jones Transportations closed below the April/March lows. The DJIA had its worst week of the year, losing 3.5%, while the S&P500 declined 4.3% and the Nasdaq dropped 5.3%.

- Retail earnings out this week continued to be very mixed. Retail giants Walmart and Target met or beat consensus expectations, with low same-store sales gains. Walmart's CEO said that customers were still trading down to lower prices and smaller baskets of goods. Meanwhile Target executives said comps would be only up slightly in Q2, indicating a deceleration. In regards to the Mexico bribery story, Walmart said the investigation was not expected to have a material impact on its business. Investors dumped Home Depot after its Q1 results merely met expectations and the firm barely raised FY12 guidance enough to meet the consensus view.

- Discount apparel chain TJX posted a record high profit in Q1, citing strong sales in Europe, of all places. Meanwhile JC Penny had a terrible Q1, with a huge loss, very soft revenue and a whopping 19% decline in comps. The firm discontinued its dividend and launched another round of cost cutting. New CEO Johnson defended the firm, saying more short-term pain was needed as the company turned around its sales culture. High-end department stores Saks and Nordstroms missed consensus expectations, although sales comps stayed pretty strong. Abercrombie and Fitch saw a big miss on the top line in Q1, with comps down 5%. Limited Brands was in line with expectations in its Q1, although its Q2 guidance was very soft and its FY12 outlook was only raised enough to just meet estimates.

- On the M&A front, Agilent Technologies said it would acquire Danish electronics testing company Dako for $2.2B in cash. Agilent has a strong presence in the life sciences field and Dako supplies cancer diagnosis to pathology laboratories. Note that the deal comes after device maker Hologic said it would buy diagnostic test firm Gen-Probe Inc for $3.8B in cash. Casino name Boyd Gaming said it would acquire Peninsula Gaming for $1.5B, adding five properties in Kansas, Iowa and Louisiana. Shares of Avon plummeted after Coty withdrew its $24.75/shr offer to acquire the firm.

- After attempts to form a Greek government flopped and new elections were scheduled for mid June, more and more European officials spoke frankly about the potential departure of Greece from the euro zone. On Friday reports circulated that the EU Commission and the ECB were working on contingency plans for a Greece exit. The commission later denied the assertion, while a senior EU official later said that the existence of contingency plans does not mean a Greek exit is a foregone conclusion. Later there were reports that Chancellor Merkel was recommending Greece conduct a referendum on euro zone membership simultaneously with the new election (this too was later denied by a German government spokesman, after Greek politicians rebuked Germany for interfering in it internal politics). Central bankers in various non-EMU European nations, chiefly the UK, said they were preparing for the worst.

- The euro was hammered through the first four days of the week thanks to dire conditions in Greece and Spain. EUR/USD kept pushing out to four-month lows through Friday morning, entering the week just above 1.2940 and dropping to a low of 1.2640 in the wee hours of Friday morning. The only relief for the pair came in the wake of much better than expected preliminary Q1 German GDP numbers and a flat reading in the preliminary euro zone Q1 GDP (narrowly exceeding expectations for a negative reading) on Tuesday morning, which briefly lifted the single currency. However, Greece, Italy and Portugal all reported negative preliminary Q1 GDP figures, highlighting the failures of austerity and the emergence of a two-speed European economy.

- In other FX trading, GBP/USD slumped following BOE quarterly inflation report which was viewed as more dovish. The report raised the BoE's short-term CPI view but also indicated that inflation would be on target in the two-to-three year time frame. USD/CAD was also broadly weaker and took out the key 1.0070 level.

- In China, the PBoC's RRR reduction was estimated to free up additional CNY400B for China's strained banking system, where the top four state-run banks were said to have issued virtually no new loans in the first half of May. Slumping demand for credit was further reflected in the latest China housing price data that showed yet another y/y decline in prices across 46 out of 70 cities, up from 37 cities reported in the prior month. Regional commodity currencies accelerated their losses, as AUD/USD and NZD/USD both hit 6-month lows below $0.98 and $0.7530 level respectively.

- Economic data out of Japan offered a silver lining to an otherwise downbeat week. Q1 preliminary GDP topped estimates at 1.0% q/q, while the revised final Q4 GDP saw a flat print rather than a 0.2% contraction previously reported. On Friday, Japan cabinet office also upgraded its economic assessment for the first time in 9 months, pointing to continued construction-related demand while downplaying European worries. Nikkei225 remained under pressure however, as USD/JPY fell below the pivotal 79.50 support late in the week - level corresponding to the point when the G7 launched its last round of coordinated FX intervention back in March of 2011. The disappointing Philly Fed reading in the US helped JPY benefit at the expense of the greenback, however markets also took note of undersubscribed BOJ asset-buying operation on the short-end of the curve on Wednesday and on the long-term debt on Friday. This could effectively limit BOJ's ability to ease policy further, potentially capping USD/JPY gains to its mid-March highs for some time.

TradeTheNews

May 18 2012

Overall, a decent day although I could have handled last hour better - misread some bounces causing couple unnecessary stops. Quite nervous week for the markets, plenty of rinses, way more than normally. Main question remains - will Facebook buy out Greece or will Greece reboot itself as a social network?

Session Time: Fri May 18 00:00:00 2012

[09:16] {Threei}  strapless bra again this morning?

[09:19] {Threei}  Spain's banking sector said to be calling on market regulator for renewed ban on short-selling

[09:19] {Threei}  yeah, that'll help

[09:20] {RonS} gm everyone

[09:20] {cc_8} hello

[09:21] {Threei}  ron, cc8 :)

[09:21] {Beau} good morning all

[09:21] {Threei}  beau :)

[09:25] {thomcbell} closing trin and trinq was very muted - surprised 

[09:25] {ese} ahhhhh

[09:25] {thomcbell} very high closing tick readings though - highest in some time 

[09:25] {ese} morning

[09:25] {thomcbell} trin and trinq show very methodical selling - not capitulation

[09:25] {Threei}  ese :)

[09:26] {Threei}  what was the problem?

[09:26] {Threei}  doesn't feel like capitulation to me either, tbell

[09:26] {Threei}  I rely on general sense more than on indicators for this... and we are far from real all-out panic

[09:28] {dino} gm

[09:29] {Threei}  dino :)

[09:29] {Threei}  EU) Some major banks have told clients that there could be a strong rally in risky assets if Greece is forced out of the Euro Zone - London Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard- The analysts believe that if Greece left the Euro, global authorities would support markets by providing large amounts of liquidity. - Bank of America believes that there could be a "powerful short squeeze" in risk assets if there were a Greek exit. Also, the firm believes that in such a situation, the Euro would rise to $1.40 against the USD after falling to $1.20. Believes that initial panic selling could drive the Euro down to $1.20, before it rebounds.

[09:29] {Threei}  idiots

[09:30] {Threei}  JOPM bounce candidate

[09:30] {Threei}  JPM

[09:31] {Threei}  too fast... got away for now

[09:33] {_ristorates} gdx moving again

[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .80 break hl

[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .70 

[09:34] {Threei}  change to .70 break

[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .60 

[09:37] {nemo} gdx going

[09:37] {Threei}  no worky JPM

[09:37] {Threei}  too bad, nice double bottom was forming

[09:39] {Threei}  nice pullback GDX

[09:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .45 break

[09:41] {Threei}  change to .40

[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .30 

[09:42] {nemo} spy coming into yesterday low, not seeing long there yet

[09:42] {Threei}  change to .30

[09:43] {Threei}  If holds  .20 

[09:44] {nemo} iwm setting up long, but spy iffy

[09:44] {Threei}  weakness is quite profound

[09:44] {nemo} .20 break tna  half lot

[09:45] {Threei}  GDX target 1:2

[09:46] {Threei}  1:1

[09:46] {nemo} stop to entry on tna

[09:46] {nemo} this is iffy territory

[09:47] {nemo} 1:1

[09:47] {Threei}  1:2, out

[09:47] {cc_8} market is weak, alot of my guys that are long are getting hurt

[09:47] {cc_8} long other stocks though

[09:50] {dino} feels like lehman all over

[09:50] {nemo} out under .29

[09:50] {Threei}  still ahead dino

[09:51] {Threei}  it's pre-lehman

[09:51] {nemo} yeah, but this time lehman=Europe

[09:51] {Threei}  yup

[09:51] {nemo} I'm waiting for the cannabalism stories

[09:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .30 break

[09:52] {nemo} 1:2

[09:53] {Threei}  nice

[09:53] {nemo} trying for .60 last piece

[09:53] {Threei}  target 1:2

[09:55] {Threei}  stop to .24

[09:55] {nemo} i'm out last .50

[09:55] {nemo} working too hard

[09:55] {RonS} gj nemo

[09:55] {nemo} ty ron

[09:56] {Threei}  out

[09:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .50 break

[09:57] {Threei}  stop .44

[09:58] {Threei}  (GR) EU's Rehn: Currently working to keep Greece in the EMU: political parties must respect prior decisions; Spain does not need EU aid to fix its banking system- Affirms Spain has not requested aid for its banking system and the regions budgets are in line with targets

[09:59] {dino} lol

[09:59] {dino} down we go

[10:00] {Threei}  market getting spooked again

[10:04] {Threei}  nervous up and down

[10:04] {Threei}  let's pick safest setups and keep stops tight

[10:04] {Threei}  listless trading so far

[10:04] {nemo} op ex friday also

[10:05] {Threei}  and FB ahead

[10:05] {Threei}  around 11 I think

[10:05] {nemo} clear as Vad's mind out there

[10:05] {Threei}  both SLW and GDX rinsed

[10:05] {RonS} some saying europe short ban sends things down...

[10:05] {Threei}  quite possible

[10:06] {Threei}  everyone knows it doesn't work and only demonstrates weakness

[10:06] {nemo} but after a week like this you might see short covering today, if we don't see short covering, can you say "Black Monday"?

[10:06] {Threei}  no one knows... too many developments

[10:08] {dino} gut feel, steady drind down until greek elections

[10:08] {dino} griind

[10:08] {dino} grind, sheesh

[10:09] {ese} yup agreed

[10:09] {nemo} wonder if the Israeli's can swing buy GReece on their way back from Iran

[10:09] {nemo} was that harsh?

[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  HRL  .70 break

[10:09] {dino} lol

[10:09] {RonS} no, funny

[10:09] {RonS} ?

[10:09] {Threei}  If holds  .60 

[10:09] {ese} facebook should should be a little pop up today though.....then dn

[10:10] {Threei}  I'd think so... everyone and their brother valling bottom

[10:11] {RonS} lol...fb set to come out and 3i trades spam

[10:11] {nemo} gdx interesting

[10:11] {Threei}  GDX forms .60 break setup, but they get rinsed today

[10:11] {Threei}  so let's try and buy the rinse

[10:12] {Threei}  if it breaks and drops under .50 stopping breakout buyers, this is where we want to try and enter why their stops are hit

[10:12] {Threei}  where

[10:13] {thomcbell} vad i feel like this gdx can be two sided 

[10:13] {thomcbell} leaning long obviously 

[10:13] {Threei}  .50 break short?

