June 26 2012

Not exactly our day as market ebbed and flowed with not much of pattern following. Happens sometimes when there is a lot of uncertainty and headlines are coming one after another. Got a few good trades but stops, even though well controlled, outweighed profit.

Session Time: Tue Jun 26 00:00:00 2012

[09:05] {jackharry} Good morning everyone

[09:05] {cc_8} sup jack

[09:05] {Threei}  morning jack

[09:11] {dino} gm

[09:11] {Threei}  dino :)

[09:15] {Beau} good morning you all

[09:15] {scottie} gm

[09:15] {Threei}  beau, scottie :)

[09:24] {Threei}  huh

[09:24] {Threei}  77% Oppose More U.S. Help to Bail Out Europe

[09:24] {Threei}  that's quite amazing... 23% seriously think US should throw money in that hole?

[09:24] {_dolores} GM

[09:25] {Threei}  dolores :)

[09:25] {ese} morning

[09:25] {cc_8} hello dolo

[09:25] {Threei}  ese :)

[09:25] {cc_8} orale ese

[09:26] {Threei}  GDX interestingly weak

[09:26] {ese} buongiorno cc

[09:26] {Threei}  .80 breakdown may turn a short trigger if we get consolidation

[09:27] {dptl} gm

[09:27] {Threei}  dp :)

[09:27] {ese} dddddddddpppppppppppppp

[09:27] {jimmy} gm all

[09:27] {ese} welcome jom

[09:27] {ese} jim

[09:27] {Threei}  jimmy :)

[09:28] {ese} jom is good too.......should he ever visit the board

[09:29] {Threei}  if anyone grabbed GDX, 1:1

[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .85 break

[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .93 

[09:31] {Threei}  no go

[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .75 break

[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .85 

[09:33] {Threei}  Invalidated  

[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .40 break

[09:35] {Threei}  hl

[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .50 

[09:35] {Threei}  1:1 if you got it

[09:35] {Threei}  broke a bit too fast

[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .05 break

[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .95 

[09:39] {Threei}  1:1

[09:40] {Threei}  should be capable of 1:2

[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  45 break

[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[09:41] {dino} stc jpm 36 calls +.40 and geoy 12.50 calls +.35

[09:42] {Threei}  target 1:2

[09:43] {Threei}  stop GDX

[09:43] {Threei}  AIG, out in full

[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .80 break

[09:45] {Threei}  If holds  .75 

[09:46] {Threei}  change to .70 break

[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .65 

[09:49] {Threei}  target .85 - .90, two partials

[09:50] {Threei}  stop's very tight

[09:50] {Threei}  holds well while SPY drops again

[09:50] {Threei}  so far so good

[09:51] {dino} aap

[09:51] {Threei}  out

[09:51] {Threei}  gravity took over

[09:52] {Threei}  watching FCX for bounce

[09:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break

[09:52] {Threei}  If holds  .75 

[09:53] {dino} aap sm l .01

[09:53] {Threei}  target .95 - 32, two partials

[09:54] {Threei}  while market direction is unclear, stops are tighter than usually

[09:54] {dino} out aap .38 ave, +.37

[09:54] {Threei}  wtg

[09:54] {dino} ty

[09:56] {Threei}  a few numbers are coming at 10

[09:56] {Threei}  June consumer confidence and richmond fed manufacturing

[09:56] {_dolores} stop in FCX?

[09:57] {Threei}  under .75

[09:58] {nemo} market thinks number good

[09:58] {Threei}  nope... -3 v 2E

[09:58] {Threei}  richmond

[09:59] {Threei}  no cc yet

[09:59] {Threei}  bad too

[09:59] {Threei}  62 v 63E

[09:59] {nemo} market not moving wtf

[10:00] {Threei}  out FCX

[10:00] {Threei}  not getting rhythm right

[10:01] {nemo} mon .21

[10:01] {Threei}  rinse

[10:01] {Threei}  crap

[10:01] {Threei}  this I hate

[10:02] {cc_8} im with you vad

[10:02] {nemo} second mouse gets the cheese

[10:02] {nemo} 1st mouse gets squashed

[10:02] {nemo} lotta volume .24 .25 mon

[10:03] {nemo} breaks .25 it's another entry, pivot's at .95, so not much room for short below

[10:03] {nemo} I"m adding if it gets above .25

[10:04] {Threei}  FCX at target now... thanks for that

[10:04] {Beau} vad fcx stp 74?

[10:05] {Beau} bad send vasd, sorry

[10:05] {nemo} I'm out

[10:05] {nemo} it's not going with the market

[10:06] {cipher} out fcx .93

[10:08] {cc_8} nice catch cipher

[10:08] {Threei}  this is very weird opening

[10:09] {Threei}  still trying to digest the move

[10:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  76 break

[10:13] {Threei}  If holds  .90 

[10:13] {nemo} god bless ya

[10:14] {ese} UPL....hows that for your basic cup and handle pattern

[10:15] {Threei}  no go

[10:15] {dino} fosl sm s .68

[10:15] {Threei}  one of us is off today - SPY or I

[10:16] {nemo} spy at daily pivot, likely bounce

[10:17] {nemo} how much???

[10:17] {Threei}  after that post-numbers spike I could swear we are about to have blast-off day

[10:17] {nemo} is the rocket pointed up or down?

[10:17] {Threei}  retreat to 131.60 was as clear buy as they get

[10:18] {Threei}  instead we got expnading range

[10:18] {nemo} .41 pivot

[10:18] {dino} cov fosl .35, +.33

[10:18] {nemo} frickin ppt is screwin with us

[10:19] {nemo} imo...distribution day

[10:20] {dino} lol ppt

[10:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .85 break

[10:21] {nemo} tna .71

[10:21] {nemo} playing this tight though

[10:21] {Threei}  .75 stop

[10:21] {nemo} 1/2 80

[10:21] {nemo} stop b/e

[10:22] {nemo} no energy in these bounces

[10:24] {nemo} sheesh

[10:24] {nemo} 1/4 more .93

[10:24] {Threei}  stop to .79

[10:25] {nemo} my stop still to b/e

[10:26] {Threei}  papercuts

[10:27] {nemo} it's the alcohol on the edges that stings

[10:27] {nemo} stop .74

[10:28] {nemo} veritable hair

[10:29] {nemo} this is gonna clunk

[10:29] {nemo} gnite

[10:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .20 break

[10:30] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[10:30] {Threei}  if this one doesn't work, I eat my keyboard

[10:31] {nemo} I can think of something else you can do with it...

[10:32] {nemo} tna .65

[10:32] {nemo} 1/2 lot

[10:33] {nemo} stop is .44  if I don't wuss first

[10:34] {nemo} $ on highs I"m out

[10:36] {nemo} o.k. the hole in my foot isn't that bad

[10:36] {cipher} tna l.70

[10:37] {Threei}  where is that salt and some butter

[10:41] {Threei}  putting them away for now

[10:43] {Threei}  (CY) ECB Cyprus Govt bonds now ineligible as collateral- Says Eurosystem will ensure stable funding of Cyprus banks - Cyprus banks will have to replace collateral

[10:44] {Threei}  what can they replace it with, labyrunth and minotautrus?

[10:44] {dino} and the first domino falls

[10:45] {Threei}  1:1

[10:45] {cipher} out tna .60 -.10

[10:45] {Threei}  half out

[10:45] {dino} fosl sm s .45 ave

[10:45] {Threei}  my keyboard is safe

[10:50] {Threei}  offering 1/4 more .39

[10:51] {thomcbell} lvs has some fighrt in it today 

[10:51] {dino} stop fosl .73, -.28. thing went up on mkt drop

[10:51] {Threei}  stop to .24

[10:52] {nemo} spy just bounced off trend

[10:55] {Threei}  ok, got this one 3/4 right

[10:55] {Threei}  need 3 more like this to fix the day

[10:56] {Beau} took .08 wanted to see what green looked like.  thks vad

[10:57] {Threei}  w

[11:05] {nemo} yo rinny

[11:06] {Threei}  wow

[11:06] {nemo} Merkel will not share debt as long as she lives

[11:06] {Threei}  (DE) Chancellor Merkel: WIll not have shared liability for debt as long as she lives

[11:06] {Threei}  that's quite a statement

[11:07] {nemo} When Black Tuesday comes....

[11:07] {nemo} death of the Euro

[11:07] {nemo} or Germany leaving it

[11:07] {Threei}  ok... let's catch a bounce to short

[11:08] {dino} fosl sm s .04

[11:09] {Threei}  was looking at TZA for .10 entry...

[11:10] {Threei}  grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[11:10] {ese} well.......what the H happened.....did Ben Bernackers open up his mouth somewhere

[11:10] {nemo} this is tradeable 

[11:10] {nemo} not

[11:11] {Threei}  ese... 11:06] {Threei} (DE) Chancellor Merkel: WIll not have shared liability for debt as long as she lives

[11:15] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Weidmann: There is no end in sight for the European debt crisis; Must not print money to clean up after governments- Central bank is bound by price stability mandate

[11:15] {Threei}  what is it, truth or dare day?

[11:15] {Threei}  and they finally pick truth?

[11:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break

[11:17] {Threei}  If holds  .30 

[11:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .80 break

[11:17] {Threei}  If holds  .70 

[11:17] {nemo} mmmhhhh....that's capitulation volume in spy

[11:18] {dino} fosl stop flat

[11:18] {Threei}  FAZ invalidated

[11:18] {dino} pvh sm l .05

[11:21] {Threei}  nah

[11:23] {nemo} when you see a coupla million shares of spy trade in 2 minutes, direction is getting iffy

[11:24] {Threei}  this whole day is offy

[11:25] {nemo} yeah...IWM bottomed at a swing low, and yesterday's spy bottom is the Quarterly S1

[11:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  APOL  .25 break hl

[11:37] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[11:38] {dino} out pvh .38, +.33

[11:38] {nemo} I took small spxu .85

[11:39] {nemo} stop under .80

[11:42] {Threei}  APOL, cnage of plan

[11:42] {Threei} Short Setup: APOL  35 breeak

[11:42] {Threei}  hl

[11:42] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[11:43] {nemo} 1/2 .90

[11:43] {nemo} oy

[11:48] {Threei}  1:1

[11:48] {nemo} I'm out, needless to say

[11:52] {Threei}  1:2

[11:52] {Threei}  out

[11:52] {Threei}  may have more in it but I need to secure this

[11:53] {Threei}  of course

[11:53] {Threei}  lol

[12:04] {nemo} looks like we're breaking higher

[12:05] {nemo} not that I want to play a breakout in this dreck, lunchtime in the summer

[12:05] {Threei}  12:06(IT) Italy Monti said to have denied earlier rumors of intent to resign following push for Eurobonds - financial press

[12:06] {Threei}  could it be that we are witnessing final days of this drama...

[12:07] {nemo} tempting to short this though

[12:07] {nemo} iwm at pivot, spy at ws1

[12:19] {Threei}  feels like topping pattern forms

[12:20] {Threei}  FAZ

[12:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .30 break

[12:21] {Threei}  If holds  20 

[12:24] {dptl} hog .10 short?

[12:25] {Threei}  I think so

[12:25] {Threei}  aggressive for 46 break

[12:25] {dptl} not available

[12:28] {thomcbell} short setup qcom 53.83 break if holding 53.91 

[12:32] {thomcbell} invalidated

[12:39] {Threei}  (EU) Officials now expect Eurogroup chief Juncker will not step down as previously planned and stay on for a fourth term - financial press (UPDATE)- Due to concerns about Germany becoming too dominant on the policy making council, official no longer expect Luxembourg's Juncker to step aside and allow the German Fin Min Schaeuble to take over leadership of the Eurogroup as had previously been expected

[12:39] {Threei}  lol... they expect Germany to shell out money but not dictate policy

[12:40] {Threei}  fat chance

[12:41] {dino} they are going tp force germany out

[12:42] {_dolores} without germany no euro

[12:42] {_dolores} FAZ at lows

[12:43] {Threei}  SPY looks like breakout coming

[12:43] {Threei}  no FAZ entry here for me

[12:43] {_dolores} this market crazy today

[12:43] {Threei}  the wierdest I've seen in a good while

[12:43] {nemo} cuz ur here

[12:44] {nemo} nothing like the good old days of opening up limit down

[12:53] {dino} dolores, reverse your thinking. without germany they can monitize the bad debts/inflate them away

[12:54] {Threei}  and get hyperinflation

[12:55] {dino} perhaps in time, but they are not concerned w/inflation right now, deflation is the bigger worry

[12:55] {nemo} yeah, it's likely Germany leaving the Euro is the easiest option

[12:55] {dino} deflation is always the bigger fear, it means they have lost control

[12:55] {nemo} means all the banks go bust

[12:57] {nemo} spy coming into trend support here

[12:58] {jackharry} dino, countries leaving the euro and having their own currencies might make economic sense, but this whole project has never been about economics, it's always been about creating a politically united europe by the back door, and what is good for individual countries or the people doesn't count. They are not interested in what is right for their people, they  

[12:59] {nemo} yeah...and it failed

[12:59] {jackharry} are only intesested in saving the euro and the "european project"

[13:02] {nemo} spy bouncing at trend

[13:03] {_dolores} dont know dino germany is the machine saving the rest of the continent

[13:03] {_dolores} is very different from USA

[13:03] {nemo} yeah, but unless they lend, they can't kick the can down the road any longer...and the Germans are reticent to finance everybody else

[13:04] {nemo} the experiment has failed...they know it

[13:04] {_dolores} here in europe health, jobless. all is socialized and available

[13:04] {nemo} depends where you are

[13:04] {_dolores} spain withput europe for example was like greece

[13:05] {nemo} In Germany private insurance buys you more than public insurance

[13:05] {_dolores} poor, non developed

[13:05] {_dolores} the boost started when t

[13:05] {nemo} In England, a friend of mine left brain surgery because she couldn't make a living, and became a psychiatrist

[13:05] {_dolores} they entered the euro

[13:05] {jackharry} that's the problem dolores, it's not one country like the usa, a common currency without a fiscal and political union can just never work

[13:05] {nemo} entering the euro allowed those countries to borrow money and avoid producing

[13:06] {_dolores} yes I agree

[13:06] {nemo} Yeah, we were talking about that in grad school back in the late 80's but all the "europeans" in the program disagreed

[13:06] {nemo} oh well...

[13:07] {_dolores} I agree jack they should have a political and fiscal union definitely

[13:07] {_dolores} but very difficult!!!

[13:07] {_dolores} these polititians are crap

[13:07] {_dolores} see you later guys

[13:08] {jackharry} it's very difficult because the vast majority of the people don't want it, but then of course when has what the people actually wanted counted for anything!

[13:08] {Threei}  such union won't work either

[13:08] {Threei}  too different cultures

[13:08] {jackharry} i agree completely

[13:08] {jackharry} the whole project is flawed

[13:09] {Threei}  this prject was not sustainable from the get-go, and will fail inevitably

[13:09] {Threei}  the sooner it fails, the less p[ain there will be

[13:09] {nemo} political "solutions" are never operationally optimal

[13:09] {Threei}  the longer they drag it out, the wprst the outcome

[13:10] {Threei}  "the worse"

[13:10] {dino} i agree w/you jackharry. it was a political move, not fiscal. now it is time to pay the piper. and germany is sick of picking up the tab. they are waiting to be forced out imo

[13:11] {jackharry} unfortunately the european political elite is completely wedded to the idea, and have spent 20 years lying to the people regarding the nature of what they have been doing. They are not going to stop now

[13:11] {dino} and i appreciate what dolores is saying, but again, it all comes down to the "golden rule". HE WHO HAS THE GOLD (germany) RULES!

[13:11] {Threei}  totally... they whole career is devoted to this

[13:11] {Threei}  their

[13:12] {Threei}  imbeciles like borosso never stop

[13:12] {dino} agree 3i, politicians do not care about what is right/what works. they care about being elected

[13:13] {Threei}  do we get double top on SPY or does it break out

[13:13] {Threei}  I honeastly can't tell

[13:13] {Threei}  -a

[13:13] {dino} dt gut feel

[13:13] {Threei}  be back in 20, maybe with clearer head

[13:17] {thomcbell} qcom had a good one with 54.12 break - 

[13:17] {thomcbell} didnt play that one 

[13:18] {thomcbell} now its melting

[13:26] {nemo} iwm coming into trend here and it looks like it might want higher

[13:35] {ese} ese has been here but too distracted to get much trading done........

[13:39] {nemo} looks like bull flags on iwm spy and fas

[13:43] {Threei}  Cyprus bailout is likely to be 10B, 60% of GDP

[13:47] {Threei}  still can't decipher the direction

[13:48] {Threei}  drop, bounce, no setup for either, no signs of either coming

[13:48] {nemo} I lean towards higher at the moment

[13:49] {Threei}  me too but my problem is, these moments come and go

[13:49] {Threei}  is the what senility looks like?

[13:49] {Threei}  if so, I am so looking forwqrasd...

[14:10] {dino} guess tomorrow is down big. up big, down big, up big, down big. bi-polar market

[14:10] {thomcbell} iwm at pivot here 

[14:10] {thomcbell} is that right 

[14:14] {Threei}  nemo is the best to answer... when he puts the bottle down

[14:15] {nemo} nah, no weakness yet, this is being led by spy and financials

[14:15] {dptl} apol is not going with market .50 short may be?

[14:15] {nemo} watch spy at .33

[14:15] {Threei}  I like it dp

[14:15] {Threei}  good observation

[14:16] {dptl} with .60 stop

[14:17] {dptl} in

[14:21] {nemo} yeah, it was pivot sorry, thought you wanted to short

[14:23] {Threei}  cool beans

[14:23] {dptl} out .30

[14:23] {Threei}  wtg dp

[14:23] {Threei}  good find, good execution

[14:24] {dptl} ty

[14:32] {nemo} trendline spy iwm

[14:32] {nemo} iwm also nera pivot

[14:36] {dino} gj dp

[14:37] {dptl} ty

[14:38] {nemo} could argue iwm long above .95-.90 but stretched so much wouldn't push more than a scalp

[14:38] {nemo} rather wait for spy to get back to 132ish

[14:51] {Threei}  *(DE) EGAN JONES CUTS GERMANY

[14:51] {dino} guys, gotta hop. cya tomorrow

[14:51] {Threei}  take care dino

[14:52] {dino} u2

[15:08] {_dolores} on what is this market breaking out now?

[15:08] {nemo} when they try to take it down buying comes in, natural reaction, take it the other way

[15:09] {nemo} when we couldn't sell off below yesterday's lows on Merkel's statement...which was significant, natural momentum takes it the other way until you run ouot of buyers

[15:09] {Threei}  my best guess is, every peice of bad news is being taken as a hint that a huge money printining is about to come, in this or that form, as politicians are trying to rescue their crumbling dream

[15:10] {_dolores} oh ok

[15:10] {Threei}  and while it's a bad news for a pedestrian, for the market it's just an injection of new money

[15:12] {nemo} notice last two weeks I think we've been basically flat, we have to close this gap

[15:13] {_dolores} ZNGA 

[15:13] {_dolores} going nuts

[15:13] {Threei}  still... my feeling is, in this case market is in denial, and not discounting the right outcome

[15:13] {Threei}  ZNGA Hearing Pacific Crest making cautious comments (timing uncertain); Shares reverse gains to fall over 5%

[15:14] {Threei}  eventual outcome is going to be EU/Euro collapse, and not a printing spree

[15:14] {Threei}  just my presonal feeling

[15:15] {nemo} I'm seeing underlying weakness

[15:17] {Threei}  ZNGA CEO: Zynga is in a symbiotic relationship with Facebook; Not a competitor - CNBC (5.72, -0.34, -5.61%)

[15:24] {dptl} .

[15:26] {_dolores} thxs Threei:)

[15:26] {Threei}  np

[15:26] {_dolores} take cre guys

[15:26] {_dolores} care

[15:27] {Threei}  you too

[15:39] {Threei}  NYSE volume 490M shares, about 11% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 2.1:1. - NASDAQ volume 1.30B shares, about 6% below its three-month average; advancers lead decliners by 1.4:1.

[15:40] {nemo} yeah, but summer trading too

[15:45] {Threei}  last attempt to squeeze something

[15:45] {Threei}  in TZA

[15:45] {Threei}  .66

[15:46] {Threei}  stop under .60

[15:48] {Threei}  half out .72

[15:48] {Threei}  stop to .63

[15:50] {Threei}  1/4 more out

[15:52] {dptl} bby

[15:53] {Threei}  not fixing the day but takes an insult down a notch

[15:55] {dptl} gn all

[15:55] {Threei}  wait!

[15:55] {Threei}  out last piece .79

[15:56] {Threei}  whew

[15:56] {Threei}  now go :)

[15:56] {dptl} :) 

[15:56] {dptl} good job Vad

[15:57] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening, we will get them tomorrow

June 25 2012

Nice strong start to the week with 6 wins and two 5-6 cents stops. Take a look at the discussion of the call from  13:05 to 13:09 and view the 1 min chart of FCX to track the train of thoughts.



Session Time: Mon Jun 25 00:00:00 2012
[08:58] {dino} gm
[08:58] {Threei}  morning dino
[08:59] {jackharry} Good morning everyone
[08:59] {Threei}  morning jack, welcome aboard
[09:00] {jackharry} Thank you
[09:00] {Threei}  (EU) German Chancellor Merkel: Aim is Political Union with stronger oversight; Mutual liability is both politically and economically wrong- Rejects joint deposit insurance if it means joint liability - Rejects joint Euro bonds and joint Euro bills
[09:01] {Threei}  wow... she is still holding out
[09:01] {Threei}  can't help but applaud
[09:01] {Threei}  the pressure on her is enormous
[09:01] {dino} she should opt out of euro
[09:01] {Threei}  no kidding
[09:01] {dino} cut germanys' losses
[09:02] {nemo} mmmmhhhhthe stress hasn't caused her to lose any weight
[09:05] {Threei}  and Soros is predictably jerk:
[09:05] {Threei}  �Merkel has emerged as a strong leader,� Soros said. �Unfortunately, she has been leading Europe in the wrong direction.�
[09:05] {Threei}  He called on Europe to set up a fund to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, saying that a failure by leaders meeting this week to produce drastic measures could be fatal.
[09:05] {Threei}  can you believe this?
[09:07] {Threei}  and ECB lowered collateral treshold
[09:07] {Threei}  lol
[09:07] {Threei}  their loans were of such high quality up to now, may afford some relaxing
[09:13] {Threei}  InTrade odds individual health care mandate ruled unconstitutional now up to 73.7%
[09:14] {Threei}  oh yeah, decision should be announced today
[09:14] {jimmy} GM everyone
[09:14] {Threei}  this should be interesting
[09:14] {Threei}  jimmy :)
[09:14] {dptl} gm
[09:14] {scottie} gm
[09:14] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:15] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:15] {Threei}  missed a good week jimmy... :(
[09:15] {Beau} good morning all
[09:15] {jimmy} Yeah, got to work though. My schedules are unpredictable.
[09:16] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:23] {Threei}  Morgan Stanley will let its 18,000 financial advisers use Twitter... with pre-written tweets
[09:23] {Threei}  must follow I guess
[09:24] {Threei}  main question for the open: wait a few min or jump right in
[09:26] {Threei}  FAZ
[09:26] {Threei}  .20 break looks tempting
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[09:32] {nemo} spy bounce around .75
[09:32] {Threei}  FAZ got away unless you were willing to enter premarket
[09:33] {Threei}  FCX, change to .25 break
[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[09:34] {nemo} o.k. bounced at .76
[09:34] {Threei}  lol
[09:34] {Threei}  FCX valid
[09:35] {Threei}  .36 stop
[09:36] {Threei}  takes too long... trail to .31
[09:36] {nemo} SPY already at extreme range for day
[09:36] {Threei}  morning trades should develop faster
[09:37] {Threei}  to .26
[09:37] {Threei}  1:1
[09:38] {scottie} +.10 ty Vad
[09:38] {Threei}  yw
[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .25
[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .15
[09:41] {Threei}  let's scratch it
[09:41] {nemo} When Black Monday comes ....channeling Steely Dan
[09:41] {Threei}  SPY is sick still
[09:41] {Threei}  out .21
[09:41] {Threei}  FCX 1:2, out
[09:42] {nemo} time for the hemrhoid pillow I think
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .45 break hl
[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[09:45] {Threei}  ugh IWM
[09:45] {Threei}  LVS 1:1
[09:46] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:49] {_dolores} GM
[09:49] {Threei}  morning dolores
[09:50] {Threei}  missed couple good ones...
[09:51] {ese} morning.....late to the party
[09:51] {Threei}  morning ese
[09:51] {nemo} mos looking short
[09:51] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .40 break
[09:51] {Threei}  hl
[09:52] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[09:52] {Threei}  a bit too jumpy, so hl
[09:52] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:53] {dino} kex sm l .59
[09:54] {dino} geoy sm l .49
[09:54] {Threei}  1:1
[09:54] {Threei}  play by the book
[09:55] {Threei}  half and trail to b/e
[09:55] {nemo} o.k. careful spy coming into DB
[09:55] {Threei}  right
[09:55] {Threei}  I feel it will fail
[09:55] {nemo} just saying careful
[09:55] {Threei}  but may bounce first, enough to rinse
[09:56] {Threei}  yeah, my point is - careful enough to partial, not believing in it enough to go long
[09:56] {nemo} oh oh, I had the same thought
[09:56] {nemo} IWM higher low
[09:56] {nemo} New home sales coming
[09:56] {Threei}  at 10
[09:57] {ese} geoy.....working
[09:57] {dino} indeed
[09:57] {Threei}  Consensus expectation: 346Ke v 343K prior
[09:58] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:58] {Threei}  OK, let's sit out numbers and see what transpires next
[09:58] {ese} L rio .05
[09:58] {Threei}  we are 3 1/2 out of 4
[10:00] {dino} out geoy .93, +.45
[10:00] {ese} I like the way this works.......while i'm typing my buy on the board i look up and voila....the stock has jumped up 10cents.......you never told me about this bonus vad...awesome
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) MAY NEW HOME SALES: 369K V 346KE
[10:00] {ese} nice
[10:00] {Threei}  lol ese
[10:01] {ese} out 1/2 3/4 lot .17 +.12
[10:02] {ese} stop to break even balance
[10:02] {dino} out kex .47, -.12, bad entry
[10:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
[10:03] {ese} this keeping up to the Jones' is over rated.....it's the keeping up to the Dino's of the world thats a buggar!!!!!
[10:03] {Threei}  lol
[10:03] {dino} hardly
[10:04] {Threei}  lay out half TZA just under .90
[10:04] {Threei}  stop .74
[10:05] {Threei}  here is half out
[10:05] {Threei}  scalpers know what to do
[10:05] {Threei}  stop to .79
[10:06] {nemo} iwm holding trend for the moment
[10:07] {ese} phewwww....escaped death on rio balance.....
[10:09] {ese} ohhhhhh nooooooo ......arggggghhhhhh stopped balance .04 -.01
[10:10] {Threei}  stop to .84
[10:10] {dino} kex sm l .70
[10:10] {Threei}  no lose territory, gotta try and squeeze something else using house money
[10:11] {Threei}  1:2
[10:11] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[10:11] {scottie} 1/2 .89 and 1/2 .98 ty Vad
[10:11] {Threei}  :)
[10:12] {Threei}  good numbers cause spike - and traders use it to exit, dumping index back to low
[10:12] {Threei}  what does it tell us?
[10:12] {Threei}  bear is in da house
[10:12] {dino} kex stop-.30
[10:12] {Threei}  stop to .89 for the last piece
[10:13] {Threei}  SPY loses .40, we get another leg down in a hurry
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ.70  break
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .70 break
[10:17] {Threei}  (EU) ECB Nowotny: Favors EFSF bond purchases over buying itself- Greek talks can't start with wish for more time
[10:17] {dino} kex last try sm l .00
[10:18] {dino} out kex .40, +.40
[10:18] {Threei}  last part TZA out
[10:18] {Threei}  1 cent to 1:3
[10:18] {nemo} tna .95 for a scalp
[10:18] {nemo} might not get there
[10:19] {Threei}  no healthcare ruling today
[10:19] {Threei}  let's trail FAZ to .64
[10:19] {nemo} in
[10:19] {Threei}  out
[10:20] {Threei}  band is a bit overstretched
[10:20] {nemo} out, no bounce
[10:21] {Threei}  (DK) Denmark PM Thorning-Schmidt: Richer European countries should be the one to provide more economic stimulus
[10:21] {Threei}  right
[10:22] {dino} lod
[10:23] {Threei}  when does a defaulting debtor have an upper hand over creditor? - when a loan is big enough to bankrupt a creditor
[10:24] {nemo} 131.15 next level for spy should coincide with spy bottom
[10:28] {thomcbell} long setup qcom 53.70 break if holding day low
[10:28] {Threei}  feels like bounce is coming
[10:28] {thomcbell} target 54
[10:28] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .20 break
[10:29] {Threei}  If holds  .15  scalpersa, .10 day traders
[10:30] {thomcbell} using 53.60 as stop in qcom
[10:30] {thomcbell} so 1:1 here
[10:30] {Threei}  *(US) JUN DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING: 5.8 V -1.0E
[10:31] {thomcbell} long setup FIO 20.40 break if holding 20.25 half lot
[10:31] {dino} kex sm l .41
[10:31] {nemo} well, so much for that bounce
[10:31] {Threei}  let's take half off
[10:31] {ese} numbers coming in ahead
[10:32] {thomcbell} partialling qcom 53.85
[10:32] {Threei}  and trail to .18
[10:32] {Threei}  I'd trust this bounce more if it occured with no good numbers
[10:33] {thomcbell} fio 1:1 kind of
[10:33] {thomcbell} hehe
[10:33] {Threei}  1:1ish? :)
[10:33] {thomcbell} correct sir
[10:33] {nemo} btw...IWM bottom coincides with the 200 day SMA
[10:34] {dino} out kex .76, +.35
[10:34] {Threei}  wtg
[10:35] {dino} ty
[10:35] {thomcbell} qcom 1:2
[10:35] {nemo} think we get bounce here
[10:36] {thomcbell} qcom out 53.96
[10:37] {dino} ty tbell, out qcom +.20
[10:37] {Threei}  out second half IWM
[10:38] {dino} geoy sm l .66
[10:38] {thomcbell} fio legitimate now
[10:39] {thomcbell} partialled at 20.55
[10:41] {thomcbell} out fio 20.50
[10:42] {thomcbell} market a bit angry here
[10:42] {thomcbell} taking a chop more than fine in this environ
[10:42] {Threei}  Russia preparing new attempt at Syrian arms shipment, 're-insures' ship under Russian flag
[10:42] {Threei}  that recet button works really well
[10:43] {Threei}  reset too
[10:43] {thomcbell} looking for another qcom entry near day low
[10:44] {nemo} that daily looks horrible
[10:44] {thomcbell} qcom yes
[10:45] {Threei}  starts looking ,like another breakdown is coming
[10:45] {Threei}  in SPY
[10:45] {dino} gut says "yes"
[10:45] {Threei}  FAZ
[10:46] {Threei}  will try again
[10:46] {Threei}  .75
[10:46] {Threei}  half lot
[10:46] {Threei}  still hard to evaluate how much downside is left
[10:46] {Threei}  stop will be .64
[10:47] {thomcbell} looks like test of 200 sma will happen in spx
[10:48] {nemo} still a ways away if it reaches it today
[10:51] {ese} L rio .86
[10:51] {Threei}  invalidated for now
[10:55] {ese} looking for that big leather boot your service provides for unco-operative stocks vad
[10:55] {ese} ahhhhhhhh wait a minute.......there we go
[10:56] {ese} hmmmmm no
[10:57] {ese} rats....the fish that got away...thought about stz on the pullback at .25........hmmmmmm should coulda woulda
[10:58] {Threei}  RIO works, doesn't it?
[10:58] {Threei}  and is about to break 45... and, how do you spell it...
[10:58] {Threei}  iksplode
[10:58] {nemo} rio looks short here
[10:59] {ese} ya.....i like the way this one trades during hours.......tends to gap up or dn pre mrkt...other than that a good trading one
[10:59] {nemo} topped out at vwap
[10:59] {Threei}  not to me... it's SPY pullback that kept it from an all-out break for now
[11:00] {ese} eekkkspaaaalode.....i believe is the correct spelling
[11:00] {ese} lol
[11:00] {Threei}  I'll take your word for it, English is your native after all
[11:00] {ese} ah well....stop is in at break even.....free money at this point
[11:01] {ese} lol
[11:01] {Threei}  but any other spelling that "eqzaktly," and I'll have to question it
[11:01] {ese} why yes it is.......
[11:01] {nemo} yeah, but he's a frickin' musician
[11:01] {ese} that too
[11:01] {Threei}  don't hold it against him nemo... he has some valid excuses
[11:02] {Threei}  ok RIO
[11:02] {Threei}  chew through that wall
[11:02] {ese} daaaaaaaa
[11:03] {Threei}  let's call it "guilty with explanation" nemo... re: ese being a musician
[11:04] {Threei}  SPY is still in the way
[11:04] {ese} aaaaaaarrrrrrrrggggghhhhhhhh........phewwwwwww
[11:04] {nemo} you guys long rio...oops
[11:05] {ese} ahhhhhhhhh   arrrrrggghhhhh
[11:05] {Threei}  ese is from .86
[11:05] {nemo} I'm short from .95
[11:05] {ese} play by play of writhing in my chari
[11:05] {ese} chair
[11:05] {nemo} 1:1
[11:06] {nemo} hehehehe
[11:06] {ese} nope stopped .81 +.00
[11:06] {nemo} stop above the whole
[11:06] {ese} sorry .86
[11:06] {ese} was worth the gamble
[11:08] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Lacker: Nothing is ever a foregone conclusion with regards to further stimulus
[11:08] {Threei}  wrong... that it's destined to dig a deeper hole for all of us IS a foregone conclusion
[11:10] {Threei}  now, this is the best joke of the day:
[11:10] {Threei}  (EU) European Union plans offering of benchmark bond due 2028 - financial press
[11:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  SPXU  .05 break
[11:17] {Threei}  If holds  53
[11:19] {nemo} stop .91 on rio
[11:19] {Threei}  Invalidated
[11:19] {Threei}  was an attempt to find the way to play SPY breakdown had it come to fruition
[11:20] {nemo} fio
[11:20] {thomcbell} ?
[11:20] {nemo} mistype
[11:21] {nemo} been hanging around vad too long
[11:21] {Threei}  me too
[11:21] {dino} geoy sm l .24 ave
[11:21] {Threei}  guy's insufferable
[11:22] {nemo} rio back to vwap
[11:25] {Threei}  market stalled, I am in waiting mode... so far so good, 5 wins and two small stops (about 5 cents each)
[11:26] {nemo} gap up, gap down-always tame
[11:26] {nemo} well, almost always
[11:28] {Threei}  lol, twitter jokers...
[11:28] {Threei}  f there's a Grexit will it be followed by Spanic and the Quitaly
[11:29] {thomcbell} long setup bbby 60.01 break if holding 59.91
[11:30] {nemo} progressively lower highs spy
[11:30] {thomcbell} invalidated
[11:30] {thomcbell} still watching it for an entry
[11:31] {thomcbell} buy back in place - now big offer at 60 on bbby
[11:33] {thomcbell} Quitaly is better coinage than Mario Batali's Eataly
[11:40] {thomcbell} bbby 59.65 break if holding 59.55
[11:41] {thomcbell} target 60
[11:56] {thomcbell} tightening risk to 59.60 on bbby
[11:58] {Threei}  SPXU was the right idea, but no setup
[11:59] {thomcbell} lost 0.07 cents with slippage on bbby
[12:05] {Threei}  yprus applies for EU bailout
[12:05] {Threei}  Cyprus
[12:09] {nemo} could make an argument for tna here
[12:10] {nemo} we're so stretched the low is not gonna' give an ideal setup
[12:16] {nemo} should have taken my own advice
[12:17] {Threei}  can't blame you for skipping it
[12:17] {Threei}  was pretty much 50/50
[12:17] {nemo} yeah I understand
[12:18] {nemo} iwm broke it's downtrend, spy about to
[12:18] {Threei}  pullback hunt in order
[12:18] {nemo} Ithink we do the vwap run here
[12:21] {nemo} Now for a little verbal diarrhea:
[12:21] {nemo} I was thinking long because you had two significant supports.  200 daily sma on IWM and QS1 on SPY
[12:21] {nemo} everything is quiet, everybody is afraid
[12:22] {nemo} We're in the lunch hour where they like to change direction
[12:22] {nemo} Now I didn't pull the trigger, and I didn't get my classic setups, although there were setups
[12:22] {Threei}  pullback should come now, and is likely to be the only chance to catch some profits on a long side
[12:23] {nemo} also, IWM's vwap was in relatively easy reach where it currently topped at .30 which also it's weekly S1
[12:23] {nemo} o.k. done puking
[12:23] {Threei}  ideally, IWM entry around .20 or just under,
[12:24] {Threei}  and FCX between .60 and .65
[12:26] {nemo} gdx long .11
[12:27] {nemo} stop just under .00  I was late on that
[12:30] {Threei}  first sign of strength from here
[12:31] {Threei}  IWM
[12:31] {Threei}  in
[12:31] {Threei}  .23
[12:31] {Threei}  .15 stop
[12:32] {Threei}  target half out near .30 and second half betweem .35 anfd .40
[12:32] {nemo} tna .91
[12:32] {nemo} well if it get's back there
[12:34] {nemo} out gdx
[12:35] {Threei}  US President Obama 'pleased' with high court immigration ruling, but 'concerned' about remaining provision - @AP
[12:35] {Threei}  yes, police officer's right to check on immigration status is a grave concern
[12:37] {nemo} i'm out
[12:41] {nemo} rinse
[12:41] {Threei}  half out
[12:42] {Threei}  stop to .19
[12:42] {scottie} half out .28
[12:42] {Threei}  that was self-infliced wound on your part, nemo
[12:42] {nemo} yeah
[12:42] {nemo} aren't they all
[12:42] {Threei}  no... some are wife0inflicetd
[12:42] {Threei}  wife-inflicted
[12:43] {nemo} why I'm not married
[12:43] {thomcbell} lord
[12:43] {nemo} well...imo, probably not theirs
[12:43] {nemo} they all sobered up before I could get them down the aisle
[12:44] {nemo} spy looking like it's setting up vwap run
[12:44] {nemo} 131.45 or so
[12:44] {nemo} big C&H
[13:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .65 break
[13:03] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[13:04] {Threei}  half out .72 - .73
[13:04] {Threei}  and another near .80
[13:05] {dptl} Vad, what is the reason for that fcx trade?
[13:05] {Threei}  pullback entry, prepared way in advance
[13:06] {Threei}  12:22] {Threei} pullback should come now, and is likely to be the only chance to catch some profits on a long side
[13:06] {Threei}  12:23] {Threei} ideally, IWM entry around .20 or just under,
[13:06] {Threei}  [12:24] {Threei} and FCX between .60 and .65
[13:06] {Threei}  half out
[13:07] {Threei}  look at 1 min, see .60 being important support for a good while,
[13:07] {Threei}  from about 11:20 to 12:10?
[13:07] {dptl} ye .50 and .55
[13:07] {dptl} .60
[13:07] {Threei}  then got broken with immediate recross back and trend chenge
[13:08] {Threei}  so, pullback to such significant priice level is worth watching for entry
[13:08] {Threei}  it retreated to .61, hesitated between .61 nd 65 for a while,
[13:08] {Threei}  making .65 long trigger
[13:08] {jackharry} half out at .74
[13:08] {Threei}  with nicve tight stop right under ,.60
[13:09] {Threei}  if it lost .60 without triggering I'd switch to .55 - .60 setup
[13:09] {dptl} i see
[13:09] {Threei}  anf if it lost .55 whole thing would be off
[13:10] {Threei}  now that you've got a window in my mind inner workings... are you scared?
[13:11] {Threei}  offer 1/4 more .78 - .79
[13:11] {Threei}  and let's see if we can ride last portion to about .90
[13:15] {nemo} gdx rinse too
[13:17] {nemo} long setups
[13:17] {nemo} spy iwm
[13:23] {dptl} chk 17 long?
[13:24] {Threei}  ummm
[13:25] {Threei}  not sure
[13:25] {Threei}  1/4 more out FCX
[13:26] {Threei}  stop .69
[13:42] {scottie} 3 partials +.06, +.12 and +.05, ty Vad
[13:43] {Threei}  :)
[13:58] {nemo} anybody take iwm or spy?
[13:59] {nemo} mmmhhhhh....crickets
[14:00] {Threei}  don't ruin our coma
[14:03] {dino} out geoy .75, +.51
[14:04] {Threei}  nice
[14:10] {dino} ty
[14:31] {Threei}  gas prices on island crashed from $1.40 a litre to $1 percents over the course of 5 days
[14:31] {Threei}  dp, what is it in Vancouver?
[14:32] {dptl} xmm...i'll check today, no idea
[14:33] {dptl} $1 per litre on island???
[14:33] {Threei}  yup
[14:33] {Threei}  http://www.victoriagasprices.com/
[14:33] {Threei}  about 30% dump in 5 days
[14:34] {dptl} was 1.40-1.43 here last time i cheked
[14:35] {dptl} 1.34 it's says in Vancouver
[14:36] {nemo} that's still about $5.20/gallon...oy vay, I think we're around $3.29
[14:36] {nemo} a gallon
[14:36] {Threei}  gallon is what, 2.8 litre?
[14:37] {nemo} almost 4 liters
[14:37] {dptl} 3.8
[14:37] {Threei}  ah
[14:37] {Threei}  then we are at $3.88 today
[14:39] {jackharry} Only about the equivalent of $10 a gallon here!!
[14:39] {Threei}  ouch
[14:39] {nemo} where u?
[14:39] {Threei}  your goverment is the grediest of all
[14:40] {Threei}  greediest
[14:40] {nemo} JohnHarold where are you?
[14:40] {Threei}  but it's of course out of the best intentions - gotta stop that global warming, you know
[14:40] {jackharry} Northern Ireland
[14:40] {jackharry} the amount of tax is obscene
[14:41] {nemo} ahhhh...and of course, you can't run a vehicle on Guiness
[14:41] {Threei}  you are so not kidding...
[14:41] {Beau} $3.08 at Walmart here. Texas Gulf Coast
[14:41] {nemo} o.k everybody tell Beau FU
[14:41] {Beau} You are welcome to move here.
[14:41] {Beau} FU =
[14:41] {nemo} nevermind
[14:41] {Threei}  lol
[14:42] {Beau} FU is Fill Up.
[14:42] {Threei}  I can't believe how they s^%# you in Europe
[14:42] {nemo} yeah, right
[14:42] {jackharry} the tax is going up another 3p per litre in August, cause it's obviously not quite high enough yet
[14:42] {nemo} no vaseline either
[14:42] {nemo} spy at trend
[14:43] {nemo} I have a story about Texas
[14:43] {nemo} Visiting a friend who was in Med school
[14:43] {nemo} was living with sister and brother-in-law who comes from one of those big oil families in the Dallas Fort Worth area
[14:44] {nemo} the Brother in law and my buddy want to take me out to the family ranch and they have this big smirk on their faces
[14:44] {nemo} I'm thinking, what? they have a huge ranch...everything is big in Texas
[14:45] {nemo} So...we get there, start driving on the back 40, and I start seein giraffes....and antelope....kudu...giant warthogs
[14:45] {nemo} I'm like o.k. guys, what up
[14:45] {nemo} They start laughing
[14:46] {nemo} turns out back in the 70's the DFW crowd were threatening to take their land through eminent domain to make a free trade zone
[14:46] {nemo} Family scion imported a bunch of animals from Africa and turned it into a game preserve
[14:47] {Threei}  I bet your first thought was "oh oh, maybe that last mushroom was a bit too much"
[14:47] {Beau} Moral of story - Nemo has a friend?
[14:47] {Threei}  hehe
[14:47] {nemo} Nah, peyote down there dude
[14:47] {nemo} nice Beau
[14:47] {nemo} you're my kinda' guy
[14:47] {nemo} iwm might be setting up long here
[14:47] {Beau} Oh God!
[14:48] {nemo} oh, look...bunny's here
[14:49] {nemo} So...I get home last night  from....oh yeah...drinking...check in on my father.
[14:49] {nemo} He complains to me the bunny attacked him again
[14:50] {nemo} regular frickin' Monty Python movie around here
[15:01] {Threei} Short Setup: PCYC  .10 break smallish shares
[15:01] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[15:02] {nemo} long setups iwm spy
[15:03] {nemo} .10 trigger spy
[15:04] {nemo} iwm weakening though
[15:04] {_dolores} PCYC triggered
[15:04] {Threei}  and 1:1
[15:05] {nemo} upro
[15:05] {nemo} sorry
[15:05] {nemo} in upro
[15:05] {nemo} .20
[15:05] {nemo} on that break of .10 spy
[15:07] {nemo} I'm feeling like wile e coyote when he runs off the cliff
[15:07] {nemo} 1/2 out .32
[15:08] {nemo} 1/4 more .45
[15:10] {nemo} I'm out at spy vwap
[15:11] {nemo} out .67
[15:11] {Beau} very gj nemo
[15:12] {Threei}  nice read
[15:13] {nemo} ty...I played upro because I noticed a couple of months ago that iwm and spy tend to get out of sync towards the end of the day
[15:13] {nemo} tell ya what though, upro is more a cipher-diaper stock.  not as liquid as tna
[15:14] {nemo} on the other hand spxu (the anti-spy) is liquid for downside plays
[15:15] {nemo} see look at iwm vs spy right now
[15:24] {nemo} now I feel like a turd
[15:24] {Threei}  lord give me strength...
[15:24] {nemo} spy ws1 and daily S3 about .75 we're likely going there
[15:24] {nemo} I knew better
[15:25] {nemo} no...not strength...smarts...;-)
[15:25] {Threei}  hehe
[15:26] {_dolores} thxs threei see you tomorrow
[15:26] {Threei}  welcome :)
[15:30] {nemo} mmmhhhh...gdx bull flag
[15:34] {dptl} jcp.70 short?
[15:35] {Threei}  not sure about SPY helping
[15:41] {nemo} spy potential short here, but I think it still wants .75
[15:41] {nemo} trigger would be .50
[15:44] {nemo} mmmhhhhh...guess I should just take the setups...huh?
[15:52] {Threei}  that's the idea, you know...
[15:58] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:58] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:58] {scottie} gn everyone
[15:58] {dptl} gn all
[15:59] {jackharry} gn everyone
[16:01] {Beau} night all
[16:02] {thomcbell} good night
[16:03] {dino} gn

Nemo's week of 6/24

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

 IWM SPY-the week that was:

The week that is:

A video review of what I saw and what I see:

http://youtu.be/iYOb-yMWOpA

Market Week Wrap-Up

- On Sunday the pro-bailout New Democracy party beat anti-bailout forces in the Greek parliamentary elections, taking the imminent risk of another major confrontation between Athens and its European partners off the table. A coalition government was formed with only a little static along the way, and newly installed PM Samaras began a campaign to obtain a two-year extension of Greece's fiscal consolidation requirements under the second bailout agreement. There were mixed signals on whether the extension would be forthcoming and Northern European euro zone members made unfavorable comments about an extension. Spain all but formally asked for a bank bailout from its European partners this week, as a stress test conducted by independent auditors suggested Spanish banks would need up to €62B in additional capital under an adverse scenario. The Eurogroup agreed to make up to €100B in funding available, initially from the EFSF with the credit line later rolled over to the as-yet approved ESM. Italian PM Monti hosted German Chancellor Merkel, French President Hollande and Spanish PM Rajoy to discuss the crisis and lay the groundwork for next week's EU Leaders Summit. The four leaders agreed to propose a growth package equal to 1% of EU GDP, about €130B, as Europe's leaders slowly shift toward admitting growth policies are badly needed to take the sting out of fiscal consolidation. On Wednesday, the FOMC extended Operation Twist through the end of 2012, but markets were unimpressed. In addition, the Fed reduced its estimate for 2012 GDP by half a percent to +1.9-2.4%. On Thursday, the Fed news combined with a raft of bad data and fears of Moody's long-threatened bank downgrades drove the S&P500's second steepest loss of 2012. Goldman analysts piled on, putting out a trading call for the S&P500 index to retest its recent lows at 1285. German June PMI missed estimates and showed continued contraction, while the June Philly Fed manufacturing survey and US May existing home sales data were very weak. Commodities were hammered with the declines: crude dropped below $78/barrel on Friday, its lowest level since last October, gold fell more than $50 to $1,570, and the GSCI commodities index dropped into bear market territory, off 22% from its peak at the beginning of March. The DJIA fell 0.9% on the week, while the S&P500 dropped 0.6%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.7%.

- Moody's cut the credit ratings of 15 global banks, including the five largest US banks, highlighting the challenges faced by an industry facing falling GDP, the euro zone disaster, tougher regulations and nervous investors. Credit Suisse was hardest hit, with a three-notch downgrade. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, UBS, Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas, and the Royal Bank of Canada all got a double-notch downgrade. Bank of America, HSBC, Societe Generale, and the Royal Bank of Scotland received single-notch downgrades. The downgrades mean banks will have to post more collateral and will face even more pressure to deleverage, but financial stocks experienced a modest relief rally on Friday as there were no big negative surprises among the downgrades.

- There are several more pieces that need to fall into place before Spain can start using euro zone funds to recapitalize its banks. Independent auditors hired by Madrid reported that Spain's banks need €16-20B capital under a baseline stress scenario and €51-62B under an adverse scenario. The Spanish finance ministry said it would formally request aid early next week and asserted that the nation's three largest banks were fine and would not need any recapitalization funds. An MOU providing a specific funding request will be prepared by July 9th, and a second audit (the so-called "bottom up" audit), to be complete in September, will help determine how much is disbursed to each bank. Yields on the Spanish benchmark 10-year debt were above 7% coming into the week and dropped to around 6.3% by Friday. Investors demanded punishing rates in two key debt sales (although demand was strong): on Tuesday, the Spanish Treasury was forced to pay 5.07% to sell 12-month bills and 5.11% to sell 18-month paper, then on Thursday, it sold five-year bonds at an average rate of 6.07% and three-year bonds at 5.46%.

- The ESM is apparently the ultimate lynchpin of the Spanish bank bailout, but more questions were raised about the future of the fund this week. On Thursday one of the German opposition parties said it would ask the country's highest court to suspend ratification and look into whether participation in the ESM is constitutional. Analysts believe the court is likely to reject an injunction to stop the launch of the ESM, but it could still take weeks even to reach that decision, potentially delaying the initiation of the fund long enough to cause turbulence later this summer. The German lower house of parliament is still scheduled to vote on ESM ratification on June 29th, although the German president is expected to delay the final ratification vote to let the constitutional court deliberate. Debate among European officials on whether to allow the ESM to directly inject funds into banks or buy bonds on the open market raged on this week, with Germany continuing to resist allowing these measures.

- In other equity news, FedEx met expectations in its Q4 report, however its guidance for Q1 and FY13 were decidedly underwhelming. Oracle released its Q4 results three days ahead of schedule on Monday (pre-empting press reports on the departure of a key executive), disclosing stronger-than-expected Q4 profits and slightly soft guidance. Procter & Gamble moderately tamped down earnings and revenue expectations for Q4 due to slower than expected growth and fluctuations in the forex market. Steel names AK Steel and Steel Dynamics offered weaker guidance for Q2, blaming increased imports and higher domestic capacity (echoing Nucor's warning last week). Microsoft unveiled its Windows Phone 8 system, which it hopes to position as major competitor to Apple's iOS and Google's Android, and also said it would launch its own tablet computer.

- In FX trading, the euro strengthened and EUR/USD pushed out to 1.2750, its highest level in a month, following the Greek election on Sunday. However fears about Spain emerged immediately and knocked the euro down again on Monday, as Bank of Spain reported that the bad loan ratio at the nation's banks had risen to 18-month highs, while PM Rajoy was said to be pushing back against IMF reform suggestions. A sharp decline in the German June ZEW confidence survey kept the euro weak into Tuesday, when the uneventful Spanish auctions and the successful formation of a Greek government reversed the euro and took it higher again. Into the end of the week heated rhetoric about whether or not to amend the terms of Greece's bailout at the euro zone finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg plus FOMC hangover drove risk-off trading. EUR/USD closed out the week around 1.2560. Sterling faced headwinds throughout the week as UK inflation data came in below expectations, keeping anticipation of more BoE monetary accommodation on the table. In addition, minutes from the most recent BoE policy meeting indicated a split vote on the new QE authorization, further weakening the pound.

- Economic data out of the Far East largely echoed disappointments in the US and Europe, as China PMI easily justified the more aggressive PBoC policy easing bias while trade figures out of Japan offered a stark reflection of European turmoil. China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI for the first half of June saw its 8th consecutive contractionary reading (i.e. below 50) while also falling to a 7-month low at 48.1. New export orders component was even more disappointing at 45.9, the lowest level since March 2009. China markets were closed and have yet to react to Thursday's data, suggesting Shanghai Composite could add to its 2% slide for the week when it reopens on Monday. Japan's adjusted merchandise trade balance registered its biggest deficit in years at ¥657B, as imports of energy ate into modest recovery in shipments of autos to the US. Notably, Japan's exports to Europe fell into deficit for the first time in over 30 years of records, with crises in Spain and Greece clearly weighing on overseas economies. USD/JPY rose nearly 2 big figures above the ¥80 handle, as dealers focused on poor trade figures, appointment of two ultra-dovish economists to the BOJ, increasing political tensions amid PM Kan's push toward sales tax increase, and also rising short-term interest rates in US treasury markets. Q1 GDP from New Zealand provided some silver lining, registering a 5-year high on q/q basis at 1.1%. Analysts were quick to attribute the surge to a fleeting bumper season in the agricultural sectors, pointing to a decline in exports and flat performance in the construction and household consumption space. NZD and AUD currencies ended the week modestly lower after two consecutive weeks of strong gains.

TradeTheNews

June 22 2012

Decent end to the week, ending it with 4 winning days out of 5. Slow climb mode kept us in coma for a while but good plays still appeared now and then.

Session Time: Fri Jun 22 00:00:00 2012

[09:01] {Threei}  yawn

[09:01] {nemo} cover your mouth

[09:02] {nemo} Google: Helping drinking buddies determine who is right and wrong since 1997.

[09:06] {scottie} gm

[09:06] {Threei}  scottie :)

[09:11] {nemo} well, so much for the bank downgrades

[09:12] {Threei}  that was yesterday

[09:12] {Threei}  $3 drop SPY is not enough for ya?

[09:13] {Threei}  I mean bloodthirsty is good but there should be a limit, no? :)

[09:14] {nemo} ANARCHY!!!

[09:14] {nemo} we're at weekly pivot on spy

[09:17] {nemo} my, that was precise

[09:20] {Threei}  Due to the current financial crisis facing the world at the moment, the light at the end of the tunnel will be switched off to save on electricity costs, until further notice.

[09:20] {dptl} gm

[09:20] {Threei}  dp :)

[09:20] {Beau} good morning you all

[09:20] {Threei}  beau :)

[09:20] {Threei}  Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Russia sees no need to explain its Syrian arms deliveries to the US

[09:20] {Threei}  how's that reset going

[09:26] {ese} gm

[09:26] {Threei}  ese :)

[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break

[09:30] {Threei}  If holds  .35 

[09:31] {Threei}  target .15

[09:32] {Threei}  half out .22

[09:32] {Threei}  stop to .31

[09:32] {Threei}  out

[09:32] {scottie} +.10 ty

[09:32] {Threei}  :)

[09:32] {Threei}  how often do you get FCX at the open with 6 cents stop

[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  MS  .15 break

[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[09:35] {Threei}  target .25 - .30

[09:36] {nemo} ok spy retesting wpp here, looking for short

[09:36] {nemo} ms bid

[09:37] {Threei}  market weakens

[09:38] {Threei}  no go

[09:38] {thomcbell} looking for a long entry in bbby

[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .05 break

[09:38] {thomcbell} way too wide an initial range 

[09:39] {Threei}  .95 stop

[09:39] {nemo} resistance .10

[09:40] {Threei}  not liking iut

[09:40] {Threei}  quite sudden selling

[09:40] {Threei}  disproportional too

[09:42] {nemo} bounce time

[09:42] {nemo} if it doesn't here we test the Weekly pivot on IWM

[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .50 break

[09:45] {Threei}  If holds  .40,  target 1:3

[09:45] {nemo} iwm respecting downtrend resistance

[09:46] {ese} L R .55

[09:48] {Threei}  1:1

[09:48] {Threei}  first partial, stop to .48

[09:48] {nemo} yeah, getting to major support in spy and iwm

[09:49] {nemo} l tna .76

[09:49] {nemo} yeah baby

[09:49] {nemo} half .90

[09:49] {Threei}  scalpers win

[09:49] {nemo} stop .89

[09:50] {nemo} 1/4 more .15

[09:50] {Threei}  (ES) Spain is said to be considering imposing losses on junior bank bondholders - financial press

[09:50] {Threei}  we've seen this movie already

[09:50] {scottie} +.10 on FAZ ty

[09:50] {nemo} yeah, like it'll happen

[09:50] {nemo} stop to .99

[09:51] {Threei}  **Note that earlier this morning, Spain Econ Ministry reiterated that the govt is not planning to liquidate banks, not planning haircuts for bondholders.

[09:51] {Threei}  - Follow up: 09:50ET: Spain economy minister denies that there is any such plan to impose losses on junior bank bondholders.

[09:52] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Finance Minister Rapanos is said to have been hospitalized after a "fainting spell" - Greece press ***Note that earlier today, Greece PM Samaras was hospitalized due to a retinal detachment.

[09:52] {nemo} ow...last quarter out

[09:52] {nemo} damn...it's holding my earlier stop,wtf

[09:56] {ese} R stopped .10 -.45 sm

[09:57] {scottie} FB break of 33 ? looks good on daily

[09:58] {nemo} yeah, if you can trust a month and a half daily

[09:58] {Threei}  not delighted really...

[09:59] {scottie} ok

[09:59] {Threei}  drop to .60 would desrve an entry

[09:59] {nemo} yep, again, shoulda stuck with my original stop

[10:05] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .75 break hl

[10:06] {nemo} iwm approaching pivot at .22

[10:06] {Threei}  .64 stop

[10:07] {Threei}  1 cent shy of 1:1... come on

[10:07] {nemo} market

[10:07] {ese} R dino

[10:08] {Threei}  tighten to .69

[10:09] {Threei}  out

[10:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break

[10:14] {Threei}  If holds  .40 

[10:15] {nemo} tza

[10:18] {ese} L celg .10

[10:19] {Threei}  looks 1:2-capable to me

[10:19] {Threei}  stop to .44

[10:19] {Threei}  half out

[10:20] {nemo} FB

[10:20] {nemo} .55 long might be good

[10:20] {nemo} support in .40 area

[10:20] {ese} out celg .38 + .28

[10:20] {Threei}  wtg

[10:21] {nemo} .57 offer

[10:21] {ese} tks

[10:22] {nemo} 1/2 .65

[10:23] {ese} I want back in R 

[10:23] {Threei}  {R} I have good emories too, ese...

[10:24] {nemo} stop to break even

[10:25] {nemo} mhhhh, FB maintaining downtrend

[10:26] {ese} it tanked this morning on the imfamous downgrade of strong buy to outperform price target anywhere from 45/ 70....bit of an overreaction i'd say today

[10:26] {ese} just a question of when it's heading up

[10:29] {nemo} fb holding well in this drop

[10:29] {Threei}  stop to .49

[10:29] {nemo} 1/4 more .74...just in case ;-)

[10:30] {nemo} iwm spy longs shaping up

[10:33] {thomcbell} kind of a long setup here on bbby 61.21 break if holding 61.05

[10:33] {thomcbell} market makes me tentative 

[10:34] {Threei}  chart's right

[10:35] {ese} nemo...question....whats the draw with iwm...what are you liking about it?

[10:37] {nemo} retracement level, and indicator divergence, as you can see .20 trigger to .40, I think it's going to be buy support sell resistance kinda' day

[10:37] {Threei}  also, they drunk together once

[10:38] {nemo} ese, you could have also played spy, because it had the same setup

[10:42] {Threei}  BBBY works nicely

[10:42] {Threei}  it's pretty much market-independent

[10:42] {Threei}  as stocks with fresh news often are

[10:42] {dino} out bbby .50, +.29. ty tbell for idea

[10:43] {Threei}  nice play

[10:43] {dino} 07 red fwiw

[10:43] {Threei}  OK, time for the next trail TZA, .53

[10:44] {Threei}  trying not to overtighten it this time

[10:49] {thomcbell} thanks 

[10:50] {Threei}  out

[10:50] {thomcbell} i had to step off as is often the case - made sales at 1:2 for 3/4 of it 

[10:50] {thomcbell} lvs horrible action

[10:52] {ese} tks nemo.....am just watching the way it trades....spreads beta...some stuff like that......just wondering what you saw in it

[10:54] {nemo} I track iwm and spy side by side

[10:56] {nemo} I have two charts, my side by side and a 15 minute panel view with all the levels for IWM SPY FAS, and I'll be plotting TLT

[10:56] {ese} ahhh  was just gonna ask that......i watch spy mostly......do they diverge much.....do you find one of them better than the other in certain situations

[10:57] {nemo} It's the relationship between the two...there is an interplay because IWM is the risky wild child and SPY the parent, then I look at the financials and of course bonds, because of there natural interellationships

[10:58] {ese} hmmmmmm....i don't really watch bonds but maybe i should......

[10:58] {nemo} Now, if you look at where iwm just bottomed, it was simple support from the breakout at 10:03, but spy was the loss, and immediate recapture of teh 127.2 retrace of the previous morning low

[10:59] {nemo} as well, all indicators I follow were in divergence at that point

[10:59] {Threei}  can you imagine what he would be like if he didn't vage the permanent war on brain cells, heavily armed with hard liquor?

[10:59] {Threei}  wage

[10:59] {dino} ese i just watch tlt for bonds

[11:00] {nemo} actually, it was my extended organic experiments in my early years

[11:00] {Threei}  lol

[11:00] {nemo} and a lifetime of getting hit in the head

[11:00] {ese} ya .......i've got tlt in a watch list but i haven't paid much attention to it.....

[11:00] {nemo} kinda' why I got out of that business

[11:00] {dino} after awhile it starts to hurt

[11:01] {Threei}  (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: 10 countries now support the financial transactions tax; conditions are in place for enhanced cooperation- Reminder: earlier the Spain Fin Min commented that nine euro zone nations support the financial transaction tax (Tobin Tax).

[11:01] {nemo} you don't heal as fast anymore

[11:01] {Threei}  what's with these tax-happy imbeciles

[11:01] {dino} they are slowly destroying financial markets in europe

[11:01] {nemo} You know a government that saw a tax it didn't like

[11:02] {Threei}  actually, let them

[11:02] {nemo} They don't realize they are going to increase the spreads dramatically

[11:02] {dino} they are going to lose the markets. it will go west to british, usa, canada

[11:03] {Threei}  when their money shurg and move to NA, it will be fair

[11:03] {Threei}  you wanted it, you got it

[11:03] {nemo} well, demand for the FTT will come here when Europe pushes it

[11:04] {Threei}  I doubt it

[11:04] {Threei}  you'd have to have democrats holding absolute majority in all goverfning bodies for this to have even slightest chance to pass

[11:04] {Threei}  and I don't see this happening

[11:05] {Threei}  not even speaking of Canada which won't go for it

[11:05] {Threei}  not under current government anyway

[11:05] {nemo} it's very close, I think this election is going to be a big surprise

[11:05] {Threei}  btw, isn't it ironic that FTT also stands for Failure to thrive (medical term)

[11:08] {nemo} http://fwd4.me/13se

[11:11] {nemo} breakout shaping up

[11:12] {scottie} wag 30 stop .90 ?

[11:12] {Threei}  watching TZA for double bottom

[11:12] {Threei}  WAG yes, nie chart

[11:12] {Threei}  nice

[11:13] {Threei}  TZA, if drops under .40, holds .35, then crosses back

[11:13] {nemo} .01 resistance

[11:15] {nemo} .10 resistance sorry

[11:17] {Threei}  Daily Tracking: #Romney: 48%, #Obama: 43%

[11:17] {dino} stc celg 60 calls .36, +.51

[11:17] {Threei}  quite sustained lead... although I bet Romney wished election would ocuur the next morning after infamous Obama's "private sector is doing fine"

[11:18] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break

[11:18] {Threei}  If holds  .35 

[11:20] {Raven} Rasmussen poll this AM: R=48% O=43%

[11:20] {nemo} Obama will win

[11:20] {Raven} lol ... no doubt

[11:22] {dino} starting to think romney pulls it off

[11:25] {Raven} with over 50% of the population on the dole and 75% of the kids cannot read or do math ... you have to wonder if that is possible

[11:26] {dino} of the 50% figure only 25% of that votes. as fpr kids, college students are not happy w/obama, no jobs

[11:27] {Threei}  half out

[11:28] {Raven} one can hope

[11:29] {dino} look at it this way, too lazy to work, too lazy to vote

[11:29] {Raven} I want to believe that

[11:29] {Threei}  I think this election is Obama's to lose...

[11:30] {Raven} he's been doing just swell at that lately

[11:30] {Threei}  all Romney needs and can do is to look presidential, not to offer any 10K bets and pick good VP

[11:32] {Threei}  stop .39

[11:32] {Raven} he needs to put forth some understandable plans to fix some obvious problems as well

[11:32] {Raven} otherwise just another empty suit

[11:37] {Beau} his wife is potential negative

[11:43] {ese} L RIO .43.........am falling asleep......almost didn't post

[11:50] {scottie} wag long .02

[11:56] {nemo} bonds reached support

[11:56] {thomcbell} these very long term patterns on the miners are enormous head and shoulders patterns which if broken has fcx bankrupt and bhp down 65 - 70% from neckline breaks

[11:56] {scottie} stopped wag -.07

[12:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .35 break

[12:00] {Threei}  If holds  .30 

[12:03] {thomcbell} qcom long setup 55.40 break if holding 55.30 

[12:04] {thomcbell} target 1:2

[12:04] {thomcbell} using a half lot 

[12:06] {scottie} +.10 ty

[12:06] {Threei}  :)

[12:07] {dino} out gdx .50, +.14 ty vad

[12:08] {Threei}  yw

[12:08] {thomcbell} qcom now invalid

[12:10] {ese} am signing off....snooper vising an exam this morning have great weekend cya monday

[12:12] {Threei}  take care ese

[12:17] {dino} calling it a day too, thx all

[12:17] {scottie} bye dino

[12:17] {Threei}  take care dino

[12:25] {nemo} might get iwm bounce here

[12:27] {nemo} there ya go

[12:29] {Threei}  good read

[12:29] {nemo} just a little one though, frankly looks, at the moment like we'll be heading down, only question is if the Weekly Pivot in SPY is where they want to end up, that's at .12

[12:30] {nemo} IWM daily pivot is .22

[12:32] {thomcbell} meanwhile bbby could have a nice up move if it can hold 61.50 for more than 30 seconds

[12:32] {thomcbell} basing on 5 minute 

[12:40] {nemo} bounce territory again, but for some reason I am more circumspect

[12:41] {nemo} o.k. so I was right...

[12:43] {thomcbell} im long bbby very small - will add if it can hold 61.50 for a few minutes 

[12:47] {Threei}  EU court rules that workers who get sick during vacation time can get more vacation time

[12:47] {Threei}  I've got one prediction to make... vacation times are going to double from now on

[12:50] {nemo} o.k. on 15 min charts spy and IWM we may have  C&H's forming

[12:58] {thomcbell} no go bbby

[13:24] {nemo} yeah, sick time isn't vacation time

[13:36] {nemo} cup and handles breaking

[13:36] {Threei}  yes... and looks like climb to the eod

[13:36] {Threei}  or stall

[13:37] {Threei}  but drop is not very likely

[13:37] {Threei}  (pains me to say)

[13:38] {nemo} one would think spy needs to test today's high with a possible target to 133.52, today

[13:38] {nemo} pivot

[13:39] {Beau} gotta run. good weekend everybody

[13:39] {Threei}  take care beau

[13:51] {Threei}  (GR) Greece official notes that the country wants to extend the timeline for the bailout to at least 2016- This is in line with reports earlier in the week that said the new PM Samaras was preparing to ask for a two year extension to 2016 for meeting fiscal consolidation targets set by the bailout agreement.

[13:51] {Threei}  which presents a problem: if answer is no, country revolts; if answer is yes, they'll need a third bailout

[14:02] {nemo} stupid me...should have just held tna, got it .03 off the bottom

[14:15] {nemo} now IWM is starting to look like a top

[14:43] {Threei}  hmmm

[14:43] {Threei}  so far, exactly the type of market that keeps me in come, but we may get some selling soon

[14:45] {Threei}  come = coma

[14:46] {Threei}  watching FAZ

[14:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .15 break

[14:55] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[14:57] {Threei}  trying to play double top in SPY in case it can't break .50

[14:57] {Threei}  if it does, FAZ should invalidate

[15:01] {Threei}  still valid IMO

[15:02] {Threei}  stop .08

[15:04] {Threei}  target .30 or so in two partials

[15:04] {Threei}  first is out .23

[15:04] {Threei}  stop to .13

[15:08] {nemo} spy topped out right at the pivot

[15:10] {Threei}  isn't it amazing when my admittedly oversimplkistic view on things coincides to the T with these indicators?

[15:13] {nemo} next target are the monthly pivot points.  We regain those, negates the bears

[15:13] {scottie} average +.05 ty Vad

[15:14] {Threei}  still scalping time eh

[15:14] {scottie} obviously too soon again.lol

[15:14] {Threei}  but I really wanted to give it a chance, in case it was real reversal

[15:14] {Threei}  a lot of air under this climb

[15:15] {Threei}  if it hits airpocket, drop can be good

[15:15] {Threei}  meanwhile, smokers just won't contribute to society:

[15:15] {Threei}  California legislation to implement $1/pack tax increase has failed to pass in a vote

[15:34] {nemo} mmmhhh...financials not keeping pace

[15:34] {nemo} think that might be the high for the day

[15:38] {Threei}  feels so

[15:38] {scottie} VXX db? looks good on 5 min.

[15:39] {Threei}  wouldn't be my first choice...

[15:39] {scottie} ok

[15:39] {nemo} hate that thing

[15:39] {scottie} ?

[15:39] {nemo} VXX

[15:40] {Threei}  yeah, it's a nasty trader

[15:40] {nemo} psycho woman

[15:40] {Threei}  also, look how it tests its day low while SPY is ways off its high

[15:40] {nemo} mmmhhh...looks like I might stand corrected on iwm

[15:41] {nemo} got that russell rebalancing today too

[15:42] {nemo} with us likely finishing at the top of the range, we'll likely open above the monthly pivots on Monday

[15:48] {nemo} spy went from .53 to .63 with IWM only moving .03 

[15:49] {nemo} spy needs to get to about .92 to close flat on the week

[15:56] {dptl} gn all have a good weekend

[15:57] {Threei}  thank you all

[15:57] {Threei}  have a great weekend, see you on Monday

[15:57] {scottie} have a good weekend everyone, thanks Vad

June 21 2012

Didn't handle this day exactly right even though got the direction correctly. A few trades worked very nicely but there were a few too many rinses.


Session Time: Thu Jun 21 00:00:00 2012
[09:10] {Beau} good morning all
[09:10] {Threei}  OK... let's admit it... time to wake up
[09:10] {Threei}  Beau :)
[09:11] {Threei}  so, practically no reaction to this:
[09:11] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 387K V 383KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.299M V 3.278ME- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 386K to 389K - Prior Continuing Claims higher from 3.278M to 3.299M - 4-week avg claims: 386.3K v 382.0K w/w
[09:11] {Threei}  did market lose sensitivity to job numbers?
[09:12] {thomcbell} bad news no reaction = bullish
[09:13] {Threei}  or,
[09:13] {_daniel} gm all
[09:13] {Threei}  other lineage of news is so influential that this one practically doesn't matter
[09:13] {Threei}  daniel :)
[09:14] {Threei}  on all the overnight hpp[la there was one important bit,
[09:14] {Threei}  about Germany opposition coming close to agreeing on another EU rescue
[09:14] {Threei}  and Spanish bonds retreated to about 6.50
[09:15] {Threei}  However important job numbers are, that's not the focus of main worry right now... it's all about EU
[09:22] {dino} gm
[09:22] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:23] {dino} hey, login worked
[09:24] {Threei}  cool :)
[09:25] {Threei}  Nigel Farage is my hero
[09:25] {Threei}  Nigel Farage: "EC president Jose Barroso is a Delusional Idiot, The Whole Thing's a Giant Ponzi Scheme!"
[09:25] {Threei}  http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/06/nigel-farage-barroso-is-delusional.html
[09:26] {dino} finally someone speaks the truth
[09:26] {Threei}  when got a min, listen to him
[09:28] {Threei}  waiting out first minutes... reluctantly biased long so far
[09:31] {dptl} gm
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break hl
[09:32] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[09:35] {Threei}  still valid
[09:35] {Threei}  change to .75 break
[09:36] {Threei}  to .70
[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:37] {Threei}  no go
[09:40] {Threei}  (EU) Moody's is said to be planning to issue bank downgrade announcements today - financial press- For Global banks **Note that earlier this morning, there was chatter circulating that Moody's could downgrade the UK banking sector as soon as today.
[09:41] {ese} ahhhhh good morning
[09:41] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:43] {Threei}  a lot of numbers coming at 10
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:44] {Threei}  very tight stop
[09:44] {Threei}  target .25
[09:46] {Threei}  half out .18
[09:46] {Threei}  stop to .09
[09:47] {ese} am eyeing CELG dino
[09:48] {ese} has taken a beating for nothing this morning
[09:48] {dino} lqdt blood again
[09:48] {ese} am watching that as well
[09:48] {dino} bbby
[09:49] {dino} celg
[09:49] {ese} yup
[09:49] {Threei}  Celgene Corp To withdraw Revlimid submission from the CHMP, plan to re-submit later with "more mature" data; reaffirms FY12 $4.70-4.80 v $4.80e, R$5.4-5.6B v $5.43Be- 2015 financial targets:
[09:49] {ese} thats data that can read and write properly
[09:50] {dino} clc
[09:52] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:52] {Threei}  want to try for one more spike for the last piece
[09:52] {Threei}  closer to .30
[09:52] {ese} BBBY thats almost hilarious..target lowered to 80 from 84 so the markt makers tank it to 63 just for the added extra bonus of 20 dollars profit instead of 10
[09:52] {Threei}  there
[09:53] {Threei}  out .30
[09:53] {Threei}  not bad for 6 cents risk
[09:54] {dino} took some july 65 calls on it ese
[09:55] {Threei}  backing off until after numbers, there are like 5 or 6 of them at 10
[09:56] {ese} that should pay off really well
[09:56] {nemo} I'm here
[09:56] {Threei}  finally
[09:56] {dino} whew
[09:56] {Threei}  we cried
[09:56] {ese} it's brazenly greedy.......
[09:57] {Threei}  ese refused to eat
[09:57] {ese} phewwwwww!
[09:57] {nemo} nice to be missed
[09:59] {ese} lol
[10:00] {Threei}  yikes
[10:00] {nemo} wtf
[10:00] {Threei}  home sales bad
[10:00] {Threei}  Phil fed is horrible
[10:00] {Threei}  Eurozone confidence bad
[10:00] {nemo} YAHOOOOOOOOO anarchy here we come!!!
[10:00] {Threei}  house price index for Apr is decent
[10:01] {nemo} iwm at support from yesterday
[10:01] {nemo} MPP
[10:02] {Threei}  we traded it nemo, while you were out... you'd be proud of us
[10:02] {nemo} cool
[10:03] {Threei}  ese, look dcc pls
[10:03] {nemo} this is 50 day SMA for spy
[10:03] {Threei}  (GR) Finland Fin Min: Reiterates that giving Greece more time to reach austerity targets is not a good idea
[10:04] {Threei}  Greece: make sure our border posts have this guy's photo...
[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .30 break
[10:07] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:10] {Threei}  nope
[10:11] {nemo} it's at resistance with .45 being vwap
[10:12] {Threei}  things are strangely slow
[10:12] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[10:12] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[10:13] {ese} L celg sm .53
[10:14] {Threei}  target .25, two partials
[10:14] {_dolores} GM
[10:14] {Threei}  morning dolores
[10:14] {ese} D  welcome
[10:14] {_dolores} thxs
[10:15] {_dolores} now FCX if breaks .40?
[10:15] {Threei}  it's a short call
[10:15] {Threei}  just triggered
[10:16] {Threei}  stop .46
[10:16] {_dolores} ok
[10:16] {ese} out celg .74 +.21
[10:16] {Threei}  wtg
[10:17] {ese} tks
[10:17] {ese} chip off the ole dino block
[10:18] {nemo} fcx at trend, vwap is .54
[10:19] {ese} anyone possibly looking at SLW L .50
[10:20] {ese} L slw .48
[10:21] {Threei}  held by fingertips
[10:22] {ese} yup
[10:22] {ese} spyders gonna be the death of me
[10:23] {Threei}  cover the first half here
[10:24] {Threei}  stop to .42
[10:26] {ese} daaaa
[10:26] {ese} ouuuuuuu but hangin in there.........i like that move
[10:28] {Threei}  this sloooow slide makes me think it's a strong trend
[10:28] {Threei}  market can move like this for quite a while
[10:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .80 break
[10:29] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:30] {Threei}  volume is so-so
[10:31] {Threei}  - NYSE volume 140M shares, about 18% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 2.1:1. - NASDAQ volume 350M shares, about 10% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 2.2:1.
[10:31] {ese} this would be your basic triple bottom on dee one minute chart for slw
[10:31] {ese} it's the summer time
[10:32] {ese} people going on holidays.....that gives nemo free rain to wreak havoc on the markets
[10:33] {nemo} wanna pee your pants laughing?
[10:33] {nemo} http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/06/Europe-crisis-in-one-picture.jpg
[10:33] {dino} celg sm l .20
[10:35] {dino} out celg .55, +.35
[10:35] {ese} lol.......thats is funny....
[10:35] {Threei}  beauty dino
[10:36] {dino} ty
[10:36] {ese} nice dino
[10:40] {nemo} ntap mightt be a short here
[10:40] {nemo} DBI
[10:42] {nemo} nope
[10:42] {nemo} lqdt cipher dino
[10:43] {nemo} I think it's working it
[10:43] {Threei}  not finding much
[10:43] {nemo} s way down to theat 47.50 area gap
[10:45] {Threei}  huh... nemo, court just cleared your way to TV screen
[10:45] {Threei}  US Supreme Court strikes down policy regulating curse words on broadcast television
[10:46] {nemo}  It's about $%*@&n! time!!!
[10:48] {_daniel} lots of triangles setting up on this slowdown
[10:48] {ese} lol
[10:49] {ese} ya....what the ^%$%^% esle should happen eh
[10:49] {Threei}  when things are this slow, traditional setups tend to fail more frequently
[10:50] {nemo} "triangles"???
[10:50] {nemo} crissakes, dino sees dead people and daniel sees triangles, then again I see bunnies
[10:50] {_daniel} triangles in consolidation. CELG is good example
[10:50] {ese} the words "on the cusp"   come to mind as I await the inevitable profit of slw
[10:51] {nemo} oh, you mean like a pennant formation?
[10:51] {nemo} whichever way it breaks
[10:51] {_daniel} exactly
[10:52] {nemo} Vad...teach daniel how to spell, would ya'?
[10:52] {_daniel} should have use the word pennant instead of triangle :)
[10:52] {dino} as in world series?
[10:52] {_daniel} AMZN just broke his formation
[10:53] {nemo} no, works for me, just trying to understand what you're saying..btw..we spell exactly=eqzaktly
[10:53] {_daniel} :)
[10:54] {dino} cern sm l .00
[10:55] {nemo} vwap at .26
[10:55] {dino} yes
[10:56] {nemo} mcp at major resistance, might get some back filling here
[10:56] {_daniel} vwap?
[10:56] {nemo} Volume Weighted Average Price
[10:56] {nemo} many of the algo's use it
[10:56] {dino} lqdt sm l .96
[10:57] {nemo} was just thinking that dino
[10:57] {ese} L celg .49999999
[10:57] {dino} great minds...
[10:57] {nemo} spy and iwm coming off
[10:58] {nemo} Ha!  If your mind operates like mine, seek professional help immediately!!!
[10:58] {ese} lol
[10:58] {ese} the two of ya........bunch of cards
[10:58] {dino} well, i do see dead people
[10:59] {ese} spyders ont helping my celg cause.........at &^%&^% all
[10:59] {ese} not
[10:59] {dino} i like it around .20
[11:00] {nemo} mcp could be a short below .10
[11:01] {ese} am sm just 400 so can afford to take some heat here.....shouldn't be a problem.......BUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!  ya never know
[11:01] {nemo} partialed .99
[11:02] {nemo} now it stops trading
[11:02] {nemo} wtf
[11:03] {ese} slw on the other hand is seriously pi^%%#% me off
[11:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .10 break
[11:03] {Threei}  If holds  50
[11:03] {nemo} 1/4 more .75
[11:03] {nemo} stop to .90
[11:03] {dino} lqdt stop -.31
[11:03] {Threei}  change to 50 break
[11:03] {nemo} this is fib support for spy and iwm
[11:03] {Threei}  .94 stop
[11:04] {ese} what brought that little tank in the mrkt on.........
[11:04] {Threei}  no go
[11:05] {dino} reality
[11:06] {nemo} stop to .80
[11:06] {Threei}  (DE) Germany reportedly seeking implementation of financial transaction taxes on certain nations if attempts to implement Europe wide fails
[11:06] {Threei}  lol
[11:07] {dino} celg sm l .20
[11:07] {nemo} too funny...if HFT is a large a portion of trading here as they think, that FTT would wipe out the industry and the market volume
[11:07] {Threei}  .85 break new setup
[11:08] {Threei}  .74 stop
[11:08] {Threei}  nope
[11:08] {Threei}  backing off
[11:08] {ese} 3 smartest kids in my pre calculus class were German....95/96 and 98%
[11:08] {nemo} imo, tna will be a play off of spy somewhere between here and .37
[11:08] {Threei}  new lows are coming
[11:09] {Threei}  SPY loses support
[11:10] {Threei}  my first read was right:
[11:10] {Threei}  10:28] {Threei} this sloooow slide makes me think it's a strong trend
[11:10] {Threei}  [10:28] {Threei} market can move like this for quite a while
[11:10] {Threei}  din't know why I changed from it
[11:10] {Threei}  misread the pause for a turn
[11:12] {nemo} here's .37 let's see
[11:15] {dino} cern just fell off cliff
[11:15] {nemo} I took .58 last quarter mcp
[11:16] {dino} re-try cern sm l .00 ave, stop lod
[11:19] {nemo} my exit from mcp was fortuitous
[11:23] {dino} out cern .32, +.32
[11:23] {_daniel} nice pullback hunting dino
[11:25] {dino} \ty
[11:26] {thomcbell} this spy wedge on daily looking ominous now - could be 1290 in a blink
[11:46] {_daniel} ok gents, i will call it a day now
[11:48] {Threei}  take care daniel
[11:56] {ese} out celg .86 +.36
[11:56] {ese} dino you still in....
[11:57] {ese} if you are...awesome from .20
[11:58] {dino} out .94 celg +.74
[11:58] {dino} lucky, was on the phone
[11:59] {ese} nice!
[12:05] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .90 break hl
[12:05] {Threei}  If holds  86
[12:09] {Threei}  target 1:2
[12:10] {Threei}  sigh
[12:16] {nemo} lok at cat daily...bear flag
[12:21] {Threei}  now it works
[12:22] {nemo} one has to wonder, you're at lunch time on a down day, so things are going to get slower...does that make the likelihood of breaks lower, and buying support selling resistance a better idea
[12:23] {Threei}  often, yes
[12:23] {nemo} btw...this is the SOGOTP level for cat
[12:26] {Threei}  grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
[12:27] {Threei}  don't know how I managed to screw up this day, it's almost perfect trading environment
[12:35] {Threei}  (ES) Independent auditors release results on Spanish banking sector; Spain banks need �16-20B capital needed in baseline scenario; �51-62B in adverse scenario- Spain notes the �100B loan from the EU would provide a large cushion; banks capital needs are manageable. - Three largest banks will not need any new capital. - Spanish Econ Ministry: To formally request aid in the next few days
[12:36] {Threei}  so, how long will it take these idiots to destroy Spain?
[12:36] {dino} 6 weeks
[12:37] {Threei}  can't believe it... one beautiful country after another is getting bulldozed
[12:38] {Threei}  by this unholy union of communist politicians and socialist bankers
[12:45] {_jackharry} Unfortunately Europe's political elite don't care. The Euro  was a combination of a huge vanity project and a way of engineering a politically united europe by the back door by Europe's political elite. Unfortunately they have created a burning building with no exits and it is the people who were given no say in this project that are being burnt
[12:45] {Threei}  so very true
[12:45] {Threei}  OK, I havbe to try this again:
[12:46] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .80 break
[12:46] {Threei}  change to .90
[12:47] {Threei}  stop .05
[12:47] {Threei}  nope... not my day
[13:01] {dino} sssssssslllllllllllllaaaaaaaaaaaapppppppppppppp!!!!!!!!
[13:02] {Threei}  (IT) Italy Treasury Official: Italy is missing its 2012 deficit target by �4B, must make up the difference with more spending cuts
[13:02] {Threei}  ***Note that on June 20th, Le Figaro reported that France was falling �10B short of its 2012 budget deficit target
[13:22] {Threei}  (US) Fitch: US insurer margins to come under pressure from extension of Operation Twist
[13:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .40 break
[13:24] {Threei}  stop .34
[13:27] {Threei}  first part out .49
[13:28] {Threei}  stop to .38
[13:36] {ese} gonna catch you all tomorrow on the flip side have a great rest of the day
[13:37] {Threei}  take care ese
[13:37] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[13:37] {Threei}  .57
[13:37] {Threei}  finally got a good one
[13:43] {dino} gj
[13:43] {Threei}  ty
[13:44] {_jackharry} out half at .53 and half at .62, thank you
[13:44] {Beau} missed it - bathroom - may shoot myself
[13:45] {Threei}  or toss the grenade in the bathroom
[13:50] {dino} think he just dropped it
[13:50] {Threei}  lol
[13:51] {Beau} loading .45
[13:55] {nemo} Beau, you hunt?
[13:58] {Beau} not after marriage
[13:59] {Beau} oh you mean animals. no
[13:59] {nemo} oh
[14:00] {nemo} Marriage: A ceremony in which rings are put on the finger of the lady and through the nose of the gentleman. ~Herbert Spence
[14:01] {dino} 3 rings of marriage, engagement ring, wedding ring, & suffering
[14:01] {Beau} LOL
[14:08] {Threei}  out last part .67
[14:08] {Threei}  whew
[14:09] {nemo} Marriage is exchanging the praises of many for the criticism of one
[14:09] {nemo} Call no man unhappy until he is married. ~ Socrates
[14:09] {nemo} By all means marry; if you get a good wife, you'll be happy. If you get a bad one, you'll become a philosopher. - Socrates
[14:16] {Threei}  look at SPY intraday,
[14:16] {Threei}  and read this again:
[14:16] {Threei}  [10:28] {Threei} this sloooow slide makes me think it's a strong trend
[14:16] {Threei}  [10:28] {Threei} market can move like this for quite a while
[14:17] {Threei}  now, can you tell me why didn't I listen to myself?
[14:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .85 break hl
[14:21] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[14:23] {thomcbell} bbby almost capitulation here
[14:23] {thomcbell} voluem pumping on 1 min chart
[14:26] {nemo} likely to get a bounce on spy between .70-.64
[14:27] {Threei}  FAZ frikin 50 cents move since our entry
[14:28] {thomcbell} long small bbby target is 61.40
[14:28] {Threei}  New Hampshire: #Obama 48%, #Romney 43%
[14:29] {Threei}  so much for "Live Free or Die"
[14:33] {Threei}  show us panic, SPY
[14:34] {nemo} Too many Massholes moved north
[14:34] {Threei}  trying to escape your wrath?
[14:34] {nemo} This state is a cesspool of Marxism and cronyism
[14:35] {thomcbell} made small sale bbby at 61.05
[14:36] {Threei}  nice bottom catch
[14:37] {Threei}  OK SPY, you paused long enough to give hope to a new crop of bottom-fishers and lure them in
[14:37] {Threei}  now drop sharply and kill them
[14:41] {Threei}  no go
[14:41] {Threei}  oh well... some days are not supposed to be repaired I guess
[14:52] {Threei}  EU) Eurogroup is said to have informally agreed to use EFSF for Spain banking system bailout - financial press- Loans to be transferred to the ESM later.
[14:53] {Threei}  yeah, that changes everything
[14:56] {thomcbell} another small sale bbby
[14:58] {thomcbell} stop to 60.98 on balance
[15:02] {nemo} iwm and spy could very well make a run here
[15:03] {Threei}  or drop sharply...
[15:05] {Threei}  this is what it often does when imitates attempt to bounce
[15:06] {nemo} IWM might set up right side of IH&S
[15:06] {nemo} having said that wpp on spy and s3 on iwm served as resistance
[15:12] {Threei}  what do you know... this TZA stop is going to turn into rinse
[15:17] {Threei}  watching FCX for short into bounce
[15:20] {dino} gold looking like deflation/defaults coming
[15:20] {Threei}  then don't even look at oil :)
[15:21] {dino} yeah, see that too
[15:22] {Threei}  come on FCX
[15:22] {Threei}  jump to just above .10
[15:22] {Threei}  to shake out premature shorts and stop them out
[15:22] {nemo} cl_f 78.57 and dropping
[15:22] {Threei}  privinding us with antry in the process
[15:23] {nemo} watch it, spy just hit s3 on the daily
[15:25] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[15:25] {_jackharry} 5 US banks will be downgraded by moodys- CNBC
[15:25] {Threei}  and about 15 UK ones by Moody
[15:26] {_jackharry} yep
[15:26] {Threei}  stop .16
[15:26] {Threei}  keeping it tight
[15:30] {nemo} higher probability of shorts packing it in
[15:31] {Threei}  with such tight stop willing to give it a chance,
[15:31] {Threei}  and plan is:
[15:32] {Threei}  cover half just above 33,
[15:32] {Threei}  then see if we get breeakdown and cascading selloff into eod pani
[15:36] {dino} cern sm l .76
[15:41] {dino} gs sm l .14, stop lod
[15:50] {dptl} gn all
[15:50] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:51] {dino} cya
[15:52] {Threei}  SPY new low
[15:52] {dino} gs stop
[15:52] {Threei}  and FCX follows
[15:54] {dino} wow ndx -2.6% today
[15:54] {Threei}  yeah
[15:59] {dino} out cern -.02
[16:00] {_jackharry} gn all
[16:00] {Threei}  thank you all
[16:00] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow