June 11 2012

We figured correctly that selling was going to be a major theme of the day. Market however dropped right frpm the open, with not as much as even attempting to rally first, so we got no good setups for shorting in the morning. Situation got more favorable later in the day so a few good ones came about on both long and short sides. Finished slightly up but not nearly as much as this kind of red days usually bring us.



Session Time: Mon Jun 11 00:00:00 2012
[09:02] {scottie} gm
[09:04] {Threei}  morning scottie
[09:19] {Threei}  hmmm... sleep-in is in vogue this week?
[09:20] {Threei}  I need to move my alarm 30 min later
[09:21] {scottie} You wake up pretty soon, I think
[09:24] {dino} gm
[09:24] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:25] {ese} gm
[09:25] {Beau} good morning all
[09:25] {dptl} gm
[09:25] {ese} B vad dino
[09:25] {ese} dp
[09:25] {Threei}  ese, beau, dp :)
[09:26] {Threei}  my working assumption: after morning dust settles, selling should become theme of the day
[09:27] {Threei}  market is off quite a bit from the overnight highs, and doubts about this next bailout are already front and ceter
[09:27] {Threei}  and I already got what I expect to be the best joke of the day:
[09:27] {Threei}  (ES) Spain to remain EFSF guarantor post-bailout - financial press
[09:27] {Threei}  Country that asked for 100B from EFSF and by many estimates needs 350-450B, remains that same EFSF guarantor?
[09:28] {Threei}  Seinfield's nervously smoking in the corner, that's some fierce competition on the stand-up comedy department.
[09:30] {Threei}  let's wait out first bout of volatility
[09:31] {Threei}  meanwhile, notice that FAZ performs better than TZA so far
[09:31] {Threei}  preobably will be our way to play the downside
[09:33] {ese} really dislike these gap up days
[09:33] {Threei}  wow
[09:33] {Threei}  that's some selloff right out of the gate
[09:34] {ese} yup
[09:34] {Threei}  impressive fear, for no news
[09:35] {Threei}  let's see if we get markert bounce to short into
[09:35] {Threei}  FAZ between .10 and .20 would be an entry
[09:36] {Threei}  for now looks like bounce in cards
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .95 break hl
[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:37] {Threei}  valid but with .95 sdtop
[09:37] {Threei}  .85
[09:38] {Threei}  change trigger to .90
[09:38] {Threei}  not ready yet
[09:40] {nemo} good morning
[09:40] {Threei}  nemo :)
[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .23
[09:41] {Threei}  stop under .15 scalpers, .10 day traders
[09:42] {Threei}  target .55
[09:43] {Threei}  wow
[09:43] {Threei}  still no support
[09:44] {ese} spyders trapped  more than a few takers this morning thats for sure......
[09:45] {Threei}  my expectation were set for selling, but nor right out of the gate and this intense
[09:46] {ese} spain
[09:47] {Threei}  spain is so done...
[09:47] {thomcbell} holy christmas - wynn!
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  34 break hl
[09:48] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:51] {Threei}  looks good
[09:51] {Threei}  should be 1:2, 1:3
[09:54] {Threei}  holding .90 on every pullback so far
[09:54] {Threei}  if loses it, switch to .80 - .90 setup
[09:54] {ese} cool L cvh .87.......and it just pops right up there
[09:55] {ese} what can i say ...some people just know how to live right
[09:56] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .85 break
[09:56] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:57] {Threei}  SPY lost another support
[09:58] {Threei}  so did FCX
[09:58] {thomcbell} fcx around the pivot is interesting to me long 33.53
[09:59] {ese} stop out cvh .06 +.19
[09:59] {Threei}  as skeptical as I was about this gap, I didn't expect it to sell with not as much as 1 minute of upward move
[10:00] {thomcbell} agreed
[10:00] {ese} double agree
[10:01] {thomcbell} aapl has fight today
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .40 break
[10:01] {Threei}  stop under .30
[10:01] {Threei}  target .90
[10:01] {Threei}  1:1
[10:02] {Threei}  1:2
[10:02] {Threei}  1:3
[10:02] {Threei}  stop for balance to .45
[10:03] {Threei}  OK
[10:03] {Threei}  not bad for the first worthy bounce
[10:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .85 break
[10:05] {Threei}  stop under .75
[10:05] {Threei}  clean double bottom
[10:05] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:07] {Threei}  come on SPY, raise your head
[10:07] {Threei}  grrr
[10:07] {Threei}  no go
[10:10] {Threei}  this immediate selling left us with no short setups as there was no slightest consolidation anywhere, and no longs work yet
[10:10] {Threei}  well, one did
[10:10] {Threei}  no sign of bottom still
[10:10] {Threei}  133 is not likely to holg
[10:10] {Threei}  hold
[10:12] {Threei}  IWM tries for DB again
[10:12] {Threei}  not sure it's worth the risk
[10:13] {Threei}  maybe after one more pullback and proof that it can hold .60
[10:15] {Threei}  not getting setups...
[10:18] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  46 break
[10:18] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:18] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:19] {Threei}  1:1
[10:20] {Threei}  stop to .01 for the balance
[10:21] {ese} L cvh .13
[10:22] {Threei}  changing my mind on target, 1:3
[10:22] {Threei}  1:2, 1/4 more out
[10:23] {ese} hmmmmmm
[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break hl
[10:23] {Threei}  stop .91 last piece LVS
[10:23] {Threei}  bidding .71
[10:24] {Threei}  IWM, if holds .60 of course'
[10:24] {Threei}  out LVS in full
[10:25] {Threei}  finally decent one
[10:26] {Threei}  sheesh IWM
[10:27] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  ,55 hl
[10:27] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:28] {ese} out cvh .27 +.14  gotta go catch ya tomorrow
[10:29] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:33] {Threei}  now CAT decided to break down
[10:34] {scottie} not for long
[10:34] {Threei}  yeah, leaving it alone, too hectic
[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .35 break
[10:38] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[10:39] {Threei}  (PT) Portugal Central Bank reiterates calls for a banking union in Europe; along with commonality of fiscal rules within the EMU
[10:39] {Threei}  isn't it funny
[10:39] {Threei}  weaker members insist on common banking
[10:39] {Threei}  stronger ones say, heck, for us to carry your burden?
[10:41] {Threei}  (EU) EU Official: Spanish funds may come from the EFSF rather than the ESM, via EFSF bonds, may later be taken over by the ESM
[10:43] {Threei}  sheesh
[10:44] {Threei}  I start seriously disliking this day
[10:44] {dino} yeah, feels like euro is ready to blow up
[10:45] {Threei}  yes, but normally I trade this turn of events very profitably
[10:45] {Threei}  and today leaves me with very few good setups
[10:45] {Threei}  even though my firat thought was:
[10:46] {Threei}  [09:26] {Threei} my working assumption: after morning dust settles, selling should become theme of the day
[10:47] {dino} call spike
[10:48] {dino} sm s .00
[10:51] {Threei}  markets are solidly in red now
[10:51] {Threei}  with no bounce in sight
[10:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .35 break
[10:58] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[11:02] {Threei}  1:1
[11:07] {Threei}  (ES) ECB's Coene: Spain bailout should prevent any further contagion.
[11:07] {Threei}  wanna bet?
[11:09] {dino} these guys are clueless
[11:09] {Threei}  they just say and do random things now
[11:09] {Threei}  panic mode
[11:10] {Threei}  things unravel before their very eyes and they can do squat about that
[11:17] {Threei}  nemo, what say you
[11:17] {Threei}  time for bounce?
[11:21] {thomcbell} coming right to pivot on spy here
[11:21] {Threei}  and TNA doesn;t make new low
[11:21] {Threei}  while SPY just did
[11:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .70 break
[11:21] {Threei}  aww
[11:21] {Threei}  too fast
[11:21] {Threei}  pullback
[11:21] {Threei}  in
[11:22] {Threei}  stop under day's low
[11:22] {Threei}  .58
[11:22] {Threei}  1:1
[11:22] {Threei}  half out
[11:22] {Threei}  stop to .65
[11:22] {Threei}  target 48.20
[11:23] {Threei}  1:2
[11:23] {Threei}  stop .69
[11:25] {Threei}  ok, out balance
[11:26] {Threei}  decent one anyway, don't want to guess about the next step
[11:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
[11:30] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[11:30] {Threei}  IMO, bounce time is here
[11:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  46 break
[11:33] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:33] {Threei}  IWM target 1:3
[11:33] {Threei}  LVS 1:4
[11:34] {Threei}  1:1 IWM
[11:35] {Threei}  stop to .45
[11:36] {Threei}  LVS 1:1
[11:37] {Threei}  stop to .97
[11:39] {Threei}  1:2 IWM
[11:40] {Threei}  LVS 1:2
[11:40] {Threei}  day-fixing set of trades
[11:41] {Threei}  IWM stop is .49 now, LVS .05
[11:46] {Threei}  done with both
[11:47] {scottie} +.21 on lvs thanks Vad
[11:48] {scottie} on IWM sorry
[11:49] {Threei}  :)
[11:50] {scottie} liking more my day with the last couple of trades
[11:51] {Threei}  yeah
[11:52] {Threei}  this sudden drop at the open kind of took away our trades
[11:59] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PASOK party leader Venezelos: Told Italy PM that the least favorable terms of the bailout deal for Greece need to be revised- Monti "appreciated" the request, brought up a bank deposit guarantee framework. ***Note that on May 27th, Venizelos reiterated proposal to soften Greece bailout terms; Says one year extension already received support from EU's Juncker.
[12:00] {Threei}  so, pro-bailout parties in Greece found their song to win election: thet took a page from Syritsa book and demand renegotiating terms
[12:00] {Threei}  never mind that they accepted draconian terms in the first place
[12:19] {Threei}  breakdown or bounce?
[12:23] {Threei}  anyone?
[12:23] {nemo} 132.50 is spy pivot
[12:24] {scottie} I'll bet $100 on bounce
[12:24] {Threei}  lol, twitter:
[12:24] {Threei}  Let me make sure I have this straight, a $125 billion bailout only buys us a 3 hour rally into resistance and a Facebook uptick? Tuff crowd
[12:24] {Threei}  rofl
[12:24] {nemo} yeah, saw that
[12:30] {scottie} TNA db?
[12:33] {Threei}  trying to gauge just that
[12:33] {Threei}  feels like slightly more probable than new lows
[12:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break hl
[12:33] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[12:35] {scottie} in .50
[12:35] {Threei}  wow... did you move it singlehandedly? :)
[12:38] {Threei}  1 cent to 1:1... come on
[12:39] {Threei}  1:1
[12:40] {scottie} half out +.10
[12:40] {scottie} stop ?
[12:41] {Threei}  .48
[12:45] {Threei}  1:2
[12:45] {Threei}  me is much much happier
[12:46] {scottie} 1/4 out .70
[12:46] {dino} gj
[12:47] {Beau} me too thx vad
[12:51] {Threei}  :)
[12:54] {scottie} out in full ty Vad
[12:54] {Threei}  yw
[12:55] {Threei}  SPY feels to me like more recovery in cards for now
[12:55] {Threei}  and probably eod selloff
[12:55] {Threei}  looking for a vehicle to try and ride this recovery part
[13:04] {Threei}  who missed an e-mail,
[13:04] {Threei}  http://blog.realitytrader.com/2012/06/three-kinds-of-crash-re-visited.html
[13:06] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
[13:07] {Threei}  If holds  .40  scalpers, .35 day traders
[13:15] {Threei}  half out
[13:25] {scottie} sold half at +.10 and the rest flat
[13:26] {Threei}  yup
[13:29] {Threei}  getting management down pretty well, scottie, eh?
[13:30] {scottie} improving...
[13:41] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Rehn: Need to map out steps to reach an 'economic union' - comments at European Parliament in Strasbourg- Now is the time for an economic and monetary union "version 2.0" - Comments that some sovereignty must be transferred for fiscal integration
[13:42] {Threei}  version 2 - because version worked so well, right?
[13:42] {Threei}  version 1
[13:43] {Threei}  give uo sovereignity for intergation - this is stuff that starts wars, you imbeciles
[13:43] {Threei}  I swear they won't quit until they get one
[13:50] {scottie} FAS db ?
[13:53] {Threei}  I don't feel confident about bounce
[13:54] {Threei}  SPY break of 133 should have brought much more upside before fizzling out
[13:54] {Threei}  dropping back under it and even retreating to day's low is very bearish
[14:17] {Threei}  huh
[14:17] {Threei}  (ES) International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) comments on Spain bailout deal; is unlikely to trigger CDS- Reminder: Earlier today saw some dealer chatter wondering whether the use of the ESM facility (therefore subordinating certain debt) would trigger credit default swaps payouts
[14:17] {Threei}  remember Greece ISDA scenario?
[14:17] {Threei}  same thing, first they said it's not a credit event
[14:18] {Threei}  in a few days they made u-turn
[14:18] {Threei}  .80 break FAZ
[14:18] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .80 break
[14:19] {Threei}  If holds  .70  scakpers, .65 day traders
[14:22] {Threei}  come on FAZ, no rinzing
[14:31] {Threei}  ugh
[14:31] {Threei}  no go
[14:38] {Threei}  Apple Inc Apple announces Passbook; combines various ticket apps in a virtual wallet; handling tickets and boarding passes; handles store cards as well like the Starbucks app - GPS enabled, allows movie tickets to be available when near theater etc; uses examples such as a Fandango ticket, or a ticket for a professional sports game
[14:39] {Threei}  I'll by Ipad when this app becomes reality:
[14:39] {Threei}  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a8Eimr-fm0
[14:42] {scottie} lol
[14:44] {Threei}  just a scalp:
[14:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  ABX  ,80 if stays above .75
[14:45] {Threei}  change to .75 break
[14:45] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[14:47] {Threei}  offer half .82
[14:59] {Threei}  out
[15:04] {scottie} wynn 100 ?
[15:05] {Threei}  I think so
[15:05] {Threei}  just keep size small
[15:05] {Threei}  pulp
[15:21] {scottie} wynn s 100.00 small
[15:21] {scottie} a bit aggreessive i think
[15:21] {scottie} stop .20
[15:21] {scottie} change to .15
[15:25] {Threei}  nice
[15:26] {scottie} out .85 + .15
[15:26] {scottie} too soon obviously
[15:49] {Threei}  no feeling whether we get another lef of panic selling
[15:49] {Threei}  some short covering is just as likely
[15:54] {Threei}  selling
[15:54] {Threei}  this market is so done
[15:55] {Threei}  if another round of bailouts can't keep it up anymore, what will
[15:56] {Threei}  smewhat happy about digging out of the hole, somewhat disappointed about not using nicely red day to its full potential
[15:57] {Threei}  OK... Tuesdays are usually better
[15:57] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:57] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:57] {scottie} I had a nice day, ty Vad
[15:57] {Threei}  :)
[15:58] {dptl} gn

Nemo's Findings Week of June 10th 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html


The week that was in IWM SPY:

• "The broken clock is right twice a day" principle struck this week (o.k., in my case-once) when I said in the video last week that the confluence of levels, on the IWM could serve as support much as a net, and they did.
• Perhaps more interestingly is that both SPY and IWM bottomed at, or within .$.10 of the monthly S1
• Notice SPY maintained the upward trend it began at the bottom, so, "The trend is your friend".  I'm not yet seeing definitive weakness on higher time frame charts
• We are in a short term channel, arguably Inverted Head & Shoulders on both IWM and SPY, the descending 50 day SMA likely first targets.
• Going out on a limb here for Monday:  we gap up massively...

On a more macro note:  It's all Europe all the time. A premise I hold, which is hardly original, is that political solutions are almost NEVER the best operational solution for a given problem.  

Europe faces the decision to either subsume their cultural identities, which have been formed over centuries, to create a monetary/fiscal union where each culture answers to some central authority, or face some type of break up of the Euro.  Whether it's the weaker countries leaving, the stronger countries leaving, or the total dissolution, is up to the powers to be...which brings me back to my premise... 

"But Captain, I think the deck chairs would look better this way..."

Here are the images for next week:

  

Market Week Wrap-up

- It would be a stretch to say that there was much good news for the global economy this week, however there was a marked absence of straight up bad news. European nations edged closer to convincing Spain to accept a bailout for its troubled banking sector, and all week long there were headline suggesting that the announcement of a preliminary bailout deal of some sort was imminent. With Germany and the ECB flatly ruling out any direct lending to banks from euro zone bailout funds, it appears that any bailout will involve a line of credit for Madrid or its FROB bank resolution fund. On Friday, there were reports that the major players would have a conference call on Saturday, and other reports suggested some kind of arrangement could be announced before the open next Monday. Note that Spanish officials have protested that they must wait for the completion of an audit of the banking system before any concrete aid figure can be requested. The ECB held rates steady and announced no new major initiatives at the June rate decision on Wednesday. President Draghi celebrated the impact of the two three-year LTROs, asserting again that they have improved key indicators of distress and prevented a more serious credit crunch, and said there would not be another operation anytime soon. In testimony before Congress, Fed Chairman Bernanke sought to temper expectations for additional easing at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Bernanke commented that while past QE has helped bring down rates (and boost equity prices), there would be "diminishing returns" from any additional easing. China cut interest rates on Thursday in a rare mid-week decision, leaving analysts debating whether the move was designed to help bolster dire conditions in local funding markets or possibly pre-empt poor economic data. China is schedule to release a variety of May economic reports over the weekend. Both US and European equity markets recouped some or all of the steep losses seen last week, and US markets saw their biggest gains of the year. The DJIA gained 3.6% on the week, while the S&P500 added 3.7% and the Nasdaq surged 4%.

- The US homebuilders segment got a shot in the arm this week with the release of Hovnanian's stunning Q2 results. Earnings and revenue totals out of Hovnanian blew away consensus expectations, while the firm's backlog was up 48% on a y/y basis. Hovnanian's CEO said that the company sold more homes per community in April 2012, excluding a September 2007 promotional blip, than it has in any month since the spring selling season of 2006. Shares of HOV were up more than 20% on the week, while other leading homebuilders were up 5-10% a piece.

- Shares of Navistar tumbled 25% on Thursday following the firm's terrible Q2 earnings report. Navistar booked an enormous loss thanks to a raft of special items, including charges for warranty costs and some income tax valuations. Executives also explained that customers held off on purchases due to uncertainty surrounding the EPA review of its new low-emission diesel truck engines. It also slashed its FY12 outlook, warning that on the low end EPS could be zero for the year. Shares of NAV recouped all of their losses by Friday, after strategic investor Carl Icahn used the recent weakness to add to his stake which now stands at close to 12%.

- Chesapeake Energy was in focus on Friday as the troubled company met for its annual shareholder meeting. With CEO McClendon under tight scrutiny for alleged conflicts of interest and other improprieties, investors were in an ugly mood. They managed to force two board members to resign and voted against the executive compensation package. Ahead of the meeting, Chesapeake confirmed that it would sell a batch of midstream assets in three transactions valued up to $4.0B, putting it about halfway through its ongoing divestment process.

- After last week's hammering, the euro managed to regain some ground this week, although EUR/USD remained well contained within the 1.2300-1.2600 range established late last week. On Wednesday the ECB left its key interest rates unchanged and did not announce any new measures to combat the European debt crisis, but did extend the term of several temporary refi operations until January 2013. ECB Chief Draghi ruled out more three-year LTRO operations, saying he does not believe all the opportunities offered by second three-year LTRO have been fully exploited. The technical failure to move above the former January low of 1.2630 painted a bearish picture for the single currency. Dealers are watching to see whether Spain will finally cave in to pressure from Germany and request aid for its banking sector this weekend. Late in the week some euro softness was blamed on the Swiss National Bank. Switzerland's May FX reserve data illustrated the determination of the Swiss National Bank to defend the EUR/CHF floor at 1.2000: reserves rose by approximately CHF65B, to a total of CHF304B. Unsubstantiated rumors claimed that the SNB might be legging out of a portion of the euros it has accumulated from its defense of the EUR/CHF floor at 1.2000.

- The People's Bank of China accelerated its monetary easing efforts on Thursday, cutting the one-year lending and deposit rates by 25 bps apiece, to 6.31% and 3.25%, respectively. Though widely speculated by analysts and fixed income market observers who were quick to point to a suspicious CNY20B repo operation on Thursday, the easing did provide a risk-on jolt across asset classes, briefly sending AUD/USD to parity and copper prices to their best levels of the week, above $3.40. Investors are still grappling with what extent the PBoC move reflects deterioration of fundamentals and bank lending activity in April, as opposed to being a warning shot ahead of the release of May economic data this weekend.

- Rate decisions from central banks in Korea and Australia were largely in line with expectations. The BoK stood pat at 3.25% but acknowledged that downside risks to growth are on the rise. The RBA cut by 25bps to 3.50%, citing further moderation in China growth and cloudy economic prospects in Europe, but it was surprisingly upbeat on the domestic economy. Much better than expected employment, trade, and GDP data released later in the week corroborated the less dovish than anticipated tone out of the RBA. April trade figures saw a 4-month high, while Q1 GDP on a y/y basis was a multi-year high 4.3% against 3.3% consensus. Australia May employment saw 39K net new jobs created against expectations of no growth, as labor participation component rose sharply to a 6-month high 65.5%.

TradeTheNews

June 08 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  



Empty day with slow action and no volume.


Session Time: Fri Jun 08 00:00:00 2012
[09:11] {Threei}  (US) President Obama schedules press conference for 10:15ET; discussion of the economy and the European situation
[09:11] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:11] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:12] {dptl} gm
[09:14] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:17] {thomcbell} either bhp is a long or fcx is a short
[09:17] {thomcbell} wait to see the initial price action
[09:18] {Threei}  why can't it be both long or short?
[09:22] {scottie} gm
[09:22] {Threei}  scottie :})
[09:24] {ese} morning
[09:24] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:24] {ese} hey vad
[09:25] {ese} just noticed FB is 26.50.....huge disgrace for that ipo
[09:25] {ese} almost dn 20 bills from traded high
[09:26] {Threei}  pathetic really
[09:26] {ese} ya
[09:26] {Threei}  well deserved too
[09:26] {Threei}  ego and greed is a bad mix
[09:26] {ese} yup
[09:26] {ese} don't trust the ceo......slimmy little guy
[09:27] {Threei}  yeech
[09:27] {thomcbell} Vad u should wear the hoodie
[09:27] {Threei}  gives me creeps
[09:27] {ese} somethin about him rubs me the wrong way....don't know what it is but it's something
[09:27] {Threei}  lol tbell
[09:27] {thomcbell} norm hallet with the hoodie would be spectacular
[09:28] {Threei}  hehe
[09:28] {Threei}  I'll pass it to him
[09:28] {ese} no kidding.......theres an image that inspires confidence in the investing public...a hoodie
[09:29] {Threei}  I don't czre about his wardrob but other than that, I severely dislike him
[09:29] {ese} i'm in your camp
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  33 break hl
[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:33] {Threei}  SLW no go
[09:33] {Threei}  FCX target 1:2
[09:34] {Threei}  missed 1:1 cover
[09:34] {Threei}  stop to .06
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: BHP  .90 break hl
[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  62
[09:38] {Threei}  change to .95 break
[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:39] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:39] {Threei}  BHP too
[09:40] {Threei}  stop to .01 FCX
[09:40] {Threei}  .96 BHP
[09:41] {nemo} tpx
[09:42] {nemo} bounce are spy iwm
[09:42] {Threei}  nope
[09:42] {Threei}  one more step dpwn first IMO
[09:43] {nemo} tpx
[09:44] {nemo} tpx
[09:44] {thomcbell} long setup QCOM 57.67 break if holding 57.54 - 1/2 lot
[09:44] {nemo} nav
[09:44] {Threei}  finger stuck in keyboard nemo?? :)
[09:44] {nemo} no
[09:44] {thomcbell} ow lvs
[09:44] {nemo} might wnat to take some tna or iwm here if you took the bounce
[09:45] {Threei}  BHP 1:2
[09:45] {Threei}  out
[09:45] {nemo} long tpx .1
[09:45] {nemo} .01
[09:47] {nemo} tpx if breaks .15
[09:50] {cipher} aapl s.68
[09:51] {cipher} cov .73 -.05
[09:52] {thomcbell} qcom still valid albeit not very exciting
[09:53] {thomcbell} target will be 1:3
[09:53] {thomcbell} ok in with 57.54 stop
[09:54] {thomcbell} qcom 1:1
[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .95 breajk hl
[09:57] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:57] {Threei}  1:1 in a hurry
[10:00] {thomcbell} qcom sold 1/2 here +0.15
[10:00] {thomcbell} stop to 57.69
[10:01] {ese} L su .89
[10:02] {thomcbell} qcom 1:2
[10:02] {thomcbell} sold another 1/4
[10:09] {ese} one would think that su would cover the gap to 28.40.......that would be a nice day
[10:10] {ese} as compared to say yesterday....when it felt like i was the dope de do of dope de do's
[10:12] {ese} out 1/2 .15 +.26
[10:12] {ese} stop to .00 balance
[10:18] {ese} out in full su .23 +.34
[10:19] {Beau} very nice management ese
[10:20] {thomcbell} qcom out
[10:20] {thomcbell} 1:4
[10:20] {Beau} and you tbell
[10:21] {Threei}  wtg
[10:21] {thomcbell} tu
[10:21] {ese} tks B
[10:21] {ese} nice TB
[10:22] {Beau} vad is not the only good teacher here.
[10:25] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .20 break
[10:25] {ese} ah hem...........he is for me
[10:25] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:26] {cipher} aapl l.70
[10:27] {Beau} he is the best, but you all sharing is good too.
[10:27] {dino} nice trades ese, tbell
[10:30] {cipher} out 1/2 aapl .30 +.50
[10:30] {dptl} stopped fcx
[10:30] {dino} gj cipher
[10:31] {ese} tks dino.....am outta here though......catch you all on the flip side.....monday...have a great weekend
[10:31] {thomcbell} qcom near broken support from yesterday
[10:32] {thomcbell} 58.45 - will look for a short setup in that zone
[10:33] {cipher} out rest aapl .50 +.80
[10:34] {Beau} great cip--you buy the beer
[10:35] {cipher} buying but not drinking :-)
[10:35] {cipher} I gave up beer
[10:35] {cipher} too much calories
[10:36] {thomcbell} god forbid this clown talked about an energy policy with all these names down so much in energy patch
[10:37] {thomcbell} could make your month today
[10:38] {cipher} tza l .41
[10:39] {dino} cipher, its the carbs not the calories. my advice, drink heavily
[10:39] {Threei}  O on tv
[10:40] {cipher} out tza scalp .47
[10:41] {cipher} well I'll do some research on it dino
[10:41] {cipher} maybe I'm punishing myself for no reason
[10:43] {dino} lng l .35
[10:43] {dino} miller lite, ultra, bud 55, mgd 67, busch light all very low carbs
[10:45] {Beau} Kaliber by Guinness.  Just like the real stuff
[10:45] {dino} dks sm l .50
[10:46] {dino} fosl sm l .50
[10:46] {thomcbell} looking for qcom and lvs short setups here
[10:47] {thomcbell} both at or near pivot
[10:49] {Threei}  lol
[10:49] {Threei}  Obama: Sorry I'm late, I was busy Saving or Creating Jobs� and time just got away from me
[10:50] {thomcbell} qcom 58.43 break if holding 58.51
[10:52] {thomcbell} target 1:3
[10:54] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .40 break hl
[10:54] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:57] {Threei}  should've made it two-sided
[10:57] {thomcbell} stopped qcom -.08
[11:00] {thomcbell} looking for another setup on both names
[11:06] {dino} titn sm l .28
[11:08] {dino} fosl stop -.30
[11:10] {thomcbell} can make a case for initiating a short on qcom here with 58.62 stop
[11:14] {thomcbell} stop to 58.52 on qcom short
[11:20] {thomcbell} lvs was there better play obviously
[11:24] {dino} fosl sm l .08
[11:26] {Threei}  not finding much today
[11:30] {thomcbell} im watching
[11:40] {dino}  zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[11:41] {Threei}  very much
[11:41] {Threei}  but with Spain is very likely to ask for bailout over the weekend, we should see some action yet
[11:45] {Threei}  - US equities are perking up after a slow start this morning, shrugging off weight from Asia and Europe to trade at session highs mid morning. Note however that volumes are very light.
[11:45] {Threei}  Coming into the US session there were reports that European officials would hold a conference call tomorrow to discuss Spain, prompting rumors that the long-anticipated bailout was at hand. Officials in Madrid confirmed that the call would take place and would discuss the situation in Spain
[11:52] {dino} out titn .78, +.50
[11:56] {thomcbell} lvs oof
[12:00] {dptl} yam .70long?
[12:00] {dptl} yum
[12:00] {Threei}  nah
[12:02] {dino} hmmm, i think yes, break of recent high w higher low
[12:03] {dino} yum sm l .71 ave
[12:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .85 break
[12:13] {dino} thx dptl, out yum .00, +.30
[12:13] {dino} \opps .29
[12:13] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[12:15] {dptl} yw
[12:19] {dino} out fosl .54, +.46
[12:24] {dino} tumi spike
[12:32] {Threei}  no news
[12:33] {dino} wow fosl kept going
[12:35] {dino} out lng .48, +.13
[12:56] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .55 break
[13:00] {Threei}  change to .50
[13:00] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[13:25] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  ..35 break
[13:25] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[13:40] {Threei}  half out
[13:40] {Threei}  stop to .34
[14:03] {dino} gotta hop. out dks .99 +.49
[14:03] {dino} thx all, have ood weekend
[14:04] {Threei}  have fun dino
[14:04] {Threei}  hope he meant good, not "ood" whatever that is
[14:12] {Threei}  (CA) Canada Fin Min Flaherty: Sees Q2 growth as moderate; concerned about relative weakness of the US- Affirms Canada has contingency plans in the case of a worsening Europe scenario.
[14:13] {Threei}  my guess is, cntongency plan if to take fetal position and cry
[14:13] {Threei}  (ES) ECB's Constancio, asked if Spain request for aid could come tomorrow, says "anything is possible" - radio interview- Constancio reiterates that he expects Spain will make an aid request and the sooner the better.
[14:42] {Beau} have a good weekend you all
[14:43] {Threei}  take care Beau
[15:06] {Threei}  guess who is on TV
[15:07] {nemo} wow...haven't done this in a while
[15:08] {nemo} spy has walked right up that trendline from Monday
[15:08] {nemo} IWM pretty much also
[15:08] {Threei}  sounds almost like "spy who came from cold"
[15:11] {nemo} looks like next week seriously up
[15:12] {Threei}  unless Europe falls apart
[15:13] {nemo} not at least until after Greek elections
[15:13] {Threei}  well... they may surprise us and let Spain go dow the drain before that
[15:14] {nemo} nah, can let Greece go, can't do that with spain
[15:19] {Threei}  well, they may drop it accidentally :)
[15:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .55 break
[15:24] {Threei}  change to .50
[15:25] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[15:27] {Threei}  nah
[15:44] {thomcbell} how is volume guys?
[15:44] {Threei}  negligible
[15:44] {Threei}  half of yesterday's
[15:45] {thomcbell} certainly a missing ingredient
[15:45] {Threei}  no wonder I can't find anything
[15:46] {thomcbell} what a wacky day over at LVS
[15:49] {Threei}  now TNA goes
[15:55] {Threei}  OK guys, pretty much empty day
[15:56] {Threei}  have a great weekend, see you monday
[15:56] {thomcbell} good weekend all
[15:59] {dptl} gn
[16:01] {cipher} gn
[16:01] {cc_8} ltrs

June 07 2012

Nice and strong day with quite a few trades working for 1:2 and 1:3. One is particularly elegant. Some trades are not just profitable, they are also very satisfying as they have a strict structure and behave cleanly. You can liken it to an engineer admiring well-designed construction or a chess player observing his plan playing out to the T. It's an aggressive entry on Cup & Handle setup. Those who took 111 TRADES online course know this setup as well as different ways to play it. One that unfolded today is my personal favorite. Read the running comments on the left of the chart and find the elements annotated at the right to decode the logic of the play.

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html)  





Session Time: Thu Jun 07 00:00:00 2012
08:49] {Threei}  market hasn't opened yet but we already have that dreadful chart of a slow climb
[08:51] {cipher} gm
08:51] {Threei}  cipher :)
[08:52] {thomcbell} sheldon got his fix
08:52] {Threei}  lol
[08:59] {thomcbell} fcx should test broken support and downtrend line at 35 some time today 
[09:00] {thomcbell} want to look for an early long entry 
09:05] {Threei}  let's let it work out opening volatility and look for a setup
[09:08] {scottie} gm
09:09] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:11] {Beau} morning all
09:11] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:18] {dptl} gm
09:18] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:25] {ese} morning.......2 weeks to go from today..........and......as Alice Cooper said "Schools out for ever"...well at least for the summer
09:25] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:25] {ese} gm vad
[09:27] {ese} how bout that greek tv show.......extreme right guy gets up and slaps politicians from other parties
[09:27] {ese} on live tv
09:27] {Threei}  yeah... hope they have jail time for that
[09:27] {ese} wish somebody would do that to Harper 
09:27] {Threei}  oh come on
09:27] {Threei}  what did he do to deserve that
[09:28] {ese} he's a sneeky guy
09:28] {Threei}  ever saw politician who wasn't?
[09:29] {ese} true.......
[09:30] {thomcbell} wow lvs 
09:30] {Threei}  ABX more selling
09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break hl
09:32] {Threei}  stop above .30
09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break hl
09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
[09:36] {dptl} in slw
09:38] {Threei}  no go SLW
[09:38] {dptl} stopped
09:38] {Threei}  FCX target 1:3
09:38] {Threei}  1:1
09:41] {Threei}  missed 1:2 by 1 cent
09:42] {Threei} Short Setup: ABX  .50 break hl
09:42] {Threei}  If holds  .60 
[09:44] {scottie} +.10 fcx ty
09:45] {Threei}  yw
09:45] {Threei}  ABX valid
09:45] {Threei}  SLW rinsed
[09:47] {dptl} to fast abx
09:48] {Threei}  it returned to pick you up
09:48] {Threei}  frikin SLW
09:49] {Threei}  1:1 ABX
[09:49] {dptl} almost went to 1:1 so i skipped that
[09:50] {scottie} hit wrong button, out at +.08, lucky lol
09:50] {Threei}  yikes... lol
09:50] {Threei}  out in full ABX
09:50] {Threei}  .32
[09:52] {dptl} pay .40?
09:52] {Threei}  I don't understand the setup
09:53] {Threei}  wow... what a pretty double top we missed on LVS
[09:55] {thomcbell} i got it but it was not pleasant
09:56] {Threei}  I mean .50 break at 9:42
[09:56] {thomcbell} y
09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break hl
09:57] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[09:57] {dptl} in
09:58] {Threei}  trail to .36
[09:58] {ese} L sprd .55
[09:59] {ese} crappy fill....was lookin for .51
10:00] {Threei}  why do you use market orders?
10:00] {Threei}  1:1
10:01] {Threei}  US) Fitch Sovereign Director Parker: Would cut US AAA sovereign rating if no credible fiscal plan presented for 2013 (Currently on negative outlook)
10:01] {Threei}  - May cut UK rating further if further downturn materializes; notes that UK, France, Germany and other AAA nations do have credible fiscal plans
10:01] {Threei}  - Reminder: In Aug 2011 S&P cut the US sovereign rating by one notch
10:01] {Threei}  - In Nov of 2011, Fitch revised the US' outlook to Negative from Stable and affirmed its AAA rating.
10:01] {Threei}  - Reminder: In February S&P's Chambers indicated that it would be unlikely for S&P to make any adjustments before the November election, highlighted that politics and the debt debate were part of the reasons that led to the downgrade last year
[10:01] {ese} cuz i was lookin at fcx with you......didn't want to miss it
[10:01] {scottie} out fcx + .15 ty
[10:01] {dptl} all out fcx ty
10:01] {Threei}  1:2
[10:02] {thomcbell} give me a break slw 
10:02] {Threei}  but ese... just make it limit at the price you are willing to chase to
10:02] {Threei}  .52 let's say
[10:02] {ese} missed yours.......crappy fill on mine.......it's a whatever
10:03] {Threei}  out FCX in full too
10:03] {Threei}  or as nemo would correct me: limit at the price to which you are willing to chase
[10:03] {dino}   ty fcx 3i
[10:03] {ese} ya thats the other part.....thought that i had.....pressed the wrong button......happens periodically when i'm tired
10:03] {Threei}  yw
10:04] {Threei}  I dunno who is more annoying, SLW or nemo {G}
[10:04] {ese} nemo easily........
[10:04] {thomcbell} slw definitely more annoying
10:04] {Threei}  yeah, while he is not here, let's crown him wiht "more annoying than SLW rinse" title
[10:06] {ese} am not worried about sprd.........i love the look of the daily.....this baby is headed up.........I"M COMMITTED}}}}}I"VE TAKEN A STAND!!!!!! and thats all there is too it..........hmmmmmmm  i feel better now
[10:06] {ese} lol
10:07] {Threei}  ok, now that you got it off your chest... your stop is under .40? :)
[10:07] {ese} yup.......35 to be exact
10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: MW  .70 break sm shares
10:08] {Threei}  If holds  .80 
[10:09] {ese} daaaaaaaaa stopped .35
10:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break
10:12] {Threei}  hl
10:12] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[10:12] {ese} mrkt picked a lousy time to drift.......it just didn't understand that I had a position.......i'm sure that if it had know it wouldn't have drifted down.......it's all about me you understand
10:12] {Threei}  right
[10:12] {ese} in lvs.51
10:12] {Threei}  target 1:4
[10:13] {nemo} bounce area tna spy
10:13] {Threei}  nemo came to claim his title...
[10:13] {dino} you ok ese? :O
[10:14] {nemo} no..nephew, collapsed in school, just got back
[10:14] {dptl} stopped lvs
10:14] {Threei}  ugh... sorry
[10:14] {ese} stopped.40
[10:14] {ese} hmmmmmmm......turnin out to be one a dem days
[10:15] {ese} mornin dino.......lol
[10:16] {ese} what happened nemo?  
[10:17] {dino} hope he's alright nemo
[10:17] {scottie} acom DB?
[10:17] {dino} mw sm l .00
10:18] {Threei}  formally yes, but I doubt it's a good play right now
[10:18] {dino} nav sm l .60
[10:18] {scottie} forget it spread is too large
10:18] {Threei}  yeah
10:18] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .50 break
10:18] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[10:19] {dino} out nav .10, +.50
10:20] {Threei}  nice
[10:20] {ese} nice dino
[10:21] {nemo} what was the jobs report
[10:21] {dino} ty
[10:21] {dino} a couple thousand better
10:23] {Threei}  no go
[10:24] {ese} what was the deal with MW dino?
[10:25] {dino} missed
[10:25] {cipher} TZA L .00
[10:25] {dptl} atvi .70 short?
[10:25] {dino} out mw flat
10:26] {Threei}  no
[10:26] {cipher} out -.12
[10:28] {dino} gco sm l .25, pulp type
[10:28] {dino} mw sm l .90
[10:28] {dino} stop break lod
[10:29] {dino} ung drop
[10:29] {dino} boil too
10:30] {Threei}  *(US) EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +62 BCF V +55 BCF TO +60 BCF EXPECTED RANGE
10:30] {Threei}  that's why
[10:31] {dino} ty
[10:31] {dino} gap 16.16
10:33] {Threei}  feeling is, activity is here for a while yet but I can't get a sense of direction
[10:35] {nemo} IWM bounced off of Weekly R1, SPY bounced off retracement from May 28 high to recent swing low
[10:36] {nemo} MPP on spy 134.4 area, IWM 77.98
[10:39] {dino} gco stop -.32
[10:39] {dino} mw stop -.10
10:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .10 break
10:42] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .20 C&H
[10:42] {dptl} in
10:42] {Threei}  stop is obvious, under 21
10:44] {Threei}  formation matches SPY inverted C&H with 132.50 break
10:45] {Threei}  target 1:3
10:45] {Threei}  1:1
10:46] {Threei}  stop to .08
10:48] {Threei}  1:2
10:48] {Threei}  stop to .14
10:49] {Threei}  to .18
[10:51] {dino} nice
10:51] {Threei}  ty
10:51] {Threei}  really beautoful structure to the play
10:51] {Threei}  1:3 target hit, out
[10:51] {scottie} +.30 great call Vad
10:51] {Threei}  hey, good to see you went fropm scalps to fiull play
10:52] {Threei}  let me make a screenshot for the visual, this is one for the books
[10:52] {scottie} More confident, feels good
10:52] {Threei}  :)
[10:54] {dino} pvh sm l ave .73
[10:54] {dino} titn sm l .10
[10:55] {dptl} etn .40short?
10:55] {Threei}  yes
10:56] {Threei}  nice chart
[10:56] {nemo} akam
[10:57] {thomcbell} yes on etn - i have been trading this one a lot - been a real value trap 
[10:57] {dino} titn stop -,20
[11:01] {ese} gotta go ....one of dem days...cya tomorrow
[11:01] {dino} lng l .15
[11:02] {cipher} titn l.80
[11:06] {dptl} still valid etn
[11:07] {dino} out pvh .07 +.34
[11:07] {dptl} invalidated 
11:09] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/E893y
[11:09] {dino} nice titn cipher
[11:09] {cipher} out titn .19 +.39
[11:10] {dptl} you think its still valid?Vad etn?
[11:10] {cipher} thx for the heads up
11:10] {Threei}  I think so
[11:10] {dptl} k
11:10] {Threei}  I really like this support to break and cascade
11:11] {Threei}  1:2 easy
[11:11] {dino} its what i do
11:12] {Threei}  break and cascade?
[11:12] {dptl} in
[11:13] {dino} no talking to cipher
11:13] {Threei}  hehe
[11:15] {thomcbell} nice action lvs - hehehe
[11:16] {dino} titn sm l .50
[11:25] {dptl} stopped....
[11:25] {dptl} taking a break
11:26] {Threei}  moves with SPY
[11:28] {nemo} are we in a coma yet?
11:28] {Threei}  not sure
[11:29] {dino} out titn .91, +.41
11:29] {Threei}  nice one
[11:29] {dino} ty
[11:29] {dino} hit and miss day so far
[11:38] {dino} mw sn m l .15
[11:39] {dino} out lng .34 +.19
[11:39] {dino} pvh sm l .72
[11:51] {dino} out pvh .26, +.54
11:53] {Threei}  nice back to back wins
[11:54] {dino} ty
[12:26] {dptl} fcx .95 short?
12:26] {Threei}  nah
12:26] {Threei}  SPY is more likely to bounce here
12:48] {Threei}  *(ES) FITCH DOWNGRADES SPAIN SOVEREIGN RATING THREE NOTCHES TO BBB FROM A; OUTLOOK NEGATIVE
12:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .20 break
12:55] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
12:55] {Threei}  Invalidated  
12:57] {Threei}  if dives under .10 again, make it 48 - .1- setup
12:57] {Threei}  .10
12:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .10 break
12:58] {Threei}  heh... 1:1
12:58] {Threei}  good luck getting a fill though
12:59] {Threei}  unless you just hit .10 itself, no chance
[12:59] {nemo} what, taking it off the trend line?
12:59] {Threei}  better yet:
[12:59] {dptl} sometimes i think my quotes delay...put it on the screen and its at .20
13:00] {Threei}  lower envelope of an uptrending line, and upper envelope of downtrending one
13:01] {Threei}  so it bounces of the former while breaking the latter
13:01] {Threei}  perfect long signal
13:01] {Threei}  dp... it had to be on screen from 12:54] {Threei} Long Setup: TNA .20 break
13:01] {Threei}  after that cpmments were follow-up
13:02] {Threei}  if you switched to it only after the second call, most likjely you'd see .20 as it jumped very fast after taking .10
[13:02] {nemo} would you add that setup to today's log so I can read it, thanks
13:03] {Threei}  you mean a screenshot?
[13:03] {nemo} annotated please
13:03] {Threei}  let me make one
[13:04] {nemo} why don't you do that
[13:09] {nemo} oh, ty, get it
[13:10] {nemo} looks like it's going to pop here iwm at long term trend line upper channel
13:10] {Threei}  bigger one continues, smaller one breaks...
[13:11] {nemo} this should be good to .75 or so when it goes, at least .60
[13:11] {nemo} "if"
13:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
[13:12] {nemo} I took tna .20
[13:13] {nemo} market trading?
13:14] {Threei}  yes... you made 10 cents
[13:14] {nemo} taking 1st at .40
[13:14] {nemo} yep
13:14] {Threei}  20
[13:14] {nemo} this could be the afternoon run, want .60 area next piece
[13:15] {nemo} am I being greedy?
[13:16] {nemo} I think price gets to monthly pivots today
13:16] {Threei}  More than half of high school seniors admit they text or email while driving, according to anonymous US survey
[13:16] {dino}  vrtx sm l .01
[13:16] {nemo} kid in boston just got convicted yesterday of vehicular manslaughter while texting
[13:16] {nemo} he's 17, he gets out when he's 18
[13:17] {nemo} I've seen people driving with their knees while texting...un believeable
[13:17] {dptl} stop .74 iwm?
13:17] {Threei}  yes
13:18] {Threei}  half out .89
[13:18] {nemo} wanna' grab them and beat the shit out of them
[13:18] {nemo} 1/4 more
13:18] {Threei}  if you do, double the effort on my behalf
13:18] {Threei}  1/4 more .93
[13:18] {nemo} yeah, I got .61 on tna
13:19] {Threei}  well, believe it or not but we are adjusting to slow climb mode
[13:19] {nemo} well, we're likely to get the afternoon rip.  78 for IWM I think
[13:19] {dino} nemo iwm target?
[13:20] {dino} hitting r1 now
13:20] {Threei}  mine's 77.05 for the last piece
[13:20] {dino} out vrtx .31, +.30
[13:20] {nemo} hard to say, I'm holding last quarter I think we come into afternoon rally with  the 77.20 morning swing high next target, if it breaks that 77.47 and then 78
[13:21] {nemo} http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=fae822b3-e823-450a-8152-427360e6ff57
[13:22] {nemo} if it get's to that .20 area retraces and holds .95 area, I'll look to add
[13:23] {nemo} suppose I should set a stop if it doesn't, huh?
[13:23] {dino} ok, have same chart
[13:23] {nemo} so far so good
[13:24] {dptl} abx .50 short?
[13:24] {nemo} buyers coming into futes
[13:24] {nemo} "giddyap" as you would say, dino
[13:25] {nemo} so we're at swing high, now see if it holds support at R1, which coincides just about with vwap
[13:25] {nemo} sound good to you Dino?
13:26] {Threei}  me out
[13:26] {nemo} pesky scalpers
[13:26] {dptl} abx .50 ?
[13:26] {dino} ok
13:26] {Threei}  yeah
[13:26] {dptl} short?
13:26] {Threei}  half lot
13:27] {Threei}  setup is right, market is uptrending... so half lot to try it
[13:27] {nemo} my stop is .58
[13:27] {dptl} 100 shares in 
[13:28] {nemo} ese shares
13:28] {Threei}  UWM, not too shabby 1:5
13:28] {Threei}  IWM
[13:28] {nemo} or uwm
[13:28] {nemo} same
[13:31] {scottie} hal .80 ?
13:33] {Threei}  tough call... not sure
[13:33] {scottie} ok
[13:35] {dptl} nem .50 short?
13:36] {Threei}  yrs
13:36] {Threei}  yes
[13:36] {nemo} damn, wonder if I get rinsed here
[13:39] {nemo} NAV
[13:39] {dino} out iwm +.15
[13:40] {dptl} .56 stop for abx
[13:42] {nemo} figures, tna in long setup again, got me by .04 
[13:48] {dptl} hal .70 short may be?
13:51] {Threei}  yes... lol
[13:57] {dptl} clf .40 short?
13:58] {Threei}  50/50
[13:58] {dptl} k
13:58] {Threei}  two-sided
[14:00] {nemo} abx offer
[14:00] {nemo} gone
[14:00] {dptl} out abx -.09
[14:00] {scottie} fas reverse C&H?
14:02] {Threei}  kind of... incomplete
[14:14] {dptl} lul 64 long? sm sh
[14:14] {dptl} lulu
[14:15] {dptl} gone
[14:16] {dptl} sigh
[14:21] {dino} clne spike
[14:25] {dptl} slb .30 long?
14:26] {Threei}  halgf
14:26] {Threei}  half
[14:26] {nemo} god bless you
14:26] {Threei}  lol
[14:30] {dino} scss spike
[14:30] {dino} sm s .99
[14:34] {dino} cov flat bad entry
[14:36] {dino} scss sm s .35
[14:40] {dino} cov scss .05, +.30
[14:48] {dino} sm s . 50
[14:48] {cipher} scss +.34 thx dino
[14:48] {dino} gj
[14:52] {dino} cov scss .18, +.32
[15:02] {dptl} nem .85 long?
15:03] {Threei}  nah
15:04] {Threei}  SPY turns down
15:04] {Threei}  can turn a trap very easy
15:18] {Threei}  watching TZA for pullback entry
[15:20] {nemo} spy at bounce zone
15:21] {Threei}  no pullback
15:21] {Threei}  yet
15:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .40 break
15:30] {Threei}  If holds  .35 
[15:30] {dptl} ? its at .46
[15:30] {scottie} .40?
15:30] {Threei}  grrr
15:30] {Threei}  TZA that was
15:30] {Threei}  still available
15:31] {Threei}  watching both...
15:32] {Threei}  who grabbed it, half out
[15:32] {Beau} GOT A@.42
15:32] {Threei}  :)
[15:32] {Beau} sorry caps
15:32] {Threei}  that was the price when I said "still available"
15:32] {Threei}  stop to .39
[15:33] {scottie} +.06 quick scalp have to go bye
15:33] {Threei}  take care scottie
15:38] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[15:38] {Beau} fun time thanks vad
15:38] {Threei}  :)
15:38] {Threei}  nice wsay to finish the day
[15:40] {dptl} out .60    ty  100sh only 
15:40] {Threei}  yw
15:40] {Threei}  FAZ would have woprked too... too bad it wasn't at .40, lol
15:41] {Threei}  we would have grabbed both
15:41] {Threei}  one on purpose, one by mistake
15:41] {Threei}  stop to .49
[15:50] {nemo} if it weren't so late, both spy and IWM at support, but I don't want to push it
15:56] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
15:57] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:57] {dptl} dn

Nemo's midweek update

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

A short video on how the levels are playing out: 

http://youtu.be/ozXHb7M6m44

June 06 2012

Boring but much better in regards to profit day, as we adjust to slow creep-up mode. One trade deserved a chart - I mean, how cute is it to make money on FB? One of our core reversal setups, chart annotations tell the story.

Session Time: Wed Jun 06 00:00:00 2012

[08:58] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/X4FLR

[09:05] {dptl} gm

[09:06] {Threei}  morning dp

[09:13] {cipher} gm

[09:14] {Threei}  cipher :)

[09:15] {ese} morning

[09:15] {Threei}  ese :)

[09:17] {Threei}  Cameron and Obama increase pressure on Merkel over eurozone crisis

[09:17] {Threei}  amazing... pressure to pay for others

[09:21] {Beau} good morning you all

[09:22] {Threei}  beau :)

[09:23] {ese} wheres dino.....I think i've got a live one this morning....scss

[09:24] {ese} dn 23% because of another company in the industry.......bit of an over reaction

[09:24] {nemo} tpx...what happened?

[09:25] {ese} tpx quided lower

[09:25] {Threei}  bad guidance

[09:25] {ese} Guide Q2 EPS -50% y/y implies $0.38 v $0.85e, Rev -5% to -3% y/y implies $325-332M v $394Me; cuts FY12 guidance to $2.70 v $3.93e, R$1.43B v $1.6Be (prior $3.80-3.95, R$1.60-1.65B)  

[09:25] {ese} TPX

[09:26] {ese} has nothing to do with scss

[09:26] {ese} other than being same industry of course

[09:27] {Threei}  FB is gapping ip... how adorable

[09:28] {ese} i like that term vad.....awesome "ip"

[09:29] {ese} as apposed to a full gap up it's a mini "ip"

[09:29] {Threei}  lol

[09:29] {ese} lol

[09:29] {ese} am laughing at my own jokes........

[09:30] {ese} L scss .29

[09:31] {ese} out .80 +.51

[09:33] {ese} that was a "dino lot" 400 shs 

[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: TPX  .90 break sma shares

[09:33] {Threei}  awww... late

[09:33] {ese} great minds.......thats exactly what i was thinkin

[09:34] {Threei}  leave it alone for now

[09:34] {ese} ya

[09:34] {Threei}  needs to work out first volatility

[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break hl

[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .70 

[09:35] {ese} daaaaaaaaaaa...........missed the next up move scss

[09:35] {Threei}  1:1

[09:36] {cipher} +.15 fb thx

[09:36] {Threei}  :)

[09:36] {Threei}  1:2, out

[09:36] {ese} crap....look at it go

[09:36] {nemo} remember when I said they'd go for the Weekly pivots yesterday

[09:36] {thomcbell} wow scss

[09:37] {thomcbell} i bought some at 19.7 for laughs

[09:37] {ese} wow is an understatement

[09:37] {Threei}  nice laughs, lol

[09:37] {ese} laughing all the way to the bank

[09:37] {ese} nice

[09:37] {thomcbell} unbelievable 

[09:37] {thomcbell} thanks for the comment 

[09:39] {ese} one of the no brainers of no brainers that i've ever seen

[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .20 break

[09:42] {Threei}  hl

[09:42] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[09:43] {Threei}  half out .28

[09:43] {Threei}  1:1

[09:44] {Threei}  stop .18

[09:45] {cipher} mon l .20

[09:45] {cipher} out 1/2 .30

[09:46] {ese} fcx......nice move

[09:47] {Threei}  visual http://goo.gl/tnzMY

[09:47] {scottie} gm

[09:47] {ese} AYE LaDDIE!!!!!!!1

[09:48] {cipher} out in full .40 +.20

[09:48] {Threei}  scottie... missed couple nice ones

[09:48] {Threei}  and couple phenomenal

[09:49] {Beau} gj cipher

[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  46 break hl

[09:50] {Threei}  stop under .90

[09:50] {ese} gj C

[09:51] {Threei}  trail to .94

[09:51] {Threei}  out

[09:51] {Threei}  not liking SPY

[09:52] {thomcbell} im short small qcom - with stop at 58.55

[09:52] {thomcbell} entry was 58.45 break

[09:52] {thomcbell} target is 58.10 to 58

[09:53] {scottie} Of course I start with the first losing trade of tjhe day

[09:53] {scottie} I'll read the log tonight and cry

[09:54] {cipher} freakin lvs

[09:54] {Threei}  yeah, strangely jumpy today

[09:55] {Threei}  first trade on it even though profitable behaved weirdly too

[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  28 break

[09:56] {dptl} in

[09:58] {Threei}  1:1, half out

[09:58] {Threei}  stop to .99

[09:59] {scottie} out +.11 ty

[09:59] {Threei}  :)

[10:00] {ese} L DHI .51

[10:05] {thomcbell} qcom flat

[10:06] {ese} out dhi......drifftin on me .45 -}06

[10:07] {cipher} out slw .19 thx

[10:07] {Threei}  yw

[10:07] {Threei}  1/4 out

[10:08] {Threei}  stop to .05

[10:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break hl

[10:08] {Threei}  If holds  .60 

[10:13] {Threei}  SLW stop to .09

[10:14] {cipher} cat l .50

[10:14] {cipher} out .67

[10:15] {ese} L stx .21

[10:17] {Threei}  stop to .64, IWM

[10:19] {Threei}  SLW 1:3, out

[10:19] {dptl} all out slw ty

[10:19] {thomcbell} nice job 

[10:19] {Threei}  ty

[10:19] {Threei}  trying to adjust to this "slow creep-up"

[10:19] {Threei}  good patience dp

[10:19] {dptl} thanx

[10:20] {Threei}  out IWM

[10:21] {Threei}  Ray Bradbury dies at 91

[10:22] {scottie} Great author

[10:22] {Threei}  classic... Martians Chronicles, my childhood favorite

[10:25] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .80 break

[10:25] {ese} L stx avg .18

[10:26] {Threei}  SLW 1:4... monitoring it to see how I'd adjust next trade of this kind

[10:29] {dptl} in faz

[10:29] {Threei}  stop .72

[10:31] {Threei}  .74

[10:31] {Threei}  missed spike to partial

[10:32] {Threei}  - NYSE volume 155M shares, about 9% below its three-month average; - NASDAQ volume 350M shares, about 10% below its three-month average

[10:32] {dptl} out faz

[10:33] {dptl} -.08

[10:34] {dptl} hal .60 long?

[10:34] {ese} out 1/2 a c load ..27+.08

[10:35] {Threei}  if holding .55

[10:35] {ese} balance to break even .19

[10:35] {ese} make that .21 for comissions

[10:37] {cipher} aapl l .16

[10:37] {cipher} out .53

[10:38] {dptl} in hal

[10:39] {ese} out in full stx .34 +.15 on balance.......

[10:39] {ese} haven't done that for a while 2k/2k

[10:39] {ese} good for the day cya tomorow

[10:40] {Threei}  take care ese

[10:42] {Threei}  frikin IWM

[10:42] {nemo} now we're in grindup mode

[10:42] {nemo} we'll likely close the gaps today

[10:43] {dino} gj

[10:44] {dino} open gaps?

[10:44] {nemo} 31st to 1st

[10:44] {nemo} iwm spy

[10:46] {dptl} out hal

[10:46] {Threei}  good one

[10:46] {dptl} ty

[10:52] {dptl} fcx .80short?

[10:52] {Threei}  nah

[10:52] {Threei}  rather .80 cross long after it dives under it

[10:53] {nemo} should retrace here a bit

[11:02] {dptl} sdrl .25 short ? sm sh

[11:02] {Threei}  I doubt it

[11:02] {dptl} k

[11:30] {Threei}  just across the water, from my usual crabbing spot: http://www.timescolonist.com/sports/Private+island+yours+million/6737747/story.html

[11:31] {nemo} tza long .70 stop under .60

[11:31] {nemo} scalp

[11:32] {nemo} we had gap fill on IWM

[11:33] {nemo} spy might still go for gap fill

[11:33] {dino}  1310, 1332, 1353

[11:34] {nemo} probably should get out, it would make sense they try to run the stops at the gap fills

[11:35] {nemo} breaks .75 should get 1:1

[12:20] {nemo} Weekly S1 and daily R# on IWM at .57

[12:20] {nemo} Weekly R1 on spy at 132, think we go there

[12:21] {nemo} daily R3 on IWM that is

[12:43] {nemo} SHW short

[12:50] {nemo} frikin trades like an antarctic mudslide

[13:00] {Threei}  lol

[13:01] {nemo} didn't mean to wake you

[13:02] {nemo} wow slv

[13:04] {Threei}  watching it for bounce

[13:04] {Threei}  SLW too

[13:05] {nemo} gldalso

[13:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLV  .70 break

[13:08] {Threei}  If holds  .65 

[13:13] {nemo} hal halted

[13:16] {dino} lawsuit maybe?

[13:17] {Threei}  no info yet

[13:19] {nemo} think long's setting up

[13:19] {nemo} although I like .25 area spy and .10 area iwm

[13:20] {Threei}  Halliburton Co Provides operation update; experienced increased costs for guar gumThe price of guar gum has inflated more rapidly than previously expected due to concerns over the potential for shortages for the commodity later in 2012. As such, the costs have impacted the company's second quarter North America margins more than anticipated. As a result, the company now believes that its North America margins will be impacted 300 basis points more than its previous guidance of 200 to 250 basis points, for a total impact of 500-550 basis points lower than first quarter levels.

[13:25] {nemo} liking tna long here

[13:29] {scottie} tna scalp +.10 thx nemo

[13:30] {nemo} big volume came in iwm 2 minutes ago and price continued higher, stop would be under .15

[13:30] {nemo} on IWM

[13:32] {nemo} hal open

[13:37] {nemo} target is .27 or so on IWM which is a little above .40 on tna

[13:45] {scottie} That's it for me guys, see you tomorrow

[13:45] {Threei}  take care scottie

[13:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .20 break

[13:47] {Threei}  If holds  .15 

[13:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  HAL  .80 break hl

[13:48] {Threei}  change to .75

[13:49] {Threei}  stop under .70

[13:49] {Threei}  nah

[13:49] {Threei}  SLW invalidated

[13:52] {Threei}  valid again

[13:53] {nemo} IWM SPY potential DB

[13:53] {nemo} careful though, Beige Book

[13:54] {nemo} damn, like tna long here too above .15

[13:55] {Threei}  SLW is off

[13:55] {nemo} upro also looking good

[13:57] {nemo} as spy and iwm volume come to a halt

[13:57] {nemo} tna still set up for .15

[13:59] {Threei}  *(US) FED'S BEIGE BOOK: ACTIVITY EXPANDING AT MODERATE PACE; CONSTRUCTION HAS PICKED UP IN MANY REGIONS; LENDING IS IMPROVING

[14:00] {nemo} long tna .15

[14:01] {nemo} 1/2 .25 and .26

[14:01] {nemo} stop under .10

[14:02] {nemo} .25 break might be worth it

[14:02] {nemo} wow

[14:02] {nemo} sheesh

[14:03] {nemo} cya

[14:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  HAL  .50 break hl

[14:03] {nemo} probably should have stayed in

[14:03] {nemo} now I'm feeling better

[14:04] {Threei}  Invalidated  

[14:04] {dptl} pay .70 short?

[14:05] {Threei}  .80 long looks more probable to me

[14:06] {Threei} Long Setup:  HAL  .50 break hl

[14:06] {Threei}  If holds  .40 

[14:10] {dptl} chk .80 short?

[14:12] {nemo} possible tna bounce here

[14:12] {Threei}  sems to brea breaking downtrend, CHK

[14:18] {Threei} Long Setup:  HAL  .30 break hl

[14:18] {Threei}  If holds  .20 

[14:19] {dptl} in

[14:19] {Threei}  target 1:3

[14:21] {Threei}  no go

[14:21] {Threei}  can't find the footing

[14:23] {nemo} 27.21

[14:23] {dptl} abx .60 long?

[14:24] {nemo} might try bounce at the figure

[14:24] {Threei}  looks right

[14:24] {dptl} in abx

[14:24] {Threei}  stop is obvious

[14:28] {Threei}  1:1

[14:30] {Threei}  1:2, out

[14:30] {Beau} nice find dp

[14:30] {Threei}  dp, you didn't fall asleep with position open, did you

[14:31] {dptl} out .81

[14:31] {dptl} ty

[14:38] {dptl} may be now hal at .30?

[14:38] {Threei}  nah

[14:39] {Threei}  rather pullback and DB

[14:44] {Threei}  like this

[14:44] {Threei}  now long on .10 break if holds 28

[14:44] {dptl} ok

[14:57] {dino} hal l .00

[15:01] {dino} out hal .14, +.14

[15:01] {Threei}  good one

[15:01] {dino} ty

[15:04] {dino} abx has me watching 39.27 gap area

[15:05] {nemo} touched the 50 day sma

[15:06] {dino} dumb question, when you say 50 day, on a 3 month chart?

[15:07] {dino} on what time chart please

[15:10] {dino} hal l .90

[15:13] {Threei}  it doesn't really matter dino

[15:13] {Threei}  however far back you are looking, 50 day ma will be in the same place anyway

[15:15] {dino} out hal .01, +.11

[15:15] {dino} just figured that out, except on monthly, weekly, daily

[15:17] {Threei}  right... if it's daily, MA is in days, if weekly - in weeksetc. In other words, MA cvounts in periods

[15:17] {dino} ok, thx

[15:18] {Threei}  and by setting chart's time frame (not to be confused with lenght) you se period

[15:19] {thomcbell} textbook channel failure on lvs 

[15:20] {thomcbell} spy still in same type of failure prone area 

[15:26] {dino} hal l .85

[15:28] {dino} stop -.06

[15:34] {dptl} abx .40? long?

[15:34] {Threei}  .35

[15:35] {dptl} with .30 stop?

[15:35] {Threei}  yes

[15:40] {dino} closing strong

[15:41] {nemo} yeah, and the Bernank tomorrow

[15:41] {dino} which shou;d kill it

[15:41] {nemo} yeah, if QE still off the table, down elevator

[15:42] {nemo} iwm just about touched 20 day

[15:42] {nemo} spy a little further

[15:46] {nemo} spy and iwm going for weekly R1

[15:46] {thomcbell} lvs really flaccid in afternoon session

[15:48] {dptl} gn

[15:48] {Threei}  is it allowed here to use words that make others go look them up?

[15:49] {Threei}  keep it on a caveman level (not a troglodite)

[15:49] {nemo} or luddite

[15:49] {Threei}  tree... water... fire

[15:49] {nemo} beer woman

[15:49] {Threei}  there

[15:50] {dptl} see ya tomorrow

[15:51] {Threei}  talke care dp

[15:51] {thomcbell} is it not flaccid?

[15:51] {thomcbell} sheldon needs some True blood

[15:54] {dino} lol

[15:54] {Threei}  lol

[15:57] {Threei}  much better day today... getting used to this clow climb mode

[15:57] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening

[15:57] {Threei}  see you tomorrow

[15:58] {thomcbell} see u tomorrow guys

[15:59] {nemo} weekly r1 on spy tagged

[16:00] {nemo} market closed right on it