[10:14] {Threei}  could be... I just feel hesitant agout shorting the strongest sector out there

[10:14] {thomcbell} y - scratch it 

[10:14] {dino} gs sm l .0

[10:14] {dino} .01

[10:15] {thomcbell} lvs - after a 23 day consecutive decline shows relative strength 

[10:15] {thomcbell} lol

[10:17] {Threei}  HRL invalidated

[10:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break

[10:22] {ese} L PHMD .95

[10:22] {ese} sm

[10:23] {Threei}  .64 stop

[10:23] {ese} L CAR .61

[10:24] {ese} maybe shoulda waited til car covered the gap a little more but.......we'll see

[10:26] {Threei}  no go

[10:27] {ese} venturing into your territory dino with phmd

[10:29] {dino} gs stop -.38

[10:30] {dino} no feel for it ese

[10:32] {ese} PHMD: Reports Q1 $0.56 v $0.28e, R$50.3M v $46Me (18.34, +0.41, 2.29%)  

[10:33] {ese} wether it bounces today or not am not sure but have a feeling that it will

[10:34] {ese} Out Car 1/2 .71 +.10 balance to break even

[10:34] {dino} ok

[10:34] {ese} car BABY !!!!!!!! do it!!!!!!

[10:36] {ese} working on the infamous 1k/1k split technique.........it's the feel good technique

[10:36] {ese} stop to .65 balance

[10:36] {ese} to .69

[10:37] {dino} hibb drop

[10:38] {dino} sm l .03

[10:38] {ese} is that a new dance move.........the "hibb drop"

[10:38] {dino} indeed

[10:38] {dino} beat and raised

[10:39] {ese} lol

[10:39] {Threei}  GDX...

[10:39] {Threei}  no rinse this time

[10:39] {ese} car stop to .75

[10:39] {Threei}  shrug

[10:39] {ese} nice

[10:39] {ese} to .80

[10:40] {dino} gj

[10:40] {ese} stopped .80 +.29 car .....the 1k/1k split

[10:41] {ese} tks

[10:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  WYN  .25 break

[10:44] {ese} phmd not working out so good though.........it's spooky being in a stock thats this thin......don't know how you do it dino

[10:44] {dino} phmd sm l .92

[10:44] {Threei}  If holds  .20 

[10:44] {Threei}  half out .34

[10:44] {dino} small size is the answer ese

[10:45] {Beau} missed-too fast

[10:45] {dino} dhi l .00

[10:45] {Threei}  .27 was obtainable...

[10:45] {ese} ya....400 is all here

[10:45] {dino} same

[10:47] {Threei}  out in full

[10:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  CCL  .25 break

[10:48] {Threei}  If holds  .20 

[10:51] {Threei}  FB CNBC: Facebook shares indicating near $45/shr at the moment

[10:52] {Threei}  I see 50 and 60 bids blinking

[10:52] {Threei}  75

[10:52] {Threei}  lol

[10:52] {ese} car ....nice move towards .00

[10:52] {Threei}  150

[10:52] {Threei}  sigh

[10:52] {cipher} out hibb .62 +.80 thx dino

[10:52] {Threei}  suckers are being set up

[10:52] {Threei}  wtg

[10:53] {ese} whoa.....nice ciber

[10:53] {cipher} ty

[10:54] {dino} gj cipher

[10:54] {RonS} gj cider

[10:54] {RonS} ...trying to make ese feel good

[10:55] {ese} lol

[10:55] {dino} butchering his name, lol

[10:56] {dino} out hibb .07, +1.04

[10:56] {cipher} wtg dino

[10:56] {dino} ty buddy

[10:56] {ese} well done guys.......

[10:57] {ese} picture vad sitting back in his chair twiddling thumbs ...nodding head......feeling proud!!!

[10:57] {dino} out dhi .12, +.12

[10:58] {dino} roflol

[10:58] {Threei}  lol

[10:59] {ese} either that or its the infamous chin slump and he's big time asleep

[10:59] {Threei}  how is it mutually exclusive?

[10:59] {ese} lol

[11:02] {cipher} hibb s .28

[11:04] {RonS} dino, watch gsvc off this fb open

[11:04] {dino} ok

[11:06] {RonS} delayed 'til 11:15

[11:07] {dino} they own 350000 shares of fb common

[11:08] {RonS} their twitter holdings are the ticket w/ them imo

[11:10] {dino} most stories are not favorable for gsvc

[11:11] {dino} nice hibb short cipher

[11:11] {cipher} cov hibb .96 ave +.32

[11:11] {cipher} ty

[11:13] {Threei} Short Setup: PRU  .05 break hl

[11:13] {Threei}  If holds  .15 

[11:17] {Threei}  Invalidated  

[11:18] {RonS} lol...I want to buy $FB at the HIGH of the day so maybe i'll get on TV :)

[11:18] {Threei}  lol

[11:19] {dino} as long as i know you'll buy my shares, we have a deal

[11:21] {dino} phmd to flat, don't like mkt dropping

[11:22] {RonS} lol...FB please give me back the last 22 min of my life

[11:25] {RonS} fb open skyrocketing to the 4th biggest lie known to mankind

[11:27] {RonS} fb delayed purposely to torture cnbc...

[11:28] {ese} L car .88

[11:29] {ese} phmd is crawling slower than a snakes belly in a wagon rut

[11:29] {RonS} lol...America is crisi...fb open delayed...never forget

[11:29] {Threei}  open

[11:29] {RonS} crisis

[11:29] {cc_8} Facebook is trading

[11:31] {ese} good luck trying to get in

[11:32] {RonS} wow 95 mil shares in 3 min

[11:32] {_ristorates} weak

[11:33] {dino} dropping

[11:33] {_ristorates} oh oh

[11:36] {ese} my quotes say $128.00 ask $40.00 offer.........bizzare

[11:38] {ese} 08:36TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Facebook Mania Distracts from Europe  Have Market Intel? TradeTheNews.com 

[11:38] {RonS} svvc crash

[11:38] {ese} ya right.......as the mrkt tanks

[11:38] {RonS} Zynga shares halted after Facebook's debut 

[11:38] {dino} trading at 40.01-40.02

[11:38] {Threei}  ZNGA halted

[11:40] {ese} my quotes are all f't up dino...showing $125 bid $40 offer

[11:41] {dino} schwab/cyber trading 39.99-40.00 now

[11:41] {dino} trading fine

[11:43] {RonS} $2 swing in 1 min...trading fine?

[11:45] {RonS} wow  fcx new low

[11:46] {thomcbell} slw vulnerable here

[11:46] {thomcbell} look at auy 

[11:46] {dino} meant my bid/ask were fine

[11:48] {Threei}  not veru inspiring debut so far

[11:48] {RonS} i know...just saying maybe ese is lucky...so he doesn't get sucked into trading this 

[11:49] {nemo} it drops 38 could take market with it

[11:49] {nemo} too many orders on the bid for my display

[11:50] {Threei}  TNA scalp is coming

[11:50] {RonS} wow...offer size at 38

[11:50] {nemo} .73 on iwm, wait until spy gets closer to .15

[11:51] {nemo} I'd be worried about a bounce if FB drops 38

[11:51] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .20 break hl

[11:51] {Threei}  change to .10

[11:51] {Threei}  stop under 45

[11:52] {Threei}  target 1:3

[11:52] {ese} OK Vad.........ya got some splainin ta do.......how is it tha the mrkt views this one negatively.....i'm watchin the spyders and there tankin

[11:52] {Threei}  1:1

[11:52] {Threei}  hold on ese, lemme finish TNA

[11:52] {ese} definitely

[11:53] {Threei}  scalpers win

[11:54] {nemo} nobody listens to me..sniff...sniff

[11:54] {Threei}  it's easy:

[11:54] {Threei}  Europe concerns never went anywhere, situation worsens by day,

[11:54] {Threei}  FB IPO was a hot issue giving hope that it could dxcemonstrate market eagerness

[11:55] {ese} i'm all ears nemo.......hit me with it

[11:55] {Threei}  It didn't happenm IPO is not doubling

[11:55] {cipher} got small shares just for fun... FB l .02

[11:55] {Threei}  so market shrugs and disappointedly returns to its usual programming

[11:56] {nemo} vad, look for tna bounce when spy get's between .10-15

[11:56] {cipher} out fb .40 +.38

[11:56] {ese} I can buy that

[11:56] {dino} gj

[11:56] {cipher} now I can be on TV :-)

[11:56] {nemo} how ya' diapers cipher?

[11:56] {Threei}  lol

[11:56] {ese} nice cipher

[11:56] {ese} 10 shs

[11:56] {ese} ya said sm

[11:56] {cipher} still dry nemo :-)

[11:56] {nemo} he obviously never saw you trade FITB in your heyday

[11:57] {nemo} ese

[11:57] {ese} lol

[11:57] {ese} ya......dem dere 5k 10k 15k days are over

[11:58] {ese} rare occurance now

[11:58] {_ristorates} money goes back into AAPL?

[11:58] {Threei}  ugh TNA

[11:58] {Threei}  at the target

[11:58] {ese} hmmmmmmm......now theres a thought

[11:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .10 break

[11:59] {Threei}  If holds  42 

[12:00] {dino} dhi l .85

[12:03] {Threei}  1:1

[12:04] {dino} out gdx +.12 ty vad

[12:04] {dino} out dhi .97, +.12

[12:06] {Threei}  :)

[12:12] {ese} L car .77 avg .85

[12:13] {dino} meli spike

[12:13] {dino} hibb sm l ave .75

[12:17] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/Qz3BO

[12:21] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  42 break

[12:22] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[12:25] {thomcbell} gld is holding onto decent day 

[12:26] {nemo} C&H on spy and iwm

[12:28] {ese} good article vad......and speaking of which......when my summer holidays start i'm planning on doing the chart pattern recognition course...can always use an extra edge

[12:29] {Threei}  cool beans

[12:29] {Threei}  GDX is valid

[12:29] {ese} yup

[12:30] {Threei}  not anymore

[12:31] {ese} dino ...you stopped out of phmd?

[12:32] {dino} yes, flat

[12:32] {ese} i'm still hangin

[12:32] {dino} all things considered, it held well in that mkt drop

[12:34] {ese} ya

[12:34] {dino} kmp drop

[12:35] {dino} sm l .45

[12:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .89 break small shares

[12:38] {Threei}  half out

[12:38] {Threei}  stop .85

[12:39] {Threei}  out in full

[12:39] {thomcbell} long setup slw 25.01 break if holding 24.890

[12:39] {Threei}  can I be on TV too now?

[12:40] {ese} car.......am startin to love this stock

[12:40] {Threei}  Facebook profited from me, no doubt... time for me to profit from it

[12:43] {thomcbell} slw still below the O.R. unlike GDX 

[12:44] {Threei}  lol:

[12:44] {Threei}  ATHENS (The Borowitz Report) � After struggling for months with an intractable financial crisis, Greece announced today that it would cease to exist as a sovereign nation and would instead reboot itself as a social network.

[12:44] {Threei}  The new entity, FetaBook, is expected to raise much-needed billions in an upcoming IPO.

[12:44] {thomcbell} out slw -0.12

[12:44] {dino} schn blood

[12:47] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .15 break

[12:47] {Threei}  If holds  .20 

[12:49] {Threei}  change to .20 break

[12:49] {Threei}  If holds  .25 

[12:53] {Threei}  half out

[12:54] {Threei}  stop to .21

[12:54] {Threei}  scalpers feel free to take profit

[13:03] {RonS} Prince Alwaleed invested $300 mil in twitter...Bloomberg

[13:04] {Threei}  out 1/4 more FCX

[13:05] {Threei}  stop to .11

[13:06] {Threei}  look at 1 min, how neat the setup looks

[13:12] {RonS} lol...twitter just went down for me...

[13:13] {RonS} nice timing Prince

[13:13] {Threei}  lol

[13:13] {RonS} ...now back

[13:21] {Threei}  (GR) Germany Chancellor Merkel recommends Greece conduct a referendum on Euro Zone membership simultaneously with the upcoming Greece election - financial press

[13:22] {Threei}  I'd rather suggest referndum on repaying debt to eurozone... they may vote to remain in it but only on their own conditions, lol

[13:22] {RonS} ha, so what...they will vote for membership and parties to flake commitments

[13:22] {Threei}  now, this is pure beauty:

[13:22] {Threei}  (EU) US President Obama and President Hollande have both agreed Greece should stay within the EMU

[13:22] {Threei}  Have Market Intel? TradeTheNews.com Tip Line -} Click Here

[13:23] {RonS} schn no buyers to be found

[13:23] {_ristorates} Good for gld? More bailouts

[13:23] {Threei}  total deja vu of a post-soviet joke: Argentina and Belarus signed a peace agreement between Moldova and Mongolia

[13:25] {Threei}  covering last piece of FCX

[13:25] {Threei}  +.26

[13:26] {Threei}  too many moving parts, ristorates...

[13:26] {Threei}  one of scenarios, sure

[13:26] {Threei}  but there are others

[13:29] {Threei}  what, no one took FCX?

[13:29] {Threei}  one of the cleanest setups today

[13:31] {Threei}  sigh... time to go to a monastery...

[13:31] {Threei}  noone listens to me anyway

[13:32] {Threei}  might just as well spend my days reciting ommm mahny padme hoommm

[13:32] {dino} gj

[13:32] {Threei}  just need a cave woth internet so I don't miss gems like this:

[13:32] {Threei}  In retrospect, the FB tattoo might have been a bad idea

[13:32] {Threei}  lol

[13:33] {dino} out kmp .28 -.17

[13:38] {Threei}  aww... too soon, FCX

[13:40] {dino} typical eod selloff in the making

[13:48] {ese} yawwwwwwwwwnnnnnn.........do do do do..........yawnnnnnnnnnnn

[13:49] {ese} thinkin about going L fb here....could be a nice little break out at 42

[13:49] {ese} opps...so much for that

[13:51] {RonS} LVS short 3i?

[13:51] {Threei}  I think so

[13:51] {Threei}  just tiggered

[13:51] {Threei}  stop above .20

[13:56] {dino} thinking about mowing the lawn....

[13:57] {Threei}  I hate those thoughts

[13:57] {RonS} ...living the dream, eh?

[13:57] {dino} lol

[13:57] {Threei}  I am usually having them for 3-4 days, then they turn reality

[13:57] {Threei}  and that's the part I hate the most

[14:07] {Threei}  1:1 LVS

[14:07] {Threei}  almost 1:2

[14:07] {Threei}  good spot Ron

[14:08] {Threei}  I can hardly see anything, my eyes are covered by tears caused by premature FCX cover

[14:12] {ese} well......whats it gonna be phmd.......ehhhhhhh.......got things to do today

[14:21] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[14:22] {Threei}  FAZ at the high

[14:22] {RonS} man, why have we not been shorting met...?

[14:23] {ese} hmmmmmmmmmm got me there

[14:23] {Threei}  I tried to short PRU

[14:23] {Threei}  got invalidated

[14:23] {Threei}  [11:13] {Threei} Short Setup: PRU .05 break hl

[14:23] {Threei}  [11:13] {Threei} If holds .15

[14:23] {Threei}  [11:17] {Threei} Invalidated

[14:23] {ese} your human after all

[14:24] {ese} well........

[14:24] {Threei}  but MET is much weaker

[14:24] {ese} that just destroys my image of you

[14:29] {ese} although........hmmmmmmmm.....the image of barbequeing shiskabobs is still very stong in my mind however

[14:29] {Threei}  lol

[14:29] {ese} the image of you

[14:29] {ese} that is

[14:32] {dino} 2495 ndx filled

[14:32] {dino} 12421 fill dji

[14:32] {dino} s/p 1289 open, 1257, 1195, 1155

[14:33] {dino} calling it a week. thx all, some great ideas, appreciate the help

[14:33] {Threei}  have a good weekend dino

[14:34] {dino} u2

[14:34] {Threei}  what a disastrous turn of the day for bulls

[14:35] {RonS} cya dino...have some mow fun...

[14:35] {Threei}  just whe it klooked they had a shot at reversal

[14:36] {RonS} ya McClellan closed yest -100.8...now at -104

[14:36] {RonS} flash crash was -140 so guess there can be more

[14:37] {nemo} looking at 4 hour charts of spy and IWM, they are shaping up for a bounce, maybe not today though

[14:39] {Threei}  and with all this, do you have a sense of capitulation s'elling?

[14:39] {Threei}  I ansolutely don't

[14:39] {Threei}  still orderly selling, slow slide

[14:40] {Threei}  no large scale panic yet

[14:43] {RonS} 3i...check out the pipeline 6-12 mo charts...like kmr, mwe, kmp others

[14:43] {RonS} unreal w/ the yields...if the natty guys are shutting in wells is thai causing it?

[14:43] {RonS} this

[14:44] {Threei}  I've no idea... your guess is as good as mine

[14:44] {Threei}  there are so many conflicting happenings in energy swector

[14:47] {Threei}  if you want an evidence for what disarray Europe is in, read this:

[14:47] {Threei}  (GR) Germany Govt Spokesperson denies Merkel called on Greece to consider a referendum

[14:47] {Threei}  - Follow up: 14:40ET: Greece President office confirms Merkel recommended referendum for Euro

[14:50] {Threei}  (GR) Reports now said to indicate that the ECB along with the EU Commission are working on contingency in case of Greece EMU exit - press

[14:50] {Threei}  - Said to be evaluating any impact on the firewall and banking institutions.

[14:50] {Threei}  - Follow up: EU official notes the existence of contingency plans do not assume a Greece Euro exit will occur.

[14:50] {Threei}  **Reminder: Earlier the EU Trade Commissioner de Gucht: commented that the ECB and the EU Commission are working on emergency scenarios for a Greek euro exit; and later reports disclosed that the EU commission had denied the reports that it was working on emergency plans

[14:52] {Threei}  let's see if we get some bounce here to scalp

[14:53] {Threei}  TNA pullback to about .30 - .35 for entry, half lot

[14:54] {Threei}  .35 break long

[14:54] {Threei}  If holds  .25 

[14:55] {nemo} might want spy to hold .95 too

[14:55] {Threei}  target 1:3

[14:59] {Threei}  nope

[14:59] {nemo} wow, wynn today

[15:07] {RonS} nemo, you may find this interesting after the market closes...http://tinyurl.com/7le54el

[15:08] {nemo} I've been checking out some of my HFT trackers on Facebook since it opened

[15:13] {RonS} guess the last time sp down 12 of 14 days...

[15:14] {Threei}  1987?

[15:14] {RonS} August 1974

[15:14] {Threei}  wow

[15:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  75 break hl

[15:17] {Threei}  If holds  .90 

[15:19] {Threei}  not getting last hour right

[15:20] {RonS} hearing more Greek news...

[15:20] {Threei}  don't see any yet

[15:20] {RonS} guess he can afford the $60 mil...Saverin’s Facebook stake worth $2.1 billion filing shows

[15:22] {Threei}  well, that's if he can sell it at these prices

[15:22] {Threei}  which is far from given

[15:22] {Threei}  he might have to live on 1B only if it drops to $20...

[15:23] {Threei}  isn't it sad

[15:23] {RonS} fb looking to test 38 again...

[15:24] {RonS} L2 a zoo

[15:26] {RonS} goog smack

[15:27] {Threei}  if it loses 38, we can safely label it a failure as far as first day IPOs go

[15:27] {Threei}  considering all the hype and expectations...

[15:30] {RonS} heard fb may need re-name to Faceplant

[15:30] {Threei}  I am pretty sure 38 won't hold

[15:31] {Threei}  too bad we can't short it

[15:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .80 break

[15:37] {Threei}  If holds  .70 

[15:42] {Threei}  panic comes

[15:42] {Threei}  half out FAZ

[15:43] {Threei}  this close to close, gotta cut risk down

[15:43] {Threei}  stop to .78

[15:50] {Threei}  wow... a lot of selling at 38

[15:50] {Threei}  plenty og buyers too

[15:53] {Threei}  about to break

[15:55] {Threei}  wow... held

[15:56] {Threei}  (US) G8 meetings: UK Cameron reiterates will not support financial transaction tax put forth by President Hollande of France

[15:56] {Threei}  thank you Cameron

[15:56] {Threei}  one relatively sane person over there

[15:58] {RonS} good weekend to all...ciao

[15:58] {Threei}  thank you all

[15:58] {Threei}  have a great weekend

[16:03] {ese} cya all

[16:05] {Beau} good times this weekend to all

May 17 2012

Beautiful day with many nice wins ranging from scalps to 1:3. Even couple rinses couldn't spoil this day, one of those when patterns just work. Go over trades, enjoy finding the order in what many consider chaos.


