June 15 2012

Tough week and tough end to it, ended the day in negative. Really liked just one day, the rest was one whipsaw after another with rare good trades sprinkled here and there.  Happens sometimes - fortunately not very often.

Session Time: Fri Jun 15 00:00:00 2012

[09:07] {Threei}  Germany's Chancellor Merkel says Europe should simply start sticking to its promises

[09:07] {Threei}  good idea... now if the only could

[09:08] {scottie} gm

[09:08] {Threei}  scottie :)

[09:12] {Threei}  some disconnects in the opening quotes

[09:12] {Threei}  SPY red, FCX and SLW green

[09:12] {Threei}  rare sight

[09:13] {scottie} ?? my spy is green (+.52)

[09:13] {Threei}  hmmm... something with y quotes?

[09:14] {nemo} http://devour.com/video/uncle-drew/

[09:14] {Threei}  133.3?

[09:14] {nemo} must not have adjusted for the dividend

[09:14] {scottie} yes, with close at 132.78

[09:15] {Threei}  why do I show close 133.49

[09:15] {thomcbell} dividend

[09:15] {Beau} good morning you all

[09:16] {Threei}  beau :)

[09:16] {Threei}  so, which is right?

[09:17] {scottie} my numbers are incorrect

[09:17] {scottie} on my graoh yesterday's close is at 133.49

[09:17] {scottie} graph

[09:20] {dptl} gm

[09:20] {Threei}  dp :)

[09:23] {ese} gm

[09:23] {Threei}  ese :)

[09:25] {dino} gm

[09:26] {Threei}  dino :)

[09:26] {ese} morning vad dino

[09:26] {Threei}  ese, dcc pls

[09:26] {Threei}  so... with big question mark hanging over this weekend's Greek election, which way is market going to bet

[09:28] {Threei}  I find I am able to argue both sides of the argument equally, lol

[09:29] {nemo} completely hedged

[09:29] {Threei}  let's be nimble for now

[09:29] {Threei}  see which way it leans

[09:29] {Threei}  I expect confusion to be major theme

[09:30] {dino} i don't get it, europe is basically going bankrupt and markets are going up

[09:30] {nemo} we're going bankrupt too

[09:30] {Threei}  in the process of falling apart it will inject a lot of newly created liquidity... that's marlet bet

[09:30] {nemo} if everybody is bankrupt, is anybody bankrupt?

[09:31] {nemo} I love anarchy

[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .12 break hl

[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  28 break hl

[09:33] {nemo} spy riding WR1

[09:33] {Threei}  1:1 if you got it

[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  34 break

[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .90 

[09:35] {Threei}  Invalidated  

[09:36] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Liikanen (Finland): Euro zone nations cannot cede too many powers to the center, need to maintain control over their own budgets- Euro zone needs more national liability and a better euro framework.

[09:36] {Threei}  then he had a shot of that great vodka called finland, and added: - Crises usually last ten years, the euro zone crisis isn't over yet.

[09:37] {Threei}  EMU is 12 years old

[09:37] {Threei}  10 years of crisis? lol

[09:37] {nemo} they live that long

[09:37] {Threei}  change FCX trigger to .90 break

[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .85 

[09:37] {thomcbell} Watching for double top to develop on FB 

[09:38] {Threei}  you can short it?

[09:38] {Threei}  still not available I think

[09:38] {thomcbell} oh i suppose not 

[09:38] {nemo} frickin' nav

[09:39] {Threei}  no go FCX

[09:40] {nemo} fcx here

[09:40] {dino} fosl sm s .26

[09:41] {dino} stop .54, -.28

[09:42] {Threei}  RCL

[09:42] {Threei}  put on radar for pullback entry

[09:43] {nemo} fcx 34 offer

[09:43] {Threei}  ideally around .25

[09:43] {nemo} addeded .01

[09:44] {Threei}  Officials: US to stop deporting and grant work permits to younger illegal immigrants

[09:45] {Threei}  because we have labot shortage, right?

[09:45] {nemo} right

[09:45] {Threei}  labor

[09:45] {nemo} this country is so weird

[09:45] {Threei}  RCL no pullbavk

[09:45] {nemo} stop to .94 on fcx

[09:46] {Threei}  let's see if it forms reversal instead

[09:47] {Threei} Short Setup: RCL  .55 break

[09:47] {Threei}  If holds  .65 

[09:47] {nemo} taking half fcx here .05

[09:47] {Threei}  target 1:2

[09:47] {Threei}  good one nemo

[09:47] {nemo} ty

[09:48] {Threei}  wait out first break and rinse, take second setup... I should do that more often these rinsing days :)

[09:48] {nemo} quad witching hour no less

[09:48] {nemo} hurry up and wait day

[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: CCL  65 break

[09:49] {Threei}  If holds  .70 

[09:49] {nemo} stop to .98

[09:50] {thomcbell} QCOM 

[09:51] {Threei}  let's trail RCL to .61

[09:51] {thomcbell} seemingly easy short but such a quick setup 

[09:51] {ese} L RIO .51

[09:51] {Threei}  out

[09:52] {thomcbell} long setup ETN - 39.64 break if holding 39.54

[09:52] {nemo} iwm looks like breakout

[09:54] {nemo} oh well

[09:54] {dino}  fosl break .00 sm s

[09:54] {thomcbell} etn invalidated

[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .30 break hl

[09:54] {ese} might take that bet nemo

[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .20 

[09:55] {Threei}  what was that?

[09:55] {nemo} iwm breakout

[09:55] {thomcbell} long setup gld 157.81 break if hlding 157.70? Vad?

[09:55] {nemo} but, not yet

[09:55] {ese} ya

[09:55] {Threei}  *(US) JUN PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 74.1 V 77.5E

[09:55] {dino} 07 all red

[09:55] {scottie} tna -.23, that was fast

[09:56] {Threei}  chart looks right tbell

[09:56] {Threei}  but you see the action

[09:56] {thomcbell} y

[09:56] {nemo} tna is like that, keep jar of vaseline on desk

[09:56] {thomcbell} 1/2 lot probably 

[09:57] {Threei}  it's confidence numbers nemo

[09:57] {Threei}  now it does what it was going to

[09:58] {nemo} fcx again

[10:00] {ese} mrkt seems to be shrugging off u of m #'s

[10:00] {Threei}  yeah, it all doesn't matter

[10:01] {Threei}  europe is the ultimate decider of the next direction in bigger picture

[10:02] {Threei}  I don't remember this many rinses in one week

[10:02] {Threei}  look at TNA

[10:04] {thomcbell} slw may not work today but Daily chart starting to interest me 

[10:04] {thomcbell} on long 

[10:04] {thomcbell} looks coiled

[10:09] {thomcbell} lvs looking vulnerable 

[10:13] {Threei}  (US) President Obama to issue statement on immigration at 13:15ET- Plan purportedly issues amnesty to younger illegal immigrants

[10:14] {Threei}  need those ethic votes, you know

[10:15] {Threei}  ethnic

[10:15] {scottie} JBL?

[10:15] {nemo} hispanic to be specific

[10:16] {Threei}  too narrow for my taste

[10:16] {ese} out 1/2 RIO .72 +.21 1/2 lot to go

[10:16] {scottie} ok

[10:16] {dino}  gj

[10:17] {Beau} nice going ese

[10:17] {ese} stop to .57 balance

[10:17] {ese} tks

[10:17] {ese} free money

[10:18] {ese} ya gotta love a world that provides that.........

[10:18] {Threei}  that's what Greece said 10 years ago

[10:18] {ese} stopped

[10:18] {ese} lol

[10:18] {ese} +.06 on a 1/2 lot

[10:20] {thomcbell} short setup lvs 45.23 break if holding 45.38 - 1/2 lot 

[10:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break hl

[10:20] {dino} last try fosl sm s .25 

[10:20] {Threei}  If holds  .40 

[10:22] {Threei}  change to .40 break

[10:23] {Threei}  change to .35 break

[10:23] {nemo} yeah, spy at weekly r1 

[10:24] {nemo} if this doesn't fly, waitu until spy gets to .20-.25, look for fas too

[10:25] {Threei}  change to .25 break

[10:25] {Threei}  If holds  .15 

[10:25] {nemo} think spy goes to pivot first

[10:26] {ese} have to go all....cya monday

[10:26] {Threei}  should trigger now

[10:26] {Threei}  target .55

[10:26] {Threei}  take care ese

[10:26] {scottie} leaving now, have a nice weekend all

[10:26] {Threei}  you too scottie

[10:29] {Threei}  1:1

[10:31] {Threei}  scalpers win

[10:31] {Threei}  couple cents to 1:2

[10:31] {thomcbell} lvs 1:1

[10:33] {nemo} this is the hardest op ex in a long time to trade

[10:33] {thomcbell} partialled lvs here at 45.06

[10:36] {thomcbell} took in somemore lvs 

[10:36] {thomcbell} stop on balance to 45.16 

[10:38] {Threei}  uptrend feels exhausted

[10:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .25 break

[10:39] {Threei}  If holds  .15 

[10:40] {thomcbell} flattening lvs here

[10:42] {Beau} valid again?

[10:42] {Threei}  yrd

[10:42] {Threei}  yes

[10:44] {thomcbell} long setup slw 27.90 break if holding 27.80 which is the pivot 

[10:45] {thomcbell} target 1:2

[10:45] {Threei}  changing TZA to .20

[10:45] {thomcbell} obviously closing at 28 even 

[10:46] {thomcbell} never ceases to amaze me 

[10:46] {Threei}  Invalidated  

[10:51] {Threei}  LVS looks to me ready for another step down

[10:51] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  45 break

[10:52] {Threei}  Invalidated  FOR  now but remainds on radar

[10:57] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .20 break

[10:57] {Threei}  If holds  .25 

[10:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .05 break

[10:58] {nemo} [artoa; bu OW{ 76.40 if it triggers

[10:58] {nemo} wow

[10:58] {Threei}  hmmm

[10:58] {Threei}  lol

[10:58] {nemo} partial by iwm 76.40 if it triggers

[10:59] {Threei}  LVS not ready yet

[11:00] {Threei}  this shapes up as the toughest week of this year

[11:00] {dino}  cov.fosl +.30

[11:00] {Threei}  no big losing days but the whipsaw is almost endless

[11:01] {Threei}  we had one typical day with 7 wins out of 8 calls

[11:01] {Threei}  the rest was nevereneding back and forth

[11:06] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .35 break

[11:07] {thomcbell} nice tight stop there on lvs 

[11:07] {thomcbell} thing is a nuisance though

[11:07] {thomcbell} now all the sudden it trades well

[11:07] {Threei}  what isn't this week, lol

[11:08] {Threei}  even nemo, usually so polite and generally pleasant, this week is pure nuisance

[11:09] {thomcbell} hehehe

[11:09] {Threei}  {G}

[11:09] {Threei}  I think he fainted

[11:10] {Threei}  or loads his gun... he doesn't usually forgive people for calling him pleasant

[11:15] {nemo} back and forth, was somebody insulting my curmudgeonly nature?

[11:16] {Threei}  someone totally insane suddenly came in here, called you "nice and plesant" and left in as hurry

[11:16] {nemo} not good

[11:16] {nemo} don't let them back in

[11:16] {nemo} get me their address

[11:16] {Threei}  I tried to grab him andf hold him down for you

[11:20] {nemo} iwm moves but spy doesn't really follow, and financials starting to weaken

[11:22] {nemo} probably looking at pullbacks to vwap 

[11:31] {Threei}  Hope of Coordinated Action Distract Markets from the Grim Reality in Athens

[11:32] {nemo} bad news being bought

[11:36] {nemo} now can this weakness break the trend lines, not so far

[11:40] {nemo} momentum continues to drop

[11:41] {Threei}  but price copntinues climbing

[11:42] {nemo} can't break trend line

[11:42] {nemo} ya know a stop flush is comng though

[11:50] {dino} gotta hop for hour or so, tenant issues

[11:51] {nemo} need help getting rid of the body?

[11:51] {dino} lol, no getting a new one, keys, etc

[11:51] {Threei}  lol

[11:53] {nemo} ok, this should be the drop to vwap, iwm vwap is on trendline also

[12:10] {nemo} better attach the chin pillow

[12:18] {nemo} arguably this is getting into long area

[12:18] {Threei}  so slow, it can be anything

[12:19] {nemo} yeah, just saying in dications, but I would rather wait until price action reaches trendlines plotted levels or vwap

[12:21] {nemo} figures

[12:25] {Threei}  drop

[12:25] {Threei}  (GR) S&P issues commentary on Greece exit impact on domestic companies

[12:26] {Threei}  nah, nothing significant

[12:28] {nemo} spy at vwap iwm coming into trend and fas looking long too, might bet a bounce

[12:39] {nemo} vwap .52 on iwm, spy at retracement and just below WS1

[12:58] {Threei}  if there is any common sense left in the world, we should see selling come ikn last hour

[12:59] {Threei}  then sagain... common sense isn't

[13:06] {Threei}  (GR) Sean Egan (Egan Jones): Greece cannot shoulder any debt

[13:06] {nemo} spy will test yesterday's highs

[13:07] {Threei}  (FR) France Govt said to expect bilateral relations with Germany to be unaffected following recent comments from Germany Chancellor Merkel

[13:08] {Threei}  (DE) German Chancellor Merkel: Europe must discuss growing differences in economic strength between France and Germany - comments from regular meeting with German state leaders- Germany will reject any 'quick fix' to crisis solution at upcoming G20, including Eurobonds or joint liabilities in the euro zone }- Germany is doing enough for consumer demand

[13:08] {Threei}  can you believe market goes up against such a backdrop?

[13:09] {nemo} yep, expecting huge QE

[13:09] {Threei}  but everything points out there won't be anything but little here and there

[13:09] {Threei}  Germany doesn't budge

[13:10] {nemo} market thinks when push comes to shove capitulation on the issue

[13:10] {Threei}  and doesn't look like it ever will

[13:12] {Threei}  I'll be back in 40 min guys, doc appointment

[[13:26] {Beau}  psychologist?

[13:33] {nemo} no, he committed suicide on him last year

[13:36] {nemo} interesting, gs at the top of it's range

[13:36] {nemo} look for a run if this keeps up

[14:00] {Threei}  back

[14:06] {Threei}  Ex-Soros Adviser Fujimaki Says Japan to Probably Default by 2017

[14:11] {Threei}  (GR) Greece New Democracy leader(pro bailout party) Samaras reiterates Greece will not leave the EMU; this weekend's elections are a choice between the Euro and the Drachma

[14:11] {Threei}  lol

[14:23] {nemo} looks like they want the spy 134 strikes

[14:25] {nemo} MPPs 78.00 and 134.25

[14:28] {nemo} this is pointing to huge up on Monday, question is, will they sell it off like last Monday

[14:29] {Threei}  well, it's still up tp result of election

[14:30] {nemo} Goldman knows

[14:50] {Threei}  if we finally come to some point where common sense returns to this planet, wasnt TZA near .50 fir antry with stop under .40

[14:53] {Threei}  yeah right

[14:53] {Threei}  no pullback whatsoever

[14:59] {Threei}  if we still get this drop to around .50, it'll constitute nice legit double bottom

[15:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break

[15:12] {Threei}  If holds  .40 

[15:32] {nemo} I think we still go higher

[15:41] {nemo} financials on highs energy near highs IWM and SPY, we go higher monday, I would say big gap up

[15:42] {Threei}  out

[15:42] {Threei}  had a sell at .59, 1 cent short

[15:42] {nemo} spy takes out the 134 strikes

[15:43] {Threei}  I officially hate this week

[15:47] {nemo} spy going for Monthly Pivot

[15:47] {nemo} 13 minutes plenty of thime to go .14 cents

[15:49] {Threei}  PIMCO ?@PIMCO

[15:49] {Threei}  Gross: Global world war on deflation underway. Question is will they win and can asset markets benefit? Becoming doubtful as to latter

[15:57] {nemo} Vad...take Monday off, it's not gonna' be your kind of day

[15:57] {Threei}  lol

[15:57] {Threei}  can I watch?

[15:57] {nemo} weirdo

[15:57] {Threei}  hehe

[15:57] {Threei}  that's OK, I adjust quickly

[15:58] {Threei}  we will see how it goes

[15:58] {nemo} I would think spy 136 area

[15:58] {Threei}  we may get that gap of yors and sell off like crazy

[15:58] {Threei}  just like last Monday

[15:58] {Threei}  or we may gap down big if Cyritza wins

[15:58] {nemo} and there's MPP on SPY

[15:58] {Threei}  anywa, hated this week except for one day

[15:59] {nemo} no, because then the governments will be falling all over themselves to suck.....her placate him

[15:59] {Threei}  let's have a relaxing weekend and get them next week

[15:59] {dptl} gn

[16:00] {Threei}  look at TZA

June 14 2012

Another day with a lot of rinses. Good trades outweighed stops but not by much. Extremely jittery market.

Session Time: Thu Jun 14 00:00:00 2012

[08:26] {nemo} two setup spy (based on jobs report ;-))

[08:59] {Threei}  Spanish bonds yeild 7%

[08:59] {Threei}  end is near

[09:00] {nemo} guess they're gonna' get the bull by the horns alright...

[09:01] {Threei}  Greece election this weekend almost doesn't matter anymore

[09:02] {nemo} vad. I did a blog entry updating how price action has played out against the levels and how I made that call yesterday

[09:03] {Threei}  see it

[09:04] {nemo} I left the part out about the chicken entrails though, thought it a bit too graphic

[09:04] {Threei}  so I don't watch video now, was a trade on IWM?

[09:04] {nemo} A virgin sacrifice would have helped, but they're hard to find these days

[09:04] {Threei}  I understand... problems, problems

[09:05] {nemo} well, trade on IWM related.  Could have been IWM TNA UWM, etc.

[09:05] {Threei}  or TNA?

[09:05] {Threei}  ok

[09:07] {scottie} gm

[09:08] {Threei}  scottie :)

[09:09] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/1nh6m

[09:09] {Threei}  charts are horryfying in this write-up

[09:13] {ese} gm

[09:14] {Threei}  ese :)ese :)

[09:14] {ese} vaddddddddddd!!!!!!!!!!!

[09:14] {ese} awesome news yesterday

[09:14] {Threei}  hm.. seeing double

[09:15] {Threei}  �

[09:15] {Threei}  ?

[09:15] {ese} The Midnights are going to be doing the Symphony Splash in the inner harbour

[09:15] {Threei}  wow

[09:15] {ese} got a call from the Executive director of the orchestra yesterday

[09:15] {Threei}  congratu;ations

[09:16] {ese} tks......

[09:16] {ese} don't get a chance to play for 10 to 20 thousnad people very often so it should be alot of fun

[09:16] {ese} although

[09:16] {Threei}  no kidding

[09:17] {ese} were are in the 2 to 4pm slot so there will only be about 5 to 8 thousand max at that time

[09:19] {Threei}  ese, look dcc pls

[09:19] {ese} http://www.victorialodging.com/splash_photos   we will be on the barge in the middle of the harbour everyone

[09:20] {Threei}  coolest thing... ends with fireworks

[09:20] {Beau} good morning you all and ese-the star.

[09:21] {Threei}  beau :)

[09:23] {Threei}  SPY climbed back in green

[09:24] {jimmy} GM everyone

[09:24] {Threei}  jimmy :)

[09:24] {Threei}  the only reason for that I can think of is rumor that Greece "secret polls" show Democrats winning election

[09:24] {ese} tks B........will feel like one that day

[09:24] {Threei}  so the collapse is not this weekend yet if true

[09:26] {Threei}  could just as easily tunr out to be merely a speculation

[09:28] {Threei}  but with Spanish bonds yiled at 7%, I have hard time to view anything in bullish light

[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break hl

[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .40 

[09:33] {Threei}  1:1

[09:34] {Threei}  1:2, out

[09:34] {Threei}  too soon

[09:34] {dptl} gm

[09:34] {scottie} scalped at .20 ty vad

[09:34] {Threei}  yw

[09:34] {Threei}  dp :)

[09:34] {Beau} good beginning vad

[09:35] {Threei}  SLW was on radar for short too but broke down with no setup

[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: JNPR  16 break hl

[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[09:39] {Threei}  Invalidated  

[09:39] {Threei}  change to .10 break

[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break

[09:40] {Threei}  If holds  .50 

[09:40] {Threei}  JNPR, let's keep .16 stop

[09:40] {Threei}  aggressive entry for that same 16

[09:40] {Threei}  so cover half just above it and see if it takes elevator down

[09:42] {Threei}  no go SLW

[09:43] {Threei}  x

[09:43] {Threei}  nevermind

[09:44] {Threei}  half out JNPR

[09:45] {Threei}  stop to .11

[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .50 break

[09:45] {Threei}  If holds  .40 

[09:45] {Threei}  OK JNPR... let's see waterfalls

[09:48] {Threei}  SINA

[09:48] {Threei}  Sina Corporation Ticking higher on blog reports that Sina Weibo microblog service will be fully integrated into Windows 8 operating system- Blog asserts that a Microsoft employee has confirmed in a company blog that Sina Weibo, the popular Twitter-like social network, will be fully integrated into the upcoming Windows 8 final release.

[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  22 break

[09:49] {Threei}  stop .94

[09:50] {Threei}  nope

[09:50] {Threei}  was good for measly 5 cents

[09:52] {Threei} Short Setup: MS  .55 break

[09:53] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .35 break

[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .45 

[09:54] {nemo} stealth climb in indexes

[09:54] {Threei}  disregard MS

[09:56] {Threei}  JPM's own setup is good, SPY disagrees

[09:57] {Threei}  OK, let's do a compromise - stop to .41

[09:57] {Threei}  tightening risk

[09:58] {Threei}  it's relative weakness looks promising but if market continues climbing...

[09:59] {scottie} out jpm flat

[09:59] {Threei}  out

[09:59] {Threei}  no news for this market move

[10:00] {Threei}  incredibly listless drifing this week

[10:00] {nemo} technical, IWM moved to Weekly Pivot

[10:00] {scottie} btw scalped jnpr for +.10, ty Vad

[10:00] {Threei}  :)

[10:04] {Threei}  watching TZA for dive under .60 for double bottom entry

[10:06] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .60 break

[10:06] {Threei}  If holds  .55 

[10:07] {dino} crazy market, -140, +140, -100, +90

[10:07] {Threei}  no kidding

[10:08] {Threei}  too many cross-currents

[10:08] {Threei}  spain... greece... qe3...

[10:08] {Threei}  friking JPM, rinse

[10:09] {Threei}  TZA target .75 - .80, two partials

[10:09] {Threei}  half out here

[10:09] {Threei}  stop to .58

[10:14] {Threei}  and on top of all that, Soc Gen yesterday said they see no way for Italy not to be next

[10:15] {Threei}  out second half .77

[10:16] {dino} aol stop -.21

[10:16] {Threei}  pleasant play on TZA, seen and called in advance

[10:17] {Threei}  JPM forms double bottm .20 - .25

[10:18] {Threei}  not sure we want it...

[10:18] {Threei}  nah, we don't

[10:21] {thomcbell} gdx looks very vulnerrable 

[10:22] {Threei}  thonkomg .40 break?

