Sep 11 2012

Nice day with a few good trades including CLF 45 cents long;  this CAT trade on a short side for 1:3 made Catch of the Day though as setup is a typical one.

Session Time: Tue Sep 11 00:00:00 2012
[07:48] {nemo} Folks...I did a blog entry about yesterday's action
[08:50] {Threei}  (US) Moody's issues update on US Sovereign ratings: Budget negotiations are key to rating direction
[08:50] {Threei}  - Budget negotiations during the 2013 Congressional legislative session will likely determine the direction of the US government's Aaa rating and negative outlook, says Moody's Investors Service in the report "Update of the Outlook for the US Government Debt Rating. If those negotiations lead to specific policies that produce a stabilization and then downward trend in the ratio of federal debt to GDP over the medium term, the rating will likely be affirmed and the outlook returned to stable.
[08:51] {Threei}  - Moody's views the maintenance of the Aaa with a negative outlook into 2014 as unlikely. The only scenario that would likely lead to its temporary maintenance would be if the method adopted to achieve debt stabilization involved a large, immediate fiscal shock--such as would occur if the so-called "fiscal cliff" actually materialized--which could lead to instability. Moody's would then need evidence that the economy could rebound from the shock before it would consider returning to a stable outlook.
[08:53] {nemo} Hey Vad...that lecture is going to be videod, or aviod mpegiod.  Alex wants it...go figure
[08:54] {Threei}  one you give?
[08:54] {nemo} yes
[08:54] {Threei}  cool... looking forward
[08:56] {nemo} whether he'll let it see the light of day is another story, but I'll get a copy and I'll upload it to your site so you can see it
[08:56] {Threei}  ty
[09:03] {jackharry} good morning
[09:03] {Threei}  jack :)
[09:10] {goryl} gm all
[09:11] {Threei}  goryl :)
[09:15] {RonS} hello everyone
[09:15] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:15] {nemo} even me Ron?
[09:16] {dino} gm
[09:16] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:17] {scottie} gm
[09:17] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:17] {Will49} gm
[09:18] {Threei}  will :)
[09:18] {RonS} wow...unreal...JPM on the new iPhone:  The new iPhone sales could boost GDP by $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate. That is an increase of 0.33 percentage point in the annualized rate of GDP growth. It could be even higher, he says. Even a third of a percentage point would limit the risk the economy would grow more slowly th
[09:19] {RonS} grow more slowly than J.P. Morgan's fourth-quarter growth projection of 2%
[09:19] {Threei}  AAPL will save the world
[09:19] {Beau} good morning all
[09:19] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:19] {Threei}  meanwhile,
[09:20] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/g1y5w
[09:21] {RonS} all when the could be generating heat by tweeting on their new iphone...
[09:22] {RonS} said marie antoinette...
[09:23] {Threei}  yeah
[09:23] {Threei}  why don't we just increase the rate of churning those iphon models to add to GDP even more?
[09:24] {jackharry} Also on Greece - self employed evaded £22 billion (about $35 billion) in 2009, about a third of the country's deficit that year. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2201361/Shocking-scale-tax-dodging-bleeds-Greece-dry-Self-employed-fail-pay-22BILLION-2009--country-s-deficit.html
[09:25] {jackharry} evaded tax that is
[09:25] {robbers} China comes out with ripped version of iPhone 5, call it the iPhony.
[09:26] {Will49} :)
[09:26] {Threei}  lol
[09:28] {Threei}  http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2012/09/nemos-stream-of-un-consciousness.html
[09:28] {dino} lol
[09:28] {Beau} before we start the day, please take a moment and remember 9/11/2001
[09:30] {nemo} gmcr going for 33.50 today toda
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .75 break hl
[09:31] {ese} morning
[09:31] {Threei}  change to .70
[09:31] {Threei}  morning ese
[09:32] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:32] {ese} morning
[09:32] {nemo} l gmcr .46
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .15 break
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[09:33] {nemo} scratching
[09:33] {nemo} too old for that
[09:33] {nemo} whoa, good scratch
[09:33] {nemo} maybe not
[09:34] {dptl} gm
[09:34] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:35] {Threei}  for nemo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAAw05J-6ek
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .45 bresak
[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[09:36] {Threei}  1:1
[09:36] {jackharry} missed it
[09:37] {Will49} got .10 tks Vad
[09:37] {scottie} out .35 +.08, ty Vad
[09:37] {Threei}  yw
[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .10 break
[09:39] {Threei}  aww
[09:39] {Threei}  too fast
[09:41] {Beau} came back and got me at .12
[09:41] {Threei}  1:1
[09:43] {Beau} +.10 thanks vad
[09:43] {Threei}  :)
[09:43] {Threei}  Qihoo 360 Technology Company Ltd. Ticks higher on China blog report that says QIHU CEO has "hinted at possible collaborations with Google, Microsoft and local rival Sogou"
[09:44] {Threei}  QIHU
[09:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .65 break
[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[09:46] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  CLF  .95 break hl
[09:49] {Threei}  offer 1 st prtial here
[09:49] {ese} in .96
[09:49] {Threei}  stop to .94
[09:49] {Threei}  second here
[09:49] {Threei}  .28
[09:50] {ese} out .31
[09:50] {Threei}  FCX stop to .69
[09:50] {Threei}  wtg ese
[09:50] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:50] {ese} thank YOU vad
[09:50] {Threei}  welcome sir
[09:50] {ese} saw that last little push and hit the sell
[09:50] {Threei}  out in full .40
[09:51] {ese} nice yourself
[09:51] {scottie} fcx +.10 thanks Vad
[09:51] {goryl} fcx
[09:52] {Threei}  yw
[09:52] {Threei}  where is dolores, she loves CLF trades
[09:53] {ese} ok whats up with the mrkt.......why the push here
[09:53] {Threei}  no news
[09:53] {ese} egggggzactilly
[09:53] {nemo} Range run
[09:53] {Threei}  everyone tries to frontrun tomorrow's German court
[09:53] {nemo} IWM bottomed yesterday at the close at MR1, bought support going to resistance
[09:54] {nemo} Financials closed just off MR1
[09:55] {nemo} also SPY closed just above price and Semesterly support, there were alot of significant levels at which price action closed yesterday
[09:55] {nemo} I posted it this morning
[09:58] {ese} lots of things confounding me these days.......not sure why that German court decision should have that much of an effect on the market.........it's pretty much a done deal anyway
[09:59] {Threei}  well, imagine what happens if they say no
[09:59] {Threei}  my bet is, -500 points DJI, probably more
[10:00] {ese} i guess.........ya gota figure though that they will stay polically neutral don't ya think..........
[10:00] {robbers} Third option:  I think there's an appeal process that'll delay the final decision.  Euro never met a can they didn't want to kick further down the road.
[10:01] {Threei}  if they do, they judge by purely constitutional motives
[10:01] {ese} lol
[10:01] {dino} they should use rule of law ese, but most likely will not
[10:01] {ese} ain't that the truth
[10:01] {Threei}  are you that confident that ECB bind buying is constitutional by German law?
[10:01] {dolores} hello I am late
[10:01] {dolores} didm i miss much CLF?
[10:02] {Threei}  too bad dolores... missed a few good ones, including your favorite CLF
[10:02] {ese} like the united nations..............they've never met a massacre they didn't like
[10:02] {dolores} well...
[10:03] {dolores} got 14 cents just now!
[10:03] {dolores} but small amount
[10:03] {dolores} this thi ng can go to 42'
[10:03] {dolores} ?
[10:03] {Threei}  we grabbed it under 41
[10:04] {ese} correction.........vad grabbed it under 41.....we tagged along
[10:04] {dolores} nice
[10:04] {nemo} gmcr at support
[10:04] {dolores} on what all this movement?
[10:05] {Threei}  FCX two-sided, .50 - .80
[10:05] {Threei}  .70 - .80
[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: PAY  .60 break
[10:08] {Threei}  hl
[10:08] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:13] {dino} unfi sm l .01
[10:13] {dino} out unfi .38, =.38
[10:13] {dino} +.38
[10:13] {nemo} should retest the highs at a minimum dino
[10:13] {dino} 56?
[10:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  QIHU  24 break hl
[10:14] {nemo} 55.25
[10:14] {nemo} thats right near a retrace level too
[10:14] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:15] {dino} sm l .01
[10:19] {dino} out unfi .38, +.37
[10:21] {Threei}  no go QIHU
[10:23] {dolores} PAY holding
[10:23] {Threei}  yeah, locked
[10:23] {Threei}  not anymore
[10:24] {Will49} PAYnful
[10:26] {dino} wtf unfi
[10:26] {Threei} Short Setup: LLY  .50 break
[10:27] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[10:27] {nemo} breaks this high look for 57.80
[10:29] {Threei}  NYSE volume 125M shares, about 18% below its three-month average; a. - NASDAQ volume 340M shares, about 6% below its three-month average
[10:31] {nemo} sp looks like it might pop
[10:33] {Threei}  LLY has nice room for movement
[10:33] {Threei}  let's try to cover first part closer to .40, like .42
[10:34] {Threei}  and see if we can ride the rest to about .30
[10:34] {nemo} arguably bull flags on the indexes
[10:34] {robbers} Where's nemo, beautiful cascade chart.
[10:35] {nemo} ?
[10:35] {robbers} Thought you and Three joke about cascade?
[10:35] {Threei}  nemo is an object of finding
[10:35] {nemo} I did, last weeks entry
[10:36] {dino} cov lly .44, ty vad
[10:36] {Threei}  :)
[10:36] {Threei}  ese play...
[10:36] {Threei}  10K shares, 5 cents :)
[10:36] {dino} indeed
[10:39] {thomcbell} long setup aig 32.96 break if holding 32.85
[10:41] {Threei}  half out .42
[10:44] {Threei}  stop to .51 of course
[10:44] {Threei}  wow... Morgan Freeman facebook deat hoax
[10:44] {Threei}  I guess Thomas Jefferson was right when said in his blog you can't believe everything you read on Internet
[10:46] {Will49} lol
[10:47] {Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): Not at all confident that the US can avoid the fiscal cliff
[10:49] {ese} am outta here cya tomorrow....vad thanks for the clf trade
[10:49] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:51] {dolores} how was the call for CLF?
[10:51] {dolores} 1.3?
[10:51] {Threei}  09:48] {Threei} Long Setup: CLF .95 break hl
[10:51] {Threei}  [09:50] {Threei} out in full .40
[10:51] {Threei}  [09:52] {Threei} where is dolores, she loves CLF trades
[10:52] {dolores} nice
[10:52] {nemo} clf gonna' go again
[10:55] {nemo} interesting, just like yesterday, SPY and IWM were moved separately
[10:57] {dino} centa sm l .50
[10:58] {dolores} out LLY
[11:00] {nemo} cat
[11:01] {nemo} mmmhhhh GS still at the top of it's run, court will vote for the ECB
[11:02] {nemo} cat consolidates a little here, nice break play
[11:06] {RonS} someone needs to make centa nickla or dime-a...
[11:06] {thomcbell}  i am looking for 33.30 on aig
[11:06] {thomcbell} almost touched 1:1
[11:07] {thomcbell} feel like buyers very much in control - just a huge print of stock
[11:10] {dolores} CLF on its way to test 45
[11:10] {dolores} maybe not today but
[11:12] {dino} lrn drop
[11:13] {thomcbell} aig 1:1
[11:14] {RonS} LRN negative piece by TheFinancialInvestigator. Key warning: "steps to revoke the school’s charter will begin"
[11:14] {dino} ty
[11:14] {RonS} http://www.thefinancialinvestigator.com/?p=816
[11:14] {Threei}  nice move AIG
[11:14] {dolores} LLY about to test hgihs
[11:14] {dolores} slowly creeping up
[11:15] {RonS} nutz...PPO
[11:18] {goryl} Vad, or any of the seasoned veterans here, being a newbie, what should I focus on in order to build my analytical skills.  Obviously, Vad's trades are phenomenal but i want to build my confidence.  Any words of wisdom?:) What should i do for the first few months etc..
[11:18] {Threei}  IMO, don't overcomplicate or overanalyze it,
[11:19] {goryl} I know, that's my problem:)
[11:19] {Threei}  watch every tradem recognize every setup, make sureyou undrstand reason for a trade,
[11:19] {Threei}  and in a while you'll start seeing them
[11:19] {Threei}  this is how it happens, folks follow the trades and internalize the patterns,
[11:19] {Threei}  and in a few months I see them starting spotting trades on their own
[11:21] {dino} keep it simple goryl. my system is extremely basic
[11:22] {dolores} goryl I would advice read the whole website and listen to the interview
[11:23] {dolores} and study the videos
[11:23] {Threei}  and drink
[11:23] {dolores} explaining the diferent set ups and trades
[11:23] {goryl} :) i got that covered
[11:23] {Threei}  I mean, keep yourself hydrated
[11:23] {Threei}  :)
[11:26] {nemo} GS just keeps going up
[11:27] {goryl} i've read 111 trades twice and watched "How to Scalp.." videos so i'm pretty familiar with the setups.
[11:28] {Threei}  I need to go over all that stuff too... people say it's good
[11:29] {dolores} LLY short?
[11:29] {dolores} .60?
[11:30] {Threei}  market is so stubbornly strong, I am hesitant to short
[11:30] {dolores} ok
[11:30] {nemo} I don't see weakness yet
[11:41] {nemo} we haven't closed the 15 minute bar yet, but spxu might be worth a small starter position here
[11:42] {dptl} pay .50 short?
[11:42] {nemo} yep
[11:43] {Threei}  a bit too narrow today
[11:44] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  89 break
[11:44] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[11:46] {nemo} .16 stop for me
[11:47] {Threei}  target 1:3
[11:49] {nemo} mmmhhhh....maybe GS got an update
[11:49] {Threei}  1:1
[11:49] {scottie} covered .88 +.10 ty
[11:50] {Threei}  yw
[11:50] {Will49} yes....10 also tks
[11:54] {dptl} stop to .01?
[11:54] {Threei}  of course
[11:54] {Threei}  or as tbell would say, obviously
[11:54] {Threei}  1:2
[11:55] {Threei}  stop to .91
[11:55] {Threei}  obviously
[11:56] {dptl} out ty
[11:56] {Threei}  what the deuce... no one goes for the full target
[11:57] {Threei}  come on CAT, hit 1:3 so all the whimps and pesky scalpers cry
[11:57] {Threei}  1:3 baby
[11:57] {Threei}  out in full
[12:03] {Threei}  so, now no one is talking to me, eh? Mom told me don't win every time, no one will come out to play with you next dasy
[12:03] {Threei}  visual: http://goo.gl/6Tuqw
[12:07] {thomcbell} i sold 1/2 aig 33.11
[12:07] {thomcbell} stop to 33 on balance
[12:12] {nemo} bounce time
[12:13] {thomcbell} 1:2 AIG
[12:18] {dptl} deck short?
[12:19] {Threei}  worth a try but don't count on much
[12:21] {dptl} lol offering .19 and got 1 share
[12:22] {Threei}  told you, don't count on much {GGG}
[12:23] {dptl} .30 stop
[12:23] {Threei}  hey, with 1 share why not live it dangerously and put stop at .25
[12:24] {dptl} .25?
[12:24] {Threei}  .35
[12:24] {dptl} oh....
[12:25] {dptl} i'll keep it at above .30
[12:30] {dino} internet went down
[12:32] {Threei}  yikes
[12:42] {dptl} how about joy .55 short?
[12:43] {Threei}  yes... if you are cruel enough to short JOY
[12:43] {dptl} above.65 stop
[12:44] {dptl} in
[12:46] {Threei}  DP The KillerJoy
[12:47] {thomcbell} for those of u long aig - i would sell another 1/4
[12:47] {dptl} bidding .41
[12:47] {dino} dp, nice spot joy
[12:48] {dptl} ty
[12:50] {thomcbell} stop to 33.14 on aig balance
[12:52] {thomcbell} out aig
[12:53] {dino} cmp drop
[12:54] {dptl} out deck here
[12:54] {dptl} +.15
[12:54] {Threei}  nice
[12:55] {dptl} oops....too soon lol
[12:55] {dptl} wow look at that
[13:03] {dino} cmp sm l .25
[13:09] {dptl} hes .40 break long?
[13:10] {dptl} or .30 short ? may be
[13:11] {Threei}  hmmm
[13:11] {Threei}  long etup is better pronounced
[13:11] {Threei}  but market drops
[13:11] {Threei}  I'd play long if market reverses, and skip short
[13:11] {dptl} ok
[13:16] {Beau} off to doc.  have fun rest of day.
[13:17] {Threei}  take care beau
[13:25] {dptl} did't move with market hes
[13:32] {dino} feels like august afternoons are still here, barely any movement
[13:32] {nemo} frickin' krauts
[13:33] {dino} starting to wonder if volume ever gets back up
[13:34] {dino} my 07 scanner is just clunking along, usually it runs smoothly, just not much movement
[13:36] {dino} unfi sm l .11
[13:40] {dptl} fslr .75 short?
[13:41] {Threei}  nah
[13:43] {dptl} how about coh .70 long?
[13:44] {Threei}  yes
[13:44] {dptl} in
[13:44] {Threei}  looks good to above .90
[13:47] {nemo} vmw showing capitualtion volume
[13:48] {nemo} s .45
[13:48] {nemo} small
[13:48] {nemo} gawd I feel like Dino
[13:48] {nemo} stop above the high
[13:48] {dptl} half out
[13:49] {dino} gold, rgld drop
[13:50] {nemo} mmmmhhhhhh...what would Dino do?
[13:51] {dino} eat his chicken wings
[13:51] {nemo} ahhhh....don't have any
[13:52] {nemo} nyse on bid and offer, hate that
[13:53] {nemo} liking this
[13:54] {dino} gj vmw
[13:54] {nemo} partial .21
[13:54] {nemo} your play
[13:54] {dino} you went off volume spike, right?
[13:54] {nemo} yes, 4 minutes worth
[13:55] {nemo} out above .40
[13:56] {dolores} CLF Same movement as yesterday
[13:56] {dolores} drops fast and FCX holds
[14:14] {scottie} Answered your question goryl, sorry for delay
[14:15] {Threei}  don't believe him goryl, he intentionally ignored you to enjoy the torture
[14:15] {Threei}  nemo imprinted his life views on all of us
[14:16] {scottie} Ahhh, you spoiled the secret
[14:17] {Threei}  sorry... I enjoy spoiling secrets too, and it's again nemo's fault
[14:17] {goryl} no prob:) see you all tomorrow
[14:18] {scottie} bye
[14:18] {Threei}  take care goryl
[14:21] {dino} cmp to .66
[14:24] {dino} cmp to .80
[14:26] {dptl} pay .55 short?
[14:27] {Threei}  I think so
[14:27] {dino} to .90 cmp
[14:28] {dptl} with stop above.60?
[14:29] {Threei}  couple cnts more
[14:31] {dino} to .95
[14:33] {dino} wtf major slip out cmp .86, +.61
[14:49] {dolores} anything new?  nas red !
[14:49] {nemo} frickin' groundhog day
[14:51] {dino} out centa flat, all day for nothing
[14:55] {Threei}  very nice day so far, let's see if we can get last hour play
[14:57] {dptl} anf .95 long?
[14:58] {Threei}  late
[14:58] {dptl} missed
[15:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
[15:00] {Threei}  If holds  84
[15:00] {dptl} clf .40short may be?
[15:01] {Threei}  yup, half lot
[15:01] {dptl} stop?
[15:01] {Threei}  target about .20 - .25 CLF
[15:02] {Threei}  above .5-0
[15:02] {dolores} out IWM
[15:03] {Threei}  1:1 CLF
[15:04] {dolores} too soon saw that 83.99 and sold
[15:05] {Will49} yeah..me too D
[15:05] {scottie} same thing here D
[15:05] {dolores} well makes me feel better
[15:05] {Will49} hair trigger
[15:05] {dolores} thought was my mistake
[15:06] {scottie} What do you say Will? "misery loves company"
[15:06] {Will49} that three of us did it...still too quick, no?
[15:07] {Will49} yeah scottie...as D says, makes you feel at least that you're not too far off base
[15:07] {Will49} either we're all slow learners or this is the path that most follow
[15:08] {Will49} what say ad?
[15:08] {Will49} ad?
[15:08] {Will49} Vad
[15:08] {Threei}  I don't know what to say... we spoke of this like 10 times already... :)
[15:09] {Will49} I type like I trade:D
[15:09] {Threei}  I may just as well copy that text ans paste it every time
[15:09] {Will49} now , now Vad
[15:09] {Will49} be gentle
[15:09] {Threei}  me? gentle?
[15:09] {Threei}  nemo won't ever speak to me again
[15:10] {Threei}  thick stock, a lot of liquidity, tight stop... why sell on first 100 shares print?
[15:10] {Threei}  why not give it a few seconds to make sure stop is really getting hit
[15:10] {Will49} where have I heard that before?
[15:10] {Threei}  really {G}
[15:11] {Threei}  you may alsoe have heard this:
[15:11] {Threei}  this is exactly why I hate automated stops
[15:11] {Threei}  they do not have this discretion
[15:11] {Will49} getting something through my thick skull takes time
[15:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .50 break
[15:12] {Threei}  hl
[15:12] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[15:13] {dptl} anf 36 long?
[15:14] {Threei}  not sure, a bit too narrow
[15:16] {Threei}  market doesn't look like rewarding longs
[15:16] {Threei}  maybe misreading it...
[15:19] {Threei}  no go
[15:19] {nemo} Groundhog day
[15:29] {nemo} arguably tna above .20
[15:31] {scottie} good night all, see you tomorrow
[15:31] {Threei}  take care scottie
[15:31] {Will49} see ya brother
[15:31] {dino} cya
[15:36] {nemo} look at the pummeling the $ took and the market can't rally....
[15:37] {dptl} coh short ?.25?
[15:37] {Threei}  I think so
[15:37] {dptl} .36 stop
[15:38] {dptl} in small
[15:39] {dolores} ok guys see you tomorrow
[15:39] {dolores} thks
[15:39] {dolores} take care
[15:40] {dptl} ahh stopped
[15:40] {Threei}  take care dolores
[15:41] {dptl} gn all
[15:41] {Will49} cy dp
[15:42] {dino} cya
[15:51] {Will49} bye dino...live to fight another day
[15:52] {Will49} 10-4 all
[15:52] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:52] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:54] {dino} thx all, gn

Nemo's Stream of (un) Consciousness Findings

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

9/10/2012:  ZZZZZzzzzzzz....well, not really.  Many stocks had relatively significant movement yesterday.  The indexes did some meandering, with IWM testing the ranges: first the old resistance from Thursday, that became new support on Friday-which it tested twice, and then by gently piercing the Friday highs just under yesterday's confluence of the Daily R1 and the Quarterly R1with an end of day descent leaving it resting on the Monthly R1 and Daily S1.  SPY's low bottomed at 144 (there's the test of the whole number again) near the 144.02 daily S1 then breaching Friday's high before joining the IWM and financials in the afternoon descent closing at the Daily S3.

Notice how SPY and IWM's movements were not correlated until the final descent starting 1:45.

Financials, tested the Friday's high's concurrently with the SPY and then were weak the rest of the day touching the daily S2 before closing slightly above.

Bonds, as can be expected, rallied into the close as the indexes sputtered.

Now for the descent....I'm on record expecting a relative meandering until the German pronouncements. I of course, could be wrong.  What could be the psychology of the market going into the 12th?

We've just had a long bullish run.  We're coming into a relatively short time period of relative uncertainty.  What do you do?  Simple...you take some profit, or hedge.  Thus the weakness, or at least a reasonable explanation of the weakness.  Which leads me to my, Nemo-you moron...moment.  

Today is 9/11....mmmmmhhhh, which coincidently is the day before the pronouncement.  If the market is us, and the algo's are programmed by us, might that lead to a bit of hesitancy psychologically?   Just sayin'...

Watch the weekly pivots, and watch previous ranges for the action to test them.

9/11/2012:  Let's see what today brings.  The futures are relatively subdued as the clock ticks by 7:42... 

Sure this isn't Groundhog day?  Indexes and financials lifted off those levels to test, in the case of SPY, and surpass albeit slightly in the case of IWM, and then proceeded to sell off, although they closed above yesterday:  IWM just about above the daily pivot, and SPY also just above the daily pivot.

Financials stayed strong all day, so didn't  the "Vampire Squid" GS, although it did sell off to close right on VWAP.

One more interesting tidbit.  The $ sold off significantly, yet the market couldn't maintain the rally.  Is it more a question of strength for the Euro and the expectation of a German "Die Daumen Auf! -thumbs up  (well that's literal...they don't really say that) for the ECB.

Clear as mud...

So, either the strong financials led by GS are signalling all is clear, or the last two days have been distribution.  Tick...tick...tick...tick  

9/12/2012:  The Germans, as expected, didn't go Kamikaze (mixed historic metaphors there)  on the EU/ECB.   Indexes held the range, and GS finished near the top of it's range.  Can See Lloyd (doing God's work) Blankfein lubing up the arm to shove up Bernanke's ass to make his lips move tomorrow.

9/13/2012:  And the bearded clams delivered!!!!   Free money 24 hours a day 8 days a week as far as the eye can see!!!  

He's taking 40billion a month of that bad collateral off the hands of the bank.   Mmmmhhhh...raw materials and oil ripped north with the decision.  I wonder how far the economy can go as oil climbs towards it's 2008 highs with the Middle East looking more like a powder keg every day?

We're not far away from my month end target of 153 spy.  There are headwinds in the 150 area.  IWM finished Thursday off, but got withing .70 USD of its 2011 highs.  Expecting gap up on Friday, with the potential for profit taking going into the afternoon.

I expect this bus to keep going north into the elections.  There is nothing to slow this train down unless earnings season is a disaster.
 

Sep 10 2012

Positive day but somewhat uneven, and leaving with feeling of potential underutilized. 



Session Time: Mon Sep 10 00:00:00 2012
[09:00] {Threei}  yawn
[09:05] {scottie} gm
[09:06] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:06] {goryl} gm
[09:06] {jackharry} good morning
[09:06] {Threei}  goryl, jack :)
[09:10] {dino} gm
[09:10] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:11] {Threei}  things in Germany look a bit more complicated
[09:11] {Threei}  a lot of opposition to bond buying
[09:15] {Beau} good morning all
[09:15] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:16] {Beau} nemo, appreciate the chart. May have questons as I study it. OK?
[09:17] {nemo} yep
[09:19] {Threei}  how about Sunday Links e-mail this weekend? who got it, who didn't?
[09:19] {scottie} ok here
[09:19] {Will49} gm
[09:19] {jackharry} yes
[09:19] {Threei}  will :)
[09:19] {goryl} got it
[09:19] {Will49} didn't get sunday email
[09:19] {Beau} got it
[09:20] {Threei}  it was sent on Sat actually, will :)
[09:20] {Will49} still didn't get it
[09:20] {RonS} gm got it...
[09:20] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:21] {dolores} hello GM
[09:21] {robbers} Got it.
[09:21] {dolores} I did not get any link this weekend
[09:21] {Threei}  hi dolores
[09:22] {ese} morning......
[09:22] {Threei}  bill, check your e-mail now, trying something
[09:22] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:22] {ese} auditions for my high school R&B band start today...........vad you going to audition.........vocals?
[09:22] {Will49} Got it..tks
[09:23] {dolores} and checked my spam
[09:23] {Threei}  you too, dolores, look now
[09:23] {Threei}  hmmm... sounds interesting ese
[09:23] {dolores} now yes thxs+
[09:23] {dolores} where is my :)?
[09:23] {dptl} gm
[09:23] {dino} got it
[09:24] {goryl} Does anyone know  the symbol for nasdaq futures on laser?
[09:24] {Threei}  OK, I don't know what's with this... it goes through when sent manually but not automatically, from the same address
[09:24] {ese} dp
[09:24] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:24] {Threei}  sorry, dolores, missed it checking on e-mail... here it:
[09:24] {Threei}  :)
[09:24] {dolores} ha ha thxs
[09:25] {Threei}  overall though, it went throuhg with much higher % this weekend
[09:25] {Will49} maybe the german high court has to approve my emails
[09:25] {Threei}  none of techies I spoke to can pinpoint the problem
[09:26] {Threei}  so... make sure to check the trading log if you don't get e-mail
[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .40 break
[09:30] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break hl
[09:32] {dino} mlnx blood again
[09:32] {Threei}  AIG target 1:2
[09:32] {Threei}  FCX invalidated
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {scottie} +.10 ty Vad, nice start
[09:33] {Threei}  yw
[09:34] {Will49} yes..tks Vad
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .85 break
[09:35] {Threei}  hl
[09:35] {dino} bud sm l .10
[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:35] {Threei}  target .65
[09:36] {Threei}  half out
[09:36] {Threei}  .75
[09:36] {Threei}  second half stopped
[09:39] {nemo} kors gonna' gap fill it looks
[09:39] {nemo} BTFD!!!!!
[09:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  CLF  .20 break hl
[09:40] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:40] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:40] {Threei}  ummm
[09:40] {dolores} too fast
[09:40] {Threei}  good luck getting that fill
[09:40] {dolores} trade still on}?
[09:41] {Threei}  no, hit 1:1
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .45 break
[09:43] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[09:44] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:46] {nemo} mcp
[09:47] {nemo} bidu sheesh
[09:49] {dino} rkt sm l .99
[09:49] {dolores} that CLF must have goten a lot of shorters on the way up
[09:49] {dino} ndz
[09:50] {dolores} with that downgrade the day before
[09:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  VLO  .50
[09:51] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  SBUX  .70 break
[09:53] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:54] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:54] {Threei}  VLO target 1:3
[09:54] {Threei}  SBUX 1:1
[10:00] {Threei}  1:2, out
[10:00] {Threei}  first 30 min at 100%
[10:00] {Threei}  3:3 and one more wrking but impossible to execute
[10:01] {dino} out rkt .49,
[10:01] {dino} +.50
[10:01] {Threei}  wtg
[10:01] {dino} ty
[10:04] {dino} out bud .40, +.30
[10:05] {dolores} VLO still on right?
[10:05] {Threei}  yes
[10:07] {dolores} CLF trying to break that .85
[10:07] {dolores} resisted twice
[10:10] {thomcbell} long setup lvs - 43.97 break if holding 43.87
[10:10] {dino} gotta hop for hour
[10:11] {Threei}  we will be here dino
[10:16] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
[10:17] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:22] {dolores} out VLO
[10:22] {Threei}  no worky VLO
[10:24] {thomcbell} lvs target is 1:3
[10:24] {thomcbell} 1:1
[10:25] {dolores} VLO tricky one
[10:26] {thomcbell} by the book we are out lvs
[10:29] {RonS} ...secondary:  $KORS Insiders Look to Dump 23mn Shares
[10:33] {Threei}  let's trail FCX to .26
[10:34] {thomcbell} lvs - i am looking to re-engage long here
[10:34] {thomcbell} no setup yet
[10:36] {nemo} gmcr wow
[10:43] {Threei} Short Setup: LKX  .65 break
[10:43] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:43] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .60 break, inverse C&H
[10:43] {nemo} what stock
[10:43] {Threei}  LXK
[10:45] {thomcbell} now fcx getting interesting on 40.13 break short
[10:46] {Threei}  rinsed our short
[10:46] {Threei}  dirty rotten scoundrel
[10:46] {thomcbell} the money pouring into this stock is mind boggling
[10:47] {ese} outta here all.........if your wondering if i'm doing anything I am.......just not doing the type of trading we do on this board........took a long position in JPM a week and a bit back at 37.89.....really too busy for me at the start of the school year to do anything else almost....anyway have a great rest of the day...cya tomorrow
[10:48] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:49] {ese} cya vad
[10:49] {dolores} VAD when you mean aggressive you mean you will add heavy?
[10:50] {dolores} I am not sure I get that aggressive play
[10:51] {Threei}  http://blog.realitytrader.com/2007/07/how-aggressive-are-you.html
[10:52] {dolores} ok
[10:52] {dolores}  so at .65 means we get in before the break of .60
[10:53] {dolores} if we do not like the trade we can get out with less loss?
[10:53] {Threei}  correct
[10:53] {dolores} ok
[10:53] {dolores} so everyone is expecting the .60 to go short
[10:54] {dolores} and we only have 5 or 6 cents loss
[10:54] {dolores} if goes to .70
[10:54] {Threei}  yup
[10:54] {Threei}  that's the idea of aggressive entries
[10:55] {Threei}  frikin FCX
[10:55] {Threei}  in a way, self-inflicted wound... should have left stop at original place
[10:56] {dolores} LXK invalidated?
[10:56] {Threei}  yes
[11:06] {Threei}  - Investors are proceeding with caution this morning after last week's run up. With little economic data or equity news on the wires, markets are focused on the FOMC decision and the German Constitutional court rulings due later this week. There are also some concerns about the weak August China import data - the first contraction since January
[11:15] {dolores} LVS? at 44.20?
[11:16] {Threei}  I guess
[11:16] {Threei} Short Setup: AAP  70 break hl
[11:16] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[11:21] {dino} .
[11:22] {dolores} too fast for me
[11:22] {dolores} AAP
[11:22] {scottie} wow
[11:22] {Threei}  yeah, 1:1 ina blink of eye
[11:23] {scottie} great setup, too many people waiting at the gate
[11:23] {Will49} isn't that a "thin" stock for us?
[11:23] {Threei}  hence half lot
[11:24] {Will49} ahhh
[11:24] {dolores} trade off with that move?
[11:25] {Threei}  yes, dipped below 1:1
[11:28] {thomcbell} duh fcx
[11:29] {dolores} and CLF below 41 now
[11:29] {dolores} last I  covered 42
[11:40] {dino} pxp sm l .90 stop lod
[11:44] {dolores} TITN keeps tanking
[11:45] {dptl} apol .20 long if holds .10?
[11:47] {Threei}  no
[11:47] {dptl} ye invalidated
[11:49] {Threei}  break of 29 as short, maybe
[11:49] {Threei}  but keep size smallish
[11:52] {Threei}  invalidated too
[11:52] {dptl} .20 may be again
[11:58] {Threei}  we are back to midday quiet but it feels a very different kind of quiet
[11:58] {Threei}  in August it was just boredom of nothing to do
[11:58] {Threei}  today it's a quietness of "I am scared to move" kind
[11:59] {Threei} Short Setup: APOL  29 break hl
[11:59] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[12:06] {Threei}  nah
[12:10] {dino} pxp stop
[12:12] {dolores} APOL you were right
[12:15] {dino} rkt sm l .25
[12:20] {dolores} missed that PXP could not fill too fast
[12:23] {Threei}  President Obama leads his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in terms of voter trust on a number of other key issues including Afghanistan, education and Social Security. The partisan divide is predictable, but the president has a clear advantage among unaffiliated voters.
[12:23] {Threei}  48% Trust Romney More on Economy; 44% Trust Obama More
[12:25] {Threei}  (EU) EU is said to expect to outline its first concrete measures to recapitalize Spain in October - financial press- Troika mission to Portugal will likely end this week. - Italy not specifically on the agenda for next round of Eurogroup talks. - Not yet known whether the decision on Greece aid will come in October; Troika report unlikely to be complete before early Oct (Note: prior reports indicated discussions were previously expected to last into October). - Expect ESM to be operational in Oct.
[12:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  MOS  .30 break hl
[12:54] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[12:54] {Threei}  target .45
[13:12] {nemo} iwm quietly creepint to new highs
[13:13] {Threei}  half out
[13:14] {Threei}  stop to .29
[13:20] {scottie} out mos in full .37 +.06 ty Vad
[13:21] {Threei}  yw
[13:24] {nemo} mmmhh watch NOV for pull back short
[13:24] {nemo} or retrace short
[13:24] {nemo} or test resistance short
[13:24] {nemo} feels like August volume
[13:30] {nemo} volume coming in in nov
[13:30] {dino}  `abmd sm l .45
[13:31] {nemo} IWM could go for that spring high, but r1 on the daily is also the Quarterly R1 at .50
[13:38] {nemo} "The box office will rebound next weekend," said BoxOffice.com editor Phil Contrino, citing the 3-D re-release of Finding Nemo
[13:39] {Will49} i"ve never found myself
[13:39] {Will49} you are lucky
[13:40] {nemo} me neither, it's kinda' the inside joke of "nemo"
[13:43] {Threei}  hmmm
[13:43] {Threei}  no news for selloff
[13:46] {dino} have to say, august trading was better than sept for me so far
[13:47] {dino} not getting my capts/euphoric set-ups
[13:49] {nemo} you won't until the Karlsruhe Cardinals speak
[13:50] {dino} when is that, thursday?
[13:50] {nemo} 12th
[13:50] {dino} ahh germany
[13:51] {nemo} I love it...my trading system links directly to Freestockcharts now
[13:52] {RonS} good to know again Al...
[13:53] {RonS} as in alzheimers...you told us that last week...
[13:53] {nemo} ?
[13:53] {RonS} :D
[13:53] {nemo} yeah I know
[13:53] {nemo} Knowing your age, just in case you forgot
[13:54] {nemo} kinda' scary, we have similar senses of humor
[13:54] {Threei}  "We remember in great details whatever happened to us. We forget how many times we told the same people about it"
[13:54] {nemo} have you sought professional help Ron?
[13:56] {dptl} jcp.72 long?
[13:58] {Threei}  nah
[14:01] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .80 break
[14:03] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[14:09] {Will49} this still good?
[14:09] {Threei}  ?
[14:09] {Threei}  why not?
[14:09] {Will49} ?
[14:10] {Threei}  you lost me
[14:10] {Will49} bunch of prints under .80
[14:10] {Threei}  who is asking who what
[14:10] {nemo} It triggered and has not hit its stop therefore it is still valid and has not hit the "no worky" level
[14:10] {Will49} Ok
[14:10] {Threei}  those prints happened when trade has triggeredc
[14:11] {Threei}  bounce hasn't reached stop level, and so far occurs with lower volume
[14:11] {Will49} tks
[14:11] {Threei}  reversed off upper envelope of descending channel too
[14:12] {dolores} sorry was out are you in LVS now?
[14:12] {Threei}  yes
[14:13] {nemo} spy looks like a pop coming
[14:15] {Threei}  my feel is, smackdown is more likely, even though chart indicates what you say
[14:16] {nemo} vwap run
[14:17] {dolores} stop at .91 right
[14:17] {dolores} ?
[14:17] {Threei}  yes
[14:22] {Threei}  a few more rinses today than I like
[14:28] {dino} ugaz spike
[14:30] {dino} dgaz sm l .60
[14:34] {dino} stopeed
[14:34] {dino} stopped
[14:36] {dino} re-load .08
[14:42] {Threei}  here comes my smackdown
[14:43] {dolores} CLF almost 2 points down
[14:43] {dolores} close to yesterdays close
[14:51] {Threei}  GERN made a lot of holders from last weeks run unhappy this morning
[14:51] {dolores} APOL at lows
[14:51] {Threei}  volume is back under normal today
[14:52] {nemo} iwm at pivot
[14:52] {nemo} daily
[14:56] {nemo} vad email
[14:58] {nemo} Sooooo.....
[14:58] {nemo} Did I tell you Freestockcharts links up with my trading platform?
[14:59] {nemo} nothing like being bored with a hangover
[14:59] {Threei}  anyone has a spare grenade launcher?
[14:59] {Will49} what's your name again?
[14:59] {dino} falling asleep here
[14:59] {nemo} Will...look up what "nemo" means.
[15:00] {Threei}  (US) JULY CONSUMER CREDIT: -$3.27B V $9.55BE
[15:00] {dptl} lost fish?
[15:00] {Will49} Who said I look up to you? nemo
[15:00] {dino} wow consumer credit plunge
[15:01] {Threei}  1. Lost fish. 2. Mad captain of a submarine 3. Anvient Greek heor
[15:01] {dolores} thats a lot
[15:01] {dolores} consumer not buying?
[15:01] {Threei}  hard to tell dolores, this number can be interpreted in many ways
[15:02] {Threei}  not enough information to judge its meaning
[15:02] {dolores} ok
[15:02] {Threei}  could be consumer activity down, or banks not lending, or consumer uses more cash
[15:02] {Will49} you can be sure everybody will spin it their way
[15:05] {Will49} everybody=politicians and economists
[15:06] {dptl} fslr 21 short?
[15:10] {Threei}  I doubt it
[15:10] {Threei}  SPY makes new lows, FSLR holds its low depsite being generally weak and forming nicely looking DBI
[15:11] {Threei}  this kind tend to shoot up and tag your stop as soon as market makes slightest bounce
[15:11] {Threei}  and we got unusually high % of rinses today, so I would stay away from laggers like this
[15:12] {dptl} ok
[15:12] {dolores} CLF at yesterdays close
[15:12] {dolores} any buy ?
[15:13] {Threei}  watching, this one should give tradeable bounce soon
[15:13] {dolores} any special news or jsut profit taking?
[15:14] {dolores} FCX holding better
[15:14] {Threei}  no news
[15:15] {dolores} tanking too  much
[15:15] {dolores} for no news
[15:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  CLF  . 55 break hl
[15:17] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[15:17] {dolores} dont like that FCX is holding
[15:18] {Threei}  change to .45 break
[15:18] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[15:18] {dino} skul drop
[15:19] {Threei}  valid
[15:19] {Threei}  stop .38
[15:19] {Threei}  target .70
[15:19] {Threei}  first out
[15:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .30 break
[15:21] {Threei}  hl
[15:21] {Threei}  stop under .20
[15:24] {Threei}  1:1
[15:27] {Threei}  scalpers win CLF
[15:28] {dolores} will rinse us again?
[15:29] {Threei}  could be, but with half profit secured I am not taking a risk
[15:29] {Threei}  this day can easily turn into one non-stop selloff
[15:30] {dolores} YS
[15:30] {dolores} yes
[15:30] {dolores} if market sells off this thing will follow
[15:31] {dptl} gn all see ya tomorrow
[15:32] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:32] {Will49} bye dp
[15:32] {dptl} :)
[15:33] {Threei}  positive day but I don't feel satisfied
[15:33] {Threei}  let's see if we can find one last play
[15:33] {Will49} like kissin' your sister
[15:39] {dolores} FCX short?
[15:39] {dolores} held for the time being
[15:43] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .35
[15:44] {Threei}  snage to .40 break
[15:44] {Threei}  change
[15:44] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[15:46] {Threei}  stop is tight enough not to ruin the day
[15:52] {Threei}  time's running out LVS, die faster
[15:52] {Threei}  loss of .35 should give us quick dive for a nice finishing scalp
[15:53] {Threei}  oh well
[15:54] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:54] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:55] {dolores} thxs VAD see you tomorrow
[15:56] {scottie} gn all

Nemo's Findings

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Tuesday: Bad news on ISM and Construction spending.  So what did we do?  Well, after some obfuscatory price action, the IWM bolted higher, spy finished slightly red, financials green.  All in all, bad news was bought.

Notice on Tuesday to what levels the price action reacted...

IWM bottomed at the swing high top from August 7, which served as the top of the related fibonacci draw, to which that aqua line at the bottom belongs.  

SPY bottomed, close enough for government work, in the confluence of price action, the Weekly S1, and 38.2 retrace from the most recent swing high.  

FAS retested the low from the 31st, rose and then tested the WPP but could not hold below.  When financials are strong, equities can be strong.

TLT couldn't hold below the confluence of the 50SMA and the WPP.

Coincidences?   I think not...

Which brings us to the tight ranges on Wednesday....mmmmhhh Draghi, the  GS alum that he is, will have made pronouncements by the time the market opens on Wednesday...I'm on record in the trading room, given that GS finished the day at the top of it's range, that we're likely looking at a big gap up on Wednesday...am I full of Taurine Excrement?


Thursday:  And the winner is........me

Although the initial gap up was not as great as I thought, pre market action had IWM right up against that volume overhang in the 82.75 area.  After the open it was "Gap and Go," the market never looked back.

For Beau, here is a graphic of the FCX trade from that day:

I'm not sure it gets any simpler on a trade, or more text book.  The whole number is always a potential inflection level.  You can see the former resistance level at 35.96ish where the arrow points to the stop.

When price action pushed through 36 on high volume, it was immediately pushed back below 36 as signified by the tall wick on the candle.  

Well...Thursday was ridiculously strong, so I was expecting a rebid, that is for price to move back over 36, which it did.  That's where I got long (.03 I think).  Now, FCX was already up strong for the day, why did I think it would go further?  Well, pivot levels had R1 at 36.17, so it really wasn't extended from a pivot range point of view.  I think I even said in the room the break of .10 would be another entry, and then it was just trade management .

Friday:  More of the same...tighter range on the indexes, but there was a rotation where many stocks were up strong with spy breaking through the highs going into the close.


The week that was:

IWM:  Finished at the weekly R4, albeit in what was a reasonably tight range this week

SPY:  Finished at Monthly R1 and above R3...yeah, this was a strong week alright

FAS: topped out at the daily R2 today in between Monthly R1 and R2

TLT:  finished on the weekly S2 

I'm thinking we have further to go, 153 on the spy, but since we're in a gag....risk on...environment, IWM should be leading the way.  It hasn't surpassed the April 2011 high.  I think it likely get's there before we see a pullback.

Of course next week we have the German High Court ruling, so the action could go any number of ways, meander until the decision;  move euphorically higher, and then will it be buy the Euro party, or sell the news?  I'm on record saying they won't trash the whole enchilada...boy, what an epitaph that would make on their gravestones in the local Friedhof, and I'm sure the euro apparatchiks have already figured away around a negative decision.


Anyway....

The week that is:

In our "risk-on" (I want to find the guy who coined that and punch him in the nose) environment, IWM should be leading and it has shown relative strength.  On the chart you will see three dark red lines above the current price action.  Those represent previous swing-highs going back  as far as to 2011.  I would, barring "sell the news" on Wednesday, expect to see all of those eclipsed, with confluence resistance at the 2011 swing high and the WR2, and some at the WR1. 

SPY has been a bit of a relative laggard to IWM as would be expected.  No significant resistance, unless the upper channel trend holds it, until the 147.25-.45 area.

You can almost feel the building euphoria in the market.  Which reminds me, "You want to make the gods laugh?  Tell them your plans?"

Oh, oh...hearing voices in my head...."It's a long way, to the top if you want to Rock'n' Roll"

Market Wrap-Up

Draghi Unveils Bond Buying Plan As Disappointing US Payrolls Tip Scales Toward QE3


- Markets received two big jolts of adrenaline and one big downer this week. On the positive side the ECB outlined the details of its new bond buying program and the Chinese government quietly returned to stimulating its economy by launching several large infrastructure spending plans. ECB President Draghi sketched the broad outlines of the new bond buying program - the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) - all of which were in line with prior press speculation over recent weeks. The US August payrolls report was extremely disappointing: the payroll figures were brutal, with the headline nonfarm, private and manufacturing numbers all widely missing expectations. The overall unemployment rate fell to 8.1% but the decline was for all the wrong reasons, mainly attributable to unemployed individuals dropping out of the workforce, even as weekly hours ticked lower. Analysts believe that the jobs data virtually guarantee another round of easing from the Fed at its Sept 12-13th meeting, either with an outright QE3 launch, or an extension of the low rate pledge to 2015 with a strong hint of QE3 before the end of the year. The renewed talk of central bank intervention sent gold soaring to six months highs above $1,700, and global stock markets saw big gains. For the week, the DJIA gained 1.6%, the Nasdaq rose 2.3%, and the S&P500 added 2.2%, reaching multi-year highs.

- The ECB's new bond buying program held few surprises for markets, but markets were pleased the governing council was able to agree on a full framework for the plan with only one dissenter (Bundesbank chief Weidmann). Analysts cheered three critical components to the plan: there will be no quantitative limits to OMT transactions, purchases will be fully sterilized, and on seniority issues, the ECB accepts the same treatment as private creditors (pari passu). The ECB's insistance that the program adopts "strict conditionality" was more contentious: although the ECB warned it would consider selling bonds if the program's conditions were not met, there was no discussion of what the "conditions" in question actually are, and whether or not they would frighten off the peripheral nations from making use of the program. As expected, the plan will target maturities of up to three years, and after the announcement yields on shorter-dated Italian and Spanish government bonds declined to multi-month lows. The plan provoked outrage in the German press, with Bild calling the plan a "blank check," however Chancellor Merkel praised the plan for its insistence on conditionality.

- China's NDRC unveiled a major new infrastructure spending program this week, including plans for 13 roadway projects and 25 urban transit projects approved yesterday. The total investment outlined over the last two days amounts to CNY1.0T ($157B), or roughly one quarter the size of the 2008/09 stimulus plan. Note that this comes just days before the big August data dump out of Beijing, heightening fears about what the numbers may say about the state of the Chinese economy. Recall that since April, the government has also approved a number of other infrastructure projects, including several airport and energy developments. Today's news sent the Shanghai Composite up approximately 4%, taking it off recent three and a half-year lows. Various industrial commodities surged on Friday on the China news, with copper futures gaining 3.6%, their biggest one-day jump in two months.

- BP's hopes to settle its outstanding legal issues from the Macondo oil spill in 2010 took a hit this week as DOJ prosecutors laid out a legal case for gross negligence against BP. Earlier in the summer there had been talk about a deal, with BP was hoping to pay $15 billion to put the case behind it, while the DoJ was holding out for $25 billion, although the talks do not appear to have been put to bed.

- Two major firms - Fedex and Intel - cut their forecasts for the current quarter due to the current spate of global macroeconomic weakness. Fedex cut its Q1 earnings outlook, warning that profits in the quarter suffered from constrained revenue growth. Intel slashed its Q3 revenue guidance and withdrew its FY12 forecast. The company warned that revenue was weak with customers reducing inventory in the supply chain at a time when they usually increase inventory. Intel also said emerging market demand, an area of strength cited by numerous other IT firms, is slowing.

- Amazon unveiled a new stable of tablet computer and e-reader products, just days ahead of the Apple event, where a new, smaller iPad and the iPhone 5 are expected. Amazon rolled out its improved e-reader, the Kindle Paperwhite, upgraded its existing 7" Kindle Fire tablet with more memory and a better processor, and unveiled a bigger 8.9" Kindle Fire with a high-res screen. Shares of Facebook traded higher midweek after CEO Zuckerberg pledged to not sell any stock for the next 12 months and moved up the share lockup date for employee to Oct 29 from Nov 14. There were also unconfirmed reports that Blackrock's CEO Fink (Blackrock is FB's 6th largest holder) met with a senior Facebook executive to discuss the company's image problems since the IPO fiasco.

- EUR/USD spent most of the week wrestling with the pivotal 1.2635 area, which marked the high in the pair after Chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech and also corresponded to the January 2012 low in the pair. Draghi's discussion of the technical features of the ECB's new and improved bond buying program did not help the euro, and dealers pushed the EUR/USD to session lows throughout the ECB press conference after concluding that there were still too many details missing and too much skepticism about why bond buying should work any better this time around than the previous two SMP programs. The disappointing US payrolls data finally gave the euro some upward momentum, and sent the greenback lower against its major pairs as speculation over possible QE3 chatter resurfaced.

- The USD/JPY pair shot up to its 6-month downtrend line around the 79.30 area on Thursday and Friday as dealers speculated that Japanese export orders are likely to surge ahead of Japan's fiscal-half-year end on Sept 30th. The disappointing US payroll data sent the USD/JPY back to where it was coming into the week, keeping the downtrend line intact.

- On the week marking the one-year anniversary of the SNB imposing a 1.2000 floor in the euro cross, EUR/CHF hit a one-month high above 1.2035 which prompted rumors that perhaps the SNB was buying Euros to defend the floor. As usual, the SNB declined to comment.

TradeTheNews

Sep 7 2012

Catch of the Day - during raging bull market you take aggressive entries and let them run... and this is on top of quite a few nice wins earlier. Caviar on the bread with butter, so to speak.

Overall, great start to September; more volume, more activity, more trades going to 1:3 and farther.

Session Time: Fri Sep 07 00:00:00 2012
[08:44] {nemo} wow, we get passed 84.50 on IWM we're past the WR4...there be dragons
[08:47] {cipher} gm
[08:47] {Threei}  morning cipher
[08:48] {Threei}  I can't decide, wake up or trade sleeping
[08:50] {goryl} gm
[08:53] {nemo} I'd have to go to sleep first to be able to wake up
[08:54] {nemo} oh watched, "The Good, The Bad, and The Weird"   That was entertaining
[08:56] {Threei}  goryl :)
[09:00] {Threei}  missed best trade of the day yesterday...
[09:00] {Threei}  saw the screenshot?
[09:01] {goryl} yes, dbi
[09:01] {jackharry} good morning
[09:01] {Threei}  jack :)
[09:07] {goryl} vad, is there an option in the chat to enable a sound every time u make a post or trade alert?
[09:07] {ese} morning........missed you all yesterday...busy week.........am trying a new tact.......am L FCX pre market .82
[09:07] {Threei}  in mirc, yes
[09:08] {Threei}  morning ese
[09:08] {Threei}  we had fabulous day yesterday...
[09:08] {ese} morning vad
[09:08] {ese} I can see that.........am just looking at stuff now........big up day lots of positive mrkt news i see
[09:09] {Threei}  positive news?? :)
[09:09] {Threei}  the only positive news was ECB promise to start buying bonds - IF you call that positive
[09:10] {Beau} good morning all
[09:10] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:10] {ese} economic news manu #'s up etc etc.........although employment dn today
[09:11] {Threei}  that all meant nothing
[09:11] {scottie} good morning
[09:11] {nemo} wow  db up 15% in two days
[09:11] {Threei}  it was ECB that goosed the market
[09:11] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:11] {ese} missed that one..........what'dthey say
[09:12] {goryl} vad, i can't find it, is it under the menu option?
[09:12] {ese} out fcx .16 +.34
[09:13] {Threei}  are you using mirc to connect the room?
[09:13] {Threei}  they promised to buy sovereign bonds, ese
[09:13] {goryl} mibbit??
[09:13] {Threei}  no, mibbit has no sound alert
[09:14] {ese} that doesn't mean much to me...........what are "sovereign bonds"........hows that diff from the reg ones
[09:14] {goryl} ok
[09:14] {ese} is that something specific to the EU
[09:14] {Threei}  bonds issued by EU countries
[09:14] {ese} ah
[09:15] {Threei}  in other words, they will directly finance governments, while saying they don't
[09:15] {Threei}  and they practically promised to make bonds buying unlimited
[09:15] {Threei}  which means the end of financial system in EU
[09:16] {Threei}  but it allows them to postpone the collapse
[09:16] {Threei}  so they don't care
[09:16] {Threei}  that was brief version of apocalypsys coming
[09:16] {ese} hmmmmmmm............kinda get that
[09:17] {dptl} gm
[09:17] {ese} ddddddddddddddppppppppppppppp!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[09:17] {dptl} :)
[09:18] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:18] {ese} i say that loudly inside my head.....................i like the ring it has
[09:18] {ese} dddddddddddddddddddddddppppppppppppppppppppp!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1................and then it fades
[09:20] {dino} hmmm, fdx, ups, intc all lower this week and we are off to the races...
[09:20] {Threei}  I found better way to say it
[09:20] {Threei}  fiscal and monetary prudence are being defenestrated
[09:21] {ese} behmoths................have to rev up the engines on the sidelines for a bit then get going.........
[09:21] {ese} defenestrated...................whoa............
[09:21] {RonS} gm  ditto whoa...
[09:21] {Threei}  told ya :)
[09:22] {RonS} how do you say that in Russian...lol
[09:22] {dino} vad, how do i get a sound from mirc?
[09:22] {Threei}  or, this indicates that real economy is not going to benefit much from what props the market
[09:22] {Threei}  hot money sloshing around and finding its way to the market - how weill that benefit semis or FDX
[09:22] {Will49} gm
[09:22] {Threei}  will :)
03[09:23] * Looking up Threei user info...
[09:23] {Threei}  dino, it's not sound per se, it's a sound alert when someone you want to follow say something
[09:23] {dino} ok
[09:23] {dino} how do i turn it on?
[09:23] {Threei}  right click on the nick,
[09:24] {Threei}  Ucentral
[09:24] {ese} ok..........so how do i turn off nemo
[09:24] {Threei}  or Info in some versions,
[09:24] {Threei}  Highlight tab
[09:24] {Threei}  Add
[09:24] {Threei}  and it's self-explanatory from there,
[09:24] {Threei}  don't forget to make sure sound is activated
[09:25] {Threei}  under Tools-Options-Sounds-Enable Alerts
[09:26] {goryl} ty
[09:26] {dino} thx
[09:27] {Threei}  here is a good chart
[09:27] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/I79JB
[09:27] {Threei}  quite clear impact of all the money twisting on market,
[09:28] {Threei}  but how does actual econonmy beneits?
[09:29] {dino} six drop
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .85 break
[09:30] {RonS} wow fcx
[09:30] {Threei}  hl
[09:30] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: EMR  .60 break
[09:32] {Threei}  change to .65
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:33] {ese} shoulda held onto that fcx position
[09:33] {cipher} + .48 six thx dino
[09:33] {Threei}  touched 1:1, no secondary entry if missed it
[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
[09:34] {Threei}  change to .35
[09:34] {Threei}  hl
[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:35] {Threei}  1:1
[09:35] {nemo} pay short setting up
[09:36] {Threei}  1:2
[09:36] {Threei}  EMR 1:1
[09:36] {dino} gj yw cipher
[09:37] {nemo} mlnx
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:40] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:41] {Threei}  no worky
[09:43] {nemo} spy at MR1
[09:43] {nemo} gs
[09:43] {nemo} sorry
[09:46] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .90 break
[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[09:46] {ese} L kft
[09:46] {ese} .89
[09:46] {Threei}  target .55 - .60
[09:46] {ese} sorry thats .79
[09:49] {dino} blox
[09:50] {Threei}  first partial here
[09:51] {Threei}  stop to .91
[09:51] {Threei}  Canada has closed its embassy in Iran, will expel all remaining Iranian diplomats from Canada within 5 days - @Reuters
[09:53] {Threei}  second partial here
[09:53] {Threei}  not too shabby for 5 cents risk
[09:53] {Threei}  stop to .85
[09:55] {dino} blox sm l .73
[09:55] {dolores} dont know why could not login
[09:55] {dolores} yesterday the same
[09:55] {dolores} it kocks me off
[09:55] {Threei}  wrong password...
[09:55] {Threei}  missed a few good ones
[09:55] {goryl} awesome trading vad, but i have not idea why you took that trade:)
[09:56] {Threei}  makes two of us
[09:56] {Threei}  stop to .81
[09:56] {nemo} Dolores, sorry missed you're request regarding the meaning of "slog"   It's basically means things will become slow, labored and difficult
[09:56] {dolores} no
[09:56] {dolores} password was fine
[09:56] {dino} cacc getting a bit of pulp, thin
[09:56] {dino} maxy odd
[09:57] {_catfish} so slw was a trade right?  did well on lvs
[09:57] {Threei}  SLW was stopped
[09:58] {_catfish} ok
[09:58] {goryl} lvs looked like a jbe setting up but that was a few min after u took the trade
[09:58] {Threei}  FCX and EMR worked, for 1:2 and 1:1 respectively
[09:58] {dino} pvg sm l .39
[09:58] {robbers} catfish, I think "no worky" means stopped, is that right Three?
[09:59] {Threei}  yes
[09:59] {cipher} IBM L 29
[09:59] {_catfish} got it
[09:59] {cipher} AAPL l.40
[09:59] {_catfish} lvs made up for it and then some
[09:59] {cipher} out aapl .14 +.74
[09:59] {Threei}  it get a bit ahead of itself on a spike from .30 to .90, goryl,
[10:00] {Threei}  paused, formed very nice tight setup, merely 5 cents risk
[10:00] {nemo} rig
[10:00] {Threei}  SPY started hesitating too
[10:01] {Threei}  some setups are not very pronounced but the risk is so small, they are worth playing on that alone
[10:01] {Threei}  Alan Farley even came up with scientifically-sounding name for them
[10:01] {thomcbell} fcx at risk here in my opinion - setup not there
[10:02] {thomcbell} a ton of volume -
[10:02] {Threei}  "risk-based setup" - or during beer conversation you'd call it "for 5 cents stop, just roll the frikin dice" :)
[10:02] {thomcbell} exhaustive volume i think
[10:02] {goryl} ty, it just happens so fast:)
[10:02] {Threei}  that's opening for you
[10:02] {Threei}  they are fast
[10:03] {Threei}  thinking ,.20 break, tbell?
[10:03] {ese} fast would be an understatement in some cases
[10:03] {Threei}  but LVS gave ample time for entry
[10:03] {nemo} rig break of .50 stop under .40
[10:03] {cipher} out ibm .60 +.31
[10:04] {goryl} i got all of them in demo mode of course but i want to learn the logic behind each setup
[10:04] {nemo} two way actually
[10:05] {goryl} Laser if freaky fast:)
[10:05] {dino} he must be assimulated
[10:06] {nemo} with 7 of 9, no problem
[10:06] {dino} indeed
[10:06] {Threei}  lol
[10:06] {dino} maxy sm l .67
[10:08] {nemo} hal
[10:09] {nemo} offering .64 rig
[10:10] {nemo} iwm grinding up probably .40 area
[10:11] {Threei}  oh wow
[10:11] {Threei}  read this
[10:11] {Threei}  White House: August unemployment data shows there is more work to be done but is further evidence economy continuing to recover
[10:11] {Threei}  how do they not gag on their own words??
[10:12] {goryl} they're smokin' hopium:)
[10:12] {nemo} it's their profession to lie
[10:12] {Will49} keep the suckers in the dark
[10:12] {Threei}  let me try that
[10:13] {robbers} Three career choices: 1) use your body...2) use your brain...3) become a politician.
[10:13] {RonS} Joseph Goebbels:  If you tell a lie often enough people believe it
[10:13] {Will49} smokin or lyin'?
[10:13] {Threei}  remember that SLW stop? It was a win actually, we just need some more work on it
[10:13] {nemo} big enough and long enough
[10:14] {Threei}  hmmm... I kinda like it
[10:14] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .65 break
[10:14] {Threei}  hl
[10:15] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[10:15] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:15] {dino} pvg to .79
[10:16] {Threei}  need more work on this FCX winning trade
[10:17] {dolores} still valid?
[10:17] {nemo} algo I follow showing persistent bids under the market
[10:17] {Threei}  no
[10:17] {nemo} and expanding
[10:17] {dolores} ok
[10:18] {thomcbell} fcx crazy must be the xstrata
[10:18] {dolores} they have been hammered so much
[10:18] {dolores} that today picking up
[10:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .75 break hl
[10:19] {dino} yeah, look clf
[10:19] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[10:19] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:21] {Threei}  .80 break should catapult it
[10:21] {dino} blox to .93 thing stalled
[10:22] {dino} pvg to .89
[10:22] {Threei}  1:1
[10:22] {Threei}  play by the book
[10:22] {Threei}  half and trail
[10:23] {nemo} should really fly if it beeaks .90
[10:23] {Threei}  unless you are a scalper in which case my guidance is to be defenstrated
[10:23] {Threei}  this might become new favorite word
[10:24] {nemo} stop on rig is under .60
[10:24] {dino} pvg to .09
[10:25] {dino} out ovg .09, +.70
[10:25] {RonS} gj
[10:25] {Threei}  wtg
[10:25] {dino} ty
[10:26] {cipher} nice dino
[10:28] {dino} thx
[10:30] {nemo} I would think about adding to cat if it breaks .90
[10:30] {nemo} this could be the flush
[10:31] {Threei}  - Germany Chancellor Merkel: Continuing to work on the financial transaction tax (tobin) proposal
[10:31] {Threei}  and here I thought she was a sane one
[10:31] {nemo} both she and sarkozy came out for it last year
[10:31] {_catfish} mini flush and run
[10:32] {nemo} yep, likely a long
[10:32] {Threei}  (US) Goldman economist Hatzius: Aug jobs data today virtually guarantees some kind of easing action next week at Fed meeting (vs prior estimate of a high chance) - CNBC interview- Cyclical sectors are not telling a very positive story, and that justifies more Fed action.
[10:32] {dino} out blox .96, +23
[10:32] {dolores} covered
[10:33] {Threei}  yes... we do it for 4 years straight, and it doesn't work - let's do more of it
[10:33] {nemo} I'm adding to cat
[10:33] {nemo} playing for the break
[10:33] {_catfish} what's your target nemo?
[10:34] {_catfish} just 10c?
[10:34] {nemo} vad...shove a hot poker up cat's ass
[10:34] {Will49} ouch
[10:34] {Threei}  his target is always the same - to get drunk before the day is over
[10:34] {RonS} lol
[10:34] {nemo} like in the movie, loved that scene
[10:34] {nemo} alright bought more cat here
[10:35] {nemo} mhhhh....starting to pucker
[10:35] {Threei}  catfish... nemo often goes for bigger moves
[10:35] {Threei}  he is more patient one
[10:35] {nemo} 1sth hour highs break
[10:35] {nemo} this is a classic setup
[10:35] {Threei}  I would say 88.20 - .30 is very likely
[10:35] {nemo} I didn't take Vad's entry, I saw the high at 9:45
[10:36] {nemo} yeah baby
[10:36] {_catfish} i'm playin it for 88.20 ish
[10:36] {nemo} when I saw that flush and rebid, new it was going
[10:36] {_catfish} and he can screw a donkey all day for all i care if he can trade;)
[10:36] {dino} couple fish talking
[10:36] {nemo} whoa...dino throws out an insult
[10:36] {Threei}  lol
06[10:36] * nemo faints
[10:37] {nemo} partialing here
[10:37] {cipher} ibm l.70
[10:37] {Threei}  ron, in case you missed it earler... nemo wacthed and liked that korean western... you may have waken up a monster
[10:37] {nemo} the weird guy was the best
[10:37] {thomcbell} its like Tarantino
[10:38] {RonS} hmmm...did miss that, glad you liked it
[10:38] {nemo} with a cross of Mel Brooks
[10:38] {nemo} I'm out
[10:38] {nemo} oh well
[10:38] {nemo} made a few
[10:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  CLF  .05 break hl
[10:39] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[10:39] {Threei}  - NYSE volume 162M shares, about 5% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 2.1:1. - NASDAQ volume 435M shares, about 20% above its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.5:1.
[10:39] {Threei}  volume really started picking up
[10:40] {Threei}  CLF target 1:3
[10:40] {_catfish} me to at.95
[10:40] {Threei}  1:1
[10:41] {nemo} frickin rig shook me
[10:41] {nemo} frickin' cat
[10:42] {Threei}  1:2
[10:42] {goryl} mini jbe vad?
[10:42] {Threei}  yup
[10:43] {nemo} should be good to the .70s
[10:43] {Threei}  1:3 baby... nice and easy
[10:43] {goryl} did the scanner pop that out or were u watching the chart?
[10:43] {Threei}  no single pullback, right into target
[10:43] {Threei}  this one was from usual suspects list
[10:43] {nemo} hold to the 70s
[10:43] {Threei}  1:4
[10:43] {goryl} unbelievable vad...:)
[10:43] {Threei}  I am?
06[10:43] * Threei takes a bow
[10:45] {_catfish} nice vad
[10:45] {cc_8} party money
[10:45] {Threei}  ty
[10:46] {cc_8} notice i didnt say beer money
[10:47] {Threei}  cognjac guy?
[10:47] {cc_8} actually these days im into wine
[10:47] {cc_8} i cant handle liquor
[10:47] {Threei}  may I have my shot of hennessy paradis please?
[10:48] {cc_8} vodka is the choice but still get hammered
[10:48] {dino} enjot vodka myself
[10:48] {dino} enjoy
[10:48] {dino} mlnx ?
[10:49] {nemo} I drink wine with breakfast
[10:49] {Threei}  just downgrade today, MLNX
[10:49] {Threei}  nothing significant
[10:49] {cc_8} lol@nemo
[10:49] {nemo} buy
[10:49] {nemo} grape juice
[10:49] {dino} thats all i see, plus intc guidance lowered
[10:49] {cc_8} ..
[10:49] {Threei}  tried dp's and mine favorite dino? Russian Standard
[10:50] {nemo} o.k. clf coming up on target
[10:50] {goryl} belvedere please..
[10:51] {jackharry} Vad... Russia vs Northern Ireland World Cup qualifier starting in 10 minutes....... another CLF type trade would help make up for the hammering we are likely to receive
[10:51] {dino} have to get a bottle
[10:51] {nemo} frickin' cat
[10:51] {Threei}  got it... looking
[10:52] {nemo} offering .68 for last
[10:54] {_catfish} ty lulu
[10:54] {nemo} o.k.  having said that I think it makes it to 39
[10:55] {nemo} mos
[10:57] {nemo} yeah, clf still looking bullish
[10:57] {goryl} vad, today I took all ur trades in the demo mode.  On the 5 winners, I made 8 cents on each trade because of 2 cent slippage on the fill.  However, on the 2 stops, I took a 12 cent loss on each.  Am I doing something wrong?  I'm still making $ but i'm not taking 1:1 on each of the winners...
[10:57] {nemo} IWM just hit Weekly R4 that's amazing
[10:57] {ese} cya monday have a great weekend
[10:57] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:58] {Threei}  goryl, you are not doing anything wrong, it's just worst case scenario
[10:58] {Threei}  not every fill is going to be 2 cents away
[10:58] {goryl} ok, just wanted to confirm, ty
[10:58] {Threei}  they swipe available shares UP to 2 cents away
[10:59] {Threei}  then, those where you are partialing and riding them will more than make up for those slippages
[10:59] {goryl} i'm not sure, maybe the demo mode is causing that much slippage
[11:00] {nemo} you using market orders goryl?
[11:01] {goryl} for the past three days i've been able to catch 99% of ur calls but i take my money at 1:1.  So scalping.  Should i be scaling out vs. scalping?
[11:01] {goryl} i'm using limit orders nemo
[11:01] {Threei}  I can't answer this question...
[11:01] {cipher} mos l.27
[11:02] {Threei}  pick of trading style is a matter of personal preferences
[11:02] {goryl} i understand..
[11:02] {cipher} out mos .33 +.06
[11:02] {Threei}  I like brunettes... can I tell you to like them too?
[11:04] {dino} everybody must find their own edge goryl
[11:05] {nemo} why is lulu up 6 bucks
[11:05] {dino} beat
[11:05] {Threei}  mine is Glenlivet and Hennessy...
[11:05] {dino} no, thats for takig edge off
[11:05] {Threei}  dp is fine with Stolychanya
[11:05] {goryl} I know:) it'll take time
[11:05] {nemo} yechhh
[11:05] {Threei}  but I disagree with him
[11:05] {nemo} Tito's
[11:06] {dino} ddd drop
[11:07] {dino} sm l .73
[11:07] {goryl} vad, how did you pick the target for clf to 1:3?
[11:08] {dptl} qlik? 24 long?
[11:09] {Threei}  no, too narrow
[11:09] {Threei}  you'll hate my answer goryl
[11:09] {Threei}  gut feel
[11:09] {Threei}  nothing scientific
[11:10] {Threei}  when a stock breaks day high and has nothing on the chart from nearest day's, it's uncharted teritory
[11:10] {Threei}  there is nothing to indicate exat target, all you can do is rely on evaluation of its volatility and strength,
[11:10] {Threei}  and those are not exact measurable things
[11:10] {goryl} that's my problem, i over analyze.... damn engineering mind...I'm looking for black and white answers:)
[11:11] {Threei}  you just feel it
[11:11] {Threei}  I know what you mean
[11:11] {nemo} drinking may be the answer
[11:11] {Threei}  engineering background here too
[11:11] {Threei}  but trading is a mix of science and art
[11:11] {Will49} and vermouth
[11:11] {Threei}  that too
[11:12] {Threei}  and art part is not quantifiable
[11:12] {Threei}  some will tell you it ism, and will refer to things like golden ratio, rule of thirds etc
[11:12] {Threei}  but that's science part in art,
[11:12] {Threei}  just like any chart analysis
[11:13] {nemo} tell him about the dead chickens
[11:13] {Threei}  you can put some science in,
[11:13] {Threei}  and it does help
[11:13] {dino} "gut"
[11:13] {Threei}  and then, on top of all that, you look at the T&S,
[11:13] {dino} ddd stop -.30
[11:13] {Threei}  and you just feel that hidden tension
[11:13] {goryl} goats??:)
[11:13] {nemo} the chikens vad...
[11:13] {nemo} goats....mmmmmmhhhhh
[11:13] {Threei}  that tells you this thing is going to, umm, how do you spell it...
[11:14] {Threei}  iksplode
[11:14] {nemo} I'll have to think about that
[11:14] {nemo} frickin' clf, bull flagging
[11:14] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/6rCh9
[11:14] {Threei}  this image should help
[11:14] {nemo} goats are actually cool
[11:15] {goryl} awesome..
[11:15] {dino} vsm l mlnx .05, pulp
[11:15] {dino} wide
[11:15] {Threei}  look at QLIK
[11:15] {Threei}  dp just asked about it,
[11:15] {Threei}  and I see why,
[11:15] {Threei}  chart is a breakout chart
[11:16] {Threei}  now, look at L2, T&S,
[11:16] {Threei}  is there energy or is it a jellyfish?
[11:16] {goryl} jelly
[11:17] {Threei}  there you go
[11:17] {Threei}  can you explain how you feel it?
[11:18] {dino} ddd rinsed
[11:18] {Threei}  I can try but it won't be true really
[11:18] {Threei}  you just feel it
[11:18] {goryl} no rhythm...?
[11:18] {Threei}  it's drifitng aimlessly, there is no drive
[11:18] {nemo} mos maybe
[11:18] {nemo} long
[11:20] {thomcbell} fcx amazingly resilient -
[11:20] {thomcbell} trying to have a bit of a correction now
[11:21] {nemo} oooohhhhh aig
[11:21] {nemo} juicy looking short
[11:21] {nemo} I'd rather see a retraace to .64 or even VWAP
[11:26] {dino} clf sm s .49 stop hod
[11:27] {dptl} gmcr .20 long?
[11:27] {nemo} look downtrend line
[11:28] {Threei}  not sure, dp...
[11:28] {nemo} lvs interesting
[11:28] {Threei}  50/50
[11:28] {nemo} l .17
[11:28] {dptl} in .21
[11:29] {dino} clf stop .55 -.06 mkt reversed
[11:29] {nemo} stop under .10
[11:31] {dptl} stopped
[11:31] {dino} clf rinsed
[11:32] {nemo} offering .28 lvs
[11:33] {nemo} Neil Diamon stage
[11:34] {dino} 50 ma keeps rejecting mnlx
[11:35] {Threei}  just to finish the discussion earlier,
[11:35] {Threei}  look at QLIK again
[11:35] {Threei}  see how it goes absolutely nowhere
[11:35] {Threei}  bobbing up and down 1-2 cents
[11:36] {Threei}  not even enough volume for frikin HFT to scalp it!
[11:38] {Threei}  nice LVS
[11:38] {scottie} HFT ?
[11:38] {Threei}  high frequency trading...
[11:38] {scottie} thanks
[11:39] {Threei}  scarecrow used by those who can't trade to explain to others why they shouldn't either
[11:39] {Will49} :)
[11:41] {Threei}  http://blog.realitytrader.com/2010/07/culprits-and-scapegoats.html
[11:42] {Threei}  - Equity markets are responding calmly to today's August payrolls disappointment, thanks mostly to yesterday's ECB bond news, the Chinese stimulus news and the realization that the news practically guarantees QE3. The payroll numbers were brutal, with the headline nonfarm, private and manufacturing numbers all widely missing expectations.
[11:42] {Will49} Obammy won't like that
[11:42] {Threei}  The overall unemployment rate fell to 8.1% but the decline was for all the wrong reasons, mostly due to unemployed individuals dropping out of the workforce.
[11:43] {Will49} Obammy will like that
[11:43] {Threei}  A Goldman Sachs note suggested that Fed officials will agree to unsterilized, open-ended bond buys
[11:43] {RonS} ...the % would be 11 if the labor force participation rate was at the level at the beginning of the O's ter
[11:44] {Threei}  - Intel slashed its Q3 revenue guidance and withdrew its FY12 forecast this morning. The company warned that revenue was weak due to flagging demand in a challenging macroeconomic environment, with customers reducing inventory in the supply chain at a time when they usually increase inventory. Intel also said emerging market demand, an area of strength cited by numerous other IT firms, is slowing.
[11:44] {RonS} term
[11:44] {Threei}  summer of recovery, my a$$
[11:45] {RonS} 365k quit the labor force last month
[11:46] {RonS} in the meantime "re-elect me", it's Bush's fault...
[11:47] {Will49} I almost puked watching the speeches last night
[11:48] {Threei}  it's amazing... by constant refrain "Romney's policies are Bush policies" they hope to win second election running against Bush
[11:48] {Will49} It's a sad commentary on the state of the nation when the politicians believe that the majority will swallow the bull
[11:48] {RonS} funny thing that left and right commentators panned O's...
[11:48] {Threei}  if they do, that tells you all you need to know about current state of affairs in USA... and its future (hint: USSR's past)
[11:49] {Will49} Ron..were you watching Fox?
[11:50] {Will49} Last night was it for me...no more CNN
[11:50] {RonS} no...just reviewed commentary on drudge, daily caller and breitbart
[11:50] {dptl} how about now gmcr?
[11:50] {Threei}  same dp
[11:50] {Will49} CNN people were gushing in praise
[11:50] {Threei}  not delighted
[11:50] {RonS} wish Charles Krauthammer could be Prez...
[11:51] {thomcbell} lvs nice return on investment had u bought that dreadful earnings report
[11:51] {nemo} Ride come on baby, ride
[11:51] {RonS} hey Will, haven't you heard...noone watches CNN anymore...
[11:51] {nemo} LVS baby....
[11:52] {Will49} I'm the last one I guess
[11:52] {Threei}  from cinference organizers: "On Friday, with the extremely popular Vad Graifer teaching his trading methods,"...
[11:52] {Threei}  me is extremely popular
[11:52] {Threei}  you turned the lights off leaving, will?
[11:52] {Will49} eggsactly
[11:53] {Threei}  questionable spelling...
[11:53] {Threei}  eqzaktly
[11:53] {nemo} Ipm partialing .70
[11:56] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .60 break
[11:56] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[11:56] {dptl} lol gmcr
[11:56] {Threei}  DNC chair just said that one of three big ideas offered by Obama was adding 1 million manufacturing jobs
[11:57] {Threei}  I think they confuse idea with wishful thinking
[11:57] {robbers} Maybe they'll be manufacturing BS.
[11:57] {robbers} Oh, wait, that's the job of politicians.
[12:02] {nemo} stop for last under .50
[12:05] {RonS} he could get 3 million jobs...kill the epa...
[12:08] {nemo} out lvs
[12:11] {dino} you want a few million more jobs, ease up on drilling restricted areas
[12:16] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM Samaras: Greek people have reached their limit with austuerity; economic recovery is key for meeting budget targets- EU Pres Van Rompuy: had constructive talks with Samaras; Greek coalition govt has promised to follow through on its agreements. - Greece must push ahead against vested interests in reform measures, crisis today is no longer a Greek one, collective action is necessary.
[12:18] {RonS} "collective action" = Greece collects more loans...
[12:18] {Threei}  and then exits
[12:19] {Threei}  now, Spain should hurry and get some loans oo - and exit while ahead
[12:19] {dino} i think thats what the plan is
[12:19] {Threei}  and it must hurry, before Greece does that
[12:26] {goryl} have a good weekend everyone
[12:26] {Threei}  covered LVS?
[12:26] {goryl} thanks vad,  can't wait till monday:)
[12:26] {Threei}  :)
[12:26] {Threei}  have a good weekend
[12:27] {thomcbell} bought small slw
[12:27] {thomcbell} on 36.38 break
[12:32] {Threei}  anyone played LVS short?
[12:32] {Threei}  cute clean setup
[12:33] {scottie} yes, played it in the demo
[12:33] {scottie} nice play
[12:33] {scottie} Learning to use Laser these days.
[12:35] {scottie} switching from DDXtra
[12:37] {RonS} ddd...death...
[12:38] {scottie} :)
[12:43] {Threei}  are you better off than you were 4 trades ago?
[12:45] {scottie} as usual, slowly learning
[12:45] {thomcbell} fcx an absolute beast
[12:45] {thomcbell} comedy
[12:47] {thomcbell} slw 1:1
[12:48] {thomcbell} targeting 36.70
[13:04] {Threei}  president, summing up his auto industry achievements:
[13:04] {Threei}  �Now I want to do the same thing with manufacturing jobs, not just in the auto industry, but in every industry."
[13:05] {RonS} logical conclusion: government takeover of all manufacturing...
[13:08] {Threei}  and having unions run it
[13:09] {RonS} ...what could go wrong?
[13:09] {Threei}  Those who don't learn the history are doomed to repeat it. Those who do learn it are doomed to watch helplessly how those who don't are repeating it
[13:10] {RonS} George Santayana?
[13:10] {Threei}  no idea
[13:12] {nemo} among others
[13:13] {dino} bnny giong nuts
[13:13] {RonS} actually run by a former wall street lady who seems nice...
[13:14] {nemo} sleeping
[13:14] {Will49} cc_9  PM please?
[13:15] {scottie} cc_8 has received a promotion from Will
[13:15] {Threei}  lol
[13:15] {Will49} my only friend
[13:16] {Threei}  I just wanted to say something about you needing to get out more but then realized my only friend is nemo... so I better shut up
[13:16] {Will49} anyway, he'd have to serve some time as a cabinet minister first
[13:21] {RonS} whoa pphm
[13:27] {dolores}  -- Interim Data from Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial Presented at Late-Breaking Plenary Session at Leading Oncology Symposium -- Data Show Statistically Significant Improvement in Overall Survival for Patients Receiving Bavituximab Plus Docetaxel Versus Docetaxel Alone -- Clinical Data Strongly Support Advancing Program into Phase III Clinical Develop
[13:28] {dolores} PPHM
[13:29] {RonS} small cell lung cancer...
[13:30] {nemo} wish they had that for my mother
[13:34] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/3nJU3
[13:48] {dolores} Funny CLF and FCX same price at the same time
[14:07] {dolores} except  CLF seems much stronger
[14:07] {dolores} nice call from UBS
[14:09] {dino} value added
[14:11] {dino} abmd sm l .76
[14:14] {Will49} market up or down into close?...what's the consensus
[14:20] {dino} up
[14:21] {dino} abmd to .06
[14:23] {Will49} tks dino,  know we don't make predictions here but was just wondering
[14:23] {dino} out abmd .14, +.38
[14:23] {dino} np will, just gut feeling
[14:23] {Will49} what you experienced guys thought
[14:24] {dolores} CLF on its way to closing the gap
[14:24] {dolores} breaking highs again
[14:24] {dino} mlnx sm l .00
[14:26] {nemo} vwap run dino?
[14:26] {dino} thats what i'm seeing
[14:28] {thomcbell} mww
[14:28] {thomcbell} wicked afternoon
[14:29] {Threei}  Top Congressional Leaders Are A Little Less Disliked
[14:29] {Threei}  klol
[14:30] {Will49} like the economy getting a little better
[15:01] {nemo} BIDU
[15:01] {nemo} l .18
[15:01] {nemo} got .17
[15:02] {nemo} stop is .05ish
[15:02] {nemo} I have a wile e. coyote feel about this one
[15:03] {nemo} partialling .45
[15:03] {nemo} maybe not
[15:05] {nemo} oh oh
[15:08] {nemo} scratching
[15:35] {Threei}  stall is practically whole day long today
[15:35] {Beau} have a good weekend all.
[15:36] {Threei}  you too beau
[15:36] {Threei}  good day, even though inactive afternoon
[15:39] {dolores} yes I s CLf but covered too soon
[15:39] {dolores} would have been great!
[15:43] {nemo} just found out I can link my trading platform to Freestockcharts   woodness
[15:44] {dptl} you use laser nemo?
[15:44] {nemo} Takion
[15:45] {dptl} cute...as Vad would say :)
[15:46] {scottie} ok, have a great weekend all, see you monday
[15:46] {Threei}  you too scottie
[15:46] {Threei}  ok guys, very decent week
[15:47] {Threei}  encouraging start to Sept
[15:47] {Threei}  with more to come
[15:47] {Threei}  have a great weekend, see you Monday
[15:47] {dptl} good weekend all
[15:53] {dino} calling it a week, thx all
[15:53] {dolores} bye guys have agreat weekend !
[15:53] {dolores} thxs !!!!!