Session Time: Thu May 17 00:00:00 2012
[08:08] {nemo} miss me?
[08:29] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 370K V 365KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.265M V 3.230ME
[08:53] {nemo} probably dead day
[08:57] {Threei}  unless fear reappears
[09:15] {Beau} good morning all
[09:15] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:16] {Threei}  Ron... the gem you missed yesterday:
[09:16] {Threei}  [15:59] {Threei} takes guts
[09:16] {Threei}  [16:01] {dino} or luck :D
[09:16] {Threei}  [16:01] {Threei} never hurts, lol
[09:16] {Threei}  [16:02] {Threei} but gotta have prepared mind
[09:16] {Threei}  [16:02] {Threei} or in nemo case, mind
[09:16] {Threei}  [16:02] {Threei} awww... Ron doesn't see it
[09:17] {dptl} gm
[09:17] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:17] {RonS} gm...lol...good one
[09:18] {Threei}  thought you'd enjoy it
[09:18] {Threei}  and, for the next month or so I do not open any boxes from nemo with ticking sound inside
[09:19] {Threei}  even though he takes pain to write "this is not a bomb" on the side
[09:23] {dino} gm
[09:23] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:23] {dino} distraction day for me.
[09:28] {Threei}  gotta waiot first minutes, no clear opening play
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .90 break hl
[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[09:31] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:33] {Threei}  no go
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: AIG  .70 break
[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[09:36] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:37] {Threei}  1:1, firdt poece out
[09:37] {Threei}  piece too
[09:37] {Threei}  1:2
[09:37] {Threei}  target hit
[09:37] {Threei}  out +.30
[09:38] {Threei}  1:4... darn overachiever
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .15 break
[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[09:40] {Threei}  let's make it hl
[09:40] {Threei}  SPY is a bit overstretched
[09:41] {Threei}  bounce is probably in cards now
[09:43] {Threei}  needless to say, invalidated
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .60 break
[09:43] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[09:44] {Threei}  half out
[09:44] {Threei}  stop .59
[09:45] {Threei}  was even nice enough to come back for pickup
[09:45] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:46] {Threei}  wow HLF
[09:46] {Threei}  dino stock
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break hl
[09:48] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[09:48] {Threei}  out FAZ
[09:49] {Threei}  no go IWM
[09:50] {Threei}  ah
[09:50] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar (EU) Renewed market chatter that major European countries might delay ESM ratification vote- Germany, France and Netherlands are mentioned
[09:51] {Threei} Long Setup:  GAS  .20 breal smaller shares
[09:51] {Threei}  GS'
[09:51] {Threei}  sorry
[09:52] {Threei}  grrr... got away?
[09:53] {Threei}  ne entry on pullback for now
[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .75 break hl
[09:55] {dino} watching gaps 12421, 2547, 1312
[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[09:56] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:57] {Threei}  1:1
[09:59] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:59] {Threei}  whoa
[09:59] {dino} here comes the capitulation
[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) MAY PHILADELPHIA FED: -5.8 V 10.0E
[10:00] {dino} 2547 filled
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) APR LEADING INDICATORS: -0.1% V +0.1%E
[10:00] {Threei}  was that a timely exit on TNA ot what
[10:03] {Threei}  notice GDX strength
[10:03] {Threei}  ignored this breakdown
[10:04] {Threei}  went up nicely with slightest sign of market bounce
[10:04] {Threei}  let's wait for pullback on it
[10:05] {Threei}  nice morning so far, can afford to wait for a solid play
[10:07] {dino} dhi l .50
[10:08] {dino} dks sm l .99
[10:12] {dino} itri sm l .50
[10:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .60 break hl
[10:15] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:15] {Threei}  GDX just won't give us a chance
[10:15] {Threei}  LVS target 1:2
[10:16] {Threei}  1:1
[10:16] {Threei}  1:2, out
[10:16] {Threei}  nice and easy
[10:16] {Threei}  two chances to enter, then never looked back
[10:17] {thomcbell} vad that was the best 15 minute candle on spy i have seen in a long while
[10:17] {thomcbell} with volume
[10:18] {Threei}  selling one you mean?
[10:18] {Threei}  oh, 15 min
[10:19] {Threei}  I don't routinely watch that time frame so didn't get it at once
[10:19] {dino} out dhi .67, +.17
[10:19] {dino} out dks .32, +.33
[10:19] {Threei}  nice
[10:19] {Threei}  dino, look HLF
[10:20] {dino} giving back some of yesterdays gain
[10:20] {thomcbell} setups are very fast Vad -
[10:21] {thomcbell} feel like the money is made when we look for spots for reversals and then quickly frame a quick trade
[10:21] {Threei}  those that worked today with exception of GS gave second cnaces for entry though
[10:21] {dino} itri stop -.10
[10:21] {Threei}  chances
[10:24] {dino} qcom sm l .75
[10:28] {dino} fosl sm l .80
[10:30] {Threei}  10:30(EU) IMF: ECB may need to pursue more unconventional measures, ECB has scope for more easing
[10:30] {_ristorates} gdx?
[10:30] {Threei}  watching
[10:31] {Threei}  want deeper pullback probably
[10:33] {RonS} siro blood
[10:35] {Threei}  HLF
[10:36] {dino} wdc sm l .05
[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .15 break hl
[10:37] {Threei}  If holds  41
[10:38] {dino} siro sm l .55
[10:40] {dino} lqdt blood
[10:41] {Threei}  half out .27
[10:42] {Threei}  stop to .14
[10:43] {dino} lqdt sm l .05
[10:43] {RonS} gdx .14 to .32  thanks 3i
[10:43] {Threei}  :)
[10:44] {Threei}  out in full
[10:46] {dino} lqdt stop -.30
[10:48] {RonS} surprised you took that dino since you were in the middle of a gap
[10:49] {RonS} reviewed this pig on earnings move...physical auctioneer trading a 45 p/e...r u kidding me?
[10:51] {dino} yeah, see that gap 55 area, may try then
[10:51] {dino} siro stop -.30
[10:52] {dino} dks sm l .01
[10:54] {thomcbell} nice cup and handle trying to form on 1 min gdx
[10:55] {thomcbell} at least a minute ago that was the case
[10:55] {Threei}  I was looking at it too
[10:55] {Threei}  wanted it to toghten the range
[10:55] {Threei}  tighten
[10:55] {Threei}  instead it broke the lower limit
[10:57] {scottie} sdf
[10:58] {Threei}  who are you calling sdf?
[10:58] {scottie} testing mirc
[10:58] {Threei}  works?
[10:58] {scottie} ok
[10:58] {Threei}  cool
[10:58] {Threei}  too bad you missed this morning though...
[10:59] {scottie} will be back shortly. bye everyone
[10:59] {Threei}  GDX .50 break remains a possibility
[10:59] {Threei}  take care scottie
[11:00] {Threei}  it's a kind of on again off again, depending on consolidation
[11:00] {Threei}  one little pullback please
[11:00] {Threei}  to .45
[11:00] {Threei}  then break
[11:01] {Threei}  not sure about this break...
[11:01] {Threei}  really want some consolidation first
[11:01] {Threei}  if you go for it, keep .39 stop
[11:01] {Threei}  I'd wait
[11:02] {Threei}  1:1 for impatient ones
[11:03] {RonS} kex kicked
[11:03] {nemo} looks good to 42 if it clears .80
[11:03] {nemo} watch tna for possible DB bounce
[11:05] {Threei}  ugh... now I regret not grabbing GDX :)
[11:06] {dino} lqdt sm l .00
[11:09] {dino} lqdt stopped again
[11:17] {dino} wow lqdt drops again
[11:18] {RonS} kex
[11:21] {nemo} IWM near LOD
[11:25] {nemo} spy looking like long setup and IWM too... not ready to call it, but we are getting hammers here at IWM DB support
[11:26] {nemo} there goes spy, see if IWM follows
[11:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .8 break hl
[11:35] {Threei}  If holds  .70  of course
[11:36] {nemo} nice, that is fib retrace on a breakout level, and a spy db on the day
[11:37] {Threei}  1:1
[11:45] {RonS} bloomberg saying moodys will downgrade spanish banks later today
[11:47] {RonS} mdvn dive
[11:48] {Threei}  done with TNA
[11:49] {Threei}  amazingly smooth day for such nervous environment
[11:50] {Threei}  - Nervous traders drove European equities lower overnight after press reports that Spanish bank Bankia has seen $1B in deposit withdrawals over the last week
[11:50] {Threei}  he'h
[11:50] {Threei}  I wonder who still keeps anything in those banks
[11:54] {RonS} dino, you here?
[11:57] {dino} sort of
[11:57] {dino} real estate issues, sold a foreclosure flip, and just had sub-division inquiry, so pulling maps, etc
[12:03] {dptl} got to go ,see ya tomorrow all
[12:03] {Threei}  take care dp
[12:05] {Threei}  no fresh news
[12:05] {Threei}  what a misery in the market eh
[12:05] {Threei}  selling just resumes at every chance
[12:12] {dino} 1312 filled
[12:12] {dino} next gaps 12421, 2495, 1289
[12:14] {RonS} hey Beau...
[12:15] {Beau} yes sir?
[12:15] {RonS} familiar with the McClellan?
[12:16] {Beau} no, don't recognize it
[12:16] {Beau} what where who?
[12:17] {RonS} http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McClellan_oscillator
[12:17] {Beau} oh.  will look
[12:18] {RonS} an extreme reading in this of -80 to -100 marks oversold conditions
[12:18] {RonS} we should hit -100 today
[12:19] {RonS} has a history of marking a short term low
[12:20] {Beau} think it is one of the studies in Laser when I get there.
[12:21] {Threei}  I don't thin Laer has it
[12:22] {Beau} didn't remember.
[12:22] {Threei}  no, looking at studies available right now
[12:23] {Beau} but thanks ron for heads up. need all the learning can get
[12:23] {RonS} http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24nymo
[12:24] {Threei}  one thing to have in mind though
[12:25] {Threei}  oscillators work nicely in ranging market
[12:25] {RonS} the other day when you asked if we were oversold...the tecnical answer was no becuse the McClellan was not there yet
[12:25] {Threei}  strong trends tend to throw them off
[12:26] {Threei}  be on a lookout for situation where oscillator says "oversold,"
[12:26] {Threei}  then price pauses for a while, or stages a small bounce,
[12:27] {Threei}  then all of a sudden you see that even though there was no significant recover if at all, oscillator moves away from oversold sondition again
[12:27] {Threei}  condition
[12:27] {Threei}  and price breaks down and continues down
[12:27] {Threei}  especially stochastic is prone to that
[12:28] {Threei}  works like charm in a range, very treacherous in trend
[12:28] {RonS} yep...some know how to check this intraday to guard against just what you are talking about
[12:30] {RonS} shocking...Obama crushes Romney in Ivy League donations
[12:31] {Threei}  I am all for education... but sheesh... must it be so left-leaning?
[12:31] {Beau} is tna c&h
[12:31] {Threei}  price yes
[12:31] {Threei}  volume is not exactly right
[12:32] {dino} everyones a democrat until they have to pay taxes
[12:32] {Threei}  sometimes I think if I walk into any campus dressed as Karl Marx, all fine cheeses and best women will be broguht to my feet
[12:39] {thomcbell} long setup invn 10.03 break if holding 9.95
[12:48] {thomcbell} invn 1:1 kind of
[12:48] {thomcbell} coudlnt really buy it and good luck selling it at 10.13
[12:49] {dino} i'm in at .05
[12:58] {dino} out flat
[13:03] {dino} becn l .76
[13:03] {Threei}  what will, I, Mark Zuckerberg, do with the $18 billion I�m expected to earn from Facebook�s IPO? Well, I�m considering buying Greece, but that would still leave me with $18 billion.
[13:03] {Threei}  lol
[13:04] {Threei}  although as far as market-related jokes go, nemo's "strapless bra" is a winner of this month
[13:05] {Beau} ?
[13:06] {Threei}  [09:07] {nemo} "The Markets are currently like a strapless bra.1/2 folks wondering what's holding it up; other 1/2 waiting for it to drop so that they can grab the oppty with both hands"
[13:06] {dino} i still like the merkel occupation joke
[13:06] {Threei}  yup, winner too
[13:07] {Beau} that was a good one nemo  your cup runeth over.
[13:07] {RonS} he stole it from bunny...
[13:11] {RonS} seems like energy stocks are starting to catch a bid...play the ERX?
[13:11] {Threei}  38 break
[13:11] {Threei}  begs to be bought
[13:15] {RonS} wow look at cpno chart...and it pays 8%!
[13:22] {Threei}  56% Favor Legalizing, Regulating Marijuana
[13:37] {Threei}  be back in 30 min guys
[13:37] {Threei}  (GR) Syriza Party leader Tsipras: Prepared to stop debt payments if Europe cuts financing- Comments that Greece should remain as part of the EMU; EMU faces breakup if Greece does fail
[13:38] {Threei}  they are playing chicken
[13:38] {Threei}  who blinks first, lol
[13:48] {RonS} bks blood
[13:50] {thomcbell} sorry guys - i stopped updating on the invn - but that was a great one - hope someone did it
[13:50] {thomcbell} i am out of it now
[14:04] {Threei}  back
[14:04] {dino} `nice one tbell, unfortunately i cut it flat
[14:08] {dino} back in 45
[14:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .15 break
[14:09] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[14:10] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .20 break
[14:13] {Threei}  offer half at .23 - .24
[14:14] {Threei}  1/4 at .28 - .29
[14:14] {Threei}  and let's try for .35 - .40 on the last piece
[14:14] {Threei}  stop to .13
[14:21] {Threei}  scalpers win
[14:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .30 break
[14:39] {Threei}  SPY loses 131.50, all hell breaks loose
[14:39] {Threei}  (again)
[14:40] {Threei}  (what remained of unbroken loose hell)
[14:40] {Threei}  stop under .20
[14:50] {Threei}  come on SPY
[15:01] {Threei}  nope
[15:04] {RonS} gotta be an old one...[12:52:38 PM] RayFromMA (ES,Crude,Euro,Gold): What do you call a Chinese man with a video camera? Phil Ming
[15:04] {RonS} nuts
[15:04] {Threei}  hmmm... color me stupid
[15:05] {dino} lol
[15:05] {RonS} BN reporting $FB goes out at $38 a share. That's 26x sales, 107x P/E
[15:07] {Beau} how do you spell rinse?
[15:07] {Threei}  "hate it"
[15:08] {Threei}  argh
[15:10] {Threei}  sudden move with no news
[15:10] {Threei}  just one of those cases
[15:11] {Threei}  sin to complain today, but still, it's offensive
[15:19] {dino} since may 1st, markets neg. 10 of 12 tading days, dji-6%, ndx -8.5%, s/p -7.5%
[15:20] {dino} it will be 11/13 if close neg today, which is likely
[15:26] {Threei} Short Setup: FACX  .40 break
[15:26] {Threei}  FCX
[15:26] {Threei}  If holds  50
[15:33] {Threei}  half out .32
[15:34] {Threei}  not exactly 1:1 yet but market becomes whippy, want to secure profit
[15:36] {Threei}  Saverin says he is going to pay taxes
[15:36] {Threei}  good for him
[15:37] {Threei}  1.4 more out
[15:37] {Threei}  1/4
[15:39] {Threei}  beau... does this one takes the sting out?
[15:40] {dino} markets getting crushed (again)
[15:40] {Threei}  too many pundits try to call a bottom
[15:41] {dino} just lost another half percent
[15:44] {Threei}  out in full
[15:44] {Threei}  .13
[15:44] {Threei}  +.26, nice weay to finish very nice day
[15:48] {Threei}  oh the irony
[15:49] {Threei}  guy who spoke to me a few months ago saying he wanted Taoist Trader and 11 Trades but complained about high cost, just emailed asking advice,
[15:49] {dino} revenge is dish best served cold
[15:49] {Threei}  he is down 15K attempting to buy the bottom of this slide and hold it
[15:49] {Threei}  was that cost really THAT high to learn NOT to do that??
[15:49] {dino} my advice to him, drink heavily
[15:50] {Threei}  I don't know how people compute these things
[15:50] {Threei}  250 course pays for itself in one good trade, or one avoided loss
[15:51] {Threei}  yet they take those losses with less hesitation than paying for education
[15:51] {Threei}  also dino... that advice of yours is universal, why tie it to this particular situation (signed: nemo)
[15:52] {Threei}  want to make a mental note about continued GDX strength
[15:53] {dino} lol
[15:54] {dino} gold silver both strong
[15:55] {Threei}  but copper iss till miserable
[15:55] {Threei}  so is steel
[15:55] {Threei}  which tells us a lot
[15:56] {Threei}  economic slowdown, while PMs are seen as hedge
[15:56] {dino} cooper not too bad, jjc -.06
[15:56] {Threei}  yeah but still, new low
[15:56] {dino} ok
[15:57] {Threei}  FCX daily chart is right from nightmare
[15:57] {Threei}  so is X's
[15:57] {dino} heres what my idiotic brain is reading. deflation from greek default, then the eu opens the printing presses to keep others from defaulting (inflation)
[15:58] {dino} and the usa fed steps in w/a qe3
[15:58] {Threei}  I really hope this is not what happens but afraid it is
[15:58] {dino} big problem for fed/obama is the fed has already backstopped tens of billions of eu debt a few months ago
[15:59] {Threei}  with those swap lines?
[15:59] {Threei}  around Dec-Jan
[15:59] {dino} yes, fed took eoros
[15:59] {Threei}  sigh
[15:59] {Threei}  oh well...
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all, very nice day
[15:59] {dino} so fed must also inflate to offset euro loses
[15:59] {Threei}  especially considering the widespread misery
[15:59] {dino} race to the bottom
[16:00] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[16:00] {dino} gn all

May 16 2012

One of frustrating days - got perfect read on the direction and main levels and couldn't utilize it. Market jumped back and forth from one headline to another rinsing our entries. Good morning, disastrous midday and good finish with two wins taking the sting out of the cascade of rinses. Oh well.

Session Time: Wed May 16 00:00:00 2012

[08:30] {nemo} what was the news

[08:30] {Threei}  *(US) APR HOUSING STARTS: 717K V 685KE; BUILDING PERMITS: 715K V 730KE

[09:07] {nemo} "The Markets are currently like a strapless bra.1/2 folks wondering what's holding it up; other 1/2 waiting for it to drop so that they can grab the oppty with both hands"

[09:07] {Threei}  rofl

[09:07] {Threei}  good one

[09:14] {Threei}  (US) APR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 1.1% V 0.6%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 79.2% V 79.0%E

[09:15] {Threei}  (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Europe should increasingly become a political union - crisis themes speech

[09:16] {ese} morning.......got a few minutes to pop in and say hi.......Ottawa crew out of here tomorrow morning...will be home free

[09:16] {scottie} good morning

[09:16] {Threei}  ese, scottie :)

[09:16] {ese} Aye laddie......

[09:17] {ese} mornin vad

[09:17] {ese} hows the week goin.......everyone now filthy stinking rich

[09:18] {Threei}  not bad, not stellar

[09:18] {ese} Greece on the precipice eh........all you can say is wow......

[09:18] {Threei}  yeah... new election

[09:19] {Threei}  which is likely to produce even less EU-friendly result

[09:19] {Threei}  not very surprising though, it was moving this direction for a good while already

[09:19] {ese} they only have a couple of months then there broke.......if I was the rest of the EU i'd cut em off....let em go broke

[09:20] {Threei}  that's what is going to happen eventually

[09:20] {Threei}  EU just foesn't want to face the reality

[09:22] {ese} all kinds of things to happen then...curency devaluation......won't be able to afford anything or   "travel"......they be forced to say there all of them......thats a good thing.

[09:22] {ese} stay

[09:23] {dptl} gm

[09:23] {Threei}  dp :)

[09:23] {ese} dp

[09:24] {dino} gm

[09:24] {Threei}  dino :)

[09:24] {RonS} gm

[09:25] {ese} speaking of curency devaluation.....went to buy my faorite Reeces pieces chocolate bar the other day and it cost $.25 more....i was short the .25....really ticked me off

[09:25] {Beau} good morning all

[09:25] {dino} lol ese

[09:25] {ese} anybody on this board ever been on Reeces peices withdrawl before........damn it's nasty

[09:26] {Threei}  beau :)

[09:26] {ese} beau

[09:26] {ese} dino

[09:26] {ese} ron

[09:26] {RonS} ese

[09:26] {Threei}  ron :)

[09:28] {Beau} ese shift to bourbon, better for you.

[09:28] {ese} well......you all carry on.......i have a show to put on with my Ottawa crew here at 11:00am and we got a sound check and setup here in an hour......catch ya later

[09:28] {Threei}  have fun ese

[09:28] {dino} cya

[09:28] {ese} bourbon Reeces peices...........????????.......am gonna reccommend that to the company

[09:29] {ese} cya

[09:29] {Threei}  feels to me like technical bounce

[09:29] {Threei}  selling is likely to take over at some point

[09:29] {Threei}  let's see if we can spot it

[09:29] {Threei}  activity is likely to be spread over the day more evenly

[09:30] {Threei}  X is a long candidate identified yesterday

[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .15 break hl

[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  24 

[09:33] {dino} met l .25

[09:33] {Threei}  no go

[09:36] {dino}  met stop -.15

[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break hl

[09:38] {thomcbell} gm long setup Vad?

[09:38] {Threei}  change to .95 break

[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .05 

[09:38] {cipher} tna l .17

[09:39] {Threei}  GM... if pulls back to 22 for double bottom

[09:39] {Threei}  FCX 1:1

[09:40] {scottie} FCX +.10 ty Vad

[09:41] {Threei}  yw

[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .50 break

[09:42] {Threei}  If holds  .40 

[09:44] {dino} met l .99

[09:44] {Threei}  (GE) German Chancellor Merkel: To make statement at 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT); No topic presented

[09:44] {Threei}  hmmm

[09:44] {Threei}  sounds ominous

[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .40 break

[09:45] {Threei}  If holds  .30 

[09:45] {cipher} out tna -.18

[09:45] {dino} the occupation has begun, merkel

[09:45] {Threei}  lol

[09:45] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .50 break

[09:45] {Threei}  so, want to partial there

[09:46] {Threei}  and try to ride the breakout

[09:46] {Threei}  half out

[09:46] {Threei}  stop to .38

[09:47] {Threei}  1/4 more out .58

[09:47] {Threei}  stop to .49

[09:47] {dino} CHKpD crushed

[09:47] {Threei}  out in full

[09:47] {Threei}  .65

[09:48] {Threei}  clean, fast, executable, and laid out in advance

[09:48] {Threei}  can they all be like this?

[09:48] {scottie} +.10 only, patience.. ty Vad

[09:48] {Threei}  yw...

[09:48] {Threei}  this one was really worth more

[09:48] {scottie} I can see that

[09:48] {Threei}  look, 1:4

[09:48] {dino} chkpd smr l .53

[09:50] {Threei}  X rinse

[09:52] {dino} out met .19, +.20

[09:52] {Threei}  wtg

[09:52] {dino} wdc sm l .74

[09:54] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break

[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .60 

[09:55] {dino} stop chkpd -.33

[09:56] {nemo} markets moving higher

[09:57] {Threei}  so either FCX invalodates,

[09:57] {Threei}  or stays weak and confirms the setup

[09:57] {Threei}  Invalidated  

[09:57] {Threei}  volume dries up though...

[09:57] {Threei}  maybe reconfigure it for .60 break

[09:58] {Threei}  half lot

[09:58] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break

[09:58] {Threei}  If holds  .65 

[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) Q1 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES: 7.4% V 7.58% PRIOR; MBA MORTGAGE FORECLOSURES: 4.39% V 4.38% PRIOR

[10:03] {nemo} cree

[10:05] {RonS} got a walmart contract

[10:05] {RonS} exclusive outdoor lighting supplier

[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break

[10:08] {Threei}  If holds  .80 

[10:10] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .10 break

[10:10] {Threei}  If holds  .20 

[10:14] {Threei}  change SLW to .20 break

[10:14] {Threei}  if holds .25

[10:15] {Threei}  invalidated

[10:15] {Threei}  no go FCX

[10:16] {Threei}  no top yet

[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .40 break

[10:23] {Threei}  hl

[10:23] {Threei}  If holds  .30 

[10:26] {scottie} lvs valid?

[10:27] {Threei}  yes

[10:27] {Threei}  not anymore

[10:27] {Threei}  looking if worth a cnage to .30

[10:27] {Threei}  change

[10:29] {Threei}  unclear everywheree

[10:30] {Threei}  market wait to hear what frau Merkel got to say?

[10:30] {nemo} Op Ex week too

[10:30] {dptl} got to leave early again....see ya tomorrow all

[10:30] {Threei}  take care dp

[10:31] {Threei}  today's volume is noticeably lower than yesterday

[10:32] {Threei}  sheeeesh

[10:32] {Threei}  (DE) Germany Chancellor Merkel said to be planning to name Altmaier as new enrivonmental minister following the speculated resignation of Roettgen - financial press

[10:32] {Threei}  whotf cares

[10:34] {Threei}  frikin LVS

[10:45] {dino} met l .00

[10:51] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .40 break

[10:51] {Threei}  If holds  .50 

[10:51] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .60 break

[10:51] {Threei}  ugh, late

[10:52] {Threei}  CAT 1:1

[10:52] {scottie} couldn't short cat

[10:53] {Threei}  ugh

[10:53] {dino} met stopped

[10:53] {Threei}  available here

[10:53] {Threei}  1:2, out

[10:54] {RonS} wow scottie...who you w/?

[10:54] {scottie} ?

[10:54] {RonS} broker

[10:54] {scottie} Disnat

[10:55] {scottie} I use DDExtra

[10:56] {Threei}  LVS 1:1

[10:56] {Threei}  was kind enough to come back for us

[10:56] {Threei}  1:2, out

[10:56] {Threei}  whew

[10:56] {Threei}  finally nailed that elusive reversal

[10:58] {Threei}  wow, too soon on CAT exit

[11:05] {Threei}  (GR) Germany BdB banking association chief: Greece may be better off dealing with debt and structural issues outside the euro- It is right to think about alternatives and particularly whether Greece would not be better able to solve its problems using its own currency.

[11:06] {Threei}  (EU) ECB said to have halted monetary policy operations to certain Greece banks

[11:06] {dino} cutting them off?

[11:06] {Threei}  at least testing I guess

[11:08] {RonS} ...why no bank run yet? who would be dumb enough to have any euros in a Greek bank?

[11:08] {Threei}  1B left Greek banks last week

[11:08] {RonS} ya, but i mean a real run...

[11:09] {RonS} followed up by riots and water cannons, so nemo will be happy

[11:12] {Threei}  he needs to be in the middle of it, pillaging... then he will be happy

[11:12] {RonS} lol...see a ko short setting up?

[11:14] {Threei}  could be a double bottom just as well...

[11:14] {Threei}  .10 break would be a long

[11:14] {Threei}  higher second bottom

[11:15] {Threei}  76 break is kind of short signal but will depend on SPY very much

[11:16] {Threei}  my inclination would be to go for long and skip the short

[11:18] {Threei}  wow

[11:18] {Threei}  greece headline changes by minute

[11:19] {Threei}  now it's EU still considers

[11:19] {Threei}  market feels like as a frog in a football

[11:27] {RonS} nbg short?

[11:27] {RonS} :D

[11:27] {Threei}  yikes

[11:27] {Threei}  lol

[11:27] {Threei}  made me look

[11:30] {RonS} call pulp movement

[11:32] {dino} hig l .76

[11:34] {dino} qcom l .70

[11:36] {nemo} aem looks weak

[11:38] {nemo} anf buyer .95

[11:39] {Threei}  GR) Hearing rumor that Greece could be limiting withdrawls from depositors at some banks to �50 - CNBC's Simon Hobbs

[11:39] {Threei}  but of course

[11:40] {Threei}  saw it all in Ukraine in 1990s

[11:40] {Threei}  so not pretty

[11:42] {dino} qcom stop -.20

[11:42] {RonS} got greeked...

[11:42] {RonS} took -.10 here

[11:44] {dino} things are whippy

[11:48] {dino} met l .45 stop .39

[11:49] {Threei}  Greece events speed up... I won't be too surprised if they can't hold it together to the next election

[11:49] {Threei}  KO 1:1

[11:50] {Threei}  kool beans

[11:51] {Threei}  1:2, out

[11:51] {Threei}  thanks Ron

[11:51] {RonS} np

[11:52] {Threei}  MET works... good entry dino

[11:53] {Threei}  not my kind, I'd rather wait for .40 breakdown to short... your read was right

[11:55] {RonS} dino look crk last 2 days

[11:56] {RonS} 29% float short...

[11:57] {dino} ty

[11:58] {thomcbell} gdx big up move 

[11:59] {dino} qcom rinsed

[11:59] {dino} crk, dk, oils just get crushed lately

[12:02] {RonS} wow...crk in biz since 1919...how do they not go bk or get bought?

[12:03] {Threei}  twitter is relentless

[12:03] {Threei}  Greek banks not distributing money anymore, instead dispensing olives and olive oil

[12:03] {RonS} lol...it was a currency

[12:03] {Threei}  This is how the rest of Europe gets the drunken dinner guest to leave, they close the bar.

[12:03] {dino} dri spike

[12:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .75 breeak hl

[12:11] {Threei}  stop under .65

[12:13] {dino} dri sm s .50

[12:13] {Threei}  nah

[12:14] {dino} bstop is.67

[12:14] {dino} stopped

[12:18] {Threei}  does JCP have any bounce in it or it's damaged goods...

[12:18] {Threei} Short Setup: JCP  .70 break hl

[12:19] {Threei}  aggressive for .60

[12:19] {Threei}  .82 stop

[12:19] {Threei}  not available here

[12:21] {Threei}  good thing, turns out

[12:25] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break

[12:25] {Threei}  play for SPY .50 breakdown

[12:25] {Threei}  which should launch the panic wave and take it to red today

[12:27] {Threei}  stop under .60, target .90

[12:29] {dino} dri, wtf!

[12:29] {Threei}  JCP... worked on second break

[12:29] {Threei}  still unavailable though, lol

[12:31] {Threei}  another headline goosed the nmarket:

[12:31] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Bullard: Fed remains on a policy hold because policy is already ultra-easy- - Operation Twist will continue to alter the balance sheet for some time to come despite its conclusion at the end of June. - Economy has been outperforming expectations since last autumn.

[12:47] {RonS} de sm l .60

[12:47] {Threei}  wow JCP

[12:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .40 break

[12:50] {Threei}  If holds  .30  for day traders .35 for scalpers

[12:50] {Threei}  target .65

[12:54] {Threei}  stop to .34 for day traders too

[12:55] {Threei}  SPY again looks breakdownish

[12:55] {Threei}  better tighten the stop

[12:55] {scottie} .

[12:55] {Threei}  crap, TZA got away

[12:58] {Threei}  out

[13:00] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .30 break

[13:00] {Threei}  If holds  .40 

[13:03] {Threei}  what the deuce... not reading it right in the afternoon at all

[13:07] {RonS} out de -.10 no market help

[13:15] {_dyndul} is the CAT still valid as it stayed in the 40 cent range, correct?

[13:16] {dino} i'm off today too 3i

[13:16] {Threei}  looks like, but I'd really like to see SPY finally losing .50 for this short to work

[13:16] {Threei}  if SPY holds this level, it will eventually bounce, killing the short trades

[13:17] {Threei}  I know why dino... headlines copming one after another

[13:17] {Threei}  ruining technical read

[13:17] {_dyndul} like right now?

[13:18] {Threei}  yeah

[13:19] {Threei}  and look:

[13:19] {Threei}  13:19(GR) Greek Bank Support Fund Chief: To allocate �18B in bridge recapitalization funding to four largest Greek banks by next week

[13:19] {Threei}  which satisfies one of urgent demands by ECB

[13:20] {Threei}  and market reverses up in hope this thing may still get duct-taped

[13:20] {Threei}  not much of course, but illustrates the point of market beeing at mercy of news today

[13:22] {RonS} dammmit...was tracking wlk and it jumped 60 cents

[13:23] {RonS} no, .90

[13:23] {RonS} ...this is reminding me of the Hank Paulson days...

[13:24] {RonS} amazing to me that some short never shot that bastard

[13:24] {Threei}  lol

[13:35] {Threei}  as foretold... .50 break took SPY into red

[13:36] {Threei}  most offensive to me is that seeing it coming I haven't found the way to profit from it

[13:36] {Threei}  hate when this happens

[13:36] {dino} feels like we go for 11 of last 12 days down

[13:36] {Threei}  yes... and all kinds of pndits scream how oversold we are

[13:37] {Threei}  littlw do they know... we can get much oversolder

[13:38] {Threei}  like I said a few days ago, we are in a very unusual market where news is not discounted, and developments keep everyone genuinely confused

[13:38] {Threei}  New study shows high-fructose corn syrup can make you both fat and stupid

[13:38] {Threei}  hmmmm

06[13:39] * Threei spits out a gallon of corn syrup he drunk over last 6 minutes

[13:41] {Threei}  see how CAT short finally worked?

[13:41] {Threei}  not even speaking of TZA and FAZ longs... all of them were tied into SPY break of support

[13:42] {_dyndul} everything started dropping when SPY broke

[13:42] {Threei}  yup, that .50 support was a key level

[13:43] {Threei}  12:25] {Threei} play for SPY .50 breakdown

[13:43] {Threei}  [12:25] {Threei} which should launch the panic wave and take it to red today

[13:43] {Threei}  can't believe I had it so clearly and haven't utilized it

[13:44] {Threei}  I'll be back in 15 min

[13:49] {RonS} dino, itri

[13:53] {dino} news?

[13:53] {RonS} none...unless greece has banned water...

[13:54] {dino} lol

[13:54] {dino} would imagine they are drinking heavily over there

[13:54] {RonS} dicey imo w/ low vol and 40 mil outstanding...buyers strike could get it real ugly

[13:56] {dino} itri sm l .86

[13:59] {Threei}  back

[13:59] {Threei}  wtf

[14:00] {Threei}  FOMC minutes

[14:00] {dino} out itri .16, +.30 ty ron

[14:01] {Threei}  (GR) Latest Greece political poll opinion results estimates Syriza party with 22% support; Pasok party at 14%; New Democrats (ND) at 19.5%

[14:01] {Threei}  that confirms that next election will be evenmore EU-unfriendly

[14:02] {Threei}  the pnly thing that could prop the market is from FOMC minutes:

[14:02] {Threei}  The April FOMC decision held rates unchanged and reiterates the low rate pledge through late 2014

[14:02] {Threei}  see what I mean by frog in a footbal market?

[14:07] {nemo} just leave bunny out of it

[14:09] {Threei}  if you insist

[14:10] {RonS} wow qcom

[14:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .55 break

[14:14] {Threei}  If holds  .50 

[14:14] {Threei}  very tight stop,

[14:14] {Threei}  no go

[14:19] {Threei}  another case of rinse

[14:19] {Threei}  this is my fate today it seems

[15:01] {dino} well, we filled 1325 gap

[15:01] {dino} next 12421, 2547, 1312

[15:05] {RonS} seems like a lot of pain for essentially a flat day...

[15:06] {Threei}  true

[15:11] {Threei}  paun is coming from the fact that opening gave hope to bulls... and then that hope was erased

[15:17] {RonS} hlf spike

[15:18] {RonS} nus trying to follow

[15:20] {RonS} kaboom

[15:21] {dino} hlf sm s .30

[15:23] {dino} cov .60, +.70 ty ron

[15:23] {Threei}  nice

[15:25] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .10 break

[15:25] {Threei}  If holds  21 

[15:26] {dino} nus sm s .75

[15:28] {Threei}  this entry is aimed at 133 SPY break

[15:28] {Threei}  if we get it, it should work for about 15 cents at least

[15:28] {Threei}  maybe more

[15:28] {dino} cov nus .45, +.30

[15:28] {Threei}  ok

[15:28] {Threei}  lwet's go TZA

[15:29] {dino} thx again ron for heads up. gets me back to just about even

[15:29] {Threei}  great job

[15:31] {dino} hlf, nus spike again

[15:31] {dino} mlm blood

[15:31] {RonS} mlm

[15:31] {Threei}  offering half .19

[15:32] {dino} vmc drop

[15:32] {Threei}  half out

[15:33] {Threei}  stop to .09

[15:33] {nemo} einhorn just shit on mlm hehehehehe

[15:35] {Threei}  scalpers win

[15:35] {RonS} mlm halt circuit...people saying if only the market got as excited about his longs

[15:36] {Threei}  Martin Marietta Materials Inc Halted: Einhorn makes cautious comments at Ira Sohn conf- Einhorn: Recent earnings have benefited from stimulus that is winding down

[15:36] {Threei}  heh

[15:37] {Threei}  problem with all stimuluses...

[15:37] {Threei}  they end!

[15:37] {Threei}  and you are left with more debt

[15:38] {RonS} The term "master of the universe" is overused, but Einhorn just made $300M+ of value disappear in seconds

[15:39] {RonS} new term...mlm got Einhorn'd...

[15:40] {Threei}  lol

[15:40] {Threei}  cramerized is well-known one

[15:46] {Threei}  new breakdown is coming it seems

[15:46] {Threei}  if you are up to try it,

[15:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .90 break

[15:47] {Threei}  If holds  .85 

[15:48] {Threei}  offer half .97 - .98

[15:48] {Threei}  and let's try for 26 break on another half

[15:51] {Threei}  come on FAZ

[15:51] {Threei}  use these last minutes to, umm... how do you spell it

[15:51] {Threei}  iksplode

[15:51] {dino} dks drop

[15:51] {Threei}  now... that's spelling I am proud of

[15:51] {dino} sm l .00

[15:52] {Threei}  offer 1/4 more .04

[15:52] {dino} out .53, 

[15:52] {dino} +.53

[15:52] {Threei}  wtg

[15:52] {Threei}  nice finish

[15:52] {dino} some crazy moves last hour

[15:52] {Threei}  ok

[15:52] {Threei}  last piece, offer .09

[15:53] {RonS} lol...David Einhorn is short the shares of $DKS Dicks sporting goods.

[15:53] {dino} wow got out way early

[15:54] {Threei}  stop .89 for the last 1/4

[15:56] {RonS} lol...is Einhorn a Mayan?

[15:57] {Threei}  lol

[15:57] {Threei}  yesss

[15:57] {Threei}  out .09

[15:57] {RonS} gj

[15:57] {Threei}  whew... happy to end this day with these two wins

[15:58] {Threei}  day when you have the right read and have difficulties profiting from it...

[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening

[15:59] {dino} thx all, appreciate the ideas

[15:59] {Threei}  see you tomorrow

[15:59] {Threei}  you did outstanding job dino

[15:59] {Threei}  digging out of the morning hole

[15:59] {Threei}  takes guts

[16:01] {dino} or luck :D

[16:01] {Threei}  never hurts, lol

[16:02] {Threei}  but gotta have prepared mind

[16:02] {dino} gn all

May 15 2012

Nicely profitable day which took us through the roller-coaster. Started with 3 wins out of 4 trades, then took one more stop... then targeted two trades (FAZ long and CAT short) - FAZ triggered and was stopped out by idiotic Greece headline which meant exactly nothing but impressed some quick readers, and CAT trade got invalidated. In a few minutes fog dissolved, and both of them proceeded to their original targets and beyond. We had to practically start the day anew - which we did very well, with two identical TNA trades (deja vu type, same setup, same stop, same target, both win) and a few more nicely working ones with just one stop. So... profit AND not boring, LOL.


Session Time: Tue May 15 00:00:00 2012
[09:02] {Threei}  (GR) Independent Greeks Party Leader Kammenos: There is no deal on coalition govt, new elections are likely to take place (as expected)
[09:02] {Threei}  **NOTE: Timeframe for new elections expected to be in mid-June. Independent Greeks are an anti-bailout party.
[09:05] {scottie} gm
[09:07] {Threei}  morning scottie
[09:08] {RonS} gm...eur getting hit
[09:09] {Threei}  as it well should... hi Ron
[09:09] {Threei}  negotiations with president to fom government aree over
[09:09] {Threei}  no can do
[09:11] {RonS} unreal...heard they are actually talking about a non-politician interim government
[09:11] {RonS} didn't greece have some military coups post-wwII?
[09:11] {Threei}  yeah, technocratic government was in discussion yesterday but no one believes it's anything but biding time till new election
[09:12] {Threei}  which should take place mi-June
[09:12] {dptl} gm
[09:12] {Threei}  and is likely to produce even less EU-friendly outcome
[09:12] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:13] {Threei}  in interesting turn of events, EU pfficials started talking about relaxing demands for Greece
[09:14] {RonS} Spanish yields spike to above 6.3% and Italian yields are now north of 5.8%
[09:15] {RonS} darn it and i was hoping for a spike open to short into...
[09:15] {Threei}  yeah... clear where it's all going
[09:17] {RonS} really like how coty is playing avp...
[09:23] {Threei}  EU carries out first air strikes against pirates on Somali mainland; no casualties reported
[09:23] {Threei}  what kind of strikes is that
[09:27] {Threei}  FCX begs to be a first short
[09:27] {RonS} tapped my inner nemo...bitch slap?  sorry janitor
[09:27] {Threei}  lol
[09:27] {Threei}  sleeps in...
[09:27] {Threei}  so are 5 more
[09:28] {Threei}  .20 break half lot if stays under .30
[09:29] {Threei}  .30 now
[09:29] {Threei}  if stays under .40
[09:30] {RonS} Greece will pay 400+ million to bond holdouts
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break hl
[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:32] {Threei}  .25 support from last dip
[09:32] {Threei}  needs to lose that to die
[09:33] {Threei}  no go
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:38] {Threei}  trail to .86
[09:38] {Threei}  1:1
[09:39] {Threei}  to .81
[09:39] {Threei}  out in full
[09:39] {Threei}  .61
[09:40] {scottie} +.18, thanks Vad
[09:40] {Threei}  :)
[09:43] {dino} gj
[09:43] {Threei}  ty
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .10 break
[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  41
[09:44] {Threei}  frikin FCX
[09:45] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .20 break hl
[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:46] {Threei}  change to .10 break
[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .85 break
[09:47] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[09:48] {Threei}  FCX target .25
[09:48] {Threei}  GDX .95
[09:49] {Threei}  out GDX
[09:49] {Threei}  half out FCX
[09:49] {Threei}  stop to .09
[09:50] {Threei}  treating most bounces as scalps, shorts will be fpr bigger moves
[09:51] {Threei}  out FCX in full
[09:51] {Threei}  that's 3 put of 4
[09:51] {dino} gj
[09:51] {Threei}  gotta stay flat at 10, some numbers are coming
[09:51] {Threei}  ty
[09:52] {Threei}  underestimated GDX a bit
[09:52] {Threei}  entry was absolutely perfect, look at 1 min
[09:58] {Threei}  both look good for another entry, just hate to do it right before the numbers
[09:58] {Threei}  will sit it out
[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) MAY NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 29 V 26E
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .70 break
[10:02] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[10:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break hl
[10:03] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:03] {Threei}  Invalidated  TNA
[10:04] {Threei}  SLW no go
[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .60 break hl
[10:10] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[10:10] {Threei}  trarget .90
[10:11] {Threei}  change to "if holds .50"
[10:12] {Threei}  no
[10:12] {Threei}  backing off
[10:12] {Threei}  no pattern
[10:15] {dino} soryr late post, dhi l .00
[10:20] {dino} dhi to .15
[10:20] {Threei}  rinses...
[10:20] {Threei}  me no likely
[10:24] {dino} out +.15 dhi
[10:24] {RonS} nailed it...
[10:30] {Threei}  grrr TNA
[10:33] {dptl} got to go...unfortunatly :) see ya tomorrow all, have a good one
[10:33] {Threei}  take care dp
[10:36] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .90 break hl
[10:37] {Threei}  If holds  UNDER  .05
[10:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .50 break
[10:39] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:39] {Threei}  Invalidated  CAT
[10:40] {Threei}  FAZ target 1:2
[10:42] {Threei}  (GR) Greece confirms earlier reports that it will pay the May 15 bond
[10:42] {Threei}  and that kills our TZA tarde? sheesh
[10:43] {scottie} That's it for me see you tomorrow
[10:44] {Threei}  too soon
[10:44] {Threei}  long day ahead
[10:50] {Threei}  seems they work if we take the trade on second trigger
[10:50] {Threei}  look at CAT
[10:50] {Threei}  invalidated, then triggered again and worked
[10:50] {Threei}  and now FAZ
[11:03] {Threei}  grrr on both
[11:03] {Threei}  the timing of that idiotic headline was the worst possible
[11:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  51 break hl
[11:16] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:19] {Threei}  1:1
[11:19] {dino} shw drop
[11:20] {Threei}  (EU) IMF's Lagarde: we have to be technically prepared for anything; Greece needs to stay on its committed path- Believe that the ECB has room to move on lowering interest rates. - Would be difficult to measure the impacts from a Greece exit from the EMU
[11:21] {Threei}  JPMorgan Chase and Co DOJ also reportedly investigating the recent trading loss; unclear whether there any legal violations - financial press- Note: In the past week many various Govt agencies have begun to investigate the trade loss; including the SEC and Federal Reserve
[11:21] {dino} the will be masively prining euros soon
[11:22] {Threei}  with Germany fully isolated now, it becomes a strong possibility
[11:22] {Threei}  1:2, out
[11:22] {dino} qe(u)2 coming
[11:23] {Threei}  race to the bottom
[11:23] {Threei}  who sinks their currency faster
[11:23] {dino} the elections have gone for the salvation thru inflation route
[11:23] {Threei}  yup
[11:23] {Threei}  populist vote is usually for giveusmore solutions
[11:23] {dino} and they are going to get it...
[11:28] {_ristorates} where's the inflation?
[11:28] {Threei}  so... normally more printing = market goes up
[11:28] {Threei}  but this is not a normal case,
[11:28] {Threei}  because Euro printing sends USD up
[11:28] {Threei}  thus USD-denominated assets should drop
[11:28] {Threei}  so, we have a strong case for Fed to launch their own press
[11:28] {dino} did not happen that way in dec/Jan
[11:29] {dino} agree there, fed will join
[11:29] {_ristorates} crb getting crushed
[11:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  51 break hl
[11:30] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:30] {Threei}  deja vu
[11:31] {Threei}  1:1
[11:31] {dino} becn l .00
06[11:31] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a alarm clock
06[11:32] * nemo slaps Threei around with my medical appointment calendar
06[11:32] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a bottle of memory pills
[11:33] {Threei}  1:2, out
06[11:33] * nemo drinks Vad's vodka
[11:33] {Threei}  total deja vu
[11:33] {nemo} hope you took tna or upro
[11:33] {Threei}  two identical trades side by side
[11:33] {Threei}  twice
[11:33] {nemo} just brought it up, prefect set up
[11:33] {Threei}  see these two TNA spikes after 51 break?
[11:33] {Threei}  got both
[11:33] {nemo} most cool
[11:34] {nemo} of the spy 38.2 retracement from the December low
[11:34] {nemo} same play as yesterday
[11:34] {nemo} of course, I don't get back in time to take advantage of it, looks like it was early morning setup too
[11:35] {Threei}  get this nemo
[11:35] {Threei}  started morning fine, with 3 wins and one stop,
[11:35] {Threei}  then got into this pickle:
[11:35] {Threei}  bopight FAZ and intended to short CAT,
[11:36] {nemo} ahhhh
[11:36] {Threei}  Greece published idiotic headline that meant nothing but looked optimistic on a first read
[11:36] {nemo} damn, missed tihs trade, what a PERFECT setup
[11:36] {nemo} ahhh
[11:36] {Threei}  stopped FAZ by 1 cent, after which it proceeded to a target and further,
[11:36] {Threei}  and invalidated CAT, after which it proceeded to a target
[11:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .60 break
[11:37] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[11:38] {nemo} damn, if I had gotten home 10 minutes earlier
[11:41] {Threei}  no go
[11:49] {RonS} took becn .00 to .21  thanks dino
[11:49] {cipher} becn 00 to .27 thx dino
[11:53] {Threei}  nice one
[11:55] {Threei}  watching GDX for pullback entry
[11:56] {Threei}  .75 - .80 zone
[12:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .80 break
[12:01] {RonS} oh boy...Mitt Romney: $JPM Loss is Part of Free Market Risk
[12:01] {Threei}  sigh
[12:02] {Threei}  even if he is right, what is he doing saying it out loud
[12:02] {RonS} yep
[12:05] {Threei}  I have a feeling, this is going to be historic election
[12:06] {Threei}  .74 stop
[12:07] {Threei}  half out
[12:07] {Threei}  scalpers take your loot
[12:07] {Threei}  nice when they work as [lanned well in advance
[12:11] {Threei}  with these two TNAs and GDX back in the money
[12:11] {Threei}  rolercoaster day
[12:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  52 break
[12:21] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[12:22] {Threei}  Invalidated
[12:30] {RonS} wlt capitulatory volume...
[12:30] {Threei}  pulp...
[12:30] {Threei}  whwere is dino
[12:30] {Threei}  gremlins again or what
[12:31] {Threei}  nore how weak FCX is
[12:31] {Threei}  note
[12:36] {Threei}  gish... Europe can't live without drama, even in the most routine matters:
[12:36] {Threei}  French President Hollande en route to Berlin from Paris in a 2nd plane after 1st was hit by lightning
[12:37] {Threei}  The FBI in New York has opened an inquiry into JP Morgan Chase's $2 billion loss, sources say
[12:37] {Threei}  FBI?
[12:37] {Threei}  has world gone insane?
[12:53] {Beau} a late good morning
[12:53] {Threei}  morning beau
[12:53] {Threei}  or afternoon
[12:54] {nemo} fosl interesting here
[12:54] {Beau} how has the day been?
[12:54] {Threei}  rollercoaster but in profit
[12:55] {Beau} good
[13:38] {Threei}  FCX starts looking like serious breakdown in the making
[13:38] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
[13:38] {Threei}  dino, gremlins?
[13:39] {RonS} dino lxu but be careful they had a plant explosion...
[13:41] {dino} no gremlins, real estate issues again
[13:42] {Threei}  ah
[13:42] {Threei}  ok FCX
[13:42] {dino} thx ron looking at it
[13:42] {Threei}  time to make new low
[13:43] {Threei}  here we go
[13:44] {Threei}  daily looks horrible, intraday is even worse, and copper drops
[13:44] {dino} fcx gap filled from dec
[13:45] {Threei}  let's cover half here
[13:46] {Threei}  .23
[13:46] {Threei}  stop to .32
[13:49] {dino} lxu smr l .61
[13:53] {dino} stop .44, -.17
[13:53] {Threei}  Greece could make 'orderly exit' from eurozone, IMF chief
[13:53] {Threei}  lord... let it out already
[13:54] {Threei}  can you imagine the agony of another election in a month
[13:54] {Threei}  bid 1/4 more FCX arpund .17
[13:55] {Threei}  direct hit
[13:56] {Threei}  stop to .26
[13:56] {Threei}  let's see what we can squeeze out of the last piece
[13:57] {Threei}  want it under .10
[14:11] {dino} lxu sm l .50
[14:15] {dino} out .14, +.64
[14:15] {Threei}  wtg
[14:15] {dino} ty and thx ron for heads up
[14:16] {RonS} yw
[14:16] {RonS} thanks for becn earlier
[14:17] {dino} np buddy
[14:17] {dino} looking at it again
[14:18] {RonS} "it's all good, it's all love"
[14:18] {RonS} my young so-cal dude boss' favorite saying...
[14:21] {dino} l .00 becn
[14:23] {cipher} +.10 becn thx dino
[14:23] {cipher} .96 -} .06
[14:25] {RonS} Angela Merkel arrives at Passport Control at Paris airport.
[14:25] {RonS} "Nationality?" asks the immigration officer.
[14:26] {RonS} "German," she replies
[14:26] {RonS} Occupation?"
[14:26] {RonS} "No, just here for a few days.
[14:26] {dino} gj cipher
[14:26] {Threei}  rofl
[14:26] {cipher} lol
[14:26] {dino} lol ron
[14:37] {dino} out becn ave .13 +.13
[14:38] {RonS} evep
[14:39] {dino} dk, oils getting killed
[14:44] {Threei}  FCX makes new lows... didn't get a setup to reshort it
[14:44] {RonS} all resource stocks...slw too
[14:52] {Threei}  under 33
[14:52] {Threei}  train wreck
[14:53] {RonS} copper to 3.51
[14:57] {RonS} man that gdx is just foogly...
[15:02] {Beau} foogly?
[15:02] {RonS} casual fugly...
[15:03] {Beau} oh.
[15:03] {RonS} short for freakin ugly of course...
[15:03] {RonS} :P
[15:04] {Beau} learn something every day.
[15:05] {Threei}  let's call it fubar'ed
[15:05] {Beau} ok but will  you respect them in the morning?
[15:07] {RonS} double coyote ugly...
[15:08] {RonS} wake up w/ arm around woman so ugly...you chew your arm off so as not to wake her up
[15:08] {RonS} then later chew your other arm off 'cause she will be looking for a one-armed man...
[15:09] {RonS} :O
[15:10] {dino} butterface still cracks me up
[15:11] {dino} just fell hard
[15:11] {RonS} cause for a triple bagger...
[15:12] {dino} new lows
[15:12] {RonS} one for her, one for you, and one for the dog so it won't howl...
[15:12] {dino} lol
[15:12] {dino} nice body, but-her-face
[15:14] {RonS} WSJ reports GM to stop buying ads on Facebook, sees them as ineffective
[15:15] {RonS} es fute buyers here pretty small...
[15:15] {RonS} getting overwhelmed
[15:18] {RonS} if you believe CNBC, then the reason for this drop is a transcript from a Greek meeting that indicates that 700 million in deposits (Euro) have left the banking system
[15:18] {RonS} ...John Corzine again?...
[15:20] {dino} that was out on wsj.com hours ago
[15:21] {RonS} ...guess they are slow readers...
[15:22] {dino} gaps below 12421, 2547, 1325, 1312
[15:22] {RonS} some have said if spx loses 1330 then 1280 in the offing...
[15:24] {dino} since may 1st (11 trade days) dji-5.5%, ndx -6.6%, s/p -6%., also if close negative dji neg 9/11 days, ndx neg 8/11, s&p neg 8/11
[15:24] {dino} feeling a bit extreme, but...
[15:25] {RonS} ...there is a big volume gap south of rut 772 to 740...
[15:27] {RonS} 300k es buyer here...
[15:27] {dino} gaps all over, s/p 1325,1312,1289,1257,1195,1155
[15:28] {RonS} but those are price gaps, no?
[15:28] {RonS} price and volume gaps get fast moves...
[15:29] {dino} y
[15:31] {RonS} lol... I'm perfectly hedged right now, I am drinking coffee and wearing Crest White Strips. (from twitter)
[15:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  GS  100 break small shares
[15:34] {Threei}  .85 stop
[15:34] {Threei}  1:2 target
[15:36] {Threei}  nah, not ready
[15:39] {Threei}  probably now
[15:39] {Threei}  looks better
[15:39] {Threei}  same setup
[15:40] {Threei}  1:1
[15:49] {Threei}  miners, mama mia
[15:50] {dino} becn l .00
[15:50] {dino} avp spike
[15:51] {Threei}  as sever as this selking looks, I don't have a sense it's a capitulation yet
[15:51] {Threei}  more downside in cards
[15:52] {Threei}  I knoe I repeat it many times, but it just keeps going down :)
[15:52] {Threei}  look GLD
[15:52] {Threei}  one thing that may bounce with any market support is X
[15:53] {Threei}  hit support from December on a sharp vertical bar
[15:53] {Threei}  gotta keep an eye on it tomorrow
[15:55] {Threei}  too bad we are running out of time, it starts forming bounce
[15:58] {dino} out becn -.02
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all
[16:00] {Threei}  nice day after all
[16:00] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow