Wednesday, June 20, 2012

June 20 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  )

We had somewhat hectic morning wirh server migration and related DNS issues, so with connection problems and running reserve room the script is somewhat distorted. When things got fixed though we had fairly decent day. even with FOMC etc.


Session Time: Wed Jun 20 00:00:00 2012

[09:23] {Beau} good morning
[09:24] {Threei}  hi
[09:24] {Beau} had big time trouble logging in
[09:24] {Beau} irc problems??
[09:24] {scottie} gm
[09:25] {scottie} couldn't log in with mibbit, using mirc
[09:26] {Threei}  we will have to use reserve chatroonm for the time being
[09:26] {Threei}  mibbit guys can't connect
[09:28] {Beau} at least nemo is here to keep you straight
[09:28] {Threei}  he is both here and there
[09:28] {Threei}  connect reserve room for now beau
[09:29] {scottie} how?
[09:29] {Beau} ?
[09:29] {Threei}  (edited link)
[09:31] {Threei}  just go to this link guys
[09:34] {dptl} test
[09:36] {nemo} tna worth a try here
[09:36] {nemo} long .30
[09:37] {nemo} stop .18
[09:37] {nemo} partial .44
[09:38] {nemo} stop to .28
[09:38] {nemo} out
[09:39] {nemo} spy going lower
[09:39] {nemo} I'm going to regret that
[09:40] {Chipper} better
[09:40] {Chipper} hi everyone
[09:41] {nemo} everyone isn't here
[09:42] {nemo} X still got a buyer
[09:43] {Threei}  crap... mibbit still not working
[09:45] {KSystems} good it happened today
[09:45] {nemo} warum?
[09:45] {KSystems} in 4 days the old server will be switched off for good
[09:45] {KSystems} would have taken me hours or days then :-/
[09:45] {KSystems} hey nemo
[09:45] {nemo} ahh...versteh
[09:45] {nemo} Gruss dich
[09:45] {KSystems} :)
[09:45] {Threei}  so the transition will be automatic or requires some action on our parrt?
[09:46] {KSystems} right now everything should be creamy again
[09:46] {KSystems} rest depends on how long the individual ISPs need to get the new DNS records
[09:46] {nemo} Das geht nicht auf Englisch
[09:46] {Threei}  OK, you tried mibbit?
[09:46] {KSystems} haha i know
[09:46] {KSystems} trying to push a new idiom to english
[09:46] {KSystems} enough of the crap is traveling in MY direction, too
[09:46] {nemo} wie sagt man auf Deutsch?
[09:47] {KSystems} cremig
[09:47] {KSystems} mibbit is basically the same
[09:47] {nemo} nicht Sahnig? ;-)
[09:47] {Threei}  still refuses to connect for me
[09:47] {KSystems} no nemo ;)
[09:47] {KSystems} whats the link?
[09:47] {Threei}  http://widget04.mibbit.com/?settings=1751cb31976f0adcb5507411d8ee92ac&server=irc.jastech.de&channel=%23floor%2C%23discussions&promptPass=true
[09:49] {KSystems} thx
[09:52] {nemo} whole lotta' nothing going on think I'll get drunk, and sober up by the fed announcement
[09:54] {dptl} test
[09:54] {KSystems} I started to brew my own beer a week ago
[09:54] {KSystems} this is gonna rock
[09:55] {nemo} BraumeisterK
[10:00] {dino} test
[10:00] {nemo} h dino
[10:00] {dino} gm
[10:00] {Threei}  dino, you on mirc?
[10:01] {Beau} I am
[10:01] {dptl} am i here?
[10:01] {Threei}  no dp
[10:01] {dino} yes
[10:01] {KSystems} Llamabot??
[10:01] {Threei}  last I saw you was in Antarctica
[10:01] {dptl} lol
[10:01] {dino} had trouble again
[10:01] {Threei}  with two curte penguins
[10:02] {Threei}  cute
[10:02] {dino} lol
[10:02] {Threei}  I asked you to introduce me to one, you refused... I am not talking to you since then
[10:02] {dino} 2 in the hand ya konow
[10:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .10 break
[10:03] {Threei}  If holds  35
[10:03] {Threei}  when is that mibbit going to get it... running two rooms is killing me
[10:06] {Threei}  missed LVS short
[10:07] {Threei}  FCX invalidated for now
[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .25 break
[10:09] {Threei}  change to .30 break
[10:10] {nemo} now have trend support on iwm
[10:10] {dino} lqdt?
[10:10] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:10] {KSystems} ahh
[10:11] {Threei}  no fresh news dino
[10:11] {nemo} at support
[10:12] {KSystems} say something vad
[10:12] {Threei}  something
[10:12] {KSystems} wow
[10:12] {nemo} lech mich im Arsch
[10:13] {Threei}  cool, floor mirroring is back
[10:13] {KSystems} jeez nemo
[10:13] {KSystems} your behavior is still the same!!
[10:13] {nemo} verzeihen Sie mir
[10:13] {dino} lqdt sm l .13
[10:14] {nemo} spready
[10:14] {dino} out .53, +.40
[10:14] {Threei}  no worky LVS
[10:14] {Threei}  daniel, #floor should work for you now
[10:14] {nemo} nice buy right at support dino
[10:14] {dino} ugh too soon
[10:14] {dino} ty
[10:15] {nemo} yeah, look for it to bounce between 51.70 and 52.50
[10:15] {nemo} then short it again
[10:15] {nemo} 51.50 now
[10:16] {dino} chart looks up imo
[10:17] {dino} buy pullback to 50.70s
[10:17] {nemo} watch the 20 and 40 SMA
[10:17] {nemo} got vwap around 52.60
[10:18] {nemo} hehehe
[10:18] {nemo} too spready for my tastes though
[10:18] {dino} sm l .58
[10:19] {KSystems} ok then
[10:19] {KSystems} need to get back to work then
[10:19] {KSystems} good luck!
[10:19] {dino} out .08, +.50
[10:19] {Threei}  thanks KS!
[10:20] {KSystems} :)
[10:21] {Threei}  LVS rinsed... bastardo
[10:21] {dino} feels like retest lod coming lqdt
[10:23] {dino} damn, missed it
[10:24] {nemo} 51.90 next level
[10:24] {Threei}  whew, mibbit is back up
[10:27] {Threei}  OK... we are fully back
[10:27] {cipher} l aapl .01
[10:27] {Threei}  sorry about this mess in the morning guys
[10:28] {Threei}  happens about once a year
[10:29] {nemo} o.k. you can make it up to us by 10 1:5 calls in a row
[10:29] {Threei}  on it
[10:29] {Threei}  coming right up
[10:29] {dino} lqdt sm l .95
[10:30] {nemo} don't like those tails dino
[10:30] {dino} hit that wrong
[10:30] {nemo} had a lower high
[10:30] {dino} out .65 -.30
[10:31] {dino} new low
[10:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .70 break
[10:31] {Threei}  hl
[10:31] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[10:33] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:33] {cipher} l lqdt .78
[10:33] {cipher} out 1/2 .13
[10:35] {nemo} iwm broke trend
[10:35] {cipher} out 1/4 .31
[10:36] {dino} gj
[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[10:38] {Threei}  stop under .30, target 1:2
[10:41] {Threei}  let's trail to .34
[10:41] {Threei}  move a bit more laborous than I'd like to see
[10:41] {nemo} double bottom here
[10:43] {dino} lqdt sm l .75
[10:44] {cipher} out last piece lqdt 50.89 +1.11
[10:44] {cipher} thx dino
[10:44] {Threei}  wtg
[10:44] {dino} beauty
[10:44] {Beau} great management c
[10:44] {cipher} ty
[10:44] {Threei}  SPY looks very tempting for 135.40 break
[10:45] {Threei}  if that happens TZA should be golden
[10:45] {Threei}  worth 6 cents risk
[10:46] {_daniel} time to go for me now. thanks Vad and nice to read you all today. will connect tomorow. cya!
[10:46] {dino} cya dan
[10:46] {Threei}  take care daniel, tomorrow will be normal day :)
[10:46] {_daniel} c u post fomc then :)
[10:47] {Threei}  die SPY
[10:47] {Threei}  lose that .40
[10:49] {Threei}  (EU) Finland PM rejects calls to use the ESM and EFSF programs to purchase Govt bonds- Note: Yesterday Germany Govt officials denied contemplating using the bailout programs to purchase Govt bonds and bring down yields
[10:50] {nemo} pot .61
[10:50] {nemo} stop .54
[10:50] {Threei}  this should be good for market to drop
[10:50] {nemo} market dropping
[10:51] {Threei}  need this .40 support to give up
[10:51] {dino} out lqdt .60, +.85
[10:52] {Threei}  nice
[10:52] {dino} thx
[10:54] {cipher} cat s .60
[10:56] {cipher} cov 1/2 .45
[10:56] {nemo} 1/2 out .70
[10:56] {cipher} COV 1/4 .33
[10:56] {Threei}  finally
[10:57] {Threei}  1:1 close enough, half out
[10:57] {nemo} out in full .70 spy dropping
[10:57] {Threei}  stop to .38
[10:58] {cipher} cov last piece cat .29 +.31
[10:58] {nemo} well, that was stupid on my part
[11:00] {nemo} pot
[11:00] {nemo} sorry
[11:07] {nemo} Interesting, both spy and IWM are sitting just above WR1
[11:12] {dino} .
[11:14] {dino} out lqdt 55 calls, 2.35, +.40
[11:15] {cipher} nice dino
[11:15] {dino} ty, trying to tweak things
[11:15] {Beau} gj dino
[11:16] {dino} :)
[11:18] {cipher} lqdt l.12
[11:18] {nemo} btw...lqdt topped at 38.2 retrace of this drop
[11:18] {Beau} excellent cipher
[11:18] {dino} wtfg cipher
[11:19] {cipher} out .98 -.14
[11:21] {nemo} de might be a short
[11:25] {nemo} dead til Ben
[11:25] {Threei}  looks this way
[11:35] {_dolores} checking do you read me?
[11:35] {cc_8} i read
[11:35] {nemo} oh damn...I'll have to be polite
[11:35] {cipher} hi dolores
[11:35] {Threei}  hi dolores
[11:36] {_dolores} hello thanks
[11:36] {nemo}  is that dolores, or los doleres?
[11:36] {_dolores} for the trial
[11:36] {_dolores} dolores
[11:36] {nemo} yep, gotta' be polite...see ya' in a week vad...
[11:36] {dptl} lol
[11:37] {Threei}  lol nemo
[11:37] {Threei}  never mind him dolores
[11:37] {nemo} guess it's back to the cave, my blanky and teddy bear
[11:37] {Threei}  he is bearable when you get to know him... just barely but still
[11:37] {nemo} bunny might get jealous...check the teddy bear
[11:37] {nemo} she's got teeth...nasty
[11:38] {Threei}  until FOMC, if any setup appears let's consider it a scalp
[11:38] {Threei}  things are locked in a very narrow range and likely to stay this way
[11:38] {nemo} look at DE
[11:39] {nemo} that's a screaming long at any other time
[11:40] {_dolores} LQDT nice comeback
[11:41] {Threei}  guys traded the hell out of it today
[11:41] {Threei}  dino and cipher
[11:41] {nemo} yeah, the diaper traders
[11:43] {nemo} look at de
[11:43] {nemo} forming support at .40 too
[11:44] {nemo} big offer
[11:44] {Threei}  true but I hate breakouts right now
[11:44] {Threei}  if it puilled back to about .25, I'd be happy to grab it
[11:45] {nemo} yes, that's fib support too
[11:45] {nemo} it's setting up for the bald clam though
[11:45] {dino} "diaper traders" lol
[11:45] {nemo} do I have to be polite about him?
[11:45] {Threei}  lol
[11:45] {dino} no
[11:45] {nemo} phewww
[11:46] {Threei}  nemo... the day you become genuinely polite is likely to be the day when supervolcano in Yellowstone goes off
[11:46] {nemo} Hey Raven, do me a favor, don't sit above me
[11:46] {Raven} lol
[11:46] {Raven} I will restrain meself
[11:47] {nemo} GS is at the bottom of it's range
[11:47] {nemo} TY
[11:50] {cc_8} anyone like adbe short?
[11:51] {dino} no, chart looks up
[11:52] {nemo} yeah, but Benny coming
[11:53] {nemo} why it sell off?
[11:53] {dino} ben's at 2:15 right?
[11:53] {dino} long way off
[11:53] {nemo} 12:15 announcement
[11:54] {nemo} Goldman on lows, I don't think it will be good news for the market
[11:54] {nemo} The Vampire Squid is usually a good tell
[11:55] {dino} oh
[11:55] {nemo} they're at the bottom of their range
[11:58] {nemo} warm here today, my computer is not liking it
[11:58] {_dolores} ETH breaking down
[12:00] {Threei}  US markets are flat this morning on very light volume as traders sit tight ahead of the FOMC decision. Analysts generally expect the Fed to authorize some sort of QE at today's meeting, with the most betting on a short-term extension of Operation Twist (by three or six months).
[12:01] {nemo} that's priced in
[12:01] {nemo} doing nothing isn't, nor is a bigger QE
[12:01] {Threei}  DE
[12:01] {Threei}  nemo, it's in my pullback zone
[12:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  DE  .25 break
[12:01] {dino} 100 degrees f here
[12:02] {dino} funny sunday it was only 70
[12:02] {nemo} .36 is the 40 and backside trend test
[12:02] {nemo} I think it's galactic warming dino
[12:02] {Threei}  If holds  .15
[12:04] {nemo} altgernative is this db as stop
[12:04] {nemo} oops there goes spy
[12:05] {dino} still on cycles theory
[12:05] {nemo} ?
[12:06] {dino} weather goes in cycles
[12:06] {nemo} oh, yeah
[12:06] {nemo} Yin/Yang kinda' thing
[12:06] {nemo} I wish human stupidity were subject to that, then I'd have some hope
[12:08] {nemo} iwm at daily pivot
[12:08] {nemo} spy aw WR1
[12:09] {nemo} this is a high probability long for iwm or spy  NORMALLY
[12:09] {nemo} well, my definition of normal
[12:11] {nemo} DE dropped back to just above Vwap
[12:12] {nemo} which is at yesterday's close
[12:13] {nemo} which also has two coincident fib supports
[12:13] {nemo} and we're waiting on the frickin' clam
[12:14] {nemo} I'd say good possibility of a bounce near the whole
[12:16] {nemo} was .04 close enough
[12:24] {dino} ben's getting like obama, late as usual
[12:24] {nemo} not good news
[12:25] {nemo} GS was the tell...imo..armchair quarterbacking and all
[12:26] {Threei}  (FR) French govt is facing a �10B deficit in the 2012 budget - Le Figaro- Government is looking at "emergency measures" relating to taxation to bridge the gap.
[12:27] {dino} here we go again
[12:27] {dino} 10b will turn into 100b
[12:27] {nemo} that, and it's amazing how much debt needs to be rolled over throughout Europe just in the next 3 months
[12:28] {nemo} figures...we just raised bullet prices 20%
[12:29] {nemo} X is going up
[12:31] {nemo} wow
[12:31] {nemo} throw the women and children overboard
[12:31] {cipher} omg
[12:31] {nemo} sorry dolores
[12:31] {Threei}  FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25% (AS EXPECTED):
[12:31] {cipher} lucky I just sold tna
[12:32] {Threei}  :EXTENDS OPERATION TWIST THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR
[12:32] {Threei}  there
[12:32] {Threei}  thsat's the key phrase
[12:33] {Threei}  TZA, watching for entry around .60
[12:33] {nemo} cipher, would you clean off that horsehoe and send it to me
[12:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .60 break hl
[12:33] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[12:34] {cipher} TZA L .56
[12:35] {Threei}  half out
[12:35] {Threei}  1:1
[12:35] {cipher} OUT 1.2 .70
[12:35] {cipher} 1/2
[12:36] {Threei}  stop to .59
[12:36] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[12:36] {Threei}  .78
[12:36] {cipher} out in full
[12:36] {cipher} thx vad
[12:36] {Threei}  stop to .65
[12:37] {Threei}  welcome sir
[12:37] {Threei}  done
[12:37] {cipher} we played it like a violin
[12:38] {Threei}  yup, nice to see the entry in advance
[12:38] {cipher} made an exception
[12:38] {cipher} I don't usually do it
[12:38] {Threei}  .50 - .60 zone was a very clear support for a bounce back to high
[12:38] {cipher} but fast market
[12:39] {cipher} got out of tna seconds before anouncement
[12:40] {nemo} iwm bottomed at MPP, spy .04 above it
[12:41] {nemo} frickin jcp keeps going
[12:43] {nemo} refinancing the long curve with the short curve...one would think that's fiscal suicide
[12:43] {Beau} .13 on tza thx vad
[12:43] {dino} indeed, should be doing the opposite
[12:43] {Threei}  welcome
[12:46] {Threei}  no clarity, sitting on a sideline for now
[12:53] {dino} same
[12:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[12:53] {Threei}  hl
[12:53] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[12:57] {Threei}  Invalidated
[12:59] {Threei}  (EU) German Chancellor Merkel: EFSF bond buying not being debated at this time; There is possibility of buying bonds on secondary market through EFSM and ESM
[13:00] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Van Rompuy is said to be planning to present at June 28-29 summit a "euro blueprint" including plans to issue "short-term bills" - financial press
[13:00] {Threei}  headline football
[13:04] {cipher} lqdt l .03
[13:07] {thomcbell} holy xmas slw
[13:08] {Threei}  lol, almost anything
[13:09] {dino} gld sm l .00
[13:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .10 break hl
[13:09] {Threei}  If holds  19
[13:10] {Threei}  has to be a pullback time
[13:10] {dino} gld stop -.10
[13:10] {Threei}  1:1 easy
[13:10] {scottie} tza +.10 ty
[13:10] {Threei}  :)
[13:11] {Threei}  that was kind of taking candy from a baby
[13:11] {Threei}  nemo's play
[13:11] {cipher} out lqdt .90 -.13
[13:17] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .45 break
[13:17] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[13:18] {Threei}  target 1:2
[13:20] {Threei}  let's trail FCX to .51
[13:20] {Threei}  held under .50 on bounce, time to tighten risk
[13:21] {Threei}  want to keep it as safe as possible today
[13:27] {Threei}  TZA 1:2, out
[13:27] {Threei}  ok FCX, your turn
[13:30] {nemo} spy iwm look like bull flags
[13:30] {nemo} like that flash bid?
[13:30] {Threei}  and a little double bottom...
[13:31] {Threei}  could be
[13:31] {Threei}  but if FCX loses .40, it should drop like a dress on a prom night
[13:31] {nemo} if it drops .40 just a little concern about that tail at 1:00
[13:33] {Threei}  aww TZA
[13:33] {dino} lol
[13:33] {Threei}  out too soon
[13:33] {Threei}  give up already FCX
[13:33] {Threei}  good girl
[13:34] {Threei}  1:1
[13:34] {Threei}  half out
[13:35] {scottie} +.10 ty Vad
[13:35] {Threei}  :)
[13:35] {Threei}  with all the morning nervousness caused mostly by tech mess and partially by FOMC, turns out a nice day
[13:36] {cipher} lqdt l .16
[13:37] {Threei}  FCX 1:2 target hit, over and out
[13:45] {thomcbell} nice
[13:45] {Threei}  ty
[13:59] {_dolores} ?
[13:59] {Threei}  ?
[13:59] {Threei}  got a question, dolores?
[13:59] {_dolores} checking if was connected
[13:59] {_dolores} sais away
[13:59] {_dolores} said
[13:59] {_dolores} thxs
[14:00] {Threei}  k
[14:00] {Threei}  US) FOMC UPDATED ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR JUNE MEETING: LOWERS GDP FORECASTS ** Economic Forecast: - GDP: - 2012 GDP % (2.4-2.9% prior) - 2013 GDP % (2.7-3.1 prior) - 2014 GDP % (3.1-3.6% prior) - Unemployment: - 2012 8-8.2% (7.8-8.0% prior) - 2013 7.5-8.0% (7.3-7.7% prior) - 2014 7-7.7% (6.7-7.4% prior)
[14:01] {Threei}  doesn't look too friendly to sitting president
[14:02] {_dolores} read today he was slightly ahead on the polls
[14:02] {Threei}  deopends on who is doing polling
[14:02] {Threei}  Rasmussen has him slightly down
[14:02] {_dolores} yes !!!!
[14:02] {_dolores} probbly government
[14:02] {Threei}  and Rasmussen is one of the most accurate
[14:02] {_dolores} was in bloomberg
[14:02] {nemo} they should elect me dictator
[14:03] {Threei}  as far as I remember, bloomberg numbers are based on registered voters, while rasmusen's - on likely voters
[14:03] {_dolores} LQDT trying to hold 52
[14:04] {nemo} got fib support around .70
[14:04] {nemo} and Benny in 10
[14:04] {Threei}  yes, press-congerence by average-sized ben
[14:05] {Threei}  thought of Big ben first, then decided, nah, this one is average-sized
[14:05] {nemo} we bust his stones, but he seems like a very nice fellow
[14:05] {nemo} then again, he does swim with the sharks
[14:05] {nemo} and the Vampire Squid
[14:06] {Threei}  I don't doubt I'd enjoy a beer with him... doesn't mean I like his policies
[14:06] {nemo} It's just so hard for me to say anything nice about a person...sigh
[14:08] {nemo} I don't think this bottle is gonna' make it to my social visit on Saturday
[14:08] {nemo} interesting wedge on IWM and SPY
[14:10] {thomcbell} what timeframe nemo
[14:11] {thomcbell} daily?
[14:11] {thomcbell} could make the case it was an abc corrective wave 2
[14:11] {nemo} shorts covering for the clam
[14:16] {Threei}  LOL... is it Russia here or what: "bear reportedly struck by a car in Colwood"
[14:16] {Threei}  wait, it wasn'r polar bear... not Russia
[14:17] {Threei}  yeah, confirmed... black bear
[14:19] {Threei}  Conservation and police officers are trying to locate it, traffic blocked
[14:19] {Threei}  fun...
[14:22] {Threei}  Q/A: - Fed was perhaps too optimistic earlier in the economic recovery, outlook has changed, economy has faced additional headwinds to growth
[14:39] {nemo} spy gonna dump I think
[14:41] {Threei}  some more drifting, then let's try to get some closing plays, but feels like you are right about direction
[14:42] {nemo} IWM is just above pivot
[14:42] {nemo} SPY sitting on WR1 which is smack in the middle of day's range
[14:43] {nemo} definite maybe
[14:44] {dino} 07 all red
[14:51] {nemo} bounce setups here
[14:55] {Threei}  I'd rather look for shorts into bounce
[14:55] {nemo} I'd rather look for what's there
[14:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[14:56] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[14:56] {Threei}  tiny risk
[14:56] {nemo} iwm at pivot with Wr1 directly above
[14:57] {nemo} Wr1 in spy another .10 cents
[14:58] {dino} cern drop
[14:58] {Threei}  half out
[14:59] {Threei}  like fish in a barrel
[15:00] {scottie} + .10 ty
[15:00] {Threei}  :)
[15:01] {dino} sm l .51
[15:01] {Threei}  OK, I went over ben's speech
[15:01] {Threei}  here is a gist:
[15:01] {dino} out cern .84, +.33
[15:02] {Threei}  wtg
[15:02] {dino} ty
[15:02] {Threei}  Europe will blow up, we can't do antyhing to prevent it, we need dry powder to soften the blow when it cmes, so we don't do anything now but stand ready to act when the need is the greatest
[15:03] {dino} who said that?
[15:03] {Threei}  Ben... not in these words of cpurse, that my run at distilling his speech
[15:03] {dino} ok
[15:07] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[15:11] {dino} cern sm l .91
[15:13] {Threei}  out on a trail
[15:13] {Threei}  not bad for 6 cents risk
[15:16] {dino} cern to flat
[15:17] {dino} out
[15:17] {dino} mkt hit air pocket
[15:17] {dino} -59 to -79 in second
[15:18] {Threei}  uh oh
[15:18] {Threei}  thr wolrd is ending as we speak:
[15:18] {Threei}  Apple Inc Apple confirms some iCloud outtages; Some users reporting they cannot access their content - CNBC
[15:19] {Threei}  hpw to I habve my iBreakfast without my iToaster, iCoffeemaker and iLoo
[15:21] {dptl} got to go ...gn all
[15:21] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:21] {scottie} gn
[15:21] {dino} take care guys
[15:21] {scottie} not leaving yet, was saying gn to dp
[15:22] {dino} lol
[15:22] {Threei}  too late - you'll have to say "hello" now
[15:23] {scottie} lol
[15:24] {Threei}  trying to determine the last play... bounce or breakdown
[15:24] {Threei}  my inclonation is a breakdown...
[15:27] {Threei}  bounces instead
[15:27] {Threei}  waiting for a setup
[15:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .80 break
[15:38] {Threei}  stop .73
[15:39] {nemo} spy riding the 50 sma
[15:41] {Threei}  no go
[15:44] {dino} ugh cern, would've worked well
[15:53] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
[15:53] {Threei}  I believe we handkled this day well
[15:53] {Threei}  despite FOMC and morning server madness
[15:53] {dino} 3i, do i just hit the upper x to close mirc?
[15:53] {Threei}  KS was on a ball fixing it in record time
[15:54] {scottie} 5 for 8 as far as I'm concerned
[15:54] {Threei}  yes... but if you leave computer running, just leave mirc running too
[15:54] {dino} ok
[15:54] {dino} gn all and thx for ideas
[15:54] {scottie} day off tomorrow, see you friday
[15:55] {Threei}  have a great evening everyone
[15:55] {_jackharry} gn and thanks

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

June 19 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  


Another strong day with 5 wins out of 7 calls, although morning was pretty much the focus of activity - just one trade in the afternoon.


Session Time: Tue Jun 19 00:00:00 2012
[09:12] {scottie} gm
[09:12] {Threei}  morning scottie
[09:16] {dptl} gm
[09:16] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:17] {Beau} good morning
[09:17] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:26] {_jackharry} good morning everyone
[09:26] {Threei}  jack :)
[09:26] {Threei}  not very clear opening so far
[09:27] {Threei}  skipping couple minutes to gauge the mood
[09:27] {ese} morning
[09:27] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:27] {ese} too bad i didn't hold onto Rio until this morning
[09:28] {Threei}  - Bank of Spain (BOS) asked auditors to delay their reports in order to conduct a more thorough study. The central bank asked the four auditors to delay their reports until after the summer instead of by July 31st
[09:28] {Threei}  I guess to give them time to admire the bank's strength properly
[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  35 break
[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .75 break
[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[09:35] {Threei}  not liking JPM
[09:35] {Threei}  no go
[09:35] {Threei}  FCX invalidated
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .65 break
[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[09:38] {nemo} short below .60?
[09:38] {Threei}  hard to tell, not sure
[09:39] {nemo} there's that bid
[09:41] {ese} L agnc .50
[09:42] {nemo} 1/2 out .40
[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .40 break hl
[09:42] {nemo} stop is .50
[09:42] {Threei}  stop under .35 scalpers, .30 day traders
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .45 break
[09:44] {ese} out agnc .63 +.13
[09:44] {Threei}  .35 stop
[09:45] {Threei}  half out LVS
[09:45] {Threei}  out in full
[09:45] {Threei}  1:1 FCX
[09:46] {scottie} lvs +.10 ty
[09:46] {Threei}  yw
[09:48] {Threei}  LVS had more in it
[09:48] {Threei}  out too soon
[09:49] {scottie} If I could read just 1 minute in the future...
[09:50] {Threei}  wait... you don't have "sell at the high indicated in tomorrow's WSJ" button?
[09:50] {Threei}  costs a bit extra but...
[09:50] {scottie} I'm missing that one lol
[09:51] {Beau} is that better than the "sell too soon" button on my $2.95 comp?
[09:51] {Threei}  much... ask cc_8 for it
[09:52] {Threei}  no news for this spike that I see
[09:53] {nemo} when spy got above 135 it broke MPP, which was above the volume vacuum, when it held it, buy programs went off
[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  JCP  .85 break hl
[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:55] {Threei}  half lot, this thing is treacherous
[09:55] {Threei}  can dump again
[09:55] {Threei}  and sharply
[09:56] {Threei}  target 1:3 if works
[09:56] {nemo} retailers are at the bottom of the strong list
[09:56] {nemo} finanacials industrials and commodities at the top
[09:57] {Threei}  a lot of overhead but honestly trying
[09:58] {Threei}  1:1
[09:58] {scottie} sold at .96, +.11 ty
[09:58] {Threei}  yw
[09:58] {Threei}  come on penny, squeeze
[09:58] {Threei}  hmmm... it sounded much better in my head
[09:59] {Threei}  stop to .84 for the balance
[10:00] {Threei}  take 22 and, how do you spell it...
[10:00] {Threei}  iksplode?
[10:00] {Threei}  yep, that sounds about right
[10:00] {Threei}  1:2
[10:01] {Threei}  let's trail stop to .89 for the balance
[10:01] {Threei}  .94 now
[10:02] {Threei}  1:3 target close enough, out
[10:03] {Threei}  (FR) France President Hollande: Goal is to send a message of market stability at the G20; Europe must act quickly and start dialogue with Greece Govt- interest rates in Spain and Italy are not acceptable - Reiterates calls to adopt a financial transactions (tobin) tax
[10:03] {Threei}  not acceptable eh
[10:03] {Threei}  you tell them, Hollande
[10:04] {Threei}  see what I meant calling JCP treacherous?
[10:04] {Threei}  30 cents dump out of nowhere
[10:05] {thomcbell} jcp feels like it will be bankrupt
[10:05] {nemo} retailers are the weakest stocks right now besides gold and goldminers
[10:05] {Threei}  "penny saved..." there just must be a joke in there somwhere
[10:08] {ese} L bks .39, L hcp .60
[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .90 hl
[10:09] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[10:12] {Threei}  1:1 is close enough
[10:12] {Threei}  here it is
[10:13] {scottie} +.09 ty
[10:13] {Threei}  :)
[10:17] {ese} Hey Vad...............answer me this......do you find trading patterns more erratic these days.....the two that i'm watching right now i've traded in the past but the level 2 bounces around like a supper ball...i don't recall it being like this in the past
[10:17] {Threei}  it comes and goes in waves, depending on the degree of market nervousness
[10:18] {ese} i guess eh........
[10:18] {Threei}  any time EU is closer to falling apart it oncreases... every time they kick the can down the road once again, it ebbs
[10:18] {Threei}  remember fall of 2008?
[10:19] {Threei}  just wait till EU collapses, we will see that again
[10:19] {Threei}  and we did very well back then
[10:19] {ese} out bks .61 +.21
[10:20] {ese} ya
[10:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[10:22] {Threei}  If holds  .33
[10:22] {Threei}  target .55 - .60
[10:23] {Threei}  two partials, one just under .50 and another between .55 and .60
[10:25] {Threei}  stop .34
[10:27] {ese} bks making these huge jumps in quotes.....really volitile for that stock thats normally calm
[10:27] {Threei}  no go
[10:28] {Threei}  look at its level 2, ese
[10:28] {ese} for tza?
[10:28] {ese} or bks
[10:28] {Threei}  BKS
[10:29] {Threei}  spread widens to 6 cents at times, sizes are small
[10:29] {ese} yup can see....big sprd sm size.......
[10:30] {ese} hmmmmm...ya they would have to go across a couple of levels to fill orders
[10:53] {ese} man.......look at hcp.....this will be the 5th time it's butted up against .60...........sheesh....get on with it will ya.......
[10:54] {ese} does the pointed boot thing really work vad?
[10:54] {ese} how bout the over sized baseball bat?
[10:55] {Threei}  of coirse it does
[10:55] {dino} .
[10:55] {ese} dddddddiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!
[10:56] {dino} lol, takes me awhile to process change
[10:56] {ese} you can take over from where i leave off......have to go and supervise an exam......Pre Calculus 11....anbody want to take it?
06[10:56] * Threei kicks HCP in the rear with heavy duty steel toe army boot
[10:57] {ese} tks
[10:57] {dino} cya
[10:57] {ese} got a few minutes yet......
[10:58] {ese} sacre blu!!!!!!!!!!!
[11:01] {Threei}  there you go
[11:01] {Threei}  the power of the kick
[11:01] {nemo} power of the indexes
[11:02] {ese} yup
[11:12] {ese} gotta go c you all tomorrow.....stop in for hcp....we'll see what happens
[11:13] {Threei}  take care ese
[11:19] {Threei}  SPY drifts with no determination
[11:20] {nemo} well, after that morning run, sheesh
[11:22] {nemo} tnaa .51 might be worth a try
[11:24] {nemo} http://yfrog.com/od723ryj
[11:25] {scottie} lol
[11:25] {nemo} I worry about bunny when she goes out at night
[11:26] {Threei}  as any caring father should...
[11:39] {scottie} LMT .38 stop .26?
[11:40] {Threei}  a bit too wide... I'd prefer aggressive entry
[11:40] {scottie} in .35
[11:40] {Threei}  and smaller shares
[11:40] {Threei}  volatile one
[11:43] {cipher} scalped lmt thx scottie
[11:43] {Threei}  nice move
[11:43] {Threei}  and good find
[11:44] {scottie} out .45 +.10
[11:44] {scottie} yw cipher
[11:44] {scottie} thanks Vad
[11:44] {Beau} well done s
[11:45] {scottie} thanks Beau
[11:45] {Threei}  so frikin rewarding to see newer guys getting it down
[11:46] {Threei}  a month ago, were you able to find this kind of setups?
[11:46] {scottie} no way
[11:46] {Threei}  and execute it cleanly and confidently
[11:46] {Threei}  that's real progress before our very eyes
[11:48] {scottie} sold too soon
[11:48] {dino} part of the game
[11:53] {Threei}  my analogy catches up:
[11:53] {Threei}  QE Addicts Send Equities Higher Ahead of FOMC Fix
[12:00] {Threei}  Scott Rasmussen ?@RasmussenPoll
[12:00] {Threei}  Daily Tracking: #Romney: 48%, #Obama: 44%
[12:03] {dino} good
[12:07] {Beau} worry about tea party/Ron Paul types in Congress with Romney.
[12:10] {nemo} having said that the Democrats and Republicans have done a wonderful job
[12:10] {nemo} or is that Democans and Republicrats
[12:11] {nemo} They both want welfare for their constituents and don't want to pay the bills
[12:12] {dino} anything better than obam-ination
[12:12] {thomcbell} qcom a short candidate next time there is weakness
[12:12] {thomcbell} a grudging participant
[12:12] {Threei}  that was just my thought... whatever we get is not likely to be anything even close to great, but whatever it is, it can't be worse than what we have now
[12:12] {thomcbell} in upmove
[12:13] {nemo} wait until the states blow up
[12:14] {nemo} Here in Mass. legislators want to install a per mile driven charge
[12:15] {dino} isn't that basically a gasoline tax
[12:15] {nemo} no GPS based.  whack you for every mile you drive
[12:16] {nemo} they could also do it through yearly inspection because your odometer reading is recorded then
[12:16] {nemo} average driver 14, 800 miles a year
[12:17] {dino} soon they will tax you to breath
[12:17] {nemo} you'll have a methane guage stuck in your ass too
[12:17] {nemo} guage
[12:17] {thomcbell} ice cream tax - pork fat tax
[12:18] {nemo} Have huge union pension issues in every state
[12:18] {nemo} one thing nice about this job
[12:18] {nemo} only need an internet connection
[12:18] {dino} yeah
[12:18] {nemo} Think I'll move out to Idaho with the White Supremacists
[12:19] {Threei}  I am weighing Antractica with penguins
[12:19] {nemo} Town I live in is nice, but city next to us gone to hell
[12:19] {nemo} My grandfather was Chief of Police there in the 50's and 60's
[12:20] {Beau} come with us to Panama
[12:20] {nemo} My grandmother was dying in '95, I'm standing outside the house-frickin' drive by shooting 4 houses down
[12:20] {dino} town i'm in fine, but scranton/wilkes-barre (30 miles away) is getting bad. lots of drug shootings / stabbings every week
[12:22] {nemo} Yeah, alot of subhumans
[12:22] {scottie} I live in Quebec City and all's quiet around here
[12:22] {nemo} shut up scottie
[12:22] {dptl} lol
[12:22] {dino} lol
[12:22] {scottie} You come here and tell me that
[12:23] {nemo} We'll box you up and send you to France
[12:23] {thomcbell} lvs short setup here Vad - 46.30 break?
[12:23] {scottie} no please
[12:25] {Threei}  probably tbell...
[12:25] {Threei}  a little bit hesitant to short yet
[12:25] {nemo} Scottie...you don't want me to come there...I enjoy stuff like that, it was a former profession of mine
[12:25] {Threei}  but chart does form the setup
[12:25] {thomcbell} looks like a waste of time while the firehose is on
[12:26] {nemo} I think we don't get any major pullbacks until Bernanke speaks tomorrow...I think we actually go higher and get the QPP on SPY and maybe on IWM
[12:33] {nemo} db iwm
[12:37] {dino} db?
[12:37] {nemo} double bottom, but it let go
[12:37] {dino} ok, thought thats what you meant, but i didn't see that
[12:38] {nemo} Now, if I had something like, "Les is a DB," that's an entirely different meaning.
[12:38] {dino} looks like slow rollover to me
[12:38] {Threei}  I'll be back in 30-40 min guys... nothing much is likely happen meanwhile anway
[12:38] {nemo} weekly R1 is at 78.46
[12:39] {nemo} this is 61.8 retrace of recent up move
[12:40] {nemo} on IWM
[12:49] {nemo} It would be so perfectly aggravating for spy to go for the Quarterly Pivot today...It has to test 136...just too damn close.  I wonder how many buy stops are just above that?
[12:54] {cipher} cat l .03
[12:55] {nemo} this should be the start
[12:57] {cipher} out cat .16
[12:58] {nemo} why'd you get out so soon cipher?
[12:58] {dino} gj
[12:58] {cipher} gut feel
[12:58] {dino} oh, then gf
[12:59] {nemo} no resistance until .40 though, if it holds .00 good risk
[13:08] {cipher} aapl l .50
[13:16] {cipher} out aapl .20 +.70
[13:17] {Beau} excellent cipher
[13:17] {cipher} ty
[13:17] {cipher} this felt more like a long term investment
[13:22] {dino} gj/gf
[13:28] {Threei}  back
[13:34] {cipher} cat s .60
[13:35] {cipher} stopped .70 -.10
[13:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .50 break
[14:06] {nemo} think spy still has to get to the .45 area
[14:12] {scottie} target?
[14:12] {Threei}  1:2 at most
[14:17] {dino} sxci drop
[14:20] {cipher} +. 45 sxci thank you sir!
[14:20] {Threei}  (EU) European minister: France would only agree to deeper EU integration if agreement on growth measures is reached first - financial press
[14:22] {dino} gj cipher
[14:23] {Threei}  they are totally lost:
[14:23] {Threei}  (EU) German Chancellor Merkel said to have indicated to G20 leaders that she is ready to support allowing euro zone firewall funds to purchase govt bonds in troubled nations - UK Guardian (update)- Would be a shift in stance by Germany which has previously opposed using the EFSF to lend directly to troubled euzo zone countries. - Merkel said to have told Obama of the plan on the sidelines of the G20, prompting him to cancel bilateral meetings with other European officials (canceled a meeting with Monti). - The article does not cite any sources. }
[14:23] {Threei}  **NOTE: the article does not mention how the scheme would overcome the legal and technical hurdles it would face or whether it would include an expansion of the firewall funds in order to accommodate the needs of Spain and Italy.
[14:25] {Threei}  what does it solve?
[14:26] {Threei}  they buy their bonds... in a few months money is spent, what's next?
[14:26] {Threei}  1:1 FAZ
[14:28] {Threei}  per some estimations, 64-million apartments in China are empty
[14:30] {Threei}  1:2
[14:30] {Threei}  me put
[14:30] {Threei}  out
[14:31] {scottie} Sold at .61 ty
[14:31] {Threei}  (EU) Germany Govt official comments there was no discussion at G20 about plan to use bailout backstop funds to purchase Govt bonds of crisis hit member states
[14:31] {nemo} now that's a perfect example of talking out your ass
[14:32] {Threei}  no kidding
[14:32] {Threei}  if my math is correct, that's 5 for 7
[14:32] {dino} out faz +.20 ty vad
[14:33] {Threei}  :)
[14:33] {Threei}  guys
[14:33] {Threei}  look at the volume spike on this drop
[14:33] {nemo} take your socks off to be sure
[14:34] {Threei}  this is very telling
[14:34] {Threei}  this climb is very careful, serious money keeps finger on sell button at all times
[14:35] {Threei}  any hint of things not going the EU way, this market will drop very far and very fast
[14:36] {Threei}  and nemo... you are missing the point
[14:37] {Threei}  what difference socks would make if I can count to 10, be it fingers or toes
[14:37] {Threei}  and I am shaky after 6
[14:38] {nemo} I was giving you the benefit of the doubt...I just don't do "nice" well
[14:38] {Threei}  don't you dare doubt my inability to count that far
[14:39] {nemo} It would probably be better to try counting after you've been drinking heavily, then you could count to 40
06[14:39] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a large abacus
[14:40] {cc_8} that was awesome
[14:40] {nemo} another in the peanut gallery heard from
[14:40] {nemo} Mmmmhhhh...will they let me ship guns to Canada?
[14:41] {Threei}  especially part where all the beads scatterd all over the floor
[14:41] {Threei}  hmmm
[14:41] {Threei}  no
[14:41] {nemo} oh...
[14:42] {nemo} swords?
[14:42] {Threei}  in checked baggage, I guess
[14:42] {nemo} fine...a little bit messy, but....
[14:43] {Threei}  that should do fine... I always dreamt to die in a sword fight
[14:43] {nemo} no, was thinking of  "+cc-8"
[14:43] {Threei}  with black patch over one eye
[14:43] {cipher} tza l.25
[14:43] {nemo} mmmhhhh...cc 8, does that mean 8 cc is his cranial capacity?
[14:44] {cipher} out .33
[14:44] {nemo} vwap at IWM .54 cipher
[14:44] {Threei}  lol cipher, you are not messing around, are you
[14:44] {cipher} not today
[14:45] {cipher} had a rugh morning
[14:45] {nemo} spy r2 at .59, IWM and SPY hit those levels at the same time, I'd get out of FAZ
[14:45] {nemo} oh, out already
[14:45] {nemo} cipher had a beautiful setup in CAT earlier, but pulled out
[14:46] {Threei}  I wish Ben's father did...
[14:46] {nemo} cute
[14:46] {cipher} who's ben?
[14:46] {Threei}  ok, that was crude
[14:46] {cipher} aha never mind
[14:46] {cipher} :-)
[14:47] {Threei}  Fed chairman? :)
[14:47] {cipher} copter benny
[14:47] {Threei}  one and only
[14:47] {dptl} lol you guys...lol
[14:47] {Threei}  guy that will leave ruins in his wake when he is done fixing things
[14:47] {dino} lol, i was thinking ben dover
[14:48] {cipher} lol dino
[14:48] {cc_8} i see a bear and he is making some nice coin
[14:49] {cipher} ok I'm happy with today
[14:50] {cipher} cya tomorrow
[14:50] {cc_8} later cipher
[14:50] {nemo} long setups shaping up iwm spy fas
[14:50] {Threei}  take care cipher
[14:51] {Threei}  careful nemo
[14:51] {dino} cya ciph
[14:51] {Threei}  so far it's merely low volume bounce
[14:51] {cipher} scalped tna +.15 thx nemo
[14:51] {cipher} leaving now :-)
[14:51] {nemo} yw cipher
[14:52] {nemo} pppphhhhhht!!!! to Vad
[14:52] {cipher} couldn't pass that one
[14:52] {nemo} both spy and IWM getting sticky at the 20 ma that's not good
[14:53] {nemo} we are at vwap, they may be content with that
[14:57] {nemo} yeah baby, 52 should be good, but .90 partial coming
[14:58] {nemo} stop can be under .80
[14:58] {nemo} suppose to let it breathe should make it .69, but nah
[14:59] {nemo} they're you go
[15:00] {nemo} flashed big bid at .80
[15:03] {nemo} interesting:  fcx got hung up in some fib retracement confluences I did God knows when, if it breaks these, clear sailing until 36.60, although, I doubt it today
[15:30] {dino} .
[15:44] {scottie} ok, see you tomorrow guys
[15:44] {Threei}  take care scottie
[15:44] {dptl} gn all
[15:44] {dino} cya
[15:46] {Threei}  ok guys
[15:46] {Threei}  no more trades, feels like pushing
[15:47] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:47] {thomcbell} good night all
[15:54] {dino} gn all

Monday, June 18, 2012

June 18 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html)  


10 calls, 9 wins. Just pure pleasure to report.


Session Time: Mon Jun 18 00:00:00 2012

[09:10] {scottie} gm
[09:10] {Threei}  good morning
[09:19] {dptl} gm
[09:19] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:21] {_jackharry} gm everyone, new here, first day of trial
[09:21] {scottie} hi
[09:22] {_jackharry} looking forward to seeing how you guys operate
[09:22] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:22] {Threei}  mornng jackharry, welcome
[09:22] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:23] {Threei}  so, to sum up weekend events: EU has been saved again, only to fall apart a few months later' agony is being dragged out; Spain's next
[09:24] {Threei}  previous "positive" event (Spain bailout) bought us positive opening at least, this one can't do even that
[09:26] {Threei}  oh, and
[09:26] {Threei}  (GR) New Greek govt said to seek 2-year extension in meeting fiscal target to 2016 (in line with ND pledge) - financial press- Extending the budget target would cost creditors around �16B **Reminder: Greek New Democracy leader Samaras reiterated his pledge to attempt to amend bailout agreement upon receiving formal mandate to form coalition govt earlier today
[09:27] {Threei}  all in all, my bias is on short side
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break half lot
[09:30] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[09:31] {Threei}  1:1
[09:32] {scottie} +.10 ty
[09:32] {Threei}  yw... not taking any chances, are you
[09:34] {Threei}  TZA on watch for pullback entry
[09:34] {scottie} For the last few days days, during the first half hour, I tend to scalp with small shares only
[09:34] {Threei}  can't blame you
[09:34] {Threei}  the degree of jerkiness is higher than normall
[09:35] {Threei}  and dino and ese are sleeping in... who'd provide volune :)
[09:35] {scottie} lol
[09:36] {Threei}  Consumer, Investor Confidence Fall To Lowest Level Since January
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .96 break
[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:38] {Threei}  FCX refuses to particpate in bounce
[09:38] {Threei}  keeping it on radar as candidate for another short
[09:39] {Threei}  TZA invalidated
[09:39] {nemo} fade the close and go
[09:40] {Threei}  in english?
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  ..85 break
[09:43] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .75 break
[09:46] {Threei}  stop .66
[09:46] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .10 break hl
[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[09:47] {Threei}  TZA stop to .69
[09:48] {Threei}  CAT target 1:2
[09:49] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[09:49] {Threei}  TZA half out
[09:49] {Threei}  stop to .74, CAT stop to .12
[09:50] {scottie} tza +.09 ty
[09:50] {Threei}  :)
[09:50] {scottie} didn't take cat
[09:50] {Threei}  that's pulpy one
[09:51] {Beau} tza scalp thx vad
[09:51] {Threei}  1:2 CAT, out
[09:51] {Threei}  welcome
[09:51] {Threei}  out second half TZA
[09:52] {Threei}  so far so good
[09:54] {Threei}  ugh... FCX got away
[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) JUN NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 29 V 28E
[10:00] {nemo} wow, blew it away....cough
[10:00] {Threei}  highest since 2007
[10:00] {ese} morning....am L RIO .20 but have to go .....last day of classes....see you all tomorrow
[10:00] {Threei}  hi ese
[10:00] {ese} have a great trading day
[10:01] {Threei}  bye too
[10:01] {Threei}  we do so far
[10:01] {ese} hi vad cya.....just one of them days
[10:01] {ese} take care
[10:01] {Threei}  :)
[10:02] {Threei}  - Comments: The uptick is reflective of the continued, gradual improvement we are seeing in many individual housing markets as more buyers decide to take advantage of today's low prices and interest rates," - Chief Economist: "Builders across the country continue to report that overly tight lending conditions and inaccurate appraisals are major obstacles to completing sales at this time,"
[10:04] {Threei}  what's with sudden bout of optimism
[10:05] {nemo} who made the comments-if it's the real estate association u r surprised?
[10:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  77 break
[10:10] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .40 break hl
[10:11] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:11] {Threei}  if invalidates, let it drop under .20 for recross with stop under .10
[10:12] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:13] {Threei}  1:1
[10:14] {Threei}  scalpers win
[10:14] {nemo} momentum is weakening in spy and IWM
06[10:14] * Threei slants at scottie
[10:14] {scottie} +.10 ty vad
[10:14] {Threei}  hehe
[10:16] {Threei}  4:4... not a typical Monday
[10:17] {Threei}  Mondays are usually less orderly
[10:17] {nemo} spy closed gap
[10:18] {Threei}  another bout of groundless optimism
[10:18] {Threei}  aww TNA
[10:19] {Threei}  (EU) Fitch comments on Greece and Europe; sees the area as back from the brink but the crisis has not yet been solved- The narrow victory of New Democracy in the Greek parliamentary elections means the near-term risk of a Greek disorderly debt default and exit from the euro has fallen - Fitch will not place all eurozone sovereigns on Rating Watch Negative as it had indicated would be the case if a Greek euro exit were a probable near-term event. - The pace of economic contraction is almost certainly accelerating. The country's liquidity position is fast deteriorating, underscoring the urgency of forming a new government and the resumption of disbursements under the EU-IMF programme.
[10:20] {Threei}  look at this:
[10:20] {Threei}  (GR) Italy PM Monti: Markets have not been convinced by the recent outcome in the Greece elections - G20- The euro crisis is not the only source of global economic turmoil. - The rest of the G20 need to "do their homework."
[10:21] {Threei}  can you believe no one slapped this guy after these remarks?
[10:24] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .15 break
[10:24] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:24] {Threei}  target .30
[10:25] {Threei}  two partials
[10:25] {Threei}  one is here'
[10:25] {Threei}  stop to .14
[10:27] {scottie} sold at +.10 ty
[10:27] {Threei}  :)
[10:28] {Threei}  5:5
[10:28] {Threei}  target hit
[10:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[10:33] {thomcbell} very nice Vad
[10:33] {Threei}  ty
[10:34] {Threei}  feels like time for some retreat
[10:34] {nemo} i took spxyu
[10:34] {nemo} spxu
[10:35] {scottie} target?
[10:35] {Threei}  offer half at .58
[10:35] {Threei}  it's likely to hesitate before attempting to break .60
[10:36] {Threei}  stop .44
[10:37] {nemo} we're gonna test the backside of the trend line on spy
[10:38] {Threei}  half out .57
[10:38] {nemo} scalper monday so far
[10:38] {Threei}  not entirely, some worked for more
[10:39] {Threei}  stop .48
[10:41] {Threei}  ok, scalpers win this one
[10:42] {Threei}  read this article when got a few min, good one
[10:42] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/OrLAc
[10:43] {scottie} in .51 half out at .58, the other half at .48, still a winning trade
[10:44] {Threei}  yes... just thought I had a bit more in it
[10:44] {Threei}  it
[10:47] {Threei}  can't tell which way the next step is here
[10:47] {Threei}  can be a double top of a bull flaf woth equal odds
[10:47] {Threei}  waitinf ro more certainty
[10:47] {nemo} yeah, and...oh spy volume
[10:47] {nemo} we're going north
[10:48] {Threei}  flaf? lol
[10:48] {Threei}  flag that was
[10:48] {nemo} o.k. nothing stopping us to 135 now, this is volume vacuum area
[10:48] {nemo} 134.37 is monthly pivot, it holds that we go higher
[10:49] {nemo} finanicials not participating though
[11:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break
[11:21] {Threei}  hl
[11:21] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[11:22] {Threei}  quick 1:1
[11:22] {Threei}  (EU) Germany Chancellor Merkel: Will not accept any easing in the reform measures agreed upon by Greece; expecting Greece to quickly form a stable Govt- More work is necessary with Greece - No reason exists to discuss any new aid packages beyond the two that have already been agreed upon - Expecting Europeans to agree on common decisions for sustainable growth measures
[11:23] {thomcbell} Short setup - FIO 19.90 break if holding 20.02
[11:30] {scottie} scalped it +.10 ty
[11:30] {Threei}  FIO?
[11:30] {scottie} tna
[11:30] {Threei}  cool
[11:30] {Threei}  7 for 7
[11:30] {thomcbell} i am there small shares
[11:31] {Threei}  can I go home?
[11:31] {scottie} I'm already at my third scotch
[11:31] {Threei}  well, you are three hours ahead
[11:32] {scottie} must be 5 o'clock somewhere
[11:37] {thomcbell} scratching fio
[11:37] {Threei}  you guys read that article, on France election outcome?
[11:38] {scottie} not yet, lunch time reading
[11:40] {thomcbell} short setup - qcom 56.34 break if holding 56.46
[11:48] {thomcbell} invalidated qcom
[11:48] {thomcbell} never triggered
[11:48] {thomcbell} will watch for a nother setup
[11:51] {Threei}  (GR) S&P exec Kraemer: Greece needs a growth plan to help its sovereign debt issues; subordination of debt was a mistake
[11:52] {Threei}  heh... now they get it
[11:52] {Threei}  but they do the same subordination with Spain
[11:52] {Threei}  imbeciles
[12:18] {dino} fosl sm l .03
[12:23] {scottie} c&h building on FCX?
[12:23] {Threei}  yes... with .95 trigger
[12:27] {nemo} ahhhh.....F11 key
[12:34] {scottie} in fcx .95
[12:35] {scottie} small lot
[12:39] {nemo} God Bless ya' in this tape
[12:50] {scottie} half out .05
[12:50] {scottie} offering the rest at .15
[12:52] {scottie} out +.20
[12:56] {Threei}  wtg
[12:56] {Beau} gj scottie
[12:56] {Threei}  good find and by-the-book execution
[12:56] {Threei}  no secind-guessing, no emotions, just following the standard procedure
[12:56] {scottie} ty Beau, Vad
[12:57] {scottie} Slow learning is still learning
[12:58] {Threei}  actually, it's the best kind
[12:59] {Threei}  makes for a properly adopted material, as opposed to a quick grasp which is often superficial
[13:00] {Beau} vad about learning.  possible sometimes to show why your call?  I'm studying your 111 but would love real time applications.
[13:01] {Threei}  I do that in Catch of the Day ones
[13:01] {Threei}  those that I post with comment "visual"
[13:01] {Threei}  is that what you mean?
[13:01] {Threei}  if comment to them are too brief, do ask for more details
[13:02] {Beau} yes, I look at those.  I was just thinking maybe after your call of setup. Line xxxx l .00, doublebottom etc.
[13:02] {nemo} interesting, spy popped it's head up to R1 which is above the Monthly pivot, and just retested against the monthly pivot and failed, that might be a significant lower low.  134.37 important
[13:02] {Threei}  oh
[13:02] {Beau} often evident but not always.  anyway justa thought.
[13:03] {Threei}  well, I try when I have time
[13:03] {nemo} yeah, see how many times it triggers while he's writing
[13:03] {Beau} yep.
[13:03] {nemo} and don't forget, his typing sucks
[13:03] {Threei}  if you noticed, when I make a call in advance, I often accompany it by a comment like:
[13:03] {nemo} "shutup nemo?"
[13:04] {Threei}  ABCD, should be a double bottom if drops to X, recrosses, while golding Y"
[13:04] {Threei}  lol
[13:04] {Threei}  holding
[13:04] {Threei}  but when I hurry to alert before it triggers,
[13:05] {Beau} ok
[13:05] {Threei}  and then it does, and I am in a trade myself, and gotta comment on management, well
[13:05] {Beau} agree.
[13:06] {Beau} thanks for explaination
[13:06] {Threei}  sure thing... also, do use those Catch of the Day posts as a continuation to both, 111 Trades course and real time
[13:07] {Threei}  they are kept indefinitiely on both Facebook page and trading log
[13:07] {Beau} yes.
[13:07] {Threei}  at some point when we get a lot of those accumulated, I will combine them intoaddition to 111 Trades
[13:07] {Beau} i print them out and into notebook with 111 stuff.
[13:07] {Threei}  so they are all in one place
[13:09] {Beau} thanks for comments.  let nemo get at you now
[13:10] {Threei}  why... why would you do that to me
[13:11] {nemo} he's a nasty fellow
[13:11] {nemo} hehehehehehe
[13:14] {scottie} Vad, I have a question about order entry.
[13:15] {scottie} Let's say you call a long setup with break of .50 if holds .40
[13:15] {Threei}  shoot
[13:15] {scottie} I understand you prepare an order at .52, correct?
[13:15] {scottie} Then, do you trigger the trade when the ticker prints .50 or .51 ?
[13:15] {Threei}  right, if I go for a regular entry
[13:16] {Threei}  .50 disappears, first print at ,51
[13:17] {scottie} thanks. and then, do you place a stop order at .40 (or .39)?
[13:17] {Threei}  .39, but I don't use hardwired stop
[13:17] {Threei}  it's mental and executed manually
[13:17] {scottie} you place market orders then ?
[13:18] {Threei}  ?
[13:18] {Threei}  why market?
[13:18] {Threei}  same idea, limit a few cents beyond market
[13:19] {scottie} same thing if it goes up?
[13:19] {Threei}  if it goes in my favor, I chose between placing exit order in advance or witing for a price to get there
[13:19] {Threei}  waiting
[13:19] {Threei}  matter of personal preferences often
[13:20] {scottie} thanks
[13:20] {Threei}  sure
[13:21] {Threei}  with Laser, you also have this additional advantage of ECN rebate if you lay out order in advance
[13:21] {Threei}  helps to take a sting out of commissions
[13:22] {Beau} what route and anyone what is thought on BATS
[13:23] {Threei}  I believe cc_8 is most qualified on that
[13:46] {Threei}  (GR) Deposit outflows from Greece banks said to have slowed following the recent elections - financial press
[13:46] {Threei}  maybe they just ran out of money to wathdraw?
[13:47] {nemo} got there before i did
[13:47] {Threei}  On July 13th reports indicated deposit outflows for larger Greek banks were running at �500-800M. On June 7th banks in Greece said to have lost �5-6B in deposits in May, following elections results.
[13:47] {Threei}  yep
[13:48] {Threei}  (EU) Italy to propose a semi automatic mechanism using the ECB or ESM to bring down spreads between bonds - financial press
[13:48] {Threei}  heh... anything to limit free market
[13:49] {Threei}  which is understandable from free market point of view this whole thing should be eliminated
[13:50] {Threei}  (ES) Spain Fin Min: Recent bond yields do not reflect the potential of economy; market reactions do not reflect growth potential and reforms that have been taken- EU leaders are united and working towards fiscal integration, agree on the need for fiscal union. - Spain is solvent
[13:51] {Threei}  yes... thnat's why it needs 120B
[13:53] {Threei}  in an unlikely case you are not puking yet frpm all this neverending stream of stupidity out of EU, this one should finish you off:
[13:53] {Threei}  (GR) EU's Barroso: Close to agreeing upon a financial transactions tax (tobin) in Europe; Stands ready to support Greece in its efforts; Greece must implement its reforms; banking union proposals to be released in the fall- Ultimately Eurobonds will not be turned into a license to spend. - Banking union could be pulled off quickly, without changing treaties. - Would like to see implementation of a financial transactions tax globally.
[13:54] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .75 break
[13:54] {Threei}  fouble top
[13:55] {Threei}  double too
[13:55] {Threei}  If holds  .85
[13:55] {scottie} in .73
[13:57] {Threei}  target 1:2
[13:59] {nemo} spy C&H
[14:00] {Threei}  stop to .81
[14:00] {Threei}  touched 1 cent from 1:1
[14:02] {Threei}  1:1
[14:02] {Threei}  half ou, stop to .76
[14:02] {Threei}  you know the drill
[14:03] {Threei}  that's 8 out of 8
[14:03] {scottie} you're on fire
[14:04] {Threei}  on an upward day, which is strange for me
[14:15] {nemo} finally, here we go
[14:15] {nemo} rip time
[14:17] {Threei}  (GR) Greece parties to reach deal on coalition Govt on Tuesday - financial press
[14:17] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .75 break
[14:17] {Threei}  If holds  .85
[14:19] {Threei}  this is bs reason for a spike and very likely to be faded. GDX haven't made new high with SPY and barely retested old one
[14:19] {Threei}  so, good candidate to try for this fade
[14:20] {nemo} but has been pretty good about it's trend line
[14:34] {scottie} can't win em all
[14:35] {Threei}  oh well
[14:35] {Threei}  I'll settle for such percentage
[14:35] {scottie} anytime
[14:54] {nemo} longs beginning to setup in spy iwm fas
[14:56] {Threei}  really?
[14:56] {Threei}  I'd look for shorts here...
[14:56] {nemo} this is MPP for spy, long setup, tight stop
[14:56] {dptl} mpp?
[14:57] {nemo} Monthly Pivot Point
[14:57] {nemo} obviously...DP doesn't read the blog
[14:57] {dptl} ok ty
[14:58] {nemo} hah...guess you could get confused with the Master Profit Plan
[15:04] {nemo} see
[15:06] {Beau} nemo IWM trigger was.38?
[15:07] {scottie} I have to go. Thanks for the great day, Vad
[15:07] {Threei}  welcome, have a good evening
[15:07] {scottie} gn everyone
[15:11] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[15:12] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[15:13] {Threei}  half out .49
[15:14] {Threei}  scalpers be free
[15:14] {Threei}  stop to .39
[15:25] {nemo} read towards the bottom:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303734204577466910796158718.html
[15:27] {nemo} love Gates' suggestion
[15:28] {Threei}  hehe
[15:31] {nemo} it would be so perfect for the spy and IWM to bolt to the 50 SMA
[15:48] {dptl} gn all
[15:48] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:48] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:48] {_jackharry} thanks everyone, first day here, very nice indeed, looking forward to tomorrow
[15:51] {Threei}  great to hear jack

Saturday, June 16, 2012

Nemo's Findings week of 10-17-2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

The week that was:






As we can see the expected gap up on Monday basically started at the Monthly Pivot of both the IWM and SPY...(well, close enough for government work) and proceeded to sell off and then recovering the entire range to basically start where we began, bookended by Spain news on one end, and what will be the Greek election on the other.  Gotta' love the symmetry...

As we can see the gentle sloping rise from the bottom: does it imply strength or a bear flag?

Let's look at the 30 minute chart for some inkling as to what the future may present:



The Inverse Head and Shoulders (or is that a cup and handle?) is obvious with a measured move to the 141 area, but rarely do we find such predictability, otherwise, we'd all be billionaires.  (I'll just have to settle for handsome and witty).  So, with a Greek weekend coming, (and we're not talking Bachanalian debauchery at a fraternity house)...oh the pain of memory, as silly optimistic humans, the market may paint it optimistically and gap up.  Being the eternal cynic, (H.L. Mencken was my hero) I lean towards that.  Notice the "volume at price" gap between the monthly pivot point and the 50SMA and WR1-that could be easily traversed.  Should we open above and it holds we can see a strong confluence at the QPP/WR2 which also contains the 27.2 fib extension.

Should it not, and it falls below the MPP, look for a return to the WPP.  Of course, anything can happen, but it is likely that the 200 SMA will provide some supportn not only because of what it is, but because of the left side of the Inverse Head and Shoulders.  Also, notice the exactitude with which price action bottomed at the MS1...so we're likely safe until the 4th of July weekend....mmmhhh, symmetry rears it's ugly head again...will the holiday presage market fireworks as well?  I wonder if the heavy hitters are wondering if they'll be able to summer in the Hamptons.

Looking at IWM:



Same relative chart, although a tad weaker this week then the SPY.  I guess risk-on tempered itself into the weekend election festivities.  The MPP and 50SMA are a bit farther away but could easily be breached.   same resistance and support dynamics as spy.  Same exactitude at the bottom with MS1, with the one variance of both the SPP and YPP in that area.  Anyway...

Here are the remaining charts for next week:









Friday, June 15, 2012

Market Week Wrap-up


Market Week Wrap-up: All Eyes on Athens



- The imminent Greek parliamentary elections have unsettled markets for weeks and at this point there is no clear view of how the event will impact markets in the days and weeks to come. Last weekend Europe offered Spain up to €100B to recapitalize its banks with almost no demands for policy changes and Spain accepted the deal on a preliminary basis. China reported a mixed bag of May data over the weekend as well, with much better than expected trade figures but slightly weaker industrial production and retail sales. Equity markets were forced lower early on in the week as peripheral yields spiked higher post-Spain bailout; the Spanish 10-year yield crept higher all week and briefly tested above 7% on Thursday, with Italian yields not far behind. Analysts warned that the bailout was in reality merely an attempt to buoy Spain's banks ahead of the uncertain Greek elections on Sunday. Press reports citing anonymous officials suggested that G7 and/or G20 central banks were preparing coordinated action contingency plans to cope with any fallout from the Greek poll, and there were some unilateral efforts undertaken by individual banks. The Bank of England and the UK government took their own steps to prepare the British banking system for more turmoil by activating the Extended Collateral Term Repo (ECTR) lending facility, which was set up late last year. The scheme will inject an estimated £80B into banks over time. Russia cut its FX swap rate to ensure liquidity. Weak data in the US was taken as potential cover for the Fed to take some new stimulus action next week at the FOMC meeting. The headline May retail sales data showed contraction for the second consecutive month, the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index tumbled to its lowest point this year, and the May Industrial Production reading was negative. The DJIA gained 1.7% on the week, while the S&P500 added 1.3% and the Nasdaq gained 0.5%.

- The Greek elections finally arrive this Sunday: voting will take place between 7am to 7pm local time (midnight to 12 noon ET). Exit polls will be released as soon as polls close, with official results expected around 14:30ET. The Greek government bans the publication of polls for the final two weeks before the election, and the last sanctioned poll in early June showed the two leading contenders, pro-bailout New Democracy and stridently anti-bailout Syriza in a dead heat. There was chatter all this week about unpublished polling research favoring one side or the other, however a reputable Greek pollster was quoted as saying that Greek political parties were leaking numbers on purpose to boost their standing. For its part, Syriza reiterated that Greece must remain in the euro zone while also promising to demand a renegotiation of the bailout conditions, especially in light of the very easy treatment of Spain. Syriza leader Tsipras insisted that his party would not form a unity government or coalition government with pro-bailout parties. German officials countered these comments repeatedly, insisting that if Greece wished to remain in the euro zone it would have to respect all prior bailout conditions as they were. German press sources asserted that if the terms of the bailout were renegotiated, Greece would need a third bailout to cover the funding gap created by a longer period of austerity and structural realignment. Bundesbank President Weidmann said that allowing Greece more time to reduce its deficit would actually be harmful for the euro zone.

- The second quarter earnings season begins in a month or so, and preliminary guidance and profit warnings came down the wires all week. Semi name Texas Instruments narrowed its guidance range for Q2 in its mid-quarter update, keeping it more or less in line with consensus expectations. On the call, TI said that orders are trending well in the quarter, with the US market showing the most strength. Agrium said its Q2 earnings would be at the high end of its prior guidance range, putting them well above analysts' average. Agrium executives said the firm was seeing excellent results, with higher prices for fertilizer, higher margins and overall good market conditions. Scotts Miracle-Gro warned that it would fall short of its prior FY12 guidance as demand for its potting soil and plant seeds failed to take off during the peak season, as sales grew 3% YTD, down from +8% growth seen coming into the month of May. Steel name Nucor Corp warned that earnings in Q2 would be considerably lower than consensus estimates. The company blamed a surge in imports of cheap sheet steel and rebar for pressuring already-weak prices.

- Nokia launched a huge corporate overhaul, saying that it will close plants in Canada and Germany, plus its only remaining plant in Finland, with around 10,000 job cuts, totaling approximately 7% of its workforce. In addition, Nokia warned that margins in the handset business would be even worse than expected as sales of its new Lumina handset disappoint. Analysts suggested that Nokia was at the edge of collapse, causing major headaches for Microsoft which has made Nokia's handsets the core of its push to revive its smartphone business. Microsoft scheduled a "surprise" event for next Monday, where it promised a "major" announcement. Tech blogs, citing sources, said that the company is expected to unveil its own tablet computer offering.

- Several reports out this week offered color on the US housing market. RealtyTrac foreclosure activity report showed that foreclosure activity in May rose 9% over April levels, and the distinct "foreclosure starts" metric rose on a y/y basis for the first time in 27 months. Analysts say the sudden bump up in foreclosures is the long heralded flood that follows the resolution of banking industry's robo-signing scandal (and the freeze in foreclosures that accompanied it). RealtyTrac said that while many of the new foreclosure starts will likely end up as short sales or auction sales rather than repossessions, the new rush could "threaten to destabilize the market once again." An earlier report out of Corelogic indicated that April shadow inventory levels had fallen 14.8% y/y, though the flow of new seriously delinquent loans into the shadow inventory has been approximately offset by an equal volume of distressed sales.

- Coming into the week, EUR/USD tested above $1.2665 after euro zone leaders agreed to loan Spain €100B to recapitalize its banks. However the cross gave up all its post-bailout announcement gains over the course of the day on Monday. Dealers blamed the euro's swoon on skepticism of the deal for Spain aided by the SNB selling off euros accumulated in its defense of the EUR/CHF floor. EUR/USD made a few stabs below 1.2450, however the cross was firmly back above 1.2620 by Thursday afternoon. All in all, EUR/USD remained contained within its June trading range of 1.2300 to 1.2630 until late Friday when it broke out to a three week high.

- The Swiss Franc was steady after the SNB offered no surprises in its quarterly rate decision. SNB chief Jordan reiterated that CHF currency was too high even at the imposed 1.2000 floor and said that the bank would not exit the EUR/CHF floor policy any time soon. A taskforce including members of the Swiss government and the SNB was established to evaluate options to protect Switzerland from the euro zone crisis, although no concrete goals for the group were disclosed.

- Economic data out of China released over the weekend was mixed, as slowing inflation figures outweighed better than expected bank lending and trade prints for the increasingly more dovish PBoC. May CPI came in at a 2-year low of just 3.0% y/y, below 3.2% consensus, while PPI contracted at the quickest pace since late 2009. Industrial production was also 2 ticks below consensus at 9.6% but up from last month's multi-year low of 9.3%. Trade data was surprisingly positive as exports and imports turned in double-digit y/y gains, supporting commentary out of China state officials that the slowdown would be contained to the first half of the year. May new loans was also up over 10% above consensus at CNY793B, potentially keeping bank lending on target for CNY8.0-8.5T in 2012 - a range that was speculated to be unachievable just a month ago. Later in the week, China's NDRC researcher indicated the PBoC would continue to act on its new easing bias, cutting lending rates 2 more times and RRR 3 more times before the end of the year. Shanghai Composite ended the week up 1% above 2,300, right in the middle of its 2012 300-point range.

- A couple of central bank rate decisions in the Asia Pacific went as expected this week, albeit with a tinge of less than anticipated dovishness that briefly benefitted their respective currencies. Reserve Bank of New Zealand remained on hold at 2.50% for the 10th consecutive meeting, adding that the economic outlook has weakened and households remain cautious. RBNZ said little that would suggest it may bend to minority calls for additional easing, setting a target of 2.7% for its 90-day bill rate until June 2013. In Japan, the BOJ also kept its powder dry ahead of the Greek elections this weekend, leaving its asset purchase fund unchanged at ¥70T. The BOJ did upgrade its economic assessment for the first time since March, pointing to resiliency of domestic demand and improvement in exports. USD/JPY pair fell to a 1-week low below the ¥79 handle following the BOJ decision. AUD/USD regained parity following press reports that the German Bundesbank might start diversifying some of its reserves into the Aussy currency.



June 15 2012

Tough week and tough end to it, ended the day in negative. Really liked just one day, the rest was one whipsaw after another with rare good trades sprinkled here and there.  Happens sometimes - fortunately not very often.

Session Time: Fri Jun 15 00:00:00 2012
[09:07] {Threei}  Germany's Chancellor Merkel says Europe should simply start sticking to its promises
[09:07] {Threei}  good idea... now if the only could
[09:08] {scottie} gm
[09:08] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:12] {Threei}  some disconnects in the opening quotes
[09:12] {Threei}  SPY red, FCX and SLW green
[09:12] {Threei}  rare sight
[09:13] {scottie} ?? my spy is green (+.52)
[09:13] {Threei}  hmmm... something with y quotes?
[09:14] {nemo} http://devour.com/video/uncle-drew/
[09:14] {Threei}  133.3?
[09:14] {nemo} must not have adjusted for the dividend
[09:14] {scottie} yes, with close at 132.78
[09:15] {Threei}  why do I show close 133.49
[09:15] {thomcbell} dividend
[09:15] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:16] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:16] {Threei}  so, which is right?
[09:17] {scottie} my numbers are incorrect
[09:17] {scottie} on my graoh yesterday's close is at 133.49
[09:17] {scottie} graph
[09:20] {dptl} gm
[09:20] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:23] {ese} gm
[09:23] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:25] {dino} gm
[09:26] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:26] {ese} morning vad dino
[09:26] {Threei}  ese, dcc pls
[09:26] {Threei}  so... with big question mark hanging over this weekend's Greek election, which way is market going to bet
[09:28] {Threei}  I find I am able to argue both sides of the argument equally, lol
[09:29] {nemo} completely hedged
[09:29] {Threei}  let's be nimble for now
[09:29] {Threei}  see which way it leans
[09:29] {Threei}  I expect confusion to be major theme
[09:30] {dino} i don't get it, europe is basically going bankrupt and markets are going up
[09:30] {nemo} we're going bankrupt too
[09:30] {Threei}  in the process of falling apart it will inject a lot of newly created liquidity... that's marlet bet
[09:30] {nemo} if everybody is bankrupt, is anybody bankrupt?
[09:31] {nemo} I love anarchy
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .12 break hl
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  28 break hl
[09:33] {nemo} spy riding WR1
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1 if you got it
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  34 break
[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
[09:35] {Threei}  Invalidated  
[09:36] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Liikanen (Finland): Euro zone nations cannot cede too many powers to the center, need to maintain control over their own budgets- Euro zone needs more national liability and a better euro framework.
[09:36] {Threei}  then he had a shot of that great vodka called finland, and added: - Crises usually last ten years, the euro zone crisis isn't over yet.
[09:37] {Threei}  EMU is 12 years old
[09:37] {Threei}  10 years of crisis? lol
[09:37] {nemo} they live that long
[09:37] {Threei}  change FCX trigger to .90 break
[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .85 
[09:37] {thomcbell} Watching for double top to develop on FB 
[09:38] {Threei}  you can short it?
[09:38] {Threei}  still not available I think
[09:38] {thomcbell} oh i suppose not 
[09:38] {nemo} frickin' nav
[09:39] {Threei}  no go FCX
[09:40] {nemo} fcx here
[09:40] {dino} fosl sm s .26
[09:41] {dino} stop .54, -.28
[09:42] {Threei}  RCL
[09:42] {Threei}  put on radar for pullback entry
[09:43] {nemo} fcx 34 offer
[09:43] {Threei}  ideally around .25
[09:43] {nemo} addeded .01
[09:44] {Threei}  Officials: US to stop deporting and grant work permits to younger illegal immigrants
[09:45] {Threei}  because we have labot shortage, right?
[09:45] {nemo} right
[09:45] {Threei}  labor
[09:45] {nemo} this country is so weird
[09:45] {Threei}  RCL no pullbavk
[09:45] {nemo} stop to .94 on fcx
[09:46] {Threei}  let's see if it forms reversal instead
[09:47] {Threei} Short Setup: RCL  .55 break
[09:47] {Threei}  If holds  .65 
[09:47] {nemo} taking half fcx here .05
[09:47] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:47] {Threei}  good one nemo
[09:47] {nemo} ty
[09:48] {Threei}  wait out first break and rinse, take second setup... I should do that more often these rinsing days :)
[09:48] {nemo} quad witching hour no less
[09:48] {nemo} hurry up and wait day
[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: CCL  65 break
[09:49] {Threei}  If holds  .70 
[09:49] {nemo} stop to .98
[09:50] {thomcbell} QCOM 
[09:51] {Threei}  let's trail RCL to .61
[09:51] {thomcbell} seemingly easy short but such a quick setup 
[09:51] {ese} L RIO .51
[09:51] {Threei}  out
[09:52] {thomcbell} long setup ETN - 39.64 break if holding 39.54
[09:52] {nemo} iwm looks like breakout
[09:54] {nemo} oh well
[09:54] {dino}  fosl break .00 sm s
[09:54] {thomcbell} etn invalidated
[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .30 break hl
[09:54] {ese} might take that bet nemo
[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .20 
[09:55] {Threei}  what was that?
[09:55] {nemo} iwm breakout
[09:55] {thomcbell} long setup gld 157.81 break if hlding 157.70? Vad?
[09:55] {nemo} but, not yet
[09:55] {ese} ya
[09:55] {Threei}  *(US) JUN PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 74.1 V 77.5E
[09:55] {dino} 07 all red
[09:55] {scottie} tna -.23, that was fast
[09:56] {Threei}  chart looks right tbell
[09:56] {Threei}  but you see the action
[09:56] {thomcbell} y
[09:56] {nemo} tna is like that, keep jar of vaseline on desk
[09:56] {thomcbell} 1/2 lot probably 
[09:57] {Threei}  it's confidence numbers nemo
[09:57] {Threei}  now it does what it was going to
[09:58] {nemo} fcx again
[10:00] {ese} mrkt seems to be shrugging off u of m #'s
[10:00] {Threei}  yeah, it all doesn't matter
[10:01] {Threei}  europe is the ultimate decider of the next direction in bigger picture
[10:02] {Threei}  I don't remember this many rinses in one week
[10:02] {Threei}  look at TNA
[10:04] {thomcbell} slw may not work today but Daily chart starting to interest me 
[10:04] {thomcbell} on long 
[10:04] {thomcbell} looks coiled
[10:09] {thomcbell} lvs looking vulnerable 
[10:13] {Threei}  (US) President Obama to issue statement on immigration at 13:15ET- Plan purportedly issues amnesty to younger illegal immigrants
[10:14] {Threei}  need those ethic votes, you know
[10:15] {Threei}  ethnic
[10:15] {scottie} JBL?
[10:15] {nemo} hispanic to be specific
[10:16] {Threei}  too narrow for my taste
[10:16] {ese} out 1/2 RIO .72 +.21 1/2 lot to go
[10:16] {scottie} ok
[10:16] {dino}  gj
[10:17] {Beau} nice going ese
[10:17] {ese} stop to .57 balance
[10:17] {ese} tks
[10:17] {ese} free money
[10:18] {ese} ya gotta love a world that provides that.........
[10:18] {Threei}  that's what Greece said 10 years ago
[10:18] {ese} stopped
[10:18] {ese} lol
[10:18] {ese} +.06 on a 1/2 lot
[10:20] {thomcbell} short setup lvs 45.23 break if holding 45.38 - 1/2 lot 
[10:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break hl
[10:20] {dino} last try fosl sm s .25 
[10:20] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[10:22] {Threei}  change to .40 break
[10:23] {Threei}  change to .35 break
[10:23] {nemo} yeah, spy at weekly r1 
[10:24] {nemo} if this doesn't fly, waitu until spy gets to .20-.25, look for fas too
[10:25] {Threei}  change to .25 break
[10:25] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
[10:25] {nemo} think spy goes to pivot first
[10:26] {ese} have to go all....cya monday
[10:26] {Threei}  should trigger now
[10:26] {Threei}  target .55
[10:26] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:26] {scottie} leaving now, have a nice weekend all
[10:26] {Threei}  you too scottie
[10:29] {Threei}  1:1
[10:31] {Threei}  scalpers win
[10:31] {Threei}  couple cents to 1:2
[10:31] {thomcbell} lvs 1:1
[10:33] {nemo} this is the hardest op ex in a long time to trade
[10:33] {thomcbell} partialled lvs here at 45.06
[10:36] {thomcbell} took in somemore lvs 
[10:36] {thomcbell} stop on balance to 45.16 
[10:38] {Threei}  uptrend feels exhausted
[10:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .25 break
[10:39] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
[10:40] {thomcbell} flattening lvs here
[10:42] {Beau} valid again?
[10:42] {Threei}  yrd
[10:42] {Threei}  yes
[10:44] {thomcbell} long setup slw 27.90 break if holding 27.80 which is the pivot 
[10:45] {thomcbell} target 1:2
[10:45] {Threei}  changing TZA to .20
[10:45] {thomcbell} obviously closing at 28 even 
[10:46] {thomcbell} never ceases to amaze me 
[10:46] {Threei}  Invalidated  
[10:51] {Threei}  LVS looks to me ready for another step down
[10:51] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  45 break
[10:52] {Threei}  Invalidated  FOR  now but remainds on radar
[10:57] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .20 break
[10:57] {Threei}  If holds  .25 
[10:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .05 break
[10:58] {nemo} [artoa; bu OW{ 76.40 if it triggers
[10:58] {nemo} wow
[10:58] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:58] {Threei}  lol
[10:58] {nemo} partial by iwm 76.40 if it triggers
[10:59] {Threei}  LVS not ready yet
[11:00] {Threei}  this shapes up as the toughest week of this year
[11:00] {dino}  cov.fosl +.30
[11:00] {Threei}  no big losing days but the whipsaw is almost endless
[11:01] {Threei}  we had one typical day with 7 wins out of 8 calls
[11:01] {Threei}  the rest was nevereneding back and forth
[11:06] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .35 break
[11:07] {thomcbell} nice tight stop there on lvs 
[11:07] {thomcbell} thing is a nuisance though
[11:07] {thomcbell} now all the sudden it trades well
[11:07] {Threei}  what isn't this week, lol
[11:08] {Threei}  even nemo, usually so polite and generally pleasant, this week is pure nuisance
[11:09] {thomcbell} hehehe
[11:09] {Threei}  {G}
[11:09] {Threei}  I think he fainted
[11:10] {Threei}  or loads his gun... he doesn't usually forgive people for calling him pleasant
[11:15] {nemo} back and forth, was somebody insulting my curmudgeonly nature?
[11:16] {Threei}  someone totally insane suddenly came in here, called you "nice and plesant" and left in as hurry
[11:16] {nemo} not good
[11:16] {nemo} don't let them back in
[11:16] {nemo} get me their address
[11:16] {Threei}  I tried to grab him andf hold him down for you
[11:20] {nemo} iwm moves but spy doesn't really follow, and financials starting to weaken
[11:22] {nemo} probably looking at pullbacks to vwap 
[11:31] {Threei}  Hope of Coordinated Action Distract Markets from the Grim Reality in Athens
[11:32] {nemo} bad news being bought
[11:36] {nemo} now can this weakness break the trend lines, not so far
[11:40] {nemo} momentum continues to drop
[11:41] {Threei}  but price copntinues climbing
[11:42] {nemo} can't break trend line
[11:42] {nemo} ya know a stop flush is comng though
[11:50] {dino} gotta hop for hour or so, tenant issues
[11:51] {nemo} need help getting rid of the body?
[11:51] {dino} lol, no getting a new one, keys, etc
[11:51] {Threei}  lol
[11:53] {nemo} ok, this should be the drop to vwap, iwm vwap is on trendline also
[12:10] {nemo} better attach the chin pillow
[12:18] {nemo} arguably this is getting into long area
[12:18] {Threei}  so slow, it can be anything
[12:19] {nemo} yeah, just saying in dications, but I would rather wait until price action reaches trendlines plotted levels or vwap
[12:21] {nemo} figures
[12:25] {Threei}  drop
[12:25] {Threei}  (GR) S&P issues commentary on Greece exit impact on domestic companies
[12:26] {Threei}  nah, nothing significant
[12:28] {nemo} spy at vwap iwm coming into trend and fas looking long too, might bet a bounce
[12:39] {nemo} vwap .52 on iwm, spy at retracement and just below WS1
[12:58] {Threei}  if there is any common sense left in the world, we should see selling come ikn last hour
[12:59] {Threei}  then sagain... common sense isn't
[13:06] {Threei}  (GR) Sean Egan (Egan Jones): Greece cannot shoulder any debt
[13:06] {nemo} spy will test yesterday's highs
[13:07] {Threei}  (FR) France Govt said to expect bilateral relations with Germany to be unaffected following recent comments from Germany Chancellor Merkel
[13:08] {Threei}  (DE) German Chancellor Merkel: Europe must discuss growing differences in economic strength between France and Germany - comments from regular meeting with German state leaders- Germany will reject any 'quick fix' to crisis solution at upcoming G20, including Eurobonds or joint liabilities in the euro zone }- Germany is doing enough for consumer demand
[13:08] {Threei}  can you believe market goes up against such a backdrop?
[13:09] {nemo} yep, expecting huge QE
[13:09] {Threei}  but everything points out there won't be anything but little here and there
[13:09] {Threei}  Germany doesn't budge
[13:10] {nemo} market thinks when push comes to shove capitulation on the issue
[13:10] {Threei}  and doesn't look like it ever will
[13:12] {Threei}  I'll be back in 40 min guys, doc appointment
[[13:26] {Beau}  psychologist?
[13:33] {nemo} no, he committed suicide on him last year
[13:36] {nemo} interesting, gs at the top of it's range
[13:36] {nemo} look for a run if this keeps up
[14:00] {Threei}  back
[14:06] {Threei}  Ex-Soros Adviser Fujimaki Says Japan to Probably Default by 2017
[14:11] {Threei}  (GR) Greece New Democracy leader(pro bailout party) Samaras reiterates Greece will not leave the EMU; this weekend's elections are a choice between the Euro and the Drachma
[14:11] {Threei}  lol
[14:23] {nemo} looks like they want the spy 134 strikes
[14:25] {nemo} MPPs 78.00 and 134.25
[14:28] {nemo} this is pointing to huge up on Monday, question is, will they sell it off like last Monday
[14:29] {Threei}  well, it's still up tp result of election
[14:30] {nemo} Goldman knows
[14:50] {Threei}  if we finally come to some point where common sense returns to this planet, wasnt TZA near .50 fir antry with stop under .40
[14:53] {Threei}  yeah right
[14:53] {Threei}  no pullback whatsoever
[14:59] {Threei}  if we still get this drop to around .50, it'll constitute nice legit double bottom
[15:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[15:12] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[15:32] {nemo} I think we still go higher
[15:41] {nemo} financials on highs energy near highs IWM and SPY, we go higher monday, I would say big gap up
[15:42] {Threei}  out
[15:42] {Threei}  had a sell at .59, 1 cent short
[15:42] {nemo} spy takes out the 134 strikes
[15:43] {Threei}  I officially hate this week
[15:47] {nemo} spy going for Monthly Pivot
[15:47] {nemo} 13 minutes plenty of thime to go .14 cents
[15:49] {Threei}  PIMCO ?@PIMCO
[15:49] {Threei}  Gross: Global world war on deflation underway. Question is will they win and can asset markets benefit? Becoming doubtful as to latter
[15:57] {nemo} Vad...take Monday off, it's not gonna' be your kind of day
[15:57] {Threei}  lol
[15:57] {Threei}  can I watch?
[15:57] {nemo} weirdo
[15:57] {Threei}  hehe
[15:57] {Threei}  that's OK, I adjust quickly
[15:58] {Threei}  we will see how it goes
[15:58] {nemo} I would think spy 136 area
[15:58] {Threei}  we may get that gap of yors and sell off like crazy
[15:58] {Threei}  just like last Monday
[15:58] {Threei}  or we may gap down big if Cyritza wins
[15:58] {nemo} and there's MPP on SPY
[15:58] {Threei}  anywa, hated this week except for one day
[15:59] {nemo} no, because then the governments will be falling all over themselves to suck.....her placate him
[15:59] {Threei}  let's have a relaxing weekend and get them next week
[15:59] {dptl} gn
[16:00] {Threei}  look at TZA