Nemo's Findings

Here are the weekly pivot point updates for the week of 9/25.  I've also noted the daily pivot points for monday in there, as well as a turquoise line on spy that was the premarket high for Friday upon which we basically closed.  Important for Friday, likely temporary.

It will be an interesting week for the levels.  This is the last week for both the Quarterly and Monthly levels...great...lotsa' work next weekend,  As you can see on the SPY chart the Semester S2 played a relatively important role for the last two days.  Also, notice the arrow on Thursday's bottom.  That was a weekly support level on the dot, so that confluence area of Weekly/Monthly support played a significant role this week.  As you can see, there is a fair amount of overhead resistance signified by the confluence levels on the IWM, however SPY will likely lead the parade as it usually does.

From a macro point of view, Europe is seemingly the catalyst this week. The question would seemingly be...If they come out with their own TARP does the market like it or hate it?

spy:   http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=70f5244f-bbfb-4a33-827b-f3fb8e418404

iwm:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=33554400-19c4-4a2a-9ecd-45604caf9de4

Multi Time-Frame Pivot Analysis

Pivot Point analysis is a mathematical derivation based on previous price action.  It defines levels of probability for likely future price action.  Market Makers have often used Pivot Points across multiple time frames to find common adjacent levels between time frames that served as confluence zones - stronger levels of resistance or support ,than a single area alone.

Have you ever noticed that price stops or rises to a certain level that never particularly coincides with a previous level of support or resistance?  Oftentimes you will find that those levels coincide with prices calculated at a multi-time frame level.

I regularly employ charts of the SPY and IWM that map these levels, along with significant Fibonacci retracements, to define levels that may affect price action should they reach those levels.  Sometimes single levels end up affecting price action, many times, areas that contain multiple levels from multiple time zones, serve as confluence zones that are more likely to affect price.

Be warned, these levels are not predictive, but they do provide areas that may warrant your attention as price action approaches them.  I will provide on a weekly basis, these levels for the SPY and IWM, and will hopefully provide a recap of how those levels played out at the end of the week for the SPY to illustrate the concept.  So...

ñ     Pivot levels will be demarcated in Yellow and noted as Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, Semesterly, Yearly.

ñ     Resistance levels will be in progressively darker blues.  The darker the color, the longer the time-frame.

ñ     Support levels will be in progressively darker reds.

ñ     Fibonacci levels will be

◦       Red-most recent swing low or high

◦       Turquoise-from July '10 swing low

◦       White-from March '09 swing low to April '10 swing high

◦       Green- (SPY only) from 2007 high-2009 low.

ñ     The 50 SMA and 200 SMA will be labeled (remember these will change daily so you will need to import the format links to adjust them)

ñ     I will also provide subjective price levels as defined by the price action..I have found that some price levels, contrary to “Candle Theory”, will continue to have some significance even after they have been eclipsed.

ñ     You will also find links to import the format into Freestockcharts.com, and you may amend them as you see fit.

The charts will look very busy on larger time-scales.  They are primarily designed to be used for the upcoming week.  The 15-30 minute scale is optimum.

Nemo

Market Week Wrap-up

Trade The News Weekly market update: Market Week Wrap-up

- Global markets entered liquidation mode this week as the European debt crisis seemed to morph into a European banking crisis and the Fed launched 'Operation Twist,' to terrible reviews. Equities, metals (precious and base), energy and key currencies racked up steep losses heading into week's end as fears of the global economic slowdown plus the Europe situation drove risk into the woodshed. The IMF issued its World Economic Outlook, warning that Europe and the US could slip back into recession in 2012 unless they dealt with problems that were threatening to infect the rest of the world. A round of weak September European PMI data added to baseline risk aversion, including China reporting another sub-50 reading in flash PMI. In its policy decision on Wednesday, the FOMC altered its statement language to read "there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook." The committee also said it would extend the average maturity of securities held on the Fed balance sheet by buying $400B in longer-dated securities and selling shorter-dated notes. While the amount is greater than some observers had expected, the response among analysts was still generally negative, with some decrying the move as ineffectual, some saying it would destroy bank profitability and other calling the move a poorly thought-out QE3. Adding to the growing sense of uncertainty, a looming impasse over a six week stop gap funding measure in the US Congress is again threatening a government shutdown. Global equities saw a massive sell-off in Thursday's session as investors coped with the Fed move, heard the growing consensus that Greece will default while remaining inside the euro zone and threats and worried about the state of the European banking system. For the week the DJIA lost 6.4%, the S&P500 dropped 6.6%, and the Nasdaq fell 5.3%.

- Ongoing policy skirmishes in Washington were hard to ignore this week. On Monday, President Obama handed Congress a $3.5T deficit reduction bill, including $1.5T in funds from his so-called "Buffett Rule" to boost tax rates for those who earn more than $1M. The move provoked howls of protest from the right, which branded the effort "class warfare." The plan will be submitted to the Congressional debt reform super committee, which is mandated to come up with at least $1.2T in budget cuts by November 23rd. In Congress, a routine short-term government funding bill blew up into a battle that could result in a government shutdown in October. With FEMA's war chest running low after the disasters of recent months, the House GOP leadership tried and then failed to pass the government bill that included much less than the requested amount for FEMA and sought to pay for the funds by cutting billions from a program to help car factories retool for building more fuel-efficient vehicles. A total of 48 conservative Republicans defied the leadership on the bill, saying it did not include enough spending cuts. A slightly reconfigured bill passed the House thanks to some arm twisting, although the Democratic-controlled Senate voted down the measure, setting Congress up for more conflict next week.

- In equity news, US bank and insurance stocks were slammed in the wake of the new Fed policy, as investors forecasted that financial sector profits would be hurt by the flattening yield curve. In addition, Moody's downgraded ratings on Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo due to the decreased probability that the US government would support the banks in the event of a crisis. FedEx only just topped expectations in its Q1 report and trimmed its FY12 outlook slightly. FedEx's CEO said that recession is not part of the forecast at the moment, although he does expect sluggish growth. Homebuilders Lennar and KB Homes both reported Q3 results that were much better than expected, and additionally both demonstrated healthy y/y growth in their new order rates. Following Patriot Coal's move last week, two more major coal producers cut production guidance. Alpha Natural Resources and Walter Energy reduced their forecasts based on lower-than-expected output due to negative events at their mines. Hewlett-Packard's board abruptly dumped CEO Apotheker and named former eBay CEO Meg Whitman as the new chief.

- In deal news, Tyco International - which was the focus of various takeover rumors late last week - is moving to separate its businesses into three independent publicly traded companies. The company plans to spin off three units to shareholders, including the ADT North America residential security business, the flow control products and the services and the fire and security business. United Technologies said it would acquire Goodrich for $18.4B in cash, at $127.50/shr. The deal helps UTX gain heft in new aircraft technology and plane services. The company will issue about $4.6B in new shares to fund the deal and cut its spending on share buybacks as it digests its biggest acquisition in a decade.

- Government bond markets continued to make historic moves in Europe and the United States. Tensions surrounding Greece and contagion effects ratcheted up borrowing costs in Europe once again, leading to several reports that in some cases lenders were choosing to pull out of the market all together. Layered on top of deteriorating economic data and the Fed's decidedly disconcerting statement on US growth prospects, safe haven flows sent both yields to new historic lows. Operation Twist had the desired effect, flattening the curve substantially by forcing buyers to the longer end. The US 30-year yield decline by roughly 50 basis points on the week to finish at 2.85% while the 10-year touched a new all time low at 1.7%. In terms of spreads, the US 10-2 year narrowed towards 150 basis points while the 30-10 year declined to 106 from 126 basis points on the week.

- Fears about a Greek default were stoked by conference calls between Greece and IMF/ECB/EU troika officials on Monday and Tuesday. Both sides discussed more measures Greece would need to take to secure the next aid tranche. But the main focus in Europe this week moved on to the delicate state of the continent's financial sector, where fluctuating bank shares reflected investor worries that whatever happens in Athens, a European bank crisis may be inevitable. Tension built on reports that more entities were cutting exposure to European banks, especially after German industrial giant Siemens pulled funds from a French bank and Chinese state banks appeared to sever swap lines with several European counterparts (the Chinese claimed the lines were "full"). On Thursday, reports that the EU was speeding up recapitalization of the 16 mid-tier banks that came close to failing last summer's EU stress tests made the rounds, and on Friday there were reports that France was mulling a unilateral TARP-like program to aid its banks. Even US banks were not immune: one speculative research report making the rounds asserted that Morgan Stanley could have significant exposure to French banking contagion, though it was quickly denied.

- EUR/USD continued the slide seen last week as an endless stream of negative European news and contradictory official rhetoric hammered the single currency. By Friday the technical picture played a role in curbing euro declines as EUR/USD found Fibonacci support around 1.3410, which corresponded to a 50% retracement of the 1.1875 June 2010 low to 1.4939 May 2011 high. In addition, dealers said that there were hopes late in the week that the annual gatherings of the IMF and the World Bank could provide an opportunity to coordinate a fresh round of measures to stem the spread of the crisis. The ECB continued to buy peripheral bonds for the sixth straight week, although Spanish and Italian 10-year yields are higher than ever.

- Sterling slumped after the most recent policy minutes indicated the BoE was ready to provide more stimulus. The vote for QE was 8-1, and the contents of the minutes painted a more dovish view among MPC members. The yen continued to maintain a firm tone. USD/JPY lingered about 25 pips above fresh all-time lows, EUR/JPY hit fresh 10-year highs and GBP/JPY reached all-time highs. With the end of the Japanese fiscal half-year fast approaching, repatriation seems to be generating JPY demand. There were rumors circulating mid-week that the Swiss National Bank might raise the EUR/CHF floor from 1.20 to 1.25, sending EUR/CHF from 1.2060 to test above 1.22 before retreating. Swiss officials would not comment on the market rumors, although dealers said it would be in the SNB's interest to keep investors guessing about where they intend to maintain the floor.

- In Asia, the China flash manufacturing indicator from HSBC echoed the largely disappointing PMI data in Europe, falling to 49.4 from 49.9 prior. Recall that last month marked the first increase in four months, raising some speculation that the downturn in Chinese production has run its course. Instead, this most recent print makes it a third consecutive month that China HSBC PMI data is in sub-50 contraction territory.

- In New Zealand Q2 GDP was also a disappointment, with 0.1% q/q increase coming well shy of 0.5% consensus. The New Zealand dollar sold off sharply to a five-month low of $0.7750 against dollar and also hit a one-week low against its slumping relative AUD. The Reserve Bank of Australia September meeting minutes suggested the markets are overestimating the bank's willingness to cut rates in the face of global turmoil, hinting that it is too early to assess the extent of this crisis. Later in the week, S&P revised the outlook for South Australia region to negative from stable, but affirmed the AAA rating of the sovereign, pointing to strong mining exports and private investment in the resources sector.


TradeTheNews

Sep 23 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)


From the market point of view, pretty much "skipped" day - wait-and-see position with both sides remaining non-committal. Somewhat boring day for us, positive but nothing to drum one's chest about. Overall, nice way to handle what was a very nervous and ugly week for the markets. One trade deserved a quick screenshot' clean sample of bottom-fishing, arrow marks the long entry:

Session Time: Fri Sep 23 00:00:00 2011
[08:57] {Threei}  (GE) Official German debt figures may be understated by as much as 5T (update) - German press
[08:57] {Threei}  - Public debt in Germany may be significantly higher than what is officially stated.
[08:57] {Threei}  - According to Professor of Economics Bernd Raffelhueschen at Freiburg University, in addition to the public debt of 2T, there may be additional liabilities of 5T due to shortfalls in the social security, pensions
[09:22] {Threei}  OK... whether we want it or not, probably will have to open at least one eye
[09:22] {larisa} gm :)
[09:22] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:23] {larisa} vad :)
[09:25] {Threei}  watching FCX
[09:27] {Threei}  first trade half lot, morning volatility as always
[09:28] {Threei}  market attempts snapback rally
[09:28] {Threei}  with previous two days being almost perfect, let's be on conservative side today
[09:29] {Threei}  The We Wont Pay Movement Gathers Momentum in Greece
[09:29] {Threei}  good
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break half lot
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:31] {Threei}  lol, invalidated before I finished typing
[09:31] {Threei}  how about this volatility

[09:34] {Threei}  crap... great time to lose connection
[09:35] {dino} gm
[09:35] {pragmatic} hmm, mirc misbehaving
[09:35] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:35] {Threei}  same here, not sure it was mirc
[09:36] {Threei}  could be central server
[09:36] {pragmatic} that is what I meant
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:36] {dino} nvda l .60
[09:36] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[09:37] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .10 break
[09:37] {Threei}  half lot
[09:38] {Threei}  if stays above .95
[09:38] {Threei}  target .40 - .45
[09:38] {Threei}  two partials
[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  HPQ  .20 break half lot
[09:45] {dino} cyou sm l .16 ave
[09:46] {Threei}  stop under .05
[09:46] {nemo} took .15
[09:47] {Threei}  no go
[09:47] {nemo} that was fun
[09:47] {Threei}  looks like rinse but...
[09:48] {Threei}  FCX, can't believe the alert got lost in disconnection
[09:48] {Threei}  look at the perfect cangaroo tail
[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  22 break half lot
[09:50] {Threei}  if stays above .85
[09:51] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:51] {Threei}  two partials
[09:57] {Threei}  back
[09:58] {dino} out nvda .72, +.12
[09:59] {dino} out cyou .76, +.60
[09:59] {Threei}  wtg
[09:59] {dino} ty
[10:01] {nemo} finl
[10:02] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break
[10:03] {Threei}  if stays under 33 for scalpers, 33.05 day traders
[10:03] {Threei}  scalpers 1:1
[10:04] {Threei}  day traders 1:1
[10:04] {Threei}  1:2
[10:04] {Threei}  someone breathe a word so I know this one did go through
[10:04] {z} yes
[10:04] {nemo} went trhough
[10:04] {Threei}  whew
[10:06] {Threei}  1:3, over and out
[10:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  HPQ  .80 break half lot
[10:08] {Threei}  .65 stop
[10:08] {nemo} oops
[10:08] {Threei}  ?
[10:09] {nemo} already gone
[10:09] {Threei}  it's right here
[10:09] {nemo} now it's back
[10:09] {Threei}  pulled back for your entry pleasure
[10:09] {Threei}  only let's make a stop .69 now
[10:10] {dino} cyou sm l .21 ave
[10:13] {Threei}  HPQ becomes insufferable
[10:14] {Threei}  trailing stop to .74
[10:14] {Threei}  almost want to scratch it
[10:15] {Threei}  ese and patience throw stones at each other windows today or what
[10:16] {Threei}  out
[10:17] {Threei}  good out eh?
[10:21] {RonS} wow, hpq screwed someone...
[10:21] {Threei}  ?
[10:22] {RonS} spike down to 19.92
[10:22] {Threei}  huh... I don't see it
[10:22] {Threei}  I see a priont on level 1
[10:22] {Threei}  but not on chart
[10:22] {Threei}  weird
[10:24] {nemo} BATS exchange down
[10:26] {thomcbell} yhoo
[10:27] {Threei}  so, excitmement of new CEO was worth a whole day rally on HPQ, lol
[10:29] {dino} chk ; .50
[10:30] {Threei}  feels to me, if no new headlines coming, next move is down
[10:30] {Threei}  market looks heavy and uninspired
[10:31] {Threei}  watching TZA for entry
[10:31] {Threei}  half lot
[10:31] {Threei}  .50 break
[10:31] {Threei}  ifstays above .35
[10:32] {Threei}  in
[10:32] {Threei}  nah, no go
[10:33] {Threei}  SPY has another leg up in it it seems
[10:33] {Threei}  half lot was right way to try it
[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .50 break
[10:37] {dino} out mw .12, +.38
[10:38] {Threei}  gj
[10:38] {dino} ty
[10:39] {dino} out aaww .68, +.38
[10:39] {Threei}  I can't trade this symbol
[10:39] {Threei}  too sentimental
[10:39] {dino} ?
[10:39] {Threei}  aaww? :)
[10:40] {Threei}  stop under .40 FCX
[10:40] {dino} ahh
[10:40] {Threei}  neither ahh
[10:40] {Threei}  eeww maybe
[10:40] {Threei}  or eeck
[10:40] {dino} out chk .63, +.13
[10:41] {Threei}  say, if you were a company... how much would ou have paid your analyst for this analysis:
[10:41] {Threei}  Ford Motor Co Company sales analyst: Sales may not decline much further
[10:42] {Threei}  ugh TZA
[10:44] {Threei}  market is patterness at the moment
[10:44] {Threei}  waiting game
[10:46] {dino} 07 all green
[10:49] {dino} brk/b l .26
[10:49] {dino} sm
[11:06] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[11:06] {Threei}  if stays under .60
[11:07] {nemo} vwap at .38
[11:08] {Threei}  invalidated anyway
[11:12] {Threei}  slow climb... great
[11:12] {Threei}  my least favorite market
[11:13] {dino} gaps above 11122, 2258, 1166
[11:22] {patience} good morning, have i missed much?
[11:22] {Threei}  not really
[11:25] {RonS} qotd:  The Mayans were wrong! Sign of the Apocalypse is when $FCX has a positive day! Say goodbye to your loved ones before it's too late!
[11:28] {Threei}  I dunno Ron... HOQ seems to be more reliable indicator
[11:28] {Threei}  KPQ
[11:33] {Threei}  isn't it fascinating... I can't type the symbol of this stock for the world of me
[11:34] {nemo} have a few shots...get rid of the dt's
[11:34] {Threei}  dt's?
[11:34] {nemo} delirium tremors
[11:34] {Threei}  oh
[11:34] {nemo} the shakes
[11:52] {nemo} iwm at pivot, vwap 08 below, spy .20 above vwap
[11:57] {thomcbell} dull tape
[11:57] {thomcbell} what do u think here vad?
[11:58] {Threei}  you are flattering me thinking I think
[11:58] {Threei}  it is dull... and slow, with no oace changes
[11:59] {Threei}  if you lok at pure price chart, FCX for instance, you'll see that double top and reversal looks clear
[11:59] {Threei}  but that's in retrospect only
[11:59] {Threei}  in reality, absence of pace changes makes it all but impossible to trade
[11:59] {thomcbell} right
[12:00] {Threei}  just one of those days that are not really favorable for trading
[12:00] {Threei}  kind of normal after two very hectic days
[12:03] {Threei}  my hope is, closer to eod people will want to define how they go into the weekend
[12:04] {Threei}  and that will lead to something readable
[12:10] {nemo} pot
[12:11] {nemo} mos..wtf
[12:14] {RonS} MOS - Price Fixing dismissed
[12:37] {dino}  zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[12:38] {Threei}  SLW collapse
[12:46] {Threei}  lookie here guys
[12:47] {Threei}  analogy with 1929, by Cashin
[12:47] {Threei}  The classic Thursday/Monday syndrome starts with the kind of action we saw yesterday. The markets open under pressure and selling accelerates in swelling volume. By early afternoon, there is a virtual stampede of selling. Then, later in the session, stocks stabilize a bit based on some reassurance.
[12:47] {dino} spike
[12:47] {Threei}  so far, looks like yesterday, right?
[12:47] {Threei}  now:
[12:47] {Threei}  The action on Friday (and Saturday in the case of 1929) is uneven, often ending choppily steady or somewhat weaker.
[12:47] {Threei}  so far, looks like today, right?
[12:48] {Threei}  and:
[12:48] {Threei}  Then on Monday, the trapdoor opens with liquidation and margin calls bringing tsunamis of selling.
[12:48] {Threei}  if nothing else, interesting historic parallel
[12:48] {dino} gut bet, close +100 today, c;ose +300 monday
[12:48] {Threei}  this spike is caused by this nonsenese headline:
[12:49] {Threei}  (GR) EU is said to be planning Greek debt buyback program open to all debt instruments and all investors - financial press
[12:49] {Threei}  idiots
[12:50] {Threei}  also:
[12:50] {Threei}  (GR) EU"s Barnier: It is possible for Greece to avoid default scenario; aiming to cut down the role of ratings agencies
[12:50] {Threei}  yeah, rating angencies is a problem
[12:50] {Threei}  go ahead and break your thermometer when it shows fever
[12:55] {Threei}  dino... trying to try on your gut feel... quite possible about today,
[12:55] {Threei}  buit when it comes to monday, my gut refuses to give any signal
[12:55] {Threei}  says, wait to see what happens over the weekend,
[12:56] {Threei}  with G7/G20/EU/EMU/AllOtherAbbreviations speaking
[12:58] {dino} agree its a coin toss, but with -900 pts in two days, looking for upside
[13:01] {Threei}  my gut feels a bit differently
[13:01] {Threei}  kind of:
[13:01] {Threei}  if market was ready to stage counter-rally,
[13:01] {Threei}  we would have seen much more decisive action today
[13:02] {Threei}  this reluctance doesn't bode well
[13:02] {Threei}  a lot of fear is around still,
[13:02] {Threei}  look how that headline failed to provide anything beyond 3 min of upward
[13:04] {dino} maybe, but my gut says up
[13:05] {Threei}  cool
[13:06] {Threei}  monday will be tagged as battle of the Guts
[13:06] {dino} lol
[13:07] {Threei}  wow SLW
[13:07] {Threei}  bounce time soon
[13:08] {dino} slv -4+
[13:08] {dino} agq -45
[13:09] {dino} hmmmm maybe i'm way off and today we close -100
[13:09] {dino} brb
[13:10] {nemo} gdx coming into Yearly Pivot, may see a bounce there for SLW
[13:15] {nemo} anybody notice on the multi-time frame charts where spy bottomed yesterday?
[13:16] {nemo} anybody notice where it topped out so far today?
[13:17] {patience} are these skill testing questions nemo?  on a friday...not a hope  :)
[13:18] {nemo} not if you call looking at a chart I provided a skill
[13:27] {dino} chk l .38
[13:28] {Threei}  SLW, one last leg down I think, befor it becomes finally bounce-ready
[13:31] {dino} wow, i did not realize the s/p is -18% from july highs
[13:32] {nemo} mercy
[13:32] {dino} 1355-1114
[13:39] {nemo} big cup and handle forming on the 15 minute spy
[13:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .65 break
[13:39] {Threei}  half lot let's do OK?
[13:40] {Threei}  if holding above .50
[13:41] {nemo} two sided I think
[13:41] {dino} out chk .52, +.14
[13:44] {Threei}  ok SLW... have spine?
[13:45] {Threei}  move your behind finally
[13:45] {nemo} market gonna' rip
[13:46] {Threei}  good boy, give us a few cents more
[13:46] {nemo} ehhh...wussed at the roof
[13:46] {Threei}  ok, first partial here
[13:46] {Threei}  1:1
[13:47] {Threei}  1:2
[13:47] {Threei}  told ya we will gte a good one when dust settles
[13:50] {Threei}  1:3 but without me
[13:50] {Threei}  oh well
[13:50] {Threei}  now, look at the chart and see where we got this thing
[13:50] {Threei}  isn't it perfect?
[13:53] {Threei}  yet no one is peaking to me...
[13:53] {Threei}  speaking
[13:53] {z} nice call, got me to green :)
[13:53] {Threei}  cool :)
[13:53] {Threei}  nice patience
[13:54] {Threei}  don't overtrade now, go only for the best of the best trades, and most of all:
[13:54] {Threei}  make sure that your stops and position sizes are calculated so you do NOT go home negative
[13:54] {Threei}  breakeven is worst case scenario
[13:54] {Threei}  I mean, it's Friday,
[13:55] {Threei}  your weekend mood is important
[13:55] {Threei}  negative Monday, whatever - whole week ahead to fix it
[13:55] {z} true T, good advice, thx
[13:55] {Threei}  negative Friday, well... weekend should be relaxing and pleasant
[13:56] {Threei}  fit trading as natural part in your life, so it doesn't become an aggravating experience
[13:56] {z} small shares + tight stops rest of way
[13:57] {dino} meli sm l ave .17
[14:24] {dino} stopped
[14:26] {nemo} .11 long tna?
[14:28] {nemo} spy might have to tag vwap first at .10
[14:32] {nemo} sfsg
[14:35] {dino} las t try meli sm l .09
[14:54] {dino} cern
[15:22] {nemo} slw
[15:23] {patience} still in it
[15:30] {dino}  out meli .29, +.20
[15:30] {patience} nice
[15:30] {dino} calling it a week, thx all
[15:30] {patience} have a good one
[15:30] {dino} u2
[15:31] {Threei}  take care dino
[15:42] {Threei}  from the daily chart point of view, pretty much "skipped day"
[15:42] {Threei}  market is in wait-and-see mode
[15:49] {thomcbell} so much for rrc
[15:50] {patience} ty vad, a very interesting week
[15:53] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:53] {Threei}  have a great weekend, see you Monday for another rather interesting week :)

Sep 22 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Perfect day for us, as often on down days - two small stops, a lot of nice wins. Handled the day in a very calm, disciplined fashion. Let's also do an update to our SPY video series:

Session Time: Thu Sep 22 00:00:00 2011

[08:39] {Threei}  wow
[08:39] {nemo} what wow?
[08:40] {nemo} btw...113.90 was semester S3
[08:40] {Threei}  well, I of course expected a gap down, but the size is wow
[09:01] {Threei}  oh btw
[09:01] {Threei}  as if all other troubles were niot enough,
[09:01] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 423K V 420KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.727M V 3.722ME
[09:03] {RonS} gm...copper got crushed overnight -6+%
[09:03] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:03] {Threei}  well.. what didn't? :)
[09:04] {RonS} ese's optimism?
[09:05] {Threei}  http://www.facebook.com/RealityTrader/posts/263845006983515
[09:12] {dino} gaps below ndx 2252
[09:12] {dino} then dji 10716, ndx 2044, s/p 1120
[09:17] {larisa} gm :)
[09:17] {Threei}  larisa!
[09:17] {Threei}  you know my question, right?
[09:18] {nemo} slw short
[09:18] {larisa} no, and not sure i want to :)
[09:18] {Threei}  ok, I'll try to refrain
[09:18] {Threei}  ok, I tried, no can do
[09:18] {Threei}  may I finally say Panic and Crash?? :)
[09:19] {nemo} you can even shout "Fire" in a crowded theatre
[09:19] {larisa} :)
[09:22] {dino} the contrarian in me says look for bottom to buy
[09:22] {patience} good morning
[09:24] {dino} we were -4% as of yesterdays close from friday close, so another 3-5% should do it, imo
[09:24] {Threei}  patience :)
[09:25] {nemo} [08:11] {nemo} We're already trading below daily S2 on spy 112-112.50 next area of support below, then below that 111-111.50 and then below that we have the 8/9 low
[09:25] {nemo} [08:13] {nemo}  and to be really pessimistic, the next convergence zone below those is 108.50 to 109.20 with some price support in the 109.80 area
[09:25] {Threei}  I for one am not going to guess on the bottom and trade it stock by stock and chart by chart
[09:26] {Threei}  with skipping first minutes of course
[09:27] {dino} i am looking for the 1120 gap
[09:28] {Threei}  that's critical support level
[09:29] {Threei}  it we consolidated a bit above it and breakl it, look out below
[09:30] {Threei}  ok guys, I don't have to warn you to be doubly careful today
[09:30] {Threei}  you know about old anf bold pilots
[09:31] {Threei}  let's skip first minutes of extra volatility and spreads
[09:31] {Threei}  one thing though looks tradeable
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  SVM  .60 b reak
[09:32] {ese} gm
[09:32] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:32] {Threei}  stop under .50
[09:32] {Threei}  target .80
[09:32] {Threei}  3 partials
[09:32] {Threei}  2 partails sorry
[09:32] {dino} 2252 filled
[09:34] {Threei}  we called FCX botomless chart" when it was about 41
[09:35] {ese} hmmmmmmmm nice job BEN!!!!!!!!! instilling that confidence in the market.....whatda guy
[09:35] {Threei}  Ben is an idiot, to be sure...
[09:35] {Threei}  but heck, what did we want him to do? pump even more money in this?
[09:36] {Threei}  (EU) There is a growing consensus among EU diplomats and officials that Greece will default while remaining inside the eurozone. - UK Telegraph
[09:38] {Threei}  and look where the next storm is brewing:
[09:38] {Threei}  (CH) There are growing fears that Chinese developers are losing access to funding and will be forced to slash prices - FT
[09:38] {Threei}  - In today's Asian session Greentown's Hong Kong-listed shares tumbled 16.2%, though the group said it was unaware of any investigation by the China Banking Regulatory Commission.
[09:38] {Threei}  - Other Hong Kong-listed developers that use trust financing include Agile Property, Evergrande, KWG and Shimao. All four groups fell by more than 10% in trading today.
[09:38] {Threei}  - Since June, all but the top state-owned developers have been shut out of international debt markets as bond prices have plunged, leaving China's nascent trust company sector as the lender of last resort.
[09:38] {Threei}  - In the past few weeks, property prices have started to dip in many cities, after a sharp decline in sales volumes.
[09:38] {Threei}  - In Shanghai, transaction volumes have slumped more than 50% y/y. As a result, developers have cut prices by up to 10% on nearly 150 residential projects in Shanghai, according to Chinese real estate site Soufun.
[09:38] {Threei}  I start feeling like a real prophet
[09:39] {dino} sina sm l .50
[09:41] {dino} stop sina -.31
[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .50 break
[09:42] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[09:42] {Threei}  regulate size according to your risk tolerance
[09:42] {Threei}  and in this situation you can't be too careful
[09:44] {Threei}  no go
[09:44] {Threei}  why didn't we just sell it above .60
[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .80 break half lot
[09:45] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[09:48] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:48] {nemo} lvs
[09:48] {Threei}  but watching for another trigger here
[09:48] {Threei}  possible double bottom forming
[09:51] {Threei}  nope
[09:54] {Threei}  for such huge gap, martkret trades in a somewhat subdues fashion
[09:54] {Threei}  subdued
[09:56] {dino} picking up speed now
[09:58] {Threei}  yeah but on downside
[09:59] {Threei}  ok, this setup looks more normal:
[09:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .50 break half lot
[09:59] {dino} thats what i saw
[09:59] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[10:00] {dino} nvda l .40
[10:00] {Threei}  yes... slower while trying to hold, accelerates when breaks down - more downside in cards
[10:00] {dino} rht sm l .75
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) JULY HOUSE PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.8% V 0.1%E
[10:01] {Threei}  *(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT ADVANCED CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -18.9 V -18.0E
[10:01] {Threei}  *(US) AUG LEADING INDICATORS: 0.3% V 0.1%E
[10:02] {Threei}  charts finally look like some bounce might develop
[10:02] {Threei}  need SPY to break 113
[10:02] {dino} meli sm l ave .20
[10:03] {Threei}  and if RIMM breaks .65, it has easy road to about .80
[10:03] {Threei}  so, let's try to partial
[10:03] {Threei}  unless you are convinced scalper
[10:03] {dino} out rht .15, +.40
[10:03] {Threei}  wtg
[10:03] {dino} ty
[10:04] {patience} good for you dino, still haven't waded into the sharks
[10:04] {dino} ;)
[10:04] {dino} hmmm rht continued up
[10:05] {dino} out nvda .60, +.20
[10:06] {Threei}  1:1
[10:06] {Threei}  half out, stop to .49
[10:07] {Threei}  1:2
[10:08] {dino} nvda l .51
[10:08] {dino} sina smr l .25
[10:09] {dino} 07 all green
[10:09] {Threei}  SVM 1:1
[10:10] {Threei}  RIMM taregt hit
[10:10] {Threei}  out in full
[10:11] {Threei}  SVM 1:2
[10:12] {Threei}  so far so good
[10:13] {dino} out sina .40, +1.15
[10:13] {dino} out meli .34, +1.14
[10:13] {patience} ok, it is dino's day
[10:14] {dino} just lucky
[10:15] {Threei}  beautiful
[10:18] {dino} aaww sm l .75
[10:18] {Threei}  so far, calm and organized carries the day
[10:18] {dino} cyou sm l ave .40
[10:19] {dino} 07 all green
[10:23] {dino} out nvda .70, +.20
[10:23] {dino} .19
[10:25] {dino} stop aaww .46, -.29
[10:30] {Threei}  OPEC members said to not be concerned about recent oil price decline as it is forecasted to be temporary - financial press
[10:30] {Threei}  - Members claim recent decline can be attributed to speculation
[10:30] {Threei}  so, let me get this straight
[10:31] {Threei}  price rise is justified, drop is speculation
[10:31] {Threei}  got it
[10:35] {dino} aaww sm l ave .31
[10:35] {Threei}  (GR) Former Fed Chair Greenspan: Greece is a few weeks away from defaulting without a new tranche of aid
[10:35] {Threei}  look who just can't shut up
[10:38] {dino} nvda l .51
[10:38] {Threei}  something lit fire under RIMM
[10:39] {Threei}  no news that I see
[10:44] {thomcbell} laggard on bloomberg radio
[10:45] {Threei}  yeah, watching her on tv
[10:45] {dino} brk/b sm l .70
[10:45] {nemo} fdx
[10:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .65 break
[10:48] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:50] {Threei}  aww
[10:50] {Threei}  shouldv'e just bought the pullback eh
[10:55] {Threei}  doesn't RIMM strike you as one of the least likely candidates to be green today?
[10:55] {dino}  ilmn too
[10:56] {RonS} csx the most curious to me
[11:01] {dino} rrc again
[11:02] {dino} out nvda .63, +.12
[11:04] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .50 break
[11:04] {Threei}  invalidated
[11:04] {Threei}  but watching for double top
[11:04] {nemo} invalidations ain't taking long
[11:04] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .60 break
[11:04] {Threei}  lol
[11:04] {nemo} rimm
[11:04] {Threei}  that's a good thing
[11:06] {nemo} if it invalidates likely go to .90 area
[11:07] {Threei}  it did
[11:08] {nemo} .79?
[11:09] {Threei}  short?
[11:09] {Threei}  no
[11:09] {Threei}  not yet
[11:09] {nemo} .80 was a big level
[11:09] {nemo} selling .79's
[11:10] {Threei}  let's it establish this level
[11:10] {Threei}  now it becomes a short trigger
[11:10] {nemo} rebid it
[11:10] {nemo} spy going long a bit here
[11:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .15 break
[11:11] {Threei}  target .45
[11:11] {nemo} short rimm
[11:12] {nemo} out above .81
[11:12] {Threei}  wow
[11:12] {Threei}  that's tight stop
[11:12] {nemo} what, look at offer
[11:12] {nemo} 507 lots at .81
[11:13] {Threei}  LVS stop .04
[11:13] {thomcbell} rimm classic chinook todayh
[11:13] {nemo} Helicopter, or wind
[11:13] {nemo} ?
[11:13] {Threei}  salmon
[11:13] {thomcbell} salmon swimming against the current
[11:13] {Threei}  :)
[11:13] {nemo} oh
[11:13] {Threei}  1:1 RIMM
[11:14] {nemo} .80 was the level, and that big offer put a lid on it
[11:15] {nemo} see .64?
[11:16] {nemo} if it drops .64 I might add, especially if it rebids and drops it again
[11:17] {nemo} nowtf
[11:18] {nemo} stop still above .81
[11:18] {Threei}  LVS defends .05 fiercely
[11:18] {Threei}  good boy
[11:19] {Threei}  half out
[11:19] {Threei}  stop to .09
[11:23] {Threei}  out
[11:24] {RonS} nemo i am s rimm .65...target?
[11:25] {dino} nvda l .45
[11:25] {nemo} I'm just reading levels on rimm chart isn't telling me much
[11:25] {RonS} thanks
[11:27] {nemo} I"d say .40 a possible bounce but closest pivot support is .14
[11:28] {RonS} out rimm .35 +.30
[11:28] {Threei}  nice
[11:29] {Threei}  great trading today guys
[11:29] {Threei}  calm, collected
[11:29] {Threei}  disciplined
[11:29] {Threei}  some'd say comatose, but they are just jealous
[11:30] {Threei}  hmmm... on second thought yeah, comatose is our normal state
[11:30] {thomcbell} nice work rimm - 2x
[11:30] {dino} gj ron
[11:30] {RonS} new copper low
[11:30] {RonS} txs...lucky...
[11:30] {dino} praa sm l .24 pulp
[11:35] {nemo} spy higher low?
[11:36] {Threei}  very hard to tell
[11:36] {thomcbell} and on a doji on the 15 min chart - somewhat interesting
[11:37] {RonS} just a europe closing bounce...imo
[11:37] {Threei}  I dunno guys
[11:37] {nemo} OALA EHA ATOS
[11:37] {Threei}  my guts say, we are to see more selling and new lows
[11:38] {RonS} hawaiian?
[11:38] {nemo} acronymian
[11:38] {patience} want to see the vix hit 50
[11:39] {RonS} kinky
[11:39] {patience} ty
[11:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .50 break
[11:46] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .40 break
[11:46] {nemo} scarecrow setup
[11:46] {Threei}  what did you call me?
[11:47] {nemo} you ever see the Wizard of OZ?
[11:47] {Threei}  he drops by sometimes, mostly when I am drunk
[11:48] {Threei}  stop is self-explanatory I believe
[11:48] {Threei}  target 1:3, three partials
[11:48] {nemo} in the movie they come across the scarecrow up on the pole and ask him which way to Oz.  He promptly crosses both so they point in opposite directions and says "That a way"
[11:49] {Threei}  must've been a trader
[11:53] {Threei}  1:1
[11:56] {Threei}  1:2
[11:56] {Threei}  stop .41 for the last part
[12:00] {Threei}  stop to .36
[12:03] {Threei}  test of the low is about to come
[12:03] {Threei}  IMO{ low will not hold
[12:06] {Threei}  there
[12:06] {dino} 10716 filled
[12:06] {Threei}  ugh, wanted to short LVS 46 break
[12:06] {dino} 10605 yearly low
[12:06] {Threei}  then thought it would be pushing it
[12:06] {dino} 1101 and 2029
[12:12] {nemo} tempted to go long spy/tna here
[12:15] {Threei}  (CH) Senator Brown (R-MA): China currency bill would treat currency manipulation as an unfair subsidy
[12:15] {Threei}  - Asserts that China currency manipulation is undermining US job creation.
[12:15] {Threei}  - Senator Schumer (D-NY): There is no question that China's trade practices are hurting the US economy.
[12:15] {nemo} nah...Bennie doesn't manipulate our currency
[12:20] {Threei}  ok, now that morning rush is over... welcome aboard, thomcbell
[12:21] {Threei}  RIMM, covered last piece
[12:21] {Threei}  close enough to target
[12:40] {dino}  l titn .76
[12:52] {dino} 07 green
[13:00] {dino} out brk/b .03, +.33
[13:00] {dino} out praa ave . 94, +.70
[13:01] {dino} out nvda .55, +.10
[13:14] {Threei}  great winning series
[13:14] {dino} out aaww .66, +.35
[13:14] {Threei}  (said he waking up)
[13:14] {RonS} lol, they had chubby checker on fast money last night talking about the twist...
[13:15] {RonS} the guy sounded very lucid...
[13:17] {RonS} good one:  http://tinyurl.com/3oq833o
[13:18] {Threei}  hehe
[13:26] {dino} stop titn -.27
[13:37] {Threei}  http://www.facebook.com/RealityTrader/posts/263948690306480
[13:45] {Threei}  TZA
[13:45] {Threei}  half lot long here
[13:46] {Threei}  got .55 and .60
[13:46] {Threei}  stop under .40
[13:47] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  21 break
[13:47] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[13:48] {Threei}  SPY new low
[13:49] {Threei}  no go TZA
[14:00] {Threei}  rinsed eh?
[14:03] {Threei}  RIMM 1:1
[14:05] {Threei}  how about that call for more lows
[14:08] {Threei}  as if anyone cares... back to coma
[14:18] {dino}   1120 filled
[14:22] {dino} rht sm l .85
[14:23] {Threei}  (EU) EU is said to be looking to accelerate the recapitalization of up to 16 banks
[14:23] {dino} out rht .35, +.50
[14:25] {dino} titn l .25
[14:29] {dino} ssys sm l .09 ave
[14:30] {Threei}  RIVO
[14:30] {Threei}  TIVO
[14:30] {Threei}  intergrates with facebook
[14:32] {Threei}  let's see full text
[14:32] {Threei}  (EU) EU is said to be looking to accelerate the recapitalization of up to 16 mid-tier banks - FT
[14:32] {Threei}  - European officials are said to be ready to speed up plans to recapitalize the 16 banks that came close to failing last summer's EU stress tests.
[14:32] {Threei}  - Seven are Spanish, two are from Germany, Greece and Portugal, and one each from Italy, Cyprus and Slovenia. The list includes Germanys HSH Nordbank and Banco Popolare of Italy.
[14:32] {Threei}  ***Reminder: On Sept 21st there was dealer chatter that the French govt might force some kind of recapitalization on its banking sector. Separate reports indicated France was expected to launch a state bank for small and medium-sized companies
[14:33] {Threei}  non-event IMO
[14:33] {nemo} to lend to whom?
[14:33] {Threei}  exsactly
[14:33] {nemo} WHAT!!!?
[14:33] {Threei}  they still treat it as liquidity crisis
[14:33] {Threei}  sorry
[14:33] {Threei}  eqzaktly
[14:33] {nemo} that spelling is a ahem...troutable offence
[14:33] {Threei}  right
[14:33] {Threei}  I am very very sorry
[14:37] {Threei}  doesn'tit amaze you?
[14:37] {Threei}  a few years intio crisis,
[14:37] {nemo} It's no worse than marriage
[14:37] {Threei}  and they still try to cure this and that, but not the major underlying reason?
[14:37] {nemo} political solutions not operational
[14:38] {Threei}  well, lunacy should end at some point... one would think
[14:38] {Threei}  it;s not a crisis of liquidity
[14:38] {nemo} Red pill or Blue pill
[14:38] {dino} titn stopped again
[14:38] {Threei}  it's not an economic cycle of overproduction
[14:38] {nemo} remember the chapter on sick-mindedness
[14:38] {Threei}  it's a credit bubble
[14:39] {nemo} and a debt problem
[14:39] {Threei}  severe credit cycle
[14:39] {nemo} yeah, there is no painless way out of this
[14:39] {Threei}  no
[14:39] {nemo} I also think we're reaching certain Malthusian resource limits
[14:39] {Threei}  but adding to debt as a cure?
[14:39] {nemo} only if curing is killing the patient
[14:41] {nemo} Funny...let's say the economy turns around, and actually gets strong.  Where do you think oil and gas prices will go?
[14:45] {Threei}  up
[14:45] {Threei}  why?
[14:47] {nemo} well, it can only go so far before it becomes a significant drag on economic activity and consumer spending.  Considering it's this high in the worst economic conditions since the Depression, there is relatively limited upside for economic activity
[14:47] {Threei}  right
[14:47] {Threei}  classic feedback-feedforward loop
[14:47] {nemo} And when you have an economy that has so much "discretionary" related economic activity, lots of that has to go by the wayside as more income is devoted to necessities
[14:48] {nemo} Frankly I think necessities will be redefined (I'm giving up boxers)
[14:48] {RonS} chnaging name to cj?
[14:48] {RonS} changing
[14:49] {nemo} commando j?
[14:49] {RonS} joe
[14:49] {Threei}  well, when such big share of population considers iphone necessity...
[14:49] {nemo} http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504784_162-20110214-10391705.html
[14:49] {Threei}  sooner or latyer this had to crash no?
[14:49] {nemo} well...Iphone maybe, but untethered communications is replacing wireline
[14:50] {Threei}  as if communication were necessity...
[14:50] {Threei}  I am very fine not communicating with anyone
[14:50] {nemo} So, anyway...when all those discretionary items (seen a grocery store lately) are pared back, how many more jobs disappear?
[14:51] {Threei}  yes... big part economy has been built on slack
[14:51] {nemo} me too...I catch hell...you didn't return my message...no...you didn't answer your phone...no
[14:51] {Threei}  on fuzzy need
[14:51] {nemo} fuzzy need...no need
[14:51] {nemo} manufactured need
[14:51] {Threei}  production and distribution of things that were demanded and consumed only because pkenty of easy credit sloshed around
[14:52] {nemo} and marketing is effective to brain dead humans...of which they are legion
[14:52] {Threei}  credit bubble bursted, enormous share of products went out of demand, taking jobs with the,
[14:52] {Threei}  simple as that
[14:52] {Threei}  bursted?
[14:52] {Threei}  yikes
[14:52] {nemo}   let's see you need food, housing, clothing, sex, guns, and alcohol  that's it!!!
[14:53] {Threei}  actually... all you need is guns :)
[14:53] {RonS} don't forget the bullets...
[14:53] {nemo} true, you can get the rest with them
[14:53] {Threei}  the rest will be given to you by those without them
[14:53] {nemo} that's implied Ron
[14:54] {nemo} oh, discretionary maybe, but I would like Psyllocibin Mushrooms and Peyote also
[14:54] {Threei}  such sophistication
[14:55] {nemo} ?  names dude
[14:55] {Threei}  I am a savage, Hlenlivet will do
[14:55] {Threei}  Glenlivet
[14:57] {dino} beer
[14:57] {nemo} that falls under "alcohol"
[14:57] {thomcbell} ah glen livet - 12 yr please
[14:57] {Threei}  12 or 18
[14:57] {Threei}  either works
[14:57] {Threei}  glenfiddich will do just as well
[14:58] {nemo} I remember having a bottle of either 100 or 150 year old Drambuie
[14:58] {nemo} what a difference, smooth as silk
[14:58] {nemo} As a sensitive aside...nobody faint because it's coming from me
[14:58] {dino} i have some 60 year old seagrams, drambuie, and crown
[14:58] {nemo} Remember last year when I was taking care of my dying uncle?
[14:58] {thomcbell} 18 a tad too rich
[14:58] {thomcbell} in flavor and register
[14:58] {nemo} Well, his wife brought me some of his wines (he was a wine nut)
[14:59] {Threei}  well... yeah
[14:59] {nemo} So, during the power outage from the hurricane I was drinking them...nothing else to do
[14:59] {Threei}  crap
[14:59] {nemo} One of them was a 89 Gewurztraminer from a Maryland Vineyard
[14:59] {Threei}  and we sat here feeling sorry for you
[14:59] {dino} no genorater?
06[15:00] * Threei unsorries those two after-hurricane day
[15:00] {nemo} I'm sitting there when I realized...no generator...I was with him visiting the vineyard on the day he bought that wine...so, I'm saving the bottle...great guy...brilliant man
[15:02] {Threei}  reminds me... I need t put away one nice bottle for the day of the big earthquake
[15:02] {Threei}  which they say is coming to the town near me
[15:02] {nemo} December 21, 2012
[15:02] {nemo} I have inside information the Yellowstone Caldera is going to erupt
[15:03] {RonS} iceland more likely...
[15:03] {Threei}  that one will put an end to it
[15:03] {nemo} that's going to sink
[15:03] {nemo} Watch, just our luck, France will survive
[15:04] {Threei}  no market crashes anymore if yellowstone goes off
[15:04] {nemo} No, nothing anymore
[15:04] {Threei}  ok, retest of the low is coming
[15:04] {Threei}  really can't tell whether we make new lows on hold around these levels
[15:05] {Threei}  my personal incination is, new lows
[15:05] {nemo} What'll really be a trip is we have a solar storm like the one in 1859...society ends that day
[15:05] {Threei}  but to call a trade on it here... tough
[15:05] {Threei}  we have two small stops
[15:05] {Threei}  many nice wins
[15:05] {Threei}  I consider today a perfect management of the crash
[15:07] {nemo} i'm getting long signals
[15:08] {RonS} ...from bunny?
[15:08] {nemo} silly...the voices in my head
[15:08] {dino} rht sm l .80
[15:08] {nemo} Bunny is AWOL today
[15:08] {nemo} bitch
[15:08] {nemo} can't get rid of her when she wants tortilla chips though
[15:10] {nemo} whoa...looks like the voices were right
[15:11] {nemo} bumper sticker I saw once:  The voices in my head told me to stay home from work and clean my guns
[15:11] {dino} out rht .10, +.30
[15:11] {RonS} gj
[15:11] {dino} t6y
[15:11] {dino} ty
[15:15] {dino} we are down 900+ pts since tuesdays high
[15:17] {nemo} oh oh, you feel a drop coming?
[15:17] {Threei}  I do
[15:17] {Threei}  for what a week already? :)
[15:17] {nemo} I mean, into the close
[15:18] {Threei}  I do
[15:18] {dino} dk
[15:18] {Threei}  kind of: not strognly enough to play short, but enough to stay away from long
[15:19] {nemo} http://www.autoblog.com/2011/09/21/gms-onstar-now-spying-on-your-car-for-profit-even-after-you-uns/
[15:21] {dino} out ssys -.03
[15:33] {nemo} we bottomed at S2 weekly
[15:39] {Threei}  yeah but did we bottom?
[15:40] {nemo} no, little bounce tomorrow, lower into weekend, rally next week
[15:41] {nemo} IMO OALA EHO ATAS
[15:42] {Threei}  new low is comiong'
[15:42] {Threei}  believe it or not
[15:42] {thomcbell} rht a beast
[15:44] {Threei}  not today of course
[15:44] {Threei}  but the look of things is not really "selling is exhausted"
[15:47] {dino} gap down open tomorrow then finish up 100
[15:47] {dino} gap down takes us to 1101
[15:49] {dino} hmm 150 pt rise
[15:49] {patience} just bought gis, agu, pot, mos,eca, su, fts, gdx, hgu, slw in long term account
[15:49] {dino} news?
[15:49] {Threei}  nope
[15:49] {Threei}  just some short covering I presume
[15:49] {nemo} short covering..bird in hand two in bush
[15:50] {dino} patience, i like the thinking
[15:50] {patience} dividends and long term trends   :)
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all, grat day
[15:59] {Threei}  great too
[15:59] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tmorrow
[15:59] {larisa} bye :)
[16:00] {dino} gn

Nemo's Findings - Mid-week update

SPY multi-time frame mid-week review week of 9/18

Click here to read the previous issue

These observations are made on the 5 minute time-frame at the end of each day. 

1.      Monday we gapped down on the open from the S2 daily/ S2 quarterly level

2.      and proceeded down to touch the 50% retracement of the July 2010 bottom, which became the low for the day.  The market then proceeded to a high around noon and retraced to fuzzy support at the weekly pivot point.

3.      After breaking above VWAP, SPY then gapped down just after 2:00 pm to test $.04 above the weekly pivot point before heading higher.  One might argue that this candle combination (big down candle followed by a larger green candle) may have been a stop buster.  Many programs will go long above the VWAP, by breaking below the VWAP, it may have triggered stops that then triggered buying just above the WPP that was the highest volume since before noon. Forming another swing high, SPY retraced to VWAP before...

4.      peaking at was, on that day at the confluence of a price action from 9/2 and the Quarterly S2 level (established July 1^st). It was also the same price level as an intermediary daily pivot level, that is...one which is in between (in this instance the Daily Pivot and Daily S1)

5.      Tuesday we open, after the overnight rollercoaster of the Italian downgrade, at the same level as #4 and continues to retrace to the daily pivot before proceeding to rally to the price high from last Friday.  Meandering about for the afternoon, levels began to drop

6.      until it found support, albeit only for 20 minutes at the Monthly Pivot Point where it retraced only to continue it's  descent until...

7.      reaching the 38.2% retracement of the 8/9 swing low where it loosely double bottomed and retraced before continuing it's downward movement toward the pivot point into the close

8.      Wednesday (Awaiting the Bearded one)  price action first found support at the break out area from Monday, which coincided with Monday's daily pivot.  (I don't put the daily pivots on the multi-time frame analysis because they, well, change daily...)

9.      Proceeding down to the Semester S2 support SPY bounced for 10 minutes until..

10.   it continued it's descent to the Weekly Pivot point, where it formed a double bottom, and rose to regain support of Semester S2 (o.k...it didn't  quite make it to the WPP, ;))

11.  After the Bernanke siesta, SPY continued downward bouncing at the 50% retracement of the July '10 bottom/daily S2, then retracing to VWAP...

12.  Before reaching a subjective price level at 118.10 that first began having significance back on the 29^th of August (arguably the 24^th), then retracing again to the WPP before...

13.  the final denouement that found it closing out between the 23.6% retracement from the 8/9 low and the Weekly S1.

Sep 21 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Who said FOMC days are not good for trading? Beautiful day with just one stop, and quite a few nice trades, including couple beauties on TZA. Do read the log to track those trades; as far as charts are concerned let me post an update for the SVM swing trade. As you see from updated chart below, a trade triggered at 7.25 today, confirming double bottom. Volume looks decent as well. What concerns me though is general market climate - end of day selling hit SVM based on general market selloff. So, we are in a situation where on its own, SVM looks ready to go up in positive or neutral market; whether it's capable of holding in negative or crashing one, remains to be seen.

Session Time: Wed Sep 21 00:00:00 2011
[09:14] {dino} gm all
[09:14] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {nemo} for you dino:  http://bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/rap_sheet/?p=14158&srvc=home&position=recent
[09:14] {nemo} piece of work that boy
[09:15] {ese} gm
[09:16] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:17] {Threei}  ese, meant to show you a stock you may want to monitor
[09:17] {Threei}  look at FITB daily
[09:18] {ese} theres a blast from the past
[09:18] {Threei}  thought you'd recognize it :)
[09:18] {Threei}  announced didvidend increase yesterday
[09:19] {ese} pretty solid base....and dividend to bot
[09:19] {ese} boot
[09:19] {Threei}  daiuly to me looks like 10.80 - 11 zone breakout for long play
[09:19] {ese} me as well
[09:19] {dino} that rex is a piece of work
[09:19] {Threei}  just make sure Europe doesn't collapse, lol
[09:20] {Threei}  that'll put a kibosh on financial stocks
[09:21] {ese} Greeks were talkin yesterday...finally something happening...German economists say double dip recession not likely in Germany.....things are lookin up
[09:21] {dino} i/m not as confident as you
[09:21] {ese} Greeks won't default looks like
[09:21] {Threei}  I really doubt that optimistic view
[09:22] {dino} gut says they must
[09:22] {nemo} define default
[09:22] {Threei}  they are trying to keep brave face
[09:22] {nemo} they'll just dress it up and call it something else...like leaving the euro
[09:22] {ese} it's "de" "fault" of the Greeks
[09:22] {Threei}  math just doesn't work, ese
[09:23] {Threei}  Greece can't repay debt, no matter what
[09:23] {Threei}  and look at Italy CDS spread, to see how much realism is under that optimism
[09:23] {ese} anyway.....articles in "Marketwatch.com" yesterday....
[09:24] {Threei}  http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
[09:25] {ese} link not working
[09:26] {Threei}  works for me...
[09:27] {Threei}  anyway, Italy 5-yr is at 513
[09:27] {dino} ok now that we have broken ese' optimism, back to work
[09:27] {Threei}  this is borderline "point of no return" IMO
[09:27] {ese} lol
[09:27] {Threei}  FCX is on watch as short candidate
[09:28] {ese} link working now
[09:28] {Threei}  remember the opening volatility
[09:28] {larisa} gm :)
[09:28] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:29] {Threei}  from the look of things, morning spike can take it into .40 - .50 territory where it's bound to be a short
[09:29] {Threei}  if it breaks down instead, let's wait
[09:30] {Threei}  total breakdown
[09:31] {Threei}  becomes bounce candidate
[09:31] {Threei}  half lot
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break
[09:31] {Threei}  stop under .15
[09:32] {Threei}  in
[09:32] {nemo} you can have it
[09:32] {Threei}  ty
[09:32] {Threei}  not ready yet, out
[09:33] {patience} ty fcx vad, haven't even had first cup of coffee yet, amazing
[09:33] {ese} L orcl .50
[09:34] {Threei}  .15 break second try
[09:34] {ese} sm
[09:34] {Threei}  if holding 37
[09:34] {Threei}  half lot!
[09:34] {Threei}  target .60
[09:34] {Threei}  half out
[09:34] {Threei}  stop to .10
[09:36] {ese} L orcl avg .42
[09:37] {Threei}  stop to .25
[09:38] {Threei}  out second half
[09:38] {nemo} you see that buy on the offer go buy at .35?
[09:38] {Threei}  +.23 and .10
[09:38] {nemo} 1275 lots
[09:39] {ese} stopped orcl .21-.22
[09:39] {ese} knew i shoulda waited
[09:39] {Threei}  bought into sharp spike, ese...
[09:40] {ese} ya
[09:40] {Threei}  ORCL is a very heavy stock, not really a momo that can easily continue after spikes
[09:41] {ese} not something i do normally ......thought taht with the earnings report it had 31 in it
[09:41] {Threei}  (US) Preview: Aug Existing Home Sales due out at 10:00ET
[09:41] {Threei}  **Consensus expectation: 4.75Me v 4.67M prior
[09:41] {Threei}  it very well may but not in one gasp
[09:41] {ese} agreed
[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break if stays under .30
[09:44] {Threei}  half out
[09:45] {ese} L orcl .25
[09:45] {Threei}  should lose 37 now
[09:45] {Threei}  stop to .25 for the balance
[09:47] {Threei}  ok FCX
[09:47] {Threei}  let's do it
[09:47] {Threei}  'cause you know... bees do it
[09:49] {Threei}  good boy
[09:50] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:50] {Threei}  stop to .21
[09:52] {Threei}  grrrrr
[09:52] {Threei}  targeted RIMM short on .25 break
[09:52] {Threei}  and missed it because of FCX bresakdown at the same moment
[09:54] {Threei}  let's trail last piece to .16
[09:55] {ese} out orcl 1/2  .35 +.10
[09:55] {ese} balance to .26
[09:56] {patience} in slw
[09:58] {Threei}  numbers are coming
[09:59] {dino} titn sm l .00
[09:59] {ese} orcl stopped balance .26
[10:00] {dino} cyou sm l .90
[10:00] {ese} hmmm shoulda rang the register at .40 would have been a nice day
[10:00] {Threei}  decent number
[10:00] {dino} gpc sm l .11
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) AUG EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.03M V 4.75ME
[10:01] {Threei}  closed FCX
[10:02] {dino} ssys sm l .00 thinny
[10:09] {Threei}  watching LVS
[10:10] {ese} L orcl .23
[10:11] {Threei}  FCX, did you have to shake out last portion before continuing down?
[10:11] {nemo} it traded to vwap and dropped
[10:11] {Threei}  I overtightened stop?
[10:12] {nemo} guess I should have opened my mouth, I saw VWAP up there, and that's a magnet for price action
[10:12] {ese} out 1/2 orcl .30 +.07
[10:12] {nemo} couldn't figure out how to work it into an insult
[10:12] {Threei}  ahhh
[10:12] {ese} balance stopped .24
[10:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .50 break
[10:13] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[10:13] {Threei}  oops
[10:13] {Threei}  sorry, confused symbols
[10:13] {Threei}  LVS
[10:13] {dino} fcx, cat, joyg, ilmn, major blood two days
[10:13] {Threei}  invalidated anyway
[10:14] {Threei}  bond market prices Greece default probability at 96%
[10:15] {dino} ilmn sm l .50
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break if holding .40
[10:16] {Threei}  FCX, what a bottmoless pit
[10:16] {Threei}  LVS, target 1:3
[10:16] {Threei}  standard procedure
[10:16] {ese} specially fcx dino
[10:16] {ese} with a gap dn no less
[10:17] {ese} sorry 2 gaps dn
[10:17] {ese} have that on my screen
[10:17] {ese} got a plan for those
[10:18] {Threei}  1:1
[10:18] {dino} understand
[10:19] {ese} lol
[10:22] {Threei}  probably time for FCX bounce
[10:24] {Threei}  got away... thought of .50 break but happened a bit too fast
[10:24] {Threei}  let's see if oulls back for entry
[10:24] {Threei}  OK
[10:24] {Threei}  drop under .50,
[10:24] {Threei}  holding above .40,
[10:24] {Threei}  .50 recross
[10:24] {Threei}  that would be my long setup from here
[10:26] {Threei}  here we go
[10:27] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:30] {dino} ssys stop -.33
[10:30] {dino} ilmn stop -.33
[10:31] {Threei}  oil inventories...
[10:31] {Threei}  *DOE CRUDE: -7.33M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +3.3M V +1ME; DISTILLATE: -875K V +1ME; UTILIZATION: 88.3% V 86.6%E
[10:31] {Threei}  USO through the roof
[10:31] {Threei}  lunacy
[10:32] {dino} joyg -8 in two days
[10:32] {nemo} bfd crude down, OPEC cuts forcast last week, refineries have switched over to producing heating oil and gas way up...too frickin' funny
[10:33] {Threei}  no kidding
[10:33] {Threei}  reaction to these weekly numbers is one of the most meaningless I see in the markets
[10:33] {nemo} have a feeling it's a Wile E. Coyote moment and will retrace
[10:33] {nemo} not to those making money on it
[10:33] {Threei}  or least meaningful?
[10:36] {Threei}  FCX doesn't follow market down anymore
[10:37] {Threei}  not ready to jump in, but watching carefully
[10:37] {nemo} tired from dropping for four days...cant keep up
[10:37] {patience} in long fcx
[10:37] {Threei}  hehe
[10:37] {Threei}  why rush
[10:37] {Threei}  no clear signal yet
[10:37] {patience} no kidding
[10:39] {dino} joyg sm l .90
[10:40] {ese} L orcl .20
[10:44] {ese} out 1/2 orcl .40 +.20
[10:45] {Threei}  missed another LVS setup
[10:45] {dino} gj
[10:46] {Threei}  .30 break.. see tose two dojis?
[10:46] {ese} out balance .49 +.29
[10:46] {ese} orcl
[10:46] {ese} tks dino
[10:46] {ese} that was a crap load of shs
[10:47] {ese} haven't done that for a bit
[10:48] {nemo} rrc
[10:48] {dino} t/o chatter
[10:49] {Threei}  ok, let's try to get LVS this time
[10:51] {ese} am outta here....have a great rest of the day.....
[10:51] {Threei}  one more leg down, consolidation between .10 and .20 and cross
[10:51] {patience} bye ese
[10:51] {Threei}  take care ese, gj
[10:51] {ese} cya vad patience
[10:51] {dino} cya ese
[10:51] {ese} dino
[10:51] {nemo} spy if doesn't hold .45 going to .20 area
[10:52] {nemo} this also spy premarket low
[10:53] {dino} ndx filled open gap
[10:56] {nemo} pre market low for IWM might get some tail wagging the dog here
[10:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .20 break if holding .10
[10:58] {patience} ok, who thinks the fed will open up their discount window wide today and lend money to banks at very favourable terms?
[10:59] {Threei}  1:1
[10:59] {nemo} how much more favorable can it get
[11:00] {dino} window is open
[11:00] {Threei}  1:2
[11:00] {Threei}  1:3
[11:00] {dino} gj
[11:00] {Threei}  ty
[11:00] {Threei}  we had what, 1 stop today?
[11:00] {patience} it is, but narrow elegibility gets loosened?
[11:01] {Threei}  the rest worked like charm?
[11:02] {dino} we are already flooding the euro block w/$. but yes i think twist happens, going loner term to lower long term rates
[11:08] {Threei}  midday update:
[11:08] {Threei}  The FOMC rate decision will arrive mid afternoon and investors are debating the chances that Helicopter Ben will greenlight Operation Twist. In Europe, equity markets are at their lows as traders worry about the banking system. Earlier this morning, Greece Finance Minister Venizelos warned that there is a danger that reform program might fail and Lloyd's of London said it had decided to pull peripheral euro bank deposits.
[11:09] {Threei}  Note that the August existing home sales hit their highest rate since early 2009, however analysts agree that the slightly better numbers were driven by a sudden jump in foreclosure and resale activity. Treasury markets are trending higher as money comes out of stocks and the US 10-year yield has slipped back toward 1.9%.
[11:09] {Threei}  I dunno where ese finds that optimism...
[11:10] {dino} nor i
[11:10] {Threei}  Overall the greenback remained range bound ahead of the FOMC decision later today. Dealers suspect the dollar could weaken further if the Fed announces any new QE measures. EUR/USD recovered from session lows during the New York morning aided by speculation that the French government might take measures to restore confidence in its banking sector coupled with ECB widening the range of debt instruments accepted as collateral.
[11:11] {Threei}  Dealers did note that the ECB action on collateral actually lowered its quality control. The market still awaiting Greece to outline its austerity measures negotiated with the Troika in recent days
[11:17] {Threei}  wow LVS
[11:17] {nemo} hpq
[11:17] {Threei}  how come I never forget last couple hundred shares
[11:18] {RonS} may be leo out at hpq
[11:19] {RonS} Bloomberg confirms boards wants CEO out $HPQ
[11:19] {Threei}  Hewlett-Packard Co Board evaluating firing CEO Apotheker in favor of Whitman as successor - financial press
[11:20] {Threei}  and this sends a stock up a dollar?
[11:20] {Threei}  and half
[11:29] {Threei}  SVM
[11:30] {Threei}  who saw a chart for a swing trade a few days ago, see it breaking out
[11:30] {Threei}  I posted quick update on facebook, will add after close
[11:30] {dino} ilmn sm l .00 wide
[11:38] {Threei}  White House said to have informed Congress of planned $5.3B upgrade of Taiwan's existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets
[11:38] {Threei}  - Northrop Grumman and Raytheon are said to be expected to compete to build new radar systems for Taiwan's F-16s.
[11:38] {Threei}  sigh
[11:47] {RonS} ilmn brightly burning...
[11:47] {nemo} wow....
[11:50] {dino} kicked me in the azz
[11:56] {nemo} see the link I posted for you this morning Dino?
[11:57] {dino} on rex? yes
[11:57] {nemo} I like the guy
[11:57] {dino} me too, he fits ny market
[11:58] {nemo} cracks me up, foot fetish, cries watching chick flicks...
[11:58] {nemo} He'd be alot of fun to drink with
[11:58] {dino} indeed, lol
[12:08] {patience} out fcx, nice run  +.71
[12:09] {Threei}  gj
[12:09] {patience} connection went down during trade, i hate that
[12:09] {Threei}  look at LVS chart and see where we got it long
[12:09] {Threei}  pretty much near the low of the day
[12:11] {dino} market stuck in range
[12:15] {dino} wow ilmn what a rinse job
[12:22] {dino} sm l ilmn .00, last try
[12:27] {Threei}  Moody BAC downgrade
[12:27] {Threei}  kills the market
[12:29] {Threei}  nice jub Buffet
[12:29] {Threei}  job
[12:30] {RonS} qotd:  why should i care about a buffet tax. i never eat at one.
[12:31] {Threei}  lol
[12:31] {dino} lol
[12:36] {dino} bac preferred getting hit
[12:39] {nemo} I find the coincidence between the downgrade and BennieB intriguing
[12:40] {Threei}  think setting up the scene for Fed action?
[12:40] {nemo} whack the longs, come in and buy
[12:42] {patience} out of anv.to    i forgot how wingy some of these stocks can be to trade....too much work    +.62
[12:48] {nemo} hpq again
[12:48] {Threei}  reconsiders spin-off of PC business
[12:52] {patience} sold everything but POT
[12:52] {patience} excellent day...will sit and wait
[12:58] {Threei}  Moody's cuts WFC
[12:58] {Threei}  and C
[12:58] {Threei}  they are on the roll today
[12:59] {Threei}  a roll?
[12:59] {Threei}  just roll?
[12:59] {Threei}  why do you english speakers need those a and the, no idea
[13:00] {RonS} freakin a, eh?
[13:00] {Threei}  the freakin a
[13:02] {dino} ahole, lol
[13:05] {dino} giddy-up
[13:19] {dino} joyg to .84
[13:24] {dino} out .96, +1.06
[13:25] {RonS} gj
[13:25] {patience} very nice
[13:26] {Threei}  great one
[13:26] {dino} ty took hours
[13:26] {patience} very patient  :)
[13:27] {dino} ;)
[13:28] {Threei}  Coolest searching device ever? Your toe! Always able to, somehow, find furniture even when it is pitch black
[13:29] {dino} yeah, been there
[13:32] {Threei}  so, 74% of ecinomists expect operation Twist, 61 says it won't work
[13:33] {Threei}  the rest 39 are clueless I guess
[13:54] {Threei}  total stall
[13:55] {patience} what time do we hear anything?
[13:56] {dino}  2:15
[13:56] {patience} ty
[14:00] {nemo} regn
[14:01] {dino} regn spike
[14:02] {nemo} dino...look above
[14:02] {dino} ilmn out .30, +.30
[14:02] {Threei}  halt
[14:02] {nemo} that sucks
[14:02] {patience} nice day for you dino
[14:02] {dino} average, had few stops earlier
[14:05] {nemo} indexes look like they're setting up for screaming longs
[14:07] {Threei}  here is summary for expectations:
[14:07] {Threei}  http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-sep-21-2011#comment-95641
[14:07] {Threei}  too long to paste it all here
[14:07] {dino} va drops avastin
[14:08] {Threei}  passive twist, active twist... as if all these monetary tweaks really can change the ways of economy
[14:08] {Threei}  more they tweak, worse it gets
[14:08] {Threei}  get the ^%#* out of the way
[14:09] {dino} john galt i presume
[14:09] {Threei}  :)
[14:10] {nemo} it's between a rock and a hard place...they get out of the way, and it's gonna' get rocky sooner, they don't get out of the way, it get's rocky a little later
[14:10] {Threei}  but there is a difference in the degree of rockiness
[14:10] {Threei}  the later it comes the rockier it gets
[14:10] {nemo} I don't think so...I think sooner or lated serious civil unrest
[14:11] {dino} they stretch it out to save themselves, not do what is needed
[14:11] {nemo} I don't think it can be avoided
[14:11] {patience} bought td bank
[14:13] {RonS} regn 7 mil sh short...lit up...
[14:13] {dino} right now they are fighting over who pays for lunch
[14:17] {Threei}  fashinably late?
[14:17] {Threei}  +o
[14:20] {RonS} who does the clam think he is?...O?
[14:20] {Threei}  lol
[14:20] {RonS} soory...0
[14:22] {Threei}  potato, potatoe
[14:23] {dino} out
[14:23] {dino} 07 green
[14:23] {Threei}  ok
[14:23] {Threei}  here it comes
[14:24] {dino} now red
[14:24] {RonS} twisted sister
[14:25] {Threei}  active twist
[14:25] {Threei}  market says eeeeck
[14:25] {RonS} chubby checker to head operation...
[14:25] {dino} what'd he do?
[14:26] {Threei}  Fed to buy $400B in long term treasuries (6-30 year range) by end of June 2012
[14:28] {RonS} copper tanked
[14:28] {dino} pru sm l .79
[14:29] {RonS} wow, three dissenters
[14:30] {dino} re-liquify
[14:44] {dino} meli sm l .10
[14:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .35 break
[14:49] {Threei}  half lot
[14:49] {Threei}  invalidated
[14:50] {Threei}  .20 break
[14:53] {nemo} spy likely going for .20, look for tza there
[14:55] {Threei}  half out
[14:55] {Threei}  stop to .15
[14:56] {Threei}  out in full
[14:56] {Threei}  +.40
[14:59] {patience} nice
[15:00] {dino} gj
[15:00] {Threei}  ty
[15:05] {dino} out meli .15, +1.05
[15:16] {Threei}  nice!
[15:17] {dino} ty
[15:17] {patience} very nice
[15:21] {dino} ty
[15:29] {Threei}  so... last plunge is coming?
[15:29] {patience} i'm lost here, can't tell
[15:29] {Threei}  half lot long TZA .90
[15:29] {Threei}  if stays abovce .75
[15:30] {dino} gut says up
[15:30] {Threei}  valid still
[15:31] {Threei}  in
[15:32] {Threei}  half out
[15:32] {Threei}  stop to .85
[15:34] {Threei}  I don't remember having such a nice day on FOMC date
[15:34] {patience} i agree
[15:34] {dino} lod
[15:34] {Threei}  boom TZA
[15:34] {dino} whippy
[15:35] {dino} 11246 gap filled
[15:35] {Threei}  out +.60
[15:36] {dino} nice
[15:38] {dino} hmmm so far you are right, plunge
[15:39] {Threei}  panic
[15:39] {Threei}  crash
06[15:39] * Threei slants at larisa
[15:40] {Threei}  -(IT) Italy confirms FY11 GDP target cut to 0.7% from 1.1%
[15:55] {Threei}  what an ugly end
[15:56] {patience} should be interesting overnight trading
[15:56] {Threei}  ok guys, I believe we handled today beautifully
[15:56] {patience} ty vad
[15:56] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:57] {dino} cya
[15:57] {larisa} bye :)

Sep 20 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Positive day but we haven' played it to its full potential - reversal and drop closer to end of day was one of those things that we saw coming and haven't found the right way to benefit from.


Session Time: Tue Sep 20 00:00:00 2011
[09:10] {Threei}  don't tell me... it's morning again?
[09:11] {patience} it starts earlier every day
[09:11] {Threei}  sigh
[09:13] {dino} gm all
[09:13] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:15] {RonS} gm everyone
[09:15] {patience} good morning Ron
[09:16] {Threei}  gap up despite Italy downgrade and China banks stopping swap lines with Europe - genuinely bullish, or denial to be disillusioned, or just this particular event is priced in (Italy downgrade was pretty much given)?
[09:16] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:20] {dino} imo italy a given, china a surprise
[09:20] {Threei}  my feeling too
[09:20] {RonS} patience up early is the surprise...
[09:21] {RonS} :)
[09:21] {Threei}  well, ese broke her windows yesterday with his bricks...
[09:21] {Threei}  she is on guard today
[09:23] {Threei}  JEF CEO: August performance was 'brutal'; September trading results have improved - conf call comments
[09:23] {Threei}  I'd say, we did considerably better than jefferies
[09:25] {patience} painted my deck and side panels yesterday Ron.  Couldn't sleep my body is so sore from it so i might as well trade   :)   besides i took some big positions yesterday, wanted to see them pre-market.  
[09:26] {larisa} gm :)
[09:26] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:26] {larisa} vad :)
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:31] {Threei}  half lot
[09:31] {Threei}  stop above .90 scalpers, 40 day traders
[09:33] {Threei}  out
[09:33] {Threei}  morning volatility is here
[09:34] {Threei}  letting it spike to look for the reversal
[09:34] {Threei}  probably above .30
[09:35] {Threei}  ideally, spike into .30 - .40 range with short setup on .30 recross while stays under .40
[09:35] {dino} 07 all red
[09:36] {Threei}  patience... your turn to throw stones in ese's windows
[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .30 break half lot
[09:37] {Threei}  half out
[09:37] {Threei}  General Motors Corp Notes Chevy Volt electic vehicle will not qualify for Chinese govt incentive programs - press
[09:37] {Threei}  because it's not produced in china?
[09:38] {Threei}  out RIMM in full
[09:46] {Threei}  (GR) IMF comments on Greece: Country remains fully commited to staying in the Euro Zone
[09:46] {Threei}  sure
[09:48] {Threei}  tna
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .40 break
[09:49] {Threei}  half lot
[09:49] {nemo} .19 stop?
[09:49] {Threei}  .25
[09:49] {Threei}  half out
[09:50] {Threei}  stop to .35
[09:50] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:51] {nemo} look for IWM bounce around .00 and spy around .05
[09:52] {Threei}  wanted TZA entry but closer to .60... it bottomed out a bit too high
[09:52] {nemo} spy and iwm at pivots
[09:52] {Threei}  daily?
[09:52] {nemo} weekly iwm daily spy
[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break
[09:54] {Threei}  if stays above .70 of course
[09:56] {Threei}  1:1
[09:59] {Threei}  out in full
[10:00] {dino} gj
[10:00] {Threei}  ty
[10:00] {Threei}  3 for 3 so far
[10:00] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[10:00] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[10:01] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:01] {nemo} gold going through the roof
[10:01] {patience} oh happiness
[10:01] {dino} gpc sm l .48
[10:02] {Threei}  gold action tells me market in no way accepted that Europe situation becomes healthier
[10:02] {nemo} that's a big "Duh!"
[10:03] {Threei}  hey... don't trivialize my observations, they are trivial without your help {G}
[10:03] {Threei}  Captain Obvious, remember?
[10:04] {Threei}  the question raised because of bullish opening despite Italy
[10:04] {nemo} frickin' guineas
[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM.15  break
[10:09] {Threei}  half lot
[10:09] {Threei}  with adding another half on .10
[10:09] {Threei}  stop .25 for the first half
[10:09] {nemo} target 0?
[10:09] {Threei}  the way daily looks, pretty much, lol
[10:10] {dino} gpc stop -.30
[10:11] {Threei}  ideally we stay under .10 and .21 becomes a stop for a full lot
[10:11] {Threei}  under .20, sorry
[10:14] {Threei}  stopped
[10:16] {Threei}  (IT) S&P: Italy cannot solve its debt problems through privatization of assets
[10:16] {Threei}  through what then?
[10:17] {nemo} cutting fiscal spending
[10:17] {Threei}  that only takes care of not increasing the debt going forward
[10:17] {Threei}  S&P is talking about paying down existing
[10:18] {Threei}  and says selling assets is not going to suffi ce
[10:18] {nemo} if you spend less than you take in, you pay stuff down
[10:18] {Threei}  yeah... at this scale and rate, in the next 3000 years
[10:18] {Threei}  meanwhile rollover dates come
[10:18] {Threei}  and money isn't there
[10:19] {Threei}  and selling assets doesn't cover it
[10:19] {Threei}  see mine ( and S&P's) point? :)
[10:22] {Threei}  grrr
[10:22] {Threei}  RIMM rinse
[10:23] {Threei}  here is the number:
[10:23] {Threei}  - According to Goldman Sachs, Italy has to rollover about $380B in debt by the end of 2012.
[10:24] {Threei}  what S&P is saying, Italy cannot meet that by privatization
[10:24] {dino} mkt saying it doesn't matter so far today
[10:24] {Threei}  that was my morning question...
[10:24] {Threei}  what is with this strength - priced in? denial?
[10:25] {dino} today is key word
[10:27] {patience} locked in my profit with gdx and hgu....will just look for another entry point
[10:28] {dino} 1216 gap
[10:32] {dino} nflx -70 pts 4 days
[10:32] {Threei}  and shows no signs of bottoming
[10:32] {Threei}  sic transit gloria mundi
[10:40] {dino} gpc l .60
[10:47] {dino} out gpc .75, +.15
[10:48] {Threei}  easy money
[10:48] {Threei}  my favorite kind
[10:59] {dino} 1216 filled
[10:59] {Threei}  RIMM is losing support... short entry is not really obvious though
[11:03] {Threei}  ugh
[11:03] {Threei}  hate it when it rinses us, then works
[11:04] {dino} hls l .29
[11:06] {nemo} just got rinsed on MCP stopped out for the day
[11:12] {dino} cat sm s break .60
[11:13] {Threei}  hard to distinguish SPY action here
[11:13] {nemo} at trend line for the day
[11:13] {Threei}  looks reversing, but this kind of reversals proves to be very elusive lately
[11:14] {Threei}  I am not fond of idea to short it at will
[11:15] {dino} cat bstop is .81
[11:21] {dino} out hls .41, +.12
[11:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .05 break
[11:26] {Threei}  if holding 40
[11:27] {dino} cov cat .30, +.30
[11:27] {Threei}  nice one
[11:28] {dino} ty
[11:28] {Threei}  despite extremely tight stop, target is fairly solid on FCX, about .35
[11:28] {Threei}  three partials
[11:31] {Threei}  no go
[11:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
[11:45] {Threei}  stop under .60
[11:47] {Threei}  sigh
[11:47] {Threei}  why did't we go vback to sleep after first 3 wins?
[11:53] {Threei}  anyone breathes at all?
[11:53] {Threei}  or am I talking to myself?
[11:54] {patience} just in a scalp in hgu
[11:54] {RonS} hear here 3i
[11:55] {patience} out, ok, time for a run, awesome day
[11:56] {Threei}  one more dive TZA, and should be scalpable
[11:56] {Threei}  from around .10
[11:57] {nemo} unless this is the break of a bull flag
[11:57] {nemo} if we break resistance, 123.80 next target on spy
[11:58] {RonS} meli dino...
[12:01] {Threei}  nice TZA bounce but .20 wasn't really all that clear to me as an entry
[12:06] {dino} yeah
[12:08] {Threei}  this one seriously got away, uh?
[12:10] {dino} nemo, what do you see? down?
[12:11] {dino} sm s brk/b .34
[12:11] {nemo} dead people
[12:11] {dino} me too, lots of them
[12:11] {nemo} down to the 121.25 area
[12:12] {nemo} we
[12:12] {nemo} We
[12:12] {nemo} we're at premarket high at .38
[12:12] {dino} gut has us going to flat
[12:13] {nemo} .25 area has Monthly Pivot, VWAP and r1
[12:13] {dino} ty
[12:18] {Threei}  have to try TZA again
[12:18] {Threei}  .75
[12:19] {Threei}  SPY loss of .50 should do it
[12:19] {RonS} ...has anyone been looking at Dr. Copper? ...big negative divergence w/ this market...check out jjc daily
[12:19] {dino} predicting recession
[12:24] {Threei}  changing to .70 break
[12:27] {Threei}  still valid
[12:27] {Threei}  barely
[12:27] {Threei}  but
[12:27] {nemo} when's the Fed meeting start?
[12:28] {nemo} ya' know you could by a lot of both tza and tna and wait
[12:28] {Threei}  we will hear from them tomorrow
[12:28] {Threei}  2:15
[12:30] {dino} this twist idea may be holding up mrkt
[12:32] {Threei}  1:1
[12:37] {Threei}  out in full
[12:37] {Threei}  needed this win top reconsolidate morning gains
[12:44] {Threei}  underestimating potential of TZA today
[12:54] {RonS} V and MA made moves...axp next?
[12:55] {RonS} copper at low 3.72
[13:04] {dino}  brk/b stop -.02
[13:06] {Threei}  59% View Hillary Clinton Favorably
[13:06] {Threei}  buyers regret/
[13:07] {dino} ilmn drop
[13:09] {dino} sm l .95
[13:14] {dino} stop -.22
[13:18] {dino} ilmn sm l .45
[13:27] {dino} out ilmn .05, +.60
[13:28] {dino} cstr drop
[13:30] {Threei}  (GE) Germany Chancellor: Concept of 'economic growth at all costs' should end, was part of the cause of the recent debt crisis
[13:30] {Threei}  - Current crisis provides great opportunity to put debts in sustainable paths
[13:30] {Threei}  FITB
[13:30] {Threei}  didvidend increase
[13:31] {Threei}  nice daily...
[13:31] {Threei}  ese might be interested
[13:31] {Threei}  FITB used to be his stock
[13:31] {Threei}  in case senility takes over, someone remind me to tell him tomorrow when he is in
[13:33] {dino} nope
[13:41] {dino} cstr sm l .75
[13:42] {dino} stop -.30
[13:44] {dino} rinsed
[13:58] {dino} tzoo drop
[14:02] {nemo} big iwm volume this minute
[14:03] {nemo} guess I shoulda taken whichever way it went off that minute
[14:04] {Threei}  TZA spiked too
[14:04] {nemo} that was my point, that really high volume candle on IWM, take it whichever way it goes off of that
[14:05] {Threei}  lol... Brasil denies help yo EU
[14:05] {Threei}  as if iy was ever viable option
[14:11] {dino} joyg lod
[14:13] {dino} cyou sm l .00
[14:16] {dino} joyg sm l .00
[14:30] {nemo} wonder if we're getting into the pre-Fed chop
[14:30] {dino} y imo
[14:31] {dino} easing thru twist idea is supposed to be good for markets
[14:32] {dino} joyg stop -.26
[14:33] {Threei}  (US) PIMCO sees Fed funds market as negatively impacted if the Fed decides to cut interest paid on excess reserves (IOER) at meeting
[14:33] {Threei}  - PIMCO notes that a cut of the interest on excess reserves could hurt earnings margins for banks; PIMCO sees likelihood that Fed may instead choose to trim the IOER slightly rather than imposing a full cut from 25bps
[14:33] {Threei}  that was twisted idea anyway
[14:34] {dino} that and going longer term vs short to lower rates
[14:34] {dino} joyg messed up today
[14:35] {nemo} .30 vwap on spy .25 pivot on iwm, probably a bounce in that proximity
[14:36] {dino} ilmn sm l .51
[14:49] {Threei}  I'd expect hard pullback on TZA here, into .50 - .60 area where I'd be a buyer
[14:50] {nemo} spy sitting on monthly pivot iwm .10 above the Weekly pivot
[14:54] {nemo} this long setup is almost too obvious
[14:55] {nemo} hahh...guess it was so obvious it should have been taken
[14:55] {dino} out ilmn .91, +.40
[15:00] {dino} sina blood
[15:06] {Threei}  (GR) Troika officials said to plan to return to Athens in Oct to complete Greek review - press
[15:06] {Threei}  yikes
[15:06] {dino} ndx red
[15:06] {Threei}  sends market back in uncertainty
[15:07] {Threei}  positive day but i can't say i am happy with how i played it
[15:07] {dino} same here, bit light
[15:17] {patience} in pot and hgu
[15:19] {dino} ilmn sm l .35 stop .19
[15:22] {dino} stop
[15:23] {nemo} .11 tna would be a good bet
[15:23] {nemo} or right here spy
[15:24] {nemo} nope
[15:25] {Threei}  remarkable weakness
[15:27] {Threei}  this is what I am really unhappy about: I weaited for this weaknedd, believed it had to come, yet haven't found right entry
[15:29] {Threei}  I guess that slow climb and then really long consolidation near the high kind of lulled me
[15:31] {dino} gr
[15:34] {Threei}  take a look at Italy CDS
[15:34] {Threei}  http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
[15:34] {Threei}  this is closing in on point of no return
[15:36] {Threei}  GR news dinop
[15:36] {Threei}  Goodrich Corp UTX said to be in late stage discussions on final terms of deal with Goodrich - financial press
[15:41] {patience} added anv, xgd, iag
[15:42] {Threei}  SVM ginishes with nice strenght
[15:42] {Threei}  finishes even
[15:42] {Threei}  remember swing trade chart
[15:42] {dino} tzoo blood
[15:46] {Threei}  wow
[15:47] {Threei}  who would have thought SPY goes red by the end of the day
[15:47] {Threei}  good... we should get some good ones tomorrow morning, befofe market goes dead in waiting for Fed
[15:47] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:47] {Threei}  have a great evening
[15:47] {larisa} bye :)
[15:48] {Threei}  see you tomorrow bright and early
[15:48] {Threei}  or how you look in the morning
[15:50] {patience} added gg, more gdx - long term account
[15:51] {patience} ty vad