Nemo's Midweek Findings

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Here it is...by the way...this is difficult to do sober...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Su3eMxYm2Vg

Forgot, here are new monthly levels:

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=8c3ef4cf-f36c-47ed-b0a0-b4f11ea171db

This link should have the layouts, obviously you'll get new weekly's this weekend

Nov 30 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership. Free trial is available)

Despite huge (well, enormous) gap up, we did find enough trades to make the day worthwhile. Amazingly, some of the room members made it a very active day, to the tune of almost 20 trades.


Session Time: Wed Nov 30 00:00:00 2011
[08:53] {Threei}  *(EU) MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS LOWER RATES ON FX SWAP LINES IN COORDINATED MOVE; to enhance capacity to provide liquidity to global financial system
[08:53] {Threei}  - Fed, ECB, BOE, SNB, BOJ, Bank of Canada participate
[08:53] {Threei}  - ECB to reduce initial margin for 3-month USD operations will be reduce to 12% from 20%.
[08:53] {Threei}  - Cut In Overnight Index Swap price is 50BPS.
[08:53] {Threei}  *(US) NOV ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: 206K V 130KE
[09:07] {dino} gm all
[09:07] {Threei}  morning dino
[09:07] {Threei}  back to sleep I guess :)
[09:07] {Threei}  nah, kidding... this might be interesting day
[09:08] {dino} beginning of the move to establish euro printing press
[09:09] {Threei}  I still don't see a mechanism for that...
[09:11] {dino} markets are saying otherwise
[09:12] {Threei}  market simply reacts on postponing of collapse and on new liquidity
[09:12] {Threei}  plus, it happens in deeply oversold ophase
[09:12] {Threei}  so short squeeze is in order
[09:13] {Threei}  I just don't see how providing liquidity solves the problem of debt and possible insolvency
[09:13] {Threei}  wins time, sure
[09:13] {Threei}  beyond that, remains to be seen
[09:14] {Threei}  I mean, if individuum A owes 1000 bucks, pays 10% intersts and earns 10 bucks a month, he is hopelssly insolvent, right?
[09:15] {Threei}  now, if you provide him with more money to borrow at 5%, it does solve his today's financing problem
[09:15] {dino} unless the currency is devalued
[09:15] {Threei}  but does it solve his insolvency problem?
[09:15] {Threei}  right... but that's what someone has to undrewrite
[09:15] {Threei}  who will?
[09:15] {Threei}  ECB can't print
[09:16] {Threei}  Germany can
[09:16] {Threei}  so the question is, will it?
[09:16] {Threei}  so far it refused
[09:16] {dino} missing my point, i think they are changing the ecb rules
[09:16] {dino} but back to work
[09:16] {Threei}  no, I see it
[09:16] {Threei}  but that changing ECB rules still has to be backed up by someone's economy
[09:17] {Threei}  ECB has no economy behind it... national banks have
[09:17] {Threei}  until and unless they unite the sovereign states in one
[09:17] {thomcbell} seems to me - the only solution is using German balance sheet - if there is a way to shore up euro-zone refuse using coordinated global money and bypass the German electorate than there is a chance
[09:18] {Threei}  right... and that's somethinbg I doubt is doable
[09:18] {thomcbell} otherwise it is just dung and can kicking
[09:18] {Threei}  eqzaktly
[09:18] {Threei}  I think I spelled it right
[09:18] {dino} yes, and i think they are working on a way around a german piblic vote
[09:19] {Threei}  the best line of yesterday evening:
[09:19] {thomcbell} could you imagine doing everything right as a country and a citizen and being asked to take on this shit from countries with 30 hour work weeks and public workers retiring at age 50
[09:19] {Threei}  now that we got rid of Dodd and Frank, can we get rid of Dodd-Frank?
[09:20] {thomcbell} lunacy
[09:20] {Threei}  it is
[09:20] {dino} agree tbell
[09:21] {thomcbell} qcom and aapl very weak yest for much of the day
[09:21] {thomcbell} if aapl shows weakness i want to be short qcom for a scalp
[09:22] {Threei}  hate big gap up days
[09:22] {Threei}  and this gaop is not big, it's enormous
[09:23] {thomcbell} 55.14 gap on qcom
[09:23] {Threei}  we did very well on Monday despite gap up, but that was rather exception
[09:24] {Threei}  3 choices:
[09:25] {Threei}  1. total stall, no one is brave enough to do anything, market sits locked in the narrow range
[09:26] {Threei}  2. those longs that were caught in the selloff of the last couple weeks sigh with relief and dump everything; new buyers are hesitant to enter this far from bottom; market sells off
[09:26] {Threei}  3. shorts scramble to cover, new longs arrive not to miss end of year rally, market continues up
[09:26] {RonS} gm...can't figure out if i am in slow burn mode or a fullout rage...
[09:26] {Threei}  at this point I have no idea whi scenario is more likely
[09:27] {Threei}  hi Ron
[09:27] {Threei}  you'll have to decide quickly
[09:27] {dino} not my kind of market
[09:27] {Threei}  so far I am tempted to short SLW
[09:27] {Threei}  but will wait a bit
[09:27] {Threei}  nor mine
[09:28] {Threei}  let's be restrained and careful
[09:28] {Threei}  sitting out unclear time is the best move
[09:28] {Threei}  setups will shape up, we will take them
[09:28] {Threei}  but let's not guess
[09:28] {Threei}  oh, and first trades are half lot
[09:29] {Threei}  where is nemo
[09:29] {Threei}  we need those pivots
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break if stays under .65
[09:31] {Threei}  target about 40 - 50 cents
[09:32] {thomcbell} aaol sold right into
[09:32] {thomcbell} aapl
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:34] {Threei}  stop above 39
[09:34] {Threei}  1:1
[09:34] {Threei}  target 1:3, with partials and trailing
[09:35] {Threei}  SLW, change trigger to .60 break
[09:35] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[09:36] {Threei}  see huge bid at .60
[09:36] {Threei}  if it gets eaten, we want to be short
[09:37] {dino} fcx target?
[09:37] {Threei}  09:34] {Threei} target 1:3, with partials and trailing
[09:37] {dino} ty
[09:38] {Threei}  standard procedure, partial at 1:12 and trail to b/e
[09:38] {Threei}  at 1:1
[09:38] {Threei}  SLW change to .70 break
[09:39] {thomcbell} qcom
[09:39] {thomcbell} was a tough entyry
[09:40] {Threei}  at some point it will snap, and that big bid chasing it swill be our indicator
[09:41] {swill} punny
[09:41] {Threei}  did it just cancel? not seeing it anymore
[09:41] {dino} cov fcx .67, +.12
[09:42] {Threei}  yeah, scalpers win on FCX
[09:42] {dino} leaving large gaps below
[09:42] {patience} good morning
[09:43] {dino} they usually fill at some point
[09:43] {Threei}  morning patience
[09:44] {RonS} chi pmi
[09:44] {Threei}  so far first scenario plays out
[09:44] {Threei}  stall near the high
[09:45] {Threei}  *(US) NOV CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGERS: 62.6 V 58.5E
[09:50] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  33 break
[09:50] {Threei}  target 1:4
[09:51] {Threei}  1:1
[09:51] {Threei}  half out .87
[09:52] {Threei}  stop to .01
[09:52] {dino} fcx s .99
[09:52] {Threei}  1:2
[09:52] {RonS} took .98 to .82  thanks 3i
[09:52] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:52] {Threei}  :)
[09:53] {Threei}  stop to .95
[09:53] {Threei}  1:3
[09:54] {dino} cov slw .66, +.33 ty vad
[09:54] {Threei}  welcome sir
[09:54] {Threei}  was waiting for this one on the tree, nemo style
[09:54] {dino} good call
[09:54] {Threei}  ty
[09:55] {Threei}  if holding last piece, stop at .85
[09:55] {Threei}  .81 now
[09:56] {Threei}  .75 now
[09:57] {Threei}  1:4 target almost hit, my a$$ is out
[09:57] {Threei}  last couple cents don't matter much
[09:58] {RonS} amzn going on my shrt watch...this thing is ugly considering
[09:58] {Threei}  yikes
[09:59] {Threei}  all uglies in the world are insulted... they are not THAT ugly
[09:59] {dino} cov fcx .88, +.11
[09:59] {RonS} gj
[09:59] {dino} ty
[09:59] {Threei}  nice
[10:00] {dino} pins and needles
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) OCT PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 10.4% V 2.0%E; Y/Y: 7.3% V 7.9% PRIOR
[10:01] {Threei}  economic data coming today looks like happy days are back
[10:08] {dino} 123.61 vwap
[10:11] {thomcbell} klac short vad?  44.99
[10:12] {Threei}  half lot...
[10:12] {Threei}  not very confident on this one
[10:12] {thomcbell} k this thing has gotten so thin
[10:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .40 break half lot
[10:13] {Threei}  if staus above .30
[10:14] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:14] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .45 break half lot
[10:14] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[10:15] {Threei}  no go
[10:16] {thomcbell} dino - BIG bounced right off yest high area - if it goes back down to 39.70 it looks like your kind of entry
[10:16] {dino} thx
[10:17] {thomcbell} fcx fairly nasty
[10:18] {thomcbell} slw 32.48 break?
[10:20] {Threei}  .50
[10:21] {cipher} l fcx.57
[10:21] {Threei}  what's with those odd nymbers :)
[10:21] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[10:22] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[10:22] {Threei}  full lot this time
[10:22] {cipher} out .70 +.13
[10:22] {RonS} gj
[10:23] {Threei}  nice scalping footwork
[10:23] {dino} gj
[10:25] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:44] {RonS} wow, high of 23 here tomorrow w/ 3-5 inches snow...freakin canuckians
[10:44] {RonS} :)
[10:45] {Threei}  sorry
[10:46] {Threei}  Obama: Strongly Approve: 19%... Strongly Disapprove: 43%... Approval Index: -24
[10:46] {Threei}  that's testing all time low
[10:46] {RonS} new low?
[10:46] {Threei}  breakdown or bounce?
[10:48] {dino}  break down hopefully, need him out of there
[10:48] {Threei}  I for one don't understand the arguing about who would be better as the next president
[10:49] {Threei}  it just doesn't matter
[10:49] {Threei}  anyone will, put up the one who has better chance to win
[10:49] {dino} exactly
[10:49] {Threei}  this guy is so toxic to the economy, I'll take literally anyone
[10:50] {Threei}  but hey, who can dimiss a good show... country argues about number of women Cain groped or Gingrich views on illegals
[10:50] {Threei}  who the hell cares
[10:51] {Threei}  fix frikin economy, then we will talk about Cain's hotel preferences
[10:52] {dino} thats your liberal news, keep it away from what matters
[10:54] {Threei}  good news for cholesterol-plagued: lipitor goes generic today
[10:54] {Threei}  but I have even better: bacon is generic for a long time already
[10:56] {Threei}  hmmm... I am not sure I underatnd this:
[10:56] {Threei}  (EU) Canada Fin Min Flaherty: Canada will make no adjustments to its policies until the EU provides more resources to help deal with its crisis
[10:56] {Threei}  wasn't BoC one of participants of this morning announcement?
[10:57] {dino} seems they already did adjust
[10:57] {Threei}  - Fed, ECB, BOE, SNB, BOJ, Bank of Canada participate
[10:57] {dino} yes
[10:57] {Threei}  do they mean "beyond this"?
[10:57] {dino} suppose
[10:58] {RonS} ...give him a call...
[10:58] {RonS} :)
[10:58] {Threei}  (EU) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Meeting on Dec 9th will be a decisive moment for Europe, confirms that Ecofin has agreed to coordinated national guarantees for banks
[10:58] {Threei}  - IMF could offer weakened euro zone nations bilateral loans, notes that IMF credits are not linked to any central bank.
[10:58] {Threei}  - Germany is ready to discuss the use of IMF SDRs to widen the IMF's potential scope of activity.
[10:58] {Threei}  - Germany is also ready to release more resources to the IMF.
[10:58] {Threei}  - Not aware of any talks between Italy and the IMF.
[10:58] {Threei}  - Confident that Italy PM Monti will disclose reforms next week.
[10:58] {Threei}  - Any solution that removed pressure on euro zone nations to reform would be damaging.
[10:59] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:59] {Threei}  I'd say this morning's solution does exactly that
[11:00] {Threei}  DELL Exec: Want to focus on the most profitable product lines, mid-tier and higher end products
[11:01] {Threei}  ahha... that's why they sold me 23" monitor for $130 this last friday... got it
[11:02] {thomcbell} ups 70.86 long
[11:02] {thomcbell} 1/2 lot
[11:02] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Lacker is said to have dissented in Fed decision on coordinated swaps - financial press
[11:02] {Threei}  I would be interested to hear his reasons
[11:04] {thomcbell} bloomberg radiuo just said the same thing Vad
[11:04] {Threei}  just stating fact, not citing his reasoning?
[11:05] {thomcbell} yy
[11:05] {Threei}  k... I am honestly interested
[11:09] {Threei}  isn't it amazing hiow market stays locked for so long afer these huge gaps?
[11:09] {dino} just thinking that
[11:10] {Threei}  one would think such a move should provoke flurry of activity
[11:10] {Threei}  one would be wrong....
[11:10] {Threei}  gaps down usually do
[11:10] {Threei}  gaps up often end with these paralysis
[11:12] {dino} used to be easy shorting on big gap ups, used to give you 100+ pts back
[11:26] {dino}  apkt drop
[11:27] {dino} chk s .75
[11:33] {RonS} classic:  But remember - all portfolios must be Marked-to-Merkel by days end
[11:34] {Threei}  lol
[11:35] {RonS} educated, eh? O called the british embassy, the "english embassy"
[11:36] {Threei}  nitpicking much? say thanks it wasn't canadian one or he could call it french
[11:39] {RonS} nitpick?  doubt even today a welshman or scot would want to be called english...
[11:39] {RonS} :)
[11:39] {Threei}  lol
[11:41] {dino} a greek, italian, and spaniard are drinking in a pub. who pays the tab?
[11:41] {thomcbell} ups 2:1
[11:41] {thomcbell} sold 1/2
[11:42] {dino} gj
[11:42] {Threei}  GS CEO may be deposed in Gupta case - financial press
[11:42] {dino} answer; the germans
[11:42] {Threei}  german diono?
[11:42] {Threei}  lol
[11:42] {thomcbell} big we didnt get our chance Dino
[11:43] {Threei}  ok, here comes my prooof that today's step won't accomplish anything:
[11:43] {Threei}  (EU) US Treasury Sec Geithner: Central bank actions taken today will help the global economy and ease some of the pressure on Europe
[11:44] {thomcbell} ups 3:1 out
[11:44] {Threei}  nice
[11:44] {Threei}  wtg
[11:45] {dino} gj
[11:45] {thomcbell} thank you Vad
[11:45] {thomcbell} ;)
[11:48] {dino} chk stop -.12
[11:48] {thomcbell} slw tempting 33.01
[12:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break half lot
[12:02] {Threei}  stop under .50, target 30.20
[12:03] {Threei}  if you insist on scalping, then keep stop under .60 and ignore my comments
[12:07] {thomcbell} if u forgot - KLA Tencor will also will be providing liquidity support to the EFSF
[12:07] {Threei}  eeck
[12:08] {Threei}  scalpers got their 1;1
[12:15] {Threei}  wow
[12:15] {Threei}  National Poll: Gingrich 45% Obama 43%
[12:15] {Threei}  that's a first
[12:15] {Threei}  up to this moment Obama beat handily everyone but Generic Republican and sometimes Romney
[12:19] {Threei}  ok SPY
[12:20] {Threei}  time to lose 124 and die
[12:29] {dino} chk rinsed
[12:37] {Threei}  all the money we made otday, make sure to frame it and put on yoyur wall
[12:37] {Threei}  I seriously doubt many made any today
[12:37] {dino} ston drop
[12:38] {Threei}  this is the day when overextended shorts get killed, shaken out longs curse and those who stayed on a sideline damn their indecisiveness
[12:38] {Threei}  did I miss anyone?
[12:39] {dino} ston sm l .70
[12:39] {cipher} ston l .58
[12:39] {RonS} jesus wants to get back on the cross?
[12:40] {Threei}  lol
[12:40] {Threei}  this I did miss
[12:41] {Threei}  here comes party pooper:
[12:41] {Threei}  (GR) Moody's issues commentary on Greece banking sector; outlook remains negativ
[12:41] {Threei}  e- Outlook remains negative, due to the banks' stressed operating conditions stemming from a deepening recession and the ongoing Greek government debt crisis. The banking sector's solvency, funding and financial performance will remain under acute pressure
[12:41] {Threei}  (US) Goldman Sachs analysts recommend shorting 10 year bund; long EUR/CHF with 1.35 target (timing uncertain)- Short European high yield debt - Calls on longing Canada equities vs Japan equities - Long position on July Brent
[12:42] {Threei}  what the deuce with STON, no news
[12:42] {cipher} out ston .90 +.32 thx dino
[12:42] {Threei}  well played guys
[12:42] {dino} gj, nice entry
[12:42] {cipher} thx
[12:43] {RonS} omg, ston drops like ston, and now i see they own funeral homes....and presented a BofA conference
[12:46] {dino} vmed drop
[12:47] {Threei}  (US) Goldman Chief Economist Hatzius: Forecast is for Fed to launch QE3 in 1H of 2012
[12:48] {Threei}  pox on both your houses
[12:48] {dino} out ston .14, +.44
[12:48] {RonS} gj
[12:48] {Threei}  wtg
[12:48] {cipher} nice
[12:49] {dino} ty
[12:50] {dino} dropping again
[12:54] {dino} hl l .75
[12:55] {dino} out .94
[13:01] {dino} sm l .10
[13:03] {thomcbell} slw angry buyers back?
[13:04] {Threei}  yeah
[13:04] {Threei}  not chasing it
[13:04] {thomcbell} si
[13:08] {Threei}  SPY intraday looks like steamroller went oer it
[13:09] {RonS} ha, sports guys here predicitng that stoopid nfl fans will vote tebow to pro bowl...too funny
[13:09] {dino} out ston flat
[13:11] {dino} ston sm l .62
[13:13] {dino} out .00
[13:13] {dino} +.38
[13:13] {cipher} wtg
[13:13] {dino} ty
[13:13] {cipher} you had like 2 milliseconds to get out
[13:13] {dino} was laying out
[13:13] {cipher} before it dropped
[13:13] {dino} pulp type have to
[13:14] {cipher} i hear you
[13:14] {dino} breaking down imo
[13:14] {dino} wow
[13:15] {dino} wpi drop
[13:15] {RonS} guess ston being buried?
[13:16] {cipher} +.40 wpi thx
[13:17] {dino} wow gj
[13:17] {dino} 63.55 gap
[13:17] {cipher} took 3 seconds in/out
[13:19] {Threei}  (GE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: Must stabilize the Euro and show the market some results; decisions to strengthen the EFSF in the last few days were important- Calls on decisions to be finalized with regards to recapitalizing banks
[13:19] {dino} wpi sm l.25
[13:20] {dino} out .69, +.44
[13:22] {dino} ston sm l .60
[13:23] {dino} lnkd spike
[13:31] {dino} out ston .91, +.31
[13:32] {dino} getting spready, drop coming imo
[13:34] {dino} wpi drop
[13:38] {dino} ston tightens
[13:38] {dino} sm l .85
[13:40] {Threei}  guys, who is looking for a nice Christmas gift and got some speare pocket change, you can drop by to Victoria to pick up this:
[13:40] {Threei}  http://www.timescolonist.com/sale+Victoria+Mayfair+Mall+ultimate+Christmas+gift/5786491/story.html
[13:41] {RonS} geez...only ese could afford that...
[13:41] {dino} out ston ave .17, +.32
[13:42] {Threei}  nah, couple more STON scalps and dino will be too
[13:42] {dino} nothing else moving, so...
[13:43] {dino} wpi all over the place
[13:43] {swill} back in an hour
[13:43] {Threei}  SPY looks ready
[13:49] {Threei}  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-30/obama-invokes-cold-war-security-powers-to-unmask-chinese-telecom-spyware.html
[13:49] {dino} wpi sm l .35
[13:50] {Threei}  ok... let's do it SPY
[13:56] {dino} out wpi .20 -.15
[13:59] {Threei}  there is a beige book coming out
[13:59] {Threei}  I doubt I need to post it
[14:00] {Threei}  slow to moderate... remained weak... etc etc
[14:00] {RonS} apkt lod
[14:06] {Threei}  unbelievable
[14:06] {Threei}  still locked
[14:06] {Threei}  for hours
[14:19] {Threei}  seriously... who remembers this happening on recent memory?
[14:21] {Threei}  everyone blacked out?
[14:23] {dino} huh? lol
[14:24] {Threei}  welcome back dino :)
[14:24] {Threei}  just breathe
[14:24] {dino} so bored i ran vacuum
[14:24] {Threei}  and help me bring the rest back... slap the one on the left
[14:24] {dino} slap to the left
[14:24] {Threei}  hehe
[14:25] {dino} ston drops again
[14:25] {Threei}  good thing nemo is not here... he would start slapping with 2x4
[14:26] {RonS} ya, now that ows being shut down, looking forward to his return
[14:26] {dino} apkt gap filled
[14:26] {dino} lol ron
[14:27] {dino} apkt sm l .25
[14:28] {RonS} ...figure he has a penchant for smelly hippie chicks...
[14:28] {RonS} :D
[14:28] {dino} lol
[14:32] {dino} apkt to flat
[14:32] {_optionman} l
[14:32] {dino} 2
[14:33] {patience} 3
[14:33] {dino} -- dino is here
[14:33] {Threei}  great... that's how you can brought to life
[14:33] {dino} out apkt .55, +.30 ty ron
[14:34] {patience} watching mbi options
[14:34] {Threei}  not by some sensible musings, but by punching random keys
[14:34] {dino} unusual, for a huge gap up day, i am finding stuff
[14:34] {Threei}  after morning plays I got nothing
[14:34] {patience} strong day for me, i'm in slw and hgu
[14:34] {dino} well to be fair, most were capit trades
[14:37] {dino} fio drop
[14:39] {dino} sm l .16
[14:44] {dino} stop is .98 brb
[14:46] {swill} back
[14:49] {Threei}  SLW got smacked a bit
[14:51] {dino} wpi sm l .02
[14:53] {dino} stop wpi -.18
[14:56] {dino} wow wpi
[14:56] {dino} not liking fio stop .02 -.14
[14:57] {dino} wpi gap 63.50s
[14:58] {dino} damn missed it
[15:02] {RonS} Icahn: To Propose That WebMD Repurchase Up To $1B In Shares WBMD       11/30 01:02 PM
[15:03] {RonS} $WBMD Icahn Does Not Support Sale to Private Equity
[15:04] {dino} sm s wbmd .90
[15:04] {RonS} sm s wbmd .92
[15:06] {RonS} out -.20
[15:07] {dino} stop .14
[15:07] {dino} -.24
[15:08] {RonS} $WBMD Icahn not aware of sale to private equity. Urges dutch tender offer w/ high end at $36
[15:11] {Threei}  rofl
[15:11] {Threei}  look at this
[15:11] {Threei}  (EU) Finland EU Min Stubb: EU may ask for Japan's assistance in helping to restore fiscal stability in Europe - Nikkei News
[15:12] {Threei}  Japan??
[15:12] {Threei}  (US) Republicans put forth proposal to offset payroll tax cut; recommends extension of pay freeze on federal salaries; recommends cuts to jobless benefits, food stamps, and medicare
[15:14] {RonS} 3i...your buddy...http://tinyurl.com/73kvp7j
[15:15] {Threei}  not exactly... but I do agree on this
[15:15] {RonS} yes and i agree w/ you re his foreign policy ideas...
[15:16] {RonS} dangerous and irresponsible...
[15:17] {RonS} after icahn burned everyone on clx, cannot believe they are buying this wbmd...
[15:17] {dino} wpi drops again
[15:19] {RonS} ...painting a foogly daily bar...
[15:23] {dino} fio sm l .75
[15:24] {dino} wpi sm l .18
[15:26] {patience} pot.to is going to go red...hmmm why, last day of the month?
[15:29] {thomcbell} what a day fio has had
[15:31] {dino} out wpi .62, +.44
[15:31] {Threei}  wtg
[15:31] {dino} thx
[15:31] {Threei}  having great day
[15:33] {dino} pretty good
[15:33] {dino} 13/18
[15:34] {Threei}  sheesh
[15:34] {Threei}  very active
[15:34] {dino} lots of $100 hits
[15:35] {dino} you know, walking down the street theory
[15:35] {Threei}  yup :)
[15:35] {dino} i see $100 on sidewalk, i pick it up
[15:36] {dino} sort of like tombstone, "i see a red sash i kill it"
[15:37] {Threei}  +426 DJI
[15:37] {Threei}  4.40 SPY
[15:38] {Threei}  can't wait for the day when gravity returns
[15:38] {Threei}  that's going to be a lot of fun
[15:38] {patience} ok, look at finviz home page...these charts make me think of month end markup - government style
[15:38] {dino} lots of gaps above and below, my guess is 90% of them get filled
[15:39] {Threei}  considering the reason for the gap, it is in a way goverment markup, lol
[15:39] {patience} my brothers comment to me a few minutes ago
[15:40] {dino} out fio .30, +.55\
[15:40] {patience} tsx.. is getting goosed
[15:40] {dino} and no more trades for me today, i'm beat
[15:41] {thomcbell} holy fire hose
[15:41] {patience} no kidding
[15:46] {dino} wpi drops again
[15:46] {dino} 1.00 range
[15:46] {patience} intc making higher high on monthly basis
[15:47] {patience} why?
[15:47] {patience} do they have good dividends?
[15:49] {thomcbell} yes yield over 2% i believe
[15:49] {dino} 3.7% intc
[15:49] {patience} i don't have yearly charts
[15:49] {patience} but brother says it is breaking decade chart
[15:50] {dino} .84 =3.7% intc, yahoo
[15:50] {dino} no, 52 week high 25.50
[15:51] {dino} 5 yr 26.08
[15:51] {patience} ty
[15:51] {dino} 32.05 in '04
[15:51] {patience} my monthly charts only go back so far.....not quite ready to pay for the service   :)
[15:52] {dino} /finance.yahoo.com it is free
[15:52] {patience} ty dino
[15:53] {dino} np
[15:55] {dino} juicing the close
[15:55] {patience} worth watching its behaviour
[15:55] {patience} totally
[15:58] {dino} +7% dji since fri
[15:59] {Threei}  what a march
[15:59] {dino} ndx, s/p too
[15:59] {Threei}  stunning end of day
[15:59] {patience} must be women shopping
[15:59] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
[15:59] {patience} ty vad
[15:59] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[16:00] {patience} jeez louise, POT.to jumped +.77
[16:03] {dino} gn all, thx

Nov 29 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership. Free trial is available)

Narrow and hectic day with no direction; flat day for us. Morning started with 3 stops in a row; then we were able to fix it and get a little bit in the black; then returned to flat and stayed there till the bell. Oh well.


Session Time: Tue Nov 29 00:00:00 2011
[08:59] {Threei}  The ECB this morning failed to attract enough deposits from banks to fully sterilize its market-stabilizing bond purchases. -HFE
[08:59] {Threei}  Italy 7.3%, Spain 6.45%, Belgium 5.4%.
[08:59] {Threei}  Ireland 9.2%, Portugal 12.9%, Greece 28.2%
[09:06] {patience} good morning
[09:06] {RonS} gm....file this in the something you will never hear about file:  http://tinyurl.com/cdbumea
[09:07] {Threei}  good morning
[09:07] {Threei}  huh?
[09:08] {Threei}  let me read it second time
[09:09] {dino} vad dcc
[09:11] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:11] {Threei}  dino, we did unthinkable yesterday
[09:11] {Threei}  no, didn't finish off Euro... the other unthinkable
[09:12] {Threei}  profited on the big gap up day
[09:13] {dino} gj
[09:15] {Threei}  so Ron... did I get it right, if we cover whole planet with asphalt we will prevent global warming? {GGG}
[09:15] {swill} Good morning
[09:15] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:16] {Threei}  one comment under article:
[09:17] {Threei}  In a few years they�ll be announcing that Western excesses are depleting CO2 from the atmosphere which will cool the earth over the long term, ushering in a new ice age. It goes without saying that the only way to prevent this will be funneling tax money to political cronies.
[09:17] {Threei}  didn't we go through this already... global cooling, which was there before warming
[09:17] {RonS} yes...'60's Club of Rome report...
[09:17] {Threei}  why don't they say "ah just pay more taxes t prevent something, and don't make us make the theory up to justify that"
[09:20] {Threei}  quick update
[09:21] {Threei}  main course so to speak is about 2/3 done: open break, breakout and breakdown are fully finished,
[09:21] {Threei}  reversal is next
[09:21] {Threei}  should take about 7-10 days
[09:21] {Threei}  at which point I will need to decide to make a video part and release the wqhole thing,
[09:22] {Threei}  or release main part and add video in a couple weeks
[09:22] {swill} I'm excited
[09:22] {Threei}  will probably start making video to get a sense of how quick it can be done, then decide
[09:23] {Threei}  it comes out better than I even envisioned it swill
[09:23] {Threei}  as I write it, new ideas pop up, and make it richer
[09:23] {swill} wow
[09:24] {Threei}  just need to resist temptation to add too much theory to it, lol
[09:26] {ese} morning
[09:26] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:28] {Threei}  so, to sum up overnight events:
[09:28] {Threei}  Italy auction sold well, but the rate hit new high, and ECB couldn't sterilize the purchases aferwards
[09:28] {Threei}  what does it tell you?
[09:29] {RonS} that i don't know what sterilize means?
[09:29] {Threei}  oh
[09:29] {Threei}  central bank that isn't supposed to be a holder of certain assets, may buy them as "bridge the gap" measure,
[09:30] {Threei}  to sell to those who are asup;posed to be holders of it,
[09:30] {RonS} inhx
[09:30] {dino} printing press
[09:30] {Threei}  such sell streilizes the purchase, taking the assets of central bank sheet
[09:30] {Threei}  if they can't streilize it, it remains on their sheet
[09:31] {Threei}  which is not good
[09:32] {Threei}  looking for short into bounce
[09:32] {Threei}  SLW between .40 - .50, and FCX above .20
[09:34] {Threei}  while we wait, to finish the premarket question: it tells us that that "success" of auction was nothing more than ECB trying to soak up supply; absence of real demand is illustrated by the fact that they couldn't sterilize it afterwards
[09:34] {Threei}  no decent bounces so far
[09:35] {dino} if you don't sterilize, it is defactor increase in supply, inflate
[09:35] {Threei}  if you can print that is...
[09:35] {Threei}  but ECB can't
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:36] {Threei}  half lot
[09:36] {dino} watch what they do, not what they say
[09:37] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .10 break
[09:38] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[09:38] {Threei}  FCX is valid again
[09:38] {Threei}  stop for scalpers .91, day traders .96
[09:39] {Threei}  SLW, .10 invalidated, looking for original setup
[09:39] {Threei}  between .20 and .30
[09:40] {Threei}  not sure yet
[09:40] {thomcbell} lvs has fight
[09:41] {thomcbell} as does qcom
[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  QCOM  .10 break
[09:43] {dino} dds sm l .75
[09:43] {thomcbell} ups strong
[09:43] {Threei}  stop under 54
[09:44] {thomcbell} wow ups
[09:45] {Threei}  QCOM is a nervous trader
[09:47] {thomcbell} crude strong
[09:48] {Threei}  FCX no worky
[09:48] {Threei}  nor QCOM
[09:49] {thomcbell} no
[09:49] {Threei}  the pnly thing that more or less shows direction is SLW
[09:50] {Threei}  let's see if it gives us pullback for long
[09:50] {thomcbell} yes angry slw buyers back
[09:50] {Threei}  but the way it trades, entry should be under .50
[09:51] {thomcbell} everything very thin - obviously
[09:51] {Threei}  US 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD FALLS BELOW GERMAN BUND YIELD FIRST TIME SINCE MAY '09
[09:52] {thomcbell} fcx getting frisky too
[09:55] {Threei}  no pullback so far SLW
[09:55] {Threei}  SPY weakens
[09:55] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .70 break
[09:55] {Threei}  if stays under .80 of course
[09:55] {Threei}  taregt 1:3
[09:56] {dino} out qcom .31, +.20, thx for idea
[09:56] {Threei}  nice... didn't let them shake you out?
[09:56] {dino} nope, was at .97
[09:58] {Threei}  every trade is teeth pulling so far... total opposite of yesterday
[09:58] {Threei}  I think it's nemo's fault
[10:00] {ese} definitely
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 56.0 V 44.0E
[10:00] {Threei}  yikes
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: +0.9% V -0.1%E
[10:01] {Threei}  double wammy
[10:02] {dino} wow
[10:06] {thomcbell} no lvs and wynn weak
[10:06] {thomcbell} now
[10:07] {Threei}  no pattern to these waves
[10:07] {dino} dds stop -.26
[10:10] {Threei}  what's with these bouts of buying and selling out of nowhere
[10:10] {thomcbell} fdx
[10:11] {thomcbell} just exploded
[10:11] {thomcbell} nice opening range breakout there
[10:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  34 break half lot
[10:14] {Threei}  if stays above .85
[10:14] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .90 break half lot
[10:16] {Threei}  little cangaroo tail
[10:16] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:19] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[10:20] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[10:20] {Threei}  weaker thah SPY
[10:20] {Threei}  first candidate to try for reversal
[10:21] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:21] {dino} ayi spike
[10:22] {Threei}  if SLW works, normal patterns start returning
[10:22] {Threei}  if not, then I am havuing one of those days
[10:22] {Threei}  you know... when you can't trade your way out of wet paper bag
[10:23] {swill} I got a scalp
[10:23] {Threei}  can't blame you
[10:23] {Threei}  but I will press for a trade as planned
[10:24] {Threei}  SLW is temptingly weak vs market
[10:25] {Threei}  1:1
[10:25] {Threei}  half out, stop to .81
[10:25] {dino} ayicov slw .72, +.07
[10:27] {thomcbell} i fmarket weakens - LVS short
[10:29] {dino} lnkd drop
[10:29] {dino} slxp spike
[10:29] {Threei}  1:2
[10:29] {Threei}  1/4 out, stop to .71
[10:30] {Threei}  no thinking, autopilot
[10:30] {dino} ayi sm s .09 bstop .26
[10:32] {cipher} +.36 lnkd thx dino
[10:32] {Threei}  1:3
[10:32] {Threei}  out
[10:32] {Threei}  +.28
[10:33] {swill} wtg
[10:33] {Threei}  day is not fully fixed yet but very close to breakeven
[10:33] {Threei}  and ego is not as bruised by wet paper bag
[10:33] {RonS} dds sm l .08
[10:33] {Threei}  I mean come on... if it were plastic, fine... but wet paper?
[10:35] {dino} cov ayi .76, +.33
[10:35] {Threei}  wtg
[10:36] {dino} ty
[10:36] {Threei}  nice on LNKD cipher... sorry, was submerged in SLW management at the time
[10:36] {dino} np and gj cipher
[10:37] {thomcbell} good slw vad
[10:37] {thomcbell} perfect trade for a day like this
[10:38] {Threei}  ty
[10:38] {Threei}  needed that top wrk, to restore my faith in humanity
[10:39] {Threei}  just don't tell nemo I have faith in it, he will stop talking to me for a week
[10:39] {thomcbell} very good
[10:40] {swill} unfortunatly will miss the fun.  need to go driving
[10:40] {Threei}  that's OK{ markert will still be there when you are back
[10:41] {Threei}  not sure about EU though
[10:41] {Threei}  or BAC
[10:41] {Threei}  or GRPN
[10:41] {Threei}  or my typing skills
[10:41] {swill} lol
[10:41] {Threei}  wait, that's gone long ago
[10:54] {Threei}  look at SLW
[10:55] {Threei}  what a disproprtional move
[10:55] {Threei}  shows the right indentification of the short candidate
[11:03] {thomcbell} fcx 36.30 break Vad
[11:04] {Threei}  .35
[11:05] {Threei}  with .45 resistance
[11:06] {thomcbell} oh lvs
[11:07] {Threei}  .90 eas it on LVS
[11:07] {Threei}  was
[11:07] {thomcbell} slw disgusting
[11:07] {Threei}  missed it
[11:07] {Threei}  FCX works
[11:07] {Threei}  1:1
[11:07] {Threei}  back in black
[11:08] {Threei}  not much but hey.. better than pke in the eye
[11:08] {Threei}  in a form of three stops in the morning'
[11:08] {dino}  cov fcx .23, +.11 ty vad
[11:09] {Threei}  sharing credits with tbell
[11:13] {thomcbell} slw on long radar vad or is it refuse?
[11:14] {Threei}  hard to tell
[11:15] {Threei}  chart forms reversal,
[11:15] {Threei}  but its general wekaness is a concern
[11:19] {Threei}  FCX is better reversal candidate, IMO
[11:19] {Threei}  let's see if it dives to .40
[11:19] {Threei}  should be a long there
[11:19] {Threei}  for move to about .60
[11:21] {Threei}  compare charts FCX and SLW
[11:21] {Threei}  see how exaggerated SLW drop is vs FCX?
[11:21] {Threei}  over last 5 min I measn
[11:29] {Threei}  .42-.43 was the best FCX could do on a pullback
[11:30] {Threei}  tough to cath an entry... but look how the idea worked
[11:34] {thomcbell} slw 32.10 entry
[11:34] {thomcbell} long
[11:34] {thomcbell} target 2:1
[11:35] {Threei}  chart is right
[11:35] {dino} gj
[11:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break
[11:42] {Threei}  don't like the SPY look
[11:44] {Threei}  Herman Cain tells senior staff that he is reassessing whether to remain in presidential race
[11:44] {Threei}  what to assess, you are done
[11:48] {Threei}  scratching FCX
[11:48] {Threei}  out -.04
[11:49] {Threei}  may work, may not - I lost a read on it
[11:49] {RonS} heh, better warn ese:  http://tinyurl.com/c32awd8
[11:52] {Threei}  good idea on FCX exit
[11:52] {Threei}  btw Ron
[11:53] {Threei}  you are still in waiting mode on that tablet?
[11:53] {RonS} yes...want version 10
[11:53] {Threei}  10?
[11:53] {Threei}  what's that? :)
[11:54] {Threei}  just wanted to give you an update... on one side, Transformer Prime is being released in a week or so,
[11:54] {Threei}  on another, Acer and Lenovo announced tablets based on this newest Nvidia processor in Q1,
[11:54] {Threei}  which means price war is likely to start
[11:55] {Threei}  so... if you are not in a rush, probably makes sense to give it couple months
[12:12] {thomcbell} no setup but qcom on short radar hree
[12:14] {ese} no....ese is still here.....he just has no life this year ....outta here cya all tomorrow
[12:14] {Threei}  take care ese
[12:15] {ese} cya
[12:22] {thomcbell} shorted qcom 53.60 half lot
[12:26] {dino}   dds sm l .40
[12:30] {thomcbell} covering qcom
[12:30] {thomcbell} essentially flat
[12:30] {Threei}  yeah, tough one
[12:30] {thomcbell} too much of a coin flip
[12:30] {Threei}  .60 break occurred with no consolidation
[12:31] {Threei}  not liking this kind
[12:31] {thomcbell} right i was aware that was why half lot
[12:31] {thomcbell} thanks for pointing it out
[12:34] {dino} dds stop -.15
[12:39] {RonS} lol...Forget the Presidency, I'm running for Herman Cain!
[12:40] {dino} rinsed dds
[12:44] {thomcbell} duh qcom
[12:45] {thomcbell} BIG very strong during this market pullback
[12:46] {Threei}  I'd go for .95 break
[12:56] {thomcbell} im waiting but watching it closely
[12:57] {Threei}  SPY feels like ready for upward move
[12:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break
[12:58] {thomcbell} bought BIG herre
[12:58] {Threei}  beat ya by coupla cents
[12:58] {Threei}  in from .96
[13:00] {cipher} me too .96 :)
[13:00] {Threei}  so far behaves well
[13:01] {Threei}  not so sure about FCX
[13:01] {thomcbell} fcx tradeing well though
[13:05] {Threei}  out FCX
[13:07] {Threei}  BIG 1:1
[13:07] {Threei}  wow
[13:07] {Threei}  did it wait for me to say that?
[13:08] {thomcbell} i was just about to say we have to put this one on the buy list for tomorrow
[13:08] {thomcbell} wow slw looks very shaky here
[13:22] {dino}  bsft sm l .05
[13:22] {cipher} l ibm .31
[13:25] {cipher} out +.25 partial
[13:26] {Threei}  nice
[13:26] {dino} gj
[13:31] {cipher} stopped +.14 on the rest
[13:40] {dino} out bsft .30 ave, +.25
[13:43] {Threei}  lol, where do you guys find these plays
[13:44] {Threei}  when market is paralyzed like this I got nothing
[13:52] {Threei}  hmm
[13:52] {Threei}  no news
[13:53] {Threei}  (US) PIMCO's Bill Gross December Monthly Outlook: Family Feud
[13:53] {Threei}  - Investors should recognize that Eurolands problems are global and secular in nature; it will be years before Euroland and developed nations in total can constructively escape from their straitjacket of debt.
[13:53] {Threei}  - Global growth will likely remain stunted, interest rates artificially low and investors continually disenchanted with returns that fail to match expectations.
[13:53] {Threei}  - Investors should consider risk assets in emerging economies, such as Brazil and Asia, and bonds in the strongest developed economies, where the steep yield curve may offer opportunities for capital gains and potentially higher total returns.
[13:55] {dino} pivot 119.58
[14:14] {Threei}  EU document on EFSF is out'
[14:14] {Threei}  let me sort through it, just a few sec
[14:15] {Threei}  (EU) EFSF to set up more than one fund; May be leveraged at 2-3 times (in line with ests by Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden reported earlier today); guarantee losses of 20-30% - financial press
[14:15] {Threei}  - Final document to be unveiled later tonight.
[14:15] {Threei}  - NOTE: Also earlier today:
[14:15] {Threei}  - France Fin Min Baroin: Still trying to get the EFSF leverage to reach �1.0T - ecofin meeting
[14:15] {Threei}  - Spain Fin Min: the EFSF program maximum has yet to be determined, should make EFSF as large as possible.
[14:15] {Threei}  - Belgium Fin Min Reynders: EFSF capacity needs to be increased; will discuss possibility of ECB lending to IMF but the final decision will be with the ECB.
[14:15] {Threei}  Nov 27th:
[14:15] {Threei}  - (EU) New rules draft for the EFSF; Will allow for intervention on the primary and secondary bond markets and will offer partial protection of as much as 30% to investors - financial press
[14:15] {Threei}  - EFSF to keep a buffer of �10B "to provide EFSF with the necessary flexibility to carry out the new funding requirements through the issuance of short-term instruments".
[14:15] {Threei}  - Partial protection to those buying a country's bond in around 20-30% of the bond's principal amount.
[14:16] {Threei}  market isn't terribly impressed
[14:23] {Threei}  you know the worst thing about GRPN?
[14:23] {Threei}  it's that we can't shirt it
[14:23] {Threei}  short
[14:29] {dino}  y
[14:43] {dino}    wbmd spike
[14:44] {dino} sm s .12
[14:45] {dino} stop
[14:46] {RonS} $WBMD exploring sales process .....
[14:46] {dino} thx
[14:46] {RonS} street.com
[14:46] {Threei}  hired CS as advisor
[14:46] {Threei}  nt confirmed
[14:46] {Threei}  "chatter"
[14:49] {Threei}  Fitch warns of U.S. downgrade if no budget deal in 2013
[14:56] {Threei}  Paulson letter to clients, apologizing for fund performance
[14:56] {Threei}  worst year in history
[14:56] {Threei}  they understimated thre depth of EU crisis
[14:57] {Threei}  maybe membership in RT room could have helped with that
[14:57] {dino} lol
[14:58] {Threei}  really, amazes me
[14:58] {Threei}  so many pundits thought it was nothing to worry about
[14:59] {Threei}  when it was so clearly major threat, not to be dismissed and impossible to fix easy
[15:02] {dino} wbmd sm s .75
[15:04] {dino} cov .45, +.30
[15:04] {dino} too soon
[15:07] {Threei}  http://www.cnbc.com/id/45480363
[15:09] {Threei}  just proves... no one is getting it right every time
[15:09] {Threei}  although this part makes me wonder...
[15:09] {Threei}  Paulson is confident that �many of our position will recover as fear subsides.�
[15:09] {Threei}  ummm
[15:10] {Threei}  and what if instead of that EUjust breaks apart?
[15:14] {RonS} Leon lays it out:  http://tinyurl.com/7of957d
[15:14] {Threei}  Fithc just said France is under threat of downgrade
[15:15] {Threei}  market nodded and spiked
[15:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .60 break half lot
[15:19] {Threei}  if stasys above .50
[15:21] {Threei}  good one Ron
[15:23] {Threei}  valid still TNA
[15:24] {dino} good letter
[15:26] {Threei}  invalidated now
[15:35] {Threei}  gosh... I just turned CNBC on and first time in years saw maria... what happened to her
[15:36] {RonS} wish nemo was here to comment...
[15:36] {Threei}  I wouldn't have asked then :)
[15:36] {RonS} lol
[15:36] {Threei}  hectic up and down, no pattern
[15:36] {Threei}  market is seriously confused
[15:37] {Threei}  (EU) German and French Fin Mins: we respect ECB independence, ECB Pres Draghi will have to decide what is best for the ECB
[15:37] {Threei}  narrow day with no direction... empty day for me
[15:37] {Threei}  was able to fix morning damage but that's about all
[15:49] {Threei}  market can;'t even decide what to do on last minutes
[15:50] {Threei}  tesion in the airt is so thick, you can cut it with knife
[15:50] {Threei}  fear to be long into collapse... fear to be felt out if "solution" is announced
[15:51] {Threei}  which fear takes over
[15:51] {RonS} what happened to maria:  http://tinyurl.com/6vxlxca
[15:51] {Threei}  oh god
[15:52] {Threei}  why did you do this to me
[15:52] {RonS} what?
[15:52] {Threei}  can't see them like this :)
[15:53] {Threei}  fear of collapse takes over
[15:53] {Threei}  I want back in the world where no one is above 30
[15:54] {RonS} uh, that ship has sailed...
[15:54] {Threei}  two things about my friends
[15:54] {Threei}  one, they get older and older every time I see them, but that would be fine if not second
[15:54] {Threei}  which is: their eyesight is going... they think it's ME who is getting older
[15:56] {patience} ty vad, day is done for me, no trades yesterday or today...last week took a lot of energy out of me   :)
[15:56] {Threei}  yesterday was good...
[15:57] {Threei}  today, nothing aligned rtight
[15:57] {Threei}  well, something did but was balanced out by what didn't
[15:58] {dino} done here too, ok day, thx for ideas
[15:58] {Threei}  thank you, have a good evening
[15:58] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:58] {patience} correction, i did buy mnt.to   the royal canadian mint bullion trade which started today....tucked some away in my long term account

Nov 28 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership. Free trial is available)


 Very nice day with just one 7 cents stop, and even that if you decided not to take scalp at 1:1. Fair number of good trades, too - even though usually big gap up is nit our trading environment.

Session Time: Mon Nov 28 00:00:00 2011
[07:53] {_optionman} good morning
[08:59] {Threei}  good morning
[09:04] {thomcbell} hi Vad
[09:04] {Threei}  thomc :)
[09:17] {swill} morning
[09:17] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:18] {Threei}  succinct summary:
[09:18] {Threei}  Italian banks also soared after speculation that IMF was in talks with Italy for a financing package of �600B with a rate in the range of 4-5% which would give the country breathing room as it implements its austerity measures. Although the reports were denied by the IMF and other official sources, the article from La Stampa continued to sustain European markets, in the hope that maybe where there's smoke, there's fire. On the other hand, a worrying report from Moody's warned that the probability of multiple defaults by the euro zone countries is no longer negligible.
[09:23] {Threei}  let's skip first few minutes
[09:24] {jakob} good morning
[09:24] {Threei}  jakob :)
[09:24] {ese} morning
[09:24] {Threei}  big gap up day, hate it
[09:24] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:24] {Threei}  dino decided to sleep it out I guess
[09:24] {Threei}  our problem for today:
[09:25] {Threei}  rally is based on BS, and the only real reason under it is short squeeze, plain and simple
[09:25] {ese} can't says i blame him
[09:25] {Threei}  market was severely oversold as we noted last week,
[09:25] {Threei}  it was time for a band to snap back, and it does
[09:26] {Threei}  but to determine how long such squeeze can continue and high high it can take the market is next to impossible
[09:26] {Threei}  it can fizzle out right here or it can continue for a week,
[09:26] {Threei}  deopending on the next news and depending on where funds stand
[09:27] {Threei}  they can't afford to miss the end of year rally,
[09:27] {Threei}  so they might jump in, adding fuel toi the squeezes
[09:28] {Threei}  so, let's see what is vulnerable to short on downturns,
[09:28] {Threei}  let's see what pulls back enough for safe long
[09:28] {Threei}  and stay patient
[09:28] {Threei}  sounds like a plan?
[09:30] {swill} yes
[09:31] {Threei}  MON French high administrative court reverses decision to suspend genetically modified corn crop (UPDATE)
[09:32] {Threei}  nice jump MON
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:37] {Threei}  1:1
[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .45 break
[09:40] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[09:40] {nemo} so...why is the market up today?
[09:40] {Threei}  lol
[09:41] {nemo} mmmhhh...finished 3rd glass of wine..weighed out my powder charges...almost time to go hunting
[09:42] {Threei}  disregard RIMM
[09:42] {Threei}  not liking how it trades
[09:43] {nemo} btw...looking at the charts this would be a very interesting area to look for a fade on spy/iwm related etf products
[09:45] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .85 break
[09:45] {Threei}  oops... late
[09:45] {Threei}  no chasing
[09:45] {nemo} Here's what I'm looking at:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=270474c6-7123-4a91-b966-2803b01a6b8a
[09:45] {Threei}  let's see if jumps over .80 for the same setup
[09:45] {Threei}  ok
[09:45] {Threei}  in
[09:46] {Threei}  stop above .90
[09:47] {Threei}  1:1
[09:49] {Threei}  1:2
[09:49] {Threei}  1:3, out
[09:49] {Threei}  very nice of LVS to give second chance
[09:49] {swill} gj
[09:49] {Threei}  ty
[09:49] {nemo} o.k. for those of you keeping score, had you gone long tza (hiccup) you'd be up $.50
[09:50] {thomcbell} ob1500syt mkt wdco[t0106
[09:51] {thomcbell} disregard
[09:51] {nemo} you drinking too?
[09:51] {RonS} omg...has hell frozen over?...Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank will announce he does not intend to seek re-election in 2012
[09:52] {nemo} anal cancer
[09:52] {thomcbell} oof
[09:52] {nemo} wow, my Congressman is retiring
[09:52] {nemo} I think he's almost 70 years old now
[09:56] {_optionman} g
[09:57] {nemo} I picture him in a cape with a big Gamma sign on his chest
[09:59] {RonS} ...w/ his vehicle powered by theta burn
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) OCT NEW HOME SALES: 307K V 313KE
[10:00] {nemo} and his dog beta
[10:00] {nemo} o.k. what's his girlfriend's name?
[10:01] {nemo} Spread?
[10:01] {nemo} Butterfly?
[10:01] {Threei}  (IT) Italy yield curve is no longer inverted as 2-year yield level moves below the 10-year yield- Curve inverted back on Nov 22nd
[10:02] {Threei}  crisis is over I guess
[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[10:05] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[10:06] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:10] {RonS} $SINA Possible Muddy Waters Target According to WSJ
[10:10] {Threei}  FCX valid again
[10:14] {Threei}  off again
[10:14] {Threei}  I don't feel like playing breakout here
[10:16] {thomcbell} mgm 9.76 break?
[10:17] {thomcbell} long
[10:18] {ese} I've had my finger on the trigger about 4 times this morning vad but haven't pulled it.....odd feeling here on my side
[10:19] {Threei}  not sure thomc
[10:19] {Threei}  something is off about it
[10:20] {thomcbell} ok chiefy
[10:20] {ese} usually play my stuff off the spyders but it's in a very narrow range feels like it could drop as easily as take off.......odd
[10:21] {ese} nemo ron.....anyone else got the heebee jeebees
[10:22] {RonS} got the jeebees...leaving the heebees to barney...
[10:22] {nemo} oy vay
[10:23] {ese} egggzactlilly
[10:23] {Threei}  lol
[10:32] {Threei}  (IT) Egan Jones said to have cut Italy rating one notch - financial press
[10:32] {Threei}  *(US) NOV DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING: ACTIVITY: 3.2 V 5.0E
[10:33] {nemo} that's two pieces of bad news today and the market isn't dropping
[10:39] {Threei}  37% View Occupy Wall Street Protesters Very Unfavorably
[10:40] {Threei}  I guess that undermines the notion that they are 99%
[10:40] {Threei}  at best, 63
[10:42] {RonS} lol...I'm currently casting my one-man show about the life and career of Barney Frank...in contention are Nathan Lane and Cookie Monster
[10:53] {ese} sounds like a good show
[11:01] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  36 break
[11:02] {Threei}  if stays under .05
[11:05] {RonS} lol...79% of Germans oppose a Eurobond, 86% favor a "Hasselhoff Dollar"
[11:07] {Threei}  wow
[11:07] {Threei}  Sina Corporation Muddy Waters: No plans to publish research on Sina; Muddy Waters has not done any analysis of Sina
[11:07] {Threei}  ***Note that this comment comes in response to earlier press speculation that a report on Sina would be published by Muddy Waters shortly.
[11:07] {Threei}  I'd call it derivative short
[11:08] {Threei}  start a rumor of Muddy waters rfeporting on someone, profit from short
[11:13] {Threei}  FCX no worky unless you just took 1:1 scalp
[11:23] {nemo} scary..Maxine Waters wants BF's position on the finance committee
[11:27] {Threei}  they never go away, do they... they just trade places
[11:38] {Threei} Short Setup: TX  .95 break small shares
[11:39] {Threei}  stop above 17.10
[11:42] {Threei}  no comments
[11:42] {Threei}  feel free to cover as you see fit
[11:43] {swill} good call
[11:43] {Threei}  ty
[11:43] {cipher} gj
[11:54] {Threei}  IA) Iran official news agency Fars is reporting that a "loud explosion" has been heard in the Iranian city of Isfahan - Israel's Haaretz
[11:54] {Threei}  ***Isfahan, Iran's third largest city, is home to nuclear experimental reactors as well as facilities for producing nuclear fuel (UCF). It has one of the largest steel-producing facilities in the entire region, as well as facilities for producing special alloys.
[11:55] {Threei}  great... just what the world needs right now
[11:58] {Threei}  LUNA spike and halt
[12:02] {Threei}  revelation from high above:
[12:02] {Threei}  (EU) IMF's Lagarde: Europe needs to quickly develop a comprehensive solution to the crisis
[12:02] {Threei}  wow
[12:08] {Threei}  trading slowed to a crawl
[12:08] {Threei}  no one knows what to do till next headline
[12:14] {thomcbell} aapl doesnt come in
[12:14] {thomcbell} lvs ready to break 0.70 cents in either directin
[12:14] {thomcbell} incredibly tight range for lvs
[12:14] {Threei}  everything is locked
[12:15] {patience} good morning
[12:15] {thomcbell} crude lod
[12:15] {Threei}  if no news comes, long would be my guess
[12:15] {Threei}  morning patience
[12:26] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break
[12:27] {Threei}  stop above 36
[12:28] {Threei}  target 1:3
[12:31] {Threei}  1:1
[12:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .30 break
[12:39] {Threei}  half lot
[12:40] {Threei}  stop under .20
[12:42] {Threei}  stop to .24
[12:42] {Threei}  1:1
[12:50] {Threei}  1:2
[12:56] {Threei}  1:3, out
[12:58] {thomcbell} lvs been strong up until last few minutes
[13:57] {Threei}  no news for this selling
[14:05] {Threei}  or this buying
[14:31] {Threei}  (EU) US President Obama: US prepared to do its part to help solve the EU crisis - comments following meeting with EU leaders today
[14:31] {Threei}  - EU's Van Rompuy: Global growth slowdown is not solely due to the EU, other economies must take action; EU is preparing new measures to deal with Iran
[14:31] {Threei}  - EU's Barroso: Confident Europe can resolve its issues
[14:59] {patience} .
[15:18] {Threei}  (EU) US Ambassador to the EU clarifies that the US has made no financial commitments to help Europe solve its debt issues
[15:18] {Threei}  - Note: Earlier President Obama commented that the US was prepared to do its part to help solve the EU crisis
[15:19] {RonS} maybe he is going to offer them sanctions...
[15:37] {RonS} lol...Isn't it obvious? $GRPN and $GS need to merge.
[15:40] {Threei}  hmmm
[15:40] {Threei}  how?? :)
[15:40] {Threei}  or, why?
[15:41] {RonS} satire...both in the tank...
[15:41] {Threei}  anyway, for the notorious big gap up day we did pretty good - just one 7 cents stop, and even that if you didn't take scalp
[15:41] {Threei}  quite a few nice trades
[15:41] {Threei}  felt like empty day but record says otherwise
[15:42] {swill} thank you
[15:42] {Threei}  sure thing
[15:42] {Threei}  everyone looked at povit levels?
[15:42] {Threei}  http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/11/nemos-findings-week-of-1127.html
[15:42] {Threei}  pivot too
[15:47] {Threei}  OK guys,  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:48] {swill} see ya

Nemo's Findings week of 11/27

Oy vay...back from the wilds of South Jersey...having negotiated the straits of New York...don't think Snake Pliskin would dare to go there...If you've never had the pleasure, negotiating the toll booths on the GW Bridge is a unique experience, kinda' like a root canal.  Anyway, here are the static levels for next week.

I've included a longer time-frame than usual this week because the price action seemingly appears ready to test the October lows (who knows).  Seemingly this is a Euro story for the foreseeable future.  Anyway...I have included the volume at price indicator/study which tells us (kinda') what volume was done at a given price level and it's distribution between bid and ask.  Levels of heavy volume are likely to be levels of inflection.  Pay attention to the corresponding pivot/retracement levels to which they correspond. 


Here are the formats should you wish to import them.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=bbf05069-0c06-4cb9-9ab9-c226de89a94a

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=2ee7a3f4-1362-4ad8-89fd-33503e01c72f

Market Week Wrap-up

Market Week Wrap-up

- European debt contagion got further out of hand this week, as investors liquidated assets, took refuge in dollars and USTs and markets sank lower. Coming into the week, a chorus of voices were sounding the alarm about the impact of the European crisis, further inflaming sentiment: Moody's warned that higher borrowing costs would be credit negative for France, Germany's BdB Banking Association warned that German local governments are already having trouble financing themselves and Goldman Sachs cautioned that sovereign risk is "spreading like wildfire." In the US, the Congressional supercommittee tasked with developing deep, structural reforms to the budget failed to come to an agreement. The result was expected, although it further damaged confidence. JP Morgan came out a cut their outlook on commodities to underweight and noted policy failures in the US and Europe have darkened the six-month outlook. With the EFSF bailout fund clearly faltering, markets were also reacting to the sense that officials do not have the proper tools to halt contagion. Indeed, German party officials warned that Germany did not have a 'bazooka' plan to deal with the crisis. The IMF proposed new liquidity lines, up to 24 months in scope, allowing nations to borrow against a multiple of their IMF quota to finance balance of payment needs, however analysts panned it as too little, too late. The European Commission floated several preliminary ideas for creating a euro bond system, although Germany, Finland and the Netherland's continue to categorically rule out euro bonds. The situation took a marked turn for the worse after a very disappointing German 10-year bund auction on Wednesday morning; in the auction,the Bundesbank was forced to buy 39% of the €6B on offer, leaving the sale "technically uncovered." Global growth fears were further exacerbated by a sub-50 reading in the November HSBS flash PMI reading for China and the revision lower in the second reading of US Q3 GDP. US Treasury prices were bid throughout the week from safe haven flows, though gains were modest spreads between US and European interest rates widened. The US 10-year yield remains below 2% and for the first time in more than 2-years the German Bund's yield exceeds that of the US Treasury's by more than 30 basis points. For the week the Dow was off 4.8%, the NASDAQ declined 5% and the S&P 500 lost 4.7%. This was the worst performance by the leading US indices during the Thanksgiving week since the market began observing the holiday in 1942.

- In US equity news, there were two notable mergers announced this week. Biotech firm Pharmasset agreed to be acquired by Gilead Sciences for $137/shr in cash, an 89% premium to the firm's prior closing price. The transaction is valued at $11B. Pharmasset is conducting clinical trials on promising hepatitis C medicines. Property and casualty insurer Alleghany signed a definitive deal to acquire reinsurer Transatlantic Holdings for $3.4B in cash and stock, for an implied deal value of $59.79/shr. This new offer values Transatlantic at nearly $5 more per share than Validus' latest offer, which may help Transatlantic prevent Validus' hostile takeover. In earnings news, investors were not enthusiastic about Hewlett-Packard's Q4 results. HP only just met expectations in the quarter, while its earnings forecast for Q1 and FY12 was strikingly weak, and the firm refrained from offering revenue guidance. Deere was a rare bright spot: the company firmly beat earnings and revenue targets in its Q4 report and offered a very bullish forecast for 2012, including very strong double-digit revenue gains for both the year and the first quarter.

- The triple whammy of the European debt crisis, US budget policy gridlock and global growth fears drove FX trading this week. Risk-off sentiment eventually benefitted the greenback and the yen, although the euro held up to a certain degree on Monday and Tuesday as markets watched the US Congressional supercommittee go down in flames. In the early part of the week the EUR/USD maintained a hold above 1.3450, despite the evident contagion and a very poor Spanish 3- and 6-month bill auction featuring yields at 14-year highs, well above 5%. The failed German 10-year bund auction on Wednesday sent EUR/USD definitively below the pivotal 1.3370 channel-line support area. Note that on Tuesday, CLS Bank International, the backbone of the FX trading settlement system, said it was evaluating various contingency scenarios in which the euro zone breaks up. 

- As the week drew to a close a combination of risk aversion and ECB comments sent the Euro to fresh 7-week lows against the USD and JPY pairs. The rating agencies continue to be active with sovereign downgrades with Portugal and Hungary cut to junk status by Fitch and Moody's while S&P cut Belgium's rating as well in the last 24 hours. The Franc0-German-Italian press conference failed to inspire any initial compromise by Germany on the issuance of joint euro bonds to help stem the debt crisis in Europe. Chancellor Merkel stuck to her guns in her opposition of such bonds.

- Kokusai Asset Management was said to have sold entire holdings of Spanish and Belgian government bonds in flagship fund. EUR/JPY cross hit six-week lows as its tested below 103.20. The big upswing in USD/JPY on Tuesday was said to have been due to some decent Japanese exporter interest at the 77.30 area, although the pair drifted back below 77.00 eventually. The pair nearly broke 77.60 on Wednesday after the failed German auction, and ended the week near that level after reports circulated that the BoJ said that have sent survey to major banks regarding fx intervention assistance. Also of note commentary out of the S&P expressed real concern regarding Tokyo's ability to make progress on lowering its debt levels weighed on the Yen, sending USD/JPY above ¥77.50. JGB yields have also risen, with 10-year at a 3-week high above 1%. Concurrently, constraints from the Thailand flood and recent strenth in the Yen saw Japanese economy slip back into deflation, as y/y core CPI fell into contraction for the first time in 4 months. Cabinet officials remained cautious yet defiant, with Dep BOJ Gov Yamaguchi stating financial market condition are still severe, but also attributing Yen strength to safety.


TradeTheNews

Nov 25 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Short day with a few nicely profitable trades.


Session Time: Fri Nov 25 00:00:00 2011
[08:25] {_optionman} good morning
[08:41] {Threei}  morning
[08:41] {Threei}  "good" part is depending on one's exposure to the market... :)
[08:41] {Threei}  with Italian 10 years at 7.34%...
[08:44] {Threei}  2-year 7.49
[09:03] {swill} what time is the market finished today?
[09:04] {Threei}  1 EST, 10 our time
[09:04] {swill} thanks. morning
[09:21] {RonS} gm everyone...qotd already?  Black Friday: Groupon offers 10% off Italian Bonds, but all shoppers are at Macys $$
[09:22] {Threei}  lol
[09:22] {Threei}  morning ron
[09:24] {_nocki} morning
[09:25] {Threei}  morning nocki
[09:27] {Threei}  some climb in SPY over last 30-40 min
[09:27] {Threei}  but I tend to think selling will be main theme today again
[09:28] {Threei}  btw, speaking of thinking,
[09:28] {Threei}  stumbled nto this gem while writing the course:
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:13] {Threei} for every someone who tries to put a floor, there is another someone who tries to put a ceiling...
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:13] {Threei} let them duke it out and take the side of the winner
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:14] {Threei} that was my (rare) attempt at thinking
[09:29] {Threei}  06[11:14] * Threei takes a bow
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:14] {nemo} does it hurt?
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:14] {Threei} very much
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:14] {nemo} sorry
[09:29] {Threei}  [11:14] {Threei} it's OK... self-inflicted
[09:29] {Threei}  that makes into the course for sure
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[09:30] {Threei}  half lot
[09:30] {Threei}  if stays under .20
[09:31] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .90 break half lot
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .05
[09:33] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:33] {Threei}  FCX, change of plan
[09:33] {Threei}  .15 break trigger
[09:33] {Threei}  .25 invalidation/stop
[09:33] {Threei}  ok... invalidated
[09:35] {Threei}  nearing the top
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[09:35] {Threei}  if stays under .30
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 breaktarget about 1:4
[09:36] {Threei}  oops
[09:36] {Threei}  two in one
[09:36] {Threei}  SLW taregt about 1:4
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[09:36] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:37] {Threei}  FCX invalidated
[09:38] {Threei}  no news yet for this SPY spike
[09:38] {Threei}  SLW stays weak
[09:38] {thomcbell} qcom out Vad ;)
[09:38] {Threei}  1:1
[09:39] {thomcbell} plus 0.80
[09:39] {thomcbell} per wed comment
[09:39] {Threei}  nice
[09:39] {Threei}  gutsy too
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[09:40] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:41] {Threei}  (GE) Germany's Bundesrat (upper house) supports an EU-wide financial transaction tax (Tobin tax)
[09:42] {Threei}  FCX target 1:3
[09:43] {Threei}  come on SPY, roll over already
[09:45] {Threei}  SLW 1:2
[09:46] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:48] {Threei}  SLW 1:3
06[09:48] * pragmatic out SLW (no shares left to partial)
[09:49] {nemo} Hah!
[09:49] {Threei}  nemo :)
[09:49] {Threei}  FCX 1:2
[09:49] {nemo} How's the morning?
[09:50] {Threei}  SLW target hit
[09:50] {Threei}  out
[09:50] {Threei}  beautiful
[09:50] {thomcbell} beautiful Vad
[09:50] {Threei}  1:4 SLW, FCX 1:3 is coming
[09:50] {nemo} is it half a day or whole day?
[09:50] {Threei}  just one request thom if I may...
[09:51] {Threei}  using descriptions like "nice or beautidful" make sure it's clear you are talking about trades and not me
[09:51] {Threei}  I am neither {G}
[09:51] {RonS} 1 pm est close nemo
[09:51] {Threei}  half fay nemo
[09:51] {cipher} wtg vad
[09:51] {Threei}  day
[09:51] {Threei}  ty sir
[09:51] {nemo} I'm working on the last remaining Oktoberfest Bier
[09:52] {RonS} moving on to novemberfest?...
[09:52] {Threei}  rofl
[09:53] {nemo} Gotta' drink it while it's fresh, and I'm not driving this morning..hehehhehehe
[09:53] {nemo} In Maryland at the moment
[09:58] {thomcbell} nice niemo - its past noon in Germany
[10:01] {Threei} Short Setup: QCOM  .50 break half lot
[10:02] {Threei}  if stays under .60 scalpers, .65 day traders
[10:02] {thomcbell} like it vad
[10:02] {Threei}  QCOM trades are coming to the cinema near you - by popular demand
[10:02] {Threei}  half lot for the starters until we get more familiar with the way it moves
[10:04] {Threei}  no go
[10:04] {Threei}  SPY decided to retest day high it seems
[10:26] {_optionman} here
[10:26] {nemo} who cares?
[10:26] {Threei}  lol
[10:26] {Threei}  have another beer nemo
[10:29] {thomcbell} qcom still on radar vad
[10:29] {thomcbell} aapl getting hit hard here
[10:30] {Threei}  as but I see no clear pattern anywhere
[10:30] {Threei}  as = yes
[10:32] {thomcbell} right same
[10:33] {thomcbell} trades great
[10:33] {thomcbell} actually
[10:33] {thomcbell} the cash strippers buying value
[10:43] {nemo} Hope he has alot of vaseline
[10:43] {Threei}  have another beer nemo
[10:44] {nemo} way ahead of ya' vad
[10:44] {Threei}  no doubt :)
[10:47] {nemo} Paulaner Oktoberfest Maerzen....
[10:47] {nemo} brings back memories when I lived in Muenchen
[10:47] {nemo} Was my favorit brewery to fall out of
[10:50] {Threei}  (EU) Netherlands, Germany, and Finland Finance ministers plan to make statement at 11:15ET following ESM meeting - financial press'
[10:50] {Threei}  stay tuned
[10:50] {Threei}  25 min till we get nuggets of wisdom
[10:54] {thomcbell} looking at QCOM Here Vad - what would be the available setups
[10:54] {thomcbell} no double top available
[10:54] {thomcbell} that we would be looking for
[10:55] {Threei}  .70 breakdown earlier
[10:56] {Threei}  conmsolidation in that mini-range, breakdown
[10:56] {Threei}  kind of mini-DBI
[10:57] {thomcbell} aapl unreal
[10:57] {thomcbell} getting slammed
[11:01] {thomcbell} lvs43.09 break?
[11:02] {thomcbell} if stays below 42.20
[11:02] {thomcbell} i think Vad
[11:02] {Threei}  I think so
[11:05] {thomcbell} seems like a candidate for a time stop
[11:10] {thomcbell} covered half flat at break even 43.09
[11:10] {Threei}  marlket has no direction
[11:10] {thomcbell} 43.20 on balance lvs
[11:11] {thomcbell} and potential binary here at 11:15 no interest
[11:11] {thomcbell} flat
[11:11] {Threei}  (EU) EMU Finance Ministers at their upcoming statement will mention details related to the IMF - CNBC Europe citing source
[11:11] {Threei}  s- Note: The Netherlands, Germany, and Finland Finance ministers plan to make statement at 11:15ET following ESM meeting
[11:11] {nemo} mmmhhhh....
[11:11] {Threei}  let's wait out this silly time
[11:12] {thomcbell} agreed
[11:14] {nemo} vwap .70 IWM and 117.20 on spy
[11:14] {thomcbell} sbux may be long candidate if market improves
[11:29] {Threei}  GR) International Institute of Finance (IIF): Greece now said to be negotiating directly with banks on the bond swap details - financial press
[11:29] {Threei}  Greece calling for 25% NPV of new bonds, banks calling for 40%
[11:31] {nemo} btw...
[11:32] {nemo} I'm not as think as you drunk I am
[11:32] {Threei}  hmmm
[11:32] {Threei}  I need a drink to decode that
[11:33] {nemo} I see Italy's debt sales went well...
[11:35] {RonS} sick, but lol:  best part about Thanksgiving is eating until you want to vomit, then murdering someone the next day for a flatscreen
[11:35] {Threei}  lol
[11:35] {nemo} sounds like heaven to me...frankly, I see no need for the flatscreen excuse
[11:36] {RonS} rotflol
[11:36] {Threei}  (EU) Finance Ministers from Netherlands, Germany and Finland agree that treaty changes are necessary
[11:36] {Threei}  - Ministers will decide on Greece payout next week based on Troika reports; decisions also due Dec 9
[11:43] {RonS} hmmm, aapl at its 200 day sma
[11:48] {cipher} l ibm .55
[11:51] {cipher} out .70
[11:56] {Threei}  market's not impressed
[11:59] {RonS} classic...We should be harnessing $RIMM new 52-week lows and using them for an alternative fuel source
[11:59] {Threei}  {RIMM} that hurts you know
[12:00] {nemo} beer and hotfudge sundae is an interesting flavor combination
[12:01] {cipher} does anyone have a link for all ecn rebates for liquidity adding/removing?
[12:02] {Threei}  better ask broker
[12:02] {Threei}  it can vary from one to another
[12:02] {cipher} getting some conflicting info
[12:02] {nemo} doin' a few hundred thousand shares a day there cipher?
[12:03] {cipher} not yet, just getting started
[12:03] {Threei}  who are you starting with?
[12:03] {cipher} you mean what broker?
[12:03] {Threei}  yes
[12:03] {Threei}  or trading
[12:04] {Threei}  if I misunderstood "styarting" part
[12:04] {cipher} oh
[12:04] {nemo} well you misunderstand typing part
[12:04] {Threei}  always
[12:04] {Threei}  lol
[12:05] {cipher} been trading for little over a month now... that means I'm a newbie just starting out
[12:05] {Threei}  dcc me if don't wasnt to broadcast
[12:05] {cipher} that's what I meant
[12:05] {Threei}  yes... I mean the broker with whom you are trying to get your rebates straight
[12:06] {cipher} but I'm planning to start increasing size soon so ecn fees will start to become an issue
[12:06] {cipher} my broker is Nevis
[12:06] {Threei}  OK... dcc me please
[12:07] {nemo} they are always proportionally the same, that is unless you're trading sub-100 share lots
[12:19] {RonS} nflx racing to catch rimm...
[12:31] {_optionman} t
[12:37] {Threei}  *(BE) S&P CUTS BELGIUM TO AA+
[12:37] {Threei}  short at will
[12:39] {Threei}  (IT) Fitch: Italy probably already in recession; Takes rating action on Italian Medium-Sized Banks
[12:39] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Mersch: Bond purchases by the ECB are temporary; Cannot accept govts request for continued bond buying
[12:40] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Rehn: Leaders must do what is necesary for the Euro; there is no reason to speculate on a break up of the EMU: not expecting the Euro to 'fall down
[12:40] {Threei}  wanna bet Rehn?
[12:40] {Threei}  '- Italy will remain part of the Euro in the future
[12:40] {Threei}  again... wanna bet?
[12:40] {Threei}  - Notes that no amount of fiscal stimulus could solve the crisis
[12:41] {Threei}  this I agree
[12:44] {Threei}  *(BE) FITCH LOWERS RATING ON BELGIUM BY ONE NOTCH TO AA FROM AA+
[12:44] {Threei}  lol
[12:44] {Threei}  when it rains...
[12:49] {patience} ok, closed my tza position, 3k shares, don't want to hold over the weekend
[12:54] {Threei}  Ok guys
[12:54] {Threei}  let's have well-deserved weekend
[12:55] {Threei}  adventures are far from over
[12:55] {Threei}  next week will be just as interesting
[12:55] {Threei}  if not more
[12:55] {Threei}  have a great weekend, see you on Monday

Nov 23 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Nicely profitable day readable although activity died early. Still, TZA and other usual suspects did their job for us.


Session Time: Wed Nov 23 00:00:00 2011
[08:00] {_optionman} good morning
[08:30] {Threei}  morning
[08:38] {thomcbell} Vad - yesterday you were looking for buy setups - on monday you wanted to short the first bounce - what determines your initial bias'
[08:40] {Threei}  it's not necessary the same thing every time
[08:41] {Threei}  can't remember about Monday, that was beyond my memory span...
[08:41] {thomcbell} i figured - today will you state your reasoning for your initial bias
[08:41] {Threei}  lol
[08:41] {Threei}  yesterday it was mostly market pre-opening reaction to bad news headlines,
[08:41] {Threei}  it was lurching up,
[08:42] {Threei}  as if it were too tired of hearing them and wanted to bounce anyway
[08:42] {Threei}  signs of technical bounce coming...
[08:42] {Threei}  turned out to be very fleeting, but did provide us with a few plays
[08:54] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 393K V 390KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.691M V 3.621ME
[08:54] {Threei}  *(US) OCT DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -0.7% V -1.2%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: +0.7% V 0.0%E
[08:55] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar Goldman Sach analyst note on Euro: Recommends closing position on Euro longs (timing uncertain)- Goldman previously recommended being long the EUR/USD pair back
[08:55] {Threei}  on Nov 11th
[08:55] {Threei}  hmm... did Euro really gain since Nov 11?
[08:57] {Threei}  not according to my charts
[09:03] {Threei}  ah, I see... headline said "taking gains", but that didn't make it in the body of the news
[09:03] {Threei}  (BE) Belgium 5-year gov't yield moves above 5.00%, higher by over 40bps in session
[09:16] {swill} morning
[09:16] {Threei}  swill :)
[09:16] {RonS} gm everyone
[09:17] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:18] {patience} good morning
[09:19] {Threei}  patience :)
[09:20] {_nocki} morning
[09:21] {Threei}  nocki :)
[09:22] {Threei}  So, after all these troubles, falling governments, agonizing over various ways to save this and rescue that, we get this morning:
[09:22] {Threei}  - Greece Central Bank issued an interim monetary report which bluntly stated that the country faced the risk of an Euro Zone exit. Public debt was no longer seen as sustainable and country's Euro zone membership was at stake.
[09:22] {Threei}  - German Chancellor Merkel commented that money to defend the euro was limited and could not print money to defend euro. She added that EU Commission focus on euro bonds was inappropriate as it give the impression that the debt burden could be share and reiterated that joint euro bonds would not work... Lastly she... reiterated that there would be no sixth payment for Greece unless all parties sign the agreement
[09:22] {Threei}  - Moody's sovereign credit chief stated that he expected the credit picture in Europe to continue to be quite negative for some time to come
[09:22] {Threei}  - S&P: Euro region crisis might worsen in coming weeks
[09:22] {Threei}  - German Fin Min Schaeuble reiterated the view... that the origin of the crisis must be addressed (DUH!)
[09:22] {Threei}  - In recent months, deposits have been pulled from banks in countries including Italy and Spain. According to press releases, various large Spanish and Italian banks have had double-digit percentage drops in deposits from institutional clients.
[09:23] {Threei}  I could continue, but you get the picture
[09:23] {Threei}  rescuers, my a**
[09:27] {Threei}  opening volatility is likely to be nasty
[09:27] {Threei}  chart wise, FCX seems to be long with .10 break trigger
[09:27] {Threei}  but keep size smallish
[09:28] {Threei}  if loses 35, pullback to about .85 will be next area of interest
[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .10 break if stays above 35
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:32] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:33] {Threei}  come on already FCX
[09:33] {Threei}  you know you want 1:2
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1 finally
[09:34] {dino} out fcx .23 ty vad, +.12
[09:34] {Threei}  :)
[09:34] {ese} just popping in to say hello.......have a conference call to deal with 8:00pm this morning
[09:35] {dino} we are leaving behind lots of upside gaps
[09:35] {Threei}  hey ese
[09:35] {ese} hey vad
[09:35] {Threei}  staying dry?
[09:35] {dino} have a happy thankgiving ese
[09:35] {ese} you as well dino
[09:35] {dino} thx
[09:35] {Threei}  you know we are closed tomrrow ese?
[09:35] {Threei}  you tend to miss those things :)
[09:35] {dino} this will be 6 down in row for s/p
[09:35] {ese} not yesterday......rode my bike to school and back
[09:36] {Threei}  ouch
[09:36] {dino} 7 of 8
[09:36] {Threei}  LVS
[09:36] {ese} ahhhh  tks for the info
[09:36] {Threei}  watching for long on pullback
[09:36] {Threei}  closed tomorrow, half day Fri
[09:36] {Threei}  .40 - .50 zone for LVS entry
[09:39] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Nowotny: Euro bonds would be impossible without the backing of Germany
[09:39] {Threei}  - Comments on earlier German 10-year Bund auction (which technically failed): The difficulty of placing the issue is 'alarming'
[09:39] {ese} have a great thanksgiving all you south of the border types......cya monday
[09:39] {Threei}  (EU) Germany BDB Banking Assoc: The EU Commission's euro bond proposal is not convincing
[09:39] {Threei}  - Opposes stricter bank stress tests.
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: HBC  .30 break
[09:41] {Threei}  stop for scalpers .36, day traders .41
[09:41] {Threei}  LVS is coming there, don't be in a rush to jump in
[09:43] {Threei}  stop to .36 for day traders too
[09:43] {thomcbell} with market uncertainty - this lvs is so overvalued
[09:43] {thomcbell} still 30 times or something like that
[09:43] {thomcbell} bananas
[09:43] {Threei}  true
[09:44] {Threei}  "this neurotic pursuit of sanity is driving us all bananas"
[09:44] {Threei}  thank you David Gerrold for neverending stock of quotes for all thinkable situations
[09:44] {dino} they either get a printing press or the euro is done in a month
[09:45] {Threei}  they won't dino... I am convinced of it more asnd more each next day
[09:45] {Threei}  they can't
[09:45] {dino} starting to lean that way too, germany is pretty much saying, f it
[09:46] {Threei}  yeah... and if Germany elites try to change this course, country will explode
[09:46] {Threei}  oh come on HBC
[09:47] {Threei}  surely you can do better than this
[09:47] {Threei}  Michigan confidence numbers at 9:55
[09:48] {Threei}  hmmm
[09:48] {Threei}  let's trial to .31
[09:48] {Threei}  trail
[09:48] {Threei}  (US) MOody's affirms US rating following super committee failure
[09:49] {Threei}  out
[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .40 break
[09:49] {dino} stop hbc -.02
[09:50] {Threei}  LVS invalidated
[09:51] {Threei}  no news for this sudden drop
[09:51] {thomcbell} qcom gap down another 0.40 cents - may look to buy the rinse down there
[09:51] {Threei}  LVS is a long on .20 break chart wise
[09:51] {Threei}  but we are 4 min from numbers
[09:52] {Threei}  and market jumps up and down like anthelope with turpentine up its butt
[09:54] {dino} qcom gap 52.24 fwiw
[09:54] {thomcbell} thanks
[09:54] {dino} also 50.15
[09:55] {Threei}  *(US) NOV FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 64.1 V 64.5E
[09:58] {Threei}  market looks like going for breakdown
[09:59] {Threei}  arrrgh
[09:59] {Threei}  just started typing TZA .40 break alert
[09:59] {Threei}  watch for pullback entry
[10:01] {Threei}  will be quick, be ready... entry around .50
[10:01] {dino} s/p oct gap 1155
[10:01] {RonS} es new lows
[10:01] {_optionman} test
[10:01] {Threei}  EUR/USD Pair moves below 1.3370 level electing small sell-stop orders
[10:02] {Threei}  Note the 1.3370 corresponds to a 6-week channel support line that has held numerous times over the past week
[10:03] {Threei}  prepare half lot TZA
[10:03] {Threei}  ideally it dives under .50 and gives us entry between .40 and .50
[10:03] {Threei}  if not, then .80 break is entry with higher risk
[10:04] {Threei}  if go for it, keep stop under .65
[10:06] {dino} qcom sm l .01
[10:06] {Threei}  indecisive market... hopefully pullback it is, don't really want to play break
[10:06] {Threei}  and pullback in TZA would help dino's QCOM
[10:07] {Threei}  nice entry
[10:07] {dino} lucky
[10:07] {Threei}  sure
[10:07] {Threei}  it's only bad luck that is universal... good luck is limited to some lucky individuals :)
[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .85 break
[10:08] {Threei}  if stays under .95
[10:09] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:10] {Threei}  ok... making up my mind
[10:11] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
[10:11] {Threei}  not a scalp
[10:11] {dino} qcom stop flat greed got me
[10:11] {Threei}  capable for about 40 cents movement
[10:11] {Threei}  3 partials
[10:11] {Threei}  1:1
[10:12] {Threei}  first part out .94
[10:12] {Threei}  stop to .75
[10:13] {Threei}  accompanying play would have been FCX .95 short but had no time t alert and would probably have no time to execute both
[10:13] {Threei}  try to exit second part TZA closer to 37.10
[10:14] {Threei}  stop to .79 btw
[10:14] {Threei}  here
[10:14] {Threei}  .05 out second part
[10:15] {Threei}  stop to .84
[10:15] {Threei}  and target for the last piece is around .20
[10:16] {Threei}  beautiful
[10:16] {Threei}  out
[10:16] {Threei}  +.39
[10:16] {dino} nice
[10:17] {Threei}  ty
[10:17] {Threei}  SPY long hesitance smelled of panic coming
[10:17] {thomcbell} market participants not to psyched about having exposure on turkety day
[10:17] {Threei}  no...
[10:17] {RonS} lol...Fitch downgraded Turkey the day before Thanksgiving.
[10:17] {Threei}  lol
[10:18] {Threei}  realization that this thing may unravel very very quickly starts sinking in
[10:19] {Threei}  andf this is the case where living through something of this kind comes very handy - witnessing USSR colllapse, one can appreciate unbelievable speed with which these things may happen
[10:19] {Threei}  wow... TZA had more momentum
[10:22] {Threei}  look at that pathetic disaster of an IPO
[10:22] {Threei}  GRPN of course
[10:30] {Threei}  are you breathing over there?
[10:31] {patience} over where
[10:31] {Threei}  wherevr you are
[10:32] {patience} barely, i have 2k shares of tza held overnight, still have it
[10:32] {Threei}  TZA had a dollar in it
[10:32] {thomcbell} qcom showing relative strength now - no setup yet
[10:33] {thomcbell} in last 5 minutes relative strength ;)
[10:34] {dino}  lng l .60
[10:35] {dino} qcom sm l .01
[10:35] {dino} gpor sm l .60
[10:37] {thomcbell} aapl some fight after nasty am
[10:37] {thomcbell} flat out nasty
[10:38] {thomcbell} still no valid setup here on qcom
[10:38] {thomcbell} but i like it
[10:38] {thomcbell} sm long
[10:38] {thomcbell} small long
[10:42] {dino} out gpor .89, +.29
[10:42] {Threei}  took any profits on QCOM?
[10:42] {dino} no, greed again
[10:42] {Threei}  awww
[10:42] {dino} wanted .30
[10:43] {Threei}  gotta be humble on a long side today...
[10:43] {Threei}  nimble
[10:43] {Threei}  modest
[10:43] {dino} yeah, seeing thaty
[10:43] {thomcbell} i sold 1/2 0.27 and 1/4 at 0.15 other qtr at 0.09
[10:43] {Threei}  all things nemo doesn't want us to be
[10:43] {Threei}  wtg thomc
[10:43] {dino} hard to do when trading sm size
[10:43] {dino} gj tbell
[10:44] {thomcbell} y i did some decent size - stopped in thru 51.76
[10:44] {thomcbell} 5k
[10:44] {Threei}  nice
[10:44] {Threei}  I hereby pronounce you ese the 2nd
[10:44] {thomcbell} still was risky due to lack of setup
[10:45] {thomcbell} no man's land here
[10:45] {_optionman} Will the room be open FridaY
[10:45] {Threei}  half day, yes
[10:45] {thomcbell} like 51.80 for a re-entry if it settles and forms something resembling a setup
[10:45] {Threei}  may be not very productive, but these days are so vilatile, might catch some nice plays
[10:45] {_optionman} Thanks
[10:46] {thomcbell} tape is very scary in my opinion
[10:47] {Threei}  for bulls, yeah
[10:47] {Threei}  bears lick their chops
[10:47] {Threei}  and chops of bulls they can catch and restrain
[10:49] {dino} sm l sohu .48
[10:50] {cipher} +.19 sohu thx dino
[10:51] {nemo} How goes the rat race?
[10:51] {thomcbell} qcom down on htc report apparently - but htc lost share to aapl and samsung who are both large qcom customers
[10:51] {RonS} McClellan at '09 lows...-100
[10:51] {thomcbell} which mcclellan
[10:51] {nemo} Scottish or Irish?
[10:51] {RonS} harvey
[10:51] {nemo} rabbit?
[10:52] {dino} out qcom .29, +.28
[10:52] {thomcbell} ratio adjusted etc
[10:52] {thomcbell} good dino
[10:52] {dino} ty
[10:52] {RonS} lol...didn't think of that ...just trying to be a smart ass
[10:52] {thomcbell} i think it gets up to 52.80
[10:52] {dino} with me out of course
[10:52] {thomcbell} although wouldnt bet my lunch sandwich on it
[10:53] {nemo} where's Vad?
[10:53] {dino} out sohu ave .80, +.32
[10:53] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:53] {nemo} ahhh
[10:53] {Threei}  am I that invisible?
[10:53] {dino} wtf sohu
[10:53] {nemo} I've been here for two minutes and you haven't acknowledged my presence
[10:54] {Threei}  well, to my jmustification, I mentioned you while you weren't here
[10:55] {nemo} thank you
[10:55] {cipher} qcom s .45
[10:55] {nemo} negatively I hope
[10:55] {nemo} got a reputation to maintain
[10:55] {Threei}  of course
[10:55] {dino} dds sm l .75
[10:55] {Threei}  wouldn't dream of insulting you by speaking well of you
[10:55] {nemo} now that's a true friend...
[10:55] {Threei}  [10:43] {Threei} gotta be humble on a long side today...
[10:55] {Threei}  [10:43] {Threei} nimble
[10:55] {Threei}  [10:43] {Threei} modest
[10:56] {Threei}  10:43] {Threei} all things nemo doesn't want us to be
[10:56] {nemo} I'm all for nimble
[10:56] {dino} lol
[10:56] {nemo} Modest?
[10:56] {nemo} why should I be modest about my obnoxiousness?
[10:56] {Threei}  yes, but acknowldeging that would qualify as speaking well of you
[10:56] {thomcbell} Vad u ever read John Person's stuff?
[10:56] {nemo} No one brings it to the level of an artform like I do
[10:57] {Threei}  not only read... we held seminar together once
[10:57] {nemo} ahh, the doji trader
[10:57] {Threei}  well, he is much more than that
[10:57] {Threei}  but I did opick up that doji trick from him
[10:57] {nemo} yes, but that's one of his signature trades
[10:58] {thomcbell} yes the high close doji
[10:58] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/media.html, scroll down to Seminars,
[10:58] {thomcbell} on 15 minute
[10:58] {Threei}  second from top is the one
[10:58] {nemo} or high volume doji, take whichever way it goes
[10:58] {Threei}  he is very impressive trader and teacher, one of the best I've met
[10:58] {cipher} out qcom .19 +.26
[10:58] {thomcbell} y - i like his stuff - seems to fit in with a lot of stuff we do in here
[10:59] {dino} gj
[10:59] {cipher} thx
[10:59] {thomcbell} getting error message on that link
[10:59] {Threei}  hehe... it was a topic we stumbled onto while spoending time in LV... one would speak of something, another would remark something to the effect "exazctly the way I do it"
[11:00] {Threei}  make sure you copy without ,
[11:00] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/media.html
[11:00] {RonS} fwiw...this is the mcclellan mentioned:  http://tinyurl.com/7dg3f37
[11:02] {RonS} wow, groupon offer for 60% off soap making...
[11:02] {RonS} ...and i thought god invented p&g for that...
[11:03] {nemo} can I tell a dirty joke?
[11:03] {Threei}  janitor is frowning
[11:06] {nemo} levels playing well so far, but looks like another low might be coming:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=54de65ff-e3b9-42b9-af36-000e1d4aff12
[11:08] {Threei}  HSBC Holdings PLC Chairman: Not assuming that a financial transaction tax (tobin) will occur in Europe; will oppose the measures
[11:10] {dino} feels like it wants 1155 gap
[11:11] {nemo} that's alotta gap
[11:11] {nemo} s3 is 116.86
[11:11] {nemo} you're at s3 on IWM as well as extended pivot support and price level...be interesting to see how low they want to take it today
[11:12] {RonS} jef sm l .29
[11:12] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .25 break
[11:12] {thomcbell} so its unavailable to view Vad?
[11:13] {Threei}  if stays under .35
[11:13] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .20 break
[11:13] {nemo} looks like it's trying a db here, but I'd prefer spy to get to .9o area
[11:13] {Threei}  what is thom?
[11:13] {Threei}  sorry, lost me
[11:13] {thomcbell} the john person seminar?
[11:14] {Threei}  oh
[11:14] {Threei}  there is no post-seminar site
[11:14] {thomcbell} which seminar - Las Vegas?
[11:14] {Threei}  right
[11:15] {nemo} IMO might consider a SPY/IWM long in this area...if spy drops .86, could go a ways
[11:15] {thomcbell} how about all those SLW buyers - frantically buying up near the 200 sma
[11:15] {Threei}  1:1
[11:15] {thomcbell} crazy
[11:16] {Threei}  that page lists seminars I gave or took part in, links exist to sites that contain some kind of post-seminar report, video, slideshow etc
[11:16] {Threei}  like two bahamas ones for instance
[11:18] {dino} lol, the name of the white house pardoned turkey was corzine
[11:18] {Threei}  rofl
[11:19] {nemo} he may not be that lucky
[11:19] {nemo} anybody take the trade?
[11:19] {cipher} l ibm .28
[11:20] {nemo} guess not
[11:20] {nemo} .05 stop for .25 so far
[11:21] {_nocki} .
[11:21] {nemo} thought it was gnocchi?
[11:22] {Threei}  nocki, feel free to slap him into oblivion with something rough-edged
[11:22] {RonS} ...and btw do you pronounce it like the 3 stooges would?
[11:22] {nemo} watch spy, it breaks here, maybe add to tna
[11:22] {Threei}  he appreciates good violence, both giving and taking
[11:23] {nemo} usually I don't get good...frickin' amateurs
06[11:23] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a bottle of vodka with rough edges
[11:23] {Threei}  like this
[11:23] {RonS} ...'specially for mistres von bunny...
[11:23] {RonS} mistress
06[11:24] * nemo slaps _nocki around a bit with a large cast iron bowl of pasta dough
[11:24] {nemo} crissakes Vad, don't break it and waste the vodka
[11:24] {Threei}  no way
[11:24] {cipher} out ibm .53 +.25
[11:25] {dino} gj
[11:25] {nemo} tza looking better here, out of tna
[11:25] {Threei}  I can't tell
[11:25] {nemo} actually, considering the day and time, it's likely to be a chop fest
[11:25] {Threei}  SPY can drop or bounce here with equal odds
[11:25] {Threei}  or chop around
[11:26] {nemo} I would think it will retrace to the .40 area vwap almost there, but...
[11:27] {nemo} oy,  sensitive
[11:29] {nemo} that was cute price action
[11:29] {Threei}  wow
[11:29] {Threei}  read this piece of cr*p
[11:29] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Rehn: Need to move forward to the implementation of the ESM (permanent bailout facility), which is more robust than the EFSF as it is based on capital
[11:30] {Threei}  PERMANENT bailout facility
[11:30] {Threei}  they completely lost their mind in panic?
[11:30] {dino} lol, they are getting realistic
[11:30] {nemo} large central banks cannot let Keynesianism fail, else they lose their power
[11:31] {dino} govt cannot let deflation win or they fail
[11:31] {Threei}  (EU) Europe Banking Authority (EBA): Markets for medium- and long-term bank funding are frozen
[11:31] {Threei}  - Estimates that banks in Europe will need to refinance �700B for 2012
[11:31] {thomcbell} karl marx was 150 years early with manifesto - sorry Vad
[11:31] {dino} deflation=loss of all control
[11:31] {nemo} collapse of the banks
[11:31] {Threei}  lol thom
[11:32] {thomcbell} qcom a beast - angry growth investors fighting
[11:32] {Threei}  now, you remember the phrase: don't believe anything until it's officially denied?
[11:32] {Threei}  there:
[11:32] {Threei}  (AS) ECB's Nowotny: Fears of a downgrade of Austria's AAA rating are wildly exaggerated
[11:32] {thomcbell} u strip out the cash and blah blah blah
[11:32] {dino} me thinks he protest too much'
[11:35] {_nocki} having some internet problems, but nemo seem to like italian kitchen and is now hungry
[11:36] {Threei}  lol
[11:36] {Threei}  you'll fit right in...
[11:37] {Threei}  just don't forget to slap nemo once in a while, it keeps him motivated
[11:38] {dino} sks l .58
[11:39] {dino} ftk l .10
[11:39] {nemo} I like pain
[11:44] {Threei}  jellyfishy market here
[11:44] {Threei}  no clear direction
[11:44] {Threei}  waiting for something to shape up
[11:47] {nemo} lunch the Wednesday before Thanksgiving
[11:48] {Threei}  still, we should see more action today
[11:48] {Threei}  too much tension in the air
[11:53] {RonS} jef s/l to .49
[11:55] {Threei}  Election 2012: Generic Republican 46%, Obama 43%
[11:55] {Threei}  speaking of which... Ron Paul is killing me
[11:56] {Threei}  the most knowleadgeable man when it comes to economy, but when he opens his mouth on foreign policies, huge red sign "unelectable" fires up on his forehead
[11:59] {Threei}  notice how well SLW is doing while market essentially stalled
[12:03] {dino} cat sm l .06
[12:04] {RonS} jef stop to .59
[12:06] {RonS} out jef +.30
[12:06] {Threei}  wtg
[12:06] {RonS} ty
[12:07] {dino} gj
[12:09] {RonS} dino , you in lng?
[12:15] {dino} yes
[12:15] {dino} sorry was microwaving soup
[12:18] {RonS} dmnd v sm l .30
[12:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .80 break
[12:30] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[12:32] {dino} out lng .71 +.11
[12:32] {RonS} gj...lng fighting a natty gas spike today imo...
[12:32] {dino} cat stop -.33
[12:33] {dino} ty took hours
[12:35] {patience} .
[12:44] {_nocki} VAD - in the morning you said "signs of technical bounce coming...- turned out to be very fleeting, but did provide us with a few plays". What kind of signs told you that?  And, you play FCX, SLW very often. Is there a special criteria, that you like them so much?
[12:44] {Threei}  FCX and SLW, well, the deal with them is this:
[12:45] {Threei}  for the last year at least we have a situation where market is unusually uniform,
[12:45] {Threei}  meaning, stocks have less individuality than normally, and majority of them move with market
[12:45] {Threei}  so we play a lot of those that reflect market well
[12:45] {Threei}  and those happen to be SLW, FCX, LVS
[12:46] {Threei}  and of course TZA/TNA. FAS/FAZ
[12:46] {_optionman} d
[12:46] {Threei}  this changes, we used to have different basket
[12:46] {Threei}  and I am sure it will change at some point again
[12:47] {Threei}  yesterday's morning sings were simply market starting to uptick ignoring the latest batch of bad news
[12:47] {Threei}  which is usually a sign of technical bounce coming while in severely oversold position
[12:47] {dino} gg sm l .01
[12:47] {Threei}  just look at daily... seriously overstretched to the downside
[12:48] {Threei}  not that I would be willing to be a hero and go against the trend
[12:48] {Threei}  but in our very small timeframe such bounces can be found and exploited
[12:48] {Threei}  do I make sense?
[12:48] {_nocki} Yes - in your course, do you so explain things like thqat?- market behavior and so on?
[12:49] {Threei}  most of them, yes
[12:49] {Threei}  they are just scattered all over
[12:49] {nemo} Techniques of Tape Reading alsom
[12:49] {dino} gld spike
[12:49] {Threei}  soe in TTR
[12:49] {Threei}  some in Taoist Trader
[12:51] {_nocki} so the new videocourse will be ready in one month, around christmas?
[12:51] {Threei}  I'd say, Taoist Trader is the most comprehensive in that regard
[12:51] {Threei}  that's what UI am aiming for, yes
[12:54] {dino} broke vwap
[12:56] {Threei}  while working on it, I am running into funny questions, like:
[12:56] {Threei}  cup and handle formation is a breakout,
[12:56] {Threei}  I have a play where we used break of the handle bottom to short
[12:56] {Threei}  so, do I place it in the chapter on C&H whoch is subset of breakouts, or do I place it in chapter on reversals?
[12:57] {RonS} latter imo
[12:57] {_nocki} because very often seems to me that the setups you choose are depending on market behaviour, so it means that you have to be able to read market behaviour to know which setup's at what time to choose. So, it seems to me that a person must have a lot of expaerience to be able to do that and it is not so easy to put it in practise
[12:58] {Threei}  well, that's true for any course and any method
[12:59] {Threei}  market and trading is not something that can be simplified to a few fast rules
[12:59] {Threei}  whatever educational skeleton you obtain, there is still a stage of practicing it and internalizing it
[12:59] {Threei}  which is what we do here
[13:00] {Threei}  just think of it as of any other profession
[13:00] {Threei}  you go over books, courses
[13:00] {Threei}  listen to professors
[13:00] {nemo} 10,000 frickin' hours
[13:00] {Threei}  but when you are done with colege course, you are not a polished professional yet, right?
[13:01] {Threei}  you star applying it in practice, under the watch of instructor
[13:01] {nemo} nope...just an arrogant no-nothing moron with  degree
[13:01] {Threei}  hehe
[13:01] {Threei}  and gradually all those learned bits and pieces start clicking together
[13:02] {nemo} yeah, usually by the third refill of the prozac prescription
[13:02] {Threei}  Ron... took me a while to juggle the options but eventually I decided to put it in C&H section, going by logic:
[13:02] {Threei}  the course is about visual pattern recognition,
[13:02] {Threei}  so it should be in C&H by chart formation sign,
[13:03] {Threei}  and HOW we play it - well, that's what analysis of each chart are for
[13:03] {Threei}  none of the ways is perfect, but this feels a bit more fitting to the course intention
[13:04] {_optionman} Happy thanksgiving all
[13:04] {Threei}  you too
[13:04] {RonS} cya om...
[13:05] {RonS} np 3i...maybe in 2nd edition you can focus on 2 sided setups...
[13:05] {Threei}  oh, there are a few of them
[13:06] {Threei}  overall, it turns out to be a fun course
[13:06] {Threei}  each play has not just a chart with explanations,
[13:06] {Threei}  it also has a link to corresponding day in trading log and quoted comments at the time
[13:06] {Threei}  so it's kind of time machine
[13:07] {Threei}  and each play is not "after the fact" analysis
[13:07] {Threei}  everything is actual, shows the thinking at the time
[13:07] {Threei}  and comments as play developed
[13:08] {Threei}  takes time to dig it all out, but it's fun
[13:09] {RonS} wow, never seen anything like this before:  http://tinyurl.com/c7aj7qf
[13:10] {RonS} dmnd capit ongoing
[13:10] {dino} suicide of accountant auditor
[13:12] {nemo} wow...nature is unkind
[13:14] {dino} out dds .17, +.42
[13:14] {RonS} gj
[13:14] {dino} thx
[13:17] {_nocki} thx vad
[13:18] {Threei}  not sure for what but you are welcome :)
[13:22] {cipher} scalped dmnd +.33 thx Ron
[13:22] {Threei}  nice
[13:23] {RonS} wow, and dino says he is lucky...
[13:23] {dino} :D
[13:27] {_nocki} so, how is it to understand: why you make yesterday a lot of good trades and on monday the most trades where not working? On what is in your opinion depending if trades are working, because youaddapt your setups to market behaviour, but can anyway have a bad day
[13:29] {dino} wag spike
[13:31] {dino} sm s .25
[13:31] {Threei}  well, look at it this way
[13:31] {Threei}  no matter how good you are, you WILL have losing trades and losing days,
[13:31] {Threei}  reason for this is:
[13:32] {Threei}  market is not a environment of certainties, it's enviroment of probailities
[13:32] {dino} cov wag .75, +.50
[13:32] {Threei}  it's being moved by people's emotions,
[13:32] {Threei}  and those are not 100% certain
[13:33] {RonS} nice wtg
[13:33] {dino} ty
[13:33] {Threei}  so, you go with oddsm,
[13:33] {Threei}  odds
[13:33] {Threei}  and adapt as market changes
[13:33] {Threei}  you will win over any statistically valid number of samples if your system is sound
[13:34] {Threei}  but you can never predict outcome of any given play
[13:35] {Threei}  that's why we have stops
[13:35] {Threei}  they limit your losses on those trades that don't work
[13:36] {Threei}  and allow you to structure the odds in your favor
[13:36] {dino} sm s wag .85
[13:36] {Threei}  try to trade without stops - however great you are you WILL go broke
[13:37] {Threei}  real traders know no one wins all the time, thus they cut their losses
[13:37] {RonS} cvs on the other side of wag...
[13:37] {Threei}  loud and proud idiots who think they can win every trade, well... they provide roadkills for the real traders
[13:41] {dino} wag bstop to b/e
[13:41] {dino} to .45
[13:41] {dino} cov +.40
[13:43] {_nocki} so you mean, it is everytime possible to read the market wrong for some trades or for some days, but if you are an experienced trader you will read the market in most cases right?
[13:43] {dino} out sks flat, doesn't move
[13:44] {dino} out ftk .15, +.05 doesn't move
[13:44] {Threei}  pretty much, yes
[13:45] {Threei}  and the surefire way to get killed for ANYONE is to start believeing that you can win every time
[13:45] {Threei}  because as soon as you start believing this, you start taking trades on so-so setups and stop applying stops
[13:51] {Threei}  http://peterlbrandt.com/keynesian-ideology-the-real-smoking-gun-in-the-mf-global-default/
[13:56] {RonS} es trying to challenge low again...
[14:19] {cipher} .
[14:20] {dino} !
[14:21] {dino} sohu sm l .41
[14:27] {dino} out sohu -.05
[14:32] {dino} sohu holding well
[14:33] {RonS} oh boy...Report of 6.1 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Japan
[14:36] {dino} sm l .50
[14:38] {RonS} More: Earthquake epicenter off coast of Fukishima, Japan, felt in Tokyo; no tsunami alert posted
[14:38] {dino} vrnt spike
[14:39] {patience} where is my uranium list
[14:40] {RonS} in your radioactive drawer?
[14:40] {patience} yup, where the chocolate is stored
[14:41] {RonS} lol
[14:42] {RonS} ye olde jellyfish market eh 3i?
[14:45] {dino} dji -900+ pts and 7.5% since 11/15
[14:46] {RonS} ...heard 11th time since 1960 that market down this day
[14:46] {dino} ndx -9.6%, s/p -8.8%
[14:46] {RonS} :O
[14:56] {RonS} dmnd short cover rally
[14:59] {RonS} guess not...$DMND moving via DealReporter story. P&G still interested in selling Pringles to $DMND.
[14:59] {dino} but can dmnd afford it now
[15:00] {RonS} ...if the credit markets were decent, probably
[15:02] {dino} 07 all green
[15:12] {RonS} guess 3i got into the turkey early and fell asleep...
[15:13] {RonS} stupid comment since the canadian thanksgiving was what, patience, a month ago?
[15:13] {Threei}  lol
[15:13] {Threei}  i wish
[15:13] {Threei}  yeah
[15:13] {Threei}  3 weeks
[15:14] {thomcbell} aapl 370.01  vad
[15:14] {thomcbell} not enuf consolidation?
[15:14] {Threei}  yeah, I don't like such entry
[15:17] {thomcbell} VAD i feel like we should put qcom in there with LVS FCX SLW and RIMM - liquid and moves now
[15:18] {Threei}  sounds right to me
[15:25] {dino} stop sohu -.31
[15:27] {Threei}  no direction... can't can a grip on the market to find one last play
[15:27] {Threei}  but trying
[15:28] {dino} gut call, down
[15:32] {Threei}  I wanted to aree, then realized - my gut says down for couple years already :)
[15:33] {Threei}  good thing I trade on setups, not on gut, lol
[15:33] {thomcbell} qcom buy if it gaps down on friday am
[15:34] {thomcbell} aapl too
[15:34] {Threei}  well... depends
[15:34] {Threei}  what is they gap down 30 cents, then on the open EU announces dissolution? :)
[15:35] {thomcbell} stop order
[15:49] {dino} sohu rinsed
[15:57] {Threei}  bulls are not very enthusiastic eh
[15:57] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all, have a great Thanksgiving dinner
[15:57] {Threei}  see you on Friday
[15:58] {thomcbell} take care fellas
[15:58] {patience} have a wonderful Thanksgiving
[15:58] {dino} thx all, have a happy and safe thanksgiving
[15:59] {Threei}  wow
[15:59] {dino} rumors germans may go for euro bonds after their auction failed
[15:59] {Threei}  and I mean wow
[15:59] {Threei}  not exactly
[15:59] {Threei}  here is what they said:
[16:00] {Threei}  (GE) German press report suggests that German ruling coalition may be open to a euro zone bond in the future after Europe forges greater political and fiscal integration
[16:00] {Threei}  - REMINDER: German leadership has frequently noted that a joint euro bond is not a viable short term solution to the crisis but could be an option in the years to come after greater integration is achieved. Note that on 11/15, the German camp seemed to give some ground when Germany Govt Economic Advisor Bofinger ('wisemen') said its conceivable that the ECB should become backstop for bond markets if politics fail.
[16:00] {Threei}  in years eh? as if they have years
[16:00] {Threei}  anyway... no thinking allowed for the next 36 hours
[16:01] {dino} they may issue soon as stop gap, w/ideas in years towards integration
[16:02] {dino} i still lean towards the salvation thru inflation, but just slightly
[16:03] {patience} gov doesn't have a choice dino, inflation down the road.imo
[16:03] {Threei}  we are talking about Europe
[16:04] {Threei}  very different situation