[10:22] {Threei}  thinking

[10:26] {Threei}  SPY stalled

[10:26] {Threei}  won't be for long though

[10:28] {Threei}  cipher... see if AAPL gives you double bottom under .50

[10:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .65 break hl

[10:31] {Threei}  If holds  .55 

[10:32] {Threei}  (EU) IMF: Hopeful G20 will make decisions regarding IMF resources at the upcoming meeting

[10:32] {Threei}  no go

[10:33] {Threei}  IMF had to open their mouth right this moment

[10:33] {Threei}  - NYSE volume 125M shares, about 24% below its three-month average; - NASDAQ volume 305M shares, about 19% below its three-month average

[10:34] {Threei}  with this volume, no wonder we get these whipsaws

[10:35] {scottie} cat rinse

[10:35] {Threei}  rinse is the constant motive of last two days

[10:36] {Threei}  I don't remember when we saw that many of them

[10:36] {Threei}  look it it

[10:37] {dino} pvh sm s .80 ave, bstop .01

[10:41] {dino} stop .99, -.19

[10:41] {dino} not my day so far

[10:41] {Threei}  50% Trust Romney More Than Obama To Handle Economy

[10:41] {Threei}  I'll trust only those who promise to stop handling it

[10:44] {Threei}  SPY starts looking like new highs in cards

[10:44] {Threei}  so, if that transpires, lt's try and adjust to rinses:

[10:44] {Threei}  let CAT break .90m, wait for a drop to about ,70, then enter

[10:45] {dino} pvh rinsed

[10:45] {Threei}  welcome to the club

[10:46] {dino} i'd like to says thanks, but...

[10:46] {Threei}  yeah :)

[10:47] {dino} i don't understand how this market is staying up w/all the euro news

[10:47] {Threei}  denial... hope for Greece election to go EU wasy...

[10:47] {Threei}  then Spain worries take over

[10:48] {Threei}  but for now Greece is the closest trouble

[10:49] {dino} the whole continent is going under

[10:50] {Threei}  well, it's so obvious by now that I have hard time understanding why Euro is not under parity yet

[10:50] {Threei}  maybe enormity of the event just prevents players from seeing it for what it is

[10:52] {Threei}  or they really hope for Germany to yiled to the pressure and take over all the debts

[10:52] {Threei}  (as if it fixes anything)

[10:52] {dino} i'm telling you, if i were germany i'd just leave the euro go back to d-mark

[10:54] {Threei}  in an ironic twist, this time CAT decided not to rinse

[10:56] {ese} outta here....busy couple of days....cya tomorrow

[10:56] {Threei}  take care ese

[10:58] {dino} cya

[11:05] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .34 break

[11:05] {Threei}  If holds  .40 

[11:06] {dino} pvh sm s .27

[11:14] {Threei}  scratch X

[11:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .85 break hl

[11:19] {dino} pvh stop -.29

[11:19] {Threei}  stop under .75

[11:20] {Threei}  target 1:2

[11:21] {dino} pall spike

[11:21] {Threei}  Pall Corp Guides initial FY13 Rev up in low single digits; reaffirms FY12 EPS (cont ops) of about $2.72 v $2.71e - William Blair conf slides

[11:24] {Threei}  come on .90 seller, give up already

[11:24] {Threei}  finally

[11:25] {Threei}  1:1

[11:25] {Threei}  play by the book

[11:25] {Threei}  half out, stop to under b/e

[11:25] {scottie} target 1:3 now?

[11:25] {Threei}  1:2

[11:29] {scottie} played by the book +.21 ty Vad

[11:29] {Threei}  :)

[11:30] {nemo} grind up day

[11:30] {scottie} back on the + side

[11:30] {Threei}  yeah, squeezed last play just on that

[11:31] {Threei}  problem with such days usually is, they don't offer setups

[11:31] {Threei}  this one did though

[11:34] {scottie} 1:2 was perfect target Vad

[11:36] {nemo} iwm at trend

[11:41] {dino} fosl sm s .49 bstop hod

[11:47] {dino} fosl to b/e

[11:47] {scottie} hcp 42?

[11:52] {dino} cov fosl .39, +.10

[12:01] {dino} ugh fosl

[12:01] {dino} sm s pvh .80

[12:05] {Threei}  can't tell if trend changes or SPY just sleeps in a narrow range for a while

[12:05] {Threei}  be baclk in 20

[12:13] {dino} stop

[12:14] {dino} wtf another rinse

[12:35] {Threei}  (IT) Italy PM Monti: Discussed European integration, euro zone crisis with French President Hollande; agreed on main points needed to deal with the crisis- Monti notes he is clearly in the French camp when considering what measures to take to resolve the crisis

[12:35] {Threei}  but of course

[12:40] {Threei}  chuckle brothers...

[12:40] {Threei}  Need to boost growth without abandoning fiscal discipline, fiscal discipline alone is not enough to boost job, economic growth. - Reiterates need for Greece to stay in euro and honor its commitments.

[12:41] {Threei}  good luck with all that

[13:11] {Threei}  lol

[13:11] {Threei}  want more from one of chuckle brothers?

[13:11] {Threei}  (EU) France President Hollande: Europe needs mechanisms to prevent market speculation and support member states and banks facing turmoil

[13:21] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/P6bik

[13:25] {dino} fosl sm s .56

[13:26] {nemo} was thinking time for faz before I went for coffee

[13:26] {Threei}  it as 50/50 really.ould have break downjust as easily

[13:36] {scottie} ed .45 ?

[13:36] {Threei}  no... too narrow

[13:36] {scottie} ok

[13:36] {Threei}  25 cents whole day's range

[13:37] {Threei}  unless you are willing to endure long fight for 5 cents gain, leave it be

[13:37] {scottie} would accept 5 cents with 1 million shares

[13:39] {dino} stop fosl

[13:42] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Syriza leader Tsipras: Reiterates that Syriza will not form a coalition government with pro-bailout parties- Reiterates that the election is a referendum on the bailout. - Spain was able to negotiate EU support without any demands for austerity.

[13:43] {dino} wow, rinsed again

[13:44] {Threei}  name of the game these two days

[13:45] {nemo} now are we getting the right side of an H&S on SPY and IWM

[13:47] {Threei}  if that's what plays out, then TZA should become a play here

[13:47] {Threei}  .60 break

[13:47] {Threei}  alternative, if loses .50, then .50 recross if holds .40

[13:48] {nemo} this 75.90 level WPP and 200 SMA on IWM

[13:48] {scottie} H&S nemo?

[13:48] {nemo} NKE shaping up short

[13:48] {nemo} Head & Shoulders-it's not another flaky pattern you know

[13:49] {scottie} of course thanks

[13:50] {nemo} actually that was the title of an SEC study on the pattern

[13:52] {scottie} in .51

[13:56] {scottie} wrong direction I'm out

[14:00] {nemo} NKE swatted down, back near lows, looks weak

[14:21] {dino} hun spike

[14:24] {dino} mkt dropping

[14:25] {dino} fosl sm s .16

[14:25] {Threei}  here comes TZA

[14:26] {Threei}  (EU) France Industry Minister: Germany Chancellor Merkel is "blinded by ideology."

[14:26] {Threei}  eeck

[14:27] {nemo} yeah, she doesn't want to fund their credit card indefinitely...

[14:27] {nemo} spy vwap

[14:27] {Threei}  amazing

[14:27] {nemo} what?

[14:27] {nemo} my intellectual brilliance?

[14:28] {Threei}  french chuckle brothers

[14:28] {Threei}  well, that too

[14:28] {nemo} ahhhh, sniff sniff

[14:28] {nemo} I'm such a humble sod of the earth kinda' guy

[14:29] {nemo} I do sometimes have trouble differentiating between fantasy and reality though

[14:29] {nemo} but....

[14:29] {nemo} I have bunny

[14:32] {Threei}  playboy bunny

[14:35] {nemo} unfortunately...nah

[14:35] {nemo} funny

[14:35] {nemo} bunny usually sleeps during the day and comes out around 4 or 5

[14:35] {nemo} but I start wrinkling the tortilla chip bag and suddenly I have a visitor

[14:36] {nemo} frickin' mexican bunny

[14:39] {Raven} Is bunny toilet trained?

[14:42] {nemo} she's house broken yes

[14:43] {nemo} wow...Thus spoke the Raven

[14:43] {nemo} I know that's mixing titles, but...

[14:43] {Threei}  spake

[14:43] {nemo} sprach

[14:43] {Raven} lol

[14:43] {nemo} Verdammte Vogel

[14:44] {Raven} is that bunny a cottontail?

[14:44] {nemo} Yeah, pretty amazing, they housebreak themselves...surprised when I read it

[14:44] {nemo} Yeah, my nephew saved it when it was a baby from a marauding feline

[14:44] {nemo} it was so small it could crawl down a toilet paper tube

[14:45] {Raven} is that bunny a cottontail?

[14:45] {nemo} ok looks like another drop coming, iwm pivot at .64

[14:45] {nemo} looking for long setup by then

[14:45] {nemo} yes it's a cottontail

[14:46] {Raven} Obama requires that you have a permit to keep a wild animal

[14:46] {nemo} no shit

[14:46] {Raven} of course

[14:46] {nemo} In Massachusetts having wild animals is an issue

[14:46] {nemo} My friend had a baby deer show up in his back yard

[14:46] {nemo} mother must have gotten killed

[14:46] {Raven} prolly need a State permit too

[14:46] {nemo} it would hang around with his dogs

[14:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .10 break

[14:46] {Raven} you are a criminal

[14:47] {nemo} he would put them in a pen at night and the deer would go with them

[14:47] {Threei}  If holds  26 

[14:47] {nemo} Needless to say he got busted.  $5k fine

[14:47] {nemo} The deer could come and go as it pleased, but they called it a pet

[14:47] {Raven} sheesh

[14:47] {nemo} this is fas vwap

[14:48] {nemo} yeah no kidding

[14:48] {dino} fosl bstop to .86

[14:48] {nemo} People's Republic of Massachusetts

[14:48] {Raven} yup

[14:49] {nemo} o.k. that IWM SPY long is shaping up

[14:49] {nemo} watch setup here IWM and .72 SPY

[14:50] {nemo} here we go

[14:50] {dino} cov fosl .82, +.34

[14:51] {nemo} not showing real strength yet though

[14:53] {nemo} not yet

[14:53] {Threei}  my target's 1:3

[14:53] {Threei}  if there is any leftovers of common sense, we should see nice juicy selloff now

[14:55] {dino} ndx red

[14:55] {nemo} tick keeps moving down

[14:55] {Threei}  COMP too

[14:59] {dino} fosl sm s .57

[14:59] {Threei}  stop .05 FAZ

[14:59] {Threei}  half out

[15:00] {dino} 07 all red

[15:00] {Threei}  let's try and ride this selling wave

[15:00] {Threei}  we waited for it long enough

[15:03] {Threei}  ugh

[15:03] {Threei}  scalpers win

[15:03] {scottie} That's it for me guys, see you tomorrow

[15:04] {Threei}  take care scottie

[15:04] {Threei}  TZA

[15:04] {Threei}  nice pullback

[15:04] {dino} cya

[15:04] {Threei}  watching for entry

[15:05] {dino} fosl stopped -.30

[15:06] {Threei}  hmmm

[15:06] {dino} pvh sm l .72

[15:06] {Threei}  must be news

[15:06] {nemo} new it was close 

[15:06] {nemo} knew

[15:06] {Threei}  yes

[15:06] {nemo} no

[15:06] {nemo} technical level

[15:06] {Threei}  no, news

[15:06] {Threei}  G20 said to indicate that Central banks are preparing for coordinated action to provide liquidity if necessary after the Greece elections

[15:07] {dptl} see ya tomorrow all, got to go

[15:07] {dino} cya

[15:07] {Threei}  take care dp

[15:08] {dino} out pvh .22, +.50

[15:10] {thomcbell} this is bananas

[15:12] {dino} agreed

[15:12] {dino} seems they are getting ready for the greek drop out of euro

[15:12] {nemo} glad I was looking for a long there

[15:12] {nemo} vaseline anybody?

[15:13] {dino} so much for free markets

[15:15] {dino} doesn't make sense, standing ready is for bad news

[15:16] {thomcbell} unless you are balls short and leaning 

[15:16] {thomcbell} hehehe

[15:17] {dino} fosl sm s .60

[15:18] {thomcbell} short setup lvs 45.84 break if holding 45.95

[15:19] {nemo} well that sure F's up the setups

[15:19] {thomcbell} target 1:3

[15:19] {dino} cov fosl .20, +.40

[15:19] {thomcbell} 1:1

[15:20] {Beau} gj dino

[15:20] {dino} ty, need one more for green, rough morning

[15:21] {thomcbell} lvs 1:2

[15:22] {Threei}  nice

[15:22] {dino} gj

[15:22] {thomcbell} covered 1/4 here

[15:22] {dino} fosl sm s .09

[15:23] {thomcbell} 1:3

[15:23] {Threei}  interesting

[15:23] {Threei}  look how quickly market gets disillusioned

[15:23] {Threei}  this kind of news used to cause multidays' rally

[15:24] {nemo} reality set in that that's actually bad news

[15:24] {Threei}  now it buys us 5 min

[15:24] {thomcbell} stop to 45.66 on balance 

[15:24] {nemo} No, it buys me an open bottle

[15:24] {Threei}  just as Spain bailout bought us one gap

[15:24] {dino} lol

[15:25] {thomcbell} only 1/4 lvs left with 43.66 stop 

[15:26] {thomcbell} out 

[15:28] {Threei}  (GR) Euro zone finance ministers confirm to hold a conf call on Sunday night after the Greek election results to discuss the results

[15:29] {Threei}  CNBC's Liesman: Have contacted ECB over latest leaked reports on possible coordinated intervention for liquidity; ECB had no comment

[15:29] {Threei}  one thing is for sure: next week will be anything but boring

[15:30] {dino} germany preparing panzer division

[15:31] {Threei}  lol

[15:31] {dino} fosl stop

[15:32] {nemo} hehehehe...that was a leak to squeeze the shorts

[15:32] {nemo} too funny

[15:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break

[15:42] {Threei}  last scalp

[15:43] {Threei}  stop .34

[15:43] {Threei}  missed first spike for half out

[15:43] {dino} pvh sm s .35

[15:44] {thomcbell} we have to remember the heavy distribution on massive volume that happened in qcom today 

[15:45] {thomcbell} if gap up - nice short candidate 

[15:45] {Threei}  half out .47

[15:45] {Threei}  out second half

[15:45] {Threei}  sheesh

[15:45] {Threei}  what's with speed both ways

[15:46] {thomcbell} if u r short spy tonite there is a .70 dividend u r responsible 4

[15:46] {thomcbell} a friend just told me 

[15:49] {Threei}  could be a reason for some short covering

[15:51] {dino} crazy, they basically say we are preparing for the worst, so market goes up 100

[15:57] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all

[15:58] {Threei}  have a good evening, qwe have even more fun tomorrow I suspect

[15:59] {dino} cov pvh .22 +.13

Nemo's midweek findings 6/10 (and a trade)

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

http://youtu.be/IsaWD6FMCIw

I recap how the levels have been playing out this week.  Also, I was asked about a reversal trade I called out today, it's kind of a stock one for me, so it's here. 

 Sorry about the yawn in the audio.  Still getting over being sick.  Frickin' bunny keeps me up all hours.  They're nocturnal.  I didn't know that, until it was too late...

June 13 2012

Despite a few very nice plays, there were a few too many rinses as we tried to keep stops very tight but market was a bit too nervous. No real harm done though.


Session Time: Wed Jun 13 00:00:00 2012
[09:08] {Threei}  OK... time to wake up probably... even though most prefer to sleep to 8:25
[09:08] {Threei}  9:25
[09:09] {scottie} gm
[09:09] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:10] {jimmy} GM everyone. I m a newbie
[09:11] {cc_8} nice, so am i
[09:11] {scottie} gm jimmy
[09:11] {Threei}  morning jimmy, welcome to the room
[09:11] {jimmy} thanks. first time in this chatroom. hope to learn.
[09:12] {scottie} I've only been here for a few weeks jimmy
[09:12] {dptl} gm
[09:12] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:12] {Threei}  from yestrday's eod: 15:59] {scottie} I'm 6 on 7, thanks Vad {--- not bad for a newbie
[09:14] {scottie} lol
[09:19] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:19] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:19] {Threei}  hmmm... why on earth would I get an e-mail suggesting I buy real mink eyelashes...
[09:20] {Threei}  even at 68% off, I am not tempted
[09:22] {Threei}  so far morning looks encouraging
[09:23] {Threei}  I like these red openings if they are not too big
[09:25] {dino} gm
[09:25] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:25] {dino} welcome to the jungle jimmy
[09:26] {jimmy} thanks buddy
[09:26] {Threei}  let's skip firast few min, let the opening volatility work itself out and hope market doesn't drop 100 points right out of the gate
[09:26] {Threei}  then hunt shorts into bounces and breakdowns of consolidations
[09:27] {Threei}  FCX looks good for shorting but its opening spikes are too big lately
[09:27] {Threei}  FAZ and TZA of course, always on the radar
[09:28] {Threei}  FAZ looks better vehicle for today so far
[09:31] {Threei}  don't do this to us SPY
[09:31] {Threei}  bounce first
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .55 break
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  50
[09:32] {dino} tsco?
[09:33] {Threei}  no go
[09:33] {nemo} spy at pivot iwm at weekly pivot
[09:33] {Threei}  TSCO symathy with TITN, bad report
[09:34] {dino} hmm, few days ago
[09:34] {Threei}  yeah, June 7
[09:34] {Threei}  nothing fresher
[09:34] {dino} ok seeing same
[09:34] {Threei}  FAZ rinse... overtightened stop
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:35] {nemo} should shot jnj
[09:35] {nemo} they'
[09:35] {Threei}  half lot as usual at the open
[09:35] {nemo} ve been selling up gaps
[09:35] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:36] {Threei}  FAZ, let's do a second try
[09:36] {Threei}  .55 break again
[09:37] {Threei}  change to .50
[09:38] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:38] {Threei}  FCX, trail stop to .26
[09:38] {dino} tsco sm l .48
[09:40] {dino} out .10, +.62
[09:40] {Threei}  wtg
[09:40] {dino} ty
[09:40] {nemo} .60 battleground jnj
[09:40] {cipher} tsco s.10
[09:41] {cipher} out 1/2 .70
[09:41] {cipher} OUT REST .50 +.60
[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
[09:41] {Threei}  nice one cipher
[09:41] {dino} gj cipher
[09:41] {cipher} thx
[09:41] {Threei}  you guys played it like violin
[09:42] {Threei}  TZA change to .60
[09:42] {Threei}  stop .54
[09:43] {Threei}  maybe too tight but I don't like volatility still
[09:43] {Threei}  out FCX
[09:45] {Threei}  not my morning so far
[09:45] {Threei}  rinses everywhere
[09:46] {cipher} tsco l .53
[09:46] {cipher} out 1/2 .80
[09:47] {Threei}  (US) Preview: Apr Business Inventories due out at 10:00ET**Consensus expectation: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior
[09:47] {Beau} gj c
[09:47] {cipher} ty
[09:47] {cc_8} FYI beau i just fixed you up
[09:47] {dino} gj
[09:47] {cc_8} everything should be good now
[09:48] {Beau} thanks.
[09:48] {cc_8} np
[09:48] {Beau} you might look into the ini prob.
[09:49] {cc_8} the problem was because i didnt set the BP and MAX LOSS
[09:49] {cc_8} i dont think it had anything to do with the ini, although im not sure because we didnt isolate the parameter problem first
[09:49] {Beau} ok should i install new ini?
[09:50] {Threei} Short Setup: MUR  .70 break smaller shares
[09:50] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[09:50] {cc_8} TZA is in the money big time
[09:51] {cc_8} one sec beau, while i check it out for you
[09:52] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .40 break
[09:52] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[09:53] {Threei}  not a scalp, target 1:3
[09:54] {Threei}  if invalidates, let's look for another trigger
[09:54] {Threei}  most likely around .60
[09:54] {Threei}  valid so far
[09:55] {scottie} hit the button too soon, in at .43
[09:55] {Threei}  fine, it triggered
[09:55] {Threei}  consider it aggressive entry
[09:56] {Threei}  1:1
[09:56] {scottie} out at .30, +13 ty Vad
[09:56] {Threei}  yw but too soon
[09:56] {scottie} So I see
[09:57] {cc_8} beau email sent
[09:57] {Threei}  1:2
[09:57] {Beau} thx cc
[09:58] {Threei}  stop .36 for the last part
[09:59] {Beau} +.18 on LVS and big thx vad
[09:59] {Threei}  :)
[10:00] {Threei}  need couple more of this kind to right the day
[10:00] {cipher} aapl l .25
[10:00] {cc_8} nice trades beau
[10:00] {Threei}  Attention:  DIS'REGARD  mur
[10:00] {Threei}  too slow, not worth it
[10:01] {dino} gj beau
[10:03] {cipher} out 1/2 aapl .00
[10:03] {Beau} thanks
[10:04] {cipher} out rest aapl 576.20 +.95
[10:04] {dino} pvh sm l .92
[10:05] {Threei}  done with LVS for now
[10:06] {cipher} cat l .03
[10:09] {cipher} out 1/2 .20
[10:10] {cipher} out rest .30
[10:12] {Beau} very good c.  hot today
[10:15] {dino} in the zone cipher
[10:16] {dino} pvh to .25
[10:16] {dino} out slip, .22 ave +.30
[10:18] {Beau} good one dino
[10:19] {scottie} chk s .17 ?
[10:19] {scottie} not .17, 17
[10:20] {scottie} forget it
[10:20] {scottie} wrong direction
[10:21] {nemo} news wfm
[10:24] {scottie} cnc double top ?
[10:24] {Threei}  can't tell, a bit too slow
[10:25] {scottie} ok
[10:27] {dino} ty beau
[10:28] {dino} wfm opening 30 stores
[10:36] {dino} dks sm l .50
[10:38] {dino} open gaps filled ndx s/p
[10:38] {dino} dji
[10:39] {Threei}  pullback time
[10:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .90 break
[10:39] {nemo} i'm thinking it's only a pullback to yesterday's trend line
[10:40] {Threei}  If holds  .85  for scalpers, .80 day traders
[10:40] {dino} needs to suck in more bulls, pm drop imo
[10:42] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .75 break hl
[10:43] {dino} stop dks -.05
[10:43] {Threei}  If holds  .85
[10:43] {Threei}  FAZ takes too long... not liking it
[10:43] {Threei}  trail stop to .84 for evreyone
[10:43] {Threei}  out
[10:44] {dino} wtf dks
[10:44] {nemo} next run
[10:44] {Threei}  this kind should work faster or odds of failure increase greatly
[10:45] {Threei}  LVS invalidated
[10:46] {nemo} tza look sbetter
[10:57] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .80 break hl
[10:58] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:58] {nemo} looks like spy]
[10:59] {Threei}  Invalidated
[11:00] {nemo} next spot is 76.55 area on IWM then we'll know
[11:02] {nemo} tza worth it here if it breaks .25
[11:03] {dino} breakdown
[11:03] {nemo} how much of a breakdown, don't think much
[11:04] {dino} fosl sm s .91
[11:04] {nemo} 1/2 out .35
[11:05] {nemo} stop to .24
[11:05] {nemo} you in coma yet Vad?
[11:08] {Threei}  no
[11:08] {Threei}  looking at things
[11:09] {nemo} girlie pictures?
[11:09] {nemo} ahh, this tza, nevermind
[11:09] {Threei}  where the hell did he put this camera in my office...
[11:09] {nemo} it's in the bunny
[11:10] {cipher} L AAPL .70
[11:10] {Threei}  LVS worked as shirt freom .90 but there was no setup
[11:11] {nemo} out tza under .30
[11:13] {cipher} out 1/2 aapl 577.29 +.59
[11:15] {cipher} out rest 577.27
[11:15] {cipher} outta here
[11:15] {cipher} cya
[11:16] {scottie} bye cipher
[11:16] {Threei}  take care cipher
[11:18] {dino} cya cipher
[11:22] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .80 break
[11:22] {Threei}  If holds  .85
[11:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .80 break hl
[11:26] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[11:26] {scottie} in cat .81
[11:28] {scottie} out
[11:28] {Threei}  no go
[11:28] {Threei}  not my day
[11:32] {thomcbell} FIO beginning to look like there is upside on the daily
[11:43] {dino} cov fosl .61, +.30
[11:50] {jimmy} now that it's quieter, what does sm means?
[11:50] {Threei}  small shares
[11:51] {jimmy} thks
[11:57] {dino} jimmy, sm = 400 shares for me, hl 500, 1k if nothing typed
[11:58] {dino} sorry for late response, chaos morning/r.e. distractions
[11:59] {jimmy} struggled to keep up....most times couldn't see reasons for setup
[12:00] {dino} my setups are different. do not recommend you trade my trades for awhile
[12:01] {jimmy} yup, only took one....FAZ...got stopped out
[12:07] {nemo} 75.90 area is wpp on iwm, I'm looking for a bounce in that area
[12:10] {nemo} l tna .65
[12:12] {nemo} 1/2 .76
[12:12] {scottie} quick scalp +.10 on tna thanks nemo
[12:13] {nemo} yw
[12:14] {nemo} 1/4 more .90
[12:14] {Threei}  nice
[12:15] {Threei}  TZA turn should come around .45
[12:15] {nemo} stop to ,65 last quarter
[12:20] {nemo} stop to .74
[12:21] {Threei}  watching TZA for sign of reversal
[12:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[12:23] {Threei}  .45 was the ideal entery as foretold eh
[12:24] {Threei}  anyway, this is val,id double bottom setup now,
[12:24] {nemo} stop to .79
[12:24] {Threei}  as long as it holds .40
[12:25] {scottie} in .47
[12:27] {scottie} target tza?
[12:28] {thomcbell} long setup swk 62.86 break if holding 62.76
[12:28] {Threei}  .70 looks plausible
[12:30] {nemo} alright, I'm bored with this trade
[12:30] {dino} fosl sm l .05
[12:31] {nemo} looking long though
[12:31] {Threei}  doesn't look to work
[12:31] {Threei}  SPY is trying to break out
[12:32] {Threei}  IMO, scratch TZA
[12:32] {scottie} out .43
[12:32] {nemo} stop to .99
[12:32] {scottie} glad I entered at .47
[12:33] {scottie} lost only .04
[12:33] {thomcbell} swk 1:1
[12:33] {dino} gj
[12:34] {nemo} or ya' think I should move stop to .94?
[12:34] {Threei}  on TNA?
[12:34] {nemo} yes
[12:34] {Threei}  no, .99 is right
[12:35] {dino} nemo, you're pretty much using r1,2,3, pivots, 50 ma, and vwap for turns right?
[12:35] {thomcbell} swk 1:2
[12:35] {dino} gj
[12:36] {nemo} multi time frame too...IWM bounced right at the weekly pivot
[12:36] {dino} asking because you are calling reverses nicely, what is most significant
[12:36] {nemo} when I see reversal setups, at significant levels between both spy and iwm
[12:37] {nemo} I also run fibs
[12:37] {nemo} I watch standard price support/resistance...notice spy had price support going back to about 10:20 at that level
[12:38] {dino} yes
[12:39] {nemo} so, when multiple levels line up, and your indicators or candle/bar reads line up...bingo
[12:40] {thomcbell} swk 1:3
[12:40] {nemo} Now, what is also perhaps unusual about index etfs: those hated indicators work very well with them, because they are so liquid
[12:40] {nemo} also, I watch the base etf IWM and SPY, to trade TNA TZA UPRO SPXU
[12:40] {thomcbell} sold 1/4 at 63.12
[12:41] {nemo} stop is .49
[12:41] {nemo} the leveraged etf's have distortion because of the option action, so I don't trade off those
[12:42] {nemo} not that you can't, Vad does it well, just IWM and SPY are closer to the reality off which TNA/TZA et. al. move
[12:44] {nemo} btw, I have posted my panel view where I have 2/3 minute and 15 minute of IWM and SPY up at all times
[12:44] {dino} thks buddy
[12:44] {dino} seen it
[12:44] {dino} i usually trade individual stocks rather than etf, bigger moves
[12:45] {nemo} what is also behaviorally interesting about SPY and IWM, they often reverse during lunch time just to catch everybody off guard
[12:45] {thomcbell} took swk trade at 63.20 flat
[12:45] {nemo} funny, missed my stop typing, how fortuitous
[12:46] {dino} that reverse at lunch i am familiar with
[12:46] {dptl} thanx for swk tb +.40
[12:46] {dino} 2:30 reverse time too
[12:46] {nemo} out last .60
[12:47] {thomcbell} yw
[12:47] {dino} gj
[12:47] {dino} out fosl .35, +.30
[12:49] {nemo} actually Dino, that was .95 for tna, if you look at the ATRs on TNA UPRO you can't beat them for consistency from day to day, plus you only have to learn two animals
[12:52] {nemo} btw...dino 76.56 was Weekly R1 on IWM
[12:53] {Threei}  CAT dividend increase
[13:04] {dino} ok
[13:06] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .78
[13:06] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[13:08] {Threei}  Invalidated
[13:20] {Threei}  If holds  .75  break
[13:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .75 break
[13:21] {Threei}  stiop under .70
[13:21] {Threei}  target .90 - .95
[13:21] {thomcbell} long setup etn 39.94 break if holding 39.86
[13:25] {thomcbell} etn invalidated
[13:27] {thomcbell} but still watching for an entry
[13:27] {scottie} faz scalp + .11 ty
[13:30] {nemo} think we go back to the monthly pivots this week
[13:35] {Threei}  took full position scottie?
[13:35] {scottie} was in at .75 and out at .86
[13:36] {nemo} algo I'm looking at is strong buy side at moment
[13:46] {Threei}  sheesh
[13:46] {Threei}  things really move with no setups today
[13:46] {nemo} well, what I notice just before that drop was tlt hit the top of it's range
[13:47] {nemo} 132.02, nevermind the whole, is major weekly support, plus trend line right undernesth, spy iwm trend line at .20
[13:48] {nemo} I lied, major support 132.92, and of course support of the whole
[13:49] {Threei}  (FR) France Govt considering methods to restrict high wages in private industry - financial press
[13:49] {Threei}  right
[13:49] {nemo} that should help
[13:49] {scottie} gdx .35 ?
[13:50] {nemo} scottie, gdx topped out at the monthly R1
[13:50] {scottie} thanks
[13:51] {nemo} would likely test it, but that's a strong level at about .46
[13:52] {Threei}  I'd be ,looking to short it
[13:52] {Threei}  .30 breakdown for instancve
[13:53] {Threei}  if holds .35
[13:53] {nemo} you're so negative
[13:53] {dino} gotta hop all, thx
[13:54] {Threei}  take care dino
[13:55] {scottie} can't decide long or short, will leave it alone
[13:56] {nemo} well, we either bounce soon, or looks like a double top
[13:56] {nemo} bonds ripping
[13:57] {Threei}  stop .36
[13:57] {Threei}  target .10 - .15
[13:58] {scottie} didn't take it Vad
[13:58] {Threei}  too bad... clean double top
[13:59] {Threei}  half out
[13:59] {scottie} should've
[13:59] {Threei}  stop to .31, bid second half .12 - .13
[14:04] {Threei}  out
[14:04] {Threei}  not bad for 5 cents risk
[14:05] {Threei}  although overall I am stil not very happy with how I handled today
[14:05] {Threei}  yesterday was way more to my liking
[14:06] {nemo} today was a weird day...lotsa cloudiness on the stream
[14:07] {nemo} fas tna bounce area
[14:07] {Threei}  be back in 15
[14:12] {jimmy} Good night all
[14:12] {nemo} fas iwm spy all at bounce area
[14:13] {scottie} see you jimmy
[14:20] {nemo} not much of a bounce
[14:21] {scottie} in iwm .95
[14:28] {scottie} lost faith, out flat
[14:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .05 break
[14:37] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[14:41] {Threei}  target .25 at least, .35 very possible
[14:42] {Threei}  1:1
[14:43] {scottie} stop .99 ?
[14:43] {Threei}  .04 already
[14:44] {Threei}  let's keep it neat
[14:44] {Threei}  1:2
[14:44] {Threei}  stop to .09 for the last quarter
[14:45] {Threei}  for the whole day, this is just second play I am fully satisfied with
[14:45] {Threei}  first was that LVS short
[14:45] {Threei}  stop to .14
[14:53] {Threei}  to .19
[14:53] {Threei}  out
[14:53] {Threei}  OK, breating better
[14:54] {Threei}  you OK scottie? :)
[14:54] {scottie} Partialled out as planned, ty Vad
[14:54] {Threei}  cool
[14:54] {Threei}  ok, 20 min break and let's see what end of day brongs
[15:25] {Threei}  wow
[15:25] {Threei}  nice action
[15:26] {scottie} tna db?
[15:27] {Threei}  formally yes but feels like it will fail
[15:27] {Threei}  more selling in cards
[15:27] {scottie} ok
[15:27] {nemo} I don't really see it
[15:27] {Threei}  which part?
[15:28] {nemo} long
[15:28] {Threei}  yeah
[15:28] {nemo} neither iwm spy or iyf looking long
[15:28] {nemo} need all three on this fall
[15:28] {Threei}  no, panic in the air
[15:30] {Threei}  TZA
[15:30] {Threei}  .30 BREAK
[15:30] {Threei}  long
[15:30] {Threei}  If holds  20
[15:33] {Threei}  change to .20 break
[15:34] {Threei}  with .14 stop
[15:34] {scottie} in .22
[15:35] {nemo} ok. iyf starting to look long
[15:35] {Threei}  no go TZA
[15:50] {Threei}  rinse
[15:53] {Threei}  OK guys, can't tell I am happy with today, too many rinses
[15:53] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow for a better day
[15:54] {scottie} A little bit down, not that bad after all, thanks Vad
[15:54] {dptl} gn all
[15:54] {scottie} gn

June 12 2012

Beautiful trading day with many winning trades and just one stop (or rather a rinse). Difficult to chose the best one to use a a Catch of the Day, let's go with this fine example of pullback entry:

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html ) 




Session Time: Tue Jun 12 00:00:00 2012
09:02] {Threei}  General Motors Corp CEO: US Treasury needs to come up with exit plan; should determine a plan of exit without harming share price
[09:03] {Threei}  problem with such help ias, at some point you need to pay for it...
[09:11] {nemo} well, kinda' tough when you own 60+% of the sharesm,,,dumb bastard
[09:12] {Threei}  uhhu
[09:12] {nemo} that's Like JPM and the London Whale's position, there is no way out
[09:13] {nemo} what up with kors?
[09:13] {scottie} gm
[09:13] {Threei}  Michael Kors Holding Ltd Reports Q4 $0.22 v $0.16e, Rev $380M v $361Me- Guides Q1 $0.18-0.20 v $0.16e, R$360-370M v $323Me - Guides initial FY13 $1.08-1.12 v $0.99e, R$1.7-1.8B v $1.67Be
[09:13] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:14] {nemo} love this long tail action in spy premarket, was looking going long above 131.60, both those long tails woulda stopped me out
[09:15] {nemo} every frickin morning this happens pre market
[09:15] {Threei}  that's premarket for you
[09:15] {nemo} "Many people take no care of their money till they come nearly to the end of it, and others do just the same with their time." - Goethe
[09:24] {dptl} gm
[09:24] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:25] {ese} gm
[09:25] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:26] {ese} Vad.......am wondering if I can hire you to take some pictures of the band at Butchart Gardens this summer?
[09:27] {ese} Saturday July 14th
[09:27] {Threei}  I guess
[09:27] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:27] {ese} B
[09:27] {Threei}  have to verify with my manager that we have no social commitments for that date
[09:28] {Threei}  Beau :)
[09:28] {ese} excellent
[09:29] {ese} you'll need a roadie to haul your gear.....call nemo
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .05 break
[09:31] {Threei}  late
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .65 break hl
[09:32] {Threei}  what the deuce
[09:32] {Threei}  they trigger while I hit enter
[09:32] {nemo} ok it's chop time
[09:33] {nemo} I'm waiting a while
[09:34] {Threei}  yeah, but TNA was particularly good setup
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .90 break
[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[09:34] {Threei}  change to .80 break
[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:36] {Threei}  half out .89
[09:37] {Threei}  1/4 out .96
[09:37] {Threei}  stop .85
[09:37] {nemo} not taking any chances, are you
[09:37] {Threei}  ?
[09:37] {scottie} scalped it at +.10 ty
[09:38] {Threei}  :)
[09:38] {Beau} scalped .12  thx vad
[09:38] {Threei}  yw
[09:39] {Threei}  come on TZA, break 22 and run
[09:40] {Threei}  stop to .89
[09:40] {ese} ok ...L arna .40....don't this at home dangerous
[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .15 break hl
[09:42] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:42] {Threei}  out last piece TZA .06
[09:43] {Threei}  aww... too soon
[09:43] {Threei}  FCX looks ready
[09:44] {Threei}  target .35
[09:45] {Threei}  1:1
[09:45] {Threei}  stop for balance to .13
[09:46] {scottie} +.11 ty
[09:46] {Threei}  yw
[09:47] {Threei}  target hit, out
[09:47] {scottie} 1:2 in 3 min. great call
[09:48] {thomcbell} well done Vad
[09:48] {Threei}  ty
[09:48] {Beau} good one vad
[09:48] {Threei}  noticed over last few months, Mondays are often somewhat dazzled, Tuesdays are much more stable
[09:49] {ese} dino ....if your hangin let me know what you think of PNC
[09:50] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .20 break
[09:51] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[09:52] {scottie} couldn't short it, too bad
[09:54] {cipher} fcx s .49
[09:54] {Threei}  cover half .12
[09:54] {Threei}  stop to .21
[09:54] {cipher} cov 1/2 .39
[09:54] {nemo} gg .30 level
[09:54] {Threei}  nice one cipher
[09:55] {cipher} cov rest .30
[09:55] {cipher} ty
[09:55] {Threei}  beautiful kangaroo tail on that FCX
[09:55] {ese} L pnc .48 sm
[09:56] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .10 break hl
[09:56] {Threei}  If holds  46
[09:56] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:56] {Threei}  out X .05
[09:57] {nemo} chop chop chop chop slice slice slice
[09:57] {Threei}  that's OK, we are chopping in the right direction so far
[09:57] {ese} i'll say nemo.........
[09:57] {Threei}  it's when they chop us that I object chop :)
[09:58] {Threei}  German 10-year Bunds Dealers note that European govt yields higher in core countries too in session with rotational theme out of Europe fixed income instruments taking place- German 10-year yield at 1.41%, higher by over 10bps - France 10-year yield at 2.68%, higher by almost 15bps
[09:58] {ese} up arna dn pnc.....chop chop chop
[09:59] {ese} spyders driving me crazy
[09:59] {cipher} tza l .05
[09:59] {Threei}  here comes next financial wreck folks:
[09:59] {Threei}  (FR) France President Hollande: Economic growth will not come from additional public spending
[09:59] {nemo} brilliant
[10:00] {Threei}  this is the guy who lowered pension age to 60 a few days ago
[10:00] {nemo} yeah
[10:00] {cipher} tza stopped -.10
[10:00] {Threei}  (US) Jun IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 46.7 v 47.3e
[10:01] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:01] {Threei}  why would market spike on that
[10:03] {Threei}  did they just announce QE5?
[10:05] {Threei}  and then canceled it?
[10:05] {ese} daaaaaaaa arna stopped even .41 +.01
[10:05] {dino} qe5 squared
[10:05] {Threei}  lol
[10:05] {ese} lets see what happens with pnc
[10:05] {Threei}  *(ES) SPANISH 10-YEAR GOV'T YIELD HITS FRESH EMU HIGH ABOVE 6.78%
[10:05] {Threei}  guys, it's over
[10:05] {Threei}  world ends this week
[10:06] {Threei}  let's make some money to buy last drinks
[10:06] {dino} maybe germany will pick up our tab
[10:06] {Threei}  hehe
[10:06] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .15 break
[10:07] {ese} daaaaaaaaaaaa
[10:07] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[10:07] {Threei}  target .45
[10:07] {dino} pru s .99
[10:08] {Threei}  1:1
[10:09] {Threei}  stop for balance .13
[10:10] {Threei}  scalpers win
[10:10] {ese} caaaaaaa....monnnnnnnn...pnc
[10:10] {Threei}  my feeling is though, we are in downtrend for the foreseeable future
[10:10] {ese} you might have liked this one dino
[10:10] {Threei}  don't play bounces for now, other than maybe quick scalps
[10:11] {dino} pnc ese?
[10:11] {Threei}  Spain bailout clearly failed to calm down markets, panic on horizon
[10:11] {ese} ya couldn't have told me that 20 min ago.......sheeesh
[10:11] {cipher} AAPL L .568.32
[10:11] {ese} ya
[10:11] {ese} pnc
[10:11] {ese} am L .48
[10:12] {ese} it's driving me nuts doesn't seem to want above .50 ......but if it does skys the limit
[10:12] {nemo} watch tna above .50
[10:13] {ese} will do
[10:13] {cipher} out aapl 569.47 +1.15
[10:13] {ese} nice C
[10:13] {cipher} ty
[10:13] {dino} gj
[10:13] {ese} 10 grand of that?
[10:13] {cipher} I wish
[10:14] {cipher} not up to your size yet ese
[10:14] {Beau} excellent c
[10:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .30 break
[10:14] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[10:15] {cipher} in tza
[10:15] {Threei}  go ahead market, panic
[10:16] {dino} feels like it
[10:16] {ese} no no no    don't do that just yet am still L pnc....gonna give it one last shot here
[10:17] {nemo} tna bounce here
[10:17] {ese} am up a cent.....
[10:17] {Threei}  ugh
[10:17] {Threei}  no go
[10:18] {Threei}  first stop
[10:18] {cipher} tza -.09
[10:18] {nemo} 1/2 out .52
[10:18] {nemo} sorry late on notice
[10:19] {nemo} today is a pain in the ass
[10:19] {nemo} stop under .30
[10:19] {ese} auch du miya......get on with it
[10:19] {nemo} stop under .40 spy
[10:19] {cipher} tza 2nd try .23
[10:19] {nemo} out
[10:20] {nemo} think I'd rather play with a porcupine than trade today
[10:20] {Threei}  rinse TZA
[10:20] {Threei}  dirty scoundrel
[10:20] {cipher} out 1/2 tza .37 +.14
[10:20] {Threei}  1:1 now
[10:20] {ese} pfhissssssssssssssssssss ...thats the sound of the air being let out of my sails
[10:20] {Threei}  wtg cipher
[10:21] {ese} C...your hot today
[10:21] {nemo} wow, and I thought it was the sound of the wind between your ears
[10:21] {cipher} out tza .42 +.19
[10:21] {ese} thats exactly what it was.........ego taking a blow
[10:22] {dino} cov pru .87, +.12
[10:22] {dino} gj cipher
[10:22] {cipher} thx
[10:22] {ese} see even dino's taking a blow ....hat would normally be $1.12
[10:23] {dino} lol
[10:23] {Threei}  lol
[10:23] {nemo} l upro .91
[10:23] {nemo} 1/2 .04
[10:24] {nemo} stop .74
[10:24] {dino} fosl sm l .43 ave
[10:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .30 break
[10:26] {nemo} 1/4 more .14
[10:26] {Threei}  trying for pullback entry
[10:26] {nemo} out under spy .40
[10:27] {dino} out fosl .84 ave +.41
[10:27] {Threei}  wtg
[10:27] {dino} ty
[10:27] {Threei}  dino is half back to his normal self
[10:27] {Threei}  see ese, all is not lost
[10:29] {cipher} aapl l 568.47
[10:29] {nemo} dino is likely the most "normal" of us all
[10:30] {Threei}  why would you insult him like that
[10:30] {Threei}  half out TZA
[10:30] {Threei}  .39
[10:30] {nemo} ok, the least "abnormal"
[10:30] {Threei}  scalpers be free
[10:31] {nemo} out spy
[10:31] {nemo} well, upro
[10:31] {Threei}  got the rythm right this time: it bounces, pauses, then drops sharply
[10:31] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[10:31] {dino} normal is a stretch for me
[10:31] {Threei}  got stop back and then some
[10:31] {Threei}  stop to .35 for the last piece
[10:32] {cipher} tna l .85
[10:33] {Threei}  stop to .39
[10:34] {Threei}  NAV court rules against it
[10:35] {cipher} out 1/2 tza .99
[10:37] {cipher} out rest tza flat
[10:37] {cipher} sorry tna
[10:38] {dino} nav, you sure?, not responding
[10:38] {nemo} long spxu .31
[10:38] {Threei}  Navistar International Corp US Court said to strike down a diesel engine rule that was beneficial to Navistar
[10:38] {scottie} out TZA +.30 ty
[10:38] {Threei}  out last piece
[10:39] {Threei}  .63
[10:39] {Threei}  welcome scottie
[10:39] {Threei}  nailed this stage of panic perfectly
[10:40] {Threei}  and determined whole scenario for today correctly... which is pleasant
[10:40] {cipher} l ibm .56
[10:41] {dino} nav sm s .60 bstop .76
[10:41] {nemo} out spxu
[10:41] {cipher} out 1/2 .79
[10:41] {cipher} out in full .90
[10:42] {dino} stop nav
[10:42] {ese} L  pnc avg .48
[10:43] {cipher} l aapl 569.47
[10:44] {cipher} l tna .03
[10:46] {cipher} out 1/2 tna .21
[10:46] {dino} fosl sm l ave .55
[10:47] {cipher} out 1/2 aapl 570.60 +1.13
[10:47] {ese} something or someone is holding this thing up at .50
[10:47] {cipher} out 1/4 more tna .34
[10:48] {Threei}  visual http://goo.gl/fsxsj
[10:49] {cipher} out rest tna .50
[10:49] {cipher} out aaple +1.52
[10:49] {Threei}  wtg
[10:50] {dino} out fosl .12, +.57
[10:50] {cipher} thx for ideas
[10:50] {cipher} cya tomorrow
[10:50] {dino} gj cipher
[10:51] {Threei}  take care cipher, great job
[10:51] {ese} am outta here catch you all tomorrow.....will montor pnc rest of the day
[10:52] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:52] {thomcbell} long setup FIO 18.09 break if holding 17.98 half lot
[10:57] {thomcbell} fio 1:1ish
[10:57] {thomcbell} lol
[11:00] {dino} sure now nav drops
[11:01] {Threei}  it finally read its own news
[11:02] {thomcbell} fio 1:1
[11:02] {thomcbell} sold 1/3
[11:02] {Threei}  nice one
[11:05] {thomcbell} offering 18.30 for 1/3
[11:05] {scottie} FIO +.20 thanks tbell
[11:05] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Constancio: no need for a full scale fiscal union before setting up a banking union- Expect Spain residential real estate as still 15% over priced and will decline further. - Not expecting a Greece exit.
[11:06] {Threei}  hmmm... they are all so good at this stand up comedy thing... let me try my hadn at it too:
[11:06] {Threei}  Not expecting a Greece exit but fully expecting Greece to exit unexpectedly
[11:06] {Threei}  how am I doing so far?
[11:09] {scottie} good enough to rule the world
[11:09] {Threei}  ty
[11:10] {thomcbell} cleaning up fio here
[11:10] {dino} gj
[11:13] {Threei}  lol:
[11:13] {Threei}  I am incredibly bullish, this is the end of the world as we know it, and the world as we know it sucks
[11:14] {Threei}  makes sense actually, doesn't it
[11:18] {scottie} FAZ  .80 ?
[11:19] {Threei}  51/49
[11:20] {scottie} ok
[11:22] {thomcbell} wow
[11:23] {Threei}  no news
[11:23] {nemo} spy bottomed at WPP
[11:24] {Threei}  but Italy just said "I am next":
[11:24] {Threei}  (IT) Italy Deputy Fin Min Grilli: Italy can contain the effects of the crisis
[11:24] {thomcbell} lol
[11:26] {thomcbell} fio shaping up here
[11:27] {thomcbell} not playing but looks decent thru 18.31 with a 18.14 stop
[11:28] {thomcbell} slw a real leader in precious metal space today
[11:28] {thomcbell} lumbering ones not so much nem and abx
[11:32] {Threei}  PIMCO ?@PIMCO
[11:32] {Threei}  GROSS: German Bunds join the maelstrom. Very few scenarios in which they do well. Only German exit favors Bunds.
[11:34] {dino} qcor spike
[11:35] {dino} qcor sm s .00
[11:36] {dino} stopped -.33
[11:39] {dino} qcor sm s .25
[11:41] {dino} cov qcor .90, +.35
[11:41] {Threei}  trading jabs :)
[11:42] {dino} yeah
[12:00] {dino} ugh qcor. phone call distractcted me'
[12:00] {dino} taking break
[12:13] {nemo} lokk for upro and tna here
[12:17] {Threei}  lost in the shuffle is Cyprus asking for a bailout yesterday
[12:17] {Threei}  only lazy doesn't it seems
[12:18] {nemo} long tna .81
[12:18] {nemo} stop .64
[12:21] {nemo} 1/2 .96
[12:21] {Threei}  nice
[12:22] {nemo} confluence levels
[12:22] {nemo} stop .79 lunchtime could get algo'd
[12:25] {nemo} offering .15
[12:26] {nemo} stop to .84
[12:33] {nemo} arguably 46.00 tna is one of your favorite entries vad
[12:34] {Threei}  something doesn't feel right
[12:34] {Threei}  can't quite put a finger on it
[12:36] {nemo} c'mon baby
[12:38] {nemo} 1/4 more ka-frickin'-ching
[12:38] {nemo} too much work at lunchtime though
[12:39] {nemo} stop to .00
[12:45] {nemo} interesting, should get stopped out, but spy dropping faster than iwm
[12:45] {nemo} arguably, it's a long again here
[12:46] {nemo} tna that is
[12:48] {nemo} spy at swing low
[12:48] {nemo} 132.00 is weekly R1
[12:49] {nemo} 132.01 actually
[12:53] {Threei}  feels to me like such a narrow range, there is just no real way to tell which way it resolves
[12:54] {nemo} see if spy holds 132
[12:57] {nemo} upro long if spy breaks .05
[13:00] {dino} gut says resolves downward
[13:00] {nemo} i'm just looking at the charts
[13:01] {nemo} gs weak, that's not good
[13:01] {Threei}  my gut says downward too, and charts are mute at this point
[13:01] {nemo} for me, spy just bounced off weekly R1 and iwm looks bull flag
[13:02] {nemo} maybe not too far, but...
[13:04] {Threei}  so, you think we have a solid reasons to be all emotional and flared up?
[13:04] {Threei}  Police opens fire as Polish football fans attack Russian fans marching through Warsaw; at least 3 injured
[13:04] {nemo} I liked the Buddhists against the Muslims in Myanamar yesterday
[13:11] {nemo} 1/4 out .06
[13:12] {nemo} 1/4 more .26
[13:12] {dino} gut wrong so far
[13:12] {nemo} now you got cup and handles on spy and IWM
[13:13] {nemo} nobody believed me?
[13:13] {nemo} wtf
[13:13] {Threei}  no news
[13:13] {Threei}  yet
[13:13] {dino} :/
[13:13] {nemo} took 1/4 .46-.41
[13:13] {nemo} frickin slippage
[13:15] {nemo} stop is .28 spy
[13:20] {nemo} next target is .57 on spy, stop still .28
[13:24] {scottie} cnc reverse c&h?
[13:25] {nemo} next pop under .28 I'm out
[13:25] {Threei}  kind of
[13:26] {nemo} out .33
[13:26] {nemo} on upro
[13:32] {nemo} fslr
[13:32] {nemo} wtf
[13:32] {Threei}  news
[13:32] {Threei}  First Solar Inc. Hearing CLSA makes cautious comments (timing uncertain)- CLSA notes today's announcement of a temporary ramp up of German production is a near term positive, but FSLR still faces margin pressures on Chinese competition.
[13:34] {Threei}  ZNGA...
[13:34] {Threei}  these social network stokcs are unmitigated disaster
[14:07] {thomcbell} wow - imagine how abx would act if gold was down on the day
[14:08] {Threei}  no kidding
[14:08] {nemo} http://fwd4.me/12yL
[14:15] {nemo} things starting to look short
[14:26] {thomcbell} possible long setup there on abx vad thru 38.25?
[14:26] {Threei}  I am not a fun of this
[14:26] {Threei}  fan
[14:27] {thomcbell} ok - i bought it half lot - with 38.14 stop
[14:27] {thomcbell} target is 38.50
[14:30] {thomcbell} abx 1:1
[14:30] {thomcbell} 1/3 out
[14:35] {thomcbell} out on balance abx at 38.26
[14:37] {dino} bpt spike
[14:37] {thomcbell} this pfpt chart is shaping up
[14:38] {thomcbell} duh abx
[14:57] {Threei}  uh oh
[14:57] {Threei}  (IT) Italy PM Monti: Italy does not need a bailout now, will not need a bailout in the future
[14:57] {Threei}  took what, about 6 months in Spain case from similar statement to bailout? I bet will be faster in Utaly's case
[15:02] {dino} they all say the same thing, then a few weeks later they ask for $
[15:03] {dino} i give italy until july 4th, then they ask for $
[15:03] {Threei}  this fast you think?
[15:04] {Threei}  I thought they'd be able to hold till Kabor Day
[15:04] {Threei}  Labor
[15:04] {Threei}  depends on bond yields of course
[15:05] {scottie} jcp .20 ?
[15:06] {Threei}  not my cup of tea
[15:11] {Threei}  looking for selling toresume
[15:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .50 break
[15:13] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[15:20] {scottie} sold half at .60
[15:28] {Threei}  scalpers win :)
[15:28] {scottie} out at .54
[15:29] {dino} bi-polar markets. down big/up big
[15:29] {scottie} +.09 on first half and +.03 on second, ty Vad
[15:30] {Threei}  :)
[15:30] {dino} gj scottie
[15:30] {scottie} thanks dino
[15:58] {dptl} gn all
[15:59] {scottie} gn, see you tomorrow
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:59] {Threei}  great trading day
[15:59] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tonmorrow
[15:59] {scottie} I'm 6 on 7, thanks Vad
[16:00] {dino} great job scottie
[16:00] {dino} gn all
[16:00] {scottie} ty
[16:00] {Threei}  wtg :)

June 11 2012

We figured correctly that selling was going to be a major theme of the day. Market however dropped right frpm the open, with not as much as even attempting to rally first, so we got no good setups for shorting in the morning. Situation got more favorable later in the day so a few good ones came about on both long and short sides. Finished slightly up but not nearly as much as this kind of red days usually bring us.



Session Time: Mon Jun 11 00:00:00 2012
[09:02] {scottie} gm
[09:04] {Threei}  morning scottie
[09:19] {Threei}  hmmm... sleep-in is in vogue this week?
[09:20] {Threei}  I need to move my alarm 30 min later
[09:21] {scottie} You wake up pretty soon, I think
[09:24] {dino} gm
[09:24] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:25] {ese} gm
[09:25] {Beau} good morning all
[09:25] {dptl} gm
[09:25] {ese} B vad dino
[09:25] {ese} dp
[09:25] {Threei}  ese, beau, dp :)
[09:26] {Threei}  my working assumption: after morning dust settles, selling should become theme of the day
[09:27] {Threei}  market is off quite a bit from the overnight highs, and doubts about this next bailout are already front and ceter
[09:27] {Threei}  and I already got what I expect to be the best joke of the day:
[09:27] {Threei}  (ES) Spain to remain EFSF guarantor post-bailout - financial press
[09:27] {Threei}  Country that asked for 100B from EFSF and by many estimates needs 350-450B, remains that same EFSF guarantor?
[09:28] {Threei}  Seinfield's nervously smoking in the corner, that's some fierce competition on the stand-up comedy department.
[09:30] {Threei}  let's wait out first bout of volatility
[09:31] {Threei}  meanwhile, notice that FAZ performs better than TZA so far
[09:31] {Threei}  preobably will be our way to play the downside
[09:33] {ese} really dislike these gap up days
[09:33] {Threei}  wow
[09:33] {Threei}  that's some selloff right out of the gate
[09:34] {ese} yup
[09:34] {Threei}  impressive fear, for no news
[09:35] {Threei}  let's see if we get markert bounce to short into
[09:35] {Threei}  FAZ between .10 and .20 would be an entry
[09:36] {Threei}  for now looks like bounce in cards
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .95 break hl
[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:37] {Threei}  valid but with .95 sdtop
[09:37] {Threei}  .85
[09:38] {Threei}  change trigger to .90
[09:38] {Threei}  not ready yet
[09:40] {nemo} good morning
[09:40] {Threei}  nemo :)
[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .23
[09:41] {Threei}  stop under .15 scalpers, .10 day traders
[09:42] {Threei}  target .55
[09:43] {Threei}  wow
[09:43] {Threei}  still no support
[09:44] {ese} spyders trapped  more than a few takers this morning thats for sure......
[09:45] {Threei}  my expectation were set for selling, but nor right out of the gate and this intense
[09:46] {ese} spain
[09:47] {Threei}  spain is so done...
[09:47] {thomcbell} holy christmas - wynn!
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  34 break hl
[09:48] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:51] {Threei}  looks good
[09:51] {Threei}  should be 1:2, 1:3
[09:54] {Threei}  holding .90 on every pullback so far
[09:54] {Threei}  if loses it, switch to .80 - .90 setup
[09:54] {ese} cool L cvh .87.......and it just pops right up there
[09:55] {ese} what can i say ...some people just know how to live right
[09:56] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .85 break
[09:56] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:57] {Threei}  SPY lost another support
[09:58] {Threei}  so did FCX
[09:58] {thomcbell} fcx around the pivot is interesting to me long 33.53
[09:59] {ese} stop out cvh .06 +.19
[09:59] {Threei}  as skeptical as I was about this gap, I didn't expect it to sell with not as much as 1 minute of upward move
[10:00] {thomcbell} agreed
[10:00] {ese} double agree
[10:01] {thomcbell} aapl has fight today
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .40 break
[10:01] {Threei}  stop under .30
[10:01] {Threei}  target .90
[10:01] {Threei}  1:1
[10:02] {Threei}  1:2
[10:02] {Threei}  1:3
[10:02] {Threei}  stop for balance to .45
[10:03] {Threei}  OK
[10:03] {Threei}  not bad for the first worthy bounce
[10:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .85 break
[10:05] {Threei}  stop under .75
[10:05] {Threei}  clean double bottom
[10:05] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:07] {Threei}  come on SPY, raise your head
[10:07] {Threei}  grrr
[10:07] {Threei}  no go
[10:10] {Threei}  this immediate selling left us with no short setups as there was no slightest consolidation anywhere, and no longs work yet
[10:10] {Threei}  well, one did
[10:10] {Threei}  no sign of bottom still
[10:10] {Threei}  133 is not likely to holg
[10:10] {Threei}  hold
[10:12] {Threei}  IWM tries for DB again
[10:12] {Threei}  not sure it's worth the risk
[10:13] {Threei}  maybe after one more pullback and proof that it can hold .60
[10:15] {Threei}  not getting setups...
[10:18] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  46 break
[10:18] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:18] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:19] {Threei}  1:1
[10:20] {Threei}  stop to .01 for the balance
[10:21] {ese} L cvh .13
[10:22] {Threei}  changing my mind on target, 1:3
[10:22] {Threei}  1:2, 1/4 more out
[10:23] {ese} hmmmmmm
[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break hl
[10:23] {Threei}  stop .91 last piece LVS
[10:23] {Threei}  bidding .71
[10:24] {Threei}  IWM, if holds .60 of course'
[10:24] {Threei}  out LVS in full
[10:25] {Threei}  finally decent one
[10:26] {Threei}  sheesh IWM
[10:27] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  ,55 hl
[10:27] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:28] {ese} out cvh .27 +.14  gotta go catch ya tomorrow
[10:29] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:33] {Threei}  now CAT decided to break down
[10:34] {scottie} not for long
[10:34] {Threei}  yeah, leaving it alone, too hectic
[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .35 break
[10:38] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[10:39] {Threei}  (PT) Portugal Central Bank reiterates calls for a banking union in Europe; along with commonality of fiscal rules within the EMU
[10:39] {Threei}  isn't it funny
[10:39] {Threei}  weaker members insist on common banking
[10:39] {Threei}  stronger ones say, heck, for us to carry your burden?
[10:41] {Threei}  (EU) EU Official: Spanish funds may come from the EFSF rather than the ESM, via EFSF bonds, may later be taken over by the ESM
[10:43] {Threei}  sheesh
[10:44] {Threei}  I start seriously disliking this day
[10:44] {dino} yeah, feels like euro is ready to blow up
[10:45] {Threei}  yes, but normally I trade this turn of events very profitably
[10:45] {Threei}  and today leaves me with very few good setups
[10:45] {Threei}  even though my firat thought was:
[10:46] {Threei}  [09:26] {Threei} my working assumption: after morning dust settles, selling should become theme of the day
[10:47] {dino} call spike
[10:48] {dino} sm s .00
[10:51] {Threei}  markets are solidly in red now
[10:51] {Threei}  with no bounce in sight
[10:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .35 break
[10:58] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[11:02] {Threei}  1:1
[11:07] {Threei}  (ES) ECB's Coene: Spain bailout should prevent any further contagion.
[11:07] {Threei}  wanna bet?
[11:09] {dino} these guys are clueless
[11:09] {Threei}  they just say and do random things now
[11:09] {Threei}  panic mode
[11:10] {Threei}  things unravel before their very eyes and they can do squat about that
[11:17] {Threei}  nemo, what say you
[11:17] {Threei}  time for bounce?
[11:21] {thomcbell} coming right to pivot on spy here
[11:21] {Threei}  and TNA doesn;t make new low
[11:21] {Threei}  while SPY just did
[11:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .70 break
[11:21] {Threei}  aww
[11:21] {Threei}  too fast
[11:21] {Threei}  pullback
[11:21] {Threei}  in
[11:22] {Threei}  stop under day's low
[11:22] {Threei}  .58
[11:22] {Threei}  1:1
[11:22] {Threei}  half out
[11:22] {Threei}  stop to .65
[11:22] {Threei}  target 48.20
[11:23] {Threei}  1:2
[11:23] {Threei}  stop .69
[11:25] {Threei}  ok, out balance
[11:26] {Threei}  decent one anyway, don't want to guess about the next step
[11:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
[11:30] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[11:30] {Threei}  IMO, bounce time is here
[11:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  46 break
[11:33] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:33] {Threei}  IWM target 1:3
[11:33] {Threei}  LVS 1:4
[11:34] {Threei}  1:1 IWM
[11:35] {Threei}  stop to .45
[11:36] {Threei}  LVS 1:1
[11:37] {Threei}  stop to .97
[11:39] {Threei}  1:2 IWM
[11:40] {Threei}  LVS 1:2
[11:40] {Threei}  day-fixing set of trades
[11:41] {Threei}  IWM stop is .49 now, LVS .05
[11:46] {Threei}  done with both
[11:47] {scottie} +.21 on lvs thanks Vad
[11:48] {scottie} on IWM sorry
[11:49] {Threei}  :)
[11:50] {scottie} liking more my day with the last couple of trades
[11:51] {Threei}  yeah
[11:52] {Threei}  this sudden drop at the open kind of took away our trades
[11:59] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PASOK party leader Venezelos: Told Italy PM that the least favorable terms of the bailout deal for Greece need to be revised- Monti "appreciated" the request, brought up a bank deposit guarantee framework. ***Note that on May 27th, Venizelos reiterated proposal to soften Greece bailout terms; Says one year extension already received support from EU's Juncker.
[12:00] {Threei}  so, pro-bailout parties in Greece found their song to win election: thet took a page from Syritsa book and demand renegotiating terms
[12:00] {Threei}  never mind that they accepted draconian terms in the first place
[12:19] {Threei}  breakdown or bounce?
[12:23] {Threei}  anyone?
[12:23] {nemo} 132.50 is spy pivot
[12:24] {scottie} I'll bet $100 on bounce
[12:24] {Threei}  lol, twitter:
[12:24] {Threei}  Let me make sure I have this straight, a $125 billion bailout only buys us a 3 hour rally into resistance and a Facebook uptick? Tuff crowd
[12:24] {Threei}  rofl
[12:24] {nemo} yeah, saw that
[12:30] {scottie} TNA db?
[12:33] {Threei}  trying to gauge just that
[12:33] {Threei}  feels like slightly more probable than new lows
[12:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break hl
[12:33] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[12:35] {scottie} in .50
[12:35] {Threei}  wow... did you move it singlehandedly? :)
[12:38] {Threei}  1 cent to 1:1... come on
[12:39] {Threei}  1:1
[12:40] {scottie} half out +.10
[12:40] {scottie} stop ?
[12:41] {Threei}  .48
[12:45] {Threei}  1:2
[12:45] {Threei}  me is much much happier
[12:46] {scottie} 1/4 out .70
[12:46] {dino} gj
[12:47] {Beau} me too thx vad
[12:51] {Threei}  :)
[12:54] {scottie} out in full ty Vad
[12:54] {Threei}  yw
[12:55] {Threei}  SPY feels to me like more recovery in cards for now
[12:55] {Threei}  and probably eod selloff
[12:55] {Threei}  looking for a vehicle to try and ride this recovery part
[13:04] {Threei}  who missed an e-mail,
[13:04] {Threei}  http://blog.realitytrader.com/2012/06/three-kinds-of-crash-re-visited.html
[13:06] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
[13:07] {Threei}  If holds  .40  scalpers, .35 day traders
[13:15] {Threei}  half out
[13:25] {scottie} sold half at +.10 and the rest flat
[13:26] {Threei}  yup
[13:29] {Threei}  getting management down pretty well, scottie, eh?
[13:30] {scottie} improving...
[13:41] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Rehn: Need to map out steps to reach an 'economic union' - comments at European Parliament in Strasbourg- Now is the time for an economic and monetary union "version 2.0" - Comments that some sovereignty must be transferred for fiscal integration
[13:42] {Threei}  version 2 - because version worked so well, right?
[13:42] {Threei}  version 1
[13:43] {Threei}  give uo sovereignity for intergation - this is stuff that starts wars, you imbeciles
[13:43] {Threei}  I swear they won't quit until they get one
[13:50] {scottie} FAS db ?
[13:53] {Threei}  I don't feel confident about bounce
[13:54] {Threei}  SPY break of 133 should have brought much more upside before fizzling out
[13:54] {Threei}  dropping back under it and even retreating to day's low is very bearish
[14:17] {Threei}  huh
[14:17] {Threei}  (ES) International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) comments on Spain bailout deal; is unlikely to trigger CDS- Reminder: Earlier today saw some dealer chatter wondering whether the use of the ESM facility (therefore subordinating certain debt) would trigger credit default swaps payouts
[14:17] {Threei}  remember Greece ISDA scenario?
[14:17] {Threei}  same thing, first they said it's not a credit event
[14:18] {Threei}  in a few days they made u-turn
[14:18] {Threei}  .80 break FAZ
[14:18] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .80 break
[14:19] {Threei}  If holds  .70  scakpers, .65 day traders
[14:22] {Threei}  come on FAZ, no rinzing
[14:31] {Threei}  ugh
[14:31] {Threei}  no go
[14:38] {Threei}  Apple Inc Apple announces Passbook; combines various ticket apps in a virtual wallet; handling tickets and boarding passes; handles store cards as well like the Starbucks app - GPS enabled, allows movie tickets to be available when near theater etc; uses examples such as a Fandango ticket, or a ticket for a professional sports game
[14:39] {Threei}  I'll by Ipad when this app becomes reality:
[14:39] {Threei}  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a8Eimr-fm0
[14:42] {scottie} lol
[14:44] {Threei}  just a scalp:
[14:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  ABX  ,80 if stays above .75
[14:45] {Threei}  change to .75 break
[14:45] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[14:47] {Threei}  offer half .82
[14:59] {Threei}  out
[15:04] {scottie} wynn 100 ?
[15:05] {Threei}  I think so
[15:05] {Threei}  just keep size small
[15:05] {Threei}  pulp
[15:21] {scottie} wynn s 100.00 small
[15:21] {scottie} a bit aggreessive i think
[15:21] {scottie} stop .20
[15:21] {scottie} change to .15
[15:25] {Threei}  nice
[15:26] {scottie} out .85 + .15
[15:26] {scottie} too soon obviously
[15:49] {Threei}  no feeling whether we get another lef of panic selling
[15:49] {Threei}  some short covering is just as likely
[15:54] {Threei}  selling
[15:54] {Threei}  this market is so done
[15:55] {Threei}  if another round of bailouts can't keep it up anymore, what will
[15:56] {Threei}  smewhat happy about digging out of the hole, somewhat disappointed about not using nicely red day to its full potential
[15:57] {Threei}  OK... Tuesdays are usually better
[15:57] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:57] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:57] {scottie} I had a nice day, ty Vad
[15:57] {Threei}  :)
[15:58] {dptl} gn

Nemo's Findings Week of June 10th 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html


The week that was in IWM SPY:

• "The broken clock is right twice a day" principle struck this week (o.k., in my case-once) when I said in the video last week that the confluence of levels, on the IWM could serve as support much as a net, and they did.
• Perhaps more interestingly is that both SPY and IWM bottomed at, or within .$.10 of the monthly S1
• Notice SPY maintained the upward trend it began at the bottom, so, "The trend is your friend".  I'm not yet seeing definitive weakness on higher time frame charts
• We are in a short term channel, arguably Inverted Head & Shoulders on both IWM and SPY, the descending 50 day SMA likely first targets.
• Going out on a limb here for Monday:  we gap up massively...

On a more macro note:  It's all Europe all the time. A premise I hold, which is hardly original, is that political solutions are almost NEVER the best operational solution for a given problem.  

Europe faces the decision to either subsume their cultural identities, which have been formed over centuries, to create a monetary/fiscal union where each culture answers to some central authority, or face some type of break up of the Euro.  Whether it's the weaker countries leaving, the stronger countries leaving, or the total dissolution, is up to the powers to be...which brings me back to my premise... 

"But Captain, I think the deck chairs would look better this way..."

Here are the images for next week: